example of hypothesis biology

Hypothesis n., plural: hypotheses [/haɪˈpɑːθəsɪs/] Definition: Testable scientific prediction

Table of Contents

What Is Hypothesis?

A scientific hypothesis is a foundational element of the scientific method . It’s a testable statement proposing a potential explanation for natural phenomena. The term hypothesis means “little theory” . A hypothesis is a short statement that can be tested and gives a possible reason for a phenomenon or a possible link between two variables . In the setting of scientific research, a hypothesis is a tentative explanation or statement that can be proven wrong and is used to guide experiments and empirical research.

It is an important part of the scientific method because it gives a basis for planning tests, gathering data, and judging evidence to see if it is true and could help us understand how natural things work. Several hypotheses can be tested in the real world, and the results of careful and systematic observation and analysis can be used to support, reject, or improve them.

Researchers and scientists often use the word hypothesis to refer to this educated guess . These hypotheses are firmly established based on scientific principles and the rigorous testing of new technology and experiments .

For example, in astrophysics, the Big Bang Theory is a working hypothesis that explains the origins of the universe and considers it as a natural phenomenon. It is among the most prominent scientific hypotheses in the field.

“The scientific method: steps, terms, and examples” by Scishow:

Biology definition: A hypothesis  is a supposition or tentative explanation for (a group of) phenomena, (a set of) facts, or a scientific inquiry that may be tested, verified or answered by further investigation or methodological experiment. It is like a scientific guess . It’s an idea or prediction that scientists make before they do experiments. They use it to guess what might happen and then test it to see if they were right. It’s like a smart guess that helps them learn new things. A scientific hypothesis that has been verified through scientific experiment and research may well be considered a scientific theory .

Etymology: The word “hypothesis” comes from the Greek word “hupothesis,” which means “a basis” or “a supposition.” It combines “hupo” (under) and “thesis” (placing). Synonym:   proposition; assumption; conjecture; postulate Compare:   theory See also: null hypothesis

Characteristics Of Hypothesis

A useful hypothesis must have the following qualities:

• It should never be written as a question.
• You should be able to test it in the real world to see if it’s right or wrong.
• It needs to be clear and exact.
• It should list the factors that will be used to figure out the relationship.
• It should only talk about one thing. You can make a theory in either a descriptive or form of relationship.
• It shouldn’t go against any natural rule that everyone knows is true. Verification will be done well with the tools and methods that are available.
• It should be written in as simple a way as possible so that everyone can understand it.
• It must explain what happened to make an answer necessary.
• It should be testable in a fair amount of time.
• It shouldn’t say different things.

Sources Of Hypothesis

Sources of hypothesis are:

• Patterns of similarity between the phenomenon under investigation and existing hypotheses.
• Insights derived from prior research, concurrent observations, and insights from opposing perspectives.
• The formulations are derived from accepted scientific theories and proposed by researchers.
• In research, it’s essential to consider hypothesis as different subject areas may require various hypotheses (plural form of hypothesis). Researchers also establish a significance level to determine the strength of evidence supporting a hypothesis.
• Individual cognitive processes also contribute to the formation of hypotheses.

One hypothesis is a tentative explanation for an observation or phenomenon. It is based on prior knowledge and understanding of the world, and it can be tested by gathering and analyzing data. Observed facts are the data that are collected to test a hypothesis. They can support or refute the hypothesis.

For example, the hypothesis that “eating more fruits and vegetables will improve your health” can be tested by gathering data on the health of people who eat different amounts of fruits and vegetables. If the people who eat more fruits and vegetables are healthier than those who eat less fruits and vegetables, then the hypothesis is supported.

Hypotheses are essential for scientific inquiry. They help scientists to focus their research, to design experiments, and to interpret their results. They are also essential for the development of scientific theories.

Types Of Hypothesis

In research, you typically encounter two types of hypothesis: the alternative hypothesis (which proposes a relationship between variables) and the null hypothesis (which suggests no relationship).

Simple Hypothesis

It illustrates the association between one dependent variable and one independent variable. For instance, if you consume more vegetables, you will lose weight more quickly. Here, increasing vegetable consumption is the independent variable, while weight loss is the dependent variable.

Complex Hypothesis

It exhibits the relationship between at least two dependent variables and at least two independent variables. Eating more vegetables and fruits results in weight loss, radiant skin, and a decreased risk of numerous diseases, including heart disease.

Directional Hypothesis

It shows that a researcher wants to reach a certain goal. The way the factors are related can also tell us about their nature. For example, four-year-old children who eat well over a time of five years have a higher IQ than children who don’t eat well. This shows what happened and how it happened.

Non-directional Hypothesis

When there is no theory involved, it is used. It is a statement that there is a connection between two variables, but it doesn’t say what that relationship is or which way it goes.

Null Hypothesis

It says something that goes against the theory. It’s a statement that says something is not true, and there is no link between the independent and dependent factors. “H 0 ” represents the null hypothesis.

Associative and Causal Hypothesis

When a change in one variable causes a change in the other variable, this is called the associative hypothesis . The causal hypothesis, on the other hand, says that there is a cause-and-effect relationship between two or more factors.

Examples Of Hypothesis

Examples of simple hypotheses:

• Students who consume breakfast before taking a math test will have a better overall performance than students who do not consume breakfast.
• Students who experience test anxiety before an English examination will get lower scores than students who do not experience test anxiety.
• Motorists who talk on the phone while driving will be more likely to make errors on a driving course than those who do not talk on the phone, is a statement that suggests that drivers who talk on the phone while driving are more likely to make mistakes.

Examples of a complex hypothesis:

• Individuals who consume a lot of sugar and don’t get much exercise are at an increased risk of developing depression.
• Younger people who are routinely exposed to green, outdoor areas have better subjective well-being than older adults who have limited exposure to green spaces, according to a new study.
• Increased levels of air pollution led to higher rates of respiratory illnesses, which in turn resulted in increased costs for healthcare for the affected communities.

Examples of Directional Hypothesis:

• The crop yield will go up a lot if the amount of fertilizer is increased.
• Patients who have surgery and are exposed to more stress will need more time to get better.
• Increasing the frequency of brand advertising on social media will lead to a significant increase in brand awareness among the target audience.

Examples of Non-Directional Hypothesis (or Two-Tailed Hypothesis):

• The test scores of two groups of students are very different from each other.
• There is a link between gender and being happy at work.
• There is a correlation between the amount of caffeine an individual consumes and the speed with which they react.

Examples of a null hypothesis:

• Children who receive a new reading intervention will have scores that are different than students who do not receive the intervention.
• The results of a memory recall test will not reveal any significant gap in performance between children and adults.
• There is not a significant relationship between the number of hours spent playing video games and academic performance.

Examples of Associative Hypothesis:

• There is a link between how many hours you spend studying and how well you do in school.
• Drinking sugary drinks is bad for your health as a whole.
• There is an association between socioeconomic status and access to quality healthcare services in urban neighborhoods.

Functions Of Hypothesis

The research issue can be understood better with the help of a hypothesis, which is why developing one is crucial. The following are some of the specific roles that a hypothesis plays: (Rashid, Apr 20, 2022)

• A hypothesis gives a study a point of concentration. It enlightens us as to the specific characteristics of a study subject we need to look into.
• It instructs us on what data to acquire as well as what data we should not collect, giving the study a focal point .
• The development of a hypothesis improves objectivity since it enables the establishment of a focal point.
• A hypothesis makes it possible for us to contribute to the development of the theory. Because of this, we are in a position to definitively determine what is true and what is untrue .

How will Hypothesis help in the Scientific Method?

• The scientific method begins with observation and inquiry about the natural world when formulating research questions. Researchers can refine their observations and queries into specific, testable research questions with the aid of hypothesis. They provide an investigation with a focused starting point.
• Hypothesis generate specific predictions regarding the expected outcomes of experiments or observations. These forecasts are founded on the researcher’s current knowledge of the subject. They elucidate what researchers anticipate observing if the hypothesis is true.
• Hypothesis direct the design of experiments and data collection techniques. Researchers can use them to determine which variables to measure or manipulate, which data to obtain, and how to conduct systematic and controlled research.
• Following the formulation of a hypothesis and the design of an experiment, researchers collect data through observation, measurement, or experimentation. The collected data is used to verify the hypothesis’s predictions.
• Hypothesis establish the criteria for evaluating experiment results. The observed data are compared to the predictions generated by the hypothesis. This analysis helps determine whether empirical evidence supports or refutes the hypothesis.
• The results of experiments or observations are used to derive conclusions regarding the hypothesis. If the data support the predictions, then the hypothesis is supported. If this is not the case, the hypothesis may be revised or rejected, leading to the formulation of new queries and hypothesis.
• The scientific approach is iterative, resulting in new hypothesis and research issues from previous trials. This cycle of hypothesis generation, testing, and refining drives scientific progress.

Importance Of Hypothesis

• Hypothesis are testable statements that enable scientists to determine if their predictions are accurate. This assessment is essential to the scientific method, which is based on empirical evidence.
• Hypothesis serve as the foundation for designing experiments or data collection techniques. They can be used by researchers to develop protocols and procedures that will produce meaningful results.
• Hypothesis hold scientists accountable for their assertions. They establish expectations for what the research should reveal and enable others to assess the validity of the findings.
• Hypothesis aid in identifying the most important variables of a study. The variables can then be measured, manipulated, or analyzed to determine their relationships.
• Hypothesis assist researchers in allocating their resources efficiently. They ensure that time, money, and effort are spent investigating specific concerns, as opposed to exploring random concepts.
• Testing hypothesis contribute to the scientific body of knowledge. Whether or not a hypothesis is supported, the results contribute to our understanding of a phenomenon.
• Hypothesis can result in the creation of theories. When supported by substantive evidence, hypothesis can serve as the foundation for larger theoretical frameworks that explain complex phenomena.
• Beyond scientific research, hypothesis play a role in the solution of problems in a variety of domains. They enable professionals to make educated assumptions about the causes of problems and to devise solutions.

Research Hypotheses: Did you know that a hypothesis refers to an educated guess or prediction about the outcome of a research study?

It’s like a roadmap guiding researchers towards their destination of knowledge. Just like a compass points north, a well-crafted hypothesis points the way to valuable discoveries in the world of science and inquiry.

Choose the best answer. 

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Further Reading

• RNA-DNA World Hypothesis
• BYJU’S. (2023). Hypothesis. Retrieved 01 Septermber 2023, from https://byjus.com/physics/hypothesis/#sources-of-hypothesis
• Collegedunia. (2023). Hypothesis. Retrieved 1 September 2023, from https://collegedunia.com/exams/hypothesis-science-articleid-7026#d
• Hussain, D. J. (2022). Hypothesis. Retrieved 01 September 2023, from https://mmhapu.ac.in/doc/eContent/Management/JamesHusain/Research%20Hypothesis%20-Meaning,%20Nature%20&%20Importance-Characteristics%20of%20Good%20%20Hypothesis%20Sem2.pdf
• Media, D. (2023). Hypothesis in the Scientific Method. Retrieved 01 September 2023, from https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-a-hypothesis-2795239#toc-hypotheses-examples
• Rashid, M. H. A. (Apr 20, 2022). Research Methodology. Retrieved 01 September 2023, from https://limbd.org/hypothesis-definitions-functions-characteristics-types-errors-the-process-of-testing-a-hypothesis-hypotheses-in-qualitative-research/#:~:text=Functions%20of%20a%20Hypothesis%3A&text=Specifically%2C%20a%20hypothesis%20serves%20the,providing%20focus%20to%20the%20study.

©BiologyOnline.com. Content provided and moderated by Biology Online Editors.

Last updated on September 8th, 2023

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Methodology

• How to Write a Strong Hypothesis | Steps & Examples

How to Write a Strong Hypothesis | Steps & Examples

Published on May 6, 2022 by Shona McCombes . Revised on November 20, 2023.

A hypothesis is a statement that can be tested by scientific research. If you want to test a relationship between two or more variables, you need to write hypotheses before you start your experiment or data collection .

Example: Hypothesis

Daily apple consumption leads to fewer doctor’s visits.

Table of contents

What is a hypothesis, developing a hypothesis (with example), hypothesis examples, other interesting articles, frequently asked questions about writing hypotheses.

A hypothesis states your predictions about what your research will find. It is a tentative answer to your research question that has not yet been tested. For some research projects, you might have to write several hypotheses that address different aspects of your research question.

A hypothesis is not just a guess – it should be based on existing theories and knowledge. It also has to be testable, which means you can support or refute it through scientific research methods (such as experiments, observations and statistical analysis of data).

Variables in hypotheses

Hypotheses propose a relationship between two or more types of variables .

• An independent variable is something the researcher changes or controls.
• A dependent variable is something the researcher observes and measures.

If there are any control variables , extraneous variables , or confounding variables , be sure to jot those down as you go to minimize the chances that research bias  will affect your results.

In this example, the independent variable is exposure to the sun – the assumed cause . The dependent variable is the level of happiness – the assumed effect .

Prevent plagiarism. Run a free check.

Step 1. ask a question.

Writing a hypothesis begins with a research question that you want to answer. The question should be focused, specific, and researchable within the constraints of your project.

Step 2. Do some preliminary research

Your initial answer to the question should be based on what is already known about the topic. Look for theories and previous studies to help you form educated assumptions about what your research will find.

At this stage, you might construct a conceptual framework to ensure that you’re embarking on a relevant topic . This can also help you identify which variables you will study and what you think the relationships are between them. Sometimes, you’ll have to operationalize more complex constructs.

