climate change in the philippines essay brainly

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Introduction

Climate change is happening now. Evidences being seen support the fact that the change cannot simply be explained by natural variation. The most recent scientific assessments have confirmed that this warming of the climate system since the mid-20th century is most likely to be due to human activities; and thus, is due to the observed increase in greenhouse gas concentrations from human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels and land use change. Current warming has increasingly posed quite considerable challenges to man and the environment, and will continue to do so in the future. Presently, some autonomous adaptation is taking place, but we need to consider a more pro-active adaptation planning in order to ensure sustainable development.

What does it take to ensure that adaptation planning has a scientific basis? Firstly, we need to be able to investigate the potential consequences of anthropogenic or human induced climate change and to do this, a plausible future climate based on a reliable and accurate baseline (or present) climate must be constructed. This is what climate scientists call a climate change scenario. It is a projection of the response of the climate system to future emissions or concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and is simulated using climate models. Essentially, it describes possible future changes in climate variables (such as temperatures, rainfall, storminess, winds, etc.) based on baseline climatic conditions.

The climate change scenarios outputs (projections) are an important step forward in improving our understanding of our complex climate, particularly in the future. These show how our local climate could change dramatically should the global community fail to act towards effectively reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate Change Scenarios

As has been previously stated, climate change scenarios are developed using climate models (UNFCCC). These models use mathematical representations of the climate system, simulating the physical and dynamical processes that determine global/regional climate. They range from simple, one-dimensional models to more complex ones such as global climate models (known as GCMs), which model the atmosphere and oceans, and their interactions with land surfaces. They also model change on a regional scale (referred to as regional climate models), typically estimating change in areas in grid boxes that are approximately several hundred kilometers wide. It should be noted that GCMs/RCMs provide only an average change in climate for each grid box, although realistically climates can vary considerably within each grid. Climate models used to develop climate change scenarios are run using different forcings such as the changing greenhouse gas concentrations. These emission scenarios known as the SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to give the range of plausible future climate. These emission scenarios cover a range of demographic, societal, economic and technological storylines. They are also sometimes referred to as emission pathways. Table 1 presents the four different storylines (A1, A2, B1 and B2) as defined in the IPCC SRES.

Climate change is driven by factors such as changes in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosols, land cover and radiation, and their combinations, which then result in what is called radiative forcing (positive or warming and negative or cooling effect). We do not know how these different drivers will specifically affect the future climate, but the model simulation will provide estimates of its plausible ranges.

A number of climate models have been used in developing climate scenarios. The capacity to do climate modeling usually resides in advanced meteorological agencies and in international research laboratories for climate modeling such as the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research of the UK Met Office (in the United kingdom), the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (in the United States), the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (in Germany), the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (in Canada), the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (in Australia), the Meteorological Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency (in Japan), and numerous others. These centers have been developing their climate models and continuously generate new versions of these models in order address the limitations and uncertainties inherent in models.

For the climate change scenarios in the Philippines presented in this Report, the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) model was used. It is a PC-based regional climate model developed at the UK Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research to facilitate impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments in developing countries where capacities to do modeling are limited. Two time slices centered on 2020 (2006-2035) and 2050 (2036-2065) were used in the climate simulations using three emission scenarios; namely, the A2 (high-range emission scenario), the A1B (medium- range emission scenario) and the B2 (low-range emission scenario).

The high-range emission scenario connotes that society is based on self-reliance, with continuously growing population, a regionally-oriented economic development but with fragmented per capita economic growth and technological change. On the other hand, the mid-range emission scenario indicates a future world of very rapid economic growth, with the global population peaking in mid-century and declining thereafter and there is rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies with energy generation balanced across all sources. The low-range emission scenario, in contrast, indicates a world with local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, with continuously increasing global population, but at a rate lower than of the high-range, intermediate levels of economic development, less rapid and more diverse technological change but oriented towards environment protection and social equity.

To start the climate simulations or model runs, outputs (climate information) from the relatively coarse resolution GCMs are used to provide high resolution (using finer grid boxes, normally 10km-100km) climate details, through the use of downscaling techniques. Downscaling is a method that derives local to regional scale (10km-100km x 10km-100km grids) information from larger-scale models (150km-300km x 150km-300km grids) as shown in Fig.1. The smaller the grid, the finer is the resolution giving more detailed climate information.

The climate simulations presented in this report used boundary data that were from the ECHAM4 and HadCM3Q0 (the regional climate models used in the PRECIS model software).

How were the downscaling techniques applied using the PRECIS model?

To run regional climate models, boundary conditions are needed in order to produce local climate scenarios. These boundary conditions are outputs of the GCMs. For the PRECIS model, the following boundary data and control runs were used:

For the high-range scenario, the GCM boundary data used was from ECHAM4. This is the 4th generation coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model, which uses a comprehensive parameterization package developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany. Downscaling was to a grid resolution of 25km x 25km; thus, allowing more detailed regional information of the projected climate. Simulated baseline climate used for evaluation of the models capacity of reproducing present climate was the 1971-2000 model run. Its outputs were compared with the 1971-2000 observed values.

For the mid-range scenario, the GCM boundary data was from the HadCM3Q0 version 3 of the coupled model developed at the Hadley Centre. Downscaling was also to a grid resolution of 25km x 25km and the same validation process was undertaken.

For running the low-range scenario, the same ECHAM4 model was used. However, the validation process was only for the period of 1989 to 2000 because the available GCM boundary data in the model was limited to this period.

The simulations for all 3 scenarios were for three periods; 1971 to 2000, 2020 and 2050. The period 1971 to 2000 simulation is referred to as the baseline climate, outputs of which are used to evaluate the models capacity of reproducing present climate (in other words, the control run). By comparing the outputs (i.e., temperature and rainfall) with the observed values for the 1971 to 2000 period, the models ability to realistically represent the regional climatological features within the country is verified. The differences between the outputs and the observed values are called the biases of the model. The 2020 and 2050 outputs are then mathematically corrected, based on the comparison of the models performance.

The main outputs of the simulations for the three SRES scenarios (high-range, mid-range and low-range) are the following:

• projected changes in seasonal and annual mean temperature
• projected changes in minimum and maximum temperatures
• projected changes in seasonal rainfall and
• projected frequency of extreme events

The seasonal variations are as follows:

• the DJF (December, January, February or northeast monsoon locally known as amihan) season
• the MAM (March, April, May or summer) season
• the JJA (June, July, August or southwest monsoon season, or habagat) season and
• the SON (September, October, November or transition from southwest to northeast monsoon) season

On the other hand, extreme events are defined as follows:

• extreme temperature (assessed as number of days with maximum temperature greater than 35°C, following the threshold values used in other countries in the Asia Pacific region)
• dry days (assessed as number of dry days or day with rainfall equal or less than 2.5mm/day, following the World Meteorological Organization standard definition of dry days used in a number of countries) and
• extreme rainfall (assessed as number of days with daily rainfall greater than 300mm, which for wet tropical areas, like the Philippines, is considerably intense that could trigger disastrous events).

How were the uncertainties in the modeling simulations dealt with?

Modeling of our future climate always entails uncertainties. These are inherent in each step in the simulations/modeling done because of a number of reasons. Firstly, emissions scenarios are uncertain. Predicting emissions is largely dependent on how we can predict human behavior, such as changes in population, economic growth, technology, energy availability and national and international policies (which include predicting results of the international negotiations on reducing greenhouse gas emissions). Secondly, current understanding of the carbon cycle and of sources and sinks of non-carbon greenhouse gases are still incomplete. Thirdly, consideration of very complex feedback processes in the climate system in the climate models used can also contribute to the uncertainties in the outputs generated as these could not be adequately represented in the models.

But while it is difficult to predict global greenhouse gas emission rates far into the future, it is stressed that projections for up to 2050 show little variation between different emission scenarios, as these near-term changes in climate are strongly affected by greenhouse gases that have already been emitted and will stay in the atmosphere for the next 50 years. Hence, for projections for the near-term until 2065, outputs of the mid-range emission scenario are presented in detail in this Report.

Ideally, numerous climate models and a number of the emission scenarios provided in the SRES should be used in developing the climate change scenarios in order to account for the limitations in each of the models used, and the numerous ways global greenhouse gas emissions would go. The different model outputs should then be analyzed to calculate the median of the future climate projections in the selected time slices. By running more climate models for each emission scenarios, the higher is the statistical confidence in the resulting projections as these constitute the ensemble representing the median values of the model outputs.

The climate projections for the three emission scenarios were obtained using the PRECIS model only due to several constraints and limitations. These constraints and limitations are:

Access to climate models: at the start, PAGASA had not accessed climate models due to computing and technical capacity requirements needed to run them;

Time constraints: the use of currently available computers required substantial computing time to run the models (measured in weeks and months). This had been partly addressed under the capacity upgrading initiatives being implemented by the MDGF Joint Programme which include procurement of more powerful computers and acquiring new downscaling techniques. Improved equipment and new techniques have reduced the computing time requirements to run the models. However, additional time is still needed to run the models using newly acquired downscaling techniques; and

The PAGASA strives to improve confidence in the climate projections and is continuously exerting efforts to upgrade its technical capacities and capabilities. Models are run as soon as these are acquired with the end-goal of producing an ensemble of the projections. Updates on the projections, including comparisons with the current results, will be provided as soon as these are available.

What is the level of confidence in the climate projections?

The IPCC stresses that there is a large degree of uncertainty in predicting what the future world will be despite taking into account all reasonable future developments. Nevertheless, there is high confidence in the occurrence of global warming due to emissions of greenhouse gases caused by humans, as affirmed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Global climate simulations done to project climate scenarios until the end of the 21st century indicate that, although there are vast differences between the various scenarios, the values of temperature increase begin to diverge only after the middle of this century (shown in Fig.3). The long lifetimes of the greenhouse gases (in particular, that of carbon dioxide) already in the atmosphere is the reason for this behavior of this climate response to largely varying emission scenarios.

Model outputs that represent the plausible local climate scenarios in this Report are indicative to the extent that they reflect the large-scale changes (in the regional climate model used) modified by the projected local conditions in the country.

It also should be stressed further that confidence in the climate change information depends on the variable being considered (e.g., temperature increase, rainfall change, extreme event indices, etc.). In all the model runs regardless of emission scenarios used, there is greater confidence in the projections of mean temperature than that of the others. On the other hand, projections of rainfall and extreme events entail consideration of convective processes which are inherently complex, and thus, limiting the degree of confidence in the outputs.

What are the possible applications of these model-generated climate scenarios?

Climate scenarios are commonly required in climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments to provide alternative views of future conditions considered likely to affect society, systems and sectors, including a quantification of climate risks, challenges and opportunities. climate scenario outputs could be used in any of the following:.

• to illustrate projected climate change in a given administrative region/province
• to provide data for impact/adaptation assessment studies
• to communicate potential consequences of climate change (e.g., specifying a future changed climate to estimate potential shifts in say, vegetation, species threatened or at risk of extinction, etc.) and
• for strategic planning (e.g., quantifying projected sea level rise and other climate changes for the design of coastal infrastructure/defenses such as sea walls, etc.)

Current Climate and Observed Trends

Current climate change in the philippines.

The world has increasingly been concerned with the changes in our climate due largely to adverse impacts being seen not just globally, but also in regional, national and even, local scales. In 1988, the United Nations established the IPCC to evaluate the risks of climate change and provide objective information to governments and various communities such as the academe, research organizations, private sector, etc. The IPCC has successively done and published its scientific assessment reports on climate change, the first of which was released in 1990. These reports constitute consensus documents produced by numerous lead authors, contributing authors and review experts representing Country Parties of the UNFCCC, including invited eminent scientists in the field from all over the globe.

