analysis in research examples

Data & Finance for Work & Life

Data Analysis: Types, Methods & Techniques (a Complete List)

( Updated Version )

While the term sounds intimidating, “data analysis” is nothing more than making sense of information in a table. It consists of filtering, sorting, grouping, and manipulating data tables with basic algebra and statistics.

In fact, you don’t need experience to understand the basics. You have already worked with data extensively in your life, and “analysis” is nothing more than a fancy word for good sense and basic logic.

Over time, people have intuitively categorized the best logical practices for treating data. These categories are what we call today types , methods , and techniques .

This article provides a comprehensive list of types, methods, and techniques, and explains the difference between them.

For a practical intro to data analysis (including types, methods, & techniques), check out our Intro to Data Analysis eBook for free.

Descriptive, Diagnostic, Predictive, & Prescriptive Analysis

If you Google “types of data analysis,” the first few results will explore descriptive , diagnostic , predictive , and prescriptive analysis. Why? Because these names are easy to understand and are used a lot in “the real world.”

Descriptive analysis is an informational method, diagnostic analysis explains “why” a phenomenon occurs, predictive analysis seeks to forecast the result of an action, and prescriptive analysis identifies solutions to a specific problem.

That said, these are only four branches of a larger analytical tree.

Good data analysts know how to position these four types within other analytical methods and tactics, allowing them to leverage strengths and weaknesses in each to uproot the most valuable insights.

Let’s explore the full analytical tree to understand how to appropriately assess and apply these four traditional types.

Tree diagram of Data Analysis Types, Methods, and Techniques

Here’s a picture to visualize the structure and hierarchy of data analysis types, methods, and techniques.

If it’s too small you can view the picture in a new tab . Open it to follow along!

Note: basic descriptive statistics such as mean , median , and mode , as well as standard deviation , are not shown because most people are already familiar with them. In the diagram, they would fall under the “descriptive” analysis type.

Tree Diagram Explained

The highest-level classification of data analysis is quantitative vs qualitative . Quantitative implies numbers while qualitative implies information other than numbers.

Quantitative data analysis then splits into mathematical analysis and artificial intelligence (AI) analysis . Mathematical types then branch into descriptive , diagnostic , predictive , and prescriptive .

Methods falling under mathematical analysis include clustering , classification , forecasting , and optimization . Qualitative data analysis methods include content analysis , narrative analysis , discourse analysis , framework analysis , and/or grounded theory .

Moreover, mathematical techniques include regression , Nïave Bayes , Simple Exponential Smoothing , cohorts , factors , linear discriminants , and more, whereas techniques falling under the AI type include artificial neural networks , decision trees , evolutionary programming , and fuzzy logic . Techniques under qualitative analysis include text analysis , coding , idea pattern analysis , and word frequency .

It’s a lot to remember! Don’t worry, once you understand the relationship and motive behind all these terms, it’ll be like riding a bike.

We’ll move down the list from top to bottom and I encourage you to open the tree diagram above in a new tab so you can follow along .

But first, let’s just address the elephant in the room: what’s the difference between methods and techniques anyway?

Difference between methods and techniques

Though often used interchangeably, methods ands techniques are not the same. By definition, methods are the process by which techniques are applied, and techniques are the practical application of those methods.

For example, consider driving. Methods include staying in your lane, stopping at a red light, and parking in a spot. Techniques include turning the steering wheel, braking, and pushing the gas pedal.

Data sets: observations and fields

It’s important to understand the basic structure of data tables to comprehend the rest of the article. A data set consists of one far-left column containing observations, then a series of columns containing the fields (aka “traits” or “characteristics”) that describe each observations. For example, imagine we want a data table for fruit. It might look like this:

Now let’s turn to types, methods, and techniques. Each heading below consists of a description, relative importance, the nature of data it explores, and the motivation for using it.

Quantitative Analysis

• It accounts for more than 50% of all data analysis and is by far the most widespread and well-known type of data analysis.
• As you have seen, it holds descriptive, diagnostic, predictive, and prescriptive methods, which in turn hold some of the most important techniques available today, such as clustering and forecasting.
• It can be broken down into mathematical and AI analysis.
• Importance : Very high . Quantitative analysis is a must for anyone interesting in becoming or improving as a data analyst.
• Nature of Data: data treated under quantitative analysis is, quite simply, quantitative. It encompasses all numeric data.
• Motive: to extract insights. (Note: we’re at the top of the pyramid, this gets more insightful as we move down.)

Qualitative Analysis

• It accounts for less than 30% of all data analysis and is common in social sciences .
• It can refer to the simple recognition of qualitative elements, which is not analytic in any way, but most often refers to methods that assign numeric values to non-numeric data for analysis.
• Because of this, some argue that it’s ultimately a quantitative type.
• Importance: Medium. In general, knowing qualitative data analysis is not common or even necessary for corporate roles. However, for researchers working in social sciences, its importance is very high .
• Nature of Data: data treated under qualitative analysis is non-numeric. However, as part of the analysis, analysts turn non-numeric data into numbers, at which point many argue it is no longer qualitative analysis.
• Motive: to extract insights. (This will be more important as we move down the pyramid.)

Mathematical Analysis

• Description: mathematical data analysis is a subtype of qualitative data analysis that designates methods and techniques based on statistics, algebra, and logical reasoning to extract insights. It stands in opposition to artificial intelligence analysis.
• Importance: Very High. The most widespread methods and techniques fall under mathematical analysis. In fact, it’s so common that many people use “quantitative” and “mathematical” analysis interchangeably.
• Nature of Data: numeric. By definition, all data under mathematical analysis are numbers.
• Motive: to extract measurable insights that can be used to act upon.

Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning Analysis

• Description: artificial intelligence and machine learning analyses designate techniques based on the titular skills. They are not traditionally mathematical, but they are quantitative since they use numbers. Applications of AI & ML analysis techniques are developing, but they’re not yet mainstream enough to show promise across the field.
• Importance: Medium . As of today (September 2020), you don’t need to be fluent in AI & ML data analysis to be a great analyst. BUT, if it’s a field that interests you, learn it. Many believe that in 10 year’s time its importance will be very high .
• Nature of Data: numeric.
• Motive: to create calculations that build on themselves in order and extract insights without direct input from a human.

Descriptive Analysis

• Description: descriptive analysis is a subtype of mathematical data analysis that uses methods and techniques to provide information about the size, dispersion, groupings, and behavior of data sets. This may sounds complicated, but just think about mean, median, and mode: all three are types of descriptive analysis. They provide information about the data set. We’ll look at specific techniques below.
• Importance: Very high. Descriptive analysis is among the most commonly used data analyses in both corporations and research today.
• Nature of Data: the nature of data under descriptive statistics is sets. A set is simply a collection of numbers that behaves in predictable ways. Data reflects real life, and there are patterns everywhere to be found. Descriptive analysis describes those patterns.
• Motive: the motive behind descriptive analysis is to understand how numbers in a set group together, how far apart they are from each other, and how often they occur. As with most statistical analysis, the more data points there are, the easier it is to describe the set.

Diagnostic Analysis

• Description: diagnostic analysis answers the question “why did it happen?” It is an advanced type of mathematical data analysis that manipulates multiple techniques, but does not own any single one. Analysts engage in diagnostic analysis when they try to explain why.
• Importance: Very high. Diagnostics are probably the most important type of data analysis for people who don’t do analysis because they’re valuable to anyone who’s curious. They’re most common in corporations, as managers often only want to know the “why.”
• Nature of Data : data under diagnostic analysis are data sets. These sets in themselves are not enough under diagnostic analysis. Instead, the analyst must know what’s behind the numbers in order to explain “why.” That’s what makes diagnostics so challenging yet so valuable.
• Motive: the motive behind diagnostics is to diagnose — to understand why.

Predictive Analysis

• Description: predictive analysis uses past data to project future data. It’s very often one of the first kinds of analysis new researchers and corporate analysts use because it is intuitive. It is a subtype of the mathematical type of data analysis, and its three notable techniques are regression, moving average, and exponential smoothing.
• Importance: Very high. Predictive analysis is critical for any data analyst working in a corporate environment. Companies always want to know what the future will hold — especially for their revenue.
• Nature of Data: Because past and future imply time, predictive data always includes an element of time. Whether it’s minutes, hours, days, months, or years, we call this time series data . In fact, this data is so important that I’ll mention it twice so you don’t forget: predictive analysis uses time series data .
• Motive: the motive for investigating time series data with predictive analysis is to predict the future in the most analytical way possible.

Prescriptive Analysis

• Description: prescriptive analysis is a subtype of mathematical analysis that answers the question “what will happen if we do X?” It’s largely underestimated in the data analysis world because it requires diagnostic and descriptive analyses to be done before it even starts. More than simple predictive analysis, prescriptive analysis builds entire data models to show how a simple change could impact the ensemble.
• Importance: High. Prescriptive analysis is most common under the finance function in many companies. Financial analysts use it to build a financial model of the financial statements that show how that data will change given alternative inputs.
• Nature of Data: the nature of data in prescriptive analysis is data sets. These data sets contain patterns that respond differently to various inputs. Data that is useful for prescriptive analysis contains correlations between different variables. It’s through these correlations that we establish patterns and prescribe action on this basis. This analysis cannot be performed on data that exists in a vacuum — it must be viewed on the backdrop of the tangibles behind it.
• Motive: the motive for prescriptive analysis is to establish, with an acceptable degree of certainty, what results we can expect given a certain action. As you might expect, this necessitates that the analyst or researcher be aware of the world behind the data, not just the data itself.

Clustering Method

• Description: the clustering method groups data points together based on their relativeness closeness to further explore and treat them based on these groupings. There are two ways to group clusters: intuitively and statistically (or K-means).
• Importance: Very high. Though most corporate roles group clusters intuitively based on management criteria, a solid understanding of how to group them mathematically is an excellent descriptive and diagnostic approach to allow for prescriptive analysis thereafter.
• Nature of Data : the nature of data useful for clustering is sets with 1 or more data fields. While most people are used to looking at only two dimensions (x and y), clustering becomes more accurate the more fields there are.
• Motive: the motive for clustering is to understand how data sets group and to explore them further based on those groups.
• Here’s an example set:

Classification Method

• Description: the classification method aims to separate and group data points based on common characteristics . This can be done intuitively or statistically.
• Importance: High. While simple on the surface, classification can become quite complex. It’s very valuable in corporate and research environments, but can feel like its not worth the work. A good analyst can execute it quickly to deliver results.
• Nature of Data: the nature of data useful for classification is data sets. As we will see, it can be used on qualitative data as well as quantitative. This method requires knowledge of the substance behind the data, not just the numbers themselves.
• Motive: the motive for classification is group data not based on mathematical relationships (which would be clustering), but by predetermined outputs. This is why it’s less useful for diagnostic analysis, and more useful for prescriptive analysis.

Forecasting Method

• Description: the forecasting method uses time past series data to forecast the future.
• Importance: Very high. Forecasting falls under predictive analysis and is arguably the most common and most important method in the corporate world. It is less useful in research, which prefers to understand the known rather than speculate about the future.
• Nature of Data: data useful for forecasting is time series data, which, as we’ve noted, always includes a variable of time.
• Motive: the motive for the forecasting method is the same as that of prescriptive analysis: the confidently estimate future values.

Optimization Method

• Description: the optimization method maximized or minimizes values in a set given a set of criteria. It is arguably most common in prescriptive analysis. In mathematical terms, it is maximizing or minimizing a function given certain constraints.
• Importance: Very high. The idea of optimization applies to more analysis types than any other method. In fact, some argue that it is the fundamental driver behind data analysis. You would use it everywhere in research and in a corporation.
• Nature of Data: the nature of optimizable data is a data set of at least two points.
• Motive: the motive behind optimization is to achieve the best result possible given certain conditions.

Content Analysis Method

• Description: content analysis is a method of qualitative analysis that quantifies textual data to track themes across a document. It’s most common in academic fields and in social sciences, where written content is the subject of inquiry.
• Importance: High. In a corporate setting, content analysis as such is less common. If anything Nïave Bayes (a technique we’ll look at below) is the closest corporations come to text. However, it is of the utmost importance for researchers. If you’re a researcher, check out this article on content analysis .
• Nature of Data: data useful for content analysis is textual data.
• Motive: the motive behind content analysis is to understand themes expressed in a large text

Narrative Analysis Method

• Description: narrative analysis is a method of qualitative analysis that quantifies stories to trace themes in them. It’s differs from content analysis because it focuses on stories rather than research documents, and the techniques used are slightly different from those in content analysis (very nuances and outside the scope of this article).
• Importance: Low. Unless you are highly specialized in working with stories, narrative analysis rare.
• Nature of Data: the nature of the data useful for the narrative analysis method is narrative text.
• Motive: the motive for narrative analysis is to uncover hidden patterns in narrative text.

Discourse Analysis Method

• Description: the discourse analysis method falls under qualitative analysis and uses thematic coding to trace patterns in real-life discourse. That said, real-life discourse is oral, so it must first be transcribed into text.
• Importance: Low. Unless you are focused on understand real-world idea sharing in a research setting, this kind of analysis is less common than the others on this list.
• Nature of Data: the nature of data useful in discourse analysis is first audio files, then transcriptions of those audio files.
• Motive: the motive behind discourse analysis is to trace patterns of real-world discussions. (As a spooky sidenote, have you ever felt like your phone microphone was listening to you and making reading suggestions? If it was, the method was discourse analysis.)

Framework Analysis Method

• Description: the framework analysis method falls under qualitative analysis and uses similar thematic coding techniques to content analysis. However, where content analysis aims to discover themes, framework analysis starts with a framework and only considers elements that fall in its purview.
• Importance: Low. As with the other textual analysis methods, framework analysis is less common in corporate settings. Even in the world of research, only some use it. Strangely, it’s very common for legislative and political research.
• Nature of Data: the nature of data useful for framework analysis is textual.
• Motive: the motive behind framework analysis is to understand what themes and parts of a text match your search criteria.

Grounded Theory Method

• Description: the grounded theory method falls under qualitative analysis and uses thematic coding to build theories around those themes.
• Importance: Low. Like other qualitative analysis techniques, grounded theory is less common in the corporate world. Even among researchers, you would be hard pressed to find many using it. Though powerful, it’s simply too rare to spend time learning.
• Nature of Data: the nature of data useful in the grounded theory method is textual.
• Motive: the motive of grounded theory method is to establish a series of theories based on themes uncovered from a text.

Clustering Technique: K-Means

• Description: k-means is a clustering technique in which data points are grouped in clusters that have the closest means. Though not considered AI or ML, it inherently requires the use of supervised learning to reevaluate clusters as data points are added. Clustering techniques can be used in diagnostic, descriptive, & prescriptive data analyses.
• Importance: Very important. If you only take 3 things from this article, k-means clustering should be part of it. It is useful in any situation where n observations have multiple characteristics and we want to put them in groups.
• Nature of Data: the nature of data is at least one characteristic per observation, but the more the merrier.
• Motive: the motive for clustering techniques such as k-means is to group observations together and either understand or react to them.

Regression Technique

• Description: simple and multivariable regressions use either one independent variable or combination of multiple independent variables to calculate a correlation to a single dependent variable using constants. Regressions are almost synonymous with correlation today.
• Importance: Very high. Along with clustering, if you only take 3 things from this article, regression techniques should be part of it. They’re everywhere in corporate and research fields alike.
• Nature of Data: the nature of data used is regressions is data sets with “n” number of observations and as many variables as are reasonable. It’s important, however, to distinguish between time series data and regression data. You cannot use regressions or time series data without accounting for time. The easier way is to use techniques under the forecasting method.
• Motive: The motive behind regression techniques is to understand correlations between independent variable(s) and a dependent one.

Nïave Bayes Technique

• Description: Nïave Bayes is a classification technique that uses simple probability to classify items based previous classifications. In plain English, the formula would be “the chance that thing with trait x belongs to class c depends on (=) the overall chance of trait x belonging to class c, multiplied by the overall chance of class c, divided by the overall chance of getting trait x.” As a formula, it’s P(c|x) = P(x|c) * P(c) / P(x).
• Importance: High. Nïave Bayes is a very common, simplistic classification techniques because it’s effective with large data sets and it can be applied to any instant in which there is a class. Google, for example, might use it to group webpages into groups for certain search engine queries.
• Nature of Data: the nature of data for Nïave Bayes is at least one class and at least two traits in a data set.
• Motive: the motive behind Nïave Bayes is to classify observations based on previous data. It’s thus considered part of predictive analysis.

Cohorts Technique

• Description: cohorts technique is a type of clustering method used in behavioral sciences to separate users by common traits. As with clustering, it can be done intuitively or mathematically, the latter of which would simply be k-means.
• Importance: Very high. With regard to resembles k-means, the cohort technique is more of a high-level counterpart. In fact, most people are familiar with it as a part of Google Analytics. It’s most common in marketing departments in corporations, rather than in research.
• Nature of Data: the nature of cohort data is data sets in which users are the observation and other fields are used as defining traits for each cohort.
• Motive: the motive for cohort analysis techniques is to group similar users and analyze how you retain them and how the churn.

Factor Technique

• Description: the factor analysis technique is a way of grouping many traits into a single factor to expedite analysis. For example, factors can be used as traits for Nïave Bayes classifications instead of more general fields.
• Importance: High. While not commonly employed in corporations, factor analysis is hugely valuable. Good data analysts use it to simplify their projects and communicate them more clearly.
• Nature of Data: the nature of data useful in factor analysis techniques is data sets with a large number of fields on its observations.
• Motive: the motive for using factor analysis techniques is to reduce the number of fields in order to more quickly analyze and communicate findings.

Linear Discriminants Technique

• Description: linear discriminant analysis techniques are similar to regressions in that they use one or more independent variable to determine a dependent variable; however, the linear discriminant technique falls under a classifier method since it uses traits as independent variables and class as a dependent variable. In this way, it becomes a classifying method AND a predictive method.
• Importance: High. Though the analyst world speaks of and uses linear discriminants less commonly, it’s a highly valuable technique to keep in mind as you progress in data analysis.
• Nature of Data: the nature of data useful for the linear discriminant technique is data sets with many fields.
• Motive: the motive for using linear discriminants is to classify observations that would be otherwise too complex for simple techniques like Nïave Bayes.

Exponential Smoothing Technique

• Description: exponential smoothing is a technique falling under the forecasting method that uses a smoothing factor on prior data in order to predict future values. It can be linear or adjusted for seasonality. The basic principle behind exponential smoothing is to use a percent weight (value between 0 and 1 called alpha) on more recent values in a series and a smaller percent weight on less recent values. The formula is f(x) = current period value * alpha + previous period value * 1-alpha.
• Importance: High. Most analysts still use the moving average technique (covered next) for forecasting, though it is less efficient than exponential moving, because it’s easy to understand. However, good analysts will have exponential smoothing techniques in their pocket to increase the value of their forecasts.
• Nature of Data: the nature of data useful for exponential smoothing is time series data . Time series data has time as part of its fields .
• Motive: the motive for exponential smoothing is to forecast future values with a smoothing variable.

Moving Average Technique

• Description: the moving average technique falls under the forecasting method and uses an average of recent values to predict future ones. For example, to predict rainfall in April, you would take the average of rainfall from January to March. It’s simple, yet highly effective.
• Importance: Very high. While I’m personally not a huge fan of moving averages due to their simplistic nature and lack of consideration for seasonality, they’re the most common forecasting technique and therefore very important.
• Nature of Data: the nature of data useful for moving averages is time series data .
• Motive: the motive for moving averages is to predict future values is a simple, easy-to-communicate way.

Neural Networks Technique

• Description: neural networks are a highly complex artificial intelligence technique that replicate a human’s neural analysis through a series of hyper-rapid computations and comparisons that evolve in real time. This technique is so complex that an analyst must use computer programs to perform it.
• Importance: Medium. While the potential for neural networks is theoretically unlimited, it’s still little understood and therefore uncommon. You do not need to know it by any means in order to be a data analyst.
• Nature of Data: the nature of data useful for neural networks is data sets of astronomical size, meaning with 100s of 1000s of fields and the same number of row at a minimum .
• Motive: the motive for neural networks is to understand wildly complex phenomenon and data to thereafter act on it.

Decision Tree Technique

• Description: the decision tree technique uses artificial intelligence algorithms to rapidly calculate possible decision pathways and their outcomes on a real-time basis. It’s so complex that computer programs are needed to perform it.
• Importance: Medium. As with neural networks, decision trees with AI are too little understood and are therefore uncommon in corporate and research settings alike.
• Nature of Data: the nature of data useful for the decision tree technique is hierarchical data sets that show multiple optional fields for each preceding field.
• Motive: the motive for decision tree techniques is to compute the optimal choices to make in order to achieve a desired result.

Evolutionary Programming Technique

• Description: the evolutionary programming technique uses a series of neural networks, sees how well each one fits a desired outcome, and selects only the best to test and retest. It’s called evolutionary because is resembles the process of natural selection by weeding out weaker options.
• Importance: Medium. As with the other AI techniques, evolutionary programming just isn’t well-understood enough to be usable in many cases. It’s complexity also makes it hard to explain in corporate settings and difficult to defend in research settings.
• Nature of Data: the nature of data in evolutionary programming is data sets of neural networks, or data sets of data sets.
• Motive: the motive for using evolutionary programming is similar to decision trees: understanding the best possible option from complex data.
• Video example :

Fuzzy Logic Technique

• Description: fuzzy logic is a type of computing based on “approximate truths” rather than simple truths such as “true” and “false.” It is essentially two tiers of classification. For example, to say whether “Apples are good,” you need to first classify that “Good is x, y, z.” Only then can you say apples are good. Another way to see it helping a computer see truth like humans do: “definitely true, probably true, maybe true, probably false, definitely false.”
• Importance: Medium. Like the other AI techniques, fuzzy logic is uncommon in both research and corporate settings, which means it’s less important in today’s world.
• Nature of Data: the nature of fuzzy logic data is huge data tables that include other huge data tables with a hierarchy including multiple subfields for each preceding field.
• Motive: the motive of fuzzy logic to replicate human truth valuations in a computer is to model human decisions based on past data. The obvious possible application is marketing.

Text Analysis Technique

• Description: text analysis techniques fall under the qualitative data analysis type and use text to extract insights.
• Importance: Medium. Text analysis techniques, like all the qualitative analysis type, are most valuable for researchers.
• Nature of Data: the nature of data useful in text analysis is words.
• Motive: the motive for text analysis is to trace themes in a text across sets of very long documents, such as books.

Coding Technique

• Description: the coding technique is used in textual analysis to turn ideas into uniform phrases and analyze the number of times and the ways in which those ideas appear. For this reason, some consider it a quantitative technique as well. You can learn more about coding and the other qualitative techniques here .
• Importance: Very high. If you’re a researcher working in social sciences, coding is THE analysis techniques, and for good reason. It’s a great way to add rigor to analysis. That said, it’s less common in corporate settings.
• Nature of Data: the nature of data useful for coding is long text documents.
• Motive: the motive for coding is to make tracing ideas on paper more than an exercise of the mind by quantifying it and understanding is through descriptive methods.

Idea Pattern Technique

• Description: the idea pattern analysis technique fits into coding as the second step of the process. Once themes and ideas are coded, simple descriptive analysis tests may be run. Some people even cluster the ideas!
• Importance: Very high. If you’re a researcher, idea pattern analysis is as important as the coding itself.
• Nature of Data: the nature of data useful for idea pattern analysis is already coded themes.
• Motive: the motive for the idea pattern technique is to trace ideas in otherwise unmanageably-large documents.

Word Frequency Technique

• Description: word frequency is a qualitative technique that stands in opposition to coding and uses an inductive approach to locate specific words in a document in order to understand its relevance. Word frequency is essentially the descriptive analysis of qualitative data because it uses stats like mean, median, and mode to gather insights.
• Importance: High. As with the other qualitative approaches, word frequency is very important in social science research, but less so in corporate settings.
• Nature of Data: the nature of data useful for word frequency is long, informative documents.
• Motive: the motive for word frequency is to locate target words to determine the relevance of a document in question.

Types of data analysis in research

Types of data analysis in research methodology include every item discussed in this article. As a list, they are:

• Quantitative
• Qualitative
• Mathematical
• Machine Learning and AI
• Descriptive
• Prescriptive
• Classification
• Forecasting
• Optimization
• Grounded theory
• Artificial Neural Networks
• Decision Trees
• Evolutionary Programming
• Fuzzy Logic
• Text analysis
• Idea Pattern Analysis
• Word Frequency Analysis
• Nïave Bayes
• Exponential smoothing
• Moving average
• Linear discriminant

Types of data analysis in qualitative research

As a list, the types of data analysis in qualitative research are the following methods:

Types of data analysis in quantitative research

As a list, the types of data analysis in quantitative research are:

Data analysis methods

As a list, data analysis methods are:

• Content (qualitative)
• Narrative (qualitative)
• Discourse (qualitative)
• Framework (qualitative)
• Grounded theory (qualitative)

Quantitative data analysis methods

As a list, quantitative data analysis methods are:

Tabular View of Data Analysis Types, Methods, and Techniques

About the author.

Noah is the founder & Editor-in-Chief at AnalystAnswers. He is a transatlantic professional and entrepreneur with 5+ years of corporate finance and data analytics experience, as well as 3+ years in consumer financial products and business software. He started AnalystAnswers to provide aspiring professionals with accessible explanations of otherwise dense finance and data concepts. Noah believes everyone can benefit from an analytical mindset in growing digital world. When he's not busy at work, Noah likes to explore new European cities, exercise, and spend time with friends and family.

File available immediately.

Notice: JavaScript is required for this content.

Effective Experiment Design and Data Analysis in Transportation Research (2012)

Chapter: chapter 3 - examples of effective experiment design and data analysis in transportation research.

Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

10 Examples of Effective Experiment Design and Data Analysis in Transportation Research About this Chapter This chapter provides a wide variety of examples of research questions. The examples demon- strate varying levels of detail with regard to experiment designs and the statistical analyses required. The number and types of examples were selected after consulting with many practitioners. The attempt was made to provide a couple of detailed examples in each of several areas of transporta- tion practice. For each type of problem or analysis, some comments also appear about research topics in other areas that might be addressed using the same approach. Questions that were briefly introduced in Chapter 2 are addressed in considerably more depth in the context of these examples. All the examples are organized and presented using the outline below. Where applicable, ref- erences to the two-volume primer produced under NCHRP Project 20-45 have been provided to encourage the reader to obtain more detail about calculation techniques and more technical discussion of issues. Basic Outline for Examples The numbered outline below is the model for the structure of all of the examples that follow. 1. Research Question/Problem Statement: A simple statement of the research question is given. For example, in the maintenance category, does crack sealant A perform better than crack sealant B? 2. Identification and Description of Variables: The dependent and independent variables are identified and described. The latter includes an indication of whether, for example, the variables are discrete or continuous. 3. Data Collection: A hypothetical scenario is presented to describe how, where, and when data should be collected. As appropriate, reference is made to conventions or requirements for some types of data (e.g., if delay times at an intersection are being calculated before and after some treatment, the data collected need to be consistent with the requirements in the Highway Capacity Manual). Typical problems are addressed, such as sample size, the need for control groups, and so forth. 4. Specification of Analysis Technique and Data Analysis: The links between successfully framing the research question, fully describing the variables that need to be considered, and the specification of the appropriate analysis technique are highlighted in each example. Refer- ences to NCHRP Project 20-45 are provided for additional detail. The appropriate types of statistical test(s) are described for the specific example. 5. Interpreting the Results: In each example, results that can be expected from the analysis are discussed in terms of what they mean from a statistical perspective (e.g., the t-test result from C h a p t e r 3

examples of effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 11 a comparison of means indicates whether the mean values of two distributions can be con- sidered to be equal with a specified degree of confidence) as well as an operational perspective (e.g., judging whether the difference is large enough to make an operational difference). In each example, the typical results and their limitations are discussed. 6. Conclusion and Discussion: This section recaps how the early steps in the process lead directly to the later ones. Comments are made regarding how changes in the early steps can affect not only the results of the analysis but also the appropriateness of the approach. 7. Applications in Other Areas of Transportation Research: Each example includes a short list of typical applications in other areas of transportation research for which the approach or analysis technique would be appropriate. Techniques Covered in the Examples The determination of what kinds of statistical techniques to include in the examples was made after consulting with a variety of professionals and examining responses to a survey of research- oriented practitioners. The examples are not exhaustive insofar as not every type of statistical analysis is covered. However, the attempt has been made to cover a representative sample of tech- niques that the practitioner is most likely to encounter in undertaking or supervising research- oriented projects. The following techniques are introduced in one or more examples: • Descriptive statistics • Fitting distributions/goodness of fit (used in one example) • Simple one- and two-sample comparison of means • Simple comparisons of multiple means using analysis of variance (ANOVA) • Factorial designs (also ANOVA) • Simple comparisons of means before and after some treatment • Complex before-and-after comparisons involving control groups • Trend analysis • Regression • Logit analysis (used in one example) • Survey design and analysis • Simulation • Non-parametric methods (used in one example) Although the attempt has been made to make the examples as readable as possible, some tech- nical terms may be unfamiliar to some readers. Detailed definitions for most applicable statistical terms are available in the glossary in NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Appendix A. Most defini- tions used here are consistent with those contained in NCHRP Project 20-45, which contains useful information for everyone from the beginning researcher to the most accomplished statistician. Some variations appear in the notations used in the examples. For example, in statistical analy- sis an alternate hypothesis may be represented by Ha or by H1, and readers will find both notations used in this report. The examples were developed by several authors with differing backgrounds, and latitude was deliberately given to the authors to use the notations with which they are most familiar. The variations have been included purposefully to acquaint readers with the fact that the same concepts (e.g., something as simple as a mean value) may be noted in various ways by different authors or analysts. Finally, the more widely used techniques, such as analysis of variance (ANOVA), are applied in more than one example. Readers interested in ANOVA are encouraged to read all the ANOVA examples as each example presents different aspects of or perspectives on the approach, and computational techniques presented in one example may not be repeated in later examples (although a citation typically is provided).

12 effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research Areas Covered in the Examples Transportation research is very broad, encompassing many fields. Based on consultation with many research-oriented professionals and a survey of practitioners, key areas of research were identified. Although these areas have lots of overlap, explicit examples in the following areas are included: • Construction • Environment • Lab testing and instrumentation • Maintenance • Materials • Pavements • Public transportation • Structures/bridges • Traffic operations • Traffic safety • Transportation planning • Work zones The 21 examples provided on the following pages begin with the most straightforward ana- lytical approaches (i.e., descriptive statistics) and progress to more sophisticated approaches. Table 1 lists the examples along with the area of research and method of analysis for each example. Example 1: Structures/Bridges; Descriptive Statistics Area: Structures/bridges Method of Analysis: Descriptive statistics (exploring and presenting data to describe existing conditions and develop a basis for further analysis) 1. Research Question/Problem Statement: An engineer for a state agency wants to determine the functional and structural condition of a select number of highway bridges located across the state. Data are obtained for 100 bridges scheduled for routine inspection. The data will be used to develop bridge rehabilitation and/or replacement programs. The objective of this analysis is to provide an overview of the bridge conditions, and to present various methods to display the data in a concise and meaningful manner. Question/Issue Use collected data to describe existing conditions and prepare for future analysis. In this case, bridge inspection data from the state are to be studied and summarized. 2. Identification and Description of Variables: Bridge inspection generally entails collection of numerous variables that include location information, traffic data, structural elements’ type and condition, and functional characteristics. In this example, the variables are: bridge condition ratings of the deck, superstructure, and substructure; and overall condition of the bridge. Based on the severity of deterioration and the extent of spread through a bridge component, a condition rating is assigned on a discrete scale from 0 (failed) to 9 (excellent). These ratings (in addition to several other factors) are used in categorization of a bridge in one of three overall conditions: not deficient; structurally deficient; or functionally obsolete.

examples of effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 13 Example Area Method of Analysis 1 Structures/bridges Descriptive statistics (exploring and presenting data to describe existing conditions) 2 Public transport Descriptive statistics (organizing and presenting data to describe a system or component) 3 Environment Descriptive statistics (organizing and presenting data to explain current conditions) 4 Traffic operations Goodness of fit (chi-square test; determining if observed/collected data fit a certain distribution) 5 Construction Simple comparisons to specified values (t-test to compare the mean value of a small sample to a standard or other requirement) 6 Maintenance Simple two-sample comparison (t-test for paired comparisons; comparing the mean values of two sets of matched data) 7 Materials Simple two-sample comparisons (t-test for paired comparisons and the F-test for comparing variances) 8 Laboratory testing and/or instrumentation Simple ANOVA (comparing the mean values of more than two samples using the F-test) 9 Materials Simple ANOVA (comparing more than two mean values and the F-test for equality of means) 10 Pavements Simple ANOVA (comparing the mean values of more than two samples using the F-test) 11 Pavements Factorial design (an ANOVA approach exploring the effects of varying more than one independent variable) 12 Work zones Simple before-and-after comparisons (exploring the effect of some treatment before it is applied versus after it is applied) 13 Traffic safety Complex before-and-after comparisons using control groups (examining the effect of some treatment or application with consideration of other factors) 14 Work zones Trend analysis (examining, describing, and modeling how something changes over time) 15 Structures/bridges Trend analysis (examining a trend over time) 16 Transportation planning Multiple regression analysis (developing and testing proposed linear models with more than one independent variable) 17 Traffic operations Regression analysis (developing a model to predict the values that a dependent variable can take as a function of one or more independent variables) 18 Transportation planning Logit and related analysis (developing predictive models when the dependent variable is dichotomous) 19 Public transit Survey design and analysis (organizing survey data for statistical analysis) 20 Traffic operations Simulation (using field data to simulate or model operations or outcomes) 21 Traffic safety Non-parametric methods (methods to be used when data do not follow assumed or conventional distributions) Table 1. Examples provided in this report.

14 effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 3. Data Collection: Data are collected at 100 scheduled locations by bridge inspectors. It is important to note that the bridge condition rating scale is based on subjective categories, and there may be inherent variability among inspectors in their assignment of ratings to bridge components. A sample of data is compiled to document the bridge condition rating of the three primary structural components and the overall condition by location and ownership (Table 2). Notice that the overall condition of a bridge is not necessarily based only on the condition rating of its components (e.g., they cannot just be added). 4. Specification of Analysis Technique and Data Analysis: The two primary variables of inter- est are bridge condition rating and overall condition. The overall condition of the bridge is a categorical variable with three possible values: not deficient; structurally deficient; and functionally obsolete. The frequencies of these values in the given data set are calculated and displayed in the pie chart below. A pie chart provides a visualization of the relative proportions of bridges falling into each category that is often easier to communicate to the reader than a table showing the same information (Figure 1). Another way to look at the overall bridge condition variable is by cross-tabulation of the three condition categories with the two location categories (urban and rural), as shown in Table 3. A cross-tabulation provides the joint distribution of two (or more) variables such that each cell represents the frequency of occurrence of a specific combination of pos- sible values. For example, as seen in Table 3, there are 10 structurally deficient bridges in rural areas, which represent 11.4% of all rural area bridges inspected. The numbers in the parentheses are column percentages and add up to 100%. Table 3 also shows that 88 of the bridges inspected were located in rural areas, whereas 12 were located in urban areas. The mean values of the bridge condition rating variable for deck, superstructure, and sub- structure are shown in Table 4. These have been calculated by taking the sum of all the values and then dividing by the total number of cases (100 in this example). Generally, a condition rating Bridge No. Owner Location Bridge Condition Rating Overall Condition Deck Superstructure Substructure 1 State Rural 8 8 8 ND* 7 Local agency Rural 6 6 6 FO* 39 State Urban 6 6 2 SD* 69 State park Rural 7 5 5 SD 92 City Urban 5 6 6 ND *ND = not deficient; FO: functionally obsolete; SD: structurally deficient. Table 2. Sample bridge inspection data. Structurally Deficient (SD), 13% Functionally Obsolete (FO), 10% Neither SD/FO, 77% Figure 1. Highway bridge conditions.

examples of effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 15 of 4 or below indicates deficiency in a structural component. For the purpose of comparison, the mean bridge condition rating of the 13 structurally deficient bridges also is provided. Notice that while the rating scale for the bridge conditions is discrete with values ranging from 0 (failure) to 9 (excellent), the average bridge condition variable is continuous. Therefore, an average score of 6.47 would indicate overall condition of all bridges to be between 6 (satisfactory) and 7 (good). The combined bridge condition rating of deck, superstructure, and substructure is not defined; therefore calculating the mean of the three components’ average rating would make no sense. Also, the average bridge condition rating of functionally obsolete bridges is not calculated because other functional characteristics also accounted for this designation. The distributions of the bridge condition ratings for deck, superstructure, and substructure are shown in Figure 2. Based on the cut-off point of 4, approximately 7% of all bridge decks, 2% of all superstructures, and 5% of all substructures are deficient. 5. Interpreting the Results: The results indicate that a majority of bridges (77%) are not struc- turally or functionally deficient. The inspections were carried out on bridges primarily located in rural areas (88 out of 100). The bridge condition variable may also be cross-tabulated with the ownership variable to determine distribution by jurisdiction. The average condition ratings for the three bridge components for all bridges lies between 6 (satisfactory, some minor problems) and 7 (good, no problems noted). 6. Conclusion and Discussion: This example illustrates how to summarize and present quan- titative and qualitative data on bridge conditions. It is important to understand the mea- surement scale of variables in order to interpret the results correctly. Bridge inspection data collected over time may also be analyzed to determine trends in the condition of bridges in a given area. Trend analysis is addressed in Example 15 (structures). 7. Applications in Other Areas of Transportation Research: Descriptive statistics could be used to present data in other areas of transportation research, such as: • Transportation Planning—to assess the distribution of travel times between origin- destination pairs in an urban area. Overall averages could also be calculated. • Traffic Operations—to analyze the average delay per vehicle at a railroad crossing. Rating Category Mean Value Overall average bridge condition rating (deck) 6.20 Overall average bridge condition rating (superstructure) 6.47 Overall average bridge condition rating (substructure) 6.08 Average bridge condition rating of structurally deficient bridges (deck) 4.92 Average bridge condition rating of structurally deficient bridges (superstructure) 5.30 Average bridge condition rating of structurally deficient bridges (substructure) 4.54 Table 4. Bridge condition ratings. Rural Urban Total Structurally deficient 10 (11.4%) 3 (25.0%) 13 Functionally obsolete 6 (6.8%) 4 (33.3%) 10 Not deficient 72 (81.8%) 5 (41.7%) 77 Total 88 (100%) 12 (100%) 100 Table 3. Cross-tabulation of bridge condition by location.