Step 3. Formulate your hypothesis

Now you should have some idea of what you expect to find. Write your initial answer to the question in a clear, concise sentence.

4. Refine your hypothesis

You need to make sure your hypothesis is specific and testable. There are various ways of phrasing a hypothesis, but all the terms you use should have clear definitions, and the hypothesis should contain:

• The relevant variables
• The specific group being studied
• The predicted outcome of the experiment or analysis

5. Phrase your hypothesis in three ways

To identify the variables, you can write a simple prediction in  if…then form. The first part of the sentence states the independent variable and the second part states the dependent variable.

In academic research, hypotheses are more commonly phrased in terms of correlations or effects, where you directly state the predicted relationship between variables.

If you are comparing two groups, the hypothesis can state what difference you expect to find between them.

6. Write a null hypothesis

If your research involves statistical hypothesis testing , you will also have to write a null hypothesis . The null hypothesis is the default position that there is no association between the variables. The null hypothesis is written as H 0 , while the alternative hypothesis is H 1 or H a .

• H 0 : The number of lectures attended by first-year students has no effect on their final exam scores.
• H 1 : The number of lectures attended by first-year students has a positive effect on their final exam scores.

If you want to know more about the research process , methodology , research bias , or statistics , make sure to check out some of our other articles with explanations and examples.

• Sampling methods
• Simple random sampling
• Stratified sampling
• Cluster sampling
• Likert scales
• Reproducibility

 Statistics

• Null hypothesis
• Statistical power
• Probability distribution
• Effect size
• Poisson distribution

Research bias

• Optimism bias
• Cognitive bias
• Implicit bias
• Hawthorne effect
• Anchoring bias
• Explicit bias

A hypothesis is not just a guess — it should be based on existing theories and knowledge. It also has to be testable, which means you can support or refute it through scientific research methods (such as experiments, observations and statistical analysis of data).

Null and alternative hypotheses are used in statistical hypothesis testing . The null hypothesis of a test always predicts no effect or no relationship between variables, while the alternative hypothesis states your research prediction of an effect or relationship.

Hypothesis testing is a formal procedure for investigating our ideas about the world using statistics. It is used by scientists to test specific predictions, called hypotheses , by calculating how likely it is that a pattern or relationship between variables could have arisen by chance.

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High school biology

Course: high school biology   >   unit 1.

• Biology overview
• Preparing to study biology
• What is life?
• The scientific method
• Data to justify experimental claims examples
• Scientific method and data analysis
• Introduction to experimental design
• Controlled experiments

Biology and the scientific method review

• Experimental design and bias

The nature of biology

Properties of life.

• Organization: Living things are highly organized (meaning they contain specialized, coordinated parts) and are made up of one or more cells .
• Metabolism: Living things must use energy and consume nutrients to carry out the chemical reactions that sustain life. The sum total of the biochemical reactions occurring in an organism is called its metabolism .
• Homeostasis : Living organisms regulate their internal environment to maintain the relatively narrow range of conditions needed for cell function.
• Growth : Living organisms undergo regulated growth. Individual cells become larger in size, and multicellular organisms accumulate many cells through cell division.
• Reproduction : Living organisms can reproduce themselves to create new organisms.
• Response : Living organisms respond to stimuli or changes in their environment.
• Evolution : Populations of living organisms can undergo evolution , meaning that the genetic makeup of a population may change over time.

Scientific methodology

Scientific method example: failure to toast.

• Observation: the toaster won't toast.
• Question: Why won't my toaster toast?
• Hypothesis: Maybe the outlet is broken.
• Prediction: If I plug the toaster into a different outlet, then it will toast the bread.
• Test of prediction: Plug the toaster into a different outlet and try again.
• Iteration time!

Experimental design

Reducing errors and bias.

• Having a large sample size in the experiment: This helps to account for any small differences among the test subjects that may provide unexpected results.
• Repeating experimental trials multiple times: Errors may result from slight differences in test subjects, or mistakes in methodology or data collection. Repeating trials helps reduce those effects.
• Including all data points: Sometimes it is tempting to throw away data points that are inconsistent with the proposed hypothesis. However, this makes for an inaccurate study! All data points need to be included, whether they support the hypothesis or not.
• Using placebos , when appropriate: Placebos prevent the test subjects from knowing whether they received a real therapeutic substance. This helps researchers determine whether a substance has a true effect.
• Implementing double-blind studies , when appropriate: Double-blind studies prevent researchers from knowing the status of a particular participant. This helps eliminate observer bias.

Communicating findings

Things to remember.

• A hypothesis is not necessarily the right explanation. Instead, it is a possible explanation that can be tested to see if it is likely correct, or if a new hypothesis needs to be made.
• Not all explanations can be considered a hypothesis. A hypothesis must be testable and falsifiable in order to be valid. For example, “The universe is beautiful" is not a good hypothesis, because there is no experiment that could test this statement and show it to be false.
• In most cases, the scientific method is an iterative process. In other words, it's a cycle rather than a straight line. The result of one experiment often becomes feedback that raises questions for more experimentation.
• Scientists use the word "theory" in a very different way than non-scientists. When many people say "I have a theory," they really mean "I have a guess." Scientific theories, on the other hand, are well-tested and highly reliable scientific explanations of natural phenomena. They unify many repeated observations and data collected from lots of experiments.

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Module 1: Introduction to Biology

Experiments and hypotheses, learning outcomes.

• Form a hypothesis and use it to design a scientific experiment

Now we’ll focus on the methods of scientific inquiry. Science often involves making observations and developing hypotheses. Experiments and further observations are often used to test the hypotheses.

A scientific experiment is a carefully organized procedure in which the scientist intervenes in a system to change something, then observes the result of the change. Scientific inquiry often involves doing experiments, though not always. For example, a scientist studying the mating behaviors of ladybugs might begin with detailed observations of ladybugs mating in their natural habitats. While this research may not be experimental, it is scientific: it involves careful and verifiable observation of the natural world. The same scientist might then treat some of the ladybugs with a hormone hypothesized to trigger mating and observe whether these ladybugs mated sooner or more often than untreated ones. This would qualify as an experiment because the scientist is now making a change in the system and observing the effects.

Forming a Hypothesis

When conducting scientific experiments, researchers develop hypotheses to guide experimental design. A hypothesis is a suggested explanation that is both testable and falsifiable. You must be able to test your hypothesis through observations and research, and it must be possible to prove your hypothesis false.

For example, Michael observes that maple trees lose their leaves in the fall. He might then propose a possible explanation for this observation: “cold weather causes maple trees to lose their leaves in the fall.” This statement is testable. He could grow maple trees in a warm enclosed environment such as a greenhouse and see if their leaves still dropped in the fall. The hypothesis is also falsifiable. If the leaves still dropped in the warm environment, then clearly temperature was not the main factor in causing maple leaves to drop in autumn.

In the Try It below, you can practice recognizing scientific hypotheses. As you consider each statement, try to think as a scientist would: can I test this hypothesis with observations or experiments? Is the statement falsifiable? If the answer to either of these questions is “no,” the statement is not a valid scientific hypothesis.

Practice Questions

Determine whether each following statement is a scientific hypothesis.

Air pollution from automobile exhaust can trigger symptoms in people with asthma.

• No. This statement is not testable or falsifiable.
• No. This statement is not testable.
• No. This statement is not falsifiable.
• Yes. This statement is testable and falsifiable.

Natural disasters, such as tornadoes, are punishments for bad thoughts and behaviors.

a: No. This statement is not testable or falsifiable. “Bad thoughts and behaviors” are excessively vague and subjective variables that would be impossible to measure or agree upon in a reliable way. The statement might be “falsifiable” if you came up with a counterexample: a “wicked” place that was not punished by a natural disaster. But some would question whether the people in that place were really wicked, and others would continue to predict that a natural disaster was bound to strike that place at some point. There is no reason to suspect that people’s immoral behavior affects the weather unless you bring up the intervention of a supernatural being, making this idea even harder to test.

Testing a Vaccine

Let’s examine the scientific process by discussing an actual scientific experiment conducted by researchers at the University of Washington. These researchers investigated whether a vaccine may reduce the incidence of the human papillomavirus (HPV). The experimental process and results were published in an article titled, “ A controlled trial of a human papillomavirus type 16 vaccine .”

Preliminary observations made by the researchers who conducted the HPV experiment are listed below:

• Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the most common sexually transmitted virus in the United States.
• There are about 40 different types of HPV. A significant number of people that have HPV are unaware of it because many of these viruses cause no symptoms.
• Some types of HPV can cause cervical cancer.
• About 4,000 women a year die of cervical cancer in the United States.

Practice Question

Researchers have developed a potential vaccine against HPV and want to test it. What is the first testable hypothesis that the researchers should study?

• HPV causes cervical cancer.
• People should not have unprotected sex with many partners.
• People who get the vaccine will not get HPV.
• The HPV vaccine will protect people against cancer.

Experimental Design

You’ve successfully identified a hypothesis for the University of Washington’s study on HPV: People who get the HPV vaccine will not get HPV.

The next step is to design an experiment that will test this hypothesis. There are several important factors to consider when designing a scientific experiment. First, scientific experiments must have an experimental group. This is the group that receives the experimental treatment necessary to address the hypothesis.

The experimental group receives the vaccine, but how can we know if the vaccine made a difference? Many things may change HPV infection rates in a group of people over time. To clearly show that the vaccine was effective in helping the experimental group, we need to include in our study an otherwise similar control group that does not get the treatment. We can then compare the two groups and determine if the vaccine made a difference. The control group shows us what happens in the absence of the factor under study.

However, the control group cannot get “nothing.” Instead, the control group often receives a placebo. A placebo is a procedure that has no expected therapeutic effect—such as giving a person a sugar pill or a shot containing only plain saline solution with no drug. Scientific studies have shown that the “placebo effect” can alter experimental results because when individuals are told that they are or are not being treated, this knowledge can alter their actions or their emotions, which can then alter the results of the experiment.

Moreover, if the doctor knows which group a patient is in, this can also influence the results of the experiment. Without saying so directly, the doctor may show—through body language or other subtle cues—their views about whether the patient is likely to get well. These errors can then alter the patient’s experience and change the results of the experiment. Therefore, many clinical studies are “double blind.” In these studies, neither the doctor nor the patient knows which group the patient is in until all experimental results have been collected.

Both placebo treatments and double-blind procedures are designed to prevent bias. Bias is any systematic error that makes a particular experimental outcome more or less likely. Errors can happen in any experiment: people make mistakes in measurement, instruments fail, computer glitches can alter data. But most such errors are random and don’t favor one outcome over another. Patients’ belief in a treatment can make it more likely to appear to “work.” Placebos and double-blind procedures are used to level the playing field so that both groups of study subjects are treated equally and share similar beliefs about their treatment.

The scientists who are researching the effectiveness of the HPV vaccine will test their hypothesis by separating 2,392 young women into two groups: the control group and the experimental group. Answer the following questions about these two groups.

• This group is given a placebo.
• This group is deliberately infected with HPV.
• This group is given nothing.
• This group is given the HPV vaccine.
• a: This group is given a placebo. A placebo will be a shot, just like the HPV vaccine, but it will have no active ingredient. It may change peoples’ thinking or behavior to have such a shot given to them, but it will not stimulate the immune systems of the subjects in the same way as predicted for the vaccine itself.
• d: This group is given the HPV vaccine. The experimental group will receive the HPV vaccine and researchers will then be able to see if it works, when compared to the control group.

Experimental Variables

A variable is a characteristic of a subject (in this case, of a person in the study) that can vary over time or among individuals. Sometimes a variable takes the form of a category, such as male or female; often a variable can be measured precisely, such as body height. Ideally, only one variable is different between the control group and the experimental group in a scientific experiment. Otherwise, the researchers will not be able to determine which variable caused any differences seen in the results. For example, imagine that the people in the control group were, on average, much more sexually active than the people in the experimental group. If, at the end of the experiment, the control group had a higher rate of HPV infection, could you confidently determine why? Maybe the experimental subjects were protected by the vaccine, but maybe they were protected by their low level of sexual contact.

To avoid this situation, experimenters make sure that their subject groups are as similar as possible in all variables except for the variable that is being tested in the experiment. This variable, or factor, will be deliberately changed in the experimental group. The one variable that is different between the two groups is called the independent variable. An independent variable is known or hypothesized to cause some outcome. Imagine an educational researcher investigating the effectiveness of a new teaching strategy in a classroom. The experimental group receives the new teaching strategy, while the control group receives the traditional strategy. It is the teaching strategy that is the independent variable in this scenario. In an experiment, the independent variable is the variable that the scientist deliberately changes or imposes on the subjects.

Dependent variables are known or hypothesized consequences; they are the effects that result from changes or differences in an independent variable. In an experiment, the dependent variables are those that the scientist measures before, during, and particularly at the end of the experiment to see if they have changed as expected. The dependent variable must be stated so that it is clear how it will be observed or measured. Rather than comparing “learning” among students (which is a vague and difficult to measure concept), an educational researcher might choose to compare test scores, which are very specific and easy to measure.