In 2007, the IPCC made its strongest statement yet on climate change in its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), when it concluded that the warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and that most of the warming during the last 50 years or so (e.g., since the mid-20th century) is due to the observed increase in greenhouse gas concentrations from human activities. It is also very likely that changes in the global climate system will continue into the future, and that these will be larger than those seen in our recent past (IPCC, 2007a).

Fig.4 shows the 0.74 C increase in global mean temperature during the last 150 years compared with the 1961-1990 global average. It is the steep increase in temperature since the mid-20th century that is causing worldwide concern, particularly in terms of increasing vulnerability of poor developing countries, like the Philippines, to adverse impacts of even incremental changes in temperatures.

The IPCC AR4 further states that the substantial body of evidence that support this most recent warming includes rising surface temperature, sea level rise and decrease in snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere (shown in Fig.5).

Additionally, there have been changes in extreme events globally and these include;

• widespread changes in extreme temperatures observed;
• cold days, cold nights and frost becoming less frequent;
• hot days, hot nights and heat waves becoming more frequent; and
• observational evidence for an increase of intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since about 1970, correlated with increases of tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs).

However, there are differences between and within regions. For instance, in the Southeast Asia region which includes Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, among others, temperature increases have been observed; although magnitude varies from one country to another. Changes in rainfall patterns, characteristically defined by changes in monsoon performance, have also been noted. Analysis of trends of extreme daily events (temperatures and rainfall) in the Asia Pacific region (including Australia and New Zealand, and parts of China and Japan) also indicate spatial coherence in the increase of hot days, warm nights and heat waves, and the decrease of cold days, cold nights and frost; although, there is no definite direction of rainfall change across the entire region (Manton et. al., 2001).

Current Climate Trends in the Philippines

The Philippines, like most parts of the globe, has also exhibited increasing temperatures as shown in Fig.6 below. The graph of observed mean temperature anomalies (or departures from the 1971-2000 normal values) during the period 1951 to 2010 indicate an increase of 0.648 C or an average of 0.0108 C per year-increase.

The increase in maximum (or daytime) temperatures and minimum (or night time) temperatures are shown in Fig.7 and Fig.8. During the last 60 years, maximum and minimum temperatures are seen to have increased by 0.36 ºC and 1.0°C, respectively.

Analysis of trends of tropical cyclone occurrence or passage within the so-called Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) show that an average of 20 tropical cyclones form and/or cross the PAR per year. The trend shows a high variability over the decades but there is no indication of increase in the frequency. However, there is a very slight increase in the number of tropical cyclones with maximum sustained winds of greater than 150kph and above (typhoon category) being exhibited during El NiÑo event (See Fig.10).

Moreover, the analysis on tropical cyclone passage over the three main islands (Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao), the 30-year running means show that there has been a slight increase in the Visayas during the 1971 to 2000 as compared with the 1951 to 1980 and 1960-1990 periods (See Fig.11).

To detect trends in extreme daily events, indices had been developed and used. Analysis of extreme daily maximum and minimum temperatures (hot-days index and cold-nights index, respectively) show there are statistically significant increasing number of hot days but decreasing number of cool nights (as shown in Fig.12 and Fig.13). 

However, the trends of increases or decreases in extreme daily rainfall are not statistically significant; although, there have been changes in extreme rain events in certain areas in the Philippines. For instance, intensity of extreme daily rainfall is already being experienced in most parts of the country, but not statistically significant (see in Fig.14). Likewise, the frequency has exhibited an increasing trend, also, not statistically significant (as shown in Fig.15).

The rates of increases or decreases in the trends are point values (i.e., specific values in the synoptic weather stations only) and are available at PAGASA, if needed.

Climate Projections

Projections on seasonal temperature increase and rainfall change, and total frequency of extreme events nationally and in the provinces using the mid-range scenario outputs are presented in this chapter. A comparison of these values with the high- and low- range scenarios in 2020 and 2050 is provided in the technical annexes.

It is to be noted that all the projected changes are relative to the baseline (1971-2000) climate. For example, a projected 1.0 C-increase in 2020 in a province means that 1.0 C is added to the baseline mean temperature value of the province as indicated in the table to arrive at the value of projected mean temperature. Therefore, if the baseline mean temperature is 27.8 C, then the projected mean temperature in the future is (27.8 C + 1.0 C) or 28.8 C.

In a similar manner, for say, a +25%-rainfall change in a province, it means that 25% of the seasonal mean rainfall value in the said province (from table of baseline climate) is added to the mean value. Thus, if the baseline seasonal rainfall is 900mm, then projected rainfall in the future is 900mm + 225mm or 1125mm.

This means that we are already experiencing some of the climate change shown in the findings under the mid-range scenario, as we are now into the second decade of the century. Classification of climate used the Corona's four climate types (Types I to IV), based on monthly rainfall received during the year. A province is considered to have Type I climate if there is a distinct dry and a wet season; wet from June to November and dry, the rest of the year. Type II climate is when there is no dry period at all throughout the year, with a pronounced wet season from November to February. On the other hand, Type III climate is when there is a short dry season, usually from February to April, and Type IV climate is when the rainfall is almost evenly distributed during the whole year. The climate classification in the Philippines is shown in Fig.16.

Seasonal Temperature Change

All areas of the Philippines will get warmer, more so in the relatively warmer summer months. Mean temperatures in all areas in the Philippines are expected to rise by 0.9 C to 1.1 C in 2020 and by 1.8 C to 2.2 C in 2050. Likewise, all seasonal mean temperatures will also have increases in these time slices; and these increases during the four seasons are quite consistent in all parts of the country. Largest temperature increase is projected during the summer (MAM) season.

Seasonal Rainfall Change

Generally, there is reduction in rainfall in most parts of the country during the summer (MAM) season. However, rainfall increase is likely during the southwest monsoon (JJA) season until the transition (SON) season in most areas of Luzon and Visayas, and also, during the northeast monsoon (DJF) season, particularly, in provinces/areas characterized as Type II climate in 2020 and 2050. There is however, generally decreasing trend in rainfall in Mindanao, especially by 2050.

There are varied trends in the magnitude and direction of the rainfall changes, both in 2020 and 2050. What the projections clearly indicate are the likely increase in the performance of the southwest and the northeast monsoons in the provinces exposed to these climate controls when they prevail over the country. Moreover, the usually wet seasons become wetter with the usually dry seasons becoming also drier; and these could lead to more occurrences of floods and dry spells/droughts, respectively.

Extreme Temperature Events

Hot temperatures will continue to become more frequent in the future. Fig.19 shows that the number of days with maximum temperature exceeding 35 C (following value used by other countries in the Asia Pacific region in extreme events analysis) is increasing in 2020 and 2050.

Extreme Rainfall Events

Heavy daily rainfall will continue to become more frequent, extreme rainfall is projected to increase in Luzon and Visayas only, but number of dry days is expected to increase in all parts of the country in 2020 and 2050. Figures 20 and 21 show the projected increase in number of dry days (with dry day defined as that with rainfall less than 2.5mm) and the increase in number of days with extreme rainfall (defined as daily rainfall exceeding 300 mm) compared with the observed (baseline) values, respectively.

Climate Projections for Provinces

Impacts of climate change.

Climate change is one of the most fundamental challenges ever to confront humanity. Its adverse impacts are already being seen and may intensify exponentially over time if nothing is done to reduce further emissions of greenhouse gases. Decisively dealing NOW with climate change is key to ensuring sustainable development, poverty eradication and safeguarding economic growth. Scientific assessments indicate that the cost of inaction now will be more costly in the future. Thus, economic development needs to be shifted to a low-carbon emission path.

In 1992, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted as the basis for a global response to the problem. The Philippines signed the UNFCCC on 12 June 1992 and ratified the international treaty on 2 August 1994. Presently, the Convention enjoys near-universal membership, with 194 Country Parties.

Recognizing that the climate system is a shared resource which is greatly affected by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, the UNFCCC has set out an overall framework for intergovernmental efforts to consider what can be done to reduce global warming and to cope with whatever temperature increases are inevitable. Its ultimate objective is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that will prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system.

Countries are actively discussing and negotiating ways to deal with the climate change problem within the UNFCCC using two central approaches. The first task is to address the root cause by reducing greenhouse gas emissions from human activity. The means to achieve this are very contentious, as it will require radical changes in the way many societies are organized, especially in respect to fossil fuel use, industry operations, land use, and development. Within the climate change arena, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is called mitigation.

The second task in responding to climate change is to manage its impacts. Future impacts on the environment and society are now inevitable, owing to the amount of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere from past decades of industrial and other human activities, and to the added amounts from continued emissions over the next few decades until such time as mitigation policies and actions become effective. We are therefore committed to changes in the climate. Taking steps to cope with the changed climate conditions both in terms of reducing adverse impacts and taking advantage of potential benefits is called adaptation.

What if the emissions are less or greater?

Responses of the local climate to the mid-range compared to the high- and low-range scenarios are as shown in Fig. 22 below. Although there are vast differences in the projections, the so-called temperature anomalies or difference in surface temperature increase begin to diverge only in the middle of the 21st century. As has already been stated, the climate in the next 30 to 40 years is greatly influenced by past greenhouse gas emissions. The long lifetimes of the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere, with the exception of methane (with a lifetime of only 13 years), will mean that it will take at least 30 to 40 years for the atmosphere to stabilize even if mitigation measures are put in place, not withstanding that in the near future, there could be some off-setting between sulfate aerosols (cooling effect) and the greenhouse gas concentrations (warming effect).

Likely impacts of Climate Change

A warmer world is certain to impact on systems and sectors; although, magnitude of impacts will depend on factors such as sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity to climate risks. In most cases, likely impacts will be adverse. However, there could be instances when likely impacts present opportunities for potential benefits as in the case of the so-called carbon fertilization effect in which increased carbon dioxide could lead to increased yield provided temperatures do not exceed threshold values for a given crop/cultivar.

Water Resources

In areas/regions where rainfall is projected to decrease, there will be water stress (both in quantity and quality), which in turn, will most likely cascade into more adverse impacts, particularly on forestry, agriculture and livelihood, health, and human settlement. Large decreases in rainfall and longer drier periods will affect the amount of water in watersheds and dams which provide irrigation services to farmers, especially those in rain fed areas, thereby, limiting agricultural production. Likewise, energy production from dams could also be rendered insufficient in those areas where rainfall is projected to decrease, and thus, could largely affect the energy sufficiency program of the country. Design of infrastructure, particularly of dams, will need to be re-visited to ensure that these will not be severely affected by the projected longer drier periods.

In areas where rainfall could be intense during wet periods, flooding events would follow and may pose danger to human settlements and infrastructure, in terms of landslides and mudslides, most especially, in geologically weak areas. Additionally, these flooding events could impact severely on public infrastructure, such as roads and bridges, including classrooms, evacuation centers, and hospitals.

Adaptive capacity is enhanced when impact and vulnerability assessments are used as the basis of strategic and long-term planning for adaptation. Assessments would indicate areas where critical water shortages can be expected leading to possible reduction of water available for domestic consumption, less irrigation service delivery, and possibly, decreased energy generation in dams. Note that the adverse impacts would cascade, so that long-term pro-active planning for these possible impacts is imperative in order to be able to respond effectively, and avoid maladaptations. A number of adaptation strategies should be considered. Among the wide array of cost effective options are rational water management, planning to avoid mismatch between water supply and demand through policies, upgrading/rehabilitation of dams where these are cost-effective, changes in cropping patterns in agricultural areas, establishing rain water collection facilities, where possible, and early warning systems.

Changes in rainfall regimes and patterns resulting to increase/decrease in water use and temperature increases could lead to a change in the forests ecosystem, particularly in areas where the rains are severely limited, and can no longer provide favorable conditions for certain highly sensitive species. Some of our forests could face die-backs. Additionally, drier periods and warmer temperatures, especially during the warm phase of El Nino events, could cause forest fires. A very likely threat to communities that largely depend on the ecological services provided by forests is that they may face the need to alter their traditions and livelihoods. This change in practices and behavior can lead to further degradation of the environment as they resort to more extensive agricultural production in already degraded areas.

