the future of english essay

What will the English language be like in 100 years?

Professor of English Language and Literature, University of Oxford

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One way of predicting the future is to look back at the past. The global role English plays today as a lingua franca – used as a means of communication by speakers of different languages – has parallels in the Latin of pre-modern Europe.

Having been spread by the success of the Roman Empire, Classical Latin was kept alive as a standard written medium throughout Europe long after the fall of Rome. But the Vulgar Latin used in speech continued to change, forming new dialects, which in time gave rise to the modern Romance languages: French, Spanish, Portuguese, Romanian and Italian.

Similar developments may be traced today in the use of English around the globe, especially in countries where it functions as a second language. New “interlanguages” are emerging, in which features of English are mingled with those of other native tongues and their pronunciations.

Despite the Singaporean government’s attempts to promote the use of Standard British English through the Speak Good English Movement , the mixed language known as “Singlish” remains the variety spoken on the street and in the home.

Spanglish, a mixture of English and Spanish, is the native tongue of millions of speakers in the United States , suggesting that this variety is emerging as a language in its own right.

Meanwhile, the development of automatic translation software, such as Google Translate , will come to replace English as the preferred means of communication employed in the boardrooms of international corporations and government agencies.

So the future for English is one of multiple Englishes.

Looking back to the early 20th century, it was the Standard English used in England, spoken with the accent known as “ Received Pronunciation ”, that carried prestige.

But today the largest concentration of native speakers is in the US, and the influence of US English can be heard throughout the world: can I get a cookie , I’m good , did you eat , the movies ,_ “skedule”_ rather than “shedule” . In the future, to speak English will be to speak US English.

US spellings such as disk and program are already preferred to British equivalents disc and programme in computing. The dominance of US usage in the digital world will lead to the wider acceptance of further American preferences, such as favorite , donut , dialog , center .

What is being lost?

In the 20th century, it was feared that English dialects were dying out with their speakers. Projects such as the Survey of English Dialects (1950-61) were launched at the time to collect and preserve endangered words before they were lost forever. A similar study undertaken by the BBC’s Voices Project in 2004 turned up a rich range of local accents and regional terms which are available online , demonstrating the vibrancy and longevity of dialect vocabulary.

But while numerous dialect words were collected for “young person in cheap trendy clothes and jewellery” – pikey , charva , ned , scally – the word chav was found throughout England, demonstrating how features of the Estuary English spoken in the Greater London area are displacing local dialects, especially among younger generations.

The turn of the 20th century was a period of regulation and fixity – the rules of Standard English were established and codified in grammar books and in the New (Oxford) English Dictionary on Historical Principles , published as a series of volumes from 1884-1928. Today we are witnessing a process of de-standardisation, and the emergence of competing norms of usage.

In the online world, attitudes to consistency and correctness are considerably more relaxed: variant spellings are accepted and punctuation marks omitted, or repurposed to convey a range of attitudes. Research has shown that in electronic discourse exclamation marks can carry a range of exclamatory functions, including apologising, challenging, thanking, agreeing, and showing solidarity.

Capital letters are used to show anger, misspellings convey humour and establish group identity, and smiley-faces or emoticons express a range of reactions.

Getting shorter

Some have questioned whether the increasing development and adoption of emoji pictograms , which allow speakers to communicate without the need for language, mean that we will cease to communicate in English at all? ;-)

The fast-changing world of social media is also responsible for the coining and spreading of neologisms, or “new words”. Recent updates to Oxford Dictionaries give a flavour: mansplaining , awesomesauce , rly , bants , TL;DR (too long; didn’t read).

Clipped forms, acronyms, blends and abbreviations have long been productive methods of word formation in English (think of bus , smog and scuba ) but the huge increase in such coinages means that they will be far more prominent in the English of 2115.

Whether you 👍 or h8 such words, think they are NBD or meh , they are undoubtedly here to stay.

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Language of the Future: What English Will Look Like in 100 Years

By: Author Valerie Forgeard

Posted on Published: October 9, 2023  - Last updated: January 4, 2024

Categories Society

The future of English, a language deeply rooted in various global territories from the United States to the United Kingdom, and spoken by myriad native speakers, poses a fascinating puzzle for linguists and English speakers alike.

As we navigate through the 21st century, witnessing the incorporation of new words into prominent databases like Oxford Dictionaries, we find ourselves in contemplation: What will English, a predominant native language for many and a secondary one for others, transform into a century from now?

Key Takeaways

• Grammar and vocabulary will continue to evolve and adapt to societal, cultural, and technological shifts.
• Phonetic shifts will lead to changes in pronunciation and accent, influenced by increased communication and exposure to different languages.
• Technological advancements, such as AI language learning and digital dialect creation, will revolutionize language acquisition and shape modes of communication.
• Globalization will result in the incorporation of foreign words into everyday vocabulary and challenge traditional notions of linguistic purity and dominance.

Predictions for the Evolution of English Language

You’re probably wondering what changes we might see in the English language over the next century. One of the key areas you should watch out for is grammar evolution. The rules that dictate sentence structure and word usage aren’t static; they’ve undergone changes before and will continue to do so.

A second aspect to consider is phonetic shifts, which refers to how sounds in a language change over time. As our world becomes increasingly globalized, different accents and pronunciations bleed into one another, causing these shifts.

Influence of Technological Advancements on English

Considering how much technology is shaping our modes of communication, it’s fascinating to speculate on its potential impact on language in the future.

AI Language Learning could revolutionize how we acquire new languages . Imagine a future where you’re taught English by an AI tutor that can adapt to your learning pace and style. That’s not all.

The rise of digital dialects creation is another intriguing prospect. As more people interact in unique online communities, they may develop distinct ‘internet dialects’. These digital dialects could become so prevalent that they influence spoken English as we know it today.

You might witness an ever-evolving mix of internet slang and traditional vocabulary, creating a dynamic, rich linguistic landscape for future generations. It’s a brave new world indeed!

Changes in English Vocabulary Over the Next Century

It’s possible that over the next century, drastic changes may occur in our vocabulary due to technological advancements and cultural shifts. As you navigate this evolving linguistic landscape, consider the English slang evolution and vocabulary extinction.

These transformations aren’t guaranteed but reflect potential pathways for language innovation.

The pace of change might accelerate, leading to a higher rate of vocabulary extinction.

You’ll bear witness to this language shift as society adopts new terms while others fade into obscurity. It’s a fascinating glimpse into how languages adapt to changing worldviews and technologies.

The Impact of Globalization on English in the Future

In the era of globalization, you’ll notice an influx of foreign words entering your everyday vocabulary. This is a direct impact of cultural assimilation effects and it’s likely to accelerate in the future, creating an interesting dialect emergence.

You might find yourself using more non-English phrases daily, imbuing conversations with global flavor. English may evolve into a melting pot language reflecting our interconnected world. Cultural nuances could be better understood through language. The richness and diversity of languages could be celebrated rather than subdued.

As these changes occur, they’ll challenge traditional notions of linguistic purity and dominance. Embrace this evolution; it’s a testament to our shared human experience.

Now let’s delve into the role of linguistic research in shaping future English.

The Role of Linguistic Research in Shaping Future English

Linguistic research plays a key role in shaping how we’ll communicate in the future, not just with words but also through syntax and semantics.

You’ll see linguistic diversity increase as different dialects and languages merge into English, creating hybrid languages that are unique yet familiar.

Research methodologies will be critical to understanding these changes. They’ll serve as the tools you use to document, analyze, and predict trends in language evolution.

By studying variations in speech patterns across regions and cultures, you can anticipate how these influences might reshape English over time.

As technology progresses, computational linguistics may become more prominent too—the marriage of human insight and machine learning could unlock new depths of understanding about our ever-evolving language landscape.

The Evolving Tapestry of English Learning

Imagine a world 100 years from now, where learning English is like going on an exciting adventure, full of amazing experiences and stories from all over the globe.

Today, learning a new word might mean reading a book or using an app, but in the future, technology might allow us to explore the English language in ways we can’t even imagine yet! Picture learning not just from books or online platforms like Oxford Dictionaries but through fantastic journeys where we can hear, see, and maybe even think in different English dialects without leaving our homes.

Kids and adults might explore the English language used in different countries like the United Kingdom, North America, South Africa, and East Asia, experiencing their unique sounds and uses of words. Instead of simply learning from a teacher or a program, they might travel through historical moments, from ancient times in England to the busy streets of 21st-century New York, understanding how English has changed and grown through time and across continents.

So, learning English wouldn’t just be about memorizing words and grammar but would be a fun, time-traveling adventure, discovering how people from various parts of the world use this global language in their own special way!

English, tethered to its rich and expansive history and utilized across diverse regions from North America to South Africa, is undeniably on a trajectory of change, shaped by every speaker, every new word, and every linguistic nuance introduced by the younger generation.

As we peep into the linguistic future, what English will become in the next 100 years emerges not merely as a theoretical question for linguists but a dynamic, living evolution that is being crafted daily by each user, each innovator, and each new interaction on the global stage.

Enrich Your Understanding: Recommended Reads for the Future-Minded

As we wrap up our exploration, it’s evident that the evolution of language is just one facet of the broader changes shaping our future. To further expand your horizon and understanding of what lies ahead, we suggest two compelling articles that offer valuable insights into other aspects of our changing world.

First, dive into the future of education with “ What Will School Look Like in the Next 100 Years? ” This article provides a thought-provoking look at how educational environments, methodologies, and technologies might evolve, reflecting the ongoing transformations in how we learn and teach.

Then, explore a pressing concern in contemporary youth culture with “ Why It Matters That Teens Are Reading Less .” As you ponder the future of English, this article sheds light on current trends in reading habits among teenagers, discussing the potential implications for literacy, critical thinking, and cultural engagement.

These articles complement linguistic evolution themes by offering a broader perspective on education and cultural trends. These readings aim to leave you better informed and more reflective about the interconnected nature of language, learning, and cultural evolution.

Frequently Asked Questions

How will the teaching of english change in the next century.

You’ll likely see a shift towards digital literacy development and language immersion techniques. Technology will play a key role, and learning could be more interactive, personalized, and globally influenced than ever before.

What Steps Can Individuals Take to Adapt to the Future Changes in English?

To adapt to future changes in English, you’ll need to embrace Language Apps Evolution and Digital English Adaptation. Staying current with tech tools and open-minded about language evolution is key to keeping up.

How Will These Changes in the English Language Affect Its Literature?

These changes’ll shape literature’s linguistic evolution, altering future language aesthetics. You’ll see new literary styles and genres emerge, influenced by the evolving language. It might be challenging but also exciting to witness such transformation.

How Will the Evolution of English Impact the Job Market, Particularly in Fields Like Translation or Language Teaching?

In a century, Language Technology Innovations and English Dialect Diversification will redefine jobs in translation and teaching. You’ll need to adapt to new dialects and tech advancements to stay relevant in your field.

What Other Languages Are Predicted to Undergo Significant Changes in the Next Century?

You’ll find languages like Mandarin, Spanish, and Arabic evolving under language technology influence. Cultural impacts will also shape these languages significantly in the next century with globalization and cultural exchanges playing key roles.

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• Published: 26 February 2024

English language hegemony: retrospect and prospect

• Jie Zeng   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-0983-9075 1 , 2 &
• Jianbu Yang 3  

Humanities and Social Sciences Communications volume  11 , Article number:  317 ( 2024 ) Cite this article

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This paper explores the ascent of English as a global lingua franca within the context of linguistic hegemony, following Phillipson’s 1992 framework. It scrutinizes English’s role in the rapidly globalizing world, emphasizing its dominance across economic, governance, and scientific sectors and its impact on non-native English-speaking countries. Utilizing a sociolinguistic approach, combined with historical and interdisciplinary analysis, the study evaluates the influence of English hegemony in cultural, educational, and technological domains, with a focus on post-colonial and expanding circle nations. Additionally, the paper provides critical insights for developing language policies in these areas, considering the intricate role of English in the global linguistic landscape. It concludes by considering the prospects of English language hegemony.

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Introduction.

The dominance of English in the 21st century has exerted a profound influence on the global economic landscape, political configurations, and cultural systems of nations worldwide. The global promulgation of English, however, did not materialize abruptly; it is the culmination of a protracted process of development and evolution (Gordin, 2015 ). Tracing back to around the 5th century, invasions by the Saxons, Angles, and Jutes onto the British Isles initiated the linguistic amalgamation of Anglo-Saxon and Celtic tongues, giving rise to what is known as Old English. The advent of Standard English in the Elizabethan era of the 16th century owes much to the Norman Conquest’s introduction of Norman French influences. The 17th century witnessed the surge of the Industrial Revolution, which augmented Britain’s economic and military prowess, ushering in its era as a global hegemon and the “Empire on which the sun never sets” (Allen, 2017 ). Concurrent with its imperial expansion into Africa and Asia, Britain disseminated the English language across these continents. Subsequently, in the aftermath of World War II, the United States emerged with substantial economic growth and a concentration of capital and wealth. The U.S.‘s rapidly ascending political, military, economic, and technological clout facilitated the widespread adoption of English, further entrenched by its pervasiveness in media, film, television, and advertising. Presently, with over 1.2 billion English speakers globally (Rao, 2019 ), the reach and ubiquity of the English language are evident.

Phillipson’s theory of “Linguistic Imperialism” (1992) provides a critical examination of language rights, policies, the endangerment of languages, and linguistic hegemony, with a specific focus on English’s role as an international lingua franca . This theory enhances our understanding of modern English hegemony. In today’s globalized context, English is not only an essential tool for international discourse but also the premier foreign language in numerous countries, with its symbolic stature and status as the international lingua franca being incontrovertible. The hegemony of English has significantly shaped the language policies and political economies of many nations. Several countries in Asia and Africa, having experienced British and American colonial dominion, encountered the dual-edged sword of English hegemony—both facilitating and eroding indigenous languages, leaving an indelible imprint on their societies, economies, and cultures. Thus, acknowledging the considerable impact of English on the linguistic policies and political economies of post-colonial nations, we must also critically assess the positive dissemination of English culture alongside a reflection on the global ramifications of English linguistic hegemony.

In the current epoch of the fourth industrial revolution, which is distinguished by the convergence of digital, biological, and physical advancements, it seems likely that the dominance of the English language will not only endure but even extend its reach. English, being the primary element of worldwide communication and the predominant language used on the internet, is expected to continue being the favored means for international discussions, advancements in technology, and the sharing of information. The prominence of Silicon Valley and the prevailing influence of American and British institutions in the fields of science and technology serve to solidify the position of the English language as a leading force in the realm of innovation. Furthermore, it is anticipated that English, with its extensive datasets and linguistic resources, will become increasingly dominant as the primary language for programming and engaging with technology, as artificial intelligence and machine learning systems progress. Therefore, it is anticipated that the dominance of the English language in this emerging period would enable and maybe expedite international partnerships, therefore expanding the frontiers of invention and fostering unparalleled global interconnectedness.

The research methodology for this study on English Language Hegemony combines a sociolinguistic approach with historical and interdisciplinary analysis. Using Phillipson’s ( 1992 ) framework, we examine English’s historical development and current status as a global lingua franca . Our approach includes a thorough historical literature review and qualitative methods such as textual analysis and case studies, focusing on English’s influence in sectors like the economy, governance, science, and education, particularly in post-colonial and expanding circle nations. The integration of insights from linguistics, history, sociology, and education allows for a comprehensive exploration of English hegemony’s cultural, educational, and technological effects, while also addressing future language policies and the ongoing evolution of English dominance.

Related studies

The hegemony of the English language has developed into a core research topic in the field of sociolinguistics since the end of the 20th century. Scholars such as Phillipson (Phillipson, 1997 , 2004 , 2008 , 2009 , 2018 ), Tsuda ( 2008 ), Ives ( 2009 ), Macedo et al. ( 2015 ), Choi ( 2010 ), and Borden ( 2014 ) have made significant contributions to the construction and development of the theoretical framework of English hegemony/linguistic imperialism studies. This research field involves the historical evolution of English in the context of globalization, its political, economic, and cultural impacts, and its effects on language diversity. It particularly focuses on issues such as linguistic power, linguistic identity, and linguistic justice, all of which constitute key areas in the struggle for ideologies and power.

The burgeoning interest in post-colonialism and new imperialism within Western social sciences since the 1980s has cast the English language into the spotlight. It was Robert Phillipson and Tove Skutnabb-Kangas who, from an ideological stance, first articulated the notion of language hierarchies. In his pivotal 1992 work “ Linguistic Imperialism ”, Phillipson, a prominent linguist, addressed critical issues surrounding language rights, policies, endangerment, and hegemony, specifically in the context of English as a lingua franca . Scholars like Pennycook ( 2021 ), Canagarajah ( 1999 ), and Graddol ( 2006 ) have since contributed to the discourse, spotlighting the challenges of English dominance in third-world countries. Canagarajah, particularly, underscored the profound dilemma post-colonial societies face in reconciling Western culture and values with indigenous ones, a challenge compounded by the deep-rooted presence of English within their cultural and ideological frameworks (Canagarajah, 1999 ). The linguistic influence of colonial powers has not only bolstered the status of their languages but also inflicted detrimental effects across various spheres including economics, politics, society, culture, and education (Ricento, 2015 ).

Current research on English language hegemony is multi-dimensional, examining its ascent to the primary medium of global communication and the ensuing cultural and educational ramifications. Studies indicate that English’s privileged status bolsters the cultural exports of English-speaking nations and may engender linguistic disparities within non-native English-speaking countries, influencing individual socio-economic prospects and societal attitudes toward language and cultural preservation (Haidar, 2019 ).

Scholars have conducted in-depth investigations into English dominance from various perspectives. The critical inquiry has spotlighted the adverse effects of English dominance on educational policy, language planning, and the viability of minoritized language groups, advocating for initiatives that foster linguistic diversity and parity (Davis & Phyak, 2017 ). Conversely, pragmatic research investigates strategies to uphold linguistic diversity alongside the widespread use of English, such as through bilingual or multilingual educational models, or by emphasizing native languages in public domains and media (Flores & Rosa, 2015 ; Phillipson, 2004 ). These analyses suggest that, while English’s global influence is likely to persist, maintaining vibrant language practices and policies remains both viable and imperative at local and regional levels.

Ongoing investigations strive to strike a balance between leveraging the economic and communicative advantages of English as a lingua franca and safeguarding indigenous linguistic heritages (Dewey, 2007 ; Grant, 2012 ). This has prompted interdisciplinary research that intersects sociology, education, linguistics, and policy studies, aiming to decipher how languages transform under the pressures of globalization and to craft apt strategies for intercultural communication and language pedagogy (Jackson, 2019 ; Modiano, 2020 ). Concurrently, national and local governments, educational bodies, and international entities are engaged in finding means to cherish and nurture linguistic diversity, whilst also considering the role of English as a facilitative tool rather than an instrument of cultural or economic imposition.

Contemporary academic discussions around the dominance of the English language have adopted a comprehensive perspective, examining this problem from several angles such as globalization, educational policies, and cultural impact. One notable tendency seen in scholarly literature is the comprehensive analysis of the prevailing dominance of the English language and its consequential effects on the preservation and promotion of linguistic variety. The phenomenon of ‘linguistic imperialism’ in the new globalization era has been examined by various studies (e.g., Lai, 2021 ; Mackenzie, 2022 ; Smith & Kim, 2015 ) and the researchers have provided critical analysis on the marginalization of indigenous languages and cultures resulting from the widespread use of English in academic and professional domains. These scholarly works contend that the dominance of the English language reinforces a monolingual mindset in worldwide communication, often disregarding the importance of multilingualism and diversity.

Scholars have extensively investigated the techniques of resistance and adaptation used by non-English-speaking populations in reaction to hegemonic forces. In the contemporary period characterized by the fourth industrial revolution, there has been a notable emergence of scholarly investigations that explore the convergence of technology and language. Canagarajah ( 2020 ) conducted a study examining how digital platforms provide opportunities for individuals to engage in ‘translingual practises,’ which include the blending of English with other languages. This phenomenon serves as a means of contesting the dominant position of the English language. Furthermore, there has been a recent emphasis in empirical research on how educational policies worldwide are responding to this dominant influence. One common approach is the promotion of bilingual education and the cultivation of English language skills alongside native languages, intending to prepare students for the demands of a globalized labor market (Wang & Zheng, 2021 ).

The dominance of the English language and its cultural impacts have become a focal point of interest in academic circles. This phenomenon has elicited a scholarly response that oscillates between critical analysis and pragmatic acceptance of English hegemony. A growing body of research has focused on investigating the influence of English as a worldwide lingua franca on cultural identities and practices. Scholars such as Melchers et al. ( 2019 ), Kirkpatrick ( 2023 ), and Smith and Nelson ( 2019 ) have directed their attention towards the notion of ‘World Englishes’, examining how English has been modified in many sociocultural settings, leading to the emergence of novel English variations and subsequently, novel manifestations of cultural expression. This corpus of literature highlights an increasing acknowledgement of the dynamic and adaptable characteristics of language, suggesting that the dominance of the English language does not just exert a one-way influence on culture, but rather involves a mutual process of cultural interchange and alteration.

