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Essay Writing Guide

Transition Words For Essays

Last updated on: Jun 28, 2024

220 Best Transition Words for Essays

By: Nova A.

15 min read

Reviewed By: Jacklyn H.

Published on: Jul 9, 2019

Writing essays can be hard, and making sure your transitions are smooth is even harder. 

You've probably heard that good essays need good transitions, but what are they? How do you use them in your writing? Also, your essays are assessed according to particular criteria and it is your responsibility to ensure that it is being met.

But don't worry, we are here to help. This blog will give you transition words for essays, including how to choose the right ones and where to place them for maximum impact. Essay writing is a technical process that requires much more effort than simply pouring your thoughts on paper.

If you are new to the concept of transition words and phrases, deep dive into this article in order to find out the secret to improving your essays.

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What Are Transition Words 

Transition words are essential elements in essay writing that create smooth transitions between ideas. 

Think of a transition as a conjunction or a joining word. It helps create strong relationships between ideas, paragraphs, or sentences and assists the readers to understand the word phrases and sentences easily.

As writers, our goal is to communicate our thoughts and ideas in the most clear and logical manner. Especially when presenting complex ideas, we must ensure that they are being conveyed in the most understandable way.

To ensure that your paper is easy to understand, you can work on the sequencing of ideas. Break down your ideas into different sentences and paragraphs then use a transition word or phrase to guide them through these ideas.

Why Should You Use Transitions

The purpose of transition words goes beyond just connectivity. They create a cohesive narrative , allowing your ideas to flow seamlessly from one point to another. These words and phrases act as signposts and indicate relationships. 

These relations could include:

• Cause and Effect
• Comparison and Contrast
• Addition and Emphasis
• Sequence and Order
• Illustration and Example
• Concession and Contradiction
• Summary and Conclusion

They form a bridge and tie sentences together, creating a logical connection. In addition to tying the entire paper together, they help demonstrate the writer’s agreement, disagreement, conclusion, or contrast.

However, keep in mind that just using or including transitional words isn’t enough to highlight relationships between ideas. The content of your paragraphs must support the relationship as well. So, you should avoid overusing them in a paper.

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Types of Transitions

Transitions in essays can be classified into different types based on the relationships they indicate between ideas. Each type serves a specific purpose in guiding readers through your arguments. 

Let's explore some common types of transitions and their examples:

Additive Transitions 

These transitions are used to add information or ideas. They help you expand on your points or provide additional supporting evidence. Examples:

• In addition
• Furthermore
• Additionally
• Not only... but also
• Coupled with

Adversative Transitions

Adversative transitions show contrast or contradiction between ideas. They are used to present opposing viewpoints or highlight differences. Examples:

• Nevertheless
• On the other hand
• In contrast

Causal Transitions

Causal transitions explain cause-and-effect relationships. They help you establish the reasons behind certain outcomes or actions. Examples:

• As a result
• Consequently
• Resulting in
• For this reason

Sequential Transitions

Sequential transitions indicate the order or sequence of events or ideas. They help you present your thoughts in a logical and organized manner. Examples: 

• Subsequently
• In the meantime
• Simultaneously

Comparative Transitions

Comparative transitions highlight similarities or comparisons between ideas. They help you draw connections and illustrate relationships. Here are some transition words for essays examples: 

• In the same way
• Compared to
• In comparison
• Correspondingly
• By the same token
• Equally important
• Analogous to

Getting started on your essay? Check out this insightful read on essay writing to make sure you ace it!

List of Good Transition Words for Essays

As mentioned above, there are different categories of transitions that serve a unique purpose. Understanding these different types will help you pick the most suitable word or phrase to communicate your message.

Here we have categorized the best transition words for essays so you can use them appropriately!

Transition Words for Argumentative Essays

In argumentative essays , the effective use of transition words is essential for presenting a well-structured and coherent argument. 

Transition Words for Compare and Contrast Essays

In compare and contrast essays , transition words play a crucial role in highlighting the similarities and differences between the subjects being compared. 

Here are a few transition words that are particularly useful in compare and contrast essays:

Transition Words for Cause and Effect Essays

In cause and effect essays , transition words help illustrate the relationships between causes and their corresponding effects. 

Here are a few transition words that are particularly useful in cause-and-effect essays:

Transition Words for Different Parts of Essays

Transition words are valuable tools that can be used throughout different parts of an essay to create a smooth and coherent flow. By understanding the appropriate transition words for each section, you can logically connect your ideas. 

Introduction Transition Words for Essays

Introductions are one of the most impactful parts of the essay. It's important that it connects logically with the rest of the essay. To do this, you can utilize different transition words for essays to start. Here are some starting transition words for essays:

Transition Words for Essays Body Paragraph

In an essay, body paragraphs play a crucial role in presenting and developing your ideas. To ensure a logical flow within each body paragraph, the strategic use of transition words is essential.

Here are lists of transitions for essays for different body paragraphs:

Transition Words for Essays for First Body Paragraph

Here is a list of transition words that you can use for the first body paragraph of an essay:

Transition Words for Essays Second Body Paragraph

Here is a list of transition words for the second body paragraph of an essay:

Transition Words for Essays Third Body Paragraph

Transition Words for Essays Last Body Paragraph

Transition Words for Essays Conclusion 

Here is a list of ending transition words for essays:

Do’s and Don’ts of Using Essay Transitions

When it comes to using transitions in your essay, there are certain do's and don'ts that can help you effectively enhance the flow of your writing. Here are some key guidelines to keep in mind:

• Add transitions only when introducing new ideas.
• Go through the paper to make sure they make sense.
• Start by creating an outline, so you know what ideas to share and how.
• Use different transitions for each idea.
• Don’t overuse them.
• Don’t keep adding transitions in the same paragraph.
• Don’t completely rely on transitions to signal relationships.
• Don’t incorporate it into your content without understanding its usage.

By now, you have probably understood how transition words can save you from disjointed and directionless paragraphs. They are the missing piece that indicates how ideas are related to one another. You can also generate more essays with our AI powered essay writer to learn the art of transitioning smoothly from one paragraph to another. 

If you are still unable to distinguish transitions to open or conclude your essays, don’t be upset - these things require time and practice.

If you are looking for the perfect essay-writing service, get in touch with the expert writers at 5StarEssays.com. We will include the right transitions according to the type of paper, ensuring a coherent flow of ideas.

Just say ‘ write my essay ’ now and let our essay writer create quality content at the most pocket-friendly rates available.

As a Digital Content Strategist, Nova Allison has eight years of experience in writing both technical and scientific content. With a focus on developing online content plans that engage audiences, Nova strives to write pieces that are not only informative but captivating as well.

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Some experts argue that focusing on individual actions to combat climate change takes the focus away from the collective action required to keep carbon levels from rising. Change will not be effected, say some others, unless individual actions raise the necessary awareness.

While a reader can see the connection between the sentences above, it’s not immediately clear that the second sentence is providing a counterargument to the first. In the example below, key “old information” is repeated in the second sentence to help readers quickly see the connection. This makes the sequence of ideas easier to follow.  

Sentence pair #2: Effective Transition

Some experts argue that focusing on individual actions to combat climate change takes the focus away from the collective action required to keep carbon levels from rising. Other experts argue that individual actions are key to raising the awareness necessary to effect change.

You can use this same technique to create clear transitions between paragraphs. Here’s an example:

Some experts argue that focusing on individual actions to combat climate change takes the focus away from the collective action required to keep carbon levels from rising. Other experts argue that individual actions are key to raising the awareness necessary to effect change. According to Annie Lowery, individual actions are important to making social change because when individuals take action, they can change values, which can lead to more people becoming invested in fighting climate change. She writes, “Researchers believe that these kinds of household-led trends can help avert climate catastrophe, even if government and corporate actions are far more important” (Lowery).

So, what’s an individual household supposed to do?

The repetition of the word “household” in the new paragraph helps readers see the connection between what has come before (a discussion of whether household actions matter) and what is about to come (a proposal for what types of actions households can take to combat climate change).

Sometimes, transitional words can help readers see how ideas are connected. But it’s not enough to just include a “therefore,” “moreover,” “also,” or “in addition.” You should choose these words carefully to show your readers what kind of connection you are making between your ideas.

To decide which transitional word to use, start by identifying the relationship between your ideas. For example, you might be

• making a comparison or showing a contrast Transitional words that compare and contrast include also, in the same way, similarly, in contrast, yet, on the one hand, on the other hand. But before you signal comparison, ask these questions: Do your readers need another example of the same thing? Is there a new nuance in this next point that distinguishes it from the previous example? For those relationships between ideas, you might try this type of transition: While x may appear the same, it actually raises a new question in a slightly different way. 
• expressing agreement or disagreement When you are making an argument, you need to signal to readers where you stand in relation to other scholars and critics. You may agree with another person’s claim, you may want to concede some part of the argument even if you don’t agree with everything, or you may disagree. Transitional words that signal agreement, concession, and disagreement include however, nevertheless, actually, still, despite, admittedly, still, on the contrary, nonetheless .
• showing cause and effect Transitional phrases that show cause and effect include therefore, hence, consequently, thus, so. Before you choose one of these words, make sure that what you are about to illustrate is really a causal link. Novice writers tend to add therefore and hence when they aren’t sure how to transition; you should reserve these words for when they accurately signal the progression of your ideas.
• explaining or elaborating Transitions can signal to readers that you are going to expand on a point that you have just made or explain something further. Transitional words that signal explanation or elaboration include in other words, for example, for instance, in particular, that is, to illustrate, moreover .
• drawing conclusions You can use transitions to signal to readers that you are moving from the body of your argument to your conclusions. Before you use transitional words to signal conclusions, consider whether you can write a stronger conclusion by creating a transition that shows the relationship between your ideas rather than by flagging the paragraph simply as a conclusion. Transitional words that signal a conclusion include in conclusion , as a result, ultimately, overall— but strong conclusions do not necessarily have to include those phrases.

If you’re not sure which transitional words to use—or whether to use one at all—see if you can explain the connection between your paragraphs or sentence either out loud or in the margins of your draft.

For example, if you write a paragraph in which you summarize physician Atul Gawande’s argument about the value of incremental care, and then you move on to a paragraph that challenges those ideas, you might write down something like this next to the first paragraph: “In this paragraph I summarize Gawande’s main claim.” Then, next to the second paragraph, you might write, “In this paragraph I present a challenge to Gawande’s main claim.” Now that you have identified the relationship between those two paragraphs, you can choose the most effective transition between them. Since the second paragraph in this example challenges the ideas in the first, you might begin with something like “but,” or “however,” to signal that shift for your readers.  

• picture_as_pdf Transitions

Transitional Words and Phrases

One of your primary goals as a writer is to present ideas in a clear and understandable way. To help readers move through your complex ideas, you want to be intentional about how you structure your paper as a whole as well as how you form the individual paragraphs that comprise it. In order to think through the challenges of presenting your ideas articulately, logically, and in ways that seem natural to your readers, check out some of these resources: Developing a Thesis Statement , Paragraphing , and Developing Strategic Transitions: Writing that Establishes Relationships and Connections Between Ideas.

While clear writing is mostly achieved through the deliberate sequencing of your ideas across your entire paper, you can guide readers through the connections you’re making by using transitional words in individual sentences. Transitional words and phrases can create powerful links between your ideas and can help your reader understand your paper’s logic.

In what follows, we’ve included a list of frequently used transitional words and phrases that can help you establish how your various ideas relate to each other. We’ve divided these words and phrases into categories based on the common kinds of relationships writers establish between ideas.

Two recommendations: Use these transitions strategically by making sure that the word or phrase you’re choosing matches the logic of the relationship you’re emphasizing or the connection you’re making. All of these words and phrases have different meanings, nuances, and connotations, so before using a particular transitional word in your paper, be sure you understand its meaning and usage completely, and be sure that it’s the right match for your paper’s logic. Use these transitional words and phrases sparingly because if you use too many of them, your readers might feel like you are overexplaining connections that are already clear.

Categories of Transition Words and Phrases

Causation Chronology Combinations Contrast Example

Importance Location Similarity Clarification Concession

Conclusion Intensification Purpose Summary

Transitions to help establish some of the most common kinds of relationships

Causation– Connecting instigator(s) to consequence(s).

accordingly as a result and so because

consequently for that reason hence on account of

since therefore thus

Chronology– Connecting what issues in regard to when they occur.

after afterwards always at length during earlier following immediately in the meantime

later never next now once simultaneously so far sometimes

soon subsequently then this time until now when whenever while

Combinations Lists– Connecting numerous events. Part/Whole– Connecting numerous elements that make up something bigger.

additionally again also and, or, not as a result besides even more

finally first, firstly further furthermore in addition in the first place in the second place

last, lastly moreover next second, secondly, etc. too

Contrast– Connecting two things by focusing on their differences.

after all although and yet at the same time but

despite however in contrast nevertheless nonetheless notwithstanding

on the contrary on the other hand otherwise though yet

Example– Connecting a general idea to a particular instance of this idea.

as an illustration e.g., (from a Latin abbreviation for “for example”)

for example for instance specifically that is

to demonstrate to illustrate

Importance– Connecting what is critical to what is more inconsequential.

chiefly critically

foundationally most importantly

of less importance primarily

Location– Connecting elements according to where they are placed in relationship to each other.

above adjacent to below beyond

centrally here nearby neighboring on

opposite to peripherally there wherever

Similarity– Connecting to things by suggesting that they are in some way alike.

by the same token in like manner

in similar fashion here in the same way

likewise wherever

Other kinds of transitional words and phrases Clarification

i.e., (from a Latin abbreviation for “that is”) in other words

that is that is to say to clarify to explain

to put it another way to rephrase it

granted it is true

naturally of course

finally lastly

in conclusion in the end

to conclude

Intensification

in fact indeed no

of course surely to repeat

undoubtedly without doubt yes

for this purpose in order that

so that to that end

to this end

in brief in sum

in summary in short

to sum up to summarize

Improving Your Writing Style

This is an accordion element with a series of buttons that open and close related content panels.

Clear, Concise Sentences

Use the active voice

Put the action in the verb

Tidy up wordy phrases

Reduce wordy verbs

Reduce prepositional phrases

Reduce expletive constructions

Avoid using vague nouns

Avoid unneccessarily inflated words

Avoid noun strings

Connecting Ideas Through Transitions

Using Transitional Words and Phrases

How To Write An Essay

Transition Words For Essays

Last updated on: Jul 10, 2024

A Detailed List of Transition Words for Essays (2024 Updated)

By: Cordon J.

11 min read

Reviewed By: Melisa C.

Published on: Mar 22, 2023

Writing an essay is all about expressing ideas. But ideas must be logically connected to each other to make sense.

That’s where transition words come in! Transition words and phrases are used to maintain a coherent relationship between ideas.

If you are wondering ‘What are some good transition words for essays’ or ‘Where can I find them?’ then we have you covered!

Here’s a comprehensive list of transition words for essays that will help you out!

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What are Transition Words for Essays?

If you are writing an essay , then you must have used transition words knowingly or unknowingly. 

Transition words act as links that connect ideas and thoughts in an essay while maintaining a logical flow. These linking phrases are necessary for the transition from one idea to another to be smooth and easy to follow.

Let’s take a look at this example with and without transition words for your understanding:

As you can see, the example without transition words feels disconnected and weird to read. 

While these transitions are important for a logical flow and creating a connection, excessive use can lead to confusion and a loss of focus for the audience. 

Transition Words for Different Parts of Essay

When writing a well-structured essay, it is important to use transition words throughout different sections. Here are some transition words for essay examples for you to consider for each section:

Beginning Transition Words for Essays

Here are some amazing transition words for essays to start a paragraph:

• In the first place
• To begin with
• At the outset
• In the beginning
• Introduction to
• Opening with
• Preliminarily

Transition Words for Essays First Body Paragraph

Here are some transition words for essays body paragraph one:

• To start with
• Additionally
• Furthermore
• In addition to
• Firstly and most importantly
• In support of this
• Not only... but also
• Equally important

Transition Words for Essays Second Body Paragraph

Here are some suitable words for the second body paragraph:

• Secondly, another key point is
• Building on this
• Moreover, another factor to consider is
• In the same vein

Transition Words for Essays Third Body Paragraph 

Consider using these words for the third body paragraph:

• In conclusion
• To conclude
• Conclusively
• As a result

Transition Words for Essays Conclusion 

Here are some ending transition words for essays to use:

• Consequently
• As a final point

List of Transition Words for Different Types of Essays

As a student, you have to write different types of essays . But have you ever considered that the essays might have different transition words? 

Here's a breakdown of transition words tailored for different essay types:

Transition Words for Expository Essays

Transition words for an expository essay help guide the reader through the logical progression of ideas. Consider using these transition words in your expository essays:

• For example
• In other words
• Specifically
• To illustrate
• As an illustration
• In particular
• To explain further

Transition Words for Analytical Essays

Transition words for an analytical essay help transition between different analyses or points of view. Here are some transition words suitable for analysis essays:

• In the same way
• On the contrary

Transition Words for Synthesis Essays

Transition words for a synthesis essay help blend ideas seamlessly. You can use these words in your synthesis essays:

• In a similar vein
• Correspondingly
• In addition
• On the same note
• Along the same lines

Transition Words for Cause and Effect Essays

Transition words for a cause and effect essay help indicate causal relationships and transitions between causes and effects. Here are some transition words suitable for cause and effect essays:

• Accordingly
• Resulting in

Transition Words for Informative Essays

Transition words for an informative essay help organize information and guide the reader through complex concepts. Consider using these transition words in your informative essays:

• On the other hand
• Nonetheless

Transition Words for Compare and Contrast Essays

A compare and contrast essay analyzes the similarities and differences between two or more subjects. Here are some transition words suitable for compare and contrast essays:

• In contrast

Transition Words for Persuasive Essays

Transition words for a persuasive essay help strengthen arguments and make them more persuasive. Consider using these transition words in your persuasive essays:

• For this reason

Transition Words for Various Academic Levels

Transition words are essential for enhancing the coherence and flow of essays across different academic levels. Here are different types of transition words for various academic levels:

Transition Words for Essays 4th Grade

For fourth-grade essays, it's crucial to use transition words that are simple and easy to understand. Consider using the following words:

Starting Transition Words for Essays 5th Grade

Fifth-grade essays require slightly more sophisticated transition words to introduce ideas effectively. Here are some words you can use:

• On the one hand
• For one thing

Strong Transition Words for Essays 6th Grade

Transition words for sixth-grade essays should help create smoother transitions between ideas. Consider using the following strong transition words for sixth-grade essays:

• Nevertheless

Transition Words for Essays Middle School

Middle school essays benefit from transition words that strike a balance between simplicity and sophistication. Look at these transition words for middle school essays:

• For instance

Transition Words for Essays High School

Transition words for high school essays should reflect a higher level of complexity and critical thinking. Consider using the following transition words for high school essays:

• Concurrently
• Contrariwise
• Subsequently

Advanced Transition Words for Essays College

College-level essays require advanced transition words that demonstrate a sophisticated understanding of the subject matter. The following transition words are suitable for the college students:

• Notwithstanding
• Concomitantly
• Inasmuch as
• Quintessentially

Transition Words According to Purpose

Here's a breakdown of transition words according to their purpose:

Additive Transition Words

Additive transition words are used to add information, reinforce ideas, or show agreement between different points. Consider using the following additive transition words:

Spatial Transition Words

Spatial transition words help organize ideas based on space or location. They are particularly useful when describing physical objects, locations, or spatial relationships. Here are some useful spatial transition words:

• In front of
• On the left/right
• Across from

Transition Words for Sequence/Order

Transition words for sequence or order help organize ideas chronologically or sequentially. Consider using the following transition words for sequence or order:

• In the meantime

Transition Words for Similarity

Transition words for similarity help compare or relate similar ideas, concepts, or characteristics in writing. Consider using the following transition words for similarity:

• Analogously
• Comparable to

Transition Words Used for Contradiction/Opposition

Transition words used for contradiction or opposition signal disagreement or contradiction between different ideas or viewpoints. Consider using the following transition words for contradiction or opposition:

• In spite of
• Even though

Transition Words Used for Emphasis

Transition words used for emphasis help draw attention to specific points, ideas, or arguments in writing. Consider using the following transition words for emphasis:

• Particularly
• Importantly
• Most importantly

Example/Supporting Transitions

Example or supporting transitions help provide evidence, examples, or support for specific points or arguments in writing. Consider using the following example/supporting transitions:

• As an example
• As evidence

Tips on How to Use Transition Words in Essays

Transition words are crucial for creating coherence and flow in your essays. Here are some tips on how to effectively use transition words in your writing:

Choose Appropriate Transition Words

Select transition words that are suitable for the relationship you want to convey between ideas. For example, if you're adding information, use additive transition words like "furthermore" or "in addition." If you're comparing ideas, use transition words such as "similarly" or "likewise."

