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Students taking the latest version of the SAT have a lot of questions about the Essay section in particular. When the College Board redesigned the SAT in 2016, the Essay section was the aspect of the test that changed most substantially.

As a result, it is the section that is least understood. Keep reading to learn how we approach setting a good target score for this often enigmatic section of the SAT.

What Is the SAT Essay?

Students taking the optional Essay section are provided with a written argument and asked to analyze it. Check out the College Board’s example prompt with sample graded responses to get a sense of what the exam looks like.

Is the SAT Essay Required?

This is the only optional section of the SAT. It does not impact your overall score out of 1600. Instead, your Essay grade stands alone on your score report.

While the College Board does not require the SAT Essay, certain schools do. 

Schools that Require the SAT Essay

• All of the University of California schools
• Benedictine University
• City University London
• Delaware State University
• DeSales University
• Dominican University of California
• Florida Agricultural and Mechanical University
• Howard University
• John Wesley University
• Kentucky State University
• Martin Luther College
• Molloy College
• Schreiner University
• Soka University of America
• Southern California Institute of Architecture
• Texas A&M University—Galveston
• United States Military Academy (West Point)
• University of North Texas
• West Virginia University Institute of Technology
• Western Carolina University

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Additionally, these schools do not require the SAT Essay but recommend it.

Schools that Recommend the SAT Essay

• Abilene Christian University
• Albany College of Pharmacy and Health Sciences
• Allegheny College
• Amherst College
• Art Institute of Houston
• Augsburg University
• Austin College
• Caldwell University
• California State University, Northridge
• Central Connecticut State University
• Central Michigan University
• Cheyney University of Pennsylvania
• Coastal Carolina University
• Colby College
• College of Wooster
• Colorado School of Mines
• Cooper Union for the Advancement of Science and Art
• Corban University
• Cornerstone University
• Dallas Christian College
• Duke University
• Eastern Illinois University
• Eastern Nazarene College
• Easternn University
• Endicott College
• Five Towns College
• Gallaudet University
• George Washington University
• Georgia Highlands College
• Greenville University
• Gwynedd Mercy University
• High Point University
• Hofstra University
• Holy Family University
• Husson University
• Indiana University South Bend
• Indiana University Southeast
• Indiana Wesleyan University
• Inter American University of Puerto Rico: Barranquitas Campus
• Juilliard School
• Keiser University (West Palm Beach)
• Lehigh University
• Madonna University
• Manhattan College
• Marymount California University
• Massachusetts Maritime Academy
• McMurry University
• Mercy College
• Modern College of Design
• Montana Tech of the University of Montana
• Morehouse College
• Mount Saint Mary College
• Mount St. Joseph University
• National-Louis University
• New Jersey City University
• Nichols College
• North Park University
• Occidental College
• Ohio University
• Oregon State University
• Purdue University Northwest
• Randall University
• Randolph-Macon College
• Reading Area Community College
• Rowan University
• Rutgers University—Camden Campus
• Rutgers University—Newark Campus
• Saint Michael’s College
• Seton Hill University
• Shiloh University
• Shippensburg University of Pennsylvania
• Silver Lake College of the Holy Family
• Southern Illinois University of Carbondale
• Southern Oregon University
• Spring Hill College
• Sul Ross State University
• SUNY Farmingdale State College
• SUNY University at Stony Brook
• Tarleton State University
• Texas A&M International University
• Texas A&M University
• Texas State University
• The King’s College
• United States Air Force Academy
• University of Evansville
• University of La Verne
• University of Mary Hardin—Baylor
• University of Massachusetts Amherst
• University of Minnesota: Twin Cities
• University of New England
• University of Northwestern—St. Paul
• University of the Virgin Islands
• University of Toledo
• University of Washington Bothell
• VanderCook College of Music
• Virginia Union University
• Wabash College
• Webb Institute
• Webber International University
• Wesleyan College
• William Jewell College

Should You Take the SAT Essay Section?

We recommend taking the Essay section just in case you want to apply to one of the schools that requires or recommends it. If you’re absolutely sure you won’t apply to any of these schools, you can skip it. Just know that you can’t retake the SAT essay alone, so if you change your mind and want to apply to a school that requires the Essay section, you’ll have to retake the whole test.

How Is the SAT Essay Scored?

Your essay will be evaluated on three criteria—Reading, Analysis, and Writing.

