montserrat volcano 1995 case study

• The 1995 Soufrière Hills Eruption

In 1995, the Soufrière Hills volcano on the Caribbean island of Montserrat became active. As a result, half of Montserrat became uninhabitable. As the volcano had been dormant for over 3 centuries and had been deemed inactive, this came as a devastating blow to the small island and its inhabitants.

Location And Geography

The Soufriere Hills volcano is situated in the Caribbean Island of Montserrat. The Island is a British Overseas Territory and is a part of the Leeward Islands which is a chain of islands known as the Lower Antilles. The total land area is about 100 square kilometers. The Soufrière Hills Volcano is part of the Lesser Antilles Volcanic Arc and is situated to the south of the island. The capital city was called Plymouth before it was buried in debris after the eruption.

History And Timeline

The early history of the volcano is relatively unknown due to inconsistent record keeping. The first explosive eruption is estimated to have been around 2,500 years ago. The last known eruption was in the 16th century where anywhere between 25 to 65 million cubic meters of lava erupted at Castle Peak. The 1995 eruption was preceded by seismic activity recorded in 1897, 1933 and lastly in 1966. The eruption in 1995 was also preceded by seismic activity but what ensued was mostly unexpected. Earthquake swarms had first been detected in 1992 and again in 1994.

Eruption Of The Soufrière Hills Volcano

The eruption of ash in July 1995 prompted an evacuation of almost 5,000 residents. The volcano grew a new dome on November 1995. By January 1996, the old dome was rapidly buried and between March and September of the same year, the first pyroclastic flows poured down the Tar river valley. This created a new delta and in April the south of the island was evacuated. The capital city of Plymouth was also abandoned. Pyroclastic flows and eruption columns are the main features of this volcano. They occur when the dome collapses or explodes. Tonnes of hot rock, lava and ash explode from the crater in a cloud moving at speeds of up to 100 miles per hour with temperatures reaching over 400°C. The fast moving cloud annihilates and incinerates everything in its way.

Aftermath Of The Eruption

The eruption left the southern two-thirds of the islands completely inhabitable. Pyroclastic flows still pour down the slopes of the volcano. The eruptions continued after the volcano became active. The disaster resulted in the collapse of the tourism and also the local rice processing industries. Unemployment shot up from a manageable 7% to over 50%. Agricultural activities became nearly impossible and living conditions were further worsened by respiratory problems caused by the spewing ash. The aid and relief activities were spearheaded by both British and Montserrat governments.

The 1995 eruption changed the landscape and living conditions of the Montserrat Island completely. It destroyed the economy and forced most residents to abandon the city. As a result of this eruption, several monitoring initiatives were undertaken like the establishment of an extensive seismograph network. The volcano is still active and subject to eruptions from time to time. It remains to be seen how long it will take until the island is habitable again.

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Soufrière Hills 1995-present

Soufrière Hills in Montserrat has been erupting since 1995.

Chronic Medical Aspects

Crystalline silica in volcanic ash, when inhaled, adversely affects health..

The extended eruption of a lava dome at Soufrière Hills Volcano that began in 1995 generated large amounts of fine ash by (1) explosive events from the dome; and (2) frequent collapse of unstable parts of the growing dome that generated pyroclastic flows and associated plumes of ash. A detailed study of ash from both types of events determined that the sub-10 micron fraction of ash from the pyroclastic flows consisted of 10-24 percent crystalline silica , the highest yet documented for a historical eruption (Baxter and others, 1999). In contrast, the sub-10 micron fraction of ash from the explosive events consisted of 3-6 percent crystalline silica. The free silica minerals are produced within the lava dome over a period of many days or weeks.

Monitoring of the concentration of airborne respirable dust and ash around the volcano beginning in August 1997 showed that concentrations of ash have regularly exceeded 50 micrograms/m3 per 24-hour rolling average in areas subject to frequent ashfall. The exposures to cristobalite sometimes reached the 0.05 mg/m3 averaged over an 8-hour workday. Also, the monitoring consistently showed increased concentrations of airborne dust whenever there was human activity.

This study raises concern that exposure to long-lived eruptions of lava domes that produce persistent ashfall over many years may result in adverse health effects in affected communities.

