foreign policy essay css

The Foreign policy of Pakistan: issues, challenges, and solutions

• Naseem khan
• January 28, 2022
• CSS , CSS Solved Pakistan Affairs , Current Affairs , Featured , Opinions , Pakistan's Domestic Affairs , Pakistani Society , PMS
• 41774 Views

The foreign policy of Pakistan: issues, challenges, and solutions | Best for CSS, PMS Current Affairs, Pakistan Affairs, and Essay Papers

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Introduction

With various issues: political instability, less coordination among state institutions, and poor economy, it can be contesting for Pakistan to manage its internal and external challenges, like the Kashmir problem, the US-India nexus, the arm-race in South Asia and establishing peace in Afghanistan. However, to make itself influential based on its foreign policy in the competitive world, Pakistan has to maintain good relations with its neighbours, confidence in all super-powers, and curb non-state actors.

What is meant by the foreign policy?

The foreign policy of Pakistan

Fundamental principles of Pakistan’s foreign policy

• To protect its sovereignty
• To maintain good relations with the Muslim world
• To observe the principle of non-interference
• To implement the UN Charter
• To support self-determination

Current scenario of Pakistan foreign policy

Challenges to Pakistan’s foreign policy

• Existing political instability
• Increasing Balochistan conundrum
• Prevailing terrorism and sectarianism
• Non-solving Kashmir problem
• Growing nexus of US-India
• Hanging sword of FATF
• Defaming the international Image of Pakistan
• Establishing peace in Afghanistan

Issues in Pakistan foreign policy

• The minimum coordination among state institutions
• The issue of incompetent policymakers
• The presence of inept leadership
• The burden of geographical location
• The enigma of religious fundamentalism

Way forward

• To maintain good relations with all neighbours
• To initiate a balanced approach toward the Middle East countries
• To give equal weightage to all superpowers
• To refrain from interference in internal affairs of other countries
• To promote political stability
• To boost the economic condition
• To curb non-state actors

Critical analysis

Conclusion 

Answer to the Question

Nothing in this globalized world for a modern country is as important as sound foreign relations to secure its geographical, economic, and ideological interests. Living in isolation is no more in the interests of a country. Therefore, every developed or developing country has to formulate a peaceful and objective-oriented foreign policy keeping in view its national interests. Being a developing country, Pakistan enjoys its own effective and productive foreign policy based on its security and economic motives. It entertains cordial relations with all countries of the world. However, Pakistan faces several challenges regarding its foreign relations regarding the Kashmir issue, Indian aggressiveness, war-torn Afghanistan, the Middle East crisis, and a few more. These hurdles seem impossible to be managed by Pakistan in the presence of multiple issues such as fragile policies, a weak economy, a vulnerable geographical location, and the presence of non-state actors. In short, if Pakistan intends to formulate a successful foreign policy and manage its internal and external impediments, it has to eradicate all issues related to its economic, political, and ideological interests.

“Domestic policy can only defeat us; foreign policy can kill us.”  John F. Kennedy

Foreign policy is the total of objectives, principles, and interests that a state keeps in view establishing its peaceful relations with other countries. Professor Joseph Frankel has aptly said, “Foreign policy consists of decisions and actions that involve relations between one state and others to some appreciable extent.” Moreover, it reflects domestic policies by which a country extends its relations to other sovereign nations. That is why the foreign policy of one state has profound effects on the neighbouring countries. Hence, Pakistan should make itself a stable country economically and politically to establish sound interactions with other countries.  

Having hostile neighbours on both eastern and western sides, Pakistan’s foreign policy is mainly revolved around its key concerns, such as preserving its sovereignty, protecting its territorial integrity, and promoting the well-being of its people through economic development. Besides, Pakistan believes in maintaining good relations with all other countries on the basis of equality. Moreover, Pakistan has been the focal point of international politics owing to its geographical location. Being a gateway connecting many countries, Pakistan’s foreign policy can determine the fate of the region and affect international stability. Hence, Pakistan should formulate a peaceful foreign policy to secure its national interests in the best possible way.