Adverse impacts on forestry areas and resources could be expected to multiply in a future warmer world. The value of impact and vulnerability assessments could not be underscored. These assessments would help decision makers and stakeholders identify the best option to address the different impacts on forest areas, watersheds and agroforestry. Indigenous communities have to plan for climate-resilient alternative livelihoods. Thus, it is highly important to plan for rational forest management, particularly, in protected areas and in ancestral domains. One of the more important issues to consider is how to safeguard livelihoods in affected communities so as not to further exacerbate land degradation. Early warning systems in this sector will play a very important role in forest protection through avoidance and control/containment of forest fires.

Agriculture

Agriculture in the country could be severely affected by temperature changes coupled with changes in rain regimes and patterns. Crops have been shown to suffer decreases in yields whenever temperatures have exceeded threshold values and possibly result to spikelet sterility, as in the case of rice. The reduction in crop yield would remain unmitigated or even aggravated if management technologies are not put in place. Additionally, in areas where rain patterns change or when extreme events such as floods or droughts happen more often, grain and other agricultural produce could suffer shortfalls in the absence of effective and timely interventions. Tropical cyclones, particularly if there will be an increase in numbers and/or strength will continue to exert pressure on agricultural production.

Moreover, temperature increases coupled with rainfall changes could affect the incidence/outbreaks of pests and diseases, both in plants and animals. The pathways through which diseases and pests could be triggered and rendered most favorable to spread are still largely unknown. It is therefore important that research focus on these issues.

In the fisheries sub-sector, migration of fish to cooler and deeper waters would force the fisher folks to travel further from the coasts in order to increase their catch. Seaweed production, already being practiced as an adaptation to climate change in a number of poor and depressed coastal communities could also be impacted adversely.

Decreased yields and inadequate job opportunities in the agricultural sector could lead to migration and shifts in population, resulting to more pressure in already depressed urban areas, particularly in mega cities. Food security will largely be affected, especially if timely, effective and efficient interventions are not put in place. Insufficient food supply could further lead to more malnutrition, higher poverty levels, and possibly, heightened social unrest and conflict in certain areas in the country, and even among the indigenous tribes.

A careful assessment of primary and secondary impacts in this sector, particularly, in production systems and livelihoods will go a long way in avoiding food security and livelihood issues. Proactive planning (short- and long-term adaptation measures) will help in attaining poverty eradication, sufficient nutrition and secure livelihoods goals. There is a wide cross-section of adaptation strategies that could be put in place, such as horizontal and vertical diversification of crops, farmer field schools which incorporate use of weather/climate information in agricultural operations, including policy environment for subsidies and climate-friendly agricultural technologies, weather-based insurance, and others. To date, there has not been much R&D that has been done on inland and marine fisheries technologies, a research agenda on resilient marine sector could form part of long-term planning for this subsector.

Coastal Resources

The countrys coastal resources are highly vulnerable due to its extensive coastlines. Sea level rise is highly likely in a changing climate, and low-lying islands will face permanent inundation in the future. The combined effects of continued temperature increases, changes in rainfall and accelerated sea level rise, and tropical cyclone occurrences including the associated storm surges would expose coastal communities to higher levels of threat to life and property. The livelihood of these communities would also be threatened in terms of further stress to their fishing opportunities, loss of productive agricultural lands and saltwater intrusion, among others.

Impact and vulnerability assessment as well as adaptation planning for these coastal areas are of high priority. Adaptation measures range from physical structures such as sea walls where they still are cost-effective, to development/revision of land use plans using risk maps as the basis, to early warning systems for severe weather, including advisories on storm surge probabilities, as well as planning for and developing resilient livelihoods where traditional fishing/ agriculture are no longer viable.

Human health is one of the most vital sectors which will be severely affected by climate change. Incremental increases in temperatures and rain regimes could trigger a number of adverse impacts; in particular, the outbreak and spread of water-based and vector-borne diseases leading to higher morbidity and mortality; increased incidence of pulmonary illnesses among young children and cardiovascular diseases among the elderly. In addition, there could also be increased health risk from poor air quality especially in urbanized areas.

Surveillance systems and infrastructure for monitoring and prevention of epidemics could also be under severe stress when there is a confluence of circumstances. Hospitals and clinics, and evacuation centers and resettlement areas could also be severely affected under increased frequency and intensity of severe weather events.

Moreover, malnutrition is expected to become more severe with more frequent occurrences of extreme events that disrupt food supply and provision of health services. The services of the Department of Health will be severely tested unless early and periodic assessments of plausible impacts of climate change are undertaken.

Scientific assessments have indicated that the Earth is now committed to continued and faster warming unless drastic global mitigation action is put in place the soonest. The likely impacts of climate change are numerous and most could seriously hinder the realization of targets set under the Millennium Development Goals; and thus, sustainable development. Under the UNFCCC, Country Parties have common but differentiated responsibilities. All Country Parties share the common responsibility of protecting the climate system but must shoulder different responsibilities. This means that the developed countries including those whose economies are in transition (or the so-called Annex 1 Parties) have an obligation to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions based on their emissions at 1990 levels and provide assistance to developing countries (or the so-called non-Annex 1 Parties) to adapt to impacts of climate change.

In addition, the commitment to mitigate or reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by countries which share the responsibility of having historically caused this global problem, as agreed upon in the Kyoto Protocol, is dictated by the imperative to avoid what climate scientists refer to as the climate change tipping point. Tipping point is defined as the maximum temperature increase that could happen within the century, which could lead to sudden and dramatic changes to some of the major geophysical elements of the Earth. The effects of these changes could be varied from a dramatic rise in sea levels that could flood coastal regions to widespread crop failures. But, it still is possible to avoid them with cuts in anthropogenic greenhouse gases, both in the developed and developing countries, in particular, those which are now fast approaching the emission levels seen in rich countries.

In the Philippines, there are now a number of assisted climate change adaptation programmes and projects that are being implemented. Among these are the Millennium Development Goals Fund 1656: Strengthening the Philippines Institutional Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change funded by the Government of Spain, the Philippine Climate Change Adaptation Project (which aims to develop the resiliency and test adaptation strategies that will develop the resiliency of farms and natural resource management to the effects of climate change) funded by the Global Environmental Facility(GEF) through the World Bank, the Adaptation to Climate Change and Conservation of Biodiversity Project and the National Framework Strategy on Climate Change (envisioned to develop the adaptation capacity of communities), both funded by the GTZ, Germany.

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The Philippines: Leading the Way In the Climate Fight

The Philippines is one of the world's most vulnerable countries to climate disasters. With more than 7,100 islands and an estimated 36,298 kilometers of coastline, more than 60 percent of the Filipino population resides within the coastal zone and are acutely impacted by climate change . Dangers include food and fresh water scarcity, damage to infrastructure and devastating sea-level rise. However, with an innate understanding of the acute impacts of climate change, the Philippines is one of the world's strongest voices leading the global movement, combatting the problem and ultimately setting an example in adapting to climate change. The nation is acting with urency and commitment — passing legislation, promoting the use of renewable energy and focusing on country-wide conservation.

That is why former US Vice President Al Gore and The Climate Reality Project hosted the 31st Climate Reality Leadership Corps Training in Manila. The Climate Reality Leadership Corps is a global network of activists committed to taking on the climate crisis and working to solve the greatest challenge of our time. The decade-long program has worked with thousands of individuals, providing training in climate science, communications, and organizing to tell the story of climate change and inspire leaders to be agents of change in their local communities.

As the president and CEO of The Climate Reality Project, I am thrilled to contribute to the training of more than 700 new Climate Reality Leaders . These individuals from all over the world are leaders in their own communities, local governments, and businesses, who each care deeply about combatting climate change. At the training, they had the opportunity to learn from some of the best and brightest in their respective fields including Vice President Gore, Senator Loren Legarda, and Mayor of Tacloban Alfred Romualdez as well as world-class scientists, policy-makers, faith leaders, communicators, and technical specialists. These leaders offered specific guidance to trainees on the science of climate change, the cost of climate impacts, and the Paris Agreement that established the framework to transition to a global clean energy economy. After the training, trainees emerged as energized and skilled communicators with the knowledge, tools, and drive to take action, educating diverse global communities on the costs of carbon pollution and what can be done to solve the climate crisis.

Unsurprisingly, a large percentage of the trainees who attended the event are Filipino. This means that after the training, the great work on climate solutions already happening in the Philippines will accelerate.

Post-COP 21 this could not be more important.

The agreement reached in Paris was a monumental step in the effort to combat climate change with 195 nations agreeing upon an international plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions worldwide. However, now we have to turn words into action . Success is 100 percent dependent on its provisions being strengthened and implemented over time. Here in the Philippines, that means transitioning the energy economy from coal to renewable energy resources and working to adapt to the realities of climate change .

The Philippines has long relied on dirty coal for energy. In fact, a 300-megawatt coal-fired power plan came online only a few weeks after the Philippines signed the Paris agreement —  and this is the first of dozens of coal-fired power plants currently planned. Instead of supporting an energy resource we know is damaging, we must encourage banks and investors to embrace the revolution in renewable energy and encourage the growth and development of the clean energy economy here in the Philippines. The islands have with abundant renewable energy resources such as sun, wind, and ocean tides  —  now we need to prioritize investing in the infrastructure that turns these existing power sources into reality.

Furthermore, a significant part of the agreement signed by the Philippines in Paris requires conserving, enhancing, and restoring forests country-wide. Over half of the country's commitment to reducing greenhouse gasses is based on plans to avoid deforestation and promote reforestation. Strong support for programs such as the Department of Environment and Natural Resources efforts to restore the country's mangroves, including those running from eastern Samar to Southern Leyte, can make a significant difference in both the reduction of greenhouse gases and mitigating  the potential risk and destruction from future storms.

The Philippines is one of the best-positioned countries to make a difference in the climate fight. My hope for the Manila training is that the trainees leave inspired to lead change in their own communities, including supporting and advocating for the crucial policies and changes needed as laid out by the Paris Agreement. If so, I am confident that the Philippines can play a key role in leading the world in halting the progressive destruction of climate change and ensure a sustainable future for us all.

Click here to learn more about how you can make a difference in fighting climate change by becoming a Climate Reality Leader.

Filipinos, how are you adapting to climate change? You ask, we answer

Lucille l. sering.

Climate change is definitely upon us.  You don’t need to have a scientific mind to realize this, as recent natural calamities have shown in the Philippines, which also swept through some parts of Southeast Asia causing hundreds of casualties and losses to the economy: Typhoons Ondoy (International name: Ketsana) and Pepeng (Parma) in 2009 that flooded Metro Manila; Sendong (Washi) in 2011 which was recognized as the world’s deadliest storm in 2011; and Pablo (Bopha) in 2012.  Certainly, this is a little discomforting and makes us a little bit apprehensive about our future. To lessen our anxiety about this phenomenon, it helps to ask questions and get answers. It’s also good to know if something is being done to address the problem – and know that it is being done right.

The Aquino government has been very aggressive in its approach to address the problem of climate change.  It staffed the Climate Change Commission  (CCC) and made it functional. The CCC coordinates and provides oversight and policy advice on programs and projects on climate change. It is also tasked to craft the National Strategic Framework on Climate Change and the National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP). The latter serves as the country’s roadmap to effectively deal with the problem. The CCC also takes a strong stand in international negotiations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

To give more teeth to the government’s efforts to adapt to climate change, another law was passed creating the People’s Survival Fund (PSF). With an initial fund of P1 billion pesos (equivalent to US25 million), the special fund will be used for climate change adaptation programs and projects at the local level.

To ensure that the government stays on the right path, through the Climate Change Commission and the Department of Budget and Management, it has requested the World Bank to undertake a study to review government expenditures related to climate change and institutions with mandates to address climate change.