In any real-world example, many, many variables MIGHT affect the outcome of an experiment, yet only one or a few independent variables can be tested. Other variables must be kept as similar as possible between the study groups and are called control variables . For our educational research example, if the control group consisted only of people between the ages of 18 and 20 and the experimental group contained people between the ages of 30 and 35, we would not know if it was the teaching strategy or the students’ ages that played a larger role in the results. To avoid this problem, a good study will be set up so that each group contains students with a similar age profile. In a well-designed educational research study, student age will be a controlled variable, along with other possibly important factors like gender, past educational achievement, and pre-existing knowledge of the subject area.

What is the independent variable in this experiment?

• Sex (all of the subjects will be female)
• Presence or absence of the HPV vaccine
• Presence or absence of HPV (the virus)

List three control variables other than age.

What is the dependent variable in this experiment?

• Sex (male or female)
• Rates of HPV infection
• Age (years)

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What is a scientific hypothesis?

It's the initial building block in the scientific method.

Hypothesis basics

What makes a hypothesis testable.

• Types of hypotheses
• Hypothesis versus theory

Additional resources

Bibliography.

A scientific hypothesis is a tentative, testable explanation for a phenomenon in the natural world. It's the initial building block in the scientific method . Many describe it as an "educated guess" based on prior knowledge and observation. While this is true, a hypothesis is more informed than a guess. While an "educated guess" suggests a random prediction based on a person's expertise, developing a hypothesis requires active observation and background research. 

The basic idea of a hypothesis is that there is no predetermined outcome. For a solution to be termed a scientific hypothesis, it has to be an idea that can be supported or refuted through carefully crafted experimentation or observation. This concept, called falsifiability and testability, was advanced in the mid-20th century by Austrian-British philosopher Karl Popper in his famous book "The Logic of Scientific Discovery" (Routledge, 1959).

A key function of a hypothesis is to derive predictions about the results of future experiments and then perform those experiments to see whether they support the predictions.

A hypothesis is usually written in the form of an if-then statement, which gives a possibility (if) and explains what may happen because of the possibility (then). The statement could also include "may," according to California State University, Bakersfield .

Here are some examples of hypothesis statements:

• If garlic repels fleas, then a dog that is given garlic every day will not get fleas.
• If sugar causes cavities, then people who eat a lot of candy may be more prone to cavities.
• If ultraviolet light can damage the eyes, then maybe this light can cause blindness.

A useful hypothesis should be testable and falsifiable. That means that it should be possible to prove it wrong. A theory that can't be proved wrong is nonscientific, according to Karl Popper's 1963 book " Conjectures and Refutations ."

An example of an untestable statement is, "Dogs are better than cats." That's because the definition of "better" is vague and subjective. However, an untestable statement can be reworded to make it testable. For example, the previous statement could be changed to this: "Owning a dog is associated with higher levels of physical fitness than owning a cat." With this statement, the researcher can take measures of physical fitness from dog and cat owners and compare the two.

Types of scientific hypotheses

In an experiment, researchers generally state their hypotheses in two ways. The null hypothesis predicts that there will be no relationship between the variables tested, or no difference between the experimental groups. The alternative hypothesis predicts the opposite: that there will be a difference between the experimental groups. This is usually the hypothesis scientists are most interested in, according to the University of Miami .

For example, a null hypothesis might state, "There will be no difference in the rate of muscle growth between people who take a protein supplement and people who don't." The alternative hypothesis would state, "There will be a difference in the rate of muscle growth between people who take a protein supplement and people who don't."

If the results of the experiment show a relationship between the variables, then the null hypothesis has been rejected in favor of the alternative hypothesis, according to the book " Research Methods in Psychology " (​​BCcampus, 2015). 

There are other ways to describe an alternative hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis above does not specify a direction of the effect, only that there will be a difference between the two groups. That type of prediction is called a two-tailed hypothesis. If a hypothesis specifies a certain direction — for example, that people who take a protein supplement will gain more muscle than people who don't — it is called a one-tailed hypothesis, according to William M. K. Trochim , a professor of Policy Analysis and Management at Cornell University.

Sometimes, errors take place during an experiment. These errors can happen in one of two ways. A type I error is when the null hypothesis is rejected when it is true. This is also known as a false positive. A type II error occurs when the null hypothesis is not rejected when it is false. This is also known as a false negative, according to the University of California, Berkeley . 

A hypothesis can be rejected or modified, but it can never be proved correct 100% of the time. For example, a scientist can form a hypothesis stating that if a certain type of tomato has a gene for red pigment, that type of tomato will be red. During research, the scientist then finds that each tomato of this type is red. Though the findings confirm the hypothesis, there may be a tomato of that type somewhere in the world that isn't red. Thus, the hypothesis is true, but it may not be true 100% of the time.

Scientific theory vs. scientific hypothesis

The best hypotheses are simple. They deal with a relatively narrow set of phenomena. But theories are broader; they generally combine multiple hypotheses into a general explanation for a wide range of phenomena, according to the University of California, Berkeley . For example, a hypothesis might state, "If animals adapt to suit their environments, then birds that live on islands with lots of seeds to eat will have differently shaped beaks than birds that live on islands with lots of insects to eat." After testing many hypotheses like these, Charles Darwin formulated an overarching theory: the theory of evolution by natural selection.

"Theories are the ways that we make sense of what we observe in the natural world," Tanner said. "Theories are structures of ideas that explain and interpret facts." 

• Read more about writing a hypothesis, from the American Medical Writers Association.
• Find out why a hypothesis isn't always necessary in science, from The American Biology Teacher.
• Learn about null and alternative hypotheses, from Prof. Essa on YouTube .

Encyclopedia Britannica. Scientific Hypothesis. Jan. 13, 2022. https://www.britannica.com/science/scientific-hypothesis

Karl Popper, "The Logic of Scientific Discovery," Routledge, 1959.

California State University, Bakersfield, "Formatting a testable hypothesis." https://www.csub.edu/~ddodenhoff/Bio100/Bio100sp04/formattingahypothesis.htm  

Karl Popper, "Conjectures and Refutations," Routledge, 1963.

Price, P., Jhangiani, R., & Chiang, I., "Research Methods of Psychology — 2nd Canadian Edition," BCcampus, 2015.‌

University of Miami, "The Scientific Method" http://www.bio.miami.edu/dana/161/evolution/161app1_scimethod.pdf  

William M.K. Trochim, "Research Methods Knowledge Base," https://conjointly.com/kb/hypotheses-explained/  

University of California, Berkeley, "Multiple Hypothesis Testing and False Discovery Rate" https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~hhuang/STAT141/Lecture-FDR.pdf  

University of California, Berkeley, "Science at multiple levels" https://undsci.berkeley.edu/article/0_0_0/howscienceworks_19

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1.2 The Process of Science

Learning objectives.

• Identify the shared characteristics of the natural sciences
• Understand the process of scientific inquiry
• Compare inductive reasoning with deductive reasoning
• Describe the goals of basic science and applied science

Like geology, physics, and chemistry, biology is a science that gathers knowledge about the natural world. Specifically, biology is the study of life. The discoveries of biology are made by a community of researchers who work individually and together using agreed-on methods. In this sense, biology, like all sciences is a social enterprise like politics or the arts. The methods of science include careful observation, record keeping, logical and mathematical reasoning, experimentation, and submitting conclusions to the scrutiny of others. Science also requires considerable imagination and creativity; a well-designed experiment is commonly described as elegant, or beautiful. Like politics, science has considerable practical implications and some science is dedicated to practical applications, such as the prevention of disease (see Figure 1.15 ). Other science proceeds largely motivated by curiosity. Whatever its goal, there is no doubt that science, including biology, has transformed human existence and will continue to do so.

The Nature of Science

Biology is a science, but what exactly is science? What does the study of biology share with other scientific disciplines? Science (from the Latin scientia, meaning "knowledge") can be defined as knowledge about the natural world.

Science is a very specific way of learning, or knowing, about the world. The history of the past 500 years demonstrates that science is a very powerful way of knowing about the world; it is largely responsible for the technological revolutions that have taken place during this time. There are however, areas of knowledge and human experience that the methods of science cannot be applied to. These include such things as answering purely moral questions, aesthetic questions, or what can be generally categorized as spiritual questions. Science cannot investigate these areas because they are outside the realm of material phenomena, the phenomena of matter and energy, and cannot be observed and measured.

The scientific method is a method of research with defined steps that include experiments and careful observation. The steps of the scientific method will be examined in detail later, but one of the most important aspects of this method is the testing of hypotheses. A hypothesis is a suggested explanation for an event, which can be tested. Hypotheses, or tentative explanations, are generally produced within the context of a scientific theory . A generally accepted scientific theory is thoroughly tested and confirmed explanation for a set of observations or phenomena. Scientific theory is the foundation of scientific knowledge. In addition, in many scientific disciplines (less so in biology) there are scientific laws , often expressed in mathematical formulas, which describe how elements of nature will behave under certain specific conditions. There is not an evolution of hypotheses through theories to laws as if they represented some increase in certainty about the world. Hypotheses are the day-to-day material that scientists work with and they are developed within the context of theories. Laws are concise descriptions of parts of the world that are amenable to formulaic or mathematical description.

Natural Sciences

What would you expect to see in a museum of natural sciences? Frogs? Plants? Dinosaur skeletons? Exhibits about how the brain functions? A planetarium? Gems and minerals? Or maybe all of the above? Science includes such diverse fields as astronomy, biology, computer sciences, geology, logic, physics, chemistry, and mathematics ( Figure 1.16 ). However, those fields of science related to the physical world and its phenomena and processes are considered natural sciences . Thus, a museum of natural sciences might contain any of the items listed above.

There is no complete agreement when it comes to defining what the natural sciences include. For some experts, the natural sciences are astronomy, biology, chemistry, earth science, and physics. Other scholars choose to divide natural sciences into life sciences , which study living things and include biology, and physical sciences , which study nonliving matter and include astronomy, physics, and chemistry. Some disciplines such as biophysics and biochemistry build on two sciences and are interdisciplinary.

Scientific Inquiry

One thing is common to all forms of science: an ultimate goal “to know.” Curiosity and inquiry are the driving forces for the development of science. Scientists seek to understand the world and the way it operates. Two methods of logical thinking are used: inductive reasoning and deductive reasoning.

Inductive reasoning is a form of logical thinking that uses related observations to arrive at a general conclusion. This type of reasoning is common in descriptive science. A life scientist such as a biologist makes observations and records them. These data can be qualitative (descriptive) or quantitative (consisting of numbers), and the raw data can be supplemented with drawings, pictures, photos, or videos. From many observations, the scientist can infer conclusions (inductions) based on evidence. Inductive reasoning involves formulating generalizations inferred from careful observation and the analysis of a large amount of data. Brain studies often work this way. Many brains are observed while people are doing a task. The part of the brain that lights up, indicating activity, is then demonstrated to be the part controlling the response to that task.

Deductive reasoning or deduction is the type of logic used in hypothesis-based science. In deductive reasoning, the pattern of thinking moves in the opposite direction as compared to inductive reasoning. Deductive reasoning is a form of logical thinking that uses a general principle or law to predict specific results. From those general principles, a scientist can deduce and predict the specific results that would be valid as long as the general principles are valid. For example, a prediction would be that if the climate is becoming warmer in a region, the distribution of plants and animals should change. Comparisons have been made between distributions in the past and the present, and the many changes that have been found are consistent with a warming climate. Finding the change in distribution is evidence that the climate change conclusion is a valid one.

Both types of logical thinking are related to the two main pathways of scientific study: descriptive science and hypothesis-based science. Descriptive (or discovery) science aims to observe, explore, and discover, while hypothesis-based science begins with a specific question or problem and a potential answer or solution that can be tested. The boundary between these two forms of study is often blurred, because most scientific endeavors combine both approaches. Observations lead to questions, questions lead to forming a hypothesis as a possible answer to those questions, and then the hypothesis is tested. Thus, descriptive science and hypothesis-based science are in continuous dialogue.

Hypothesis Testing

Biologists study the living world by posing questions about it and seeking science-based responses. This approach is common to other sciences as well and is often referred to as the scientific method. The scientific method was used even in ancient times, but it was first documented by England’s Sir Francis Bacon (1561–1626) ( Figure 1.17 ), who set up inductive methods for scientific inquiry. The scientific method is not exclusively used by biologists but can be applied to almost anything as a logical problem-solving method.

The scientific process typically starts with an observation (often a problem to be solved) that leads to a question. Let’s think about a simple problem that starts with an observation and apply the scientific method to solve the problem. One Monday morning, a student arrives at class and quickly discovers that the classroom is too warm. That is an observation that also describes a problem: the classroom is too warm. The student then asks a question: “Why is the classroom so warm?”

Recall that a hypothesis is a suggested explanation that can be tested. To solve a problem, several hypotheses may be proposed. For example, one hypothesis might be, “The classroom is warm because no one turned on the air conditioning.” But there could be other responses to the question, and therefore other hypotheses may be proposed. A second hypothesis might be, “The classroom is warm because there is a power failure, and so the air conditioning doesn’t work.”

Once a hypothesis has been selected, a prediction may be made. A prediction is similar to a hypothesis but it typically has the format “If . . . then . . . .” For example, the prediction for the first hypothesis might be, “ If the student turns on the air conditioning, then the classroom will no longer be too warm.”

A hypothesis must be testable to ensure that it is valid. For example, a hypothesis that depends on what a bear thinks is not testable, because it can never be known what a bear thinks. It should also be falsifiable , meaning that it can be disproven by experimental results. An example of an unfalsifiable hypothesis is “Botticelli’s Birth of Venus is beautiful.” There is no experiment that might show this statement to be false. To test a hypothesis, a researcher will conduct one or more experiments designed to eliminate one or more of the hypotheses. This is important. A hypothesis can be disproven, or eliminated, but it can never be proven. Science does not deal in proofs like mathematics. If an experiment fails to disprove a hypothesis, then we find support for that explanation, but this is not to say that down the road a better explanation will not be found, or a more carefully designed experiment will be found to falsify the hypothesis.

