make a hypothesis in scientific method

What is a scientific hypothesis?

It's the initial building block in the scientific method.

Hypothesis basics

What makes a hypothesis testable.

• Types of hypotheses
• Hypothesis versus theory

Additional resources

Bibliography.

A scientific hypothesis is a tentative, testable explanation for a phenomenon in the natural world. It's the initial building block in the scientific method . Many describe it as an "educated guess" based on prior knowledge and observation. While this is true, a hypothesis is more informed than a guess. While an "educated guess" suggests a random prediction based on a person's expertise, developing a hypothesis requires active observation and background research. 

The basic idea of a hypothesis is that there is no predetermined outcome. For a solution to be termed a scientific hypothesis, it has to be an idea that can be supported or refuted through carefully crafted experimentation or observation. This concept, called falsifiability and testability, was advanced in the mid-20th century by Austrian-British philosopher Karl Popper in his famous book "The Logic of Scientific Discovery" (Routledge, 1959).

A key function of a hypothesis is to derive predictions about the results of future experiments and then perform those experiments to see whether they support the predictions.

A hypothesis is usually written in the form of an if-then statement, which gives a possibility (if) and explains what may happen because of the possibility (then). The statement could also include "may," according to California State University, Bakersfield .

Here are some examples of hypothesis statements:

• If garlic repels fleas, then a dog that is given garlic every day will not get fleas.
• If sugar causes cavities, then people who eat a lot of candy may be more prone to cavities.
• If ultraviolet light can damage the eyes, then maybe this light can cause blindness.

A useful hypothesis should be testable and falsifiable. That means that it should be possible to prove it wrong. A theory that can't be proved wrong is nonscientific, according to Karl Popper's 1963 book " Conjectures and Refutations ."

An example of an untestable statement is, "Dogs are better than cats." That's because the definition of "better" is vague and subjective. However, an untestable statement can be reworded to make it testable. For example, the previous statement could be changed to this: "Owning a dog is associated with higher levels of physical fitness than owning a cat." With this statement, the researcher can take measures of physical fitness from dog and cat owners and compare the two.

Types of scientific hypotheses

In an experiment, researchers generally state their hypotheses in two ways. The null hypothesis predicts that there will be no relationship between the variables tested, or no difference between the experimental groups. The alternative hypothesis predicts the opposite: that there will be a difference between the experimental groups. This is usually the hypothesis scientists are most interested in, according to the University of Miami .

For example, a null hypothesis might state, "There will be no difference in the rate of muscle growth between people who take a protein supplement and people who don't." The alternative hypothesis would state, "There will be a difference in the rate of muscle growth between people who take a protein supplement and people who don't."

If the results of the experiment show a relationship between the variables, then the null hypothesis has been rejected in favor of the alternative hypothesis, according to the book " Research Methods in Psychology " (​​BCcampus, 2015). 

There are other ways to describe an alternative hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis above does not specify a direction of the effect, only that there will be a difference between the two groups. That type of prediction is called a two-tailed hypothesis. If a hypothesis specifies a certain direction — for example, that people who take a protein supplement will gain more muscle than people who don't — it is called a one-tailed hypothesis, according to William M. K. Trochim , a professor of Policy Analysis and Management at Cornell University.

Sometimes, errors take place during an experiment. These errors can happen in one of two ways. A type I error is when the null hypothesis is rejected when it is true. This is also known as a false positive. A type II error occurs when the null hypothesis is not rejected when it is false. This is also known as a false negative, according to the University of California, Berkeley . 

A hypothesis can be rejected or modified, but it can never be proved correct 100% of the time. For example, a scientist can form a hypothesis stating that if a certain type of tomato has a gene for red pigment, that type of tomato will be red. During research, the scientist then finds that each tomato of this type is red. Though the findings confirm the hypothesis, there may be a tomato of that type somewhere in the world that isn't red. Thus, the hypothesis is true, but it may not be true 100% of the time.

Scientific theory vs. scientific hypothesis

The best hypotheses are simple. They deal with a relatively narrow set of phenomena. But theories are broader; they generally combine multiple hypotheses into a general explanation for a wide range of phenomena, according to the University of California, Berkeley . For example, a hypothesis might state, "If animals adapt to suit their environments, then birds that live on islands with lots of seeds to eat will have differently shaped beaks than birds that live on islands with lots of insects to eat." After testing many hypotheses like these, Charles Darwin formulated an overarching theory: the theory of evolution by natural selection.

"Theories are the ways that we make sense of what we observe in the natural world," Tanner said. "Theories are structures of ideas that explain and interpret facts." 

• Read more about writing a hypothesis, from the American Medical Writers Association.
• Find out why a hypothesis isn't always necessary in science, from The American Biology Teacher.
• Learn about null and alternative hypotheses, from Prof. Essa on YouTube .

Encyclopedia Britannica. Scientific Hypothesis. Jan. 13, 2022. https://www.britannica.com/science/scientific-hypothesis

Karl Popper, "The Logic of Scientific Discovery," Routledge, 1959.

California State University, Bakersfield, "Formatting a testable hypothesis." https://www.csub.edu/~ddodenhoff/Bio100/Bio100sp04/formattingahypothesis.htm  

Karl Popper, "Conjectures and Refutations," Routledge, 1963.

Price, P., Jhangiani, R., & Chiang, I., "Research Methods of Psychology — 2nd Canadian Edition," BCcampus, 2015.‌

University of Miami, "The Scientific Method" http://www.bio.miami.edu/dana/161/evolution/161app1_scimethod.pdf  

William M.K. Trochim, "Research Methods Knowledge Base," https://conjointly.com/kb/hypotheses-explained/  

University of California, Berkeley, "Multiple Hypothesis Testing and False Discovery Rate" https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~hhuang/STAT141/Lecture-FDR.pdf  

University of California, Berkeley, "Science at multiple levels" https://undsci.berkeley.edu/article/0_0_0/howscienceworks_19

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2.1: The Scientific Method

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Hypothesis Testing and The scientific Method

The scientific method is a process of research with defined steps that include data collection and careful observation. The scientific method was used even in ancient times, but it was first documented by England’s Sir Francis Bacon (1561–1626) (Figure \(\PageIndex{5}\)), who set up inductive methods for scientific inquiry.

Observation

Scientific advances begin with observations . This involves noticing a pattern, either directly or indirectly from the literature. An example of a direct observation is noticing that there have been a lot of toads in your yard ever since you turned on the sprinklers, where as an indirect observation would be reading a scientific study reporting high densities of toads in urban areas with watered lawns.

During the Vietnam War (figure \(\PageIndex{6}\)), press reports from North Vietnam documented an increasing rate of birth defects. While this credibility of this information was initially questioned by the U.S., it evoked questions about what could be causing these birth defects. Furthermore, increased incidence of certain cancers and other diseases later emerged in Vietnam veterans who had returned to the U.S. This leads us to the next step of the scientific method, the question.

Figure \(\PageIndex{6}\): A map of Vietnam 1954-1975. Image from Bureau of Public Affairs U.S. Government Printing Office (public domain).

The question step of the scientific method is simply asking, what explains the observed pattern? Multiple questions can stem from a single observation. Scientists and the public began to ask, what is causing the birth defects in Vietnam and diseases in Vietnam veterans? Could it be associated with the widespread military use of the herbicide Agent Orange to clear the forests (figure \(\PageIndex{7-8}\)), which helped identify enemies more easily?

Figure \(\PageIndex{7}\): Agent Orange drums in Vietnam. Image by U.S. Government (public domain).

Figure \(\PageIndex{8}\): A healthy mangrove forest (top), and another forest after application of Agent Orange. Image by unknown author (public domain).

Hypothesis and Prediction

The hypothesis is the expected answer to the question. The best hypotheses state the proposed direction of the effect (increases, decreases, etc.) and explain why the hypothesis could be true.

• OK hypothesis: Agent Orange influences rates of birth defects and disease.
• Better hypothesis: Agent Orange increases the incidence of birth defects and disease.
• Best hypothesis: Agent Orange increases the incidence of birth defects and disease because these health problems have been frequently reported by individuals exposed to this herbicide.

If two or more hypotheses meet this standard, the simpler one is preferred.

Predictions stem from the hypothesis. The prediction explains what results would support hypothesis. The prediction is more specific than the hypothesis because it references the details of the experiment. For example, "If Agent Orange causes health problems, then mice experimentally exposed to TCDD, a contaminant of Agent Orange, during development will have more frequent birth defects than control mice" (figure \(\PageIndex{9}\)).

Figure \(\PageIndex{9}\): The chemical structure of TCDD (2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin), which is produced when synthesizing the chemicals in Agent Orange. It contaminates Agent Orange at low but harmful concentrations. Image by Emeldir (public domain).

Hypotheses and predictions must be testable to ensure that it is valid. For example, a hypothesis that depends on what a bear thinks is not testable, because it can never be known what a bear thinks. It should also be falsifiable , meaning that they have the capacity to be tested and demonstrated to be untrue. An example of an unfalsifiable hypothesis is “Botticelli’s Birth of Venus is beautiful.” There is no experiment that might show this statement to be false. To test a hypothesis, a researcher will conduct one or more experiments designed to eliminate one or more of the hypotheses. This is important. A hypothesis can be disproven, or eliminated, but it can never be proven. Science does not deal in proofs like mathematics. If an experiment fails to disprove a hypothesis, then we find support for that explanation, but this is not to say that down the road a better explanation will not be found, or a more carefully designed experiment will be found to falsify the hypothesis.

