climate change research paper 2023

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2023 REPORTS AND PAPERS

Reports and papers, 2023 reports & papers, the oil and gas industry in net zero transitions.

Whose ‘moment of truth’?

Oil producers face ‘moment of truth’ over green investment, iea warns, cop28 ‘moment of truth’ for oil industry, says energy boss, carbon capture and storage hopes are pipe dreams, for now, oil and gas industry needs to let go of carbon capture as solution to climate change, iea says, the lancet countdown on health and climate change.

Two grim reports on global climate efforts highlight increased fossil fuel subsidies, ill health

Global heat deaths could quadruple if action is not taken on climate change, study finds, health risks linked to climate change are getting worse, experts warn, climate change is putting the health of billions at risk, health experts say world needs to end fossil fuel use as new report finds a rise in climate-related mortality, climate change, fossil fuels hurting people’s health, says new global report, the fifth national climate assessment.

Fifth National Climate Assessment

Climate change is threatening american lives, white house report says, every region of the country is taking climate action. here’s how., how does climate change threaten where you live a region-by-region guide., climate impacts in the u.s. are ‘far-reaching and worsening,’ federal report finds, five takeaways from a sweeping report on climate change in the us, no place in the us is safe from the climate crisis, but a new report shows where it’s most severe, ‘every bit matters’: six key takeaways from the latest u.s. climate report, the toll of climate disasters is rising. but a u.s. report has good news, too., climate changes threatens every facet of u.s. society, federal report warns, national climate assessment: flooding and sea level rise, the 5th national climate assessment in 15 maps, the production gap report 2023.

Nations That Vowed to Halt Warming Are Expanding Fossil Fuels, Report Finds

Planned fossil fuel production vastly exceeds the world’s climate goals, ‘throwing humanity’s future into question’, unavoidable future increase in west antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century, antarctica is melting and we all need to adapt, a trio of climate analyses show, rapid melting in west antarctica is ‘unavoidable,’ with potentially disastrous consequences for sea level rise, study finds, rapid ice melt in west antarctica now inevitable, research shows, sea-level rise: west antarctic ice shelf melt ‘unavoidable’, antarctica ice crunch time: scientists sound alarm on sheet melting, rapid antarctic melting looks certain, even if emissions goals are met, west antarctic ice sheet faces ‘unavoidable’ melting, a warning for sea level rise, assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets, why many scientists are now saying climate change is an all-out ‘emergency’, the 2023 state of the climate report: entering uncharted territory, world energy outlook 2023.

Analysis: Global CO2 emissions could peak as soon as 2023, IEA data reveals

World shift to clean energy is unstoppable, iea report says, observed increases in north atlantic tropical cyclone peak intensification rates, atlantic hurricanes are getting more dangerous, more quickly, atlantic hurricanes intensifying faster, more frequently, research finds, atlantic hurricanes are getting stronger, faster, study finds, electricity grids and secure energy transitions.

Electric Grids Are a Hidden Weak Spot in World’s Climate Plans, Report Warns

The world’s power grids, 50 million miles’ worth, need a major overhaul, global electricity grid must be upgraded urgently to hit climate goals, says iea, stalled spending on electrical grids slows rollout of renewable energy, endangering climate goals, accelerating decarbonization in the united states.

One key step in the energy transition? No new gas lines.

Scientists lay out a sweeping roadmap for transitioning the us off fossil fuels, new report provides comprehensive plan to meet u.s. net-zero goals and ensure fair and equitable energy transition, urgent action to cut methane emissions from fossil fuel operations essential to achieve global climate targets.

‘Immediate’ cuts to methane from fossil fuel needed: IEA

Immediate methane cuts can prevent nearly a million premature deaths, iea says, strong el niño event will contribute to high food assistance needs through 2024, rising el niño intensity sparks global food security concerns, children displaced in a changing climate.

Extreme weather displaced 43m children in past six years, Unicef reports

Millions of children are displaced due to extreme weather events. climate change will make it worse, net zero roadmap: a global pathway to keep the 1.5 °c goal in reach.

New report has terrific news for the climate

Iea says ‘unprecedented’ clean energy surge has kept key warming target alive, the iea’s latest report may have just saved the world, in praise of the iea, 7 charts on the good, the bad, and the ugly of the energy transition, prevalence and predictors of wind energy opposition in north america, it’s too easy to block a wind farm in america, the 9th national risk assessment: the insurance issue.

How climate change is impacting home insurance premiums

Us home insurance ‘bubble’ closer to popping as climate risks mount, new study warns of ‘climate insurance bubble.’ is that driving costs up in florida, homeowners face rising insurance rates as climate change makes wildfires, storms more common, homes in parts of the u.s. are “essentially uninsurable” due to rising climate change risks, 39 million properties are significantly overvalued due to artificially suppressed home insurance costs, the sustainability trends report 2023, 1 big thing: china says no fossil fuel “phaseout” at cop28, assessing the u.s. climate in august 2023.

U.S. has seen a record number of weather disasters this year. It’s only September.

Noaa: 2023 worst year on record for billion-dollar disasters, u.s. sets record for billion-dollar weather disasters in a year — with 4 months still to go, 2023 worst year on record for billion-dollar climate disasters, noaa says, summer 2023 broke dozens of all-time monthly heat records, us sets new record for billion-dollar climate disasters in single year, 15 billion-dollar weather disasters hit the us this year, a record pace, noaa says, technical dialogue of the first global stocktake. synthesis report by the co-facilitators on the technical dialogue, climate report card says countries are trying, but urgently need improvement, unlock the endangered species act to address ghg emissions, scientists were sure climate change was bad for polar bears. now they know how bad., the global drivers of chronic coastal flood hazards under sea-level rise.

Rapid increase in the risk of heat-related mortality

Risk of heat-related deaths has ‘increased rapidly’ over past 20 years, short-term excess mortality following tropical cyclones in the united states.

U.S. hurricane deaths concentrated in vulnerable counties, research finds

New study finds far more hurricane-related deaths in us, especially among poor and vulnerable, hurricanes have become deadlier in recent decades, study shows, investing in american energy.

Biden touts Inflation Reduction Act on first anniversary

Celebrating the investment reverberation act, why john podesta thinks the inflation reduction act is the next obamacare, first on cnn: some of america’s poorest communities are landing clean energy projects worth billions, the ira turned one. what’s happened since and what’s next, guest post: how the inflation reduction act narrows the gap to us climate goals, the ira turns 1. many democrats are already talking about the next climate law., biden’s inflation reduction act spurs historic climate action, how to decarbonize your home with the inflation reduction act, a prosperous year for the inflation reduction act, investing in america, the new climate law is upending the solar landscape, i turned my house into a zero-carbon utopia, clean economy works | ira one-year review, biden, yellen lead blitz to celebrate inflation reduction act, remarks by secretary of the treasury janet l. yellen on the economy ahead of inflation reduction act anniversary in las vegas, nevada, how the inflation reduction act has reshaped the u.s.—and the world, green investment boom and electric car sales: six key things about biden’s climate bill, one year of our clean energy boom, emissions and energy impacts of the inflation reduction act, extreme heat in north america, europe and china in july 2023 made much more likely by climate change, heat waves in u.s., europe ‘virtually impossible’ without climate change, study finds, some july heat: ‘virtually impossible’ without climate change, analysis finds, report: record heat “virtually impossible” without climate change, taking stock 2023: us emissions projections after the inflation reduction act.

How Biden’s climate law will — and won’t — transform America

Deglaciation of northwestern greenland during marine isotope stage 11, ancient soil shows part of greenland was ice-free — and could soon melt again, scientists say, a multimillion-year-old record of greenland vegetation and glacial history preserved in sediment beneath 1.4 km of ice at camp century, turning climate commitments into results.

Chart: The US can’t meet its climate goals unless states step up

The 8th national risk assessment: the precipitation problem, the places in the u.s. most at risk for extreme rainfall, drift of earth’s pole confirms groundwater depletion as a significant contributor to global sea level rise 1993–2010, something was messing with earth’s axis. the answer has to do with us., humans pump so much groundwater that earth’s axis has shifted, study finds, we’ve changed earth’s spin by pumping groundwater, humanity’s groundwater pumping has altered earth’s tilt, pace of progress – electrifying everything at the rate required to meet our climate goals.

Wildfire Weather: Analyzing the 50-year shift across America

Air quality hits hazardous levels Wednesday from Canadian wildfire smoke

As smoke darkens the sky, the future becomes clear, we can see clearly now, safe and just earth system boundaries, earth is ‘really quite sick now’ and in danger zone in nearly all ecological ways, study says, if climate goals are meant to protect us from ‘significant harm,’ then they aren’t good enough, scientists say, ‘safe and just’ climate boundary has already been breached, says contested study, earth’s health failing in seven out of eight key measures, say scientists, humans have blown past key limits for earth’s stability, scientists say, climate and readiness: understanding climate vulnerability of u.s. joint force readiness.

Military must focus on short- and long-term challenges of climate change, report finds

U.s. military sees growing threat in thawing permafrost, time to pay the piper: fossil fuel companies’ reparations for climate damages, fossil fuel firms owe climate reparations of $209bn a year, says study, persistent effect of el niño on global economic growth, el niño is getting stronger. that could cost the global economy trillions., el ninos are far costlier than once thought, in the trillions, study says — and one’s brewing now, el niño could cost the global economy $3 trillion, the weight of new york city: possible contributions to subsidence from anthropogenic sources, sea level rise in new york city, new york’s skyscrapers are causing it to sink – what can be done about it, new york city is sinking due to its million-plus buildings, study says, new york city is sinking. it’s far from alone, emissions from oil and gas operations in net zero transitions, the (relatively) cheap opportunity to cut oil and gas emissions, abyssal ocean overturning slowdown and warming driven by antarctic meltwater, truly ‘uncharted territory.’, melting antarctic ice predicted to cause rapid slowdown of deep ocean current by 2050, global economy’s “speed limit” set to fall to three-decade low, economists would like a word, world bank warns of ‘lost decade’ for global economic potential, the minderoo-monaco commission on plastics and human health, every stage of plastic production and use is harming human health: report, ar6 synthesis report climate change 2023.

Corporate interests ‘watered down’ the latest IPCC climate report, investigations find

Carbon brief’s definitive guide to the entire ipcc sixth assessment cycle, why optimism can’t fix our climate politics, q&a: ipcc wraps up its most in-depth assessment of climate change, climate change is speeding toward catastrophe. the next decade is crucial, u.n. panel says, a clear message from science, scientists deliver ‘final warning’ on climate crisis: act now or it’s too late, ‘it can be done. it must be done’: ipcc delivers definitive report on climate change, and where to now, ipcc report: climate solutions exist, but humanity has to break from the status quo and embrace innovation, world is on brink of catastrophic warming, u.n. climate change report says, summary report, 13–19 march 2023, climate change will impact everything everywhere all at once, latest ipcc report demonstrates urgency & opportunity of reaching net zero, the latest ipcc report: what is it and why does it matter, world energy transitions outlook 2023: 1.5°c pathway, energy agency chief warns transition to renewables is way off track, issues warning on stranded assets, report: renewable energy growth falls short of climate goal, global energy transition investments must quadruple to $5t to reach climate targets: irena, investments in renewable energies must quadruple to meet climate target -irena, economic report of the president.

Climate change could spur severe economic losses, Biden administration says

The impact of climate change on u.s. subnational economies, long island fourth nationally in potential risks due to climate change, moody’s report says, need to rethink retirement these areas face the biggest climate-change risk., here are the u.s. cities most vulnerable to climate change, according to moody’s, nyc, li among metropolitan areas most likely to feel negative impacts of climate change, study says, which u.s. cities will fare best in a warming world — and which will be hit hardest, preliminary us greenhouse gas emissions estimates for 2022, u.s. emissions rose slightly in 2022. they need to be falling rapidly., global glacier change in the 21st century: every increase in temperature matters, half of earth’s glaciers could melt even if key warming goal is met, study says, the breakthrough effect: how to trigger a cascade of tipping points to accelerate the net zero transition, the good news about climate tipping points, population attributable fraction of gas stoves and childhood asthma in the united states, why gas stoves actually matter, gas stove talk gets weird, are gas stoves really dangerous what we know about the science, may the best stove win, chef alison roman loves her induction stove. twitter has so many questions, what the right’s gas stove freakout was really about, push to phase out gas stoves over health concerns met with online anger, about that gas stove, u.s. regulators hinted at a possible ban on gas stoves. the debate boiled over, induction cooktops and ranges are so good you may not miss your gas appliance, the gas stove regulation uproar, explained, are gas stoves unsafe here’s what to know about the gas vs. induction debate, u.s. agency examines secret pollution from gas stoves, us safety agency to consider ban on gas stoves amid health fears, how michelin 3-star chef eric ripert designed his own home kitchen.

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Accelerated climate action needed to sharply reduce current risks to life and life-support systems

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Hottest day on record. Hottest month on record. Extreme marine heatwaves. Record-low Antarctic sea-ice.

While El Niño is a short-term factor in this year’s record-breaking heat, human-caused climate change is the long-term driver. And as global warming edges closer to 1.5 degrees Celsius — the aspirational upper limit set in the Paris Agreement in 2015 — ushering in more intense and frequent heatwaves, floods, wildfires, and other climate extremes much sooner than many expected, current greenhouse gas emissions-reduction policies are far too weak to keep the planet from exceeding that threshold. In fact, on roughly one-third of days in 2023 , the average global temperature was at least 1.5 C higher than pre-industrial levels. Faster and bolder action will be needed — from the in-progress United Nations Climate Change Conference ( COP28 ) and beyond — to stabilize the climate and minimize risks to human (and nonhuman) lives and the life-support systems (e.g., food, water, shelter, and more) upon which they depend.

Quantifying the risks posed by simply maintaining existing climate policies — and the benefits (i.e., avoided damages and costs) of accelerated climate action aligned with the 1.5 C goal — is the central task of the 2023 Global Change Outlook , recently released by the  MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change .

Based on a rigorous, integrated analysis of population and economic growth, technological change, Paris Agreement emissions-reduction pledges (Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs), geopolitical tensions, and other factors, the report presents the MIT Joint Program’s latest projections for the future of the earth’s energy, food, water, and climate systems, as well as prospects for achieving the Paris Agreement’s short- and long-term climate goals.

The 2023 Global Change Outlook performs its risk-benefit analysis by focusing on two scenarios. The first, Current Trends , assumes that Paris Agreement NDCs are implemented through the year 2030, and maintained thereafter. While this scenario represents an unprecedented global commitment to limit greenhouse gas emissions, it neither stabilizes climate nor limits climate change. The second scenario, Accelerated Actions , extends from the Paris Agreement’s initial NDCs and aligns with its long-term goals. This scenario aims to limit and stabilize human-induced global climate warming to 1.5 C by the end of this century with at least a 50 percent probability. Uncertainty is quantified using 400-member ensembles of projections for each scenario.

This year’s report also includes a visualization tool that enables a higher-resolution exploration of both scenarios .

Between 2020 and 2050, population and economic growth are projected to drive continued increases in energy needs and electrification. Successful achievement of current Paris Agreement pledges will reinforce a shift away from fossil fuels, but additional actions will be required to accelerate the energy transition needed to cap global warming at 1.5 C by 2100.

During this 30-year period under the Current Trends scenario, the share of fossil fuels in the global energy mix drops from 80 percent to 70 percent. Variable renewable energy (wind and solar) is the fastest growing energy source with more than an 8.6-fold increase. In the Accelerated Actions scenario, the share of low-carbon energy sources grows from 20 percent to slightly more than 60 percent, a much faster growth rate than in the Current Trends scenario; wind and solar energy undergo more than a 13.3-fold increase.

While the electric power sector is expected to successfully scale up (with electricity production increasing by 73 percent under Current Trends, and 87 percent under Accelerated Actions) to accommodate increased demand (particularly for variable renewables), other sectors face stiffer challenges in their efforts to decarbonize.

“Due to a sizeable need for hydrocarbons in the form of liquid and gaseous fuels for sectors such as heavy-duty long-distance transport, high-temperature industrial heat, agriculture, and chemical production, hydrogen-based fuels and renewable natural gas remain attractive options, but the challenges related to their scaling opportunities and costs must be resolved,” says MIT Joint Program Deputy Director Sergey Paltsev , a lead author of the 2023 Global Change Outlook.

Water, food, and land

With a global population projected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050, the Current Trends scenario indicates that more than half of the world’s population will experience pressures to its water supply, and that three of every 10 people will live in water basins where compounding societal and environmental pressures on water resources will be experienced. Population projections under combined water stress in all scenarios reveal that the Accelerated Actions scenario can reduce approximately 40 million of the additional 570 million people living in water-stressed basins at mid-century.

Under the Current Trends scenario, agriculture and food production will keep growing. This will increase pressure for land-use change, water use, and use of energy-intensive inputs, which will also lead to higher greenhouse gas emissions. Under the Accelerated Actions scenario, less agricultural and food output is observed by 2050 compared to the Current Trends scenario, since this scenario affects economic growth and increases production costs. Livestock production is more greenhouse gas emissions-intensive than crop and food production, which, under carbon-pricing policies, drives demand downward and increases costs and prices. Such impacts are transmitted to the food sector and imply lower consumption of livestock-based products.

Land-use changes in the Accelerated Actions scenario are similar to those in the Current Trends scenario by 2050, except for land dedicated to bioenergy production. At the world level, the Accelerated Actions scenario requires cropland area to increase by 1 percent and pastureland to decrease by 4.2 percent, but land use for bioenergy must increase by 44 percent.

Climate trends

Under the Current Trends scenario, the world is likely (more than 50 percent probability) to exceed 2 C global climate warming by 2060, 2.8 C by 2100, and 3.8 C by 2150. Our latest climate-model information indicates that maximum temperatures will likely outpace mean temperature trends over much of North and South America, Europe, northern and southeast Asia, and southern parts of Africa and Australasia. So as human-forced climate warming intensifies, these regions are expected to experience more pronounced record-breaking extreme heat events.

Under the Accelerated Actions scenario, global temperature will continue to rise through the next two decades. But by 2050, global temperature will stabilize, and then slightly decline through the latter half of the century.

“By 2100, the Accelerated Actions scenario indicates that the world can be virtually assured of remaining below 2 C of global warming,” says MIT Joint Program Deputy Director C. Adam Schlosser , a lead author of the report. “Nevertheless, additional policy mechanisms must be designed with more comprehensive targets that also support a cleaner environment, sustainable resources, as well as improved and equitable human health.”

The Accelerated Actions scenario not only stabilizes global precipitation increase (by 2060), but substantially reduces the magnitude and potential range of increases to almost one-third of Current Trends global precipitation changes. Any global increase in precipitation heightens flood risk worldwide, so policies aligned with the Accelerated Actions scenario would considerably reduce that risk.

Prospects for meeting Paris Agreement climate goals

Numerous countries and regions are progressing in fulfilling their Paris Agreement pledges. Many have declared more ambitious greenhouse gas emissions-mitigation goals, while financing to assist the least-developed countries in sustainable development is not forthcoming at the levels needed. In this year’s Global Stocktake Synthesis Report , the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change evaluated emissions reductions communicated by the parties of the Paris Agreement and concluded that global emissions are not on track to fulfill the most ambitious long-term global temperature goals of the Paris Agreement (to keep warming well below 2 C — and, ideally, 1.5 C — above pre-industrial levels), and there is a rapidly narrowing window to raise ambition and implement existing commitments in order to achieve those targets. The Current Trends scenario arrives at the same conclusion.

The 2023 Global Change Outlook finds that both global temperature targets remain achievable, but require much deeper near-term emissions reductions than those embodied in current NDCs.

Reducing climate risk

This report explores two well-known sets of risks posed by climate change. Research highlighted indicates that elevated climate-related physical risks will continue to evolve by mid-century, along with heightened transition risks that arise from shifts in the political, technological, social, and economic landscapes that are likely to occur during the transition to a low-carbon economy.

“Our Outlook shows that without aggressive actions the world will surpass critical greenhouse gas concentration thresholds and climate targets in the coming decades,” says MIT Joint Program Director Ronald Prinn . “While the costs of inaction are getting higher, the costs of action are more manageable.”

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Climate Program Office Featured in 2023 NOAA Science Report

• April 8, 2024

NOAA recently released the 2023 NOAA Science Report . The report describes NOAA’s progress and accomplishments in research and development. While CPO was not cited in the report, elements of NOAA’s scientific advancements were made possible through CPO investments. 

Read below to see where CPO was featured in the report.

Page 9: In November 2023, NIHHIS Community Heat and Health Information Coordinator, Morgan Zabow, the Chief Scientist, Sarah Kapnick, Ph.D., Lead of the Environmental Visualization Laboratory, Rafael DeAmeller and Visualization Lead for Science on a Sphere, Juan Pablo Hurtado, attended American Possibilities: A White House Demo Day to showcase the virtual reality experience of the Urban Heat Island of Washington, D.C. 

Page 34: This science and knowledge is openly shared through the Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5), unveiled at the White House. The NCA5, a congressionally-mandated report, provides a roadmap to a better future through science-based information, data, and real-world examples of ways to reduce greenhouse gas pollution and develop resilience. NOAA made significant contributions to the NCA5, including 35 authors and 13 chapter leaders, reflecting the agency’s critical role in observing, predicting, and working with communities to build resilience to the effects of climate change.

Five CPO staff were heavily involved in the creation of the NCA5. CPO’s Caitlin Simpson was the Adaptation chapter Federal coordinating lead author and Ariela Zycherman was the Social Systems and Justice chapter Federal coordinating lead author. Chelsea Combest-Friedman was reviewer of the Social Systems and Justice chapter. Molly Woloszyn was a reviewer of the Midwest chapter. Dan Barrie was the NOAA representative on the Federal Steering Committee.

Page 37: NOAA has developed a new experimental forecast to predict marine heatwaves globally. In recent decades the ocean has absorbed an estimated 90% of excess heat associated with global warming. Funding from the Climate Program Office’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program contributed to the new Physical Sciences Laboratory experimental forecasting model.

Pages 38-40: Section 3.4 “The Heat Is On!…Land and in the Air” features CPO’s interagency NIHHIS program’s Urban Heat Island (UHI) campaigns. To learn more about the UHI mapping campaigns, click here . 

Page 43:  NOAA and partners lead largest air quality research campaign yet. AGES+ focused on field measurements of urban and marine atmospheric composition that took place during summer 2023. The Climate Program Office’s Atmospheric Chemistry, Carbon Cycle and Climate (AC4) and Earth’s Radiation Budget (ERB) programs supported projects for components of the AGES+ campaign. 

To read the full 2023 NOAA Science Report, click here .

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Climate Change Is Speeding Toward Catastrophe. The Next Decade Is Crucial, U.N. Panel Says.

A new report says it is still possible to hold global warming to relatively safe levels, but doing so will require global cooperation, billions of dollars and big changes.

By Brad Plumer

Earth is likely to cross a critical threshold for global warming within the next decade, and nations will need to make an immediate and drastic shift away from fossil fuels to prevent the planet from overheating dangerously beyond that level, according to a major new report released on Monday .

The report, by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a body of experts convened by the United Nations, offers the most comprehensive understanding to date of ways in which the planet is changing. It says that global average temperatures are estimated to rise 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels sometime around “the first half of the 2030s,” as humans continue to burn coal, oil and natural gas.

That number holds a special significance in global climate politics : Under the 2015 Paris climate agreement, virtually every nation agreed to “pursue efforts” to hold global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Beyond that point, scientists say, the impacts of catastrophic heat waves, flooding, drought, crop failures and species extinction become significantly harder for humanity to handle.

But Earth has already warmed an average of 1.1 degrees Celsius since the industrial age, and, with global fossil-fuel emissions setting records last year , that goal is quickly slipping out of reach.

There is still one last chance to shift course, the new report says. But it would require industrialized nations to join together immediately to slash greenhouse gases roughly in half by 2030 and then stop adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere altogether by the early 2050s. If those two steps were taken, the world would have about a 50 percent chance of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Delays of even a few years would most likely make that goal unattainable, guaranteeing a hotter, more perilous future.

“The pace and scale of what has been done so far and current plans are insufficient to tackle climate change,” said Hoesung Lee, the chair of the climate panel. “We are walking when we should be sprinting.”

The report comes as the world’s two biggest polluters, China and the United States, continue to approve new fossil fuel projects. Last year, China issued permits for 168 coal-fired power plants of various sizes , according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air in Finland. Last week, the Biden administration approved an enormous oil drilling project known as Willow that will take place on pristine federal land in Alaska .

The report, which was approved by 195 governments, says that existing and currently planned fossil fuel infrastructure — coal-fired power plants, oil wells, factories, cars and trucks across the globe — will already produce enough carbon dioxide to warm the planet roughly 2 degrees Celsius this century. To keep warming below that level, many of those projects would need to be canceled, retired early or otherwise cleaned up.

“The 1.5 degree limit is achievable, but it will take a quantum leap in climate action,” António Guterres, the United Nations secretary general, said. In response to the report, Mr. Guterres called on countries to stop building new coal plants and to stop approving new oil and gas projects.  

Many scientists have pointed out that surpassing the 1.5 degree threshold will not mean humanity is doomed. But every fraction of a degree of additional warming is expected to increase the severity of dangers that people around the world face, such as water scarcity, malnutrition and deadly heat waves.

The difference between 1.5 degrees of warming and 2 degrees might mean that tens of millions more people worldwide experience life-threatening heat waves, water shortages and coastal flooding. A 1.5-degree world might still have coral reefs and summer Arctic sea ice, while a 2-degree world most likely would not.

“It’s not that if we go past 1.5 degrees everything is lost,” said Joeri Rogelj, director of research at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment at Imperial College London. “But there’s clear evidence that 1.5 is better than 1.6, which is better than 1.7, and so on. The point is we need to do everything we can to keep warming as low as possible.”