Place Them Strategically

Place transition words at key points in your essay where you transition from one idea to the next or from one paragraph to another. This helps maintain the flow of your writing and keeps your reader engaged.

Use Variety

Avoid overusing the same transition words throughout your essay. Instead, use a variety of transition words to add complexity and sophistication to your writing. This shows your ability to express ideas in different ways and keeps your writing interesting.

Check for Coherence

After writing your essay, review it to ensure that transition words are used effectively to create coherence and logical progression. Make sure each transition word serves its intended purpose and helps clarify the relationship between ideas.

Like any aspect of writing, using transition words effectively takes practice. Experiment with different transition words and pay attention to how they impact the flow and clarity of your writing. 

So there you have it!

The list of transitional words mentioned above will give you an idea to organize your thoughts logically. It might take some time for you to learn to use these words. 

But if you still feel that the essay is not conveying the information properly, hire a professional essay writing service at MyPerfectPaper.net.

MyPerfectPaper.net is known and trusted for being a reliable paper writing service for students. 

The team of experts will help you guide through the necessary steps to write a perfect paper without any confusion. Reach out to us today and let our essay writer fulfill your writing request for you in no time. 

Running out of ideas for your essay? Our AI essay generator sparks creativity and generates unique content in seconds. Try it now and see your ideas come to life!

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

What are the 5 examples of transitions.

Although there are many transition words, 5 major types are:

• Addition - also, moreover, in addition to, etc. 
• Comparison - similarly, similar to, in the same way, etc. 
• Concession - granted, provided, given that, etc. 
• Sequence - firstly, secondly, finally, etc. 
• Example - for instance, for example, etc. 

How do you transition to a new paragraph?

You can transition to a new paragraph by adding a transition word or transitional phrase at the start or end of the topic sentence. It may or may not be added to the topic sentence of all paragraphs. Some can make a logical transition as well.

Literature, Marketing

Cordon. is a published author and writing specialist. He has worked in the publishing industry for many years, providing writing services and digital content. His own writing career began with a focus on literature and linguistics, which he continues to pursue. Cordon is an engaging and professional individual, always looking to help others achieve their goals.

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Transitions

What this handout is about.

In this crazy, mixed-up world of ours, transitions glue our ideas and our essays together. This handout will introduce you to some useful transitional expressions and help you employ them effectively.

The function and importance of transitions

In both academic writing and professional writing, your goal is to convey information clearly and concisely, if not to convert the reader to your way of thinking. Transitions help you to achieve these goals by establishing logical connections between sentences, paragraphs, and sections of your papers. In other words, transitions tell readers what to do with the information you present to them. Whether single words, quick phrases, or full sentences, they function as signs that tell readers how to think about, organize, and react to old and new ideas as they read through what you have written.

Transitions signal relationships between ideas—relationships such as: “Another example coming up—stay alert!” or “Here’s an exception to my previous statement” or “Although this idea appears to be true, here’s the real story.” Basically, transitions provide the reader with directions for how to piece together your ideas into a logically coherent argument. Transitions are not just verbal decorations that embellish your paper by making it sound or read better. They are words with particular meanings that tell the reader to think and react in a particular way to your ideas. In providing the reader with these important cues, transitions help readers understand the logic of how your ideas fit together.

Signs that you might need to work on your transitions

How can you tell whether you need to work on your transitions? Here are some possible clues:

• Your instructor has written comments like “choppy,” “jumpy,” “abrupt,” “flow,” “need signposts,” or “how is this related?” on your papers.
• Your readers (instructors, friends, or classmates) tell you that they had trouble following your organization or train of thought.
• You tend to write the way you think—and your brain often jumps from one idea to another pretty quickly.
• You wrote your paper in several discrete “chunks” and then pasted them together.
• You are working on a group paper; the draft you are working on was created by pasting pieces of several people’s writing together.

Organization

Since the clarity and effectiveness of your transitions will depend greatly on how well you have organized your paper, you may want to evaluate your paper’s organization before you work on transitions. In the margins of your draft, summarize in a word or short phrase what each paragraph is about or how it fits into your analysis as a whole. This exercise should help you to see the order of and connection between your ideas more clearly.

If after doing this exercise you find that you still have difficulty linking your ideas together in a coherent fashion, your problem may not be with transitions but with organization. For help in this area (and a more thorough explanation of the “reverse outlining” technique described in the previous paragraph), please see the Writing Center’s handout on organization .

How transitions work

The organization of your written work includes two elements: (1) the order in which you have chosen to present the different parts of your discussion or argument, and (2) the relationships you construct between these parts. Transitions cannot substitute for good organization, but they can make your organization clearer and easier to follow. Take a look at the following example:

El Pais , a Latin American country, has a new democratic government after having been a dictatorship for many years. Assume that you want to argue that El Pais is not as democratic as the conventional view would have us believe.

One way to effectively organize your argument would be to present the conventional view and then to provide the reader with your critical response to this view. So, in Paragraph A you would enumerate all the reasons that someone might consider El Pais highly democratic, while in Paragraph B you would refute these points. The transition that would establish the logical connection between these two key elements of your argument would indicate to the reader that the information in paragraph B contradicts the information in paragraph A. As a result, you might organize your argument, including the transition that links paragraph A with paragraph B, in the following manner:

Paragraph A: points that support the view that El Pais’s new government is very democratic.

Transition: Despite the previous arguments, there are many reasons to think that El Pais’s new government is not as democratic as typically believed.

Paragraph B: points that contradict the view that El Pais’s new government is very democratic.

In this case, the transition words “Despite the previous arguments,” suggest that the reader should not believe paragraph A and instead should consider the writer’s reasons for viewing El Pais’s democracy as suspect.

As the example suggests, transitions can help reinforce the underlying logic of your paper’s organization by providing the reader with essential information regarding the relationship between your ideas. In this way, transitions act as the glue that binds the components of your argument or discussion into a unified, coherent, and persuasive whole.

Types of transitions

Now that you have a general idea of how to go about developing effective transitions in your writing, let us briefly discuss the types of transitions your writing will use.

The types of transitions available to you are as diverse as the circumstances in which you need to use them. A transition can be a single word, a phrase, a sentence, or an entire paragraph. In each case, it functions the same way: First, the transition either directly summarizes the content of a preceding sentence, paragraph, or section or implies such a summary (by reminding the reader of what has come before). Then, it helps the reader anticipate or comprehend the new information that you wish to present.

• Transitions between sections: Particularly in longer works, it may be necessary to include transitional paragraphs that summarize for the reader the information just covered and specify the relevance of this information to the discussion in the following section.
• Transitions between paragraphs: If you have done a good job of arranging paragraphs so that the content of one leads logically to the next, the transition will highlight a relationship that already exists by summarizing the previous paragraph and suggesting something of the content of the paragraph that follows. A transition between paragraphs can be a word or two (however, for example, similarly), a phrase, or a sentence. Transitions can be at the end of the first paragraph, at the beginning of the second paragraph, or in both places.
• Transitions within paragraphs: As with transitions between sections and paragraphs, transitions within paragraphs act as cues by helping readers to anticipate what is coming before they read it. Within paragraphs, transitions tend to be single words or short phrases.

Transitional expressions

Effectively constructing each transition often depends upon your ability to identify words or phrases that will indicate for the reader the kind of logical relationships you want to convey. The table below should make it easier for you to find these words or phrases. Whenever you have trouble finding a word, phrase, or sentence to serve as an effective transition, refer to the information in the table for assistance. Look in the left column of the table for the kind of logical relationship you are trying to express. Then look in the right column of the table for examples of words or phrases that express this logical relationship.

Keep in mind that each of these words or phrases may have a slightly different meaning. Consult a dictionary or writer’s handbook if you are unsure of the exact meaning of a word or phrase.

You may reproduce it for non-commercial use if you use the entire handout and attribute the source: The Writing Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

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33 Transition Words and Phrases

Transitional terms give writers the opportunity to prepare readers for a new idea, connecting the previous sentence to the next one.

Many transitional words are nearly synonymous: words that broadly indicate that “this follows logically from the preceding” include accordingly, therefore, and consequently . Words that mean “in addition to” include moreover, besides, and further . Words that mean “contrary to what was just stated” include however, nevertheless , and nonetheless .

as a result : THEREFORE : CONSEQUENTLY

The executive’s flight was delayed and they accordingly arrived late.

in or by way of addition : FURTHERMORE

The mountain has many marked hiking trails; additionally, there are several unmarked trails that lead to the summit.

at a later or succeeding time : SUBSEQUENTLY, THEREAFTER

Afterward, she got a promotion.

even though : ALTHOUGH

She appeared as a guest star on the show, albeit briefly.

in spite of the fact that : even though —used when making a statement that differs from or contrasts with a statement you have just made

They are good friends, although they don't see each other very often.

in addition to what has been said : MOREOVER, FURTHERMORE

I can't go, and besides, I wouldn't go if I could.

as a result : in view of the foregoing : ACCORDINGLY

The words are often confused and are consequently misused.

in a contrasting or opposite way —used to introduce a statement that contrasts with a previous statement or presents a differing interpretation or possibility

Large objects appear to be closer. Conversely, small objects seem farther away.

used to introduce a statement that is somehow different from what has just been said

These problems are not as bad as they were. Even so, there is much more work to be done.

used as a stronger way to say "though" or "although"

I'm planning to go even though it may rain.

in addition : MOREOVER

I had some money to invest, and, further, I realized that the risk was small.

in addition to what precedes : BESIDES —used to introduce a statement that supports or adds to a previous statement

These findings seem plausible. Furthermore, several studies have confirmed them.

because of a preceding fact or premise : for this reason : THEREFORE

He was a newcomer and hence had no close friends here.

from this point on : starting now

She announced that henceforth she would be running the company.

in spite of that : on the other hand —used when you are saying something that is different from or contrasts with a previous statement

I'd like to go; however, I'd better not.

as something more : BESIDES —used for adding information to a statement

The city has the largest population in the country and in addition is a major shipping port.

all things considered : as a matter of fact —used when making a statement that adds to or strengthens a previous statement

He likes to have things his own way; indeed, he can be very stubborn.

for fear that —often used after an expression denoting fear or apprehension

He was concerned lest anyone think that he was guilty.

in addition : ALSO —often used to introduce a statement that adds to and is related to a previous statement

She is an acclaimed painter who is likewise a sculptor.

at or during the same time : in the meantime

You can set the table. Meanwhile, I'll start making dinner.

BESIDES, FURTHER : in addition to what has been said —used to introduce a statement that supports or adds to a previous statement

It probably wouldn't work. Moreover, it would be very expensive to try it.

in spite of that : HOWEVER

It was a predictable, but nevertheless funny, story.

in spite of what has just been said : NEVERTHELESS

The hike was difficult, but fun nonetheless.

without being prevented by (something) : despite—used to say that something happens or is true even though there is something that might prevent it from happening or being true

Notwithstanding their youth and inexperience, the team won the championship.

if not : or else

Finish your dinner. Otherwise, you won't get any dessert.

more correctly speaking —used to introduce a statement that corrects what you have just said

We can take the car, or rather, the van.

in spite of that —used to say that something happens or is true even though there is something that might prevent it from happening or being true

I tried again and still I failed.

by that : by that means

He signed the contract, thereby forfeiting his right to the property.

for that reason : because of that

This tablet is thin and light and therefore very convenient to carry around.

immediately after that

The committee reviewed the documents and thereupon decided to accept the proposal.

because of this or that : HENCE, CONSEQUENTLY

This detergent is highly concentrated and thus you will need to dilute it.

while on the contrary —used to make a statement that describes how two people, groups, etc., are different

Some of these species have flourished, whereas others have struggled.

NEVERTHELESS, HOWEVER —used to introduce a statement that adds something to a previous statement and usually contrasts with it in some way

It was pouring rain out, yet his clothes didn’t seem very wet.

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54 Best Transition Words for Paragraphs

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Good transition words for starting a paragraph include addition phrases like ‘furthermore’, cause and effect words like ‘consequently’, and contradiction words like ‘however’. Scroll down for a full table of transition words.

Using transition words in your writing can help you improve the readability and flow of your paragraph to the next.

These words help your text flow seamlessly into the next idea, which shows your readers the relationship between paragraphs and phrases.

List of Transition Words for Starting a Paragraph

Transition words can fall into more than one category based on what type of transition in your paragraph you’re planning to make.

For example, you’d want a different transition word if your second paragraph contradicts your first than if it supports it. Take the following examples:

Here is a list of transition words and what category they fall under.

• Addition – A transition that combines two or more ideas and shows their relationship. Examples include, what’s more, equally important, again, also, and, furthermore, moreover, besides .
• Cause and Effect – When one idea triggers another. This lets the reader know that they are directly connected. Examples include, consequently, hence, therefore, thus, next, as a result .
• Clarification – This is to rephrase what was said to clarify a statement and provide emphasis. Examples include, in other words, that is to say, to clarify.
• Compare and Contrast – This shows a relationship between two ideas that are compared based on differences or similarities. Examples are, after all, although this may be true, in contrast, likewise, on the contrary, similarly, whereas, yet.
• Emphasis (Boosting) – This shows certainty. Examples include, emphatically, in fact, surprisingly, undeniably, in any case, indeed, never, without a doubt.
• Providing examples : For example, for instance, as illustrated by, take the following case in point.
• Exception or Contradiction – This happens when an action with a pre-conceived notion ends with a different action. Examples are, however, nevertheless, in spite of, of course, once in a while, despite.
• Summarize or conclude – This signals the reader that they are at the end of the paragraph. Examples are, as this essay has shown, as a result, In conclusion, therefore, thus, hence, in short, in brief.
• Sequential – This expresses a numerical sequence, conclusion, continuation, resumption, or summation. Examples are to change the topic, to conclude with, afterward, incidentally, by the way, initially.

List of Transition Words for New Paragraphs

Transition Words to Avoid

I recommend avoiding the following transition words:

Examples in Sentences

The best way to understand transition words is to provide examples. Let’s look at this sentence:

“Amy did not study for her test. Therefore, she did not get a good result.”

When you see the word ‘therefore,’ the reader knows that this is a cause and effect. What happened in the first sentence caused a resulting action.

The transition word provided a seamless flow into the next sentence that describes this effect.

Using the transitional word, ‘therefore,’ shows that the two sentences are part of one idea/process. Even with skimming, the reader can guess what’s the resulting action. This is how transition words hold your ideas together. Without them, it’s like your piece is just a jumble of coherent words.

Transition words don’t have to be placed at the start of a sentence. Let’s look at this sentence:

“Many people came to the event. Cristine, Emily, and David, for instance.”

In this sentence, ‘for instance’ is at the end of the sentence. However, it still gives the reader the necessary information to see how the two sentences are linked.

What are Transition Words?

Transition words for beginning paragraphs help writers to introduce a shift, opposition, contrast, agreement, emphasis, purpose, result, or conclusion from what was previously written. They are essential in argumentative essays.

Transition words are like bridges between the different paragraphs in your pieces. They serve as the cues that help your reader understand your ideas. They carry your ideas from one sentence to the next and one paragraph to the next.

Transitional words and phrases link an idea from a sentence to the following paragraph, so your work is read smoothly without abrupt jumps or sudden breaks between concepts.

Why use Transition Words

Proper communication of your ideas through paragraphs is important in writing. In order for your reader to read your piece with a thorough understanding of each idea and point conveyed in the piece, you have to use transition words and phrases.

With the examples provided, you would see that transitions string together your ideas by establishing a clear connection between the sentences and paragraphs.

Without transition words, your work may seem daunting and stressful to read, and the reader will not understand the idea you’re trying to convey.

Transitional phrases are especially important when writing an essay or thesis statement , as each paragraph has to connect ideas effortlessly.

Therefore, when a paragraph ends, the next idea must have some link to the previous one, which is why transition words play an important role.

Where Else to use Transition Words in an Essay

Transition words are important English devices for essays and papers. They enhance the transitions and connections between the sentences and paragraphs, giving your essay a flowing structure and logical thought.

Transition terms may seem easy to remember; however, placing them in the incorrect manner can cause your essay to fall flat.

Here are some places where essays transition words may fit:

• To show a connection between evidence and the ending
• To flow into the next paragraph, use your closing statement at the conclusion of each one
• At the start of the first body paragraph
• At the start of the second body paragraph
• In some of the starting sections of your summary or introductory paragraphs
• In an overview of your opinions/solutions in the conclusion

When adding your transition words and phrases in your essay, make sure not to accidentally form an incomplete or fragmented sentence. This is common with transitions, such as, if, although, and since .

While transition words are important in any writing piece, you have to make sure that the word or phrase you choose matches the logic of the paragraph or point you’re making. Use these words and phrases in moderation, as too much of them can also heavily bring the quality of your work down.

• Chris Drew (PhD) https://helpfulprofessor.com/author/chris-drew-phd-2/ 25 Number Games for Kids (Free and Easy)
• Chris Drew (PhD) https://helpfulprofessor.com/author/chris-drew-phd-2/ 25 Word Games for Kids (Free and Easy)
• Chris Drew (PhD) https://helpfulprofessor.com/author/chris-drew-phd-2/ 25 Outdoor Games for Kids
• Chris Drew (PhD) https://helpfulprofessor.com/author/chris-drew-phd-2/ 50 Incentives to Give to Students

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Writing Studio

Common transition words and phrases.

In an effort to make our handouts more accessible, we have begun converting our PDF handouts to web pages. Download this page as a PDF: Transitions Return to Writing Studio Handouts

Transitions clarify the logic of your argument by orienting your reader as you develop ideas between sentences and paragraphs. These tools should alert readers to shifts in your argument while and also maintain the smoothness and clarity of your prose. Below, you’ll find some of the most commonly used transition categories and examples of each. Depending on the example, these suggestions may be within sentences or at the beginning of sentences.

Transitions by Category

1. addition.

Use when presenting multiple ideas that flow in the same direction, under the same heading/ idea also, another, finally, first, first of all, for one thing, furthermore, in addition, last of all, likewise, moreover, next, and, second, the third reason

2. Sequence/ Order

Use to suggest a temporal relationship between ideas; places evidence in sequence first, second (etc.), next, last, finally, first of all, concurrently, immediately, prior to, then, at that time, at this point, previously, subsequently, and then, at this time, thereafter, previously, soon, before, after, followed by, after that, next, before, after, meanwhile, formerly, finally, during

3. Contrast

Use to demonstrate differences between ideas or change in argument direction but, however, in contrast, on the other hand, on the contrary, yet, differ, difference, balanced against, differing from, variation, still, on the contrary, unlike, conversely, otherwise, on the other hand, however

4. Exception

Use to introduce an opposing idea however, whereas, on the other hand, while, instead, in spite of, yet, despite, still, nevertheless, even though, in contrast, but, but one could also say…

5. Comparison

Use to demonstrate similarities between ideas that may not be under the same subject heading or within the same paragraph like, likewise, just, in a different way / sense, whereas, like, equally, in like manner, by comparison, similar to, in the same way, alike, similarity, similarly, just as, as in a similar fashion, conversely

6. Illustration

Use to develop or clarify an idea, to introduce examples, or to show that the second idea is subordinate to the first for example, to illustrate, on this occasion, this can be seen, in this case, specifically, once, to illustrate, when/where, for instance, such as, to demonstrate, take the case of, in this case

7. Location

Use to show spatial relations next to, above, below, beneath, left, right, behind, in front, on top, within

8. Cause and Effect

Use to show that one idea causes, or results from, the idea that follows or precedes it because, therefore, so that, cause, reason, effect, thus, consequently, since, as a result, if…then, result in

9. Emphasis

Use to suggest that an idea is particularly important to your argument important to note, most of all, a significant factor, a primary concern, a key feature, remember that, pay particular attention to, a central issue, the most substantial issue, the main value, a major event, the chief factor, a distinctive quality, especially valuable, the chief outcome, a vital force, especially relevant, most noteworthy, the principal item, above all, should be noted

10. Summary or Conclusion

Use to signal that what follows is summarizing or concluding the previous ideas; in humanities papers, use these phrases sparingly. to summarize, in short, in brief, in sum, in summary, to sum up, in conclusion, to conclude, finally

Some material adapted from Cal Poly Pomona College Reading Skills Program and “ Power Tools for Technical Communication .” 