“Success in foreign policy, as in carpentry, requires the right tool for the job.” Richard N. Haass

Fundamental principles of Pakistan’s foreign policy 

Being a self-reliant state, the foreign policy of Pakistan is based on some essential principles. In the first place, Pakistan’s foreign policy at all costs ensures the sovereignty and independence of the country. Pakistan is the outcome of the great sacrifices of millions of Muslims, and that is why freedom of the country has become an integral part of its foreign policy. Second, Pakistan always seeks to maintain strong relations with all Muslim countries. For this very purpose, Pakistan has joined many organizations of Muslim countries to enhance its relationship with them. Third, Pakistan’s foreign policy is based on the principle of non-interference; thus, it never meddles in the internal affairs of other countries unless they invite it. Fourth, Pakistan does not ignore the UN Charter while formulating its foreign policy. It always supports all the moves of the UN in true essence. Lastly, Pakistan’s foreign policy is based on the principle of self-determination. Hence, it fights orally for the independence of Kashmir and Palestine based on this very principle.   

Various internal and external challenges surround the foreign policy of Pakistan. Political instability in the country implements Pakistan’s foreign policy problematic for political stability is the hallmark of vibrant and efficient foreign policy. Moreover, the Balochistan issue is another internal hurdle in the way of Pakistan’s foreign policy. It limits the thinking capacity of policymakers because their minds stick to internal affairs only. Moreover, terrorism, extremism and sectarianism in the country have further jeopardized Pakistan’s foreign policy. Besides internal ones, external challenges are more dangerous as they directly influence Pakistan’s foreign policy development. The most crucial challenge among them is the Kashmir problem, for this very issue has been complicating the foreign relations of Pakistan and India since their independence. No one is ready to compromise on their interests related to Kashmir because it is the best water source for both of them. Furthermore, the US-India nexus and culture of the arms race in South Asia are giving a tough time to Pakistan’s foreign policy. Additionally, the sword of FATF, along with a bad image of Pakistan, are creating more impediments in the way of Pakistan’s foreign policy. Lastly, establishing peace in Afghanistan is the most exciting challenge for the Foreign Ministry of Pakistan. Hence, all these internal and external challenges contain the smooth progress of Pakistan’s foreign policy.

“How can I play baseball when I’m worried about foreign policy.” Charles M. Schulz

Issues in the foreign policy of Pakistan 

The foreign policy of Pakistan cannot protect the national interests of Pakistan properly in the presence of various issues. First, less or no coordination among the state institutions and intelligence agencies leaves Pakistan’s foreign policy at the mercy of the Foreign Ministry only. Thus, there remain many loopholes while formulating it. Second, incompetent policymakers and inept leadership frame opportunistic foreign policies that are not long-lasting; therefore, these policies are insufficient to attain the country’s national interests. Third, the geographical location of Pakistan makes it more complicated for the Foreign Ministry of Pakistan to analyze satisfactory regional and global changing interests. Lastly, religious fundamentalists inside the country influence Pakistan’s foreign policy for their vicious interests. In short, all these issues play a significant role in making Pakistan’s foreign policy directionless and problematic.  

Way forward 

Pakistan must take concrete measures to make its foreign policy vibrant and effective. In the first place, Pakistan should maintain better relations with all its neighbouring countries, especially India and Afghanistan. For this reason, Pakistan must at all costs resolve all its problems with these countries like the issue of Kashmir. Next to it, Pakistan has to adopt a balanced approach toward all Middle East countries. Therefore, it must engage itself with all these countries equally. Besides, Pakistan must take all superpowers of the world, especially the US, China, and Russia. All of them are equally important for preserving the national interests of Pakistan. Apart from it, Pakistan should not meddle in the internal affairs of other countries and always stick to the UN Charter.

Additionally, Pakistan has to improve its political stability to give extra focus to internal affairs. Furthermore, moving ahead, Pakistan must improve its economic condition to pursue good relations with other countries equally. Lastly, Pakistan must take stringent actions against all non-state actors roaming inside the country so that they cannot degrade the international image of Pakistan. In this way, Pakistan can make itself influential with the help of a vibrant and well-organized foreign policy in this competitive world.