Scientists say that warming will largely halt once humans stop adding heat-trapping gases to the atmosphere, a concept known as “net zero” emissions. How quickly nations reach net zero will determine how hot the planet ultimately becomes. Under the current policies of national governments, Earth is on pace to heat up by 2.1 to 2.9 degrees Celsius this century, analysts have estimated .

Both the United States and European Union have set goals of reaching net zero emissions by 2050, while China has set a 2060 goal and India is aiming for 2070. But in light of the report’s findings, Mr. Guterres said, all countries should move faster and wealthy countries should aim to reach net zero by 2040.

The new report is a synthesis of six previous landmark reports on climate change issued by the U.N. panel since 2018, each one compiled by hundreds of experts across the globe, approved by 195 countries and based on thousands of scientific studies. Taken together, the reports represent the most comprehensive look to date at the causes of global warming , the impacts that rising temperatures are having on people and ecosystems across the world and the strategies that countries can pursue to halt global warming .

The report makes clear that humanity’s actions today have the potential to fundamentally reshape the planet for thousands of years.

Many of the most dire climate scenarios once feared by scientists, such as those forecasting warming of 4 degrees Celsius or more, now look unlikely, as nations have invested more heavily in clean energy . At least 18 countries, including the United States, have managed to reduce their emissions for more than a decade, the report finds, while the costs of solar panels, wind turbines and lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles have plummeted.

At the same time, even relatively modest increases in global temperature are now expected to be more disruptive than previously thought, the report concludes.

At current levels of warming, for instance, food production is starting to come under strain. The world is still producing more food each year, thanks to improvements in farming and crop technology, but climate change has slowed the rate of growth, the report says. It’s an ominous trend that puts food security at risk as the world’s population soars past eight billion people.

Today, the world is seeing record-shattering storms in California and catastrophic drought in places like East Africa . But by the 2030s, as temperatures rise, climate hazards are expected to increase all over the globe as different countries face more crippling heat waves, worsening coastal flooding and crop failures, the report says. At the same time, mosquitoes carrying diseases like malaria and dengue will spread into new areas, it adds.

Nations have made some strides in preparing for the dangers of global warming, the report says, for instance by building coastal barriers against rising oceans or establishing early-warning systems for future storms. But many of those adaptation efforts are “incremental” and lack sufficient funding, particularly in poorer countries, the report finds.

And if temperatures keep rising, many parts of the world may soon face limits in how much they can adapt. Beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming, low-lying island nations and communities that depend on glaciers may face severe freshwater shortages.

To stave off a chaotic future, the report recommends that nations move away from the fossil fuels that have underpinned economies for more than 180 years.

Governments and companies would need to invest three to six times the roughly $600 billion they now spend annually on encouraging clean energy in order to hold global warming at 1.5 or 2 degrees, the report says. While there is currently enough global capital to do so, much of it is difficult for developing countries to acquire. The question of what wealthy, industrialized nations owe to poor, developing countries has been divisive at global climate negotiations.

A wide array of strategies are available for reducing fossil-fuel emissions, such as scaling up wind and solar power, shifting to electric vehicles and electric heat pumps in buildings, curbing methane emissions from oil and gas operations, and protecting forests.

But that may not be enough: Countries may also have to remove billions of tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere each year, relying on technology that barely exists today .

The report acknowledges the enormous challenges ahead. Winding down coal, oil and gas projects would mean job losses and economic dislocation. Some climate solutions come with difficult trade-offs: Protecting forests, for instance, means less land for agriculture; manufacturing electric vehicles requires mining metals for use in their batteries.

And because nations have waited so long to cut emissions, they will have to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to adapt to climate risks that are now unavoidable.

The new report is expected to inform the next round of United Nations climate talks this December in Dubai, where world leaders will gather to assess their progress in tackling global warming. At last year’s climate talks in Sharm el Sheik, language calling for an end to fossil fuels was struck from the final agreement after pressure from several oil-producing nations.

“Without a radical shift away from fossil fuels over the next few years, the world is certain to blow past the 1.5 C goal.” said Ani Dasgupta, president of the World Resources Institute, an environmental group. “The I.P.C.C. makes plain that continuing to build new unabated fossil fuel power plants would seal that fate,” he added, using the abbreviation for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry trade group, responded by saying that oil and gas companies were working on technologies to curb emissions such as carbon capture, but that policymakers “must also consider the importance of adequate, affordable and reliable energy to meet growing global needs,” said Christina Noel, a spokesperson for the institute.

While the next decade is almost certain to be hotter, scientists said the main takeaway from the report should be that nations still have enormous influence over the climate for the rest of the century.

The report “is quite clear that whatever future we end up with is within our control,” said Piers Forster, a climate scientist at the University of Leeds who helped write one of the panel’s earlier reports. “It is up to humanity,” he added, “to determine what we end up with.”

Brad Plumer is a climate reporter specializing in policy and technology efforts to cut carbon dioxide emissions. At The Times, he has also covered international climate talks and the changing energy landscape in the United States. More about Brad Plumer

Learn More About Climate Change

Have questions about climate change? Our F.A.Q. will tackle your climate questions, big and small .

“Buying Time,” a new series from The New York Times, looks at the risky ways  humans are starting to manipulate nature  to fight climate change.

Big brands like Procter & Gamble and Nestlé say a new generation of recycling plants will help them meet environmental goals, but the technology is struggling to deliver .

The Italian energy giant Eni sees future profits from collecting carbon dioxide and pumping it  into natural gas fields that have been exhausted.

New satellite-based research reveals how land along the East Coast is slumping into the ocean, compounding the danger from global sea level rise . A major culprit: the overpumping of groundwater.

Did you know the ♻ symbol doesn’t mean something is actually recyclable ? Read on about how we got here, and what can be done.

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Periodic UN System Reports on Climate Change

• High Level Champions publications At COP21 governments agreed that mobilizing stronger and more ambitious climate action was urgently required. Nations decided to appoint two High-Level Champions, leading to the Climate Champions Team, to help deliver on their mandate to enhance ambition and strengthen the engagement of non-State actors in supporting Parties, working with the Marrakech Partnership, to deliver the goals of the Paris Agreement. The Team supports global campaigns to achieve this work, including the Race to Zero (to rally non-state actors to halve global emissions by 2030 and deliver a healthier, fairer zero carbon world) and the Race to Resilience (to catalyse global ambition for climate resilience).
• Long-term low-emission development strategies. Synthesis report by the secretariat The November 2023 report (the second on this subject) looked at countries’ plans to transition to net-zero emissions by or around mid-century. The report indicated that these countries’ greenhouse gas emissions could be roughly 63% per cent lower in 2050 than in 2019, if all the long-term strategies are fully implemented on time. The report notes, however, that many net-zero targets remain uncertain and postpone into the future critical action that needs to take place now. more... less... UNFCCC 2023 press release: https://unfccc.int/news/new-analysis-of-national-climate-plans-insufficient-progress-made-cop28-must-set-stage-for-immediate UNFCCC long-term strategies portal: https://unfccc.int/process/the-paris-agreement/long-term-strategies 2022 report: https://unfccc.int/documents/619179
• Nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement: Synthesis report by the secretariat The 2023 UN Climate Change NDC synthesis report (released 14 November 2023) finds national climate action plans remain insufficient to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius and meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. The report analyzed the NDCs of 195 Parties to the Paris Agreement, including 20 new or updated NDCs submitted up until 25 September 2023. In line with the findings from last year’s analysis, it shows that while emissions are no longer increasing after 2030, compared to 2019 levels, they are still not demonstrating the rapid downward trend science says is necessary this decade. If the latest available NDCs are implemented, current commitments will increase emissions by about 8.8%, compared to 2010 levels. more... less... 2023 press release: https://unfccc.int/news/new-analysis-of-national-climate-plans-insufficient-progress-made-cop28-must-set-stage-for-immediate 2022 press release: https://unfccc.int/news/climate-plans-remain-insufficient-more-ambitious-action-needed-now 2021 report: https://unfccc.int/documents/306848 2021 press release updated report: https://unfccc.int/news/updated-ndc-synthesis-report-worrying-trends-confirmed
• Technical dialogue of the first global stocktake. Synthesis report by the co-facilitators on the technical dialogue This synthesis report (FCCC/SB/2023/9) published in September 2023 on the technical dialogue of the first global stocktake is based on inputs received throughout the process and discussions held during each of the three meetings of the technical dialogue and serves as an overarching and factual resource that provides a comprehensive overview of discussions held during the technical dialogue, identifying key areas for further action to bridge gaps and addressing challenges and barriers in the implementation of the Paris Agreement. It provides an assessment of the collective progress towards achieving the purpose and long-term goals of the Paris Agreement and informs Parties about potential areas for updating and enhancing their action and support, as well as for enhancing international cooperation for climate action. more... less... Press release: https://unfccc.int/news/implementation-must-accelerate-to-increase-ambition-across-all-fronts-taking-an-all-of-society
• United Nations Climate Change Annual Report The annual report of encompasses the key achievements under the UNFCCC intergovernmental process and the activities of the secretariat, particularly the impacts of those activities in support of the Convention, the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. The 2021 report (published in 2022) highlights: outcomes from the 2021 May-June Climate Change Sessions (the first time all Parties came together since COP25 in 2019); the positive outcomes from COP 26 in Glasgow, where Parties adopted the Glasgow Climate Pact, which aims to turn the 2020s into a decisive decade for climate action and support; and where the guidelines for the full implementation of the Paris Agreement were finalized allowing for scaled-up cooperation, the mobilization of additional finance and private sector engagement. more... less... 2021 report: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/UNFCCC_Annual_Report_2021.pdf 2020 report: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/UNFCCC_Annual_Report_2020.pdf
• Yearbook of Global Climate Action 2020 This fifth Yearbook, published in November 2021 by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Secretariat, reviews the work carried out under the Marrakech Partnership and the High-Level Champions since the last publication, by; (1) summarizing the state and scope of global climate action in 2021 and the challenges and opportunities around how to track and reflect these efforts, as well as the progress of the global action tools launched in the past year; (2) outlining the key messages around what is needed to accelerate sectoral systems transformation; and (3) presenting the Champions’ vision on the future of the climate action framework and agenda, and how the work feeds into the global stocktake. more... less... 4th Yearbook 2020: https://unfccc.int/documents/267246 UNFCCC: http://unfccc.int/ High-Level Climate Champions for Climate Action: https://unfccc.int/climate-action/marrakech-partnership/actors/meet-the-champions Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action: https://unfccc.int/climate-action/marrakech-partnership-for-global-climate-action
• The Climate Risk Landscape: Mapping Climate-related Financial Risk Assessment Methodologies This UNEP Finance Initiative report published in February 2021 and updated in April the same year provides a summary of the key developments across third party climae risk assessment providers since May 2019 and covers both physical and transition risks. In March 2022 the supplement The Climate Risk Tool Landscape was published. more... less... The Climate Risk Tool Landscape: 2022 Supplement - https://www.unepfi.org/publications/the-climate-risk-tool-landscape-2022-supplement/
• An Eye on Methane: International Methane Emissions Observatory Report The 2022 report, the International Methane Emissions Observatory's (IMEO) second annual report, seeks to provide decision makers with a framework of action to track and monitor methane emissions to plan targeted and ambitious action for their mitigation. more... less... IMEO: https://www.unep.org/explore-topics/energy/what-we-do/imeo Press release 2022 report: https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/fully-operational-un-methane-observatory-paves-way-steep-emissions
• Frontiers Report The periodic UNEP Frontiers reports draw attention to emerging issues of environmental concern. The 2022 Frontiers report: Noise, Blazes and Mismatches? has two chapters devoted to climate change - Wildfires Under Climate Change: A Burning Issue - and - Phenology: Climate Change Is Shifting the Rhythm of Nature. more... less... Frontiers 2022 report: https://www.unep.org/resources/frontiers-2022-noise-blazes-and-mismatches
• Global Climate Litigation Report The UNEP Global Climate Litigation Report: 2020 Status Review provides an overview of the current state of climate change litigation globally, as well as an assessment of global climate change litigation trends. It finds that a rapid increase in climate litigation has occurred around the world. In 2017 there were 884 cases brought in 24 countries. As of 1 July 2020, the number of cases has nearly doubled with at least 1,550 climate change cases filed in 38 countries. Summaries of significant cases appear throughout this report, and it also describes five types of climate cases that suggest where global climate change litigation may be heading in the coming years. more... less... 2017 report: https://www.unep.org/resources/publication/status-climate-change-litigation-global-review
• Global Status Report for Buildings and Construction This annual report is a reference document published by the UNEP-hosted Global Alliance for Buildings and Construction (GlobalABC). The 2022 report finds that despite a substantial increase in investment and success at a global level lowering the energy intensity of buildings, the sector’s total energy consumption and CO2 emissions increased in 2021 above pre-pandemic levels with the largest increase in the last 10 years and CO2 emissions from buildings operations reaching an all-time high of around 10 GtCO2, around a 5% increase from 2020 and 2% higher than the previous peak in 2019. The buildings and construction sector is not on track to achieve decarbonization by 2050 and the gap between the actual climate performance of the sector and the decarbonization pathway is widening. more... less... 2022 report: https://www.unep.org/resources/publication/2022-global-status-report-buildings-and-construction 2021 report: https://www.unep.org/resources/report/2021-global-status-report-buildings-and-construction
• The Production Gap Report This annual report, launched in 2019 and produced in partnership by the Stockholm Environment Institute, International Institute for Sustainable Development, Climate Analytics, E3G and the United Nations Environment Programme, tracks the discrepancy between governments' planned fossil fuel production and global production levels consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C. The 2023 reports shows that Governments, in aggregate, still plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than what would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C. more... less... 2023 report: https://productiongap.org/2023report/ 2021 report: http://www.unep.org/resources/report/production-gap-report-2021 2020 report: https://productiongap.org/2020report/ 2019 report: https://www.unep.org/resources/report/production-gap-report-2019
• UNEP Adaptation Gap Report The 2023 edition of the UNEP Adaptation Gap Report, "Underfinanced. Underprepared – Inadequate investment and planning on climate adaptation leaves world exposed" finds that progress on climate adaptation is slowing when it should be accelerating to catch up with rising climate change impacts. The report – which looks at progress in planning, financing and implementing adaptation actions – finds that the adaptation finance needs of developing countries are 10-18 times as big as international public finance flows. This is over 50 per cent higher than the previous range estimate. more... less... 2023 report: https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2023 2022 report: https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2022 2021 report: https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2021 2020 report: https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2020 2018 report: https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2018 2017 report: https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2017 2016 report: https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2016 2015 report: https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-finance-gap-update 2014 report: https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2014
• UNEP Emissions Gap Report The 2023 "Emissions Gap Report: Broken Record - Temperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions (again)" is the 14th edition of the annual UNEP report that tracks the gap between where global emissions are heading with current country commitments and where they ought to be to limit warming to 1.5°C, and explores ways to bridge the emissions gap. The 2023 report finds that there has been progress since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015. Greenhouse gas emissions in 2030, based on policies in place, were projected to increase by 16 per cent at the time of the agreement’s adoption. Today, the projected increase is 3 per cent. However, predicted 2030 greenhouse gas emissions still must fall by 28 per cent for the Paris Agreement 2°C pathway and 42 per cent for the 1.5°C pathway. As things stand, fully implementing unconditional Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) made under the Paris Agreement would put the world on track for limiting temperature rise to 2.9°C above pre-industrial levels this century. Fully implementing conditional NDCs would lower this to 2.5°C. more... less... 2023: https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2023 2022: https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2022 2021: https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2021 2020: https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020 Emissions Gap Report 10 year summary: https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-10-year-summary
• Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes WMO publication that gives an overview of impacts from weather, climate and water extremes globally from based on disaster data from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT). The 2023 update provides data that covers the period 1970 to 2021, while the 2021 edition provides an overview of the period 1970 to 2019. Findings include: extreme weather, climate and water-related events caused nearly 12 000 disasters from 1970-2021, reported economic losses are US$4.3 trillion and rising; the death toll is at 2 million, with 90% are in developing countries; mortality rates have fallen thanks to early warnings. The publication is available in English, French, Russian, Spanish, Chinese and Arabic.
• State of Climate Services WMO report that provides an annual overview on climate services. A climate service is a decision aide derived from climate information that assists individuals and organizations in society to make improved ex-ante decision-making. Climate services are essential for adaptation to climate variability and change. The 2022 State of Climate Services report focuses on the issue of energy. WMO has issued annual reports on the state of climate services since 2019 in response to a UN request for more information on adaptation needs of countries. more... less... 2022 press release: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/climate-change-puts-energy-security-risk 2022 report interactive digital story map: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/bccf0afe292241959d7d7c10db066514 2022 report: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/bccf0afe292241959d7d7c10db066514 2021 report: https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=21963#.Y0bfIHZBzIU
• State of Global Water Resources WMO report first published in 2022 to assess the effects of climate, environmental and societal change on the Earth’s water resources. The aim of this annual stocktake is to support monitoring and management of global freshwater resources in an era of growing demand and limited supplies. more... less... Press release 2022: http://o.int/en/media/press-release/state-of-global-water-resources-report-informs-rivers-land-water-storage-and Video presentation of 2021 report: https://youtu.be/-QaXN9I1UNI
• State of the Climate in Africa WMO's The State of the Climate in Africa report provides details of extreme weather and climate change impacts in the entire region, with information on climate indicators including temperatures, ocean heat and acidification, sea level rise and glaciers, as well as on extreme events like tropical cyclones, heatwaves, drought, heavy precipitation and cold waves. It highlights the impacts of the changing climate on agriculture and food security, migration and displacement, socioeconomic development, the environment and ecosystem services. The 2021 is the result of collaboration between the African Union Commission (AUC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and other specialized agencies of the United Nations and is the third in the series, with a special emphasis on water resources, a pivotal sector for human and ecosystem health and sustainable socio-economic development of Africa. more... less... 2021 report: 2021 report: https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=22125#.Y2PoxnbMKUk See the 2021 press release: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/state-of-climate-africa-highlights-water-stress-and-hazards
• State of the Climate in Asia The report on the State of the Climate in Asia 2022 is the result of collaboration between NMHSs in the region, the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and other specialized agencies of the United Nations. This multi-agency effort provides a summary of the state of climate, extreme events and their socio-economic impacts in Asia region in 2022. The 2022 report is the third in the series of the report. more... less... 2022: https://library.wmo.int/records/item/66314-state-of-the-climate-in-asia-2022 2021: https://library.wmo.int/records/item/58229-state-of-the-climate-in-asia-2021 2020: https://library.wmo.int/records/item/57695-state-of-the-climate-in-asia-2020
• State of the Climate in Europe The WMO State of the Climate in Europe 2021, is the first edition of climate reports to be published annually by the World Meteorological Organization’s Regional Association for Europe (WMO-RA6) and the European Union's Earth observation programme, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C32). It includes the the invaluable contribution of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), WMO Regional Climate Centre Network for Europe, the Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S), the United Nations (UN) agencies, and the numerous experts and scientists from the region and worldwide. more... less... 2021 report: https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=22152#.Y2Pnw3bMKUl Press release 2021 report: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/temperatures-europe-increase-more-twice-global-average
• State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean Extreme weather and climate shocks are becoming more acute in Latin America and the Caribbean, as the long-term warming trend and sea level rise accelerate, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2022 report shows how climate change is triggering a vicious cycle of events, with spiralling impacts on countries and local communities. more... less... 2022: https://library.wmo.int/records/item/66252-state-of-the-climate-in-latin-america-and-the-caribbean-2022 2021: https://library.wmo.int/records/item/58014-state-of-the-climate-in-latin-america-and-the-caribbean-2021
• State of the Climate in South-West Pacific Weather-related disasters and climate change impacts are unravelling the fabric of society in the South-West Pacific. Sea level rise threatens the future of low-lying islands whilst increasing ocean heat and acidification harms vital and vulnerable marine ecosystems, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 2022 report provides a snapshot of climate indicators including temperatures, sea level rise, ocean heat and acidification, and extreme weather events in 2022. It also highlights the socio-economic risks and impacts on key sectors like agriculture. The report, along with an interactive story map, is one of a series of five regional reports and a global report from WMO providing the latest climate insights to inform decision-making. more... less... 2022: https://library.wmo.int/records/item/66342-state-of-the-climate-in-south-west-pacific-2022 2021: https://library.wmo.int/records/item/58225-state-of-the-climate-in-south-west-pacific-2021 2020: https://library.wmo.int/records/item/57732-state-of-the-climate-in-south-west-pacific-2020
• State of the Global Climate Since 1993, the WMO, through the Commission for climatology and in cooperation with its Members, has issued annual statements on the status of the global climate to provide credible scientific information on climate and its variability. The 2023 report shows that records were once again broken for for greenhouse gas levels, surface temperatures, ocean heat and acidification, sea level rise, Antarctic sea ice cover and glacier retreat. The WMO report confirmed that 2023 was the warmest year on record, with the global average near-surface temperature at 1.45 °Celsius (with a margin of uncertainty of ± 0.12 °C) above the pre-industrial baseline. It was the warmest ten-year period on record. The 2023 report was released ahead of World Meteorological Day on 23 March and sets the scene for a new climate action campaign by the UN Development Programme and WMO (21 March 2024 launch). It will inform discussions at a climate ministerial meeting in Copenhagen on 21-22 March 2024. Dozens of experts and partners contributed to the report, including UN organizations, National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and Global Data and Analysis Centers, as well as Regional Climate Centres, the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW), the Global Cryosphere Watch and Copernicus Climate Change Service operated by ECMWF. more... less... 2023 report: https://wmo.int/publication-series/state-of-global-climate-2023 2022 report: https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=22265#.ZElBU3ZBxpX 2022 story map: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/6d9fcb0709f64904aee371eac09afbdf 2021 report: https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=22080#.YoZJ_NpBzcs 2021 interactive story: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/bbe6a05f6dae42f2a420cfdd7698e4b1 2020 report: https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=21880#.YYVQX51KjIV
• United in Science This annual report is compiled by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) under the direction of the UN Secretary-General to bring together the latest climate science related updates from a group of key global partner organizations. The 2022 report features updates from WMO, Global Carbon Project (GCP), Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), Met Office (United Kingdom), Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN) and World Climate Research Programme (WCRP - jointly sponsored by WMO/Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission(IOC)-UNESCO and the International Science Council (ISC). One of the key conclusions of the report: far more ambitious action is needed, if we are to avoid the physical and socioeconomic impacts of climate change having an increasingly devastating effect on the planet. more... less... 2022: https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=22128#.YyF5DnZBzIV 2021: https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=21946#.YUIhGGb7TX0 2020: https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=21761#.Ya82CNDMLIU 2019: https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=21523#.Ya82GtDMLIU
• WMO Bulletin The Bulletin is produced biannually in English, French, Russian and Spanish editions. It contains articles on all aspects of meteorology, climatology, hydrology, the environment and related fields, that are specifically prepared for the journal. Each issue is planned around a selected theme considered to be of topical interest.
• WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update The Global Annual to Decadal Update is one of a suite of WMO climate products, including the flagship State of the Global Climate, which seek to inform policy-makers. The UK’s Met Office acts as the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction, which harnesses expertise of climate scientists and prediction systems around the world to produce actionable information looking at climate predictions for the coming five year period. According to the 2023 update, there is a 66% likelihood that the annual average near-surface global temperature between 2023 and 2027 will be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year, and a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record. more... less... Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update released May 2023 for 2023-2027: https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=22272#.ZGTEbXZBxmM 2022-2026: https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=22083#.YoODWZ0zaUk 2021-2025: https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=22082 2020-2024: https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=22081
• WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin Published annually by WMO in Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Russian and Spanish, the bulletin contains the latest analysis of observations from the WMO Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme and shows the globally averaged mole fractions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) and compares them with the mole fractions during the previous year and with preindustrial levels. According to the 2023 bulletin, the abundance of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere once again reached a new record last year with no end in sight to the rising trend. more... less... 2023 Bulletin (no. 19): https://wmo.int/resources/publications/wmo-greenhouse-gas-bulletin-no-19 2023 press release: https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/greenhouse-gas-concentrations-hit-record-high-again 2022 Bulletin (no. 18): https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=22149#.Y10XNXZBzIU 2021 Bulletin (no. 17): https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=21975 Previous bulletins: https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=3030#.YYVR4J1KjIV
• WMO Statement on the state of the Global Climate Since 1993, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), through the Commission for climatology and in cooperation with its Members, has issued annual statements on the status of the global climate to provide credible scientific information on climate and its variability.
• UNDP Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) Global Outlook Report The UN Development Programme (UNDP) and UN Climate Change (UNFCCC) have been working together since 2014 to support countries in developing Nationally Determined Contributions - or NDCs. The 2022 report, The State of Climate Ambition Regional Snaphots provide regional analysis of Climate Promise supported countries NDC status and implementation readiness. The 2021 report, The State of Climate Ambition, explores trends emerging from "second-generation" pledges under the Paris Agreement and the opportunities being missed to accelerate climate action. The 2019 report, The Heat is On - Taking Stock of Global Climate Ambition, informed the UN Secretary-General's Climate Summit (September 2019). more... less... 2022 report: https://www.undp.org/publications/state-climate-ambition Africa: https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/2022-07/UNDP-The-State-of-Climate-Ambition-Africa.pdf Arab States: https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/2022-07/UNDP-The-State-of-Climate-Ambition-Arab-States.pdf Asia and the Pacific: https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/2022-07/UNDP-The-State-of-Climate-Ambition-Asia-Pacific.pdf Europe and Central Asia: https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/2022-07/UNDP-The-State-of-Climate-Ambition-ECIS.pdf Latin America and the Caribbean: https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/2022-07/UNDP-The-State-of-Climate-Ambition-LAC.pdf See also UNDP Climate Promise Progress Report : https://www.undp.org/publications/undp-climate-promise-progress-report 2021 report: https://www.undp.org/publications/nationally-determined-contributions-ndc-global-outlook-report-2021-state-climate https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/2021-11/UNDP-NDC-Global-Outlook-Report-2021-The-State-of-Climate-Ambition-V2.pdf 2019 report: https://outlook.ndcs.undp.org/ https://www.undp.org/publications/ndc-global-outlook-report-2019 https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/publications/NDC_Outlook_Report_2019.pdf
• Health and Climate Change Country Profiles These profiles, developed in collaboration with national governments, are part of the World Health Organization's monitoring of health sector response to climate change. The profiles summarize evidence of the climate hazards and health risks facing countries, track national progress in addressing the health threats from climate change and highlight opportunities for gaining health benefits from climate mitigation action. The profiles also provide an overview of key areas for taking action and provide links to available resources series.
• Health and Climate Change Global Survey WHO periodic report that tracks global progress on health sector response to climate change through country survey sent to the national health authorities, who in collaboration with other relevant ministries and stakeholders, provide updated information on key areas including: leadership and governance, national vulnerability and adaptation assessments, emergency preparedness, disease surveillance, adaptation and resilience measures, climate and health finance, and mitigation in the health sector. more... less... 2021 report: https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/348068 2017/2018 survey: https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/who-health-and-climate-change-survey-report-tracking-global-progress
• Health and Climate Change Urban Profiles The urban profiles, developed by the World Health Organization in collaboration with local governments, key stakeholders and international partners present a snapshot of climate change hazards and related health risks. They are a resource to raise awareness of health threats from climate hazards, summarize local adaptation and mitigation policies, identify benefits from tackling climate change and strengthen the case for action.
• Global Opportunity Report Series Report published by the UN Global Compact that investigates six sectors and analyzes how selected companies have turned climate risks into climate opportunities.
• Greening the Blue This yearly report details the UN System's environmental footprint and efforts to reduce it. Coordinating this work is the responsibility of the Sustainable United Nations (SUN) facility, working closely with focal points designated by UN organisations who are members of the Environment Management Group (EMG). more... less... Sustainable United Nations (SUN) facility: https://www.unep.org/about-un-environment/sustainability/sustainable-united-nations UN Environment Management Group: https://unemg.org/ 2022 report: https://www.greeningtheblue.org/reports/greening-blue-report-2022
• IMF Staff Climate Notes Series by the International Monetary Fund that aims to quickly disseminate succinct IMF analysis on critical economic issues to member countries and the broader policy community. The IMF Staff Climate Notes provide analysis related to the impact of climate change on macroeconomic and financial stability, including on mitigation, adaptation, and transition. The views expressed in IMF Staff Climate Notes are those of the author(s), although they do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, or its Executive Board, or its management.
• Special Rapporteur on human rights and the environment annual thematic reports The Special Rapporteur submits a report to the UN Human Rights Council as well as to the UN General Assembly on an annual basis, as mandated by the UN Human Rights Council resolution 37/8.
• The Sustainable Development Goals Report This annual United Nations report reviews progress of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. more... less... 2022 report: https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2022/
• Trade and Environment Review Periodic report by UNCTAD focused on trade and the environment. The 2021 edition examines the physical impacts of climate change and effects on developing country economies and trade; the vulnerabilities of developing countries to climate change; costs and finance for climate change adaptation; and ways that developing countries can enhance the resilience of their trade to climate change through adaptation actions and economic diversification. more... less... Trade and Environment Review 2021: https://unctad.org/webflyer/trade-and-environment-review-2021
• UNECE support for climate action Publication that focuses on the practical tools the UN Economic Commission for Europe provides to support countries in their climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts, to leverage financing, and to strengthen collaboration. more... less... 2023: https://unece.org/sites/default/files/2023-10/UNECE%20Climate%20Action_Brochure_WEB%20%282%29.pdf 2022: https://unece.org/sites/default/files/2022-11/UNECE%20Climate%20Action_Brochure_WEB%20%282%29.pdf