16 effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research • Traffic Operations/Safety—to examine the frequency of turning violations at driveways with various turning restrictions. • Work Zones, Environment—to assess the average energy consumption during various stages of construction. Example 2: Public Transport; Descriptive Statistics Area: Public transport Method of Analysis: Descriptive statistics (organizing and presenting data to describe a system or component) 1. Research Question/Problem Statement: The manager of a transit agency would like to present information to the board of commissioners on changes in revenue that resulted from a change in the fare. The transit system provides three basic types of service: local bus routes, express bus routes, and demand-responsive bus service. There are 15 local bus routes, 10 express routes, and 1 demand-responsive system. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Condition Ratings Pe rc en ta ge o f S tru ctu re s Deck Superstructure Substructure Figure 2. Bridge condition ratings. Question/Issue Use data to describe some change over time. In this instance, data from 2008 and 2009 are used to describe the change in revenue on each route/part of a transit system when the fare structure was changed from variable (per mile) to fixed fares. 2. Identification and Description of Variables: Revenue data are available for each route on the local and express bus system and the demand-responsive system as a whole for the years 2008 and 2009. 3. Data Collection: Revenue data were collected on each route for both 2008 and 2009. The annual revenue for the demand-responsive system was also collected. These data are shown in Table 5. 4. Specification of Analysis Technique and Data Analysis: The objective of this analysis is to present the impact of changing the fare system in a series of graphs. The presentation is intended to show the impact on each component of the transit system as well as the impact on overall system revenue. The impact of the fare change on the overall revenue is best shown with a bar graph (Figure 3). The variation in the impact across system components can be illustrated in a similar graph (Figure 4). A pie chart also can be used to illustrate the relative impact on each system component (Figure 5).

examples of effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 17 Bus Route 2008 Revenue 2009 Revenue Local Route 1 $350,500 $365,700 Local Route 2 $263,000 $271,500 Local Route 3 $450,800 $460,700 Local Route 4 $294,300 $306,400 Local Route 5 $173,900 $184,600 Local Route 6 $367,800 $375,100 Local Route 7 $415,800 $430,300 Local Route 8 $145,600 $149,100 Local Route 9 $248,200 $260,800 Local Route 10 $310,400 $318,300 Local Route 11 $444,300 $459,200 Local Route 12 $208,400 $205,600 Local Route 13 $407,600 $412,400 Local Route 14 $161,500 $169,300 Local Route 15 $325,100 $340,200 Express Route 1 $85,400 $83,600 Express Route 2 $110,300 $109,200 Express Route 3 $65,800 $66,200 Express Route 4 $125,300 $127,600 Express Route 5 $90,800 $90,400 Express Route 6 $125,800 $123,400 Express Route 7 $87,200 $86,900 Express Route 8 $68.300 $67,200 Express Route 9 $110,100 $112,300 Express Route 10 $73,200 $72,100 Demand-Responsive System $510,100 $521,300 Table 5. Revenue by route or type of service and year. 6.02 6.17 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2008 2009 Total System Revenue Re ve nu e (M illi on $ ) Figure 3. Impact of fare change on overall revenue.

18 effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research Express Buses, 15.7% Express Buses, 15.2% Local Buses, 76.3% Local Buses, 75.8% Demand Responsive, 8.5% Demand Responsive, 8.5% 2008 2009 Figure 5. Pie charts illustrating percent of revenue from each component of a transit system. If it is important to display the variability in the impact within the various bus routes in the local bus or express bus operations, this also can be illustrated (Figure 6). This type of diagram shows the maximum value, minimum value, and mean value of the percent increase in revenue across the 15 local bus routes and the 10 express bus routes. 5. Interpreting the results: These results indicate that changing from a variable fare based on trip length (2008) to a fixed fare (2009) on both the local bus routes and the express bus routes had little effect on revenue. On the local bus routes, there was an average increase in revenue of 3.1%. On the express bus routes, there was an average decrease in revenue of 0.4%. These changes altered the percentage of the total system revenue attributed to the local bus routes and the express bus routes. The local bus routes generated 76.3% of the revenue in 2009, compared to 75.8% in 2008. The percentage of revenue generated by the express bus routes dropped from 15.7% to 15.2%, and the demand-responsive system generated 8.5% in both 2008 and 2009. 6. Conclusion and Discussion: The total revenue increased from $6.02 million to $6.17 mil lion. The cost of operating a variable fare system is greater than that of operating a fixed fare system— hence, net income probably increased even more (more revenue, lower cost for fare collection), and the decision to modify the fare system seems reasonable. Notice that the entire discussion Figure 4. Variation in impact of fare change across system components. 0.94 0.51 0.94 0.52 4.57 4.71 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 Local Buses Express Buses Demand Responsive Re ve nu e (M illi on $ ) 2008 2009

examples of effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 19 also is based on the assumption that no other factors changed between 2008 and 2009 that might have affected total revenues. One of the implicit assumptions is that the number of riders remained relatively constant from 1 year to the next. If the ridership had changed, the statistics reported would have to be changed. Using the measure revenue/rider, for example, would help control (or normalize) for the variation in ridership. 7. Applications in Other Areas in Transportation Research: Descriptive statistics are widely used and can convey a great deal of information to a reader. They also can be used to present data in many areas of transportation research, including: • Transportation Planning—to display public response frequency or percentage to various alternative designs. • Traffic Operations—to display the frequency or percentage of crashes by route type or by the type of traffic control devices present at an intersection. • Airport Engineering—to display the arrival pattern of passengers or flights by hour or other time period. • Public Transit—to display the average load factor on buses by time of day. Example 3: Environment; Descriptive Statistics Area: Environment Method of Analysis: Descriptive statistics (organizing and presenting data to explain current conditions) 1. Research Question/Problem Statement: The planning and programming director in Envi- ronmental City wants to determine the current ozone concentration in the city. These data will be compared to data collected after the projects included in the Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) have been completed to determine the effects of these projects on the environ- ment. Because the terrain, the presence of hills or tall buildings, the prevailing wind direction, and the sample station location relative to high volume roads or industrial sites all affect the ozone level, multiple samples are required to determine the ozone concentration level in a city. For this example, air samples are obtained each weekday in the month of July (21 days) at 14 air-sampling stations in the city: 7 in the central city and 7 in the outlying areas of the city. The objective of the analysis is to determine the ozone concentration in the central city, the outlying areas of the city, and the city as a whole. Figure 6. Graph showing variation in revenue increase by type of bus route. -0.4 -1.3 -2.1 3.1 6.2 2.0 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Local Bus Routes Express Bus Routes Percent Increase in Revenue

20 effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 2. Identification and Description of Variables: The variable to be analyzed is the 8-hour average ozone concentration in parts per million (ppm) at each of the 14 air-sampling stations. The 8-hour average concentration is the basis for the EPA standard, and July is selected because ozone levels are temperature sensitive and increase with a rise in the temperature. 3. Data Collection: Ozone concentrations in ppm are recorded for each hour of the day at each of the 14 air-sampling stations. The highest average concentration for any 8-hour period during the day is recorded and tabulated. This results in 294 concentration observations (14 stations for 21 days). Table 6 and Table 7 show the data for the seven central city locations and the seven outlying area locations. 4. Specification of Analysis Technique and Data Analysis: Much of the data used in analyzing transportation issues has year-to-year, month-to-month, day-to-day, and even hour-to-hour variations. For this reason, making only one observation, or even a few observations, may not accurately describe the phenomenon being observed. Thus, standard practice is to obtain several observations and report the mean value of all observations. In this example, the phenomenon being observed is the daily ozone concentration at a series of air-sampling locations. The statistic to be estimated is the mean value of this variable over Question/Issue Use collected data to describe existing conditions and prepare for future analysis. In this example, air pollution levels in the central city, the outlying areas, and the overall city are to be described. Day Station 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 ∑ 1 0.079 0.084 0.081 0.083 0.088 0.086 0.089 0.590 2 0.082 0.087 0.088 0.086 0.086 0.087 0.081 0.597 3 0.080 0.081 0.077 0.072 0.084 0.083 0.081 0.558 4 0.083 0.086 0.082 0.079 0.086 0.087 0.089 0.592 5 0.082 0.087 0.080 0.075 0.090 0.089 0.085 0.588 6 0.075 0.084 0.079 0.076 0.080 0.083 0.081 0.558 7 0.078 0.079 0.080 0.074 0.078 0.080 0.075 0.544 8 0.081 0.077 0.082 0.081 0.076 0.079 0.074 0.540 9 0.088 0.084 0.083 0.085 0.083 0.083 0.088 0.594 10 0.085 0.087 0.086 0.089 0.088 0.087 0.090 0.612 11 0.079 0.082 0.082 0.089 0.091 0.089 0.090 0.602 12 0.078 0.080 0.081 0.086 0.088 0.089 0.089 0.591 13 0.081 0.079 0.077 0.083 0.084 0.085 0.087 0.576 14 0.083 0.080 0.079 0.081 0.080 0.082 0.083 0.568 15 0.084 0.083 0.080 0.085 0.082 0.086 0.085 0.585 16 0.086 0.087 0.085 0.087 0.089 0.090 0.089 0.613 17 0.082 0.085 0.083 0.090 0.087 0.088 0.089 0.604 18 0.080 0.081 0.080 0.087 0.085 0.086 0.088 0.587 19 0.080 0.083 0.077 0.083 0.085 0.084 0.087 0.579 20 0.081 0.084 0.079 0.082 0.081 0.083 0.088 0.578 21 0.082 0.084 0.080 0.081 0.082 0.083 0.085 0.577 ∑ 1.709 1.744 1.701 1.734 1.773 1.789 1.793 12.243 Table 6. Central city 8-hour ozone concentration samples (ppm).

examples of effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 21 the test period selected. The mean value of any data set (x _ ) equals the sum of all observations in the set divided by the total number of observations in the set (n): x x n i i n = = ∑ 1 The variables of interest stated in the research question are the average ozone concentration for the central city, the outlying areas, and the total city. Thus, there are three data sets: the first table, the second table, and the sum of the two tables. The first data set has a sample size of 147; the second data set also has a sample size of 147, and the third data set contains 294 observations. Using the formula just shown, the mean value of the ozone concentration in the central city is calculated as follows: x xi i = = = = ∑ 147 12 243 147 0 083 1 147 . . ppm The mean value of the ozone concentration in the outlying areas of the city is: x xi i = = = = ∑ 147 10 553 147 0 072 1 147 . . ppm The mean value of the ozone concentration for the entire city is: x xi i = = = = ∑ 294 22 796 294 0 078 1 294 . . ppm Day Station 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 ∑ 1 0.072 0.074 0.073 0.071 0.079 0.070 0.074 0.513 2 0.074 0.075 0.077 0.075 0.081 0.075 0.077 0.534 3 0.070 0.072 0.074 0.074 0.083 0.078 0.080 0.531 4 0.067 0.070 0.071 0.077 0.080 0.077 0.081 0.523 5 0.064 0.067 0.068 0.072 0.079 0.078 0.079 0.507 6 0.069 0.068 0.066 0.070 0.075 0.079 0.082 0.509 7 0.071 0.069 0.070 0.071 0.074 0.071 0.077 0.503 8 0.073 0.072 0.074 0.072 0.076 0.073 0.078 0.518 9 0.072 0.075 0.077 0.074 0.078 0.074 0.080 0.530 10 0.074 0.077 0.079 0.077 0.080 0.076 0.079 0.542 11 0.070 0.072 0.075 0.074 0.079 0.074 0.078 0.522 12 0.068 0.067 0.068 0.070 0.074 0.070 0.075 0.492 13 0.065 0.063 0.067 0.068 0.072 0.067 0.071 0.473 14 0.063 0.062 0.067 0.069 0.073 0.068 0.073 0.475 15 0.064 0.064 0.066 0.067 0.070 0.066 0.070 0.467 16 0.061 0.059 0.062 0.062 0.067 0.064 0.069 0.434 17 0.065 0.061 0.060 0.064 0.069 0.066 0.073 0.458 18 0.067 0.063 0.065 0.068 0.073 0.069 0.076 0.499 19 0.069 0.067 0.068 0.072 0.077 0.071 0.078 0.502 20 0.071 0.069 0.070 0.074 0.080 0.074 0.077 0.515 21 0.070 0.065 0.072 0.076 0.079 0.073 0.079 0.514 ∑ 1.439 1.431 1.409 1.497 1.598 1.513 1.606 10.553 Table 7. Outlying area 8-hour ozone concentration samples (ppm).

22 effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research Using the same equation, the mean value for each air-sampling location can be found by summing the value of the ozone concentration in the column representing that location and dividing by the 21 observations at that location. For example, considering Sample Station 1, the mean value of the ozone concentration is 1.709/21 = 0.081 ppm. Similarly, the mean value of the ozone concentrations for any specific day can be found by summing the ozone concentration values in the row representing that day and dividing by the number of stations. For example, for Day 1, the mean value of the ozone concentration in the central city is 0.590/7=0.084. In the outlying areas of the city, it is 0.513/7=0.073, and for the entire city it is 1.103/14=0.079. The highest and lowest values of the ozone concentration can be obtained by searching the two tables. The highest ozone concentration (0.091 ppm) is logged as having occurred at Station 5 on Day 11. The lowest ozone concentration (0.059 ppm) occurred at Station 9 on Day 16. The variation by sample location can be illustrated in the form of a frequency diagram. A graph can be used to show the variation in the average ozone concentration for the seven sample stations in the central city (Figure 7). Notice that all of these calculations (and more) can be done very easily if all the data are put in a spreadsheet and various statistical functions used. Graphs and other displays also can be made within the spreadsheet. 5. Interpreting the Results: In this example, the data are not tested to determine whether they fit a known distribution or whether one average value is significantly higher or lower than another. It can only be reported that, as recorded in July, the mean ozone concentration in the central city was greater than the concentration in the outlying areas of the city. (For testing to see whether the data fit a known distribution or comparing mean values, see Example 4 on fitting distribu- tions and goodness of fit. For comparing mean values, see examples 5 through 7.) It is known that ozone concentration varies by day and by location of the air-sampling equipment. If there is some threshold value of importance, such as the ozone concentration level considered acceptable by the EPA, these data could be used to determine the number of days that this level was exceeded, or the number of stations that recorded an ozone concentration above this threshold. This is done by comparing each day or each station with the threshold 0.081 0.083 0.081 0.083 0.084 0.085 0.085 0.070 0.072 0.074 0.076 0.078 0.080 0.082 0.084 0.086 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Station A ve ra ge o zo ne c on ce nt ra tio n Figure 7. Average ozone concentration for seven central city sampling stations (ppm).

examples of effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 23 value. It must be noted that, as presented, this example is not a statistical comparison per se (i.e., there has been no significance testing or formal statistical comparison). 6. Conclusion and Discussion: This example illustrates how to determine and present quanti- tative information about a data set containing values of a varying parameter. If a similar set of data were captured each month, the variation in ozone concentration could be analyzed to describe the variation over the year. Similarly, if data were captured at these same locations in July of every year, the trend in ozone concentration over time could be determined. 7. Applications in Other Areas in Transportation: These descriptive statistics techniques can be used to present data in other areas of transportation research, such as: • Traffic Operations/Safety and Transportation Planning – to analyze the average speed of vehicles on streets with a speed limit of 45 miles per hour (mph) in residential, commercial, and industrial areas by sampling a number of streets in each of these area types. – to examine the average emergency vehicle response time to various areas of the city or county, by analyzing dispatch and arrival times for emergency calls to each area of interest. • Pavement Engineering—to analyze the average number of potholes per mile on pavement as a function of the age of pavement, by sampling a number of streets where the pavement age falls in discrete categories (0 to 5 years, 5 to 10 years, 10 to 15 years, and greater than 15 years). • Traffic Safety—to evaluate the average number of crashes per month at intersections with two-way STOP control versus four-way STOP control by sampling a number of intersections in each category over time. Example 4: Traffic Operations; Goodness of Fit Area: Traffic operations Method of Analysis: Goodness of fit (chi-square test; determining if observed distributions of data fit hypothesized standard distributions) 1. Research Question/Problem Statement: A research team is developing a model to estimate travel times of various types of personal travel (modes) on a path shared by bicyclists, in-line skaters, and others. One version of the model relies on the assertion that the distribution of speeds for each mode conforms to the normal distribution. (For a helpful definition of this and other statistical terms, see the glossary in NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Appendix A.) Based on a literature review, the researchers are sure that bicycle speeds are normally distributed. However, the shapes of the speed distributions for other users are unknown. Thus, the objective is to determine if skater speeds are normally distributed in this instance. Question/Issue Do collected data fit a specific type of probability distribution? In this example, do the speeds of in-line skaters on a shared-use path follow a normal distribution (are they normally distributed)? 2. Identification and Description of Variables: The only variable collected is the speed of in-line skaters passing through short sections of the shared-use path. 3. Data Collection: The team collects speeds using a video camera placed where most path users would not notice it. The speed of each free-flowing skater (i.e., each skater who is not closely following another path user) is calculated from the times that the skater passes two benchmarks on the path visible in the camera frame. Several days of data collection allow a large sample of 219 skaters to be measured. (An implicit assumption is made that there is no

24 effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research variation in the data by day.) The data have a familiar bell shape; that is, when graphed, they look like they are normally distributed (Figure 8). Each bar in the figure shows the number of observations per 1.00-mph-wide speed bin. There are 10 observations between 6.00 mph and 6.99 mph. 4. Specification of Analysis Technique and Data Analysis: This analysis involves several pre- liminary steps followed by two major steps. In the preliminaries, the team calculates the mean and standard deviation from the data sample as 10.17 mph and 2.79 mph, respectively, using standard formulas described in NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Chapter 6, Section C under the heading “Frequency Distributions, Variance, Standard Deviation, Histograms, and Boxplots.” Then the team forms bins of observations of sufficient size to conduct the analysis. For this analysis, the team forms bins containing at least four observations each, which means forming a bin for speeds of 5 mph and lower and a bin for speeds of 17 mph or higher. There is some argument regarding the minimum allowable cell size. Some analysts argue that the minimum is five; others argue that the cell size can be smaller. Smaller numbers of observations in a bin may distort the results. When in doubt, the analysis can be done with different assumptions regarding the cell size. The left two columns in Table 8 show the data ready for analysis. The first major step of the analysis is to generate the theoretical normal distribution to compare to the field data. To do this, the team calculates a value of Z, the standard normal variable for each bin i, using the following equation: Z xi = − µ σ where x is the speed in miles per hour (mph) corresponding to the bin, µ is the mean speed, and s is the standard deviation of all of the observations in the speed sample in mph. For example (and with reference to the data in Table 8), for a speed of 5 mph the value of Z will be (5 - 10.17)/2.79 = -1.85 and for a speed of 6 mph, the value of Z will be (6 - 10.17)/2.79 = -1.50. The team then consults a table of standard normal values (i.e., NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Appendix C, Table C-1) to convert these Z values into A values representing the area under the standard normal distribution curve. The A value for a Z of -1.85 is 0.468, while the A value for a Z of -1.50 is 0.432. The difference between these two A values, representing the area under the standard normal probability curve corresponding to the speed of 6 mph, is 0.036 (calculated 0.468 - 0.432 = 0.036). The team multiplies 0.036 by the total sample size (219), to estimate that there should be 7.78 skaters with a speed of 6 mph if the speeds follow the standard normal distribution. The team follows Figure 8. Distribution of observed in-line skater speeds. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 232119 Speed, mph Nu m be r o f o bs er va tio ns

examples of effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 25 a similar procedure for all speeds. Notice that the areas under the curve can also be calculated in a simple Excel spreadsheet using the “NORMDIST” function for a given x value and the average speed of 10.17 and standard deviation of 2.79. The values shown in Table 8 have been estimated using the Excel function. The second major step of the analysis is to use the chi-square test (as described in NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Chapter 6, Section F) to determine if the theoretical normal distribution is significantly different from the actual data distribution. The team computes a chi-square value for each bin i using the formula: χi i i i O E E 2 2 = −( ) where Oi is the number of actual observations in bin i and Ei is the expected number of obser- vations in bin i estimated by using the theoretical distribution. For the bin of 6 mph speeds, O = 10 (from the table), E = 7.78 (calculated), and the ci2 contribution for that cell is 0.637. The sum of the ci2 values for all bins is 19.519. The degrees of freedom (df) used for this application of the chi-square test are the number of bins minus 1 minus the number of variables in the distribution of interest. Given that the normal distribution has two variables (see May, Traffic Flow Fundamentals, 1990, p. 40), in this example the degrees of freedom equal 9 (calculated 12 - 1 - 2 = 9). From a standard table of chi-square values (NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Appendix C, Table C-2), the team finds that the critical value at the 95% confidence level for this case (with df = 9) is 16.9. The calculated value of the statistic is ~19.5, more than the tabular value. The results of all of these observations and calculations are shown in Table 8. 5. Interpreting the Results: The calculated chi-square value of ~19.5 is greater than the criti- cal chi-square value of 16.9. The team concludes, therefore, that the normal distribution is significantly different from the distribution of the speed sample at the 95% level (i.e., that the in-line skater speed data do not appear to be normally distributed). Larger variations between the observed and expected distributions lead to higher values of the statistic and would be interpreted as it being less likely that the data are distributed according to the Speed (mph) Number of Observations Number Predicted by Normal Distribution Chi-Square Value Under 5.99 6 6.98 0.137 6.00 to 6.99 10 7.78 0.637 7.00 to 7.99 18 13.21 1.734 8.00 to 8.99 24 19.78 0.902 9.00 to 9.99 37 26.07 4.585 10.00 to 10.99 38 30.26 1.980 11.00 to 11.99 24 30.93 1.554 12.00 to 12.99 21 27.85 1.685 13.00 to 13.99 15 22.08 2.271 14.00 to 14.99 13 15.42 0.379 15.00 to 15.99 4 9.48 3.169 16.00 to 16.99 4 5.13 0.251 17.00 and over 5 4.03 0.234 Total 219 219 19.519 Table 8. Observations, theoretical predictions, and chi-square values for each bin.

26 effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research hypothesized distribution. Conversely, smaller variations between observed and expected distributions result in lower values of the statistic, which would suggest that it is more likely that the data are normally distributed because the observed values would fit better with the expected values. 6. Conclusion and Discussion: In this case, the results suggest that the normal distribution is not a good fit to free-flow speeds of in-line skaters on shared-use paths. Interestingly, if the 23 mph observation is considered to be an outlier and discarded, the results of the analysis yield a different conclusion (that the data are normally distributed). Some researchers use a simple rule that an outlier exists if the observation is more than three standard deviations from the mean value. (In this example, the 23 mph observation is, indeed, more than three standard deviations from the mean.) If there is concern with discarding the observation as an outlier, it would be easy enough in this example to repeat the data collection exercise. Looking at the data plotted above, it is reasonably apparent that the well-known normal distribution should be a good fit (at least without the value of 23). However, the results from the statistical test could not confirm the suspicion. In other cases, the type of distribution may not be so obvious, the distributions in question may be obscure, or some distribution parameters may need to be calibrated for a good fit. In these cases, the statistical test is much more valuable. The chi-square test also can be used simply to compare two observed distributions to see if they are the same, independent of any underlying probability distribution. For example, if it is desired to know if the distribution of traffic volume by vehicle type (e.g., automobiles, light trucks, and so on) is the same at two different freeway locations, the two distributions can be compared to see if they are similar. The consequences of an error in the procedure outlined here can be severe. This is because the distributions chosen as a result of the procedure often become the heart of predictive models used by many other engineers and planners. A poorly-chosen distribution will often provide erroneous predictions for many years to come. 7. Applications in Other Areas of Transportation Research: Fitting distributions to data samples is important in several areas of transportation research, such as: • Traffic Operations—to analyze shapes of vehicle headway distributions, which are of great interest, especially as a precursor to calibrating and using simulation models. • Traffic Safety—to analyze collision frequency data. Analysts often assume that the Poisson distribution is a good fit for collision frequency data and must use the method described here to validate the claim. • Pavement Engineering—to form models of pavement wear or otherwise compare results obtained using different designs, as it is often required to check the distributions of the parameters used (e.g., roughness). Example 5: Construction; Simple Comparisons to Specified Values Area: Construction Method of Analysis: Simple comparisons to specified values—using Student’s t-test to compare the mean value of a small sample to a standard or other requirement (i.e., to a population with a known mean and unknown standard deviation or variance) 1. Research Question/Problem Statement: A contractor wants to determine if a specified soil compaction can be achieved on a segment of the road under construction by using an on-site roller or if a new roller must be brought in.

examples of effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 27 The cost of obtaining samples for many construction materials and practices is quite high. As a result, decisions often must be made based on a small number of samples. The appropri- ate statistical technique for comparing the mean value of a small sample with a standard or requirement is Student’s t-test. Formally, the working, or null, hypothesis (Ho) and the alternative hypothesis (Ha) can be stated as follows: Ho: The soil compaction achieved using the on-site roller (CA) is less than a specified value (CS); that is, (CA < CS). Ha: The soil compaction achieved using the on-site roller (CA) is greater than or equal to the specified value (CS); that is, (CA ≥ CS). Question/Issue Determine whether a sample mean exceeds a specified value. Alternatively, deter- mine the probability of obtaining a sample mean (x _ ) from a sample of size n, if the universe being sampled has a true mean less than or equal to a population mean with an unknown variance. In this example, is an observed mean of soil compaction samples equal to or greater than a specified value? 2. Identification and Description of Variables: The variable to be used is the soil density results of nuclear densometer tests. These values will be used to determine whether the use of the on-site roller is adequate to meet the contract-specified soil density obtained in the laboratory (Proctor density) of 95%. 3. Data Collection: A 125-foot section of road is constructed and compacted with the on-site roller, and four samples of the soil density are obtained (25 feet, 50 feet, 75 feet, and 100 feet from the beginning of the test section). 4. Specification of Analysis Technique and Data Analysis: For small samples (n < 30) where the population mean is known but the population standard deviation is unknown, it is not appropriate to describe the distribution of the sample mean with a normal distribution. The appropriate distribution is called Student’s distribution (t-distribution or t-statistic). The equation for Student’s t-statistic is: t x x S n = − ′ where x _ is the sample mean, x _ ′ is the population mean (or specified standard), S is the sample standard deviation, and n is the sample size. The four nuclear densometer readings were 98%, 97%, 93% and 99%. Then, showing some simple sample calculations, X X S X i i i n = = + + + = = = = = ∑ 4 98 97 93 99 4 387 4 96 75 1 4 1 . % Σ i X n S −( ) − = = 2 1 20 74 3 2 63 . . %

28 effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research and using the equation for t above, t = − = = 96 75 95 00 2 63 2 1 75 1 32 1 33 . . . . . . The calculated value of the t-statistic (1.33) is most typically compared to the tabularized values of the t-statistic (e.g., NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Appendix C, Table C-4) for a given significance level (typically called t critical or tcrit). For a sample size of n = 4 having 3 (n - 1) degrees of freedom (df), the values for tcrit are: 1.638 for a = 0.10 and 2.353 for a = 0.05 (two common values of a for testing, the latter being most common). Important: The specification of the significance level (a level) for testing should be done before actual testing and interpretation of results are done. In many instances, the appropriate level is defined by the agency doing the testing, a specified testing standard, or simply common practice. Generally speaking, selection of a smaller value for a (e.g., a = 0.05 versus a = 0.10) sets a more stringent standard. In this example, because the calculated value of t (1.33) is less than the critical value (2.353, given a = 0.05), the null hypothesis is accepted. That is, the engineer cannot be confident that the mean value from the densometer tests (96.75%) is greater than the required specifica- tion (95%). If a lower confidence level is chosen (e.g., a = 0.15), the value for tcrit would change to 1.250, which means the null hypothesis would be rejected. A lower confidence level can have serious implications. For example, there is an approximately 15% chance that the standard will not be met. That level of risk may or may not be acceptable to the contractor or the agency. Notice that in many standards the required significance level is stated (typically a = 0.05). It should be emphasized that the confidence level should be chosen before calculations and testing are done. It is not generally permissible to change the confidence level after calculations have been performed. Doing this would be akin to arguing that standards can be relaxed if a test gives an answer that the analyst doesn’t like. The results of small sample tests often are sensitive to the number of samples that can be obtained at a reasonable cost. (The mean value may change considerably as more data are added.) In this example, if it were possible to obtain nine independent samples (as opposed to four) and the mean value and sample standard deviation were the same as with the four samples, the calculation of the t-statistic would be: t = − = 96 75 95 00 2 63 3 1 99 . . . . Comparing the value of t (with a larger sample size) to the appropriate tcrit (for n - 1 = 8 df and a = 0.05) of 1.860 changes the outcome. That is, the calculated value of the t-statistic is now larger than the tabularized value of tcrit, and the null hypothesis is rejected. Thus, it is accepted that the mean of the densometer readings meets or exceeds the standard. It should be noted, however, that the inclusion of additional tests may yield a different mean value and standard deviation, in which case the results could be different. 5. Interpreting the Results: By themselves, the results of the statistical analysis are insufficient to answer the question as to whether a new roller should be brought to the project site. These results only provide information the contractor can use to make this decision. The ultimate decision should be based on these probabilities and knowledge of the cost of each option. What is the cost of bringing in a new roller now? What is the cost of starting the project and then determining the current roller is not adequate and then bringing in a new roller? Will this decision result in a delay in project completion—and does the contract include an incentive for early completion and/or a penalty for missing the completion date? If it is possible to conduct additional independent densometer tests, what is the cost of conducting them?

examples of effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 29 If there is a severe penalty for missing the deadline (or a significant reward for finishing early), the contractor may be willing to incur the cost of bringing in a new roller rather than accepting a 15% probability of being delayed. 6. Conclusion and Discussion: In some cases the decision about which alternative is preferable can be expressed in the form of a probability (or level of confidence) required to make a deci- sion. The decision criterion is then expressed in a hypothesis and the probability of rejecting that hypothesis. In this example, if the hypothesis to be tested is “Using the on-site roller will provide an average soil density of 95% or higher” and the level of confidence is set at 95%, given a sample of four tests the decision will be to bring in a new roller. However, if nine independent tests could be conducted, the results in this example would lead to a decision to use the on-site roller. 7. Applications in Other Areas in Transportation Research: Simple comparisons to specified values can be used in a variety of areas of transportation research. Some examples include: • Traffic Operations—to compare the average annual number of crashes at intersections with roundabouts with the average annual number of crashes at signalized intersections. • Pavement Engineering—to test the comprehensive strength of concrete slabs. • Maintenance—to test the results of a proposed new deicer compound. Example 6: Maintenance; Simple Two-Sample Comparisons Area: Maintenance Method of Analysis: Simple two-sample comparisons (t-test for paired comparisons; com- paring the mean values of two sets of matched data) 1. Research Question/Problem Statement: As a part of a quality control and quality assurance (QC/QA) program for highway maintenance and construction, an agency engineer wants to compare and identify discrepancies in the contractor’s testing procedures or equipment in making measurements on materials being used. Specifically, compacted air voids in asphalt mixtures are being measured. In this instance, the agency’s test results need to be compared, one-to-one, with the contractor’s test results. Samples are drawn or made and then literally split and tested—one by the contractor, one by the agency. Then the pairs of measurements are analyzed. A paired t-test will be used to make the comparison. (For another type of two-sample comparison, see Example 7.) Question/Issue Use collected data to test if two sets of results are similar. Specifically, do two test- ing procedures to determine air voids produce the same results? Stated in formal terms, the null and alternative hypotheses are: Ho: There is no mean difference in air voids between agency and contractor test results: H Xo d: = 0 Ha: There is a mean difference in air voids between agency and contractor test results: H Xa d: ≠ 0 (For definitions and more discussion about the formulation of formal hypotheses for test- ing, see NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Appendix A and Volume 1, Chapter 2, “Hypothesis.”) 2. Identification and Description of Variables: The testing procedure for laboratory-compacted air voids in the asphalt mixture needs to be verified. The split-sample test results for laboratory-

30 effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research compacted air voids are shown in Table 9. Twenty samples are prepared using the same asphalt mixture. Half of the samples are prepared in the agency’s laboratory and the other half in the contractor’s laboratory. Given this arrangement, there are basically two variables of concern: who did the testing and the air void determination. 3. Data Collection: A sufficient quantity of asphalt mix to make 10 lots is produced in an asphalt plant located on a highway project. Each of the 10 lots is collected, split into two samples, and labeled. A sample from each lot, 4 inches in diameter and 2 inches in height, is prepared in the contractor’s laboratory to determine the air voids in the compacted samples. A matched set of samples is prepared in the agency’s laboratory and a similar volumetric procedure is used to determine the agency’s lab-compacted air voids. The lab-compacted air void contents in the asphalt mixture for both the contractor and agency are shown in Table 9. 4. Specification of Analysis Technique and Data Analysis: A paired (two-sided) t-test will be used to determine whether a difference exists between the contractor and agency results. As noted above, in a paired t-test the null hypothesis is that the mean of the differences between each pair of two tests is 0 (there is no difference between the means). The null hypothesis can be expressed as follows: H Xo d: = 0 The alternate hypothesis, that the two means are not equal, can be expressed as follows: H Xa d: ≠ 0 The t-statistic for the paired measurements (i.e., the difference between the split-sample test results) is calculated using the following equation: t X s n d d = − 0 Using the actual data, the value of the t-statistic is calculated as follows: t = − = 0 88 0 0 7 10 4 . . Sample Air Voids (%) DifferenceContractor Agency 1 4.37 4.15 0.21 2 3.76 5.39 -1.63 3 4.10 4.47 -0.37 4 4.39 4.52 -0.13 5 4.06 5.36 -1.29 6 4.14 5.01 -0.87 7 3.92 5.23 -1.30 8 3.38 4.97 -1.60 9 4.12 4.37 -0.25 10 3.68 5.29 -1.61 X 3.99 4.88 dX = -0.88 S 0.31 0.46 ds = 0.70 Table 9. Laboratory-compacted air voids in split samples.