In brief, the existing body of literature about the English language hegemony is undergoing continuous development. Recent research encompasses a wide variety of viewpoints, spanning from a critical examination of English’s prevailing position to an investigation of the flexible and oppositional approaches used in multilingual communication within the context of the digital era. There is a growing inclination to acknowledge the intricate nature of language hegemony, as it intersects with cultural identity, education, and the relentless progression of technology.

The formation and development of English language hegemony

The ascendancy of English as a global lingua franca is a phenomenon intricately woven into the fabric of British colonial history. Its roots can be traced to the 16th century when British explorations and subsequent colonization laid the groundwork for the nation’s maritime dominance (Kennedy, 2017 ). These early expeditions, exemplified by the conquest of Newfoundland, marked the beginning of Britain’s imperial expansion. Over time, this expansion led to the establishment of a vast colonial empire where the sun famously never set, and with it, the dissemination of the English language.

The dissemination of the English language was not only coincidental but rather a purposeful tactic used to solidify British hegemony. The use of English language was employed as a strategy to centralize authority within colonial areas, resulting in the subordination of indigenous people and fostering a perception of inadequacy towards their languages and traditions. The enduring consequence was the establishment of English as the official language in several former colonies, a legacy that endures in contemporary times.

The post-World War II era saw a collapse in British colonial status, which in turn led to the rise of the United States as a prominent economic and political powerhouse (Kramer, 2016 ). As British power declined, the United States took on the responsibility of advancing the English language, establishing a strong connection between its spread and the dissemination of its own cultural, political, and economic principles. Employing educational endeavors and cultural diplomacy, the United States enhanced the prominence of the English language on a worldwide scale, assuring its association with contemporary progress and influence.

Thus, while the United Kingdom laid the early foundations of what would become linguistic imperialism, it was the United States that carried the torch into the latter half of the 20th century and beyond, ensuring that English maintained its hegemonic status. The evolution of English as a tool of imperialism is a testament to the geopolitical shifts of the past centuries, with the United States playing a crucial role in the language’s continued global prevalence (Crystal, 2009 ).

We conducted a literature review spanning from 1992 to the present, using Google Scholar and Web of Science with the keywords “English language hegemony” and “English linguistic imperialism” on January 9, 2024. This search yielded approximately 1325 records, from which we selected around 120 key papers specifically relevant to the formation and evolution of English Language Hegemony. Table 1 presents a comprehensive timeline of key events in the rise of English hegemony, tracing its journey from the early British colonial period to its current global prominence under the United States’ influence. This table also highlights various strategic efforts to promote English and the political shifts that have contributed to its widespread adoption.

The influence of English hegemony

The pervasive role of English as the “world language” in scientific, economic, academic, and political discourse is now widely acknowledged amidst intensifying globalization (Genç & Bada, 2010 ; Pennycook, 2017 ). The entrenchment of English hegemony has complex ramifications for the linguistic ecosystems of non-Anglophone nations, particularly those with a history of colonization. Language serves not only as a communicative tool but as a hallmark of identity, and the rise of English has deeply influenced the linguistic landscapes of countries around the globe. Phillipson ( 2018 ) introduces this dynamic, delineating a divide between core English-speaking countries—such as the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, and Australia—and peripheral English-speaking nations, where English is official or widely spoken, such as India, the Philippines, and China.

The acquisition of English in these peripheral countries often transcends mere language learning; it becomes a conduit for social and cultural ideologies emanating from the Anglophone core (Canagarajah, 2007 ). This influence fosters a power imbalance where local languages may be sidelined or diminished, sometimes facing the threat of obsolescence. The post-colonial countries exemplify this trend, where English has remained a dominant force post-independence, impacting the local vernacular and cultural norms (Buschfeld & Kautzsch, 2017 ). Language not only expresses but also preserves culture. Hence, the erosion of linguistic diversity due to English imperialism risks the extinction of rich cultural heritages. Colonial policies that mandated English learning were not just pedagogical but also tools of ideological and cultural subjugation.

In the current era of globalization, the omnipresence of English continues to exert its influence on former colonial states and beyond. Phillipson ( 2017 ) highlighted the tendency of African university graduates to adopt Western cultural perspectives through their English proficiency, often becoming the most Westernized segment in their societies. This reflects a broader trend where cultural and ideological affiliations with English-speaking nations are reinforced through language.

While the drawbacks of English dominance are clear, its role in globalization cannot be entirely dismissed as negative. For many non-native speakers, English is a lingua franca facilitating communication across diverse linguistic backgrounds, catalyzing scientific advancement, and enabling access to global commerce. It’s a vehicle for cultural exchange and economic opportunity. The proliferation of English has allowed previously colonized and other non-Anglophone countries to partake in international discourse and trade.

The significance of English’s dominance in the fields of science and technology cannot be exaggerated. English is widely used as the predominant language in several academic and scientific institutes worldwide. Xu ( 2010 ) points out that the distribution and extension of information are profoundly influenced by the strategic relevance of the English language. The prominence of Anglophone nations in the realms of science and technology has contributed to the elevation of English’s position within these domains, facilitating the dissemination of cutting-edge information to less developed countries.

Furthermore, English serves as a crucial intermediary, enabling emerging economies to assimilate and innovate in science and technology. It is omnipresent in various media, facilitating a global understanding that transcends national borders. Consequently, proficiency in English equips non-Anglophone countries with the tools to engage with, and potentially transform, their own social and technological landscapes.

A prospect of English language hegemony

The current worldwide dominance of the English language in discourse is anticipated to encounter substantial upheavals and difficulties shortly. The international language hierarchy may be significantly impacted by the emergence of economies in light of the dynamic global political and economic environment (Warschauer, 2000 ). The increasing economic power of China, coupled with its growing worldwide impact, has the potential to enhance the prominence of Mandarin, especially in Asia and elsewhere where Chinese investment is substantial. Likewise, languages such as Spanish, Arabic, and French have the potential to attain importance as a result of enhanced economic partnerships, political connections, or cultural exchanges. The anticipated multipolar linguistic shift has the potential to transform the previously dominant English-centric paradigm, leading to a global movement towards genuine multilingualism and diversity.

The potential use of technological breakthroughs, namely in the domains of artificial intelligence and machine translation, can diminish the dependence on English as a universally accepted means of facilitating communication across other languages (Crossley, 2018 ). The increasing prevalence of real-time translation software has facilitated the ability of non-native English speakers to participate in worldwide discourse using their original languages while understanding others. If this technology attains a satisfactory level of precision and dependability, it has the potential to reduce the urgency for acquiring English language skills, hence reducing the perceived need for it.

On the other hand, these technical advancements might unintentionally contribute to linguistic hegemony, given that the tech sector is mostly led by English-speaking organizations. This could result in the promotion of goods and services that further strengthen the dominance of the English language on a worldwide scale. Notwithstanding these issues, globalization has the potential to solidify the position of English as the dominant language for communication, especially in domains such as academia, international business, and digital platforms (Zeng et al., 2023 ). The enduring need for English as a worldwide language is sustained by its prevalence in academic publications, business communication, and online content development.

Nevertheless, the increasing recognition and value placed on cultural variety may catalyze endeavors aimed at fostering and safeguarding indigenous languages and traditions. There is a growing trend in national language strategies to prioritize the preservation of linguistic variety and mitigate the excessive dominance of any one language (Lo Bianco, 2010 ). Educational institutions may endorse bilingual or multilingual instructional approaches, which aim to strengthen students’ ties to their local languages while simultaneously introducing them to English or other globally recognized languages (Lasagabaster, 2015 ). The implementation of such policies has the potential to both protect cultural assets and prepare individuals for active participation in global affairs.

In the foreseeable future, we may see a shift towards a more diverse and equitable global linguistic environment, where English will be integrated into a polycentric language system rather than maintaining its position as the only global vernacular. Furthermore, the future impact of the English language will probably fluctuate following the political and economic circumstances of the countries where English is mostly spoken. The potential decrease in the soft power or worldwide prestige of the United States or the United Kingdom may have an indirect impact on the global prominence of the English language. On the other hand, the worldwide increase in English education, particularly in areas where it is associated with socio-economic progress, has the potential to sustain its global importance.

The future course of English dominance will be influenced by a variety of complex global issues, including economic, technical, political, educational, and cultural elements. The resuscitation of minority and regional languages via localization and cultural movements has the potential to rejuvenate these languages (Pennycook, 2017 ). However, it is anticipated that English will continue to maintain its crucial function as a means of facilitating worldwide communication. However, with the increasing number of voices from across the world, the dominance of the English language may adopt a more accommodating and inclusive form, becoming part of a multilingual global conversation rather than maintaining its position as the only means of international communication. Table 2 provides a thorough description of the future trajectory of English linguistic hegemony.

Implications for language policy and planning in non-English speaking countries

The widespread diffusion of the English language has had a detrimental impact on linguistic variety at a worldwide level, resulting in the marginalisation and possible eradication of indigenous languages in regions where English is used as a secondary or non-native language. The impact of English influence is seen in the modified linguistic and cultural environments of several countries where English is not the primary language (Piekkari et al., 2015 ). Therefore, these nations need to take into account their distinct linguistic and cultural legacies while formulating and executing language-related strategies. These policies need to facilitate the acknowledgement and promotion of indigenous languages at an international level.

It is of utmost importance for states to uphold the ideal of linguistic equality and to resist any kind of linguistic hegemony, both domestically and on the global stage. It is imperative to undertake a collective effort aimed at fostering an atmosphere that values language parity and resolutely safeguards the linguistic and cultural diversity of every ethnic community.

National foreign language policies should prioritize the cultivation of competency in both widely spoken languages and less often taught languages. English, while acknowledged as a prominent international language in countries such as China, Japan, South Korea, and many European nations, is not the exclusive focal point within elementary and secondary school curricula (Ji et al., 2004 ). There exists a significant need for educational resources that may enhance the learning of less often spoken languages such as Arabic, Russian, French, and others. Consequently, there is a need to strengthen these educational resources (Piekkari et al., 2015 ).

When developing current language policy, it is crucial for nations where English is not the primary language to thoroughly assess the impact of foreign languages on their local tongues and the dynamics that exist between them. This evaluation is necessary to prevent a revival of English dominance. The widespread prevalence of the English language has undeniably impacted the teaching of other languages in these nations, with instructional materials and pronunciation mostly drawing from British and American origins. As a result, throughout the process of obtaining English language proficiency, students inevitably encounter Anglophone cultures, which might unintentionally foster a preference for Western civilization while neglecting their own indigenous cultures.

To tackle this issue, instructors of the English language in environments where English is not the primary language have the opportunity to include aspects of indigenous culture in their curriculum decisions. This approach allows students to effectively communicate their cultural history via the medium of English. Educators have the role of imparting well-rounded ideas and ideals.

The issue of conforming to either British or American pronunciation rules frequently gives rise to debate (Barrett et al., 2022 ). It is important to highlight that the primary goal of developing English language competence is to improve global communication effectiveness. When considering the historical progression of English dominance, several individuals argue that the rise of nations where English is not the primary language might provide valuable perspectives for these countries and their citizens, perhaps enhancing their ability to compete and their overall national strength.

The growing fascination among English-speaking nations that belong to the ‘inner circle’ with non-English-speaking cultures has increased the acquisition of languages such as Chinese and the exploration of professional opportunities in areas like China. To mitigate misinterpretations and effectively communicate non-English-speaking customs, instructors from other countries must possess a proficient command of the language spoken in the host country.

The acknowledgement of the intrinsic uniqueness of different languages and cultures requires careful interpretation to prevent misunderstandings. In the context of presenting non-English-speaking languages and cultures to a global audience, educators need to use suitable resources and exhibit a profound comprehension of the traditional civilizations they are portraying (Heininen, 2021 ). The strategic identification and targeting of receptive areas and nations play a pivotal role in the effective promotion of non-English-speaking cultures on a worldwide scale.

Promoting a common linguistic platform is a vital undertaking for countries where English is not the primary language. This program has the potential to meet the linguistic needs of many countries, while also safeguarding and promoting the cultural legacies of cultures where English is not the primary language. This methodology has the potential to augment cross-cultural understanding and improve efficient communication.

The increasing fascination with other cultures among those living in the core English-speaking countries has resulted in a growing demand for bilingual education and cultural exchange initiatives. The increasing desire of people from many nations to participate in markets such as China necessitates the presence of multilingual specialists who can effectively navigate the complexities of varied language and cultural contexts. These individuals who possess fluency in two languages not only assist in the facilitation of commercial exchanges but also contribute to a more profound degree of cultural absorption and comprehension. The individuals’ high level of expertise in both English and the target language allows them to accurately perceive subtle cultural nuances. This ensures that international interactions maintain both linguistic accuracy and cultural authenticity. The ability to navigate and comprehend several cultures is becoming more advantageous in professional settings that operate on a global scale since it is sometimes just as important to comprehend local customs and practices as it is to grasp financial statements.

Simultaneously, there exists a collective endeavor within nations where English is not the primary language to enhance the level of English language ability among their citizens. This strategic manoeuvre is not only focused on bolstering global competitiveness but also on assuring the proper dissemination of their cultural narratives and values on the international platform. Language learning programs are being enhanced by the inclusion of cultural competence training, which equips learners with the skills to effectively comprehend and convey complex concepts across diverse cultural contexts. Educational investments of this kind play a crucial role in cultivating a group of individuals with a global perspective, possessing both language proficiency and cultural sensitivity. These individuals are capable of not only preserving their cultural heritage but also successfully interacting with international society. The simultaneous emphasis on linguistic competence and cultural knowledge highlights the complex interplay between preserving cultural legacy and embracing global interconnectivity. This equilibrium will significantly influence the dynamics of cultural interchange throughout the period of the fourth industrial revolution.

The profound impact of English hegemony on non-English-speaking regions is twofold: while it has been a catalyst for growth and development, it has simultaneously posed threats to indigenous languages and cultures, potentially driving them to the periphery or extinction. This dominance also results in a biased international academic community where non-English-speaking researchers may face discrimination. However, the advent of multilingual policies has begun to erode the monolithic nature of English hegemony. The emergence of distinct English varieties—such as Japanese English, Indian English, and other localized iterations—epitomizes the language’s adaptability to diverse civilizational contexts.

In conclusion, the implementation of language policy in countries where English is not the primary language requires a deep understanding of the complex implications of English dominance. The prevailing worldwide influence of the English language, while facilitating global communication, poses a potential threat to the preservation and recognition of indigenous languages and cultures. Therefore, it is important to carefully navigate the strategic formulation of these policies, ensuring that they effectively promote the progress and global integration of national languages while preserving their distinct cultural identities, which are integral to their inherent worth.

To achieve this objective, it is essential to implement the promotion of national languages at the global level while considering and incorporating the prevailing linguistic and cultural frameworks in the targeted areas. The use of customized approaches that are tailored to the particular sociolinguistic contexts of the intended recipients is necessary, as opposed to relying on generic procedures. Hence, language policy needs to be firmly rooted in culturally sensitive methodologies that prioritize the safeguarding of linguistic variety, while simultaneously recognizing the pervasive existence and practicality of English as a global means of communication.

Furthermore, these policies must include the development and distribution of information in several languages, the promotion of translation and interpretation services, and the nurturing of intercultural communication skills. It is essential to promote educational systems that prioritize the significance of acquiring proficiency in several languages. This approach will effectively equip forthcoming generations with the necessary skills to effectively navigate and actively participate in an ever more linked global society. To effectively expand the influence of national languages and enhance the diversity of global linguistics, language policymakers must engage in collaborative efforts with educators, linguists, and cultural specialists, prioritizing the development of language policies that promote linguistic plurality and intercultural comprehension.

It is imperative that these policies effectively acknowledge and promote the vast array of global languages, fostering an environment that encourages active participation and genuine appreciation within the worldwide community. This recognition of linguistic variety serves as a gateway to accessing a multitude of information and views, enriching the collective understanding. Employing these collective efforts, it is conceivable to envisage a global scenario wherein English dominance coexists harmoniously with, and indeed fosters, a diverse and thriving tapestry of languages and cultures.

To effectively harness English while preserving linguistic diversity in the context of globalization, countries like China, France, Japan, and Brazil can adopt tailored strategies. China could integrate English into its education system to foster bilingualism, while France might boost its cultural exchange programs with English-speaking nations for improved language skills and cultural insights. Japan could benefit from language policy reforms enhancing English education, balancing it with Japanese cultural preservation. Brazil, with its linguistic richness, might develop media in both Portuguese and English to maintain language balance. These countries can also encourage research and publications in both English and native languages for global outreach and local relevance. Community language programs, particularly vital in linguistically diverse nations like Brazil, can aid in preserving indigenous languages. Additionally, advocating for multilingualism in international platforms can help these countries navigate the complexities of English’s global dominance.

In this paper, we examined Phillipson’s concept of English linguistic imperialism, as well as the dynamic development of the theory and practices of English language hegemony, through a sociolinguistic perspective. It emphasizes the interconnection between the growth of English dominance and the expansion of the British Empire and the United States. It examines the role of the British imperial outreach in embedding English across Asia and Africa, where it served as a tool for colonial rule. The paper then transitions to discussing how the United States, with its significant political and economic influence, further propelled English into the status of a global lingua franca . The focus shifts to the paradoxical effects of English dominance, especially its role in advancing science, technology, and economics in non-English-speaking regions. Additionally, the paper considers the unifying role of English in linguistically diverse countries, while acknowledging that this serves as a temporary solution in the face of complex linguistic dynamics.

This inquiry into English hegemony’s duality concludes that, although English serves as a vehicle for advancement, it also threatens the survival of local languages and cultures, thus embodying a dualistic nature. For non-English-speaking countries to leverage English beneficially, they must navigate this dichotomy with strategic cultural and linguistic preservation efforts. Examples include multilingual policies in the Philippines, Malaysia, and China, which aim to bolster indigenous languages while also mitigating English dependence in education and other sectors. A shift away from an overemphasis on British and American pronunciation norms—often misperceived as the gold standard—is advisable, reinforcing the primary objective of language acquisition: effective communication.

The fundamental shortcoming of the research is its inadequate analysis of the complexities behind the dominance of current English, highlighting the need for a more comprehensive academic investigation. The drawback of this research stems from its narrow emphasis on multilingual policies, which, while important, do not fully cover the many complexities imposed by globalization and cultural interactions. This approach fails to acknowledge the unique obstacles and circumstances faced by various nations and areas when it comes to adjusting to the prevalence of English. To bridge these knowledge gaps, it is recommended that future research endeavors explore the intricate relationship between globalization and linguistic dynamics. Additionally, it is imperative to investigate the multifaceted function of the English language in international arenas such as diplomacy and commerce. Furthermore, a comprehensive assessment of the repercussions of English on local cultures and languages is needed. The proposed extended inquiry would provide a more thorough comprehension of the intricacies surrounding English hegemony, considering many worldwide viewpoints and ramifications. Additionally, it would offer valuable insights to guide more knowledgeable language policy and educational approaches.

As globalization advances, the role of English is expected to evolve due to technological progress and geopolitical changes. The digital age and widespread internet access have made English central to global communication and information exchange. The impending Fourth Industrial Revolution, with developments in AI and machine learning, could further amplify English’s importance in global economic, scientific, and technological spheres (Skilton & Hovsepian, 2018 ). However, the rise of non-Western powers, especially China, may lead to a more diverse linguistic landscape. Additionally, the significance of regional economic groups like RCEP and CPTPP, alongside a focus on preserving indigenous cultures, could encourage the use of local languages along with English (Pomfret, 2021 ). While English is expected to maintain its global dominance, it faces increasing challenges from emerging powers and the push for linguistic diversity due to cultural and regional dynamics.

Recent scholarship has provided new insights into the complexities of English hegemony in the modern era, revealing its multifaceted impacts on global communication, cultural identity, and power structures. Scholars like Phillipson ( 2022 ) highlight the challenges to linguistic diversity posed by English’s pervasive influence as a global communication tool. Meanwhile, critiques of dual language bilingual education, such as those by Freire et al. ( 2022 ), expose how neoliberal ideologies and ‘white streaming’ reinforce English dominance, often to the detriment of other languages. Additionally, O’Regan’s ( 2021 ) work delves into how global English is intertwined with capitalist structures, shaping global power dynamics. These insights collectively underscore the cultural, economic, and educational consequences of English’s global dominance and the challenges it poses for maintaining linguistic diversity.

Furthermore, the nuances of English hegemony reflect a dynamic interplay between globalization, cultural identity, and power. English has evolved from merely a language to a symbol of global connectivity, essential for economic and educational opportunities. Its role in international business, technology, and academia marks it as a crucial gateway for global participation. However, this dominance also leads to the marginalization of local languages and cultures, raising concerns about linguistic imperialism and cultural homogenization. The emergence of “World Englishes” challenges the traditional native-speaker model, advocating for the legitimacy of diverse English varieties (Kirkpatrick, 2023 ; Melchers et al., 2019 ; Schneider, 2018 ). This shift represents a broader perspective on English as a tool for cross-cultural communication, rather than a symbol of cultural superiority. Consequently, the hegemony of English is not just about the language itself but also its intersection with identity, power, and access in an increasingly globalised world.