“Here is my first principle of foreign policy: good governance at home.” William E. Gladstone

The foreign policy works as a building block for a country to initiate good relations with other countries. Without a durable and effective foreign policy, a country can’t engage itself successfully with other countries. Every country must change its foreign policy with time as there is no permanent friends or foe in the international arena. That is why Pakistan should maintain exemplary relations with other countries based on an objective-oriented foreign policy. In this way, Pakistan can secure its national interest abroad effectively.

To conclude, the foreign policy of Pakistan is surrounded by multiple challenges. These challenges make it difficult for Pakistan’s foreign policy to preserve the country’s national interest. That is why Pakistan is at loggerheads with many nations due to its short-sighted foreign policy. These hurdles cannot be managed fruitfully by Pakistan unless the existing issues related to foreign policy are resolved. Only then Pakistan can live peacefully with other nations based on its durable foreign policy, and it can protect its national interest in the best possible way.

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Essay on COVID-19 and Pakistan’s Foreign Policy Challenges for CSS & PMS

• August 3, 2021
• Essay for CSS PMS and Judiciary Exam

This is an essay on COVID-19 and Pakistan’s Foreign Policy Challenges for CSS & PMS.

COVID-19 and Pakistan’s Foreign Policy Challenges for CSS & PMS

Following and even before the World Health Organization (WHO) formally declared Covid-19 as a pandemic, restrictive measures such as lockdowns have been declared all over the world in order to contain the contagion. As of May 13, over 4 million cases have been recorded with a death toll of over 294,487.

The numbers are increasing with no end Insight. Covid-19 is an unparalleled, severe health and economic crisis. It is unique in nature because of two main things. Firstly, it is an amalgamation of a health pandemic, while bearing all the signs of an economic crisis. Secondly, its effects on both the demand and supply side of all economies, regardless of their nature are shocking.

The global impact of Covid-19 can be classified into three groups: human suffering , severe global recession and soaring unemployment due to financial and corporate sector hardships. Given the way it has hurt both public and private sector businesses, created rapid aversion among investors, and placed all major financial bodies under stress, the world is on track to bear witness to a global regression the likes of which have not been seen since World War II.

The World Bank has called this epidemic a ‘perfect store’ for the South Asian region. In order to slow the spread of the virus, countries in South Asia have implemented mandatory quarantines/lockdowns/ curfews along with taking all measures they can with the purpose of enabling their health systems to cope with anticipated overloads.

A World Bank report estimates that regional growth for South Asia will fall to a range between 1.8 and 2.8 percent in 2020. down from 6.3 percent projected six months ago.2 As with the rest of the world, tourism has come to a halt, distribution chains have been disrupted and inflows and outflows of capital have been paused, with no projection of resumption insight. Furthermore, the inflow of remittances, which are a significant part of all South Asian economies, has been discontinued to a vast extent.

Moreover, the hard truth is that because of the prevalent inequality in this region. it is highly probable that the people at the low end of the spectrum will be the most severely affected. Primarily so. because the implementation of social distancing for them is difficult. This along with a lack of access to basic health facilities. loss of jobs and spike in food prices means that thousands of people will be further pushed below the poverty line.

In the prevision of this crisis, governments in India. Pakistan. and Bangladesh has already approved stimulus packages geared towards support for the most disadvantaged classes in their countries. These are in conjunction with emergency funding for businesses to cope with the current crisis.

Pakistan and COVID-19

On February 26. Pakistan recorded its first case of the coronavirus. As of May 13. there were 35.303 confined cases with 761 deaths. Similar to many other countries. the Pakistan Government has been enforcing various forms of lockdown. While Karachi faces the strictest actions in the entire country. cities in other provinces have implemented less stringent measures. The reason being a complete nationwide lockdown would have deep-seated economic ramifications which the county will not be able to handle.