Water Supply

The eruptions of Soufrière Hills during 1997 produced chemical contamination of rainwater and surface water. Water sampling in January 1997 indicated highly acidic water with high concentrations of sulphates, chloride and fluorides. Similar results were recorded until June 1997 although all fell within World Health Organization recommended levels for all measured components (see Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program ).

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Soufrière Hills eruption, Montserrat, 1995 - 1997: volcanic earthquake locations and fault plane solutions

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A total of 9242 seismic events, recorded since the start of the eruption on Montserrat in July 1995, have been uniformly relocated with station travel-time corrections. Early seismicity was generally diffuse under southern Montserrat, and mostly restricted to depths less than 7 km. However, a NE-SW alignment of epicentres beneath the NE flank of the volcano emerged in one swarm of volcano-tectonic earthquakes (VTs) and later nests of VT hypocentres developed beneath the volcano and at a separated location, under St. George's Hill. The overall spatial distribution of hypocentres suggests a minimum depth of about 5 km for any substantial magma body. Activity associated with the opening of a conduit to the surface became increasingly shallow, with foci concentrated below the crater and, after dome building started in Fall 1995, VTs diminished and repetitive swarms of ‘hybrid’ seismic events became predominant. By late-1996, as magma effusion rates escalated, most seismic events were originating within a volume about 2 km diameter which extended up to the surface from only about 3 km depth - the diminution of shear failure earthquakes suggests the pathway for magma discharge had become effectively unconstricted. Individual and composite fault plane solutions have been determined for a few larger earthquakes. We postulate that localised extensional stress conditions near the linear VT activity, due to interaction with stresses in the overriding lithospheric plate, may encourage normal fault growth and promote sector weaknesses in the volcano.

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Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, West Indies.

Soufrière Hills Volcano , Montserrat, West Indies. Synopsis of events by former Montserrat resident, photographer and Author Lally Brown. 

Where is Montserrat? Montserrat is a small tropical island of approximately 40 sq. miles in the Caribbean, fifteen minutes flying time from Antigua. It is a British Overseas Territory and relies on UK Government aid money to survive. It is of volcanic origin with the Soufrière Hills above the capital of Plymouth the highest point of the island.

How and when did the volcano erupt? Prior to 1995 the volcano in the Soufrière Hills had been dormant for 350 years but on the morning of 18th July 1995 steam and fine ash could be seen coming from the flanks of the Soufrière Hills accompanied by a roaring sound, described as being like a jet engine. In the capital of Plymouth there was a strong smell of ‘bad eggs’ the hydrogen sulphide being emitted by the awakening volcano.

Montserrat was totally unprepared. No-one had ever imagined the dormant volcano would erupt. The Soufrière Hills was the breadbasket of the island where farmers worked the fertile agricultural land, while the busy capital and island port of Plymouth nestled at the foot of the hills.

Scientists arrived from the University of the West Indies to assess the situation. They said the volcano was producing ‘acoustic energy explosions’ at approximately half-hour intervals sending ash and vapour three to four hundred metres into the air.

What happened next? Before July 1995 Montserrat was a thriving tourist destination with a population of 10,000 people but over several weeks there was a mass exodus from the island and a run on the banks with people withdrawing cash.

Several areas near the vent that had opened up in the hillside were declared exclusion zones and residents were evacuated to the safe north of the island into schools and churches.

It was evident the volcano was becoming more active when a series of small earthquakes shook the island. Heavy rain from passing hurricanes brought mudflows down the hillsides into Plymouth. Sulphide dioxide emissions increased, a sure sign of heightened activity.

The scientists hoped to be able to give a six hour warning of any eruptive activity but when they discovered the magma was less than 1 km below the dome they said this could not be guaranteed, saying there was a 50% chance of an imminent eruption. An emergency order was signed by the Governor and new exclusion zones were drawn with people evacuated north.

The years 1995 to 1997 The Soufrière Hills volcano became increasingly active and more dangerous.

Montserrat Volcano Observatory (MVO) was established to monitor activity and advise the Government.

December 1995 saw the first pyroclastic flow from the volcano.

The capital of Plymouth was evacuated for the last time in April 1996.

Acid rain damaged plants.

Two-thirds of Montserrat became the new exclusion zone , including the fertile agricultural land.

Population dropped to 4,000 with residents leaving for UK or other Caribbean islands.

Frequent heavy ashfalls covered the island with blankets of thick ash.