examples of effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 31 For n - 1 (10 - 1 = 9) degrees of freedom and a = 0.05, the tcrit value can be looked up using a t-table (e.g., NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Appendix C, Table C-4): t0 025 9 2 262. , .= For a more detailed description of the t-statistic, see the glossary in NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Appendix A. 5. Interpreting the Results: Given that t = 4 > t0.025, 9 = 2.685, the engineer would reject the null hypothesis and conclude that the results of the paired tests are different. This means that the contractor and agency test results from paired measurements indicate that the test method, technicians, and/or test equipment are not providing similar results. Notice that the engineer cannot conclude anything about the material or production variation or what has caused the differences to occur. 6. Conclusion and Discussion: The results of the test indicate that a statistically significant difference exists between the test results from the two groups. When making such comparisons, it is important that random sampling be used when obtaining the samples. Also, because sources of variability influence the population parameters, the two sets of test results must have been sampled over the same time period, and the same sampling and testing procedures must have been used. It is best if one sample is drawn and then literally split in two, then another sample drawn, and so on. The identification of a difference is just that: notice that a difference exists. The reason for the difference must still be determined. A common misinterpretation is that the result of the t-test provides the probability of the null hypothesis being true. Another way to look at the t-test result in this example is to conclude that some alternative hypothesis provides a better description of the data. The result does not, however, indicate that the alternative hypothesis is true. To ensure practical significance, it is necessary to assess the magnitude of the difference being tested. This can be done by computing confidence intervals, which are used to quantify the range of effect size and are often more useful than simple hypothesis testing. Failure to reject a hypothesis also provides important information. Possible explanations include: occurrence of a type-II error (erroneous acceptance of the null hypothesis); small sample size; difference too small to detect; expected difference did not occur in data; there is no difference/effect. Proper experiment design and data collection can minimize the impact of some of these issues. (For a more comprehensive discussion of this topic, see NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Chapter 1.) 7. Applications in Other Areas of Transportation Research: The application of the t-test to compare two mean values in other areas of transportation research may include: • Traffic Operations—to evaluate average delay in bus arrivals at various bus stops. • Traffic Operations/Safety—to determine the effect of two enforcement methods on reduction in a particular traffic violation. • Pavement Engineering—to investigate average performance of two pavement sections. • Environment—to compare average vehicular emissions at two locations in a city. Example 7: Materials; Simple Two-Sample Comparisons Area: Materials Method of Analysis: Simple two-sample comparisons (using the t-test to compare the mean values of two samples and the F-test for comparing variances) 1. Research Question/Problem Statement: As a part of dispute resolution during quality control and quality assurance, a highway agency engineer wants to validate a contractor’s test results concerning asphalt content. In this example, the engineer wants to compare the results

32 effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research of two sets of tests: one from the contractor and one from the agency. Formally, the (null) hypothesis to be tested, Ho, is that the contractor’s tests and the agency’s tests are from the same population. In other words, the null hypothesis is that the means of the two data sets will be equal, as will the standard deviations. Notice that in the latter instance the variances are actually being compared. Test results were also compared in Example 6. In that example, the comparison was based on split samples. The same test specimens were tested by two different analysts using different equipment to see if the same results could be obtained by both. The major difference between Example 6 and Example 7 is that, in this example, the two samples are randomly selected from the same pavement section. Question/Issue Use collected data to test if two measured mean values are the same. In this instance, are two mean values of asphalt content the same? Stated in formal terms, the null and alternative hypotheses can be expressed as follows: Ho: There is no difference in asphalt content between agency and contractor test results: H m mo c a: − =( )0 Ha: There is a difference in asphalt content between agency and contractor test results: H m ma c a: − ≠( )0 2. Identification and Description of Variables: The contractor runs 12 asphalt content tests and the agency engineer runs 6 asphalt content tests over the same period of time, using the same random sampling and testing procedures. The question is whether it is likely that the tests have come from the same population based on their variability. 3. Data Collection: If the agency’s objective is simply to identify discrepancies in the testing procedures or equipment, then verification testing should be done on split samples (as in Example 6). Using split samples, the difference in the measured variable can more easily be attributed to testing procedures. A paired t-test should be used. (For more information, see NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Chapter 4, Section A, “Analysis of Variance Methodology.”) A split sample occurs when a physical sample (of whatever is being tested) is drawn and then literally split into two testable samples. On the other hand, if the agency’s objective is to identify discrepancies in the overall material, process, sampling, and testing processes, then validation testing should be done on independent samples. Notice the use of these terms. It is important to distinguish between testing to verify only the testing process (verification) versus testing to compare the overall production, sampling, and testing processes (validation). If independent samples are used, the agency test results still can be compared with contractor test results (using a simple t-test for comparing two means). If the test results are consistent, then the agency and contractor tests can be combined for contract compliance determination. 4. Specification of Analysis Technique and Data Analysis: When comparing the two data sets, it is important to compare both the means and the variances because the assumption when using the t-test requires equal variances for each of the two groups. A different test is used in each instance. The F-test provides a method for comparing the variances (the standard devia- tion squared) of two sets of data. Differences in means are assessed by the t-test. Generally, construction processes and material properties are assumed to follow a normal distribution.

examples of effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 33 In this example, a normal distribution is assumed. (The assumption of normality also can be tested, as in Example 4.) The ratios of variances follow an F-distribution, while the means of relatively small samples follow a t-distribution. Using these distributions, hypothesis tests can be conducted using the same concepts that have been discussed in prior examples. (For more information about the F-test and the t-distribution, see NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Chapter 4, Section A, “Compute the F-ratio Test Statistic.” For more information about the t-distribution, see NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Chapter 4, Section A.) For samples from the same normal population, the statistic F (the ratio of the two-sample variances) has a sampling distribution called the F-distribution. For validation and verification testing, the F-test is based on the ratio of the sample variance of the contractor’s test results (sc 2) and the sample variance of the agency’s test results (sa 2). Similarly, the t-test can be used to test whether the sample mean of the contractor’s tests, X _ c, and the agency’s tests, X _ a, came from populations with the same mean. Consider the asphalt content test results from the contractor samples and agency samples (Table 10). In this instance, the F-test is used to determine whether the variance observed for the contractor’s tests differs from the variance observed for the agency’s tests. Using the F-test Step 1. Compute the variance (s2), for each set of tests: sc 2 = 0.064 and sa 2 = 0.092. As an example, sc 2 can be calculated as: s x X n c i c i2 2 2 2 1 6 4 6 1 11 6 2 6 1 11 = −( ) − = −( ) + −( )∑ . . . . + + −( ) + −( ) =. . . . . . . 6 6 1 11 5 7 6 1 11 0 0645 2 2 Step 2. Compute F s s calc a c = = = 2 2 0 092 0 064 1 43 . . . . Contractor Samples Agency Samples 1 6.4 1 5.4 2 6.2 2 5.8 3 6.0 3 6.2 4 6.6 4 5.4 5 6.1 5 5.6 6 6.0 6 5.8 7 6.3 8 6.1 9 5.9 10 5.8 11 6.0 12 5.7 Descriptive Statistics = 6.1cX Descriptive Statistics = 5.7aX = 0.0642cs = 0.0922as = 0.25cs = 0.30as = 12cn = 6an Table 10. Asphalt content test results from independent samples.

34 effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research Step 3. Determine Fcrit from the F-distribution table, making sure to use the correct degrees of freedom (df) for the numerator (the number of observations minus 1, or na - 1 = 6 - 1 = 5) and the denominator (nc - 1 = 12 - 1 = 11). For a = 0.01, Fcrit = 5.32. The critical F-value can be found from tables (see NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Appendix C, Table C-5). Read the F-value for 1 - a = 0.99, numerator and denominator degrees of freedom 5 and 11, respectively. Interpolation can be used if exact degrees of freedom are not available in the table. Alternatively, a statistical function in Microsoft Excel™ can be used to determine the F-value. Step 4. Compare the two values to determine if Fcalc < Fcrit. If Fcalc < Fcrit is true, then the variances are equal; if not, they are unequal. In this example, Fcalc (1.43) is, in fact, less than Fcrit (5.32) and, thus, there is no evidence of unequal variances. Given this result, the t-test for the case of equal variances is used to determine whether to declare that the mean of the contractor’s tests differs from the mean of the agency’s tests. Using the t-test Step 1. Compute the sample means (X _ ) for each set of tests: X _ c = 6.1 and X _ a = 5.7. Step 2. Compute the pooled variance sp 2 from the individual sample variances: s s n s n n n p c c a a c a 2 2 21 1 2 0 064 12 1 = −( )+ −( ) + − = −( )+. 0 092 6 1 12 6 2 0 0731 . . −( ) + − = Step 3. Compute the t-statistic using the following equation for equal variance: t X X s n s n c a p c p a = − + = − + = 2 2 6 1 5 7 0 0731 12 0 0731 6 . . . . 2 9. t0 005 16 2 921. , .= (For more information, see NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Appendix C, Table C-4 for A v= − =1 2 16 α and .) 5. Interpreting the Results: Given that F < Fcrit (i.e., 1.43 < 5.32), there is no reason to believe that the two sets of data have different variances. That is, they could have come from the same population. Therefore, the t-test can be used to compare the means using equal variance. Because t < tcrit (i.e., 2.9 < 2.921), the engineer does not reject the null hypothesis and, thus, assumes that the sample means are equal. The final conclusion is that it is likely that the contractor and agency test results represent the same process. In other words, with a 99% confidence level, it can be said that the agency’s test results are not different from the contrac- tor’s and therefore validate the contractor tests. 6. Conclusion and Discussion: The simple t-test can be used to validate the contractor’s test results by conducting independent sampling from the same pavement at the same time. Before conducting a formal t-test to compare the sample means, the assumption of equal variances needs to be evaluated. This can be accomplished by comparing sample variances using the F-test. The interpretation of results will be misleading if the equal variance assumption is not validated. If the variances of two populations being compared for their means are different, the mean comparison will reflect the difference between two separate populations. Finally, based on the comparison of means, one can conclude that the construction materials have consistent properties as validated by two independent sources (contractor and agency). This sort of comparison is developed further in Example 8, which illustrates tests for the equality of more than two mean values.

examples of effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 35 7. Applications in Other Areas of Transportation Research: The simple t-test can be used to compare means of two independent samples. Applications for this method in other areas of transportation research may include: • Traffic Operations – to compare average speeds at two locations along a route. – to evaluate average delay times at two intersections in an urban area. • Pavement Engineering—to investigate the difference in average performance of two pavement sections. • Maintenance—to determine the effects of two maintenance treatments on average life extension of two pavement sections. Example 8: Laboratory Testing/Instrumentation; Simple Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) Area: Laboratory testing and/or instrumentation Method of Analysis: Simple analysis of variance (ANOVA) comparing the mean values of more than two samples and using the F-test 1. Research Question/Problem Statement: An engineer wants to test and compare the com- pressive strength of five different concrete mix designs that vary in coarse aggregate type, gradation, and water/cement ratio. An experiment is conducted in a laboratory where five different concrete mixes are produced based on given specifications, and tested for com- pressive strength using the ASTM International standard procedures. In this example, the comparison involves inference on parameters from more than two populations. The purpose of the analysis, in other words, is to test whether all mix designs are similar to each other in mean compressive strength or whether some differences actually exist. ANOVA is the statistical procedure used to test the basic hypothesis illustrated in this example. Question/Issue Compare the means of more than two samples. In this instance, compare the compres- sive strengths of five concrete mix designs with different combinations of aggregates, gradation, and water/cement ratio. More formally, test the following hypotheses: Ho: There is no difference in mean compressive strength for the various (five) concrete mix types. Ha: At least one of the concrete mix types has a different compressive strength. 2. Identification and Description of Variables: In this experiment, the factor of interest (independent variable) is the concrete mix design, which has five levels based on differ- ent coarse aggregate types, gradation, and water/cement ratios (denoted by t and labeled A through E in Table 11). Compressive strength is a continuous response (dependent) variable, measured in pounds per square inch (psi) for each specimen. Because only one factor is of interest in this experiment, the statistical method illustrated is often called a one-way ANOVA or simple ANOVA. 3. Data Collection: For each of the five mix designs, three replicates each of cylinders 4 inches in diameter and 8 inches in height are made and cured for 28 days. After 28 days, all 15 specimens are tested for compressive strength using the standard ASTM International test. The compres- sive strength data and summary statistics are provided for each mix design in Table 11. In this example, resource constraints have limited the number of replicates for each mix design to

36 effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research three. (For a discussion on sample size determination based on statistical power requirements, see NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Chapter 1, “Sample Size Determination.”) 4. Specification of Analysis Technique and Data Analysis: To perform a one-way ANOVA, pre- liminary calculations are carried out to compute the overall mean (y _ P), the sample means (y _ i.), and the sample variances (si 2) given the total sample size (nT = 15) as shown in Table 11. The basic strategy for ANOVA is to compare the variance between levels or groups—specifically, the variation between sample means—to the variance within levels. This comparison is used to determine if the levels explain a significant portion of the variance. (Details for perform- ing a one-way ANOVA are given in NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Chapter 4, Section A, “Analysis of Variance Methodology.”) ANOVA is based on partitioning of the total sum of squares (TSS, a measure of overall variability) into within-level and between-levels components. The TSS is defined as the sum of the squares of the differences of each observation (yij) from the overall mean (y _ P). The TSS, between-levels sum of squares (SSB), and within-level sum of squares (SSE) are computed as follows. TSS y y SSB y y ij i j i = −( ) = = −( ) ∑ .. , . .. . 2 2 4839620 90 = = −( ) = ∑ 4331513 60 508107 30 2 . . , . , i j ij i i j SSE y y∑ The next step is to compute the between-levels mean square (MSB) and within-levels mean square (MSE) based on respective degrees of freedom (df). The total degrees of freedom (dfT), between-levels degrees of freedom (dfB), and within-levels degrees of freedom (dfE) for one- way ANOVA are computed as follows: df n df t df n t T T B E T = − = − = = − = − = = − = − = 1 15 1 14 1 5 1 4 15 5 10 where nT = the total sample size and t = the total number of levels or groups. The next step of the ANOVA procedure is to compute the F-statistic. The F-statistic is the ratio of two variances: the variance due to interaction between the levels, and the variance due to differences within the levels. Under the null hypothesis, the between-levels mean square (MSB) and within-levels mean square (MSE) provide two independent estimates of the variance. If the means for different levels of mix design are truly different from each other, the MSB will tend Replicate Mix Design A B C D E 1 y11 = 5416 y21 = 5292 y31 = 4097 y41 = 5056 y51 = 4165 2 y12 = 5125 y22 = 4779 y32 = 3695 y42 = 5216 y52 = 3849 3 y13 = 4847 y23 = 4824 y33 = 4109 y43 = 5235 y53 = 4089 Mean y– 1. = 5129 y– 2. = 4965 y– 3. = 3967 y– 4. = 5169 y– 5. = 4034 Standard deviation s1 = 284.52 s2 = 284.08 s3 = 235.64 s4 = 98.32 s5 = 164.94 Overall mean y–.. = 4653 Table 11. Concrete compressive strength (psi) after 28 days.

examples of effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 37 to be larger than the MSE, such that it will be more likely to reject the null hypothesis. For this example, the calculations for MSB, MSE, and F are as follows: MSB SSB df MSE SSE df F M B E = = = = = 1082878 40 50810 70 . . SB MSE = 21 31. If there are no effects due to level, the F-statistic will tend to be smaller. If there are effects due to level, the F-statistic will tend to be larger, as is the case in this example. ANOVA computations usually are summarized in the form of a table. Table 12 summarizes the computations for this example. The final step is to determine Fcrit from the F-distribution table (e.g., NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Appendix C, Table C-5) with t - 1 (5 - 1 = 4) degrees of freedom for the numerator and nT - t (15 - 5 = 10) degrees of freedom for the denominator. For a significance level of a = 0.01, Fcrit is found (in Table C-5) to be 5.99. Given that F > Fcrit (21.31 > 5.99), the null hypothesis that all mix designs have equal compressive strength is rejected, supporting the conclusion that at least two mix designs are different from each other in their mean effect. Table 12 also shows the p-value calculated using a computer program. The p-value is the probability that a sample would result in the given statistic value if the null hypothesis were true. The p-value of 0.0000698408 is well below the chosen significance level of 0.01. 5. Interpreting the Results: The ANOVA results in rejection of the null hypothesis at a = 0.01. That is, the mean values are judged to be statistically different. However, the ANOVA result does not indicate where the difference lies. For example, does the compressive strength of mix design A differ from that of mix design C or D? To carry out such multiple mean comparisons, the analyst must control the experiment-wise error rate (EER) by employing more conservative methods such as Tukey’s test, Bonferroni’s test, or Scheffe’s test, as appropriate. (Details for ANOVA are given in NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Chapter 4, Section A, “Analysis of Variance Methodology.”) The coefficient of determination (R2) provides a rough indication of how well the statistical model fits the data. For this example, R2 is calculated as follows: R SSB TSS 2 4331513 60 4839620 90 0 90= = = . . . For this example, R2 indicates that the one-way ANOVA classification model accounts for 90% of the total variation in the data. In the controlled laboratory experiment demonstrated in this example, R2 = 0.90 indicates a fairly acceptable fit of the statistical model to the data. 6. Conclusion and Discussion: This example illustrates a simple one-way ANOVA where infer- ence regarding parameters (mean values) from more than two populations or treatments was Source Sum of Squares (SS) Degrees of Freedom (df) Mean Square (MS) F Probability > F (Significance) Between 4331513.60 4 1082878.40 21.31 0.0000698408 Within 508107.30 10 50810.70 Total 4839620.90 14 Table 12. ANOVA results.

38 effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research desired. The focus of computations was the construction of the ANOVA table. Before pro- ceeding with ANOVA, however, an analyst must verify that the assumptions of common vari- ance and data normality are satisfied within each group/level. The results do not establish the cause of difference in compressive strength between mix designs in any way. The experimental setup and analytical procedure shown in this example may be used to test other properties of mix designs such as flexure strength. If another factor (for example, water/cement ratio with levels low or high) is added to the analysis, the classification will become a two-way ANOVA. (In this report, two-way ANOVA is demonstrated in Example 11.) Notice that the equations shown in Example 8 may only be used for one-way ANOVA for balanced designs, meaning that in this experiment there are equal numbers of replicates for each level within a factor. (For a discussion of computations on unbalanced designs and multifactor designs, see NCHRP Project 20-45.) 7. Applications in Other Areas of Transportation Research: Examples of applications of one-way ANOVA in other areas of transportation research include: • Traffic Operations—to determine the effect of various traffic calming devices on average speeds in residential areas. • Traffic Operations/Safety—to study the effect of weather conditions on accidents in a given time period. • Work Zones—to compare the effect of different placements of work zone signs on reduction in highway speeds at some downstream point. • Materials—to investigate the effect of recycled aggregates on compressive and flexural strength of concrete. Example 9: Materials; Simple Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) Area: Materials Method of Analysis: Simple analysis of variance (ANOVA) comparing more than two mean values and using the F-test for equality of means 1. Research Question/Problem Statement: To illustrate how increasingly detailed analysis may be appropriate, Example 9 is an extension of the two-sample comparison presented in Exam- ple 7. As a part of dispute resolution during quality control and quality assurance, let’s say the highway agency engineer from Example 7 decides to reconfirm the contractor’s test results for asphalt content. The agency hires an independent consultant to verify both the contractor- and agency-measured asphalt contents. It now becomes necessary to compare more than two mean values. A simple one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) can be used to analyze the asphalt contents measured by three different parties. Question/Issue Extend a comparison of two mean values to compare three (or more) mean values. Specifically, use data collected by several (>2) different parties to see if the results (mean values) are the same. Formally, test the following null (Ho) and alternative (Ha) hypotheses, which can be stated as follows: Ho: There is no difference in asphalt content among three different parties: H m m mo contractor agency: = =( )consultant Ha: At least one of the parties has a different measured asphalt content.

examples of effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 39 2. Identification and Description of Variables: The independent consultant runs 12 additional asphalt content tests by taking independent samples from the same pavement section as the agency and contractor. The question is whether it is likely that the tests came from the same population, based on their variability. 3. Data Collection: The descriptive statistics (mean, standard deviation, and sample size) for the asphalt content data collected by the three parties are shown in Table 13. Notice that 12 measurements each have been taken by the contractor and the independent consultant, while the agency has only taken six measurements. The data for the contractor and the agency are the same as presented in Example 7. For brevity, the consultant’s raw observations are not repeated here. The mean value and standard deviation for the consultant’s data are calculated using the same formulas and equations that were used in Example 7. 4. Specification of Analysis Technique and Data Analysis: The agency engineer can use one-way ANOVA to resolve this question. (Details for one-way ANOVA are available in NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Chapter 4, Section A, “Analysis of Variance Methodology.”) The objective of the ANOVA is to determine whether the variance observed in the depen- dent variable (in this case, asphalt content) is due to the differences among the samples (different from one party to another) or due to the differences within the samples. ANOVA is basically an extension of two-sample comparisons to cases when three or more samples are being compared. More formally, the technician is testing to see whether the between- sample variability is large relative to the within-sample variability, as stated in the formal hypothesis. This type of comparison also may be referred to as between-groups versus within-groups variance. Rejection of the null hypothesis (that the mean values are the same) gives the engineer some information concerning differences among the population means; however, it does not indicate which means actually differ from each other. Rejection of the null hypothesis tells the engineer that differences exist, but it does not specify that X _ 1 differs from X _ 2 or from X _ 3. To control the experiment-wise error rate (EER) for multiple mean comparisons, a con- servative test—Tukey’s procedure for unplanned comparisons—can be used for unplanned comparisons. (Information about Tukey’s procedure can be found in almost any good statistics textbook, such as those by Freund and Wilson [2003] and Kutner et al. [2005].) The F-statistic calculated for determining the effect of who (agency, contractor, or consultant) measured Party Type Asphalt Content Percent Contractor 1 1 1 X s n = 6.1 = 0.254 = 12 Agency 2 2 2 X s n = 5.7 = 0.303 = 6 Consultant 3 3 3 X s n = 5.12 = 0.186 = 12 Table 13. Asphalt content data summary.

40 effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research the asphalt content is given in Table 14. (See Example 8 for a more detailed discussion of the calculations necessary to create Table 14.) Although the ANOVA results reveal whether there are overall differences, it is always good practice to visually examine the data. For example, Figure 9 shows the mean and associated 95% confidence intervals (CI) of the mean asphalt content measured by each of the three parties involved in the testing. 5. Interpreting the Results: A simple one-way ANOVA is conducted to determine whether there is a difference in mean asphalt content as measured by the three different parties. The analysis shows that the F-statistic is significant (p-value < 0.05), meaning that at least two of the means are significantly different from each other. The engineer can use Tukey’s procedure for com- parisons of multiple means, or he or she can observe the plotted 95% confidence intervals to figure out which means are actually (and significantly) different from each other (see Figure 9). Because the confidence intervals overlap, the results show that the asphalt content measured by the contractor and the agency are somewhat different. (These same conclusions were obtained in Example 7.) However, the mean asphalt content obtained by the consultant is significantly different from (and lower than) that obtained by both of the other parties. This is evident because the confidence interval for the consultant doesn’t overlap with the confidence interval of either of the other two parties. Source Sum of Squares (SS) Degrees of Freedom (df) Mean Square (MS) F Significance Between groups 5.6 2 2.8 49.1 0.000 Within groups 1.5 27 0.06 Total 7.2 29 Table 14. ANOVA results. Figure 9. Mean and confidence intervals for asphalt content data.

examples of effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 41 6. Conclusion and Discussion: This example uses a simple one-way ANOVA to compare the mean values of three sets of results using data drawn from the same test section. The error bar plots for data from the three different parties visually illustrate the statistical differences in the multiple means. However, the F-test for multiple means should be used to formally test the hypothesis of the equality of means. The interpretation of results will be misleading if the variances of populations being compared for their mean difference are not equal. Based on the comparison of the three means, it can be concluded that the construction material in this example may not have consistent properties, as indicated by the results from the independent consultant. 7. Applications in Other Areas of Transportation Research: Simple one-way ANOVA is often used when more than two means must be compared. Examples of applications in other areas of transportation research include: • Traffic Safety/Operations—to evaluate the effect of intersection type on the average number of accidents per month. Three or more types of intersections (e.g., signalized, non-signalized, and rotary) could be selected for study in an urban area having similar traffic volumes and vehicle mix. • Pavement Engineering – to investigate the effect of hot-mix asphalt (HMA) layer thickness on fatigue cracking after 20 years of service life. Three HMA layer thicknesses (5 inches, 6 inches, and 7 inches) are to be involved in this study, and other factors (i.e., traffic, climate, and subbase/base thicknesses and subgrade types) need to be similar. – to determine the effect of climatic conditions on rutting performance of flexible pavements. Three or more climatic conditions (e.g., wet-freeze, wet-no-freeze, dry-freeze, and dry-no-freeze) need to be considered while other factors (i.e., traffic, HMA, and subbase/ base thicknesses and subgrade types) need to be similar. Example 10: Pavements; Simple Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) Area: Pavements Method of Analysis: Simple analysis of variance (ANOVA) comparing the mean values of more than two samples and using the F-test 1. Research Question/Problem Statement: The aggregate coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) in Portland cement concrete (PCC) is a critical factor affecting thermal behavior of PCC slabs in concrete pavements. In addition, the interaction between slab curling (caused by the thermal gradient) and axle loads is assumed to be a critical factor for concrete pavement performance in terms of cracking. To verify the effect of aggregate CTE on slab cracking, a pavement engineer wants to conduct a simple observational study by collecting field pave- ment performance data on three different types of pavement. For this example, three types of aggregate (limestone, dolomite, and gravel) are being used in concrete pavement construction and yield the following CTEs: • 4 in./in. per °F • 5 in./in. per °F • 6.5 in./in. per °F It is necessary to compare more than two mean values. A simple one-way ANOVA is used to analyze the observed slab cracking performance by the three different concrete mixes with different aggregate types based on geology (limestone, dolomite, and gravel). All other factors that might cause variation in cracking are assumed to be held constant.

42 effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 2. Identification and Description of Variables: The engineer identifies 1-mile sections of uni- form pavement within the state highway network with similar attributes (aggregate type, slab thickness, joint spacing, traffic, and climate). Field performance, in terms of the observed percentage of slab cracked (“% slab cracked,” i.e., how cracked is each slab) for each pavement section after about 20 years of service, is considered in the analysis. The available pavement data are grouped (stratified) based on the aggregate type (CTE value). The % slab cracked after 20 years is the dependent variable, while CTE of aggregates is the independent variable. The question is whether pavement sections having different types of aggregate (CTE values) exhibit similar performance based on their variability. 3. Data Collection: From the data stratified by CTE, the engineer randomly selects nine pave- ment sections within each CTE category (i.e., 4, 5, and 6.5 in./in. per °F). The sample size is based on the statistical power (1-b) requirements. (For a discussion on sample size determina- tion based on statistical power requirements, see NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Chapter 1, “Sample Size Determination.”) The descriptive statistics for the data, organized by three CTE categories, are shown in Table 15. The engineer considers pavement performance data for 9 pavement sections in each CTE category. 4. Specification of Analysis Technique and Data Analysis: Because the engineer is concerned with the comparison of more than two mean values, the easiest way to make the statistical comparison is to perform a one-way ANOVA (see NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Chapter 4). The comparison will help to determine whether the between-section variability is large relative to the within-section variability. More formally, the following hypotheses are tested: HO: All mean values are equal (i.e., m1 = m2 = m3). HA: At least one of the means is different from the rest. Although rejection of the null hypothesis gives the engineer some information concerning difference among the population means, it doesn’t tell the engineer anything about how the means differ from each other. For example, does m1 differ from m2 or m3? To control the experiment-wise error rate (EER) for multiple mean comparisons, a conservative test— Tukey’s procedure for unplanned comparisons—can be used. (Information about Tukey’s procedure can be found in almost any good statistics textbook, such as those by Freund and Wilson [2003] and Kutner et al. [2005].)The F-statistic calculated for determining the effect of CTE on % slab cracked after 20 years is shown in Table 16. Question/Issue Compare the means of more than two samples. Specifically, is the cracking perfor- mance of concrete pavements designed using more than two different types of aggregates the same? Stated a bit differently, is the performance of three different types of concrete pavement statistically different (are the mean performance measures different)? CTE (in./in. per oF) % Slab Cracked After 20 Years 4 1 1 137, 4.8, 9X s n= = = 5 2 2 253.7, 6.1, 9X s n= = = 6.5 3 3 372.5, 6.3, 9X s n= = = Table 15. Pavement performance data.

examples of effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 43 The data in Table 16 have been produced by considering the original data and following the procedures presented in earlier examples. The emphasis in this example is on understanding what the table of results provides the researcher. Also in this example, the test for homogeneity of variances (Levene test) shows no significant difference among the standard deviations of % slab cracked for different CTE values. Figure 10 presents the mean and associated 95% confi- dence intervals of the average % slab cracked (also called the mean and error bars) measured for the three CTE categories considered. 5. Interpreting the Results: A simple one-way ANOVA is conducted to determine if there is a difference among the mean values for % slab cracked for different CTE values. The analysis shows that the F-statistic is significant (p-value < 0.05), meaning that at least two of the means are statistically significantly different from each other. To gain more insight, the engineer can use Tukey’s procedure to specifically compare the mean values, or the engineer may simply observe the plotted 95% confidence intervals to ascertain which means are significantly different from each other (see Figure 10). The plotted results show that the mean % slab cracked varies significantly for different CTE values—there is no overlap between the different mean/error bars. Figure 10 also shows that the mean % slab cracked is significantly higher for pavement sections having a higher CTE value. (For more information about Tukey’s procedure, see NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Chapter 4.) 6. Conclusion and Discussion: In this example, simple one-way ANOVA is used to assess the effect of CTE on cracking performance of rigid pavements. The F-test for multiple means is used to formally test the (null) hypothesis of mean equality. The confidence interval plots for data from pavements having three different CTE values visually illustrate the statistical differ- ences in the three means. The interpretation of results will be misleading if the variances of Source Sum of Squares (SS) Degrees of Freedom (df) Mean Square (MS) F Significance Between groups 5652.7 2 0.0002826.3 84.1 Within groups 806.9 24 33.6 Total 6459.6 26 Table 16. ANOVA results. Figure 10. Error bars for % slab cracked with different CTE.

44 effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research populations being compared for their mean difference are not equal or if a proper multiple mean comparisons procedure is not adopted. Based on the comparison of the three means in this example, the engineer can conclude that the pavement slabs having aggregates with a higher CTE value will exhibit more cracking than those with lower CTE values, given that all other variables (e.g., climate effects) remain constant. 7. Applications in Other Areas of Transportation Research: Simple one-way ANOVA is widely used and can be employed whenever multiple means within a factor are to be compared with one another. Potential applications in other areas of transportation research include: • Traffic Operations—to evaluate the effect of commuting time on level of service (LOS) of an urban highway. Mean travel times for three periods (e.g., morning, afternoon, and evening) could be selected for specified highway sections to collect the traffic volume and headway data in all lanes. • Traffic Safety—to determine the effect of shoulder width on accident rates on rural highways. More than two shoulder widths (e.g., 0 feet, 6 feet, 9 feet, and 12 feet) should be selected in this study. • Pavement Engineering—to investigate the impact of air void content on flexible pavement fatigue performance. Pavement sections having three or more air void contents (e.g., 3%, 5%, and 7%) in the surface HMA layer could be selected to compare their average fatigue cracking performance after the same period of service (e.g., 15 years). • Materials—to study the effect of aggregate gradation on the rutting performance of flexible pavements. Three types of aggregate gradations (fine, intermediate, and coarse) could be adopted in the laboratory to make different HMA mix samples. Performance testing could be conducted in the laboratory to measure rut depths for a given number of load cycles. Example 11: Pavements; Factorial Design (ANOVA Approach) Area: Pavements Method of Analysis: Factorial design (an ANOVA approach used to explore the effects of varying more than one independent variable) 1. Research Question/Problem Statement: Extending the information from Example 10 (a simple ANOVA example for pavements), the pavement engineer has verified that the coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) in Portland cement concrete (PCC) is a critical factor affecting thermal behavior of PCC slabs in concrete pavements and significantly affects concrete pave- ment performance in terms of cracking. The engineer now wants to investigate the effects of another factor, joint spacing (JS), in addition to CTE. To study the combined effects of PCC CTE and JS on slab cracking, the engineer needs to conduct a factorial design study by collect- ing field pavement performance data. As before, three CTEs will be considered: • 4 in./in. per °F, • 5 in./in. per °F, and • 6.5 in./in. per °F. Now, three different joint spacings (12 ft, 16 ft, and 20 ft) also will be considered. For this example, it is necessary to compare multiple means within each factor (main effects) and the interaction between the two factors (interactive effects). The statistical technique involved is called a multifactorial two-way ANOVA. 2. Identification and Description of Variables: The engineer identifies uniform 1-mile pavement sections within the state highway network with similar attributes (e.g., slab thickness, traffic, and climate). The field performance, in terms of observed percentage of each slab cracked (% slab cracked) after about 20 years of service for each pavement section, is considered the

examples of effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 45 dependent (or response) variable in the analysis. The available pavement data are stratified based on CTE and JS. CTE and JS are considered the independent variables. The question is whether pavement sections having different CTE and JS exhibit similar performance based on their variability. Question/Issue Use collected data to determine the effects of varying more than one independent variable on some measured outcome. In this example, compare the cracking perfor- mance of concrete pavements considering two independent variables: (1) coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE) as measured using more than two types of aggregate and (2) differing joint spacing (JS). More formally, the hypotheses can be stated as follows: Ho : ai = 0, No difference in % slabs cracked for different CTE values. Ho : gj = 0, No difference in % slabs cracked for different JS values. Ho : (ag)ij = 0, for all i and j, No difference in % slabs cracked for different CTE and JS combinations. 3. Data Collection: The descriptive statistics for % slab cracked data by three CTE and three JS categories are shown in Table 17. From the data stratified by CTE and JS, the engineer has randomly selected three pavement sections within each of nine combinations of CTE values. (In other words, for each of the nine pavement sections from Example 10, the engineer has selected three JS.) 4. Specification of Analysis Technique and Data Analysis: The engineer can use two-way ANOVA test statistics to determine whether the between-section variability is large relative to the within-section variability for each factor to test the following null hypotheses: • Ho : ai = 0 • Ho : gj = 0 • Ho : (ag)ij = 0 As mentioned before, although rejection of the null hypothesis does give the engineer some information concerning differences among the population means (i.e., there are differences among them), it does not clarify which means differ from each other. For example, does µ1 differ from µ2 or µ3? To control the experiment-wise error rate (EER) for the comparison of multiple means, a conservative test—Tukey’s procedure for an unplanned comparison—can be used. (Information about two-way ANOVA is available in NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, CTE (in/in per oF) Marginal µ & σ 4 5 6.5 Joint spacing (ft) 12 1,1 = 32.4 s1,1 = 0.1 1,2 = 46.8 s1,2 = 1.8 1,3 = 65.3 s 1,3 = 3.2 1,. = 48.2 s1,. = 14.4 16 2,1 = 36.0 s2,1 = 2.4 2,2 = 54 s2,2 = 2.9 2,3 = 73 s2,3 = 1.1 2,. = 54.3 s2,. = 16.1 20 3,1 = 42.7 s3,1 = 2.4 3,2 = 60.3 s3,2 = 0.5 3,3 = 79.1 s3,3 = 2.0 3,. = 60.7 s3,. = 15.9 Marginal µ & σ .,1 = 37.0 x– x– x– x– x– x– x– x– x– x– x– x– x– x– x– x– s.,1 = 4.8 .,2 = 53.7 s.,2 = 6.1 .,3 = 72.5 s.,3 = 6.3 .,. = 54.4 s.,. = 15.8 Note: n = 3 in each cell; values are cell means and standard deviations. Table 17. Summary of cracking data.