Hypotheses are tentative explanations and are different from scientific theories. A scientific theory is a widely-accepted, thoroughly tested and confirmed explanation for a set of observations or phenomena. Scientific theory is the foundation of scientific knowledge. In addition, in many scientific disciplines (less so in biology) there are scientific laws , often expressed in mathematical formulas, which describe how elements of nature will behave under certain specific conditions, but they do not offer explanations for why they occur.

Design an Experiment

Next, a scientific study (experiment) is planned to test the hypothesis and determine whether the results match the predictions. Each experiment will have one or more variables. The explanatory variable is what scientists hypothesize might be causing something else. In a manipulative experiment (see below), the explanatory variable is manipulated by the scientist. The response variable is the response, the variable ultimately measured in the study. Controlled variables (confounding factors) might affect the response variable, but they are not the focus of the study. Scientist attempt to standardize the controlled variables so that they do not influence the results. In our previous example, exposure to Agent Orange is the explanatory variable. It is hypothesized to cause a change in health (likelihood of having children with birth defects or developing a disease), the response variable. Many other things could affect health, including diet, exercise, and family history. These are the controlled variables.

There are two main types of scientific studies: experimental studies (manipulative experiments) and observational studies.

In a manipulative experiment , the explanatory variable is altered by the scientists, who then observe the response. In other words, the scientists apply a treatment . An example would be exposing developing mice to TCDD and comparing the rate of birth defects to a control group. The control group is group of test subjects that are as similar as possible to all other test subjects, with the exception that they don’t receive the experimental treatment (those that do receive it are known as the experimental, treatment, or test group ). The purpose of the control group is to establish what the dependent variable would be under normal conditions, in the absence of the experimental treatment. It serves as a baseline to which the test group can be compared. In this example, the control group would contain mice that were not exposed to TCDD but were otherwise handled the same way as the other mice (figure \(\PageIndex{10}\))

Figure \(\PageIndex{10}\): Laboratory mice. In a proper scientific study, the treatment would be applied to multiple mice. Another group of mice would not receive the treatment (the control group). Image by Aaron Logan ( CC-BY ).

In an observational study , scientists examine multiple samples with and without the presumed cause. An example would be monitoring the health of veterans who had varying levels of exposure to Agent Orange.

Scientific studies contain many replicates. Multiple samples ensure that any observed pattern is due to the treatment rather than naturally occurring differences between individuals. A scientific study should also be repeatable , meaning that if it is conducted again, following the same procedure, it should reproduce the same general results. Additionally, multiple studies will ultimately test the same hypothesis.

Finally, the data are collected and the results are analyzed. As described in the Math Blast chapter, statistics can be used to describe the data and summarize data. They also provide a criterion for deciding whether the pattern in the data is strong enough to support the hypothesis.

The manipulative experiment in our example found that mice exposed to high levels of 2,4,5-T (a component of Agent Orange) or TCDD (a contaminant found in Agent Orange) during development had a cleft palate birth defect more frequently than control mice (figure \(\PageIndex{11}\)). Mice embryos were also more likely to die when exposed to TCDD compared to controls.

Figure \(\PageIndex{11}\): Cleft lip and palate, a birth defect in which these structures are split. Image by James Heilman, MD ( CC-BY-SA ).

An observational study found that self-reported exposure to Agent Orange was positively correlated with incidence of multiple diseases in Korean veterans of the Vietnam War, including various cancers, diseases of the cardiovascular and nervous systems, skin diseases, and psychological disorders. Note that a positive correlation simply means that the independent and dependent variables both increase or decrease together, but further data, such as the evidence provided by manipulative experiments is needed to document a cause-and-effect relationship . (A negative correlation occurs when one variable increases as the other decreases.)

Lastly, scientists make a conclusion regarding whether the data support the hypothesis. In the case of Agent Orange, the data, that mice exposed to TCDD and 2,4,5-T had higher frequencies of cleft palate, matches the prediction. Additionally, veterans exposed to Agent Orange had higher rates of certain diseases, further supporting the hypothesis. We can thus accept the hypothesis that Agent Orange increases the incidence of birth defects and disease.

Scientific Method in Practice

In practice, the scientific method is not as rigid and structured as it might first appear. Sometimes an experiment leads to conclusions that favor a change in approach; often, an experiment brings entirely new scientific questions to the puzzle. Many times, science does not operate in a linear fashion; instead, scientists continually draw inferences and make generalizations, finding patterns as their research proceeds (figure \(\PageIndex{12}\)). Even if the hypothesis was supported, scientists may still continue to test it in different ways. For example, scientists explore the impacts of Agent Orange, examining long-term health impacts as Vietnam veterans age.

Scientific findings can influence decision making. In response to evidence regarding the effect of Agent Orange on human health, compensation is now available for Vietnam veterans who were exposed to Agent Orange and develop certain diseases. The use of Agent Orange is also banned in the U.S. Finally, the U.S. has began cleaning sites in Vietnam that are still contaminated with TCDD.

As another simple example, an experiment might be conducted to test the hypothesis that phosphate limits the growth of algae in freshwater ponds. A series of artificial ponds are filled with water and half of them are treated by adding phosphate each week, while the other half are treated by adding a salt that is known not to be used by algae. The variable here is the phosphate (or lack of phosphate), the experimental or treatment cases are the ponds with added phosphate and the control ponds are those with something inert added, such as the salt. Just adding something is also a control against the possibility that adding extra matter to the pond has an effect. If the treated ponds show lesser growth of algae, then we have found support for our hypothesis. If they do not, then we reject our hypothesis. Be aware that rejecting one hypothesis does not determine whether or not the other hypotheses can be accepted; it simply eliminates one hypothesis that is not valid (Figure \(\PageIndex{12}\)). Using the scientific method, the hypotheses that are inconsistent with experimental data are rejected.

Institute of Medicine (US) Committee to Review the Health Effects in Vietnam Veterans of Exposure to Herbicides. Veterans and Agent Orange: Health Effects of Herbicides Used in Vietnam . Washington (DC): National Academies Press (US); 1994. 2, History of the Controversy Over the Use of Herbicides.

Neubert, D., Dillmann, I. Embryotoxic effects in mice treated with 2,4,5-trichlorophenoxyacetic acid and 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin . Naunyn-Schmiedeberg's Arch. Pharmacol. 272, 243–264 (1972).

Stellman, J. M., & Stellman, S. D. (2018). Agent Orange During the Vietnam War: The Lingering Issue of Its Civilian and Military Health Impact . American journal of public health , 108 (6), 726–728.

Yi, S. W., Ohrr, H., Hong, J. S., & Yi, J. J. (2013). Agent Orange exposure and prevalence of self-reported diseases in Korean Vietnam veterans . Journal of preventive medicine and public health = Yebang Uihakhoe chi , 46 (5), 213–225.

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). 1990. Science for All Americans. AAAS, Washington, DC.

Barnes, B. 1985. About Science. Blackwell Ltd ,London, UK.

Giere, R.N. 2005. Understanding Scientific Reasoning. 5th ed. Wadsworth Publishing, New York, NY.

Kuhn, T.S. 1996. The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. 3rd ed. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL.

McCain, G. and E.M. Siegal. 1982. The Game of Science. Holbrook Press Inc., Boston, MA.

Moore, J.A. 1999. Science as a Way of Knowing. Harvard University Press, Boston, MA.

Popper, K. 1979. Objective Knowledge: An Evolutionary Approach. Clarendon Press, Oxford, UK.

Raven, P.H., G.B. Johnson, K.A. Mason, and J. Losos. 2013. Biology. 10th ed. McGraw-Hill, Columbus, OH.

Silver, B.L. 2000. The Ascent of Science. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.

Contributors and Attributions

• Modified by Kyle Whittinghill (University of Pittsburgh)

Samantha Fowler (Clayton State University), Rebecca Roush (Sandhills Community College), James Wise (Hampton University). Original content by OpenStax (CC BY 4.0; Access for free at https://cnx.org/contents/b3c1e1d2-83...4-e119a8aafbdd ).

• Modified by Melissa Ha
• 1.2: The Process of Science by OpenStax , is licensed CC BY
• What is Science? from An Introduction to Geology by Chris Johnson et al. (licensed under CC-BY-NC-SA )
• The Process of Science from Environmental Biology by Matthew R. Fisher (licensed under CC-BY )
• Scientific Methods from Biology by John W. Kimball (licensed under CC-BY )
• Scientific Papers from Biology by John W. Kimball ( CC-BY )
• Environmental Science: A Canadian perspective by Bill Freedman Chapter 2: Science as a Way of Understanding the Natural World

The Scientific Method Tutorial

The scientific method, steps in the scientific method.