IPCC Reports

• Special Reports
• IPCC Reports The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) prepares comprehensive Assessment Reports about knowledge on climate change, its causes, potential impacts and response options. The IPCC also produces Special Reports, which are an assessment on a specific issue and Methodology Reports, which provide practical guidelines for the preparation of greenhouse gas inventories.

AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2022

The IPCC is currently in its Sixth Assessment cycle, during which the IPCC will produce the Assessment reports of its three Working Groups, three Special Reports, a refinement to the methodology report and the Synthesis Report.  The Synthesis Report will be the last of the AR6 products, due for release in late 2022 or early 2023.

AR6 Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change

The Working Group III contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report was finalized 4 April 2022.

AR6 Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

The Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report was released 28 February 2022.

AR6 Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis

The Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report (August 2021) is the most up-to-date physical understanding of the climate system and climate change, bringing together the latest advances in climate science, and combining multiple lines of evidence from paleoclimate, observations, process understanding, and global and regional climate simulations.

The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate

The IPCC approved and accepted the Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate  at its 51st Session held on 20 – 23 September 2019. The approved Summary for Policymakers (SPM) was presented at a press conference on 25 September 2019. The report highlights the urgency of prioritizing timely, ambitious and coordinated action to address unprecedented and enduring changes in the ocean and cryosphere. The report reveals the benefits of ambitious and effective adaptation for sustainable development and, conversely, the escalating costs and risks of delayed action.

Climate Change, Desertification, Land Degradation, Sustainable Land Management, Food Security, and Greenhouse gas fluxes in Terrestrial Ecosystems

This Special Report on Climate Change and Land by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published in August 2019 responds to the Panel decision in 2016 to prepare three Special Reports during the Sixth Assessment cycle, taking account of proposals from governments and observer organizations. This report addresses greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes in land-based ecosystems, land use and sustainable land management in relation to climate change adaptation and mitigation, desertification, land degradation and food security.

2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

The 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories was adopted and accepted during the 49th Session of the IPCC in May 2019. It was prepared by the Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (TFI) in accordance with the decision taken at the 44th Session of IPCC in Bangkok, Thailand, in October 2016.

Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation  (March 2012)

Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation  (April 2011)

AR5: Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC

Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2014

The Synthesis Report (SYR) of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) provides an overview of the state of knowledge concerning the science of climate change, emphasizing new results since the publication of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) in 2007.

Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis

The Working Group I contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of the physical science basis of climate change since 2007 when the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) was released.

AR5 Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability

The assessment of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (WGII AR5) evaluates how patterns of risks and potential benefits are shifting due to climate change since 2007 when the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) was released.

AR5 Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change

The Working Group III contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) assesses literature on the scientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects of mitigation of climate change since 2007 when the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) was released.

AR4: Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC

AR4 Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report

AR4 Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability

AR4 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis

AR4 Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change

Latest Climate Change reports posted to Reliefweb

• Reliefweb: Climate Change & Environment, all updates & reports

GEF reports

• Selected recent reports
• The Global Environment Facility (GEF) - Publications The GEF is an international partnership of 184 countries, international institutions, civil society organizations and the private sector that addresses global environmental issues. The GEF Trust Fund was established on the eve of the 1992 Rio Earth Summit to help tackle the planet's most pressing environmental problems. GEF funds are available to developing countries and countries with economies in transition to meet the objectives of the international environmental conventions and agreements. The Publications page links to resources dating back to 2000.
• The Capacity-building Initiative for Transparency (CBIT)
• Financing Adaptation to Climate Change at the GEF
• The GEF and Climate Change - Catalysing Transformation
• Reflecting on 30 Years of the GEF
• UNFCCC Guidance from the COPs and Responses by the GEF: COP1-COP25

Select non-UN reports, articles, resources on Climate Change

• Annual/Periodic
• 2019 & earlier
• Climate Bulletins
• Climate Finance and the USD 100 Billion Goal
• Climate Transparency Report
• Environmental Performance Index Report more... less... 2022 report: https://epi.yale.edu/downloads/epi2022report06062022.pdf EPI archive: https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/collection/epi/sets/browse
• European State of the Climate more... less... 2022: https://climate.copernicus.eu/esotc/2022
• The Forest Declaration Assessment more... less... 2023 Assessment: https://forestdeclaration.org/resources/forest-declaration-assessment-2023/
• GHG emissions of all world countries
• Global Climate Highlights
• Global Energy Review more... less... 2021 report: https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-co2-emissions-in-2021-2
• Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change Report more... less... 2023 report: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(23)01859-7/fulltext 2022 report: https://www.lancetcountdown.org/2022-report/ 2021 report: https://www.lancetcountdown.org/2021-report/ 2020 report: https://www.lancetcountdown.org/2020-report/ 2019 report: https://www.lancetcountdown.org/2019-report/
• National Climate Assessment
• Renewables more... less... Renewables 2022 - report released December 2022: https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2022
• State of Climate Action more... less... 2023 report: https://www.wri.org/research/state-climate-action-2023 2022 report: https://www.wri.org/research/state-climate-action-2022 2021 report: https://www.wri.org/research/state-climate-action-2021 2020 report: https://www.wri.org/research/state-climate-action-assessing-progress-toward-2030-and-2050
• World Energy Outlook more... less... 2023 report: https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2023 2022 report: https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2022 2021 report: https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2021
• A Multitemporal Snapshot of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Israel-Gaza Conflict January 2024 paper that examines the projected emissions from the first 60 das of the Israel Gaza war, also considering the war infrastructure built by both Hamas and Israel, and the carbon costs of reconstructing Gaza. The paper argues that the ad-hoc nature of the calculations points to the urgent need for mandatory military emissions reporting through the UNFCCC.
• The Carbon Majors Database Launch Report This April 2024 report by InfluenceMap using the Carbon Majors database quantifies the contribution of the world’s largest oil, gas, coal, and cement producers to global carbon emissions, which are the primary driver of climate change. This report shows that the majority of global CO2 emissions produced since the Paris Agreement can be traced to a small group of high emitters who are failing to slow production. more... less... PDF: https://influencemap.org/site//data/000/027/Carbon_Majors_Launch_Report.pdf
• 10 actions for greener parliaments 2023 publication from the IPU Secretariat that identifies 10 key actions parliaments and parliamentarians can undertake to help address the climate crisis and pave the way for stronger climate action. more... less... English pdf: https://www.ipu.org/file/16289/download French pdf: https://www.ipu.org/file/16290/download Spanish pdf: https://www.ipu.org/file/16291/download Arabic pdf: https://www.ipu.org/file/16340/download
• Addressing Loss and Damage: What can we learn from countries’ National Adaptation Plans? May 2023 report published by the NAP Global Network that showcases the role of NAP processes in minimizing and addressing loss and damage through a systematic review of NAP documents and interviews with key informants. It provides insights into how loss and damage information is presented in relation to adaptation efforts and how adaptation priorities identified in the NAPs have the potential to respond to loss and damage.
• Another Year of Record Heat for the Oceans January 2023 article published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences that examines the ocean heat content (OHC) for 2022, which indicate that the world's ocean were again the hottest in the historical record and exceed the previous 2021 record maximum. Water cycels have been profoundly altered due to the emission of greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic substances by human activities, driving pervasive changes in Earth's climate system.
• Burning Billions: Record public money for fossil fuels impeding climate action November 2023 report by IISD provides the latest data on global public financial flows to fossil fuels and clean energy in advance of UN Climate Change Conference COP 28.
• Climate Equality: A planet for the 99% November 2023 Oxfam report that examines the twin crises of climate breakdown and runaway inequality and calls for a radical reduction in inequality, transformative climate action and fundamentally shifting society's economic goals in order to save the planet and ensure wellbeing for all. more... less... Arabic executive summary: https://oi-files-d8-prod.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2023-11/Executive%20summary_Climate%20Equality_Arabic.pdf French executive summary: https://oi-files-d8-prod.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2023-11/VF%20Resume%CC%81%20executif_Oxfam_Franc%CC%A7ais%20.pdf Spanish executive summary: https://oi-files-d8-prod.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2023-11/Executive%20Summary%20Climate%20Equality_ESPANOL.pdf
• Financing a 1.5˚C-Aligned Transition This July 2023 briefing paper published by IISD builds on the analysis of the most influential modeled pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C to provide financial institutions with Paris-aligned investment criteria and strategies.
• International Public Opinion on Climate Change, 2023 November 2023 report by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, Data for Good at Meta, and Rare's Center for Behavior and the Environment, which results from an international survey investigating public climate change knowledge, beliefs, attitudes, policy preferences and behavior among Facebook users.
• Quantifying the human cost of global warming May 2023 article published in Nature Sustainability that examines the human costs of climate change, expressed in terms of numbers of people left outside the ‘human climate niche’. By end-of-century (2080–2100), current policies leading to around 2.7 °C global warming could leave one-third (22–39%) of people outside this niche. The article highlights the need for more decisive policy action to limit the human costs and inequities of climate change.
• Shifting Public Financial Flows From Fossil Fuels to Clean Energy Under the Paris Agreement The March 2023 report by the International Institute for Sustainable Development is their Energy Program Submission to the UNFCCC First Global Stocktake, and assesses global progress made on aligning public financial flows —such as subsidies and other forms of government support —with the need to reduce emissions within a pathway for a safe climate.
• The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal 2023 global assessment of the state of CDR; the project has been devised and convened by researchers Oliver Geden (German Institute for International and Security Affairs, SWP), Jan Minx (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, (MCC), Berlin), Gregory Nemet (University of Wisconsin-Madison) and Stephen M Smith (University of Oxford), and led by the University of Oxford’s Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment. The report finds a gap between proposed CDR deployment and what will be needed to meet the Paris temperature goal to limit warming to well below 2°C and pursue efforts to achieve 1.5°C. more... less... Download the report: https://www.stateofcdr.org/s/SoCDR-1st-edition-2023-V9.pdf
• 1.5°C Pathways for the EU27: accelerating climate action to deliver the Paris Agreement more... less... report PDF: https://climateanalytics.org/media/1-5pathwaysforeu27-2022.pdf
• 2022 Global Food Policy Report: Climate Change and Food Systems more... less... https://www.ifpri.org/publication/2022-global-food-policy-report-climate-change-and-food-systems PDF: https://www.ifpri.org/cdmref/p15738coll2/id/135889/filename/136101.pdf
• Climate change anxiety and mental health: Environmental activism as buffer
• Climate Collateral: How military spending accelerates climate breakdown
• Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios more... less... https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.210814611
• Environment of Peace: Security in a New Era of Risk more... less... Environment of Peace initiative: https://www.sipri.org/research/peace-and-development/environment-peace
• Estimating the military's global greenhouse gas emissions
• Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points more... less... Read the overview from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research here: https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/risk-of-passing-multiple-climate-tipping-points-escalates-above-1-5degc-global-warming
• Forests for Climate: Scaling up Forest Conservation to Reach Net Zero more... less... report PDF: https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Forests_for_Climate_2022.pdf
• High temperatures exacerbated by climate change made 2022 Northern Hemisphere droughts more likely more... less... Full study pdf: https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/WCE-NH-drought-scientific-report.pdf
• Just energy transition partnerships in the context of Africa-Europe relations: Reflections from South Africa, Nigeria and Senegal
• La Genève internationale et l'urgence climatique
• The Land Gap Report
• Loss and Damage finance in the climate negotiations
• Mapping Report on Climate Change Laws and Policies in Climate Vulnerable Countries more... less... Report pdf: https://thecvf.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/GLOBE-CVF-Climate-Laws-Report-June-2022.pdf
• National attribution of historical climate damages
• Navigating Energy Transitions: Mapping the road to 1.5°C
• Net zero guidelines: ISO IWA 42:2022
• The Paris Agreement's Global Stocktake: Integrating Non-Party Stakeholders into an Inclusive Stocktake
• Reporting extreme weather and climate change: a guide for journalists more... less... English pdf: https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/ENG_WWA-Reporting-extreme-weather-and-climate-change.pdf French pdf: https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/FR_WWA-Les-evenements-meteorologiques-extremes-et-le-changement-climatique.pdf
• The Science of Climate Impacts: Eight humanitarian insights from the latest IPCC report more... less... Publication pdf: https://www.climatecentre.org/wp-content/uploads/The-Science-of-Climate-Impact_IPCCAR6-WG2-cartoon-summary.pdf
• Solar geoengineering: The case for an international non-use agreement
• The State of Nationally Determined Contributions: 2022
• Trade and Climate Change - What yardstick for net-zero?
• Understanding and responding to the protection needs of climate activists and movements more... less... Full report pdf: https://www.universal-rights.org/download.php?file=https://www.universal-rights.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Report-increasing-support-for-climate-activists.pdf
• World Trade Report 2022: Climate Change and International Trade
• #The time is now - The case for universal recognition of the right to a safe, clean, healthy and sustainable environment more... less... Full report pdf: https://www.universal-rights.org/download.php?file=https://www.universal-rights.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/2021_URG_R2HE_TIME_REPORT_MM.pdf
• Arab Climate Futures more... less... PDF: https://www.iss.europa.eu/sites/default/files/EUISSFiles/CP_170_0.pdf
• Call for emergency action to limit global temperature increases, restore biodiversity, and protect health
• Climate Change and the Global Inequality of Carbon Emissions, 1990-2020 more... less... Study: https://wid.world/document/climate-change-the-global-inequality-of-carbon-emissions-1990-2020-world-inequality-lab-working-paper-2021-21/ Data: https://wid.world/world#lpfghg_p90p100_z/US;FR;DE;CN;ZA;GB;WO/2019/eu/k/p/yearly/l/false/2.92/100/curve/false/country
• COP26: What Happened, What Does This Mean, and What Happens Next
• Financing Climate Action and the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Analysis of 17 Developing Countries
• Gender and national climate planning
• Managing Climate Risks, Facing up to Losses and Damages
• Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector
• Pathways of climate resilience over the 21st century
• The Physical Science of Climate Change: Seven key humanitarian insights from the latest IPCC report more... less... Publication pdf: https://www.climatecentre.org/wp-content/uploads/IPCC-AR6-WG1-SPM-Cartoon_infused-humanitarian-insights-.pdf ICRC blog post: https://blogs.icrc.org/inspired/2021/08/17/the-physical-science-of-climate-change-seven-key-humanitarian-insights-from-the-2021-ipcc-report/
• Trade and Climate Change - Mapping Paper: Trade Policies Adopted to Address Climate Change
• World Energy Transitions Outlook: 1.5°C Pathway
• Behavioral Insights for Climate Action
• Climate Finance Shadow Report 2020: Assessing Progress Towards the $100 Billion Commitment
• The Global Risks Report 2020 more... less... Report pdf: http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Risk_Report_2020.pdf
• Peatland protection and restoration are key for climate change mitigation
• Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth’s climate by 2050
• What is climate-smart programming and how do we achieve it?
• When Rain Turns to Dust : Understanding and Responding to the Combined Impact of Armed Conflicts and the Climate and Environment Crisis on People's Lives more... less... Find more resources from the ICRC on climate change and conflict on their dedicated page: https://www.icrc.org/en/what-we-do/climate-change-conflict
• World Heritage and Climate Change : Impacts and Adaptation
• Accelerating Climate Action : Refocusing Policies through a Well-being Lens
• Adapt Now : A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience
• Climate Emergency, Urban Opportunity
• Global energy transformation: A roadmap to 2050 (2019 edition)
• Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2019
• Key Policy Issues in the Green Climate Fund: A Guide for the Perplexed
• L’essentiel: Climat et Agenda 2030
• Nature-based Solutions in Nationally Determined Contributions more... less... PDF: https://portals.iucn.org/library/sites/library/files/documents/2019-030-En.pdf
• Ocean for Climate : Ocean-related Measures in Climate Strategies (Nationally Determined Contributions, National Adaptation Plans, Adaptation Communications and National Policy Frameworks)
• Sustainable development impacts of climate change and natural disaster. more... less... Paper pdf: https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/wp-content/uploads/sites/45/publication/SDO_BP_Koubi.pdf
• World Scientists' Warning of a Climate Emergency
• The Uninhabitable Earth
• The Carbon Majors Database : CDP Carbon Majors Report 2017
• Comma but Differentiated Responsibilities: Punctuation and 30 Other Ways Negotiators Have Resolved Issues in the International Climate Change Regime

ICAT Assessment Guides

Published in November 2019 by the United Nations Office for Project Services ( UNOPS ), and prepared by the Initiative for Climate Action Transparency ( ICAT ), the Introduction to the ICAT Assessment Guides provides an overview of how to use this series of guides which help users asses the impacts of countries' climate policies and actions by providing methodologies to assess greenhouse gases, sustainable development and transformational impacts of polices and actions.

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How climate change could be affecting your brain

A new element of the catastrophic impacts of climate change is emerging -- how global warming is impacting the human brain.

In a paper published today in Nature Climate Change , an international team of academics explore the ways in which research has shown that a changing environment affects how our brains work, and how climate change could impact our brain function in the future. The paper is led by the University of Vienna with input from the universities of Geneva, New York, Chicago, Washington, Stanford, Exeter in the UK and the Max Plank Institute in Berlin. It also explores the role that neuroscientists can play in further understanding and addressing these challenges.

Lead author Dr Kimberly C. Doell, of the University of Vienna, said: "We've long known that factors in our environment can lead to changes in the brain. Yet we're only just beginning to look at how climate change, the greatest global threat of our time, might change our brains. Given the increasingly frequent extreme weather events we're already experiencing, alongside factors such as air pollution, the way we access nature and the stress and anxiety people experience around climate change, it's crucial that we understand the impact this could all have on our brains. Only then can we start to find ways to mitigate these changes."

Since the 1940s, scientists have known from mouse studies that changing environmental factors can profoundly change the development and plasticity of the brain. This effect as also been seen in humans in research looking at the effects of growing up in poverty, which found disturbances to brain systems, including lack of cognitive stimulation, exposure to toxins, poor nutrition, and heightened childhood stress. While not entirely surprising, this research highlights the profound impact that one's environment can have on their brain.

Now, the authors are calling for research to explore the impact on the human brain of being exposed to more extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, droughts, and hurricanes, and associated forest fires and floods. They believe such events may change brain structure, function, and overall health, and also call for more research to evaluate how this may explain changes in well-being and behaviour.

The paper also explores the role that neuroscience can play in influencing the way we think about climate change, our judgments and how we respond.

Dr Mathew White, of the Universities of Exeter and Vienna, is a co-author on the study. He said: "Understanding neural activity that is relevant to motivations, emotions and temporal horizons may help predict behaviour, and improve our understanding of, underlying barriers preventing people from behaving as pro-environmentally as they might wish. Both brain function and climate change are highly complex areas. We need to start seeing them as interlinked, and to take action to protect our brains against the future realities of climate change, and start using our brains better to cope with what is already happening and prevent the worse-case scenarios."

• Brain-Computer Interfaces
• Intelligence
• Neuroscience
• Brain Injury
• Environmental Awareness
• Global Warming
• Environmental Issues
• Global warming controversy
• Climate change mitigation
• Consensus of scientists regarding global warming
• Global warming
• IPCC Report on Climate Change - 2007
• Attribution of recent climate change
• Scientific opinion on climate change
• Temperature record of the past 1000 years

Story Source:

Materials provided by University of Exeter . Original written by Louise Vennells. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.

Journal Reference :

• Kimberly C. Doell, Marc G. Berman, Gregory N. Bratman, Brian Knutson, Simone Kühn, Claus Lamm, Sabine Pahl, Nik Sawe, Jay J. Van Bavel, Mathew P. White, Tobias Brosch. Leveraging neuroscience for climate change research . Nature Climate Change , 2023; DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01857-4

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Multiple Authors

The year 2023 saw the coronation at Westminster Abbey of a new king, the mugshot of a former US president and the rebranding of a social media platform to a single letter.

But behind the biggest stories of the year, thousands of studies detailing new research also made the headlines. And climate change and energy were among the topics that received the most attention.

Each year, Altmetric tracks how often research papers from academic journals are mentioned in online news articles as well as on blogs and social media platforms. It then gives each paper a score according to the attention it receives.

Using Altmetric data for 2023, Carbon Brief has compiled its annual list of the 25 most talked-about climate- or energy-related papers that were published the previous year.

(The list focuses on peer-reviewed research papers only – commentaries or other papers that are not formally peer-reviewed are not included.)

The infographic above shows which papers made it into the top 10, while the article includes analysis of the full list of 25 , including the diversity of their authors and which journals feature most frequently.

The list covers research into the climate projections of a major oil company, the human cost of global warming and the catastrophic failure of breeding penguins – as well as the curious case of the high-scoring paper that received almost no news coverage at all.

Antarctic ice shelves

The most talked-about journal papers of 2023 are again dominated by research relating to Covid-19, continuing the pattern seen in recent years .

For example, the highest-scoring paper of any published in 2023 is a review into the effectiveness of measures to reduce the spread of respiratory viruses, such as Covid, swine flu and severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars). 

The study’s Altmetric score of 25,730 puts it almost 10,000 points ahead of the second-placed paper , which is also about Covid.

But the top-scoring paper relating to climate is not far behind, landing fourth in the overall list with a score of 13,886.

The study, “ Change in Antarctic ice shelf area from 2009 to 2019 ”, gains the highest score for any climate paper in any of Carbon Brief’s annual reviews by some distance – the previous highest was 7,803 in 2022 .

(For Carbon Brief’s previous Altmetric articles, see the links for 2022 , 2021 , 2020 , 2019 , 2018 , 2017 , 2016 and 2015 .)

The study, published in the Cryosphere, uses satellite observations to produce a dataset of changes in the “calving front” – that is, where icebergs break off – and area of the ice shelves that surround Antarctica between 2009 and 2019. It shows that, overall, the area of Antarctic ice shelves has grown by around 5,300 square kilometres (km2) since 2009, with 18 ice shelves retreating and 16 larger shelves growing in area.

Specifically, ice-shelf area has decreased on the Antarctic Peninsula (by 6,693km2) and in west Antarctica (by 5,563km2), and increased in east Antarctica (by 3,532km2) and on the large Ross and Ronne-Filchner ice shelves (by 14,028km2), the paper says.