Disruptions caused by Covid-19 have placed an unprecedented strain on the country’s economic activity. thereby putting pressure on Pakistan’s fiscal position. The State Bank has adjusted GDP growth from an earlier estimate of 3.5 percent to 3 percent. Meanwhile, the Asian Development Bank has also decreased Pakistan’s projected growth rate from 2.9 percent to 2.6 percent. Official evaluations approximate an early loss of PKR 2.5 trillion with expected layoffs between 12.3 to 18.5 million people.

In Pakistan, almost 25 percent live below the poverty line. Many people are daily wage earners. whose means of income has been completely stopped because of the lockdown. A large number of repatriates from the Gulf will only add to the unemployment figures. The International Monetary Fund has already estimated the unemployment rate projection for the country to be 6.2 percent for 2020. Moreover, remittances make up 86 percent of the secondary income balance of the country.

According to official sources, foreign remittances have already halved in the past two months and are anticipated to decrease by $1 billion to $1.5 billion per year if the situation persists. Ten to eleven thousand households are expected to be directly affected.

In order to fight the pandemic, the government set up a National Command and Operation Center (NCOC) at the start of April. Additionally, in an appeal to international monetary institutions and community on April 12. Prime Minister Introit Khan unfolded his ”Global Initiative on Debt Relief’ for developing countries including Pakistan. to meet the unprecedented health and economic challenges posed by the pandemic.

UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres’ was quick to support the Prime Minister’s initiative terming it an importing pan of the response to the coronavirus pandemic. Furthermore, the government is also set to launch the ‘We Care’ drive for the protection of medical personnel. The aim of this campaign will be to bridge gaps between hospital administrations and the government and Will also include the provision of protective equipment, training, counseling, and stress management facilities in a major diplomatic outreach.

Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi and Pakistan embassies across the world have approached the heads of States and international monetary institutions to join Pakistan in this initiative. Moreover, in order to facilitate the repatriation of Pakistani workers from around the world. A Crisis Management Unit within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has also been formed.

Impact of COVID-19 on Pakistan’s Foreign Policy Choices

Followings are the impacts of COVId-19 on Pakistan’s Foreign Policy:

• Given that unilateralism is on the ascendant, and multilateralism losing relevance, the world could move more towards regionalism. Consolidating Pakistan’s economic relations with China will assume further significance.
• The Indian government has used Covid-19 to enhance its repression in Indian Occupied Kashmir (IoK). Moreover, systematic profiling of Indian Muslims is creating a dangerous environment that could morph into genocide or mass killing of the Muslims in India. Even though a number of sane voices have appeared, some from the Gulf and some from within India exposing BJP’s side face. this has not been enough to stop the Modi government’s brutalities.
• Peace in Afghanistan is also of crucial value. Neither Pakistan nor our region can afford a civil war in Afghanistan and its attendant consequence of more refugee flows towards Pakistan. The Government of Pakistan should continue to reiterate its stance, especially in the light of the brutal terrorist attacks that have taken place in Afghanistan recently.
• In view of the massive influx of repatriates, one big challenge the Government of Pakistan faces. is the retention of jobs and extension of visas for overseas Pakistanis. especially in the Gulf This also brings into question the extreme dependency. Pakistan places on remittances from the Gulf.
• The return of pilgrims from Iran has caused the initial spread of the virus. Officials are said to blame Iran for 80 percent of the disease spread.9 Geographical proximity and the need for a peaceful neighborhood, however, require that this factor should not be fisher amplified more than what it is and smooth things out with Iran. As it is increasingly the transmission of the disease is local. Moreover, the ironing out of any tensions between the two countries is important, given that Chief of the Anny Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa on May 12 spoke to his Iranian counterpart regarding the latter’s cooperation in dealing with 13aloch militants allegedly operating from Iranian soil.
• Pakistan has little fiscal space to support its huge population. catering to their basic needs. According to a World Bank report, Pakistan and Sri Lanka would be the worst affected countries in this pandemic. Managing our debt profile is necessary. The initiative of the government on debt relief was timely and well appreciated. The debt relief for one year is welcomed. However, servicing debt would remain a challenge.
• Export orders have mostly been canceled or pended. Art urgent shift would be required by our manufacturers towards what our market needs at this time rather than importing it. This is an opportune time to accord incentives to domestic manufacturing, with necessary protections against cheaper imports.
• Dependence on technology has increased manifold. That also means yet greater dependence on the technologically developed commies. Hence, need for greater technological education and development at home.