The Reading grade is meant to gauge how well you understand the passage content. Did you absorb the information you just read? Especially when the details are not intuitive, your readers will be checking to see that you read closely and caught the nuance of the piece.

The Analysis score relates to how well you represented the argument that the writer made. Your goal in the Essay section should be to determine what the writer’s main argument is and describe how they present it. 

Finally, your score in Writing reflects your own command over the English language. Your capacity to write clear, well-structured sentences that use a wide range of vocabulary will determine this grade.

Two readers each give the essay a score between 1 and 4, depending on how well each reader thinks you did in the three categories. Their grades are then summed to give you a three-part grade. The highest grade you can receive is 8, 8, 8, while the lowest possible score is 2, 2, 2. To give an example, one student may score a 5, 4, 4, which would mean that their readers submitted the following feedback:

What’s a Good, Average, and Bad SAT Essay Score?

In 2019, the mean score on the Reading and Writing for the SAT Essay was a 5. For the Analysis section, the mean score was a little lower at 3, simply because Analysis is a skill that high school students spend less time honing than Reading or Writing.

For a detailed breakdown of how 2019’s test takers performed, here are a few score distributions:

Here’s a rough breakdown of the percentile scores based on the most recent College Board data. Here’s how this chart works: say you scored a 6 on the Reading section. According to the data, that means that you performed better than 70% of other essay writers.

SAT Essay Score Percentile Rankings

Source: College Board and CollegeVine data analysis

How Should You Understand and Improve Your SAT Essay Score?

Unless your SAT Essay score is rock-bottom, you should not feel the need to retest just to improve your Essay score. If you received a low score that you feel isn’t representative of your writing abilities, focus on crafting stellar college essays instead of retaking the SAT just for the Essay section.

If you were unhappy with your SAT Essay score AND your overall SAT score, however, then you should consider retaking the test with the Essay section. 

Here are a few tips on how to improve your SAT Essay score:

1. Annotate the passage. Read carefully. Start by boxing the main argument of the passage, then put a star next to three or four places where the author employs a strategy to win the readers over. These may include:

• Refuting a counter argument
• Raising a question
• Providing anecdotal evidence
• Using statistics to support a claim
• Citing historical examples
• Employing rhetorical devices, such as metaphor

2. State the main point of the passage author. Make it clear that you understand what the author is trying to say by stating their thesis clearly in your essay response. No one reading your essay should have any doubt as to what you think the main point of the passage is.

Make the author’s thesis clear at the beginning of your response as well as in your concluding paragraph. Tie back to it often within your body paragraphs too.

3. Outline before you write. Spend 3-5 minutes organizing your thoughts. Build up 2-4 points about the argument’s structure. Think of yourself as a debate coach. Give feedback on the persuasion tactics the author used. Which ones were most effective? What could they have done to sway their audience even more?

Remembered the strategies you starred when you were annotating? These are the building blocks of the author’s argument, and your essay should provide analysis of how effectively these building blocks were used.

4. DO NOT include your personal opinion. The essay exists to assess whether you can analyze an argument. It has nothing to do with your personal views. If you find yourself defending or disagreeing with the passage, that is a good sign that you are missing a chance to analyze the argument’s structure.

5. Proofread your essay. Give yourself 2 minutes towards the end of the section to improve the language you used. Search for spelling and grammar mistakes, as well as weak word choice. Replace monosyllabic words like “good” and “is” with more dynamic vocabulary, such as “striking” or “constitutes.” This is a quick and easy way to boost your Writing score.

For more advice on how to study for the Essay section, check out our How to Get a Perfect Score on the SAT Essay and The Ultimate Guide to the New SAT Essay .

Want to know how your SAT score impacts your chances of acceptance to your dream schools? Our free Chancing Engine will not only help you predict your odds, but also let you know how you stack up against other applicants, and which aspects of your profile to improve. Sign up for your free CollegeVine account today to gain access to our Chancing Engine and get a jumpstart on your college strategy!

Related CollegeVine Blog Posts

SAT Essay Scores Explained

On january 19th, 2021, college board announced that they will no longer administer the sat subject tests in the u.s. and that the essay would be retired. read our blog post  to understand what this means in the near term and what the college board has in store for students down the road., our articles on subject tests and the sat essay will remain on our site for reference purposes as colleges and students transition to a revised testing landscape..

Why are there no percentiles for the essay on an SAT score report?