Writing Effective Sentence Transitions (Advanced)

Transitions are the rhetorical tools that clarify the logic of your argument by orienting your reader as you develop ideas between sentences and paragraphs. The ability to integrate sentence transitions into your prose, rather than simply throwing in overt transition signals like “in addition,” indicates your mastery of the material. (Note: The visibility of transitions may vary by discipline; consult with your professor to get a better sense of discipline or assignment specific expectations.)

Transition Signals

Transition signals are words or phrases that indicate the logic connecting sets of information or ideas. Signals like therefore, on the other hand, for example, because, then, and afterwards can be good transition tools at the sentence and paragraph level. When using these signals, be conscious of the real meaning of these terms; they should reflect the actual relationship between ideas.

Review Words

Review words are transition tools that link groups of sentences or whole paragraphs. They condense preceding discussion into a brief word or phrase. For example: You’ve just completed a detailed discussion about the greenhouse effect. To transition to the next topic, you could use review words like “this heat-trapping process” to refer back to the green house effect discussion. The relative ability to determine a cogent set of review words might signal your own understanding of your work; think of review words as super-short summaries of key ideas.

Preview words

Preview words condense an upcoming discussion into a brief word or phrase. For example: You’ve just explained how heat is trapped in the earth’s atmosphere. Transitioning to the theory that humans are adding to that effect, you could use preview words like “sources of additional CO2 in the atmosphere include” to point forward to that discussion.

Transition Sentences

The strongest and most sophisticated tools, transition sentences indicate the connection between the preceding and upcoming pieces of your argument. They often contain one or more of the above transition tools. For example: You’ve just discussed how much CO2 humans have added to the atmosphere. You need to transition to a discussion of the effects. A strong set of transition sentences between the two sections might sound like this:

“These large amounts of CO2 added to the atmosphere may lead to a number of disastrous consequences for residents of planet earth. The rise in global temperature that accompanies the extra CO2 can yield effects as varied as glacial melting and species extinction.”

In the first sentence, the review words are “These large amounts of CO2 added to the atmosphere”; the preview words are “number of disastrous consequences”; the transition signals are “may lead to.” The topic sentence of the next paragraph indicates the specific “disastrous consequences” you will discuss.

If you don’t see a way to write a logical, effective transition between sentences, ideas or paragraphs, this might indicate organizational problems in your essay; you might consider revising your work.

Some material adapted from Cal Poly Pomona College Reading Skills Program  and “ Power Tools for Technical Communication .”

Last revised: 07/2008 | Adapted for web delivery: 05/2021

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45 Best Transition Words and Phrases For Essays

But how to make sure that everything ties together, and that you present your arguments in a logical, smooth manner? It’s simple. You do it by using transition words and phrases, which can turn your scattered thoughts into a well-organized, and neatly looking piece of prose. “Look on every exit as being an entrance somewhere else.” – Tom Stoppard It is common knowledge that the ability to write a great essay is tremendously helpful to those who are pursuing higher education. So, it wouldn’t hurt to add all the weapons you can find to your essay-writing arsenal, like these transition words.

What are transition words?

Here are the main rules for the usage of transitional words:, using transitional words in essays.

Your regular essay will comprise five paragraphs – an introduction, three paragraphs to present your points, and a conclusion. Your job is to make the prose consistent, and that’s why you need words and phrases to create links between the ideas. The words and phrases below are mostly used in persuasive (argumentative) essays where you need to convince the readers of your opinion confidently. But in fact, they’re useful in almost any type of writing (such as expository essays ) simply to keep the structure intact. If you use them well, they can emphasize contrast, highlight a similarity, and solidify your conclusion. Transition, a formal definition: the process of changing from one situation, form, or state to another.

Transition words are used at the beginning of each new paragraph. For Example:

They can also be used when you present a new point in the same paragraph. for example:, there’s a multitude of transition words that will contribute to a sleeker essay.

Many students make the mistake of repeating the same words repeatedly. This causes them to lose impact and meaning. Among grammarians, this phenomenon is called grammar saturation. The important thing to know is that there are several categories to transition words depending on the type of impact you’d like to create in your writing . Often, there are several words suitable for one transition. Just remember that they don’t always mean the same and you might need some practice to recognize the subtle differences between them. To avoid this, look up synonyms and never use the same transition word more than once in a single piece of prose (especially in the same paragraph). If you need a more in-depth course on this topic, you may read A Writer’s Guide To Transitional Words and Expressions.

Here’s a list of the best transition words that’ll come to your rescue:

When you want to indicate similarity or addition:, examples of use:, when you want to indicate dissimilarity, contrast, or contradiction:, when you want to indicate similarity:, when you want to indicate cause, effect, purpose, consequence, or result:, when you want to emphasize something:, when you want to indicate the time or sequence of events:, when you want to indicate spatial order or reference:, how do these words relate to the format of your essay, introductory transitions.

These come in handy when you craft your first supporting paragraph (the one after the introductory one). Here you usually start building on your thesis and start giving arguments in its favor.

Words to use in an introductory paragraph:

Connecting the second paragraph to the third:, connecting the third paragraph to the fourth:, connecting the body to the conclusion:.

Pro tip: Words like ‘for’, ‘and’, ‘nor’, ‘but’, ‘or’, ‘yet’, and ‘since’ shouldn’t be used at the beginning of a sentence if you’re writing a formal essay. “The best part of your story is when it changes.” – Bella Bloom Bonus material – a printable PDF chart with link words (always keep it beside you): A complete list of transition words and conjunctions.

Now it’s your turn to use these transition words

Starting an essay is always challenging, even for advanced writers. Hopefully, by reading this article, I made your task easier by adding a valuable tool to your writer’s toolbox. Just remember to use these phrases originally, and without repetition. The last thing you want to do is to sound mechanical as if you’re writing from a template. Next up, you may want to check a list of amazing short pretty words in English .

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All the Transition Words You'll Ever Need for Academic Writing

In academic writing, transitions are the glue that holds your ideas together. Without them, your writing would be illogical and lack flow, making it difficult for your audience to understand or replicate your research.

In this article, we will discuss the types of transitions based on their purpose. Familiarizing yourself with these most-used and best transition terms for academic writing will help bring clarity to your essays and make the writing process much easier on you.

Types of transitions

There are four types of transitions: Causal, Sequential, Adversative and Additive. Below, we've listed the most commonly used transitions in each of these categories, as well as examples of how they might be used to begin a paragraph or sentence.

When you use causal transitions, you are letting your reader know that there is a cause-and-effect relationship between ideas or paragraphs or consequences.

• Accordingly ("Accordingly, the author states…")
• All else being equal ("All else being equal, these ideas correlate…")
• As a consequence ("As a consequence, all data were aggregated…")
• As a result (of this) ("As a result of this finding, scholars now agree…")
• Because (of the fact that) ("Because of the fact that these numbers show signs of declining,…")
• Because (of this) ("Because of this, scholars determined…")
• Consequently ("Consequently, the research was stalled…")
• Due to (the fact that) ("Due to the fact that all prior studies showed similar results,…")
• For the purpose(s) of ("For the purposes of our argument, we will…")
• For this reason ("For this reason, the researchers…")
• Granted (that) ("Granted that the numbers were significantly higher, the study…")
• Granting (that) ("Granting that the data was collected incorrectly, the researchers felt…")
• If…then ("If this data is significant, then it is obvious that…")
• If so ("If so, the data is not useable…")
• In the event ("In the event that it is not significant, we should consider that…")
• Inasmuch as ("Insomuch as the authors attempt to refute these findings, research suggests that…")
• In the hope that ("In the hope that new data will encourage more in-depth research, the author found that….")
• In that case ("In that case, we've found that…")
• Only if ("Only if data is insubstantial should findings be ignored, thus…")
• Otherwise ("Otherwise, the research would continue…")
• Owing to (the fact) ("Owing to the fact that the gathered data is incorrect, …")
• Provided (that) ("Provided that the same results occur, we can assume that…")
• Since ("Since it would seem futile to continue to study this topic, we posit that…")
• So as to ("So as to clarify past remarks, we initiated further research…")
• So long as ("So long as there is established credibility, this journal seeks….")
• So much (so) that ("The data is manipulated so much so that it can't be used to clarify…")
• Therefore ("Therefore, this result compromises the exploration into…")
• That being the case ("That being the case, we should look into alternatives…")
• Thus ("Thus, it would see that further research…")
• Unless ("Unless this calls to question the original hypothesis, the exploration of this topic would be…")
• With (this fact) in mind ("With this fact in mind, let's consider another alternative…")
• Under those circumstances ("Under those circumstances, fewer participants…")

Sequential transitions show a numerical sequence or the continuation of a thought or action. They are used to establish an order to your main points in an academic essay, and help create a logical outline for your writing.

• (Once) again ("Once again, this is not a reason for lack of rigor…")
• After (this) ("After this, it would seem most prudent to…")
• Afterwards ("Afterwards, it seemed a moot point to determine…")
• Altogether ("Altogether, these data suggest that…")
• Anyway ("Anyway, such loss would prove to be damaging..")
• As (was) mentioned earlier/above ("As was mentioned above, the lack of attention given to…")
• As (was) stated before ("As was stated before, there is little evidence show…")
• As a final point ("As a final point, consider the connection between…")
• At any rate ("At any rate, loss of significance was vital to…")
• By the way ("By the way, one can't assume that…")
• Coincidentally ("Coincidentally, this affected the nature of…")
• Consequently ("Consequently, Smith found that…")
• Eventually ("Eventually, more was needed to sustain…")
• Finally ("Finally, we now know that…"
• First ("First, it seems that even with the additional data…")
• First of all ("First of all, none of the respondents felt that…")
• Given these points ("Given these points, it's easy to see that…")
• Hence ("Hence, we see that the above details…")
• In conclusion ("In conclusion, since the data shows significant growth...")
• In summary ("In summary, there are not enough studies to show the correlation…")
• In the (first/second/third) place ("In the first place, we found that…")
• Incidentally ("Incidentally, no findings showed a positive outlook…")
• Initially ("Initially, we noticed that the authors….")
• Last ("Last, the most significant growth appeared to happen when…")
• Next ("Next, it's important to note that…")
• Overall ("Overall, we found that….")
• Previously ("Previously, it was shown that…")
• Returning to the subject ("Returning to the subject, careful observation of trends…")
• Second ("Second, it was impossible to know the…")
• Secondly ("Secondly, in looking at variable related to…")
• Subsequently ("Subsequently, we found that…")
• Summarizing (this) ("Summarizing this, the authors noted that…")
• Therefore ("Therefore, the connection is unknown between…")
• Third ("Third, when data were collected…")
• Thirdly ("Thirdly, we noticed that…")
• Thus ("Thus, there was no evidence that…)
• To conclude ("To conclude, the findings suggest that…")
• To repeat ("To repeat, no studies found evidence that…")
• To resume ("To resume the conversation, we began discussing…")
• To start with ("To start with, there is no evidence that…")
• To sum up ("To sum up, significant correlation was found…")
• Ultimately ("Ultimately, no studies found evidence of…")

Adversative Transitions

Adversative transitions show contrast, counter arguments or an alternative suggestion.

• Above all ("Above all, we found that…"
• Admittedly ("Admittedly, the findings suggest that…")
• All the same ("All the same, without knowing which direction the study would take…")
• Although ("Although much is to be learned from…")
• At any rate ("At any rate, we concluded that...")
• At least ("At least, with these results, we can…")
• Be that as it may ("Be that as it may, there was no significant correlation between…")
• Besides ("Besides, it is obvious that…")
• But ("But, the causal relationship between…")
• By way of contrast ("By the way of contrast, we note that…")
• Conversely ("Conversely, there was no correlation between…")
• Despite (this) ("Despite this, the findings are clear in that…")
• Either way ("Either way, studies fail to approach the topic from…")
• Even more ("Even more, we can conclude that…")
• Even so ("Even so, there is a lack of evidence showing…")
• Even though ("Even though the participants were unaware of which ….")
• However (However, it becomes clear that…")
• In any case ("In any case, there were enough reponses…")
• In any event ("In any event, we noted that…")
• In contrast ("In contrast, the new data suggests that…")
• In fact ("In fact, there is a loss of…")
• In spite of (this) ("In spite of this, we note that…")
• Indeed ("Indeed, it becomes clear that…")
• Instead (of) ("Instead of publishing our findings early, we chose to")
• More/Most importantly ("More importantly, there have not been any…")
• Nevertheless ("Nevertheless, it becomes clear that…")
• Nonetheless ("Nonetheless, we failed to note how…")
• Notwithstanding (this) ("Notwithstanding this, there was little evidence…")
• On the contrary ("On the contrary, no active users were…")
• On the other hand ("On the other hand, we cannot avoid…")
• Primarily ("Primarily, it becomes significant as…")
• Rather ("Rather, none of this is relevant…")
• Regardless (of) ("Regardless of previous results, the authors…")
• Significantly ("Significantly, there was little correlation between…")
• Still ("Still, nothing was noted in the diary…")
• Whereas ("Whereas little evidence has been given to…")
• While ("While causality is lacking…")
• Yet ("Yet, it becomes clear that…")

Additive Transitions

You'll use an additive transition to relate when new information is being added or highlighted to something that was just mentioned.

• Additionally ("Additionally, it can be noted that…")
• Also ("Also, there was no evidence that….")
• As a matter of fact ("As a matter of fact, the evidence fails to show…")
• As for (this) ("As for this, we can posit that…")
• By the same token ("By the same token, no studies have concluded…")
• Concerning (this) ("Concerning this, there is little evidence to…")
• Considering (this) ("Considering this, we must then return to…")
• Equally ("Equally, there was no correlation…")
• Especially ("Especially, the study reveals that…")
• For example ("For example, a loss of one's….")
• For instance ("For instance, there was little evidence showing…")
• Furthermore ("Furthermore, a lack of knowledge on…")
• In a similar way ("In a similar way, new findings show that…")
• In addition to ("In addition to this new evidence, we note that…")
• In fact ("In fact, none of the prior studies showed…")
• In other words ("In other words, there was a lack of…")
• In particular ("In particular, no relationship was revealed…")
• In the same way ("In the same way, new studies suggest that…")
• Likewise ("Likewise, we noted that…)
• Looking at (this information) ("Looking at this information, it's clear to see how…)
• Moreover ("Moreover, the loss of reputation of…")
• Namely ("Namely, the authors noted that…")
• Not only…but also ("Not only did the study reveal new findings, but also it demonstrated how….")
• Notably ("Notably, no other studies have been done…")
• On the subject of (this) ("On the subject of awareness, participants agreed that….")
• One example (of this is) ("One example of this is how the new data…")
• Particularly ("Particularly, there is little evidence showing…")
• Regarding (this) ("Regarding this, there were concerns that…")
• Similarly ("Similarly, we note that…")
• Specifically ("Specifically, there were responses that…")
• That is ("That is, little attention is given to…")
• The fact that ("The fact that the participants felt misinformed…")
• This means (that) ("This means that conclusive findings are…")
• To illustrate ("To illustrate, one participant wrote that….")
• To put it another way ("To put it another way, there is little reason to…")
• What this means is ("What this means is the authors failed to…")
• With regards to (this) ("With regards to this, we cannot assume that…")

Making the choice

When deciding which transition would best fit in each instance, keep in mind a few of these tips:

• Avoid using the same transition too much, as it could make your writing repetitive.
• Check at the beginning of each paragraph to ensure that a) you've included a transition, if one was needed, and b) it's the correct transition to accurately relate the type of logical connection you're forming between ideas.
• Be sure that if you are using sequential transitions, they match. For example, if you use "first" to highlight your first point, "second" should come next, then "third," etc. You wouldn't want to use "first", followed by "secondly."

Transitions

Transitions between paragraphs.

While within-paragraph transitions serve the purpose of alerting readers of upcoming shifts in perspective or voice , between-paragraph transitions serve the unique purpose of alerting readers of upcoming shifts in argument or idea . Because one of the core rules of effective paragraph-writing is limiting each paragraph to only one controlling idea (see the Basic Paragraph Resource Center lesson), shifts in argument or idea only tend to happen between paragraphs within the academic essay.

There are literally dozens of transition words to choose from when shifting focus from one idea to another. There are transition words that show cause and effect, contrast, similarity, emphasis, and even sequence. To give you a general idea of the options available to you, below are examples of just a few of those categories and word combinations:

With so many available options, you may be wondering how you will ever be able to figure out which word or set of words would work best where.

Guiding Questions

While there are many approaches you could take, let’s take a look at a few basic guiding questions you should be asking yourself as you look over your own essay and create your own between-paragraph transitions:

• What is the purpose of this paragraph? Is it to introduce, inform, persuade, address an opposing viewpoint, revisit or add emphasis to already discussed ideas?
• Does the idea I’m sharing in this paragraph relate to or support any other idea or argument shared within the essay up to this point?
• Does the idea I’m sharing in this paragraph present a different viewpoint or idea?
• Is the idea I’m sharing separate from or dependent upon other ideas being shared within the essay?

Your answer to these four basic questions should help you more easily identify which categories of transition words might work best at the beginning of each of your paragraphs.

A Couple Tips to Get Started

Selecting proper transitions takes time and practice. To get you started on the right foot though, here are a couple tips to point you in the right direction:

• Your body paragraphs would likely benefit most from the Addition and Order transition word categories as they tend to string together related or culminating ideas or arguments
• Your concluding paragraph would likely benefit most from the Emphasis word category as one of its primary objectives is to revisit and re-emphasize major ideas presented in the essay

To see the power of an appropriately-used transition in action, let’s consider the following prompt question example. Imagine you were asked to write an essay based on the following prompt:

• Do you believe that people have a specific “calling” in life? Why or why not?

A possible thesis statement (or answer to that prompt question) might be::

• My spiritual study, secular study, and my own life experience has taught me that life callings tend to emerge not just once, but perhaps even multiple times, at crossway of spiritual gifts and need in the world.

Ponder and Record

• Based on the thesis statement above, how many body paragraphs do you think this essay will need to have?
• What controlling ideas (or arguments) might each body paragraph be engaging?
• Are these arguments in any way related to each other or building on each other?
• How might these body paragraphs benefit from transition words in the Addition or Order categories?

Body Paragraph Transitions

In answering the questions above, you likely realized that three body paragraphs will be required in this essay based on its current thesis statement. One body paragraph will focus on “spiritual” findings, another on “secular,” and then finally one supported by “personal experience.”

You also likely realized that the Addition transition word category cannot be applied to the first body paragraph as no arguments have been made yet that can be added to. This means that the first body paragraph would likely benefit most from a transition word selected from the Order category. An example of this in application might look like the following:

Body Paragraph #1 Topic Sentence

Above all, my spiritual study of the scriptures as well as the words of latter-day prophets have supported my belief that life callings emerge at the intersection of spiritual gifts and need in the world.

• What does the selection of the transitional phrase “above all” suggest about the controlling idea that will be discussed in this paragraph?
• What does it suggest about the ideas that will follow in subsequent paragraphs?

To see more “between-paragraph” transition words in action, let’s look at what the next body paragraph topic sentence might look like with the added benefit of transition words:

Body Paragraph #2 Topic Sentence

In addition to my spiritual study, my secular study of the “life calling” also supports this idea that life callings emerge again and again at the intersection of spiritual gifts and need in the world.

• What is the transitional phrase used in the topic sentence above?
• Which list is the transitional phrase “in addition” drawn from?
• What purpose does it serve in this paragraph? How does it add value?

To really emphasize the value-add of between-paragraph transitions, let’s look at one final body paragraph example:

Body Paragraph #3 Topic Sentence

Finally, my own life experience has taught me that the concept of the “life calling” truly does lie at the intersection of gifts and need in the world.

• Which list is the transitional phrase “finally” drawn from?

Concluding Paragraph

As mentioned above, the category of transition words that would most benefit your concluding paragraph is Emphasis . Since one of the main purposes of the concluding paragraph is to revisit ideas shared within the essay, transition words that express emphasis would be a natural fit and value-add. To see the power of this addition, feel free to examine the example below:

Concluding Paragraph Example

Without a doubt, I have come to realize over the years that a life calling is so much more than simply acting on a single moment in time— it is developing gifts and talents and constantly reassessing what value-add those gifts and talents can bring to the world at that particular moment.

• What transitional phrase is used in the above concluding paragraph topic sentence?
• How does the addition of “without a doubt” add emphasis to the conclusion? How does its addition help fulfill one of the concluding paragraph’s primary purposes?

