clock This article was published more than  2 years ago

Surging crash-death rates that took hold with pandemic continued this year, according to new estimate

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says risky behaviors such as speeding, drunk driving and not wearing a seat belt are largely to blame

recent nhtsa research reports that an estimated

The first quarter of 2021 was the deadliest start of a year on the nation’s roads in over a decade, with car crashes killing an estimated 8,730 people from January to March, according to a new estimate from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

The numbers indicate that a surge in road deaths that began with the coronavirus pandemic has continued into this year, although they offer some early glimmer of hope that unusually high fatality rates might be beginning to come down.

NHTSA said the ongoing high death rate appears to have been caused by drivers continuing to take risks by speeding, getting behind the wheel after drinking or using drugs, and not wearing seat belts. To coincide with the new estimates, NHTSA on Thursday released an updated version of a guide to improving highway safety, largely focusing on encouraging more-conscientious behavior on the roads and deterring risk-taking.

“We must address the tragic loss of life we saw on the roads in 2020 by taking a transformational and collaborative approach to safety,” said Steven Cliff, NHTSA’s acting administrator. “Everyone — including those who design, operate, build and use the road system — shares responsibility for road safety.”

The estimated 8,730 deaths represent an increase of more than 10 percent compared with the same period last year and equate to 1.26 deaths for every 100 million miles driven. That rate is substantially lower than figures for the last nine months of 2020, when the death rate climbed to almost 1.5 per 100 million miles — but NHTSA’s data shows that the beginning of the year is typically the least deadly stretch.

Asked about the decline in the fatality rate, NHTSA spokeswoman Lucia Sanchez cautioned against drawing conclusions for the rest of the year, saying figures for the second quarter of 2021 will likely be more illuminating because the effects of stay-at-home measures weren’t fully felt until April 2020.

Traffic counts fell during the coronavirus pandemic, but road fatalities still increased

The National Safety Council, an independent advocacy group, recently forecast that 460 people will be killed in crashes over the Labor Day weekend as people take their last trips of summer.

Experts have said the death rates in 2020 were probably in large part the result of people driving faster on roads emptied of traffic as people stayed home to avoid the coronavirus. In the initial stages of the pandemic, the overall number of road deaths declined slightly. But by summer they were surging, pushing fatality rates to levels unheard of in recent years.

Traffic volumes have rebounded, but in the first three months of 2021 Americans still drove about 7.5 percent fewer miles than they had in the same period in 2019, according to the Federal Highway Administration.

Traffic deaths increased during the pandemic. The toll fell more heavily on Black residents, report shows.

The new estimates suggest significant regional variation in the number of deaths compared with last year. In a NHTSA administrative region that stretches from Nevada northeast to North Dakota, deaths spiked 28 percent. But in the region including Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia, they dropped by 6 percent.

Pam Shadel Fischer, senior director of external engagement at the Governors Highway Safety Association, said state road safety agencies and police are pursuing approaches such as high-visibility enforcement of traffic laws to try to bring the death rates back down.

“But too many motorists fail to recognize their risky driving poses a threat to themselves and others,” she said. “These drivers must understand that people are dying needlessly on our roadways and they can help prevent these crashes by slowing down, stowing their cellphones, always driving sober and buckling up.”

Previous NHTSA research on the increase in fatalities during the pandemic found that the costs were not borne equally, with Black and Native American people disproportionately being killed . Experts have attributed the disparity to some communities being divided by dangerous roads and lacking good sidewalks and bike lanes.

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You're breathing potential carcinogens inside your car, says study

by Green Science Policy Institute

volvo

The air inside all personal vehicles is polluted with harmful flame retardants—including those known or suspected to cause cancer—according to a new study published in Environmental Science & Technology . Car manufacturers add these chemicals to seat foam and other materials to meet an outdated federal flammability standard with no proven fire-safety benefit.

"Our research found that interior materials release harmful chemicals into the cabin air of our cars," said lead author Rebecca Hoehn, a scientist at Duke University. "Considering the average driver spends about an hour in the car every day, this is a significant public health issue. It's particularly concerning for drivers with longer commutes as well as child passengers, who breathe more air pound for pound than adults."