The study called the Climate Public Expenditure and Institutional Review or CPEIR, also provides a general backdrop of projected increases in global temperature and its corresponding effects:

• Globally, since 1950, ocean temperature increased by about 0.09 o C
• Sea levels have been rising by 15-20 cm from pre-industrial levels with the rate nearly doubling from that of the past century.
• Industrial activity was non-existent in the Philippines during this period and any GHG emission could only come from agricultural and other normal processes. However, as a small and archipelagic country, the Philippines is highly vulnerable to sea-level rise. The report cited a study (Dasgupta et al. 2009) which listed the cities of San Jose, Manila, Roxas and Cotabato among the top 10 most vulnerable cities in the East Asia and Pacific Region to sea-level rise.

Based on the study, climate change clearly poses a threat to human survival. It foretells of the submergence of coastal communities due to sea-level rise. It also projects the occurrence of frequent and stronger typhoons, and of prolonged, intense heat in the summers and heavy rains and flooding during rainy season. It also tells of the dire consequences of these natural catastrophes to human habitation, food supply, the degradation of ecosystem services and eventual extinction of some species. This clearly shows that climate change is a development issue that threatens the gains and economic development attained in past decades. Agriculture, for instance, which relies on a stable, regular weather pattern will be adversely affected, if such pattern is disrupted by climate change.

While the Philippines is not a major green house gas (GHG) emitter, the report projects that our country’s GHG emission will continue to increase in the years to come. This growth will be due to a growing economy, heightened urbanization, increased demand and use of energy and the expected increase in the number of vehicles, all of which are highly dependent on crude oil for energy.

Given the above, the report recommends several measures along three main lines:

• strengthening planning, execution, and financing framework for climate change
• enhancing leadership and accountability through monitoring, evaluation, and review of climate change policies and activities
• building capacity and managing change

The report, to be launched on June 25, 2013 in Manila, also calls on the government to address several barriers to effective implementation of the climate change agenda.

Meanwhile, a survey commissioned by the World Bank and conducted by the Social Weather Station finds that many Filipinos say they are now experiencing the effects of a changing climate. The survey looked into the level of knowledge of Filipinos about the impacts of climate change as well as their personal experience/s about it. We’ll soon share the results of this survey on www.worldbank.org/ph , but in the meantime, perhaps there are those who are still in the dark about how to adapt to a changing climate, or how the government is working to mitigate its effects.

If you have questions about this topic or would like to share some observations about your environment , please post them in the comments section of this blog. Join the conversation on Twitter by sending your feedback to @worldbankasia and to @CCCommissionPh with hashtag #askCCC and we'll make sure to respond to them. We hope to address all your concerns and will be selecting five of the most pressing questions and answer them in a short video called   5 Questions, 5 Minutes to be posted on www.worldbank.org/ph . Ask now!

Image courtesy of audiovisualjunkie through a Creative Commons license

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Philippines: Country Climate and Development Report 2022

Attachments.

Stronger Climate Action Will Support Sustainable Recovery and Accelerate Poverty Reduction in the Philippines

MANILA, November 09, 2022 – Climate change is exacting a heavy toll on Filipinos’ lives, properties, and livelihoods, and left unaddressed, could hamper the country’s ambition of becoming an upper middle-income country by 2040. However, the Philippines has many of the tools and instruments required to reduce damages substantially, according to the World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) for the Philippines, released today.

With 50 percent of its 111 million population living in urban areas, and many cities in coastal areas, the Philippines is vulnerable to sea level rise. Changes due to the variability and intensity of rainfall in the country and increased temperatures will affect food security and the safety of the population.

Multiple indices rank the Philippines as one of the countries most affected by extreme climate events. The country has experienced highly destructive typhoons almost annually for the past 10 years. Annual losses from typhoons have been estimated at 1.2 percent of GDP.

Climate action in the Philippines must address both extreme and slow-onset events. Adaptation and mitigation actions, some of which are already underway in the country, would reduce vulnerability and future losses if fully implemented.

“Climate impacts threaten to significantly lower the country’s GDP and the well-being of Filipinos by 2040. However, policy actions and investments – principally to protect valuable infrastructure from typhoons and to make agriculture more resilient through climate-smart measures -- could reduce these negative climate impacts by two-thirds,” said World Bank Vice President for East Asia and Pacific, Manuela V. Ferro.

The private sector has a crucial role to play in accelerating the adoption of green technologies and ramping up climate finance by working with local financial institutions and regulators.

“ The investments needed to undertake these actions are substantial, but not out of reach, ” said IFC Acting Vice President for Asia and the Pacific, John Gandolfo . “ The business leaders and bankers who embrace climate as a business opportunity and offer these low-carbon technologies, goods and services will be the front runners of our future. ”

The report also undertakes an in-depth analysis of challenges and opportunities for climate-related actions in agriculture, water, energy, and transport. Among the recommendations are:

• Avoiding new construction in flood-prone areas.
• Improving water storage to reduce the risk of damaging floods and droughts. This will also increase water availability.
• Extending irrigation in rainfed areas and promoting climate-smart agriculture practices such as Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD).
• Making social protection programs adaptive and scalable to respond to climate shocks.
• Removing obstacles that private actors face in scaling investments in renewable energy.
• Ensuring new buildings are energy efficient and climate resilient.

Many climate actions will make the Philippines more resilient while also contributing to mitigating climate change.

“The Philippines would benefit from an energy transition towards more renewable energy. Accelerated decarbonization would reduce electricity costs by about 20 percent below current levels which is good for the country’s competitiveness and would also dramatically reduce air pollution,” said Ferro.

Even with vigorous adaptation efforts, climate change will affect many people. Some climate actions may also have adverse effects on particular groups, such as workers displaced by the move away from high-emission activities. The report recommends that the existing social protection system in the country be strengthened and scaled up to provide support to affected sectors and groups.

World Bank Group Country Climate and Development Reports : The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) are new core diagnostic reports that integrate climate change and development considerations. They will help countries prioritize the most impactful actions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and boost adaptation while delivering on broader development goals. CCDRs build on data and rigorous research and identify main pathways to reduce GHG emissions and climate vulnerabilities, including the costs and challenges as well as benefits and opportunities from doing so. The reports suggest concrete, priority actions to support the low-carbon, resilient transition. As public documents, CCDRs aim to inform governments, citizens, the private sector, and development partners and enable engagements with the development and climate agenda. CCDRs will feed into other core Bank Group diagnostics, country engagements, and operations to help attract funding and direct financing for high-impact climate action.

• 10 Things You Should Know About the World Bank Group’s First Batch of Country Climate and Development Reports
• CCDR Video link

PRESS RELEASE NO: 2023/025/EAP

In Washington: Kym Smithies [email protected]

In Manila: David Llorito [email protected]

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Scoping Review of Climate Change and Health Research in the Philippines: A Complementary Tool in Research Agenda-Setting

Paul lester chua.

1 Alliance for Improving Health Outcomes, Inc., Rm. 406, Veria I Bldg., 62 West Avenue, Barangay West Triangle, Quezon City 1104, Philippines

2 Department of Global Health, School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, 1-12-4 Sakamoto, Nagasaki 852-8102, Japan

Miguel Manuel Dorotan

Jemar anne sigua, rafael deo estanislao, masahiro hashizume.

3 Department of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, 1-12-4 Sakamoto, Nagasaki 852-8523, Japan

Miguel Antonio Salazar

4 Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Im Neuenheimer Feld 324, 69120 Heidelberg, Germany

The impacts of climate change on human health have been observed and projected in the Philippines as vector-borne and heat-related diseases have and continue to increase. As a response, the Philippine government has given priority to climate change and health as one of the main research funding topics. To guide in identifying more specific research topics, a scoping review was done to complement the agenda-setting process by mapping out the extent of climate change and health research done in the country. Research articles and grey literature published from 1980 to 2017 were searched from online databases and search engines, and a total of 34 quantitative studies were selected. Fifty-three percent of the health topics studied were about mosquito-borne diseases, particularly dengue fever. Seventy-nine percent of the studies reported evidence of positive associations between climate factors and health outcomes. Recommended broad research themes for funding were health vulnerability, health adaptation, and co-benefits. Other notable recommendations were the development of open data and reproducible modeling schemes. In conclusion, the scoping review was useful in providing a background for research agenda-setting; however, additional analyses or consultations should be complementary for added depth.

1. Introduction

The Philippines is one of the most vulnerable nations where one can observe and project the impacts of climate change [ 1 ]. Climate change-induced temperature increases and rainfall variability are considered most likely to have the greatest impacts on the country [ 1 ]. The frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones originating in the Pacific are also increasing [ 2 ], albeit not definitive [ 3 ], and three of the highest recorded maximum gustiness occurred in this country in the last two decades, including Typhoon Haiyan. Studies found that climate change will continue to expose the vulnerabilities of the ecosystems, freshwater resources, coastal systems, agriculture, and fisheries in the Philippines, as well as human health. It was observed and projected that climate change affected, and will continue to affect increases in diseases—particularly vector- and waterborne diseases—as well as heat-related illnesses [ 1 ].

In 2015, the Philippine Government spent a total of 2.83 million USD for climate change adaptation (98%, 2.73 million USD) and mitigation (2%, 0.063 million USD) [ 4 ]. These were allocated to food security (3%), water sufficiency (54%), the ecology and environment (8%), human security (5%), climate-smart industries (0.4%), sustainable energy (26%), knowledge and capacity development (1.8%), and finance (0.8%) [ 4 ]. None had been allocated for health or spent under the health sector.

The lack of attention to the impacts of climate change on health was picked up by the Philippine National Health Research System (PNHRS), who included it in the National Unified Health Research Agenda 2017–2022 as one of the core topics under the Health Resiliency section [ 5 ]. To help map out and elaborate the current extent of this research field, a research agenda setting was conducted in 2018. As part of the agenda-setting process, a scoping review was done to help elaborate on and generate possible research themes and priorities for funding, and this paper presents the results of the review.

Since scoping reviews can be an arduous, yet transparent method for mapping research areas, some recently used it as either a stand-alone or supplementary tool in agenda-setting in various fields in health research [ 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 ]. Montesanti et al. used it as a sole tool in generating key research themes in primary health care in Canada to contribute to the efficient and equitable use of limited funding, and possibly reduced duplication [ 6 ]. Alternatively, Ajumobi et al. used a scoping review in developing introductory materials to guide the consultative process in setting Nigeria’s national malaria operational research agenda [ 7 ].

In the field of climate change and health, Hosking and Campbell-Lendrum used a scoping review to generate an overview of the entire field of climate change and health guided by the World Health Assembly priorities as a framework, including: (1) assessing risks, (2) identifying effective and cost-effective interventions, (3) measuring the co-benefits and co-harms of adaptation and mitigation, (4) improving decision support, and (5) estimating costs [ 10 ]. Recently, a more rigorous scoping review methodological framework for climate change and health was developed by Herlihy et al. to examine historical trends and provide a more extensive and inclusive overview of existing scientific literature on climate change and health based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) framework [ 11 ].

Similarly, the purpose of this paper is to present an overview of the existing literature on climate change and health research in the Philippines. The specific objectives of this review are to: (1) map out the health topics associated with climate change in the Philippines, (2) describe their methodologies, findings, and reported challenges, and (3) identify possible research priorities.

2. Materials and Methods

The methodology used was based on the approach outlined by Arksey and O’Malley, and search strategies by Herlihy et al. [ 11 , 12 ]. The review comprised: (1) identifying a broad research question, (2) identifying relevant studies, (3) selecting studies, (4) charting the data, (5) collating, summarizing, and reporting the results, and (6) consulting stakeholders. The research team came up with the broad question, “What are the characteristics, methodologies, and findings of the studies on climate/weather exposure and human health outcomes done in the Philippines?”