On the seismic drums at the MVO swarms of small hybrid earthquakes frequently registered. Also volcano-tectonic earthquakes (indicating fracture or slippage of rock) and ‘Broadband’ tremors (indicating movement of magma).

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MVO Seismograph printout Dec 1997

‘Spines’ grew rapidly out of the lava dome to heights of up to 15 metres before collapsing back.

Rainfall caused dangerous mudflows down the flanks of the Soufrière Hills.

Temporary accommodation was built to house evacuees living in churches and schools.

25th June 1997 Black Wednesday For a period of twenty minutes at 12.59 pm the volcano erupted without warning with devastating consequences. A massive pyroclastic flow swept across the landscape and boulders up to 4 metres in diameter were thrown out of the volcano. Over 4 sq.km was destroyed including nine villages and two churches. The top 300ft had been blown off the lava dome. Tragically nineteen people were caught in the pyroclastic flow and died.

Post Office and War Memorial 1997

Lateral blast December 1997 Midnight on Christmas Day 1997 the MVO reported that hybrid earthquakes had merged into a near-continuous signal clipping the sides of the seismic drum. At 3am on Boxing Day there was a massive collapse of the dome. Approximately 55 million cubic metres of dome material shot down the flanks of the volcano into the sea. Travelling at speeds of 250-300 km per hour it took less than a minute to slice a 7 km wide arc of devastation across southern Montserrat. The evacuated villages of Patrick’s and O’Garros were blasted out of existence. A delta 2 km wide spilled into the sea causing a small tsunami .

Police checkpoint Montserrat

March 1999 After a year of apparent inactivity at the volcano the Scientists declared the risk to populated areas had fallen to levels of other Caribbean islands with dormant volcanoes. Arrangements were made to encourage overseas residents to return. Plans were put in place to reopen the abandoned airport.

2000 to 2003 One year after the volcano had been declared dormant there was a massive collapse of the dome, blamed on heavy rainfall.

In July 2001 another massive collapse of the dome described as ‘a significant eruption’ caused airports on neighbouring Caribbean islands to close temporarily due to the heavy ashfall they experienced. A Maritime Exclusion Zone was introduced around Montserrat and access to Plymouth and the airport prohibited.

Soufrière Hills volcano was now described as a ‘persistently active volcano’ that could continue for 10, 20 or 30 years. (ie possibly to 2032).

In July 2003 ‘the worst eruption to date’ took place, starting at 8 pm 12th July and continuing without pause until 4 am morning of 13th July. Over 100 metres in height disappeared from the mountain overnight. It was the largest historical dome collapse since activity began in July 1995.

A period of relative quiet followed.

2006 The second largest dome collapse took place with an ash cloud reaching a record 55,000 metres into the air. Mudflows down the flanks of the Soufrière Hills was extensive and tsunamis were reported on the islands of Guadeloupe and Antigua.

Another period of relative quiet followed.

Soufriere Hills volcano 2007

2010 Another partial dome collapse with pyroclastic flows reaching 400 metres into the sea and burying the old abandoned airport. There was extensive ashfall on neighbouring islands.

Again followed by a period of relative quiet.

2018 Although the Soufrière Hills volcano is described as ‘active’ it is currently relatively quiet. It is closely monitored by a team at the Montserrat Volcano Observatory (MVO). They advise the Government and residents on the state of the volcano.

Negative effects of the volcano:

·       Approximately two-thirds of Montserrat now inaccessible (exclusion zone);

·       Capital of Plymouth including hospital, government buildings, businesses, schools etc. buried under ash;

·       Fertile farming land in the south in exclusion zone and buried under ash;

·       Population reduced from 10,000 to 4,000;

·       Businesses left Montserrat;

·       Tourism badly affected;

·       Concern over long term health problems due to ash;

·       Volcano Stress Syndrome diagnosed;

·       Huge financial cost to British Tax Payer (£400 million in aid);

·       Loss of houses, often not insured;

·       Relocation to the north of Montserrat by residents from the south.

Positive effects:

·       Tourists visiting Montserrat to see the volcano, MVO and Plymouth, now described as ‘Caribbean Pompeii’;

·       Geothermal energy being investigated;

·       Sand mining for export;

·       Plans for a new town and port in north;

·       New housing for displaced residents built;

·       New airport built (but can only accommodate small planes);

·       New Government Headquarters built;

·       Businesses opening up in the north of the island;

·       Ferry to Antigua operating.