The researchers detected flame retardants inside the cabins of 101 cars (model year 2015 or newer) from across the U.S. In total, 99% of cars contained tris (1-chloro-isopropyl) phosphate (TCIPP), a flame retardant under investigation by the U.S. National Toxicology Program as a potential carcinogen. Most cars had additional organophosphate ester flame retardants present, including tris (1,3-dichloro-2-propyl) phosphate (TDCIPP) and tris (2-chloroethyl) phosphate (TCEP), two California Proposition 65 carcinogens. These and other flame retardants are also linked to neurological and reproductive harms.

About half of the cars were tested in both summer and winter. Warmer weather was linked to higher flame retardant concentrations because off-gassing from interior components like seat foam is increased by higher temperatures. Vehicle interiors can reach up to 150 degrees Fahrenheit.

The researchers also analyzed samples of seat foam from 51 of the cars in the study. Vehicles that contained the suspected carcinogen TCIPP in their foam tended to have higher concentrations of TCIPP in their air, confirming foam as a source of this flame retardant in cabin air.

Flame retardants are added to seat foam to meet the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard (FMVSS) 302, an open-flame flammability standard that was first introduced in the 1970s and remains unchanged.

"Firefighters are concerned that flame retardants contribute to their very high cancer rates," said Patrick Morrison, who oversees Health and Safety for 350,000 U.S. and Canadian firefighters at the International Association of Fire Fighters. "Filling products with these harmful chemicals does little to prevent fires for most uses and instead makes the blazes smokier and more toxic for victims, and especially for first responders. I urge NHTSA to update their flammability standard to be met without flame retardant chemicals inside vehicles."

Such an update would mirror changes to California's flammability standard for furniture and baby products, which a decade ago was updated to a modern standard that is met without flame retardants. Notably, this update has maintained, or even modestly increased, furniture fire safety and led to lower levels of flame retardants in U.S. homes.

Epidemiological studies have shown that the average U.S. child has lost three to five IQ points from exposure to one flame retardant used in cars and furniture. Further, a recent research paper estimated that those with highest levels of this flame retardant in their blood had about four times the risk of dying from cancer compared with people with the lowest levels.

"You may be able to reduce your exposure to flame retardants in your car by opening your windows and parking in the shade," said co-author Lydia Jahl, a senior scientist at the Green Science Policy Institute. "But what's really needed is reducing the amount of flame retardants being added to cars in the first place. Commuting to work shouldn't come with a cancer risk , and children shouldn't breathe in chemicals that can harm their brains on their way to school."

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  • Electric Cars /

Tesla’s Autopilot and Full Self-Driving linked to hundreds of crashes, dozens of deaths

Nhtsa found that tesla’s driver-assist features are insufficient at keeping drivers engaged in the task of driving, which can often have fatal results..

By Andrew J. Hawkins , transportation editor with 10+ years of experience who covers EVs, public transportation, and aviation. His work has appeared in The New York Daily News and City & State.

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Left side of Tesla Model 3 main screen showing a computer-generated image of an intersection with cars parked on the sides and the Model 3 following another car

In March 2023, a North Carolina student was stepping off a school bus when he was struck by a Tesla Model Y traveling at “highway speeds,” according to a federal investigation that published today . The Tesla driver was using Autopilot, the automaker’s advanced driver-assist feature that Elon Musk insists will eventually lead to fully autonomous cars.

The 17-year-old student who was struck was transported to a hospital by helicopter with life-threatening injuries. But what the investigation found after examining hundreds of similar crashes was a pattern of driver inattention, combined with the shortcomings of Tesla’s technology, resulting in hundreds of injuries and dozens of deaths.

Drivers using Autopilot or the system’s more advanced sibling, Full Self-Driving, “were not sufficiently engaged in the driving task,” and Tesla’s technology “did not adequately ensure that drivers maintained their attention on the driving task,” NHTSA concluded.