46 effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research Chapter 4. Information about Tukey’s procedure can be found in almost any good statistics textbook, such as those by Freund and Wilson [2003] and Kutner et al. [2005].) The results of the two-way ANOVA are shown in Table 18. From the first line it can be seen that both of the main effects, CTE and JS, are significant in explaining cracking behavior (i.e., both p-values < 0.05). However, the interaction (CTE × JS) is not significant (i.e., the p-value is 0.999, much greater than 0.05). Also, the test for homogeneity of variances (Levene statistic) shows that there is no significant difference among the standard deviations of % slab cracked for different CTE and JS values. Figure 11 illustrates the main and interactive effects of CTE and JS on % slabs cracked. 5. Interpreting the Results: A two-way (multifactorial) ANOVA is conducted to determine if difference exists among the mean values for “% slab cracked” for different CTE and JS values. The analysis shows that the main effects of both CTE and JS are significant, while the inter- action effect is insignificant (p-value > 0.05). These results show that when CTE and JS are considered jointly, they significantly impact the slab cracking separately. Given these results, the conclusions from the results will be based on the main effects alone without considering interaction effects. In fact, if the interaction effect had been significant, the conclusions would be based on them. To gain more insight, the engineer can use Tukey’s procedure to compare specific multiple means within each factor, or the engineer can simply observe the plotted means in Figure 11 to ascertain which means are significantly different from each other. The plotted results show that the mean % slab cracked varies significantly for different CTE and JS values; that is, the CTE seems to be more influential than JS. All lines are almost parallel to Source Sum of Squares (SS) Degrees of Freedom (df) Mean Square (MS) F Significance CTE 5677.74 2 2838.87 657.16 0.000 JS 703.26 2 351.63 81.40 0.000 CTE × JS 0.12 4 0.03 0.007 0.999 Residual/error 77.76 18 4.32 Total 6458.88 26 Table 18. ANOVA results. M ea n % s la bs c ra ck ed 6.55.04.0 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 201612 CTE JS Main Effects Plot (data means) for Cracking Joint Spacing (ft) M ea n % s la bs c ra ck ed 201612 80 70 60 50 40 30 CTE 6.5 4.0 5.0 Interaction Plot (data means) for Cracking Figure 11. Main and interaction effects of CTE and JS on slab cracking.

examples of effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 47 each other when plotted for both factors together, showing no interactive effects between the levels of two factors. 6. Conclusion and Discussion: The two-way ANOVA can be used to verify the combined effects of CTE and JS on cracking performance of rigid pavements. The marginal mean plot for cracking having three different CTE and JS levels visually illustrates the differences in the multiple means. The plot of cell means for cracking within the levels of each factor can indicate the presence of interactive effect between two factors (in this example, CTE and JS). However, the F-test for multiple means should be used to formally test the hypothesis of mean equality. Finally, based on the comparison of three means within each factor (CTE and JS), the engineer can conclude that the pavement slabs having aggregates with higher CTE and JS values will exhibit more cracking than those with lower CTE and JS values. In this example, the effect of CTE on concrete pavement cracking seems to be more critical than that of JS. 7. Applications in Other Areas of Transportation Research: Multifactorial designs can be used when more than one factor is considered in a study. Possible applications of these methods can extend to all transportation-related areas, including: • Pavement Engineering – to determine the effects of base type and base thickness on pavement performance of flexible pavements. Two or more levels can be considered within each factor; for exam- ple, two base types (aggregate and asphalt-treated bases) and three base thicknesses (8 inches, 12 inches, and 18 inches). – to investigate the impact of pavement surface conditions and vehicle type on fuel con- sumption. The researcher can select pavement sections with three levels of ride quality (smooth, rough, and very rough) and three types of vehicles (cars, vans, and trucks). The fuel consumptions can be measured for each vehicle type on all surface conditions to determine their impact. • Materials – to study the effects of aggregate gradation and surface on tensile strength of hot-mix asphalt (HMA). The engineer can evaluate two levels of gradation (fine and coarse) and two types of aggregate surfaces (smooth and rough). The samples can be prepared for all the combinations of aggregate gradations and surfaces for determination of tensile strength in the laboratory. – to compare the impact of curing and cement types on the compressive strength of concrete mixture. The engineer can design concrete mixes in laboratory utilizing two cement types (Type I & Type III). The concrete samples can be cured in three different ways for 24 hours and 7 days (normal curing, water bath, and room temperature). Example 12: Work Zones; Simple Before-and-After Comparisons Area: Work zones Method of Analysis: Simple before-and-after comparisons (exploring the effect of some treat- ment before it is applied versus after it is applied) 1. Research Question/Problem Statement: The crash rate in work zones has been found to be higher than the crash rate on the same roads when a work zone is not present. For this reason, the speed limit in construction zones often is set lower than the prevailing non-work-zone speed limit. The state DOT decides to implement photo-radar speed enforcement in a work zone to determine if this speed-enforcement technique reduces the average speed of free- flowing vehicles in the traffic stream. They measure the speeds of a sample of free-flowing vehicles prior to installing the photo-radar speed-enforcement equipment in a work zone and

48 effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research then measure the speeds of free-flowing vehicles at the same location after implementing the photo-radar system. Question/Issue Use collected data to determine whether a difference exists between results before and after some treatment is applied. For this example, does a photo-radar speed- enforcement system reduce the speed of free-flowing vehicles in a work zone, and, if so, is the reduction statistically significant? 2. Identification and Description of Variables: The variable to be analyzed is the mean speed of vehicles before and after the implementation of a photo-radar speed-enforcement system in a work zone. 3. Data Collection: The speeds of individual free-flowing vehicles are recorded for 30 minutes on a Tuesday between 10:00 a.m. and 10:30 a.m. before installing the photo-radar system. After the system is installed, the speeds of individual free-flowing vehicles are recorded for 30 minutes on a Tuesday between 10:00 a.m. and 10:30 a.m. The before sample contains 120 observations and the after sample contains 100 observations. 4. Specification of Analysis Technique and Data Analysis: A test of the significance of the difference between two means requires a statement of the hypothesis to be tested (Ho) and a statement of the alternate hypothesis (H1). In this example, these hypotheses can be stated as follows: Ho: There is no difference in the mean speed of free-flowing vehicles before and after the photo-radar speed-enforcement system is displayed. H1: There is a difference in the mean speed of free-flowing vehicles before and after the photo-radar speed-enforcement system is displayed. Because these two samples are independent, a simple t-test is appropriate to test the stated hypotheses. This test requires the following procedure: Step 1. Compute the mean speed (x _ ) for the before sample (x _ b) and the after sample (x _ a) using the following equation: x x n n ni i i n i b a= = = = ∑ 1 120 100; and Results: x _ b = 53.1 mph and x _ a = 50.5 mph. Step 2. Compute the variance (S2) for each sample using the following equation: S x x n i i i n 2 2 1 1 = −( ) − − ∑ where na = 100; x _ a= 50.5 mph; nb = 120; and x _ b = 53.1 mph Results: S x x n b b b b 2 2 1 12 06= −( ) − =∑ . and S x x n a a a a 2 2 1 12 97= −( ) − =∑ . . Step 3. Compute the pooled variance of the two samples using the following equation: S x x x x n n p a a b b b a 2 2 2 2 = −( ) + −( ) + − ∑∑ Results: S2p = 12.472 and Sp = 3.532.

examples of effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 49 Step 4. Compute the t-statistic using the following equation: t x x S n n n n b a p a b a b = − + Result: t = − ( )( ) + = 53 1 50 5 3 532 100 120 100 120 5 43 . . . . . 5. Interpreting the Results: The results of the sample t-test are obtained by comparing the value of the calculated t-statistic (5.43 in this example) with the value of the t-statistic for the level of confidence desired. For a level of confidence of 95%, the t-statistic must be greater than 1.96 to reject the null hypotheses (Ho) that the use of a photo-radar speed-enforcement sys- tem does not change the speed of free-flowing vehicles. (For more information, see NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Appendix C, Table C-4.) 6. Conclusion and Discussion: The sample problem illustrates the use of a statistical test to determine whether the difference in the value of the variable of interest between the before conditions and the after conditions is statistically significant. The before condition is without photo-radar speed enforcement; and the after condition is with photo-radar speed enforcement. In this sample problem, the computed t-statistic (5.43) is greater than the critical t-statistic (1.96), so the null hypothesis is rejected. This means the change in the speed of free-flowing vehicles when the photo-radar speed-enforcement system is used is statistically significant. The assumption is made that all other factors that would affect the speed of free-flowing vehicles (e.g., traffic mix, weather, or construction activity) are the same in the before-and-after conditions. This test is robust if the normality assumption does not hold completely; however, it should be checked using box plots. For significant departures from normality and variance equality assumptions, non-parametric tests must be conducted. (For more information, see NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Chapter 6, Section C and also Example 21). The reliability of the results in this example could be improved by using a control group. As the example has been constructed, there is an assumption that the only thing that changed at this site was the use of photo-radar speed enforcement; that is, it is assumed that all observed differences are attributable to the use of the photo-radar. If other factors—even something as simple as a general decrease in vehicle speeds in the area—might have impacted speed changes, the effect of the photo-radar speed enforcement would have to be adjusted for those other factors. Measurements taken at a control site (ideally identical to the experiment site) during the same time periods could be used to detect background changes and then to adjust the photo-radar effects. Such a situation is explored in Example 13. 7. Applications in Other Areas in Transportation: The before-and-after comparison can be used whenever two independent samples of data are (or can be assumed to be) normally distributed with equal variance. Applications of before-and-after comparison in other areas of transportation research may include: • Traffic Operations – to compare the average delay to vehicles approaching a signalized intersection when a fixed time signal is changed to an actuated signal or a traffic-adaptive signal. – to compare the average number of vehicles entering and leaving a driveway when access is changed from full access to right-in, right-out only. • Traffic Safety – to compare the average number of crashes on a section of road before and after the road is resurfaced. – to compare the average number of speeding citations issued per day when a stationary operation is changed to a mobile operation. • Maintenance—to compare the average number of citizen complaints per day when a change is made in the snow plowing policy.

50 effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research Example 13: Traffic Safety; Complex Before-and-After Comparisons and Controls Area: Traffic safety Method of Analysis: Complex before-and-after comparisons using control groups (examining the effect of some treatment or application with consideration of other factors that may also have an effect) 1. Research Question/Problem Statement: A state safety engineer wants to estimate the effec- tiveness of fluorescent orange warning signs as compared to standard orange signs in work zones on freeways and other multilane highways. Drivers can see fluorescent signs from a longer distance than standard signs, especially in low-visibility conditions, and the extra cost of the fluorescent material is not too high. Work-zone safety is a perennial concern, especially on freeways and multilane highways where speeds and traffic volumes are high. Question/Issue How can background effects be separated from the effects of a treatment or application? Compared to standard orange signs, do fluorescent orange warning signs increase safety in work zones on freeways and multilane highways? 2. Identification and Description of Variables: The engineer quickly concludes that there is a need to collect and analyze safety surrogate measures (e.g., traffic conflicts and late lane changes) rather than collision data. It would take a long time and require experimentation at many work zones before a large sample of collision data could be ready for analysis on this question. Surrogate measures relate to collisions, but they are much more numerous and it is easier to collect a large sample of them in a short time. For a study of traffic safety, surrogate measures might include near-collisions (traffic conflicts), vehicle speeds, or locations of lane changes. In this example, the engineer chooses to use the location of the lane-change maneuver made by drivers in a lane to be closed entering a work zone. This particular surrogate safety measure is a measure of effectiveness (MOE). The hypothesis is that the farther downstream at which a driver makes a lane change out of a lane to be closed—when the highway is still below capacity—the safer the work zone. 3. Data Collection: The engineer establishes site selection criteria and begins examining all active work zones on freeways and multilane highways in the state for possible inclusion in the study. The site selection criteria include items such as an active work zone, a cooperative contractor, no interchanges within the approach area, and the desired lane geometry. Seven work zones meet the criteria and are included in the study. The engineer decides to use a before-and-after (sometimes designated B/A or b/a) experiment design with randomly selected control sites. The latter are sites in the same population as the treatment sites; that is, they meet the same selection criteria but are untreated (i.e., standard warning signs are employed, not the fluorescent orange signs). This is a strong experiment design because it minimizes three common types of bias in experiments: history, maturation, and regression to the mean. History bias exists when changes (e.g., new laws or large weather events) happen at about the same time as the treatment in an experiment, so that the engineer or analyst cannot separate the effect of the treatment from the effects of the other events. Maturation bias exists when gradual changes occur throughout an extended experiment period and cannot be separated from the effects of the treatment. Examples of maturation bias might involve changes like the aging of driver populations or new vehicles with more air bags. History and maturation biases are referred to as specification errors and are described in more detail in NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2,

examples of effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 51 Chapter 1, in the section “Quasi-Experiments.” Regression-to-the-mean bias exists when sites with the highest MOE levels in the before time period are treated. If the MOE level falls in the after period, the analyst can never be sure how much of the fall was due to the treatment and how much was due to natural fluctuations in the values of the MOE back toward its usual mean value. A before-and-after study with randomly selected control sites minimizes these biases because their effects are expected to apply just as much to the treatment sites as to the control sites. In this example, the engineer randomly selects four of the seven work zones to receive fluorescent orange signs. The other three randomly selected work zones received standard orange signs and are the control sites. After the signs have been in place for a few weeks (a common tactic in before-and-after studies to allow regular drivers to get used to the change), the engineer collects data at all seven sites. The location of each vehicle’s lane-change maneuver out of the lane to be closed is measured from video tape recorded for several hours at each site. Table 19 shows the lane-change data at the midpoint between the first warning sign and beginning of the taper. Notice that the same number of vehicles is observed in the before-and- after periods for each type of site. 4. Specification of Analysis Technique and Data Analysis: Depending on their format, data from a before-and-after experiment with control sites may be analyzed several ways. The data in the table lend themselves to analysis with a chi-square test to see whether the distributions between the before-and-after conditions are the same at both the treatment and control sites. (For more information about chi-square testing, see NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Chapter 6, Section E, “Chi-Square Test for Independence.”) To perform the chi-square test on the data for Example 13, the engineer first computes the expected value in each cell. For the cell corresponding to the before time period for control sites, this value is computed as the row total (3361) times the column total (2738) divided by the grand total (6714): 3361 2738 6714 1371 = vehicles The engineer next computes the chi-square value for each cell using the following equation: χi i i i O E E 2 2 = −( ) where Oi is the number of actual observations in cell i and Ei is the expected number of observations in cell i. For example, the chi-square value in the cell corresponding to the before time period for control sites is (1262 - 1371)2 / 1371 = 8.6. The engineer then sums the chi-square values from all four cells to get 29.1. That sum is then compared to the critical chi-square value for the significance level of 0.025 with 1 degree of freedom (degrees of freedom = number of rows - 1 * number of columns - 1), which is shown on a standard chi-square distribution table to be 5.02 (see NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Appendix C, Table C-2.) A significance level of 0.025 is not uncommon in such experiments (although 0.05 is a general default value), but it is a standard that is difficult but not impossible to meet. Time Period Number of Vehicles Observed in Lane to be Closed at Midpoint Control Treatment Total Before 1262 2099 3361 After 1476 1877 3353 Total 2738 3976 6714 Table 19. Lane-change data for before-and-after comparison using controls.

52 effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 5. Interpreting the Results: Because the calculated chi-square value is greater than the critical chi-square value, the engineer concludes that there is a statistically significant difference in the number of vehicles in the lane to be closed at the midpoint between the before-and-after time periods for the treatment sites relative to what would be expected based on the control sites. In other words, there is a difference that is due to the treatment. 6. Conclusion and Discussion: The experiment results show that fluorescent orange signs in work zone approaches like those tested would likely have a safety benefit. Although the engi- neer cannot reasonably estimate the number of collisions that would be avoided by using this treatment, the before-and-after study with control using a safety surrogate measure makes it clear that some collisions will be avoided. The strength of the experiment design with randomly selected control sites means that agencies can have confidence in the results. The consequences of an error in an analysis like this that results in the wrong conclusion can be devastating. If the error leads an agency to use a safety measure more than it should, precious safety funds will be wasted that could be put to better use. If the error leads an agency to use the safety measure less often than it should, money will be spent on measures that do not prevent as many collisions. With safety funds in such short supply, solid analyses that lead to effective decisions on countermeasure deployment are of great importance. A before-and-after experiment with control is difficult to arrange in practice. Such an experiment is practically impossible using collision data, because that would mean leaving some higher collision sites untreated during the experiment. Such experiments are more plausible using surrogate measures like the one described in this example. 7. Applications in Other Areas of Transportation Research: Before-and-after experiments with randomly selected control sites are difficult to arrange in transportation safety and other areas of transportation research. The instinct to apply treatments to the worst sites, rather than randomly—as this method requires—is difficult to overcome. Despite the difficulties, such experiments are sometimes performed in: • Traffic Operations—to test traffic control strategies at a number of different intersections. • Pavement Engineering—to compare new pavement designs and maintenance processes to current designs and practice. • Materials—to compare new materials, mixes, or processes to standard mixtures or processes. Example 14: Work Zones; Trend Analysis Area: Work zones Method of Analysis: Trend analysis (examining, describing, and modeling how something changes over time) 1. Research Question/Problem Statement: Measurements conducted over time often reveal patterns of change called trends. A model may be used to predict some future measurement, or the relative success of a different treatment or policy may be assessed. For example, work/ construction zone safety has been a concern for highway officials, engineers, and planners for many years. Is there a pattern of change? Question/Issue Can a linear model represent change over time? In this particular example, is there a trend over time for motor vehicle crashes in work zones? The problem is to predict values of crash frequency at specific points in time. Although the question is simple, the statistical modeling becomes sophisticated very quickly.

examples of effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 53 2. Identification and Description of Variables: Highway safety, rather the lack of it, is revealed by the total number of fatalities due to motor vehicle crashes. The percentage of those deaths occurring in work zones reveals a pattern over time (Figure 12). The data points for the graph are calculated using the following equation: WZP a b YEAR u= + + where WZP = work zone percentage of total fatalities, YEAR = calendar year, and u = an error term, as used here. 3. Data Collection: The base data are obtained from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System maintained by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), as reported at www.workzonesafety.org. The data are state specific as well as for the country as a whole, and cover a period of 26 years from 1982 through 2007. The numbers of fatalities from motor vehicle crashes in and not in construction/maintenance zones (work zones) are used to compute the percentage of fatalities in work zones for each of the 26 years. 4. Specification of Analysis Techniques and Data Analysis: Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression is used to develop the general model specified above. The discussion in this example focuses on the resulting model and the related statistics. (See also examples 15, 16, and 17 for details on calculations. For more information about OLS regression, see NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Chapter 4, Section B, “Linear Regression.”) Looking at the data in Figure 12 another way, WZP = -91.523 (-8.34) (0.000) + 0.047(YEAR) (8.51) (0.000) R = 0.867 t-values p-values R2 = 0.751 The trend is significant: the line (trend) shows an increase of 0.047% each year. Generally, this trend shows that work-zone fatalities are increasing as a percentage of total fatalities. 5. Interpreting the Results: This experiment is a good fit and generally shows that work-zone fatalities were an increasing problem over the period 1982 through 2007. This is a trend that highway officials, engineers, and planners would like to change. The analyst is therefore interested in anticipating the trajectory of the trend. Here the trend suggests that things are getting worse. Figure 12. Percentage of all motor vehicle fatalities occurring in work zones.

54 effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research How far might authorities let things go—5%? 10%? 25%? Caution must be exercised when interpreting a trend beyond the limits of the available data. Technically the slope, or b-coefficient, is the trend of the relationship. The a-term from the regression, also called the intercept, is the value of WZP when the independent variable equals zero. The intercept for the trend in this example would technically indicate that the percentage of motor vehicle fatalities in work zones in the year zero would be -91.5%. This is absurd on many levels. There could be no motor vehicles in year zero, and what is a negative percentage of the total? The absurdity of the intercept in this example reveals that trends are limited concepts, limited to a relevant time frame. Figure 12 also suggests that the trend, while valid for the 26 years in aggregate, doesn’t work very well for the last 5 years, during which the percentages are consistently falling, not rising. Something seems to have changed around 2002; perhaps the highway officials, engineers, and planners took action to change the trend, in which case, the trend reversal would be considered a policy success. Finally, some underlying assumptions must be considered. For example, there is an implicit assumption that the types of roads with construction zones are similar from year to year. If this assumption is not correct (e.g., if a greater number of high speed roads, where fatalities may be more likely, are worked on in some years than in others), then interpreting the trend may not make much sense. 6. Conclusion and Discussion: The computation of this dependent variable (the percent of motor-vehicle fatalities occurring in work zones, or MZP) is influenced by changes in the number of work-zone fatalities and the number of non-work-zone fatalities. To some extent, both of these are random variables. Accordingly, it is difficult to distinguish a trend or trend reversal from a short series of possibly random movements in the same direction. Statistically, more observations permit greater confidence in non-randomness. It is also possible that a data series might be recorded that contains regular, non-random movements that are unrelated to a trend. Consider the dependent variable above (MZP), but measured using monthly data instead of annual data. Further, imagine looking at such data for a state in the upper Midwest instead of for the nation as a whole. In this new situation, the WZP might fall off or halt altogether each winter (when construction and maintenance work are minimized), only to rise again in the spring (reflecting renewed work-zone activity). This change is not a trend per se, nor is it random. Rather, it is cyclical. 7. Applications in Other Areas of Transportation Research: Applications of trend analysis models in other areas of transportation research include: • Transportation Safety—to identify trends in traffic crashes (e.g., motor vehicle/deer) over time on some part of the roadway system (e.g., freeways). • Public Transportation—to determine the trend in rail passenger trips over time (e.g., in response to increasing gas prices). • Pavement Engineering—to monitor the number of miles of pavement that is below some service-life threshold over time. • Environment—to monitor the hours of truck idling time in rest areas over time. Example 15: Structures/Bridges; Trend Analysis Area: Structures/bridges Method of Analysis: Trend analysis (examining a trend over time) 1. Research Question/Problem Statement: A state agency wants to monitor trends in the condition of bridge superstructures in order to perform long-term needs assessment for bridge rehabilitation or replacement. Bridge condition rating data will be analyzed for bridge

examples of effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 55 2. Identification and Description of Variables: Bridge inspection generally entails collection of numerous variables including location information, traffic data, structural elements (type and condition), and functional characteristics. Based on the severity of deterioration and the extent of spread through a bridge component, a condition rating is assigned on a dis- crete scale from 0 (failed) to 9 (excellent). Generally a condition rating of 4 or below indicates deficiency in a structural component. The state agency inspects approximately 300 bridges every year (denominator). The number of superstructures that receive a rating of 4 or below each year (number of events, numerator) also is recorded. The agency is concerned with the change in overall rate (calculated per 100) of structurally deficient bridge superstructures. This rate, which is simply the ratio of the numerator to the denominator, is the indicator (dependent variable) to be examined for trend over a time period of 15 years. Notice that the unit of analysis is the time period and not the individual bridge superstructures. 3. Data Collection: Data are collected for bridges scheduled for inspection each year. It is important to note that the bridge condition rating scale is based on subjective categories, and therefore there may be inherent variability among inspectors in their assignments of rates to bridge superstructures. Also, it is assumed that during the time period for which the trend analysis is conducted, no major changes are introduced in the bridge inspection methods. Sample data provided in Table 20 show the rate (per 100), number of bridges per year that received a score of four or below, and total number of bridges inspected per year. 4. Specification of Analysis Technique and Data Analysis: The data set consists of 15 observa- tions, one for each year. Figure 13 shows a scatter plot of the rate (dependent variable) versus time in years. The scatter plot does not indicate the presence of any outliers. The scatter plot shows a seemingly increasing linear trend in the rate of deficient superstructures over time. No need for data transformation or smoothing is apparent from the examination of the scatter plot in Figure 13. To determine whether the apparent linear trend is statistically significant in this data, ordinary least squares (OLS) regression can be employed. Question/Issue Use collected data to determine if the values that some variables have taken show an increasing trend or a decreasing trend over time. In this example, determine if levels of structural deficiency in bridge superstructures have been increasing or decreasing over time, and determine how rapidly the increase or decrease has occurred. No. Year Rate (per 100) Number of Events (Numerator) Number of Bridges Inspected (Denominator) 1 1990 8.33 25 300 2 1991 8.70 26 299 5 1994 10.54 31 294 11 2000 13.55 42 310 15 2004 14.61 45 308 Table 20. Sample bridge inspection data. superstructures that have been inspected over a period of 15 years. The objective of this study is to examine the overall pattern of change in the indicator variable over time.

56 effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research The linear regression model takes the following form: y x ei o i i= + +β β1 where i = 1, 2, . . . , n (n = 15 in this example), y = dependent variable (rate of structurally deficient bridge superstructures), x = independent variable (time), bo = y-intercept (only provides reference point), b1 = slope (change in unit y for a change in unit x), and ei = residual error. The first step is to estimate the bo and b1 in the regression function. The residual errors (e) are assumed to be independently and identically distributed (i.e., they are mutually independent and have the same probability distribution). b1 and bo can be computed using the following equations: ˆ . ˆ β β 1 1 2 1 0 454= −( ) −( ) −( ) = = = = ∑ ∑ x x y y x x i i i n i i n o y x− =β1 8 396. where y _ is the overall mean of the dependent variable and x _ is the overall mean of the independent variable. The prediction equation for rate of structurally deficient bridge superstructures over time can be written using the following equation: ˆ ˆ ˆ . .y x xo= + = +β β1 8 396 0 454 That is, as time increases by a year, the rate of structurally deficient bridge superstructures increases by 0.454 per 100 bridges. The plot of the regression line is shown in Figure 14. Figure 14 indicates some small variability about the regression line. To conduct hypothesis testing for the regression relationship (Ho: b1 = 0), assessment of this variability and the assumption of normality would be required. (For a discussion on assumptions for residual errors, see NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Chapter 4.) Like analysis of variance (ANOVA, described in examples 8, 9, and 10), statistical inference is initiated by partitioning the total sum of squares (TSS) into the error sum of squares (SSE) Figure 13. Scatter plot of time versus rate. 7.00 9.00 11.00 13.00 15.00 Time in years Ra te p er 1 00 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15

examples of effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 57 and the model sum of squares (SSR). That is, TSS = SSE + SSR. The TSS is defined as the sum of the squares of the difference of each observation from the overall mean. In other words, deviation of observation from overall mean (TSS) = deviation of observation from prediction (SSE) + deviation of prediction from overall mean (SSR). For our example, TSS y y SSR x x i i n i = −( ) = = −( ) = = ∑ 2 1 1 2 2 60 892 57 7 . ˆ .β 90 3 102 1i n SSE TSS SSR = ∑ = − = . Regression analysis computations are usually summarized in a table (see Table 21). The mean squared errors (MSR, MSE) are computed by dividing the sums of squares by corresponding model and error degrees of freedom. For the null hypothesis (Ho: b1 = 0) to be true, the expected value of MSR is equal to the expected value of MSE such that F = MSR/MSE should be a random draw from an F-distribution with 1, n - 2 degrees of freedom. From the regression shown in Table 21, F is computed to be 242.143, and the probability of getting a value larger than the F computed is extremely small. Therefore, the null hypothesis is rejected; that is, the slope is significantly different from zero, and the linearly increasing trend is found to be statistically significant. Notice that a slope of zero implies that knowing a value of the independent variable provides no insight on the value of the dependent variable. 5. Interpreting the Results: The linear regression model does not imply any cause-and-effect relationship between the independent and dependent variables. The y-intercept only provides a reference point, and the relationship need not be linear outside the data range. The 95% confidence interval for b1 is computed as [0.391, 0.517]; that is, the analyst is 95% confident that the true mean increase in the rate of structurally deficient bridge superstructures is between Plot of regression line y = 8.396 + 0.454x R2 = 0.949 7.00 9.00 11.00 13.00 15.00 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 Time in years Ra te p er 1 00 Figure 14. Plot of regression line. Source Sum of Squares (SS) Degrees of Freedom (df) Mean Square F Significance Regression 57.790 1 57.790 (MSR) 242.143 8.769e-10 Error 3.102 13 0.239 (MSE) Total 60.892 14 Table 21. Analysis of regression table.

58 effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 0.391% and 0.517% per year. (For a discussion on computing confidence intervals, see NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Chapter 4.) The coefficient of determination (R2) provides an indication of the model fit. For this example, R2 is calculated using the following equation: R SSE TSS 2 0 949= = . The R2 indicates that the regression model accounts for 94.9% of the total variation in the (hypothetical) data. It should be noted that such a high value of R2 is almost impossible to attain from analysis of real observational data collected over a long time. Also, distributional assumptions must be checked before proceeding with linear regression, as serious violations may indicate the need for data transformation, use of non-linear regression or non-parametric methods, and so on. 6. Conclusion and Discussion: In this example, simple linear regression has been used to deter- mine the trend in the rate of structurally deficient bridge superstructures in a geographic area. In addition to assessing the overall patterns of change, trend analysis may be performed to: • study the levels of indicators of change (or dependent variables) in different time periods to evaluate the impact of technical advances or policy changes; • compare different geographic areas or different populations with perhaps varying degrees of exposure in absolute and relative terms; and • make projections to monitor progress toward an objective. However, given the dynamic nature of trend data, many of these applications require more sophisticated techniques than simple linear regression. An important aspect of examining trends over time is the accuracy of numerator and denominator data. For example, bridge structures may be examined more than once during the analysis time period, and retrofit measures may be taken at some deficient bridges. Also, the age of structures is not accounted for in this analysis. For the purpose of this example, it is assumed that these (and other similar) effects are negligible and do not confound the data. In real-life application, however, if the analysis time period is very long, it becomes extremely important to account for changes in factors that may have affected the dependent variable(s) and their measurement. An example of the latter could be changes in the volume of heavy trucks using the bridge, changes in maintenance policies, or changes in plowing and salting regimes. 7. Applications in Other Areas of Transportation Research: Trend analysis is carried out in many areas of transportation research, such as: • Transportation Planning/Traffic Operations—to determine the need for capital improve- ments by examining traffic growth over time. • Traffic Safety—to study the trends in overall, fatal, and/or injury crash rates over time in a geographic area. • Pavement Engineering—to assess the long-term performance of pavements under varying loads. • Environment—to monitor the emission levels from commercial traffic over time with growth of industrial areas. Example 16: Transportation Planning; Multiple Regression Analysis Area: Transportation planning Method of Analysis: Multiple regression analysis (testing proposed linear models with more than one independent variable when all variables are continuous)

examples of effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 59 1. Research Question/Problem Statement: Transportation planners and engineers often work on variations of the classic four-step transportation planning process for estimat- ing travel demand. The first step, trip generation, generally involves developing a model that can be used to predict the number of trips originating or ending in a zone, which is a geographical subdivision of a corridor, city, or region (also referred to as a traffic analysis zone or TAZ). The objective is to develop a statistical relationship (a model) that can be used to explain the variation in a dependent variable based on the variation of one or more independent variables. In this example, ordinary least squares (OLS) regres- sion is used to develop a model between trips generated (the dependent variable) and demographic, socio-economic, and employment variables (independent variables) at the household level. Question/Issue Can a linear relationship (model) be developed between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables? In this application, the dependent variable is the number of trips produced by households. Independent variables include persons, workers, and vehicles in a household, household income, and average age of persons in the household. The basic question is whether the relationship between the dependent (Y) and independent (X) variables can be represented by a linear model using two coefficients (a and b), expressed as follows: Y X= +a b i where a = the intercept and b = the slope of the line. If the relationship being examined involves more than one independent variable, the equa- tion will simply have more terms. In addition, in a more formal presentation, the equation will also include an error term, e, added at the end. 2. Identification and Description of Variables: Data for four-step modeling of travel demand or for calibration of any specific model (e.g., trip generation or trip origins) come from a variety of sources, ranging from the U.S. Census to mail or telephone surveys. The data that are collected will depend, in part, on the specific purpose of the modeling effort. Data appropriate for a trip-generation model typically are collected from some sort of household survey. For the dependent variable in a trip-generation model, data must be collected on trip-making characteristics. These characteristics could include something as simple as the total trips made by a household in a day or involve more complicated break- downs by trip purpose (e.g., work-related trips versus shopping trips) and time of day (e.g., trips made during peak and non-peak hours). The basic issue that must be addressed is to determine the purpose of the proposed model: What is to be estimated or predicted? Weekdays and work trips normally are associated with peak congestion and are often the focus of these models. For the independent variable(s), the analyst must first give some thought to what would be the likely causes for household trips to vary. For example, it makes sense intuitively that household size might be pertinent (i.e., it seems reasonable that more persons in the household would lead to a higher number of household trips). Household members could be divided into workers and non-workers, two variables instead of one. Likewise, other socio-economic characteristics, such as income-related variables, might also make sense as candidate variables for the model. Data are collected on a range of candidate variables, and

60 effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research the analysis process is used to sort through these variables to determine which combination leads to the best model. To be used in ordinary regression modeling, variables need to be continuous; that is, measured ratio or interval scale variables. Nominal data may be incorporated through the use of indicator (dummy) variables. (For more information on continuous variables, see NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Chapter 1; for more information on dummy variables, see NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Chapter 4). 3. Data Collection: As noted, data for modeling travel demand often come from surveys designed especially for the modeling effort. Data also may be available from centralized sources such as a state DOT or local metropolitan planning organization (MPO). 4. Specification of Analysis Techniques and Data Analysis: In this example, data for 178 house- holds in a small city in the Midwest have been provided by the state DOT. The data are obtained from surveys of about 15,000 households all across the state. This example uses only a tiny portion of the data set (see Table 22). Based on the data, a fairly obvious relationship is initially hypothesized: more persons in a household (PERS) should produce more person- trips (TRIPS). In its simplest form, the regression model has one dependent variable and one independent variable. The underlying assumption is that variation in the independent variable causes the variation in the dependent variable. For example, the dependent variable might be TRIPSi (the count of total trips made on a typical weekday), and the independent variable might be PERS (the total number of persons, or occupants, in the household). Expressing the relation- ship between TRIPS and PERS for the ith household in a sample of households results in the following hypothesized model: TRIPS PERSi i i= + +a b i ε where a and b are coefficients to be determined by ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analysis and ei is the error term. The difference between the value of TRIPS for any household predicted using the devel- oped equation and the actual observed value of TRIPS for that same household is called the residual. The resulting model is an equation for the best fit straight line (for the given data) where a is the intercept and b is the slope of the line. (For more information about fitted regression and measures of fit see NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Chapter 4). In Table 22, R is the multiple R, the correlation coefficient in the case of the simplest linear regression involving one variable (also called univariate regression). The R2 (coefficient of determination) may be interpreted as the proportion of the variance of the dependent variable explained by the fitted regression model. The adjusted R2 corrects for the number of independent variables in the equation. A “perfect” R2 of 1.0 could be obtained if one included enough independent variables (e.g., one for each observation), but doing so would hardly be useful. Coefficients t-values (statistics) p-values Measures of Fit a = 3.347 4.626 0.000 R = 0.510 b = 2.001 7.515 0.000 R2 = 0.260 Adjusted R2 = 0.255 Table 22. Regression model statistics.

examples of effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 61 Restating the now-calibrated model, TRIPS PERS= +4 626 7 515. . i The statistical significance of each coefficient estimate is evaluated with the p-values of calculated t-statistics, provided the errors are normally distributed. The p-values (also known as probability values) generally indicate whether the coefficients are significantly different from zero (which they need to be in order for the model to be useful). More formally stated, a p-value is the probability of a Type I error. In this example, the t- and p-values shown in Table 22 indicate that both a and b are sig- nificantly different from zero at a level of significance greater than the 99.9% confidence level. P-values are generally offered as two-tail (two-sided hypothesis testing) test values in results from most computer packages; one-tail (one-sided) values may sometimes be obtained by dividing the printed p-values by two. (For more information about one-sided versus two- sided hypothesis testing, see NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Chapter 4.) The R2 may be tested with an F-statistic; in this example, the F was calculated as 56.469 (degrees of freedom = 2, 176) (See NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Chapter 4). This means that the model explains a significant amount of the variation in the dependent variable. A plot of the estimated model (line) and the actual data are shown in Figure 15. A strict interpretation of this model suggests that a household with zero occupants (PERS = 0) will produce 3.347 trips per day. Clearly, this is not feasible because there can’t be a household of zero persons, which illustrates the kind of problem encountered when a model is extrapolated beyond the range of the data used for the calibration. In other words, a formal test of the intercept (the a) is not always meaningful or appropriate. Extension of the Model to Multivariate Regression: When the list of potential inde- pendent variables is considered, the researcher or analyst might determine that more than one cause for variation in the dependent variable may exist. In the current example, the question of whether there is more than one cause for variation in the number of trips can be considered. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 PERS 0 10 20 30 40 TR IP S Figure 15. Plot of the line for the estimated model.