Lally Brown

You can follow Lally Brown on Twitter.

If you are interested in reading a dramatic eyewitness account of life with this unpredictable and dangerous volcano then the book ‘THE VOLCANO, MONTSERRAT AND ME’ by Lally Brown is highly recommended. You can order a paper back or Kindle version on Amazon .

“As time moves on and memories fade, this unique, compelling book will serve as an important and accurate first-hand record of traumatic events, faithfully and sensitively recounted by Lally Brown.”

Prof. Willy Aspinall Cabot Professor in Natural Hazards and Risk Science, Bristol University.

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Volcanic Risk Reduction: Improved hazard management and emergency response planning leads to the reduction of volcanic risk worldwide

Submitting institution, unit of assessment, summary impact type, research subject area(s).

Mathematical Sciences:  Statistics Earth Sciences:  Geology Environmental Sciences:  Environmental Science and Management

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Summary of the impact.

Novel methods in applied physical volcanology, such as expert elicitation, and hazard and risk assessment, developed mostly during the ongoing volcanic crisis at Soufrière Hills Volcano (Montserrat), continues to inform decision making, worker and public safety, and management of administrative hazard zones that control access. These methodologies have been adopted worldwide using Montserrat Volcano Observatory (MVO) as an exemplar by the World Organisation of Volcano Observatories (WOVO). Bristol researchers have advised on institutional programmes and informed international agencies, such as the United Nations and the World Bank, to reduce risk presented by volcanic hazards, and save lives. Such is the impact of Bristol's work at MVO it has been studied by up to nearly one million school children in the UK since 2008.

Underpinning research

World class research in volcanology has been conducted at Bristol University under the leadership of Professor Steve Sparks FRS (appointed Channing Wills chair in 1989) and Professor Willy Aspinall (appointed Industrial (now Cabot) Chair in 2005) in the School of Earth Sciences. Over the past 30 years, but particularly since the onset of the eruption of Soufrière Hills (1995), they have focused on understanding both volcanic processes and the development of methodologies to assess volcanic hazard and risk with applications and impacts at global, regional, national and local scales. The research has been supported through a number of large grants from both the academic and private sectors including NERC [1,2] , World Bank/UN [3] , and the EC [4] .

The breadth and depth of both Sparks' and Aspinall's research into both physical volcanology [5,6] and volcanic risk [7-10] is considerable. Sparks alone has produced 103 papers relating to the eruption of Soufrière Hills, with 4,361 citations to date (source: Web of Science 06/11/2013). Research methodologies applied at MVO include, but are not limited to, field observations [5] , numerical modeling of pyroclastic density currents [6] , analogue laboratory experiments, expert elicitation [8] and risk assessment [7,9,10] , and in all of these fields Sparks and/or Aspinall are world leaders. Under their leadership, volcanological knowledge at Bristol has been integrated into systematic modelling of risk and mitigation using event trees, expert elicitation and stochastic model ensembles [7-10] to characterise volcanic risk and hazards with attendant uncertainties.

Aspinall and Sparks served as chief scientists extensively between the most active period of the eruption of Soufrière Hills (1995-1998). During their tenure, a different, unique, approach to compiling scientific advice in the face of uncertainty was pioneered by Aspinall through a procedure of structured `expert elicitation' [8] . This method pools the opinions of a group of specialists, using differential weights based on empirical testing of their abilities to judge accurately relevant uncertainties. The goal is to quantify these uncertainties for appropriate inclusion in decision making. Aspinall trialled this methodology at the start of the Soufrière Hills eruption — the first time a formal elicitation procedure was used in a live volcanic crisis [a] . Nearly twenty years on, volcano management in Montserrat stands as the longest-running application of the technique, which is now used by volcano observatories worldwide.