There is a great deal of variation in the specific techniques scientists use explore the natural world. However, the following steps characterize the majority of scientific investigations:

Step 1: Make observations Step 2: Propose a hypothesis to explain observations Step 3: Test the hypothesis with further observations or experiments Step 4: Analyze data Step 5: State conclusions about hypothesis based on data analysis

Each of these steps is explained briefly below, and in more detail later in this section.

Step 1: Make observations

A scientific inquiry typically starts with observations. Often, simple observations will trigger a question in the researcher's mind.

Example: A biologist frequently sees monarch caterpillars feeding on milkweed plants, but rarely sees them feeding on other types of plants. She wonders if it is because the caterpillars prefer milkweed over other food choices.

Step 2: Propose a hypothesis

The researcher develops a hypothesis (singular) or hypotheses (plural) to explain these observations. A hypothesis is a tentative explanation of a phenomenon or observation(s) that can be supported or falsified by further observations or experimentation.

Example: The researcher hypothesizes that monarch caterpillars prefer to feed on milkweed compared to other common plants. (Notice how the hypothesis is a statement, not a question as in step 1.)

Step 3: Test the hypothesis

The researcher makes further observations and/or may design an experiment to test the hypothesis. An experiment is a controlled situation created by a researcher to test the validity of a hypothesis. Whether further observations or an experiment is used to test the hypothesis will depend on the nature of the question and the practicality of manipulating the factors involved.

Example: The researcher sets up an experiment in the lab in which a number of monarch caterpillars are given a choice between milkweed and a number of other common plants to feed on.

Step 4: Analyze data

The researcher summarizes and analyzes the information, or data, generated by these further observations or experiments.

Example: In her experiment, milkweed was chosen by caterpillars 9 times out of 10 over all other plant selections.

Step 5: State conclusions

The researcher interprets the results of experiments or observations and forms conclusions about the meaning of these results. These conclusions are generally expressed as probability statements about their hypothesis.

Example: She concludes that when given a choice, 90 percent of monarch caterpillars prefer to feed on milkweed over other common plants.

Often, the results of one scientific study will raise questions that may be addressed in subsequent research. For example, the above study might lead the researcher to wonder why monarchs seem to prefer to feed on milkweed, and she may plan additional experiments to explore this question. For example, perhaps the milkweed has higher nutritional value than other available plants.

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The Scientific Method Flowchart

The steps in the scientific method are presented visually in the following flow chart. The question raised or the results obtained at each step directly determine how the next step will proceed. Following the flow of the arrows, pass the cursor over each blue box. An explanation and example of each step will appear. As you read the example given at each step, see if you can predict what the next step will be.

Activity: Apply the Scientific Method to Everyday Life Use the steps of the scientific method described above to solve a problem in real life. Suppose you come home one evening and flick the light switch only to find that the light doesn’t turn on. What is your hypothesis? How will you test that hypothesis? Based on the result of this test, what are your conclusions? Follow your instructor's directions for submitting your response.

The above flowchart illustrates the logical sequence of conclusions and decisions in a typical scientific study. There are some important points to note about this process:

1. The steps are clearly linked.

The steps in this process are clearly linked. The hypothesis, formed as a potential explanation for the initial observations, becomes the focus of the study. The hypothesis will determine what further observations are needed or what type of experiment should be done to test its validity. The conclusions of the experiment or further observations will either be in agreement with or will contradict the hypothesis. If the results are in agreement with the hypothesis, this does not prove that the hypothesis is true! In scientific terms, it "lends support" to the hypothesis, which will be tested again and again under a variety of circumstances before researchers accept it as a fairly reliable description of reality.

2. The same steps are not followed in all types of research.

The steps described above present a generalized method followed in a many scientific investigations. These steps are not carved in stone. The question the researcher wishes to answer will influence the steps in the method and how they will be carried out. For example, astronomers do not perform many experiments as defined here. They tend to rely on observations to test theories. Biologists and chemists have the ability to change conditions in a test tube and then observe whether the outcome supports or invalidates their starting hypothesis, while astronomers are not able to change the path of Jupiter around the Sun and observe the outcome!

3. Collected observations may lead to the development of theories.

When a large number of observations and/or experimental results have been compiled, and all are consistent with a generalized description of how some element of nature operates, this description is called a theory. Theories are much broader than hypotheses and are supported by a wide range of evidence. Theories are important scientific tools. They provide a context for interpretation of new observations and also suggest experiments to test their own validity. Theories are discussed in more detail in another section.

The Scientific Method in Detail

In the sections that follow, each step in the scientific method is described in more detail.

Step 1: Observations

Observations in science.

An observation is some thing, event, or phenomenon that is noticed or observed. Observations are listed as the first step in the scientific method because they often provide a starting point, a source of questions a researcher may ask. For example, the observation that leaves change color in the fall may lead a researcher to ask why this is so, and to propose a hypothesis to explain this phenomena. In fact, observations also will provide the key to answering the research question.

In science, observations form the foundation of all hypotheses, experiments, and theories. In an experiment, the researcher carefully plans what observations will be made and how they will be recorded. To be accepted, scientific conclusions and theories must be supported by all available observations. If new observations are made which seem to contradict an established theory, that theory will be re-examined and may be revised to explain the new facts. Observations are the nuts and bolts of science that researchers use to piece together a better understanding of nature.

Observations in science are made in a way that can be precisely communicated to (and verified by) other researchers. In many types of studies (especially in chemistry, physics, and biology), quantitative observations are used. A quantitative observation is one that is expressed and recorded as a quantity, using some standard system of measurement. Quantities such as size, volume, weight, time, distance, or a host of others may be measured in scientific studies.

Some observations that researchers need to make may be difficult or impossible to quantify. Take the example of color. Not all individuals perceive color in exactly the same way. Even apart from limiting conditions such as colorblindness, the way two people see and describe the color of a particular flower, for example, will not be the same. Color, as perceived by the human eye, is an example of a qualitative observation.

Qualitative observations note qualities associated with subjects or samples that are not readily measured. Other examples of qualitative observations might be descriptions of mating behaviors, human facial expressions, or "yes/no" type of data, where some factor is present or absent. Though the qualities of an object may be more difficult to describe or measure than any quantities associated with it, every attempt is made to minimize the effects of the subjective perceptions of the researcher in the process. Some types of studies, such as those in the social and behavioral sciences (which deal with highly variable human subjects), may rely heavily on qualitative observations.

Question: Why are observations important to science?

Limits of Observations

Because all observations rely to some degree on the senses (eyes, ears, or steady hand) of the researcher, complete objectivity is impossible. Our human perceptions are limited by the physical abilities of our sense organs and are interpreted according to our understanding of how the world works, which can be influenced by culture, experience, or education. According to science education specialist, George F. Kneller, "Surprising as it may seem, there is no fact that is not colored by our preconceptions" ("A Method of Enquiry," from Science and Its Ways of Knowing [Upper Saddle River: Prentice-Hall Inc., 1997], 15).

Observations made by a scientist are also limited by the sensitivity of whatever equipment he is using. Research findings will be limited at times by the available technology. For example, Italian physicist and philosopher Galileo Galilei (1564–1642) was reportedly the first person to observe the heavens with a telescope. Imagine how it must have felt to him to see the heavens through this amazing new instrument! It opened a window to the stars and planets and allowed new observations undreamed of before.

In the centuries since Galileo, increasingly more powerful telescopes have been devised that dwarf the power of that first device. In the past decade, we have marveled at images from deep space , courtesy of the Hubble Space Telescope, a large telescope that orbits Earth. Because of its view from outside the distorting effects of the atmosphere, the Hubble can look 50 times farther into space than the best earth-bound telescopes, and resolve details a tenth of the size (Seeds, Michael A., Horizons: Exploring the Universe , 5 th ed. [Belmont: Wadsworth Publishing Company, 1998], 86-87).

Construction is underway on a new radio telescope that scientists say will be able to detect electromagnetic waves from the very edges of the universe! This joint U.S.-Mexican project may allow us to ask questions about the origins of the universe and the beginnings of time that we could never have hoped to answer before. Completion of the new telescope is expected by the end of 2001.

Although the amount of detail observed by Galileo and today's astronomers is vastly different, the stars and their relationships have not changed very much. Yet with each technological advance, the level of detail of observation has been increased, and with it, the power to answer more and more challenging questions with greater precision.

Question: What are some of the differences between a casual observation and a 'scientific observation'?

Step 2: The Hypothesis

A hypothesis is a statement created by the researcher as a potential explanation for an observation or phenomena. The hypothesis converts the researcher's original question into a statement that can be used to make predictions about what should be observed if the hypothesis is true. For example, given the hypothesis, "exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation increases the risk of skin cancer," one would predict higher rates of skin cancer among people with greater UV exposure. These predictions could be tested by comparing skin cancer rates among individuals with varying amounts of UV exposure. Note how the hypothesis itself determines what experiments or further observations should be made to test its validity. Results of tests are then compared to predictions from the hypothesis, and conclusions are stated in terms of whether or not the data supports the hypothesis. So the hypothesis serves a guide to the full process of scientific inquiry.