Each experiment will have one or more variables and one or more controls. A variable is any part of the experiment that can vary or change during the experiment. A control is a part of the experiment that does not change. Look for the variables and controls in the example that follows. As a simple example, an experiment might be conducted to test the hypothesis that phosphate limits the growth of algae in freshwater ponds. A series of artificial ponds are filled with water and half of them are treated by adding phosphate each week, while the other half are treated by adding a salt that is known not to be used by algae. The variable here is the phosphate (or lack of phosphate), the experimental or treatment cases are the ponds with added phosphate and the control ponds are those with something inert added, such as the salt. Just adding something is also a control against the possibility that adding extra matter to the pond has an effect. If the treated ponds show lesser growth of algae, then we have found support for our hypothesis. If they do not, then we reject our hypothesis. Be aware that rejecting one hypothesis does not determine whether or not the other hypotheses can be accepted; it simply eliminates one hypothesis that is not valid ( Figure 1.18 ). Using the scientific method, the hypotheses that are inconsistent with experimental data are rejected.

In recent years a new approach of testing hypotheses has developed as a result of an exponential growth of data deposited in various databases. Using computer algorithms and statistical analyses of data in databases, a new field of so-called "data research" (also referred to as "in silico" research) provides new methods of data analyses and their interpretation. This will increase the demand for specialists in both biology and computer science, a promising career opportunity.

Visual Connection

In the example below, the scientific method is used to solve an everyday problem. Which part in the example below is the hypothesis? Which is the prediction? Based on the results of the experiment, is the hypothesis supported? If it is not supported, propose some alternative hypotheses.

• My toaster doesn’t toast my bread.
• Why doesn’t my toaster work?
• There is something wrong with the electrical outlet.
• If something is wrong with the outlet, my coffeemaker also won’t work when plugged into it.
• I plug my coffeemaker into the outlet.
• My coffeemaker works.

In practice, the scientific method is not as rigid and structured as it might at first appear. Sometimes an experiment leads to conclusions that favor a change in approach; often, an experiment brings entirely new scientific questions to the puzzle. Many times, science does not operate in a linear fashion; instead, scientists continually draw inferences and make generalizations, finding patterns as their research proceeds. Scientific reasoning is more complex than the scientific method alone suggests.

Basic and Applied Science

The scientific community has been debating for the last few decades about the value of different types of science. Is it valuable to pursue science for the sake of simply gaining knowledge, or does scientific knowledge only have worth if we can apply it to solving a specific problem or bettering our lives? This question focuses on the differences between two types of science: basic science and applied science.

Basic science or “pure” science seeks to expand knowledge regardless of the short-term application of that knowledge. It is not focused on developing a product or a service of immediate public or commercial value. The immediate goal of basic science is knowledge for knowledge’s sake, though this does not mean that in the end it may not result in an application.

In contrast, applied science or “technology,” aims to use science to solve real-world problems, making it possible, for example, to improve a crop yield, find a cure for a particular disease, or save animals threatened by a natural disaster. In applied science, the problem is usually defined for the researcher.

Some individuals may perceive applied science as “useful” and basic science as “useless.” A question these people might pose to a scientist advocating knowledge acquisition would be, “What for?” A careful look at the history of science, however, reveals that basic knowledge has resulted in many remarkable applications of great value. Many scientists think that a basic understanding of science is necessary before an application is developed; therefore, applied science relies on the results generated through basic science. Other scientists think that it is time to move on from basic science and instead to find solutions to actual problems. Both approaches are valid. It is true that there are problems that demand immediate attention; however, few solutions would be found without the help of the knowledge generated through basic science.

One example of how basic and applied science can work together to solve practical problems occurred after the discovery of DNA structure led to an understanding of the molecular mechanisms governing DNA replication. Strands of DNA, unique in every human, are found in our cells, where they provide the instructions necessary for life. During DNA replication, new copies of DNA are made, shortly before a cell divides to form new cells. Understanding the mechanisms of DNA replication enabled scientists to develop laboratory techniques that are now used to identify genetic diseases, pinpoint individuals who were at a crime scene, and determine paternity. Without basic science, it is unlikely that applied science could exist.

Another example of the link between basic and applied research is the Human Genome Project, a study in which each human chromosome was analyzed and mapped to determine the precise sequence of DNA subunits and the exact location of each gene. (The gene is the basic unit of heredity represented by a specific DNA segment that codes for a functional molecule.) Other organisms have also been studied as part of this project to gain a better understanding of human chromosomes. The Human Genome Project ( Figure 1.19 ) relied on basic research carried out with non-human organisms and, later, with the human genome. An important end goal eventually became using the data for applied research seeking cures for genetically related diseases.

While research efforts in both basic science and applied science are usually carefully planned, it is important to note that some discoveries are made by serendipity, that is, by means of a fortunate accident or a lucky surprise. Penicillin was discovered when biologist Alexander Fleming accidentally left a petri dish of Staphylococcus bacteria open. An unwanted mold grew, killing the bacteria. The mold turned out to be Penicillium , and a new critically important antibiotic was discovered. In a similar manner, Percy Lavon Julian was an established medicinal chemist working on a way to mass produce compounds with which to manufacture important drugs. He was focused on using soybean oil in the production of progesterone (a hormone important in the menstrual cycle and pregnancy), but it wasn't until water accidentally leaked into a large soybean oil storage tank that he found his method. Immediately recognizing the resulting substance as stigmasterol, a primary ingredient in progesterone and similar drugs, he began the process of replicating and industrializing the process in a manner that has helped millions of people. Even in the highly organized world of science, luck—when combined with an observant, curious mind focused on the types of reasoning discussed above—can lead to unexpected breakthroughs.

Reporting Scientific Work

Whether scientific research is basic science or applied science, scientists must share their findings for other researchers to expand and build upon their discoveries. Communication and collaboration within and between sub disciplines of science are key to the advancement of knowledge in science. For this reason, an important aspect of a scientist’s work is disseminating results and communicating with peers. Scientists can share results by presenting them at a scientific meeting or conference, but this approach can reach only the limited few who are present. Instead, most scientists present their results in peer-reviewed articles that are published in scientific journals. Peer-reviewed articles are scientific papers that are reviewed, usually anonymously by a scientist’s colleagues, or peers. These colleagues are qualified individuals, often experts in the same research area, who judge whether or not the scientist’s work is suitable for publication. The process of peer review helps to ensure that the research described in a scientific paper or grant proposal is original, significant, logical, and thorough. Grant proposals, which are requests for research funding, are also subject to peer review. Scientists publish their work so other scientists can reproduce their experiments under similar or different conditions to expand on the findings.

There are many journals and the popular press that do not use a peer-review system. A large number of online open-access journals, journals with articles available without cost, are now available many of which use rigorous peer-review systems, but some of which do not. Results of any studies published in these forums without peer review are not reliable and should not form the basis for other scientific work. In one exception, journals may allow a researcher to cite a personal communication from another researcher about unpublished results with the cited author’s permission.

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Genetics and Statistical Analysis

Once you have performed an experiment, how can you tell if your results are significant? For example, say that you are performing a genetic cross in which you know the genotypes of the parents. In this situation, you might hypothesize that the cross will result in a certain ratio of phenotypes in the offspring . But what if your observed results do not exactly match your expectations? How can you tell whether this deviation was due to chance? The key to answering these questions is the use of statistics , which allows you to determine whether your data are consistent with your hypothesis.

Forming and Testing a Hypothesis

The first thing any scientist does before performing an experiment is to form a hypothesis about the experiment's outcome. This often takes the form of a null hypothesis , which is a statistical hypothesis that states there will be no difference between observed and expected data. The null hypothesis is proposed by a scientist before completing an experiment, and it can be either supported by data or disproved in favor of an alternate hypothesis.

Let's consider some examples of the use of the null hypothesis in a genetics experiment. Remember that Mendelian inheritance deals with traits that show discontinuous variation, which means that the phenotypes fall into distinct categories. As a consequence, in a Mendelian genetic cross, the null hypothesis is usually an extrinsic hypothesis ; in other words, the expected proportions can be predicted and calculated before the experiment starts. Then an experiment can be designed to determine whether the data confirm or reject the hypothesis. On the other hand, in another experiment, you might hypothesize that two genes are linked. This is called an intrinsic hypothesis , which is a hypothesis in which the expected proportions are calculated after the experiment is done using some information from the experimental data (McDonald, 2008).

How Math Merged with Biology

But how did mathematics and genetics come to be linked through the use of hypotheses and statistical analysis? The key figure in this process was Karl Pearson, a turn-of-the-century mathematician who was fascinated with biology. When asked what his first memory was, Pearson responded by saying, "Well, I do not know how old I was, but I was sitting in a high chair and I was sucking my thumb. Someone told me to stop sucking it and said that if I did so, the thumb would wither away. I put my two thumbs together and looked at them a long time. ‘They look alike to me,' I said to myself, ‘I can't see that the thumb I suck is any smaller than the other. I wonder if she could be lying to me'" (Walker, 1958). As this anecdote illustrates, Pearson was perhaps born to be a scientist. He was a sharp observer and intent on interpreting his own data. During his career, Pearson developed statistical theories and applied them to the exploration of biological data. His innovations were not well received, however, and he faced an arduous struggle in convincing other scientists to accept the idea that mathematics should be applied to biology. For instance, during Pearson's time, the Royal Society, which is the United Kingdom's academy of science, would accept papers that concerned either mathematics or biology, but it refused to accept papers than concerned both subjects (Walker, 1958). In response, Pearson, along with Francis Galton and W. F. R. Weldon, founded a new journal called Biometrika in 1901 to promote the statistical analysis of data on heredity. Pearson's persistence paid off. Today, statistical tests are essential for examining biological data.

Pearson's Chi-Square Test for Goodness-of-Fit

One of Pearson's most significant achievements occurred in 1900, when he developed a statistical test called Pearson's chi-square (Χ 2 ) test, also known as the chi-square test for goodness-of-fit (Pearson, 1900). Pearson's chi-square test is used to examine the role of chance in producing deviations between observed and expected values. The test depends on an extrinsic hypothesis, because it requires theoretical expected values to be calculated. The test indicates the probability that chance alone produced the deviation between the expected and the observed values (Pierce, 2005). When the probability calculated from Pearson's chi-square test is high, it is assumed that chance alone produced the difference. Conversely, when the probability is low, it is assumed that a significant factor other than chance produced the deviation.

In 1912, J. Arthur Harris applied Pearson's chi-square test to examine Mendelian ratios (Harris, 1912). It is important to note that when Gregor Mendel studied inheritance, he did not use statistics, and neither did Bateson, Saunders, Punnett, and Morgan during their experiments that discovered genetic linkage . Thus, until Pearson's statistical tests were applied to biological data, scientists judged the goodness of fit between theoretical and observed experimental results simply by inspecting the data and drawing conclusions (Harris, 1912). Although this method can work perfectly if one's data exactly matches one's predictions, scientific experiments often have variability associated with them, and this makes statistical tests very useful.

The chi-square value is calculated using the following formula:

Using this formula, the difference between the observed and expected frequencies is calculated for each experimental outcome category. The difference is then squared and divided by the expected frequency . Finally, the chi-square values for each outcome are summed together, as represented by the summation sign (Σ).

Pearson's chi-square test works well with genetic data as long as there are enough expected values in each group. In the case of small samples (less than 10 in any category) that have 1 degree of freedom, the test is not reliable. (Degrees of freedom, or df, will be explained in full later in this article.) However, in such cases, the test can be corrected by using the Yates correction for continuity, which reduces the absolute value of each difference between observed and expected frequencies by 0.5 before squaring. Additionally, it is important to remember that the chi-square test can only be applied to numbers of progeny , not to proportions or percentages.

Now that you know the rules for using the test, it's time to consider an example of how to calculate Pearson's chi-square. Recall that when Mendel crossed his pea plants, he learned that tall (T) was dominant to short (t). You want to confirm that this is correct, so you start by formulating the following null hypothesis: In a cross between two heterozygote (Tt) plants, the offspring should occur in a 3:1 ratio of tall plants to short plants. Next, you cross the plants, and after the cross, you measure the characteristics of 400 offspring. You note that there are 305 tall pea plants and 95 short pea plants; these are your observed values. Meanwhile, you expect that there will be 300 tall plants and 100 short plants from the Mendelian ratio.

You are now ready to perform statistical analysis of your results, but first, you have to choose a critical value at which to reject your null hypothesis. You opt for a critical value probability of 0.01 (1%) that the deviation between the observed and expected values is due to chance. This means that if the probability is less than 0.01, then the deviation is significant and not due to chance, and you will reject your null hypothesis. However, if the deviation is greater than 0.01, then the deviation is not significant and you will not reject the null hypothesis.