References to the research

[1] Sparks SAPPUR: (NERC) Scoping Study on the Analysis, Propagation and Communication of Probability, Uncertainty and Risk (2008-2009). £130K. http://www.bristol.ac.uk/brisk/sappur/

[2] Phillips STREVA: (NERC) Strengthening Resilience in Volcanic Areas (2011-2016). £3M. http://streva.ac.uk/

[3] Sparks VOGRIPA: (GFDRR/World Bank) Volcano Global Risk Identification and Analysis (2005-2014). £60K (initial). http://www.bristol.ac.uk/brisk/research/#vogripa

[4] Sparks VOLDIES: (EU) Dynamics of Volcanoes and their Impact on the Environment and Society (2009-2014). £2M. http://www.bristol.ac.uk/brisk/research/#voldies

[5] Roberston, R.E.A., Aspinall, W.P. , Herd, R.A., Norton, G.E., Sparks, R.S.J. and Young, S.R. (2000), The 1995-1998 eruption of the Soufriére Hills volcano, Montserrat, WI. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society London A , 358 (1770): 1619-1637. DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2000.0607.*

[6] Sparks, R.S.J. , Barclay, J., Calder, E.S., Herd, R.A., Luckett, R., Norton, G.E., Ritchie, L.J., Voight, B. and Woods, A.W. (2002), Generation of a debris avalanche and violent pyroclastic density current on 26 December 1997 (Boxing Day) at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat. In: Druitt TH and Kokelaar BP (Eds.) The eruption of the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat 1995 to 1999. Geological Society, London. Memoir 21, 409-434. DOI: 10.1144/GSL.MEM.2002.021.01.18.

[7] Sparks, R.S.J. and Aspinall, W.P. (2004), Volcanic Activity: Frontiers and Challenges. In: Forecasting, Prediction, and Risk Assessment. AGU Geophysical Monograph "State of the Planet". IUGG Monograph 19 (150): 359-374. DOI: 10.1029/150GM28.

[8] Aspinall, W.P. (2006), Structured elicitation of expert judgment for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions. In: Mader, H.M. et al. (Eds.) Statistics in Volcanology, pp 15-30. Can be supplied upon request.*

[9] Hill, B.E., Aspinall, W.P. , Connor, C.B., Godoy, A.R., Komorowski, J.C. and Nakada, S. (2009), Recommendations for assessing volcanic hazards at sites of nuclear installations. In: Connor, C.B., Chapman, N.A. and Connor, L.J. (Eds.) Volcanic and Tectonic Hazard Assessment for Nuclear Facilities . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 566-592. Can be supplied upon request.

[10] Sparks, R.S.J. , Aspinall, W.P. , Crosweller, H.S. and Hincks, T.K. (2012), Risk and uncertainty assessment of volcanic hazards. In: Rougier, J., Sparks, R.S.J. and Hill, L. (Eds.) Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards , pp 364-397. Can be supplied upon request.*

Details of the impact

In 1995, and almost overnight, Montserrat became dependent on volcanological expertise, with authorities needing advice to determine warning levels, travel restrictions and evacuations. Prior to this "there were no contingency plans on Montserrat or with the UK Government " for dealing with volcanic crises on the Island [a] . Sparks and Aspinall provided direct counsel, and it is their expertise and quality of research that continues to underpin the emergency management of the ongoing volcanic activity at Soufrière Hills. Nearly twenty years on, socio-economic impact is still being felt from both their early developmental work and in their subsequent roles, both on Montserrat and in the wider world.

Both Sparks and Aspinall contributed to the establishment of the MVO and were appointed as Chief Scientists from 1996-1998. Sparks and Aspinall were later commissioned in 1997 by the Governments of Montserrat and the UK to form a Risk Assessment Panel (RAP), which transformed into a Scientific Advisory Committee (SAC) in 2002, established by the Overseas Territories Department of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office [a] . The SAC is a group of independent international volcanologists whose role is to (i) evaluate evidence framed by the understanding of volcanic processes, (ii) forecast future activity, and (iii) assess hazards and risks with uncertainties by adopting a fully probabilistic approach. To do this, the SAC works with the MVO to provide advice to the UK and Montserrat Governments, and Civil Protection Groups, on long-term hazard and risk assessment and emergency management [b] . Sparks was the chair of both the RAP and SAC from 1997 until 2003 [c] , and later re-joined in 2011-present. Aspinall has been the facilitator of the risk assessment work by the RAP and SAC from 1997 until present [c] . Both Sparks and Aspinall " have been in the vanguard of the scientific response and assessment of risk and both have provided invariably sound advice and calm professionalism on which GoM and UKG have based their decisions, initially for the protection of the community during the main eruptive stage (1995-98) and subsequently for the re-development of housing and key facilities to enable the community to remain on island" [a] . For instance, their expertise has been used to quantify volcanic risk which " enabled the UK and Montserrat Government to start a more rational plan for responding to the volcano, and in particular it assisted the early stages of planning longer term facilities in the North of the island to enable those who did not wish to evacuate to remain on island" [a] . These decisions can be attributed directly to Bristol researchers and continues to have a "profound impact on the safety of the island's inhabitants" [d] . Indeed, the Head of Disaster Management for the UK Overseas Territories has stated; "I have no doubt that the hazard maps, educational programmes, daily scientific reports in language that the community understood and close co-operation with the Government of the day, resulted in scores or more of lives being saved" [a] .