The Qualities of a Good Hypothesis

• A hypothesis must be testable or provide predictions that are testable. It can potentially be shown to be false by further observations or experimentation.
• A hypothesis should be specific. If it is too general it cannot be tested, or tests will have so many variables that the results will be complicated and difficult to interpret. A well-written hypothesis is so specific it actually determines how the experiment should be set up.
• A hypothesis should not include any untested assumptions if they can be avoided. The hypothesis itself may be an assumption that is being tested, but it should be phrased in a way that does not include assumptions that are not tested in the experiment.
• It is okay (and sometimes a good idea) to develop more than one hypothesis to explain a set of observations. Competing hypotheses can often be tested side-by-side in the same experiment.

Question: Why is the hypothesis important to the scientific method?

Step 3: Testing the Hypothesis

A hypothesis may be tested in one of two ways: by making additional observations of a natural situation, or by setting up an experiment. In either case, the hypothesis is used to make predictions, and the observations or experimental data collected are examined to determine if they are consistent or inconsistent with those predictions. Hypothesis testing, especially through experimentation, is at the core of the scientific process. It is how scientists gain a better understanding of how things work.

Testing a Hypothesis by Observation

Some hypotheses may be tested through simple observation. For example, a researcher may formulate the hypothesis that the sun always rises in the east. What might an alternative hypothesis be? If his hypothesis is correct, he would predict that the sun will rise in the east tomorrow. He can easily test such a prediction by rising before dawn and going out to observe the sunrise. If the sun rises in the west, he will have disproved the hypothesis. He will have shown that it does not hold true in every situation. However, if he observes on that morning that the sun does in fact rise in the east, he has not proven the hypothesis. He has made a single observation that is consistent with, or supports, the hypothesis. As a scientist, to confidently state that the sun will always rise in the east, he will want to make many observations, under a variety of circumstances. Note that in this instance no manipulation of circumstance is required to test the hypothesis (i.e., you aren't altering the sun in any way).

Testing a Hypothesis by Experimentation

An experiment is a controlled series of observations designed to test a specific hypothesis. In an experiment, the researcher manipulates factors related to the hypothesis in such a way that the effect of these factors on the observations (data) can be readily measured and compared. Most experiments are an attempt to define a cause-and-effect relationship between two factors or events—to explain why something happens. For example, with the hypothesis "roses planted in sunny areas bloom earlier than those grown in shady areas," the experiment would be testing a cause-and-effect relationship between sunlight and time of blooming.

A major advantage of setting up an experiment versus making observations of what is already available is that it allows the researcher to control all the factors or events related to the hypothesis, so that the true cause of an event can be more easily isolated. In all cases, the hypothesis itself will determine the way the experiment will be set up. For example, suppose my hypothesis is "the weight of an object is proportional to the amount of time it takes to fall a certain distance." How would you test this hypothesis?

The Qualities of a Good Experiment

• The experiment must be conducted on a group of subjects that are narrowly defined and have certain aspects in common. This is the group to which any conclusions must later be confined. (Examples of possible subjects: female cancer patients over age 40, E. coli bacteria, red giant stars, the nicotine molecule and its derivatives.)
• All subjects of the experiment should be (ideally) completely alike in all ways except for the factor or factors that are being tested. Factors that are compared in scientific experiments are called variables. A variable is some aspect of a subject or event that may differ over time or from one group of subjects to another. For example, if a biologist wanted to test the effect of nitrogen on grass growth, he would apply different amounts of nitrogen fertilizer to several plots of grass. The grass in each of the plots should be as alike as possible so that any difference in growth could be attributed to the effect of the nitrogen. For example, all the grass should be of the same species, planted at the same time and at the same density, receive the same amount of water and sunlight, and so on. The variable in this case would be the amount of nitrogen applied to the plants. The researcher would not compare differing amounts of nitrogen across different grass species to determine the effect of nitrogen on grass growth. What is the problem with using different species of plants to compare the effect of nitrogen on plant growth? There are different kinds of variables in an experiment. A factor that the experimenter controls, and changes intentionally to determine if it has an effect, is called an independent variable . A factor that is recorded as data in the experiment, and which is compared across different groups of subjects, is called a dependent variable . In many cases, the value of the dependent variable will be influenced by the value of an independent variable. The goal of the experiment is to determine a cause-and-effect relationship between independent and dependent variables—in this case, an effect of nitrogen on plant growth. In the nitrogen/grass experiment, (1) which factor was the independent variable? (2) Which factor was the dependent variable?
• Nearly all types of experiments require a control group and an experimental group. The control group generally is not changed in any way, but remains in a "natural state," while the experimental group is modified in some way to examine the effect of the variable which of interest to the researcher. The control group provides a standard of comparison for the experimental groups. For example, in new drug trials, some patients are given a placebo while others are given doses of the drug being tested. The placebo serves as a control by showing the effect of no drug treatment on the patients. In research terminology, the experimental groups are often referred to as treatments , since each group is treated differently. In the experimental test of the effect of nitrogen on grass growth, what is the control group? In the example of the nitrogen experiment, what is the purpose of a control group?
• In research studies a great deal of emphasis is placed on repetition. It is essential that an experiment or study include enough subjects or enough observations for the researcher to make valid conclusions. The two main reasons why repetition is important in scientific studies are (1) variation among subjects or samples and (2) measurement error.

Variation among Subjects

There is a great deal of variation in nature. In a group of experimental subjects, much of this variation may have little to do with the variables being studied, but could still affect the outcome of the experiment in unpredicted ways. For example, in an experiment designed to test the effects of alcohol dose levels on reflex time in 18- to 22-year-old males, there would be significant variation among individual responses to various doses of alcohol. Some of this variation might be due to differences in genetic make-up, to varying levels of previous alcohol use, or any number of factors unknown to the researcher.

Because what the researcher wants to discover is average dose level effects for this group, he must run the test on a number of different subjects. Suppose he performed the test on only 10 individuals. Do you think the average response calculated would be the same as the average response of all 18- to 22-year-old males? What if he tests 100 individuals, or 1,000? Do you think the average he comes up with would be the same in each case? Chances are it would not be. So which average would you predict would be most representative of all 18- to 22-year-old males?

A basic rule of statistics is, the more observations you make, the closer the average of those observations will be to the average for the whole population you are interested in. This is because factors that vary among a population tend to occur most commonly in the middle range, and least commonly at the two extremes. Take human height for example. Although you may find a man who is 7 feet tall, or one who is 4 feet tall, most men will fall somewhere between 5 and 6 feet in height. The more men we measure to determine average male height, the less effect those uncommon extreme (tall or short) individuals will tend to impact the average. Thus, one reason why repetition is so important in experiments is that it helps to assure that the conclusions made will be valid not only for the individuals tested, but also for the greater population those individuals represent.

"The use of a sample (or subset) of a population, an event, or some other aspect of nature for an experimental group that is not large enough to be representative of the whole" is called sampling error (Starr, Cecie, Biology: Concepts and Applications , 4 th ed. [Pacific Cove: Brooks/Cole, 2000], glossary). If too few samples or subjects are used in an experiment, the researcher may draw incorrect conclusions about the population those samples or subjects represent.

Use the jellybean activity below to see a simple demonstration of samping error.

Directions: There are 400 jellybeans in the jar. If you could not see the jar and you initially chose 1 green jellybean from the jar, you might assume the jar only contains green jelly beans. The jar actually contains both green and black jellybeans. Use the "pick 1, 5, or 10" buttons to create your samples. For example, use the "pick" buttons now to create samples of 2, 13, and 27 jellybeans. After you take each sample, try to predict the ratio of green to black jellybeans in the jar. How does your prediction of the ratio of green to black jellybeans change as your sample changes?

Measurement Error

The second reason why repetition is necessary in research studies has to do with measurement error. Measurement error may be the fault of the researcher, a slight difference in measuring techniques among one or more technicians, or the result of limitations or glitches in measuring equipment. Even the most careful researcher or the best state-of-the-art equipment will make some mistakes in measuring or recording data. Another way of looking at this is to say that, in any study, some measurements will be more accurate than others will. If the researcher is conscientious and the equipment is good, the majority of measurements will be highly accurate, some will be somewhat inaccurate, and a few may be considerably inaccurate. In this case, the same reasoning used above also applies here: the more measurements taken, the less effect a few inaccurate measurements will have on the overall average.

Step 4: Data Analysis

In any experiment, observations are made, and often, measurements are taken. Measurements and observations recorded in an experiment are referred to as data . The data collected must relate to the hypothesis being tested. Any differences between experimental and control groups must be expressed in some way (often quantitatively) so that the groups may be compared. Graphs and charts are often used to visualize the data and to identify patterns and relationships among the variables.

Statistics is the branch of mathematics that deals with interpretation of data. Data analysis refers to statistical methods of determining whether any differences between the control group and experimental groups are too great to be attributed to chance alone. Although a discussion of statistical methods is beyond the scope of this tutorial, the data analysis step is crucial because it provides a somewhat standardized means for interpreting data. The statistical methods of data analysis used, and the results of those analyses, are always included in the publication of scientific research. This convention limits the subjective aspects of data interpretation and allows scientists to scrutinize the working methods of their peers.

Why is data analysis an important step in the scientific method?