No percentiles or norms are provided in student reports. Even colleges do not receive any summary statistics. Given Compass’ concerns about the inaccuracy of essay scoring and the notable failures of the ACT on that front, the de-emphasis of norms would seem to be a good thing. The problem is that 10% of colleges are sticking with the SAT Essay as an admission requirement . While those colleges will not receive score distribution reports from the College Board, it is not difficult for them to construct their own statistics—officially or unofficially—based on thousands of applicants. Colleges can determine a “good score,” but students cannot. This asymmetry of information is harmful to students, as they are left to speculate how well they have performed and how their scores will be interpreted. Through our analysis, Compass hopes to provide students and parents more context for evaluating SAT Essay scores.

How has scoring changed? Is it still part of a student’s Total Score?

On the old SAT, the essay was a required component of the Writing section and made up approximately one-third of a student’s 200–800 score. The essay score itself was simply the sum (2–12) of two readers’ 1–6 scores. Readers were expected to grade holistically and not to focus on individual components of the writing. The SAT essay came under a great deal of criticism for being too loosely structured. Factual accuracy was not required; it was not that difficult to make pre-fabricated material fit the prompt; many colleges found the 2–12 essay scores of little use; and the conflation of the essay and “Writing” was, in some cases, blocking the use of the SAT Writing score—which included grammar and usage—entirely.

With the 2016 overhaul of the SAT came an attempt to make the essay more academically defensible while also making it optional (as the ACT essay had long been). The essay score is not a part of the 400–1600 score. Instead, a student opting to take the SAT Essay receives 2–8 scores in three dimensions: reading, analysis, and writing. No equating or fancy lookup table is involved. The scores are simply the sum of two readers’ 1–4 ratings in each dimension. There is no official totaling or averaging of scores, although colleges may choose to do so.

Readers avoid extremes

What is almost universally true about grading of standardized test essays is that readers gravitate to the middle of the scale. The default instinct is to nudge a score above or below a perceived cutoff or midpoint rather than to evenly distribute scores. When the only options are 1, 2, 3, or 4, the consequence is predictable—readers give out a lot of 2s and 3s and very few 1s and 4s. In fact, our analysis shows that 80% of all reader scores are 2s or 3s. This, in turn, means that most of the dimension scores (the sum of the two readers) range from 4 to 6. Analysis scores are outliers. A third of readers give essays a 1 in Analysis. Below is the distribution of reader scores across all dimensions.

What is a good SAT Essay score?

By combining multiple data sources—including extensive College Board scoring information—Compass has estimated the mean and mode (most common) essay scores for students at various score levels. We also found that the reading and writing dimensions were similar, while analysis scores lagged by a point across all sub-groups. These figures should not be viewed as cutoffs for “good” scores. The loose correlation of essay score to Total Score and the high standard deviation of essay scores means that students at all levels see wide variation of scores. The average essay-taking student scores a 1,080 on the SAT and receives just under a 5/4/5.

College Board recently released essay results for the class of 2017, so score distributions are now available. From these, percentiles can also be calculated. We provide these figures with mixed feelings. On the one hand, percentile scores on such an imperfect measure can be highly misleading. On the other hand, we feel that students should understand the full workings of essay scores.

The role of luck

What is frustrating to many students on the SAT and ACT is that they can score 98th percentile in most areas and then get a “middling” score on the essay. This result is actually quite predictable. Whereas math and verbal scores are the result of dozens of objective questions, the essay is a single question graded subjectively. To replace statistical concepts with a colloquial one—far more “luck” is involved than on the multiple-choice sections. What text is used in the essay stimulus? How well will the student respond to the style and subject matter? Which of the hundreds of readers were assigned to grade the student’s essay? What other essays has the reader recently scored?

Even good writers run into the unpredictability involved and the fact that essay readers give so few high scores. A 5 means that the Readers A and B gave the essay a 2 and a 3, respectively. Which reader was “right?” If the essay had encountered two readers like Reader A, it would have received a 4. If the essay had been given two readers like Reader B, it would have received a 6. That swing makes a large difference if we judge scores exclusively by percentiles, but essay scores are simply too blurry to make such cut-and-dry distinctions. More than 80% of students receive one of three scores—4, 5, or 6 on the reading and writing dimensions and 3, 4, or 5 on analysis.

What do colleges expect?