62 effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research The model just discussed for evaluating the effect of one independent variable is called a uni- variate model. Should the final model for this example be multivariate? Before determining the final model, the analyst may want to consider whether a variable or variables exist that further clarify what has already been modeled (e.g., more persons cause more trips). The variable PERS is a crude measure, made up of workers and non-workers. Most households have one or two workers. It can be shown that a measure of the non-workers in the household is more effective in explaining trips than is total persons; so a new variable, persons minus workers (DEP), is calculated. Next, variables may exist that address entirely different causal relationships. It might be hypothesized that as the number of registered motor vehicles available in the household (VEH) increases, the number of trips will increase. It may also be argued that as household income (INC, measured in thousands of dollars) increases, the number of trips will increase. Finally, it may be argued that as the average age of household occupants (AVEAGE) increases, the number of trips will decrease because retired people generally make fewer trips. Each of these statements is based upon a logical argument (hypothesis). Given these arguments, the hypothesized multivariate model takes the following form: TRIPS DEP VEH INC AVEAGE= + + + + +a b c d ei i i i ε The results from fitting the multivariate model are given in Table 23. Results of the analysis of variance (ANOVA) for the overall model are shown in Table 24. 5. Interpreting the Results: It is common for regression packages to provide some values in scientific notation as shown for the p-values in Table 23. The coefficient d, showing the relationship of TRIPS with INC, is read 1.907 E-05, which in turn is read as 1.907  10-5 or 0.000001907. All coefficients are of the expected sign and significantly different from 0 (at the 0.05 level) except for d. However, testing the intercept makes little sense. (The intercept value would be the number of trips for a household with 0 vehicles, 0 income, 0 average age, and 0 depen- dents, a most unlikely household.) The overall model is significant as shown by the F-ratio and its p-value, meaning that the model explains a significant amount of the variation in Coefficients t-values (statistics) p-values Measures of Fit a = 8.564 6.274 3.57E-09* R = 0.589 b = 0.899 2.832 0.005 R2 = 0.347 c = 1.067 3.360 0.001 adjusted R2 = 0.330 d = 1.907E-05* 1.927 0.056 e = -0.098 -4.808 3.68E-06 *See note about scientific notation in Section 5, Interpreting the Results. Table 23. Results from fitting the multivariate model. ANOVA Sum of Squares (SS) Degrees of Freedom (df) F-ratio p-value Regression 1487.5 4 19.952 3.4E-13 Residual 2795.7 150 Table 24. ANOVA results for the overall model.

examples of effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 63 the dependent variable. This model should reliably explain 33% of the variance of house- hold trip generation. Caution should be exercised when interpreting the significance of the R2 and the overall model because it is not uncommon to have a significant F-statistic when some of the coefficients in the equation are not significant. The analyst may want to consider recalibrating the model without the income variable because the coefficient d was insignificant. 6. Conclusion and Discussion: Regression, particularly OLS regression, relies on several assumptions about the data, the nature of the relationships, and the results. Data are assumed to be interval or ratio scale. Independent variables generally are assumed to be measured without error, so all error is attributed to the model fit. Furthermore, indepen- dent variables should be independent of one another. This is a serious concern because the presence in the model of related independent variables, called multicollinearity, compro- mises the t-tests and confuses the interpretation of coefficients. Tests of this problem are available in most statistical software packages that include regression. Look for Variance- Inflation Factor (VIF) and/or Tolerance tests; most packages will have one or the other, and some will have both. In the example above where PERS is divided into DEP and workers, knowing any two variables allows the calculation of the third. Including all three variables in the model would be a case of extreme multicollinearity and, logically, would make no sense. In this instance, because one variable is a linear combination of the other two, the calculations required (within the analysis program) to calibrate the model would actually fail. If the independent variables are simply highly correlated, the regression coefficients (at a minimum) may not have intuitive meaning. In general, equations or models with highly correlated independent variables are to be avoided; alternative models that examine one variable or the other, but not both, should be analyzed. It is also important to analyze the error distributions. Several assumptions relate to the errors and their distributions (normality, constant variance, uncorrelated, etc.) In transportation plan- ning, spatial variables and associations might become important; they require more elaborate constructs and often different estimation processes (e.g., Bayesian, Maximum Likelihood). (For more information about errors and error distributions, see NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Chapter 4.) Other logical considerations also exist. For example, for the measurement units of the different variables, does the magnitude of the result of multiplying the coefficient and the measured variable make sense and/or have a reasonable effect on the predicted magnitude of the dependent variable? Perhaps more importantly, do the independent variables make sense? In this example, does it make sense that changes in the number of vehicles in the household would cause an increase or decrease in the number of trips? These are measures of operational significance that go beyond consideration of statistical significance, but are no less important. 7. Applications in Other Areas of Transportation Research: Regression is a very important technique across many areas of transportation research, including: • Transportation Planning – to include the other half of trip generation, e.g., predicting trip destinations as a function of employment levels by various types (factory, commercial), square footage of shopping center space, and so forth. – to investigate the trip distribution stage of the 4-step model (log transformation of the gravity model). • Public Transportation—to predict loss/liability on subsidized freight rail lines (function of segment ton-miles, maintenance budgets and/or standards, operating speeds, etc.) for self-insurance computations. • Pavement Engineering—to model pavement deterioration (or performance) as a function of easily monitored predictor variables.

64 effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research Example 17: Traffic Operations; Regression Analysis Area: Traffic operations Method of Analysis: Regression analysis (developing a model to predict the values that some variable can take as a function of one or more other variables, when not all variables are assumed to be continuous) 1. Research Question/Problem Statement: An engineer is concerned about false capacity at inter- sections being designed in a specified district. False capacity occurs where a lane is dropped just beyond a signalized intersection. Drivers approaching the intersection and knowing that the lane is going to be dropped shortly afterward avoid the lane. However, engineers estimating the capacity and level of service of the intersection during design have no reliable way to estimate the percentage of traffic that will avoid the lane (the lane distribution). Question/Issue Develop a model that can be used to predict the values that a dependent vari- able can take as a function of changes in the values of the independent variables. In this particular instance, how can engineers make a good estimate of the lane distribution of traffic volume in the case of a lane drop just beyond an intersec- tion? Can a linear model be developed that can be used to predict this distribu- tion based on other variables? The basic question is whether a linear relationship exists between the dependent variable (Y; in this case, the lane distribution percentage) and some independent variable(s) (X). The relationship can be expressed using the following equation: Y X= +a b i where a is the intercept and b is the slope of the line (see NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Chapter 4, Section B). 2. Identification and Description of Variables: The dependent variable of interest in this example is the volume of traffic in each lane on the approach to a signalized intersection with a lane drop just beyond. The traffic volumes by lane are converted into lane utilization factors (fLU), to be consistent with standard highway capacity techniques. The Highway Capacity Manual defines fLU using the following equation: f v v N LU g g = ( )1 where Vg is the flow rate in a lane group in vehicles per hour, Vg1 is the flow rate in the lane with the highest flow rate of any in the group in vehicles per hour, and N is the number of lanes in the lane group. The engineer thinks that lane utilization might be explained by one or more of 15 different factors, including the type of lane drop, the distance from the intersection to the lane drop, the taper length, and the heavy vehicle percentage. All of the variables are continuous except the type of lane drop. The type of lane drop is used to categorize the sites. 3. Data Collection: The engineer locates 46 lane-drop sites in the area and collects data at these sites by means of video recording. The engineer tapes for up to 3 hours at each site. The data are summarized in 15-minute periods, again to be consistent with standard highway capacity practice. For one type of lane-drop geometry, with two through lanes and an exclusive right- turn lane on the approach to the signalized intersection, the engineer ends up with 88 valid

examples of effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 65 data points (some sites have provided more than one data point), covering 15 minutes each, to use in equation (model) development. 4. Specification of Analysis Technique and Data Analysis: Multiple (or multivariate) regression is a standard statistical technique to develop predictive equations. (More information on this topic is given in NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Chapter 4, Section B). The engineer performs five steps to develop the predictive equation. Step 1. The engineer examines plots of each of the 15 candidate variables versus fLU to see if there is a relationship and to see what forms the relationships might take. Step 2. The engineer screens all 15 candidate variables for multicollinearity. (Multicollinearity occurs when two variables are related to each other and essentially contribute the same informa- tion to the prediction.) Multicollinearity can lead to models with poor predicting power and other problems. The engineer examines the variables for multicollinearity by • looking at plots of each of the 15 candidate variables against every other candidate variable; • calculating the correlation coefficient for each of the 15 candidate independent variables against every other candidate variable; and • using more sophisticated tests (such as the variance influence factor) that are available in statistical software. Step 3. The engineer reduces the set of candidate variables to eight. Next, the engineer uses statistical software to select variables and estimate the coefficients for each selected variable, assuming that the regression equation has a linear form. To select variables, the engineer employs forward selection (adding variables one at a time until the equation fit ceases to improve significantly) and backward elimination (starting with all candidate variables in the equation and removing them one by one until the equation fit starts to deteriorate). The equation fit is measured by R2 (for more information, see NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Chapter 4, Section B, under the heading, “Descriptive Measures of Association Between X and Y”), which shows how well the equation fits the data on a scale from 0 to 1, and other factors provided by statistical software. In this case, forward selection and backward elimination result in an equation with five variables: • Drop: Lane drop type, a 0 or 1 depending on the type; • Left: Left turn status, a 0 or 1 depending on the types of left turns allowed; • Length: The distance from the intersection to the lane drop, in feet ÷ 1000; • Volume: The average lane volume, in vehicles per hour per lane ÷ 1000; and • Sign: The number of signs warning of the lane drop. Notice that the first two variables are discrete variables and had to assume a zero-or-one format to work within the regression model. Each of the five variables has a coefficient that is significantly different from zero at the 95% confidence level, as measured by a t-test. (For more information, see NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Chapter 4, Section B, “How Are t-statistics Interpreted?”) Step 4. Once an initial model has been developed, the engineer plots the residuals for the tentative equation to see whether the assumed linear form is correct. A residual is the differ- ence, for each observation, between the prediction the equation makes for fLU and the actual value of fLU. In this example, a plot of the predicted value versus the residual for each of the 88 data points shows a fan-like shape, which indicates that the linear form is not appropriate. (NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Chapter 4, Section B, Figure 6 provides examples of residual plots that are and are not desirable.) The engineer experiments with several other model forms, including non-linear equations that involve transformations of variables, before settling on a lognormal form that provides a good R2 value of 0.73 and a desirable shape for the residual plot.

66 effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research Step 5. Finally, the engineer examines the candidate equation for logic and practicality, asking whether the variables make sense, whether the signs of the variables make sense, and whether the variables can be collected easily by design engineers. Satisfied that the answers to these questions are “yes,” the final equation (model) can be expressed as follows: f Drop Left LLU = − − + +exp . . . .0 539 0 218 0 148 0 178i i i ength Volume Sign+ −( )0 627 0 105. .i i 5. Interpreting the Results: The process described in this example results in a useful equation for estimating the lane utilization in a lane to be dropped, thereby avoiding the estimation of false capacity. The equation has five terms and is non-linear, which will make its use a bit challenging. However, the database is large, the equation fits the data well, and the equation is logical, which should boost the confidence of potential users. If potential users apply the equation within the ranges of the data used for the calibration, the equation should provide good predictions. Applying any model outside the range of the data on which it was calibrated increases the likelihood of an inaccurate prediction. 6. Conclusion and Discussion: Regression is a powerful statistical technique that provides models engineers can use to make predictions in the absence of direct observation. Engineers tempted to use regression techniques should notice from this and other examples that the effort is substantial. Engineers using regression techniques should not skip any of the steps described above, as doing so may result in equations that provide poor predictions to users. Analysts considering developing a regression model to help make needed predictions should not be intimidated by the process. Although there are many pitfalls in developing a regression model, analysts considering making the effort should also consider the alternative: how the prediction will be made in the absence of a model. In the absence of a model, predic- tions of important factors like lane utilization would be made using tradition, opinion, or simple heuristics. With guidance from NCHRP Project 20-45 and other texts, and with good software available to make the calculations, credible regression models often can be developed that perform better than the traditional prediction methods. Because regression models developed by transportation engineers are often reused in later studies by others, the stakes are high. The consequences of a model that makes poor pre- dictions can be severe in terms of suboptimal decisions. Lane utilization models often are employed in traffic studies conducted to analyze new development proposals. A model that under-predicts utilization in a lane to be dropped may mean that the development is turned down due to the anticipated traffic impacts or that the developer has to pay for additional and unnecessary traffic mitigation measures. On the other hand, a model that over-predicts utilization in a lane to be dropped may mean that the development is approved with insufficient traffic mitigation measures in place, resulting in traffic delays, collisions, and the need for later intervention by a public agency. 7. Applications in Other Areas of Transportation Research: Regression is used in almost all areas of transportation research, including: • Transportation Planning—to create equations to predict trip generation and mode split. • Traffic Safety—to create equations to predict the number of collisions expected on a particular section of road. • Pavement Engineering/Materials—to predict long-term wear and condition of pavements. Example 18: Transportation Planning; Logit and Related Analysis Area: Transportation planning Method of Analysis: Logit and related analysis (developing predictive models when the dependent variable is dichotomous—e.g., 0 or 1)

examples of effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 67 2. Identification and Description of Variables: Considering a typical, traditional urban area in the United States, it is reasonable to argue that the likelihood of taking public transit to work (Y) will be a function of income (X). Generally, more income means less likelihood of taking public transit. This can be modeled using the following equation: Y X ui i i= + +β β1 2 where Xi = family income, Y = 0 if the family uses public transit, and Y = 1 if the family doesn’t use public transit. 3. Data Collection: These data normally are obtained from travel surveys conducted at the local level (e.g., by a metropolitan area or specific city), although the agency that collects the data often is a state DOT. 4. Specification of Analysis Techniques and Data Analysis: In this example the dependent variable is dichotomous and is a linear function of an explanatory variable. Consider the equation E(YiXi) = b1 + b2Xi. Notice that if Pi = probability that Y = 1 (household utilizes transit), then (1 - Pi) = probability that Y = 0 (doesn’t utilize transit). This has been called a linear probability model. Note that within this expression, “i” refers to a household. Thus, Y has the distribution shown in Table 25. Any attempt to estimate this relationship with standard (OLS) regression is saddled with many problems (e.g., non-normality of errors, heteroscedasticity, and the possibility that the predicted Y will be outside the range 0 to 1, to say nothing of pretty terrible R2 values). Question/Issue Can a linear model be developed that can be used to predict the probability that one of two choices will be made? In this example, the question is whether a household will use public transit (or not). Rather than being continuous (as in linear regression), the dependent variable is reduced to two categories, a dichotomous variable (e.g., yes or no, 0 or 1). Although the question is simple, the statistical modeling becomes sophisticated very quickly. 1. Research Question/Problem Statement: Transportation planners often utilize variations of the classic four-step transportation planning process for predicting travel demand. Trip generation, trip distribution, mode split, and trip assignment are used to predict traffic flows under a variety of forecasted changes in networks, population, land use, and controls. Mode split, deciding which mode of transportation a traveler will take, requires predicting mutually exclusive outcomes. For example, will a traveler utilize public transit or drive his or her own car? Table 25. Distribution of Y. Values that Y Takes Probability Meaning/Interpretation 1 Pi Household uses transit 0 1 – Pi Household does not use transit 1.0 Total

68 effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research An alternative formulation for estimating Pi, the cumulative logistic distribution, is expressed by the following equation: Pi Xi = + − +( ) 1 1 1 2ε β β This function can be plotted as a lazy Z-curve where on the left, with low values of X (low household income), the probability starts near 1 and ends at 0 (Figure 16). Notice that, even at 0 income, not all households use transit. The curve is said to be asymptotic to 1 and 0. The value of Pi varies between 1 and 0 in relation to income, X. Manipulating the definition of the cumulative logistic distribution from above, 1 11 2+( ) =− +( )ε β β Xi iP P Pi i Xi+( ) =− +( )ε β β1 2 1 P Pi Xi iε β β− +( ) = −1 2 1 ε β β− +( ) = −1 2 1Xi i i P P and ε β β1 2 1 +( ) = − Xi i i P P The final expression is the ratio of the probability of utilizing public transit divided by the probability of not utilizing public transit. It is called the odds ratio. Next, taking the natural log of both sides (and reversing) results in the following equation: L P P Xi i i i= −   = +ln 1 1 2β β L is called the logit, and this is called a logit model. The left side is the natural log of the odds ratio. Unfortunately, this odds ratio is meaningless for individual households where the prob- ability is either 0 or 1 (utilize or not utilize). If the analyst uses standard OLS regression on this Figure 16. Plot of cumulative logistic distribution showing a lazy Z-curve.

examples of effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 69 equation, with data for individual households, there is a problem because when Pi happens to equal either 0 or 1 (which is all the time!), the odds ratio will, as a result, equal either 0 or infinity (and the logarithm will be undefined) for all observations. However, by using groups of households the problem can be mitigated. Table 26 presents data based on a survey of 701 households, more than half of which use transit (380). The income data are recorded for intervals; here, interval mid-points (Xj) are shown. The number of households in each income category is tallied (Nj), as is the number of households in each income category that utilizes public transit (nj). It is important to note that while there are more than 700 households (i), the number of observations (categories, j) is only 13. Using these data, for each income bracket, the probability of taking transit can be estimated as follows: P n N j j j  = This equation is an expression of relative frequency (i.e., it expresses the proportion in income bracket “j” using transit). An examination of Table 26 shows clearly that there is progression of these relative frequen- cies, with higher income brackets showing lower relative frequencies, just as was hypothesized. We can calculate the odds ratio for each income bracket listed in Table 26 and estimate the following logit function with OLS regression: L n N n N Xj j j j j j= −       = +ln 1 1 2β β The results of this regression are shown in Table 27. The results also can be expressed as an equation: LogOddsRatio X= −1 037 0 00003863. .  5. Interpreting the Results: This model provides a very good fit. The estimates of the coefficients can be inserted in the original cumulative logistic function to directly estimate the probability of using transit for any given X (income level). Indeed, the logistic graph in Figure 16 is produced with the estimated function. Xj ($) Nj (Households) nj (Utilizing Transit) Pj (Defined Above) $6,000 40 30 0.750 $8,000 55 39 0.709 $10,000 65 43 0.662 $13,000 88 58 0.659 $15,000 118 69 0.585 $20,000 81 44 0.543 $25,000 70 33 0.471 $30,000 62 25 0.403 $35,000 40 16 0.400 $40,000 30 11 0.367 $50,000 22 6 0.273 $60,000 18 4 0.222 $75,000 12 2 0.167 Total: 701 380 Table 26. Data examined by groups of households.

70 effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 6. Conclusion and Discussion: This approach to estimation is not without further problems. For example, the N within each income bracket needs to be sufficiently large that the relative fre- quency (and therefore the resulting odds ratio) is accurately estimated. Many statisticians would say that a minimum of 25 is reasonable. This approach also is limited by the fact that only one independent variable is used (income). Common sense suggests that the right-hand side of the function could logically be expanded to include more than one predictor variable (more Xs). For example, it could be argued that educational level might act, along with income, to account for the probability of using transit. However, combining predictor variables severely impinges on the categories (the j) used in this OLS regression formulation. To illustrate, assume that five educational categories are used in addition to the 13 income brackets (e.g., Grade 8 or less, high school graduate to Grade 9, some college, BA or BS degree, and graduate degree). For such an OLS regression analysis to work, data would be needed for 5 × 13, or 65 categories. Ideally, other travel modes should also be considered. In the example developed here, only transit and not-transit are considered. In some locations it is entirely reasonable to examine private auto versus bus versus bicycle versus subway versus light rail (involving five modes, not just two). This notion of a polychotomous logistic regression is possible. However, five modes cannot be estimated with the OLS regression technique employed above. The logit above is a variant of the binomial distribution and the polychotomous logistic model is a variant of the multi- nomial distribution (see NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Chapter 5). Estimation of these more advanced models requires maximum likelihood methods (as described in NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Chapter 5). Other model variants are based upon other cumulative probability distributions. For exam- ple, there is the probit model, in which the normal cumulative density function is used. The probit model is very similar to the logit model, but it is more difficult to estimate. 7. Applications in Other Areas of Transportation Research: Applications of logit and related models abound within transportation studies. In any situation in which human behavior is relegated to discrete choices, the category of models may be applied. Examples in other areas of transportation research include: • Transportation Planning—to model any “choice” issue, such as shopping destination choices. • Traffic Safety—to model dichotomous responses (e.g., did a motorist slow down or not) in response to traffic control devices. • Highway Design—to model public reactions to proposed design solutions (e.g., support or not support proposed road diets, installation of roundabouts, or use of traffic calming techniques). Example 19: Public Transit; Survey Design and Analysis Area: Public transit Method of Analysis: Survey design and analysis (organizing survey data for statistical analysis) Coefficients t-values (statistics) p-values Measures of “Fit” 1 = 1.037 12.156 0.000 R = 0.980 2 = -0.00003863 β β -16.407 0.000 R2 = 0.961 adjusted R2 = 0.957 Table 27. Results of OLS regression.

examples of effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 71 2. Identification and Description of Variables: Two types of variables are needed for this analysis. The first is data on the characteristics of the riders, such as gender, age, and access to an automobile. These data are discrete variables. The second is data on the riders’ stated responses to proposed changes in the fare or service characteristics. These data also are treated as discrete variables. Although some, like the fare, could theoretically be continuous, they are normally expressed in discrete increments (e.g., $1.00, $1.25, $1.50). 3. Data Collection: These data are normally collected by agencies conducting a survey of the transit users. The initial step in the experiment design is to choose the variables to be collected for each of these two data sets. The second step is to determine how to categorize the data. Both steps are generally based on past experience and common sense. Some of the variables used to describe the characteristics of the transit user are dichotomous, such as gender (male or female) and access to an automobile (yes or no). Other variables, such as age, are grouped into discrete categories within which the transit riding characteristics are similar. For example, one would not expect there to be a difference between the transit trip needs of a 14-year-old student and a 15-year-old student. Thus, the survey responses of these two age groups would be assigned to the same age category. However, experience (and common sense) leads one to differentiate a 19-year-old transit user from a 65-year-old transit user, because their purposes for taking trips and their perspectives on the relative value of the fare and the service components are both likely to be different. Obtaining user responses to changes in the fare or service is generally done in one of two ways. The first is to make a statement and ask the responder to mark one of several choices: strongly agree, agree, neither agree nor disagree, disagree, and strongly disagree. The number of statements used in the survey depends on how many parameter changes are being contemplated. Typical statements include: 1. I would increase the number of trips I make each month if the fare were reduced by $0.xx. 2. I would increase the number of trips I make each month if I could purchase a monthly pass. 3. I would increase the number of trips I make each month if the waiting time at the stop were reduced by 10 minutes. 4. I would increase the number of trips I make each month if express services were available from my origin to my destination. The second format is to propose a change and provide multiple choices for the responder. Typical questions for this format are: 1. If the fare were increased by $0.xx per trip I would: a) not change the number of trips per month b) reduce the non-commute trips c) reduce both the commute and non-commute trips d) switch modes 2. If express service were offered for an additional $0.xx per trip I would: a) not change the number of trips per month on this local service b) make additional trips each month c) shift from the local service to the express service Question/Issue Use and analysis of data collected in a survey. Results from a survey of transit users are used to estimate the change in ridership that would result from a change in the service or fare. 1. Research Question/Problem Statement: The transit director is considering changes to the fare structure and the service characteristics of the transit system. To assist in determining which changes would be most effective or efficient, a survey of the current transit riders is developed.

72 effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research These surveys generally are administered by handing a survey form to people as they enter the transit vehicle and collecting them as people depart the transit vehicle. The surveys also can be administered by mail, telephone, or in a face-to-face interview. In constructing the questions, care should be taken to use terms with which the respondents will be familiar. For example, if the system does not currently offer “express” service, this term will need to be defined in the survey. Other technical terms should be avoided. Similarly, the word “mode” is often used by transportation professionals but is not commonly used by the public at large. The length of a survey is almost always an issue as well. To avoid asking too many questions, each question needs to be reviewed to see if it is really necessary and will produce useful data (as opposed to just being something that would be nice to know). 4. Specification of Analysis Technique and Data Analysis: The results of these surveys often are displayed in tables or in frequency distribution diagrams (see also Example 1 and Example 2). Table 28 lists responses to a sample question posed in the form of a statement. Figure 17 shows the frequency diagram for these data. Similar presentations can be made for any of the groupings included in the first type of variables discussed above. For example, if gender is included as a Type 1 question, the results might appear as shown in Table 29 and Figure 18. Figure 18 shows the frequency diagram for these data. Presentations of the data can be made for any combination of the discrete variable groups included in the survey. For example, to display responses of female users over 65 years old, Strongly Agree Agree Neither Agree nor Disagree Disagree Strongly Disagree Total responses 450 600 300 400 100 Table 28. Table of responses to sample statement, “I would increase the number of trips I make each month if the fare were reduced by $0.xx.” 450 600 300 400 100 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 Strongly agree agree neither agree nor disagree disagree strongly disagree Figure 17. Frequency diagram for total responses to sample statement.

examples of effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 73 all of the survey forms on which these two characteristics (female and over 65 years old) are checked could be extracted and recorded in a table and shown in a frequency diagram. 5. Interpreting the Results: Survey data can be used to compare the responses to fare or service changes of different groups of transit users. This flexibility can be important in determining which changes would impact various segments of transit users. The information can be used to evaluate various fare and service options being considered and allows the transit agency to design promotions to obtain the greatest increase in ridership. For example, by creating fre- quency diagrams to display the responses to statements 2, 3, and 4 listed in Section 3, the engi- neer can compare the impact of changing the fare versus changing the headway or providing express services in the corridor. Organizing response data according to different characteristics of the user produces con- tingency tables like the one illustrated for males and females. This table format can be used to conduct chi-square analysis to determine if there is any statistically significant difference among the various groups. (Chi-square analysis is described in more detail in Example 4.) 6. Conclusions and Discussion: This example illustrates how to obtain and present quan- titative information using surveys. Although survey results provide reasonably good esti- mates of the relative importance users place on different transit attributes (fare, waiting time, hours of service, etc.), when determining how often they would use the system, the magnitude of users’ responses often is overstated. Experience shows that what users say they would do (their stated preference) generally is different than what they actually do (their revealed preference). Strongly Agree Agree Neither Agree nor Disagree Disagree Strongly Disagree Male 200 275 200 200 70 Female 250 325 100 200 30 Total responses 450 600 300 400 100 Table 29. Contingency table showing responses by gender to sample statement, “I would increase the number of trips I make each month if the fare were reduced by $0.xx.” 200 275 200 200 70 250 325 100 200 30 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Strongly agree agree neither agree nor disagree disagree strongly disagree Male Female Figure 18. Frequency diagram showing responses by gender to sample statement.

74 effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research In this example, 1,050 of the 1,850 respondents (57%) have responded that they would use the bus service more frequently if the fare were decreased by $0.xx. Five hundred respondents (27%) have indicated that they would not use the bus service more frequently, and 300 respondents (16%) have indicated that they are not sure if they would change their bus use frequency. These percentages show the stated preferences of the users. The engineer does not yet know the revealed preferences of the users, but experience suggests that it is unlikely that 57% of the riders would actually increase the number of trips they make. 7. Applications in Other Area in Transportation: Survey design and analysis techniques can be used to collect and present data in many areas of transportation research, including: • Transportation Planning—to assess public response to a proposal to enact a local motor fuel tax to improve road maintenance in a city or county. • Traffic Operations—to assess public response to implementing road diets (e.g., 4-lane to 3-lane conversions) on different corridors in a city. • Highway Design—to assess public response to proposed alternative cross-section designs, such as a boulevard design versus an undivided multilane design in a corridor. Example 20: Traffic Operations; Simulation Area: Traffic operations Method of Analysis: Simulation (using field data to simulate, or model, operations or outcomes) 1. Research Question/Problem Statement: A team of engineers wants to determine whether one or more unconventional intersection designs will produce lower travel times than a conventional design at typical intersections for a given number of lanes. There is no way to collect field data to compare alternative intersection designs at a particular site. Macroscopic traffic operations models like those in the Highway Capacity Manual do a good job of estimating delay at specific points but are unable to provide travel time estimates for unconventional designs that consist of several smaller intersections and road segments. Microscopic simulation models measure the behaviors of individual vehicles as they traverse the highway network. Such simulation models are therefore very flexible in the types of networks and measures that can be examined. The team in this example turns to a simulation model to determine how other intersection designs might work. Question/Issue Developing and using a computer simulation model to examine operations in a computer environment. In this example, a traffic operations simulation model is used to show whether one or more unconventional intersection designs will produce lower travel times than a conventional design at typical intersections for a given number of lanes. 2. Identification and Description of Variables: The engineering team simulates seven different intersections to provide the needed scope for their findings. At each intersection, the team examines three different sets of traffic volumes: volumes from the evening (p.m.) peak hour, a typical midday off-peak hour, and a volume that is 15% greater than the p.m. peak hour to represent future conditions. At each intersection, the team models the current conventional intersection geometry and seven unconventional designs: the quadrant roadway, median U-turn, superstreet, bowtie, jughandle, split intersection, and continuous flow intersection. Traffic simulation models break the roadway network into nodes (intersections) and links (segments between intersections). Therefore, the engineering team has to design each of the

examples of effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 75 alternatives at each test site in terms of numbers of lanes, lane lengths, and such, and then faithfully translate that geometry into links and nodes that the simulation model can use. For each combination of traffic volume and intersection design, the team uses software to find the optimum signal timing and uses that during the simulation. To avoid bias, the team keeps all other factors (e.g., network size, numbers of lanes, turn lane lengths, truck percentages, average vehicle speeds) constant in all simulation runs. 3. Data Collection: The field data collection necessary in this effort consists of noting the current intersection geometries at the seven test intersections and counting the turning movements in the time periods described above. In many simulation efforts, it is also necessary to collect field data to calibrate and validate the simulation model. Calibration is the process by which simulation output is compared to actual measurements for some key measure(s) such as travel time. If a difference is found between the simulation output and the actual measurement, the simulation inputs are changed until the difference disappears. Validation is a test of the calibrated simulation model, comparing simulation output to a previously unused sample of actual field measurements. In this example, however, the team determines that it is unnecessary to collect calibration and validation data because a recent project has successfully calibrated and validated very similar models of most of these same unconventional designs. The engineer team uses the CORSIM traffic operations simulation model. Well known and widely used, CORSIM models the movement of each vehicle through a specified network in small time increments. CORSIM is a good choice for this example because it was originally designed for problems of this type, has produced appropriate results, has excellent animation and other debugging features, runs quickly in these kinds of cases, and is well-supported by the software developers. The team makes two CORSIM runs with different random number seeds for each combina- tion of volume and design at each intersection, or 48 runs for each intersection altogether. It is necessary to make more than one run (or replication) of each simulation combination with different random number seeds because of the randomness built into simulation models. The experiment design in this case allows the team to reduce the number of replications to two; typical practice in simulations when one is making simple comparisons between two variables is to make at least 5 to 10 replications. Each run lasts 30 simulated minutes. Table 30 shows the simulation data for one of the seven intersections. The lowest travel time produced in each case is bolded. Notice that Table 30 does not show data for the bowtie design. That design became congested (gridlocked) and produced essentially infinite travel times for this intersection. Handling overly congested networks is a difficult problem in many efforts and with several different simulation software packages. The best current advice is for analysts to not push their networks too hard and to scan often for gridlock. 4. Specification of Analysis Technique and Data Analysis: The experiment assembled in this example uses a factorial design. (Factorial design also is discussed in Example 11.) The team analyzes the data from this factorial experiment using analysis of variance (ANOVA). Because Time of Day Total Travel Time, Vehicle-hours, Average of Two Simulation Runs Conventional Quadrant Median U Superstreet Jughandle Split Continuous Midday 67 64 61 74 63 59* 75 P.M. peak 121 95 119 179 139 114 106 Peak + 15% 170 *Lowest total travel time. 135 145 245 164 180 142 Table 30. Simulation results for different designs and time of day.

76 effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research the experimenter has complete control in a simulation, it is common to use efficient designs like factorials and efficient analysis methods like ANOVA to squeeze all possible information out of the effort. Statistical tests comparing the individual mean values of key results by factor are common ways to follow up on ANOVA results. Although ANOVA will reveal which factors make a significant contribution to the overall variance in the dependent variable, means tests will show which levels of a significant factor differ from the other levels. In this example, the team uses Tukey’s means test, which is available as part of the battery of standard tests accom- panying ANOVA in statistical software. (For more information about ANOVA, see NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Chapter 4, Section A.) 5. Interpreting the Results: For the data shown in Table 30, the ANOVA reveals that the volume and design factors are statistically significant at the 99.99% confidence level. Furthermore, the interaction between the volume and design factors also is statistically significant at the 99.99% level. The means tests on the design factors show that the quadrant roadway is significantly different from (has a lower overall travel time than) the other designs at the 95% level. The next- best designs overall are the median U-turn and the continuous flow intersection; these are not statistically different from each other at the 95% level. The third tier of designs consists of the conventional and the split, which are statistically different from all others at the 95% level but not from each other. Finally, the jughandle and the superstreet designs are statistically different from each other and from all other designs at the 95% level according to the means test. Through the simulation, the team learns that several designs appear to be more efficient than the conventional design, especially at higher volume levels. From the results at all seven intersections, the team sees that the quadrant roadway and median U-turn designs generally lead to the lowest travel times, especially with the higher volume levels. 6. Conclusion and Discussion: Simulation is an effective tool to analyze traffic operations, as at the seven intersections of interest in this example. No other tool would allow such a robust comparison of many different designs and provide the results for travel times in a larger net- work rather than delays at a single spot. The simulation conducted in this example also allows the team to conduct an efficient factorial design, which maximizes the information provided from the effort. Simulation is a useful tool in research for traffic operations because it • affords the ability to conduct randomized experiments, • allows the examination of details that other methods cannot provide, and • allows the analysis of large and complex networks. In practice, simulation also is popular because of the vivid and realistic animation output provided by common software packages. The superb animations allow analysts to spot and treat flaws in the design or model and provide agencies an effective tool by which to share designs with politicians and the public. Although simulation results can sometimes be surprising, more often they confirm what the analysts already suspect based on simpler analyses. In the example described here, the analysts suspected that the quadrant roadway and median U-turn designs would perform well because these designs had performed well in prior Highway Capacity Manual calculations. In many studies, simulations provide rich detail and vivid animation but no big surprises. 7. Applications in Other Areas of Transportation Research: Simulations are critical analysis methods in several areas of transportation research. Besides traffic operations, simulations are used in research related to: • Maintenance—to model the lifetime performance of traffic signs. • Traffic Safety – to examine vehicle performance and driver behaviors or performance. – to predict the number of collisions from a new roadway design (potentially, given the recent development of the FHWA SSAM program).

examples of effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 77 Example 21: Traffic Safety; Non-parametric Methods Area: Traffic safety Method of Analysis: Non-parametric methods (methods used when data do not follow assumed or conventional distributions, such as when comparing median values) 1. Research Question/Problem Statement: A city traffic engineer has been receiving many citizen complaints about the perceived lack of safety at unsignalized midblock crosswalks. Apparently, some motorists seem surprised by pedestrians in the crosswalks and do not yield to the pedestrians. The engineer believes that larger and brighter warning signs may be an inexpensive way to enhance safety at these locations. Question/Issue Determine whether some treatment has an effect when data to be tested do not follow known distributions. In this example, a nonparametric method is used to determine whether larger and brighter warning signs improve pedestrian safety at unsignalized midblock crosswalks. The null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis are stated as follows: Ho: There is no difference in the median values of the number of conflicts before and after a treatment. Ha: There is a difference in the median values. 2. Identification and Description of Variables: The engineer would like to collect collision data at crosswalks with improved signs, but it would take a long time at a large sample of crosswalks to collect a reasonable sample size of collisions to answer the question. Instead, the engineer collects data for conflicts, which are near-collisions when one or both of the involved entities brakes or swerves within 2 seconds of a collision to avoid the collision. Research literature has shown that conflicts are related to collisions, and because conflicts are much more numerous than collisions, it is much quicker to collect a good sample size. Conflict data are not nearly as widely used as collision data, however, and the underlying distribution of conflict data is not clear. Thus, the use of non-parametric methods seems appropriate. 3. Data Collection: The engineer identifies seven test crosswalks in the city based on large pedes- trian volumes and the presence of convenient vantage points for observing conflicts. The engi- neering staff collects data on traffic conflicts for 2 full days at each of the seven crosswalks with standard warning signs. The engineer then has larger and brighter warning signs installed at the seven sites. After waiting at least 1 month at each site after sign installation, the staff again collects traffic conflicts for 2 full days, making sure that weather, light, and as many other conditions as possible are similar between the before-and-after data collection periods at each site. 4. Specification of Analysis Technique and Data Analysis: A nonparametric statistical test is an efficient way to analyze data when the underlying distribution is unclear (as in this example using conflict data) and when the sample size is small (as in this example with its small number of sites). Several such tests, such as the sign test and the Wilcoxon signed-rank (Wilcoxon rank-sum) test are plausible in this example. (For more information about nonparametric tests, see NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Chapter 6, Section D, “Hypothesis About Population Medians for Independent Samples.” ) The decision is made to use the Wilcoxon signed-rank test because it is a more powerful test for paired numerical measurements than other tests, and this example uses paired (before-and-after) measurements. The sign test is a popular nonparametric test for paired data but loses information contained in numerical measurements by reducing the data to a series of positive or negative signs.