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Acknowledgements

The authors wish to express their sincere gratitude to the Humanities and Social Sciences Youth Foundation of the Ministry of Education of China as this paper was supported by it under the project “A dialectical study of English linguistic imperialism in the Philippines from the perspective of the Belt and Road Initiative”, Grant Number: 18YJC740006.

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Zeng, J., Yang, J. English language hegemony: retrospect and prospect. Humanit Soc Sci Commun 11 , 317 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-024-02821-z

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What will English be like 100 years from now?

Language constantly varies and evolves to fit the needs of its community—think about how different Shakespeare’s English sounds compared to English today!

It's clear how much English has changed over time … but what will English be like a century from now? There's no way to know for certain what pronunciations, words, and grammar 22nd-century English speakers will be using, but we may be able to make a few predictions based on today’s trends and behaviors. 👀

Here are 5 changes we might see in English in 100 years!

🔮 Prediction 1: To whom it may concern: Whom is out the door!

Whom dates back to a time when English had noun cases —nouns changed form depending on where they occurred in a sentence. We still do this in English with pronouns , for example—we use he and she differently from him and her, but we stopped doing this with most nouns centuries ago. Whom was one of the (many!) versions of who , but people have been replacing whom with who for at least 700 years.

With more and more people ditching whom for its multitasking cousin who, we predict whom will completely disappear in the 2100s—going the way of ol' hwone (the accusative form of who in Old English).

🔮 Prediction 2: You might need a drink for this one

You can think of English verbs having 3 basic forms: present ( go ), past simple ( went ), and past participle ( gone ). But verb conjugations don't always stay the same over time, and one verb that is in the middle of a big change is drink : I drink today, yesterday I drank , and everyday this with I have …? Drink? Drank? Drunk?

Historically, that third form was drunk , and there was no hesitation or question about it. But the past participle drunk is used less today than in previous decades, and instead, people are using the regular past tense form drank : Sentences like No, I've never drank at that bar before might sound completely normal to you!

This sort of change is pretty typical for English verbs—the past tense of bake used to be boke , the past tense of dive used to be dived ( dove is currently taking its place!)—and we predict that have drunk won't make it another century.

🔮 Prediction 3: Movin' ahead

The verb ending -ing (as in, I am talk ing on the phone while walk ing to the store) has had quite the evolution: It started as the Old English ending -ende , it acquired a -g because it was so similar to a totally different ending -ing , and its pronunciation has been similarly mixed up. For a long time, it was pronounced with both an "n" and a "g," then with a combined "ng" made in the back of the throat, and now that "g" sound may be on its way out again. You're readin' that right!

Since the -ng sound is being used less, we expect it to be goin’ completely out of style in the 22nd century.

🔮 Prediction 4: Dialects diversify

The difference between what counts as a dialect versus a language is more about prestige, politics, and power than linguistics—a language is really a group of dialects that are mostly understandable to the speakers. And once 2 dialects become so different that speakers of one can no longer understand speakers of the other, we might start thinking of them as separate languages!

In the next century, we predict we'll see even more exciting changes among English dialects. New ones are evolving , especially in places where English comes into contact with other languages, and dialects that have existed for centuries might grow increasingly more distinct. If you're already watching The Great British Bake Off with subtitles, then you won't be surprised when "British" and "USian" become recognized as their own languages in a hundred years!

🔮 Prediction 5: #RIP

That criss-cross number sign # has been a button on telephones for decades, and it was born with the name pound sign . But social media has ushered in a new era for this little guy, renaming him the hashtag . Its ubiquitous use on social media continues with no end in sight, even if its heyday of being spoken aloud is behind us, and it's doing far more on TikTok videos than on our phones. (What’s it even there for, anyway? Occasional interactions with automated customer service?) We predict that next century’s English speakers will stick with hashtag as the name for the tic-tac-toe symbol. #languagepredictions

The English of the future 🤖

While it’s impossible to really know what English (or any language!) will be like in the 2100s, the kinds of language variation that we see today give us a glimpse of what changes may be just around the corner. After all, change is part of life… and language!

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Dear duolingo: how can i learn to think in a new language, what will german be like 100 years from now.

Status of English as the Global Language Essay

Some people believe that English as a language faces a bleak future since there are numerous local languages that seem to dominate the cultures of some countries. Also, they contend that some nations are quick to file laws that prevent the use of English in public as a way of conserving their cultures since they fear its erosion.

However, I tend to differ with that school of thought and cite the following reasons as to why the future of English remains assured globally: the large numbers of English speakers and learners, the simplicity and flexibility nature of English, intrusion a in local cultures, and the business necessity (Nancy, 2011).

Over 380 million people currently speak English as a first language, over 550 million use it as their second language, and approximately a billion people are learning it worldwide. From this analysis, the total population that can use English is over 1.5 billion as compared to 1.2 billion in China. Since the majority group uses English, a high number of populace tends to use it as a way of obtaining benefits from 1.5 billion (Nancy, 2011).

In non-English speaking nations, several legislators have made laws that protest against the continuous invasion of English in their countries, but their actions have not resulted to the control in the use of English since the pace at which people speak the language has intensified. The high numbers of learners and speakers prove the continuous dominance of English at present and in the future. Consequently, this continuous action will strengthen the use of English as a key language in the entire globe.

Additionally, English status in the world tends to be brighter, given that it is simple and flexible in its rules. The language has clear grammatical rules and is extremely simple to use. The simplicity is evident in the rules that govern the use of nouns, verbs, pronouns, prepositions, adverbs amongst others.

For example, it has borrowed words from different cultures and languages hence giving it an edge over other languages in adaptability in the global aspect (Zhunio, 2010). As a result, when one learns English, he/she becomes diverse in many cultures, thus keeping himself/herself updated with global events and developments (Oshima & Hogue, 2011).

Moreover, there is a huge immersion of the English culture in the life of many nations. For instance, a country like Poland has even filed a law prohibiting the use of English in some occasions to prevent wiping out of the local culture, but this move has been seen as a waste of time since over 75% of the online materials are written in English.

Attempts by governments to ban the use of English limit access to knowledge, as most people are enthusiastic about acquiring pieces of information that are in English. Some people also prefer speaking English to their native language.

Further, English has remained essential in the business sector, and with the expansion of markets beyond borders of countries, companies have to use English to reach out to many customers and potential employees.

Even though China urges her companies to use Chinese in conducting businesses to secure its language, the truth is that there are high numbers of consumers that speak and learn English in the whole world. Therefore, most of these companies need English to satisfy the needs of the customers and gain a competitive advantage over their competitors (Nancy, 2011).

Conclusively, English proves to be the sole language that the whole world will continue to use in their daily activities. Therefore, there is full assurance on the future status of English in this globe.

Nancy, P. (2011). The future status of English as the global language is assured? . hatena.ne.jp . Web.

Oshima, A., & Hogue, A. (2011). Writing academic English (4. ed.). White Plains, NY: Pearson Longman.

Zhunio, N. (2010). The A Team: The future status of English as the global language is assured. The A Team . Web.

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The Future Of English Essay Examples

Type of paper: Essay

Topic: Culture , Leadership , English , China , America , Linguistics , World , Bible

Words: 1100

Published: 01/11/2020

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The Future of English

Introduction English is one of the world’s major international languages. Just which is the leader in a league table of languages depends upon the precise nature of the comparison being made. For example, according to an article by Turner (May 2012), Chinese is at top of the league by population with 937,132,000. However if the criterion is the greatest number of countries where each is spoken, English tops the table with 115, followed way behind by French at 35, then Arabic at 24 and Spanish, spoken in just 20 countries. Taking account of various factors, the article listed the languages in order of influence, still placing English at the top, followed by French, Russian and Spanish in that order. So English is currently the most influential international language, but will it still be so widely spoken in (say) 100 years time? This essay discusses the future of English as a leading and widely spoken international language.

Some Views on The Future of English

“English as she was spoke” – an article published in The Economist (Dec 2010), discussed the book “The Last Lingua Franca: English Until the Return of Babel”by Nicholas Ostler. The article’s subtitle: “The days of English as the world’s second language (after Chinese) may (slowly) be ending” gives a flavor of the article’s content. Ostler claimed that although English usage is increasing in international terms, as a mother tongue it is not. But he believes that future technology will allow computers and speech recognition software to make it unnecessary. In other words, suggesting that people will be able to communicate with each other across language barriers but without actually using those other languages. Dip (Apr 2008) took another view regarding the place of English as an international language. Dip saw it as unnatural and fundamentally wrong that English becomes a common language, even for tourists in countries where neither the native language nor their language is English, but where English is used as common ground – as a world language. Dip expressed annoyance that non-English speakers (e.g. Japanese tourists) tend to speak English to other non-English speakers in a non-English speaking country (e.g. France) to make themselves understood; also that – although he himself is American – Americans abroad expect by speaking English they will always be understood. He considered the widespread acceptance of English around the world to be why many young Americans are quite ignorant of world affairs outside the shores of the United States. In Dip’s view, people are defined by their language more so than by any other factor; hence he feels that if English were to be made the world language, those important cultural differences would disappear. Instead of considering one world language for the future, Dip believes what’s needed is “more cultural exchange and less cultural imperialism.” McWhorter (Jan 2011), took a different view. Although he noted that economically China is on an ascendancy and could become the world leader in that respect, he nonetheless believed that English will remain the world’s leading international language. He disagreed with Ostler’s view that translation technology will obviate the need to learn other languages. Additionally, he pointed out that because Chinese is so incredibly difficult for foreigners to learn, it is likely that English will remain first choice for the world’s international language. Yet another vision of the future of English was offered by an article in the The Telegraph, entitled “English will turn into Panglish in 100 years.” (Mar 2008). Dr Edwin Duncan, a University of Maryland historian, thought that new words will arise and meanings evolve, especially where English is a second language. The New Scientist reported that the global version of English – as utilized by non-native speakers for communication – is already acquiring local dialect content, and suggested that by the year 2020 there might be around two billion speaking English, but that only circa 300 million of them will use English as their first language. Other languages such as “Spanish, Hindi, Urdu and Arabic” will by then probably have similar numbers of native speakers. In the same article, Dr Suzette Haden Elgin – a former university linguist – viewed as uncertain the precise way that English will develop. She saw the likely options as either “Panglish – a single English that would have dialects” or “scores of wildly varying Englishes, many or most of them heading toward mutual unintelligibility.” She guessed that we will see the actuality in “less than 100 years.”

Conclusions

There are widely differing views about the future of English as a world language. The Nicholas Ostler book sees a world where technology including computer translation and speech recognition tools will make it unnecessary to learn a second language, which may reduce the amount of English spoken by people of other nationalities. Dip expressed a different perspective on the subject, deploring the universal global availability of English assumed by many of his fellow Americans and opposing the concept of English becoming the world language. McWhorter’s opinion was that although China may in the future become economically dominant, because Chinese is so notoriously difficult for foreigners to learn, it is very probable that English will remain the leading world language. The article in The Telegraph reported that English is already becoming more diverse as it is increasingly being spoken as a second language, and that by 2020 the 300 million or so of us speaking English as native speakers will be matched in numbers by people speaking a number of other languages as their first language, and that its precise future development is uncertain. Dr Edwin Duncan, thought that new words will arise and meanings evolve, especially where English is a second language. Of all these various opinions regarding the likely future of English, it is difficult to say which might be the closest to the reality of that future. Only time will tell. As Haden Elgin suggested – perhaps in the next 100 years!

Dip,T. “ Should English Be The World’s International Language?” (Apr 2008). Matador Network. Retrieved from http://matadornetwork.com/bnt/should-english-be-the-worlds-international-language/ “English as she was spoke.” (Dec 2010). The Economist. Retrieved from http://www.economist.com/node/17730434 “English will turn into Panglish in 100 years.” (Mar 2008). The Telegraph. Retrieved from http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1582954/English-will-turn-into-Panglish-in-100-years.html McWhorter, J. (Jan. 2010). “English Is Here To Stay.” The Daily Beast / Newsweek. Retrieved from http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2011/01/18/english-is-here-to-stay.html Ostler, N. (2010). The Last Lingua Franca: English Until the Return of Babel. New York. Walker & Company. Print.

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Importance Of English Language Essay

500 words importance of english language essay.

The English Language is becoming more and more common in the world. As a result, increasingly people are dedicating time to study English as their second language. In fact, many countries include it in their school syllabus to teach children this language from a young age. However, the true value of this language is that it helps remove many barriers from our life. Whether it is to find a new job or travel the world. In other words, it helps to progress in life both on a personal and professional level. Thus, the Importance of English Language Essay will help you understand all about it.

Importance Of English Language

Language is our major means of communication; it is how we share our thoughts with others. A language’s secondary purpose is to convey someone’s sentiments, emotions, or attitudes. English is one such language in the world that satisfies both the above purposes. English has been regarded as the first global Lingua Franca. It has become part and parcel of almost every existing field. We use it as the international language to communicate in many fields ranging from business to entertainment.

Many countries teach and encourage youngsters to acquire English as a second language. Even in nations where English is not an official language, many science and engineering curriculum are written in English.

English abilities will most certainly aid you in any business endeavours you choose to pursue. Many large corporations will only hire professional employees after determining whether or not they speak good English. Given the language’s prominence, English language classes will be advantageous to you if you want to work for a multinational organization and will teach you the communication skills needed to network with professionals in your area or enhance your career.

The English Language opens an ocean of career opportunities to those who speak this language anywhere in the world. Similarly, it has turned into an inevitable requirement for various fields and professions like medicine , computing and more.

In the fast-evolving world, it is essential to have a common language that we can understand to make the best use of the data and information available. As a result, the English Language has become a storehouse of various knowledge ranging from social to political fields.

Get the huge list of more than 500 Essay Topics and Ideas  

Reasons to Learn the English Language

As the importance of the English Language is clear now, we move on to why we must learn the English Language. First of all, it is a global language. It is so common that one out of five people can speak or understand this language.

Further, learning the English Language can help in getting a job easily. As it has become the language of many fields, it automatically increases the chances of landing a good job in a good company.

In addition, it helps with meeting new people. As it is the official language of 53 countries, learning it helps to break the language barriers. Most importantly, it is also the language of the Internet.

Another important reason to learn this language is that it makes travelling easier. Being a widely used language globally, it will help you connect with people easily. Similarly, it is also essential in the world of business.

It does not matter whether you are an employee or employer, it benefits everyone. Students who wish to study abroad must definitely study this language. Many countries use their schools and universities. So, it can offer a good opportunity for students.

Why and where do we need the English language?

• Use of English on the Internet – Because of the tremendous rise of information technology, particularly the internet, English is the language of choice for Internet users. The internet has also played an important role in promoting and spreading the English language throughout the world, as more and more people are exposed to it, and English has also become the language of the internet.
• Use of English in Education – English has become one of the majorly used languages to understand, learn and explain concepts from various fields of knowledge. The majority of instructional tools, materials, and texts are written in English. The global educational systems at colleges all over the world need English as a foreign language.
• Use of English for Travel purposes – As we all know, English has been named as the official language of 53 countries and over 400 million people in the world speak English, the English language comes in handy for communicating with everyone when anyone travels around the world be it for tourism, job opportunity, settlement, casual visits, etc.
• Use of English for Communication – The most important function of a language is to allow people to communicate effectively. For many years, English has been the most widely known and valued language on the planet. In other words, English becomes an efficient tool for communicating with people all over the world.

Conclusion of Importance Of English Language Essay

We use the English Language in most of our international communications. While it is not the most spoken language in the world, 53 countries have named it their official language. Moreover, about 400 million people globally use it as their first language. Thus, being the most common second language in the world, it will be beneficial to learn this language to open doors to new opportunities.

FAQ on Importance Of English Language Essay

Question 1: How does the English Language help you get a job?

Answer 1: the  English Language is the language of many things like science, aviation, computers, diplomacy, and tourism. Thus, if you know English, it will increase your chances of landing a good job in an international company.

Question 2: Does the English Language help in connecting with people globally?

Answer 2: Yes, it does. It is because English is the official language of 53 countries and we use it as a lingua franca (a mutually known language) by people from all over the world. This means that studying English can help us have a conversation with people on a global level.

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Essay on Future of English in India

Students are often asked to write an essay on Future of English in India in their schools and colleges. And if you’re also looking for the same, we have created 100-word, 250-word, and 500-word essays on the topic.

Let’s take a look…

100 Words Essay on Future of English in India

Introduction.

English is a global language that connects people from various cultures. In India, English has a significant role in education, business, and communication.

Role in Education

English is a medium of instruction in many Indian schools and universities. It helps students access global knowledge and opportunities.

Importance in Business

English is crucial in the Indian business sector. It aids in international trade and commerce, contributing to India’s economic growth.

Communication Tool

English serves as a bridge between different linguistic communities in India, promoting unity and mutual understanding.

The future of English in India looks promising. Its importance in education, business, and communication ensures its continued relevance.

250 Words Essay on Future of English in India

The prominence of english in india.

English, once a symbol of colonial rule, has morphed into a linguistic tool of empowerment in India. The language, with its global recognition and widespread use in the business world, has become an essential aspect of India’s socio-economic fabric.

The Current Scenario

In contemporary India, English is more than a second language. It has become a language of opportunity, a gateway to global commerce, academia, and culture. The IT boom in the late 90s highlighted the significance of English proficiency, with multinationals favoring employees who could effectively communicate in English.

English and Education

The Indian education system also emphasizes the importance of English. With many institutions adopting English as the medium of instruction, the language has become a prerequisite for academic success. Moreover, the global recognition of Indian professionals is often attributed to their fluency in English.

The Future of English in India

The future of English in India seems promising. As India continues to integrate with the global economy, the demand for English proficiency is likely to grow. The language is seen as a means to enhance employability and social mobility, particularly among the youth.

However, this does not undermine the importance of regional languages. The coexistence of English with regional languages is a unique feature of India’s linguistic landscape. In the future, a balanced approach, leveraging English proficiency while preserving regional languages, will be pivotal.

In conclusion, the future of English in India is intertwined with the country’s socio-economic progress. As India strides towards becoming a global powerhouse, English will play a crucial role in its journey.

500 Words Essay on Future of English in India

The English language, originally introduced in India during the colonial period, has evolved into a significant aspect of Indian society, influencing education, business, and social interactions. As we look forward, the future of English in India appears promising, with potential implications on various sectors.

The Role of English in Education

English has been the medium of instruction in a majority of schools and universities in India. It is perceived as a language of opportunity, opening doors to global perspectives and providing access to a wealth of knowledge. The future may witness an increase in English medium schools, given the growing demand for English proficiency in the job market. However, it is crucial to strike a balance between the promotion of English and the preservation of local languages to avoid cultural erosion.

English in the Professional Sphere

In the professional domain, English is often seen as a prerequisite for career advancement. India’s booming IT industry, for instance, relies heavily on English communication. As India continues to integrate with the global economy, the importance of English is likely to increase. It is expected that more companies will require English proficiency, leading to an increase in English language training programs.

The Influence of Digitalization

The digital revolution has further entrenched English in Indian society. With the internet largely dominated by English content, digital literacy often implies English literacy. The rise of digital platforms and social media has also boosted the use of English, particularly among the youth. As India progresses towards a digital future, English will likely become even more widespread.

The Linguistic Diversity Challenge

Despite the growing prominence of English, India’s linguistic diversity poses a challenge. With over 21 officially recognized languages and hundreds of dialects, English is often a second or third language for many Indians. This raises concerns about linguistic inclusivity and the potential marginalization of non-English speakers. Future policies need to address this issue, ensuring that English becomes a bridge rather than a barrier.

In conclusion, the future of English in India is likely to be shaped by factors such as educational policies, economic globalization, and digitalization. While English is set to grow in importance, it is essential to ensure that this growth is inclusive and does not come at the expense of India’s rich linguistic diversity. The future of English in India thus lies in its ability to coexist and evolve alongside India’s multitude of languages, reflecting the country’s unique blend of tradition and modernity.

That’s it! I hope the essay helped you.

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• Essay on Food Security in India
• Essay on Digital Payment in India
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British Council

Six trends for the new future of english language teaching, by chia suan chong, 27 october 2021 - 08:48.

Poyraz Tütüncü/Pinhole Istanbul, Author MAHMUT CEYLAN

What has inspired your teaching and teacher development this year? Chia Suan Chong, writer, communication skills and intercultural skills trainer, who reported live from the ELTons awards in November 2021, lists her top six.