There are multiple lines of evidence of how Bristol's research is linked to policy and decisions on Montserrat. One current example is sand mining [d,e] . In the last few years, sand mining has become an important source of income for Montserrat. However, these activities have caused some environmental concerns, including destruction of the main roads from truck movements, road safety, and noise and dust nuisance to residents. One solution is to develop the port at Plymouth for export, however this brings workers into a potentially hazardous region, despite volcanic activity being classified as `low' for the last 2 years. Consequently, the SAC and MVO were commissioned by the Government of Montserrat National Disaster Preparedness and Advisory Committee to assess risks in relation to airport operations and commercial mining in order to establish whether or not various options were feasible. The SAC used knowledge of empirical pyroclastic flow models [6] , and statistical frequency-magnitude relationships of dome collapses to assess the risk and quantify attendant uncertainties [5] , using the formal expert elicitation methods developed by Aspinall [8] . Key research involving both current and former Bristol PhD students supervised by Sparks has also directly informed the estimates. From this work, occupational risk levels to workers were assessed and found to be 8-20 times higher than UK workers in the extractive industries, thus requiring additional efforts in monitoring and worker safety [b,e] . "As a result, controlled export of volcanic sand now takes place from the jetty in Plymouth" [d] .

The advice of Sparks and Aspinall through the RAP and SAC led to the permanent establishment of MVO with a dedicated building, employment of fifteen technical and scientific staff and also supports eight off-island administrative positions [a] . " In a population of only a few thousand, MVO is a significant employer and a critical resource for the island and its long-term sustainability " [a]. Furthermore, the on-going monitoring and publicity around the Soufrière Hills eruption has led to this eruption being incorporated into the UK National Curriculum as a G.C.S.E Geography case study. The eruption and its mitigation policies have been studied by up to 962,238 school children between 2008 and present [f] .

The combination of volcanic process fundamentals (under Sparks), and modelling of risk (under Aspinall), provides the foundation of the risk assessment methodology that has been applied successfully on Montserrat since 1995. The MVO has established a testbed for new monitoring tools, including those that measure volcanic gases, deformation, seismology and strain. More than that, its management and decision making processes (designed and implemented by Aspinall), are still being used today, and tested and trialled worldwide in volcanic settings as diverse as Guatemala and Tristan de Cunha. This underscores the importance (and ethos) of knowledge sharing and risk reduction worldwide that is a leitmotif throughout the work of Sparks and Aspinall; " the University of Bristol volcanology group have led some of the major research themes globally that feed into the day-to-day operations of volcano observatories. For example, the work of Professor Steve Sparks... has led to improved knowledge transfer on volcanic hazards and risk assessment tools" [g] , and "the research performed by the group has led to improved decision support and information transfer for the world's volcano community" [g] .