The map from the study below shows the growth (blue) and retreat (red) of ice shelves around Antarctica, where the size of the circles indicates the scale of the change from 2009 to 2019.

While the high scores of climate-related papers in previous years have primarily been driven by news coverage, this paper appears in just seven news stories.

As study author Prof Anna Hogg from the University of Leeds explains to Carbon Brief: 

“Somewhat unusually, we didn’t put out a press release for the paper as we assumed the scientific community that needed the dataset would make use of it naturally.”

Instead, the paper’s high Altmetric score is principally a result of a huge number of mentions on Twitter – more than 63,000 posts from around 48,000 accounts. (Altmetric includes weightings in its scoring system, so news articles (with a weighting of eight) are deemed to have more impact than tweets (0.25).)

A closer look suggests that the paper has been widely quoted by the Twitter accounts of a number of prominent climate sceptics in an attempt to push back on concerns around climate change and the loss of Antarctic ice. These posts have then been widely retweeted by other accounts. 

To see the paper “being used as evidence to suggest that climate change isn’t happening” was a “real surprise”, says Hogg, because the paper “doesn’t make any such statement”.

Specifically, the gains the study identifies in ice-shelf area in east Antarctica do not detract from the risks of retreating ice shelves on other parts of the continent, says Hogg:

“The decrease in ice shelf area in west Antarctica is particularly important as this ice shelf area actively ‘buttresses’ the flow of ice from the ice sheet behind it, which through ice dynamic processes is one of the reasons why west Antarctica is contributing significantly to present-day sea level rise.” 

Indeed, the seventh most-talked about paper in 2023 (see below) is a Nature Climate Change study warning that accelerated melt of west Antarctica’s ice shelves is now locked in, even for the most ambitious emissions reduction scenarios. The authors provide this stark conclusion:

“These results suggest that mitigation of greenhouse gases now has limited power to prevent ocean warming that could lead to the collapse of the west Antarctic ice sheet.”

The misleading way the study has been used by some climate-sceptic social media accounts has been “incredibly challenging”, says Hogg, with the authors unable “to reply to every incorrect tweet” about their work. However, they did find “a fair number” of responses from other accounts “saying that they had read the paper and it didn’t provide evidence against climate change”. 

This perhaps shows “open access doing its job”, says Hogg, as the paper was published in an open-access journal and so is freely available for anyone to read. In another high-scoring statistic, the full paper has now been viewed more than 150,000 times on the journal’s website.

Landing in second place with an Altmetric score of 8,686 is the review paper, “ Assessing ExxonMobil’s global warming projections ”. Published in Science, the study analyses the global warming projections documented and modelled by scientists at the oil major ExxonMobil between 1977 and 2003. 

(There is a higher-scoring paper, “ The 2023 state of the climate report: Entering uncharted territory ”, in the journal BioScience, but it is a “special report” and was not formally peer reviewed.)

The results indicate that “in private and academic circles since the late 1970s and early 1980s, ExxonMobil predicted global warming correctly and skillfully”, the paper says, adding: 

“ExxonMobil’s average projected warming was 0.20C ±0.04C per decade, which is, within uncertainty, the same as that of independent academic and government projections published between 1970 and 2007.”

The findings reveal that ExxonMobil “knew as much as academic and government scientists knew” about global warming decades ago. But, the paper adds, “whereas those scientists worked to communicate what they knew, ExxonMobil worked to deny it”.

The study was covered by 823 news stories by 555 outlets, including BBC News , the Associated Press , CNN , Vice , CNBC and Inside Climate News . It was also included in 48 blog posts and more than 13,000 tweets. It is the 12th most talked-about paper on any topic in 2023.

Extreme heat

In third place is the Nature Medicine paper, “ Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022 ”, with a score of 7,821. The study finds that more than 60,000 deaths in the summer of 2022 – Europe’s hottest season on record – were linked to the heat. 

Across 35 countries, the highest numbers of heat-related deaths occurred in Italy (18,010 deaths), Spain (11,324) and Germany (8,173), the study says. It also finds that the “burden of heat-related mortality was higher among women”, with 56% more heat-related deaths in women than men, relative to population.

The study was picked up in 943 news stories from more than 650 outlets – the largest number of any paper in the top 25. It was picked up by outlets across Europe, including Sky News and ITV News in the UK, Agence France-Presse in France and Der Spiegel in Germany. Carbon Brief also covered the article in detail.

The widespread coverage was likely to be in part because Europe was experiencing a heatwave dubbed “ Cerberus ” when the paper was published in July. 

Lead author Dr Joan Ballester Claramunt from the Barcelona Institute for Global Health tells Carbon Brief that the paper also “received so much attention from the media because society is increasingly aware of the health risks of environmental factors, and particularly in a context of rapidly warming temperatures”. 

Rest of the top 10

In fourth place is, “ Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ”, which was published in Nature Communications. 

The study uses statistical techniques to detect early warning signs of a shutdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), one of the major current systems in the world’s oceans that plays a crucial role in regulating climate.

While assessments using climate model simulations typically suggest that AMOC is “unlikely” to pass a tipping point within the 21st century, the study says a collapse could occur “around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions”.

(Another paper that also uses observation-based early warning signals to assess the stability of AMOC featured in second place in Carbon Brief ’s leaderboard for 2021.)

The paper’s Altmetric score of 6,216 reflects its widespread news coverage, covering 672 stories from more than 500 outlets, including the Washington Post , Politico , El País , CNN and Der Spiegel .

The papers in fifth and ninth place both set out frameworks for assessing “safe” boundaries for the Earth to be a habitable place for humans. 

In fifth place with a score of 5,411 is the Science Advances paper, “ Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries ”. Providing the latest assessment of the boundaries that were first established in 2009 , the paper warns that “Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity”. 

The ninth-placed paper, “ Safe and just Earth system boundaries ”, shares a number of the same authors and sets out to quantify limits for “climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles and aerosols at global and subglobal scales”. When the paper was published in May, Carbon Brief reported on the mixed reaction the paper received from other scientists, including concerns that a “self-selected group of scientists” were defining the “safe space” for the planet.

In sixth place is the Science paper, “ Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters ”, which reveals a “strong linear relationship between global mean temperature increase and glacier mass loss”.

The study projects that glaciers outside of Antarctica and Greenland will lose between 26% and 41% of their collective mass by 2100, relative to 2015, under warming of 1.5C to 4C, respectively. Such a loss would cause 49-83% of glaciers to disappear and see 90-154mm added to global sea levels, the study says.

In seventh place is the Nature Climate Change paper, “ Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the 21st century ”, as mentioned above. The findings, the authors say, present a “sobering outlook” for ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea. 

The paper made an appearance in the Science round of Carbon Brief’s annual quiz . 

The eighth-placed paper is, Quantifying the human cost of global warming , published in Nature Sustainability. It quantifies this cost in terms of the number of people left outside the “climate niche” in which human civilisation has flourished for centuries. 

The study shows that climate change has already put around 9% of people outside this niche, and that, by end-of-century, current policies leading to around 2.7C global warming could leave 22-39% of people outside the niche as well.

Finally, rounding out the top 10 is, “ Climate extremes likely to drive land mammal extinction during next supercontinent assembly ”, in Nature Geoscience. 

The study looks at the prospects for humans and other mammals on Earth based on first-ever supercomputer climate modelling of the distant future. The knock-on impacts of all Earth’s continents eventually converging to form the supercontinent “Pangea Ultima” would see huge amounts of CO2 released into the air through volcanic eruptions, it says. 

The resulting global temperatures of up to 75C would, as a headline in the i newspaper put it, “one day wipe out humanity – but not for another 250m years”.

Elsewhere in the top 25

The rest of the top 25 includes a mix of research, including a paper on the impacts of El Niño on economic growth , a study on the environmental impacts of different types of diets and analysis of the amount of global warming still “ in the pipeline ” by former NASA scientist Dr James Hansen.

In 14th place is the Nature paper, “ Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets ”, which presents an updated estimate of the remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5C and 2C.

In a 2022 Carbon Brief guest post, some of the study authors present a similar analysis, concluding that the remaining carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5C could be just 260bn tonnes of CO2 (GtCO2) – the equivalent of around six years of emissions. They add:

“Cutting global CO2 emissions to zero by 2050, in line with limiting warming to 1.5C, would require them to fall by about 1.4GtCO2 every year, comparable to the drop in 2020 as a result of Covid-19 lockdowns around the world, but this time driven by a long-term, structural change of the economy.

“This highlights that the scale of the challenge is immense, no matter the precise figure of the rapidly shrinking carbon budget.”

Antarctic sea ice made headlines around the world both in 2022 and 2023, by setting two consecutive years of record low sea ice extent. In August 2023, researchers published a sobering study in Communications Earth and Environment under the title, “ Record low 2022 Antarctic sea ice led to catastrophic breeding failure of emperor penguins ”. 

The study finds that melting ice led to widespread “breeding failure” across Antarctic emperor penguin colonies and received widespread media attention. It has been mentioned in 537 news articles, generating headlines such as, “Thousands of penguins die in Antarctic ice breakup”, from BBC News and, “Thousands of penguin chicks killed by early sea ice breakup, study says”, in the Washington Post . 

The Guardian , New Scientist and Daily Telegraph were among the other publications that reported on the study. This surge of attention pushed the paper to 15th in the Carbon Brief ranking, with an Altmetric score of 3,551.

Meanwhile, the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change slipped down the rankings this year. After three years in the Carbon Brief’s top 10, this year’s report lands in 20th place with an Altmetric score of 3,191.

The report is an epic annual publication, which reviews vast swathes of literature and has more than 100 authors this year. This year’s report introduced some key new indicators of the links between climate change and human health. It was also the first to include projections on how the indicators might worsen in a warmer world.

The report finds that loss of labour due to heat exposure resulted in a $863bn loss of “potential income” in 2022. The agriculture sector was hit the hardest by the loss of labour, accounting for 82% of losses in least developed countries, the authors add.

Carbon Brief ’s coverage of the report highlights this loss of income due to heat stress. The graph below shows effective income losses in 2022 due to heat stress in agriculture (blue) and other sectors (red), as a percentage of GDP, by continent.

One spot below the Lancet report is a Geophysical Research Letters study which warns that climate change is making air turbulence stronger and more frequent. The findings, which were picked up in more than 500 news articles, have worrying implications for aircraft passengers.

Back in 2017, study author Dr Paul Williams wrote a Carbon Brief guest post warning that “the most severe [type of turbulence] – the kind that can launch passengers out of their seats and cause serious injuries – is set to become twice or even three times as common by the latter half of the century”. And a recent Carbon Brief guest post on the fastest jet stream winds – known as “jet streaks” – also forecasts an increase in clear-air turbulence for aircraft passengers. 

And in 24th place is the Nature paper, “ Glacial lake outburst floods threaten millions globally ”, with an Altmetric of 2,991. The study warns that 15 million people globally are exposed to impacts of potential “glacial lake outburst floods” (GLOFs). (For more on GLOFs, see Carbon Brief ’s guest post from 2020, which explains how lakes formed by melting glaciers around the world have increased in size by 50% over the past 30 years.)

Top journals

This year there is a clear winner for the journal with the most papers featuring in Carbon Brief’s top 25: Science takes top spot with five papers.

Following Science are the three journals of Nature Climate Change, Nature Communications and the Lancet, each with two papers in the top 25. 

For the rest of the top 25, the remaining 14 journals appear once each.

All the final scores for 2023 can be found in this spreadsheet .

Diversity of the top 25

The top 25 climate papers of 2023 cover a huge range of topics and scope. However, despite the variety in the climate research the papers present, analysis of their authors reveals a distinct lack of diversity.

In total, the top 25 climate papers of 2023 have more than 440 authors. Carbon Brief recorded the gender and country of affiliation for each of these authors. (The methodology used was developed by Carbon Brief for analysis presented in a special 2021 series on climate justice.)

The analysis reveals that the authors of the climate papers most featured in the media in 2023 are predominantly men from the global north.

The chart below shows the institutional affiliations of all authors in this analysis, broken down by continent – Europe, North America, Oceania, Asia, South America and Africa.

The analysis shows that nine out of every 10 authors are affiliated with institutions from the global north – defined as North America, Europe and Oceania. Meanwhile, only six authors are from Africa and South America.

Further data analysis shows that there are also inequalities within continents. The map below shows the percentage of authors from each country in the analysis, where dark blue indicates a higher percentage. Countries that are not represented by any authors in the analysis are shown in white.

The top-ranking countries on this map are the UK and the US, which together account for almost half of all authors in this analysis (25% and 18%, respectively).

More than half of all researchers from the global south are from China – which accounts for around 6% of all researchers in the analysis.

Meanwhile, only one-third of authors from the top 25 climate papers of 2022 are women. Similarly, only seven of the 25 papers have a female lead author.

The plot below shows the number of male (purple) and female (orange) authors in this analysis from each continent.

The full spreadsheet showing the results of this data analysis can be found here . For more on the biases in climate publishing, see Carbon Brief’s article on the lack of diversity in climate-science research .

DeBriefed 5 April 2024: Southern Africa’s drought ‘disaster’; Top electric car sales slump; Is Nigeria coping with extreme heat?

Factcheck: Why the recent ‘acceleration’ in global warming is what scientists expect

DeBriefed 28 March 2024: Amazon fund; China faces trade storm; How lifestyle changes could slash EU emissions

Explainer: Why some countries are aiming for ‘net-negative’ emissions

This article was written by Robert McSweeney and Ayesha Tandon and edited by Leo Hickman. Data analysis was carried out by Robert McSweeney and Ayesha Tandon. The main graphic was by Joe Goodman, and Kerry Cleaver and Ayesha Tandon contributed to the other visuals.

• Analysis: The climate papers most featured in the media in 2023

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Climate Change and the Geography of the U.S. Economy

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2023-17 | July 1, 2023

This paper examines how the spatial distribution of people and jobs in the United States has been and will be impacted by climate change. Using novel county-level weather data from 1951 to 2020, we estimate the longer-run effects of climate on local population, employment, wages, and house prices using a panel polynomial distributed lag (PDL) model. This model and the long historical data help capture important aspects of local climate changes, such as trends in temperature. The historical results point to long-lasting negative effects of extreme temperatures on each of the outcomes examined. A long lag structure is necessary to appropriately capture the longer-run effects of climate change, as short-run effects are small. Using county-level weather projections based on alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, we use the estimated models to project the spatial distribution of these local economic outcomes out to 2050. Our results point to substantial reallocations of people and jobs across the country over the next three decades, with mobility increasing by between 35 and nearly 100 percent depending on the scenario. Population and employment are projected to shift away from the Sunbelt and toward the North and Mountain West.

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Article Citation

Wilson, Daniel J., and Sylvain Leduc. 2023. “Climate Change and the Geography of the U.S. Economy,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2023-17. Available at https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2023-17

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Review article, navigating the impact of climate change in india: a perspective on climate action (sdg13) and sustainable cities and communities (sdg11).

• 1 Department of Environmental Science, Miranda House College, University of Delhi, New Delhi, India
• 2 Department of Botany, Aligarh Muslim University, Aligarh, India
• 3 Department of Environmental Science, Hindu College, University of Delhi, New Delhi, India
• 4 Air Quality Sustainable Cities & Transport, WRI India Ross Center for Sustainable Cities and Transport, Mumbai, India
• 5 Department of Environmental Studies, Zakir Husain Delhi College, University of Delhi, New Delhi, India

Climate change is a global concern of the current century. Its rapid escalation and ever-increasing intensity have been felt worldwide, leading to dramatic impacts globally. The aftermath of climate change in India has brought about a profound transformation in India's environmental, socio-economic, and urban landscapes. In 2019, India ranked seventh, among the most affected countries by extreme weather events caused due to changing climate. This impact was evident in terms of both, the human toll with 2,267 lives lost, and the economic damage, which accounted for 66,182 million US$ Purchasing power parities (PPPs). Over the recent years, India has experienced a significant increase in the number and frequency of extreme weather events, causing vulnerable communities. The country experienced severe air pollution problems in several metropolitan cities and was highlighted in the list of the world's most polluted cities. Additionally, India has become the most populous nation globally, boasting a population of 1.4 billion people, equating to ~18% of the global population, and experiencing an increased rate of consumption of natural resources. Owing to the country's current scenario, various climate mitigation strategies, including nature-based solutions, must be implemented to reduce such impacts and support India's target of achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This review tries to have a holistic understanding of the effects of climate change on different sectors to identify India's challenges in achieving SDG 13 and SDG 11. Finally, it also highlighted the future recommendations for climate change-related research from an Indian perspective.

1 Introduction

India, with its diverse geography, dense population, and intricate socio-economic fabric, is particularly susceptible to the changing climate. Notably, the issue of air pollution has become a prominent concern in India, further compounded by the effects of climate change. Air pollution in India is fueled by diverse sources, including industrial emissions, vehicular pollution, biomass burning, and dust particles ( Sahu and Saxena, 2015 ; Sonwani, 2016 ; Sonwani et al., 2021a , b , c , 2022a ; Hussain and Hoque, 2022b ). As per the World Air Quality Report State of Global Air (SoGA), many booming cities in India rank among the top 15 most polluted cities of the world viz. Delhi (1st rank), Kolkata (2nd rank) and Mumbai (14th rank).

The county has severe air pollution that triggers climate change and vice-versa. Air pollution and climate change, are closely intertwined ( Singh and Yadav, 2021 ; Sonwani et al., 2022b ). Matyssek et al. (2012) , described air pollution as a component of climate change. Anthropogenic emissions play a significant role in causing both air pollution and climate change. In addition to the greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as—carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), water vapor (H 2 O), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and Tropospheric ozone (O 3 ), air pollutants such as black carbon (BC), brown carbon (BrC) and aerosol also having significant impact on climate ( Ramanathan and Carmichael, 2008 ; Sonwani et al., 2021a , b , c , 2022a ). Apart from the direct climate impact of rising ground-level ozone, it also indirectly affects the lifespan of other GHGs like methane and causes additional climate impact ( Singh and Yadav, 2021 ). Conversely, climate change influences ozone concentrations through both dynamic and chemical changes in the atmosphere. Moreover, the rising earth's surface temperature causes glaciers' melting and sublimation, causing resulting in more atmospheric water vapor, additionally participating in secondary air pollutant formation causing ecological damage ( Saxena and Sonwani, 2019a ). Thus, we have scientific evidence which proves that air pollution and climate change together impact the composition of the atmosphere and are responsible for environmental damage.

Climate change is an unprecedented global challenge that has far-reaching consequences for countries around the world ( Klingenfeld and Schellnhuber, 2012 ; Haibach and Schneider, 2013 ). The aftermath of climate change in India manifests in various forms, including rising temperatures ( Krishnan et al., 2020 ), altered precipitation patterns ( Behera et al., 2019 ; Sonwani and Kulshrestha, 2019 ), increased regularity and strength of severe weather occurrences ( Hussain and Hoque, 2022a ; Saxena et al., 2022 ); sea-level rise ( Krishnan et al., 2020 ), instance and frequent forest fire incidences ( Jain et al., 2021 ), sever dust storm incidences and draft ( Maji and Sonwani, 2022 ). These impacts permeate critical sectors including agriculture, water resources, public health and biodiversity.

The pervasive effects of climate change in India span across multiple sectors, posing significant obstacles to achieving Sustainable Development Goal 13 (SDG 13) - Climate Action. The bad air quality with changing climate exacerbates one another issue, which is variable atmospheric composition ( D'Amato et al., 2002 ). This not only poses significant risks to respiratory illnesses and cardiovascular diseases ( Ravindra et al., 2019 ; Goel et al., 2021 ; Sonwani et al., 2022a ), but also impairs agricultural productivity ( Wiebe et al., 2019 ), economic loss ( Sathaye et al., 2006 ; Saurabh Sonwani and Vandana Maurya, 2019 ; Parikh and Bhavsar, 2023 ) disrupts vegetation and ecosystems, and hampers sustainable development ( Sonwani et al., 2022b ). The Climate India 2022 report by the Center for Science and Environment (CSE) highlighted that India recorded weather extremes on 22 out of 273 days between January to September 2022 ( Climate India, 2022 ).

Tackling the aftermath of climate change and addressing air pollution necessitates a comprehensive and interdisciplinary approach. Achieving SDG 13 requires adopting efficient strategies to minimize the release of greenhouse gases, smart agricultural practices, promoting renewable energy sources, and enhancing energy efficiency. Also, implementing adaptation strategies, green infrastructure, and environmentally sustainable and socially resilient cities, and efficient waste management approaches are crucial for SDG 11 to minimize the climate change impact ( Zakaria et al., 2020 ). Moreover, sustainable water management ( Xiang et al., 2021 ), air and watershed management and enhancing disaster preparedness with early warning system are also useful to combat changing climate ( Saxena and Sonwani, 2020 ; Hussain and Hoque, 2022a ).

The objective of this review is to highlight the current status and menace of air pollution and climate change and their pervasive effects in India. It also explores the potential solutions and related challenges to achieve SDG 13 ( Climate action ) with special reference to climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. Furthermore, the impact of the changing climate on SDG 11 (S ustainable Cities and Communities ) was also highlighted in reference to sustainable infrastructure and healthy well-being in the Indian context. A flow diagram summarizing the adverse effects of climate change, and possible strategies for achieving the targeted sustainable development goal has been presented in Figure 1 . This review makes an effort to have a holistic understanding of the effects of climate change (extreme events, warming, etc.) on different sectors (agriculture, health, and communities) so as to identify India's challenges in achieving SDG 13 and SDG 11.

Figure 1 . A schematic representation summarizing the adverse effects of climate change and possible strategies to achieve the selected sustainable goals.

2 Status of climate change in India

The susceptibility of developing countries to the consequences of climate change in comparison to developed countries is now widely recognized. This is due to the fragile ecological environments, high risk to economic systems, and low-income levels of the majority of citizens which limit the ability to adapt ( Panda, 2009 ). The rapid urbanization, alterations in river patterns, the impact of shifting cultivation practices, the spread of erosion, and the progression of desertification are resulting in significant changes in land use. These changes in land use have a direct correlation with the hydrological cycle, as noted by Sreenivasulu and Bhaskar (2010) , and they play a pivotal role in causing extensive transformations within associated ecosystems, as highlighted by Chakraborty (2009) . Developing countries, such as China and India collectively contribute a significant share of global carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and GHG emissions, mainly due to their growing populations and industrialization ( Ahmed et al., 2022 ; Pathak, 2023 ). Between 1970 and 2021, India experienced a total of 573 disasters related to extreme weather, climate, and water events, resulting in the loss of 138,377 lives, as reported by the Indian Meteorological Department ( IMD Annual Report, 2021 ). India has experienced the highest temperatures and the most prolonged dry spells ever recorded in recent years ( Panda et al., 2017 ) and is now listed in the UN's Global Drought Vulnerability Index with consecutive drought episodes occurring in the major rice-producing states such as UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, and West Bengal ( Amrit et al., 2021 ). Simultaneously, frequent episodes of intense, short-lived downpours resulting in flooding incidents, such as the deluge in Uttarakhand in the year 2013, Kashmir in the year 2014, Kerala in 2018 etc. have been reported ( Akram et al., 2023 ). Recently, India has become the most populous nation globally boasting a population of 1.4 billion people, equating to 17.7% of the global population ( Salunke, 2022 ) which would lead to an increasing carbon footprint. According to a study by Chaturvedi et al. (2012) , the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble mean climate results for India in the business-as-usual (RCP6.0–RCP8.5) scenario , the mean warming was predicted to be between 1.7–2°C by 2030 and 3.3–4.8°C by 2080 in comparison to pre-industrial times. Whereas, under the business-as-usual scenario , all-India precipitation is predicted to increase from 4% to 5% by 2030 and from 6%−14% toward the end of the century (2080s).

Due to rapid economic and developmental growth, India is experiencing sector-specific CO 2 emissions from four major sectors Electricity (35.05%), Agriculture (23.18%), Construction/Manufacture (15.92%), and Transport (8.64%) ( Tiseo, 2023a ). While per capita CO 2 emissions in India were relatively low at 1.82 metric tons and significantly below the global average of 4.55 metric tons ( World Bank, 2021 ), the country ranked as the fourth-largest emitter in 2017 due to its substantial population and economic size ( UNEP, 2019 ). Per capita CO 2 emissions in India have shown an increasing trend, rising from 0.39 metric tons in 1970 to a peak of 1.91 metric tons in 2022 ( Tiseo, 2023b ). Furthermore, carbon dioxide emissions stemming from the use of fossil fuels and industrial activities in India surged by 6.5% in 2022, setting a new record at 2.7 billion metric tons (GtCO 2 ) ( Tiseo, 2023c ). In terms of annual anthropogenic emissions, India is estimated to release 47,000 million metric tons of CO 2 , 570 million metric tons of CCl 4 , and 9 million metric tons of N 2 O ( Basha and Reddy, 2022 ). Emissions of a few pollutants in India were estimated to be 2.144 tons/capita of GHG emissions, 69.4 kg/capita of CO emission, 20.36 kg/capita of NOx emission, and 9.51 kg/capita of SOx emission ( OECD, 2023 ). Additionally, climate change-led disasters like forest fires add more concentration to the pollutants. Each year, the world sees ~4.3–5.5 GtCO 2 e/year emissions caused by changes in land use and land cover ( Sannigrahi et al., 2020 ). Between 2003 and 2017, a significant number of 520,861 forest fires were identified across the diverse forest landscapes of India ( Sannigrahi et al., 2020 ). For instance, the Uttarakhand Forest fire caused an increase of 52% in CO, 52% in NOx, and 11% in O 3 during the High Fire Activity Period (HFAP).