The announcement of the finalists of the ELTons, a.k.a. the British Council ELTons awards for innovation in English language teaching, has always been an interesting and revealing time. It is a time when teams and individuals are celebrated for their innovation in the courses, books, platforms, apps, projects, and more that they’ve contributed to the world of English language teaching. It is also a time when we get to learn about the current trends of our industry and the directions we are heading in.

As I excitedly clicked through the lists of finalists for the 19th year of the ELTons, here are some of the trends that became apparent.

Using the real world

One exciting thing about language teaching is the flexibility of the content of our materials. Science teachers teach scientific theories and facts and history teachers have historical events and stories as the subject content, but English teachers can use a variety of topics as vehicles to present the English language. We can teach English using fairy tales, workplace rules or quirky homes around the world. Some of the ELTons finalists have discovered the value in using real world events and acquainting learners with real-world scenarios where they might be using English. Sensations English (UK) for example uses news-based video and articles to help students learn about real-world events while improving their language skills. Immerse Virtual Language Experience Platform (Immerse VR, USA) puts students in a 3D world as they experience language and culture in real-world scenarios. And Vlogger Academy (Digital Learning Associates Ltd with The Weirdos and Creatives Collective, UK) uses real-life YouTubers and authentic content to expose learners to the global English used in the world today.

Using English to communicate with the world

There is no doubt that English is an indispensable tool for international communication today. Whether our learners are posting on social media, creating videos on video-sharing platforms or working in international project teams, the English language provides them with the opportunity to communicate not just with people who use English as a first language, but also those who use English as a second or foreign language. 

This reality is reflected not just in products like the already-mentioned Vlogger Academy, but also Converse Across the Universe: Managing Cross-Cultural Communication (Yelena Golovatch, Margarita Kochan, Yauheni Radzetski, Belarus), where students develop critical thinking and communication skills in practical everyday situations where they might encounter different cultures and different attitudes and ways of behaving. 

Even in Online English Pronunciation Course (Luke Nicholson, Improve your accent, UK) that is written for learners based in the UK, the emphasis is on intelligibility, i.e. being understood, and not only becoming someone that learners are not. 

As Our Languages (Stand For/FTD Educação, Brazil) very appropriately describes it, English is a tool for our students to express themselves – a tool not unlike the language of art, music or social media – a tool used to communicate with the world. And like these different forms of expression, learners need to feel a sense of ownership of the English language and own their language learning experience. English will serve to express their identities – a theme that is explored in Communicating Identities (Routledge, UK), a teacher’s guide that supports learners in their exploration and reflection of the different aspects of their identities.

Life skills  

As we provide our learners with opportunities to practise communicating in English, there is flexibility not only in the content of the texts we use but also in the tasks that we get learners to perform. Through these tasks, learners not only have the chance to enhance their language skills, but they are also able to develop other life skills. We saw the development of intercultural skills in the already-mentioned Converse Across the Universe: Managing Cross-Cultural Communication. This focus on expanding the learners’ knowledge of the world is also seen in Talk about China with Oxford (OUP China Ltd with Jingban Beijing Education Culture Media Co. Ltd, China), a series of courses that enable young learners to learn about China via the English language.

Other life skills that feature heavily among the finalists are problem-solving skills and collaboration skills – common features of materials that make use of a task-based learning approach to language learning. Escape the Classroom (Perceptia Press, UK/Japan) for example, requires students to work together in teams to figure out ways of solving puzzles and breaking codes in order to escape a room. Oxford Discover Futures (OUP – English language teaching, UK, Egypt, Mexico, Turkey, Spain and the Middle East) promotes critical thinking and collaboration skills through thought-provoking questions. And English Code (Pearson English, UK) uses code-breaking activities and creative tasks to help nurture the spirit of experimentation, collaboration, resilience and curiosity in primary school students. 

Included in life skills are higher-order thinking skills and exam-taking skills, and this can be done in innovative ways. Literatu Scribo for IELTS Writing Success (Literatu Pty Ltd Australia, Australia), for example, uses an online platform to help students improve their core English writing skills. The approach that Fun Skills (CUP and Cambridge Assessment English, UK) takes to this is perhaps reflected in its title, as children prepare for the exams they need to take in the future through songs and entertaining stories. 

The power of stories

Learning through stories is another clear thread that we see in many of the finalists this year. Fiction Express (Fiction Express, Spain/UK) develops literacy skills through well-supported reading texts while BOOKR Class (BOOKR Kids, Hungary) uses a gamified library app to provide interactive books from the classics of world literature and original stories. 

In this age when we have access to an incredible selection of stories in the form of TV shows we watch through online streaming services, Days Crossing (Chasing Time English, New Zealand) provide learners with original TV series that are specifically made for English language learners. 

Inclusion and wellbeing

Perhaps Link Online Learners a.k.a LOL (hundrED, Finland, with volunteers and educators from 13 different countries) is an example of how the trends of life skills, using real world content and helping learners to English to communicate with the world can all be embodied in one product. LOL provides a platform for teachers and students as a way of connecting with a diverse global youth network in order to develop curiosity, empathy for other cultures and an understanding of different perspectives and ways of life. The volunteers and educators involved in this project are from a diverse range of countries, demonstrating the inclusive nature of this project. 

The importance of diversity and inclusion in English language teaching was highlighted at the ELTons 2020 when the British Council created the new judge’s commendation category for Equality, Diversity and Inclusion – celebrating finalists whose resources bridge educational inequality, reflect diversity and promote the inclusion of typically underrepresented groups. ( Click here to find out more about last year’s Equality, Diversity and Inclusion winners)

This year, we continue to see the importance of this theme as we look at the finalists across the different categories of the ELTons. From English competency courses for Para Powerlifters (World Para Powerlifting, Germany, with International Paralympic Committee) and grammar for the deaf and hard of hearing (General Directorate for special education and continuous education, Ministry of Education in Sultanate of Oman with AI ROYAA NEWSPAPER, Sultanate of Oman), to Helping Matters – an English course for social workers (Perceptia Press, UK/Japan) and guides for volunteers at conversation clubs (Learning and Work Institute with Learning Unlimited, UK), we see products that are catered for learners and teachers with a wide range of needs and backgrounds.

The importance of inclusion can also be seen in CIELL-Comic for Inclusive English language learning (Lancaster University, UK, with AKTO Art & Design College, Greece, Innovation in Learning Institute, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität, Erlangen-Nürnberg, Germany, Language Centre, University of Cyprus, Cyprus) and many of the finalists in the category for Local Innovation awards, such as Mosaik Dogme Toolkit , a toolkit that helps English teachers of refugees make learning communicative and engaging.  Teaching in challenging circumstances (Cambridge University Press, UK) is another example of support provided to teachers involved in formal or informal teaching in areas with a growing number of refugees and displaced people.

Many of these projects focus on including diverse student groups and providing support for both their learning and their wellbeing. But in the process of doing so, we should also remember to look after ourselves. Teacher Wellbeing (Oxford University Press, UK) provides teachers will a variety of practical ideas to support and maintain teacher wellbeing as teachers while nurturing the professional relationships they have.  

Our next normal   

The last couple of years have no doubt presented teachers with new challenges, and so it is no surprise that these new challenges are reflected in several ELTons finalists this year. The Teachers’ Classroom App (PeacheyPublications Ltd, UK) makes the transition to online teaching easier by offering teachers training of common digital tools and ready-made lessons that teachers can launch and deliver from their desktop. LearnCube Homework Application (LearnCube, UK) provides a digital solution to teachers who have to or want to manage homework and give personalised feedback for their online classes. Engaging language learners in contemporary classrooms (Cambridge University Press) recognises the distractions that learners face today and helps teachers consider the aspects of learner engagement that they have power to influence more directly. And the Oxford Advanced Learner’s Dictionary App (OUP, UK, with Paragon Software, Germany/Russia) gives learners to autonomy to improve their vocabulary and pronunciation anytime, anywhere as they navigate flipped learning, online learning and blended learning. 

Previous-ELTons winner, The HandsUp Project, also adapted in response to the school closures in 2020/21. Their Facebook Live Team teaching for the Palestinian English Curriculum (The Hands Up Project, UK with UNRWA, Gaza) delivered daily live team-taught classes remotely, led by a Palestinian English teacher and a teacher in another country. This push towards online lessons in the past couple of years has also resulted in us embracing global communication and increased learner autonomy.

As we reflect on the current trends of our industry through the ELTons finalists of 2021, we realise that the events of 2020/21 might have fast-forwarded some of the trends that were already developing in our industry, but none of them come as a surprise. If anything, this serves as confirmation as to where English language teaching and learning is going and will be going in the years to come. 

Watch recordings of the ELTons online  and meet the winners. Chia reported live from the event alongside teacher, writer, editor, and conference speaker Callie Massey.

Chia also guest tweeted live using the username @BCEltons . Join in the Twitter discussion using #ELTons.

Teachers, visit our TeachingEnglish website for lesson plans and activities.

View the discussion thread.

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Why the Future Doesn't Need Us

From the moment I became involved in the creation of new technologies, their ethical dimensions have concerned me, but it was only in the autumn of 1998 that I became anxiously aware of how great are the dangers facing us in the 21st century. I can date the onset of my unease to the day I met Ray Kurzweil , the deservedly famous inventor of the first reading machine for the blind and many other amazing things.

Ray and I were both speakers at George Gilder 's Telecosm conference, and I encountered him by chance in the bar of the hotel after both our sessions were over. I was sitting with John Searle, a Berkeley philosopher who studies consciousness. While we were talking, Ray approached and a conversation began, the subject of which haunts me to this day.

I had missed Ray's talk and the subsequent panel that Ray and John had been on, and they now picked right up where they'd left off, with Ray saying that the rate of improvement of technology was going to accelerate and that we were going to become robots or fuse with robots or something like that, and John countering that this couldn't happen, because the robots couldn't be conscious .

While I had heard such talk before, I had always felt sentient robots were in the realm of science fiction. But now, from someone I respected, I was hearing a strong argument that they were a near-term possibility. I was taken aback, especially given Ray's proven ability to imagine and create the future. I already knew that new technologies like genetic engineering and nanotechnology were giving us the power to remake the world, but a realistic and imminent scenario for intelligent robots surprised me.

It's easy to get jaded about such breakthroughs. We hear in the news almost every day of some kind of technological or scientific advance. Yet this was no ordinary prediction. In the hotel bar, Ray gave me a partial preprint of his then-forthcoming book The Age of Spiritual Machines , which outlined a utopia he foresaw—one in which humans gained near immortality by becoming one with robotic technology. On reading it, my sense of unease only intensified; I felt sure he had to be understating the dangers, understating the probability of a bad outcome along this path.

I found myself most troubled by a passage detailing a dystopian scenario:

First let us postulate that the computer scientists succeed in developing intelligent machines that can do all things better than human beings can do them. In that case presumably all work will be done by vast, highly organized systems of machines and no human effort will be necessary. Either of two cases might occur. The machines might be permitted to make all of their own decisions without human oversight, or else human control over the machines might be retained.

If the machines are permitted to make all their own decisions, we can't make any conjectures as to the results, because it is impossible to guess how such machines might behave. We only point out that the fate of the human race would be at the mercy of the machines. It might be argued that the human race would never be foolish enough to hand over all the power to the machines. But we are suggesting neither that the human race would voluntarily turn power over to the machines nor that the machines would willfully seize power. What we do suggest is that the human race might easily permit itself to drift into a position of such dependence on the machines that it would have no practical choice but to accept all of the machines' decisions. As society and the problems that face it become more and more complex and machines become more and more intelligent, people will let machines make more of their decisions for them, simply because machine-made decisions will bring better results than man-made ones. Eventually a stage may be reached at which the decisions necessary to keep the system running will be so complex that human beings will be incapable of making them intelligently. At that stage the machines will be in effective control. People won't be able to just turn the machines off, because they will be so dependent on them that turning them off would amount to suicide.

By Aarian Marshall

By Carlton Reid

By Justin Pot

On the other hand it is possible that human control over the machines may be retained. In that case the average man may have control over certain private machines of his own, such as his car or his personal computer, but control over large systems of machines will be in the hands of a tiny elite—just as it is today, but with two differences. Due to improved techniques the elite will have greater control over the masses; and because human work will no longer be necessary the masses will be superfluous, a useless burden on the system. If the elite is ruthless they may simply decide to exterminate the mass of humanity. If they are humane they may use propaganda or other psychological or biological techniques to reduce the birth rate until the mass of humanity becomes extinct, leaving the world to the elite. Or, if the elite consists of soft-hearted liberals, they may decide to play the role of good shepherds to the rest of the human race. They will see to it that everyone's physical needs are satisfied, that all children are raised under psychologically hygienic conditions, that everyone has a wholesome hobby to keep him busy, and that anyone who may become dissatisfied undergoes “treatment” to cure his “problem.” Of course, life will be so purposeless that people will have to be biologically or psychologically engineered either to remove their need for the power process or make them “sublimate” their drive for power into some harmless hobby. These engineered human beings may be happy in such a society, but they will most certainly not be free. They will have been reduced to the status of domestic animals. 1

In the book, you don't discover until you turn the page that the author of this passage is Theodore Kaczynski—the Unabomber. I am no apologist for Kaczynski. His bombs killed three people during a 17-year terror campaign and wounded many others. One of his bombs gravely injured my friend David Gelernter, one of the most brilliant and visionary computer scientists of our time. Like many of my colleagues, I felt that I could easily have been the Unabomber's next target.

Kaczynski's actions were murderous and, in my view, criminally insane. He is clearly a Luddite, but simply saying this does not dismiss his argument; as difficult as it is for me to acknowledge, I saw some merit in the reasoning in this single passage. I felt compelled to confront it.

Kaczynski's dystopian vision describes unintended consequences, a well-known problem with the design and use of technology, and one that is clearly related to Murphy's law—“Anything that can go wrong, will.” (Actually, this is Finagle's law, which in itself shows that Finagle was right.) Our overuse of antibiotics has led to what may be the biggest such problem so far: the emergence of antibiotic-resistant and much more dangerous bacteria. Similar things happened when attempts to eliminate malarial mosquitoes using DDT caused them to acquire DDT resistance; malarial parasites likewise acquired multi-drug-resistant genes. 2

The cause of many such surprises seems clear: The systems involved are complex, involving interaction among and feedback between many parts. Any changes to such a system will cascade in ways that are difficult to predict; this is especially true when human actions are involved.

I started showing friends the Kaczynski quote from The Age of Spiritual Machines ; I would hand them Kurzweil's book, let them read the quote, and then watch their reaction as they discovered who had written it. At around the same time, I found Hans Moravec's book Robot: Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind . Moravec is one of the leaders in robotics research, and was a founder of the world's largest robotics research program, at Carnegie Mellon University. Robot gave me more material to try out on my friends—material surprisingly supportive of Kaczynski's argument. For example:

Biological species almost never survive encounters with superior competitors. Ten million years ago, South and North America were separated by a sunken Panama isthmus. South America, like Australia today, was populated by marsupial mammals, including pouched equivalents of rats, deers, and tigers. When the isthmus connecting North and South America rose, it took only a few thousand years for the northern placental species, with slightly more effective metabolisms and reproductive and nervous systems, to displace and eliminate almost all the southern marsupials.

In a completely free marketplace, superior robots would surely affect humans as North American placentals affected South American marsupials (and as humans have affected countless species). Robotic industries would compete vigorously among themselves for matter, energy, and space, incidentally driving their price beyond human reach. Unable to afford the necessities of life, biological humans would be squeezed out of existence.

There is probably some breathing room, because we do not live in a completely free marketplace. Government coerces nonmarket behavior, especially by collecting taxes. Judiciously applied, governmental coercion could support human populations in high style on the fruits of robot labor, perhaps for a long while.

A textbook dystopia—and Moravec is just getting wound up. He goes on to discuss how our main job in the 21st century will be “ensuring continued cooperation from the robot industries” by passing laws decreeing that they be “nice,” and to describe how seriously dangerous a human can be “once transformed into an unbounded superintelligent robot.” 3 Moravec's view is that the robots will eventually succeed us—that humans clearly face extinction.

I decided it was time to talk to my friend Danny Hillis. Danny became famous as the cofounder of Thinking Machines Corporation, which built a very powerful parallel supercomputer. Despite my current job title of Chief Scientist at Sun Microsystems, I am more a computer architect than a scientist, and I respect Danny's knowledge of the information and physical sciences more than that of any other single person I know. Danny is also a highly regarded futurist who thinks long-term—four years ago he started the Long Now Foundation, which is building a clock designed to last 10,000 years, in an attempt to draw attention to the pitifully short attention span of our society. (See “ Test of Time ,” Wired 8.03.)

So I flew to Los Angeles for the express purpose of having dinner with Danny and his wife, Pati. I went through my now-familiar routine, trotting out the ideas and passages that I found so disturbing. Danny's answer—directed specifically at Kurzweil's scenario of humans merging with robots—came swiftly, and quite surprised me. He said, simply, that the changes would come gradually, and that we would get used to them.

But I guess I wasn't totally surprised. I had seen a quote from Danny in Kurzweil's book in which he said, “I'm as fond of my body as anyone, but if I can be 200 with a body of silicon, I'll take it.” It seemed that he was at peace with this process and its attendant risks, while I was not.

While talking and thinking about Kurzweil, Kaczynski, and Moravec, I suddenly remembered a novel I had read almost 20 years ago - The White Plague , by Frank Herbert—in which a molecular biologist is driven insane by the senseless murder of his family. To seek revenge he constructs and disseminates a new and highly contagious plague that kills widely but selectively. (We're lucky Kaczynski was a mathematician, not a molecular biologist.) I was also reminded of the Borg of Star Trek , a hive of partly biological, partly robotic creatures with a strong destructive streak. Borg-like disasters are a staple of science fiction, so why hadn't I been more concerned about such robotic dystopias earlier? Why weren't other people more concerned about these nightmarish scenarios?

Part of the answer certainly lies in our attitude toward the new—in our bias toward instant familiarity and unquestioning acceptance. Accustomed to living with almost routine scientific breakthroughs, we have yet to come to terms with the fact that the most compelling 21st-century technologies—robotics, genetic engineering, and nanotechnology—pose a different threat than the technologies that have come before. Specifically, robots, engineered organisms, and nanobots share a dangerous amplifying factor: They can self-replicate. A bomb is blown up only once—but one bot can become many, and quickly get out of control.

Much of my work over the past 25 years has been on computer networking, where the sending and receiving of messages creates the opportunity for out-of-control replication. But while replication in a computer or a computer network can be a nuisance, at worst it disables a machine or takes down a network or network service. Uncontrolled self-replication in these newer technologies runs a much greater risk: a risk of substantial damage in the physical world.

Each of these technologies also offers untold promise: The vision of near immortality that Kurzweil sees in his robot dreams drives us forward; genetic engineering may soon provide treatments, if not outright cures, for most diseases; and nanotechnology and nanomedicine can address yet more ills. Together they could significantly extend our average life span and improve the quality of our lives. Yet, with each of these technologies, a sequence of small, individually sensible advances leads to an accumulation of great power and, concomitantly, great danger.

What was different in the 20th century? Certainly, the technologies underlying the weapons of mass destruction (WMD)—nuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC)—were powerful, and the weapons an enormous threat. But building nuclear weapons required, at least for a time, access to both rare—indeed, effectively unavailable—raw materials and highly protected information; biological and chemical weapons programs also tended to require large-scale activities.

The 21st-century technologies—genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics (GNR)—are so powerful that they can spawn whole new classes of accidents and abuses. Most dangerously, for the first time, these accidents and abuses are widely within the reach of individuals or small groups. They will not require large facilities or rare raw materials. Knowledge alone will enable the use of them.

Thus we have the possibility not just of weapons of mass destruction but of knowledge-enabled mass destruction (KMD), this destructiveness hugely amplified by the power of self-replication.

I think it is no exaggeration to say we are on the cusp of the further perfection of extreme evil, an evil whose possibility spreads well beyond that which weapons of mass destruction bequeathed to the nation-states, on to a surprising and terrible empowerment of extreme individuals.

Nothing about the way I got involved with computers suggested to me that I was going to be facing these kinds of issues.

My life has been driven by a deep need to ask questions and find answers. When I was 3, I was already reading, so my father took me to the elementary school, where I sat on the principal's lap and read him a story. I started school early, later skipped a grade, and escaped into books—I was incredibly motivated to learn. I asked lots of questions, often driving adults to distraction.

As a teenager I was very interested in science and technology. I wanted to be a ham radio operator but didn't have the money to buy the equipment. Ham radio was the Internet of its time: very addictive, and quite solitary. Money issues aside, my mother put her foot down—I was not to be a ham; I was antisocial enough already.

I may not have had many close friends, but I was awash in ideas. By high school, I had discovered the great science fiction writers. I remember especially Heinlein's Have Spacesuit Will Travel and Asimov’s I, Robot , with its Three Laws of Robotics. I was enchanted by the descriptions of space travel, and wanted to have a telescope to look at the stars; since I had no money to buy or make one, I checked books on telescope-making out of the library and read about making them instead. I soared in my imagination.