78 effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research Having decided on the Wilcoxon signed-rank test, the engineer arranges the data (see Table 31). The third row of the table is the difference between the frequencies of the two conflict measurements at each site. The last row shows the rank order of the sites from lowest to highest based on the absolute value of the difference. Site 3 has the least difference (35 - 33 = 2) while Site 7 has the greatest difference (54 - 61 = -16). The Wilcoxon signed-rank test ranks the differences from low to high in terms of absolute values. In this case, that would be 2, 3, 7, 7, 12, 15, and 16. The test statistic, x, is the sum of the ranks that have positive differences. In this example, x = 1 + 2 + 3.5 + 3.5 + 6 = 16. Notice that all but the sixth and seventh ranked sites had positive differences. Notice also that the tied differences were assigned ranks equal to the average of the ranks they would have received if they were just slightly different from each other. The engineer then consults a table for the Wilcoxon signed-rank test to get a critical value against which to compare. (Such a table appears in NCHRP Project 20-45, Volume 2, Appendix C, Table C-8.) The standard table for a sample size of seven shows that the critical value for a one-tailed test (testing whether there is an improvement) with a confidence level of 95% is x = 24. 5. Interpreting the Results: Because the calculated value (x = 16) is less than the critical value (x = 24), the engineer concludes that there is not a statistically significant difference between the number of conflicts recorded with standard signs and the number of conflicts recorded with larger and brighter signs. 6. Conclusion and Discussion: Nonparametric tests do not require the engineer to make restric- tive assumptions about an underlying distribution and are therefore good choices in cases like this, in which the sample size is small and the data collected do not have a familiar underlying distribution. Many nonparametric tests are available, so analysts should do some reading and searching before settling on the best one for any particular case. Once a nonparametric test is determined, it is usually easy to apply. This example also illustrates one of the potential pitfalls of statistical testing. The engineer’s conclusion is that there is not a statistically significant difference between the number of conflicts recorded with standard signs and the number of conflicts recorded with larger and brighter signs. That conclusion does not necessarily mean that larger and brighter signs are a bad idea at sites similar to those tested. Notice that in this experiment, larger and brighter signs produced lower conflict frequencies at five of the seven sites, and the average number of conflicts per site was lower with the larger and brighter signs. Given that signs are relatively inexpensive, they may be a good idea at sites like those tested. A statistical test can provide useful information, especially about the quality of the experiment, but analysts must be careful not to interpret the results of a statistical test too strictly. In this example, the greatest danger to the validity of the test result lies not in the statistical test but in the underlying before-and-after test setup. For the results to be valid, it is necessary that the only important change that affects conflicts at the test sites during data collection be Site 1 Site 2 Site 3 Site 4 Site 5 Site 6 Site 7 Standard signs 170 39 35 32 32 19 45 Larger and brighter signs 155 26 33 29 25 31 61 Difference 15 7 2 3 7 -12 -16 Rank of absolute difference 6 73.5 1 2 3.5 5 Table 31. Number of conflicts recorded during each (equal) time period at each site.

examples of effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research 79 the new signs. The engineer has kept the duration short between the before-and-after data collection periods, which helps minimize the chances of other important changes. However, if there is any reason to suspect other important changes, these test results should be viewed skeptically and a more sophisticated test strategy should be employed. 7. Applications in Other Areas of Transportation Research: Nonparametric tests are helpful when researchers are working with small sample sizes or sample data wherein the underlying distribution is unknown. Examples of other areas of transportation research in which non- parametric tests may be applied include: • Transportation Planning, Public Transportation—to analyze data from surveys and questionnaires when the scale of the response calls into question the underlying distribution. Such data are often analyzed in transportation planning and public transportation. • Traffic Operations—to analyze small samples of speed or volume data. • Structures, Pavements—to analyze quality ratings of pavements, bridges, and other trans- portation assets. Such ratings also use scales. Resources The examples used in this report have included references to the following resources. Researchers are encouraged to consult these resources for more information about statistical procedures. Freund, R. J. and W. J. Wilson (2003). Statistical Methods. 2d ed. Burlington, MA: Academic Press. See page 256 for a discussion of Tukey’s procedure. Kutner, M. et al. (2005). Applied Linear Statistical Models. 5th ed. Boston: McGraw-Hill. See page 746 for a discussion of Tukey’s procedure. NCHRP CD-22: Scientific Approaches to Transportation Research, Vol. 1 and 2. 2002. Transpor- tation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C. This two-volume electronic manual developed under NCHRP Project 20-45 provides a comprehensive source of information on the conduct of research. The manual includes state-of-the-art techniques for problem state- ment development; literature searching; development of the research work plan; execution of the experiment; data collection, management, quality control, and reporting of results; and evaluation of the effectiveness of the research, as well as the requirements for the systematic, pro- fessional, and ethical conduct of transportation research. For readers’ convenience, the references to NCHRP Project 20-45 from the various examples contained in this report are summarized here by topic and location in NCHRP CD-22. More information about NCHRP CD-22 is available at http://www.trb.org/Main/Blurbs/152122.aspx. • Analysis of Variance (one-way ANOVA and two-way ANOVA): See Volume 2, Chapter 4, Section A, Analysis of Variance Methodology (pp. 113, 119–31). • Assumptions for residual errors: See Volume 2, Chapter 4. • Box plots; Q-Q plots: See Volume 2, Chapter 6, Section C. • Chi-square test: See Volume 2, Chapter 6, Sections E (Chi-Square Test for Independence) and F. • Chi-square values: See Volume 2, Appendix C, Table C-2. • Computations on unbalanced designs and multi-factorial designs: See Volume 2, Chapter 4, Section A, Analysis of Variance Methodology (pp. 119–31). • Confidence intervals: See Volume 2, Chapter 4. • Correlation coefficient: See Volume 2, Appendix A, Glossary, Correlation Coefficient. • Critical F-value: See Volume 2, Appendix C, Table C-5. • Desirable and undesirable residual plots (scatter plots): See Volume 2, Chapter 4, Section B, Figure 6.

80 effective experiment Design and Data analysis in transportation research • Equation fit: See Volume 2, Chapter 4, Glossary, Descriptive Measures of Association Between X and Y. • Error distributions (normality, constant variance, uncorrelated, etc.): See Volume 2, Chapter 4 (pp. 146–55). • Experiment design and data collection: See Volume 2, Chapter 1. • Fcrit and F-distribution table: See Volume 2, Appendix C, Table C-5. • F-test (or F-test): See Volume 2, Chapter 4, Section A, Compute the F-ratio Test Statistic (p. 124). • Formulation of formal hypotheses for testing: See Volume 1, Chapter 2, Hypothesis; Volume 2, Appendix A, Glossary. • History and maturation biases (specification errors): See Volume 2, Chapter 1, Quasi- Experiments. • Indicator (dummy) variables: See Volume 2, Chapter 4 (pp. 142–45). • Intercept and slope: See Volume 2, Chapter 4 (pp. 140–42). • Maximum likelihood methods: See Volume 2, Chapter 5 (pp. 208–11). • Mean and standard deviation formulas: See Volume 2, Chapter 6, Table C, Frequency Distribu- tions, Variance, Standard Deviation, Histograms, and Boxplots. • Measured ratio or interval scale: See Volume 2, Chapter 1 (p. 83). • Multinomial distribution and polychotomous logistical model: See Volume 2, Chapter 5 (pp. 211–18). • Multiple (multivariate) regression: See Volume 2, Chapter 4, Section B. • Non-parametric tests: See Volume 2, Chapter 6, Section D. • Normal distribution: See Volume 2, Appendix A, Glossary, Normal Distribution. • One- and two-sided hypothesis testing (one- and two-tail test values): See Volume 2, Chapter 4 (pp. 161 and 164–5). • Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression: See Volume 2, Chapter 4, Section B, Linear Regression. • Sample size and confidence: See Volume 2, Chapter 1, Sample Size Determination. • Sample size determination based on statistical power requirements: See Volume 2, Chapter 1, Sample Size Determination (p. 94). • Sign test and the Wilcoxon signed-rank (Wilcoxon rank-sum) test: See Volume 2, Chapter 6, Section D, and Appendix C, Table C-8, Hypothesis About Population Medians for Independent Samples. • Split samples: See Volume 2, Chapter 4, Section A, Analysis of Variance Methodology (pp. 119–31). • Standard chi-square distribution table: See Volume 2, Appendix C, Table C-2. • Standard normal values: See Volume 2, Appendix C, Table C-1. • tcrit values: See Volume 2, Appendix C, Table C-4. • t-statistic: See Volume 2, Appendix A, Glossary. • t-statistic using equation for equal variance: See Volume 2, Appendix C, Table C-4. • t-test: See Volume 2, Chapter 4, Section B, How are t-statistics Interpreted? • Tabularized values of t-statistic: See Volume 2, Appendix C, Table C-4. • Tukey’s test, Bonferroni’s test, Scheffe’s test: See Volume 2, Chapter 4, Section A, Analysis of Variance Methodology (pp. 119–31). • Types of data and implications for selection of analysis techniques: See Volume 2, Chapter 1, Identification of Empirical Setting.

Abbreviations and acronyms used without definitions in TRB publications: AAAE American Association of Airport Executives AASHO American Association of State Highway Officials AASHTO American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials ACI–NA Airports Council International–North America ACRP Airport Cooperative Research Program ADA Americans with Disabilities Act APTA American Public Transportation Association ASCE American Society of Civil Engineers ASME American Society of Mechanical Engineers ASTM American Society for Testing and Materials ATA American Trucking Associations CTAA Community Transportation Association of America CTBSSP Commercial Truck and Bus Safety Synthesis Program DHS Department of Homeland Security DOE Department of Energy EPA Environmental Protection Agency FAA Federal Aviation Administration FHWA Federal Highway Administration FMCSA Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration FRA Federal Railroad Administration FTA Federal Transit Administration HMCRP Hazardous Materials Cooperative Research Program IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers ISTEA Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 ITE Institute of Transportation Engineers NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NASAO National Association of State Aviation Officials NCFRP National Cooperative Freight Research Program NCHRP National Cooperative Highway Research Program NHTSA National Highway Traffic Safety Administration NTSB National Transportation Safety Board PHMSA Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration RITA Research and Innovative Technology Administration SAE Society of Automotive Engineers SAFETEA-LU Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (2005) TCRP Transit Cooperative Research Program TEA-21 Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century (1998) TRB Transportation Research Board TSA Transportation Security Administration U.S.DOT United States Department of Transportation

TRB’s National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Report 727: Effective Experiment Design and Data Analysis in Transportation Research describes the factors that may be considered in designing experiments and presents 21 typical transportation examples illustrating the experiment design process, including selection of appropriate statistical tests.

The report is a companion to NCHRP CD-22, Scientific Approaches to Transportation Research, Volumes 1 and 2 , which present detailed information on statistical methods.

READ FREE ONLINE

Welcome to OpenBook!

You're looking at OpenBook, NAP.edu's online reading room since 1999. Based on feedback from you, our users, we've made some improvements that make it easier than ever to read thousands of publications on our website.

Do you want to take a quick tour of the OpenBook's features?

Show this book's table of contents , where you can jump to any chapter by name.

...or use these buttons to go back to the previous chapter or skip to the next one.

Jump up to the previous page or down to the next one. Also, you can type in a page number and press Enter to go directly to that page in the book.

To search the entire text of this book, type in your search term here and press Enter .

Share a link to this book page on your preferred social network or via email.

View our suggested citation for this chapter.

Ready to take your reading offline? Click here to buy this book in print or download it as a free PDF, if available.

Get Email Updates

Do you enjoy reading reports from the Academies online for free ? Sign up for email notifications and we'll let you know about new publications in your areas of interest when they're released.

Data Analysis Techniques in Research – Methods, Tools & Examples

Varun Saharawat is a seasoned professional in the fields of SEO and content writing. With a profound knowledge of the intricate aspects of these disciplines, Varun has established himself as a valuable asset in the world of digital marketing and online content creation.

Data analysis techniques in research are essential because they allow researchers to derive meaningful insights from data sets to support their hypotheses or research objectives.

Data Analysis Techniques in Research : While various groups, institutions, and professionals may have diverse approaches to data analysis, a universal definition captures its essence. Data analysis involves refining, transforming, and interpreting raw data to derive actionable insights that guide informed decision-making for businesses.

A straightforward illustration of data analysis emerges when we make everyday decisions, basing our choices on past experiences or predictions of potential outcomes.

If you want to learn more about this topic and acquire valuable skills that will set you apart in today’s data-driven world, we highly recommend enrolling in the Data Analytics Course by Physics Wallah . And as a special offer for our readers, use the coupon code “READER” to get a discount on this course.

Table of Contents

What is Data Analysis?

Data analysis is the systematic process of inspecting, cleaning, transforming, and interpreting data with the objective of discovering valuable insights and drawing meaningful conclusions. This process involves several steps:

• Inspecting : Initial examination of data to understand its structure, quality, and completeness.
• Cleaning : Removing errors, inconsistencies, or irrelevant information to ensure accurate analysis.
• Transforming : Converting data into a format suitable for analysis, such as normalization or aggregation.
• Interpreting : Analyzing the transformed data to identify patterns, trends, and relationships.

Types of Data Analysis Techniques in Research

Data analysis techniques in research are categorized into qualitative and quantitative methods, each with its specific approaches and tools. These techniques are instrumental in extracting meaningful insights, patterns, and relationships from data to support informed decision-making, validate hypotheses, and derive actionable recommendations. Below is an in-depth exploration of the various types of data analysis techniques commonly employed in research:

1) Qualitative Analysis:

Definition: Qualitative analysis focuses on understanding non-numerical data, such as opinions, concepts, or experiences, to derive insights into human behavior, attitudes, and perceptions.

• Content Analysis: Examines textual data, such as interview transcripts, articles, or open-ended survey responses, to identify themes, patterns, or trends.
• Narrative Analysis: Analyzes personal stories or narratives to understand individuals’ experiences, emotions, or perspectives.
• Ethnographic Studies: Involves observing and analyzing cultural practices, behaviors, and norms within specific communities or settings.

2) Quantitative Analysis:

Quantitative analysis emphasizes numerical data and employs statistical methods to explore relationships, patterns, and trends. It encompasses several approaches:

Descriptive Analysis:

• Frequency Distribution: Represents the number of occurrences of distinct values within a dataset.
• Central Tendency: Measures such as mean, median, and mode provide insights into the central values of a dataset.
• Dispersion: Techniques like variance and standard deviation indicate the spread or variability of data.

Diagnostic Analysis:

• Regression Analysis: Assesses the relationship between dependent and independent variables, enabling prediction or understanding causality.
• ANOVA (Analysis of Variance): Examines differences between groups to identify significant variations or effects.

Predictive Analysis:

• Time Series Forecasting: Uses historical data points to predict future trends or outcomes.
• Machine Learning Algorithms: Techniques like decision trees, random forests, and neural networks predict outcomes based on patterns in data.

Prescriptive Analysis:

• Optimization Models: Utilizes linear programming, integer programming, or other optimization techniques to identify the best solutions or strategies.
• Simulation: Mimics real-world scenarios to evaluate various strategies or decisions and determine optimal outcomes.

Specific Techniques:

• Monte Carlo Simulation: Models probabilistic outcomes to assess risk and uncertainty.
• Factor Analysis: Reduces the dimensionality of data by identifying underlying factors or components.
• Cohort Analysis: Studies specific groups or cohorts over time to understand trends, behaviors, or patterns within these groups.
• Cluster Analysis: Classifies objects or individuals into homogeneous groups or clusters based on similarities or attributes.
• Sentiment Analysis: Uses natural language processing and machine learning techniques to determine sentiment, emotions, or opinions from textual data.

Also Read: AI and Predictive Analytics: Examples, Tools, Uses, Ai Vs Predictive Analytics

Data Analysis Techniques in Research Examples

To provide a clearer understanding of how data analysis techniques are applied in research, let’s consider a hypothetical research study focused on evaluating the impact of online learning platforms on students’ academic performance.

Research Objective:

Determine if students using online learning platforms achieve higher academic performance compared to those relying solely on traditional classroom instruction.

Data Collection:

• Quantitative Data: Academic scores (grades) of students using online platforms and those using traditional classroom methods.
• Qualitative Data: Feedback from students regarding their learning experiences, challenges faced, and preferences.

Data Analysis Techniques Applied:

1) Descriptive Analysis:

• Calculate the mean, median, and mode of academic scores for both groups.
• Create frequency distributions to represent the distribution of grades in each group.

2) Diagnostic Analysis:

• Conduct an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) to determine if there’s a statistically significant difference in academic scores between the two groups.
• Perform Regression Analysis to assess the relationship between the time spent on online platforms and academic performance.

3) Predictive Analysis:

• Utilize Time Series Forecasting to predict future academic performance trends based on historical data.
• Implement Machine Learning algorithms to develop a predictive model that identifies factors contributing to academic success on online platforms.

4) Prescriptive Analysis:

• Apply Optimization Models to identify the optimal combination of online learning resources (e.g., video lectures, interactive quizzes) that maximize academic performance.
• Use Simulation Techniques to evaluate different scenarios, such as varying student engagement levels with online resources, to determine the most effective strategies for improving learning outcomes.

5) Specific Techniques:

• Conduct Factor Analysis on qualitative feedback to identify common themes or factors influencing students’ perceptions and experiences with online learning.
• Perform Cluster Analysis to segment students based on their engagement levels, preferences, or academic outcomes, enabling targeted interventions or personalized learning strategies.
• Apply Sentiment Analysis on textual feedback to categorize students’ sentiments as positive, negative, or neutral regarding online learning experiences.

By applying a combination of qualitative and quantitative data analysis techniques, this research example aims to provide comprehensive insights into the effectiveness of online learning platforms.

Also Read: Learning Path to Become a Data Analyst in 2024

Data Analysis Techniques in Quantitative Research

Quantitative research involves collecting numerical data to examine relationships, test hypotheses, and make predictions. Various data analysis techniques are employed to interpret and draw conclusions from quantitative data. Here are some key data analysis techniques commonly used in quantitative research:

1) Descriptive Statistics:

• Description: Descriptive statistics are used to summarize and describe the main aspects of a dataset, such as central tendency (mean, median, mode), variability (range, variance, standard deviation), and distribution (skewness, kurtosis).
• Applications: Summarizing data, identifying patterns, and providing initial insights into the dataset.

2) Inferential Statistics:

• Description: Inferential statistics involve making predictions or inferences about a population based on a sample of data. This technique includes hypothesis testing, confidence intervals, t-tests, chi-square tests, analysis of variance (ANOVA), regression analysis, and correlation analysis.
• Applications: Testing hypotheses, making predictions, and generalizing findings from a sample to a larger population.

3) Regression Analysis:

• Description: Regression analysis is a statistical technique used to model and examine the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. Linear regression, multiple regression, logistic regression, and nonlinear regression are common types of regression analysis .
• Applications: Predicting outcomes, identifying relationships between variables, and understanding the impact of independent variables on the dependent variable.

4) Correlation Analysis:

• Description: Correlation analysis is used to measure and assess the strength and direction of the relationship between two or more variables. The Pearson correlation coefficient, Spearman rank correlation coefficient, and Kendall’s tau are commonly used measures of correlation.
• Applications: Identifying associations between variables and assessing the degree and nature of the relationship.

5) Factor Analysis:

• Description: Factor analysis is a multivariate statistical technique used to identify and analyze underlying relationships or factors among a set of observed variables. It helps in reducing the dimensionality of data and identifying latent variables or constructs.
• Applications: Identifying underlying factors or constructs, simplifying data structures, and understanding the underlying relationships among variables.

6) Time Series Analysis:

• Description: Time series analysis involves analyzing data collected or recorded over a specific period at regular intervals to identify patterns, trends, and seasonality. Techniques such as moving averages, exponential smoothing, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), and Fourier analysis are used.
• Applications: Forecasting future trends, analyzing seasonal patterns, and understanding time-dependent relationships in data.

7) ANOVA (Analysis of Variance):

• Description: Analysis of variance (ANOVA) is a statistical technique used to analyze and compare the means of two or more groups or treatments to determine if they are statistically different from each other. One-way ANOVA, two-way ANOVA, and MANOVA (Multivariate Analysis of Variance) are common types of ANOVA.
• Applications: Comparing group means, testing hypotheses, and determining the effects of categorical independent variables on a continuous dependent variable.

8) Chi-Square Tests:

• Description: Chi-square tests are non-parametric statistical tests used to assess the association between categorical variables in a contingency table. The Chi-square test of independence, goodness-of-fit test, and test of homogeneity are common chi-square tests.
• Applications: Testing relationships between categorical variables, assessing goodness-of-fit, and evaluating independence.

These quantitative data analysis techniques provide researchers with valuable tools and methods to analyze, interpret, and derive meaningful insights from numerical data. The selection of a specific technique often depends on the research objectives, the nature of the data, and the underlying assumptions of the statistical methods being used.

Also Read: Analysis vs. Analytics: How Are They Different?

Data Analysis Methods

Data analysis methods refer to the techniques and procedures used to analyze, interpret, and draw conclusions from data. These methods are essential for transforming raw data into meaningful insights, facilitating decision-making processes, and driving strategies across various fields. Here are some common data analysis methods:

• Description: Descriptive statistics summarize and organize data to provide a clear and concise overview of the dataset. Measures such as mean, median, mode, range, variance, and standard deviation are commonly used.
• Description: Inferential statistics involve making predictions or inferences about a population based on a sample of data. Techniques such as hypothesis testing, confidence intervals, and regression analysis are used.

3) Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA):

• Description: EDA techniques involve visually exploring and analyzing data to discover patterns, relationships, anomalies, and insights. Methods such as scatter plots, histograms, box plots, and correlation matrices are utilized.
• Applications: Identifying trends, patterns, outliers, and relationships within the dataset.

4) Predictive Analytics:

• Description: Predictive analytics use statistical algorithms and machine learning techniques to analyze historical data and make predictions about future events or outcomes. Techniques such as regression analysis, time series forecasting, and machine learning algorithms (e.g., decision trees, random forests, neural networks) are employed.
• Applications: Forecasting future trends, predicting outcomes, and identifying potential risks or opportunities.

5) Prescriptive Analytics:

• Description: Prescriptive analytics involve analyzing data to recommend actions or strategies that optimize specific objectives or outcomes. Optimization techniques, simulation models, and decision-making algorithms are utilized.
• Applications: Recommending optimal strategies, decision-making support, and resource allocation.

6) Qualitative Data Analysis:

• Description: Qualitative data analysis involves analyzing non-numerical data, such as text, images, videos, or audio, to identify themes, patterns, and insights. Methods such as content analysis, thematic analysis, and narrative analysis are used.
• Applications: Understanding human behavior, attitudes, perceptions, and experiences.

7) Big Data Analytics:

• Description: Big data analytics methods are designed to analyze large volumes of structured and unstructured data to extract valuable insights. Technologies such as Hadoop, Spark, and NoSQL databases are used to process and analyze big data.
• Applications: Analyzing large datasets, identifying trends, patterns, and insights from big data sources.

8) Text Analytics:

• Description: Text analytics methods involve analyzing textual data, such as customer reviews, social media posts, emails, and documents, to extract meaningful information and insights. Techniques such as sentiment analysis, text mining, and natural language processing (NLP) are used.
• Applications: Analyzing customer feedback, monitoring brand reputation, and extracting insights from textual data sources.

These data analysis methods are instrumental in transforming data into actionable insights, informing decision-making processes, and driving organizational success across various sectors, including business, healthcare, finance, marketing, and research. The selection of a specific method often depends on the nature of the data, the research objectives, and the analytical requirements of the project or organization.

Also Read: Quantitative Data Analysis: Types, Analysis & Examples

Data Analysis Tools

Data analysis tools are essential instruments that facilitate the process of examining, cleaning, transforming, and modeling data to uncover useful information, make informed decisions, and drive strategies. Here are some prominent data analysis tools widely used across various industries:

1) Microsoft Excel:

• Description: A spreadsheet software that offers basic to advanced data analysis features, including pivot tables, data visualization tools, and statistical functions.
• Applications: Data cleaning, basic statistical analysis, visualization, and reporting.

2) R Programming Language:

• Description: An open-source programming language specifically designed for statistical computing and data visualization.
• Applications: Advanced statistical analysis, data manipulation, visualization, and machine learning.

3) Python (with Libraries like Pandas, NumPy, Matplotlib, and Seaborn):

• Description: A versatile programming language with libraries that support data manipulation, analysis, and visualization.
• Applications: Data cleaning, statistical analysis, machine learning, and data visualization.

4) SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences):

• Description: A comprehensive statistical software suite used for data analysis, data mining, and predictive analytics.
• Applications: Descriptive statistics, hypothesis testing, regression analysis, and advanced analytics.

5) SAS (Statistical Analysis System):

• Description: A software suite used for advanced analytics, multivariate analysis, and predictive modeling.
• Applications: Data management, statistical analysis, predictive modeling, and business intelligence.

6) Tableau:

• Description: A data visualization tool that allows users to create interactive and shareable dashboards and reports.
• Applications: Data visualization , business intelligence , and interactive dashboard creation.

7) Power BI:

• Description: A business analytics tool developed by Microsoft that provides interactive visualizations and business intelligence capabilities.
• Applications: Data visualization, business intelligence, reporting, and dashboard creation.

8) SQL (Structured Query Language) Databases (e.g., MySQL, PostgreSQL, Microsoft SQL Server):

• Description: Database management systems that support data storage, retrieval, and manipulation using SQL queries.
• Applications: Data retrieval, data cleaning, data transformation, and database management.

9) Apache Spark:

• Description: A fast and general-purpose distributed computing system designed for big data processing and analytics.
• Applications: Big data processing, machine learning, data streaming, and real-time analytics.

10) IBM SPSS Modeler:

• Description: A data mining software application used for building predictive models and conducting advanced analytics.
• Applications: Predictive modeling, data mining, statistical analysis, and decision optimization.

These tools serve various purposes and cater to different data analysis needs, from basic statistical analysis and data visualization to advanced analytics, machine learning, and big data processing. The choice of a specific tool often depends on the nature of the data, the complexity of the analysis, and the specific requirements of the project or organization.

Also Read: How to Analyze Survey Data: Methods & Examples

Importance of Data Analysis in Research

The importance of data analysis in research cannot be overstated; it serves as the backbone of any scientific investigation or study. Here are several key reasons why data analysis is crucial in the research process:

• Data analysis helps ensure that the results obtained are valid and reliable. By systematically examining the data, researchers can identify any inconsistencies or anomalies that may affect the credibility of the findings.
• Effective data analysis provides researchers with the necessary information to make informed decisions. By interpreting the collected data, researchers can draw conclusions, make predictions, or formulate recommendations based on evidence rather than intuition or guesswork.
• Data analysis allows researchers to identify patterns, trends, and relationships within the data. This can lead to a deeper understanding of the research topic, enabling researchers to uncover insights that may not be immediately apparent.
• In empirical research, data analysis plays a critical role in testing hypotheses. Researchers collect data to either support or refute their hypotheses, and data analysis provides the tools and techniques to evaluate these hypotheses rigorously.
• Transparent and well-executed data analysis enhances the credibility of research findings. By clearly documenting the data analysis methods and procedures, researchers allow others to replicate the study, thereby contributing to the reproducibility of research findings.
• In fields such as business or healthcare, data analysis helps organizations allocate resources more efficiently. By analyzing data on consumer behavior, market trends, or patient outcomes, organizations can make strategic decisions about resource allocation, budgeting, and planning.
• In public policy and social sciences, data analysis is instrumental in developing and evaluating policies and interventions. By analyzing data on social, economic, or environmental factors, policymakers can assess the effectiveness of existing policies and inform the development of new ones.
• Data analysis allows for continuous improvement in research methods and practices. By analyzing past research projects, identifying areas for improvement, and implementing changes based on data-driven insights, researchers can refine their approaches and enhance the quality of future research endeavors.

However, it is important to remember that mastering these techniques requires practice and continuous learning. That’s why we highly recommend the Data Analytics Course by Physics Wallah . Not only does it cover all the fundamentals of data analysis, but it also provides hands-on experience with various tools such as Excel, Python, and Tableau. Plus, if you use the “ READER ” coupon code at checkout, you can get a special discount on the course.

For Latest Tech Related Information, Join Our Official Free Telegram Group : PW Skills Telegram Group

Data Analysis Techniques in Research FAQs

What are the 5 techniques for data analysis.

The five techniques for data analysis include: Descriptive Analysis Diagnostic Analysis Predictive Analysis Prescriptive Analysis Qualitative Analysis

What are techniques of data analysis in research?

Techniques of data analysis in research encompass both qualitative and quantitative methods. These techniques involve processes like summarizing raw data, investigating causes of events, forecasting future outcomes, offering recommendations based on predictions, and examining non-numerical data to understand concepts or experiences.

What are the 3 methods of data analysis?

The three primary methods of data analysis are: Qualitative Analysis Quantitative Analysis Mixed-Methods Analysis

What are the four types of data analysis techniques?

The four types of data analysis techniques are: Descriptive Analysis Diagnostic Analysis Predictive Analysis Prescriptive Analysis

• 10 Best Companies For Data Analysis Internships 2024

This article will help you provide the top 10 best companies for a Data Analysis Internship which will not only…

• What Is Business Analytics Business Intelligence?

Want to learn what Business analytics business intelligence is? Reading this article will help you to understand all topics clearly,…

• Which Course is Best for a Data Analyst?

Looking to build your career as a Data Analyst but Don’t know how to start and where to start from?…

Related Articles

• Full Form Of OLAP
• Which Course is Best for Business Analyst? (Business Analysts Online Courses)
• Best Courses For Data Analytics: Top 10 Courses For Your Career in Trend
• Why is Data Analytics Skills Important?
• What is Data Analytics in Database?
• Finance Data Analysis: What is a Financial Data Analysis?
• What are Data Analysis Tools?

Purdue Online Writing Lab Purdue OWL® College of Liberal Arts

Welcome to the Purdue OWL

This page is brought to you by the OWL at Purdue University. When printing this page, you must include the entire legal notice.

Copyright ©1995-2018 by The Writing Lab & The OWL at Purdue and Purdue University. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, reproduced, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without permission. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our terms and conditions of fair use.

Analysis is a type of primary research that involves finding and interpreting patterns in data, classifying those patterns, and generalizing the results. It is useful when looking at actions, events, or occurrences in different texts, media, or publications. Analysis can usually be done without considering most of the ethical issues discussed in the overview, as you are not working with people but rather publicly accessible documents. Analysis can be done on new documents or performed on raw data that you yourself have collected.

Here are several examples of analysis:

• Recording commercials on three major television networks and analyzing race and gender within the commercials to discover some conclusion.
• Analyzing the historical trends in public laws by looking at the records at a local courthouse.
• Analyzing topics of discussion in chat rooms for patterns based on gender and age.

Analysis research involves several steps:

• Finding and collecting documents.
• Specifying criteria or patterns that you are looking for.
• Analyzing documents for patterns, noting number of occurrences or other factors.

Narrative Analysis 101

Everything you need to know to get started

By: Ethar Al-Saraf (PhD)| Expert Reviewed By: Eunice Rautenbach (DTech) | March 2023

If you’re new to research, the host of qualitative analysis methods available to you can be a little overwhelming. In this post, we’ll  unpack the sometimes slippery topic of narrative analysis . We’ll explain what it is, consider its strengths and weaknesses , and look at when and when not to use this analysis method. 

Overview: Narrative Analysis

• What is narrative analysis (simple definition)
• The two overarching approaches  
• The strengths & weaknesses of narrative analysis
• When (and when not) to use it
• Key takeaways

What Is Narrative Analysis?

Simply put, narrative analysis is a qualitative analysis method focused on interpreting human experiences and motivations by looking closely at the stories (the narratives) people tell in a particular context.

In other words, a narrative analysis interprets long-form participant responses or written stories as data, to uncover themes and meanings . That data could be taken from interviews, monologues, written stories, or even recordings. In other words, narrative analysis can be used on both primary and secondary data to provide evidence from the experiences described.

That’s all quite conceptual, so let’s look at an example of how narrative analysis could be used.

Let’s say you’re interested in researching the beliefs of a particular author on popular culture. In that case, you might identify the characters , plotlines , symbols and motifs used in their stories. You could then use narrative analysis to analyse these in combination and against the backdrop of the relevant context.

This would allow you to interpret the underlying meanings and implications in their writing, and what they reveal about the beliefs of the author. In other words, you’d look to understand the views of the author by analysing the narratives that run through their work.

The Two Overarching Approaches

Generally speaking, there are two approaches that one can take to narrative analysis. Specifically, an inductive approach or a deductive approach. Each one will have a meaningful impact on how you interpret your data and the conclusions you can draw, so it’s important that you understand the difference.

First up is the inductive approach to narrative analysis.

The inductive approach takes a bottom-up view , allowing the data to speak for itself, without the influence of any preconceived notions . With this approach, you begin by looking at the data and deriving patterns and themes that can be used to explain the story, as opposed to viewing the data through the lens of pre-existing hypotheses, theories or frameworks. In other words, the analysis is led by the data.

For example, with an inductive approach, you might notice patterns or themes in the way an author presents their characters or develops their plot. You’d then observe these patterns, develop an interpretation of what they might reveal in the context of the story, and draw conclusions relative to the aims of your research.

Contrasted to this is the deductive approach.

With the deductive approach to narrative analysis, you begin by using existing theories that a narrative can be tested against . Here, the analysis adopts particular theoretical assumptions and/or provides hypotheses, and then looks for evidence in a story that will either verify or disprove them.

For example, your analysis might begin with a theory that wealthy authors only tell stories to get the sympathy of their readers. A deductive analysis might then look at the narratives of wealthy authors for evidence that will substantiate (or refute) the theory and then draw conclusions about its accuracy, and suggest explanations for why that might or might not be the case.

Which approach you should take depends on your research aims, objectives and research questions . If these are more exploratory in nature, you’ll likely take an inductive approach. Conversely, if they are more confirmatory in nature, you’ll likely opt for the deductive approach.

Need a helping hand?

Strengths & Weaknesses

Now that we have a clearer view of what narrative analysis is and the two approaches to it, it’s important to understand its strengths and weaknesses , so that you can make the right choices in your research project.

A primary strength of narrative analysis is the rich insight it can generate by uncovering the underlying meanings and interpretations of human experience. The focus on an individual narrative highlights the nuances and complexities of their experience, revealing details that might be missed or considered insignificant by other methods.

Another strength of narrative analysis is the range of topics it can be used for. The focus on human experience means that a narrative analysis can democratise your data analysis, by revealing the value of individuals’ own interpretation of their experience in contrast to broader social, cultural, and political factors.

All that said, just like all analysis methods, narrative analysis has its weaknesses. It’s important to understand these so that you can choose the most appropriate method for your particular research project.

The first drawback of narrative analysis is the problem of subjectivity and interpretation . In other words, a drawback of the focus on stories and their details is that they’re open to being understood differently depending on who’s reading them. This means that a strong understanding of the author’s cultural context is crucial to developing your interpretation of the data. At the same time, it’s important that you remain open-minded in how you interpret your chosen narrative and avoid making any assumptions .