It’s unlikely that many colleges will release a breakdown of essay scores for admitted students—especially since so few are requiring it. What we know from experience with the ACT , though, is that even at the most competitive schools in the country, the 25th–75th percentile scores of admitted students were 8–10 on the ACT’s old 2–12 score range. We expect that things will play out similarly for the SAT and that most students admitted to highly selective colleges will have domain scores in the 5–7 range (possibly closer to 4–6 for analysis). It’s even less likely for students to average a high score across all three areas than it is to obtain a single high mark. We estimate that only a fraction of a percent of students will average an 8—for example [8/8/8, 7/8/8, 8/7/8, or 8,8,7].

Update as of October 2017. The University of California system has published the 25th–75th percentile ranges for enrolled students. It has chosen to work with total scores. The highest ranges—including those at UCLA and Berkeley—are 17–20. Those scores are inline with our estimates above.

How will colleges use the domain scores?

Colleges have been given no guidance by College Board on how to use essay scores for admission. Will they sum the scores? Will they average them? Will they value certain areas over others? Chances are that if you are worrying too much about those questions, then you are likely losing sight of the bigger picture. We know of no cases where admission committees will make formulaic use of essay scores. The scores are a very small, very error-prone part of a student’s testing portfolio.

How low is too low?

Are 3s and 4s, then, low enough that an otherwise high-scoring student should retest? There is no one-size-fits-all answer to that question. In general, it is a mistake to retest solely to improve an essay score unless a student is confident that the SAT Total Score can be maintained or improved. A student with a 1340 PSAT and 1280 SAT may feel that it is worthwhile to bring up low essay scores because she has previously shown that she can do better on the Evidence-based Reading and Writing and Math, as well. A student with a 1400 PSAT and 1540 SAT should think long and hard before committing to a retest. Admission results from the class of 2017 may give us some added insight into the use of SAT Essay scores.

Will colleges continue to require the SAT Essay?

For the class of 2017, Compass has prepared a list of the SAT Essay and ACT Writing policies for 360 of the top colleges . Several of the largest and most prestigious public university systems—California, Michigan, and Texas, for example, still require the essay, and a number of highly competitive private colleges do the same—for example, Dartmouth, Harvard, Princeton, and Stanford.

The number of excellent colleges not requiring the SAT Essay, though, is long and getting longer. Compass expects even more colleges to drop the essay requirement for the classes of 2018 and 2019. Policies are typically finalized in late spring or during the summer.

Should I skip the essay entirely?

A common question regarding SAT scores is whether the whole mess can be avoided by skipping the essay. After all, if only about 10% of colleges are requiring the section, is it really that important? Despite serious misgivings about the test and the ways scores are interpreted, Compass still recommends that most students take the essay unless they are certain that they will not be applying to any of the colleges requiring or recommending it. Nationally, about 70% of students choose to take the essay on at least one SAT administration. When looking at higher scoring segments, that quickly rises to 85–90%. Almost all Compass students take the SAT Essay at least once to insure that they do not miss out on educational opportunities.

Should I prepare for the SAT Essay?

Most Compass students decide to do some preparation for the essay, because taking any part of a test “cold” can be an unpleasant experience, and students want to avoid feeling like a retake is necessary. In addition to practicing exercises and tests, most students can perform well enough on the SAT Essay after 1–2 hours of tutoring. Students taking a Compass practice SAT will also receive a scored essay. Students interested in essay writing tips for the SAT can refer to Compass blog posts on the difference between the ACT and SAT tasks  and the use of first person on the essays .

Will I be able to see my essay?

Yes. ACT makes it difficult to obtain a copy of your Writing essay, but College Board includes it as part of your online report.

Will colleges have access to my essay? Even if they don’t require it?

Yes, colleges are provided with student essays. We know of very few circumstances where SAT Essay reading is regularly conducted. Colleges that do not require the SAT Essay fall into the “consider” and “do not consider” camps. Schools do not always list this policy on their website or in their application materials, so it is hard to have a comprehensive list. We recommend contacting colleges for more information. In general, the essay will have little to no impact at colleges that do not require or recommend it.

Is the SAT Essay a reason to take the ACT instead?

Almost all colleges that require the SAT Essay require Writing for ACT-takers. The essays are very different on the two tests, but neither can be said to be universally “easier” or “harder.” Compass recommends that the primary sections of the tests determine your planning. Compass’ content experts have also written a piece on how to attack the ACT essay .