2.1. Search Strategy

The literature search was limited to online-based databases or search engines. Initially, a literature search was done using PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, and the Web of Science on March 7, 2018. For grey literature, additional online databases and search engines were used, including the Health Research and Development Information Network (HERDIN), which is a research database of the Philippine Council for Health Research and Development, as well as OpenGrey, ProQuest, and Google on April 5–6, 2018. Grey literature were searched to expand the possibly small number of published articles in scientific journals. The search terms comprised broad terms on climate factors and health outcomes ( Table 1 ) [ 10 , 11 ].

Search keywords.

The literature search was limited from 1980 to 2017 (37 years) to possibly consider studies in the past. References of screened full-text articles and grey literature were manually searched for additional literature.

2.2. Eligibility Criteria

For published articles, only full-text original or research articles were selected, while grey literature were limited to full-text theses, dissertations, technical reports, and discussion papers. Clear statements of associations between climate factors and health outcomes were required. Climate factors were meteorological parameters, extreme weather events, air pollution, and atmosphere-ocean interaction phenomena. The Philippines had to be explicitly mentioned as a study site. In the case of multi-site studies, findings specifically for the Philippines should be present in the results or discussion section. Initially, both quantitative and qualitative studies were considered to further widen the selection pool of articles and papers; however, quantitative studies were only presented here to clearly articulate the results. Mixing the results and discussion with qualitative and/or mixed methods studies may limit the depth of the discussion. Only articles and grey literature written in English were included, because it is the language used in academia or business in the Philippines.

2.3. Screening

The abstracts and executive summaries were reviewed by two individuals looking for the keywords related to climate factors, human health outcomes, associations between exposures and outcomes, and the Philippines as the study site or one of the study sites. Studies with Filipino participants done outside the country were excluded (e.g., studies with overseas Filipino workers as participants). After the initial screening, each reviewer separately reviewed the full texts of the articles and papers. An eligibility criteria review was done to examine their content in terms of associations made between health outcomes and climate factors in the Philippines. For the purposes of this study, an association was loosely defined as any explicit textual statement on the attempt to relate health outcome(s) with climate factor(s). The results of the screening were discussed by two reviewers to reach a consensus on which should be included in the final selection list.

2.4. Characterization

The selected articles and papers were categorized based on the human health outcomes, climate factors, research design, methodologies, and country affiliations of the first authors which were researched. Further data on the study results were extracted to identify the specific details on the type of research and depth of the findings. To identify research themes, five climate and health themes by Smith et al. in one of the chapters of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report were adopted [ 13 ]. Apart from the purposes of brevity, this was selected because the eligibility criteria followed Smith et al.’s concept of linking primary exposure pathways by which climate change affects health outcomes. To guide the categorization of the articles, excerpts from their study objectives and results were used as a basis from which to identify which theme they fell under ( Table 2 ).

Criteria in classifying research themes (adopted from Smith et al. [ 13 ]).

2.5. Consultation

Initial results of the review were presented to 20 stakeholders from various offices in the Philippines with initiatives or interests in climate change and health, including government agencies, academia, and non-profit institutions, on May 16, 2018. Recommendations and feedback were sought. Some government institutions shared their studies for possible inclusion in the analysis.

2.6. Data Analysis

Data were encoded in a single Microsoft Excel 2013 spreadsheet (Microsoft Corporation, Redmond, WA, USA). Descriptive statistics were calculated for summary using MS Excel 2013. Excerpts from selected studies were coded by one author and validated by another.

2.7. Ethical Considerations

Since the lead institution (Alliance for Improving Health Outcomes, Inc) did not have an ethical review committee, the research protocol received ethical approval from the St. Cabrini Medical Center, Asian Eye Institute Ethics Review Committee (Makati City, Philippines), Protocol No. 2018-006.

After removing duplicates, a total of 757 studies (726 articles and 31 grey literature) were retrieved and initially reviewed for their abstracts. A majority (678 articles) were excluded since they were non-human health-related. Four grey literature found from HERDIN did not have executive summaries, and were not retrievable upon request from the authors. A total of 75 passed the abstract/executive summary review ( Figure 1 ). Upon full-text review, 16 studies were found to have no mention or analysis about climate factors and findings specifically for the Philippines. Fourteen had no retrievable full-text copies despite requesting from authors. Five were non-research studies. One article was retrieved from references of a published article. Additional three grey literature were shared by consultation participants, and only one passed the full-text review because the other two were about disaster risk reduction. A total of 40 articles and grey literature were found eligible for this review. Only 34 quantitative studies were presented here [ 14 , 15 , 16 , 17 , 18 , 19 , 20 , 21 , 22 , 23 , 24 , 25 , 26 , 27 , 28 , 29 , 30 , 31 , 32 , 33 , 34 , 35 , 36 , 37 , 38 , 39 , 40 , 41 , 42 , 43 , 44 , 45 , 46 , 47 ].

Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) flowchart of selection process.

3.1. General Characteristics

Seventy-nine percent (79%, 27/34) of the selected quantitative studies were articles published in scientific journals ( Table 3 ). Others were technical reports (9%, 3/34), theses/dissertations (6%, 2/34), a discussion article, and a conference paper. Sixty-eight percent (68%, 23/34) of the selected articles and papers were published/dated from 2011 to 2017, while only 11 were published in the previous decades. Health topics tackled in these studies were varied, but about half were on mosquito-borne diseases (53%, 18/34), mostly on dengue (50%, 17/34), and only two on malaria. Some were water-related (26%, 9/34), such as diarrheal diseases, helminth infections, and leptospirosis. Other communicable diseases that were studied were meningitis (6%, 2/34) and measles (3%, 1/34). Four (12%) were related to mortality due to non-communicable diseases, such as cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. One (3%) studied malnutrition in children. Spatial resolutions of the selected studies were mostly city-level (47%, 16/34), and there were least on a region-level (15%, 5/34). Fifty-nine percent (59%, 20/34) of the institutional affiliations of the first authors were from Philippine institutions, while the remaining were from other countries, such as Japan and the US. Eighteen of the studies (53%) were funded by foreign institutions, while only two (6%) received funding from Philippine agencies.

General characteristics of selected studies.

3.2. Methodologies

Most of the studies (79%, 27/34) used time-series analysis as the research design in associating exposure variables and health outcomes, while the remaining used cross-sectional (9%, 3/34), process-based modeling (6%, 2/34), Bayesian modeling (3%, 1/34), and fuzzy association rule mining (FARM) (3%, 1/34) ( Table 4 ). A time-series study also applied a case-crossover design, which used case days (two control days per case day).

Methodological characteristics of selected studies.

Among the time-series studies, six (22%) simply visualized patterns from time-series plots [ 28 , 31 , 39 , 40 , 43 , 47 ], while the rest used a variety of statistical models. Eight (30%) used general linear models (i.e., simple and multiple linear regressions) [ 27 , 32 , 34 , 35 , 38 , 41 , 44 , 45 ], eight (30%) used generalized linear models (e.g., quasi-poisson/poisson models and distributed lag nonlinear models) [ 15 , 19 , 22 , 25 , 33 , 36 , 42 ], two (7%) used autoregressive models (i.e., autoregressive integrated moving average models and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models) [ 37 , 44 ], two (7%) used wavelet analysis [ 16 , 20 ], and four (15%) used other kinds of models (i.e., general additive model [ 14 , 15 ], spectral analysis [ 18 ], dynamic linear model [ 16 ], and transfer entropy [ 46 ]). The temporal resolutions used in the time-series studies were daily (19%, 5/27), weekly (15%, 4/27), monthly (63%, 17/27), and annual (7%, 2/27). Only 33% of these studies (9/27) considered temporal lags of exposure to health outcomes [ 14 , 15 , 18 , 22 , 25 , 36 , 37 , 42 , 44 ]. All analyzed short-term associations of disease patterns were on preceding and concurrent exposure, but only seven studies controlled temporal trends and seasonal patterns [ 14 , 15 , 22 , 25 , 36 , 37 , 42 ]. Two studies explored longer-term associations with annual data and atmosphere-ocean interaction phenomena. One study using SARIMA forecasted monthly dengue incidence from 2011 to 2014 [ 37 ], and a study projected dengue, malaria, and cholera cases to 2020 and 2050 using general linear models [ 44 ].

The two process-based modeling studies (i.e., CLIMEX and the susceptible-infected-recovered model) were hybrid models incorporating time-series [ 17 , 24 ]. The three cross-sectional studies used descriptive statistics to present associations between dry/wet seasons and health outcomes. One study applied the Bayesian logistic geostatistical model for schistosomiasis [ 21 ]. Only two models forecasted health outcomes (i.e., the CLIMEX model for malaria prevalence and FARM predictor model for dengue incidence). The CLIMEX model projected malaria prevalence up to year 2100 based on eco-physiological suitability for mosquitoes. Similarly, the predictor model purposively predicted dengue outbreaks four weeks in advance based on environmental predictors related to suitability for mosquitoes.

Based on the exposure variables, 27 studies (79%) used various meteorological parameters, five (15%) used extreme weather events, three (9%) used atmosphere-ocean interaction phenomena, and three (9%) used wet and dry seasons. The meteorological parameters used were rainfall (100%, 27/27), air temperature (89%, 24/27), humidity (67%, 18/27), sunshine hours (4%, 1/27), sea-level pressure (4%, 1/27), wind speed (4%, 1/27), and dew-point temperature (4%, 1/27). Most of the studies’ sources (56%, 19/34) of these parameters was the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), which routinely observes these parameters via synoptic weather stations. Other sources were the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (18%, 6/34), WorldClim (6%, 2/34), CliMond (3%, 1/34), and National Aeronautics and Space Administration-Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (3%, 1/34). For rainfall, three studies used counts of rainy days rather than using the total/mean rainfall in millimeters. The extreme weather events used were high temperature days (categorized by high temperature percentiles), heatwaves (consecutive days with high temperature percentiles), and typhoons. For the atmosphere-ocean interaction phenomena, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices (i.e., Southern Oscillation Index, Oceanic Niño Index, and ENSO years) and the sea-surface temperature were used.

In terms of outcome variables, the most common (44%, 15/34) was surveillance data from the Philippine Department of Health and a non-government active surveillance. These were secondary data from the existing surveillance system of selected public hospitals and clinics. Nine studies (26%) used hospital admissions data, in which five were primary and four were secondary medical records. Four studies (12%) using mortality data were from vital statistical records of the Philippine Statistics Authority. Three (8%) used data from government- and foreign-funded national surveys for schistosomiasis, enteric protozoans, and poverty, while others were hospital outpatient-, community-, and school-based human and non-human samples that were collected.

3.3. Findings

Eighty-two percent (28/34) of the studies reported associations between exposures and health outcomes, with 27 studies (79%) reporting positive associations [ 14 , 15 , 16 , 18 , 20 , 21 , 22 , 24 , 25 , 26 , 27 , 29 , 30 , 31 , 32 , 33 , 34 , 36 , 37 , 38 , 39 , 41 , 42 , 44 , 45 , 47 ], and six studies (18%) reporting negative associations [ 16 , 19 , 34 , 36 , 46 , 47 ]. Fifteen studies (44%) reported no or insignificant associations [ 19 , 24 , 25 , 27 , 28 , 33 , 34 , 35 , 37 , 38 , 40 , 41 , 44 , 46 , 47 ].