Choices for Pakistan

In the given circumstances. Pakistan should continue to endorse global efforts to combat the Covid19 pandemic. promote collective efforts within the regional forums like OIC and SAARC, practice livelihood-centered economic policies. and work on strengthening bilateral relations with regional countries.

Overseas Pakistanis

• The Government has done a commendable job in repatriating our overseas Pakistanis. However, we need to develop a health security strategy for migrants so as to safeguard the overall health of emigrants upon their return to Pakistan. In due course, a strategy would be required to absorb this workforce into our economy especially if the oil glut continues and Gulf countries continue their layoffs.
• On May 2 190 out of 483 passengers who were brought to Karachi through special flights from Dubai, Sharjah, and Colombo, and on May 4,105 passengers repatriated from UAE to Pakistan test positive for Covid-19. Hence, it is important that the Government of Pakistan engage with foreign governments to first check all passengers who are meant to fly out and second in the event that they test positive for Covid19. they should be facilitated in the country where they are present.
• The foreign office with assistance from all concerned ministries should ensure minimum job loss of overseas Pakistanis by engaging and cooperating with foreign governments, in the Gulf and Europe.
• Government and relevant departments should encourage and facilitate cottage industries in improving their products to met local demands by import substitution. Cottage industries are an important component of Pakistan’s economy and would help in rehabilitating the returnees. There is a need for sound policies. secure financial & legal environment to stimulate investment & other capital inflows in this regard.
• Pakistan should continue to lobby for the prime minister’s initiative for debt relief and coordinate with other developing countries to strengthen support for the voices calling for further debt relief. The IMF under its Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) scheme approved a loan of $1.4 billion for Pakistan in addition to giving Pakistan $1.5 billion relief in the form of delay in repayment of loans to bilateral creditors.12 However. our economy Will require a longer tens economic reprieve and debt relief since one of the biggest problems Pakistan faces is lack of fiscal stance.
• One major issue for Pakistan would be unemployment. The projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) assume critical importance, in terms of providing jobs and income. Overall bilateral relations with China are now more important than ever. The Pakistan Government should also seek relaxation in payments that are due to China for bilateral debt and repatriation of profits on CPEC projects. Additional support from China will further boost Pakistan’s economic recovery in the months to come.
• Economic diplomacy may require a whole new approach. Since the world is likely to face a massive recession if not regression. Pakistan would need to evolve its own economic solutions to its economic problems. The focus should be much more on domestic manufacturing with enough state protections for import substitution.
• New technologies (artificial intelligence, big data computing. drosses, etc.) would emerge as the key tool to not only improve health infrastructure but also influence the entire spectrum of how businesses would be run in our county and the world at large. While adapting to new technologies, the Pakistan Government should also build an in-house technical resource base. Total reliance on West-based technological tools is not recommended.
• Relations with the US are showing some signs of improvement. Apart from working together on Afghanistan, the US officials have stated that Pakistan has been placed among the high-priority countries that will receive US assistance for helping contain the outbreak of Covid-19. Investments into Pakistan by corporate America and especially by our own diaspora in the US should be attracted.
• Given that work from home is the ‘new normal’ at the moment. the requirement for effective software has increased significantly. Hence, the Pakistan Government should seek to engage with countries with a stronger IT sector, in order to strengthen its own software industry.

Amid the Covid-19 crisis, the FATF has given Pakistan an extension for another three months. The next review process is expected to take place in September 2020. Pakistan should reach out for diplomatic assistance from China, Turkey, Malaysia, and other friendly countries well ahead of time.