Key links in this post:

ACT and SAT essay requirements ACT Writing scores explained Comparing ACT and SAT essay tasks The use of first person in ACT and SAT essays Understanding the “audience and purpose” of the ACT essay Compass proctored practice testing for the ACT, SAT, and Subject Tests

About Art Sawyer

Art graduated magna cum laude from Harvard University, where he was the top-ranked liberal arts student in his class. Art pioneered the one-on-one approach to test prep in California in 1989 and co-founded Compass Education Group in 2004 in order to bring the best ideas and tutors into students' homes and computers. Although he has attained perfect scores on all flavors of the SAT and ACT, he is routinely beaten in backgammon.

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Hi! I’m a high school junior who took the October and November SATs. I got a 1500 on October and then retook it to get a 1590 in November. I’m very happy with my score, but my essays are troubling me. I got a 6-4-6 in October and thought I would improve in November, but I got a 6-3-6. I really cannot improve my actual SAT score, but I don’t understand the essay. I’ve always been a good writer and have consistently been praised for it in English class and outside of class. Is this essay score indicative of my writing skill? And will this essay hurt my chances at Ivy League and other top tier schools? None of the schools I plan on applying to require it, but, since I have to submit it, will it hurt my chances? Thank you so much.

Maya, The essay is becoming increasingly irrelevant. Honestly, a 6-4-6 is a fine score and will not hurt your chances for admission. It’s something of an odd writing task, so I wouldn’t worry that it doesn’t match your writing skills elsewhere.

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Choose Your Test

Sat / act prep online guides and tips, which colleges require the sat essay complete list.

SAT Logistics , SAT Essay

Planning to take the SAT? Before you sign up, you need to decide whether you're going to take the test with or without the optional Essay . How should you pick? Well, some colleges require that you apply with the SAT with Essay; others don't care whether you submit an SAT score with or without the Essay.

In this article, I'll provide you with a complete list of colleges that require or recommend taking the SAT with the Essay .

UPDATE: SAT Essay No Longer Offered

In January 2021, the College Board announced that after June 2021, it would no longer offer the Essay portion of the SAT (except at schools who opt in during School Day Testing). It is now no longer possible to take the SAT Essay, unless your school is one of the small number who choose to offer it during SAT School Day Testing.

While most colleges had already made SAT Essay scores optional, this move by the College Board means no colleges now require the SAT Essay. It will also likely lead to additional college application changes such not looking at essay scores at all for the SAT or ACT, as well as potentially requiring additional writing samples for placement.

What does the end of the SAT Essay mean for your college applications? Check out our article on the College Board's SAT Essay decision for everything you need to know.

What Is the Optional SAT Essay?

The redesigned SAT debuted in March 2016 with a now-optional Essay section. For the Essay, you have 50 minutes to read a passage (similar to those you see on the Reading section ) and write an essay dissecting how the author made the argument . Did the author use evidence to support the main claim? Appeals to emotion? Specific word choice?

If you take the SAT without Essay, the test length is three hours . However, if you take the SAT with Essay, the optional Essay adds 50 minutes . It also costs more to take the SAT with Essay : $64.50 vs $49.50 without the Essay.

Don't automatically assume you must take the Essay. Whether it's important for you depends on which schools (and scholarships) you're applying to and what the rest of your application looks like. I'll go into more depth later about how to decide which version of the SAT to take.

List of Schools That Require the SAT With Essay

Below, I've compiled a list of colleges that require or recommend taking the SAT with Essay. All data comes from the College Board and some individual schools we consulted separately.

Note: This list is subject to change, so make sure to double-check with each school you're applying to.

Surprisingly (and in contrast to how it's been in the past), top schools mostly do not require the SAT essay . Currently, no Ivy League School requires students to take the SAT with Essay; the same is true for Stanford, Caltech, Duke, Georgetown, Johns Hopkins, MIT, Northwestern, NYU, and UChicago. Many of these schools no longer even recommend students to take the SAT with Essay, which is a huge turnaround from just a couple of years ago.

Similarly, most liberal arts colleges do not require or recommend the SAT with Essay ; however, there are some exceptions, such as Soka University, which does require it.

In general, most state schools also do not require the SAT with Essay, though there's still a significant portion that do. There tends to be some weird variance even within states. For example, all University of California schools require the SAT with Essay, but most of the California State University schools do not.

Regardless of the types of schools you're applying to, don't assume that they all ask for the SAT with Essay . Check with every school to make sure you understand their testing requirements.