For the 15 time-series studies of dengue incidence, 47% (7/15) reported significant positive associations with air temperature (i.e., mean, minimum, and/or maximum) [ 18 , 33 , 34 , 38 , 41 , 42 , 47 ], while only two reported a negative association with maximum temperature [ 34 , 44 ]. By selecting only El Niño years in 1997–1999, Naragdao (2001) found that the mean air temperature associations had higher effect to dengue incidence in the Iloilo province (from a coefficient of 0.0118 in pre-El Niño years of 1990–1996, to a coefficient 2.0174 in El Niño years of 1997–1999) [ 42 ]. For rainfall, 47% (7/15) of the dengue studies reported positive associations [ 18 , 27 , 33 , 37 , 42 , 43 , 47 ], while three reported negative associations [ 19 , 44 , 46 ]. Agustin found that years with La Niña (phenomena with abnormally high rainfall) were positively associated with dengue incidence [ 41 ]. Other positive associations with dengue incidence were relative humidity (33%, 5/15) [ 18 , 42 , 47 ] and maximum sea-level pressure (7%, 1/15) [ 33 ]. For a study on dengue virus samples, its minimum infection rate was found to be positively associated with relative humidity [ 19 , 37 , 38 , 44 , 46 ]. On the other hand, studies reported insignificant associations ( p > 0.05) between dengue incidence and relative humidity (40%, 6/15) [ 19 , 33 , 35 , 37 , 38 , 41 ], rainfall (27%, 4/15) [ 34 , 35 , 38 , 41 ], air temperature (20%, 3/15) [ 19 , 27 , 35 ], and minimum sea-level pressure (7%, 1/15) [ 33 ].

Two studies on malaria incidence revealed associations with air temperature and rainfall. For air temperature, positive associations were found with maximum and mean temperatures [ 44 , 47 ]. However, Lorenzo et al. found a negative association with total monthly rainfall [ 44 ], while PAGASA found a positive association with total monthly rainfall. Both found insignificant associations between malaria incidence and relative humidity [ 47 ].

For communicable respiratory diseases, interesting associations with exposures were found. Acute respiratory infection prevalence was positively associated with wind speed, but insignificantly associated with relative humidity, mean temperature, and accumulated rainfall [ 45 ]. Pneumonia incidence in children less than three years old was negatively associated with sunshine hours with a cumulative 60 day lag (relative risk (RR) of 0.67 (95% confidence intervals (CI): 0.52–0.87)), but not associated with rainy days, relative humidity, and mean temperature with a cumulative 60 day lag [ 25 ]. For influenza and the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), positive associations were found with mean temperature and specific humidity, but negative associations were found with relative humidity and precipitation [ 24 ]. Both influenza and RSV had no association with the number of rainy days per week [ 24 ].

In water-related diseases, three studies observed that diarrhea incidence would peak during the rainy season, particularly the months with highest total rainfall [ 26 , 30 , 39 ]. Additionally, three studies on cholera incidence revealed positive associations with monthly rainfall and mean monthly relative humidity [ 39 , 44 , 47 ]. In addition, a study found a negative association with maximum temperature [ 44 ]. One study on leptospirosis using spectral analysis found a positive correlation between least-square-fitting curves of leptospirosis with rainfall, but an insignificant association with mean temperature [ 18 ]. On the other hand, acute bloody diarrhea and typhoid fever incidence was found to be unassociated with mean temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity [ 46 ]. For soil-transmitted helminthiases, the land surface temperature was positively associated with prevalence odds of Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura , and negatively associated with the prevalence of hookworm infections [ 21 ]. Additionally, T. trichiura prevalence odds was found to be positively associated with rainfall [ 21 ].

For other communicable diseases, one study observed that meningitis occurred more during the dry-cool season [ 29 ]. Other studies on measles and meningitis found insignificant associations with mean temperature and rainfall [ 47 ]. For malnutrition, Salvacion observed high and low total rainfall months to be associated with rates of malnourished children under five years old [ 32 ]. In the summer months, the high mean temperature months were found to be negatively associated with the rate of malnourished children [ 32 ].

Four studies by Seposo et al. (2015, 2016, 2017, and 2017) explored the effects of extreme heat and heatwaves to mortality (i.e., due to diabetes and cardiovascular, respiratory, and multiple causes) in selected cities [ 14 , 15 , 22 , 36 ]. They found that extreme temperatures (i.e., 95th and 99th percentiles of mean temperature) with a cumulative 15 day lag led to high risks in mortality [pooled RR of 2.48 (95% CI: 1.55–3.98)] [ 15 ]. The minimum mortality temperature was observed at the 75th percentile of mean temperature (i.e., ~28 °C) [ 15 ]. However, the temperature-mortality relationships showed a U-shaped pattern with elevated risks at the extremes of the temperature range [ 15 ]. For example, the first temperature percentile RR was 1.23 (95% CI: 0.88–1.72) [ 15 ]. They also found that higher risks were particularly observed in respiratory mortality, women, and people aged >64 years [ 15 ]. In the city of Manila (capital of the Philippines), the effect modification of age in the 99th temperature percentile-mortality relationship were increasing with RRs of 1.23 (95% CI: 1.07–1.41) for ages of 0–14 years of age, 1.31 (95% CI: 1.18–1.46) for 15–64 years of age, and 1.53 (95% CI: 1.31–1.80) for >64 years of age [ 22 ]. For diabetes mortality, the highest RR with extreme temperature was observed with a shorter cumulative lag of 7 days [RR: 1.61 (95% CI: 1.21–2.15)] compared to 21 days [RR: 1.55 (95% CI: 1.06–2.29)] [ 14 ]. On the other hand, the heatwave effect to all-cause mortality was found to be insignificant and mostly negative [ 36 ].

For the studies using process-based models, findings were presented in a different manner. Khormi and Kumar observed that the Philippines had suitable to highly suitable conditions (i.e., ecoclimate conditions comprising mosquito growth and stress indices) for the mosquitoes to survive and for malaria transmission in the reference years of 1950–2000 [ 17 ]. Based on ecoclimate conditions in 2100, projections show an overall reduction in the climate suitability for Anopheles in the Philippines because of changes in heat stress, causing large areas to have heat stress beyond the maximum survival values for the malaria vector (>40°C) [ 17 ]. Using the susceptible-infected-recovered (compartmental) model, Paynter et al. modeled the seasonal peak and troughs of respiratory syncytial virus transmission [ 24 ]. They found that rainfall seasonal troughs occurred consistently post 17–18 weeks after the centre of yearly RSV epidemics [ 24 ]. However, they did not see such a lag pattern when visually compared to relative humidity, dew point, and mean temperature [ 24 ]. For the Buczak et al.’s prediction model using FARM, findings reported were about the model’s considerably high accuracy in predicting weekly dengue incidence in Philippines provinces four weeks in advance [ 23 ]. They explained that creating rules/fuzzy sets of meteorological and climate parameters based on existing literature was enough to predict dengue outbreaks [ 23 ].

3.4. Challenges and Recommendations

Majority of the studies (62%, 21/34) did not report limitations related to climate change and health [ 18 , 19 , 23 , 24 , 25 , 26 , 27 , 28 , 29 , 30 , 31 , 32 , 33 , 35 , 36 , 37 , 38 , 39 , 40 , 41 , 43 , 46 ]. With the ones reporting limitations, recurring statements of limitation were related to poor data quality (35%, 12/34) [ 14 , 15 , 16 , 17 , 20 , 21 , 22 , 34 , 42 , 44 , 45 , 47 ], as studies reported a lack of long daily time-series data [ 16 , 34 ], significant missing values [ 22 , 42 , 44 , 45 ], and unavailable geographical or spatial data [ 15 , 16 ]. Apart from these limitations, other vital environmental parameters like air pollution [ 14 , 15 , 22 ] and migration [ 20 ] were not available to further provide depth in the data analysis. To reduce such limitations, Buczak et al. recommended investing in data quality and monitoring improvements so that disease incidence surveillance and meteorological parameters can be accurate, reliable, and accessible [ 29 ].

Further analyses were also recommended: (1) in associating climate/weather variables and health outcomes by using advanced modelling techniques [ 18 , 24 , 27 , 45 , 46 ]; (2) in verifying harvesting, temporary increase in deaths, and effect modification by socioeconomic factors [ 14 , 15 ]; (3) by expanding to other study sites [ 21 , 33 , 44 , 45 ]; and (4) in exploring evidence of causality between exposure and health outcomes [ 25 , 45 ].

Frequently recommended use of the study findings was to serve as a basis in improving policy and programmatic implementation (56%, 19/34) [ 14 , 15 , 17 , 18 , 19 , 20 , 21 , 22 , 23 , 27 , 31 , 32 , 33 , 35 , 36 , 38 , 41 , 42 , 44 ]. An example was the suggestion of Cabrera (1985) in delivering deworming tablets twice a year because of the seasonality of reinfection of helminths in children, which was determined during low rainfall months [ 31 ]. Another example was related to intensified vector control for dengue (21%, 7/34), especially during the rainy season or months with high rainfall [ 19 , 20 , 27 , 33 , 35 , 38 , 41 ]. Predictive models were also deemed useful as part of an early warning system for disease prevention and control programmes [ 14 , 15 , 19 , 22 , 23 ] or for extreme weather events like heat waves [ 36 ]. Furthermore, Naragdao suggested the need for multidisciplinary collaboration across sectors due to the complexity of climate change impacts [ 42 ]. Seposo et al. found that the regulation of room temperature for individuals with non-communicable diseases like cardiovascular diseases and diabetes should be explored to reduce risk during summer days with extreme temperature [ 36 ].

3.5. Research Themes

Sixty-eight percent (23/34) of the studies were under the theme of “Ecosystem-Mediated Impacts of Climate Change on Health Outcomes” ( Table 5 ), with topics related to vector-borne and water-related diseases. The next theme was “Vulnerability to Disease and Injury Due to Climate Variability and Climate Change” (12%, 4/34) with studies about the vulnerability of age groups and gender. The rest of the studies were categorized under “Direct Impacts of Climate and Weather on Health” (32%, 11/34), “Adaptation to Protect Health” (12%, 4/34), and “Health Impacts Heavily Mediated through Human Institutions” (3%, 1/34). None were categorized under “Co-Benefits”.

Research themes of selected studies.

4. Discussion

This study presented the overview of climate change and health studies done in the Philippines. Selected research articles and grey literature were descriptively analyzed to summarize their general characteristics, methods, findings, limitations, and recommendations, as well as to categorize their research themes. Based on the results, recommended research priorities for funding, limitations of the review, and pointers about research agenda setting are discussed as follows.

4.1. Research Gaps and Priorities

There were actually not enough studies retrieved, thus making the identification of research gaps not as straightforward as it could be. When looking at the research themes with the least number of studies, there were apparent gaps in research topics on the “Vulnerability to Disease and Injury Due to Climate Variability and Climate Change”, “Adaptation to Protect Health”, “Health Impacts Heavily Mediated through Human Institutions”, and “Co-Benefits”. These research topics remain broad but can potentially produce valuable findings and offer key solutions to several existing problems. For a country with considerable vulnerability to extreme weather events and climate change, prioritizing health vulnerabilities and health adaptation research is an easy recommendation because it potentially addresses present and near-future issues [ 48 ]. These can also generate tangible evidence and technology that can be relatively appreciated by policy-makers and the general public.

Another topic that can potentially be appreciated by the general public is co-benefits research. It is a good priority topic for funding, as such studies can quantify co-health benefits in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from major sources like transportation, food and agriculture, energy generation, and industries [ 49 ]. This research also touched on air pollution research, such as measurements of the impacts of climate-altering pollutants on health, which were not retrieved from the literature search. These can pave the way for creating and supporting mitigation policies and legislations across non-health sectors [ 49 ]. The lack of co-benefit studies retrieved may be explained by the complex interdisciplinary approach required from sectors who do not usually collaborate with one another. Thus, apart from providing research funding, workshops and events for establishing climate change research collaborations may be considered to be organized in the future to initiate an exchange of ideas.

A recurring study limitation was data unavailability and poor quality. Local sources of secondary data on health outcomes and meteorological parameters were reported to have limitations on their quality, accuracy, and reliability. These sources are also not openly available, and have limitations due to the current data privacy policies. A possible reason behind this is that these data sources are not made to cater for modeling studies. Since many time-series analysis studies rely on such data, better data monitoring and storage should be included as a priority project alongside such research projects. Exploring the possibility of developing open and anonymized health outcomes and climate change data from existing local databases can unlock a revolution of modeling studies.