To that end, as well as setting up MVO and facilitating its growth into a world-leading observatory, Aspinall and Sparks have co-authored a substantial report (2011) describing where this very knowledge is most needed, as part of the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) [h] . The GFDRR was launched in 2006 by the World Bank as a partnership between the UN, donors and developing countries. It was established to help developing countries, particularly those identified as the most vulnerable natural disaster `hotspots', to build their capacity for disaster prevention, emergency preparedness, response, and recovery. The report [h] presents the results of a pilot study on the risk posed by volcanoes in the priority countries of the GFDRR and the World Bank and helps unveil how volcanic risk can impact the social and economic profiles of vulnerable countries; "The aim of the study was to establish science-based evidence for better integration of volcanic risks in national Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) programmes in priority countries, as well as regional cooperation in DRR programmes for all countries supported under GFDRR" [i] . Since its launch, GFDRR has responded to the growing needs and demands of countries, currently funding more than 120 disaster risk reduction (DRR) and inter-related climate risk management programs in many disaster-prone low and middle income countries. GFDRR has, according to their website, spent over $197M in overseas programmes since its inception and this aid has been guided, in part, by the report [j] . The World Bank states, " the findings of this study have been important in informing the continued development of the GFRDD country programs, which guide our interventions in 31 priority countries around the world. Through this study we have been able to more accurately reflect volcanic risk in our programmatic approach" [j]. The GFDRR report, specifically the methodology highlighted within it, has also shaped the thinking, and actions, of the United Nations itself; "This evidence, and the method developed is study, has been critical for the development of the next Global Assessment Report (GAR15)...This, in turn, will have a direct impact to national governments, decision makers and practitioners, as well as implementation pathways for mainstreaming volcanic risk reduction into policies and practice" [i] .

The work of Aspinall and Sparks in volcanic risk reduction has had impact worldwide. Through the MVO, they have developed an exemplar of both monitoring capability and, critically, effective decision making [a,d,g] . Through their work with the World Bank and the United Nations they have delimited the countries most at risk and, therefore, most in need of an understanding of the best-practices of an exemplary volcano observatory such as MVO [i,j] . The report [h] " has been a timely contribution to our continuous efforts to reflect the latest scientific understanding of disaster risk n the programming of our funding to vulnerable countries. This supports our efforts to build increased capacity and expertise in understanding risks from natural hazards in countries around the world" [j] . Through a better understanding of both risk and decision making, hazard managers are better armed to make good, effective choices that reduce exposure to volcanic hazards even during crises and in periods of great uncertainty.

Sources to corroborate the impact

[a] Foreign and Commonwealth Office Overseas Territories Directorate. Factual Statement.

[b] SAC scientific reports (2002-present). Available from: http://www.mvo.ms

[c] IAEA (2012) Volcanic Hazards in Site Evaluation for Nuclear Installations . IAEA Safety Standards Series SSG-21. Available from: http://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/publications/PDF/Pub1552_web.pdf

[d] Montserrat Volcano Observatory (MVO). Factual Statement.

[e] Montserrat Mining and Quarrying Industry Report. Available from: http://www.protectmontserrat.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Montserrat-Mining-and-Quarrying-Report-FINAL.pdf

[f] Joint Council of Qualifications. Number G.C.S.E Geography candidates. Available from: http://www.jcq.org.uk/examination-results/gcses

[g] World Organization of Volcano Observatories (WOVO) Factual Statement.

[h] GFDRR Volcanic Risk Study: Volcano Hazard and Exposure in GFDRR Priority Countries and Risk Mitigation Measures (2011). NGI report 20100806. Available from: http://www.globalvolcanomodel.org/documents/Aspinall_et_al_GFDRR_Volcano_Risk_Final.pdf

[i] United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR). Factual Statement.

[j] World Bank. Factual Statement.

The University of The West Indies

Oriens ex occidente lux.