So, should you reject your null hypothesis or not? Here's a summary of your observed and expected data:

Now, let's calculate Pearson's chi-square:

• For tall plants: Χ 2 = (305 - 300) 2 / 300 = 0.08
• For short plants: Χ 2 = (95 - 100) 2 / 100 = 0.25
• The sum of the two categories is 0.08 + 0.25 = 0.33
• Therefore, the overall Pearson's chi-square for the experiment is Χ 2 = 0.33

Next, you determine the probability that is associated with your calculated chi-square value. To do this, you compare your calculated chi-square value with theoretical values in a chi-square table that has the same number of degrees of freedom. Degrees of freedom represent the number of ways in which the observed outcome categories are free to vary. For Pearson's chi-square test, the degrees of freedom are equal to n - 1, where n represents the number of different expected phenotypes (Pierce, 2005). In your experiment, there are two expected outcome phenotypes (tall and short), so n = 2 categories, and the degrees of freedom equal 2 - 1 = 1. Thus, with your calculated chi-square value (0.33) and the associated degrees of freedom (1), you can determine the probability by using a chi-square table (Table 1).

Table 1: Chi-Square Table

(Table adapted from Jones, 2008)

Note that the chi-square table is organized with degrees of freedom (df) in the left column and probabilities (P) at the top. The chi-square values associated with the probabilities are in the center of the table. To determine the probability, first locate the row for the degrees of freedom for your experiment, then determine where the calculated chi-square value would be placed among the theoretical values in the corresponding row.

At the beginning of your experiment, you decided that if the probability was less than 0.01, you would reject your null hypothesis because the deviation would be significant and not due to chance. Now, looking at the row that corresponds to 1 degree of freedom, you see that your calculated chi-square value of 0.33 falls between 0.016, which is associated with a probability of 0.9, and 2.706, which is associated with a probability of 0.10. Therefore, there is between a 10% and 90% probability that the deviation you observed between your expected and the observed numbers of tall and short plants is due to chance. In other words, the probability associated with your chi-square value is much greater than the critical value of 0.01. This means that we will not reject our null hypothesis, and the deviation between the observed and expected results is not significant.

Level of Significance

Determining whether to accept or reject a hypothesis is decided by the experimenter, who is the person who chooses the "level of significance" or confidence. Scientists commonly use the 0.05, 0.01, or 0.001 probability levels as cut-off values. For instance, in the example experiment, you used the 0.01 probability. Thus, P ≥ 0.01 can be interpreted to mean that chance likely caused the deviation between the observed and the expected values (i.e. there is a greater than 1% probability that chance explains the data). If instead we had observed that P ≤ 0.01, this would mean that there is less than a 1% probability that our data can be explained by chance. There is a significant difference between our expected and observed results, so the deviation must be caused by something other than chance.

References and Recommended Reading

Harris, J. A. A simple test of the goodness of fit of Mendelian ratios. American Naturalist 46 , 741–745 (1912)

Jones, J. "Table: Chi-Square Probabilities." http://people.richland.edu/james/lecture/m170/tbl-chi.html (2008) (accessed July 7, 2008)

McDonald, J. H. Chi-square test for goodness-of-fit. From The Handbook of Biological Statistics . http://udel.edu/~mcdonald/statchigof.html (2008) (accessed June 9, 2008)

Pearson, K. On the criterion that a given system of deviations from the probable in the case of correlated system of variables is such that it can be reasonably supposed to have arisen from random sampling. Philosophical Magazine 50 , 157–175 (1900)

Pierce, B. Genetics: A Conceptual Approach (New York, Freeman, 2005)

Walker, H. M. The contributions of Karl Pearson. Journal of the American Statistical Association 53 , 11–22 (1958)

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Scientific Method: Step 3: HYPOTHESIS

• Step 1: QUESTION
• Step 2: RESEARCH
• Step 3: HYPOTHESIS
• Step 4: EXPERIMENT
• Step 5: DATA
• Step 6: CONCLUSION

Step 3: State your hypothesis

Now it's time to state your hypothesis . The hypothesis is an educated guess as to what will happen during your experiment. 

The hypothesis is often written using the words "IF" and "THEN." For example, " If I do not study, then I will fail the test." The "if' and "then" statements reflect your independent and dependent variables . 

The hypothesis should relate back to your original question and must be testable .

A word about variables...

Your experiment will include variables to measure and to explain any cause and effect. Below you will find some useful links describing the different types of variables.

• "What are independent and dependent variables" NCES
• [VIDEO] Biology: Independent vs. Dependent Variables (Nucleus Medical Media) Video explaining independent and dependent variables, with examples.

Resource Links

• What is and How to Write a Good Hypothesis in Research? (Elsevier)
• Hypothesis brochure from Penn State/Berks

• << Previous: Step 2: RESEARCH
• Next: Step 4: EXPERIMENT >>
• Last Updated: Jan 26, 2024 10:39 AM
• URL: https://harford.libguides.com/scientific_method

1 Hypothesis Testing

Biology is a science, but what exactly is science? What does the study of biology share with other scientific disciplines?  Science  (from the Latin scientia, meaning “knowledge”) can be defined as knowledge about the natural world.

Biologists study the living world by posing questions about it and seeking science-based responses. This approach is common to other sciences as well and is often referred to as the scientific method . The scientific process was used even in ancient times, but it was first documented by England’s Sir Francis Bacon (1561–1626) ( Figure 1 ), who set up inductive methods for scientific inquiry. The scientific method is not exclusively used by biologists but can be applied to almost anything as a logical problem solving method.

The scientific process typically starts with an observation  (often a problem to be solved) that leads to a question.  Science is very good at answering questions having to do with observations about the natural world, but is very bad at answering questions having to do with purely moral questions, aesthetic questions, personal opinions, or what can be generally categorized as spiritual questions. Science has cannot investigate these areas because they are outside the realm of material phenomena, the phenomena of matter and energy, and cannot be observed and measured.

Let’s think about a simple problem that starts with an observation and apply the scientific method to solve the problem. Imagine that one morning when you wake up and flip a the switch to turn on your bedside lamp, the light won’t turn on. That is an observation that also describes a problem: the lights won’t turn on. Of course, you would next ask the question: “Why won’t the light turn on?”

A hypothesis  is a suggested explanation that can be tested. A hypothesis is NOT the question you are trying to answer – it is what you think the answer to the question will be and why .  Several hypotheses may be proposed as answers to one question. For example, one hypothesis about the question “Why won’t the light turn on?” is “The light won’t turn on because the bulb is burned out.” There are also other possible answers to the question, and therefore other hypotheses may be proposed. A second hypothesis is “The light won’t turn on because the lamp is unplugged” or “The light won’t turn on because the power is out.” A hypothesis should be based on credible background information. A hypothesis is NOT just a guess (not even an educated one), although it can be based on your prior experience (such as in the example where the light won’t turn on). In general, hypotheses in biology should be based on a credible, referenced source of information.

A hypothesis must be testable to ensure that it is valid. For example, a hypothesis that depends on what a dog thinks is not testable, because we can’t tell what a dog thinks. It should also be  falsifiable,  meaning that it can be disproven by experimental results. An example of an unfalsifiable hypothesis is “Red is a better color than blue.” There is no experiment that might show this statement to be false. To test a hypothesis, a researcher will conduct one or more experiments designed to eliminate one or more of the hypotheses. This is important: a hypothesis can be disproven, or eliminated, but it can never be proven.  If an experiment fails to disprove a hypothesis, then that explanation (the hypothesis) is supported as the answer to the question. However, that doesn’t mean that later on, we won’t find a better explanation or design a better experiment that will disprove the first hypothesis and lead to a better one.

A variable is any part of the experiment that can vary or change during the experiment. Typically, an experiment only tests one variable and all the other conditions in the experiment are held constant.

• The variable that is being changed or tested is known as the  independent variable .
• The  dependent variable  is the thing (or things) that you are measuring as the outcome of your experiment.
• A  constant  is a condition that is the same between all of the tested groups.
• A confounding variable  is a condition that is not held constant that could affect the experimental results.

Let’s start with the first hypothesis given above for the light bulb experiment: the bulb is burned out. When testing this hypothesis, the independent variable (the thing that you are testing) would be changing the light bulb and the dependent variable is whether or not the light turns on.

• HINT: You should be able to put your identified independent and dependent variables into the phrase “dependent depends on independent”. If you say “whether or not the light turns on depends on changing the light bulb” this makes sense and describes this experiment. In contrast, if you say “changing the light bulb depends on whether or not the light turns on” it doesn’t make sense.

It would be important to hold all the other aspects of the environment constant, for example not messing with the lamp cord or trying to turn the lamp on using a different light switch. If the entire house had lost power during the experiment because a car hit the power pole, that would be a confounding variable.

You may have learned that a hypothesis can be phrased as an “If..then…” statement. Simple hypotheses can be phrased that way (but they must always also include a “because”), but more complicated hypotheses may require several sentences. It is also very easy to get confused by trying to put your hypothesis into this format. Don’t worry about phrasing hypotheses as “if…then” statements – that is almost never done in experiments outside a classroom.

The results  of your experiment are the data that you collect as the outcome.  In the light experiment, your results are either that the light turns on or the light doesn’t turn on. Based on your results, you can make a conclusion. Your conclusion  uses the results to answer your original question.

We can put the experiment with the light that won’t go in into the figure above:

• Observation: the light won’t turn on.
• Question: why won’t the light turn on?
• Hypothesis: the lightbulb is burned out.
• Prediction: if I change the lightbulb (independent variable), then the light will turn on (dependent variable).
• Experiment: change the lightbulb while leaving all other variables the same.
• Analyze the results: the light didn’t turn on.
• Conclusion: The lightbulb isn’t burned out. The results do not support the hypothesis, time to develop a new one!
• Hypothesis 2: the lamp is unplugged.
• Prediction 2: if I plug in the lamp, then the light will turn on.
• Experiment: plug in the lamp
• Analyze the results: the light turned on!
• Conclusion: The light wouldn’t turn on because the lamp was unplugged. The results support the hypothesis, it’s time to move on to the next experiment!

In practice, the scientific method is not as rigid and structured as it might at first appear. Sometimes an experiment leads to conclusions that favor a change in approach; often, an experiment brings entirely new scientific questions to the puzzle. Many times, science does not operate in a linear fashion; instead, scientists continually draw inferences and make generalizations, finding patterns as their research proceeds. Scientific reasoning is more complex than the scientific method alone suggests.

Control Groups

Another important aspect of designing an experiment is the presence of one or more control groups. A control group  allows you to make a comparison that is important for interpreting your results. Control groups are samples that help you to determine that differences between your experimental groups are due to your treatment rather than a different variable – they eliminate alternate explanations for your results (including experimental error and experimenter bias). They increase reliability, often through the comparison of control measurements and measurements of the experimental groups. Often, the control group is a sample that is not treated with the independent variable, but is otherwise treated the same way as your experimental sample. This type of control group is treated the same way as the experimental group except it does not get treated with the independent variable. Therefore, if the results of the experimental group differ from the control group, the difference must be due to the change of the independent, rather than some outside factor. It is common in complex experiments (such as those published in scientific journals) to have more control groups than experimental groups.

Question: Which fertilizer will produce the greatest number of tomatoes when applied to the plants?

Hypothesis : If I apply different brands of fertilizer to tomato plants, the most tomatoes will be produced from plants watered with Brand A because Brand A advertises that it produces twice as many tomatoes as other leading brands.

Experiment:  Purchase 10 tomato plants of the same type from the same nursery. Pick plants that are similar in size and age. Divide the plants into two groups of 5. Apply Brand A to the first group and Brand B to the second group according to the instructions on the packages. After 10 weeks, count the number of tomatoes on each plant.

Independent Variable:  Brand of fertilizer.

Dependent Variable : Number of tomatoes.

• The number of tomatoes produced depends on the brand of fertilizer applied to the plants.

Constants:  amount of water, type of soil, size of pot, amount of light, type of tomato plant, length of time plants were grown.

Confounding variables : any of the above that are not held constant, plant health, diseases present in the soil or plant before it was purchased.

Results:  Tomatoes fertilized with Brand A  produced an average of 20 tomatoes per plant, while tomatoes fertilized with Brand B produced an average of 10 tomatoes per plant.

You’d want to use Brand A next time you grow tomatoes, right? But what if I told you that plants grown without fertilizer produced an average of 30 tomatoes per plant! Now what will you use on your tomatoes?

Results including control group : Tomatoes which received no fertilizer produced more tomatoes than either brand of fertilizer.

Conclusion:  Although Brand A fertilizer produced more tomatoes than Brand B, neither fertilizer should be used because plants grown without fertilizer produced the most tomatoes!

More examples of control groups:

• You observe growth . Does this mean that your spinach is really contaminated? Consider an alternate explanation for growth: the swab, the water, or the plate is contaminated with bacteria. You could use a control group to determine which explanation is true. If you wet one of the swabs and wiped on a nutrient plate, do bacteria grow?
• You don’t observe growth.  Does this mean that your spinach is really safe? Consider an alternate explanation for no growth: Salmonella isn’t able to grow on the type of nutrient you used in your plates. You could use a control group to determine which explanation is true. If you wipe a known sample of Salmonella bacteria on the plate, do bacteria grow?
• You see a reduction in disease symptoms: you might expect a reduction in disease symptoms purely because the person knows they are taking a drug so they believe should be getting better. If the group treated with the real drug does not show more a reduction in disease symptoms than the placebo group, the drug doesn’t really work. The placebo group sets a baseline against which the experimental group (treated with the drug) can be compared.
• You don’t see a reduction in disease symptoms: your drug doesn’t work. You don’t need an additional control group for comparison.
• You would want a “placebo feeder”. This would be the same type of feeder, but with no food in it. Birds might visit a feeder just because they are interested in it; an empty feeder would give a baseline level for bird visits.
• You would want a control group where you knew the enzyme would function. This would be a tube where you did not change the pH. You need this control group so you know your enzyme is working: if you didn’t see a reaction in any of the tubes with the pH adjusted, you wouldn’t know if it was because the enzyme wasn’t working at all or because the enzyme just didn’t work at any of your tested pH values.
• You would also want a control group where you knew the enzyme would not function (no enzyme added). You need the negative control group so you can ensure that there is no reaction taking place in the absence of enzyme: if the reaction proceeds without the enzyme, your results are meaningless.