Apart from developing better databases, a possible research topic that can be prioritized is the development of standardized and reproducible modeling scheme(s) so that studies can be compared and combined. This considers the limitations in the geographical setting and political setup of the Philippines. Beyond modeling or ecological studies, quantifying causality through (nested) cohort studies, although complex and expensive, can be considered to be developed.

4.2. Limitations

A number of limitations can be noted from this scoping review. The studies presented only included quantitative studies, although there were six qualitative and mixed-method studies retrieved. These kinds of studies, although small in number, can provide different insights, particularly in regard to the perceptions, habits, and adaptation practices of people. These are data that cannot be clearly captured using quantitative methods.

Also, the selection of quantitative studies excluded disaster risk reduction (DRR) studies. For example, flooding-related studies were not selected because they were mainly related with DRR. In reality, DRR and climate change studies have commonalities and share risk pathways to health outcomes [ 50 ]. Exclusion of studies with no measurements of health outcomes may have also averted the inclusion of relevant studies related with climate change.

Indeed, IPCC research themes provided a simple guide in identifying potential research priorities for funding. However, it fails to provide specific health topics to focus on. From the retrieved studies, dengue was the most researched, but this does not necessarily mean that dengue has been studied well without analyzing the quality of the research and evidence found. The descriptive nature of the scoping review limits such analyses. A possibility method of narrowing down the amount of health topics to focus on is by considering the top causes of mortality and morbidity, or what are the current political priorities. Topics that can have implications to climate change can be the selected as the priority topics. In this way, selection of topics to be funded by the government remains valuable and of interest to the government.

The literature search was not exhaustive enough because it was limited to what was available online. Although there were some literature retrieved from the consultation, this undermines other studies from academic institutions and other unrepresented agencies working on climate change research.

4.3. Research Agenda-Setting

The full process conducted in the research agenda setting for climate change and health comprised: (1) scoping review, (2) stakeholder analysis, and (3) consultation meetings. The sole purpose of the scoping review in the agenda-setting was to provide the needed background for the stakeholders in guiding their decision-making in selecting the final research priority topics for funding and generating the roadmap for climate change and health research. Although scoping reviews can be a standalone tool in setting research agenda, this was not done because of the possible disconnection with the local stakeholders’ interests, knowledge, and skills. The power in selecting the final research agenda was still with stakeholders and driven by their own individual or group interests. However, overall, the findings from the scoping review allow the stakeholders to see how their interests fit in the current evidence and gaps, thus discouraging any possible redundancies. Furthermore, any disconnections between the stakeholders and scoping review findings can be beneficial for the funding agencies in possibly considering support of the development of human resources for climate change and health through scholarships and training.

5. Conclusions

The use of scoping reviews supports the process of research agenda-setting. This particular study provided an overview of the current status of climate and health research in the Philippines, which allowed for identification of certain gaps and possible research topic priorities, such as health vulnerability, health adaptation, and co-benefits. However, the broad results should require additional analysis or a consultation workshop to conclusively select more specific health research topics for funding.

Acknowledgments

We would like to thank all the participants of the consultation for providing meaningful critique and recommendations for the scoping review.

Author Contributions

P.L.C. wrote the manuscript. P.L.C. and J.A.S. did the abstract and full-text reviews. M.M.D. and R.D.E. reviewed the results of the selection process. M.M.D., M.A.S., and R.D.E. facilitated the consultation. M.A.S. provided guidance in structuring manuscript and categorizing research themes. M.M.D., R.D.E., M.A.S., and M.H. reviewed and improved the manuscript. All authors reviewed and approved the final manuscript.

The Philippine Council for Health Research and Development funded this study.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest. The funders had no role in the design of the study; in the collection, analyses, or interpretation of data; in the writing of the manuscript, or in the decision to publish the results.

Philippines Country Climate and Development Report

Download the Philippines Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR)

Background Papers: Climate Change Institutional Analysis | Water | Agriculture | Energy Transition | Transport |  Macroeconomic Modelling  |  Climate Change and Environmental Risks in the Financial and Private Sector  |  The Distributional Impacts of Climate Change Damage, Adaptation and Mitigation Policies  |  Strengthening Adaptive Social Protection  |  Social Impacts of Climate Change in High-Risk Areas  |  Disaster Risk Management

Climate change poses major risks for development in the Philippines. Climate shocks, whether in the form of extreme weather events or slow-onset trends—will hamper economic activities, damage infrastructure, and induce deep social disruptions. Policy inaction would impose substantial economic and human costs, especially on the poor.

The Philippines Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) comprehensively analyzes how climate change will affect the country's ability to meet its development goals and pursue green, resilient, and inclusive development. The CCDR helps identify opportunities for climate action by both the public and private sectors.

The CCDR shows that climate change poses major risks to development in the Philippines but that the country has many options to address them. If nothing is done, climate change will impose substantial economic and human costs, reducing GDP by as much as 13.6 percent of GDP by 2040, with the poorest households most affected. These effects are likely to vary across and within regions. Adapting to the risks of climate change—including extreme events and slow-onset problems—is critical for the Philippines. It cannot wholly eliminate the costs of climate change, but it can greatly reduce them. Many adaptation responses also contribute to mitigation; conversely, many mitigation measures generate local co-benefits, such as reduced air pollution.

Although the Philippines is a relatively low emitter of Greenhouse gases (GHGs), it can contribute to global mitigation efforts through an energy transition, including a transition away from coal. The investment costs of such adaptation measures and energy transition are substantial but not out of reach. A large part of decarbonizing the power system has a relatively low incremental system cost compared with the Government’s current plan, mainly involving further expanding renewables such as solar, whose cost is declining. Moreover, it could lead to lower electricity prices. The energy transition should be complemented with energy efficiency measures—notably in transport and buildings—and by encouraging compact city development to facilitate mass transit. The private sector drives economic growth and is pivotal in adaptation and mitigation. As such, appropriate incentives must be in place.

The CCDR prioritizes the most urgent development challenges likely to be impacted by climate change in the Philippines. Even among these, the analysis is necessarily brief. Background papers prepared for the CCDR consider a much broader range of issues and examine them in more detail than is possible here.

Chapter 2  examines the challenges climate change poses for development in the Philippines. 

Chapter 3  then assesses the country’s NDCs and its existing climate policies. 

Chapter 4  details the sectors and locations most exposed to climate change, examining the likely impacts on economic activities in these sectors and the people who depend on them. The analysis in this chapter relies on a synthesis of prior work complemented, in several instances, on detailed partial-equilibrium modeling prepared specifically for the CCDR. 

Chapter 5  combines these analytical strands and uses Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models to assess the impact of climate shocks and climate policy tradeoffs on growth, inequality, and poverty. 

Chapter 6 summarizes policy recommendations for all key sectors and identifies policy priorities.

Download the full report

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Climate change and the common Filipino

It’s hard to think about climate change in this time of soaring unemployment, shuttered businesses, and worsened poverty. But we all have to concern ourselves with climate now, because it is no longer just some vague realm of scientists and world leaders. It has become an economic problem, one that’s already hurting all of us, especially the poor, in profound ways.

Various analyses show that climate change is widening the wealth gap, particularly making poor countries poorer. One 2019 study from Stanford University found that from 1961 to 2010, the per-person wealth in the world’s poorest countries decreased by as much as 30 percent due to global warming.

In a country like the Philippines, it’s easy to see how the dramatic change in climate has pushed individuals and communities toward economic distress. More severe and more frequent extreme weather events (e.g. typhoons, floods, and droughts) wreak havoc on homes, livelihoods, and local economies. With the increasing unpredictability of these events, poorer, less adaptable communities become more exposed and less resilient.

Not only does climate change inflict costly damage and destroy livelihoods, it also threatens our food security. Our agriculture sector takes a hit with every flood and drought, while our aquatic food sources suffer from the warming and acidification of marine habitats. In addition, vector-borne diseases such as dengue find more conducive environments in warmer tropical climates like ours.

All these have domino effects on the day-to-day life of the average Filipino, including food access, health and medical care, productivity, childcare and education, and more.

It is high time to think of climate change as an economic issue, and for Filipinos to include this issue in political (not partisan) decision-making.

How is climate response a political decision? For so long, the narrative on climate change focused on the responsibility of the individual: Each person must choose eco-friendly products, conserve energy, plant trees, and so on. It is clear now that individual action can only go so far; without concrete policy from governments and political will to effect meaningful solutions, our individual actions can only scratch the surface of the issue.

Fr. Jett Villarin, one of the country’s foremost climate scientists and who has worked with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, emphasized this in a briefing last week: “Climate action cannot just be individual. It has to be organized, it has to be collective… We need good policies, we need good governance.”

In terms of climate, good governance involves national and local government leaders who listen to scientists in crafting climate laws and regulations—and actually enact them.

So far, environmental laws in the country have been feebly implemented. For example, the Ecological Solid Waste Management Act has barely put a stop to open dumping and open burning of waste, and the Revised Forestry Code has not deterred illegal lumber-cutters even in protected forests.

Further, good climate governance entails not only the mitigation of global warming factors but also adaptation strategies for citizens already living in a warmer world. As we are now experiencing the effects of climate change, how can we adapt? Adaptation strategies include disaster risk management, water utility management, protection of ecosystems, and support for sustainable agriculture.

Our local and national government leaders have to hear our strong public demand for effectual climate governance. Besides participating in visible advocacy, one of the ways to express our demand is through our vote. Already, we are seeing who among our politicians have included climate action in their priorities, who have failed their climate promises, and who have shown no regard at all for the climate crisis.

We, the common Filipino, must own the issue of climate change. It is not just scientists and academics who perceive its effects. It is us who are burdened economically, immensely, by the shortage of climate action.

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[OPINION] Global warming, climate change, and implications for the Philippines

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This is AI generated summarization, which may have errors. For context, always refer to the full article.

The following is the 40th in a series of excerpts from Kelvin Rodolfo’s ongoing book project “Tilting at the Monster of Morong: Forays Against the  Bataan Nuclear Power Plant  and Global Nuclear Energy. “

Early history

The fossil fuel industry, more than a century and a half older than the nuclear industry and its self-serving propaganda, has had much more time to praise itself and defend its terrible environmental record. No other group has done more to spread confusion about CO 2 -induced global warming.   

Let’s begin with the long and respectable history of how scientists came to recognize how CO 2 is causing climate change.  

Science transcends nationality; appropriately in this case because global warming threatens everyone. 

Arrhenius was not alarmed, and Callendar first saw only benefits: Co 2 encourages plant growth, extends the cultivation zone poleward, and “…the return of the deadly glaciers should be delayed indefinitely.” He ended his report, almost offhandedly: ”…the reserves of fuel…would be sufficient to give at least 10 times as much carbon dioxide as there is in the air at present.” 

Callendar’s research until 1961 was largely why the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii was established in 1958 to measure atmospheric CO 2 . 

Keeling and his curve

As a post-doctoral chemist at Cal Tech in California, Charles David Keeling was increasingly drawn to the environment and geology. He developed precise instrumentation to measure atmospheric CO 2 , and documented how CO 2 in forest air falls during the day while trees and plants photosynthesize, and rises back up while they rest at night.  

Since 1958 , Keeling’s lab has continuously monitored atmospheric CO 2 at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, far from the continents, unvegetated, and more than four kilometers or two miles above sea level, far above any localized CO 2 source.    

Like the daily fall and rise in forest-air CO 2 , Earth’s global atmosphere follows yearly CO 2 cycles. During the Northern Hemisphere spring and summer, photosynthesis reduces the CO 2 , which rises back up during the reduced sunlight of autumn and winter. Hence, the saw-toothed Keeling Curve. 