Within-paragraph and between-paragraph transitions are truly the best ways to alert readers to upcoming changes in perspective and voice as well as argument or idea. As you write and then review your own writing, really try to consider which transition words would best help you create the most powerful and organized experience for your readers.

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A List of Transition Words to Use for Argumentative Essays

Amanda Green was born in a small town in the west of Scotland, where everyone knows everyone. I joined the Toastmasters 15 years ago, and I served in nearly every office in the club since then. I love helping others gain confidence and skills they can apply in every day life.

Writing an argumentative essay requires a lot of effort aside from research. Besides grammar and structure, you definitely need to make sure your essay is coherent by using transitions.

Argumentative essay transition words allow you to wrap up a piece of evidence to support your main point and then move on to another. Keep reading for tips and an exhaustive list of transition words I put together for your argumentative essays.

What Is a Transition Word?

A transition word is critical to producing quality content. Also known as linking words, transition words make basic connections between sentences and paragraphs to show a relationship between ideas.

A strong transition is crucial when writing an essay. It’s not enough that you provide complete information about your main points and supporting details. You also have to make your argument attractive and logical by using transitions in your academic essay.

The absence of transition words will make your paper less readable and understandable. But too many transitions can also ruin your piece. Use them in moderation to avoid confusion about your document.

Function and Importance of Transitions

The goal of transition words is to convey ideas clearly and concisely to your readers. If you’re writing an argumentative paper, you want to make logical connections in your document to prove your central point.

Transitional phrases and words help you produce a logical flow from one sentence or paragraph to another. In other words, they introduce what the following information will be. Some transitions come in single words, while others come in complete phrases and sentences.

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There are many categories of transitions, including those that present counterarguments and others that build on your arguments. Be careful about using the wrong transition. Otherwise, you won’t achieve your goal of clarity and conciseness. Consider these examples.

• “ For instance , an anonymous TikTok user reports having a shorter attention span because of its over-swiping feature.” (In this sentence, for instance is used to provide an example).
• “ Here’s an exception to my previous point. ” (This entire sentence is a transition, showing a logical connection between the previous and following sentences).

Transition can also be a sentence to a paragraph long. I’ll show you an example.

Paragraph A: A point that supports co-sleeping as a parenting method.

Transition: Despite this, there are many reasons that prove co-sleeping leads to sleep-related accidents.

Paragraph B: Points that oppose co-sleeping.

Types of Transition Words

There are several types of transitions you can use for making high-quality essays.

Transition Between Paragraphs

A type of transition required for a well-written essay is one you can find between paragraphs. Once you’ve arranged each paragraph according to your outline, it’s important to start each with an effective transition. This word or phrase is usually present in the topic sentence of the body.

Some examples include however, similarly, and for example. But these transition expressions cannot be a single sentence long. The initial sentence of every paragraph should be clear and substantial instead of simply connecting ideas.

Transition Within Paragraphs

Creating a powerful transition within every paragraph of your academic papers avoids choppy sentences. It provides a sense of connection between complex ideas to help readers anticipate what is coming.

These are usually single words or short phrases like in addition, since, and if.

Transition Between Sections

The last type of transition phrases and sentences are those between sections. You’ll find them all over the entire paper to summarize the information. They can be restatements of arguments or a short closing sentence to ensure the flow of ideas.

What Is an Argumentative Essay?

It’s a type of essay that requires you to research a subject matter and establish a position for or against it.

Aside from researching and evaluating evidence, showing a relationship between sentences and sections is essential when writing a paper. This will allow you to wrap up an idea and then start another. You must cite different sources to support your point of view, then show counterarguments.

The entire essay should include an introduction, a conclusion, and at least three body paragraphs.

How Do You Start an Argumentative Essay?

Every type of paper starts with an introduction, which usually includes a hook, background, and thesis statement.

The common essay introduction piques the reader’s interest through a surprising statistic or an interesting question. Provide readers with a background of your entire content piece, then state your main argument in a clear sentence.

Transition expressions are not yet essential in this stage of essay writing. Focus on setting up your point and discussing how you will argue it throughout the paper.

Common Transitions for Argumentative Essay Writing

Take a look at this list of transitional words and phrases commonly used to make strong arguments.

• Additionally
• In addition
• Not only… but also
• In the same way
• Comparatively
• Furthermore
• Equally important

Counterargument Transition Words

Here’s a transition word list for essays showing different sides of an argument.

• While it is true that
• Nevertheless
• Despite this
• On the other hand
• Be that as it may
• Even though
• Although this may be true

Transition Words and Phrases for Comparing and Contrasting

Here’s a breakdown of transition words and phrases you can use when comparing and contrasting.

• In spite of
• On the contrary
• Different from
• In contrast

Transition Words to Include in Your College Essay

Here are some examples of transition words you can use when applying for college admission or scholarship.

• To put it in another way
• To demonstrate
• As an illustration
• By all means
• In other words

Transition Words for Cause and Effect

Consider this transition word list when showing cause and effect.

• As a result
• For this reason
• Consequently
• Accordingly
• Under those circumstances
• Because the

Transition Words for Essay Paragraphs

• At the present time
• In due time
• To begin with
• All of a sudden
• Immediately
• In a moment

Transitions to Emphasize a Point

• Most of all
• The main problem/issue is
• Without question
• More importantly
• Most important of all

Transition Words for Additional Support or Evidence

Transition words for sequence or order, transition words for space or place.

• In the middle of
• In the distance
• In the background
• Here and there
• On the side

To Cite a Source or Paraphrase

• According to
• This means that
• Put it more simply

Transition Words to Begin a Body Paragraph

• What is more
• Beyond that

Transition Words to Introduce Details

• For example
• As an example
• For instance
• A case in point
• Specifically
• In particular
• More specifically

Transition Words for Conclusion

• As can be seen
• By and large
• On the whole
• To summarize
• In the final analysis
• Generally speaking

More Transition Words

• With this intention
• In order to
• In the hope that
• With this in mind
• For the purpose of
• Provided that

Tips for Using Argumentative Essay Transitions

Follow these tips to improve your use of transitions in your essay.

Know What the Transitions Mean

Non-native speakers may need help knowing the meaning of every transition expression, so research every term before using it.

There are also many categories of transition words. You can use them to summarize points, show contradictions, express sequence, or begin a paragraph.

Start Your Essay with an Outline

Writing an outline will make it easier to map your ideas and move them around. This strategy will help you transition between paragraphs.

Don’t Overuse Transitions

The last mistake you shouldn’t make is overuse. Instead of making connections between sentences, you’ll make your paper more difficult to read. It creates more incoherence and distraction in your writing, contradicting its intended purpose in your paper.

Use Transition Words Properly

Now you know how to use transition words and phrases for your argumentative essay through this guide and list. These expressions will help you produce a coherent relationship between every idea.

Mastering transitions for your essay may not be a piece of cake, but practice makes perfect. Don’t forget to revise and proofread your argumentative before submitting it to your professor.

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Helpful Links

Here are sites with extensive lists of transition words and phrases:

  Transitional Words and Phrases – The Writing Center – UW–Madison (wisc.edu)   

Academic Phrasebank | Signalling transition (manchester.ac.uk)

Transitions – The Writing Center • University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (unc.edu)

Transitions are words and/or phrases used to indicate movement or show change throughout a piece of writing. Transitions generally come at the beginning of a paragraph and can do the following:

• Alert readers of connections to, or further evidence for, the thesis
• Function as the topic sentence of paragraphs
• Guide readers through an argument
• Help writers stay on task

Transitions sentences often indicate or signal:

• Change to new topic
• Connection/flow from previous topic
• Continuity of overall argument/thesis

Transitions show connections between ideas. You must create these connections for the reader to move them along with your argument. Without transitions, you are building a house without nails. Things do not hold together.

Transition Words and Phrases

Transitions can signal change or relationship in these ways:

Time - order of events

Examples: while, immediately, never, after, later, earlier, always, soon, meanwhile, during, until now, next, following, once, then, simultaneously, so far

Contrast - show difference

Examples: yet, nevertheless, after all, but, however, though, otherwise, on the contrary, in contrast, on the other hand, at the same time

Compare - show similarity

Examples: in the same way, in like manner, similarly, likewise

Position - show spatial relationships

Examples: here, there, nearby, beyond, wherever, opposite to, above, below

Cause and effect

Examples: because, since, for that reason, therefore, consequently, accordingly, thus, as a result

Conclusion - wrap up/summarize the argument

Writing strong transitions often takes more than simply plugging in a transition word or phrase here and there. In a piece of academic writing, writers often need to use signposts, or transition sentences that signal the reader of connections to the thesis. To form a signpost, combine transition words, key terms from the thesis, and a mention of the previous topic and new topic.

Transition/signpost sentence structure: 

[Transition word/phrase] + [previous topic] + [brief restatement of or reference to thesis/argument] + [new topic]  = Signpost

• Do not think of this as a hard and fast template, but a general guide to what is included in a good transition.
• Transitions link the topic of the previous paragraph(s) to the topic of the present paragraph(s) and connect both to the overall goal/argument. You'll most often find signposts at the beginning of a paragraph, where they function as topic sentences .

Sample signpost using complimentary transition phrase:

According to [transition phrase] the same overall plan for first defeating Confederate forces in the field and then capturing major cities and rail hubs [overall thesis restated] that Grant followed by marching the Army of the Potomac into Virginia [previous topic] , Sherman likewise [transition word] advanced into Georgia to drive a dagger into the heart of the Confederacy [new topic] .

Contrasting ideas have the same essential format as complimentary but may use different transition words and phrases:

In contrast to [transition phrase] F.D.R., who maintained an ever-vigilant watchfulness over the Manhattan project [previous topic + reference to overall thesis] , Truman took over the presidency without any knowledge of the atomic bomb or its potential power [new topic] .

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50 Transitional Phrases for Conclusions(+ Examples You Can Use)

When writing a conclusion, you want to ensure that your final thoughts are clear and concise. Using transitional phrases can help you achieve this by linking your ideas together and making your writing flow smoothly.

There are various types of transitional phrases that can be used in a conclusion. Some examples include:

Transitional Phrases for Conclusions

When writing an essay or a speech, it is important to use transitional phrases to signal that you are reaching the end of your argument or presentation. These phrases help to summarize your main points and prepare your audience for the conclusion.

These phrases can be used to signal that you are about to wrap up your argument or presentation. They help to guide your audience to your final thoughts and summarize the main points you have made throughout your work.

In addition to these phrases, you can also use other techniques to signal the end of your work. For example, you can use a rhetorical question to provoke thought or a call to action to encourage your audience to take action based on your argument.

50  Transition Phrases for Conclusions(+Examples)

Transitional phrases for adding information.

When writing a conclusion, it is important to add information that supports your thesis statement. Transitional phrases can help you do this by linking your ideas together and making your writing more coherent. Here are some transitional phrases that you can use to add information to your conclusion:

Transitional Phrases for Comparing and Contrasting

Using transitional phrases can help you compare and contrast different ideas in a clear and concise manner. By using these phrases, you can guide the reader through your thought process and make your writing more engaging and informative.

Transitional Phrases for Cause and Effect

When writing an article or essay, it is important to use transitional phrases to link ideas and concepts. One of the most commonly used types of transitional phrases is the cause-and-effect transitional phrase. These phrases help to connect two events or actions and describe how one event or action led to another.

Another commonly used transitional phrase for cause and effect is “as a result.” For example, “The company experienced a loss of profits this quarter. As a result, they are considering cutting back on expenses.” Here, the effect of the loss of profits is the company’s decision to cut back on expenses.

In addition to “cause” and “result,” other transitional phrases that can be used to indicate cause and effect include “consequently,” “hence,” and “thus.” These transitional phrases are useful for indicating the relationship between two events or actions.

Transitional Phrases for Time and Sequence

Using these transitional phrases for time and sequence can help you structure your writing in a clear and organized way. For example, if you are writing a process essay, you can use these phrases to describe each step of the process in a logical order.

Transitional Phrases for Concluding Thoughts

When writing an essay or a speech, it is essential to conclude your thoughts in a clear and concise manner. Transitional phrases can help you achieve this by linking your ideas together and providing a smooth transition to your conclusion. Here are some transitional phrases that you can use for concluding thoughts:

Practical Examples of Transitional Phrases

When it comes to writing conclusions, transitional phrases can help you effectively summarize your main points and leave a lasting impression on your reader. Here are some practical examples of transitional phrases that you can use to make your writing more cohesive and engaging:

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Good transitions can connect paragraphs and turn disconnected writing into a unified whole. Instead of treating paragraphs as separate ideas, transitions can help readers understand how paragraphs work together, reference one another, and build to a larger point. The key to producing good transitions is highlighting connections between corresponding paragraphs. By referencing in one paragraph the relevant material from previous paragraphs, writers can develop important points for their readers.

It is a good idea to continue one paragraph where another leaves off. (Instances where this is especially challenging may suggest that the paragraphs don't belong together at all.) Picking up key phrases from the previous paragraph and highlighting them in the next can create an obvious progression for readers. Many times, it only takes a few words to draw these connections. Instead of writing transitions that could connect any paragraph to any other paragraph, write a transition that could only connect one specific paragraph to another specific paragraph.

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• How to Write a Thesis Statement | 4 Steps & Examples

How to Write a Thesis Statement | 4 Steps & Examples

Published on January 11, 2019 by Shona McCombes . Revised on August 15, 2023 by Eoghan Ryan.

A thesis statement is a sentence that sums up the central point of your paper or essay . It usually comes near the end of your introduction .

Your thesis will look a bit different depending on the type of essay you’re writing. But the thesis statement should always clearly state the main idea you want to get across. Everything else in your essay should relate back to this idea.

You can write your thesis statement by following four simple steps:

• Start with a question
• Write your initial answer
• Develop your answer
• Refine your thesis statement

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Table of contents

What is a thesis statement, placement of the thesis statement, step 1: start with a question, step 2: write your initial answer, step 3: develop your answer, step 4: refine your thesis statement, types of thesis statements, other interesting articles, frequently asked questions about thesis statements.

A thesis statement summarizes the central points of your essay. It is a signpost telling the reader what the essay will argue and why.

The best thesis statements are:

• Concise: A good thesis statement is short and sweet—don’t use more words than necessary. State your point clearly and directly in one or two sentences.
• Contentious: Your thesis shouldn’t be a simple statement of fact that everyone already knows. A good thesis statement is a claim that requires further evidence or analysis to back it up.
• Coherent: Everything mentioned in your thesis statement must be supported and explained in the rest of your paper.

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The thesis statement generally appears at the end of your essay introduction or research paper introduction .

The spread of the internet has had a world-changing effect, not least on the world of education. The use of the internet in academic contexts and among young people more generally is hotly debated. For many who did not grow up with this technology, its effects seem alarming and potentially harmful. This concern, while understandable, is misguided. The negatives of internet use are outweighed by its many benefits for education: the internet facilitates easier access to information, exposure to different perspectives, and a flexible learning environment for both students and teachers.

You should come up with an initial thesis, sometimes called a working thesis , early in the writing process . As soon as you’ve decided on your essay topic , you need to work out what you want to say about it—a clear thesis will give your essay direction and structure.

You might already have a question in your assignment, but if not, try to come up with your own. What would you like to find out or decide about your topic?

For example, you might ask:

After some initial research, you can formulate a tentative answer to this question. At this stage it can be simple, and it should guide the research process and writing process .

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Now you need to consider why this is your answer and how you will convince your reader to agree with you. As you read more about your topic and begin writing, your answer should get more detailed.

In your essay about the internet and education, the thesis states your position and sketches out the key arguments you’ll use to support it.

The negatives of internet use are outweighed by its many benefits for education because it facilitates easier access to information.

In your essay about braille, the thesis statement summarizes the key historical development that you’ll explain.

The invention of braille in the 19th century transformed the lives of blind people, allowing them to participate more actively in public life.

A strong thesis statement should tell the reader:

• Why you hold this position
• What they’ll learn from your essay
• The key points of your argument or narrative

The final thesis statement doesn’t just state your position, but summarizes your overall argument or the entire topic you’re going to explain. To strengthen a weak thesis statement, it can help to consider the broader context of your topic.

These examples are more specific and show that you’ll explore your topic in depth.

Your thesis statement should match the goals of your essay, which vary depending on the type of essay you’re writing:

• In an argumentative essay , your thesis statement should take a strong position. Your aim in the essay is to convince your reader of this thesis based on evidence and logical reasoning.
• In an expository essay , you’ll aim to explain the facts of a topic or process. Your thesis statement doesn’t have to include a strong opinion in this case, but it should clearly state the central point you want to make, and mention the key elements you’ll explain.

If you want to know more about AI tools , college essays , or fallacies make sure to check out some of our other articles with explanations and examples or go directly to our tools!

• Ad hominem fallacy
• Post hoc fallacy
• Appeal to authority fallacy
• False cause fallacy
• Sunk cost fallacy

College essays

• Choosing Essay Topic
• Write a College Essay
• Write a Diversity Essay
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A thesis statement is a sentence that sums up the central point of your paper or essay . Everything else you write should relate to this key idea.

The thesis statement is essential in any academic essay or research paper for two main reasons:

• It gives your writing direction and focus.
• It gives the reader a concise summary of your main point.

Without a clear thesis statement, an essay can end up rambling and unfocused, leaving your reader unsure of exactly what you want to say.

Follow these four steps to come up with a thesis statement :

• Ask a question about your topic .
• Write your initial answer.
• Develop your answer by including reasons.
• Refine your answer, adding more detail and nuance.

The thesis statement should be placed at the end of your essay introduction .

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Essay Writing: Paragraphs and Transitions

• Essay Writing Basics
• Purdue OWL Page on Writing Your Thesis This link opens in a new window
• Paragraphs and Transitions
• How to Tell if a Website is Legitimate This link opens in a new window
• Formatting Your References Page
• Cite a Website
• Common Grammatical and Mechanical Errors
• Additional Resources
• Proofread Before You Submit Your Paper
• Structuring the 5-Paragraph Essay

Paragraph Structure

I. INTRODUCTION

A. Begins with a sentence that captures the reader’s attention

1) You may want to use an interesting example, a surprising statistic, or a challenging question.

B. Gives background information on the topic.

C. Includes the THESIS STATEMENT which:

1) States the main ideas of the essay and includes:

b. Viewpoint (what you plan to say about the topic)

2) Is more general than supporting data

3) May mention the main point of each of the body paragraphs

II. BODY PARAGRAPH #1

A. Begins with a topic sentence that:

1) States the main point of the paragraph

2) Relates to the THESIS STATEMENT

B. After the topic sentence, you must fill the paragraph with organized details, facts, and examples.

C. Paragraph may end with a transition.

III. BODY PARAGRAPH #2

B. After the topic sentence, you must fill the paragraph with organized details, facts, and examples.

IV. BODY PARAGRAPH #3

3) States the main point of the paragraph

4) Relates to the THESIS STATEMENT

V. CONCLUSION

A. Echoes the THESIS STATEMENT but does not repeat it.

B. Poses a question for the future, suggests some action to be taken, or warns of a consequence.

C. Includes a detail or example from the INTRODUCTION to “tie up” the essay.

D. Ends with a strong image – or a humorous or surprising statement.

Transition Words and Phrases

More Transitions and Linking Expressions

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Four Tips on Using Transitions for a Better Essay

Odds are, you’re already familiar with a typical essay structure: introduction, body, and conclusion. These are essential parts of an essay, but did you know that well-crafted transitions can make these sections flow well, and make your arguments even stronger?

When writing an academic essay, it is important to remember that your goal is to provide clear and concise information that supports your argument (thesis). With that in mind, you can easily use transitions throughout your essay to help you guide your reader through the logic of your argument.

Often, students run into trouble when they write transitions that merely introduce a new topic, rather than with an intention to lead a reader through their argument. For example, say you are writing about why cheddar cheese is the best to use in a grilled cheese sandwich and you want to transition from a paragraph discussing the flavor of cheddar cheese to a new paragraph discussing its gooey texture when it melts.

A poor transition would read:

Cheddar cheese is also gooey when it melts.

A good transition would read:

While cheddar cheese’s sharp flavor makes for delicious grilled-cheese sandwiches, it is also the best cheese choice because of its gooey texture.

While both sentences clearly state that cheddar cheese has a gooey texture, the first sentence simply announces this statement without showing how it connected to the previous paragraph, and without showing how it relates to her overall argument.

While it is important to make sure you write strong transitions, that doesn’t mean that writing them should be a source of stress in your writing process. In fact, by spending the time to write strong transitions, you will find it easier to write strong body paragraphs in your essay.

Here are Four Tips for writing better transitions in your essay, and overall better essays.