Step 5: Stating Conclusions

The conclusions made in a scientific experiment are particularly important. Often, the conclusion is the only part of a study that gets communicated to the general public. As such, it must be a statement of reality, based upon the results of the experiment. To assure that this is the case, the conclusions made in an experiment must (1) relate back to the hypothesis being tested, (2) be limited to the population under study, and (3) be stated as probabilities.

The hypothesis that is being tested will be compared to the data collected in the experiment. If the experimental results contradict the hypothesis, it is rejected and further testing of that hypothesis under those conditions is not necessary. However, if the hypothesis is not shown to be wrong, that does not conclusively prove that it is right! In scientific terms, the hypothesis is said to be "supported by the data." Further testing will be done to see if the hypothesis is supported under a number of trials and under different conditions.

If the hypothesis holds up to extensive testing then the temptation is to claim that it is correct. However, keep in mind that the number of experiments and observations made will only represent a subset of all the situations in which the hypothesis may potentially be tested. In other words, experimental data will only show part of the picture. There is always the possibility that a further experiment may show the hypothesis to be wrong in some situations. Also, note that the limits of current knowledge and available technologies may prevent a researcher from devising an experiment that would disprove a particular hypothesis.

The researcher must be sure to limit his or her conclusions to apply only to the subjects tested in the study. If a particular species of fish is shown to consume their young 90 percent of the time when raised in captivity, that doesn't necessarily mean that all fish will do so, or that this fish's behavior would be the same in its native habitat.

Finally, the conclusions of the experiment are generally stated as probabilities. A careful scientist would never say, "drug x kills cancer cells;" she would more likely say, "drug x was shown to destroy 85 percent of cancerous skin cells in rats in lab trials." Notice how very different these two statements are. There is a tendency in the media and in the general public to gravitate toward the first statement. This makes a terrific headline and is also easy to interpret; it is absolute. Remember though, in science conclusions must be confined to the population under study; broad generalizations should be avoided. The second statement is sound science. There is data to back it up. Later studies may reveal a more universal effect of the drug on cancerous cells, or they may not. Most researchers would be unwilling to stake their reputations on the first statement.

As a student, you should read and interpret popular press articles about research studies very carefully. From the text, can you determine how the experiment was set up and what variables were measured? Are the observations and data collected appropriate to the hypothesis being tested? Are the conclusions supported by the data? Are the conclusions worded in a scientific context (as probability statements) or are they generalized for dramatic effect? In any researched-based assignment, it is a good idea to refer to the original publication of a study (usually found in professional journals) and to interpret the facts for yourself.

Qualities of a Good Experiment

• narrowly defined subjects
• all subjects treated alike except for the factor or variable being studied
• a control group is used for comparison
• measurements related to the factors being studied are carefully recorded
• enough samples or subjects are used so that conclusions are valid for the population of interest
• conclusions made relate back to the hypothesis, are limited to the population being studied, and are stated in terms of probabilities

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How to Write a Great Hypothesis

Hypothesis Format, Examples, and Tips

Kendra Cherry, MS, is a psychosocial rehabilitation specialist, psychology educator, and author of the "Everything Psychology Book."

Amy Morin, LCSW, is a psychotherapist and international bestselling author. Her books, including "13 Things Mentally Strong People Don't Do," have been translated into more than 40 languages. Her TEDx talk,  "The Secret of Becoming Mentally Strong," is one of the most viewed talks of all time.

Verywell / Alex Dos Diaz

• The Scientific Method

Hypothesis Format

Falsifiability of a hypothesis, operational definitions, types of hypotheses, hypotheses examples.

• Collecting Data

Frequently Asked Questions

A hypothesis is a tentative statement about the relationship between two or more  variables. It is a specific, testable prediction about what you expect to happen in a study.

One hypothesis example would be a study designed to look at the relationship between sleep deprivation and test performance might have a hypothesis that states: "This study is designed to assess the hypothesis that sleep-deprived people will perform worse on a test than individuals who are not sleep-deprived."

This article explores how a hypothesis is used in psychology research, how to write a good hypothesis, and the different types of hypotheses you might use.

The Hypothesis in the Scientific Method

In the scientific method , whether it involves research in psychology, biology, or some other area, a hypothesis represents what the researchers think will happen in an experiment. The scientific method involves the following steps:

• Forming a question
• Performing background research
• Creating a hypothesis
• Designing an experiment
• Collecting data
• Analyzing the results
• Drawing conclusions
• Communicating the results

The hypothesis is a prediction, but it involves more than a guess. Most of the time, the hypothesis begins with a question which is then explored through background research. It is only at this point that researchers begin to develop a testable hypothesis. Unless you are creating an exploratory study, your hypothesis should always explain what you  expect  to happen.

In a study exploring the effects of a particular drug, the hypothesis might be that researchers expect the drug to have some type of effect on the symptoms of a specific illness. In psychology, the hypothesis might focus on how a certain aspect of the environment might influence a particular behavior.

Remember, a hypothesis does not have to be correct. While the hypothesis predicts what the researchers expect to see, the goal of the research is to determine whether this guess is right or wrong. When conducting an experiment, researchers might explore a number of factors to determine which ones might contribute to the ultimate outcome.

In many cases, researchers may find that the results of an experiment  do not  support the original hypothesis. When writing up these results, the researchers might suggest other options that should be explored in future studies.

In many cases, researchers might draw a hypothesis from a specific theory or build on previous research. For example, prior research has shown that stress can impact the immune system. So a researcher might hypothesize: "People with high-stress levels will be more likely to contract a common cold after being exposed to the virus than people who have low-stress levels."

In other instances, researchers might look at commonly held beliefs or folk wisdom. "Birds of a feather flock together" is one example of folk wisdom that a psychologist might try to investigate. The researcher might pose a specific hypothesis that "People tend to select romantic partners who are similar to them in interests and educational level."

Elements of a Good Hypothesis

So how do you write a good hypothesis? When trying to come up with a hypothesis for your research or experiments, ask yourself the following questions:

• Is your hypothesis based on your research on a topic?
• Can your hypothesis be tested?
• Does your hypothesis include independent and dependent variables?

Before you come up with a specific hypothesis, spend some time doing background research. Once you have completed a literature review, start thinking about potential questions you still have. Pay attention to the discussion section in the  journal articles you read . Many authors will suggest questions that still need to be explored.

To form a hypothesis, you should take these steps:

• Collect as many observations about a topic or problem as you can.
• Evaluate these observations and look for possible causes of the problem.
• Create a list of possible explanations that you might want to explore.
• After you have developed some possible hypotheses, think of ways that you could confirm or disprove each hypothesis through experimentation. This is known as falsifiability.

In the scientific method ,  falsifiability is an important part of any valid hypothesis.   In order to test a claim scientifically, it must be possible that the claim could be proven false.

Students sometimes confuse the idea of falsifiability with the idea that it means that something is false, which is not the case. What falsifiability means is that  if  something was false, then it is possible to demonstrate that it is false.

One of the hallmarks of pseudoscience is that it makes claims that cannot be refuted or proven false.

A variable is a factor or element that can be changed and manipulated in ways that are observable and measurable. However, the researcher must also define how the variable will be manipulated and measured in the study.

For example, a researcher might operationally define the variable " test anxiety " as the results of a self-report measure of anxiety experienced during an exam. A "study habits" variable might be defined by the amount of studying that actually occurs as measured by time.

These precise descriptions are important because many things can be measured in a number of different ways. One of the basic principles of any type of scientific research is that the results must be replicable.   By clearly detailing the specifics of how the variables were measured and manipulated, other researchers can better understand the results and repeat the study if needed.

Some variables are more difficult than others to define. How would you operationally define a variable such as aggression ? For obvious ethical reasons, researchers cannot create a situation in which a person behaves aggressively toward others.

In order to measure this variable, the researcher must devise a measurement that assesses aggressive behavior without harming other people. In this situation, the researcher might utilize a simulated task to measure aggressiveness.

Hypothesis Checklist

• Does your hypothesis focus on something that you can actually test?
• Does your hypothesis include both an independent and dependent variable?
• Can you manipulate the variables?
• Can your hypothesis be tested without violating ethical standards?

The hypothesis you use will depend on what you are investigating and hoping to find. Some of the main types of hypotheses that you might use include:

• Simple hypothesis : This type of hypothesis suggests that there is a relationship between one independent variable and one dependent variable.
• Complex hypothesis : This type of hypothesis suggests a relationship between three or more variables, such as two independent variables and a dependent variable.
• Null hypothesis : This hypothesis suggests no relationship exists between two or more variables.
• Alternative hypothesis : This hypothesis states the opposite of the null hypothesis.
• Statistical hypothesis : This hypothesis uses statistical analysis to evaluate a representative sample of the population and then generalizes the findings to the larger group.
• Logical hypothesis : This hypothesis assumes a relationship between variables without collecting data or evidence.

A hypothesis often follows a basic format of "If {this happens} then {this will happen}." One way to structure your hypothesis is to describe what will happen to the  dependent variable  if you change the  independent variable .

The basic format might be: "If {these changes are made to a certain independent variable}, then we will observe {a change in a specific dependent variable}."