Despite the threat at hand in the form of a pandemic, India is still adamantly pursuing its Hindutva policies in occupied Kashmir. This provides an ideal opportunity for the Pakistan Government to continue to highlight Indian atrocities in ToK in order to awaken the world conscience. In this regard, it is important to take like-minded countries on board to jointly raise the issue at the global platforms. This will help build pressure on the Modi regime to stop brutalities in occupied Kashmir.

An equally worrying aspect of BJP rule in India is the consistent discrimination, lynching, and profiling of Indian Muslims. Tents like ‘corona jihad’ have been coined to demonize Muslims. A systematic cultural environment is being created that could instigate extremist Hindus to start targeting Muslims on a larger scale. The Government of Pakistan mast highlight sane voices from within and outside India that are exposing the Hindu fascism agenda of the Modi regime. Even though the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) issued a statement on April 20 urging the Indian government to take note of the atrocities against Muslims in India. a lot more still needs to be done not only in front of the OIC but from all multilateral organizations.

Health Diplomat

Pakistan has launched Pakistan’s Preparedness and Response Plan (PPRP), which is a welcome step to strengthen Pakistan’s capacity in emergency prevention, preparedness, response and relief, and building health systems up to December 2020. Necessary international collaboration and reach out through diplomatic chattels will ensure the success of the initiative.

Experts have warned that the second phase of Covid-19 is expected in fall/winter 2020. Keeping this in mind, this is a good opportunity to seek technological cooperation with China. South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore are in tracking identifying, and combatting the pandemic.

Islamabad should ask those countries that have successfully dealt with the pandemic to invest in Pakistan’s technological efforts to contain the spread of the vies through surveillance technology, 5G imaging and so on. Later, Pakistan might expand its technological cooperation with these countries in other areas.

All concerned bodies such as NDMA. Ministry of Health. Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Commerce in Pakistan should collaborate and exercise effective health diplomacy to specify places from were ventilators, nebulizers. PPEs and other required equipment can be procured. A better option of course remains to manufacture them right here in Pakistan.

The government could facilitate lab-to-lab cooperation with countries that are currently undertaking vaccine testing. If the second phase of Covid 19 comes, these cooperative arrangements will be useful.

In case there is a second phase of Covid-19, Pakistan should be well-prepared to enforce SOPs for a stricter lockdown while ensuring financial relief for the most vulnerable segment of the population.

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Global Power Dynamics and Pakistan’s Foreign Policy

The post is about “Global power dynamics and Pakistan’s foreign policy essay. Foreign policy of Pakistan in the changing regional and global settings. Global power dynamics and Pakistan’s foreign policy.”

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Global Power Dynamics and Pakistan’s Foreign Policy

Introduction

• State design foreign policy to achieve objectives in international arena of politics.
• Pakistan’s importance; geostrategic location and sole atomic power in Muslim world.
• Adopt balance approach.

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• US China cold war (unlike US and USSR tension in past, Pakistan this time has adopted balanced approach between two major power player, US and China. Successfully convinced US over CPEC.)
• US Iran tension (In US Iran tension, Pakistan successfully kept its relations with both countries. Did not prioritized one over another. Offer mediation services in tension between US and Iran which is diplomatically a balanced approach.)
• Saudi Iran tension (Pakistan saved Muslim Ummah from devastation by playing arbitrator role in Saudi Iran tension.)
• Palestine issue (Pakistan backs Palestine cause on every forum and is strongly against Jews’ illegal settlements in Arab peninsula.)
• Middle East (support every move that aims at restoring peace and stability in Syria and Iraq)
• US Taliban peace talk (play mediator role in US Taliban peace talk and peace process in Afghanistan).

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Post-9/11 Foreign Policy of Pakistan By Shamshad Ahmed

Since its emergence in 1947, Pakistan has had to face daunting crises and challenges. The aftershocks of 9/11 have impacted on Pakistan severely necessitating radical revisions in some of its key foreign policy goals. The country is under intense international scrutiny as a frontline state in the global fight against terror. There is need for Pakistan to undertake far-reaching domestic reforms as only political, economic and social stability under a democratic dispensation will enable it to overcome the internal and external threats that it now confronts. This necessitates more emphasis on internal restructuring and the crafting of  “a low profile foreign policy.”