But each annual cycle increases the average. From 1958 to 2018, CO 2 contents increased 1.56 ppmv annually, but increased by about 2.33 in 2022.

To really understand the problem, view it and our place in geologic history and geologic time.

Geologic time

Imagine a movie of Earth’s history compressed into 24 hours as a digital video disc movie: 

The first quarter of the movie is all geology, no biology: volcanism;; continents forming; plate tectonics beginning; atmosphere and oceans accumulating. Only after six hours do Archaea , the first living beings appear around the vents of submarine volcanoes. 

Little change happens during the next 14 hours; very slowly-evolving procaryotes maintain a comfortable global temperature by taking CO 2 out of the ocean and atmosphere to make their tissues and their calcium-carbonate shells that accumulate as limestones.

More than 20 hours into the movie shellfish appear; the evolutionary explosion of complex forms has begun. Some biological tissues are buried in ocean sediments and become oil and gas.

After another hour the first land plants start extracting CO 2 from the air to make their tissues, some of which is buried as coal and methane. Feeding on the lush vegetation and each other, amphibians and reptiles evolve and flourish.

More than 23 and a half hours into the film the Chixulub asteroid kills most global life, including the dinosaurs. But life and the global environment recover.

The photosynthesis-respiration cycle

Over the eons, global life learned to recycle the materials every living thing needs. Plants and oceanic life photosynthesize : use sunlight to combine carbon dioxide, water, and a few other elements into carbohydrates like sugars, fats and proteins. Carbohydrate simply means carbon “hydrated,” combined with water. 

Respiration reverses the process: fungae and animals including us extract chemical energy in carbohydrates by burning them with oxygen, and respiring  – “breathing out” – water and carbon dioxide as waste, completing the cycle.

Small amounts of  organic stuffs, taken out of the photosynthesis-respiration cycle by being buried in soils and sediments, mature over millions of years into oil, methane, and coal.

Those fuels can’t remain locked in the rocks forever. Over geologic time they can be buried deeper than 4.6 kilometers, where Earth’s internal heat destroys them; or slow tectonic movements eventually raise the rocks into mountains, and erosion releases them to decompose.  

But over the last several hundred million years, a rough balance between storage and destruction left about two trillion barrels of petroleum (“rock oil”) and similar amounts of coal and methane taken out of the atmosphere and ocean and stored in the rocks. Estimates of how fast oil accumulates range from 4,600 to 12,000, averaging about 8,000 barrels a year – so slowly compared to how fast it is used that it must be considered a non-renewable resource.

The Industrial Revolution began undoing all those hundreds of millions of years of Life’s work by burning coal. Then, after the first successful oil well was drilled in Pennsylvania in 1859, the burning of oil accelerated rapidly. Some time in the next decade, humanity will have used up the first of the two trillion barrels stored in the Earth. During 2021 alone, even though COVID slowed its use, it was about 35.5 billion barrels. 

In that one year, humanity took out of the ground, burned, and returned to the atmosphere what Earth’s life had slowly taken out of it and stored as oil in the rocks for half a million years. We also burned 7.4 billion tons of coal and 4 trillion cubic meters of natural gas. How can the climate not be greatly disturbed?

Some Philippine implications

The average American is the worst climate change offender, using almost two barrels of oil and more than 12 megawatt-hours of electricity  a year. Average Filipinos, far more frugal, use only a third as much oil and a tenth as much electricity. Our people join the Marshallese (Foray 34) as among the most blameless in causing climate change, but among the worst affected by sea-level rise.

Increasingly, the ocean surface waters are absorbing atmospheric carbon dioxide and being acidified, seriously affecting Philippine coral reefs, a major source of fish. The fastest-growing third of the Philippine population living on the coastal plains worsen storm and tidal flooding from the rising seas by using so much well water that their plains are subsiding 10 or more times faster than sea level is rising.

The Pacific climate is shifting from more La Niñas to more El Niños, when fewer West Pacific typhoons form, but closer to the equator, so more are crossing the Philippines. All typhoons are getting fewer, but the stronger ones are becoming more frequent.  Rainfall within 100 kilometers of typhoons is increasing because global warming is weakening the winds that carry them along, slowing them down so they have more time to soak up water vapor along their oceanic paths, and to deliver rain when they reach land.

Our next Foray is the first of two that explore renewable energy sources for the Philippines as the climate crisis worsens. – Rappler.com

Born in Manila and educated at UP Diliman and the University of Southern California, Dr. Kelvin Rodolfo taught geology and environmental science at the University of Illinois at Chicago since 1966. He specialized in Philippine natural hazards since the 1980s.

Keep posted on Rappler for the next installment of Rodolfo’s series.

Previous pieces from  Tilting at the Monster of Morong :

• [OPINION] Tilting at the Monster of Morong
• [OPINION] Mount Natib and her sisters
• [OPINION] Sear, kill, obliterate: On pyroclastic flows and surges
• [OPINION] Beneath the waters of Subic Bay an old pyroclastic-flow deposit, and many faults
• [OPINION] Propaganda about faulting, earthquakes, and the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant
• [OPINION] Discovering the Lubao Fault
• [OPINION] The Lubao Fault at BNPP, and the volcanic threats there
• [OPINION] How Natib volcano and her 2 sisters came to be
• [OPINION] More BNPP threats: A Manila Trench megathrust earthquake and its tsunamis
• [OPINION] Shoddy, shoddy, shoddy: How they built the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant
• [OPINION] Where, oh where, would BNPP’s fuel come from?
• [OPINION] ‘Megatons to Megawatts’: Prices and true costs of nuclear energy
• [OPINION] Uranium enrichment for energy leads to enrichment for weapons
• [OPINION] Introducing the nuclear fuel cycle
• [OPINION] On uranium mining and milling
• [OPINION] Enriching and fabricating BNPP’s uranium fuel
• [OPINION] Decommissioning BNPP, and storing the nuclear dragon’s radioactive manure
• [OPINION] So how much greenhouse gas does nuclear power really generate?
• [OPINION] Getting up close and personal with the atom, and its nucleus that powers NPPs
• [OPINION] The nucleus and isotopes: Why BNPP needs Uranium 235, Not Uranium 238
• [OPINION] What you should know about radioactivity
• [OPINION] Uranium mine waste and the weird idea of half-life
• [OPINION] How nuclear power plants work: Hot monster piss from Morong
• [OPINION] What if there was a spent-fuel pool accident at the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant?
• [OPINION] Nuclear weaponry, its radiation, and human health
• [OPINION] What Chernobyl could have taught us, but hasn’t been allowed to
• [OPINION] Activating BNPP would give cancer to workers and adults living nearby
• [OPINION] Activate BNPP? You could increase childhood cancers in Bataan and beyond
• [OPINION] The Hanford Site: Where nuclear pollution began and still reigns
• [OPINION] Enewetak, Paradise Lost: Enewetak and its people
• [OPINION] The Cold War’s nuclear weapons tests, and the damage and waste they left behind
• [OPINION] Nuclear weapons tests and the dangers of the Runit Dome
• [OPINION] The fates of Enewetak Atoll and its people after the nuclear tests
• [OPINION] The long-term future of nuclear wastes
• [OPINION] Paying respect to our own star
• [OPINION] The paradox of the faint young sun, the origin of life, and the modern cell
• [OPINION] Sunlight and earth-glow
• How the ‘greenhouse effect’ works

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May 14, 2024

April Heat Waves from Gaza to the Philippines Were Made Worse by Climate Change

From Gaza to India to the Philippines, climate change exacerbated often record-breaking extreme heat over the past month

By Andrea Thompson

Displaced Palestinians sit outside to escape the searing heat in their camp tents in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip near the border with Egypt on April 26, 2024.

Mohammed Abed/AFP via Getty Images

Extreme heat has left hundreds of millions of people sweltering in record-breaking temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) over the past few weeks across a broad swath of Asia. From the Palestinian territories in the west to India, Thailand and the Philippines to the east, scorching conditions have caused at least dozens of deaths , ruined crops and forced thousands of school closures. Relentless heat waves have worsened the already precarious conditions for those living in refugee camps and in makeshift housing in dense urban areas. And the 1.2 degrees C of warming the world has already experienced has significantly cranked up such events’ severity, a new analysis shows.

That trend of worse and more frequent heat extremes will only continue in these and other places “if you don’t do anything to stop burning fossil fuels,” says the new study’s lead author, Mariam Zachariah, a researcher at the Grantham Institute–Climate Change and the Environment at Imperial College London.

The analysis was conducted by an international team of researchers called World Weather Attribution (WWA), which uses peer-reviewed methods to look for the fingerprints of climate change in extreme weather events . The scientists use trends in historical temperature data, along with computer models, to compare the severity and frequency of extreme events in today’s real-world climate with those in two projected scenarios. One was a simulated world without human-caused climate change, and another was a future under continued warming.

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The group focused on three areas: “West Asia” (the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Israel, Lebanon, Syria and Jordan), “Southeast Asia” (the Philippines) and “South Asia” (which, in the team’s analysis, included India, Bangladesh, Vietnam and Thailand).

World Weather Attribution, restyled by Amanda Montañez

The team found that the weeks of April heat in South Asia this year were about 45 times more likely and 0.85 degrees C hotter because of human-caused climate change. The researchers had carried out two studies in roughly the same region in 2022 and 2023 , and this year’s trends in temperature data were on par with the earlier results. “This keeps happening every year,” Zachariah says.

In the Philippines, the team analyzed a 15-day period of heat at the end of April. Though this is usually the hottest time of year for the archipelago, the researchers found that an event of this magnitude would not have happened without the influence of climate change—which made this particular heat wave 1.2 degrees C hotter. There was also a discernable impact from this year’s El Niño , which added another 0.2 degree C.

West Asia’s seasonal weather patterns are closer to those of much of Europe and North America, where temperatures usually don’t peak until later in the summer—so the three days in which they rose above 40 degrees C in late April were unusual. The team’s analysis found that climate change made that April heat wave five times more likely and 1.7 degrees C hotter.

Such heat has enormous impacts on people, particularly displaced and impoverished populations with extremely limited means to cope . Zachariah, who has family in India, says relatives “talked about how hard it was to get things done” in the “scorching heat”—and they have had proper housing, which many in the area have lacked. Thousands of schools have shut down in South and Southeast Asia for parts of April and May because of the heat, a situation the researchers say can widen the education gap between high- and low-income families. The heat has also posed a health risk to many who work outdoors, such as construction workers, farmers and truck drivers, and it can mean they earn less money.

Many of the 1.7 million displaced people in Gaza are living in tents that tend to trap heat, and the high temperatures exacerbate drinking water shortages and already dire health conditions. Many in the territory are experiencing famine , and Israel’s bombardments have devastated hospitals and other care facilities.

With greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere continuing to rise (there was a record annual jump in carbon dioxide levels over the past year), events with a similar meteorological setup will be even worse in the future. With two degrees C of warming, heat waves like the recent one in West Asia would become more frequent by a factor of two and would be another one degree C warmer. The heat in the Philippines would become another five times more likely and 0.7 degree C hotter.

“If humans continue to burn fossil fuels, the climate will continue to warm, and vulnerable people will continue to die,” said the new analysis’s co-author Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at the Grantham Institute–Climate Change and the Environment at Imperial College London, in a recent press release.

Many areas, including parts of India and Bangladesh, “will soon reach unlivable conditions,” Zachariah says.

The results point not only to the need to rapidly phase out fossil fuels but also to the necessity of better policies and infrastructure to help people adapt to the damage that has already been done. For example, the analysis mentions that although India has a robust action plan to notify people of extreme heat and advise them on measures they can take to get by, workers need mandatory protections such as rest-shade-rehydrate programs. “We shouldn’t focus only on the numbers we report,” Zachariah says. “It is also extremely important to consider what these numbers contribute to.”