Drivers using Autopilot or the system’s more advanced sibling, Full Self-Driving, “were not sufficiently engaged in the driving task”

In total, NHTSA investigated 956 crashes, starting in January 2018 and extending all the way until August 2023. Of those crashes, some of which involved other vehicles striking the Tesla vehicle, 29 people died. There were also 211 crashes in which “the frontal plane of the Tesla struck a vehicle or obstacle in its path.” These crashes, which were often the most severe, resulted in 14 deaths and 49 injuries.

NHTSA was prompted to launch its investigation after several incidents of Tesla drivers crashing into stationary emergency vehicles parked on the side of the road. Most of these incidents took place after dark, with the software ignoring scene control measures, including warning lights, flares, cones, and an illuminated arrow board.

In its report, the agency found that Autopilot — and, in some cases, FSD — was not designed to keep the driver engaged in the task of driving. Tesla says that it warns its customers that they need to pay attention while using Autopilot and FSD, which includes keeping their hands on the wheels and eyes on the road. But NHTSA says that in many cases, drivers would become overly complacent and lose focus. And when it came time to react, it was often too late.

  • Tesla’s in its flop era

In 59 crashes examined by NHTSA, the agency found that Tesla drivers had enough time, “five or more seconds,” prior to crashing into another object in which to react. In 19 of those crashes, the hazard was visible for 10 or more seconds before the collision. Reviewing crash logs and data provided by Tesla, NHTSA found that drivers failed to brake or steer to avoid the hazard in a majority of the crashes analyzed.

“Crashes with no or late evasive action attempted by the driver were found across all Tesla hardware versions and crash circumstances,” NHTSA said.

NHTSA also compared Tesla’s Level 2 (L2) automation features to products available in other companies’ vehicles. Unlike other systems, Autopilot would disengage rather than allow drivers to adjust their steering. This “discourages” drivers from staying involved in the task of driving, NHTSA said.

“Crashes with no or late evasive action attempted by the driver were found across all Tesla hardware versions and crash circumstances.”

“A comparison of Tesla’s design choices to those of L2 peers identified Tesla as an industry outlier in its approach to L2 technology by mismatching a weak driver engagement system with Autopilot’s permissive operating capabilities,” the agency said.

Even the brand name “Autopilot” is misleading, NHTSA said, conjuring up the idea that drivers are not in control. While other companies use some version of “assist,” “sense,” or “team,” Tesla’s products lure drivers into thinking they are more capable than they are. California’s attorney general and the state’s Department of Motor Vehicles are both investigating Tesla for misleading branding and marketing.

NHTSA acknowledges that its probe may be incomplete based on “gaps” in Tesla’s telemetry data. That could mean there are many more crashes involving Autopilot and FSD than what NHTSA was able to find.

Even the brand name “Autopilot” is misleading, NHTSA said

Tesla issued a voluntary recall late last year in response to the investigation, pushing out an over-the-air software update to add more warnings to Autopilot. NHTSA said today it was launching a new investigation into the recall after a number of safety experts said the update was inadequate and still allowed for misuse .

The findings cut against Musk’s insistence that Tesla is an artificial intelligence company that is on the cusp of releasing a fully autonomous vehicle for personal use. The company plans to unveil a robotaxi later this year that is supposed to usher in this new era for Tesla. During this week’s first quarter earnings call , Musk doubled down on the notion that his vehicles were safer than human-driven cars.

“If you’ve got, at scale, a statistically significant amount of data that shows conclusively that the autonomous car has, let’s say, half the accident rate of a human-driven car, I think that’s difficult to ignore,” Musk said. “Because at that point, stopping autonomy means killing people.”

More Tesla employees laid off as bloodbath enters its fourth week

These are the upcoming sonos ace wireless headphones, hands-on with the new ipad pro: yeah, it’s really thin, apple announces new ipad pros with oled displays and thinnest design ever, apple’s ‘let loose’ event live blog: ipads all the way down.