A second weakness of narrative analysis is the issue of reliability and generalisation . Since narrative analysis depends almost entirely on a subjective narrative and your interpretation, the findings and conclusions can’t usually be generalised or empirically verified. Although some conclusions can be drawn about the cultural context, they’re still based on what will almost always be anecdotal data and not suitable for the basis of a theory, for example.

Last but not least, the focus on long-form data expressed as stories means that narrative analysis can be very time-consuming . In addition to the source data itself, you will have to be well informed on the author’s cultural context as well as other interpretations of the narrative, where possible, to ensure you have a holistic view. So, if you’re going to undertake narrative analysis, make sure that you allocate a generous amount of time to work through the data.

When To Use Narrative Analysis

As a qualitative method focused on analysing and interpreting narratives describing human experiences, narrative analysis is usually most appropriate for research topics focused on social, personal, cultural , or even ideological events or phenomena and how they’re understood at an individual level.

For example, if you were interested in understanding the experiences and beliefs of individuals suffering social marginalisation, you could use narrative analysis to look at the narratives and stories told by people in marginalised groups to identify patterns , symbols , or motifs that shed light on how they rationalise their experiences.

In this example, narrative analysis presents a good natural fit as it’s focused on analysing people’s stories to understand their views and beliefs at an individual level. Conversely, if your research was geared towards understanding broader themes and patterns regarding an event or phenomena, analysis methods such as content analysis or thematic analysis may be better suited, depending on your research aim .

Let’s recap

In this post, we’ve explored the basics of narrative analysis in qualitative research. The key takeaways are:

• Narrative analysis is a qualitative analysis method focused on interpreting human experience in the form of stories or narratives .
• There are two overarching approaches to narrative analysis: the inductive (exploratory) approach and the deductive (confirmatory) approach.
• Like all analysis methods, narrative analysis has a particular set of strengths and weaknesses .
• Narrative analysis is generally most appropriate for research focused on interpreting individual, human experiences as expressed in detailed , long-form accounts.

If you’d like to learn more about narrative analysis and qualitative analysis methods in general, be sure to check out the rest of the Grad Coach blog here . Alternatively, if you’re looking for hands-on help with your project, take a look at our 1-on-1 private coaching service .

Psst... there’s more!

This post was based on one of our popular Research Bootcamps . If you're working on a research project, you'll definitely want to check this out ...

You Might Also Like:

Thanks. I need examples of narrative analysis

Here are some examples of research topics that could utilise narrative analysis:

Personal Narratives of Trauma: Analysing personal stories of individuals who have experienced trauma to understand the impact, coping mechanisms, and healing processes.

Identity Formation in Immigrant Communities: Examining the narratives of immigrants to explore how they construct and negotiate their identities in a new cultural context.

Media Representations of Gender: Analysing narratives in media texts (such as films, television shows, or advertisements) to investigate the portrayal of gender roles, stereotypes, and power dynamics.

Where can I find an example of a narrative analysis table ?

Please i need help with my project,

how can I cite this article in APA 7th style?

please mention the sources as well.

My research is mixed approach. I use interview,key_inforamt interview,FGD and document.so,which qualitative analysis is appropriate to analyze these data.Thanks

Which qualitative analysis methode is appropriate to analyze data obtain from intetview,key informant intetview,Focus group discussion and document.

I’ve finished my PhD. Now I need a “platform” that will help me objectively ascertain the tacit assumptions that are buried within a narrative. Can you help?

Submit a Comment Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment.

• Print Friendly

• Skip to main content
• Skip to primary sidebar
• Skip to footer
• QuestionPro

• Solutions Industries Gaming Automotive Sports and events Education Government Travel & Hospitality Financial Services Healthcare Cannabis Technology Use Case NPS+ Communities Audience Contactless surveys Mobile LivePolls Member Experience GDPR Positive People Science 360 Feedback Surveys
• Resources Blog eBooks Survey Templates Case Studies Training Help center

Home Market Research

Qualitative Data Analysis: What is it, Methods + Examples

In a world rich with information and narrative, understanding the deeper layers of human experiences requires a unique vision that goes beyond numbers and figures. This is where the power of qualitative data analysis comes to light.

In this blog, we’ll learn about qualitative data analysis, explore its methods, and provide real-life examples showcasing its power in uncovering insights.

What is Qualitative Data Analysis?

Qualitative data analysis is a systematic process of examining non-numerical data to extract meaning, patterns, and insights.

In contrast to quantitative analysis, which focuses on numbers and statistical metrics, the qualitative study focuses on the qualitative aspects of data, such as text, images, audio, and videos. It seeks to understand every aspect of human experiences, perceptions, and behaviors by examining the data’s richness.

Companies frequently conduct this analysis on customer feedback. You can collect qualitative data from reviews, complaints, chat messages, interactions with support centers, customer interviews, case notes, or even social media comments. This kind of data holds the key to understanding customer sentiments and preferences in a way that goes beyond mere numbers.

Importance of Qualitative Data Analysis

Qualitative data analysis plays a crucial role in your research and decision-making process across various disciplines. Let’s explore some key reasons that underline the significance of this analysis:

In-Depth Understanding

It enables you to explore complex and nuanced aspects of a phenomenon, delving into the ‘how’ and ‘why’ questions. This method provides you with a deeper understanding of human behavior, experiences, and contexts that quantitative approaches might not capture fully.

Contextual Insight

You can use this analysis to give context to numerical data. It will help you understand the circumstances and conditions that influence participants’ thoughts, feelings, and actions. This contextual insight becomes essential for generating comprehensive explanations.

Theory Development

You can generate or refine hypotheses via qualitative data analysis. As you analyze the data attentively, you can form hypotheses, concepts, and frameworks that will drive your future research and contribute to theoretical advances.

Participant Perspectives

When performing qualitative research, you can highlight participant voices and opinions. This approach is especially useful for understanding marginalized or underrepresented people, as it allows them to communicate their experiences and points of view.

Exploratory Research

The analysis is frequently used at the exploratory stage of your project. It assists you in identifying important variables, developing research questions, and designing quantitative studies that will follow.

Types of Qualitative Data

When conducting qualitative research, you can use several qualitative data collection methods , and here you will come across many sorts of qualitative data that can provide you with unique insights into your study topic. These data kinds add new views and angles to your understanding and analysis.

Interviews and Focus Groups

Interviews and focus groups will be among your key methods for gathering qualitative data. Interviews are one-on-one talks in which participants can freely share their thoughts, experiences, and opinions.

Focus groups, on the other hand, are discussions in which members interact with one another, resulting in dynamic exchanges of ideas. Both methods provide rich qualitative data and direct access to participant perspectives.

Observations and Field Notes

Observations and field notes are another useful sort of qualitative data. You can immerse yourself in the research environment through direct observation, carefully documenting behaviors, interactions, and contextual factors.

These observations will be recorded in your field notes, providing a complete picture of the environment and the behaviors you’re researching. This data type is especially important for comprehending behavior in their natural setting.

Textual and Visual Data

Textual and visual data include a wide range of resources that can be qualitatively analyzed. Documents, written narratives, and transcripts from various sources, such as interviews or speeches, are examples of textual data.

Photographs, films, and even artwork provide a visual layer to your research. These forms of data allow you to investigate what is spoken and the underlying emotions, details, and symbols expressed by language or pictures.

When to Choose Qualitative Data Analysis over Quantitative Data Analysis

As you begin your research journey, understanding why the analysis of qualitative data is important will guide your approach to understanding complex events. If you analyze qualitative data, it will provide new insights that complement quantitative methodologies, which will give you a broader understanding of your study topic.

It is critical to know when to use qualitative analysis over quantitative procedures. You can prefer qualitative data analysis when:

• Complexity Reigns: When your research questions involve deep human experiences, motivations, or emotions, qualitative research excels at revealing these complexities.
• Exploration is Key: Qualitative analysis is ideal for exploratory research. It will assist you in understanding a new or poorly understood topic before formulating quantitative hypotheses.
• Context Matters: If you want to understand how context affects behaviors or results, qualitative data analysis provides the depth needed to grasp these relationships.
• Unanticipated Findings: When your study provides surprising new viewpoints or ideas, qualitative analysis helps you to delve deeply into these emerging themes.
• Subjective Interpretation is Vital: When it comes to understanding people’s subjective experiences and interpretations, qualitative data analysis is the way to go.

You can make informed decisions regarding the right approach for your research objectives if you understand the importance of qualitative analysis and recognize the situations where it shines.

Qualitative Data Analysis Methods and Examples

Exploring various qualitative data analysis methods will provide you with a wide collection for making sense of your research findings. Once the data has been collected, you can choose from several analysis methods based on your research objectives and the data type you’ve collected.

There are five main methods for analyzing qualitative data. Each method takes a distinct approach to identifying patterns, themes, and insights within your qualitative data. They are:

Method 1: Content Analysis

Content analysis is a methodical technique for analyzing textual or visual data in a structured manner. In this method, you will categorize qualitative data by splitting it into manageable pieces and assigning the manual coding process to these units.

As you go, you’ll notice ongoing codes and designs that will allow you to conclude the content. This method is very beneficial for detecting common ideas, concepts, or themes in your data without losing the context.

Steps to Do Content Analysis

Follow these steps when conducting content analysis:

• Collect and Immerse: Begin by collecting the necessary textual or visual data. Immerse yourself in this data to fully understand its content, context, and complexities.
• Assign Codes and Categories: Assign codes to relevant data sections that systematically represent major ideas or themes. Arrange comparable codes into groups that cover the major themes.
• Analyze and Interpret: Develop a structured framework from the categories and codes. Then, evaluate the data in the context of your research question, investigate relationships between categories, discover patterns, and draw meaning from these connections.

Benefits & Challenges

There are various advantages to using content analysis:

• Structured Approach: It offers a systematic approach to dealing with large data sets and ensures consistency throughout the research.
• Objective Insights: This method promotes objectivity, which helps to reduce potential biases in your study.
• Pattern Discovery: Content analysis can help uncover hidden trends, themes, and patterns that are not always obvious.
• Versatility: You can apply content analysis to various data formats, including text, internet content, images, etc.

However, keep in mind the challenges that arise:

• Subjectivity: Even with the best attempts, a certain bias may remain in coding and interpretation.
• Complexity: Analyzing huge data sets requires time and great attention to detail.
• Contextual Nuances: Content analysis may not capture all of the contextual richness that qualitative data analysis highlights.

Example of Content Analysis

Suppose you’re conducting market research and looking at customer feedback on a product. As you collect relevant data and analyze feedback, you’ll see repeating codes like “price,” “quality,” “customer service,” and “features.” These codes are organized into categories such as “positive reviews,” “negative reviews,” and “suggestions for improvement.”

According to your findings, themes such as “price” and “customer service” stand out and show that pricing and customer service greatly impact customer satisfaction. This example highlights the power of content analysis for obtaining significant insights from large textual data collections.

Method 2: Thematic Analysis

Thematic analysis is a well-structured procedure for identifying and analyzing recurring themes in your data. As you become more engaged in the data, you’ll generate codes or short labels representing key concepts. These codes are then organized into themes, providing a consistent framework for organizing and comprehending the substance of the data.

The analysis allows you to organize complex narratives and perspectives into meaningful categories, which will allow you to identify connections and patterns that may not be visible at first.

Steps to Do Thematic Analysis

Follow these steps when conducting a thematic analysis:

• Code and Group: Start by thoroughly examining the data and giving initial codes that identify the segments. To create initial themes, combine relevant codes.
• Code and Group: Begin by engaging yourself in the data, assigning first codes to notable segments. To construct basic themes, group comparable codes together.
• Analyze and Report: Analyze the data within each theme to derive relevant insights. Organize the topics into a consistent structure and explain your findings, along with data extracts that represent each theme.

Thematic analysis has various benefits:

• Structured Exploration: It is a method for identifying patterns and themes in complex qualitative data.
• Comprehensive knowledge: Thematic analysis promotes an in-depth understanding of the complications and meanings of the data.
• Application Flexibility: This method can be customized to various research situations and data kinds.

However, challenges may arise, such as:

• Interpretive Nature: Interpreting qualitative data in thematic analysis is vital, and it is critical to manage researcher bias.
• Time-consuming: The study can be time-consuming, especially with large data sets.
• Subjectivity: The selection of codes and topics might be subjective.

Example of Thematic Analysis

Assume you’re conducting a thematic analysis on job satisfaction interviews. Following your immersion in the data, you assign initial codes such as “work-life balance,” “career growth,” and “colleague relationships.” As you organize these codes, you’ll notice themes develop, such as “Factors Influencing Job Satisfaction” and “Impact on Work Engagement.”

Further investigation reveals the tales and experiences included within these themes and provides insights into how various elements influence job satisfaction. This example demonstrates how thematic analysis can reveal meaningful patterns and insights in qualitative data.

Method 3: Narrative Analysis

The narrative analysis involves the narratives that people share. You’ll investigate the histories in your data, looking at how stories are created and the meanings they express. This method is excellent for learning how people make sense of their experiences through narrative.

Steps to Do Narrative Analysis

The following steps are involved in narrative analysis:

• Gather and Analyze: Start by collecting narratives, such as first-person tales, interviews, or written accounts. Analyze the stories, focusing on the plot, feelings, and characters.
• Find Themes: Look for recurring themes or patterns in various narratives. Think about the similarities and differences between these topics and personal experiences.
• Interpret and Extract Insights: Contextualize the narratives within their larger context. Accept the subjective nature of each narrative and analyze the narrator’s voice and style. Extract insights from the tales by diving into the emotions, motivations, and implications communicated by the stories.

There are various advantages to narrative analysis:

• Deep Exploration: It lets you look deeply into people’s personal experiences and perspectives.
• Human-Centered: This method prioritizes the human perspective, allowing individuals to express themselves.

However, difficulties may arise, such as:

• Interpretive Complexity: Analyzing narratives requires dealing with the complexities of meaning and interpretation.
• Time-consuming: Because of the richness and complexities of tales, working with them can be time-consuming.

Example of Narrative Analysis

Assume you’re conducting narrative analysis on refugee interviews. As you read the stories, you’ll notice common themes of toughness, loss, and hope. The narratives provide insight into the obstacles that refugees face, their strengths, and the dreams that guide them.

The analysis can provide a deeper insight into the refugees’ experiences and the broader social context they navigate by examining the narratives’ emotional subtleties and underlying meanings. This example highlights how narrative analysis can reveal important insights into human stories.

Method 4: Grounded Theory Analysis

Grounded theory analysis is an iterative and systematic approach that allows you to create theories directly from data without being limited by pre-existing hypotheses. With an open mind, you collect data and generate early codes and labels that capture essential ideas or concepts within the data.

As you progress, you refine these codes and increasingly connect them, eventually developing a theory based on the data. Grounded theory analysis is a dynamic process for developing new insights and hypotheses based on details in your data.

Steps to Do Grounded Theory Analysis

Grounded theory analysis requires the following steps:

• Initial Coding: First, immerse yourself in the data, producing initial codes that represent major concepts or patterns.
• Categorize and Connect: Using axial coding, organize the initial codes, which establish relationships and connections between topics.
• Build the Theory: Focus on creating a core category that connects the codes and themes. Regularly refine the theory by comparing and integrating new data, ensuring that it evolves organically from the data.

Grounded theory analysis has various benefits:

• Theory Generation: It provides a one-of-a-kind opportunity to generate hypotheses straight from data and promotes new insights.
• In-depth Understanding: The analysis allows you to deeply analyze the data and reveal complex relationships and patterns.
• Flexible Process: This method is customizable and ongoing, which allows you to enhance your research as you collect additional data.

However, challenges might arise with:

• Time and Resources: Because grounded theory analysis is a continuous process, it requires a large commitment of time and resources.
• Theoretical Development: Creating a grounded theory involves a thorough understanding of qualitative data analysis software and theoretical concepts.
• Interpretation of Complexity: Interpreting and incorporating a newly developed theory into existing literature can be intellectually hard.

Example of Grounded Theory Analysis

Assume you’re performing a grounded theory analysis on workplace collaboration interviews. As you open code the data, you will discover notions such as “communication barriers,” “team dynamics,” and “leadership roles.” Axial coding demonstrates links between these notions, emphasizing the significance of efficient communication in developing collaboration.

You create the core “Integrated Communication Strategies” category through selective coding, which unifies new topics.

This theory-driven category serves as the framework for understanding how numerous aspects contribute to effective team collaboration. This example shows how grounded theory analysis allows you to generate a theory directly from the inherent nature of the data.

Method 5: Discourse Analysis

Discourse analysis focuses on language and communication. You’ll look at how language produces meaning and how it reflects power relations, identities, and cultural influences. This strategy examines what is said and how it is said; the words, phrasing, and larger context of communication.

The analysis is precious when investigating power dynamics, identities, and cultural influences encoded in language. By evaluating the language used in your data, you can identify underlying assumptions, cultural standards, and how individuals negotiate meaning through communication.

Steps to Do Discourse Analysis

Conducting discourse analysis entails the following steps:

• Select Discourse: For analysis, choose language-based data such as texts, speeches, or media content.
• Analyze Language: Immerse yourself in the conversation, examining language choices, metaphors, and underlying assumptions.
• Discover Patterns: Recognize the dialogue’s reoccurring themes, ideologies, and power dynamics. To fully understand the effects of these patterns, put them in their larger context.

There are various advantages of using discourse analysis:

• Understanding Language: It provides an extensive understanding of how language builds meaning and influences perceptions.
• Uncovering Power Dynamics: The analysis reveals how power dynamics appear via language.
• Cultural Insights: This method identifies cultural norms, beliefs, and ideologies stored in communication.

However, the following challenges may arise:

• Complexity of Interpretation: Language analysis involves navigating multiple levels of nuance and interpretation.
• Subjectivity: Interpretation can be subjective, so controlling researcher bias is important.
• Time-Intensive: Discourse analysis can take a lot of time because careful linguistic study is required in this analysis.

Example of Discourse Analysis

Consider doing discourse analysis on media coverage of a political event. You notice repeating linguistic patterns in news articles that depict the event as a conflict between opposing parties. Through deconstruction, you can expose how this framing supports particular ideologies and power relations.

You can illustrate how language choices influence public perceptions and contribute to building the narrative around the event by analyzing the speech within the broader political and social context. This example shows how discourse analysis can reveal hidden power dynamics and cultural influences on communication.

How to do Qualitative Data Analysis with the QuestionPro Research suite?

QuestionPro is a popular survey and research platform that offers tools for collecting and analyzing qualitative and quantitative data. Follow these general steps for conducting qualitative data analysis using the QuestionPro Research Suite:

• Collect Qualitative Data: Set up your survey to capture qualitative responses. It might involve open-ended questions, text boxes, or comment sections where participants can provide detailed responses.
• Export Qualitative Responses: Export the responses once you’ve collected qualitative data through your survey. QuestionPro typically allows you to export survey data in various formats, such as Excel or CSV.
• Prepare Data for Analysis: Review the exported data and clean it if necessary. Remove irrelevant or duplicate entries to ensure your data is ready for analysis.
• Code and Categorize Responses: Segment and label data, letting new patterns emerge naturally, then develop categories through axial coding to structure the analysis.
• Identify Themes: Analyze the coded responses to identify recurring themes, patterns, and insights. Look for similarities and differences in participants’ responses.
• Generate Reports and Visualizations: Utilize the reporting features of QuestionPro to create visualizations, charts, and graphs that help communicate the themes and findings from your qualitative research.
• Interpret and Draw Conclusions: Interpret the themes and patterns you’ve identified in the qualitative data. Consider how these findings answer your research questions or provide insights into your study topic.
• Integrate with Quantitative Data (if applicable): If you’re also conducting quantitative research using QuestionPro, consider integrating your qualitative findings with quantitative results to provide a more comprehensive understanding.

Qualitative data analysis is vital in uncovering various human experiences, views, and stories. If you’re ready to transform your research journey and apply the power of qualitative analysis, now is the moment to do it. Book a demo with QuestionPro today and begin your journey of exploration.

LEARN MORE         FREE TRIAL

MORE LIKE THIS

The Best Email Survey Tool to Boost Your Feedback Game

May 7, 2024

Top 10 Employee Engagement Survey Tools

Top 20 Employee Engagement Software Solutions

May 3, 2024

15 Best Customer Experience Software of 2024

May 2, 2024

Other categories

• Academic Research
• Artificial Intelligence
• Assessments
• Brand Awareness
• Case Studies
• Communities
• Consumer Insights
• Customer effort score
• Customer Engagement
• Customer Experience
• Customer Loyalty
• Customer Research
• Customer Satisfaction
• Employee Benefits
• Employee Engagement
• Employee Retention
• Friday Five
• General Data Protection Regulation
• Insights Hub
• Life@QuestionPro
• Market Research
• Mobile diaries
• Mobile Surveys
• New Features
• Online Communities
• Question Types
• Questionnaire
• QuestionPro Products
• Release Notes
• Research Tools and Apps
• Revenue at Risk
• Survey Templates
• Training Tips
• Uncategorized
• Video Learning Series
• What’s Coming Up
• Workforce Intelligence

New Content From Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science

• Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science
• Cognitive Dissonance
• Meta-Analysis
• Methodology
• Preregistration
• Reproducibility

A Practical Guide to Conversation Research: How to Study What People Say to Each Other Michael Yeomans, F. Katelynn Boland, Hanne Collins, Nicole Abi-Esber, and Alison Wood Brooks  

Conversation—a verbal interaction between two or more people—is a complex, pervasive, and consequential human behavior. Conversations have been studied across many academic disciplines. However, advances in recording and analysis techniques over the last decade have allowed researchers to more directly and precisely examine conversations in natural contexts and at a larger scale than ever before, and these advances open new paths to understand humanity and the social world. Existing reviews of text analysis and conversation research have focused on text generated by a single author (e.g., product reviews, news articles, and public speeches) and thus leave open questions about the unique challenges presented by interactive conversation data (i.e., dialogue). In this article, we suggest approaches to overcome common challenges in the workflow of conversation science, including recording and transcribing conversations, structuring data (to merge turn-level and speaker-level data sets), extracting and aggregating linguistic features, estimating effects, and sharing data. This practical guide is meant to shed light on current best practices and empower more researchers to study conversations more directly—to expand the community of conversation scholars and contribute to a greater cumulative scientific understanding of the social world. 

Open-Science Guidance for Qualitative Research: An Empirically Validated Approach for De-Identifying Sensitive Narrative Data Rebecca Campbell, McKenzie Javorka, Jasmine Engleton, Kathryn Fishwick, Katie Gregory, and Rachael Goodman-Williams  

The open-science movement seeks to make research more transparent and accessible. To that end, researchers are increasingly expected to share de-identified data with other scholars for review, reanalysis, and reuse. In psychology, open-science practices have been explored primarily within the context of quantitative data, but demands to share qualitative data are becoming more prevalent. Narrative data are far more challenging to de-identify fully, and because qualitative methods are often used in studies with marginalized, minoritized, and/or traumatized populations, data sharing may pose substantial risks for participants if their information can be later reidentified. To date, there has been little guidance in the literature on how to de-identify qualitative data. To address this gap, we developed a methodological framework for remediating sensitive narrative data. This multiphase process is modeled on common qualitative-coding strategies. The first phase includes consultations with diverse stakeholders and sources to understand reidentifiability risks and data-sharing concerns. The second phase outlines an iterative process for recognizing potentially identifiable information and constructing individualized remediation strategies through group review and consensus. The third phase includes multiple strategies for assessing the validity of the de-identification analyses (i.e., whether the remediated transcripts adequately protect participants’ privacy). We applied this framework to a set of 32 qualitative interviews with sexual-assault survivors. We provide case examples of how blurring and redaction techniques can be used to protect names, dates, locations, trauma histories, help-seeking experiences, and other information about dyadic interactions. 

Impossible Hypotheses and Effect-Size Limits Wijnand van Tilburg and Lennert van Tilburg

Psychological science is moving toward further specification of effect sizes when formulating hypotheses, performing power analyses, and considering the relevance of findings. This development has sparked an appreciation for the wider context in which such effect sizes are found because the importance assigned to specific sizes may vary from situation to situation. We add to this development a crucial but in psychology hitherto underappreciated contingency: There are mathematical limits to the magnitudes that population effect sizes can take within the common multivariate context in which psychology is situated, and these limits can be far more restrictive than typically assumed. The implication is that some hypothesized or preregistered effect sizes may be impossible. At the same time, these restrictions offer a way of statistically triangulating the plausible range of unknown effect sizes. We explain the reason for the existence of these limits, illustrate how to identify them, and offer recommendations and tools for improving hypothesized effect sizes by exploiting the broader multivariate context in which they occur. 

It’s All About Timing: Exploring Different Temporal Resolutions for Analyzing Digital-Phenotyping Data Anna Langener, Gert Stulp, Nicholas Jacobson, Andrea Costanzo, Raj Jagesar, Martien Kas, and Laura Bringmann  

The use of smartphones and wearable sensors to passively collect data on behavior has great potential for better understanding psychological well-being and mental disorders with minimal burden. However, there are important methodological challenges that may hinder the widespread adoption of these passive measures. A crucial one is the issue of timescale: The chosen temporal resolution for summarizing and analyzing the data may affect how results are interpreted. Despite its importance, the choice of temporal resolution is rarely justified. In this study, we aim to improve current standards for analyzing digital-phenotyping data by addressing the time-related decisions faced by researchers. For illustrative purposes, we use data from 10 students whose behavior (e.g., GPS, app usage) was recorded for 28 days through the Behapp application on their mobile phones. In parallel, the participants actively answered questionnaires on their phones about their mood several times a day. We provide a walk-through on how to study different timescales by doing individualized correlation analyses and random-forest prediction models. By doing so, we demonstrate how choosing different resolutions can lead to different conclusions. Therefore, we propose conducting a multiverse analysis to investigate the consequences of choosing different temporal resolutions. This will improve current standards for analyzing digital-phenotyping data and may help combat the replications crisis caused in part by researchers making implicit decisions. 

Calculating Repeated-Measures Meta-Analytic Effects for Continuous Outcomes: A Tutorial on Pretest–Posttest-Controlled Designs David R. Skvarc, Matthew Fuller-Tyszkiewicz  

Meta-analysis is a statistical technique that combines the results of multiple studies to arrive at a more robust and reliable estimate of an overall effect or estimate of the true effect. Within the context of experimental study designs, standard meta-analyses generally use between-groups differences at a single time point. This approach fails to adequately account for preexisting differences that are likely to threaten causal inference. Meta-analyses that take into account the repeated-measures nature of these data are uncommon, and so this article serves as an instructive methodology for increasing the precision of meta-analyses by attempting to estimate the repeated-measures effect sizes, with particular focus on contexts with two time points and two groups (a between-groups pretest–posttest design)—a common scenario for clinical trials and experiments. In this article, we summarize the concept of a between-groups pretest–posttest meta-analysis and its applications. We then explain the basic steps involved in conducting this meta-analysis, including the extraction of data and several alternative approaches for the calculation of effect sizes. We also highlight the importance of considering the presence of within-subjects correlations when conducting this form of meta-analysis.   

Reliability and Feasibility of Linear Mixed Models in Fully Crossed Experimental Designs Michele Scandola, Emmanuele Tidoni  

The use of linear mixed models (LMMs) is increasing in psychology and neuroscience research In this article, we focus on the implementation of LMMs in fully crossed experimental designs. A key aspect of LMMs is choosing a random-effects structure according to the experimental needs. To date, opposite suggestions are present in the literature, spanning from keeping all random effects (maximal models), which produces several singularity and convergence issues, to removing random effects until the best fit is found, with the risk of inflating Type I error (reduced models). However, defining the random structure to fit a nonsingular and convergent model is not straightforward. Moreover, the lack of a standard approach may lead the researcher to make decisions that potentially inflate Type I errors. After reviewing LMMs, we introduce a step-by-step approach to avoid convergence and singularity issues and control for Type I error inflation during model reduction of fully crossed experimental designs. Specifically, we propose the use of complex random intercepts (CRIs) when maximal models are overparametrized. CRIs are multiple random intercepts that represent the residual variance of categorical fixed effects within a given grouping factor. We validated CRIs and the proposed procedure by extensive simulations and a real-case application. We demonstrate that CRIs can produce reliable results and require less computational resources. Moreover, we outline a few criteria and recommendations on how and when scholars should reduce overparametrized models. Overall, the proposed procedure provides clear solutions to avoid overinflated results using LMMs in psychology and neuroscience.   

Understanding Meta-Analysis Through Data Simulation With Applications to Power Analysis Filippo Gambarota, Gianmarco Altoè  

Meta-analysis is a powerful tool to combine evidence from existing literature. Despite several introductory and advanced materials about organizing, conducting, and reporting a meta-analysis, to our knowledge, there are no introductive materials about simulating the most common meta-analysis models. Data simulation is essential for developing and validating new statistical models and procedures. Furthermore, data simulation is a powerful educational tool for understanding a statistical method. In this tutorial, we show how to simulate equal-effects, random-effects, and metaregression models and illustrate how to estimate statistical power. Simulations for multilevel and multivariate models are available in the Supplemental Material available online. All materials associated with this article can be accessed on OSF ( https://osf.io/54djn/ ).   

Feedback on this article? Email  [email protected]  or login to comment.

APS regularly opens certain online articles for discussion on our website. Effective February 2021, you must be a logged-in APS member to post comments. By posting a comment, you agree to our Community Guidelines and the display of your profile information, including your name and affiliation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations present in article comments are those of the writers and do not necessarily reflect the views of APS or the article’s author. For more information, please see our Community Guidelines .

Please login with your APS account to comment.

Privacy Overview

Understanding data analysis: A beginner's guide

Before data can be used to tell a story, it must go through a process that makes it usable. Explore the role of data analysis in decision-making.

What is data analysis?

Data analysis is the process of gathering, cleaning, and modeling data to reveal meaningful insights. This data is then crafted into reports that support the strategic decision-making process.

Types of data analysis

There are many different types of data analysis. Each type can be used to answer a different question.

Descriptive analytics

Descriptive analytics refers to the process of analyzing historical data to understand trends and patterns. For example, success or failure to achieve key performance indicators like return on investment.

An example of descriptive analytics is generating reports to provide an overview of an organization's sales and financial data, offering valuable insights into past activities and outcomes.

Predictive analytics

Predictive analytics uses historical data to help predict what might happen in the future, such as identifying past trends in data to determine if they’re likely to recur.

Methods include a range of statistical and machine learning techniques, including neural networks, decision trees, and regression analysis.

Diagnostic analytics

Diagnostic analytics helps answer questions about what caused certain events by looking at performance indicators. Diagnostic analytics techniques supplement basic descriptive analysis.

Generally, diagnostic analytics involves spotting anomalies in data (like an unexpected shift in a metric), gathering data related to these anomalies, and using statistical techniques to identify potential explanations.

Cognitive analytics

Cognitive analytics is a sophisticated form of data analysis that goes beyond traditional methods. This method uses machine learning and natural language processing to understand, reason, and learn from data in a way that resembles human thought processes.

The goal of cognitive analytics is to simulate human-like thinking to provide deeper insights, recognize patterns, and make predictions.

Prescriptive analytics

Prescriptive analytics helps answer questions about what needs to happen next to achieve a certain goal or target. By using insights from prescriptive analytics, organizations can make data-driven decisions in the face of uncertainty.

Data analysts performing prescriptive analysis often rely on machine learning to find patterns in large semantic models and estimate the likelihood of various outcomes.

analyticsText analytics

Text analytics is a way to teach computers to understand human language. It involves using algorithms and other techniques to extract information from large amounts of text data, such as social media posts or customer previews.

Text analytics helps data analysts make sense of what people are saying, find patterns, and gain insights that can be used to make better decisions in fields like business, marketing, and research.

The data analysis process

Compiling and interpreting data so it can be used in decision making is a detailed process and requires a systematic approach. Here are the steps that data analysts follow:

1. Define your objectives.

Clearly define the purpose of your analysis. What specific question are you trying to answer? What problem do you want to solve? Identify your core objectives. This will guide the entire process.

2. Collect and consolidate your data.

Gather your data from all relevant sources using  data analysis software . Ensure that the data is representative and actually covers the variables you want to analyze.

3. Select your analytical methods.

Investigate the various data analysis methods and select the technique that best aligns with your objectives. Many free data analysis software solutions offer built-in algorithms and methods to facilitate this selection process.

4. Clean your data.

Scrutinize your data for errors, missing values, or inconsistencies using the cleansing features already built into your data analysis software. Cleaning the data ensures accuracy and reliability in your analysis and is an important part of data analytics.

5. Uncover valuable insights.

Delve into your data to uncover patterns, trends, and relationships. Use statistical methods, machine learning algorithms, or other analytical techniques that are aligned with your goals. This step transforms raw data into valuable insights.

6. Interpret and visualize the results.

Examine the results of your analyses to understand their implications. Connect these findings with your initial objectives. Then, leverage the visualization tools within free data analysis software to present your insights in a more digestible format.

7. Make an informed decision.

Use the insights gained from your analysis to inform your next steps. Think about how these findings can be utilized to enhance processes, optimize strategies, or improve overall performance.

By following these steps, analysts can systematically approach large sets of data, breaking down the complexities and ensuring the results are actionable for decision makers.

The importance of data analysis

Data analysis is critical because it helps business decision makers make sense of the information they collect in our increasingly data-driven world. Imagine you have a massive pile of puzzle pieces (data), and you want to see the bigger picture (insights). Data analysis is like putting those puzzle pieces together—turning that data into knowledge—to reveal what’s important.

Whether you’re a business decision maker trying to make sense of customer preferences or a scientist studying trends, data analysis is an important tool that helps us understand the world and make informed choices.

Primary data analysis methods

Quantitative analysis

Quantitative analysis deals with numbers and measurements (for example, looking at survey results captured through ratings). When performing quantitative analysis, you’ll use mathematical and statistical methods exclusively and answer questions like ‘how much’ or ‘how many.’ 

Qualitative analysis

Qualitative analysis is about understanding the subjective meaning behind non-numerical data. For example, analyzing interview responses or looking at pictures to understand emotions. Qualitative analysis looks for patterns, themes, or insights, and is mainly concerned with depth and detail.

Data analysis solutions and resources

Turn your data into actionable insights and visualize the results with ease.

Microsoft 365

Process data and turn ideas into reality with innovative apps, including Excel.

Importance of backing up data

Learn how to back up your data and devices for peace of mind—and added security. 

Copilot in Excel

Go deeper with your data using Microsoft Copilot—your AI assistant.

Excel expense template

Organize and track your business expenses using Excel.

Excel templates

Boost your productivity with free, customizable Excel templates for all types of documents.

Chart designs

Enhance presentations, research, and other materials with customizable chart templates.

Follow Microsoft

A new sample-size planning approach for person-specific VAR(1) studies: Predictive accuracy analysis

• Original Manuscript
• Published: 08 May 2024

Cite this article

• Jordan Revol   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-5511-3617 1 ,
• Ginette Lafit   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-8227-128X 2 &
• Eva Ceulemans   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-7611-4683 1  

22 Accesses

6 Altmetric

Explore all metrics

Researchers increasingly study short-term dynamic processes that evolve within single individuals using N = 1 studies. The processes of interest are typically captured by fitting a VAR(1) model to the resulting data. A crucial question is how to perform sample-size planning and thus decide on the number of measurement occasions that are needed. The most popular approach is to perform a power analysis, which focuses on detecting the effects of interest. We argue that performing sample-size planning based on out-of-sample predictive accuracy yields additional important information regarding potential overfitting of the model. Predictive accuracy quantifies how well the estimated VAR(1) model will allow predicting unseen data from the same individual. We propose a new simulation-based sample-size planning method called predictive accuracy analysis (PAA), and an associated Shiny app. This approach makes use of a novel predictive accuracy metric that accounts for the multivariate nature of the prediction problem. We showcase how the values of the different VAR(1) model parameters impact power and predictive accuracy-based sample-size recommendations using simulated data sets and real data applications. The range of recommended sample sizes is smaller for predictive accuracy analysis than for power analysis.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price includes VAT (Russian Federation)

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Rent this article via DeepDyve

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

Estimating power in (generalized) linear mixed models: An open introduction and tutorial in R

Sample size planning for complex study designs: A tutorial for the mlpwr package

Bayesian updating: increasing sample size during the course of a study

We used the following packages: DataFrames (version 1.6.1), DataTables (version 0.1.0), DataAPI (version 1.1.0), CSV (version 0.10.12) to handle the data; LinearAlgebra (version 0.5.1), GLM (version 1.9.0), HypothesisTests (version 0.11.0), StatsBase (version 0.34.2) to estimate the model and extract the estimated parameters; Distributions (version 0.25.107) and Distances (version 0.10.11) to handle statistical distributions.