Thursday nights my parents went bowling, and we kids stayed home alone. It was the night of Gene Roddenberry's original Star Trek , and the program made a big impression on me. I came to accept its notion that humans had a future in space, Western-style, with big heroes and adventures. Roddenberry's vision of the centuries to come was one with strong moral values, embodied in codes like the Prime Directive: to not interfere in the development of less technologically advanced civilizations. This had an incredible appeal to me; ethical humans, not robots, dominated this future, and I took Roddenberry's dream as part of my own.

I excelled in mathematics in high school, and when I went to the University of Michigan as an undergraduate engineering student I took the advanced curriculum of the mathematics majors. Solving math problems was an exciting challenge, but when I discovered computers I found something much more interesting: a machine into which you could put a program that attempted to solve a problem, after which the machine quickly checked the solution. The computer had a clear notion of correct and incorrect, true and false. Were my ideas correct? The machine could tell me. This was very seductive.

I was lucky enough to get a job programming early supercomputers and discovered the amazing power of large machines to numerically simulate advanced designs. When I went to graduate school at UC Berkeley in the mid-1970s, I started staying up late, often all night, inventing new worlds inside the machines. Solving problems. Writing the code that argued so strongly to be written.

In The Agony and the Ecstasy , Irving Stone's biographical novel of Michelangelo, Stone described vividly how Michelangelo released the statues from the stone, “breaking the marble spell,” carving from the images in his mind. 4  In my most ecstatic moments, the software in the computer emerged in the same way. Once I had imagined it in my mind I felt that it was already there in the machine, waiting to be released. Staying up all night seemed a small price to pay to free it—to give the ideas concrete form.

After a few years at Berkeley I started to send out some of the software I had written—an instructional Pascal system, Unix utilities, and a text editor called vi (which is still, to my surprise, widely used more than 20 years later)—to others who had similar small PDP-11 and VAX minicomputers. These adventures in software eventually turned into the Berkeley version of the Unix operating system, which became a personal “success disaster”—so many people wanted it that I never finished my PhD. Instead I got a job working for Darpa putting Berkeley Unix on the Internet and fixing it to be reliable and to run large research applications well. This was all great fun and very rewarding. And, frankly, I saw no robots here, or anywhere near.

Still, by the early 1980s, I was drowning. The Unix releases were very successful, and my little project of one soon had money and some staff, but the problem at Berkeley was always office space rather than money—there wasn't room for the help the project needed, so when the other founders of Sun Microsystems showed up I jumped at the chance to join them. At Sun, the long hours continued into the early days of workstations and personal computers, and I have enjoyed participating in the creation of advanced microprocessor technologies and Internet technologies such as Java and Jini.

From all this, I trust it is clear that I am not a Luddite. I have always, rather, had a strong belief in the value of the scientific search for truth and in the ability of great engineering to bring material progress. The Industrial Revolution has immeasurably improved everyone's life over the last couple hundred years, and I always expected my career to involve the building of worthwhile solutions to real problems, one problem at a time.

I have not been disappointed. My work has had more impact than I had ever hoped for and has been more widely used than I could have reasonably expected. I have spent the last 20 years still trying to figure out how to make computers as reliable as I want them to be (they are not nearly there yet) and how to make them simple to use (a goal that has met with even less relative success). Despite some progress, the problems that remain seem even more daunting.

But while I was aware of the moral dilemmas surrounding technology's consequences in fields like weapons research, I did not expect that I would confront such issues in my own field, or at least not so soon.

Perhaps it is always hard to see the bigger impact while you are in the vortex of a change. Failing to understand the consequences of our inventions while we are in the rapture of discovery and innovation seems to be a common fault of scientists and technologists; we have long been driven by the overarching desire to know that is the nature of science's quest, not stopping to notice that the progress to newer and more powerful technologies can take on a life of its own.

I have long realized that the big advances in information technology come not from the work of computer scientists, computer architects, or electrical engineers, but from that of physical scientists. The physicists Stephen Wolfram and Brosl Hasslacher introduced me, in the early 1980s, to chaos theory and nonlinear systems. In the 1990s, I learned about complex systems from conversations with Danny Hillis, the biologist Stuart Kauffman, the Nobel-laureate physicist Murray Gell-Mann, and others. Most recently, Hasslacher and the electrical engineer and device physicist Mark Reed have been giving me insight into the incredible possibilities of molecular electronics.

In my own work, as codesigner of three microprocessor architectures—SPARC, picoJava, and MAJC—and as the designer of several implementations thereof, I've been afforded a deep and firsthand acquaintance with Moore's law. For decades, Moore's law has correctly predicted the exponential rate of improvement of semiconductor technology. Until last year I believed that the rate of advances predicted by Moore's law might continue only until roughly 2010, when some physical limits would begin to be reached. It was not obvious to me that a new technology would arrive in time to keep performance advancing smoothly.

But because of the recent rapid and radical progress in molecular electronics—where individual atoms and molecules replace lithographically drawn transistors—and related nanoscale technologies, we should be able to meet or exceed the Moore's law rate of progress for another 30 years. By 2030, we are likely to be able to build machines, in quantity, a million times as powerful as the personal computers of today—sufficient to implement the dreams of Kurzweil and Moravec.

As this enormous computing power is combined with the manipulative advances of the physical sciences and the new, deep understandings in genetics, enormous transformative power is being unleashed. These combinations open up the opportunity to completely redesign the world, for better or worse: The replicating and evolving processes that have been confined to the natural world are about to become realms of human endeavor.

In designing software and microprocessors, I have never had the feeling that I was designing an intelligent machine. The software and hardware is so fragile and the capabilities of the machine to “think” so clearly absent that, even as a possibility, this has always seemed very far in the future.

But now, with the prospect of human-level computing power in about 30 years, a new idea suggests itself: that I may be working to create tools which will enable the construction of the technology that may replace our species. How do I feel about this? Very uncomfortable. Having struggled my entire career to build reliable software systems, it seems to me more than likely that this future will not work out as well as some people may imagine. My personal experience suggests we tend to overestimate our design abilities.

Given the incredible power of these new technologies, shouldn't we be asking how we can best coexist with them? And if our own extinction is a likely, or even possible, outcome of our technological development, shouldn't we proceed with great caution?

The dream of robotics is, first, that intelligent machines can do our work for us, allowing us lives of leisure, restoring us to Eden. Yet in his history of such ideas, Darwin Among the Machines , George Dyson warns: “In the game of life and evolution there are three players at the table: human beings, nature, and machines. I am firmly on the side of nature. But nature, I suspect, is on the side of the machines.” As we have seen, Moravec agrees, believing we may well not survive the encounter with the superior robot species.

How soon could such an intelligent robot be built? The coming advances in computing power seem to make it possible by 2030. And once an intelligent robot exists, it is only a small step to a robot species—to an intelligent robot that can make evolved copies of itself.

A second dream of robotics is that we will gradually replace ourselves with our robotic technology, achieving near immortality by downloading our consciousnesses; it is this process that Danny Hillis thinks we will gradually get used to and that Ray Kurzweil elegantly details in The Age of Spiritual Machines . (We are beginning to see intimations of this in the implantation of computer devices into the human body, as illustrated on the cover of Wired 8.02.)

But if we are downloaded into our technology, what are the chances that we will thereafter be ourselves or even human? It seems to me far more likely that a robotic existence would not be like a human one in any sense that we understand, that the robots would in no sense be our children, that on this path our humanity may well be lost.

Genetic engineering promises to revolutionize agriculture by increasing crop yields while reducing the use of pesticides; to create tens of thousands of novel species of bacteria, plants, viruses, and animals; to replace reproduction, or supplement it, with cloning; to create cures for many diseases, increasing our life span and our quality of life; and much, much more. We now know with certainty that these profound changes in the biological sciences are imminent and will challenge all our notions of what life is.

Technologies such as human cloning have in particular raised our awareness of the profound ethical and moral issues we face. If, for example, we were to reengineer ourselves into several separate and unequal species using the power of genetic engineering, then we would threaten the notion of equality that is the very cornerstone of our democracy.

Given the incredible power of genetic engineering, it's no surprise that there are significant safety issues in its use. My friend Amory Lovins recently cowrote, along with Hunter Lovins, an editorial that provides an ecological view of some of these dangers. Among their concerns: that “the new botany aligns the development of plants with their economic, not evolutionary, success.” (See “ A Tale of Two Botanies ”) Amory's long career has been focused on energy and resource efficiency by taking a whole-system view of human-made systems; such a whole-system view often finds simple, smart solutions to otherwise seemingly difficult problems, and is usefully applied here as well.

After reading the Lovins' editorial, I saw an op-ed by Gregg Easterbrook in The New York Times (November 19, 1999) about genetically engineered crops, under the headline: “Food for the Future: Someday, rice will have built-in vitamin A. Unless the Luddites win.”

Are Amory and Hunter Lovins Luddites? Certainly not. I believe we all would agree that golden rice, with its built-in vitamin A, is probably a good thing, if developed with proper care and respect for the likely dangers in moving genes across species boundaries.

Awareness of the dangers inherent in genetic engineering is beginning to grow, as reflected in the Lovins’ editorial. The general public is aware of, and uneasy about, genetically modified foods, and seems to be rejecting the notion that such foods should be permitted to be unlabeled.

But genetic engineering technology is already very far along. As the Lovins note, the USDA has already approved about 50 genetically engineered crops for unlimited release; more than half of the world's soybeans and a third of its corn now contain genes spliced in from other forms of life.

While there are many important issues here, my own major concern with genetic engineering is narrower: that it gives the power—whether militarily, accidentally, or in a deliberate terrorist act—to create a White Plague.

The many wonders of nanotechnology were first imagined by the Nobel-laureate physicist Richard Feynman in a speech he gave in 1959, subsequently published under the title “There's Plenty of Room at the Bottom.” The book that made a big impression on me, in the mid-‘80s, was Eric Drexler's Engines of Creation , in which he described beautifully how manipulation of matter at the atomic level could create a utopian future of abundance, where just about everything could be made cheaply, and almost any imaginable disease or physical problem could be solved using nanotechnology and artificial intelligences.

A subsequent book, Unbounding the Future: The Nanotechnology Revolution , which Drexler cowrote, imagines some of the changes that might take place in a world where we had molecular-level “assemblers.” Assemblers could make possible incredibly low-cost solar power, cures for cancer and the common cold by augmentation of the human immune system, essentially complete cleanup of the environment, incredibly inexpensive pocket supercomputers—in fact, any product would be manufacturable by assemblers at a cost no greater than that of wood—spaceflight more accessible than transoceanic travel today, and restoration of extinct species.

I remember feeling good about nanotechnology after reading Engines of Creation . As a technologist, it gave me a sense of calm—that is, nanotechnology showed us that incredible progress was possible, and indeed perhaps inevitable. If nanotechnology was our future, then I didn't feel pressed to solve so many problems in the present. I would get to Drexler's utopian future in due time; I might as well enjoy life more in the here and now. It didn't make sense, given his vision, to stay up all night, all the time.

Drexler's vision also led to a lot of good fun. I would occasionally get to describe the wonders of nanotechnology to others who had not heard of it. After teasing them with all the things Drexler described I would give a homework assignment of my own: “Use nanotechnology to create a vampire; for extra credit create an antidote.”

With these wonders came clear dangers, of which I was acutely aware. As I said at a nanotechnology conference in 1989, “We can't simply do our science and not worry about these ethical issues.” 5 But my subsequent conversations with physicists convinced me that nanotechnology might not even work—or, at least, it wouldn't work anytime soon. Shortly thereafter I moved to Colorado, to a skunk works I had set up, and the focus of my work shifted to software for the Internet, specifically on ideas that became Java and Jini.

Then, last summer, Brosl Hasslacher told me that nanoscale molecular electronics was now practical. This was new news, at least to me, and I think to many people—and it radically changed my opinion about nanotechnology. It sent me back to Engines of Creation . Rereading Drexler's work after more than 10 years, I was dismayed to realize how little I had remembered of its lengthy section called “Dangers and Hopes,” including a discussion of how nanotechnologies can become “engines of destruction.” Indeed, in my rereading of this cautionary material today, I am struck by how naive some of Drexler's safeguard proposals seem, and how much greater I judge the dangers to be now than even he seemed to then. (Having anticipated and described many technical and political problems with nanotechnology, Drexler started the Foresight Institute in the late 1980s “to help prepare society for anticipated advanced technologies”—most important, nanotechnology.)

The enabling breakthrough to assemblers seems quite likely within the next 20 years. Molecular electronics—the new subfield of nanotechnology where individual molecules are circuit elements—should mature quickly and become enormously lucrative within this decade, causing a large incremental investment in all nanotechnologies.

Unfortunately, as with nuclear technology, it is far easier to create destructive uses for nanotechnology than constructive ones. Nanotechnology has clear military and terrorist uses, and you need not be suicidal to release a massively destructive nanotechnological device—such devices can be built to be selectively destructive, affecting, for example, only a certain geographical area or a group of people who are genetically distinct.

An immediate consequence of the Faustian bargain in obtaining the great power of nanotechnology is that we run a grave risk—the risk that we might destroy the biosphere on which all life depends.

As Drexler explained:

“Plants” with “leaves” no more efficient than today's solar cells could out-compete real plants, crowding the biosphere with an inedible foliage. Tough omnivorous "bacteria" could out-compete real bacteria: They could spread like blowing pollen, replicate swiftly, and reduce the biosphere to dust in a matter of days. Dangerous replicators could easily be too tough, small, and rapidly spreading to stop—at least if we make no preparation. We have trouble enough controlling viruses and fruit flies.

Among the cognoscenti of nanotechnology, this threat has become known as the “gray goo problem.” Though masses of uncontrolled replicators need not be gray or gooey, the term “gray goo” emphasizes that replicators able to obliterate life might be less inspiring than a single species of crabgrass. They might be superior in an evolutionary sense, but this need not make them valuable.

The gray goo threat makes one thing perfectly clear: We cannot afford certain kinds of accidents with replicating assemblers.

Gray goo would surely be a depressing ending to our human adventure on Earth, far worse than mere fire or ice, and one that could stem from a simple laboratory accident. 6 Oops.

It is most of all the power of destructive self-replication in genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics (GNR) that should give us pause. Self-replication is the modus operandi of genetic engineering, which uses the machinery of the cell to replicate its designs, and the prime danger underlying gray goo in nanotechnology. Stories of run-amok robots like the Borg, replicating or mutating to escape from the ethical constraints imposed on them by their creators, are well established in our science fiction books and movies. It is even possible that self-replication may be more fundamental than we thought, and hence harder—or even impossible—to control. A recent article by Stuart Kauffman in Nature titled “Self-Replication: Even Peptides Do It” discusses the discovery that a 32-amino-acid peptide can “autocatalyse its own synthesis.” We don't know how widespread this ability is, but Kauffman notes that it may hint at “a route to self-reproducing molecular systems on a basis far wider than Watson-Crick base-pairing.” 7

In truth, we have had in hand for years clear warnings of the dangers inherent in widespread knowledge of GNR technologies—of the possibility of knowledge alone enabling mass destruction. But these warnings haven't been widely publicized; the public discussions have been clearly inadequate. There is no profit in publicizing the dangers.

The nuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC) technologies used in 20th-century weapons of mass destruction were and are largely military, developed in government laboratories. In sharp contrast, the 21st-century GNR technologies have clear commercial uses and are being developed almost exclusively by corporate enterprises. In this age of triumphant commercialism, technology—with science as its handmaiden—is delivering a series of almost magical inventions that are the most phenomenally lucrative ever seen. We are aggressively pursuing the promises of these new technologies within the now-unchallenged system of global capitalism and its manifold financial incentives and competitive pressures.

This is the first moment in the history of our planet when any species, by its own voluntary actions, has become a danger to itself—as well as to vast numbers of others.

It might be a familiar progression, transpiring on many worlds—a planet, newly formed, placidly revolves around its star; life slowly forms; a kaleidoscopic procession of creatures evolves; intelligence emerges which, at least up to a point, confers enormous survival value; and then technology is invented. It dawns on them that there are such things as laws of Nature, that these laws can be revealed by experiment, and that knowledge of these laws can be made both to save and to take lives, both on unprecedented scales. Science, they recognize, grants immense powers. In a flash, they create world-altering contrivances. Some planetary civilizations see their way through, place limits on what may and what must not be done, and safely pass through the time of perils. Others, not so lucky or so prudent, perish.

That is Carl Sagan, writing in 1994, in Pale Blue Dot , a book describing his vision of the human future in space. I am only now realizing how deep his insight was, and how sorely I miss, and will miss, his voice. For all its eloquence, Sagan's contribution was not least that of simple common sense—an attribute that, along with humility, many of the leading advocates of the 21st-century technologies seem to lack.

I remember from my childhood that my grandmother was strongly against the overuse of antibiotics. She had worked since before the first World War as a nurse and had a commonsense attitude that taking antibiotics, unless they were absolutely necessary, was bad for you.

It is not that she was an enemy of progress. She saw much progress in an almost 70-year nursing career; my grandfather, a diabetic, benefited greatly from the improved treatments that became available in his lifetime. But she, like many levelheaded people, would probably think it greatly arrogant for us, now, to be designing a robotic “replacement species,” when we obviously have so much trouble making relatively simple things work, and so much trouble managing—or even understanding—ourselves.

I realize now that she had an awareness of the nature of the order of life, and of the necessity of living with and respecting that order. With this respect comes a necessary humility that we, with our early-21st-century chutzpah, lack at our peril. The commonsense view, grounded in this respect, is often right, in advance of the scientific evidence. The clear fragility and inefficiencies of the human-made systems we have built should give us all pause; the fragility of the systems I have worked on certainly humbles me.

We should have learned a lesson from the making of the first atomic bomb and the resulting arms race. We didn't do well then, and the parallels to our current situation are troubling.

The effort to build the first atomic bomb was led by the brilliant physicist J. Robert Oppenheimer. Oppenheimer was not naturally interested in politics but became painfully aware of what he perceived as the grave threat to Western civilization from the Third Reich, a threat surely grave because of the possibility that Hitler might obtain nuclear weapons. Energized by this concern, he brought his strong intellect, passion for physics, and charismatic leadership skills to Los Alamos and led a rapid and successful effort by an incredible collection of great minds to quickly invent the bomb.

What is striking is how this effort continued so naturally after the initial impetus was removed. In a meeting shortly after V-E Day with some physicists who felt that perhaps the effort should stop, Oppenheimer argued to continue. His stated reason seems a bit strange: not because of the fear of large casualties from an invasion of Japan, but because the United Nations, which was soon to be formed, should have foreknowledge of atomic weapons. A more likely reason the project continued is the momentum that had built up—the first atomic test, Trinity, was nearly at hand.

We know that in preparing this first atomic test the physicists proceeded despite a large number of possible dangers. They were initially worried, based on a calculation by Edward Teller, that an atomic explosion might set fire to the atmosphere. A revised calculation reduced the danger of destroying the world to a three-in-a-million chance. (Teller says he was later able to dismiss the prospect of atmospheric ignition entirely.) Oppenheimer, though, was sufficiently concerned about the result of Trinity that he arranged for a possible evacuation of the southwest part of the state of New Mexico. And, of course, there was the clear danger of starting a nuclear arms race.

Within a month of that first, successful test, two atomic bombs destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Some scientists had suggested that the bomb simply be demonstrated, rather than dropped on Japanese cities—saying that this would greatly improve the chances for arms control after the war—but to no avail. With the tragedy of Pearl Harbor still fresh in Americans' minds, it would have been very difficult for President Truman to order a demonstration of the weapons rather than use them as he did—the desire to quickly end the war and save the lives that would have been lost in any invasion of Japan was very strong. Yet the overriding truth was probably very simple: As the physicist Freeman Dyson later said, “The reason that it was dropped was just that nobody had the courage or the foresight to say no.”

It's important to realize how shocked the physicists were in the aftermath of the bombing of Hiroshima, on August 6, 1945. They describe a series of waves of emotion: first, a sense of fulfillment that the bomb worked, then horror at all the people that had been killed, and then a convincing feeling that on no account should another bomb be dropped. Yet of course another bomb was dropped, on Nagasaki, only three days after the bombing of Hiroshima.

In November 1945, three months after the atomic bombings, Oppenheimer stood firmly behind the scientific attitude, saying, “It is not possible to be a scientist unless you believe that the knowledge of the world, and the power which this gives, is a thing which is of intrinsic value to humanity, and that you are using it to help in the spread of knowledge and are willing to take the consequences.”

Oppenheimer went on to work, with others, on the Acheson-Lilienthal report, which, as Richard Rhodes says in his recent book Visions of Technology , “found a way to prevent a clandestine nuclear arms race without resorting to armed world government”; their suggestion was a form of relinquishment of nuclear weapons work by nation-states to an international agency.