Text adapted from: OpenStax , Biology. OpenStax CNX. May 27, 2016  http://cnx.org/contents/[email protected]:RD6ERYiU@5/The-Process-of-Science .

MHCC Biology 112: Biology for Health Professions Copyright © 2019 by Lisa Bartee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License , except where otherwise noted.

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Biology Hypothesis

Delve into the fascinating world of biology with our definitive guide on crafting impeccable hypothesis thesis statements . As the foundation of any impactful biological research, a well-formed hypothesis paves the way for groundbreaking discoveries and insights. Whether you’re examining cellular behavior or large-scale ecosystems, mastering the art of the thesis statement is crucial. Embark on this enlightening journey with us, as we provide stellar examples and invaluable writing advice tailored for budding biologists.

What is a good hypothesis in biology?

A good hypothesis in biology is a statement that offers a tentative explanation for a biological phenomenon, based on prior knowledge or observation. It should be:

• Testable: The hypothesis should be measurable and can be proven false through experiments or observations.
• Clear: It should be stated clearly and without ambiguity.
• Based on Knowledge: A solid hypothesis often stems from existing knowledge or literature in the field.
• Specific: It should clearly define the variables being tested and the expected outcomes.
• Falsifiable: It’s essential that a hypothesis can be disproven. This means there should be a possible result that could indicate the hypothesis is incorrect.

What is an example of a hypothesis statement in biology?

Example: “If a plant is given a higher concentration of carbon dioxide, then it will undergo photosynthesis at an increased rate compared to a plant given a standard concentration of carbon dioxide.”

In this example:

• The independent variable (what’s being changed) is the concentration of carbon dioxide.
• The dependent variable (what’s being measured) is the rate of photosynthesis. The statement proposes a cause-and-effect relationship that can be tested through experimentation.

100 Biology Thesis Statement Examples

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Biology, as the study of life and living organisms, is vast and diverse. Crafting a good thesis statement in this field requires a clear understanding of the topic at hand, capturing the essence of the research aim. From genetics to ecology, from cell biology to animal behavior, the following examples will give you a comprehensive idea about forming succinct biology thesis statements.

Genetics: Understanding the role of the BRCA1 gene in breast cancer susceptibility can lead to targeted treatments.

2. Evolution: The finch populations of the Galápagos Islands provide evidence of natural selection through beak variations in response to food availability.

3. Cell Biology: Mitochondrial dysfunction is a central factor in the onset of age-related neurodegenerative diseases.

4. Ecology: Deforestation in the Amazon directly impacts global carbon dioxide levels, influencing climate change.

5. Human Anatomy: Regular exercise enhances cardiovascular health by improving heart muscle function and reducing arterial plaque.

6. Marine Biology: Coral bleaching events in the Great Barrier Reef correlate strongly with rising sea temperatures.

7. Zoology: Migration patterns of Monarch butterflies are influenced by seasonal changes and available food sources.

8. Botany: The symbiotic relationship between mycorrhizal fungi and plant roots enhances nutrient absorption in poor soil conditions.

9. Microbiology: The overuse of antibiotics in healthcare has accelerated the evolution of antibiotic-resistant bacterial strains.

10. Physiology: High altitude adaptation in certain human populations has led to increased hemoglobin production.

11. Immunology: The role of T-cells in the human immune response is critical in developing effective vaccines against viral diseases.

12. Behavioral Biology: Birdsong variations in sparrows can be attributed to both genetic factors and environmental influences.

13. Developmental Biology: The presence of certain hormones during fetal development dictates the differentiation of sex organs in mammals.

14. Conservation Biology: The rapid decline of bee populations worldwide is directly linked to the use of certain pesticides in agriculture.

15. Molecular Biology: The CRISPR-Cas9 system has revolutionized gene editing techniques, offering potential cures for genetic diseases.

16. Virology: The mutation rate of the influenza virus necessitates annual updates in vaccine formulations.

17. Neurobiology: Neural plasticity in the adult brain can be enhanced through consistent learning and cognitive challenges.

18. Ethology: Elephant herds exhibit complex social structures and matriarchal leadership.

19. Biotechnology: Genetically modified crops can improve yield and resistance but also pose ecological challenges.

20. Environmental Biology: Industrial pollution in freshwater systems disrupts aquatic life and can lead to loss of biodiversity.

21. Neurodegenerative Diseases: Amyloid-beta protein accumulation in the brain is a key marker for Alzheimer’s disease progression.

22. Endocrinology: The disruption of thyroid hormone balance leads to metabolic disorders and weight fluctuations.

23. Bioinformatics: Machine learning algorithms can predict protein structures with high accuracy, advancing drug design.

24. Plant Physiology: The stomatal closure mechanism in plants helps prevent water loss and maintain turgor pressure.

25. Parasitology: The lifecycle of the malaria parasite involves complex interactions between humans and mosquitoes.

26. Molecular Genetics: Epigenetic modifications play a crucial role in gene expression regulation and cell differentiation.

27. Evolutionary Psychology: Human preference for symmetrical faces is a result of evolutionarily advantageous traits.

28. Ecosystem Dynamics: The reintroduction of apex predators in ecosystems restores ecological balance and biodiversity.

29. Epigenetics: Maternal dietary choices during pregnancy can influence the epigenetic profiles of offspring.

30. Biochemistry: Enzyme kinetics in metabolic pathways reveal insights into cellular energy production.

31. Bioluminescence: The role of bioluminescence in deep-sea organisms serves as camouflage and communication.

32. Genetics of Disease: Mutations in the CFTR gene cause cystic fibrosis, leading to severe respiratory and digestive issues.

33. Reproductive Biology: The influence of pheromones on mate selection is a critical aspect of reproductive success in many species.

34. Plant-Microbe Interactions: Rhizobium bacteria facilitate nitrogen fixation in leguminous plants, benefiting both organisms.

35. Comparative Anatomy: Homologous structures in different species provide evidence of shared evolutionary ancestry.

36. Stem Cell Research: Induced pluripotent stem cells hold immense potential for regenerative medicine and disease modeling.

37. Bioethics: Balancing the use of genetic modification in humans with ethical considerations is a complex challenge.

38. Molecular Evolution: The study of orthologous and paralogous genes offers insights into evolutionary relationships.

39. Bioenergetics: ATP synthesis through oxidative phosphorylation is a fundamental process driving cellular energy production.

40. Population Genetics: The Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium model helps predict allele frequencies in populations over time.

41. Animal Communication: The complex vocalizations of whales serve both social bonding and long-distance communication purposes.

42. Biogeography: The distribution of marsupials in Australia and their absence elsewhere highlights the impact of geographical isolation on evolution.

43. Aquatic Ecology: The phenomenon of eutrophication in lakes is driven by excessive nutrient runoff and results in harmful algal blooms.

44. Insect Behavior: The waggle dance of honeybees conveys precise information about the location of food sources to other members of the hive.

45. Microbial Ecology: The gut microbiome’s composition influences host health, metabolism, and immune system development.

46. Evolution of Sex: The Red Queen hypothesis explains the evolution of sexual reproduction as a defense against rapidly evolving parasites.

47. Immunotherapy: Manipulating the immune response to target cancer cells shows promise as an effective cancer treatment strategy.

48. Epigenetic Inheritance: Epigenetic modifications can be passed down through generations, impacting traits and disease susceptibility.

49. Comparative Genomics: Comparing the genomes of different species sheds light on genetic adaptations and evolutionary divergence.

50. Neurotransmission: The dopamine reward pathway in the brain is implicated in addiction and motivation-related behaviors.

51. Microbial Biotechnology: Genetically engineered bacteria can produce valuable compounds like insulin, revolutionizing pharmaceutical production.

52. Bioinformatics: DNA sequence analysis reveals evolutionary relationships between species and uncovers hidden genetic information.

53. Animal Migration: The navigational abilities of migratory birds are influenced by magnetic fields and celestial cues.

54. Human Evolution: The discovery of ancient hominin fossils provides insights into the evolutionary timeline of our species.

55. Cancer Genetics: Mutations in tumor suppressor genes contribute to the uncontrolled growth and division of cancer cells.

56. Aquatic Biomes: Coral reefs, rainforests of the sea, host incredible biodiversity and face threats from climate change and pollution.

57. Genomic Medicine: Personalized treatments based on an individual’s genetic makeup hold promise for more effective healthcare.

58. Molecular Pharmacology: Understanding receptor-ligand interactions aids in the development of targeted drugs for specific diseases.

59. Biodiversity Conservation: Preserving habitat diversity is crucial to maintaining ecosystems and preventing species extinction.

60. Evolutionary Developmental Biology: Comparing embryonic development across species reveals shared genetic pathways and evolutionary constraints.

61. Plant Reproductive Strategies: Understanding the trade-offs between asexual and sexual reproduction in plants sheds light on their evolutionary success.

62. Parasite-Host Interactions: The coevolution of parasites and their hosts drives adaptations and counter-adaptations over time.

63. Genomic Diversity: Exploring genetic variations within populations helps uncover disease susceptibilities and evolutionary history.

64. Ecological Succession: Studying the process of ecosystem recovery after disturbances provides insights into resilience and stability.

65. Conservation Genetics: Genetic diversity assessment aids in formulating effective conservation strategies for endangered species.

66. Neuroplasticity and Learning: Investigating how the brain adapts through synaptic changes improves our understanding of memory and learning.

67. Synthetic Biology: Designing and engineering biological systems offers innovative solutions for medical, environmental, and industrial challenges.

68. Ethnobotany: Documenting the traditional uses of plants by indigenous communities informs both conservation and pharmaceutical research.

69. Ecological Niche Theory: Exploring how species adapt to specific ecological niches enhances our grasp of biodiversity patterns.

70. Ecosystem Services: Quantifying the benefits provided by ecosystems, like pollination and carbon sequestration, supports conservation efforts.

71. Fungal Biology: Investigating mycorrhizal relationships between fungi and plants illuminates nutrient exchange mechanisms.

72. Molecular Clock Hypothesis: Genetic mutations accumulate over time, providing a method to estimate evolutionary divergence dates.

73. Developmental Disorders: Unraveling the genetic and environmental factors contributing to developmental disorders informs therapeutic approaches.

74. Epigenetics and Disease: Epigenetic modifications contribute to the development of diseases like cancer, diabetes, and neurodegenerative disorders.

75. Animal Cognition: Studying cognitive abilities in animals unveils their problem-solving skills, social dynamics, and sensory perceptions.

76. Microbiota-Brain Axis: The gut-brain connection suggests a bidirectional communication pathway influencing mental health and behavior.

77. Neurological Disorders: Neurodegenerative diseases like Parkinson’s and Alzheimer’s have genetic and environmental components that drive their progression.

78. Plant Defense Mechanisms: Investigating how plants ward off pests and pathogens informs sustainable agricultural practices.

79. Conservation Genomics: Genetic data aids in identifying distinct populations and prioritizing conservation efforts for at-risk species.

80. Reproductive Strategies: Comparing reproductive methods in different species provides insights into evolutionary trade-offs and reproductive success.

81. Epigenetics in Aging: Exploring epigenetic changes in the aging process offers insights into longevity and age-related diseases.

82. Antimicrobial Resistance: Understanding the genetic mechanisms behind bacterial resistance to antibiotics informs strategies to combat the global health threat.

83. Plant-Animal Interactions: Investigating mutualistic relationships between plants and pollinators showcases the delicate balance of ecosystems.

84. Adaptations to Extreme Environments: Studying extremophiles reveals the remarkable ways organisms thrive in extreme conditions like deep-sea hydrothermal vents.

85. Genetic Disorders: Genetic mutations underlie numerous disorders like cystic fibrosis, sickle cell anemia, and muscular dystrophy.

86. Conservation Behavior: Analyzing the behavioral ecology of endangered species informs habitat preservation and restoration efforts.

87. Neuroplasticity in Rehabilitation: Harnessing the brain’s ability to rewire itself offers promising avenues for post-injury or post-stroke rehabilitation.

88. Disease Vectors: Understanding how mosquitoes transmit diseases like malaria and Zika virus is critical for disease prevention strategies.

89. Biochemical Pathways: Mapping metabolic pathways in cells provides insights into disease development and potential therapeutic targets.

90. Invasive Species Impact: Examining the effects of invasive species on native ecosystems guides management strategies to mitigate their impact.

91. Molecular Immunology: Studying the intricate immune response mechanisms aids in the development of vaccines and immunotherapies.

92. Plant-Microbe Symbiosis: Investigating how plants form partnerships with beneficial microbes enhances crop productivity and sustainability.

93. Cancer Immunotherapy: Harnessing the immune system to target and eliminate cancer cells offers new avenues for cancer treatment.

94. Evolution of Flight: Analyzing the adaptations leading to the development of flight in birds and insects sheds light on evolutionary innovation.

95. Genomic Diversity in Human Populations: Exploring genetic variations among different human populations informs ancestry, migration, and susceptibility to diseases.