A few examples of simple hypotheses:

• "Students who eat breakfast will perform better on a math exam than students who do not eat breakfast."
• Complex hypothesis: "Students who experience test anxiety before an English exam will get lower scores than students who do not experience test anxiety."​
• "Motorists who talk on the phone while driving will be more likely to make errors on a driving course than those who do not talk on the phone."

Examples of a complex hypothesis include:

• "People with high-sugar diets and sedentary activity levels are more likely to develop depression."
• "Younger people who are regularly exposed to green, outdoor areas have better subjective well-being than older adults who have limited exposure to green spaces."

Examples of a null hypothesis include:

• "Children who receive a new reading intervention will have scores different than students who do not receive the intervention."
• "There will be no difference in scores on a memory recall task between children and adults."

Examples of an alternative hypothesis:

• "Children who receive a new reading intervention will perform better than students who did not receive the intervention."
• "Adults will perform better on a memory task than children." 

Collecting Data on Your Hypothesis

Once a researcher has formed a testable hypothesis, the next step is to select a research design and start collecting data. The research method depends largely on exactly what they are studying. There are two basic types of research methods: descriptive research and experimental research.

Descriptive Research Methods

Descriptive research such as  case studies ,  naturalistic observations , and surveys are often used when it would be impossible or difficult to  conduct an experiment . These methods are best used to describe different aspects of a behavior or psychological phenomenon.

Once a researcher has collected data using descriptive methods, a correlational study can then be used to look at how the variables are related. This type of research method might be used to investigate a hypothesis that is difficult to test experimentally.

Experimental Research Methods

Experimental methods  are used to demonstrate causal relationships between variables. In an experiment, the researcher systematically manipulates a variable of interest (known as the independent variable) and measures the effect on another variable (known as the dependent variable).

Unlike correlational studies, which can only be used to determine if there is a relationship between two variables, experimental methods can be used to determine the actual nature of the relationship—whether changes in one variable actually  cause  another to change.

A Word From Verywell

The hypothesis is a critical part of any scientific exploration. It represents what researchers expect to find in a study or experiment. In situations where the hypothesis is unsupported by the research, the research still has value. Such research helps us better understand how different aspects of the natural world relate to one another. It also helps us develop new hypotheses that can then be tested in the future.

Some examples of how to write a hypothesis include:

• "Staying up late will lead to worse test performance the next day."
• "People who consume one apple each day will visit the doctor fewer times each year."
• "Breaking study sessions up into three 20-minute sessions will lead to better test results than a single 60-minute study session."

The four parts of a hypothesis are:

• The research question
• The independent variable (IV)
• The dependent variable (DV)
• The proposed relationship between the IV and DV

Castillo M. The scientific method: a need for something better? . AJNR Am J Neuroradiol. 2013;34(9):1669-71. doi:10.3174/ajnr.A3401

Nevid J. Psychology: Concepts and Applications. Wadworth, 2013.

By Kendra Cherry, MSEd Kendra Cherry, MS, is a psychosocial rehabilitation specialist, psychology educator, and author of the "Everything Psychology Book."

Scientific Method

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The scientific method is a series of steps followed by scientific investigators to answer specific questions about the natural world. It involves making observations, formulating a hypothesis , and conducting scientific experiments . Scientific inquiry starts with an observation followed by the formulation of a question about what has been observed. The steps of the scientific method are as follows:

Observation

The first step of the scientific method involves making an observation about something that interests you. This is very important if you are doing a science project because you want your project to be focused on something that will hold your attention. Your observation can be on anything from plant movement to animal behavior, as long as it is something you really want to know more about.​ This is where you come up with the idea for your science project.

Once you've made your observation, you must formulate a question about what you have observed. Your question should tell what it is that you are trying to discover or accomplish in your experiment. When stating your question you should be as specific as possible.​ For example, if you are doing a project on plants , you may want to know how plants interact with microbes. Your question may be: Do plant spices inhibit bacterial growth ?

The hypothesis is a key component of the scientific process. A hypothesis is an idea that is suggested as an explanation for a natural event, a particular experience, or a specific condition that can be tested through definable experimentation. It states the purpose of your experiment, the variables used, and the predicted outcome of your experiment. It is important to note that a hypothesis must be testable. That means that you should be able to test your hypothesis through experimentation .​ Your hypothesis must either be supported or falsified by your experiment. An example of a good hypothesis is: If there is a relation between listening to music and heart rate, then listening to music will cause a person's resting heart rate to either increase or decrease.

Once you've developed a hypothesis, you must design and conduct an experiment that will test it. You should develop a procedure that states very clearly how you plan to conduct your experiment. It is important that you include and identify a controlled variable or dependent variable in your procedure. Controls allow us to test a single variable in an experiment because they are unchanged. We can then make observations and comparisons between our controls and our independent variables (things that change in the experiment) to develop an accurate conclusion.​

The results are where you report what happened in the experiment. That includes detailing all observations and data made during your experiment. Most people find it easier to visualize the data by charting or graphing the information.​

The final step of the scientific method is developing a conclusion. This is where all of the results from the experiment are analyzed and a determination is reached about the hypothesis. Did the experiment support or reject your hypothesis? If your hypothesis was supported, great. If not, repeat the experiment or think of ways to improve your procedure.

• Six Steps of the Scientific Method
• What Is an Experiment? Definition and Design
• Scientific Method Flow Chart
• Scientific Method Lesson Plan
• How To Design a Science Fair Experiment
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• Biology Science Fair Project Ideas
• Understanding Simple vs Controlled Experiments
• Null Hypothesis Definition and Examples
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Home » What is a Hypothesis – Types, Examples and Writing Guide

What is a Hypothesis – Types, Examples and Writing Guide

Table of Contents

Definition:

Hypothesis is an educated guess or proposed explanation for a phenomenon, based on some initial observations or data. It is a tentative statement that can be tested and potentially proven or disproven through further investigation and experimentation.

Hypothesis is often used in scientific research to guide the design of experiments and the collection and analysis of data. It is an essential element of the scientific method, as it allows researchers to make predictions about the outcome of their experiments and to test those predictions to determine their accuracy.

Types of Hypothesis

Types of Hypothesis are as follows:

Research Hypothesis

A research hypothesis is a statement that predicts a relationship between variables. It is usually formulated as a specific statement that can be tested through research, and it is often used in scientific research to guide the design of experiments.

Null Hypothesis

The null hypothesis is a statement that assumes there is no significant difference or relationship between variables. It is often used as a starting point for testing the research hypothesis, and if the results of the study reject the null hypothesis, it suggests that there is a significant difference or relationship between variables.

Alternative Hypothesis

An alternative hypothesis is a statement that assumes there is a significant difference or relationship between variables. It is often used as an alternative to the null hypothesis and is tested against the null hypothesis to determine which statement is more accurate.

Directional Hypothesis

A directional hypothesis is a statement that predicts the direction of the relationship between variables. For example, a researcher might predict that increasing the amount of exercise will result in a decrease in body weight.

Non-directional Hypothesis

A non-directional hypothesis is a statement that predicts the relationship between variables but does not specify the direction. For example, a researcher might predict that there is a relationship between the amount of exercise and body weight, but they do not specify whether increasing or decreasing exercise will affect body weight.

Statistical Hypothesis

A statistical hypothesis is a statement that assumes a particular statistical model or distribution for the data. It is often used in statistical analysis to test the significance of a particular result.

Composite Hypothesis

A composite hypothesis is a statement that assumes more than one condition or outcome. It can be divided into several sub-hypotheses, each of which represents a different possible outcome.

Empirical Hypothesis

An empirical hypothesis is a statement that is based on observed phenomena or data. It is often used in scientific research to develop theories or models that explain the observed phenomena.

Simple Hypothesis

A simple hypothesis is a statement that assumes only one outcome or condition. It is often used in scientific research to test a single variable or factor.

Complex Hypothesis

A complex hypothesis is a statement that assumes multiple outcomes or conditions. It is often used in scientific research to test the effects of multiple variables or factors on a particular outcome.

Applications of Hypothesis

Hypotheses are used in various fields to guide research and make predictions about the outcomes of experiments or observations. Here are some examples of how hypotheses are applied in different fields:

• Science : In scientific research, hypotheses are used to test the validity of theories and models that explain natural phenomena. For example, a hypothesis might be formulated to test the effects of a particular variable on a natural system, such as the effects of climate change on an ecosystem.
• Medicine : In medical research, hypotheses are used to test the effectiveness of treatments and therapies for specific conditions. For example, a hypothesis might be formulated to test the effects of a new drug on a particular disease.
• Psychology : In psychology, hypotheses are used to test theories and models of human behavior and cognition. For example, a hypothesis might be formulated to test the effects of a particular stimulus on the brain or behavior.
• Sociology : In sociology, hypotheses are used to test theories and models of social phenomena, such as the effects of social structures or institutions on human behavior. For example, a hypothesis might be formulated to test the effects of income inequality on crime rates.
• Business : In business research, hypotheses are used to test the validity of theories and models that explain business phenomena, such as consumer behavior or market trends. For example, a hypothesis might be formulated to test the effects of a new marketing campaign on consumer buying behavior.
• Engineering : In engineering, hypotheses are used to test the effectiveness of new technologies or designs. For example, a hypothesis might be formulated to test the efficiency of a new solar panel design.