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US probes whether Tesla Autopilot recall did enough to make sure drivers pay attention

FILE - The logo for the Tesla Supercharger station is seen in Buford, Ga, April 22, 2021. Faced with falling global sales and a tumbling stock price, Tesla has slashed prices again on some of its electric vehicles and its “Full Self Driving” system. Tesla releases first-quarter earnings Tuesday, April 23, 2024. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson, File)

FILE - The logo for the Tesla Supercharger station is seen in Buford, Ga, April 22, 2021. Faced with falling global sales and a tumbling stock price, Tesla has slashed prices again on some of its electric vehicles and its “Full Self Driving” system. Tesla releases first-quarter earnings Tuesday, April 23, 2024. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson, File)

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DETROIT (AP) — The U.S. government’s auto safety agency is investigating whether last year’s recall of Tesla’s Autopilot driving system did enough to make sure drivers pay attention to the road.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says in documents posted on its website Friday that Tesla has reported 20 more crashes involving Autopilot and since the recall. The crashes and agency tests raised concerns about the effectiveness of the remedy. The recall involved more than 2 million vehicles, nearly all the vehicles that Tesla had sold at the time.

The agency pushed the company to do the recall after a two-year investigation into Autopilot’s driver monitoring system, which measures torque on the steering wheel from a driver’s hands. In the probe, the agency was looking at multiple cases in which Teslas on Autopilot ran into emergency vehicles parked on freeways.

The recall fix involves an online software update to increase warnings to drivers. But the agency said in documents that it has found evidence of crashes after the fix, and that Tesla tried to address problems with additional software updates after the recall fix was sent out. The updates may not have worked.

FILE - Tesla vehicles charge at a station in Emeryville, Calif., Aug. 10, 2022. Federal highway safety investigators want Tesla to tell them how and why it developed the fix in a recall of more than 2 million vehicles equipped with the company's Autopilot partially automated driving system. In a letter to Tesla posted on the agency's website Tuesday, May 7, 2024, investigators wrote that they could not find a difference between warnings to the driver to pay attention before the recall and after the new software was sent out. (AP Photo/Godofredo A. Vásquez, File)

“This investigation will consider why these updates were not part of the recall or otherwise determined to remedy a defect that poses an unreasonable safety risk,” the agency wrote.

A message was left early Friday seeking comment from Tesla.

NHTSA said that Tesla reported the 20 crashes in vehicles that had received the recall software fix. The agency has required Tesla and other automakers to report crashes involving partially and fully automated driving systems.

NHTSA said it will evaluate the recall, including the “prominence and scope” of Autopilot’s controls to address misuse, confusion and use in areas that the system is not designed to handle.

It also said that Tesla has stated that owners can decide whether they want to opt in to parts of the recall remedy, and that it allows drivers to reverse parts of it.

Safety advocates have long expressed concern that Autopilot, which can keep a vehicle in its lane and a distance from objects in front of it, was not designed to operate on roads other than limited access highways.

The investigation comes just one week after a Tesla that may have been operating on Autopilot hit and killed a motorcyclist near Seattle , raising questions about whether a recent recall went far enough to ensure Tesla drivers using Autopilot pay attention to the road.

After the April 19 crash in a suburban area about 15 miles (24 kilometers) northeast of the city, the driver of a 2022 Tesla Model S told a Washington State Patrol trooper that he was using Autopilot and looked at his cellphone while the Tesla was moving.

“The next thing he knew there was a bang and the vehicle lurched forward as it accelerated and collided with the motorcycle in front of him,” the trooper wrote in a probable-cause document.

The 56-year-old driver was arrested for investigation of vehicular homicide “based on the admitted inattention to driving, while on Autopilot mode, and the distraction of the cell phone while moving forward, putting trust in the machine to drive for him,” the affidavit said.

The motorcyclist, Jeffrey Nissen, 28, of Stanwood, Washington, was pronounced dead at the scene, authorities reported.

Authorities said they have not yet independently verified whether Autopilot was in use at the time of the crash.

On Thursday, NHTSA ended its investigation of Autopilot , citing the recall and the investigation of its effectiveness. The agency said it found evidence “that Tesla’s weak driver engagement system was not appropriate for Autopilot’s permissive operating capabilities.”

Tesla, the leading manufacturer of EVs, reluctantly agreed to the recall last year after NHTSA found that the driver monitoring system was defective.