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Guest Essay

What Trump Could Do in Foreign Policy Might Surprise the World

By Curt Mills

Mr. Mills is the executive director of The American Conservative.

Love it or hate it, the United States has an imperial presidency, and in his first term, Donald Trump demonstrated a record of using such powers with noted relish on the world stage. As in many areas, he does not have a conventional approach to global relations. But it may turn out that, like Richard Nixon and George H.W. Bush before him, Mr. Trump enjoys engagement with foreign policy.

His particular style of politics can be provocative, of course, but also effective. Mr. Trump’s approach to America’s place in the world is pragmatic or unpredictable or both, and it could offer surprising opportunities for peace.

If Mr. Trump re-enters the Oval Office, he may seek to surprise in his final act, perhaps inspiring parallels, in its unpredictability and volatility, with Nixon and his “madman” foreign policy.

In Mr. Trump’s first term, his results in foreign affairs have generally been underrated. For a “madman,” there were real accomplishments: no new foreign wars, the Abraham Accords between Israel and a handful of Sunni states that many experts on the subject thought were impossible, a focus on China that is now bipartisan, putting allies on notice that they had to more than vaguely contribute to their own defense.

Unless the global landscape suddenly shifts, Mr. Trump would return to the Oval Office facing the sorts of foreign crises — particularly the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East — that he largely avoided in his first term.

But the circumstances would surely not change the way he managed foreign affairs. In his first term Mr. Trump could be the bête noire of the establishment and Republican neoconservatives on Monday (as in his interactions with Kim Jong-un and the NATO leaders). And he could be the vicious spear tip of American power on Tuesday (as in the 2020 airstrike in Baghdad that killed Qassim Suleimani).

In a second term Mr. Trump would likely not assemble a right-wing establishment cabinet of oil executives and generals. He would instead be guided by a new group of establishment figures or pragmatists as well as a cut of advisers associated with the new right who want a broader convulsion in foreign policy and who wonder, with increasing despondence at the state of American culture, if a new Cold War-type enemy, perhaps China, would unify the population.

Members of this new right group increasingly disagree among themselves, particularly on just how far to take it to China and just how interchangeable conservative foreign policy should be with Israel’s.

Among the new pragmatists, the man who succeeded John Bolton as national security adviser, Robert O’Brien, would almost certainly play a key role in a second term, perhaps as defense secretary or secretary of state.

Mr. O’Brien is an understated but powerful lawyer from the West Coast. (Another point in the Trump-Nixon echoes: In 2022, Mr. O’Brien was named chairman of the board of the Richard Nixon Foundation.) He calls himself a Reagan Republican and would be an easy Senate confirmation.

The team might also include the former acting director of national intelligence Richard Grenell, who was Mr. Trump’s ambassador to Germany from 2018 to 2020. An ally of Mr. O’Brien’s, Mr. Grenell engages in smashmouth interpersonal politics that marked his tumultuous tenure in Berlin. But his style aligns well with Mr. Trump’s approach to diplomacy-as-negotiation.

In addition to the wonkish ideologues and pragmatists, there is an unpredictable milieu of true believers, among them Steve Bannon and the retired colonel Douglas Macgregor, a cult hero on the new right who in the chaos of the 2020-21 transition was installed by Pentagon loyalists to Mr. Trump with the intent of a quick withdrawal from Afghanistan.

This team would suggest a vision — relative aversion to ideology but a tolerance for radicalism — that could fulfill Mr. Trump’s foreign policy approach, which favors a mixture of staying out of trouble and engaging in conflicts decisively and briefly. Washington veterans often react with puzzlement to the idea that Mr. Trump has a foreign policy vision at all. His approach confused people like Mr. Bolton, who criticized Mr. Trump for looking at “things on a transactional basis.”

But Mr. Trump likes to occupy two identities at once: threat and negotiator. And as he showed in a recent interview with Time magazine, he has a shrewd understanding of how to manage his team in negotiations. For example, he said in the interview that Mr. Bolton “served a good purpose” because “every time he walked into a room, people thought you were going to war.”