2.1 Temperature and rainfall anomaly

The mean temperature across India in 2021 averaged 21.43°C, ranking as the third-highest on record since 1901, following the years 2016 (21.8°C) and 2009 (21.59°C) ( IMD Annual Report, 2021 ). In Figures 2A , B , we can observe the deviations from the average seasonal maximum and minimum temperatures. Figure 3 highlighted the time series of average mean temperature for the post monsoon season, over India for a period from 1971–2021. Over most regions of the country, the maximum temperature exceeded the normal values, with exceptions in certain areas of northwest India, eastern and northeastern India, central India and southern peninsular India. Particularly in some areas, such as Assam and Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Himachal Pradesh and Saurashtra and Kutch, experienced maximum temperature anomalies exceeding 2°C. Similarly, when looking at the minimum temperatures, they were generally higher than the typical values for most parts of the country, except for specific regions in northwest India, central India, southern peninsular India, and Lakshadweep. Notably, some areas, including northern Saurashtra and Kutch, central Maharashtra, Bihar, North Interior Karnataka, and southern Kerala and Mahe, witnessed minimum temperature anomalies surpassing 2°C. Conversely, certain areas like Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh, East Rajasthan, southern Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and South Interior Karnataka experienced minimum temperature anomalies lower than −1°C ( IMD Annual Report, 2021 ). There has been visible evidence of altered precipitation patterns over the country. In some regions of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Kerala, Mahe, and Lakshadweep, the rainfall anomaly exceeded 100 mm. Conversely, there were areas in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, and the western parts of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh where the negative rainfall anomaly was greater than 50 mm. Furthermore, in parts of Arunachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir, the negative rainfall anomaly exceeded 75 mm ( Figures 4 , 5 ).

Figure 2 . Mean seasonal temperature anomalies (°C) (A) maximum (B) minimum (source: IMD Annual Report, 2021 ).

Figure 3 . Time series of mean temperature averaged over India (vertical bars) and 5 year running mean (continuous line) for the post monsoon season (1971–2021) (source: IMD Annual Report, 2021 ).

Figure 4 . Spatial pattern of (A) seasonal rainfall winter (January–February) (B) seasonal rainfall anomaly (mm) (source: IMD Annual Report, 2021 ).

Figure 5 . Seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951–2021 (source: IMD Annual Report, 2021 ).

2.2 Climate change transitions and projections against climate variables in India

Figure 6 shows India's transitions in relation to climate change. It mentioned the different initiatives related to the summits, agreements, rectifications, national action plans, and launch and amendments of any acts relevant to climate change and mitigation.

Figure 6 . Schematic diagram of timeline for India's transition in climate change.

The repercussions of climate change, encompassing escalating temperatures, acidification of oceans, and rising sea levels, have yielded adverse consequences for both essential services and the livelihoods of those reliant upon them. Since the 20th century, Asia has witnessed a consistent rise in surface air temperatures, resulting in significant concerns for social and economic stability ( Ren et al., 2023 ). This triggers an increased likelihood of heat waves, alterations of the monsoon patterns, frequent flood occurrences in regions experiencing monsoons, and the melting of glaciers in the Hindu Kush Himalaya area ( United Nations Environment Programme, 2009 ).

India, as a developing nation, contributes to around 3.2% of the total global Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It's worth noting that India is home to nearly 17.7% of the world's population and is responsible for ~6.8% of the world's carbon emissions, placing it fifth in terms of geopolitical risk rankings ( Adebayo et al., 2023 ). Significantly, a 10% increase in Economic Policy Uncertainty in India could have adverse effects on the economy, potentially hindering the green economy by reducing it by 0.535% ( Liang and Qamruzzaman, 2022 ). The danger of irreversible loss extends to vital marine and coastal ecosystems, including coral reefs, tidal marshes, seagrass meadows, and plankton communities ( UN, 2022 ). Meanwhile, mangroves in India remain under continuous threat from pollution, conversion for aquaculture and agriculture, as well as challenges related to climate such as sea level rise and coastal erosion ( Akram et al., 2023 ). These risks also drastically intensify, for example, global warming exceeds a 2°C rise in temperature and calls for fluctuations in the climate system. In India, the hotter summer climate has led to a surge in demand for cooling, compounding the situation due to rapid population growth ( Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018 ). These climatic factors have introduced water stress affecting both water supply and demand. Scarce precipitation further impacts water supply demands, prompting the increased use of energy-intensive techniques like desalination and underground water pumping ( IPCC, 2023 ).

Transboundary river basins like the Indus and Ganges in the mid-21st century are predicted to face severe water scarcity. India, in particular, faces an elevated risk of experiencing increased drought conditions ranging from 5% to 20% by the close of this century ( IPCC, 2023 ). Additionally, the security of local and downstream communities is threatened by Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). Moreover, the persistence of rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and climate extremes such as heat waves, droughts, and typhoons will maintain their role as pivotal vulnerability factors, significantly shaping agricultural productivity in Asia ( IPCC, 2023 ). Projections for the agricultural and food industry include notable declines in fisheries, aquaculture, and agriculture yield, specifically in South Asia. In India, rice production may decline by 10%−30% and maize production by 25%−70%, considering a temperature increase in the range of 1°C−4°C. In this context, Krishnan et al. (2020) published a report by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Government of India where past and projected changes in the country due to climate change have been discussed in detail ( Table 1 ).

Table 1 . Table listing projected changes against different climate variables in India (adapted from Krishnan et al., 2020 ).

3 Climate change impacts

3.1 impact on forest.

Climate change exerts an impact on various natural disruptions that jeopardize the wellbeing of forests. These encompass insect infestations, the intrusion of non-native species, wildfires, and severe storms. Certain disturbances, such as wildfires, occur abruptly. The consequences of climate change on forests carry significant implications for those individuals whose livelihoods rely on forest resources. India, being a mega-biodiversity nation, dedicates over one-fifth of its land to forests. In a country with almost 173,000 villages designated as forest villages, there is a substantial reliance of communities on these forest resources ( Gopalakrishnan et al., 2011 ). The effects of climate change on India's vegetation are region-specific. For instance, the Himalayan region is particularly vulnerable to the loss of alpine meadows and the upward shift of tree-line due to rising temperatures ( Manish et al., 2016 ). The coastal mangrove forests of India also face detrimental effects, including increased saltwater intrusion and decreased productivity, due to the effects of climate change ( Semba et al., 2022 ).

Climate plays a pivotal role in shaping vegetation patterns on a global scale and exerts a substantial impact on the arrangement, composition, and ecological dynamics of forests ( Kirschbaum et al., 1996 ). The 2022 IUFRO hybrid meeting held in Vienna, Austria was themed “Forests in a Volatile World—Global Collaboration to Sustain Forests and Their Societal Benefits”. The annual report evaluates the world's progress in minimizing emissions from deforestation and deterioration of forested areas. (REDD+) and was prepared by IUFRO's Global Forest Expert Panels (GFEP) Programme (this full line should be deleted). A key takeaway from their report is that although REDD+ has served as a convenient framework for various activities focused on curbing deforestation and forest degradation, the intricate complexities between forests, land use, and climate still remain an issue ( IUFRO Report, 2020 ). In a warmer world, the forests currently play a vital role as carbon sinks and could be entirely eroded. Land ecosystems may transition from being a net carbon dioxide absorber to becoming a significant source of carbon dioxide emissions ( Seppälä et al., 2009 ).

In India, air pollution and climate change have profound effects on vegetation, posing significant challenges to the country's ecosystems and terrestrial productivity. Air pollutants can harm the health of trees, leading to leaf discoloration, reduced growth, and even tree mortality. Climate change-induced factors like rising temperatures and alterations in rainfall distribution, and altered pest and disease dynamics further stress forest ecosystems, potentially leading to forest decline and loss of biodiversity ( Saxena and Sonwani, 2019b ; Saxena and Srivastava, 2020 ; Sonwani and Saxena, 2022 ; Sonwani and Shukla, 2022 ; Sonwani et al., 2022a ).

According to a study by Chaturvedi et al. (2011) , which utilized the Regional Climate Model of the Hadley Center (HadRM3) and the dynamic global vegetation model IBIS, projections were made for climate change scenarios. The study highlights that the upper Himalayas, northern and central areas of the Western Ghats, and certain regions of central India are particularly susceptible to the expected effects of climate change. On the other hand, the assessment suggests that the forests in the northeastern part of India exhibit better capacity to adapt or withstand the projected changes in climate.

One of the notable impacts of climate change on vegetation is the shifting distribution and composition of plant species. As temperatures increase, certain plants may struggle to survive in their existing habitats and gradually migrate to more suitable regions ( Chauhan et al., 2022 ). This phenomenon, known as “shifting vegetation belts”, Has the potential to result in alterations in the functioning of ecosystems, affecting the interactions between plants, animals, and their environment ( Sonwani et al., 2022a ). Another evident impact is the alteration of phenological patterns in plants ( Corlett and Lafrankie, 1998 ; Workie and Debella, 2018 ) such as changes in flowering and fruiting seasons. Climate change-derived shifts in temperature and rainfall patterns can disrupt the synchronicity among plants and their pollinating or seed-dispersing agents, potentially leading to mismatches in these critical ecological relationships. Additionally, the study conducted by Ranjan and Gorai (2022) examined the start-of-season (SOS) and end-of-season (EOS) trends for various vegetation types. During the period of 2001–2010, most vegetation types (excluding winter snow vegetation and mixed forest) exhibited a delay in both SOS and EOS. The delay occurred at a rate ranging from 0.009 to 0.29 days per year for SOS and 0.03 to 0.33 days per year for EOS. Conversely, from 2010 to 2019, the EOS and SOS of all vegetation types (except mixed forest) displayed an advancing trend. The SOS advanced at a rate of 0.06 to 0.24 days per year, while the EOS preponed at a rate of 0.17–0.23 days per year. These findings indicate significant changes in the timing of the period of growth for various types of vegetation. Such alterations can have implications for plant growth, phenology, and ecosystem dynamics ( Shrestha, 2019 ). Furthermore, climate change threatens the overall productivity and health of vegetation in India ( Upgupta et al., 2015 ; Ahmad et al., 2018 ). Increased heat waves and droughts can induce water stress on plants ( Marchin et al., 2022 ), impacting their growth, productivity, and survival. Additionally, rising temperatures generate a conducive environment for the rapid increase of pests and diseases ( Shrestha, 2019 ; Zayan, 2019 ), further endangering the health and resilience of plant populations.

The study by Haughan et al. (2022) on the impact of climate change on Indian forests reveals a significant rise in annual forest loss during the 17-year period from 2001 to 2018, with the Northeast region experiencing the highest proportion of this loss. This increase in forest loss is attributed to changing trends in temperature and precipitation over time. Their study raises concern about climate velocities recorded in the country, reaching 97 km/year. They underscore the importance of comprehending the unique regional and seasonal connections between climatic conditions and forest distribution to effectively conserve the remaining forests as climate change continues to accelerate.

3.2 Impact on agriculture

Agriculture, being a vast sector highly sensitive to weather conditions, is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, resulting in significant economic consequences. Variations in climatic factors like temperature and rainfall have a profound effect on crop yields. The influence of rising temperatures, changes in precipitation, and increased CO 2 levels vary depending on the specific crop, location, and the extent of these alterations ( Malhi et al., 2021 ). Additionally, regions with higher humidity and warmer climates tend to face greater challenges from insect pests and diseases ( Malhi et al., 2021 ). To meet the food and nutritional demands of the global population by 2050, it is imperative to achieve a 60% increase in worldwide agricultural production from 2005/2007 levels, with developing countries aiming for a 77% increase and developed nations targeting a 24% rise ( Alexandratos and Bruinsma, 2012 ). Any loss in crop yields can potentially drive up food prices and have a substantial impact on global agricultural well-being, potentially resulting in a 0.3% annual decrease in global GDP by 2100 ( Stevanovic et al., 2016 ). Recent evidence suggests that approximately 9% of cropland expansion in developing countries over the last two decades can be attributed to dry anomalies, as farmers expand their agricultural areas to compensate for yield losses ( Zaveri et al., 2020 ).

Guntukula (2020) conducted an analysis using annual time-series data spanning 58 years (1961–2017) to examine the impact of climatic variables, specifically rainfall, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature, on the yields of seven major crops in the region viz. rice, wheat, pulses, rapeseeds and mustard, cotton, sugarcane, and groundnut in India. The study observed that rainfall, and maximum and minimum temperatures, have a substantial effect on crop productivity. The specific impact of these variables varied across different crops and regions. A sensitivity analysis using CERES (crop estimation through resources and environmental synthesis) has also shown that wheat and rice yields in northwest India have the potential to increase by 28% and 15%, respectively, at double the levels of CO 2 ; however, the increased thermal stress due to elevated level of temperatures associated with high CO 2 nearly cancels out the positive impact ( Malhi et al., 2021 ).

India has already witnessed adverse impacts from recent climate patterns, which are attributed to emissions on a worldwide scale of both long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs) and other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) particularly, tropospheric ozone and black carbon ( Burney and Ramanathan, 2014 ). These pollutants not only have indirect effects on crop yields through climate changes but also exert direct effects. Burney and Ramanathan (2014) investigated the combined effects of climate change, the direct consequences of short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), and air pollutants on wheat and rice crop yields in India spanning the years from 1980 to 2010. Their statistical model revealed that, on average across the country, wheat yields and rice yields in 2010 were up to 36% and 20% lower respectively, than in a scenario where climate change had not occurred. Remarkably, the upper-bound estimates suggested that 90% of these yield losses can be associated with the direct effects of SLCPs. This finding underscores the potential gains that could be achieved by addressing regional air pollution. By mitigating the direct climate change effects of LLGHGs through concerted efforts to reduce SLCP emissions, we could counter anticipated future yield losses and safeguard agricultural productivity in India.

Gupta et al. (2017) employed regression analysis using information from 208 districts to investigate the influence of temperature and aerosol pollution, on wheat yields in India from 1981 to 2009. Their results showed that an increase of 1°C in the daily average maximum and minimum temperatures corresponds to a decrease in yields by ~2–4% each. They combined the estimated impacts of climate change on productivity along with aerosol pollution. The results revealed that a one-standard-deviation reduction in aerosol optical depth (AOD) is projected to enhance yields by ~4.8%. These findings suggest that by mitigating regional air pollution and addressing global warming in the coming decades, it is possible to counter the losses in wheat yields.

3.3 Impact on human health

The amalgamation of climate change and air pollution has profound and multifaceted implications for human health ( Kumar et al., 2019 ). The intricate interplay between climate change and air quality suggests that future strategies aimed at addressing these interconnected issues will gain advantages from increased coordination ( Kinney, 2018 ). Young children, senior citizens, and pregnant women are particularly susceptible to the health risks associated with air pollution, as their respiratory and cardiovascular systems are more fragile and prone to damage ( WHO, 2016 , 2021 ; Sonwani et al., 2021a , b , c ). Young children are particularly susceptible because they have faster breathing rates in comparison to adults ( Sharma and Kumar, 2018 , 2020 ), the breathing rate of children per unit of body weight is nearly double compared to that of adults ( Harrison and Yin, 2000 ; Ginsberg et al., 2005 ; Heal et al., 2012 ) and their organ systems are in a phase of rapid growth and development. These effects have been discussed in detail in previous studies by Sharma and Kumar (2018 , 2020) .

People inhabiting in urban ecosystems are fragile to health impacts owing to high temperature and extreme pollution levels. Research has consistently shown that city temperatures tend to be higher than those in open rural areas, giving rise to the phenomenon known as the urban heat island (UHI) ( Choudhury et al., 2023 ). In recent decades, many major global cities have undergone significant changes in land use and land cover, with far-reaching effects on their urban ecosystems. These changes have resulted in issues such as increased air pollution, traffic congestion, land degradation, and the emergence of urban heat islands (UHIs) ( Yan et al., 2016 ; Liu et al., 2020 ). The connection between urban heat islands and climate change is a consequence of urbanization, industrialization and other human-induced factors. In developing countries such as India, where air quality deteriorates below acceptable levels ( WHO, 2021 ), citizens from poor socioeconomic backgrounds are disproportionately affected due to health risks from air pollution ( Kumar et al., 2015 ). The urban communities of our country are also subjected to extreme pollution levels and climate change impacts due to the UHI effect. According to a study conducted in Delhi ( Singh et al., 2022 ) in the year 2000, the minimum temperature in Delhi was 23.2°C, and the maximum was 34.85°C. By 2010, these temperatures had increased to 26.31°C and 39.92°C, and in 2020, they further rose to 31.7°C and 44.74°C. This significant temperature rise over the years illustrates the UHI effect. Moreover, the normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) has revealed a notable reduction in non-vegetated areas, decreasing from 82% to 62% due to rapid urbanization and changes in land use and land cover over the past two decades. These biophysical changes in the city's landscape clearly indicate that NDVI and land use/land cover modifications are the primary drivers behind the development of urban heat islands within the city. This worsens existing health inequalities and highlights the pressing demand for focused interventions to safeguard such vulnerable populations ( Mathiarasan and Hüls, 2021 ). One crucial finding from epidemiological research is that babies transported in prams are highly vulnerable to air pollution. They breathe at lower heights, typically within 1 meter from the ground level and in close proximity to vehicle tailpipes emitting harmful pollutants ( Sharma and Kumar, 2018 , 2020 ) raises concerns about their long-term health and emphasizes the urgency of addressing air quality in urban environments.

To mitigate air pollution exposures, dedicated efforts are needed to quantify the obstacles and opportunities to effectively utilize scientific knowledge for managing air quality while accounting the diverse stakeholder's perspective ( Muñoz-Pizza et al., 2022 ). Many of the researchers identified different COVID-19 lockdown phases as a proxy solution for air pollution mitigation, that may be implemented in future for such air pollution and climate benefits ( Venter et al., 2020 ; Goel et al., 2021 ). For the effective implementation of such strategies requires effective atmospheric monitoring, emissions inventories, and compilation of health-related datasets particularly for developing countries. Further, to derive the necessary shift from an expert-based to a dialogue-based process will need dedicated attempts from multiple stakeholders including scientists, public policy makers, governors, and the citizens ( Green et al., 2000 ). Deploying green infrastructure, promoting sustainable transport fuels with low life-cycle sustainability impacts, and improving public transportation can significantly reduce air pollution levels and improve air quality ( Sharma, 2016 ; Abhijith et al., 2017 ; Abhijith and Kumar, 2019 ; Kumar et al., 2019 ). Moreover, community engagement to sensitize local citizens and policies targeted at reducing individual exposure to air pollution may play a pivotal role in safeguarding health ( Kumar et al., 2015 ).

Tackling the health effects of climate change requires a universal perspective. A large share of responsibility of minimizing climate change lies with developed countries because they have historically emitted greenhouse gases. Still, its consequences are often felt most severely by poor people in developing countries ( Kumar et al., 2015 ; Perera, 2018 ). As a result of this environmental injustice, it demonstrates the moral imperative for collective action to mitigate climate change, promote sustainable practices, and ensure that the burden of climate change does not fall disproportionately on the most vulnerable populations ( Perera, 2017 , 2018 ). In a nutshell, there should be a greater focus on environmental justice and equitable global responsibility to minimize air pollution exposure and address climate change impacts.

4 Climate change related extreme events in India

The threat of air pollution in India has risen, with its impact exacerbated by the influence of climate change. Under this section we list few among many extreme events reported in India that was triggered by climate change.

In December, 2015, Chennai experienced extreme one-day rainfall causing widespread flooding. The likely cause to be detected was aerosols counteracting with greenhouse gases ( van Oldenborgh et al., 2016 ). Anthropogenic warming was also blamed for warm mean surface temperatures observed in 2015 according to CMIP5 simulations ( Kam et al., 2016 ; Nanditha et al., 2020 ). Climate change was attributed as the cause for the total rainfall in northern India during June 2013 ( Singh et al., 2014 ). Indian states situated in the flood-prone area of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin, encounters a series of unfavorable climate occurrences notably, annual floods. A study focused on the flood catastrophe that took place in the Ganga-Brahmaputra basin in 2020, impacting the regions of Bihar, West Bengal, and Assam during July, August, and September. They derived the flood extent using Google Earth Engine (GEE) and data from Sentinel-1A Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR). The combined extent of floodwater inundation between July and September was calculated to be highest in Bihar (20,837 km 2 ) followed by West Bengal (17,307.1 km 2 ), and Assam (13,460.1 km 2 ) ( Pandey et al., 2022 ). This event was attributed to global warming, sea level rise and climate change catalyzed glacier melting ( Barman and Bhattacharjya, 2015 ; Janes et al., 2019 ; Loukas et al., 2021 ).

As a consequence of climate change induced warming, it was predicted that a 10–12% increase in precipitation and a sea level rise of approximately 50 cm could result in the submergence of numerous coastal cities in India, including Mumbai, Chennai, Goa, Kochi, Puducherry, Daman and Diu. This, in turn, would place an estimated 35–50 million Indians at risk of chronic flooding, potentially leading to loss of life (National Maritime Foundation, NMF).

4.2 Storms and cyclone

As a results of climate impact, several coastal cities experienced the high incidences of cyclonic events. Repeatedly, storms and cyclones have wrought havoc upon numerous villages in the coastal state of Odisha, which is frequently susceptible to tropical cyclones. Consequently, residents have been compelled to seek new habitation. A noticeable surge in the frequency of storms, and cyclones has been documented over the past few decades when compared to historical records ( Subramanian et al., 2023 ). Sand and dust storms become very common in the North and West Indian region and have a variety of adverse impact on the environment. The principal consequences of these incidents encompass alterations in the atmospheric radiation balance, changes in regional precipitation patterns, and fluctuations in hurricane activity. Furthermore, dust storm events contribute to heightened concentrations of fine particulate matter in the atmosphere, which have been linked to adverse health effects such as premature mortality, cardiovascular issues, respiratory problems, lung cancer, and severe respiratory tract infections ( Maji and Sonwani, 2022 ).

4.3 Forest fire

Globally it is recognized that ~80% of forest fires are anthropogenic in nature ( FAO, 2007 ). In India, ~50% of the forest areas are classified as fire prone and > 95% of forest fires are of anthropogenic origin ( Satendra and Kaushik, 2014 ). The occurrence, frequency, and intensity of forest fires is directly linked to changing climate conditions such as warmer temperature, precipitation deficits, increased number of dry days, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events [ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 2021 ] that can lead to an increase in fire incidences ( Nurdiati et al., 2022 ). It has also been recently investigated that, due to changing climate increasing the forest fire intensity, incidences and frequency increased by several fold in central Indian region, such increase was observed not only in the fire prone season, but also in the rest of the year ( Jain et al., 2021 ).

4.4 Drought

Climate change also cause variability in precipitation, soil moisture, and surface water, as well as excessive groundwater extraction, resulting in draft conditions ( Mukherjee et al., 2018 ). According to Roy et al. (2022) , study in which the Drought Early Warning System (DEWS), a system that monitors drought conditions in real-time was used, estimated approximately 21.06% of India's landmass that experienced conditions similar to a drought. This represents a significant increase of 62% compared to the drought-affected area from the same period in the previous year, which was only 7.86%.

4.5 Heat waves and cold waves

Another study focusing on the projected heat waves in South Indian cities using CMIP predicted severe heat waves in the region ( Nandi and Swain, 2022 ). Moreover, other research highlights extreme heat events (EHE) in Ahmedabad, it experienced severe heat waves in 2010 and 2016, recorded temperatures of 50°C (122°F) ( Patel et al., 2022 ). As far as cold waves in India concerned, the north, north-west, central, east India, north-east Peninsula, Jammu and Kashmir falls in the Core Cold Wave Zone (CCZ). The El-Niño event in India hampers the CW activities. Significant increasing trends in the heat waves days and noticeable reductions in the frequency of cold wave days, aligning with similar trends was observed in numerous regions worldwide ( Pai and Nair, 2022 ).

5 India's urban transformation and climate change

Urban systems play a crucial role in achieving significant reductions in emissions and promoting the establishment of communities with the capacity to withstand and adapt to the effects of climate change. Cities need to consider various factors for both adaptation and mitigation, such as assessing climate addressing impacts and vulnerabilities by means of climate-related services in the planning and design of infrastructure and settlements. Strategies like compact urban planning, integrating jobs and housing, promoting public transportation and active modes of mobility like walking and cycling, as well as efficient construction, retrofitting, and energy-efficient use of buildings, contribute to these goals ( Chen et al., 2008 ; Barton and Tsourou, 2013 ; Amado et al., 2016 ; Bibri et al., 2020 ; Verma et al., 2021 ).

Initially, concerns about climate change impacts in modern India primarily revolved around vulnerabilities to the many climate-related risks. This has led to initial efforts focusing on adaptation measures. The urban transformation in India is influenced by different aspects including population growth, changes in land use, and industrialization, that are multiplied by the impacts of climate change ( Lele et al., 2018 ; Sonwani et al., 2021a , b , c ). The diversity in climate risks across different urban areas in India is a reflection of local geographical and climatic conditions ( Khosla and Bhardwaj, 2019 ). Hence, adaptation strategies need to be tailored to specific local contexts. Furthermore, environmental challenges like air pollution, dwindling green spaces, and water scarcity intersect with the effects of climate change ( Ranjan and Narain, 2012 ; Dholakia and Garg, 2018 ; Gurjar et al., 2018 ).

India's role in these discussions is pivotal, given its projected substantial urban growth in the decades to come ( United Nations Environment Programme, 2021 ). However, many Indian cities are still struggling with foundational issues like physical development, poverty, and environmental degradation. Integrating climate change considerations alongside these basic challenges poses a significant hurdle ( Ürge-Vorsatz et al., 2018 ). The way these cities are constructed and expanded will shape consumption patterns, production practices, and subjected to climate-related risks over decades to come. Many cities lack adequate services, with inconsistent and inadequate access to essentials like water, sanitation, and drainage. A considerable proportion of urban dwellers live in inadequate living conditions, often termed “slums”. The local environment's health, air, water quality and solid waste management, is severely compromised and ranks among the poorest at global level ( Karak et al., 2012 ; Nixon et al., 2013 ; Singh et al., 2013 ). There are some India's strategies for dealing with multifaceted challenges like urbanization and climate change in terms of accessibility, inclusivity, and livelihoods and this emphasizes the urgency of decisions that can establish sustainable, low-carbon, and resilient modern societies ( Creutzig et al., 2016 ; Ürge-Vorsatz et al., 2018 ).