Tip #1: Understand what transitions are

Transitions are not merely words meant to signal a change in a thesis point or body paragraph— they are words and phrases meant to articulate the logical relationship between the information that came before the transition, and the information that will come after it. Whether you are writing the first sentence of a new paragraph, a new section, or tying an outside quote to your own writing, when you choose a transition word, try to think of what connects your ideas together and how you want to portray that relationship to your reader.

You can think of the logical relationships between points, and their corresponding transition phrases, as falling into these categories

Example : for example, for instance

Emphasis : in fact, of course, indeed

Sequence/Order : first, second, third, … next, then, finally

Time :   now, then, after, afterward, immediately, before, currently, during, earlier, later, meanwhile, recently, subsequently,

Similarity : also, similarly, likewise

Contrast : still, nevertheless, while, despite, however, but, in spite of, nonetheless, in contrast, on the contrary, yet

Additional Support or Evidence : furthermore, moreover, additionally, again, also, and, as well,

Cause and Effect : so, therefore, accordingly, thus, consequently, therefore

Tip #2 Think beyond just the transitional phrase

While it is important to know which words serve as transitions in a sentence, it is equally important to avoid just relying on the transition word itself to do the work for you. Because, chances are, just using a transitional word is not enough to properly link your ideas together with logical coherence.

In order to avoid this habit, try writing the new information you want to convey first without using a transition word. This could be a thesis statement for your new paragraph, or merely an idea that you want to convey. Once you have that on the page, play around with transitional words to link this sentence to what you discussed before it.

Let’s return to the student writing about grilled cheese sandwiches. Say she wants to transition from discussing cheddar cheese’s gooey texture, to how cheddar cheese is available at most grocery stores.

To link these two ideas, she first writes the idea she wants to guide her reader towards…

Cheddar cheese is one of the most accessible cheeses—most grocery stores stock at least one kind of cheddar cheese.

Then, she adds a link from that sentence to her previous point. Because she wants to indicate additional support, she chooses to say

Furthermore, cheddar cheese is the best cheese for making grilled cheese as it is one of the most accessible—most grocery stores stock at least one kind of cheddar cheese.

By using this process, you will ensure that you are focusing on the ideas you want to express, and avoid relying on the transition word itself to do the heavy-lifting in your essay.

Tip #3: Go Back Through Your Introduction and Thesis

Sometimes, it might not be obvious, even to you the writer, what logical connection links two paragraphs within an essay. And that’s okay! Your ideas tend to evolve as you develop them on the page, and sometimes you will find that once you have fully fleshed out one idea, you don’t know how to move towards a new idea. Just take a break from the actual writing and go back to read your thesis.

Ask yourself what do you want to argue in the whole of the essay. This will help you to focus on what you want to argue in this particular paragraph or section of your essay in order to support your overall argument. If you can clearly articulate your new idea, and how it supports your overall thesis, you will find it easier to say how it connects to your previous paragraph or idea.

Tip #4: Write an outline and move the pieces around

If you still find yourself staring at the page, struggling to connect the previous idea to the new idea you want to guide your readers through, take a step back. When in doubt, make an outline. Whether you like to use an outline template on your word processor, or write one out on paper, make an outline that includes your thesis statement and the main points you want to use to support it. Once you have the outline mapped out, move the pieces around. Sometimes, the order in which you started out writing your paper doesn’t flow logically once you have developed your ideas further. By moving things around, you might find you have an easier time transitioning between different paragraphs.

Although transitioning seamlessly from one paragraph to another in an essay may feel challenging, you can write clear and concise transitions by focusing on the thesis of your essay, and the logical connections that tie your ideas together. Once you have gone through these tips, writing transitions will come naturally to you.

Transitions are not the only thing you should pay attention to! BibMe Plus’s grammar check can help you check your paper for grammar and unintentional plagiarism before you turn it. Also, BibMe’s classic citation tools can help generate APA citations (or citations in other styles like MLA format ) for your bibliography. Give a go today!

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How to Use Transitions to Start a Paragraph [Tips with Examples]

Transition words are essentially bridges that help you move smoothly from one topic to another, ensuring your writing maintains its flow and relevance. These words and phrases are particularly useful when starting a new paragraph, as they signal a shift to a new aspect of the main topic under discussion. Understanding and using transition words effectively is a subtle yet powerful skill that can significantly enhance the coherence of your writing. As a writer, I'll demonstrate the best ways to incorporate transition words so your passages flow seamlessly and make sense to your readers.

What are Transitions?

Transition words are words or phrases that connect ideas, sentences, and paragraphs to ensure a smooth flow in writing. They serve as bridges, guiding readers from one point to the next without losing coherence. These transitions can indicate relationships such as addition (e.g., "furthermore," "moreover"), contrast (e.g., "however," "on the other hand"), or cause and effect (e.g., "therefore," "consequently").

The importance of transition words in essays cannot be overstated. They enhance the overall structure, making the text more readable and logical. By clearly signaling shifts in ideas or arguments, transition words help readers follow the writer's train of thought and understand the connections between different points. This not only improves comprehension but also keeps the readers engaged, making the writing more effective and persuasive.

Transition Words in Academic Writing

Transition words are valuable in academic writing as they help with the flow of presenting your idea or argument. However, students are often confused, either by not knowing which one to use where or by how many to use. So, while transitions are important, misuse or overuse can both be a nuisance. Let's explore five important categories of transition words for essays and how you can use them effectively in your essays, reports, and research papers.

1. Addition and Emphasis

When you're building your argument or explaining complex ideas, addition and emphasis transition words are invaluable. Use these to introduce new information, provide examples, or stress key points. They'll help you expand on your thoughts and strengthen your arguments, showing your professor that you've thoroughly explored the topic.

2. Cause and Effect

In academic writing, you'll often need to explain how one thing leads to another. Cause and effect transition words help you clearly demonstrate these relationships. Whether you're discussing scientific processes or historical events, these transitions will make your reasoning more logical and easier to follow.

3. Contrast and Comparison

Sometimes you'll need to show how things are similar or different in your assignments. That's when contrast and comparison transition words come in handy. They help you present different ideas side by side, making it easier for your readers to see connections and differences. These transitions are especially useful when you're analyzing literature, comparing historical periods, or discussing pros and cons in a debate.

4. Sequence and Order

Organizing your ideas logically is key to successful academic writing. Sequence and order transition words help you present information in a clear, step-by-step manner. Whether you're describing a process, narrating events, or structuring an argument, these transitions will make your writing more coherent and easier to understand.

5. Summary and Conclusion

As you wrap up your essays or reports, summary and conclusion transition words signal to your reader that you're bringing your thoughts together. Use these to restate your main points, offer final insights, or suggest areas for further research. They'll help you end your writing on a strong note, leaving your professor with a clear understanding of your argument or analysis.

How to Choose the Right Transition Words

Choosing the right transition words can significantly improve the flow and clarity of your writing. Here's a step-by-step guide on how to transition between paragraphs and sentences to help you select the most appropriate transition words:

1.Identify the relationship between ideas

First, analyze how your sentences or paragraphs connect. Are you:

Adding information?

Showing contrast?

Explaining cause and effect?

Providing an example?

Emphasizing a point?

Understanding this relationship will guide you towards the right category of transition words. For instance, if you're adding information, you might use words like "furthermore" or "in addition." If you're showing contrast, "however" or "on the other hand" could be appropriate. For cause and effect, consider "therefore" or "as a result".

2.Consider the purpose of your transition

Think about what you're trying to achieve with your transition. Are you:

Moving to a new topic?

Elaborating on a previous point?

Concluding your thoughts?

This will help you narrow down your choices within the category you've identified. For example, if you're moving to a new topic, you might use "shifting gears" or "turning to." If you're elaborating, "to illustrate" or "specifically" could work well. For conclusions, consider "in summary" or "ultimately."

3.Look at the context

Consider the tone and style of your writing. Some transitions are more formal, while others are more casual. Choose one that fits the overall voice of your essay.

4.Avoid overuse

Don't feel pressured to use a transition word for every sentence. Use them where they truly add value and improve the flow of your writing.

5.Experiment with different options

If you're unsure, try out a few different transition words to see which one sounds best. Reading your work aloud can help you decide.

For example, let's say you're transitioning:

Between two paragraphs:

Transitioning between related ideas

Transitioning from a general idea to a specific example

These examples demonstrate how transition words can improve the flow and coherence of your writing. The "bad" examples aren't necessarily incorrect, but the "good" examples show how transitions can make the connections between ideas clearer and more explicit. Each transition word subtly changes the relationship between the ideas, so choose the one that best represents your intended meaning.

Once we understand the purpose of transition words, using them in essays becomes a lot easier. But then a question that often arises is: how many transition words are appropriate in an essay? The answer is simple: look at the points where you're transitioning from one idea to another. These are your opportunities to use transition words effectively.

This can be a little challenging, which is why I recommend using WPS Office . WPS Office offers an AI spell check feature, which allows students to ensure that not only are there no spelling or grammatical errors in their content, but it also provides checks for clarity, engagement, and delivery.

Let's look at a paragraph I wrote in WPS Office, where I thought I had used a few transition words appropriately. However, when I had it checked by WPS AI spell check, it turned out there were a couple of unnecessary transition words in the article.

This shows how even when we think we're using transition words correctly, there's always room for improvement. Tools like WPS Office can be invaluable in helping us refine our writing and use transition words more effectively.

Using WPS AI to Perfect Your Essay

WPS AI is an AI tool incorporated within the WPS Office suite, offering a multitude of features that leverage advanced artificial intelligence to support your essay writing needs. From helping you refine and build up your ideas to making them more definite, WPS AI assists at every stage of your writing process. If you have already written your essay, it will ultimately help you refine it further.

Here’s how WPS AI can assist you in crafting an outstanding essay:

1.Check the Grammar and Syntax

WPS AI meticulously checks your essay for grammatical errors and syntax issues. It ensures that your writing is free from common mistakes, such as incorrect verb tenses, misplaced commas, and subject-verb disagreements. By providing suggestions for corrections, WPS AI helps you maintain a high level of professionalism and clarity in your writing.

2.Rewrite Your Statement for Clarity

WPS AI can improve the clarity and coherence of your essay by rewriting complex or awkwardly phrased sentences. It identifies areas where your writing may be ambiguous or convoluted and offers alternative phrasing that enhances readability. This feature ensures that your ideas are communicated effectively and your arguments are presented logically.

To access this function, simply look for the WPS AI list of options and click on "Improve Writing". This will generate a more refined version of your essay, making your writing more polished and professional.

3.Automatically Expand Content

When you need to elaborate on a point or expand a section of your essay, WPS AI can automatically generate additional content. This feature helps you continue writing seamlessly, providing suggestions and content that align with your essay's theme and tone. It’s particularly useful for developing supporting arguments, providing more examples, or elaborating on complex ideas.

To use this function, simply click on the "Continue Writing" option from the WPS AI list of options. This will generate additional content that extends your current paragraph or section.

1. Can using too many transition words be a problem?

Overusing transition words can diminish the quality of your writing. These words are meant to link sentences and ideas, but using them too much can make your writing repetitive and dull. Striking a balance in their application ensures your writing remains concise and effectively communicates your ideas without unnecessary repetition.

2. Can transition words be used in formal writing?

Transition words and phrases are essential in formal writing as they promote coherence, navigate readers through arguments, and improve the overall flow of your text, guaranteeing clarity and logical progression.

Transitions 101: Your Guide to Smoother, Clearer Writing

Once you get the hang of transition words, you can bet you can write an essay in its full flow. But even if you're short on time, you can use WPS AI to help with where and how you want to add transition words.

With WPS Office, you get these advanced features and more, all designed to support your academic writing needs. Its AI-powered tools help you write, edit, and refine your essays, ensuring they are polished and professional. Plus, WPS Office is free, making it an accessible and invaluable resource for students and academics. Download WPS Office today and take your essay writing to the next level!

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More From Forbes

One giant leap: how to help technicians transition into leadership.

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Jeremy Straub, Founder & CEO of Coastal Wealth , transforms the financial industry through integrity, innovation, and personalized service.

Top performers don’t necessarily make good leaders, and technical expertise alone does not prepare people for promotion . This is the hard lesson I’ve drawn from seeing technicians with phenomenal results—people such as engineers, attorneys and financial advisors—struggling to transfer those skill sets to teams, peers or external businesses because they could not teach their expertise.

Without successfully transferring their expertise, I’ve observed promoted technicians grow frustrated and eventually quit leadership. But those higher up the chain cannot afford to let people fail after the technician made the leap from individual contributor to leader.

One of the most difficult responsibilities of a leader of leaders is teaching an individual contributor exactly how to become a leader themselves. Mentorship is so important because each jump in the transition from top performer to manager—and then becoming a leader of other leaders—can be successively harder to make.

For instance, a top financial advisor will need to do more than demonstrate how to run a client meeting or build their portfolio if moving into management. This new role will require another skill set . So, here are four steps for managers to help develop their top performers into leaders:

Apple iPhone 16 And iPhone 16 Pro Key Upgrades Revealed In Latest Dispatch

The blake lively backlash on tiktok, explained, today’s nyt mini crossword clues and answers for thursday, august 15, 1. determine their readiness to teach.

I tell top performers stepping into management that their new role is to teach someone else how to perform their old role well. But this is harder than most people realize. Watching someone fumble through a process can be uncomfortable, and resisting the urge to take over is difficult. Some people are just not self-aware enough to pass on their skills and processes.

Here’s how to prepare a top performer for leadership:

• Understand what motivates your top performers, and determine if they want leadership as part of their career path through an individual development plan.

• Give stretch assignments to top performers to assess if they can transfer their skills to others.

• Quality assurance: Provide coaching to your top performer on their stretch assignment.

• Did they like it or not? Maybe it’s not for them. Ask your top performer what they liked and disliked about their mentorship, coaching or assignment. Have them assess themselves on their ability to transfer skill sets and use this feedback to determine readiness for leadership.

The consequence of promoting the wrong people into new leaders is burnout and frustration throughout the whole team. This leads to the “ Peter Principle .” And once they hit incompetence, you start seeing terminations and a lack of engagement from all stakeholders.

2. Document Roles And Processes

Managers need to be able to explain their processes to train top performers to do the same. However, this doesn’t always come naturally. Excelling in a role can become so instinctive that people overlook the steps that got them there. For example, if I found one of my financial advisors struggling to teach their work practices, I would prompt them with questions (such as below) to help them wrap up their process for a client review.

• What did you do before the meeting to prep? What reports, articles or notes did you scan? Can you make a checklist of this process?

• What parts of the client’s financial life did you review and why?

• What changes did you make to their situation, and how did you communicate it to the client?

Typically, top performers are not self-aware enough at the outset to put the repeatable steps they take into processes or systems. So, encourage technicians to break down and document essential tasks of that particular job duty. That will prepare them for the next step in their development. A good reference book is The Checkmark Manifesto .

3. Develop Self-Awareness

When I ask our financial advisors to document each step of their process, I also need them to show me they understand how they work through challenges. Self-awareness is critical because it allows technicians to realize there are multiple skill sets (not just results) required for success. Fortunately, self-awareness can be developed . One technique is to get them to slow down their thinking by asking questions such as:

• When you were frustrated, how did you think through it?

• What motivated you when you were not feeling motivated?

• What is your thought process when faced with difficulties?

When people can evaluate their own strengths and weaknesses, they’re more likely to know what motivates and demotivates them, which creates a valuable lesson in self-awareness for technicians moving up the ladder.

4. Teach Them How To Delegate

As a manager, the need to delegate tasks comes with added responsibility—such as implementing a three-part “DOCing” (demonstrate, observe, confirm) process, which they will then need to use to teach to others and delegate. It involves:

1. Demonstrating a skill or programming, then;

2. Observing others do it and giving feedback before;

3. Confirming their ability and effectiveness, and then moving away to let people get on with executing.

It’s not enough to demonstrate a process once and then leave. For example, when teaching an advisor how to communicate complex financial concepts to clients, a manager might demonstrate one or two times and then walk away—instead of observing the advisors do it on their own and providing them with feedback. Once you ensure people have the resources and knowledge to delegate, they are ready for greater autonomy. But not until you confirm by observation that they can do it on their own.

The Virtuous Cycle Of Leadership

Just because someone excels in their role doesn’t mean they’re ready for promotion. Technicians must develop an entirely different skill set for leadership, including the soft skills of relationship building and effective communication.

These new leaders’ responsibilities shift from executing tasks themselves to teaching others how, and technicians cannot advance to that next level alone. Managers must ensure they have the capacity to develop people before any promotion. While results still matter, it’s how new leaders achieve them that ensures sustainability as the most prepared candidates graduate through the ranks of the company.

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Inside the First Year as a CEO

• Rebecca Davies

Lessons from 35 CEOs on planning, executing, and navigating the transition.

CEO performance reverberates well beyond the corner office, affecting everyone from employees to shareholders, governments to business partners. Getting a good start is critically important to medium- and long-term success, for both the CEO and the organization. But how can newly appointed CEOs succeed when the role is so different from any they’ve held before? Russell Reynolds Associates conducted a study to better understand this pivotal time in a CEO’s journey, looking closely at what new CEOs focus on, what surprises them during their transitions, and what regrets they have. CEOs who have gotten off to a good start offer plenty of lessons for successfully planning, executing, and navigating the transition.

Becoming a CEO is a transition unlike any other. After the pressure and excitement of the appointment process, the real work begins. Expectations are never higher, the learning curve is never steeper, and it doesn’t take long for people to form opinions of a CEO’s performance.

• TW Ty Wiggins leads the CEO & Executive Transitions Practice globally for Russell Reynolds Associates. He helps world-leading CEOs successfully transition into their roles. His book, The New CEO , is based on original research and candid conversations with world-leading CEOs.
• RD Rebecca Davies is a research consultant at Russell Reynolds Associates who specializes in working with global organizations on CEO and non-executive appointments. She has a bachelor’s degree in history from the University of Cambridge and a master’s degree from the University of Exeter, specializing in economic history.

Partner Center

Infineon: Still Positive On The Medium-Term Growth Outlook

• I continue to recommend a buy rating for IFNNY due to expected growth.
• IFNNY showed signs of recovery in 3Q24, with sequential growth and positive guidance for 4Q24.
• The upside case remains attractive even after adjusting growth estimates downward.

Monty Rakusen

Investment action

I recommended a buy rating for Infineon Technologies AG ( OTCQX:IFNNY ) when I wrote about it last December, as I believed the underlying demand was robust and that the valuation should be well-supported by these demand tailwinds. Based on my current outlook and analysis, I continue to recommend a buy rating. My key update to my thesis is that I believe the tough part of this down cycle is over, and IFNNY should see growth over the coming quarters, backed by strong underlying secular trends. At the current share price, even with my revised model assumptions, the upside is still quite attractive.

IFNNY reported 3Q24 earnings last week , which saw total revenue of EUR3.7 billion, gross profit of ~EUR1.5 billion, EBIT of EUR519 million, EBITDA of EUR989 million, and recurring EPS of EUR0.37. On a growth basis, revenue fell by ~9.5% in 3Q24, a slight improvement from the ~12% decline seen in 2Q24. Gross margin also improved from 38.6% in 2Q24 to 40.2% in 3Q24, although it is still down ~420 bps vs. 3Q24. The same trend was seen in EBIT, where the EBIT margin expanded 30 bps sequentially to 14% but is still down from 24.4% in 3Q24.

Certainly, results have not been great since I last wrote about IFNNY. Year-to-date [YTD] revenue is down ~9% vs. my expectation for 7% growth in FY24. YTD EBITDA margin also did poorer than I modeled (28.2% vs. my model of 35.1%). As such, I get why the share price has seen heavy pressure since the start of the year. However, I am not ready to throw in the towel as it appears that IFNNY has moved past the bottom of this cycle as 3Q24 marked the first quarter of positive sequential growth since the start of FY24, and management guided for sequential growth in all segments in 4Q24. Importantly, it was noted that the worst of the inventory correction is now in the rear mirror (per management comments). I am cognizant of the fact that 1 quarter of sequential growth (3Q24) and 1 quarter of positive guidance (4Q24) are not sufficient to prove that a turnaround trend is happening. However, I am confident that over the next few quarters, IFNNY will see a growth turnaround for three reasons:

• The overall semiconductor market is expected to see growth in 2024 and 2025, which IFNNY will benefit from given its leading market position.
• OEMs are shifting from mature nodes (>28 nm) to more powerful nodes (<28 nm), an area where IFNNY is seeing very positive win rates (implying market share gains). This is a good quote from the 3Q24 earnings call to back this view: "I think we will see for the next years continuous market share gains because we are just now in the transition from the 65 to the 40-nanometer generation, which is now taking over in terms of volume and our design wind pipeline, confirmed design wins or rewarded design wins is even stronger in the 40-nanometer generation compared to 65. So, I think we are set up for more market share gains going on. And I also see a good design win trajectory already at this point in time playing out in the 28-nanometer node. So we are pretty confident on that business."
• I believe everyone can agree that demand for AI-related solutions/applications is going to continue growing from here, and this is a very positive trend for IFNNY. This increases demand for advanced power solutions, where IFNNY is already seeing strong traction so far. In the call, management noted: "we are accelerating our AI power business with significant ramp-ups for several customers, some of which already deploy our innovative vertical power delivery solutions"

Given that automotive is IFNNY's largest segment, I can understand why some investors may be worried about the weak EV demand environment in the US. This is a fair concern, but remember that China continues to see strong EV demand, and IFNNY has more revenue exposure to China than the US. Importantly, IFNNY is the leading player in China, which provides investors with exposure to the fastest-growing EV market in the world.