This again suggests a parallel with Mr. Nixon’s administration. One of his first decisions in the White House was to hire Henry Kissinger as his national security adviser. Even Mr. Kissinger — a Harvard professor who had consulted for Nelson Rockefeller, a rival of Mr. Nixon’s — was surprised by the decision.

Yet Mr. Kissinger helped balance Mr. Nixon’s strident anti-Communist Cold War posturing and kept allies and enemies guessing about his intent. Mr. Nixon’s seemingly wild card tactics boosted the credibility of his threats. He is often remembered today for balance of power, for realpolitik and for moving to end America’s involvement in Vietnam, but he is remembered more for opening ties with Communist China.

It took Mr. Nixon to go to Beijing. Is it truly so imponderable that it could take Mr. Trump to go to Beirut or even Tehran?

You can apply Mr. Trump’s two-positions-at-once approach to various other hot spots. Take Israel. In his recent interview, he reiterated that he would “protect Israel” if war broke out with Iran but also said that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “rightfully has been criticized for what took place on Oct. 7.”

He said the Jewish state should “get the job done” in Gaza but also concluded that Israel has managed to lose the public relations battle in this war. You can imagine Mr. Trump, as president, unreservedly supporting Israel in its military campaign in Gaza. But you can equally imagine him speaking in far harsher terms against Mr. Netanyahu than President Biden has, perhaps in pursuit of a cease-fire.

Or take Mr. Trump’s language around Russia and NATO. Last winter, Mr. Trump caused outrage when he said that he’d be willing to let Russia “do whatever the hell they want” to NATO countries that don’t spend enough on their defense.

In his Time interview, Mr. Trump said of that earlier comment, “When I say things like that, that’s said as a point of negotiation.”

The criticism around his NATO and Russia comments presupposes that Mr. Trump, the consummate negotiator, would simply remove his greatest point of leverage (membership in the body) out of the gate. The global impression of Mr. Trump as Vladimir Putin’s pawn — and an admirer of autocrats like Mr. Kim — only incentivizes him to surprise in the other direction.

In a second term, there would also be the promise that Mr. Trump would at last attempt to prove the technocrats and Washington bureaucrats wrong — the experts he fired and flouted, the prestige financiers who have mocked him and the lawyers who have tried to imprison him.

Consider what the mere possibility of a Trump win in November plausibly inspired in recent weeks: France is taking up the mantle of independent European defense , and Israel’s offers in negotiations with Hamas have gotten more reasonable .

If Mr. Trump wins in November, he will almost certainly read a life’s worth of vindication into how he does business and the value of his ability to be in two places at once. The uncertainty that comes with his style is poised to once again give him power over America’s soft and hard power in global affairs.

Maybe Mr. Trump can continue to surprise and achieve what Mr. Nixon aspired to. His gravestone in Yorba Linda, Calif., contains a line from his first Inaugural Address: “The greatest honor history can bestow is the title of peacemaker.”

Curt Mills is the executive director of The American Conservative.

The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips . And here’s our email: [email protected] .

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How Do U.S. Firms Withstand Foreign Industrial Policies?

China’s industrial policies (“Five-Year Plans”) displace U.S. production/employment and heighten plant closures in the same industries as those targeted by the policies in China. The impact was not anticipated by the stock market, but U.S. companies in the "treated industries" suffer a valuation loss afterwards. Firms shift production to upstream or downstream industries benefiting from the boost, or offshore to government-endorsed industries in China. Such within-firm adjustments offset the direct impact. U.S. firms are better able to withstand foreign government interventions provided that they enjoy flexibility, including preexisting business toeholds in the "beneficiary" industries, financial access, and labor fluidity.

Any opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Census Bureau or the National Bureau of Economic Research.. This research was carried out at a Federal Statistical Research Data Center under FSRDC Project Number 1831. All results have been reviewed to ensure that no confidential information is disclosed.

MARC RIS BibTeΧ

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