The future path that urban India takes in responding to climate change depends on how effectively regional development and climate objectives are interconnected, combined, and given priority. The way urban areas are built over the next 10 years will significantly influence the consumption habits of the majority of Indians for the rest of the century. Implementing a well-coordinated urban climate strategy that spans different levels of government, taking into account the expansive nature urban layouts of India, and seizing the opportunity to establish sustainable infrastructures with reduced consumption, could play a pivotal role in shaping India's development trajectory. In recent years, urban areas have undergone significant societal and technological transformations that include a noticeable shift toward adopting low-carbon lifestyles ( Roy et al., 2018 ). This shift was made possible by national-level policies and programs influenced by increasing research on modern day climate change. These policies encourage cities to embrace environmentally friendly practices. For example, initiatives like the National Mission on Sustainable Habitat, Smart Cities Mission, Solar City Program, and Green Urban Transport Mission together promote the implementation of rooftop solar panels, energy-efficient practices, public transportation, pedestrian pathways, separate lane for bikes, and building energy standards ( Rajasekar et al., 2018 ; Taraporevala, 2018 ). Concurrently, efforts to enhance drain infrastructure under the Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation are focused on improving urban climate resilience ( Tewar et al., 2015 ). These localized and sector-specific measures for adaptation and mitigation, along with the associated literature, indicate an increasing recognition and a movement toward climate-focused strategies in urban India.

The initial steps taken for adaptation in urban India were led by two global networks: the Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network (ACCCRN) and ICLEI—Local Governments for Sustainability ( Fisher, 2014 ; Khosla and Bhardwaj, 2019 ). The strategies employed for enhancing adaptation and resilience varied based on geographical locations, influenced by local vulnerabilities, risks, and existing infrastructure shortcomings ( International Council of Local Environmental Initiatives-South Asia, 2014 ; UNDP, 2014 ; Yenneti et al., 2016 ; Dhyani et al., 2022 ).

Singh et al. (2021) , studied the climate change approach adopted in some major Indian cities. Out of the 53 cities analyzed, each having a population exceeding 1 million, 38 cities have documented their efforts in either devising or executing strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change. Additionally, 27 of these cities have outlined plans and, in some cases, already initiated actions geared toward adapting to climate challenges. The range of mitigation measures undertaken is extensive, spanning from the establishment of solar city initiatives in places like Chandigarh and Srinagar, to the development of blueprints for low carbon societies, as seen in Bhopal. Furthermore, more modest interventions have been integrated into smart city projects, encompassing elements like biogas installations and structures powered by solar energy. Among the subset of 27 cities prioritizing adaptation, a diverse array of approaches has been adopted. Some cities have placed an emphasis on systemic enhancements, manifesting in actions rooted in ecosystem preservation, such as the formulation of coastal zone management plans to oversee developmental activities along coastal regions, observed in cities like Mumbai and Chennai. Others have embraced wider nature-based solutions, such as the “Cities4forests” initiative in Kochi, which aims to safeguard, oversee, rehabilitate, and foster green spaces. Moreover, a distinct focus on managing risks is evident in certain cities, with initiatives including action plans to counter the effects of extreme heat, notable examples being Ahmedabad, Hyderabad, and Nagpur. Additionally, the widespread integration of cool roof technologies, notably in Ahmedabad, Indore, and Surat, forms another facet of this risk-focused approach.

6 Vulnerable communities

Climate change is expected to worsen existing disparities related to social factors like caste and gender ( Saini et al., 2015 ), as well as economic aspects like class and geographic location ( Ranjan and Narain, 2012 ). To call out on specific communities, climate change will particularly impact marginalized groups like the urban poor individuals, the elderly, children, and communities whose livelihoods are influenced by climatic patterns, like fisherfolk ( Tran et al., 2013 ; Yenneti et al., 2016 ; Lundgren-Kownacki et al., 2018 ; Pandey and Kumar, 2018 ; Wilk et al., 2018 ). It is likely for India to experience more pronounced impacts of climate change, including disruptions to businesses, damage to infrastructure and homes, complications in mobility, and concerns for public health ( World Bank, 2014 ). Among the most vulnerable are the urban poor, who experience insufficient access to essential resources and services. that could mitigate these risks. About 3.3 to 3.6 billion people reside in environments highly susceptible to climate change impacts. Vulnerability is closely intertwined between humans and ecosystems, with regions facing development constraints being particularly vulnerable to climatic hazards. From 2010 to 2020, regions characterized by high vulnerability saw a 15-fold increase in human fatalities resulting from floods, droughts, and storms when compared to areas with extremely low vulnerability ( IPCC Report, 2022 ).

Resilience refers to the ability of economic, social, and environmental frameworks to withstand hazardous events, disturbances, or trends while maintaining their essential identity, function, and structure. Resilience also includes the capacity to evolve, learn, and adapt ( IPCC, 2014 ). From a vulnerability perspective, incorporating community resources, risk can be defined as: Risk = (Hazard x Vulnerability)/Capacity. In this context, “capacity” refers to the amalgamation of assets and capabilities existing within a community, society, or organization that can reduce the levels of risk or mitigate the consequences of a disaster ( Das et al., 2009 ). Numerous indices evaluate the vulnerability of various communities based on their socio-economic attributes. Indices like the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI), LVI IPCC models, and Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) are employed to assess climate change vulnerability in different livelihoods within urban communities, as seen in Guwahati city, Assam, India ( Paul et al., 2019 ). Comparative analysis of these vulnerabilities indicated that farmers were the most vulnerable due to their increased sensitivity to health issues and financial setbacks amplified by a restricted ability to adapt. Conversely, doctors exhibited the least vulnerability due to their higher awareness levels and better adaptive capabilities. In addition to that, lowland and floodplain communities face significant vulnerability to climate change-induced extremes. Each year, river floods affect approximately 21 million people worldwide, a figure anticipated to rise to 54 million by 2030 as a result of the combined impacts of climate change and socio-economic expansion ( Luo et al., 2015 ). The Ganga basin, due to its dense population and agricultural dependence, stands out as particularly susceptible to climate change ( Pandey et al., 2022 ). The Brahmaputra basin's climate and geology have induced changes in river channels and led to bank erosion. The immense sediment load deposition in the Ganga-Brahmaputra delta, spanning 1.76 million km 2 , contributes to one of the world's largest fluvial sediment depositions ( Pandey et al., 2022 ). Annual floods deposit about 1,060 Mt of sediment load into the Ganga-Brahmaputra delta and Indian Ocean, constituting a significant alluvial sediment accumulation ( Milliman and Farnsworth, 2013 ). Additionally, inhabitants of the delta regions contend with frequent flooding, sea-level rise, cyclone-induced storm surges, and climate change challenges ( Woodruff et al., 2013 ). Indian states within the flood-prone region of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin experience adverse climate events that elevate vulnerability. Increasing temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and intensifying extreme weather events have collectively heightened the landscape risk ( Kishore et al., 2022 ). More frequent and severe floods, driven by intense rainfall and prolonged monsoons, disrupt daily lives, harm infrastructure, and lead to loss of lives. These floods also pose significant challenges to agriculture and food security, as submerged crops result in failed harvests and livelihood losses.

7 Global climate change—Methodologies

Researchers around the globe utilize a variety of climate prediction models based on their climate change variable and subject. Bochenek and Ustrnul (2022) found that artificial neural networks (ANN) and deep learning (DL) were the most dominant algorithms in their analysis, with decision tree methods such as random forests (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and support vector machines (SVM) also being frequently used. These methods appear to be applicable to both Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and climate analysis. Their study also reported that majority of climate change studies are conducted in China, the USA, Australia, India, and Germany.

A 2D Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) has been suggested as a tool for approximating regional precipitation and discharge extremes based on synoptic-scale predictions from general circulation models (GCM) ( Knighton et al., 2019 ). This approach not only allows for the identification of the most reliable fields in estimating extreme precipitation but also facilitates the recognition of important regional and seasonal variations. Machine learning techniques can also enhance the prediction of future intensity-duration-frequency curves, crucial for extreme precipitation and flooding events ( Hu and Ayyub, 2019 ), or assist in estimating trends and seasonal components of rainfall ( Ghaderpour et al., 2021 ).

Projections of emission and greenhouse gas concentration have been made up to 2300 for each Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and extended to 2500 by Meinshausen et al. (2011) . Similar long-term projections are available up to 2500 for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) in CMIP6 ( Meinshausen et al., 2020 ). However, no comprehensive climate model results beyond 2300 are currently available. Many studies focusing on time horizons beyond 2100 have relied on Earth System models of reduced complexity or intermediate complexity ( Palmer et al., 2020 ). Lyon et al. (2022) derived preliminary climate projections from the HadCM3 atmosphere-ocean coupled climate model and the TRIFFID dynamic land surface model which highlight the necessity of quantifying the effects of climate change beyond 2100. For instance, global mean temperature continues to raise after 2100 under most emission scenarios, except for the low-emission RCP2.6 scenario. Under the moderate-high RCP6.0 emissions scenario, global mean warming reaches 2.2°C above present-day levels by 2100 and further increases to 3.6°C in 2200 and 4.6°C in 2500.

Choudhury et al. (2023) employed a cellular automata-artificial neural network (CA-ANN) model to forecast the potential scenario of urban heat islands (UHIs) in 2032, indicating an anticipated intensification of land surface temperatures, particularly in rapidly urbanizing regions. Das et al. (2022) utilized a process-based dynamic vegetation modeling (MAPSS-CENTURY: MC) approach to project changes in vegetation life forms under projected climate conditions.

8 Climate change mitigations status and strategies for India

Enabling urban transitions that bring about positive outcomes for promoting mitigation, adaptation, human welfare, the provision of ecosystem services, and decreasing vulnerability within low-income communities necessitates comprehensive, enduring planning that incorporates both physical and natural elements as well as social infrastructure. The following mitigation measures are recommended for developing Asian countries:

i Green and blue infrastructure: Natural and blue infrastructure aids in capturing and storing carbon, and when combined with traditional gray infrastructure, it can decrease energy consumption and minimize risks associated with extreme events like heatwaves, flooding, heavy rainfall, and droughts. Furthermore, it provides supplementary advantages by enhancing health, quality of life, and means of living ( UNEP, 2021 ; IPCC, 2023 ).

ii Climate-smart approaches: Approaches such as climate-resilient agriculture, disaster risk reduction that relies on ecosystems, and the investment in urban blue-green infrastructure effectively tackle adaptation, mitigation, and align with the Sustainable Development Goals all at once ( Jha et al., 2013 ; UNDRR, 2021 ). These options open avenues for climate-resilient development pathways across India.

iii Incorporating climate factors: Decision-making processes at all levels of governance must incorporate climate risks, vulnerabilities, and adaptation strategies. This necessitates a deepened comprehension of climate impacts across sectors and time-space scales, along with enhancements to planning strategies and resource allocation ( IPCC, 2023 ).

iv Enhancing forecasting and decision making: Appropriate prediction of extreme events, improved readiness to risk, and prioritization of individual and collective decision-making are imperative for effective climate action ( UNFCCC, 2008 ; IPCC, 2023 ).

v Transforming climate risks into opportunities: Asian nations can transform climate change risks into opportunities by advancing the quality and sustainability of energy. This includes promoting investments in renewable energy sources, safe-gaurding gas reserves, advancement in water conservation techniques, choosing green infrastructure technologies, and fostering collaborations among various stakeholders ( IPCC, 2023 ).

vi Transitioning from fossil fuels: In light of the current global scenario, a shift from fossil fuel-dependent economies to renewable resources and nature-based solutions is crucial for a sustainable future ( UNDRR, 2021 ).

vii Addressing deforestation and REDD+: The ongoing process of deforestation and the deterioration of forests disrupts their crucial contribution to the worldwide carbon cycle. While REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) governance has an important part in mitigating climate change ( Jenkins and Schaap, 2018 ), it requires a holistic approach that navigates through complex institutional landscapes and power dynamics to achieve desired outcomes. However, considering the magnitude of the climate issue and the requisite measures required in other greenhouse gas-emitting sectors, the role of REDD+ has limitations. Implementing REDD+ needs a comprehensive and robust approach ( IPCC, 2023 ).

In conclusion, fostering urban transitions that are beneficial for multiple aspects of sustainability requires holistic planning, integration of various infrastructure types, and a deep understanding of climate impacts and adaptation strategies. The diverse options presented hold promise for addressing climate-related challenges and steering Asian nations toward resilient and sustainable development.

8.1 Nature based solutions as a potential mitigation strategy

The effects of climate change on both nature and people are initially felt within urban settings due to the microcosmic nature of cities and the fact that nearly 50% of world population inhabits urban areas ( Metz et al., 2007 ). The ramifications of climate change on ecosystem functioning and human wellbeing are profound. The escalating frequency of heatwaves, droughts, and flooding further exacerbates socio-economic vulnerabilities. Challenges stemming from urban expansion, such as habitat loss, soil sealing, and increased built-up areas, compound the strain on ecosystem functionality, the delivery of ecosystem services, and human welfare across cities worldwide ( Benedict and McMahon, 2006 ).

Nature-based solutions (NbS) emerge as a promising approach to counter these challenges. NbS capitalize on the inherent benefits of nature to tackle the effects of urbanization and climate change. They encompass interventions that incorporate nature into urban spaces to enhance resilience and wellbeing. One critical avenue of NbS is Urban Green Infrastructure (UGI), which aligns with the principles of NbS. UGI entails the strategic incorporation of green spaces into urban planning across various scales, and it underscores the role of nature in providing a multitude of services to urban populations. This concept stems from urban planning and highlights the pivotal role of green spaces in enhancing ecosystem services. UGI aims to strategically integrate green spaces into urban fabric, recognizing their significance in mitigating adverse climatic effects.

A notable facet of UGI and NbS pertains to the management of urban temperatures. By thoughtfully deploying urban green spaces, cities can significantly alter their microclimates. Urban parks, for instance, have been shown to mitigate temperatures during daytime hours by ~1°C. Notably, larger parks with substantial tree cover exhibit a more pronounced cooling effect ( Bowler et al., 2010 ). Additionally, the nature of surface materials influences the cooling impact. Water bodies, for example, exhibit lower surface temperatures than plantation areas, that are cooler compared to streets and rooftops ( Leuzinger et al., 2010 ). This highlights the potential of water bodies for enhancing cooling effects and suggests concentrating such features in city centers to maximize their impact. Furthermore, the configuration of the urban environment has a critical role to play in the efficacy of temperature regulation efforts. Building structures and layout impact the degree of cooling achieved through green and blue infrastructure. Dense urban areas tend to benefit more from vegetation-based cooling, particularly when considering prevailing wind patterns and times of the day ( Lehmann et al., 2014 ). Individual urban trees also contribute to temperature mitigation by reducing the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. The effectiveness of trees in this regard depends on factors like leaf arrangement and canopy shape. Innovative NbS, including green roofs and green walls, further influence urban energy dynamics and thermal moderation. Green walls, for instance, exhibit potential in reducing wall temperatures and mitigating street canyon temperatures, thereby furthering climate adaptation objectives ( Cameron et al., 2014 ).

The choice and supervision of urban plantation amid evolving climate conditions are pivotal for sustained NbS effectiveness. As climate conditions evolve, plant species must be chosen with adaptability in mind. Optimal tree selection involves considerations of cooling efficiency, maintenance requirements, and additional ecosystem services like habitat creation and aesthetic value ( Rahman et al., 2015 ). Design adjustments are necessary to accommodate changing rainfall patterns and increased water demand during droughts. This becomes specifically essential in high-density areas where space is at a premium. Maintaining healthy vegetation cover is essential for preserving ecosystem function. Green roofs, for instance, lower air temperatures by about 1°C and require consistent upkeep to ensure their efficacy ( Speak, 2013 ). Neglecting maintenance compromises the cooling potential of these systems. The albedo effect, influenced by vegetation cover, impacts surface temperatures and underlines the importance of sustained green cover. Vegetation's role in altering building energy balances is another vital aspect. Simulation models highlight that urban greening can significantly reduce energy consumption and lower building temperatures, presenting an alternative to traditional sun-blocking methods ( Yang et al., 2017 ). In urban hydrology, NbS demonstrate their effectiveness by mitigating local flooding and minimizing economic losses during moderate or frequent storm events. However, it's crucial to recognize that these solutions are not very effective in dealing with extensive and devastating occurrences like river floods and intense cloud bursts ( Fletcher et al., 2015 ).

8.2 Indian cities and nature-based solutions

The Blue-Green Master plan of Delhi is a significant initiative aimed at enhancing the city's sustainability and resilience against climate change. This plan focuses on developing a multifunctional blue-green infrastructure that integrates both water and vegetation elements. By combining these elements, the plan seeks to address environmental challenges such as pollution, water scarcity, and inadequate green spaces. It emphasizes the interdependence of water bodies and land, creating a symbiotic relationship that offers various environmental and social benefits. The plan covers strategies for improving water management, green spaces, transportation, energy efficiency, and more, all integrated into a holistic approach for sustainable urban development ( https://dda.org.in/pdf/july13/Final%20MPD%202041%20-%20e%20Gazette_%20English.pdf .).

Rajkot, a city in Gujarat, has developed a comprehensive Climate Change and Environment Action Plan to combat the impact of rising temperatures and climate change. This plan is a collaborative effort between the Climate Change Department, Government of Gujarat, and the Gujarat Ecological Education and Research Foundation. The plan focuses on reducing energy consumption, water conservation, air quality monitoring, waste management, and greenhouse gas reduction. It aims to create a more sustainable and climate-resilient city through a range of strategies, including renewable energy promotion, water conservation, waste reduction, and improved air quality monitoring ( http://www.vasudha-foundation.org/wp-content/uploads/Full-Action-Plan-Rajkot.pdf .). In the case of Bangalore, often referred to as 'Greater Bangalore,' the exponential growth of industries and infrastructure has led to the depletion of green spaces and water bodies, contributing to elevated pollution levels and soaring temperatures. The implementation of NbS have the potential to impart a crucial role in alleviating these challenges. By prioritizing the expansion and preservation of green infrastructure such as parks, urban forests, and gardens, the city can effectively counteract the urban heat island effect and enhance the overall quality of the air ( Nimish et al., 2022 ). This approach not only minimizes the environmental impact of urban expansion but also contributes to the city's long-term resilience against climate change.

Conversely, Nagpur is confronting distinct issues, including water scarcity, flash floods, and air pollution, exacerbated by the ongoing urban expansion. Here, too, NbS offer a promising path toward environmental equilibrium. Innovative strategies like curbside plantation, vertical gardens on buildings, and green roofs mitigate air pollution as well as aid in minimizing the urban heat island effect and enhancing stormwater management during heavy rainfall ( Dhyani et al., 2021 ). Community engagement remains critical for the success of these solutions, with local participation ensuring their sustainability and effectiveness ( Govindarajulu, 2014 ). Preservation of existing green spaces and the restoration of degraded ecosystems are equally important, as they contribute to enhancing biodiversity, maintaining ecological balance, and fostering a more resilient urban environment.

The adoption of sustainable advancements further strengthens the impact of NbS on climate change mitigation. In Bangalore, leveraging technological advancements in construction practices to create green buildings can significantly lower energy consumption while providing a healthier indoor environment ( Smith, 2015 ). Similarly, in Nagpur, the integration of smart city technologies can optimize the allocation of resources for green infrastructure, enhancing the effectiveness of NbS ( Jain et al., 2021 ). The difficulties created by climate change in Bangalore and Nagpur necessitate tailored nature-based solutions that consider the unique characteristics of each city. By embracing green infrastructure expansion, sustainable construction practices, and community engagement, both cities can address their respective environmental issues while paving the way for a more sustainable and resilient future. These endeavors also serve as valuable lessons for other urban areas grappling with similar challenges.

In summation, NbS offer a compelling pathway toward crafting livable, sustainable cities resilient to climate change impacts. The spectrum of vegetation-driven solutions caters to diverse adaptation needs. Strategic planning, informed by modeling and collaboration, is imperative to harness the full potential of NbS. These solutions mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change and represent a paradigm shift toward harmonious coexistence between urban spaces and the natural world.

8.3 Currents gaps and challenges in climate change mitigation for India

Indian cities face significant challenges in leveraging institutional capacities and incentives to harness systemic benefits, acknowledge climate-related synergies and trade-offs ( Revi, 2008 ; Boyd and Ghosh, 2013 ; de Oliveira et al., 2013 ; Sethi and Mohapatra, 2013 ; Chu, 2015 ; Revi et al., 2016 ). After carefully reviewing several papers and reports the following gaps and challenges in climate-change mitigations have been identified:

• The basic environmental challenges faced due to climate change are temperature, altered rainfall patterns, hailstorms, cold waves, etc. that impact human health, livelihood, agriculture and economy.

• The widespread challenges arising from climate change encompass environmental, economic, socio-economic, socio-environmental, natural capital, agricultural vulnerability, water resources, and health issues ( Gupta et al., 2020 ).

• In India, there's a notable absence of a comprehensive understanding of the interaction between climate concerns and developmental objectives at various levels of policy and governance. Short-term, discrete actions undertaken without an assessment of cumulative impacts often succumb to influences of vested interests.

• There exists a gap in adapting holistic strategy that integrates climate change considerations into urbanization planning at any governmental level. Central government initiatives like the Transit Oriented Development Policy, Green Urban Mobility Scheme, Unified Metropolitan Transport Authorities, and notably the Smart Cities Mission aim to achieve integrated urban governance. Urban climate action in cities is influenced by the involvement of higher government levels, which cities often depend on for central schemes and policy direction.

• India's unique socio-economic conditions, diverse geography, and varying climates pose challenges to implementing a uniform policy across the entire nation ( Srivastava, 2021 ).

• The complexity of addressing social and environmental outcomes within REDD+ implementation, reporting, and accountability hampers progress, despite advancements in technology aiding in quantifying forest and carbon changes. Nonetheless, there's still room for improvement in measuring, reporting, and verifying both carbon and non-carbon outcomes. While various global initiatives aim to combat deforestation and forest degradation, they introduce complexities and opportunities for synergies with REDD+.

• Climate Resilient Development (CRD) faces substantial challenges such as fragmented and reactive governance, insufficient evidence for prioritizing actions and sequencing them, as well as financial deficits.

• Modeled trajectories aligned with Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) pre-COP26, until 2030, with no post-2030, exhibit higher emissions leading to a global warming of 2.8 [2.1–3.4] °C by 2100. Although many nations declare their aspirations to achieve net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) or net zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by the mid-century, there exists a gap in the scope and specificity of pledges differ, with limited existing policies to fulfill them.

• Numerous obstacles are present in precise forecasting, but they can be overcome through the adoption of advanced technologies, including in situ observation, remote sensing, innovative sensor technologies, citizen science, artificial intelligence, and machine learning tools. Enhanced forecasting capabilities, regional partnerships, improved risk awareness, and leveraging technology contribute to overcoming these challenges.

9 Conclusion

In conclusion, the vulnerability of developing nations in the area of climate change has become an undeniable reality, contrasting starkly with the more developed countries. This susceptibility stems from the intricate interplay of fragile ecosystems, precarious economic structures, and widespread poverty within these developing countries, as elucidated by various scholars ( Panda, 2009 ). The transformations in land use resulting from rapid urbanization, altered river courses, shifting cultivation practices, erosion, and desertification, as outlined by experts ( Chakraborty, 2009 ; Sreenivasulu and Bhaskar, 2010 ) profoundly shifts ecosystems. India, being a rapidly developing nation, has witnessed an alarming warming trend over the decades, leading to unprecedented weather extremes and heightened demand for cooling in the sweltering summers due to both climate change and population growth. It's crucial to underscore that marginalized urban communities, including the impoverished, elderly, children, and those dependent on climatic conditions like fisher folk, will be subjected to impacts of climate change. With larger share of global population dwelling in urban areas ( Metz et al., 2007 ), the path that urban India takes in responding to these challenges holds substantial sway over consumption habits and overall sustainability. In this context, the adoption of nature-based solutions (NbS) emerges as a promising strategy, leveraging nature's innate capacities to counterbalance the impacts of urbanization and climate change. By integrating natural elements into urban landscapes, NbS not only bolster resilience but also promote well-being, offering a ray of hope amidst the encroaching climate crisis.

10 Future directions for climate change studies in India

The future work on climate change in India is a pressing and multifaceted challenge that requires a comprehensive approach to address its far-reaching impacts. India is a geographically diverse country, and future climate research should focus on region-specific impacts. Understanding how climate change affects different parts of India, considering variations in temperature, precipitation, and extreme events, is crucial for developing tailored adaptation strategies. Research should delve into the effects of climate change on agriculture, which remains a lifeline for millions. It's essential to develop climate-resilient farming practices, crop varieties, and water management systems to ensure food security in the face of changing climate patterns. With increasing water stress, studies on sustainable water resource management, including efficient irrigation techniques and groundwater replenishment strategies, are essential. Additionally, India's extensive coastline demands research that prioritizes the development of strategies to mitigate the impact of sea-level rise, including building resilient infrastructure and protecting vulnerable coastal communities. Future research should focus on urban planning, infrastructure development, and efficient energy use to enhance the resilience of cities. Leveraging data, technology, and remote sensing can aid in monitoring climate change and predicting its impacts accurately. Lastly, ensuring that climate policies are aligned with India's development goals and are their effective implementation is a crucial aspect of future work.

Author contributions

SH: Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Resources, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing. EH: Formal analysis, Methodology, Writing – original draft. PS: Conceptualization, Investigation, Methodology, Resources, Validation, Visualization, Writing – review & editing. AS: Formal analysis, Investigation, Writing – original draft. PT: Data curation, Investigation, Writing – original draft. SS: Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Investigation, Project administration, Resources, Supervision, Validation, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing.