How to Decide Whether to Take the SAT Essay: 4 Questions

When making your decision about whether to take the SAT with Essay or the SAT without Essay, you'll need to consider the following four questions.

#1: Do Any Schools I Want to Apply to Require the SAT Essay?

If you're applying to any school that requires the Essay, then you must take the SAT with Essay . If you take the SAT without Essay, your application will be incomplete and you won't get admitted. By contrast, if you apply to any schools that don't require the SAT Essay, you can still take the SAT with Essay since these schools will accept both types of SAT scores (with or without Essay).

To reiterate, colleges that require the SAT Essay won't consider your score if you took the SAT without the Essay . The last thing you want to do is take the SAT without the Essay and get a good score—but then find out that one of your target schools requires you to take the SAT with Essay.

Remember that some colleges change their application policies from year to year, so make sure to double-check the testing policies of the schools you're applying to .

#2: Do Any Schools I Want to Apply to Recommend the SAT Essay?

If you're not applying to any schools that require the SAT Essay section but are applying to some that recommend it, then I'd still suggest taking it . This gives you another dimension schools can use to evaluate your application; however, there are some cases in which you shouldn't take the SAT with Essay.

If, for some reason, you do not qualify for SAT fee waivers and paying the extra cost to take the SAT with Essay would be a financial burden to you , then please don't feel as if you have to take it. In this case, it's fine to take the SAT without Essay instead.

In addition, if you really struggle to write essays under time constraints (due to anxiety), you might want to opt out of the Essay . That said, I only recommend this for students who normally have strong English and writing skills but struggle to write coherent essays when there's the added pressure of a time constraint.

For example, do you get As on essays you can work on at home but Cs on in-class essays because you get easily nervous? If that's the case, taking the SAT with Essay might not be a good idea.

#3: Am I Applying to Any Scholarships That Require an SAT With Essay Score?

Many scholarships (such as National Merit ) require you to submit SAT scores , and some specifically want SAT with Essay scores.

Therefore, be sure to check the requirements of each scholarship you're planning on applying for . While scholarships that don't require or recommend the SAT Essay should still accept your SAT with Essay score, scholarships that require the Essay section will not consider your SAT score if you took the no-essay version .

#4: Will the SAT Essay Enhance My Application in Other Ways?

Generally speaking, taking the SAT Essay if it's not required won't add a lot to your application. In truth, colleges that don't recommend or require the Essay really don't pay much attention to it.

Nevertheless, the Essay might be helpful for international students who want to prove they have strong English skills and who think they'll do especially well on it. If you fall into this category and feel confident you'll get a high score on it ( after doing practice essays , for example), definitely consider taking the SAT with Essay.

On the other hand, if you don't think you'll do well on the Essay, I recommend against taking it.

What's Next?

Need help preparing for the SAT? Read our ultimate study guide to get expert tips on prep and access to the best free online resources. If you're taking the test soon, learn how to cram for the SAT .

Want to learn more about the SAT Essay? Check out our step-by-step guide to writing a great essay .

Not sure where you want to go to college? Learn how to do college research right and figure out your SAT target score .

Ready to go beyond just reading about the SAT? Then you'll love the free five-day trial for our SAT Complete Prep program . Designed and written by PrepScholar SAT experts , our SAT program customizes to your skill level in over 40 subskills so that you can focus your studying on what will get you the biggest score gains.

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As an SAT/ACT tutor, Dora has guided many students to test prep success. She loves watching students succeed and is committed to helping you get there. Dora received a full-tuition merit based scholarship to University of Southern California. She graduated magna cum laude and scored in the 99th percentile on the ACT. She is also passionate about acting, writing, and photography.

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Annie Jacobsen: 'What if we had a nuclear war?’

The author and Pulitzer prize finalist, who has written the latest pick for the New Scientist Book Club, Nuclear War: A scenario, on the "shocking truths" about a nuclear attack

By Annie Jacobsen

12 April 2024

The Titan nuclear missile in the silo in Arizona, US

Michael Dunning/Getty Images

Not long after the last world war, the historian William L. Shirer had this to say about the next world war. It “will be launched by suicidal little madmen pressing an electronic button. Such a war will not last long and none will ever follow it. There will be no conquers and no conquests, but only the charred bones of the dead on an uninhabited planet.”