Looking at the global adoption of electric vehicles, regional divergence remains pronounced. China sees healthy consumer demand, which helps us, particularly given our number one automotive market position there. 2Q24 call

Hence, if you were to ask me, will IFNNY see growth recover in the next quarter? I think it's going to be hard to answer. But will IFNNY see overall growth over the next few quarters? I believe the answer is yes. Assuming this assumption is right, I expect IFNNY to see very strong EBITDA growth as the topline recovers and the cost structure gets lowered. I have already discussed my views on revenue above, so I will focus on cost structure here. There are two aspects to take note of here. Firstly, IFNNY will see EUR800 million of lowered costs at the gross margin line as these underutilization charges go away in FY25 (when utilization recovers). Secondly, IFNNY will start to benefit from its current cost-cutting program in FY26. For those that are unaware, IFNNY launched its "Step Up" program in 2Q24 to target a leaner cost structure, and so far, things have progressed well with the business already winding down two backend facilities in Asia, writing down equipment in a facility in Regensburg, and now expecting to reduce headcount over the next few quarters.

Author's work

After the share price decline so far, I think the upside case remains attractive even after adjusting my growth estimates downward (reflecting the poor YTD performance and any lingering weakness for the rest of FY24). FY24 performance is likely to come as per guidance (-8%) given the visibility that management has and the YTD performance so far. In FY25, the business should see a strong growth recovery. As per historical performance, after a year of negative y/y growth, the following year's growth tends to be >10%. Assuming 10% for FY25, I got to a revenue figure of $16.5 billion. As for FY26, I assumed 7% growth (pre-covid growth levels). I have also tapered down my EBITDA margin expectation as revenue size is smaller (but should still improve from FY24 given the larger revenue base vs. FY24 and cost savings).

IFNNY now needs to show the market that the trough is over and growth will turn positive over the coming quarters. This is basically a "show me" story now, which means if IFNNY fails to meet expectations or misses its own guidance again (it missed in 1Q24 and 3Q24), the stock will likely get punished again. In other words, pinpointing the exact timing of growth recovery is a risk that investors have to bear when going long the stock today.

Final thoughts

My recommendation is a buy for IFNNY. YTD, the business performance has been poor, with revenue declines and margin compression, but I believe IFNNY will see growth over the next few quarters. Firstly, the worst of the inventory correction appears to be behind us, and the company is demonstrating early signs of recovery. Furthermore, IFNNY has strong market positions in key growth areas that bode well for growth.

Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

This article was written by

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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The Ezra Klein Show

Nate Silver on Kamala Harris’s Chances and the Mistakes of the ‘Indigo Blob’

By Ezra Klein

Nate Silver on How Kamala Harris Changed the Odds

Nate Silver came to fame in American politics for election forecasting. But before Silver was in politics, he was a poker player. And after getting into politics, he went back to being a poker player. He’s been running through poker championships and out there on tables — partly because he’s been writing a book about risk.

The book is called “ On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything .” And it applies the frameworks of the gambler to politics, to A.I., to venture capital.

The way Silver thinks about politics I find very useful. So I invited him on my podcast to talk about how that thinking has guided him over the past year and how he’s thinking about the election going forward.

This is an edited transcript of part of our conversation. For the full conversation, watch the video below, or listen to “ The Ezra Klein Show .”

The election forecaster discusses 2024 and what politicians can learn from gamblers.