The author(s) declare that no financial support was received for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

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Keywords: urbanization and development, climate change, human health, sustainable development, India

Citation: Hussain S, Hussain E, Saxena P, Sharma A, Thathola P and Sonwani S (2024) Navigating the impact of climate change in India: a perspective on climate action (SDG13) and sustainable cities and communities (SDG11). Front. Sustain. Cities 5:1308684. doi: 10.3389/frsc.2023.1308684

Received: 06 October 2023; Accepted: 24 November 2023; Published: 11 January 2024.

Reviewed by:

Copyright © 2024 Hussain, Hussain, Saxena, Sharma, Thathola and Sonwani. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) . The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

*Correspondence: Saurabh Sonwani, sonwani.s19@gmail.com ; sonwani@zh.du.ac.in

This article is part of the Research Topic

Towards 2030: A Sustainable Cities Perspective on Achieving Sustainable Development Goal 13 – Climate Action

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A review of the global climate change impacts, adaptation, and sustainable mitigation measures

Kashif abbass.

1 School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210094 People’s Republic of China

Muhammad Zeeshan Qasim

2 Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Chemical Pollution Control and Resources Reuse, School of Environmental and Biological Engineering, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Xiaolingwei 200, Nanjing, 210094 People’s Republic of China

Huaming Song

Muntasir murshed.

3 School of Business and Economics, North South University, Dhaka, 1229 Bangladesh

4 Department of Journalism, Media and Communications, Daffodil International University, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Haider Mahmood

5 Department of Finance, College of Business Administration, Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, 173, Alkharj, 11942 Saudi Arabia

Ijaz Younis

Associated data.

Data sources and relevant links are provided in the paper to access data.

Climate change is a long-lasting change in the weather arrays across tropics to polls. It is a global threat that has embarked on to put stress on various sectors. This study is aimed to conceptually engineer how climate variability is deteriorating the sustainability of diverse sectors worldwide. Specifically, the agricultural sector’s vulnerability is a globally concerning scenario, as sufficient production and food supplies are threatened due to irreversible weather fluctuations. In turn, it is challenging the global feeding patterns, particularly in countries with agriculture as an integral part of their economy and total productivity. Climate change has also put the integrity and survival of many species at stake due to shifts in optimum temperature ranges, thereby accelerating biodiversity loss by progressively changing the ecosystem structures. Climate variations increase the likelihood of particular food and waterborne and vector-borne diseases, and a recent example is a coronavirus pandemic. Climate change also accelerates the enigma of antimicrobial resistance, another threat to human health due to the increasing incidence of resistant pathogenic infections. Besides, the global tourism industry is devastated as climate change impacts unfavorable tourism spots. The methodology investigates hypothetical scenarios of climate variability and attempts to describe the quality of evidence to facilitate readers’ careful, critical engagement. Secondary data is used to identify sustainability issues such as environmental, social, and economic viability. To better understand the problem, gathered the information in this report from various media outlets, research agencies, policy papers, newspapers, and other sources. This review is a sectorial assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation approaches worldwide in the aforementioned sectors and the associated economic costs. According to the findings, government involvement is necessary for the country’s long-term development through strict accountability of resources and regulations implemented in the past to generate cutting-edge climate policy. Therefore, mitigating the impacts of climate change must be of the utmost importance, and hence, this global threat requires global commitment to address its dreadful implications to ensure global sustenance.

Introduction

Worldwide observed and anticipated climatic changes for the twenty-first century and global warming are significant global changes that have been encountered during the past 65 years. Climate change (CC) is an inter-governmental complex challenge globally with its influence over various components of the ecological, environmental, socio-political, and socio-economic disciplines (Adger et al.  2005 ; Leal Filho et al.  2021 ; Feliciano et al.  2022 ). Climate change involves heightened temperatures across numerous worlds (Battisti and Naylor  2009 ; Schuurmans  2021 ; Weisheimer and Palmer  2005 ; Yadav et al.  2015 ). With the onset of the industrial revolution, the problem of earth climate was amplified manifold (Leppänen et al.  2014 ). It is reported that the immediate attention and due steps might increase the probability of overcoming its devastating impacts. It is not plausible to interpret the exact consequences of climate change (CC) on a sectoral basis (Izaguirre et al.  2021 ; Jurgilevich et al.  2017 ), which is evident by the emerging level of recognition plus the inclusion of climatic uncertainties at both local and national level of policymaking (Ayers et al.  2014 ).

Climate change is characterized based on the comprehensive long-haul temperature and precipitation trends and other components such as pressure and humidity level in the surrounding environment. Besides, the irregular weather patterns, retreating of global ice sheets, and the corresponding elevated sea level rise are among the most renowned international and domestic effects of climate change (Lipczynska-Kochany  2018 ; Michel et al.  2021 ; Murshed and Dao 2020 ). Before the industrial revolution, natural sources, including volcanoes, forest fires, and seismic activities, were regarded as the distinct sources of greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, and H 2 O into the atmosphere (Murshed et al. 2020 ; Hussain et al.  2020 ; Sovacool et al.  2021 ; Usman and Balsalobre-Lorente 2022 ; Murshed 2022 ). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) struck a major agreement to tackle climate change and accelerate and intensify the actions and investments required for a sustainable low-carbon future at Conference of the Parties (COP-21) in Paris on December 12, 2015. The Paris Agreement expands on the Convention by bringing all nations together for the first time in a single cause to undertake ambitious measures to prevent climate change and adapt to its impacts, with increased funding to assist developing countries in doing so. As so, it marks a turning point in the global climate fight. The core goal of the Paris Agreement is to improve the global response to the threat of climate change by keeping the global temperature rise this century well below 2 °C over pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5° C (Sharma et al. 2020 ; Sharif et al. 2020 ; Chien et al. 2021 .

Furthermore, the agreement aspires to strengthen nations’ ability to deal with the effects of climate change and align financing flows with low GHG emissions and climate-resilient paths (Shahbaz et al. 2019 ; Anwar et al. 2021 ; Usman et al. 2022a ). To achieve these lofty goals, adequate financial resources must be mobilized and provided, as well as a new technology framework and expanded capacity building, allowing developing countries and the most vulnerable countries to act under their respective national objectives. The agreement also establishes a more transparent action and support mechanism. All Parties are required by the Paris Agreement to do their best through “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs) and to strengthen these efforts in the coming years (Balsalobre-Lorente et al. 2020 ). It includes obligations that all Parties regularly report on their emissions and implementation activities. A global stock-take will be conducted every five years to review collective progress toward the agreement’s goal and inform the Parties’ future individual actions. The Paris Agreement became available for signature on April 22, 2016, Earth Day, at the United Nations Headquarters in New York. On November 4, 2016, it went into effect 30 days after the so-called double threshold was met (ratification by 55 nations accounting for at least 55% of world emissions). More countries have ratified and continue to ratify the agreement since then, bringing 125 Parties in early 2017. To fully operationalize the Paris Agreement, a work program was initiated in Paris to define mechanisms, processes, and recommendations on a wide range of concerns (Murshed et al. 2021 ). Since 2016, Parties have collaborated in subsidiary bodies (APA, SBSTA, and SBI) and numerous formed entities. The Conference of the Parties functioning as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA) convened for the first time in November 2016 in Marrakesh in conjunction with COP22 and made its first two resolutions. The work plan is scheduled to be finished by 2018. Some mitigation and adaptation strategies to reduce the emission in the prospective of Paris agreement are following firstly, a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, secondly, to aim to limit the rise to 1.5 °C, since this would significantly reduce risks and the impacts of climate change, thirdly, on the need for global emissions to peak as soon as possible, recognizing that this will take longer for developing countries, lastly, to undertake rapid reductions after that under the best available science, to achieve a balance between emissions and removals in the second half of the century. On the other side, some adaptation strategies are; strengthening societies’ ability to deal with the effects of climate change and to continue & expand international assistance for developing nations’ adaptation.

However, anthropogenic activities are currently regarded as most accountable for CC (Murshed et al. 2022 ). Apart from the industrial revolution, other anthropogenic activities include excessive agricultural operations, which further involve the high use of fuel-based mechanization, burning of agricultural residues, burning fossil fuels, deforestation, national and domestic transportation sectors, etc. (Huang et al.  2016 ). Consequently, these anthropogenic activities lead to climatic catastrophes, damaging local and global infrastructure, human health, and total productivity. Energy consumption has mounted GHGs levels concerning warming temperatures as most of the energy production in developing countries comes from fossil fuels (Balsalobre-Lorente et al. 2022 ; Usman et al. 2022b ; Abbass et al. 2021a ; Ishikawa-Ishiwata and Furuya  2022 ).

This review aims to highlight the effects of climate change in a socio-scientific aspect by analyzing the existing literature on various sectorial pieces of evidence globally that influence the environment. Although this review provides a thorough examination of climate change and its severe affected sectors that pose a grave danger for global agriculture, biodiversity, health, economy, forestry, and tourism, and to purpose some practical prophylactic measures and mitigation strategies to be adapted as sound substitutes to survive from climate change (CC) impacts. The societal implications of irregular weather patterns and other effects of climate changes are discussed in detail. Some numerous sustainable mitigation measures and adaptation practices and techniques at the global level are discussed in this review with an in-depth focus on its economic, social, and environmental aspects. Methods of data collection section are included in the supplementary information.

Review methodology

Related study and its objectives.

Today, we live an ordinary life in the beautiful digital, globalized world where climate change has a decisive role. What happens in one country has a massive influence on geographically far apart countries, which points to the current crisis known as COVID-19 (Sarkar et al.  2021 ). The most dangerous disease like COVID-19 has affected the world’s climate changes and economic conditions (Abbass et al. 2022 ; Pirasteh-Anosheh et al.  2021 ). The purpose of the present study is to review the status of research on the subject, which is based on “Global Climate Change Impacts, adaptation, and sustainable mitigation measures” by systematically reviewing past published and unpublished research work. Furthermore, the current study seeks to comment on research on the same topic and suggest future research on the same topic. Specifically, the present study aims: The first one is, organize publications to make them easy and quick to find. Secondly, to explore issues in this area, propose an outline of research for future work. The third aim of the study is to synthesize the previous literature on climate change, various sectors, and their mitigation measurement. Lastly , classify the articles according to the different methods and procedures that have been adopted.

Review methodology for reviewers

This review-based article followed systematic literature review techniques that have proved the literature review as a rigorous framework (Benita  2021 ; Tranfield et al.  2003 ). Moreover, we illustrate in Fig.  1 the search method that we have started for this research. First, finalized the research theme to search literature (Cooper et al.  2018 ). Second, used numerous research databases to search related articles and download from the database (Web of Science, Google Scholar, Scopus Index Journals, Emerald, Elsevier Science Direct, Springer, and Sciverse). We focused on various articles, with research articles, feedback pieces, short notes, debates, and review articles published in scholarly journals. Reports used to search for multiple keywords such as “Climate Change,” “Mitigation and Adaptation,” “Department of Agriculture and Human Health,” “Department of Biodiversity and Forestry,” etc.; in summary, keyword list and full text have been made. Initially, the search for keywords yielded a large amount of literature.

Methodology search for finalized articles for investigations.

Source : constructed by authors

Since 2020, it has been impossible to review all the articles found; some restrictions have been set for the literature exhibition. The study searched 95 articles on a different database mentioned above based on the nature of the study. It excluded 40 irrelevant papers due to copied from a previous search after readings tiles, abstract and full pieces. The criteria for inclusion were: (i) articles focused on “Global Climate Change Impacts, adaptation, and sustainable mitigation measures,” and (ii) the search key terms related to study requirements. The complete procedure yielded 55 articles for our study. We repeat our search on the “Web of Science and Google Scholars” database to enhance the search results and check the referenced articles.

In this study, 55 articles are reviewed systematically and analyzed for research topics and other aspects, such as the methods, contexts, and theories used in these studies. Furthermore, this study analyzes closely related areas to provide unique research opportunities in the future. The study also discussed future direction opportunities and research questions by understanding the research findings climate changes and other affected sectors. The reviewed paper framework analysis process is outlined in Fig.  2 .

Framework of the analysis Process.

Natural disasters and climate change’s socio-economic consequences

Natural and environmental disasters can be highly variable from year to year; some years pass with very few deaths before a significant disaster event claims many lives (Symanski et al.  2021 ). Approximately 60,000 people globally died from natural disasters each year on average over the past decade (Ritchie and Roser  2014 ; Wiranata and Simbolon  2021 ). So, according to the report, around 0.1% of global deaths. Annual variability in the number and share of deaths from natural disasters in recent decades are shown in Fig.  3 . The number of fatalities can be meager—sometimes less than 10,000, and as few as 0.01% of all deaths. But shock events have a devastating impact: the 1983–1985 famine and drought in Ethiopia; the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami; Cyclone Nargis, which struck Myanmar in 2008; and the 2010 Port-au-Prince earthquake in Haiti and now recent example is COVID-19 pandemic (Erman et al.  2021 ). These events pushed global disaster deaths to over 200,000—more than 0.4% of deaths in these years. Low-frequency, high-impact events such as earthquakes and tsunamis are not preventable, but such high losses of human life are. Historical evidence shows that earlier disaster detection, more robust infrastructure, emergency preparedness, and response programmers have substantially reduced disaster deaths worldwide. Low-income is also the most vulnerable to disasters; improving living conditions, facilities, and response services in these areas would be critical in reducing natural disaster deaths in the coming decades.

Global deaths from natural disasters, 1978 to 2020.

Source EMDAT ( 2020 )

The interior regions of the continent are likely to be impacted by rising temperatures (Dimri et al.  2018 ; Goes et al.  2020 ; Mannig et al.  2018 ; Schuurmans  2021 ). Weather patterns change due to the shortage of natural resources (water), increase in glacier melting, and rising mercury are likely to cause extinction to many planted species (Gampe et al.  2016 ; Mihiretu et al.  2021 ; Shaffril et al.  2018 ).On the other hand, the coastal ecosystem is on the verge of devastation (Perera et al.  2018 ; Phillips  2018 ). The temperature rises, insect disease outbreaks, health-related problems, and seasonal and lifestyle changes are persistent, with a strong probability of these patterns continuing in the future (Abbass et al. 2021c ; Hussain et al.  2018 ). At the global level, a shortage of good infrastructure and insufficient adaptive capacity are hammering the most (IPCC  2013 ). In addition to the above concerns, a lack of environmental education and knowledge, outdated consumer behavior, a scarcity of incentives, a lack of legislation, and the government’s lack of commitment to climate change contribute to the general public’s concerns. By 2050, a 2 to 3% rise in mercury and a drastic shift in rainfall patterns may have serious consequences (Huang et al. 2022 ; Gorst et al.  2018 ). Natural and environmental calamities caused huge losses globally, such as decreased agriculture outputs, rehabilitation of the system, and rebuilding necessary technologies (Ali and Erenstein  2017 ; Ramankutty et al.  2018 ; Yu et al.  2021 ) (Table ​ (Table1). 1 ). Furthermore, in the last 3 or 4 years, the world has been plagued by smog-related eye and skin diseases, as well as a rise in road accidents due to poor visibility.

Main natural danger statistics for 1985–2020 at the global level

Source: EM-DAT ( 2020 )

Climate change and agriculture

Global agriculture is the ultimate sector responsible for 30–40% of all greenhouse emissions, which makes it a leading industry predominantly contributing to climate warming and significantly impacted by it (Grieg; Mishra et al.  2021 ; Ortiz et al.  2021 ; Thornton and Lipper  2014 ). Numerous agro-environmental and climatic factors that have a dominant influence on agriculture productivity (Pautasso et al.  2012 ) are significantly impacted in response to precipitation extremes including floods, forest fires, and droughts (Huang  2004 ). Besides, the immense dependency on exhaustible resources also fuels the fire and leads global agriculture to become prone to devastation. Godfray et al. ( 2010 ) mentioned that decline in agriculture challenges the farmer’s quality of life and thus a significant factor to poverty as the food and water supplies are critically impacted by CC (Ortiz et al.  2021 ; Rosenzweig et al.  2014 ). As an essential part of the economic systems, especially in developing countries, agricultural systems affect the overall economy and potentially the well-being of households (Schlenker and Roberts  2009 ). According to the report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, i.e., CH 4, CO 2 , and N 2 O, are increased in the air to extraordinary levels over the last few centuries (Usman and Makhdum 2021 ; Stocker et al.  2013 ). Climate change is the composite outcome of two different factors. The first is the natural causes, and the second is the anthropogenic actions (Karami 2012 ). It is also forecasted that the world may experience a typical rise in temperature stretching from 1 to 3.7 °C at the end of this century (Pachauri et al. 2014 ). The world’s crop production is also highly vulnerable to these global temperature-changing trends as raised temperatures will pose severe negative impacts on crop growth (Reidsma et al. 2009 ). Some of the recent modeling about the fate of global agriculture is briefly described below.

Decline in cereal productivity

Crop productivity will also be affected dramatically in the next few decades due to variations in integral abiotic factors such as temperature, solar radiation, precipitation, and CO 2 . These all factors are included in various regulatory instruments like progress and growth, weather-tempted changes, pest invasions (Cammell and Knight 1992 ), accompanying disease snags (Fand et al. 2012 ), water supplies (Panda et al. 2003 ), high prices of agro-products in world’s agriculture industry, and preeminent quantity of fertilizer consumption. Lobell and field ( 2007 ) claimed that from 1962 to 2002, wheat crop output had condensed significantly due to rising temperatures. Therefore, during 1980–2011, the common wheat productivity trends endorsed extreme temperature events confirmed by Gourdji et al. ( 2013 ) around South Asia, South America, and Central Asia. Various other studies (Asseng, Cao, Zhang, and Ludwig 2009 ; Asseng et al. 2013 ; García et al. 2015 ; Ortiz et al. 2021 ) also proved that wheat output is negatively affected by the rising temperatures and also caused adverse effects on biomass productivity (Calderini et al. 1999 ; Sadras and Slafer 2012 ). Hereafter, the rice crop is also influenced by the high temperatures at night. These difficulties will worsen because the temperature will be rising further in the future owing to CC (Tebaldi et al. 2006 ). Another research conducted in China revealed that a 4.6% of rice production per 1 °C has happened connected with the advancement in night temperatures (Tao et al. 2006 ). Moreover, the average night temperature growth also affected rice indicia cultivar’s output pragmatically during 25 years in the Philippines (Peng et al. 2004 ). It is anticipated that the increase in world average temperature will also cause a substantial reduction in yield (Hatfield et al. 2011 ; Lobell and Gourdji 2012 ). In the southern hemisphere, Parry et al. ( 2007 ) noted a rise of 1–4 °C in average daily temperatures at the end of spring season unti the middle of summers, and this raised temperature reduced crop output by cutting down the time length for phenophases eventually reduce the yield (Hatfield and Prueger 2015 ; R. Ortiz 2008 ). Also, world climate models have recommended that humid and subtropical regions expect to be plentiful prey to the upcoming heat strokes (Battisti and Naylor 2009 ). Grain production is the amalgamation of two constituents: the average weight and the grain output/m 2 , however, in crop production. Crop output is mainly accredited to the grain quantity (Araus et al. 2008 ; Gambín and Borrás 2010 ). In the times of grain set, yield resources are mainly strewn between hitherto defined components, i.e., grain usual weight and grain output, which presents a trade-off between them (Gambín and Borrás 2010 ) beside disparities in per grain integration (B. L. Gambín et al. 2006 ). In addition to this, the maize crop is also susceptible to raised temperatures, principally in the flowering stage (Edreira and Otegui 2013 ). In reality, the lower grain number is associated with insufficient acclimatization due to intense photosynthesis and higher respiration and the high-temperature effect on the reproduction phenomena (Edreira and Otegui 2013 ). During the flowering phase, maize visible to heat (30–36 °C) seemed less anthesis-silking intermissions (Edreira et al. 2011 ). Another research by Dupuis and Dumas ( 1990 ) proved that a drop in spikelet when directly visible to high temperatures above 35 °C in vitro pollination. Abnormalities in kernel number claimed by Vega et al. ( 2001 ) is related to conceded plant development during a flowering phase that is linked with the active ear growth phase and categorized as a critical phase for approximation of kernel number during silking (Otegui and Bonhomme 1998 ).

The retort of rice output to high temperature presents disparities in flowering patterns, and seed set lessens and lessens grain weight (Qasim et al. 2020 ; Qasim, Hammad, Maqsood, Tariq, & Chawla). During the daytime, heat directly impacts flowers which lessens the thesis period and quickens the earlier peak flowering (Tao et al. 2006 ). Antagonistic effect of higher daytime temperature d on pollen sprouting proposed seed set decay, whereas, seed set was lengthily reduced than could be explicated by pollen growing at high temperatures 40◦C (Matsui et al. 2001 ).

The decline in wheat output is linked with higher temperatures, confirmed in numerous studies (Semenov 2009 ; Stone and Nicolas 1994 ). High temperatures fast-track the arrangements of plant expansion (Blum et al. 2001 ), diminution photosynthetic process (Salvucci and Crafts‐Brandner 2004 ), and also considerably affect the reproductive operations (Farooq et al. 2011 ).

The destructive impacts of CC induced weather extremes to deteriorate the integrity of crops (Chaudhary et al. 2011 ), e.g., Spartan cold and extreme fog cause falling and discoloration of betel leaves (Rosenzweig et al. 2001 ), giving them a somehow reddish appearance, squeezing of lemon leaves (Pautasso et al. 2012 ), as well as root rot of pineapple, have reported (Vedwan and Rhoades 2001 ). Henceforth, in tackling the disruptive effects of CC, several short-term and long-term management approaches are the crucial need of time (Fig.  4 ). Moreover, various studies (Chaudhary et al. 2011 ; Patz et al. 2005 ; Pautasso et al. 2012 ) have demonstrated adapting trends such as ameliorating crop diversity can yield better adaptability towards CC.

Schematic description of potential impacts of climate change on the agriculture sector and the appropriate mitigation and adaptation measures to overcome its impact.

Climate change impacts on biodiversity

Global biodiversity is among the severe victims of CC because it is the fastest emerging cause of species loss. Studies demonstrated that the massive scale species dynamics are considerably associated with diverse climatic events (Abraham and Chain 1988 ; Manes et al. 2021 ; A. M. D. Ortiz et al. 2021 ). Both the pace and magnitude of CC are altering the compatible habitat ranges for living entities of marine, freshwater, and terrestrial regions. Alterations in general climate regimes influence the integrity of ecosystems in numerous ways, such as variation in the relative abundance of species, range shifts, changes in activity timing, and microhabitat use (Bates et al. 2014 ). The geographic distribution of any species often depends upon its ability to tolerate environmental stresses, biological interactions, and dispersal constraints. Hence, instead of the CC, the local species must only accept, adapt, move, or face extinction (Berg et al. 2010 ). So, the best performer species have a better survival capacity for adjusting to new ecosystems or a decreased perseverance to survive where they are already situated (Bates et al. 2014 ). An important aspect here is the inadequate habitat connectivity and access to microclimates, also crucial in raising the exposure to climate warming and extreme heatwave episodes. For example, the carbon sequestration rates are undergoing fluctuations due to climate-driven expansion in the range of global mangroves (Cavanaugh et al. 2014 ).

Similarly, the loss of kelp-forest ecosystems in various regions and its occupancy by the seaweed turfs has set the track for elevated herbivory by the high influx of tropical fish populations. Not only this, the increased water temperatures have exacerbated the conditions far away from the physiological tolerance level of the kelp communities (Vergés et al. 2016 ; Wernberg et al. 2016 ). Another pertinent danger is the devastation of keystone species, which even has more pervasive effects on the entire communities in that habitat (Zarnetske et al. 2012 ). It is particularly important as CC does not specify specific populations or communities. Eventually, this CC-induced redistribution of species may deteriorate carbon storage and the net ecosystem productivity (Weed et al. 2013 ). Among the typical disruptions, the prominent ones include impacts on marine and terrestrial productivity, marine community assembly, and the extended invasion of toxic cyanobacteria bloom (Fossheim et al. 2015 ).

The CC-impacted species extinction is widely reported in the literature (Beesley et al. 2019 ; Urban 2015 ), and the predictions of demise until the twenty-first century are dreadful (Abbass et al. 2019 ; Pereira et al. 2013 ). In a few cases, northward shifting of species may not be formidable as it allows mountain-dwelling species to find optimum climates. However, the migrant species may be trapped in isolated and incompatible habitats due to losing topography and range (Dullinger et al. 2012 ). For example, a study indicated that the American pika has been extirpated or intensely diminished in some regions, primarily attributed to the CC-impacted extinction or at least local extirpation (Stewart et al. 2015 ). Besides, the anticipation of persistent responses to the impacts of CC often requires data records of several decades to rigorously analyze the critical pre and post CC patterns at species and ecosystem levels (Manes et al. 2021 ; Testa et al. 2018 ).

Nonetheless, the availability of such long-term data records is rare; hence, attempts are needed to focus on these profound aspects. Biodiversity is also vulnerable to the other associated impacts of CC, such as rising temperatures, droughts, and certain invasive pest species. For instance, a study revealed the changes in the composition of plankton communities attributed to rising temperatures. Henceforth, alterations in such aquatic producer communities, i.e., diatoms and calcareous plants, can ultimately lead to variation in the recycling of biological carbon. Moreover, such changes are characterized as a potential contributor to CO 2 differences between the Pleistocene glacial and interglacial periods (Kohfeld et al. 2005 ).

Climate change implications on human health

It is an understood corporality that human health is a significant victim of CC (Costello et al. 2009 ). According to the WHO, CC might be responsible for 250,000 additional deaths per year during 2030–2050 (Watts et al. 2015 ). These deaths are attributed to extreme weather-induced mortality and morbidity and the global expansion of vector-borne diseases (Lemery et al. 2021; Yang and Usman 2021 ; Meierrieks 2021 ; UNEP 2017 ). Here, some of the emerging health issues pertinent to this global problem are briefly described.