Montserrat is one of the Leeward Islands in the eastern Caribbean, 40 km southwest of Antigua. Sixteen km long, with an area of 102 square km, the island compromises three mountain ranges. Soufrière rises to 901 m The eruption began on 18 July 1995 within English's Crater, which is a structure about 1 km in diameter with walls 100 to 150 m high, open to the east. The first four months of the eruption involved intense earthquake swarms and vigorous steam explosions, caused by rapid heating of the groundwater by rising magma. The magma reached the surface by mid-November 1995 and a new lava dome began to form. The lava is typical of many Caribbean volcanoes and is known as andesite. Such lava is so viscous that it piles up around the vent to form a dome; a steep-sided rubbly mound hundreds of metres high. The Soufriere Hills dome has been growing ever since. As a lava dome grows it becomes unstable and parts of the dome can suddenly avalanche away and simultaneously disintegrate to form a flow of fragments and volcanic ash known as a pyroclastic flow. The flows vary from small avalanches down the sides of the dome to major failures of the dome in which millions of tonnes of fragmented lava move at devastating speeds of over 100 kph and temperatures up to 800°C. In April 1996 the first major pyroclastic flows moved down the Tar River valley to the east of the volcano. By May 1996 pyroclastic flows entered the sea on the east coast and there were further large flows in July, August and early September. A major shift in the volcano's behaviour occurred around 20 July 1996 which heralded an escalation of activity in the following months. The first explosive eruption of the volcano occurred on 17 September 1996, generating an eruption column about 14 km high and ejecting 1 metre diameter rocks to about 2 km from the volcano. The escalation of activity and new explosive behaviour indicated more rapid flow of gas-rich magma to the surface. The explosive eruption was triggered by about 30% of the dome avalanching away in the previous 12 hours which decompressed gas-rich magma deeper in the volcano. This explosion is used as a reference event later in this assessment. Dome growth recommenced two weeks after the explosive eruption on 17 September 1996. Both the rate of growth and size of the dome increased over the next several months, interrupted repeatedly by many episodes of pyroclastic flow generation. Eventually the dome became so large that it filled up English's Crater. The walls of the crater had protected the southwestern, western and northern flanks of the volcano from pyroclastic flows, but by March 1997 the southwestern wall was overwhelmed and from June 1997 onwards the northern wall was overtopped. The major pyroclastic flow eruption of 25 June 1997 killed at least 19 people and nearly reached the airport 5.5 km northeast of the volcano. About 8 million cubic metres of the dome avalanched in less than 20 minutes. In late July 1997 large pyroclastic flows went down valleys on the west, resulting in the partial destruction of Plymouth. Following major dome collapses in early August 1997 explosive eruptions occurred at fairly regular (12 hourly) intervals over an 8 day period. These eruptions introduced an additional kind of hazard: pyroclastic flows formed by explosions rather than by avalanching of the unstable dome. Although these pyroclastic flows are similar in behaviour and consequent hazard to the dome collapse type, they are less constrained by topography, as the explosion can eject the materials in all directions around the volcano. By this time the scientists at MVO had recognized regular patterns of pressure build-up which allowed quite accurate prediction of when explosive events or pyroclastic flows would occur. This enabled emergency operations to take place in potentially dangerous areas in the periods when the internal pressure of the volcano was estimated to be low. The largest pyroclastic flow so far occurred on 21 September 1997 and destroyed the airport terminal. A prolonged period of quite regularly spaced explosive eruptions followed. Between 22 September and 21 October 1997 there were 75 explosions spaced at a mean interval of 9.5 hours. The explosions produced eruption columns of 5 to 12 km height and the largest events were only slightly less energetic than the 17 September 1996 explosion. Since then dome growth has continued and further dome collapses have generated more pyroclastic flows. The general trend of the eruption so far has been slow escalation (Figure 2). The mean flux of magma in the first 6 months was less than 1 m3/s; it rose to 2.3 m3/s in 1996 and 5 to 8 m3/s in the past 6 months. Superimposed on this trend are many pulsations. The dome growth rate and activity can be well below average for days to many weeks and then increase quite rapidly to well above average. The activity is punctuated by episodes of major dome collapse and pyroclastic flow generation. Each of the three major periods of explosive activity have occurred after one of the major dome collapses. Measurements of the flux of Sulphur dioxide gases from the volcano also show a slow baseline increase with time. The crisis prompted more than half of the island's population to leave; those who stayed were evacuated to the north. The restless volcano has prevented their return. Britain offered temporary, and later permanent, residence to all Montserratians. Others left for New York, or for other Caribbean islands including Antigua. Montserratians living in the US have had their "temporary protected status" revoked; many may have to leave. With volcanic activity in their homeland unlikely to cease, the US Department of Homeland Security no longer considered their situation to be temporary. Tourism was once the lifeblood of the economy. However, the destruction of the capital and the closure of the island's airport halted much economic activity. Montserrat has relied heavily upon British and EU aid to rebuild; a new airport was inaugurated in 2005

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Montserrat Volcano 1995-1997 Case Study

Subject: Geography

Age range: 14-16

Resource type: Lesson (complete)

Last updated

26 November 2018

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6 resources that could all be used as case studies for various GCSE geography courses. Includes lessons on: \- Australia's 'Big Dry' Drought \- The 2009 Cockermouth Floods \- Kenya's 2009 Drought \- Montserrat 1995-97 Volcanic Eruption \- Pakistan Earthquake 2005 \- The potential threat of an Atlantic mega-tsunami

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