When generating (V)AR(1) time series, we have to use starting values, that is, the variable scores at the first time point. To remove the influence of these starting values, we removed the first 1000 time points (known as the burn-in phase).

Adolf, J. K., Voelkle, M. C., Brose, A., & Schmiedek, F. (2017). Capturing context-related change in emotional dynamics via fixed moderated time series analysis. Multivariate Behavioral Research, 52 (4), 499–531.

Ariens, S., Ceulemans, E., & Adolf, J. K. (2020). Time series analysis of intensive longitudinal data in psychosomatic research: A methodological overview. Journal of Psycho-somatic Research, 137 , 110191.

Article   Google Scholar  

Babyak, M. A. (2004). What you see may not be what you get: A brief, nontechnical introduction to overfitting in regression-type models. Psychosomatic Medicine, 66 (3), 411–421.

Bezanson, J., Karpinski, S., Shah, V., & Edelman, A. (2012). Julia: A fast dynamic language for technical computing.

Borsboom, D., & Cramer, A. O. (2013). Network analysis: An integrative approach to the structure of psychopathology. Annual Review of Clinical Psychology, 9 (1), 91–121.

Bulteel, K., Mestdagh, M., Tuerlinckx, F., & Ceulemans, E. (2018). VAR(1) based models do not always outpredict AR(1) models in typical psychological applications. Psychological Methods, 23 , 740–756.

Article   PubMed   Google Scholar  

Bulteel, K., Tuerlinckx, F., Brose, A., & Ceulemans, E. (2018). Improved insight into and prediction of network dynamics by combining VAR and dimension reduction. Multivariate Behavioral Research, 53 (6), 853–875.

Button, K. S., Ioannidis, J. P. A., Mokrysz, C., Nosek, B. A., Flint, J., Robinson, E. S. J., & Munafó, M. R. (2013). Power failure: Why small sample size undermines the reliability of neuroscience. Nature Reviews Neuroscience, 14 (5), 365–376.

Chang, W., Cheng, J., Allaire, JJ., Sievert, C., Schloerke, B., Xie, Y., Allen, J., McPherson, J., Dipert, A., & Borges, B. (2023). Shiny: Web application framework for R.

Cohen, J. (1992). Statistical power analysis. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 1 (3), 98–101.

De Haan-Rietdijk, S., Voelkle, M. C., Keijsers, L., & Hamaker, E. L. (2017). Discretevs. continuous-time modeling of unequally spaced experience sampling method data. Frontiers in Psychology, 8 , 1849.

Dejonckheere, E., Kalokerinos, E. K., Bastian, B., & Kuppens, P. (2019). Poor emotion regulation ability mediates the link between depressive symptoms and affective bipolarity. Cognition and Emotion, 33 (5), 1076–1083.

Dejonckheere, E., Mestdagh, M., Houben, M., Rutten, I., Sels, L., Kuppens, P., & Tuerlinckx, F. (2019). Complex affect dynamics add limited information to the prediction of psychological well-being. Nature Human Behaviour, 3 (5), 478–491.

Epskamp, S., van Borkulo, C. D., van der Veen, D. C., Servaas, M. N., Isvoranu, A.-M., Riese, H., & Cramer, A. O. J. (2018). Personalized network modeling in psychopathology: The importance of contemporaneous and temporal connections. Clinical Psycho-logical Science, 6 (3), 416–427.

Fisher, A. J., Reeves, J. W., Lawyer, G., Medaglia, J. D., & Rubel, J. A. (2017). Exploring the idiographic dynamics of mood and anxiety via network analysis. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 126 (8), 1044–1056.

Green, P., & MacLeod, C. J. (2016). SIMR : An R package for power analysis of generalized linear mixed models by simulation. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 7 (4), 493–498.

Hamaker, E. L., Asparouhov, T., Brose, A., Schmiedek, F., & Muthén, B. (2018). At the frontiers of modeling intensive longitudinal data: Dynamic structural equation models for the affective measurements from the COGITO study. Multivariate Behavioral Research, 53 (6), 820–841.

Hamaker, E. L., Ceulemans, E., Grasman, R. P. P. P., & Tuerlinckx, F. (2015). Modeling affect dynamics: State of the art and future challenges. Emotion Review, 7 (4), 316–322.

Hamaker, E. L., & Wichers, M. (2017). No time like the present: Discovering the hidden dynamics in intensive longitudinal data. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 26 (1), 10–15.

Hamaker, E. L., Zhang, Z., & Van Der Maas, H. L. J. (2009). Using threshold autoregressive models to study dyadic interactions. Psychometrika, 74 (4), 727.

Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R., & Friedman, J. (2013). The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction . New York, NY: Springer.

Google Scholar  

Heininga, V. E., Dejonckheere, E., Houben, M., Obbels, J., Sienaert, P., Leroy, B., van Roy, J., & Kuppens, P. (2019). The dynamical signature of anhedonia in major depressive disorder: Positive emotion dynamics, reactivity, and recovery. BMC Psychiatry, 19 (1), 59.

Article   PubMed   PubMed Central   Google Scholar  

Jongerling, J., Laurenceau, J.-P., & Hamaker, E. L. (2015). A multilevel AR(1) model: Allowing for inter-individual differences in trait-scores, inertia, and innovation variance. Multivariate Behavioral Research, 50 (3), 334–349.

Kirtley, O. J. (2022). Advancing credibility in longitudinal research by implementing open science practices: Opportunities, practical examples, and challenges. Infant and Child Development, 31 (1).

Krone, T., Albers, C. J., Kuppens, P., & Timmerman, M. E. (2018). A multivariate statistical model for emotion dynamics. Emotion, 18 , 739–754.

Kuppens, P. (2015). It’s about time: A special section on affect dynamics. Emotion Review, 7 (4), 297–300.

Kuppens, P., Allen, N. B., & Sheeber, L. B. (2010). Emotional inertia and psychological maladjustment. Psychological Science, 21 (7), 984–991.

Kuppens, P., Champagne, D., & Tuerlinckx, F. (2012). The dynamic interplay between appraisal and core affect in daily life. Frontiers in Psychology, 3 .

Kuppens, P., & Verduyn, P. (2017). Emotion dynamics. Current Opinion in Psychology, 17 , 22–26.

Lafit, G., Adolf, J. K., Dejonckheere, E., Myin-Germeys, I., Viechtbauer, W., & Ceulemans, E. (2021). Selection of the number of participants in intensive longitudinal studies: A user-friendly shiny app and tutorial for performing power analysis in multilevel regression models that account for temporal dependencies. Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science, 4 (1), 251524592097873.

Lafit, G., Meers, K., & Ceulemans, E. (2022). A systematic study into the factors that affect the predictive accuracy of multilevel VAR(1) models. Psychometrika, 87 (2), 432–476.

Lafit, G., Revol, J., Cloos, L., Kuppens, P., & Ceulemans, E. (2023). The effect of different operationalizations of affect and preprocessing choices on power-based sample size recommendations in intensive longitudinal research .

Lafit, G., Sels, L., Adolf, J. K., Loeys, T., & Ceulemans, E. (2022b). PowerLAPIM: An application to conduct power analysis for linear and quadratic longitudinal actor–partner interdependence models in intensive longitudinal dyadic designs. Journal of Social and Personal Relationships , page 02654075221080128.

Lakens, D. (2022). Sample size justification. Collabra. Psychology, 8 (1), 33267.

Lane, S. P., & Hennes, E. P. (2018). Power struggles: Estimating sample size for multilevel relationships research. Journal of Social and Personal Relationships, 35 (1), 7–31.

Larson, R. & Csikszentmihalyi, M. (2014). The Experience Sampling Method, pages 21–34. Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht.

Liu, S. & Zhou, D. J. (2023). Using cross-validation methods to select time series models: Promises and pitfalls. British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology , page bmsp.12330.

Loossens, T., Dejonckheere, E., Tuerlinckx, F., & Verdonck, S. (2021). Informing VAR(1) with qualitative dynamical features improves predictive accuracy. Psychological Methods, 26 (6), 635–659.

Lütkepohl, H. (2005). New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis . Berlin Heidelberg: Springer.

Mansueto, A. C., Wiers, R. W., van Weert, J. C. M., Schouten, B. C., & Epskamp, S. (2022). Investigating the feasibility of idiographic network models. Psychological Methods .

Marriott, F. H. C., & Pope, J. A. (1954). Bias in the estimation of autocorrelations. Biometrika, 41 (3/4), 390.

Munafó, M. R., Nosek, B. A., Bishop, D. V. M., Button, K. S., Chambers, C. D., Percie du Sert, N., Simonsohn, U., Wagenmakers, E.-J., Ware, J. J., & Ioannidis, J. P. A. (2017). A manifesto for reproducible science. Nature Human Behaviour, 1 (1), 0021.

Myin-Germeys, I., & Kuppens, P. (Eds.). (2021). The Open Handbook of Experience Sampling Methodology: A Step-by-Step Guide to Designing, Conducting, and Analyzing ESM Studies . Leuven: Center for Research on Experience Sampling and Ambulatory Methods.

Pe, M. L., Brose, A., Gotlib, I. H., & Kuppens, P. (2016). Affective updating ability and stressful events interact to prospectively predict increases in depressive symptoms over time. Emotion, 16 (1), 73–82.

Pe, M. L., Kircanski, K., Thompson, R. J., Bringmann, L. F., Tuerlinckx, F., Mestdagh, M., Mata, J., Jaeggi, S. M., Buschkuehl, M., Jonides, J., Kuppens, P., & Gotlib, I. H. (2015). Emotion-network density in major depressive disorder. Clinical Psychological Science, 3 (2), 292–300.

Phillips, P. C. B. (1995). Fully modified least squares and vector autoregression. Econo-metrica, 63 (5), 1023.

Provenzano, J., Fossati, P., Dejonckheere, E., Verduyn, P., & Kuppens, P. (2021). In exibly sustained negative affect and rumination independently link default mode network efficiency to subclinical depressive symptoms. Journal of Affective Disorders, 293 , 347–354.

Rosseel, Y. (2012). lavaan: An R package for structural equation modeling. Journal of Statistical Software, 48 (2), 1–36.

Schuurman, N. K., & Hamaker, E. L. (2019). Measurement error and person-specific reliability in multilevel autoregressive modeling. Psychological Methods, 24 (1), 70–91.

Sels, L., Ceulemans, E., & Kuppens, P. (2017). Partner-expected affect: How you feel now is predicted by how your partner thought you felt before. Emotion, 17 (7), 1066–1077.

Tong, H., & Lim, K. S. (1980). Threshold autoregression, limit cycles and cyclical data. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 42 (3), 245–268.

Trafimow, D. (2022). Generalizing across auxiliary, statistical, and inferential assumptions. Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour, 52 (1), 37–48.

Trull, T. J., & Ebner-Priemer, U. W. (2020). Ambulatory assessment in psychopathology research: A review of recommended reporting guidelines and current practices. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 129 (1), 56–63.

Vanhasbroeck, N., Ariens, S., Tuerlinckx, F., & Loossens, T. (2021). Computational Models for Affect Dynamics. In C. E. Waugh & P. Kuppens (Eds.), Affect Dynamics (pp. 213–260). Cham: Springer International Publishing.

Chapter   Google Scholar  

Vanhasbroeck, N., Loossens, T., Anarat, N., Ariens, S., Vanpaemel, W., Moors, A., & Tuerlinckx, F. (2022). Stimulus-driven affective change: Evaluating computational models of affect dynamics in conjunction with input. Affective Science, 3 (3), 559–576.

Yarkoni, T., & Westfall, J. (2017). Choosing prediction over explanation in psychology: Lessons from machine learning. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 12 (6), 1100–1122.

Zhang, Y., Revol, J., Lafit, G., Ernst, A., Razum, J., Ceulemans, E., & Bringmann, L. (2023). Sample size optimization for person-specific temporal networks using power analysis and predictive accuracy analysis. Manuscript in preparation.

Download references

The research presented in this article was supported by research grants from the Fund for Scientific Research-Flanders (FWO; Project No. G0C9821N) and from the Research Council of KU Leuven (C14/23/062; iBOF/21/090) awarded to E. Ceulemans.

Author information

Authors and affiliations.

Research Group of Quantitative Psychology and Individual Differences, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium

Jordan Revol & Eva Ceulemans

Methodology of Educational Sciences Research Group, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium

Ginette Lafit

You can also search for this author in PubMed   Google Scholar

Contributions

The authors made the following contributions. Jordan Revol: Conceptualization, Formal Analysis, Methodology, Visualization, Software, Writing - Original Draft Preparation, Review & Editing; Ginette Lafit: Conceptualization, Methodology, Supervision, Writing - Original Draft Preparation, Review & Editing. Eva Ceulemans: Conceptualization, Methodology, Funding acquisition, Supervision, Writing - Original Draft Preparation, Review & Editing.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jordan Revol .

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest.

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest with respect to the authorship or the publication of this article.

Additional information

Publisher's note.

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Revol, J., Lafit, G. & Ceulemans, E. A new sample-size planning approach for person-specific VAR(1) studies: Predictive accuracy analysis. Behav Res (2024). https://doi.org/10.3758/s13428-024-02413-4

Download citation

Accepted : 28 March 2024

Published : 08 May 2024

DOI : https://doi.org/10.3758/s13428-024-02413-4

Share this article

Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:

Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article.

Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative

• Predictive accuracy
• Sample-size planning method
• Power analysis
• Monte Carlo simulation
• Intensive longitudinal designs
• Autoregressive models
• Find a journal
• Publish with us
• Track your research

• Skip to primary navigation
• Skip to main content
• Skip to primary sidebar

PESTLE Analysis

Insights and resources on business analysis tools

PEST Analysis: Examples and Meaning in Business

Last Updated: Apr 8, 2024 by Jim Makos Filed Under: PEST Analysis

What is a PEST analysis, and what are its four parts? What is the difference between PESTLE analysis and PEST, and why is it important for every business? As a business student, analyst, manager or owner, you are called to conduct a PEST analysis sooner or later. In the next 10 minutes, I’ll go through everything you need to know about PEST analysis and how you can do a PEST analysis of an organization starting from scratch. I promise you’ll know more about PEST analysis than 99% of people out there, as I’m explaining everything as concisely as possible. Let’s start with the PEST analysis definition.

What is a PEST Analysis?

PEST analysis is a strategic tool for organizations to identify and assess how Political, Economic, Social, and Technological external factors impact operations so that they can gain a competitive edge. A PEST analysis helps you determine how these factors will affect a business’s performance and strategy in the long term. It is often used in collaboration with other analytical business tools. For example:

• A combination of PEST and SWOT analysis usually gives a clearer understanding of a situation with related internal and external factors
• PESTLE analysis is an extension of PEST analysis that covers legal and environmental factors

I’m going to explain the PEST analysis as simply as possible with examples and a template for better understanding. I will also show how to do a PEST analysis starting from scratch, even for people without any business education like me!

Why Do a PEST Analysis

It’s simple: to succeed. For a business to be successful, they need a few things:

• A solid product
• Marketing plan
• Identifiable brand
• Happy customers
• Thorough budget
• An investor or two
• Unique selling position
• And a whole lot of research

Throughout the endless market research, customer acquisition costs, and project risk assessments, business managers could forget about outside influences ( we call these external factors in this type of analysis). Aside from the company’s internal resources and industry factors, PEST’s macroeconomic factors can impact a company’s performance in a big way.

By being aware of external factors, managers can aid their business. But if they don’t know them, they can cripple their business before it begins. That’s how advantageous PEST analysis is .

What are the four parts of PEST analysis?

Now, let me explain each of the four parts of a PEST analysis more thoroughly. You’ll better understand what each of these external factors in this analysis is all about.

• Political – Here, government regulations and legal factors are assessed in terms of their ability to affect the business environment and trade markets. The main issues addressed in this section include political stability, tax guidelines, trade regulations, safety regulations, and employment laws.
• Economic – Next, businesses examine the economic issues that have an impact on the company. This would include factors like inflation, interest rates, economic growth, the unemployment rate and policies, and the business cycle followed in the country.
• Social – At this stage, businesses focus on the society and people. Elements like customer demographics, cultural limitations, lifestyle attitudes, and education come into play here. This part allows a business to understand how consumer needs are shaped.
• Technological – This may come as a surprise, but technology may not always be an ally for businesses. Depending on the product, technology may affect the organization positively but also negatively. In PEST’s last section we find technological advancements, the role of the Internet, and how an industry’s innovation creates winners and losers.

Every business is different. Some factors may not affect a firm or industry as they would with others. But it’s beneficial to have a well-rounded view of the many factors that could affect them. Along with the ones that will affect them.

This is why we do PEST analysis for a business — to be aware of risks, opportunities, influences, and limitations. Let’s go deeper into these external factors that impact the success of a business. I’ll also briefly mention a specific example for each of them.

Political Factors

Political factors in PEST analysis refer to the extent to which the government and political actions in a country influence the business climate. Here are some examples that will occasionally make it into the (P) of my PEST analysis:

• Tax policies
• Tax incentives
• Political tensions
• Employment laws
• Import restrictions
• Health and safety laws
• Consumer protection laws
• Tariff and Trade restrictions
• Regulation and deregulation

For instance, a country’s foreign policy often plays an important role in determining trade regulations. This can either result in trade restrictions or trade incentives and can affect an organization’s operations. Read my dedicated page on political factors with more examples here .

Economic Factors

In the (E) part of PEST Analysis, we run into how the economy affects the organization. I consider the following economic factors when doing a PEST analysis:

• Interest rate
• Inflation rates
• Exchange rates
• Unemployment rate

For instance, exchange rates affect a global organization by influencing the cost of imported and exported goods. Furthermore, interest rates influence the cost of capital available to the organization. Thus they are significant in the expansion and growth of a business. Find more economic factors and examples of how they affect businesses here .

Social Factors

Social factors include different cultural and demographic aspects of society. These can affect the macro-environment in which the organization operates.

In the ‘S’ part of the PEST analysis I usually examine:

• Age distribution
• Cultural diversity
• Demographics shifts
• Population growth rate
• Health consciousness and trends
• Changing consumer lifestyles and preferences

A study of these factors can help organizations understand the dynamics of existing and emerging potential markets along with future customer needs.

Social factors are more unpredictable than economic and political factors, simply because people are unpredictable. But every business needs customers. And what and how they buy has an immediate effect on an organization’s profitability.

Based on these social factors, marketers create buyer personas. These avatars are necessary for businesses to target the ideal customer.

For example, if you’re selling whey powder, you go after fitness enthusiasts and bodybuilders. You are looking for people that follow an active lifestyle. Hence, a declining trend in health consciousness doesn’t seem encouraging.

That’s the tip of the iceberg. Learn more about social factors here .

Technological Factors

Technological factors aren’t important only for tech-related businesses. The (T) part in PEST analysis may affect even the most old-school organization that’s been operating for a century.

Technology is evolving at a rapid pace and consumers are becoming extremely tech-savvy. With the advent of new technology, older technology gets outdated and obsolete. If an organization does not look out for technological changes, it can lag behind its competitors.

I often include the following technological factors when conducting a PEST analysis:

• Cybersecurity Threats
• Emerging Technologies
• Big data and computing
• AI and Machine Learning
• Supply Chain Automation

Let’s consider the advancements in computing; more specifically, networking.

If a business offers the latest and fastest Wi-Fi in their store, it’s an added luxury. It’s annoying if it still operates on 3G speeds, but won’t ruin sales. However, if they handle all receipts in an online database and that goes offline because they didn’t keep their network infrastucture up-to-date then they have a major problem. Especially in big holidays like Black Friday.

Again, this is about impact on the business operation. How will ‘X’ technology affect the business in the long and short term? That’s what we’re trying to figure out with PEST analysis.

A ton more technological factors can be found here .

PEST Analysis Examples

Here is a hypothetical PEST analysis example that can give you a clear understanding of how this works:

Here at PESTLEanalysis.com I rarely limit myself to PEST analysis. I almost always go the extra mile and include the Legal and Environmental factors when I initiate a PEST analysis. This leads to a more detailed analysis called PESTLE.

PESTLE Analysis: An extension of PEST Analysis

PESTLE analysis is an extension of PEST that is used to assess two additional macroeconomic factors. These factors are the  Legal and Environmental conditions that can have an impact on a organization. Examples of PESTLE analysis are similar to those of a PEST analysis, but they will include factors such as these:

• Discrimination laws
• Copyright and patent laws

Environment:

• Waste management
• Changes in weather and climate
• Laws regarding pollution and recycling
• Use of green or eco-friendly products and practices

So, if you want to assess a business situation comprehensively, a PESTLE analysis is a definite must. You can find more about that analysis here .

Why PEST Analysis Is Important For Every Business

So, now that we did a PEST analysis, how’s that going to help the business?

What does a five-year business plan look like? Or a ten-year plan? It likely involves growth.

Whether it’s the expansion of a product line or opening stores in new locations, business changes need proper preparation. And that’s where the PEST analysis comes in.

PEST analysis is the foolproof plan for business expansion !

Both new business owners and veterans should include PEST analysis in their business plan. By breaking down the critical influences in the P.E.S.T. categories, businesses get a better understanding of whether their next business move is strategic or doesn’t make sense.

For example, politics isn’t just about political tensions, unrest and elections. Politics are also about trade policies, regulations and taxation. Companies doing business worldwide have to consider laws in the countries they operate, as well. Even if they aren’t doing international trade yet, it could be a possibility in the future, and going in blind is a good way to toss success out the window.

PEST analysis helps people become aware.

Aware of how political parties and regulations can impact a business. And how the economy (past, present, and future) affects an industry. It allows people to understand consumers — who they are, what they buy, and why they don’t buy. And finally, it identifies what technology is necessary for the development and success of a product, business, or industry.

It’s almost like an outline. It shows people what influences impact the quality, success, or devastation of businesses and industries. You can’t stop the four influences, but if you’re aware of them and their impact, you can plan around, against, or with them.

PEST analysis is often used by business analysts, marketers, students, and business owners, since it’s super important for every business!

All you need to do a proper PEST analysis is time. And the payoff is worth every second.

How PEST analysis works

PEST analysis requires research and data, sometimes ten years old, sometimes only a couple. The more information I have to go through, the more accurate my final results will be. By looking into the past and the present, I can make predictions for the future.

By studying these recent developments through a PEST analysis lens, organizations are deciding whether to jump into this for the long haul or for the time being.

You want to look at your industry in a similar light. Ten years ago, did it exist? Has it slowed down within the last two years or are more companies diving in? More competition can be a strong sign an industry is booming, but it could also be the first sign of oversaturation.

Break down your assessment into the four categories of PEST analysis. Start with politics and work your way through the remaining factors. Or start from the bottom. Whatever gets the job done and makes the analysis enjoyable.

How to Do a PEST Analysis From Scratch

I’ve written dozens of PEST analyses over the last couple of years. Below I document my process on how to do a PEST analysis , even when you’ve never written one before.

You should have a topic in mind. Most PEST analyses are about a specific business, industry, or product. However, they can also be applied to countries, too. You can’t start without a topic, though, so have it ready.

Where to find information for your PEST analysis

It’ll be easier to find and segment information if you break your analysis down into four sections, like the acronym implies:

• Technological

Each section will require its own information. However, some of this information will overlap.

For instance, the economy is often closely tied to political (in)stability. And the state of the economy always affects consumers (social). You don’t need to look for these patterns specifically— it’ll become apparent as you discover new information.

Start with the history

You should be familiar with your topic. If you’re not, read about its history. Learn how it was established, how long it has been around, and who founded it. Read about any major achievements on the organization in question over the last few years. Jot down notes whenever something that seems relevant or important pops up.

After this informational primer, it’s time to start on the four sections. I do my PEST analysis in order of the acronym because the information often bleeds into the next section.

Finding Political Information

Political information is easier to find than in other sections of the analysis (social and technological, specifically). Here, you’ll want to investigate the current political climate.

For instance, if the organization originates from America, you’ll research the current political parties. Who is in charge? Has this affected business operations in any way?

If your topic (business, product, industry) was established years ago, what was the political climate like then? Are different parties in power now? If this is the case, then you’ll want to compare how things have changed for your topic from then to now.

This is also the section where you’ll look into laws and regulations affecting business. Remember the list we went through in the beginning.

I find this information with a simple Google search. Such as “tariff laws USA” (plug in the country you’re searching for if it’s not the United States).

It’s best to get this information from a government site. These sites end in .gov. You may also find information from organizations (websites ending in .org) but not all of these sites are legitimate organizations. Be wary while you research.

Honestly, most of the information you’ll find is dense. But it’s easier if you have a goal. Look for signs of:

• Government (in)stability
• Possible political corruption
• New bills/regulations that may impact your topic
• Any issues your topic has had with current/former regulations or political parties

If your topic is a company, finding the right information may be easier. Search for “company name + political issues” or “company name + policies” and see what comes up. Avoid any information from untrustworthy sites and sites with no legitimate source.

Finding Economic Information

While you’re researching political information, you may come across connections to the current economy. For instance, political instability often leads to economic instability. This causes unemployment rates to rise and employee strikes. This affects how much disposable income people have.

You may have already found information in your political section that confirms economic problems. But if you haven’t, search government sites for current tax rates, interest rates (if your topic involves international business), and the current state of the economy. Is it good? Thriving? Or bad and declining?

Again, use government websites. Search for economic statistics over the last few years. If your topic is an industry, see how many companies (startups) have started within the last few years.

If your topic is a business that has international stores, look into the relationship between the country of origin and each country the company does business. If the relationship is good, it’s often a good outlook for the company. But if it’s bad, it may lead to problems. What problems? Do a bit of digging online.

Also, if your PEST analysis is for a company, you may look into stocks . Have they been declining? On the rise? Because if it’s the former, then the business may not be looking good. And you’ll want to find out why .

If my topic is a business, I sometimes check out the competition. I’ll look into how that other company has been fairing economically, specifically how its sales have risen or fallen over the last couple of years. If it’s dropped products, shifted marketing efforts, etc., I want to know why . A competitor analysis isn’t always necessary , but it can shed light on possible problems your topic may face.

Finding Social Information

This section is a bit trickier. Political and economic sectors rely heavily on data and evidence. You can find this information on government websites. News sites too, even. And although you can find databases about demographics and population growth for this section — all applicable in a PEST analysis — I wouldn’t stop there.

In the social section, I often examine how consumers are impacted by political and economic factors. You can draw conclusions based on the information you’ve already gathered from your political and economic segments.

For instance, if there is political instability and the economy is on the fritz, then consumers may feel uneasy. They may have fewer job options. And that means they’re less likely to spend frivolously. If your topic is a luxury product, it may mean the company that makes it may have lower sales this year.

But you also want to learn about how consumers feel about your topic. If it’s a company, do consumers generally like it? Or is public opinion souring? There should be a reason for why.

Consider Facebook. The company’s CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, has consistently been in hot water over the years. If not for data breaches affecting millions of users, but for their shady involvement with fake news and political tampering.

This has led many consumers to shy away from using Facebook. And this affects businesses that use Facebook to reach new customers.

In this section of the PEST analysis, I’m more likely to search for my topic on news sites and publications. The more popular the topic, the easier it’ll be to find articles written about it. But if the topic has ever been in the news, you’ll likely find it online.

Websites to search include :

• Consumer Reports
• Local news websites
• Other reputable sources

If you know your topic has been in the news for something bad, you can search the topic + the problem.

Although the information may overlap, take keynotes here. See how the problem is affecting consumer opinion. You may even want to take a look at the comments (if there are any) and see what people are saying. It’s coming straight from the lion’s mouth (consumers).

I think many PEST analyses favor numbers too much. We live in a world where anyone with an opinion can be heard, thanks to the internet. And enough of those voices can cause a business to change its policies and products. It can even cause the company to collapse.

So it’s important to search for how consumers feel about your topic too.

Finding Technological Information

This section of the PEST analysis is a bit abstract as well. You’re looking into how new technological advancements has affected your topic positively or negatively. You should also look into what technology your topic uses (currently). And what technology they may want to incorporate.

You may want to look at competitors if your topic is a product or business. See what others are using. And think about why they are.

Press releases

It may be beneficial to search for press releases involving your topic, if possible. If your company is using new technology, they may have announced it through a press release. You can search “company name + press release” or search through these press release websites:

• PR NewsWire
• NPR: National Public Radio

You may also find other information here for the other sections of the PEST analysis. Which is just an overall bonus. If all else fails, check if your topic has a website (unless it’s an industry or country). Discuss how they use social media (if they don’t, then… discuss that too!). In this section, you’re assessing what your topic uses, what it doesn’t, and why.

Putting it all together in a final PEST analysis

You’ll likely have heaps of information at hand. For some it’ll feel like too much — but that’s never the case for a PEST analysis. As you begin to read through each section’s notes, incorporate the most interesting, pressing, or surprising information. If anything overlaps with other sections, include that too.

I write each section of a PEST analysis at a time. I take my notes and create coherent sentences. Sometimes I make a list of the most important points and include them that way. If the section is long, I’ll use subheadings to break up the information.

Work on each section separately. And then if there are overlapping themes, incorporate those in. You may want to use those at the end of each section to connect to the next.

Once you’ve done this, you’ve completed your PEST analysis! Most of the work is in finding the information and making it coherent. The last 10-20 percent is putting it all together. So, once the research phase is done, you’re basically done too!

Understanding PEST Analysis: Taking Action

In conclusion, developing an understanding of what is PEST analysis becomes even more important when a company is about to launch a new business or a new product. In general, when they are about to change something drastically. That’s when all these factors play an important role in determining the feasibility and profitability of the new venture.

Therefore, developing an understanding of PEST analysis is useful for organizations for analyzing and understanding the ground realities of the environment they have to operate in.

Realizing what is PEST and knowing how to take this analysis into consideration, the organization can be in a better position to analyze the challenges, environment, factors, opportunities, restrictions and incentives it faces. In case an organization fails to take into account any one of these factors, it may fail to plan and operate properly.

But don’t PEST analysis stop you. Here are some variations that may come in handy when assessing how the external environment affects an organization:

• STEEP Analysis
• STEEPLED Analysis
• SWOT Analysis

Numbers, Facts and Trends Shaping Your World

Read our research on:

Full Topic List

Regions & Countries

• Publications
• Our Methods
• Short Reads
• Tools & Resources

Read Our Research On:

Teens and Video Games Today

• Methodology

Table of Contents

• Who plays video games?
• How often do teens play video games?
• What devices do teens play video games on?
• Social media use among gamers
• Teen views on how much they play video games and efforts to cut back
• Are teens social with others through video games?
• Do teens think video games positively or negatively impact their lives?
• Why do teens play video games?
• Bullying and violence in video games
• Appendix A: Detailed charts
• Acknowledgments

The analysis in this report is based on a self-administered web survey conducted from Sept. 26 to Oct. 23, 2023, among a sample of 1,453 dyads, with each dyad (or pair) comprised of one U.S. teen ages 13 to 17 and one parent per teen. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,453 teens is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,453 parents is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. The survey was conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs in English and Spanish using KnowledgePanel, its nationally representative online research panel.

The research plan for this project was submitted to an external institutional review board (IRB), Advarra, which is an independent committee of experts that specializes in helping to protect the rights of research participants. The IRB thoroughly vetted this research before data collection began. Due to the risks associated with surveying minors, this research underwent a full board review and received approval (Approval ID Pro00073203).

KnowledgePanel members are recruited through probability sampling methods and include both those with internet access and those who did not have internet access at the time of their recruitment. KnowledgePanel provides internet access for those who do not have it and, if needed, a device to access the internet when they join the panel. KnowledgePanel’s recruitment process was originally based exclusively on a national random-digit dialing (RDD) sampling methodology. In 2009, Ipsos migrated to an address-based sampling (ABS) recruitment methodology via the U.S. Postal Service’s Delivery Sequence File (DSF). The Delivery Sequence File has been estimated to cover as much as 98% of the population, although some studies suggest that the coverage could be in the low 90% range. 4

Panelists were eligible for participation in this survey if they indicated on an earlier profile survey that they were the parent of a teen ages 13 to 17. A random sample of 3,981 eligible panel members were invited to participate in the study. Responding parents were screened and considered qualified for the study if they reconfirmed that they were the parent of at least one child ages 13 to 17 and granted permission for their teen who was chosen to participate in the study. In households with more than one eligible teen, parents were asked to think about one randomly selected teen, and that teen was instructed to complete the teen portion of the survey. A survey was considered complete if both the parent and selected teen completed their portions of the questionnaire, or if the parent did not qualify during the initial screening.

Of the sampled panelists, 1,763 (excluding break-offs) responded to the invitation and 1,453 qualified, completed the parent portion of the survey, and had their selected teen complete the teen portion of the survey, yielding a final stage completion rate of 44% and a qualification rate of 82%. The cumulative response rate accounting for nonresponse to the recruitment surveys and attrition is 2.2%. The break-off rate among those who logged on to the survey (regardless of whether they completed any items or qualified for the study) is 26.9%.

Upon completion, qualified respondents received a cash-equivalent incentive worth $10 for completing the survey. To encourage response from non-Hispanic Black panelists, the incentive was increased from $10 to $20 on Oct 5, 2023. The incentive was increased again on Oct. 10, from $20 to $40; then to $50 on Oct. 17; and to $75 on Oct. 20. Reminders and notifications of the change in incentive were sent for each increase.

All panelists received email invitations and any nonresponders received reminders, shown in the table. The field period was closed on Oct. 23, 2023.

The analysis in this report was performed using separate weights for parents and teens. The parent weight was created in a multistep process that begins with a base design weight for the parent, which is computed to reflect their probability of selection for recruitment into the KnowledgePanel. These selection probabilities were then adjusted to account for the probability of selection for this survey, which included oversamples of non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic parents. Next, an iterative technique was used to align the parent design weights to population benchmarks for parents of teens ages 13 to 17 on the dimensions identified in the accompanying table, to account for any differential nonresponse that may have occurred.

To create the teen weight, an adjustment factor was applied to the final parent weight to reflect the selection of one teen per household. Finally, the teen weights were further raked to match the demographic distribution for teens ages 13 to 17 who live with parents. The teen weights were adjusted on the same teen dimensions as parent dimensions with the exception of teen education, which was not used in the teen weighting.

Sampling errors and tests of statistical significance take into account the effect of weighting. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

The following table shows the unweighted sample sizes and the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey:

Sample sizes and sampling errors for subgroups are available upon request.

Dispositions and response rates

The tables below display dispositions used in the calculation of completion, qualification and cumulative response rates. 5

© Pew Research Center, 2023

• AAPOR Task Force on Address-based Sampling. 2016. “AAPOR Report: Address-based Sampling.” ↩
• For more information on this method of calculating response rates, refer to: Callegaro, Mario, and Charles DiSogra. 2008. “Computing response metrics for online panels.” Public Opinion Quarterly. ↩

Sign up for our weekly newsletter

Fresh data delivery Saturday mornings

Sign up for The Briefing

Weekly updates on the world of news & information

• Friendships
• Online Harassment & Bullying
• Teens & Tech
• Teens & Youth

How Teens and Parents Approach Screen Time

Teens and internet, device access fact sheet, teens and social media fact sheet, teens, social media and technology 2023, what the data says about americans’ views of artificial intelligence, most popular, report materials.

1615 L St. NW, Suite 800 Washington, DC 20036 USA (+1) 202-419-4300 | Main (+1) 202-857-8562 | Fax (+1) 202-419-4372 |  Media Inquiries

Research Topics

• Age & Generations
• Coronavirus (COVID-19)
• Economy & Work
• Family & Relationships
• Gender & LGBTQ
• Immigration & Migration
• International Affairs
• Internet & Technology
• Methodological Research
• News Habits & Media
• Non-U.S. Governments
• Other Topics
• Politics & Policy
• Race & Ethnicity
• Email Newsletters

ABOUT PEW RESEARCH CENTER  Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world. It conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, media content analysis and other empirical social science research. Pew Research Center does not take policy positions. It is a subsidiary of  The Pew Charitable Trusts .

Copyright 2024 Pew Research Center

Terms & Conditions

Privacy Policy

Cookie Settings

Reprints, Permissions & Use Policy