The system sends alerts to drivers if it fails to detect torque from hands on the steering wheel, a system that experts describe as ineffective. Although many newer Teslas have cameras that can watch the driver, they can’t see at night, and independent testing shows that Autopilot can still be used even if the cameras are covered.

The Associated Press reported shortly after the recall that experts said the fix relied on technology that may not work.

Research conducted by NHTSA, the National Transportation Safety Board and other investigators show that merely measuring torque on the steering wheel doesn’t ensure that drivers are paying sufficient attention. Experts say night-vision cameras are needed to watch drivers’ eyes to ensure they’re looking at the road.

Michael Brooks, executive director of the nonprofit Center for Auto Safety, said NHTSA is looking into where Tesla allows Autopilot to be used.

The company doesn’t limit its use, even though it was designed to operate on limited access freeways. Tesla, he said, appears to rely on computers to decide whether Autopilot can operate rather than maps that show a vehicle’s location.

“When you hit that point where you’re in the area where Autopilot wasn’t designed to operate and the car knows it’s in that area, why is it still allowed to engage?” he asked.

Brooks said NHTSA could seek civil fines and additional fixes from Tesla.

Government documents filed by Tesla in the December recall say the online software change will increase warnings and alerts to drivers to keep their hands on the steering wheel.

NHTSA began its Autopilot crash investigation in 2021, after receiving 11 reports that Teslas that were using Autopilot struck parked emergency vehicles. In documents explaining why the investigation was ended, NHTSA said it ultimately found 467 crashes involving Autopilot resulting in 54 injuries and 14 deaths.

Tesla offers two partially automated systems, Autopilot and a more sophisticated “Full Self Driving,” but the company says neither can drive themselves despite their names.

In investigative documents, NHTSA said it found 75 crashes and one death involving “Full Self Driving.” It’s not clear whether the system was at fault.

CEO Elon Musk for several years has said “Full Self Driving” will allow a fleet of robotaxis to generate income for the company and owners, making use of the electric vehicles when they would have been parked. Musk has been touting self-driving vehicles as a growth catalyst for Tesla since “Full Self Driving” hardware went on sale late in 2015. The system is being tested on public roads by thousands of owners.

In 2019, Musk promised a fleet of autonomous robotaxis by 2020 that would make Teslas appreciate in value. Instead, they’ve declined with price cuts, as the autonomous robotaxis have been delayed year after year while being tested by owners as the company gathers road data for its computers.

Tesla says neither system can drive itself and that drivers have to be ready to take control at all times.

Neither Musk nor other Tesla executives on Tuesday’s earnings conference call would specify when they expect Tesla vehicles to drive themselves as well as humans do. Instead, Musk touted the latest version of “Full Self Driving” and said that “it’s only a matter of time before we exceed the reliability of humans, and not much time at that.”

Musk went on to insist that “if somebody doesn’t believe that Tesla is going to solve autonomy, I think they should not be an investor in the company.”

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NHTSA ends Tesla rear-view camera investigation after 2021 recall

But new probe covers 2 million vehicles.

recent nhtsa research reports that an estimated

WASHINGTON — The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said on Friday it has closed a long-running investigation into the loss of rear-view camera images in nearly 160,000 of Tesla's Model X and Model S vehicles.

The auto safety regulator said Tesla's 2021 recall of almost 135,000 vehicles appears to address the risk presented by the failure of a media control unit and will continue to monitor the effectiveness of the callback.

Tesla agreed to the recall to address touchscreen failures under pressure from NHTSA , after the agency sought the callback in a formal letter. Automakers usually agree to voluntary fixes before the auto safety agency formally seeks a recall.

The agency said touchscreen failures posed significant safety issues, including the loss of rearview or backup camera images, exterior turn-signal lighting, and windshield defogging and defrosting systems that "may decrease the driver’s visibility in inclement weather."

NHTSA said Friday the failure also impacts the Autopilot advanced driver assistance system (ADAS) and turn signal functionality due to potential loss of audible chimes, driver sensing, and alerts.