How to write a Hypothesis

Here are the steps to follow when writing a hypothesis:

Identify the Research Question

The first step is to identify the research question that you want to answer through your study. This question should be clear, specific, and focused. It should be something that can be investigated empirically and that has some relevance or significance in the field.

Conduct a Literature Review

Before writing your hypothesis, it’s essential to conduct a thorough literature review to understand what is already known about the topic. This will help you to identify the research gap and formulate a hypothesis that builds on existing knowledge.

Determine the Variables

The next step is to identify the variables involved in the research question. A variable is any characteristic or factor that can vary or change. There are two types of variables: independent and dependent. The independent variable is the one that is manipulated or changed by the researcher, while the dependent variable is the one that is measured or observed as a result of the independent variable.

Formulate the Hypothesis

Based on the research question and the variables involved, you can now formulate your hypothesis. A hypothesis should be a clear and concise statement that predicts the relationship between the variables. It should be testable through empirical research and based on existing theory or evidence.

Write the Null Hypothesis

The null hypothesis is the opposite of the alternative hypothesis, which is the hypothesis that you are testing. The null hypothesis states that there is no significant difference or relationship between the variables. It is important to write the null hypothesis because it allows you to compare your results with what would be expected by chance.

Refine the Hypothesis

After formulating the hypothesis, it’s important to refine it and make it more precise. This may involve clarifying the variables, specifying the direction of the relationship, or making the hypothesis more testable.

Examples of Hypothesis

Here are a few examples of hypotheses in different fields:

• Psychology : “Increased exposure to violent video games leads to increased aggressive behavior in adolescents.”
• Biology : “Higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will lead to increased plant growth.”
• Sociology : “Individuals who grow up in households with higher socioeconomic status will have higher levels of education and income as adults.”
• Education : “Implementing a new teaching method will result in higher student achievement scores.”
• Marketing : “Customers who receive a personalized email will be more likely to make a purchase than those who receive a generic email.”
• Physics : “An increase in temperature will cause an increase in the volume of a gas, assuming all other variables remain constant.”
• Medicine : “Consuming a diet high in saturated fats will increase the risk of developing heart disease.”

Purpose of Hypothesis

The purpose of a hypothesis is to provide a testable explanation for an observed phenomenon or a prediction of a future outcome based on existing knowledge or theories. A hypothesis is an essential part of the scientific method and helps to guide the research process by providing a clear focus for investigation. It enables scientists to design experiments or studies to gather evidence and data that can support or refute the proposed explanation or prediction.

The formulation of a hypothesis is based on existing knowledge, observations, and theories, and it should be specific, testable, and falsifiable. A specific hypothesis helps to define the research question, which is important in the research process as it guides the selection of an appropriate research design and methodology. Testability of the hypothesis means that it can be proven or disproven through empirical data collection and analysis. Falsifiability means that the hypothesis should be formulated in such a way that it can be proven wrong if it is incorrect.

In addition to guiding the research process, the testing of hypotheses can lead to new discoveries and advancements in scientific knowledge. When a hypothesis is supported by the data, it can be used to develop new theories or models to explain the observed phenomenon. When a hypothesis is not supported by the data, it can help to refine existing theories or prompt the development of new hypotheses to explain the phenomenon.

When to use Hypothesis

Here are some common situations in which hypotheses are used:

• In scientific research , hypotheses are used to guide the design of experiments and to help researchers make predictions about the outcomes of those experiments.
• In social science research , hypotheses are used to test theories about human behavior, social relationships, and other phenomena.
• I n business , hypotheses can be used to guide decisions about marketing, product development, and other areas. For example, a hypothesis might be that a new product will sell well in a particular market, and this hypothesis can be tested through market research.

Characteristics of Hypothesis

Here are some common characteristics of a hypothesis:

• Testable : A hypothesis must be able to be tested through observation or experimentation. This means that it must be possible to collect data that will either support or refute the hypothesis.
• Falsifiable : A hypothesis must be able to be proven false if it is not supported by the data. If a hypothesis cannot be falsified, then it is not a scientific hypothesis.
• Clear and concise : A hypothesis should be stated in a clear and concise manner so that it can be easily understood and tested.
• Based on existing knowledge : A hypothesis should be based on existing knowledge and research in the field. It should not be based on personal beliefs or opinions.
• Specific : A hypothesis should be specific in terms of the variables being tested and the predicted outcome. This will help to ensure that the research is focused and well-designed.
• Tentative: A hypothesis is a tentative statement or assumption that requires further testing and evidence to be confirmed or refuted. It is not a final conclusion or assertion.
• Relevant : A hypothesis should be relevant to the research question or problem being studied. It should address a gap in knowledge or provide a new perspective on the issue.

Advantages of Hypothesis

Hypotheses have several advantages in scientific research and experimentation:

• Guides research: A hypothesis provides a clear and specific direction for research. It helps to focus the research question, select appropriate methods and variables, and interpret the results.
• Predictive powe r: A hypothesis makes predictions about the outcome of research, which can be tested through experimentation. This allows researchers to evaluate the validity of the hypothesis and make new discoveries.
• Facilitates communication: A hypothesis provides a common language and framework for scientists to communicate with one another about their research. This helps to facilitate the exchange of ideas and promotes collaboration.
• Efficient use of resources: A hypothesis helps researchers to use their time, resources, and funding efficiently by directing them towards specific research questions and methods that are most likely to yield results.
• Provides a basis for further research: A hypothesis that is supported by data provides a basis for further research and exploration. It can lead to new hypotheses, theories, and discoveries.
• Increases objectivity: A hypothesis can help to increase objectivity in research by providing a clear and specific framework for testing and interpreting results. This can reduce bias and increase the reliability of research findings.

Limitations of Hypothesis

Some Limitations of the Hypothesis are as follows:

• Limited to observable phenomena: Hypotheses are limited to observable phenomena and cannot account for unobservable or intangible factors. This means that some research questions may not be amenable to hypothesis testing.
• May be inaccurate or incomplete: Hypotheses are based on existing knowledge and research, which may be incomplete or inaccurate. This can lead to flawed hypotheses and erroneous conclusions.
• May be biased: Hypotheses may be biased by the researcher’s own beliefs, values, or assumptions. This can lead to selective interpretation of data and a lack of objectivity in research.
• Cannot prove causation: A hypothesis can only show a correlation between variables, but it cannot prove causation. This requires further experimentation and analysis.
• Limited to specific contexts: Hypotheses are limited to specific contexts and may not be generalizable to other situations or populations. This means that results may not be applicable in other contexts or may require further testing.
• May be affected by chance : Hypotheses may be affected by chance or random variation, which can obscure or distort the true relationship between variables.

About the author

Muhammad Hassan

Researcher, Academic Writer, Web developer

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The Scientific Method by Science Made Simple

Understanding and using the scientific method.

The Scientific Method is a process used to design and perform experiments. It's important to minimize experimental errors and bias, and increase confidence in the accuracy of your results.

In the previous sections, we talked about how to pick a good topic and specific question to investigate. Now we will discuss how to carry out your investigation.

Steps of the Scientific Method

• Observation/Research
• Experimentation

Now that you have settled on the question you want to ask, it's time to use the Scientific Method to design an experiment to answer that question.

If your experiment isn't designed well, you may not get the correct answer. You may not even get any definitive answer at all!

The Scientific Method is a logical and rational order of steps by which scientists come to conclusions about the world around them. The Scientific Method helps to organize thoughts and procedures so that scientists can be confident in the answers they find.

OBSERVATION is first step, so that you know how you want to go about your research.

HYPOTHESIS is the answer you think you'll find.

PREDICTION is your specific belief about the scientific idea: If my hypothesis is true, then I predict we will discover this.

EXPERIMENT is the tool that you invent to answer the question, and

CONCLUSION is the answer that the experiment gives.

Don't worry, it isn't that complicated. Let's take a closer look at each one of these steps. Then you can understand the tools scientists use for their science experiments, and use them for your own.

OBSERVATION

This step could also be called "research." It is the first stage in understanding the problem.

After you decide on topic, and narrow it down to a specific question, you will need to research everything that you can find about it. You can collect information from your own experiences, books, the internet, or even smaller "unofficial" experiments.

Let's continue the example of a science fair idea about tomatoes in the garden. You like to garden, and notice that some tomatoes are bigger than others and wonder why.

Because of this personal experience and an interest in the problem, you decide to learn more about what makes plants grow.

For this stage of the Scientific Method, it's important to use as many sources as you can find. The more information you have on your science fair topic, the better the design of your experiment is going to be, and the better your science fair project is going to be overall.

Also try to get information from your teachers or librarians, or professionals who know something about your science fair project. They can help to guide you to a solid experimental setup.

The next stage of the Scientific Method is known as the "hypothesis." This word basically means "a possible solution to a problem, based on knowledge and research."

The hypothesis is a simple statement that defines what you think the outcome of your experiment will be.

All of the first stage of the Scientific Method -- the observation, or research stage -- is designed to help you express a problem in a single question ("Does the amount of sunlight in a garden affect tomato size?") and propose an answer to the question based on what you know. The experiment that you will design is done to test the hypothesis.