96. Hormonal Regulation: Understanding the role of hormones in growth, reproduction, and homeostasis provides insights into physiological processes.

97. Conservation Genetics in Plant Conservation: Genetic diversity assessment helps guide efforts to conserve rare and endangered plant species.

98. Neuronal Communication: Investigating neurotransmitter systems and synaptic transmission enhances our comprehension of brain function.

99. Microbial Biogeography: Mapping the distribution of microorganisms across ecosystems aids in understanding their ecological roles and interactions.

100. Gene Therapy: Developing methods to replace or repair defective genes offers potential treatments for genetic disorders.

Scientific Hypothesis Statement Examples

This section offers diverse examples of scientific hypothesis statements that cover a range of biological topics. Each example briefly describes the subject matter and the potential implications of the hypothesis.

• Genetic Mutations and Disease: Certain genetic mutations lead to increased susceptibility to autoimmune disorders, providing insights into potential treatment strategies.
• Microplastics in Aquatic Ecosystems: Elevated microplastic levels disrupt aquatic food chains, affecting biodiversity and human health through bioaccumulation.
• Bacterial Quorum Sensing: Inhibition of quorum sensing in pathogenic bacteria demonstrates a potential avenue for novel antimicrobial therapies.
• Climate Change and Phenology: Rising temperatures alter flowering times in plants, impacting pollinator interactions and ecosystem dynamics.
• Neuroplasticity and Learning: The brain’s adaptability facilitates learning through synaptic modifications, elucidating educational strategies for improved cognition.
• CRISPR-Cas9 in Agriculture: CRISPR-engineered crops with enhanced pest resistance showcase a sustainable approach to improving agricultural productivity.
• Invasive Species Impact on Predators: The introduction of invasive prey disrupts predator-prey relationships, triggering cascading effects in terrestrial ecosystems.
• Microbial Contributions to Soil Health: Beneficial soil microbes enhance nutrient availability and plant growth, promoting sustainable agriculture practices.
• Marine Protected Areas: Examining the effectiveness of marine protected areas reveals their role in preserving biodiversity and restoring marine ecosystems.
• Epigenetic Regulation of Cancer: Epigenetic modifications play a pivotal role in cancer development, highlighting potential therapeutic targets for precision medicine.

Testable Hypothesis Statement Examples in Biology

Testability hypothesis is a critical aspect of a hypothesis. These examples are formulated in a way that allows them to be tested through experiments or observations. They focus on cause-and-effect relationships that can be verified or refuted.

• Impact of Light Intensity on Plant Growth: Increasing light intensity accelerates photosynthesis rates and enhances overall plant growth.
• Effect of Temperature on Enzyme Activity: Higher temperatures accelerate enzyme activity up to an optimal point, beyond which denaturation occurs.
• Microbial Diversity in Soil pH Gradients: Soil pH influences microbial composition, with acidic soils favoring certain bacterial taxa over others.
• Predation Impact on Prey Behavior: The presence of predators induces changes in prey behavior, resulting in altered foraging strategies and vigilance levels.
• Chemical Communication in Marine Organisms: Investigating chemical cues reveals the role of allelopathy in competition among marine organisms.
• Social Hierarchy in Animal Groups: Observing animal groups establishes a correlation between social rank and access to resources within the group.
• Effect of Habitat Fragmentation on Pollinator Diversity: Fragmented habitats reduce pollinator species richness, affecting plant reproductive success.
• Dietary Effects on Gut Microbiota Composition: Dietary shifts influence gut microbiota diversity and metabolic functions, impacting host health.
• Hybridization Impact on Plant Fitness: Hybrid plants exhibit varied fitness levels depending on the combination of parent species.
• Human Impact on Coral Bleaching: Analyzing coral reefs under different anthropogenic stresses identifies the main factors driving coral bleaching events.

Scientific Investigation Hypothesis Statement Examples in Biology

This section emphasizes hypotheses that are part of broader scientific investigations. They involve studying complex interactions or phenomena and often contribute to our understanding of larger biological systems.

• Genomic Variation in Human Disease Susceptibility: Genetic analysis identifies variations associated with increased risk of common diseases, aiding personalized medicine.
• Behavioral Responses to Temperature Shifts in Insects: Investigating insect responses to temperature fluctuations reveals adaptation strategies to climate change.
• Endocrine Disruptors and Amphibian Development: Experimental exposure to endocrine disruptors elucidates their role in amphibian developmental abnormalities.
• Microbial Succession in Decomposition: Tracking microbial communities during decomposition uncovers the succession patterns of different decomposer species.
• Gene Expression Patterns in Stress Response: Studying gene expression profiles unveils the molecular mechanisms underlying stress responses in plants.
• Effect of Urbanization on Bird Song Patterns: Urban noise pollution influences bird song frequency and complexity, impacting communication and mate attraction.
• Nutrient Availability and Algal Blooms: Investigating nutrient loading in aquatic systems sheds light on factors triggering harmful algal blooms.
• Host-Parasite Coevolution: Analyzing genetic changes in hosts and parasites over time uncovers coevolutionary arms races and adaptation.
• Ecosystem Productivity and Biodiversity: Linking ecosystem productivity to biodiversity patterns reveals the role of species interactions in ecosystem stability.
• Habitat Preference of Invasive Species: Studying the habitat selection of invasive species identifies factors promoting their establishment and spread.

Hypothesis Statement Examples in Biology Research

These examples are tailored for research hypothesis studies. They highlight hypotheses that drive focused research questions, often leading to specific experimental designs and data collection methods.

• Microbial Community Structure in Human Gut: Investigating microbial diversity and composition unveils the role of gut microbiota in human health.
• Plant-Pollinator Mutualisms: Hypothesizing reciprocal benefits in plant-pollinator interactions highlights the role of coevolution in shaping ecosystems.
• Chemical Defense Mechanisms in Insects: Predicting the correlation between insect feeding behavior and chemical defenses explores natural selection pressures.
• Evolutionary Significance of Mimicry: Examining mimicry in organisms demonstrates its adaptive value in predator-prey relationships and survival.
• Neurological Basis of Mate Choice: Proposing neural mechanisms underlying mate choice behaviors uncovers the role of sensory cues in reproductive success.
• Mycorrhizal Symbiosis Impact on Plant Growth: Investigating mycorrhizal colonization effects on plant biomass addresses nutrient exchange dynamics.
• Social Learning in Primates: Formulating a hypothesis on primate social learning explores the transmission of knowledge and cultural behaviors.
• Effect of Pollution on Fish Behavior: Anticipating altered behaviors due to pollution exposure highlights ecological consequences on aquatic ecosystems.
• Coevolution of Flowers and Pollinators: Hypothesizing mutual adaptations between flowers and pollinators reveals intricate ecological relationships.
• Genetic Basis of Disease Resistance in Plants: Identifying genetic markers associated with disease resistance enhances crop breeding programs.

Prediction Hypothesis Statement Examples in Biology

Predictive simple hypothesis involve making educated guesses about how variables might interact or behave under specific conditions. These examples showcase hypotheses that anticipate outcomes based on existing knowledge.

• Pesticide Impact on Insect Abundance: Predicting decreased insect populations due to pesticide application underscores ecological ramifications.
• Climate Change and Migratory Bird Patterns: Anticipating shifts in migratory routes of birds due to climate change informs conservation strategies.
• Ocean Acidification Effect on Coral Calcification: Predicting reduced coral calcification rates due to ocean acidification unveils threats to coral reefs.
• Disease Spread in Crowded Bird Roosts: Predicting accelerated disease transmission in densely populated bird roosts highlights disease ecology dynamics.
• Eutrophication Impact on Freshwater Biodiversity: Anticipating decreased freshwater biodiversity due to eutrophication emphasizes conservation efforts.
• Herbivore Impact on Plant Species Diversity: Predicting reduced plant diversity in areas with high herbivore pressure elucidates ecosystem dynamics.
• Predator-Prey Population Cycles: Predicting cyclical fluctuations in predator and prey populations showcases the role of trophic interactions.
• Climate Change and Plant Phenology: Anticipating earlier flowering times due to climate change demonstrates the influence of temperature on plant life cycles.
• Antibiotic Resistance in Bacterial Communities: Predicting increased antibiotic resistance due to overuse forewarns the need for responsible antibiotic use.
• Human Impact on Avian Nesting Success: Predicting decreased avian nesting success due to habitat fragmentation highlights conservation priorities.

How to Write a Biology Hypothesis – Step by Step Guide

A hypothesis in biology is a critical component of scientific research that proposes an explanation for a specific biological phenomenon. Writing a well-formulated hypothesis sets the foundation for conducting experiments, making observations, and drawing meaningful conclusions. Follow this step-by-step guide to create a strong biology hypothesis:

1. Identify the Phenomenon: Clearly define the biological phenomenon you intend to study. This could be a question, a pattern, an observation, or a problem in the field of biology.

2. Conduct Background Research: Before formulating a hypothesis, gather relevant information from scientific literature. Understand the existing knowledge about the topic to ensure your hypothesis builds upon previous research.

3. State the Independent and Dependent Variables: Identify the variables involved in the phenomenon. The independent variable is what you manipulate or change, while the dependent variable is what you measure as a result of the changes.

4. Formulate a Testable Question: Based on your background research, create a specific and testable question that addresses the relationship between the variables. This question will guide the formulation of your hypothesis.

5. Craft the Hypothesis: A hypothesis should be a clear and concise statement that predicts the outcome of your experiment or observation. It should propose a cause-and-effect relationship between the independent and dependent variables.

6. Use the “If-Then” Structure: Formulate your hypothesis using the “if-then” structure. The “if” part states the independent variable and the condition you’re manipulating, while the “then” part predicts the outcome for the dependent variable.

7. Make it Falsifiable: A good hypothesis should be testable and capable of being proven false. There should be a way to gather data that either supports or contradicts the hypothesis.

8. Be Specific and Precise: Avoid vague language and ensure that your hypothesis is specific and precise. Clearly define the variables and the expected relationship between them.

9. Revise and Refine: Once you’ve formulated your hypothesis, review it to ensure it accurately reflects your research question and variables. Revise as needed to make it more concise and focused.

10. Seek Feedback: Share your hypothesis with peers, mentors, or colleagues to get feedback. Constructive input can help you refine your hypothesis further.

Tips for Writing a Biology Hypothesis Statement

Writing a biology alternative hypothesis statement requires precision and clarity to ensure that your research is well-structured and testable. Here are some valuable tips to help you create effective and scientifically sound hypothesis statements:

1. Be Clear and Concise: Your hypothesis statement should convey your idea succinctly. Avoid unnecessary jargon or complex language that might confuse your audience.

2. Address Cause and Effect: A hypothesis suggests a cause-and-effect relationship between variables. Clearly state how changes in the independent variable are expected to affect the dependent variable.

3. Use Specific Language: Define your variables precisely. Use specific terms to describe the independent and dependent variables, as well as any conditions or measurements.

4. Follow the “If-Then” Structure: Use the classic “if-then” structure to frame your hypothesis. State the independent variable (if) and the expected outcome (then). This format clarifies the relationship you’re investigating.

5. Make it Testable: Your hypothesis must be capable of being tested through experimentation or observation. Ensure that there is a measurable and observable way to determine if it’s true or false.

6. Avoid Ambiguity: Eliminate vague terms that can be interpreted in multiple ways. Be precise in your language to avoid confusion.

7. Base it on Existing Knowledge: Ground your hypothesis in prior research or existing scientific theories. It should build upon established knowledge and contribute new insights.

8. Predict a Direction: Your hypothesis should predict a specific outcome. Whether you anticipate an increase, decrease, or a difference, your hypothesis should make a clear prediction.

9. Be Focused: Keep your hypothesis statement focused on one specific idea or relationship. Avoid trying to address too many variables or concepts in a single statement.

10. Consider Alternative Explanations: Acknowledge alternative explanations for your observations or outcomes. This demonstrates critical thinking and a thorough understanding of your field.

11. Avoid Value Judgments: Refrain from including value judgments or opinions in your hypothesis. Stick to objective and measurable factors.

12. Be Realistic: Ensure that your hypothesis is plausible and feasible. It should align with what is known about the topic and be achievable within the scope of your research.

13. Refine and Revise: Draft multiple versions of your hypothesis statement and refine them. Discuss and seek feedback from mentors, peers, or advisors to enhance its clarity and precision.

14. Align with Research Goals: Your hypothesis should align with the overall goals of your research project. Make sure it addresses the specific question or problem you’re investigating.

15. Be Open to Revision: As you conduct research and gather data, be open to revising your hypothesis if the evidence suggests a different outcome than initially predicted.

Remember, a well-crafted biology science hypothesis statement serves as the foundation of your research and guides your experimental design and data analysis. It’s essential to invest time and effort in formulating a clear, focused, and testable hypothesis that contributes to the advancement of scientific knowledge.

What Are Examples of a Hypothesis?

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A hypothesis is an explanation for a set of observations. Here are examples of a scientific hypothesis.

Although you could state a scientific hypothesis in various ways, most hypotheses are either "If, then" statements or forms of the null hypothesis . The null hypothesis is sometimes called the "no difference" hypothesis. The null hypothesis is good for experimentation because it's simple to disprove. If you disprove a null hypothesis, that is evidence for a relationship between the variables you are examining.

Examples of Null Hypotheses

• Hyperactivity is unrelated to eating sugar.
• All daisies have the same number of petals.
• The number of pets in a household is unrelated to the number of people living in it.
• A person's preference for a shirt is unrelated to its color.