The agency last week opened a separate probe into Tesla's recall of 2 million vehicles in December to boost Autopilot safeguards.

NHTSA first opened a probe in June 2020 into complaints that media control unit (MCU) failures led to touchscreen displays not working.

NHTSA initially sought a recall of 158,000 vehicles but the recall did not include some vehicles with upgraded processors built after March 2018.

NHTSA said Friday the MCU has a finite lifespan and "believes that a 5- or 6-year life expectancy for a component integral to providing the driver with safety functions is insufficient."

Tesla said all units will inevitably fail given the memory device's finite storage capacity, the agency said. Tesla said in February that about 104,000 of the 135,000 vehicles recalled have been repaired .

The company had last month recalled 3,878 Cybertrucks to fix an accelerator pedal pad that could come loose and get lodged in the interior trim.

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A New Use for Wegovy Opens the Door to Medicare Coverage for Millions of People with Obesity

Juliette Cubanski , Tricia Neuman , Nolan Sroczynski , and Anthony Damico Published: Apr 24, 2024

The FDA recently approved a new use for Wegovy (semaglutide), the blockbuster anti-obesity drug, to reduce the risk of heart attacks and stroke in people with cardiovascular disease who are overweight or obese. Wegovy belongs to a class of medications called GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) agonists that were initially approved to treat type 2 diabetes but are also highly effective anti-obesity drugs. The new FDA-approved indication for Wegovy paves the way for Medicare coverage of this drug and broader coverage by other insurers. Medicare is currently prohibited by law from covering Wegovy and other medications when used specifically for obesity. However, semaglutide is covered by Medicare as a treatment for diabetes, branded as Ozempic.

What does the FDA’s decision mean for Medicare coverage of Wegovy?

The FDA’s decision opens the door to Medicare coverage of Wegovy, which was first approved by the FDA as an anti-obesity medication. Soon after the FDA’s approval of the new use for Wegovy, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) issued a memo indicating that Medicare Part D plans can add Wegovy to their formularies now that it has a medically-accepted indication that is not specifically excluded from Medicare coverage . Because Wegovy is a self-administered injectable drug, coverage will be provided under Part D , Medicare’s outpatient drug benefit offered by private stand-alone drug plans and Medicare Advantage plans, not Part B, which covers physician-administered drugs.

How many Medicare beneficiaries could be eligible for coverage of Wegovy for its new use?

Figure 1: An Estimated 1 in 4 Medicare Beneficiaries With Obesity or Overweight Could Be Eligible for Medicare Part D Coverage of Wegovy to Reduce the Risk of Serious Heart Problems

Of these 3.6 million beneficiaries, 1.9 million also had diabetes (other than Type 1) and may already have been eligible for Medicare coverage of GLP-1s as diabetes treatments prior to the FDA’s approval of the new use of Wegovy.

Not all people who are eligible based on the new indication are likely to take Wegovy, however. Some might be dissuaded by the potential side effects and adverse reactions . Out-of-pocket costs could also be a barrier. Based on the list price of $1,300 per month (not including rebates or other discounts negotiated by pharmacy benefit managers), Wegovy could be covered as a specialty tier drug, where Part D plans are allowed to charge coinsurance of 25% to 33%. Because coinsurance amounts are pegged to the list price, Medicare beneficiaries required to pay coinsurance could face monthly costs of $325 to $430 before they reach the new cap on annual out-of-pocket drug spending established by the Inflation Reduction Act – around $3,300 in 2024, based on brand drugs only, and $2,000 in 2025. But even paying $2,000 out of pocket would still be beyond the reach of many people with Medicare who live on modest incomes . Ultimately, how much beneficiaries pay out of pocket will depend on Part D plan coverage and formulary tier placement of Wegovy.

Further, some people may have difficulty accessing Wegovy if Part D plans apply prior authorization and step therapy tools to manage costs and ensure appropriate use. These factors could have a dampening effect on use by Medicare beneficiaries, even among the target population.

When will Medicare Part D plans begin covering Wegovy?