“Nate Silver came to fame in American politics for election forecasting. He built models that were pretty damn successful at predicting American politics.” “Nate Silver is the founder of fivethirtyeight.com, a polling website that correctly predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states in the last presidential election.” “Election Oracle, ESPN’s Nate Silver, he predicted every state in the last presidential election.” “And once again, Nate Silver completely nailed it.” “The guy’s amazing.” “But before Silver was in politics, he was a poker player. And after getting into politics, he went back to being a poker player. He’s been running through poker championships and out there on tables —” “Savage, savage bluff by Silver. Oh, my God.” “— partially because he’s been writing a book about risks. The book is called ‘On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything.’ And it applies the frameworks of, I would say, the gambler, maybe say the poker player, to politics, to AI, to venture capital. Nate, the way he thinks about politics I find very useful. I find that he thinks more clearly about risk and probabilities than a lot of people do and maybe more people should follow. So I wanted to have him on to talk about how that thinking has guided him over the past year and how he’s thinking about it in the election going forward. As always, my email, [email protected].” [THEME MUSIC] “Nate Silver, welcome to the show.” “Thank you, Ezra. Happy to be here.” “Last I looked, your model has Harris winning the election at around 52 percent. It might be mildly different today. But this has been an unusual election. So how much stock do you put in your model right now?” “I think the model is balancing the different factors pretty well. I mean, there are some things you could argue are favorable to Harris, one of which is that for the past few weeks we’ve been in what the model thinks is supposed to be the convention bounce period for republicans, where typically you poll pretty well after your convention. There’s the afterglow of the new nomination and things like that — the afterglow of the VP pick, often, too. And Kamala Harris kind of stomped on Donald Trump’s news cycle. So maybe it’s an overly favorable assumption for Harris. There’s also in polls what’s known as nonpartisan response bias. So when voters get more enthusiastic, you’d rather have that than not as a candidate. But it also means that they sometimes are more likely to respond to polls. At the same time, her momentum has been pretty good, which usually I dismiss. We don’t really kind of know what the baseline is here, right? You know, Hillary Clinton, who was, I think, kind of a terrible candidate, won the popular vote by two points. Is she a little bit better than Hillary Clinton? Probably, right? So can she win by three or four? Well, if you win by three or four, then you win the electoral college in most instances.” “I don’t think many people expected — if you did, I’d like to know it — the turnaround in her numbers we have seen since she’s become the presumptive nominee. She’s gone to net favorables, which I would not have bet a ton of money on at this speed at least. People were looking at a lot of data on Harris and assuming that data was solid. That data was not solid.” “When a candidate’s a hypothetical candidate, you have to treat that polling very carefully. People are — I think it’s a weird thing to ask, you know, what if Gavin Newsom ran against Trump. It’s not the same thing as when you actually have the candidate in front of you, and have the advertisements, and have the news articles, and everything else to actually evaluate. I mean, I think this is, like, on the higher side for a jump in favorables, but, you know, she was amazingly well-organized at getting the entire establishment behind her within literally minutes [LAUGHS]: of Biden announcing that he was going to step down. And so that suggested that maybe she did have more support in the party than she let on. And also, you know, I don’t — I think the Biden people may have been in somewhat bad faith. Maybe not consciously, but I’m not sure they weren’t trying to undermine her. Because the obvious thing to do would be to have this qualified, if not always that politically adept, you know, much, much younger vice president take over for you when you’re about to be 82. But they gave her the border. They gave her voting rights, which is kind of the one major domestic policy area where they got very little done. So I don’t think they gave her a very good hand to play. But meanwhile, she’s getting a lot of reps, and giving speeches, and building connections, and played the game really well. I have a lot of respect for that.” “Well, the key thing, I think, is that Biden had a huge amount of influence over how the party viewed her in both directions. There was a long period, I would say, when the quiet signals out of Biden world were this isn’t going well.” “Yeah.” “And when there was pressure to push Biden off the ticket, those signals got louder — Harris cannot do this. If you get rid of him, you’re going to get her. You’re going to lose. But then the thing you saw happen is a moment Biden actually stepped aside and fully endorsed her. That was a signal so powerful that it functionally won the potential primary for Harris instantly. Nobody was going to go against Joe Biden in that moment. And so, in both directions, Biden had, and the team around him, a lot of influence. When implicitly Biden world told the Democratic Party Harris can’t do it, the Democratic Party believed them. And then when explicitly Biden himself told the Democratic Party and the world Harris could do it, the Democratic Party believed him. And by the way, from what I could tell, it seems he was right. And I don’t blame Biden, I think, for things that happened earlier in the administration. That was a lot of staff talk. And to be fair, it was based on some things. There were problems in her office. There were reasons to be skeptical. But he and they had tremendous power. In a way, this was not, to me, like a mini primary. This was a parliamentary process, right? The party came together and chose a leader through endorsements from elected officials. That’s functionally what happened.” “Yeah, it felt very British. It felt like —” “It felt very British.” “— the Liz Truss kind of thing or something, right, where, yeah. There’s a loss of confidence. Those are fascinating dynamics to study. But yeah, it’s interesting to have the inside view versus the outside view a little bit. And, you know, again, we talk about this in the book a little bit, but I come at a position where I’m more skeptical about the competence of people who work in politics. Right? Even if I like the candidates they endorse — I mean, I plan to plan to vote for Kamala Harris. I would not have voted for Joe Biden, by the way. I think it was deeply irresponsible to nominate him, and I would have voted libertarian or something. But I have a more skeptical view, and I think even the rationales they state out loud are sometimes maybe the rationales they believe or not. But, you know, I think human behavior is pretty strategic when you understand people’s incentives, and kind of information set, and things like that. And I think it was in Biden’s narrow self-interest to make Harris look weaker. And I think that plays a role at all sorts of subconscious margins in terms of how she was treated.” “Well, let’s talk about that skepticism. You and I have known each other a long time. We’re old-school bloggers. And my read of you is that somewhat over the 2016 election, then specifically over the pandemic —” “Yeah.” “— and your experience, I think, with online liberalism in the pandemic, you became much more disillusioned with the people who once felt to you like your group, your coalition, your tribe. There’s been a kind of an alienation for you. Is that a fair read?” “Yeah, I’d say it’s three things, right. Number one, the 2016 aftermath, I thought a lot of the kind of liberal and centrist news media, kind of were in denial about their own role in the ‘But her emails’ stuff and then picked scapegoats for Trump’s victory that were not the real reasons that he won. You know, Russian bot farms have approximately nothing to do with why Donald Trump won the 2016 election. And the Russia stuff, in general, I think was treated with an order of magnitude more importance than it probably objectively had. And blaming Facebook and the tech industry for that, I thought that was irresponsible. And also kind of the obsession over the polls in 2016, where I think there was some revisionist history where the polls actually showed a pretty close race. I mean, we had Trump with a 30 percent chance. And it was kind of the conventional wisdom that assumed that he was dead in the water. So the ability to conveniently lie a little bit or manipulate facts and spin facts, I mean, that was part one. Part two was the pandemic. Absolutely. And, you know, ‘orange man bad,’ I think, was often the reason that people believed a lot of what they believed. Because in some ways, the move to shut down society in some ways kind of went against the values of traditional liberalism, right? There’s a transfer of welfare from younger people [LAUGHS]: and people who are not able to work from home to wealthy suburbanites and older people who you’re protecting their health, but you’re undermining the education of millions and millions and millions of schoolkids around the country, and essential workers are still putting themselves at risk that you deem unacceptable for people who are able to work with laptops to take. So I thought it was very self-serving, and I thought kind of expertise was co-opted and corrupted by political partisans. And then third was the Biden stuff.” “Well, it seemed to me it happened for you before the Biden stuff.” “Yeah. I mean —” “And you were crosswise with a lot of liberals on Twitter. I mean, I came back to Twitter for three weeks during the height of Bidenmania to try to be sort of in touch with that sentiment and mostly stay away from it. But Twitter is a place that groups that exist outside the online hothouse purify inside the online hothouse. So there’s the public health community outside Twitter, and then there’s how it acts inside Twitter — political scientists outside Twitter and then inside Twitter, republicans outside Twitter, then inside Twitter. And my sense was that you ended up in a lot of fights with liberals who had a much lower risk tolerance than you did. And between that and what was, I believe, unfair criticism of the 2016 model, which got the election much more right than most did, that it sort of — you began to see habits of — you call it ‘the village.’ The village is your term for —” “Yeah. And that’s been a term that’s been used by other right. But the village is basically media, politics, government, progressive —” “The establishment.” “The establishment, ‘The New York Times,’ Harvard University.” “The regime.” “The regime. Yeah. The Democratic White House. Maybe not a Republican White House, but that’s a more complicated kind of edge case.” “Or maybe a different Republican White House.” “Yeah.” “Right? George W. Bush was part of the village.” “Absolutely.” “Maybe Donald Trump wasn’t.” “Absolutely.” “I think you’ve also called it the indigo blob in different ways, that you began to see it as a kind of set of aligned cognitive tendencies that you disagreed with. What were they?” “So one of them is the failure to do what I call decoupling. It’s not my term. Decoupling is the act of separating an issue from the context. So the example I give in the book is that if you’re able to say I abhor the Chick-fil-A’s CEO’s position on gay marriage — I don’t know if it’s changed or not, but he was anti-gay marriage, at least for some period of time — but they make a really delicious chicken sandwich. Like, that’s decoupling.” “I abhor their treatment of chickens.” “Yeah.” “I have a strong direct take on Chick-fil-A. I don’t like how they treat chickens.” “O.K. Or you can say or separate out, you know, Michael Jackson, Woody Allen, separate the art from the artist kind of thing. Right? You know, that tendency goes against kind of the tendency on the progressive left to care a lot about the identity of the speaker in terms of the racial or gender identity and in terms of their credentials. And this other world that I call ‘the river,’ the kind of gambling, risk-taking world, all that matters is that you’re right.” “The river is your name for the community of people who think about risk roughly the way you do and are willing to make big bets, willing to accept loss. The river is your — it’s your world of gamblers at all levels of society.” “Capital and lowercase g gambling.” “So hedge funds —” “Expected value.” “— venture capitalists.” “Yeah. And then you get kind of the more —” “Crypto.” “— groundwater stuff where it’s like crypto, and meme stocks, and things like that. It doesn’t matter who you are, it matters that you’re right and you’re able to prove it or bet on it in some way. And that’s very against, I think, the kind of credentialism that you have within the progressive Democratic left, which I also call the indigo blob, because it’s a fusion of purple and blue. There’s not a clear separation between the nonpartisan, centrist media and the left-leaning progressive media that’s kind of rooting for Democrats. Different parts of ‘The New York Times’ have both those functions in place. And as someone who’s kind of more on the nonpartisan side, even though, again, I would prefer to see Kamala Harris than Donald Trump, I think people are exploiting the trust that institutions have earned for political gain. And particularly in the kind of pre-Elon pandemic-era Twitter days, the pile-ons were kind of insane, and 98 percent of people don’t have the tolerance for that. But I didn’t really care because these people are not my friends, and I have a good life outside of Twitter, and because, you know, to some extent, even if you run a newsletter, being a little polarizing is O.K., right? If I have 10 random people yelling at me on Twitter and 10 people sign up to be paid subscribers to ‘Silver Bulletin,’ then I come out like way ahead in that deal. And so I think I couldn’t do my job without running afoul of this group of people.” “Let me ask you about the definition of decoupling there, because I think decoupling is interesting. And I found the examples you pick also interesting but contestable.” “Yeah.” “So in the Chick-fil-A example, I’m between a vegetarian and vegan these days, so I got my own issues with Chick-fil-a, but was not a believer necessarily in boycotting it if you didn’t have my issues. But I understood it as more like a boycott, that theory, right? You don’t want to give money to something that’s going to work against your interests. The question of decoupling art and artist, which I’m more on the side of decoupling, but also has a dimension of — those both strike me as versions of activism, right? What you want to do, what people who hold those positions are trying to do, is affect change in the world by applying consequences to beliefs. And maybe you don’t want that, or you don’t agree that the beliefs they are trying to affect should have those consequences on them. But it’s kind of different than the idea of things are being pressed together that don’t go together. I think an interesting sort of decoupling issue that happened in the pandemic was the same public health voices who were at one point saying you had to be so careful, even outside oftentimes were then pro joining the George Floyd protests, which a lot of people found very upsetting. What people were looking to the public health world for right then was not their views on protests but their views on distancing. And that felt like it coupled things in a way that undermined one to achieve another.” “Well, and they framed it in, like, oh, this is good for public health reasons, right? If they had said, look, I’m a big believer in racial equity; there is a little bit of risk here; but outside, wear a mask, and probably not a huge problem — I mean, that would be honest, right?” “Which ended up being true too.” “Yeah. But instead it was in the name of public health, right? I think people don’t do enough thinking about thinking and don’t read enough of the literature on cognitive biases. Ironically, this is kind of like the expert literature on how powerful the human mind is at confirmation bias, and how powerful a drug political partisanship is, and how smart people are maybe better rationalizes in certain respects. I mean, a lot of irrational traits are like rational on some halfway approximate different version of the universe. You know what I mean?” “My first book was on polarization. And what I understand you as doing in the book in part is making an interesting cut in society between people with different forms of both risk tolerance and thinking about risk. And you write something that caught my eye where you say, quote, ‘COVID made those risk preferences public, worn on our proverbial sleeves and our literal faces.’ And you go on to say, quote, ‘People are becoming more bifurcated in their risk tolerance, and this affects everything from who we hang out with to how we vote.’” “Yeah.” “Tell me about both sides of that — the way that it made risk tolerance visible, but then your view that since then risk tolerance is becoming a deeper cleavage in society.” “I mean, on the one hand, there are lots of signs that risk tolerance is going down, right? Among young people in particular, they’re smoking less, drinking less, doing fewer drugs, having less sex. A different type of risk tolerance, they are less willing to defend free speech norms if it potentially would cause injury to someone. That’s kind of a — free speech is kind of a pro-risk kind of take in some ways because speech can cause effects, of course. On the other hand, you have this boom and bust, and various booms and busts, in crypto. You have Las Vegas bringing in record revenue. You have record revenue in sports betting and things like that. You have the CEO of OpenAI saying, yeah, this might destroy the universe, but it’s worth it. It’s a good gamble to take. You have FTX and all this stuff. And the first trip I made after COVID was to a Casino in Florida, which is every bit the shit show that you think it might be. And the tournament drew record numbers of Poker players. And so it just seems to me like we are in a world now where institutions are less trusted. And some people respond to that by saying, O.K., I make my own rules now, and this is great, and I have lots of agency. And some respond by kind of withdrawing into an online world, or maybe clinging on to beliefs and experts that have lost their credibility, or just by becoming more risk averse. I mean, I think the pandemic also revealed that there’s a lot of differences in introversion versus extroversion. I just can’t deal with being cooped up inside all day. This doesn’t work for me at all. But I think some people kind of secretly like the idea that, O.K., there’s no more FOMO. I can kind of be cozy all day. And that’s fine. There’s differences in desire for human companionship and things like that too.” “Let’s talk about a couple of those people. One of the things that’s kind of fun about the book is you spend time with people whose approach to risk you find sophisticated and interesting.” “Yeah.” “One of them is Peter Thiel. What were your impressions of Peter Thiel? What did he learn spending time with him?” “The first impression is that he’s a weird dude. I interviewed him by phone. And the first question I asked him he took half an hour to answer. So he’s very thoughtful. And the question was what I thought was kind of a softball question. It’s like, if you ran the world 1,000 times or 10,000 times, how often do you think you’d wind up in a situation like the one that you’re in? And it was kind of a nerdy way to ask, do you think you got lucky. Which in Thiel’s case is interesting. There’s an anecdote in the book about this famous or infamous car trip he took with Elon Musk. They were going to pitch Michael Moritz at Sequoia Capital, and Elon had a new McLaren F1 and was going way too fast, and spun out of control in the middle of whichever Sand Hill Road or whatever, and they totaled the car. They could easily have been killed. And instead, they actually hitchhiked to this meeting and saved what was then called Confinity — it was like the future of Paypal, right? And so this twist of fate, twist of good fortune, kind of helped [LAUGHS]: Peter Thiel out. But most people understand, like —” “Wait, how did it help him out? I mean, he didn’t die.” “Well, he didn’t die. So he avoided — yeah, he avoided dying, I guess I’d say. So probably the expectation was not that he’d die. But the point is still that you can easily have a world in which Elon Musk and Peter Thiel are not a part of it if there’s a car going the wrong way and the other side of the road. So most people, when you ask that question — I asked Mark Cuban, for example — they’ll give the politically correct response. Which is, oh, of course I’ve been very lucky, and I’m a talented person, but of course it’s a 1 in a million thing. Right? And Thiel objected to the question. He said, you know, well, if it’s predetermined, then the odds are 100 percent. And if the world’s not predetermined, then the odds are probably approximately zero. But that doesn’t really make sense. Like, how can you perturb the world by exactly this amount? But I think he kind of believes in predestiny a little bit. And —” “As a spiritual thing or as a matter of classical physics?” “There’s a good book by I think Max Chafkin was the journalist — or ‘Chaff-kin’— I don’t how you say his last name — about Peter Thiel called ‘The Contrarian,’ which is convincing that Thiel is actually quite conservative, more than libertarian, and probably quite religious. But I also think that if you ARE one of these people, just the amounts of wealth, and success, and power that Silicon Valley has, I do think some of these people kind of pinch themselves and wonder if they have been one of the chosen ones in some ways or been blessed in some ways, or, maybe the nerdy version of it, think they’re living in a simulation of some kind. Like, what odds would you give yourself that that actually makes sense that you’re the protagonist of the story? It must be kind of weird, right?” “So I used to interview Thiel. Not super regularly but every so often. My impression of him, which has been my impression of a lot of the I would call them ideologist VCs, which is not all VCs, but the ones who are heavily behind or out online and sort of pushing a kind of what I would think of as like VC ideology that leans now right, talking to him always interesting. Because over the course of a conversation, he would offer like 15 or 20 ideas. I would call them more thought experiments than analytical arguments. They were not empirically backed, typically. And you would leave and be like, 13 of those seem genuinely ridiculous to me. Two of them might be very importantly right. I’m not 100 percent sure which are the two and which are the 13. And Peter Thiel, I think, is very — he is a sort of template of the VC mind, and a lot of VCs try to be him. And he’s been very successful. I mean, he’s a guy who has backed a number of very important companies, found a number of very important founders. He is able to do something there. But it is oriented towards being right in important and counterintuitive ways, like, three out of 20 times and doesn’t care about being wrong 17 out of 20 times. Whereas if you think about media, media is oriented towards being right 17 out of 20 times, and the three that it gets wrong are going to be really big because they’re going to be correlated across the entirety of American institutions. But it’s a very different way of thinking about risk. It’s like you want big payouts, not a high betting average.” “And that’s because this is core to the VC mindset. The two things that you hear from every VC, one is the importance of the longer time horizon. So you’re making investments that might not pay off for 10 or 15 years. But number two, even more important, is the asymmetric ability to bet on upside. They are all terrified because they all had an experience early in their career where Mark Zuckerberg walked through their door, or Larry Page or Sergey Brin walked through their door, and they didn’t give them funding. And then they wound up missing on an investment that paid out at 100x or 1000x or 10,000x. And so if you can only lose 1x your money, but you can make 1000x if you have a successful company, then that changes your mindset about everything, and you want to avoid false negatives. You want to avoid missed opportunities. And I think there’s a tendency for a certain type of smart person to provoke, to troll a little bit. I think he’s like that a little bit mean. This is also partly the thing on Twitter, right? I kind of us Twitter sometimes as a sketch pad [LAUGHS]: a little bit for slightly irreverent, half-trollish ideas that might later turn into newsletter posts or something like that, or might be developed further, and probing around and seeing what things land and what don’t. Like a stand mic night at a comedy show or something. And I think that’s how Twitter is meant to be used. But other people use it for enforcing consensus. But we’ve already talked about Twitter. But yeah —” “Well, you can never talk about it enough, particularly with these people. The one thing I will say on that, and I think this is true for virtually everybody I know who has been on that platform for a long period of time, is they will tell you that I have this persona on Twitter.” “Yeah.” “Right? Twitter is not real life. I mean, I use it to provoke. I’m having fun. I’m shitposting. I’m trolling. And people, over time, if they spend a lot of time there, become more like who they are there. That is true for Marc Andreessen, another person who you profile and talk to in the book. It’s true for lots of people in politics I know. Ted Cruz has become his Twitter persona even more than he once was. It happened in Democratic politics I think in 2020. Different campaigns became more like their Twitter incarnations than that person had been in politics before. And I think it has to do with social dynamics. Because over time, the people you get praise from become more persuasive and credible to you. The people who begin to hate you, you sort of repel from. People I think always think they can be playful in their social dynamics, but actually who you end up surrounding yourself, even online, you become them. It’s very, very hard to maintain that kind of separation.” “I mean, clearly, Elon Musk maintained a stance for a while that, oh, I’m just kind of a libertarian moderate. Like, no, he’s kind of like a right-pilled conservative.” “Yeah. And I’m just having fun. I’m posting funny things. He’s his Twitter persona now. You spent some time with Sam Bankman-Fried.” “Yeah.” “Tell me what you learned from him or learned about him.” “I think Sam is kind of insane [CHUCKLES]:, and I’m not very sympathetic to him. I mean, I’m sympathetic in the sense that this is this very dramatic reversal of fortune, where he’s kind of literally emerging and on top of the whole world, and shooting commercials with Tom Brady, and it kind of all collapses, and he becomes very abandoned overnight. So he’s kind of reaching out to a couple of journalists to have conversations because he basically no friends left in the Bahamas anymore. And his parents are there and two of his employees are there, but everyone else has fled the island. Sam is somebody who has to be owned by the river. But, you know, he is unabashedly a part of that world. I mean, he had his tentacles in every part of that world. He was active in Democratic and actually, under the radar, Republican political donations. He was trying to figure out how to get into sports betting legally and things like that. And so he is kind of everywhere. And of course, most of all, with the effect of altruists — in the original plan for the book, there was this awkward transition between the chapter on crypto and the chapter on effective altruism. I’m like, how do I have a natural transition? And then SBF is very important in both worlds, and it’s a very strange connection that somehow crypto profits are funding these people who want to cure malaria or something in Africa. But, you know, I think there are a couple of things. One is that I think people were overly impressed by SBF, partly because he was able to manipulate his self image. I mean, he’s not the most conventionally normal guy, right? But he was very aware that founders — the founder algorithm, the VC algorithm is like we can’t — weirdness is good for VCs. The fact that SBF would play video games in investor pitch meetings or things like that, or dress down, or have a fidget spinner, they’re like, oh, he’s a little bit on the spectrum, and that’s actually probably good for a founder because you want the single-minded devotion. And he’s a little weird, but you want variance, variance, variance.” “Sleeps on a beanbag. Right? There was a real mythos around him.” “Which is kind of carefully constructed. He’s kind of inhabiting a character which is inspired by some inner SBF. And he’s kind of playing that character and then kind of forgets what has ever inner core values, whatever they were, might have been. But he is not a very competent manager of risk. He invested all this money in this Democratic primary for a candidate named Carrick Flynn in Oregon’s — I forget which — six or seventh district, maybe eighth district. And the candidate had been ahead in the polls by 15 points and wound up losing by 15 points. Because to spend $8 million in a congressional primary is kind of insane if you’re not in the New York media market or something. So the candidate would go to people’s houses, and they’d be like, hey, I’m Carrick Flynn. I’m a candidate for the Oregon primary. And they’re like, oh, I have your literature and bring out a stack of 20 flyers that SBF’s super PAC had sent on behalf of Carrick Flynn and made him look like a weird freak backed by this mysterious crypto billionaire. So, yeah, he had a tendency — and this is based on testimony from both the court case and an interview I did with Tara MacAulay I think his her name, his original co-founder at Alameda. He had the kind of often good initial instincts, and being a good estimator is an important skill in my world, but then would kind of double down on that a lot and rationalize things a lot. And there was also a bystander effect problem where so many people vouched for him — Sequoia Capital and all these Oxford philosophers, these effective altruists. And he’s on stage with Bill Clinton or whatever, and he’s invited to the Met Gala, and Tom Brady is shooting commercials with him. So what could possibly be wrong with this guy? I mean, maybe he seems a little bit weird to me, but all these other people are kind of in his corner. But no one was doing the due diligence. And he kind of figured out that despite — there’s a little contradiction in the river, where on the one hand we tend to think of ourselves as being contrarian. On the other hand, we’re pretty big fans of markets, because we know that it’s kind of hard to beat the Las Vegas point spread or it’s hard to beat the S&amp;P 500 Index funds or things like that. So the market judgment is that SBF is a credible actor, and how would I trust my own judgment over the market judgment a little bit. And there was too much deference toward that and too much actually groupthink about SBF, because the problems were evident the whole way. I mean, he told Tyler Cowen that if he could flip a coin to double the amount of utility in the world plus 1 epsilon or something but there’s a 50/50 chance of blowing the world up, that he would take the coin flip and repeatedly.” “So you’re actually getting two earths, but you’re risking a 49 percent chance of it all disappearing.” “And again, I feel compelled to say caveats here of how would you really know that’s what’s happening, blah, blah, blah, whatever. Put that aside. Take the hypothetical — the pure hypothetical. Yeah. Yeah.” “And then you keep on playing the game. So what’s the chance we’re left with anything? Don’t I just Saint Petersburg paradox you into non-existence?” “Well, not necessarily. Maybe Saint Petersburg paradox into an enormously valuable existence. That’s the other option.” “I remember seeing that Tyler Cowen interview and thinking, that’s nuts. But I think it gets at a kind of nuts that there is a bias towards in the world you’re describing. There is an aesthetic around talking in probabilities. There’s an ability to think in probabilities, and there’s an aesthetic around probabilities — people attaching, I would often say, almost random probabilities to things. I see this a lot in Silicon valley, people who I would call it like faux Bayesian reasoning where they’re given some probability, but they have no reason to base the probability — 50 percent of this. And it makes you sound much more precise. It makes you sound like what you’re talking about. SBF was known for always talking in terms of expected value. Which is very appealing to the kinds of people you’re describing, maybe the kind of person even that you are. And people who know how to talk like that get through a lot of filters, because you sort of assume, if they’ve converted everything into probabilities, and they’re great at math, and he worked at Jane Street. I worried about this a lot with effective altruists for a while, which is a group I have a lot more sympathy for than most people now have. But there can be this tendency, I think, to fetishize a certain form of discourse. It’s like the first people into that form of discourse are doing something valuable, and then, after that, I think it can become a kind of costume of sloppy thinking. This worries me about models too. I’m curious how you think about it, because I often find that people talk in terms of probabilities but people hear them in terms of certainties. That somehow talking in terms of probabilities makes people more willing to believe you without actually being skeptical or attaching a failure risk to you.” “Yeah. I mean, there’s two things here. One is just there is a kind of jargon. In some ways I liken being from the river to being from the South of the United States or something, where there’s just a lot of shared cultural norms and unspoken discursive tendencies — it’s just the way we communicate, I think, in the river. But also, it’s really easy to build bad models. Even in narrow problems, like I want to forecast the NFL or something or build an election model, it’s easy to build bad models. And on these open-ended problems, it’s really easy to fall in love with the incomplete model of the world and then forget that — what’s the Kamala Harris coconut tree quote? A model does not fall from a coconut tree. It exists —” “It exists in the context of all that came before it. Sure.” “So a model is supposed to describe something in the real world. And if you lose sight of the real world and it fails to describe the real world, then it’s the model’s fault and your fault for building the model and not the real world’s fault. And that’s a lesson that people, I think, have a lot of trouble learning.” “Bankman-Fried is in prison. Thiel might in some ways be responsible for destroying the Republican ticket this year. I mean, in a close election, JD Vance now seems to have about as much negative value as we’ve seen from a recent Vice President. I’m not saying Peter Thiel’s the only reason Vance got chosen for the ticket, but he is one of the key reasons Vance is in politics. Before now, you would said JD Vance was Peter Thiel’s political bet that paid off best.” “Yeah.” “And now it might be his political bet that pays off worst. You mentioned Bankman-Fried’s political donations, which were kind of disastrous in a direct way sometimes. Also ended up taking a lot of other people down over time. If these guys are so good at making bets or seem to be so good at making bets, what are they missing in politics? As somebody who straddles those worlds, what is not in their models? So both these groups, both the river and the village, are groups of elites. And I think, ironically, both groups’ critiques of one another are kind of true, right? I mean, they kind of can be epistemic