This proposal led to the Baruch Plan, which was submitted to the United Nations in June 1946 but never adopted (perhaps because, as Rhodes suggests, Bernard Baruch had “insisted on burdening the plan with conventional sanctions,” thereby inevitably dooming it, even though it would “almost certainly have been rejected by Stalinist Russia anyway”). Other efforts to promote sensible steps toward internationalizing nuclear power to prevent an arms race ran afoul either of US politics and internal distrust, or distrust by the Soviets. The opportunity to avoid the arms race was lost, and very quickly.

Two years later, in 1948, Oppenheimer seemed to have reached another stage in his thinking, saying, “In some sort of crude sense which no vulgarity, no humor, no overstatement can quite extinguish, the physicists have known sin; and this is a knowledge they cannot lose.”

In 1949, the Soviets exploded an atom bomb. By 1955, both the US and the Soviet Union had tested hydrogen bombs suitable for delivery by aircraft. And so the nuclear arms race began.

Nearly 20 years ago, in the documentary The Day After Trinity , Freeman Dyson summarized the scientific attitudes that brought us to the nuclear precipice:

“I have felt it myself. The glitter of nuclear weapons. It is irresistible if you come to them as a scientist. To feel it's there in your hands, to release this energy that fuels the stars, to let it do your bidding. To perform these miracles, to lift a million tons of rock into the sky. It is something that gives people an illusion of illimitable power, and it is, in some ways, responsible for all our troubles—this, what you might call technical arrogance, that overcomes people when they see what they can do with their minds.” 8

Now, as then, we are creators of new technologies and stars of the imagined future, driven—this time by great financial rewards and global competition—despite the clear dangers, hardly evaluating what it may be like to try to live in a world that is the realistic outcome of what we are creating and imagining.

In 1947, The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists began putting a Doomsday Clock on its cover. For more than 50 years, it has shown an estimate of the relative nuclear danger we have faced, reflecting the changing international conditions. The hands on the clock have moved 15 times and today, standing at nine minutes to midnight, reflect continuing and real danger from nuclear weapons. The recent addition of India and Pakistan to the list of nuclear powers has increased the threat of failure of the nonproliferation goal, and this danger was reflected by moving the hands closer to midnight in 1998.

In our time, how much danger do we face, not just from nuclear weapons, but from all of these technologies? How high are the extinction risks?

The philosopher John Leslie has studied this question and concluded that the risk of human extinction is at least 30 percent, while Ray Kurzweil believes we have “a better than even chance of making it through,” with the caveat that he has “always been accused of being an optimist.” 9 Not only are these estimates not encouraging, but they do not include the probability of many horrid outcomes that lie short of extinction.

Faced with such assessments, some serious people are already suggesting that we simply move beyond Earth as quickly as possible. We would colonize the galaxy using von Neumann probes, which hop from star system to star system, replicating as they go. This step will almost certainly be necessary 5 billion years from now (or sooner if our solar system is disastrously impacted by the impending collision of our galaxy with the Andromeda galaxy within the next 3 billion years), but if we take Kurzweil and Moravec at their word it might be necessary by the middle of this century.

What are the moral implications here? If we must move beyond Earth this quickly in order for the species to survive, who accepts the responsibility for the fate of those (most of us, after all) who are left behind? And even if we scatter to the stars, isn't it likely that we may take our problems with us or find, later, that they have followed us? The fate of our species on Earth and our fate in the galaxy seem inextricably linked.

Another idea is to erect a series of shields to defend against each of the dangerous technologies. The Strategic Defense Initiative, proposed by the Reagan administration, was an attempt to design such a shield against the threat of a nuclear attack from the Soviet Union. But as Arthur C. Clarke, who was privy to discussions about the project, observed: “Though it might be possible, at vast expense, to construct local defense systems that would 'only' let through a few percent of ballistic missiles, the much touted idea of a national umbrella was nonsense. Luis Alvarez, perhaps the greatest experimental physicist of this century, remarked to me that the advocates of such schemes were ‘very bright guys with no common sense.’”

Clarke continued: “Looking into my often cloudy crystal ball, I suspect that a total defense might indeed be possible in a century or so. But the technology involved would produce, as a by-product, weapons so terrible that no one would bother with anything as primitive as ballistic missiles.” 10

In Engines of Creation , Eric Drexler proposed that we build an active nanotechnological shield—a form of immune system for the biosphere—to defend against dangerous replicators of all kinds that might escape from laboratories or otherwise be maliciously created. But the shield he proposed would itself be extremely dangerous—nothing could prevent it from developing autoimmune problems and attacking the biosphere itself. 11

Similar difficulties apply to the construction of shields against robotics and genetic engineering. These technologies are too powerful to be shielded against in the time frame of interest; even if it were possible to implement defensive shields, the side effects of their development would be at least as dangerous as the technologies we are trying to protect against.

These possibilities are all thus either undesirable or unachievable or both. The only realistic alternative I see is relinquishment: to limit development of the technologies that are too dangerous, by limiting our pursuit of certain kinds of knowledge.

Yes, I know, knowledge is good, as is the search for new truths. We have been seeking knowledge since ancient times. Aristotle opened his Metaphysics with the simple statement: “All men by nature desire to know.” We have, as a bedrock value in our society, long agreed on the value of open access to information, and recognize the problems that arise with attempts to restrict access to and development of knowledge. In recent times, we have come to revere scientific knowledge.

But despite the strong historical precedents, if open access to and unlimited development of knowledge henceforth puts us all in clear danger of extinction, then common sense demands that we reexamine even these basic, long-held beliefs.

It was Nietzsche who warned us, at the end of the 19th century, not only that God is dead but that “faith in science, which after all exists undeniably, cannot owe its origin to a calculus of utility; it must have originated in spite of the fact that the disutility and dangerousness of the 'will to truth,' of 'truth at any price' is proved to it constantly.” It is this further danger that we now fully face—the consequences of our truth-seeking. The truth that science seeks can certainly be considered a dangerous substitute for God if it is likely to lead to our extinction.

If we could agree, as a species, what we wanted, where we were headed, and why, then we would make our future much less dangerous—then we might understand what we can and should relinquish. Otherwise, we can easily imagine an arms race developing over GNR technologies, as it did with the NBC technologies in the 20th century. This is perhaps the greatest risk, for once such a race begins, it's very hard to end it. This time—unlike during the Manhattan Project—we aren't in a war, facing an implacable enemy that is threatening our civilization; we are driven, instead, by our habits, our desires, our economic system, and our competitive need to know.

I believe that we all wish our course could be determined by our collective values, ethics, and morals. If we had gained more collective wisdom over the past few thousand years, then a dialogue to this end would be more practical, and the incredible powers we are about to unleash would not be nearly so troubling.

One would think we might be driven to such a dialogue by our instinct for self-preservation. Individuals clearly have this desire, yet as a species our behavior seems to be not in our favor. In dealing with the nuclear threat, we often spoke dishonestly to ourselves and to each other, thereby greatly increasing the risks. Whether this was politically motivated, or because we chose not to think ahead, or because when faced with such grave threats we acted irrationally out of fear, I do not know, but it does not bode well.

The new Pandora's boxes of genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics are almost open, yet we seem hardly to have noticed. Ideas can't be put back in a box; unlike uranium or plutonium, they don't need to be mined and refined, and they can be freely copied. Once they are out, they are out. Churchill remarked, in a famous left-handed compliment, that the American people and their leaders “invariably do the right thing, after they have examined every other alternative.” In this case, however, we must act more presciently, as to do the right thing only at last may be to lose the chance to do it at all.

As Thoreau said, “We do not ride on the railroad; it rides upon us”; and this is what we must fight, in our time. The question is, indeed, Which is to be master? Will we survive our technologies?

We are being propelled into this new century with no plan, no control, no brakes. Have we already gone too far down the path to alter course? I don't believe so, but we aren't trying yet, and the last chance to assert control—the fail-safe point—is rapidly approaching. We have our first pet robots, as well as commercially available genetic engineering techniques, and our nanoscale techniques are advancing rapidly. While the development of these technologies proceeds through a number of steps, it isn't necessarily the case—as happened in the Manhattan Project and the Trinity test—that the last step in proving a technology is large and hard. The breakthrough to wild self-replication in robotics, genetic engineering, or nanotechnology could come suddenly, reprising the surprise we felt when we learned of the cloning of a mammal.

And yet I believe we do have a strong and solid basis for hope. Our attempts to deal with weapons of mass destruction in the last century provide a shining example of relinquishment for us to consider: the unilateral US abandonment, without preconditions, of the development of biological weapons. This relinquishment stemmed from the realization that while it would take an enormous effort to create these terrible weapons, they could from then on easily be duplicated and fall into the hands of rogue nations or terrorist groups.

The clear conclusion was that we would create additional threats to ourselves by pursuing these weapons, and that we would be more secure if we did not pursue them. We have embodied our relinquishment of biological and chemical weapons in the 1972 Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) and the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). 12

As for the continuing sizable threat from nuclear weapons, which we have lived with now for more than 50 years, the US Senate's recent rejection of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty makes it clear relinquishing nuclear weapons will not be politically easy. But we have a unique opportunity, with the end of the Cold War, to avert a multipolar arms race. Building on the BWC and CWC relinquishments, successful abolition of nuclear weapons could help us build toward a habit of relinquishing dangerous technologies. (Actually, by getting rid of all but 100 nuclear weapons worldwide—roughly the total destructive power of World War II and a considerably easier task—we could eliminate this extinction threat. 13

Verifying relinquishment will be a difficult problem, but not an unsolvable one. We are fortunate to have already done a lot of relevant work in the context of the BWC and other treaties. Our major task will be to apply this to technologies that are naturally much more commercial than military. The substantial need here is for transparency, as difficulty of verification is directly proportional to the difficulty of distinguishing relinquished from legitimate activities.

I frankly believe that the situation in 1945 was simpler than the one we now face: The nuclear technologies were reasonably separable into commercial and military uses, and monitoring was aided by the nature of atomic tests and the ease with which radioactivity could be measured. Research on military applications could be performed at national laboratories such as Los Alamos, with the results kept secret as long as possible.

The GNR technologies do not divide clearly into commercial and military uses; given their potential in the market, it's hard to imagine pursuing them only in national laboratories. With their widespread commercial pursuit, enforcing relinquishment will require a verification regime similar to that for biological weapons, but on an unprecedented scale. This, inevitably, will raise tensions between our individual privacy and desire for proprietary information, and the need for verification to protect us all. We will undoubtedly encounter strong resistance to this loss of privacy and freedom of action.

Verifying the relinquishment of certain GNR technologies will have to occur in cyberspace as well as at physical facilities. The critical issue will be to make the necessary transparency acceptable in a world of proprietary information, presumably by providing new forms of protection for intellectual property.

Verifying compliance will also require that scientists and engineers adopt a strong code of ethical conduct, resembling the Hippocratic oath, and that they have the courage to whistleblow as necessary, even at high personal cost. This would answer the call—50 years after Hiroshima—by the Nobel laureate Hans Bethe, one of the most senior of the surviving members of the Manhattan Project, that all scientists “cease and desist from work creating, developing, improving, and manufacturing nuclear weapons and other weapons of potential mass destruction.” 14  In the 21st century, this requires vigilance and personal responsibility by those who would work on both NBC and GNR technologies to avoid implementing weapons of mass destruction and knowledge-enabled mass destruction.

Thoreau also said that we will be “rich in proportion to the number of things which we can afford to let alone.” We each seek to be happy, but it would seem worthwhile to question whether we need to take such a high risk of total destruction to gain yet more knowledge and yet more things; common sense says that there is a limit to our material needs—and that certain knowledge is too dangerous and is best forgone.

Neither should we pursue near immortality without considering the costs, without considering the commensurate increase in the risk of extinction. Immortality, while perhaps the original, is certainly not the only possible utopian dream.

I recently had the good fortune to meet the distinguished author and scholar Jacques Attali, whose book Lignes d'horizons ( Millennium , in the English translation) helped inspire the Java and Jini approach to the coming age of pervasive computing, as previously described in this magazine. In his new book Fraternités , Attali describes how our dreams of utopia have changed over time:

“At the dawn of societies, men saw their passage on Earth as nothing more than a labyrinth of pain, at the end of which stood a door leading, via their death, to the company of gods and to Eternity . With the Hebrews and then the Greeks, some men dared free themselves from theological demands and dream of an ideal City where Liberty would flourish. Others, noting the evolution of the market society, understood that the liberty of some would entail the alienation of others, and they sought Equality .”

Jacques helped me understand how these three different utopian goals exist in tension in our society today. He goes on to describe a fourth utopia, Fraternity , whose foundation is altruism. Fraternity alone associates individual happiness with the happiness of others, affording the promise of self-sustainment.

This crystallized for me my problem with Kurzweil's dream. A technological approach to Eternity—near immortality through robotics—may not be the most desirable utopia, and its pursuit brings clear dangers. Maybe we should rethink our utopian choices.

Where can we look for a new ethical basis to set our course? I have found the ideas in the book Ethics for the New Millennium , by the Dalai Lama, to be very helpful. As is perhaps well known but little heeded, the Dalai Lama argues that the most important thing is for us to conduct our lives with love and compassion for others, and that our societies need to develop a stronger notion of universal responsibility and of our interdependency; he proposes a standard of positive ethical conduct for individuals and societies that seems consonant with Attali's Fraternity utopia.

The Dalai Lama further argues that we must understand what it is that makes people happy, and acknowledge the strong evidence that neither material progress nor the pursuit of the power of knowledge is the key—that there are limits to what science and the scientific pursuit alone can do.

Our Western notion of happiness seems to come from the Greeks, who defined it as “the exercise of vital powers along lines of excellence in a life affording them scope.” 15

Clearly, we need to find meaningful challenges and sufficient scope in our lives if we are to be happy in whatever is to come. But I believe we must find alternative outlets for our creative forces, beyond the culture of perpetual economic growth; this growth has largely been a blessing for several hundred years, but it has not brought us unalloyed happiness, and we must now choose between the pursuit of unrestricted and undirected growth through science and technology and the clear accompanying dangers.

It is now more than a year since my first encounter with Ray Kurzweil and John Searle. I see around me cause for hope in the voices for caution and relinquishment and in those people I have discovered who are as concerned as I am about our current predicament. I feel, too, a deepened sense of personal responsibility—not for the work I have already done, but for the work that I might yet do, at the confluence of the sciences.

But many other people who know about the dangers still seem strangely silent. When pressed, they trot out the “this is nothing new” riposte—as if awareness of what could happen is response enough. They tell me, There are universities filled with bioethicists who study this stuff all day long. They say, All this has been written about before, and by experts. They complain, Your worries and your arguments are already old hat.

I don't know where these people hide their fear. As an architect of complex systems I enter this arena as a generalist. But should this diminish my concerns? I am aware of how much has been written about, talked about, and lectured about so authoritatively. But does this mean it has reached people? Does this mean we can discount the dangers before us?

Knowing is not a rationale for not acting. Can we doubt that knowledge has become a weapon we wield against ourselves?

The experiences of the atomic scientists clearly show the need to take personal responsibility, the danger that things will move too fast, and the way in which a process can take on a life of its own. We can, as they did, create insurmountable problems in almost no time flat. We must do more thinking up front if we are not to be similarly surprised and shocked by the consequences of our inventions.

My continuing professional work is on improving the reliability of software. Software is a tool, and as a toolbuilder I must struggle with the uses to which the tools I make are put. I have always believed that making software more reliable, given its many uses, will make the world a safer and better place; if I were to come to believe the opposite, then I would be morally obligated to stop this work. I can now imagine such a day may come.

This all leaves me not angry but at least a bit melancholic. Henceforth, for me, progress will be somewhat bittersweet.

Do you remember the beautiful penultimate scene in Manhattan where Woody Allen is lying on his couch and talking into a tape recorder? He is writing a short story about people who are creating unnecessary, neurotic problems for themselves, because it keeps them from dealing with more unsolvable, terrifying problems about the universe.

He leads himself to the question, “Why is life worth living?” and to consider what makes it worthwhile for him: Groucho Marx, Willie Mays, the second movement of the Jupiter Symphony, Louis Armstrong's recording of “Potato Head Blues,” Swedish movies, Flaubert's Sentimental Education, Marlon Brando, Frank Sinatra, the apples and pears by Cézanne, the crabs at Sam Wo's, and, finally, the showstopper: his love Tracy's face.

Each of us has our precious things, and as we care for them we locate the essence of our humanity. In the end, it is because of our great capacity for caring that I remain optimistic we will confront the dangerous issues now before us.

My immediate hope is to participate in a much larger discussion of the issues raised here, with people from many different backgrounds, in settings not predisposed to fear or favor technology for its own sake.

As a start, I have twice raised many of these issues at events sponsored by the Aspen Institute and have separately proposed that the American Academy of Arts and Sciences take them up as an extension of its work with the Pugwash Conferences. (These have been held since 1957 to discuss arms control, especially of nuclear weapons, and to formulate workable policies.)

It's unfortunate that the Pugwash meetings started only well after the nuclear genie was out of the bottle—roughly 15 years too late. We are also getting a belated start on seriously addressing the issues around 21st-century technologies—the prevention of knowledge-enabled mass destruction—and further delay seems unacceptable.

So I'm still searching; there are many more things to learn. Whether we are to succeed or fail, to survive or fall victim to these technologies, is not yet decided. I'm up late again—it's almost 6 am. I'm trying to imagine some better answers, to break the spell and free them from the stone.

• The passage Kurzweil quotes is from Kaczynski's Unabomber Manifesto, which was published jointly, under duress, by The New York Times and The Washington Post to attempt to bring his campaign of terror to an end. I agree with David Gelernter, who said about their decision: “It was a tough call for the newspapers. To say yes would be giving in to terrorism, and for all they knew he was lying anyway. On the other hand, to say yes might stop the killing. There was also a chance that someone would read the tract and get a hunch about the author; and that is exactly what happened. The suspect's brother read it, and it rang a bell. “I would have told them not to publish. I'm glad they didn't ask me. I guess.” ( Drawing Life: Surviving the Unabomber . Free Press, 1997: 120.)  
• Garrett, Laurie. The Coming Plague: Newly Emerging Diseases in a World Out of Balance . Penguin, 1994: 47-52, 414, 419, 452.  
• Isaac Asimov described what became the most famous view of ethical rules for robot behavior in his book I, Robot in 1950, in his Three Laws of Robotics: 1. A robot may not injure a human being, or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm. 2. A robot must obey the orders given it by human beings, except where such orders would conflict with the First Law. 3. A robot must protect its own existence, as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law.  
• Michelangelo wrote a sonnet that begins: Non ha l' ottimo artista alcun concetto Ch' un marmo solo in sè non circonscriva Col suo soverchio; e solo a quello arriva La man che ubbidisce all' intelleto . Stone translates this as: The best of artists hath no thought to show which the rough stone in its superfluous shell doth not include; to break the marble spell is all the hand that serves the brain can do . Stone describes the process: “He was not working from his drawings or clay models; they had all been put away. He was carving from the images in his mind. His eyes and hands knew where every line, curve, mass must emerge, and at what depth in the heart of the stone to create the low relief.” ( The Agony and the Ecstasy . Doubleday, 1961: 6, 144.)  
• First Foresight Conference on Nanotechnology in October 1989, a talk titled “The Future of Computation.” Published in Crandall, B. C. and James Lewis, editors. Nanotechnology: Research and Perspectives . MIT Press, 1992: 269.  
• In his 1963 novel Cat's Cradle , Kurt Vonnegut imagined a gray-goo-like accident where a form of ice called ice-nine, which becomes solid at a much higher temperature, freezes the oceans.  
• Kauffman, Stuart. “Self-replication: Even Peptides Do It.” Nature, 382, August 8, 1996: 496.   
• Else, Jon. The Day After Trinity: J. Robert Oppenheimer and The Atomic Bomb.  
• This estimate is in Leslie's book The End of the World: The Science and Ethics of Human Extinction , where he notes that the probability of extinction is substantially higher if we accept Brandon Carter's Doomsday Argument, which is, briefly, that “we ought to have some reluctance to believe that we are very exceptionally early, for instance in the earliest 0.001 percent, among all humans who will ever have lived. This would be some reason for thinking that humankind will not survive for many more centuries, let alone colonize the galaxy. Carter's doomsday argument doesn't generate any risk estimates just by itself. It is an argument for revising the estimates which we generate when we consider various possible dangers.” (Routledge, 1996: 1, 3, 145.)  
• Clarke, Arthur C. “Presidents, Experts, and Asteroids.” Science , June 5, 1998. Reprinted as “Science and Society” in Greetings, Carbon-Based Bipeds! Collected Essays, 1934-1998 . St. Martin's Press, 1999: 526.  
• And, as David Forrest suggests in his paper “Regulating Nanotechnology Development,” “If we used strict liability as an alternative to regulation it would be impossible for any developer to internalize the cost of the risk (destruction of the biosphere), so theoretically the activity of developing nanotechnology should never be undertaken.” Forrest's analysis leaves us with only government regulation to protect us—not a comforting thought.  
• Meselson, Matthew. “The Problem of Biological Weapons.” Presentation to the 1,818th Stated Meeting of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, January 13, 1999.  
• Doty, Paul. “The Forgotten Menace: Nuclear Weapons Stockpiles Still Represent the Biggest Threat to Civilization.” Nature , 402, December 9, 1999: 583.  
• See also Hans Bethe's 1997 letter to President Clinton.  
• Hamilton, Edith. The Greek Way . W. W. Norton & Co., 1942: 35.