Some Part D plans have already announced that they will begin covering Wegovy this year, although it is not yet clear how widespread coverage will be in 2024. While Medicare drug plans can add new drugs to their formularies during the year to reflect new approvals and expanded indications, plans are not required to cover every new drug that comes to market. Part D plans are required to cover at least two drugs in each category or class and all or substantially all drugs in six protected classes . However, facing a relatively high price and potentially large patient population for Wegovy, many Part D plans might be reluctant to expand coverage now, since they can’t adjust their premiums mid-year to account for higher costs associated with use of this drug. So, broader coverage in 2025 could be more likely.

How might expanded coverage of Wegovy affect Medicare spending?

The impact on Medicare spending associated with expanded coverage of Wegovy will depend in part on how many Part D plans add coverage for it and the extent to which plans apply restrictions on use like prior authorization; how many people who qualify to take the drug use it; and negotiated prices paid by plans. For example, if plans receive a 50% rebate on the list price of $1,300 per month (or $15,600 per year), that could mean annual net costs per person around $7,800. If 10% of the target population (an estimated 360,000 people) uses Wegovy for a full year, that would amount to additional net Medicare Part D spending of $2.8 billion for one year for this one drug alone.

It’s possible that Medicare could select semaglutide for drug price negotiation as early as 2025, based on the earliest FDA approval of Ozempic in late 2017 . For small-molecule drugs like semaglutide, at least seven years must have passed from its FDA approval date to be eligible for selection, and for drugs with multiple FDA approvals, CMS will use the earliest approval date to make this determination. If semaglutide is selected for negotiation next year, a negotiated price would be available beginning in 2027. This could help to lower Medicare and out-of-pocket spending on semaglutide products, including Wegovy as well as Ozempic and Rybelsus, the oral formulation approved for type 2 diabetes. As of 2022, gross Medicare spending on Ozempic alone placed it sixth among the 10 top-selling drugs in Medicare Part D, with annual gross spending of $4.6 billion, based on KFF analysis . This estimate does not include rebates, which Medicare’s actuaries estimated to be  31.5% overall in 2022  but could be as high as  69%  for Ozempic, according to one estimate.

What does this mean for Medicare coverage of anti-obesity drugs?

For now, use of GLP-1s specifically for obesity continues to be excluded from Medicare coverage by law. But the FDA’s decision signals a turning point for broader Medicare coverage of GLP-1s since Wegovy can now be used to reduce the risk of heart attack and stroke by people with cardiovascular disease and obesity or overweight, and not only as an anti-obesity drug. And more pathways to Medicare coverage could open up if these drugs gain FDA approval for other uses . For example, Eli Lilly has just reported clinical trial results showing the benefits of its GLP-1, Zepbound (tirzepatide), in reducing the occurrence of sleep apnea events among people with obesity or overweight. Lilly reportedly plans to seek FDA approval for this use and if approved, the drug would be the first pharmaceutical treatment on the market for sleep apnea.

If more Medicare beneficiaries with obesity or overweight gain access to GLP-1s based on other approved uses for these medications, that could reduce the cost of proposed legislation to lift the statutory prohibition on Medicare coverage of anti-obesity drugs. This is because the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Congress’s official scorekeeper for proposed legislation, would incorporate the cost of coverage for these other uses into its baseline estimates for Medicare spending, which means that the incremental cost of changing the law to allow Medicare coverage for anti-obesity drugs would be lower than it would be without FDA’s approval of these drugs for other uses. Ultimately how widely Medicare Part D coverage of GLP-1s expands could have far-reaching effects on people with obesity and on Medicare spending.

  • Medicare Part D
  • Chronic Diseases
  • Heart Disease
  • Medicare Advantage

news release

  • An Estimated 1 in 4 Medicare Beneficiaries With Obesity or Overweight Could Be Eligible for Medicare Coverage of Wegovy, an Anti-Obesity Drug, to Reduce Heart Risk

Also of Interest

  • An Overview of the Medicare Part D Prescription Drug Benefit
  • FAQs about the Inflation Reduction Act’s Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program
  • What Could New Anti-Obesity Drugs Mean for Medicare?
  • Medicare Spending on Ozempic and Other GLP-1s Is Skyrocketing

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