Examples of If, Then Hypotheses

• If you get at least 6 hours of sleep, you will do better on tests than if you get less sleep.
• If you drop a ball, it will fall toward the ground.
• If you drink coffee before going to bed, then it will take longer to fall asleep.
• If you cover a wound with a bandage, then it will heal with less scarring.

Improving a Hypothesis to Make It Testable

You may wish to revise your first hypothesis in order to make it easier to design an experiment to test. For example, let's say you have a bad breakout the morning after eating a lot of greasy food. You may wonder if there is a correlation between eating greasy food and getting pimples. You propose the hypothesis:

Eating greasy food causes pimples.

Next, you need to design an experiment to test this hypothesis. Let's say you decide to eat greasy food every day for a week and record the effect on your face. Then, as a control, you'll avoid greasy food for the next week and see what happens. Now, this is not a good experiment because it does not take into account other factors such as hormone levels, stress, sun exposure, exercise, or any number of other variables that might conceivably affect your skin.

The problem is that you cannot assign cause to your effect . If you eat french fries for a week and suffer a breakout, can you definitely say it was the grease in the food that caused it? Maybe it was the salt. Maybe it was the potato. Maybe it was unrelated to diet. You can't prove your hypothesis. It's much easier to disprove a hypothesis.

So, let's restate the hypothesis to make it easier to evaluate the data:

Getting pimples is unaffected by eating greasy food.

So, if you eat fatty food every day for a week and suffer breakouts and then don't break out the week that you avoid greasy food, you can be pretty sure something is up. Can you disprove the hypothesis? Probably not, since it is so hard to assign cause and effect. However, you can make a strong case that there is some relationship between diet and acne.

If your skin stays clear for the entire test, you may decide to accept your hypothesis . Again, you didn't prove or disprove anything, which is fine

• Null Hypothesis Definition and Examples
• What Is a Hypothesis? (Science)
• What Are the Elements of a Good Hypothesis?
• Understanding Simple vs Controlled Experiments
• What Is a Testable Hypothesis?
• What 'Fail to Reject' Means in a Hypothesis Test
• Null Hypothesis Examples
• How To Design a Science Fair Experiment
• Scientific Method Vocabulary Terms
• Scientific Hypothesis Examples
• Six Steps of the Scientific Method
• An Example of a Hypothesis Test
• Definition of a Hypothesis
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• Null Hypothesis and Alternative Hypothesis

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2.2: Standard Statistical Hypothesis Testing

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• Luke J. Harmon
• University of Idaho

Standard hypothesis testing approaches focus almost entirely on rejecting null hypotheses. In the framework (usually referred to as the frequentist approach to statistics) one first defines a null hypothesis. This null hypothesis represents your expectation if some pattern, such as a difference among groups, is not present, or if some process of interest were not occurring. For example, perhaps you are interested in comparing the mean body size of two species of lizards, an anole and a gecko. Our null hypothesis would be that the two species do not differ in body size. The alternative, which one can conclude by rejecting that null hypothesis, is that one species is larger than the other. Another example might involve investigating two variables, like body size and leg length, across a set of lizard species 1 . Here the null hypothesis would be that there is no relationship between body size and leg length. The alternative hypothesis, which again represents the situation where the phenomenon of interest is actually occurring, is that there is a relationship with body size and leg length. For frequentist approaches, the alternative hypothesis is always the negation of the null hypothesis; as you will see below, other approaches allow one to compare the fit of a set of models without this restriction and choose the best amongst them.

The next step is to define a test statistic, some way of measuring the patterns in the data. In the two examples above, we would consider test statistics that measure the difference in mean body size among our two species of lizards, or the slope of the relationship between body size and leg length, respectively. One can then compare the value of this test statistic in the data to the expectation of this test statistic under the null hypothesis. The relationship between the test statistic and its expectation under the null hypothesis is captured by a P-value. The P-value is the probability of obtaining a test statistic at least as extreme as the actual test statistic in the case where the null hypothesis is true. You can think of the P-value as a measure of how probable it is that you would obtain your data in a universe where the null hypothesis is true. In other words, the P-value measures how probable it is under the null hypothesis that you would obtain a test statistic at least as extreme as what you see in the data. In particular, if the P-value is very large, say P  = 0.94, then it is extremely likely that your data are compatible with this null hypothesis.

If the test statistic is very different from what one would expect under the null hypothesis, then the P-value will be small. This means that we are unlikely to obtain the test statistic seen in the data if the null hypothesis were true. In that case, we reject the null hypothesis as long as P is less than some value chosen in advance. This value is the significance threshold, α , and is almost always set to α  = 0.05. By contrast, if that probability is large, then there is nothing “special” about your data, at least from the standpoint of your null hypothesis. The test statistic is within the range expected under the null hypothesis, and we fail to reject that null hypothesis. Note the careful language here – in a standard frequentist framework, you never accept the null hypothesis, you simply fail to reject it.

Getting back to our lizard-flipping example, we can use a frequentist approach. In this case, our particular example has a name; this is a binomial test, which assesses whether a given event with two outcomes has a certain probability of success. In this case, we are interested in testing the null hypothesis that our lizard is a fair flipper; that is, that the probability of heads p H  = 0.5. The binomial test uses the number of “successes” (we will use the number of heads, H  = 63) as a test statistic. We then ask whether this test statistic is either much larger or much smaller than we might expect under our null hypothesis. So, our null hypothesis is that p H  = 0.5; our alternative, then, is that p H takes some other value: p H  ≠ 0.5.

To carry out the test, we first need to consider how many "successes" we should expect if the null hypothesis were true. We consider the distribution of our test statistic (the number of heads) under our null hypothesis ( p H  = 0.5). This distribution is a binomial distribution (Figure 2.1).

We can use the known probabilities of the binomial distribution to calculate our P-value. We want to know the probability of obtaining a result at least as extreme as our data when drawing from a binomial distribution with parameters p  = 0.5 and n  = 100. We calculate the area of this distribution that lies to the right of 63. This area, P  = 0.003, can be obtained either from a table, from statistical software, or by using a relatively simple calculation. The value, 0.003, represents the probability of obtaining at least 63 heads out of 100 trials with p H  = 0.5. This number is the P-value from our binomial test. Because we only calculated the area of our null distribution in one tail (in this case, the right, where values are greater than or equal to 63), then this is actually a one-tailed test, and we are only considering part of our null hypothesis where p H  > 0.5. Such an approach might be suitable in some cases, but more typically we need to multiply this number by 2 to get a two-tailed test; thus, P  = 0.006. This two-tailed P-value of 0.006 includes the possibility of results as extreme as our test statistic in either direction, either too many or too few heads. Since P < 0.05, our chosen α value, we reject the null hypothesis, and conclude that we have an unfair lizard.

In biology, null hypotheses play a critical role in many statistical analyses. So why not end this chapter now? One issue is that biological null hypotheses are almost always uninteresting. They often describe the situation where patterns in the data occur only by chance. However, if you are comparing living species to each other, there are almost always some differences between them. In fact, for biology, null hypotheses are quite often obviously false. For example, two different species living in different habitats are not identical, and if we measure them enough we will discover this fact. From this point of view, both outcomes of a standard hypothesis test are unenlightening. One either rejects a silly hypothesis that was probably known to be false from the start, or one “fails to reject” this null hypothesis 2 . There is much more information to be gained by estimating parameter values and carrying out model selection in a likelihood or Bayesian framework, as we will see below. Still, frequentist statistical approaches are common, have their place in our toolbox, and will come up in several sections of this book.

One key concept in standard hypothesis testing is the idea of statistical error. Statistical errors come in two flavors: type I and type II errors. Type I errors occur when the null hypothesis is true but the investigator mistakenly rejects it. Standard hypothesis testing controls type I errors using a parameter, α , which defines the accepted rate of type I errors. For example, if α  = 0.05, one should expect to commit a type I error about 5% of the time. When multiple standard hypothesis tests are carried out, investigators often “correct” their P-values using Bonferroni correction. If you do this, then there is only a 5% chance of a single type I error across all of the tests being considered. This singular focus on type I errors, however, has a cost. One can also commit type II errors, when the null hypothesis is false but one fails to reject it. The rate of type II errors in statistical tests can be extremely high. While statisticians do take care to create approaches that have high power, traditional hypothesis testing usually fixes type I errors at 5% while type II error rates remain unknown. There are simple ways to calculate type II error rates (e.g. power analyses) but these are only rarely carried out. Furthermore, Bonferroni correction dramatically increases the type II error rate. This is important because – as stated by Perneger (1998) – “… type II errors are no less false than type I errors.” This extreme emphasis on controlling type I errors at the expense of type II errors is, to me, the main weakness of the frequentist approach 3 .

I will cover some examples of the frequentist approach in this book, mainly when discussing traditional methods like phylogenetic independent contrasts (PICs). Also, one of the model selection approaches used frequently in this book, likelihood ratio tests, rely on a standard frequentist set-up with null and alternative hypotheses.

However, there are two good reasons to look for better ways to do comparative statistics. First, as stated above, standard methods rely on testing null hypotheses that – for evolutionary questions - are usually very likely, a priori, to be false. For a relevant example, consider a study comparing the rate of speciation between two clades of carnivores. The null hypothesis is that the two clades have exactly equal rates of speciation – which is almost certainly false, although we might question how different the two rates might be. Second, in my opinion, standard frequentist methods place too much emphasis on P-values and not enough on the size of statistical effects. A small P-value could reflect either a large effect or very large sample sizes or both.

In summary, frequentist statistical methods are common in comparative statistics but can be limiting. I will discuss these methods often in this book, mainly due to their prevalent use in the field. At the same time, we will look for alternatives whenever possible.

Statistics Made Easy

4 Examples of Hypothesis Testing in Real Life

In statistics, hypothesis tests are used to test whether or not some hypothesis about a population parameter is true.

To perform a hypothesis test in the real world, researchers will obtain a random sample from the population and perform a hypothesis test on the sample data, using a null and alternative hypothesis:

• Null Hypothesis (H 0 ): The sample data occurs purely from chance.
• Alternative Hypothesis (H A ): The sample data is influenced by some non-random cause.

If the p-value of the hypothesis test is less than some significance level (e.g. α = .05), then we can reject the null hypothesis and conclude that we have sufficient evidence to say that the alternative hypothesis is true.

The following examples provide several situations where hypothesis tests are used in the real world.

Example 1: Biology

Hypothesis tests are often used in biology to determine whether some new treatment, fertilizer, pesticide, chemical, etc. causes increased growth, stamina, immunity, etc. in plants or animals.

For example, suppose a biologist believes that a certain fertilizer will cause plants to grow more during a one-month period than they normally do, which is currently 20 inches. To test this, she applies the fertilizer to each of the plants in her laboratory for one month.

She then performs a hypothesis test using the following hypotheses:

• H 0 : μ = 20 inches (the fertilizer will have no effect on the mean plant growth)
• H A : μ > 20 inches (the fertilizer will cause mean plant growth to increase)

If the p-value of the test is less than some significance level (e.g. α = .05), then she can reject the null hypothesis and conclude that the fertilizer leads to increased plant growth.

Example 2: Clinical Trials

Hypothesis tests are often used in clinical trials to determine whether some new treatment, drug, procedure, etc. causes improved outcomes in patients.

For example, suppose a doctor believes that a new drug is able to reduce blood pressure in obese patients. To test this, he may measure the blood pressure of 40 patients before and after using the new drug for one month.

He then performs a hypothesis test using the following hypotheses:

• H 0 : μ after = μ before (the mean blood pressure is the same before and after using the drug)
• H A : μ after < μ before (the mean blood pressure is less after using the drug)

If the p-value of the test is less than some significance level (e.g. α = .05), then he can reject the null hypothesis and conclude that the new drug leads to reduced blood pressure.

Example 3: Advertising Spend

Hypothesis tests are often used in business to determine whether or not some new advertising campaign, marketing technique, etc. causes increased sales.

For example, suppose a company believes that spending more money on digital advertising leads to increased sales. To test this, the company may increase money spent on digital advertising during a two-month period and collect data to see if overall sales have increased.

They may perform a hypothesis test using the following hypotheses:

• H 0 : μ after = μ before (the mean sales is the same before and after spending more on advertising)
• H A : μ after > μ before (the mean sales increased after spending more on advertising)

If the p-value of the test is less than some significance level (e.g. α = .05), then the company can reject the null hypothesis and conclude that increased digital advertising leads to increased sales.

Example 4: Manufacturing

Hypothesis tests are also used often in manufacturing plants to determine if some new process, technique, method, etc. causes a change in the number of defective products produced.

For example, suppose a certain manufacturing plant wants to test whether or not some new method changes the number of defective widgets produced per month, which is currently 250. To test this, they may measure the mean number of defective widgets produced before and after using the new method for one month.

They can then perform a hypothesis test using the following hypotheses:

• H 0 : μ after = μ before (the mean number of defective widgets is the same before and after using the new method)
• H A : μ after ≠ μ before (the mean number of defective widgets produced is different before and after using the new method)

If the p-value of the test is less than some significance level (e.g. α = .05), then the plant can reject the null hypothesis and conclude that the new method leads to a change in the number of defective widgets produced per month.

Additional Resources

Introduction to Hypothesis Testing Introduction to the One Sample t-test Introduction to the Two Sample t-test Introduction to the Paired Samples t-test

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