Bill Joy, cofounder and Chief Scientist of Sun Microsystems, was cochair of the presidential commission on the future of IT research, and is coauthor of The Java Language Specification. His work on the Jini pervasive computing technology was featured in Wired 6.08 .

LESSON PLAN FOR ENGLISH TEACHERS

The future of reading.

Level: Upper-intermediate (B2-C1)

Type of English: General English

Tags: environment and nature science and technology gadgets and inventions phrasal verbs Video talk

Publication date: 07/05/2012

In this lesson, students learn some common verbs for describing how to physically interact with iPads, iPhones and other touchscreen devices. The lesson is based on a video demonstration of a new type of interactive e-book developed for the iPhone and iPad. Students watch the demonstration and complete the vocabulary exercises. The topic of interactive e-books is discussed at the end of the lesson. Students also have the opportunity to talk about global warming issues, which is the subject of the book ‘Our Choice’ by Al Gore presented in the video clip.

This lesson should be of particular interest to students who regularly use touchscreen devices. Additional video files are provided to demonstrate a few of the multi-touch gestures presented in Exercise 2 (source: Wikipedia) .

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In this lesson, students learn some common verbs for describing how to physically interact with iPads, iPhones, and other touchscreen devices. The lesson is based on a video demonstration of a new type of interactive e-book developed for the iPhone and iPad. Students watch the demonstration and complete the vocabulary exercises. The topic of interactive e-books is discussed at the end of the lesson. Students also have the opportunity to talk about global warming issues, which is the subject of the book ‘Our Choice’ by Al Gore presented in the video clip.

This lesson should be of particular interest to students who regularly use touchscreen devices. Additional video files are provided to demonstrate a few of the multi-touch gestures presented in Exercise 2  (source: Wikipedia) .

Linguahouse.com is in no way affiliated with, authorized, maintained, sponsored, or endorsed by TED Conferences LLC.

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How to Use the Future Continuous Tense: Examples and Exercises

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Olivia Drake

Have you ever struggled with using the future continuous tense in your writing or speaking? This tense can be tricky to master, but it’s a valuable tool for expressing actions that will be in progress at a specific time in the future. In this article, we’ll explore the basics of this tense, including its formation, usage, and common examples. We’ll also provide you with a variety of exercises so you can test your knowledge and practice using the future continuous tense in context. By the end of this article, you’ll be a master of this tense and ready to use it confidently in your writing and conversations. So let’s get started!

How to Form the Future Continuous Tense

The future continuous tense is formed by using the auxiliary verb “will” followed by “be” and the present participle of the main verb, “-ing”. The structure of a future continuous sentence is as follows:

Subject + will + be + present participle (-ing) form of the main verb

For example, “I will be studying” or “She will be working”. This tense is used to describe an action that will be in progress at a specific time in the future, and it is often used to talk about plans, arrangements, or predictions.

It’s important to note that the future continuous tense is different from  the future simple tense , which is formed by using “will” followed by the base form of the verb. The simple future tense is used to describe a future event or action that is not in progress, such as “I will study later” or “She will work tomorrow”.

To make a negative sentence in the future continuous tense, we add “not” after “will”. For example, “I will not be studying” or “She will not be working”. To make a question in the future continuous tense, we invert the subject and “will” and add the present participle of the main verb. For example, “Will you be studying?” or “Will she be working?”

Examples of the Future Continuous Tense in Use

Now that we know how to form the future continuous tense, let’s look at some examples of how it can be used in sentences.

Using the Future Continuous Tense for Plans and Arrangements

The future continuous tense is often used to talk about plans and arrangements that will be in progress at a specific time in the future. For example:

• I will be studying for my exam tomorrow afternoon.
• She will be working on a project all day next Wednesday.
• They will be traveling to Europe for two weeks in July.

Notice how each of these sentences describes an action that will be in progress at a specific time in the future. The future continuous tense is a great way to express plans and arrangements in a clear and concise way.

Using the Future Continuous Tense for Predictions and Assumptions

The future continuous tense can also be used to make predictions or assumptions about the future. For example:

• By this time tomorrow, he will be flying to Paris.
• They will be celebrating their anniversary next week.
• In a few years, we will be living in a different city.

These sentences express a degree of certainty about the future based on the speaker’s predictions or assumptions. The future continuous tense is a useful tool for making future predictions in a confident and assertive way.

As we saw earlier, the future continuous tense is often used to talk about plans and arrangements that will be in progress at a specific time in the future. Let’s look at some more examples of how this tense can be used in this context.

• I will be working on my project all day tomorrow.
• They will be attending a conference in New York next month.
• She will be cooking dinner for her family tonight.

In each of these sentences, the speaker is describing an action that will be in progress at a specific time in the future. By using the future continuous tense, the speaker is able to convey a sense of commitment and dedication to the planned action.

The future continuous tense can also be used to make predictions or assumptions about the future. Let’s look at some more examples of how this tense can be used in this context.

• By next year, she will be running her own business.
• They will be retiring in a few years.
• In the future, we will be using more renewable energy sources.

In each of these sentences, the speaker is expressing a prediction or assumption about the future. By using the future continuous tense, the speaker is able to convey a sense of certainty and conviction about their prediction or assumption.

Exercises to Practice Using the Future Continuous Tense

Now that we’ve explored the basics of the future continuous tense, it’s time to put our knowledge into practice. Here are some exercises to help you practice using the future continuous tense in context:

• Complete the following sentences with the correct form of the future continuous tense:- By this time tomorrow, I ________ (study) for my exam.- They ________ (travel) to Europe next summer.- In the future, we ________ (use) more renewable energy sources.
• Write three sentences using the future continuous tense to describe plans or arrangements you have for the future.
• Write three sentences using the future continuous tense to make predictions or assumptions about the future.

These exercises will help you reinforce your understanding of the future continuous tense and give you the opportunity to practice using it in context.br/>br/>

Common Mistakes to Avoid When Using the Future Continuous Tense

While the future continuous tense is a useful tool for expressing actions that will be in progress at a specific time in the future, there are some common mistakes that people make when using this tense. Here are a few things to keep in mind:

• Make sure you use the correct form of the verb “be”. Remember that the future continuous tense is formed by using “will” followed by “be” and the present participle of the main verb, “-ing”.
• Be careful not to confuse the future continuous tense with the simple future tense. Remember that the simple future tense is used to describe a future event or action that is not in progress.
• Remember to use the future continuous tense to express actions that will be in progress at a specific time in the future, such as plans, arrangements, or predictions.

By avoiding these common mistakes, you’ll be able to use the future continuous tense effectively and confidently.br/>br/>

Tips for Mastering the Future Continuous Tense

If you want to master the future continuous tense, here are some tips to keep in mind:

• Practice, practice, practice! The more you use the future continuous tense in context, the more comfortable you will become with it.
• Read and listen to examples of the future continuous tense in use. This will help you understand how this tense is used in real-life situations.
• Pay attention to the context in which the future continuous tense is used. This will help you understand how to use this tense effectively in different situations.

By following these tips, you’ll be well on your way to mastering the future continuous tense.

Differences Between the Future Continuous Tense and Other Future Tenses

In addition to the future continuous tense, there are other future tenses that you may encounter in English. Here’s a quick overview of some of the key differences between these tenses:

• Simple future tense : As we saw earlier, the simple future tense is formed by using “will” followed by the base form of the verb. This tense is used to describe a future event or action that is not in progress.
• Future perfect tense : The future perfect tense is formed by using “will have” followed by the past participle of the main verb. This tense is used to describe an action that will be completed before a specific time in the future.
• Future perfect continuous tense : The future perfect continuous tense is formed by using “will have been” followed by the present participle of the main verb. This tense is used to describe an action that will have been in progress for a specific amount of time before a specific time in the future.

By understanding the differences between these future tenses, you’ll be able to choose the right tense for the right situation.

The future continuous tense is a valuable tool for expressing actions that will be in progress at a specific time in the future. By mastering this tense, you’ll be able to communicate your plans, arrangements, and predictions with clarity and confidence. Remember to practice using the future continuous tense in context, and pay attention to the context in which this tense is used. With time and practice, you’ll be able to use the future continuous tense effectively and naturally in your writing and conversations.

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Future tenses

• First Online: 26 May 2024

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The future of the universe

Astrophysicist Risa Wechsler studies the evolution of the universe.

She says that our understanding of how the universe formed and how it will change over time is changing as new technologies for seeing and measuring space come online, like a new high-resolution camera that can quickly map the full sky to see everything that moves, or new spectrographs that will map the cosmos in 3D and enable us to get new clues about the elusive dark matter. You can’t understand the universe or our presence in it until you understand dark matter, Wechsler tells host Russ Altman on this episode of Stanford Engineering’s The Future of Everything podcast.

Listen on your favorite podcast platform:  

Related : Risa Wechsler , professor of physics and of particle physics and astrophysics

[00:00:00] Risa Wechsler: We get to ask and try to answer the biggest questions that we have. So these are questions like how did the universe evolve from early times until the present day? What is it made of? And how did galaxies form?

[00:00:21] Russ Altman: This is Stanford Engineering's The Future of Everything podcast and I'm your host Russ Altman. If you're enjoying the show or if it's helped you in any way, please consider rating and reviewing to share your thoughts. Your input is extremely valuable and helps others discover what the show is all about.

[00:00:37] Today, Professor Risa Wechsler will tell us about the universe, cosmology, how galaxies form, how they evolve, and how we're measuring them. It's the future of the universe. 

[00:00:48] Before we get started, another reminder to rate and review the show, particularly if you've learned something new, or found it helpful in any way.

[00:01:03] For thousands of years, we humans have looked up to the skies and wondered about the universe. We see planets and the Moon, but we also see stars and galaxies far, far away. We don't really understand the details of how big is the universe? Are we at the center of the universe or are we near the edge? How do you even measure that?

[00:01:24] Well, Professor Risa Wechsler from Stanford University is a professor of physics, particle physics, and astrophysics. And she is an expert at studying the universe, how it's expanding, and how galaxies within the universe evolve. She's especially interested in the galaxy that we live in, the Milky Way galaxy, my personal favorite galaxy.

[00:01:46] Risa, you study the universe and the galaxies within the universe. What are the big questions that your group is struggling with these days? 

[00:01:56] Risa Wechsler: Yeah, so, you know, I got into um, astrophysics and cosmology because we get to ask and try to answer the biggest questions that we have. So these are questions like how did the universe evolve from early times until the present day? What is it made of and how did galaxies form? So big picture, those are the questions that I have been interested in and continue to be interested in. And um, we have a lot of exciting tools that we, that my group is using to try to answer those questions. 

[00:02:30] Russ Altman: Great. So let's get right into the tools. 'Cause I think, I mean, we could start with a lot of definitions and I'm sure we're going to have to define some terms. But let's just go with, tell us about some of the technologies and what are you measuring and how are you looking at these galaxies, uh, and the extent of the universe?

[00:02:46] Risa Wechsler: Yeah, that's great. I mean, one of the things that I'm really excited about right now at this moment is that we have a bunch of surveys that either have just come online or are about to come online that are gonna be able to map the universe substantially better than we have been able to do before. So one of those that we're playing a big role here in, at Stanford and SLAC is called the Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time. 

[00:03:17] Russ Altman: Okay.

[00:03:17] Risa Wechsler: This is the largest camera that has ever been built. It's a three point two gigapixel camera. Um, and, uh, we actually, uh, just put it in the box last week, um, up at SLAC and are shipping it to Chile very soon. Um, and that camera is exciting because it's going to survey the entire Southern sky, essentially every three nights, over ten years, it'll take more than eight hundred pictures of each patch of the sky with this incredibly precise camera. 

[00:03:47] Russ Altman: Yes.

[00:03:48] Risa Wechsler: And that's going to allow us to make, um, you know, a better map than we ever have before. And that's just one of the instruments that we now have, um, or will have in the next few years to make these kinds of maps. So in my group, what we're particularly interested in is essentially how do we use the information from all of these maps, um, different kinds of resolution, different kinds of data, different fields of view, uh, that go to different depths. And put them all together in essentially a self-consistent picture for how the universe evolved, um, using computer simulations and modeling to try to, uh, you know, help us piece together the entire evolution of the universe and what it's made of.

[00:04:37] Russ Altman: Okay, so like great. So that was great because now I have a million questions. First of all, what does a map mean to you? So I think about maps, I think about maybe a 2D map of the of roads and streets and google map. Sometimes you can imagine a 3D map like of the universe, of the solar system with the Sun, the planets are going around it.

[00:04:57] So when you say a map of the universe, is it three dimensional coordinates? I'm guessing maybe not, but maybe yes. Tell me what it looks like? 

[00:05:05] Risa Wechsler: Yeah, that's a perfect question and a perfect introduction to these different kinds of measurements that we can make. 

[00:05:12] So, uh, you can think of most of the measurements we make, it's a little bit more complicated than this, but you can think of most of the measurements we make as either a 2D map that can give you some fuzzy information in the third dimension, or a quite precise 3D map. And, um, the way we get, so when you take a picture, you basically have a 2D map, um, the, so the way you get that third dimension, which of course we want, because what's super exciting in the universe is when you look far away, you are also looking back in time. So the further away we can look and the more precisely we can pin down what that third dimension is, the better we can really make that third map and go, you know, ideally back to the very early stages of the universe when galaxies first started to form.

[00:06:03] Russ Altman: And just to clarify, just to, sorry to interrupt, but the reasons that it's looking back in time is because light takes a certain amount of time to reach us and so that the things that are farthest away sent their light to us the longest time ago. And so the farthest ones are kind of the oldest, and that's why.

[00:06:21] Risa Wechsler: That's exactly right. I mean, we have this wonderful, um, happy fact of physics that comes from general relativity that light has a very specific and fast but finite speed. And so even when we look at the Sun, it, that, that light from the Sun is not emitted right now. It was emitted about eight minutes ago.

[00:06:42] When we look, uh, you know, when we look very far away, we can start to see light that was emitted more than thirteen billion years ago. So, that's why we, uh, when we look far away, uh, we are looking back in time. So, in order to get that third dimension, um, the most common tool that astronomers use is something called spectroscopy.

[00:07:03] So, we essentially have two different kinds of, um, measurements we make. One is basically pictures, imaging. And the other is spectroscopy, where you, uh, where you take maybe a fiber or a slit and you disperse the light as a function of wavelength. So then you get, um, you get the intensity of light as a function of wavelength. That's what astronomers call a spectrum. And because, uh, light that's moving away from you is actually shifted to the red, we measure something that astronomers call a redshift. 

[00:07:34] Russ Altman: This is just like the trains, right? This is what we learned in high school. The train that's going away from you gets lower in sound and the one that's coming towards you has a different change in the sound. And that same thing happens with the lights from the stars. 

[00:07:48] Risa Wechsler: That's exactly right, from stars, or galaxies, or quasars. And so any, so that light gets shifted and then there's some typical features that come from, you know, transitions in elements. Oxygen, for example, has some transitions that, you know, we could even measure in the lab. When we see that at a different wavelength than we see it on earth, we know that it's moving away from us. 

[00:08:11] Russ Altman: Gotcha. 

[00:08:11] Risa Wechsler: And one of the projects that I'm involved in, uh, is called DESI, the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument. This project has now taken spectra of more than a factor of twenty, uh, than all instruments before. So we now have, I think, forty or fifty million, um, redshifts of galaxies and stars and quasars. And that's a new way to actually make 3D maps and not just 2D maps. So you can't go as deep with that spectroscopy. So we actually do both of these things, uh, together and in concert and we try to put them together. So that we can make really deep 2D maps and then also, uh, these really nice 3D maps as well. 

[00:08:56] Russ Altman: Great, okay. So we have a little bit of a sense of how these measurements and it's great because it's a common, not surprisingly, it's a combination of the images in 2D plus the spectroscopy and you're getting 3D information. But let's get to the fun part. Uh, and I have questions about galaxies, but like, tell me about the universe. Like where are we? So we're in the Milky Way galaxy, if I understand correctly. 

[00:09:18] Risa Wechsler: Yeah.

[00:09:18] Russ Altman: Are we at the edge of the universe? Are we in the middle of it? And what is the shape? Should I think of it as uniform? Like a, just a bunch of points in space, like a fog of clouds or is it a much more interesting non like blob of matter? So paint a picture if you can. And I know this is an incredibly unfair question, but welcome to The Future of Everything. 

[00:09:39] Risa Wechsler: No, it's a great question. Okay. So the first thing you need to know is that the universe is about thirteen point eight billion years old. And the other key thing that you need to know about the universe is, thirteen point eight billion years ago, the universe was very hot, and very dense, and very smooth. And it was definitely smaller than it is today. But we don't have any idea how big it is. And in fact, we don't even know whether it's finite or infinite. So it's a very strange thing, whereas everyone wants to know the answer to your question of where are we in the universe?

[00:10:18] As far as we know, the universe whether or not it's finite or infinite, it is way, way, way, way bigger than the part of the universe that we can see. So, for those purposes, there is no edge, as far as we know, there is no edge, there is no center. Um, we are not at the center except for that we are at the center of our observable universe because we, because, that's we are the observer.

[00:10:46] Russ Altman: Right, right.

[00:10:47] Risa Wechsler: And so we can see in a sphere around us, that's thirteen point eight billion light years away, that's what, that's the universe we can see. And we call that the observable universe. That's essentially the edge of, um, how far light could have traveled to us. 

[00:11:06] Russ Altman: Yup.

[00:11:06] Risa Wechsler: From the beginning of the universe. 

[00:11:08] Russ Altman: But importantly, we do see no matter what direction we look, do we see stuff? Because that means conceptually, we're not at least conceptually, it seems to me at an edge. If we can look in every direction and see something. 

[00:11:20] Risa Wechsler: That's right. And you asked if it was the same in all directions. And the answer to that question is it depends on the scale. So if I look it to, so on large scales, the answer is yes. Incredibly precisely the same in all directions. There is stuff in all directions and it is essentially the same, actually more than you would even expect. On small scales it's different. The universe is very, very clumpy on small scales because we had a process in the early universe, which we think actually came from quantum fluctuations, which created little parts where the universe was a tiny bit denser and little parts where the universe was a tiny bit less dense.

[00:12:01] And most of what has been happening over the last thirteen point eight billion years, is those places that had a little bit of extra stuff to begin with, got a lot more stuff now. And so any place that you're in a galaxy is a place that started with a little bit more stuff and eventually collapsed into a galaxy. 

[00:12:19] Russ Altman: Well, let's go to galaxies.

[00:12:22] Risa Wechsler: Great. 

[00:12:23] Russ Altman: Tell me about a galaxy. I know you study galaxy formation. You said already that you study galaxy evolution. Talk to me about galaxies. 

[00:12:31] Risa Wechsler: Yeah, so okay. Most of the universe is not made of the same stuff that we are or the same stuff that galaxies are, which is mostly stars and gas, mostly hydrogen gas. Most of the universe is actually made of dark matter and I'm sure we'll get back to that. But what you can think of is that in the early universe there was dark matter and there was hydrogen and a little bit of helium.

[00:12:56] Russ Altman: Okay.

[00:12:57] Risa Wechsler: And they were pretty much evenly distributed with a little bit of these tiny fluctuations that were created early on. The key thing that's different between dark matter and normal matter. And I'm getting into dark matter because we actually have to understand dark matter to understand galaxy formations. 

[00:13:16] Russ Altman: You just talked about a dark matter survey or something a few minutes ago, so clearly it's on your mind. 

[00:13:23] Risa Wechsler: We're going to get back to that. Um, so the key difference is that gas, when gas particles hit each other, they cool down, they lose energy. They can, you know, they can emit energy and cool down. That doesn't happen with dark matter as far as we understand. So you have a clump of stuff, which is both dark matter, and gas and eventually the gas particles sink to the center of that clump of stuff. And once they sink to the center they can start to cool and they can start to form galaxies.

[00:13:55] This process happens really early on as we now actually have new images from the James Webb Space Telescope that are further back in time than we've ever seen before and we know that we're starting to form galaxies already in the first basically a hundred, few hundred million years of the universe.

[00:14:16] So that's when it starts, but it happens in this, um, sort of hierarchical process where you start with only the most dense regions of the universe that can start to form galaxies. And then over time, more and more regions, uh, get collapsed enough that they can start to form stars and they merge together and grow over time so that every single galaxy, like the Milky Way, is actually comes from the merger of hundreds of smaller things over the last thirteen point, thirteen billion years or so.