trespassers, but they are not very data driven when it comes to politics. And part of it, too, is that if you’re a VC, and you’re evaluating a lot of pitches and a lot of opportunities, you have very quick twitch reflexes for saying, O.K., something about this founder seems smart. Let’s investigate further. Let’s do an initial seed round of investing. But it’s like thin slicing and not necessarily — for this part of the river, the VC part of the river — more profound analytical takes on things. And so you’re surrounded by people that are inclined to agree with you, and you kind of see enemies on the other side. He thought maybe that people had some deeper intuitive sense in 2016 that something was wrong with Hillary Clinton, even though she was ahead in the polls. And to his credit, he did back Trump at a time when that seemed like a big risk to take. It seemed like it was probably going to be the wrong bet, and it seemed like he was losing a lot of credibility. And now, it turns out that he was kind of ahead of the curve. You know, people like Peter Thiel thought that the village had been discredited by 2016 and other things. You can’t really trust the polls, and they said Trump would never do x, y or z. But no, I mean, these guys often are pretty dumb about [LAUGHS]: politics. And it’s the same — the guys in the hedge fund poker game that I play sometimes are the guys that are like, I think Gavin Newsom is going to replace Joe Biden on the ticket. And it’s like, you actually were kind of right about part of this, but why Gavin Newsom? What is the infatuation with Gavin Newsom.” “I heard so many versions of that. I always thought it was so crazy.” “Yeah.” “But, you know, it’s funny. I would say what they’ve often missed, and Thiel’s particular on this, is how human beings react to different human beings. So JD Vance, for instance, wildly underperforms in the Ohio Senate race. And Vance’s problem right now, he’s pushed onto the ticket by, as best we can tell, people like Steve Bannon, Don Trump, Jr., Tucker Carlson, Elon Musk — so the very online, very reactionary pale, the people around Trump. And what is missed about him is he’s kind of offputting. He doesn’t talk to other people in a way they would like to be spoken to. He’s able to make even popular ideas like a child tax credit sound completely bizarre when he talks about them in terms of punishing childless adults — that there is something here, I think, when people look at the world — and I’ve seen this in a lot of different dimensions of these kinds of folks — when they look at the world too much in numbers, the intangibles begin to dissolve for them.” “Although I think some of these tangibles aren’t so intangible. Right? Where you can look at JD Vance’s margins in Ohio, you can look at historically candidates who don’t have experience getting elected to some lower office and then ascending the ranks, underperform. It’s been a factor in our congressional midterm models for years, for example. But, look, in some ways, these VCs are obviously incredibly, deeply flawed people. And so, why do they succeed despite that? I think because the idea of having a longer time horizon, number one, and being willing to make these plus expected value, positive expected value, high risk, but very, very, very high-upside bets, and gathering a portfolio of them repeatedly, and making enough of these bets that you effectively do hedge your risk, those two ideas are so good that it makes up for the fact that these guys often have terrible judgment and are kind of vainglorious assholes — half of them, right? They’re interesting people too. I mean, they’re very interesting I think. And they — I’m happy that the book is able to present, I think, a complete journalistic portrait of some of them. But they have lots and lots of flaws, and it’s made up for by the fact that this is kind of a magic formula for making money.” “Let me get us back to the election. So we mentioned before Harris’s approval ratings have gone from significantly underwater to net favorable very, very fast. She’s now leading in head-to-head polls. More than that, there’s a real deep, whatever Republicans have convinced themselves to the contrary, organic enthusiasm that has unleashed itself around her. She turns out to be very memeable in a way I’m not sure people quite predicted. I know most Democrats didn’t predict this. I don’t think you predicted it. So what was missed here? What wasn’t in the Harris model that should have been?” “Yeah, maybe you really can meme your way to victory. [CHUCKLES]: I don’t know. I wouldn’t necessarily have thought that. I mean, there’s something about how it’s off trend a little bit, and it’s kind of unexpected a little bit. And there’s something about that, that I think people were ready for a vibe shift, right? I think people in politics neglect just how annoying the pedantic, dramatic, no fun tone of politics was and the having to be like serious all the time. And if the worst Republicans can say about Kamala Harris, oh, she laughs a lot, maybe it kind of suits the mood a little bit after so many years of doom and gloom. So maybe it was just spontaneous and lucky. I mean, it’s also the case maybe when Kamala Harris was a candidate for the nomination in 2019, I had these tiers, and the top tier was Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. And the line was always, O.K., I got one of those right and one of those about as wrong as possible. But she was seen as this rising, up-and-coming political talent, and maybe the combination of misaligned strategy in 2019 and then not being marketed well by the White House, and we debated before what the reasons for that are, maybe that was the underperformance. And the rising star that people thought she was kind of the real Kamala Harris after all.” “So Harris ended up choosing Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota, as her VP pick. You made a case that it should have been Josh Shapiro. Tell me why.” “Pennsylvania, number one. There’s about a 4 percent chance in our model that Harris will lose the election because of Pennsylvania, where she wins the other Midwestern swing states but she’s 19 votes or fewer electoral votes fewer because of Pennsylvania. And if you’re a probabilist, then a 4 percent chance — because campaigns often don’t make a difference, right? If we go into a recession in the third quarter, then Harris will probably lose through no fault of her own. But in the worlds where campaign strategy can make a difference, then the VP being from Pennsylvania is a reasonably big upgrade. And the fact that he has demonstrated his popularity with this very diverse state that’s kind of a microcosm of the US as a whole — in Pennsylvania, you have the Northeast, you have the Midwest, and even you have a little bit of the South creeping in the Appalachian part of the state. You have the suburbs, you have rural areas, and you have one of the biggest cities in the United States. You have a big African-American vote. You have lots of famous colleges and things like that. You have everything there, and he’s 15 points above water approval-wise. And that’s pretty powerful information to work with. I happen to think that Tim Walz is an above-average pick, better than most, better than JD Vance. Not a particularly high bar, but better than a lot of the recent picks. I mean, I think he’s kind of memeable as America’s goofy dad kind of way, and he had a pretty moderate track record in Congress. And again, my premise is that, generally speaking, moderation wins. A lot of people disagree with that, but I think the empirical evidence is strong there. More progressive governance, of course, in Minnesota. But I think it was a somewhat risk-averse decision. Now, if you read —” “Why do you say that? I found this argument you’ve made very weird. So I think there’s a very good chance — I always told people on the VP pick my head says Shapiro and my heart says Walz.” “Yeah.” “I think that because I am a cautious person, if I were running for president, worried about losing Pennsylvania, I would have found it very hard not to pick Shapiro. Because if you don’t pick Shapiro, and you end up in a we lost Pennsylvania scenario, everybody’s going to blame you for blowing the decision that could have won Pennsylvania. In terms of the expected value, both on the front end and the back end, I understood Walz as a choice on vibes, this sort of energy, this momentum she has created. He was sort of able to upend and remake all Democratic messaging in a single morning Joe appearance. There is some intangible charisma to Walz that has made him — developed him overnight, this huge online fan base, that the cautious candidate, the one, listening to the consultants, the one reading Nate Silver polls, that candidate goes with Shapiro. Walz is something else. Why did you say that you understood Walz as risk averse?” “Because I think they were worried about news cycles where the left got mad, and/or the Gaza issue was elevated, and/or you had protests at the convention in Chicago in a couple of weeks. I think they were worried about that, and maybe kind of undermining what is clearly good vibes right now, and maybe overrating — I mean, maybe it’s not. Maybe I just think it’s the lower expected value decision of what gives Kamala Harris a higher chance of winning the electoral college in November.” “I think one of the questions I’ve been reflecting on — because I often think about, where do I disagree with writers I otherwise agree with? And I think I’m typically pretty aligned with you on a bunch of things, or Iglesias, or [INAUDIBLE], or some others. But a lot of you have really gotten into a view that I think takes the median voter theorem almost too seriously. That it’s like as if politics is unidimensional, and how close you are to ideologically the median voter is what decides elections. Which I do think moderation has an effect in. I mean, we see this in the political science research. But that doesn’t have a lot of room in that model for energy, for enthusiasm, for the mediation of politics — the thing that happens in between the candidate and the public for what is happening on social media, for what is happening on cable news. And you can often sort of back out explanations here and there. But I, for instance, think this sort of in retrospect explanation that what led Obama to victory was careful moderation — one of the things he did was moderate on some issues like gay marriage. Another thing he did was unleash astonishing levels of enthusiasm in the electorate for reasons orthogonal in many ways to his policy positions. And so I’m curious how you think about that. Because to me, one of the questions Shapiro and Walz raised, Shapiro and Harris sort of are a lot like each other. I think they sort of come off as the two smartest members of the law review. Right?” “Yeah, that’s interesting —” “Which is like kind of —” “— for sure.” “— not necessary the visual you want — maybe it is but might not be — and that there is something here that is I guess people call it vibes now. I feel like it’s a little dismissive. But how you play out in earned media, in social media, how much people want to talk about you, that feeling of enthusiasm, how do you think about that as somebody who builds models and handicaps politics?” “I mean, look, if you’re literally building a congressional model, there’s a model that forecasts the vote based on fundamentals, which means not the polls if you don’t have polling, for example, based on whatever it is, seven or eight factors. And one of those factors, if you’re incumbent, is how often do you vote with your party. And the more often you buck your party, actually the more often — like Susan Collins or Joe Manchin — then you tend to overperform in your congressional race. Now, that’s also one of eight factors. Right? And even when you have all eight factors, there’s still quite a bit of uncertainty in the race. So to me, it’s like this is something where if you’re used to looking at larger data sets, you can come up with counterexamples of Jon Tester is pretty progressive actually and somehow manages to get reelected in Montana with this kind of maybe Tim Walz-like folksy personality or something —” “Sherrod Brown. Sort of similar to that.” “Also pretty progressive. But if you take all the data from every congressional race since 1990, then it becomes clear in the aggregate, right? And I’d also say, if we could get progressives to the point where — I don’t know who we is in this sentence, because I’m not sure I identify as progressive — liberal but not progressive, I’d say — if we could get them to the point where they said, yes, the median voter theorem is mostly true but sometimes outweighed by other factors. But yeah, to get them to that point, instead of thinking, oh, you win elections by winning the base — I mean, that might have narrowly been true in an earlier —” “Wait, you’re turning this around on progressives. Because I’m asking it of you. I agree that progressives should take the median voter theorem more seriously. But I am asking you whether energy, enthusiasm, media — I just think attention in politics is undertheorized. I think if you look at Donald Trump, and you do a thing that I’ve seen people do, and say, look, he is more like the median voter on certain things like immigration, et cetera, or at least he was perceived as more moderate than Hillary Clinton and that’s why he won, I think that is an undertold story about Donald Trump that is somewhat true. I think that missing the showmanship of Donald Trump, the entertainment value, the energy he unlocks in people. There’s a reason that Trump had Dana White from the UFC and Hulk Hogan on his night of the RNC. So in 2020, Joe Biden’s view is that the election should be about Donald Trump, and Donald Trump’s view is that the election should be about Donald Trump. And that was a theory of attention they both agreed on, and it worked out for Joe Biden. In 2024, Joe Biden’s view is the election should be about Donald Trump. Donald Trump’s view was the election should probably be about Donald Trump. And that was a bad theory of attention. Biden had no way of shifting a narrative that wasn’t any good for him.” “Yeah.” “And so I guess this is what I’m getting at, that one thing that I worry about in some of this thinking among people I like is that attention is important. Candidates have different theories of it, but I don’t know that we know how to think about it as rigorously as I wish we did.” “Look, I agree. I mean, again, with Harris, maybe you do have to revise your views a little bit. I think also maybe in a campaign that’s a sprint and not a marathon, then maybe you never reach the long run. It seems possible. Usually, I’d say don’t worry about momentum over the next two weeks, because inevitably you’re going to have a bad news cycle later on. It’s just how the media works and it’s how elections work. It is possible they can just sprint their way to a memeified victory in this shortened, modified campaign. That they have a good convention, and that she wins whenever the debate is held, and then you’re in October and everyone’s crazy and explicitly partisan, they may be able to sprint to a narrow electoral college victory without having this skeptical news cycle. So that may be an argument for Walz, I think.” “One of the reasons on my mind is not actually Walz. And as I said before, because I do want to say this, I’m not sure who she should have picked as VP. I actually have very conflicted views on this, although I really, really enjoy Tim Walz, and really enjoyed interviewing him, and think he’s a pretty unusual political talent. But I think you could say the same about Josh Shapiro in different ways, and Pennsylvania is a very big state. But I’ve been interested in the shift in — look, you have a campaign staffed by many of the same people, particularly in the first two weeks, and yet the campaign’s tenor has completely changed. The tone of press releases is now they are trying to get you to talk about them and doing that by courting controversy, by being kind of mean in a way. Democrats have not been mean in a long time. That Tim Walz actually made a JD Vance couch joke in his introducing himself as her vice presidential pick speech — let’s put it this way, that is not something that Joe Biden campaign was going to do. They want people to talk about them. They want to court kind of controversy, outrage. They want attention. But I think the reason it’s all on my mind is what I am seeing in them is a radically different relationship to attention than the campaign that the same people were running two weeks ago.” “Yeah. And this why we rely on you for how much these people overlap. Like, that’s not something I really —” “They overlap tremendously.” “Yeah.” “I mean, it’s not the exact same people. Mike Donilon isn’t running things anymore. But there’s enough of the same people here that you’re not dealing with ‘nobody knew how to write these press releases’ a month ago.” “It is interesting that Joe Biden, based on the polling, would probably have been better off in election with low turnout. The one thing that might have saved him is if you get that special election, midterm election, lower turnout where people aren’t very happy about it, but they go to the polls and vote for Biden and the Trump people don’t bother to show up. Because unlike in the past, the marginal voters have been more likely to vote for Trump than for Biden. So maybe by having a really boring campaign, it kind of suited their interests. With Harris, who is bringing back some of the younger voters and some of the voters of color that had defected to Kennedy, or defected to Trump, or defected to sitting out the election, those are also some of the more marginal voters. And so, now, all of a sudden, she probably doesn’t mind as much higher turnout which is going to get young Latino women to vote for her or young Black men to vote for her when they might not have voted for Biden. And so it kind of matches the incentives of where you want to turnout to be on November 5.” “Tim Alberta in the Atlantic had a great piece on the way the Trump campaign was thinking about the race that came out around the time of the debate or right after the debate. And they felt they had Nevada, North Carolina completely locked up — and Georgia — and that this was really a race in three, maybe four states. My understanding is Harris and her team think they have re-expanded the map. They think that Nevada, Arizona, Georgia are for sure back in play. They think that North Carolina might be back in play. Do you think that’s true? Do you think the map has gotten bigger?” “I think that’s right. Because, again, look at the voters that Biden was falling off with. Nevada, people don’t remember, they think of it as kind of libertarian old miners, right? No, Nevada is extremely diverse, and it’s working class voters of color. Big fall-off constituency for Biden. Georgia, you have tons of young professionals, and tons of great colleges and universities, and, of course, tons of Black voters — the same groups that he’s declining from a little bit. North Carolina has been, interestingly, kind of close in the polls. Arizona is the one that didn’t seem to have moved quite as much, though there was one poll yesterday with Harris ahead there. But that’s right. I mean, I think the map has expanded, and it’s obviously plausible again now that she would win Georgia, especially with the Brian Kemp stuff not helping Trump one bit. At the moment — I was playing in a poker tournament, very on-brand, right — when Trump gets shot and has the iconic photo, which I’m not a Trump fan, but you kind of have to admire that, I think a little bit, I think a lot of people assume he’s going to win the election. I mean, with Biden already, he’s not going to lose after this. They try to shoot him, and he has this great photo opportunity, right? And then it seems like he’s at a high water mark. And then he picks JD Vance, and I think got a little arrogant.” [LAUGHS] “Because his initial instinct apparently was not to pick necessarily JD Vance and kind of talked out of it by his sons. And I don’t know what influence Peter Thiel or whatever had. But the VC guys were like, oh, JD Vance is kind of one of us. And he probably is smarter than the average VP or something. But that appeal has been demonstrated not to work. I mean, you saw it with Blake Masters for example, right? It works every now and then. I guess Rick Scott had a background in I don’t know what exactly, but like —” “Medicare fraud.” “O.K., yeah. [LAUGHS]: But for the most part, these —” “The guy the guy ran a health company that was convicted of the single largest Medicare fraud at that point in history.” “What I tell my VC friends is if you have a rich guy, just have him buy a basketball team or something. He’s not going to come across very well to the average voter. And I think they don’t understand that. And then, again, in a poker tournament or a poker home cash game, when you go from having a big stack and you’re kind of like, oh, this is so nice. Man, I’m going to go home and cash out my winnings. Maybe I’ll have a nice little whiskey at the bar or something. And this is going to be — I’ll text my friends about how well my session ran. And then you lose a big pot, and then you lose another big pot, and then you go on tilt. And before long, you have no chips left.” “What is tilt?” “Tilt is playing emotionally, particularly in poker or other forms of gambling. It’s often sparked by a bad beat. Meaning that you got unlucky. Or it can be sparked by getting bluffed and getting mad at your opponent. Or bad luck. Or sometimes you can actually have what’s called winner’s tilt too, where maybe this is what Trump had in picking JD Vance. You have a bunch of things that are going really well. I mean, this election was going about as well as it could for Donald Trump. He’s not a popular guy, yet he had moved ahead in some of the National polls by four or five points. It’s pretty hard to do. I mean, he’s lost the popular vote twice.” “Trump feels very on tilt to me. When you think about him, for Donald Trump, he had been pretty on his message. He was talking a lot about immigration. He was talking a lot about inflation. He was letting it be known that he was thinking about picking Doug Burgum. He seemed to be enjoying this idea that he was — people were longing for a stability They now associated with his presidency rightly or wrongly. They wanted the lower prices back. They don’t like the war in Gaza. They don’t like the war in Ukraine. Maybe Trump is a strong man who can bring it back. And he was kind of playing into that. And since the Harris switch and him beginning to fall in the polls, you feel this old Trump returning. The Trump who goes to Georgia and begins yelling at the governor — the Republican governor — of Georgia. The Trump that goes to the National Association of Black Journalists and begins to talk about how nobody knew Kamala Harris was Black. The Trump who is just trying out attack lines, trying to find something that will work no matter what the kind of cost might be. I mean, your description of him playing emotionally — he’s not listening to anybody right now. He’s flailing.” “And the fact that, according to the reporting, that they weren’t prepared for the eventuality when Joe Biden dropped out was kind of inexcusable. I mean, if you looked at prediction markets, it was immediately a live consideration after the debate. I think they overestimated the degree to which Democrats are a personality cult. I mean, they can be. There was maybe a personality cult around Obama, or Bill Clinton, or things like that. But there wasn’t one around Joe Biden. He was kind of always the candidate of the party. And it was not in the party’s interest any longer to have him as their nominee. And so the Democratic Party is capable and powerful in a way the GOP is not. And they extrapolated from their views to how Democrats would behave and underestimated the smart decision that the party was capable of making.” “I talked to Republicans about this, about why they weren’t more prepared, and one thing I heard from them is they just didn’t think Biden was going to step aside. I mean, if you’re a party that has completely bent the knee to Donald Trump and is now years and years into not being able to convince Donald Trump of functionally anything, it might shift your sense of how people in power, particularly the apex of power, act. It’s one reason — this is a place where you and I’ve been a little bit different — I’ve been more on the side of Joe Biden did something difficult that deserves praise. Because — and I think you see this in how Republicans were thinking — leaders just often don’t do this. The kind of personality that gets you to that point is not the kind of personality that leaves power gracefully. It’s why, when people are talking about dictators, there’s endlessly this talk of how to create golden parachutes for dictators. You’re dealing with a kind of human being that has told a story about their own essentialness. Going back to your point about Elon Musk and feeling like you’re the main character of global life — particularly you’ve become the American president — you sort of were the main character of global life for a while — that does something to you. Those people don’t give it up easily.” “No. And if you look at the history of — before there was whichever Amendment it was, 20-something Amendment —” “22.” “— that prevents you from running for more than two terms, it was pretty routine for candidates to tease — Woodrow Wilson had a stroke and wanted a third term. Harry Truman had like a 32 percent approval rating and wanted a third term, second full term. Old men are often pretty stubborn. And I think the most interesting thing is that if Harris wins — or maybe comes close, but mostly if she wins — what that will say about the primary system, right? Maybe we should go back to giving a larger role to superdelegates for example.” “I want to end on a part of your book I found really interesting, which is about the physical experience of risk — in gambling, but in other things. You talk about pain tolerance. You talk about how the body feels when you’re behind on a hand and you’re losing your chips. You’ve talked about being on tilt. But I see it in politics too. I mean, there is a physical question that comes into the decisions you make. I see it on this podcast. There are times when a question is physically uncomfortable for me to ask another person. Tell me a bit about how you think about this relationship between the body and the ability to act under pressure to make intuitive decisions in moments of very high stress.” “So human beings have tens of thousands of years of evolutionary pressure which is inclined to respond in a heightened way to moments that are high stakes, that are high-stress moments. If you’ve ever been in a situation where you saw someone’s life in danger or your own life was in danger — you know, I was in LA in January, and there was an armed robbery outside the place where I was trying to get just a cup of coffee. And time kind of slows down a little bit in situations like that. And you don’t realize how stressed out you are until I texted my partner and be like, LOL, almost got shot, ha, ha. And I was kind of like, oh yeah, I was too cool for school. And then an hour later, I’m getting some tacos or something and I almost break down. It’s like, oh my god, it could have gone really, really badly. Public speaking also triggers this for people because objectively it’s a pretty high-stakes thing. If you’re playing a $1 or $2 poker game, and it’s nothing for you, your body will when you’re playing a $100-200 game where it really matters — you will just know. You’ll experience that stress. Even if you suppress it consciously, it will still affect the way that you’re literally kind of ingesting your five senses. So if your heart rate goes up, that has discernible effects. But actually, your body is providing you with more information. You’re taking in more in these kind of short bursts of time. People who can master that zone — and I use the term zone intentionally, because it’s very related to being ‘in the zone’ like Michael Jordan used to talk about, or golfers, or hockey goalies, or whatever else — learning to master that and relish that is a very powerful skill. Because you are experiencing physical stress whether you want to or not.” “How much is that, in your view, in your experience, learnable, and how much of it is a kind of natural physical intelligence some people have and some people don’t?” “I think it’s actually quite learnable. It’s a little bit like if you’ve been on mushrooms before [LAUGHS]: then you kind of learn, oh, this is the part of the brain that is — this is the things that look a little funny when you’re on mushrooms, right? You can kind of maybe tone it up or tone it down a little bit. So it’s very much like that. I mean, it’s terrifying the first time it happens. But when you start to recognize it, and you kind of make a conscious effort to slow down a little bit, and take your time, and try to execute the basics, it’s not as much about trying to be a hero. It’s about trying to execute the basics. Because when everyone’s losing their shit, if you can do your basic ABC blocking and tackling, then you’re ahead of 95 percent of people. And keeping bandwidth free for dealing with emergency situations, that will take you very far.” “It’s funny, because that feels to me like a very important question that is hard to test in politics.” “Yeah.” “People have to make profound decisions under incredibly high stress. And we have simulacrums of it. The debate, in a way, is a simulacrum of that. Very, very high stress. Speeches on teleprompters are not very good analogies for that. But this question of how good is a person at that moment —” “I mean —” “— how do you evaluate that?” “I mean, Trump, after getting shot, kind of performed very well. And I think, again, the Harris moment of leaping right into action to secure the nomination also has to be seen as very good performance under stress. And Biden’s failure under stress — I mean, he went to some kind of spiral of some kind or another, physical, or mental, or whatever else. So those kind of three pivotal moments — the assassination, the debate, and then Harris seizing the nomination in record time — speak to the difference in performance. And that’s why the two of them, Harris and Trump, are still candidates for the presidency, and Biden is not.” “I was just reading Nancy Pelosi’s new book before I was reading yours, because I just had her on the show, and she talks about how, above all, she says, that what a Speaker of the House needs is intuition. They need to be able to act. And she says that the key thing is you have to act fast. Because every moment you don’t act, your options are diminishing. And I ended up thinking, then, when reading your book, of it. Because what she was describing is quite, I think, for her, physical. Like something in her knows how to act and is unafraid to act in those moments. The thing that was crucial about her, I think, in this process, inside the Democratic Party of getting Biden out, is she was willing to act in public to take the pressure of that in ways very few people were. And somebody had to be doing that in public to create space for others to be considering it in private. But you look at her career, and she has this sort of intuitive capability to know when to move. And there’s something in it that I don’t think she can explain how she does it, but it makes her a fascinating leader. People believe that she will act. And she will act because something in her knows when to act, and she’s unafraid.” “Yeah. So is gut instinct overrated or underrated? Well, it depends on how much experience you have, right? Poker players have — because now poker is actually kind of a solved game. There are computer solvers they’re called that spit out this very complicated solution to poker. Hard to execute in practice, but it’s technically speaking a solved game. However, the best poker players can have uncannily good instincts based on reading physical tells, just the kind of vibe someone gives off. And if — you know, I played a lot of Poker and writing this book, more live poker than I have in the past, and you develop a sixth sense. Not all the time. It helps if you’re well rested. But you develop a sixth sense for whether someone has a strong hand or something. Like they’re glowing green or something almost sometimes. And you can test it, because you can say, I know that I’m supposed to fold this hand here. It’s a little bit too weak to call against a bluff. But I just have a sense that he’s bluffing. And lo and behold, you’re right more often than you’d think — more often than you need to be to make that call correct based on the odds that you’re getting from the pot. So if Nancy Pelosi has decades and decades of experience in politics and reading the moves of how the coalition is moving, I mean, that’s something where intuition probably plays a pretty good role. And also the fact that being willing to work with incomplete information — I mean, I don’t know how much longer Biden could have — maybe they could have run out the clock [LAUGHS]: potentially.” “Oh, they 100 percent could of. That day when he sent that letter to congressional Democrats and said, I’m not leaving — this conversation is over, stop trying to overturn the will of the primary voters — I was getting congressional Democrats telling me, this is done. It’s a fait accompli. He’s quelled the rebellion. It looked to me like he had. I was talking to other people. They said, 10 percent shot he’s out. Nancy Pelosi goes on ‘Morning Joe’ two days later and says, we’re really looking forward to him making a decision. And I asked her about it. And I said, what was happening? I mean, he had just sent that letter. And she said, yeah, but that was just a letter.” “Yeah.” “I didn’t accept the letter as anything but a letter. I mean, there are some people who were unhappy with the letter. Let me say it a different — some said that some people were unhappy with the letter. I’ll put it in somebody else’s mouth. Because it was a — I don’t think — it didn’t sound like Joe Biden to me.” “I’m like, oh, you read a bluff.” “So I think Nancy Pelosi might be pretty good at poker.” “Good place to end. Always our final question — what are three books you’d recommend to the audience.” “So one book is pertinent to the discussion that we had a moment ago, which is called ‘The Hour Between Dog and Wolf.’ It’s written by John Coates, who is an academic economist who then became a derivatives trader, I think, for Deutsche Bank in New York and found out that the traders that he studied were really weird. Like these traders would have strange physical and mental stress responses to the market rising or falling. And he was so fascinated by it that he went back and became a neuroscientist and basically did studies of traders. So you test the testosterone of like an options trader or a guy who works at a hedge fund and see how it varies from day to day and correlates with performance. So yeah, so he studies the physical responses of risk-takers, and the book is called ‘The Hour Between Dog and Wolf.’ So that’s one recommendation. Number two, in a totally different direction, ‘The Making of the Atomic Bomb’ by Richard Rhodes. We didn’t talk as much about some of the AI stuff today, but at the end of the book there’s a pretty long, elaborate comparison between the Manhattan Project and the building of these large language models that some people think could be potentially very dangerous. And nuclear weapons are, I think, a pivot point in human history, and this book is kind of the best history of that. The third is called ‘Addiction by Design,’ by Natasha Schüll. And Natasha is an NYU anthropologist who studied Las Vegas as her thesis basically. She did a lot of reporting just about the properties of slot machines, and how addictive they are, and about the kind of casino gambling industry in general. And of course, she draws metaphors between that and the rest of society.” “Nate Silver, thank you very much.” “Thank you, Ezra.” [THEME MUSIC]

The last I looked, your model has Kamala Harris winning the election at around 52 percent — it might be a little different today. But this has been an unusual election. How much stock do you put in your model right now?

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