As an investigative journalist, I write about war, weapons, national security and government secrets. I’ve previously written six books about US military and intelligence programmes – at the CIA, The Pentagon, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency– all designed to prevent, or deter, nuclear world war III . In the course of my work, countless people in the upper echelons of US government have told me, proudly, that they’ve dedicated their lives to making sure the US never has a nuclear war. But what if it did?

“Every capability in the [Department of Defense] is underpinned by the fact that strategic deterrence will hold,” US Strategic Command (STRATCOM), which is responsible for nuclear deterrence, insists publicly. Until the autumn of 2022, this promise was pinned on STRATCOM’s public Twitter feed. But to a private audience at Sandia National Laboratories later that same year, STRATCOM’s Thomas Bussiere admitted the existential danger inherent to deterrence. “Everything unravels itself if those things are not true.”

If deterrence fails – what exactly would that unravelling look like? To write Nuclear War: A scenario , I put this question to scores of former nuclear command and control authorities. To the military and civilian experts who’ve built the weapon systems, been privy to the response plans and been responsible for advising the US president on nuclear counterstrike decisions should they have to be made. What I learned terrified me. Here are just a few of the shocking truths about nuclear war.

The US maintains a nuclear launch policy called Launch on Warning. This means that if a military satellite indicates the nation is under nuclear attack and a second early-warning radar confirms that information, the president launches nuclear missiles in response. Former secretary of defense William Perry told me: “Once we are warned of a nuclear attack, we prepare to launch. This is policy. We do not wait.”

The US president has sole authority to launch nuclear weapons. He asks permission of no one. Not the secretary of defense, not the chairman of the joint chief of staff, not the US Congress. “The authority is inherent in his role as commander in chief,” the Congressional Research Service confirms. The president “does not need the concurrence of either his [or her] military advisors or the US Congress to order the launch of nuclear weapons”.

When the president learns he must respond to a nuclear attack, he has just 6 minutes to do so. Six minutes is an irrational amount of time to “decide whether to release Armageddon”, President Ronald Reagan lamented in his memoirs. “Six minutes to decide how to respond to a blip on a radar scope… How could anyone apply reason at a time like that?” And yet, the president must respond. This is because it takes roughly just 30 minutes for an intercontinental ballistic missile to get from a launch pad in Russia, North Korea or China to any city in the US, and vice versa. Nuclear-armed submarines can cut that launch-to-target time to 10 minutes, or less.

Today, there are nine nuclear powers, with a combined total of more than 12,500 nuclear weapons ready to be used. The US and Russia each have some 1700 nuclear weapons deployed – weapons that can be launched in seconds or minutes after their respective president gives the command. This is what Shirer meant when he said: “Such a war will not last long and none will ever follow it.”

Nuclear war is the only scenario other than an asteroid strike that could end civilisation in a matter of hours. The soot from burning cities and forests will blot out the sun and cause nuclear winter. Agriculture will fail. Some 5 billion people will die. In the words of former Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev, “the survivors will envy the dead”.

I wrote Nuclear War: A scenario to demonstrate – in appalling, minute-by-minute detail – just how horrifying a nuclear war would be. “Humanity is one misunderstanding, one miscalculation away from nuclear annihilation,” UN secretary-general António Guterres warned the world in 2022. “This is madness. We must reverse course.”

Nuclear War: A Scenario   by Annie Jacobsen, published by Torva (£20.00), is available now. It is the latest pick for the New Scientist Book Club: sign up  here  to read along with our members

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What is the cut at the Masters?

Scottie Scheffler hits his tee shot on the third tee box during the first round of Masters Tournament. (Ben Jared/PGA TOUR)

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AUGUSTA, Ga. – The 36-hole cut at the Masters is different than any other major championship. The 89-man field will be cut to the low 50 and ties after 36 holes is completed.

Thursday’s first round was suspended due to darkness after the start of play was delayed more than two hours by morning storms. The second round is expected to begin on schedule at 8 a.m., however.

The cut was first instituted in 1957, 23 years after the Masters began. The field was cut to the low 40 and ties from 1957-61, but the cut changed the next year with the institution of the 10-shot rule. From 1962-2012, the field was cut to the low 44 and ties, as well as anyone within 10 strokes of the leader.

Over the following seven years, the 36-hole cut was expanded to the low 50 and ties, as well as anyone within 10 strokes of the leader. The 10-shot rule was done away with in 2020, however, and now the low 50 and ties qualify for the final 36 holes at the Masters.