[00:14:49] Russ Altman: And it sounds like you've created a typology of galaxies because I'm looking through your work, I see mentions of satellite galaxies, dwarf galaxies, lots of different kinds of galaxies. I don't know if these are ones that you should tell us about. But it's interesting to me because it sounds like that evolution that you just described, that formation and evolution can take different paths.

[00:15:11] Risa Wechsler: Yeah. Well, so the way I think about this is actually fundamentally, I told you in the beginning that what I want to do most of all is put observations of galaxies into sort of like a unified framework of how we understand how the whole universe formed. So there are lots of experts who think specifically about one type of galaxy or another type of galaxy. That's not me. I like to think about all galaxies at the same time. Although I do have a sweet spot in my heart for these tiny, tiny galaxies, um, that we might talk about later. So galaxies can, um, so they form in these clumps of dark matter. The masses of the dark matter clumps that they form in are everywhere from maybe a few hundred million times the mass of the Sun, um, all the way up to ten to the fifteen times the mass of the Sun.

[00:16:03] Russ Altman: Okay, so that's a huge range. 

[00:16:05] Risa Wechsler: So yeah, like a trillion times, right? So it's a, it's like seven orders of magnitude that you actually, are the dark matter clumps that you can form a galaxy. And so because of that, basically because it's a very wide mass scale and the gas processes are different over that mass scale, you get galaxies that look different.

[00:16:28] You can think of them as forming in different environments. Some, it's like some galaxies you can imagine forming in dense places like cities and some galaxies, you know, form out in the countryside where there's not a lot of stuff around. Those are the kinds of things that can lead to differences in what galaxies look like.

[00:16:45] Now, this thing about satellite galaxies is an important piece because what I mentioned is that the way galaxies form is that they start in these initial density peaks and they merge and grow over time. They merge and grow, it's like, you know, it's like the Sun rotating or the earth rotating around the Sun or even the Moon, uh, you know, circling the earth, galaxies have satellites similar to that. And they, they kind of come in and they get accreted, and they eventually get destroyed and merge into the main thing, but that takes quite a bit of time. 

[00:17:20] Russ Altman: But also, so many of the principles, if I'm understanding, many of the principles of gravity apply even at the scale so that if you have a big galaxy and there's a little one and if it's close enough, it might, and forgive my language, it might start circulating around that big gallery, galaxy in some sense.

[00:17:36] Risa Wechsler: That's right. And actually, this is the amazing thing about gravity. I mean, gravity is a theory that we understand incredibly well. It is the only thing that matters on very large scales in the universe. Uh, you know, Einstein wrote down a theory, general relativity. It still seems to work on every single scale we have possibly tested it. And that literally means including on the scale of the whole universe. So when I am mostly thinking about how dark matter and galaxies behave in the universe, for me personally, because of the scales that I'm interested, in relatively large scales, gravity is the main thing that matters for everything.

[00:18:14] And we know how it works. It's, it turns out to be hard to calculate because as you heard, we're calculating things on a very wide range of scales. 

[00:18:24] Russ Altman: Right, right.

[00:18:25] Risa Wechsler: All the way from, you know, the details of exactly how the Milky Way forms to, you know, how a trillion galaxies formed in the universe. Um, so it's a complicated computational problem, but conceptually it's just the same gravity that, you know, is why you're sitting in your chair.

[00:18:43] Russ Altman: This is The Future of Everything. We'll have more with Risa Wechsler next.

[00:18:56] Welcome back to The Future of Everything. I'm your host, Russ Altman, and we're speaking with Professor Risa Wechsler about physics, astrophysics, the edges of the universe, and where galaxies come from. 

[00:19:08] In the next segment, Risa will tell us about dark matter, dark energy, and how she and her colleagues are measuring these things to get a better understanding of how fast the universe is accelerating in its growth.

[00:19:22] But Risa, one of the things you mentioned that we didn't get into a little bit was dark energy and dark matter, and it sounds like that's quite fundamental. So can you take us through what we need to know about that to appreciate our evolving understanding of the universe? 

[00:19:36] Risa Wechsler: Yeah, great. Okay, so the first thing, um, I am really interested in this basic question, what is the universe made of?

[00:19:44] Okay. And the first thing you need to know about the answer to that question is that most of the universe is made of different stuff than you and me, right? You and me are made of hydrogen and carbon and oxygen and other things like that. Everything on the periodic table, all of the things that you and me and the Sun and the stars are made of.

[00:20:03] Russ Altman: The entire chemistry AP exam. 

[00:20:06] Risa Wechsler: All of chemistry AP, and in fact, all of the standard model of particle physics is all less than five percent of what the universe is made of. So, we now know that there are these two other things, um, dark matter, we think is matter, but it's matter, so it behaves exactly the same gravitationally as normal matter does, as far as we have seen.

[00:20:32] And we can see its impact gravitationally on everything from the tiniest galaxies in the universe to how the entire universe as a whole moves and changes over time. But as far as we know, it's a particle and we don't know what this particle is. So we're looking for it, but we're looking for, it might be really, really small. It might be ten to the minus twenty-one times smaller than an electron, or it might be, you know, a thousand times the mass of the Sun. That's a very big mass range. 

[00:21:04] Russ Altman: Right. 

[00:21:04] Risa Wechsler: We don't know what it is and we're looking. 

[00:21:06] Russ Altman: Do we know if it's in our presence or is it out there somewhere? 

[00:21:09] Risa Wechsler: No, it's everywhere. It's everywhere and it is actually, it doesn't interact with us. So it's probably going through you and me because we are, you know, the earth is spinning around the Sun and the Sun is spinning around the Milky Way. So we actually are moving through the galaxy, um, as we speak. 

[00:21:27] Russ Altman: Okay. 

[00:21:27] Risa Wechsler: Through this wind of dark matter. So that's the dark matter, but um, then there's this other thing that's even stranger, which is not even matter at all. And we call that thing dark energy. It's kind of just a funny name. Uh, we don't know what it is, but what we do know is, we know how much there is, and we know what it's doing to the universe. So dark energy basically does two things. It changes the way the universe expands over time. And it changes, along with dark matter, they both change how structure grows, so how small things become big.

[00:22:00] And so we actually, even though we don't know what this thing is, it has an impact on the universe on very, very large scales. And so that's one of the reasons that we're making these very big maps, to figure out what dark energy and dark matter are. 

[00:22:17] Russ Altman: Okay, great. So you've described for us a little bit about dark matter, a little bit about dark energy. How does this, how do you use these concepts for doing what you really have said now a couple of times you're interested in, which is understanding and mapping the universe? 

[00:22:32] Risa Wechsler: Yeah, so these maps of the universe are actually really sensitive to both dark matter and dark energy. Um, dark energy, even though we don't know what it is, impacts things on large scales in the universe.

[00:22:43] So it impacts how the universe evolves over time. It impacts it in two ways. One is how fast the universe expands, and the other is how fast it gets clumpy. And so by making these maps that I told you about, we're actually separately able to map out how fast is the universe clumping up? How fast is gravity working? And how fast is it speeding apart? It actually turns out the universe is not just expanding, it's actually accelerating. And that is the key reason that we know that dark energy is a thing. It's probably like a property of the vacuum itself that kind of pushes one bit of space away from another bit of space.

[00:23:22] So we know it's accelerating, we don't know why, and we want to measure how fast as well as we possibly can. So that's dark energy. Now, dark matter is, it, so it does impact how fast the universe expands and how fast it gets clumpy. But it also, because it's a, probably a small thing, can do all kinds of other things.

[00:23:43] We want to actually understand what's the mass of the dark matter particle, and also how it interacts. And, we have lots of ways to do that, actually, some of my colleagues here at Stanford and SLAC are trying to build experiments deep underground to try to catch dark matter in the act, and see if it actually interacts with us.

[00:24:02] What I'm personally doing is trying to understand how dark matter behaves, on the scale both of the whole universe and on the scale of individual galaxies because it turns out that what dark matter is, like actually what particle it is, can influence things like how many galaxies there are, um, how clumpy they are, how they behave, how they move.

[00:24:26] And so, um, one of the ways I've been thinking about that recently is there's another kind of map we make, which is actually a very precise map of the Milky Way itself. And there are some things that we can only measure in the Milky Way, including the tiniest galaxies in the universe, which these small ones are like only a few hundred stars. And the way they move actually is very sensitive to what the dark matter particle is. So that's a new tool we have to learn about what that is. 

[00:24:57] Russ Altman: Great. So now you had mentioned this Saga survey, and you had so much excitement that I want to make sure I ask you about it and why we, all need to be excited about it.

[00:25:07] Risa Wechsler: Yeah, so, big picture, we live in the Milky Way, and I already mentioned to you that there's some, many things that we can only measure at high precision in the Milky Way. But of course, the Milky Way is one galaxy, and it's one of probably a trillion galaxies in the universe. So every time we measure one thing really precisely, we always want to know, how does it fit in? How does it fit into everything else we know? So actually, about fifteen years ago, um, a colleague of mine, Marla Geha at Yale, uh, we were thinking, we were very frustrated by how often it was that people were comparing models of all the galaxies that look like the Milky Way with this one galaxy, the Milky Way.

[00:25:50] So we thought, okay, well, let's find a hundred of them. And that was a kind of ambitious plan at the time. The thing we were interested in specifically is, I mean, we'd like to know everything about these hundred galaxies that are similar to the Milky Way. What we specifically targeted was their satellite galaxies, their bright satellite galaxies.

[00:26:09] In the Milky Way, we actually know right now of almost sixty galaxies that are orbiting our own galaxy. But some of them are so tiny that you can only see them even very nearby. You can't even see them at the edge of the Milky Way. So here, what we wanted to do was find the satellite galaxies around these hundred Milky Way like systems.

[00:26:29] So we actually, it was quite an ambitious project, both theoretically and observationally. But we found, we, we have these hundred systems now, actually a hundred and one. And um, and we have identified almost four hundred satellites that orbit these hundred systems. And so what that does is it helps us understand the context of our home. Everything we measure about the Milky Way we can now put into context with these hundred other systems to understand, you know, how it varies as a function of their formation history. 

[00:27:02] Russ Altman: Right. So instead it's just like so, you know, I sometimes I'm a doctor I sometimes get involved in clinical research and you can give a drug to one patient and it'll work or it won't work But you have no idea if it's actually going to work for everybody else. But if you give me ninety-nine other patients, then I begin to have some idea of what's a normal response and what's abnormal. So it's kind of easy for me to believe that by looking at a hundred, and I'm interested in this idea, you must've had to define what similar meant. 

[00:27:28] Risa Wechsler: Yeah. In this case, we actually just looked at mostly basically how massive it was. And I can take your analogy a little bit further, right? If these hundred people, like, they have different genetics, right? Their parents may have been more or less likely to have had heart disease. 

[00:27:46] Russ Altman: Yes, absolutely. 

[00:27:47] Risa Wechsler: And same thing with these hundred Milky Ways. They have had different formation histories. They were formed in different environments. Some of them essentially were formed in cities and some were formed in the country.

[00:28:01] Some of them actually, you know, um, had a progenitor which was very massive ten billion years ago, and some of them actually just kind of caught up very late. Um, so that's the kind of diversity that we can try to understand and put the Milky Way into context. 

[00:28:16] Russ Altman: So I take it that when you make these measurements, you're seeing the fingerprints of their history in the measurements.

[00:28:22] Risa Wechsler: Exactly. That's exactly right. And that helps us understand the Milky Way, uh, much better. We now know a ton about the Milky Way and it's a really exciting time because we're able to measure, map it much more precisely with the next generation of instruments. And hopefully learn more, not only about galaxy formation, but also about dark matter.

[00:28:42] We sort of know the Milky Way formed a little bit early, but then it had this interesting collision that happened only a bill, one or two billion years ago with a with an object called the Large Magellanic Cloud that was pretty massive and brought in a bunch of its own systems with it. And so that turns out to be a really important thing for understanding all of the details that we can only measure in our own system.

[00:29:04] Russ Altman: So I have to ask, because when I was a kid, I loved, I had a telescope, I did astronomy. The Andromeda Galaxy was the only one I could ever find. Is that one of the hundred that you're looking at? 

[00:29:14] Risa Wechsler: No. And there's a reason it's not, it's so close that we actually can't see most of the whole, you know, region around Andromeda. So we actually have to go far enough away that we can see the whole system. 

[00:29:29] Russ Altman: Thanks to Risa Wechsler. That was The Future of the Universe. Thanks for tuning in to this episode, too. With more than 250 episodes in our archives, you have instant access to a whole range of fascinating conversations with me and other people.

[00:29:46] If you're enjoying the show, please remember to consider sharing it with friends, family, and colleagues. Personal recommendations are the best way to spread the news about The Future of Everything. You can connect with me on X or Twitter @RBAltman, and you can connect with Stanford Engineering @StanfordENG.

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Level  3

Access to he: nursing, midwifery and allied health fast-track (blended).

This is a fast course, which starts in January and ends in time for learners who join it to progress to university in September 2025. It is designed for people aged 18 or over and is perfect for anyone looking to start a career in nursing, midwifery or any of the allied health professions, or considering changing careers to work in these fields.

A career in any nursing and midwifery-focussed profession empowers you to help people, working in a variety of positions and a wide choice of specialties.

We have a highly skilled and experienced teaching team, and this is one of the reasons we see success and progression to university rates significantly above the national average.

The course is well-established and widely accepted by universities, providing you with UCAS tariff points that are equivalent to three A Levels.

Subjects/Topics Covered

The Access to HE Diploma in Nursing and Midwifery is designed to prepare students for entry into a range of undergraduate programs in the allied health professions. The subjects covered in this course typically include:

Human Biology: students will learn about the structure and function of the human body, including the cardiovascular, respiratory, digestive, and nervous systems.

Psychology: within this topic you will explore a range of studies relating to human behaviour and to mental health conditions and the range of treatments and therapies which are successful in supporting recovery from them.

Research and Referencing: students will learn about research methods used in medical and healthcare fields, including qualitative and quantitative research. Study Skills: This module covers communication skills that are essential for success in the social sciences, including verbal and written communication, presentation skills, and teamwork.

Assessment Method

The Access to HE Diploma is designed to reflect the rigor and demands of undergraduate study. It includes a range of assessment methods such as essays, reports, exams, presentations, and portfolios. The assessments will be spread throughout the year, and you will receive regular feedback to help you progress and develop your skills.

You will study in college for 12 hours (two days) a week and complete another 6 hours of study using online self-directed learning at times to suit you. If you are prepared to study hard, this is a great flexible course to fit around your lifestyle and working commitments - voluntary or paid work within related fields will strengthen your university application and is recommended.

The assessment submission deadlines on this course are more regular than the September start courses, so if you wish to enrol, you must be in a position to commit a lot of time to studying. In addition to the 6 hours of self-directed learning at home, Access courses require at least one day per week of further research and independent study.

Progression Opportunities

This course will help you progress onto a variety of degree courses within science pathways, including University Centre Weston’s:

• Assistant Practitioner (Health and Social Care) Higher Apprenticeship
• Assistant Practitioner (Mental Health) Higher Apprenticeship
• Nursing Associate FdSc (Higher Apprenticeship)
• SEND and Inclusive Practice BA (Hons)

Plus a range of degrees at universities across the country, including:

• Adult Nursing
• Mental Health Nursing
• Learning Disabilities Nursing
• Children’s Nursing
• Paramedic Science
• Radiography
• Chiropractic
• Physiotherapy

Entry Requirements

GSCE English grade 4/C and maths grade 4/Cis mandatory.

We will consider equivalent qualifications, but the applicant must check that their equivalents will be accepted for entry to their chosen university.

Please note, that if you wish to progress to UWE Bristol, they will accept maths units which are studied within the Access programme as equivalent to GCSE maths.

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Our dedicated team of experts is on hand to provide you with tailored advice and support to help you make the right decisions about your future career and course choices. Whether you need help developing your employability skills, exploring your options, or deciding which course to take, we're here to help you achieve your goals.

Plus, as a Microsoft College, all of our students and apprentices get FREE access to LinkedIn Learning. This is an amazing online platform that offers expert-led courses to help you develop your business, technology-related, and creative skills. At Weston College, we're dedicated to helping you achieve success in your career, whatever your goals may be. So why not take that first step today and join our adult community of learners? We can't wait to help you unlock your full potential!

Financing Your Course

At Weston College, we believe that learning should be accessible to everyone. That's why we offer a range of adult courses that could be free or significantly discounted. Apply online today and our friendly team will be in touch to see how we can ensure you can enrol and get the best price for your course. Don't let finances hold you back from pursuing your passion and advancing your career. Apply now and let us help you achieve your goals.

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Most people qualify for FREE tuition and material fees due to discounts we offer. Click on the icon(s) below to find out what you’ll need to pay.

Full Fee: £3,384.00 ?

Supported fee: £3,384.00 , fees information, level 2 qualifications.

This course may be Free* if you live in the South West of England and:

• receive Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA), including those receiving National Insurance credits only
• receive Employment and Support Allowance (ESA)
• receive Universal Credit and your take home pay, as recorded on your Universal Credit statement (disregarding Universal Credit payment and other benefits) is less than £345 a month (learner is sole adult in the benefit claim) or £552 a month (learner has a joint benefit claim with their partner)
• are released on temporary licence, studying outside a prison environment, and not funded by the Ministry of Justice
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This course is Free* if:

The qualification you have chosen to study is part of the Legal Entitlements list and you are aged 19-23 at the start of your course and you do not already have a qualification at Level 3 or higher. From April 2021, any adult aged 24 and over who wants to achieve their first full level 3 qualification will be able to access certain courses we run for free.

The full fee is payable if:

• this is not your first full level 3
• the qualification you wish to study isn’t on the approved list of level 3 qualifications the College can run for free.

However, you may qualify for an Advanced Learner Loan .

Apprenticeships - Information for Employers

The cost of apprenticeships will be split into 30 funding bands ranging from £1,500 to £27,000. The prices will depend on the type of apprenticeship and the level it is taught at, and are negotiable with your training provider.

For 98% of employers, the reforms mean that employing an apprentice will be better value for money than ever before. Small businesses will only have to pay 5% of the training costs, with the Government picking up the remaining 95%. In some cases, the Government will fully fund apprenticeships for small businesses.

Click here for more information about how the reforms and levy will affect your company.

Advanced Learner Loans

You may be eligible to apply for an Advanced Learner Loan from Student Finance England, to fund the cost of your course. For further information and to check eligibility, please follow the links below:

• www.weston.ac.uk/supporting-you/financial-support 

Spreading the Costs

If the cost you have to pay for a course is over £120 and lasts for 24 weeks or more, you may be able to spread the cost.

To do this you will be asked for a 25% deposit at enrolment, plus any examination fees payable. You will then be invoiced for the remaining fee and provided with information on taking the instalment option where applicable.

Enhanced Learning Credits

Weston College is an approved provider of courses under the Ministry of Defence's Enhanced Learning Credits (ELC) scheme. Enhanced Learning Credits are designed to promote lifelong learning amongst members of the Armed Forces and ex-service personnel. ELCs provide a financial contribution towards a first full Level 3 qualification (Certificates and Diplomas), a first Foundation Degree, a first full undergraduate degree or national equivalents.

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Please see here for more details about Hinkley Point.

Other Important information

While every care has been made to ensure the accuracy of our prospectuses and website, errors may occur from time to time resulting in incorrect information / fees being shown / printed.   

Fees quoted online and in our prospectuses are for the current academic year only, and are subject to change – two and three-year courses will have fees to pay again in subsequent years. 

You may still need to buy a uniform/kit which is your professional start-up kits or pay professional/personal memberships and all students will need to provide a National Insurance number and up-to-date proof of benefits, if applicable, at the time of enrolment. 

Please click here for our current term dates. 

If you are 16-18 years old on the 31st August in the current academic year, this course is usually Free. 

Students who are EU/EEA or Swiss Citizens who have lived in the UK before 1 January 2021 who do not have indefinite leave to enter or remain in the UK or haven’t applied for the EU Settlement Scheme and been granted pre-settled or settled status – please contact the College Registrar on 01934 411 531 for advice on appropriate UKVI student visa fees before you enrol. 

Full refunds will be payable if we need to cancel a course. 

Tuition fee refunds are payable if you change your mind within 14 days of enrolling on your course and before the start of the course (10% of tuition fee or £25 administration fee whichever is larger will be charged). 

If you change your mind about a course before it starts or during the first three weeks, we will happily transfer you to an alternative course - you may need to pay any difference in fees or have a credit note issued to you if the course is cheaper. 

If you wish to withdraw from a course you can request a credit note for the remaining proportion of the tuition fees to a maximum of 50% of tuition fees paid (a £25 administration fee will be charged). Credit notes are valid for one calendar year. 

There are different terms and conditions for Higher Education courses - please call 01934 411 409 for further details. 

Discretionary Learner Support Fund

This is a College-administered fund which can support some costs associated with attending qualification courses. It is mean-tested against gross household income and limited in its amount per learner. For further information please contact Student Services on 01934 411 571. 

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