Climate change and antimicrobial resistance with corresponding economic costs

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is an up-surging complex global health challenge (Garner et al. 2019 ; Lemery et al. 2021 ). Health professionals across the globe are extremely worried due to this phenomenon that has critical potential to reverse almost all the progress that has been achieved so far in the health discipline (Gosling and Arnell 2016 ). A massive amount of antibiotics is produced by many pharmaceutical industries worldwide, and the pathogenic microorganisms are gradually developing resistance to them, which can be comprehended how strongly this aspect can shake the foundations of national and global economies (UNEP 2017 ). This statement is supported by the fact that AMR is not developing in a particular region or country. Instead, it is flourishing in every continent of the world (WHO 2018 ). This plague is heavily pushing humanity to the post-antibiotic era, in which currently antibiotic-susceptible pathogens will once again lead to certain endemics and pandemics after being resistant(WHO 2018 ). Undesirably, if this statement would become a factuality, there might emerge certain risks in undertaking sophisticated interventions such as chemotherapy, joint replacement cases, and organ transplantation (Su et al. 2018 ). Presently, the amplification of drug resistance cases has made common illnesses like pneumonia, post-surgical infections, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, etc., too difficult and costly to be treated or cure well (WHO 2018 ). From a simple example, it can be assumed how easily antibiotic-resistant strains can be transmitted from one person to another and ultimately travel across the boundaries (Berendonk et al. 2015 ). Talking about the second- and third-generation classes of antibiotics, e.g., most renowned generations of cephalosporin antibiotics that are more expensive, broad-spectrum, more toxic, and usually require more extended periods whenever prescribed to patients (Lemery et al. 2021 ; Pärnänen et al. 2019 ). This scenario has also revealed that the abundance of resistant strains of pathogens was also higher in the Southern part (WHO 2018 ). As southern parts are generally warmer than their counterparts, it is evident from this example how CC-induced global warming can augment the spread of antibiotic-resistant strains within the biosphere, eventually putting additional economic burden in the face of developing new and costlier antibiotics. The ARG exchange to susceptible bacteria through one of the potential mechanisms, transformation, transduction, and conjugation; Selection pressure can be caused by certain antibiotics, metals or pesticides, etc., as shown in Fig.  5 .

A typical interaction between the susceptible and resistant strains.

Source: Elsayed et al. ( 2021 ); Karkman et al. ( 2018 )

Certain studies highlighted that conventional urban wastewater treatment plants are typical hotspots where most bacterial strains exchange genetic material through horizontal gene transfer (Fig.  5 ). Although at present, the extent of risks associated with the antibiotic resistance found in wastewater is complicated; environmental scientists and engineers have particular concerns about the potential impacts of these antibiotic resistance genes on human health (Ashbolt 2015 ). At most undesirable and worst case, these antibiotic-resistant genes containing bacteria can make their way to enter into the environment (Pruden et al. 2013 ), irrigation water used for crops and public water supplies and ultimately become a part of food chains and food webs (Ma et al. 2019 ; D. Wu et al. 2019 ). This problem has been reported manifold in several countries (Hendriksen et al. 2019 ), where wastewater as a means of irrigated water is quite common.

Climate change and vector borne-diseases

Temperature is a fundamental factor for the sustenance of living entities regardless of an ecosystem. So, a specific living being, especially a pathogen, requires a sophisticated temperature range to exist on earth. The second essential component of CC is precipitation, which also impacts numerous infectious agents’ transport and dissemination patterns. Global rising temperature is a significant cause of many species extinction. On the one hand, this changing environmental temperature may be causing species extinction, and on the other, this warming temperature might favor the thriving of some new organisms. Here, it was evident that some pathogens may also upraise once non-evident or reported (Patz et al. 2000 ). This concept can be exemplified through certain pathogenic strains of microorganisms that how the likelihood of various diseases increases in response to climate warming-induced environmental changes (Table ​ (Table2 2 ).

Examples of how various environmental changes affect various infectious diseases in humans

Source: Aron and Patz ( 2001 )

A recent example is an outburst of coronavirus (COVID-19) in the Republic of China, causing pneumonia and severe acute respiratory complications (Cui et al. 2021 ; Song et al. 2021 ). The large family of viruses is harbored in numerous animals, bats, and snakes in particular (livescience.com) with the subsequent transfer into human beings. Hence, it is worth noting that the thriving of numerous vectors involved in spreading various diseases is influenced by Climate change (Ogden 2018 ; Santos et al. 2021 ).

Psychological impacts of climate change

Climate change (CC) is responsible for the rapid dissemination and exaggeration of certain epidemics and pandemics. In addition to the vast apparent impacts of climate change on health, forestry, agriculture, etc., it may also have psychological implications on vulnerable societies. It can be exemplified through the recent outburst of (COVID-19) in various countries around the world (Pal 2021 ). Besides, the victims of this viral infection have made healthy beings scarier and terrified. In the wake of such epidemics, people with common colds or fever are also frightened and must pass specific regulatory protocols. Living in such situations continuously terrifies the public and makes the stress familiar, which eventually makes them psychologically weak (npr.org).

CC boosts the extent of anxiety, distress, and other issues in public, pushing them to develop various mental-related problems. Besides, frequent exposure to extreme climatic catastrophes such as geological disasters also imprints post-traumatic disorder, and their ubiquitous occurrence paves the way to developing chronic psychological dysfunction. Moreover, repetitive listening from media also causes an increase in the person’s stress level (Association 2020 ). Similarly, communities living in flood-prone areas constantly live in extreme fear of drowning and die by floods. In addition to human lives, the flood-induced destruction of physical infrastructure is a specific reason for putting pressure on these communities (Ogden 2018 ). For instance, Ogden ( 2018 ) comprehensively denoted that Katrina’s Hurricane augmented the mental health issues in the victim communities.

Climate change impacts on the forestry sector

Forests are the global regulators of the world’s climate (FAO 2018 ) and have an indispensable role in regulating global carbon and nitrogen cycles (Rehman et al. 2021 ; Reichstein and Carvalhais 2019 ). Hence, disturbances in forest ecology affect the micro and macro-climates (Ellison et al. 2017 ). Climate warming, in return, has profound impacts on the growth and productivity of transboundary forests by influencing the temperature and precipitation patterns, etc. As CC induces specific changes in the typical structure and functions of ecosystems (Zhang et al. 2017 ) as well impacts forest health, climate change also has several devastating consequences such as forest fires, droughts, pest outbreaks (EPA 2018 ), and last but not the least is the livelihoods of forest-dependent communities. The rising frequency and intensity of another CC product, i.e., droughts, pose plenty of challenges to the well-being of global forests (Diffenbaugh et al. 2017 ), which is further projected to increase soon (Hartmann et al. 2018 ; Lehner et al. 2017 ; Rehman et al. 2021 ). Hence, CC induces storms, with more significant impacts also put extra pressure on the survival of the global forests (Martínez-Alvarado et al. 2018 ), significantly since their influences are augmented during higher winter precipitations with corresponding wetter soils causing weak root anchorage of trees (Brázdil et al. 2018 ). Surging temperature regimes causes alterations in usual precipitation patterns, which is a significant hurdle for the survival of temperate forests (Allen et al. 2010 ; Flannigan et al. 2013 ), letting them encounter severe stress and disturbances which adversely affects the local tree species (Hubbart et al. 2016 ; Millar and Stephenson 2015 ; Rehman et al. 2021 ).

Climate change impacts on forest-dependent communities

Forests are the fundamental livelihood resource for about 1.6 billion people worldwide; out of them, 350 million are distinguished with relatively higher reliance (Bank 2008 ). Agro-forestry-dependent communities comprise 1.2 billion, and 60 million indigenous people solely rely on forests and their products to sustain their lives (Sunderlin et al. 2005 ). For example, in the entire African continent, more than 2/3rd of inhabitants depend on forest resources and woodlands for their alimonies, e.g., food, fuelwood and grazing (Wasiq and Ahmad 2004 ). The livings of these people are more intensely affected by the climatic disruptions making their lives harder (Brown et al. 2014 ). On the one hand, forest communities are incredibly vulnerable to CC due to their livelihoods, cultural and spiritual ties as well as socio-ecological connections, and on the other, they are not familiar with the term “climate change.” (Rahman and Alam 2016 ). Among the destructive impacts of temperature and rainfall, disruption of the agroforestry crops with resultant downscale growth and yield (Macchi et al. 2008 ). Cruz ( 2015 ) ascribed that forest-dependent smallholder farmers in the Philippines face the enigma of delayed fruiting, more severe damages by insect and pest incidences due to unfavorable temperature regimes, and changed rainfall patterns.

Among these series of challenges to forest communities, their well-being is also distinctly vulnerable to CC. Though the detailed climate change impacts on human health have been comprehensively mentioned in the previous section, some studies have listed a few more devastating effects on the prosperity of forest-dependent communities. For instance, the Himalayan people have been experiencing frequent skin-borne diseases such as malaria and other skin diseases due to increasing mosquitoes, wild boar as well, and new wasps species, particularly in higher altitudes that were almost non-existent before last 5–10 years (Xu et al. 2008 ). Similarly, people living at high altitudes in Bangladesh have experienced frequent mosquito-borne calamities (Fardous; Sharma 2012 ). In addition, the pace of other waterborne diseases such as infectious diarrhea, cholera, pathogenic induced abdominal complications and dengue has also been boosted in other distinguished regions of Bangladesh (Cell 2009 ; Gunter et al. 2008 ).

Pest outbreak

Upscaling hotter climate may positively affect the mobile organisms with shorter generation times because they can scurry from harsh conditions than the immobile species (Fettig et al. 2013 ; Schoene and Bernier 2012 ) and are also relatively more capable of adapting to new environments (Jactel et al. 2019 ). It reveals that insects adapt quickly to global warming due to their mobility advantages. Due to past outbreaks, the trees (forests) are relatively more susceptible victims (Kurz et al. 2008 ). Before CC, the influence of factors mentioned earlier, i.e., droughts and storms, was existent and made the forests susceptible to insect pest interventions; however, the global forests remain steadfast, assiduous, and green (Jactel et al. 2019 ). The typical reasons could be the insect herbivores were regulated by several tree defenses and pressures of predation (Wilkinson and Sherratt 2016 ). As climate greatly influences these phenomena, the global forests cannot be so sedulous against such challenges (Jactel et al. 2019 ). Table ​ Table3 3 demonstrates some of the particular considerations with practical examples that are essential while mitigating the impacts of CC in the forestry sector.

Essential considerations while mitigating the climate change impacts on the forestry sector

Source : Fischer ( 2019 )

Climate change impacts on tourism

Tourism is a commercial activity that has roots in multi-dimensions and an efficient tool with adequate job generation potential, revenue creation, earning of spectacular foreign exchange, enhancement in cross-cultural promulgation and cooperation, a business tool for entrepreneurs and eventually for the country’s national development (Arshad et al. 2018 ; Scott 2021 ). Among a plethora of other disciplines, the tourism industry is also a distinct victim of climate warming (Gössling et al. 2012 ; Hall et al. 2015 ) as the climate is among the essential resources that enable tourism in particular regions as most preferred locations. Different places at different times of the year attract tourists both within and across the countries depending upon the feasibility and compatibility of particular weather patterns. Hence, the massive variations in these weather patterns resulting from CC will eventually lead to monumental challenges to the local economy in that specific area’s particular and national economy (Bujosa et al. 2015 ). For instance, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report demonstrated that the global tourism industry had faced a considerable decline in the duration of ski season, including the loss of some ski areas and the dramatic shifts in tourist destinations’ climate warming.

Furthermore, different studies (Neuvonen et al. 2015 ; Scott et al. 2004 ) indicated that various currently perfect tourist spots, e.g., coastal areas, splendid islands, and ski resorts, will suffer consequences of CC. It is also worth noting that the quality and potential of administrative management potential to cope with the influence of CC on the tourism industry is of crucial significance, which renders specific strengths of resiliency to numerous destinations to withstand against it (Füssel and Hildén 2014 ). Similarly, in the partial or complete absence of adequate socio-economic and socio-political capital, the high-demanding tourist sites scurry towards the verge of vulnerability. The susceptibility of tourism is based on different components such as the extent of exposure, sensitivity, life-supporting sectors, and capacity assessment factors (Füssel and Hildén 2014 ). It is obvious corporality that sectors such as health, food, ecosystems, human habitat, infrastructure, water availability, and the accessibility of a particular region are prone to CC. Henceforth, the sensitivity of these critical sectors to CC and, in return, the adaptive measures are a hallmark in determining the composite vulnerability of climate warming (Ionescu et al. 2009 ).

Moreover, the dependence on imported food items, poor hygienic conditions, and inadequate health professionals are dominant aspects affecting the local terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity. Meanwhile, the greater dependency on ecosystem services and its products also makes a destination more fragile to become a prey of CC (Rizvi et al. 2015 ). Some significant non-climatic factors are important indicators of a particular ecosystem’s typical health and functioning, e.g., resource richness and abundance portray the picture of ecosystem stability. Similarly, the species abundance is also a productive tool that ensures that the ecosystem has a higher buffering capacity, which is terrific in terms of resiliency (Roscher et al. 2013 ).

Climate change impacts on the economic sector

Climate plays a significant role in overall productivity and economic growth. Due to its increasingly global existence and its effect on economic growth, CC has become one of the major concerns of both local and international environmental policymakers (Ferreira et al. 2020 ; Gleditsch 2021 ; Abbass et al. 2021b ; Lamperti et al. 2021 ). The adverse effects of CC on the overall productivity factor of the agricultural sector are therefore significant for understanding the creation of local adaptation policies and the composition of productive climate policy contracts. Previous studies on CC in the world have already forecasted its effects on the agricultural sector. Researchers have found that global CC will impact the agricultural sector in different world regions. The study of the impacts of CC on various agrarian activities in other demographic areas and the development of relative strategies to respond to effects has become a focal point for researchers (Chandioet al. 2020 ; Gleditsch 2021 ; Mosavi et al. 2020 ).

With the rapid growth of global warming since the 1980s, the temperature has started increasing globally, which resulted in the incredible transformation of rain and evaporation in the countries. The agricultural development of many countries has been reliant, delicate, and susceptible to CC for a long time, and it is on the development of agriculture total factor productivity (ATFP) influence different crops and yields of farmers (Alhassan 2021 ; Wu  2020 ).

Food security and natural disasters are increasing rapidly in the world. Several major climatic/natural disasters have impacted local crop production in the countries concerned. The effects of these natural disasters have been poorly controlled by the development of the economies and populations and may affect human life as well. One example is China, which is among the world’s most affected countries, vulnerable to natural disasters due to its large population, harsh environmental conditions, rapid CC, low environmental stability, and disaster power. According to the January 2016 statistical survey, China experienced an economic loss of 298.3 billion Yuan, and about 137 million Chinese people were severely affected by various natural disasters (Xie et al. 2018 ).

Mitigation and adaptation strategies of climate changes

Adaptation and mitigation are the crucial factors to address the response to CC (Jahanzad et al. 2020 ). Researchers define mitigation on climate changes, and on the other hand, adaptation directly impacts climate changes like floods. To some extent, mitigation reduces or moderates greenhouse gas emission, and it becomes a critical issue both economically and environmentally (Botzen et al. 2021 ; Jahanzad et al. 2020 ; Kongsager 2018 ; Smit et al. 2000 ; Vale et al. 2021 ; Usman et al. 2021 ; Verheyen 2005 ).

Researchers have deep concern about the adaptation and mitigation methodologies in sectoral and geographical contexts. Agriculture, industry, forestry, transport, and land use are the main sectors to adapt and mitigate policies(Kärkkäinen et al. 2020 ; Waheed et al. 2021 ). Adaptation and mitigation require particular concern both at the national and international levels. The world has faced a significant problem of climate change in the last decades, and adaptation to these effects is compulsory for economic and social development. To adapt and mitigate against CC, one should develop policies and strategies at the international level (Hussain et al. 2020 ). Figure  6 depicts the list of current studies on sectoral impacts of CC with adaptation and mitigation measures globally.

Sectoral impacts of climate change with adaptation and mitigation measures.

Conclusion and future perspectives

Specific socio-agricultural, socio-economic, and physical systems are the cornerstone of psychological well-being, and the alteration in these systems by CC will have disastrous impacts. Climate variability, alongside other anthropogenic and natural stressors, influences human and environmental health sustainability. Food security is another concerning scenario that may lead to compromised food quality, higher food prices, and inadequate food distribution systems. Global forests are challenged by different climatic factors such as storms, droughts, flash floods, and intense precipitation. On the other hand, their anthropogenic wiping is aggrandizing their existence. Undoubtedly, the vulnerability scale of the world’s regions differs; however, appropriate mitigation and adaptation measures can aid the decision-making bodies in developing effective policies to tackle its impacts. Presently, modern life on earth has tailored to consistent climatic patterns, and accordingly, adapting to such considerable variations is of paramount importance. Because the faster changes in climate will make it harder to survive and adjust, this globally-raising enigma calls for immediate attention at every scale ranging from elementary community level to international level. Still, much effort, research, and dedication are required, which is the most critical time. Some policy implications can help us to mitigate the consequences of climate change, especially the most affected sectors like the agriculture sector;

Warming might lengthen the season in frost-prone growing regions (temperate and arctic zones), allowing for longer-maturing seasonal cultivars with better yields (Pfadenhauer 2020 ; Bonacci 2019 ). Extending the planting season may allow additional crops each year; when warming leads to frequent warmer months highs over critical thresholds, a split season with a brief summer fallow may be conceivable for short-period crops such as wheat barley, cereals, and many other vegetable crops. The capacity to prolong the planting season in tropical and subtropical places where the harvest season is constrained by precipitation or agriculture farming occurs after the year may be more limited and dependent on how precipitation patterns vary (Wu et al. 2017 ).

The genetic component is comprehensive for many yields, but it is restricted like kiwi fruit for a few. Ali et al. ( 2017 ) investigated how new crops will react to climatic changes (also stated in Mall et al. 2017 ). Hot temperature, drought, insect resistance; salt tolerance; and overall crop production and product quality increases would all be advantageous (Akkari 2016 ). Genetic mapping and engineering can introduce a greater spectrum of features. The adoption of genetically altered cultivars has been slowed, particularly in the early forecasts owing to the complexity in ensuring features are expediently expressed throughout the entire plant, customer concerns, economic profitability, and regulatory impediments (Wirehn 2018 ; Davidson et al. 2016 ).

To get the full benefit of the CO 2 would certainly require additional nitrogen and other fertilizers. Nitrogen not consumed by the plants may be excreted into groundwater, discharged into water surface, or emitted from the land, soil nitrous oxide when large doses of fertilizer are sprayed. Increased nitrogen levels in groundwater sources have been related to human chronic illnesses and impact marine ecosystems. Cultivation, grain drying, and other field activities have all been examined in depth in the studies (Barua et al. 2018 ).

• The technological and socio-economic adaptation

The policy consequence of the causative conclusion is that as a source of alternative energy, biofuel production is one of the routes that explain oil price volatility separate from international macroeconomic factors. Even though biofuel production has just begun in a few sample nations, there is still a tremendous worldwide need for feedstock to satisfy industrial expansion in China and the USA, which explains the food price relationship to the global oil price. Essentially, oil-exporting countries may create incentives in their economies to increase food production. It may accomplish by giving farmers financing, seedlings, fertilizers, and farming equipment. Because of the declining global oil price and, as a result, their earnings from oil export, oil-producing nations may be unable to subsidize food imports even in the near term. As a result, these countries can boost the agricultural value chain for export. It may be accomplished through R&D and adding value to their food products to increase income by correcting exchange rate misalignment and adverse trade terms. These nations may also diversify their economies away from oil, as dependence on oil exports alone is no longer economically viable given the extreme volatility of global oil prices. Finally, resource-rich and oil-exporting countries can convert to non-food renewable energy sources such as solar, hydro, coal, wind, wave, and tidal energy. By doing so, both world food and oil supplies would be maintained rather than harmed.

IRENA’s modeling work shows that, if a comprehensive policy framework is in place, efforts toward decarbonizing the energy future will benefit economic activity, jobs (outweighing losses in the fossil fuel industry), and welfare. Countries with weak domestic supply chains and a large reliance on fossil fuel income, in particular, must undertake structural reforms to capitalize on the opportunities inherent in the energy transition. Governments continue to give major policy assistance to extract fossil fuels, including tax incentives, financing, direct infrastructure expenditures, exemptions from environmental regulations, and other measures. The majority of major oil and gas producing countries intend to increase output. Some countries intend to cut coal output, while others plan to maintain or expand it. While some nations are beginning to explore and execute policies aimed at a just and equitable transition away from fossil fuel production, these efforts have yet to impact major producing countries’ plans and goals. Verifiable and comparable data on fossil fuel output and assistance from governments and industries are critical to closing the production gap. Governments could increase openness by declaring their production intentions in their climate obligations under the Paris Agreement.

It is firmly believed that achieving the Paris Agreement commitments is doubtlful without undergoing renewable energy transition across the globe (Murshed 2020 ; Zhao et al. 2022 ). Policy instruments play the most important role in determining the degree of investment in renewable energy technology. This study examines the efficacy of various policy strategies in the renewable energy industry of multiple nations. Although its impact is more visible in established renewable energy markets, a renewable portfolio standard is also a useful policy instrument. The cost of producing renewable energy is still greater than other traditional energy sources. Furthermore, government incentives in the R&D sector can foster innovation in this field, resulting in cost reductions in the renewable energy industry. These nations may export their technologies and share their policy experiences by forming networks among their renewable energy-focused organizations. All policy measures aim to reduce production costs while increasing the proportion of renewables to a country’s energy system. Meanwhile, long-term contracts with renewable energy providers, government commitment and control, and the establishment of long-term goals can assist developing nations in deploying renewable energy technology in their energy sector.

Author contribution

KA: Writing the original manuscript, data collection, data analysis, Study design, Formal analysis, Visualization, Revised draft, Writing-review, and editing. MZQ: Writing the original manuscript, data collection, data analysis, Writing-review, and editing. HS: Contribution to the contextualization of the theme, Conceptualization, Validation, Supervision, literature review, Revised drapt, and writing review and editing. MM: Writing review and editing, compiling the literature review, language editing. HM: Writing review and editing, compiling the literature review, language editing. IY: Contribution to the contextualization of the theme, literature review, and writing review and editing.

Availability of data and material

Declarations.

Not applicable.

The authors declare no competing interests.

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Contributor Information

Kashif Abbass, Email: nc.ude.tsujn@ssabbafihsak .

Muhammad Zeeshan Qasim, Email: moc.kooltuo@888misaqnahseez .

Huaming Song, Email: nc.ude.tsujn@gnimauh .

Muntasir Murshed, Email: [email protected] .

Haider Mahmood, Email: moc.liamtoh@doomhamrediah .

Ijaz Younis, Email: nc.ude.tsujn@sinuoyzaji .

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June 20, 2023

This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies . Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility:

fact-checked

Media coverage of climate change research does not inspire action, say scientists

by University of Lausanne

The planet is warming because of human activities and the consequences will be devastating for all living beings, including humans. At present, everyone is potentially exposed this information in the media. But how do scientific journals and the media relay research related to these issues? Is the scientific focus of climate warming research reflected in what the media decided to present?

In a study published in Global Environmental Change , scientists from UNIL specialized in geosciences and psychology have examined these questions. An analysis of the collection of about 50,000 scientific publications on climate change for the year 2020 was carried out to identify what of this impressive body of research made its way into the mainstream media.

The analysis showed that that most of the research selected by the media was biased to the natural sciences. It overly focused on large-scale climate projections that will occur in the future, and a narrow range of threats such as polar bears , drought and melting glaciers. The paper shows that this type of narrative does not activate the mechanisms known from research on psychology that might engage pro-environmental behaviors in readers.

On the contrary, the way the media's selective choice of certain elements of climate change research could backfire, provoking denial and avoidance.

Presenting the problem, but also the solutions

The study speaks of a possible distancing reaction on the part of the public, resulting from this globalizing approach. "The individuals exposed to these facts, not feeling directly concerned by them, will tend towards a peripheral, superficial and distracted treatment of the information. Only a central, deep and attentive consideration will allow the public to transform what they know into mechanisms of action and commitment," explains Fabrizio Butera, professor at the Institute of Psychology of the UNIL, and co-author of the study.

Marie-Elodie Perga, professor at the UNIL Institute of Land Surface Dynamics and co-author of the paper adds, "If the goal of mediating research is to have a societal impact, then it seems that we are pushing all the buttons that don't work."

Large-scale threats can create fear. But, as Fabrizio Butera reminds us, "research on human behavior shows that fear can lead to behavioral change in individuals and groups, but only if the problem presented is accompanied by solutions." Faced with purely descriptive articles that emphasize only highly selected elements of climate change, the public will tend to ignore the problem, seek out less anxiety-provoking information and surround themselves with networks that present a more serene reality.

Research, scientific journals and media

What can be done, then, to communicate in an effective, encouraging way, encouraging society to engage more widely in climate protection action? "The treatment of environmental issues in a transversal and solution-oriented way would be useful. It would show that climate change has direct consequences on our lifestyles, our immediate environment or our finances, for example," says Marie-Elodie Perga.

This approach requires a change in the behavior of communication managers in research institutions, in publishers, as well as in the media. "For the time being, the most renowned scientific publications favor end-of-century studies," she explains. "Journalists then give very wide coverage to the publications of these journals, which are the most highly rated."

"Instead, in France, for example, a group of journalists has drawn up a charter advocating the adaptation of media coverage of these issues, and calling for more cross-disciplinarity," says Marie-Elodie Perga. Isolated, a human being will not have an impact, but collective actions are very effective. There are solutions, but they need to be brought to light, beyond local initiatives.

Provided by University of Lausanne

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