Using the example of the tomato experiment, here is an example of a hypothesis:

TOPIC: "Does the amount of sunlight a tomato plant receives affect the size of the tomatoes?"

HYPOTHESIS: "I believe that the more sunlight a tomato plant receives, the larger the tomatoes will grow.

This hypothesis is based on:

(1) Tomato plants need sunshine to make food through photosynthesis, and logically, more sun means more food, and;

(2) Through informal, exploratory observations of plants in a garden, those with more sunlight appear to grow bigger.

The hypothesis is your general statement of how you think the scientific phenomenon in question works.

Your prediction lets you get specific -- how will you demonstrate that your hypothesis is true? The experiment that you will design is done to test the prediction.

An important thing to remember during this stage of the scientific method is that once you develop a hypothesis and a prediction, you shouldn't change it, even if the results of your experiment show that you were wrong.

An incorrect prediction does NOT mean that you "failed." It just means that the experiment brought some new facts to light that maybe you hadn't thought about before.

Continuing our tomato plant example, a good prediction would be: Increasing the amount of sunlight tomato plants in my experiment receive will cause an increase in their size compared to identical plants that received the same care but less light.

This is the part of the scientific method that tests your hypothesis. An experiment is a tool that you design to find out if your ideas about your topic are right or wrong.

It is absolutely necessary to design a science fair experiment that will accurately test your hypothesis. The experiment is the most important part of the scientific method. It's the logical process that lets scientists learn about the world.

On the next page, we'll discuss the ways that you can go about designing a science fair experiment idea.

The final step in the scientific method is the conclusion. This is a summary of the experiment's results, and how those results match up to your hypothesis.

You have two options for your conclusions: based on your results, either:

(1) YOU CAN REJECT the hypothesis, or

(2) YOU CAN NOT REJECT the hypothesis.

This is an important point!

You can not PROVE the hypothesis with a single experiment, because there is a chance that you made an error somewhere along the way.

What you can say is that your results SUPPORT the original hypothesis.

If your original hypothesis didn't match up with the final results of your experiment, don't change the hypothesis.

Instead, try to explain what might have been wrong with your original hypothesis. What information were you missing when you made your prediction? What are the possible reasons the hypothesis and experimental results didn't match up?

Remember, a science fair experiment isn't a failure simply because does not agree with your hypothesis. No one will take points off if your prediction wasn't accurate. Many important scientific discoveries were made as a result of experiments gone wrong!

A science fair experiment is only a failure if its design is flawed. A flawed experiment is one that (1) doesn't keep its variables under control, and (2) doesn't sufficiently answer the question that you asked of it.

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1.2 The Scientific Methods

Section learning objectives.

By the end of this section, you will be able to do the following:

• Explain how the methods of science are used to make scientific discoveries
• Define a scientific model and describe examples of physical and mathematical models used in physics
• Compare and contrast hypothesis, theory, and law

Teacher Support

The learning objectives in this section will help your students master the following standards:

• (A) know the definition of science and understand that it has limitations, as specified in subsection (b)(2) of this section;
• (B) know that scientific hypotheses are tentative and testable statements that must be capable of being supported or not supported by observational evidence. Hypotheses of durable explanatory power which have been tested over a wide variety of conditions are incorporated into theories;
• (C) know that scientific theories are based on natural and physical phenomena and are capable of being tested by multiple independent researchers. Unlike hypotheses, scientific theories are well-established and highly-reliable explanations, but may be subject to change as new areas of science and new technologies are developed;
• (D) distinguish between scientific hypotheses and scientific theories.

Section Key Terms

[OL] Pre-assessment for this section could involve students sharing or writing down an anecdote about when they used the methods of science. Then, students could label their thought processes in their anecdote with the appropriate scientific methods. The class could also discuss their definitions of theory and law, both outside and within the context of science.

[OL] It should be noted and possibly mentioned that a scientist , as mentioned in this section, does not necessarily mean a trained scientist. It could be anyone using methods of science.

Scientific Methods

Scientists often plan and carry out investigations to answer questions about the universe around us. These investigations may lead to natural laws. Such laws are intrinsic to the universe, meaning that humans did not create them and cannot change them. We can only discover and understand them. Their discovery is a very human endeavor, with all the elements of mystery, imagination, struggle, triumph, and disappointment inherent in any creative effort. The cornerstone of discovering natural laws is observation. Science must describe the universe as it is, not as we imagine or wish it to be.

We all are curious to some extent. We look around, make generalizations, and try to understand what we see. For example, we look up and wonder whether one type of cloud signals an oncoming storm. As we become serious about exploring nature, we become more organized and formal in collecting and analyzing data. We attempt greater precision, perform controlled experiments (if we can), and write down ideas about how data may be organized. We then formulate models, theories, and laws based on the data we have collected, and communicate those results with others. This, in a nutshell, describes the scientific method that scientists employ to decide scientific issues on the basis of evidence from observation and experiment.

An investigation often begins with a scientist making an observation . The scientist observes a pattern or trend within the natural world. Observation may generate questions that the scientist wishes to answer. Next, the scientist may perform some research about the topic and devise a hypothesis . A hypothesis is a testable statement that describes how something in the natural world works. In essence, a hypothesis is an educated guess that explains something about an observation.

[OL] An educated guess is used throughout this section in describing a hypothesis to combat the tendency to think of a theory as an educated guess.

Scientists may test the hypothesis by performing an experiment . During an experiment, the scientist collects data that will help them learn about the phenomenon they are studying. Then the scientists analyze the results of the experiment (that is, the data), often using statistical, mathematical, and/or graphical methods. From the data analysis, they draw conclusions. They may conclude that their experiment either supports or rejects their hypothesis. If the hypothesis is supported, the scientist usually goes on to test another hypothesis related to the first. If their hypothesis is rejected, they will often then test a new and different hypothesis in their effort to learn more about whatever they are studying.

Scientific processes can be applied to many situations. Let’s say that you try to turn on your car, but it will not start. You have just made an observation! You ask yourself, "Why won’t my car start?" You can now use scientific processes to answer this question. First, you generate a hypothesis such as, "The car won’t start because it has no gasoline in the gas tank." To test this hypothesis, you put gasoline in the car and try to start it again. If the car starts, then your hypothesis is supported by the experiment. If the car does not start, then your hypothesis is rejected. You will then need to think up a new hypothesis to test such as, "My car won’t start because the fuel pump is broken." Hopefully, your investigations lead you to discover why the car won’t start and enable you to fix it.

A model is a representation of something that is often too difficult (or impossible) to study directly. Models can take the form of physical models, equations, computer programs, or simulations—computer graphics/animations. Models are tools that are especially useful in modern physics because they let us visualize phenomena that we normally cannot observe with our senses, such as very small objects or objects that move at high speeds. For example, we can understand the structure of an atom using models, without seeing an atom with our own eyes. Although images of single atoms are now possible, these images are extremely difficult to achieve and are only possible due to the success of our models. The existence of these images is a consequence rather than a source of our understanding of atoms. Models are always approximate, so they are simpler to consider than the real situation; the more complete a model is, the more complicated it must be. Models put the intangible or the extremely complex into human terms that we can visualize, discuss, and hypothesize about.

Scientific models are constructed based on the results of previous experiments. Even still, models often only describe a phenomenon partially or in a few limited situations. Some phenomena are so complex that they may be impossible to model them in their entirety, even using computers. An example is the electron cloud model of the atom in which electrons are moving around the atom’s center in distinct clouds ( Figure 1.12 ), that represent the likelihood of finding an electron in different places. This model helps us to visualize the structure of an atom. However, it does not show us exactly where an electron will be within its cloud at any one particular time.

As mentioned previously, physicists use a variety of models including equations, physical models, computer simulations, etc. For example, three-dimensional models are often commonly used in chemistry and physics to model molecules. Properties other than appearance or location are usually modelled using mathematics, where functions are used to show how these properties relate to one another. Processes such as the formation of a star or the planets, can also be modelled using computer simulations. Once a simulation is correctly programmed based on actual experimental data, the simulation can allow us to view processes that happened in the past or happen too quickly or slowly for us to observe directly. In addition, scientists can also run virtual experiments using computer-based models. In a model of planet formation, for example, the scientist could alter the amount or type of rocks present in space and see how it affects planet formation.

Scientists use models and experimental results to construct explanations of observations or design solutions to problems. For example, one way to make a car more fuel efficient is to reduce the friction or drag caused by air flowing around the moving car. This can be done by designing the body shape of the car to be more aerodynamic, such as by using rounded corners instead of sharp ones. Engineers can then construct physical models of the car body, place them in a wind tunnel, and examine the flow of air around the model. This can also be done mathematically in a computer simulation. The air flow pattern can be analyzed for regions smooth air flow and for eddies that indicate drag. The model of the car body may have to be altered slightly to produce the smoothest pattern of air flow (i.e., the least drag). The pattern with the least drag may be the solution to increasing fuel efficiency of the car. This solution might then be incorporated into the car design.

Using Models and the Scientific Processes

Be sure to secure loose items before opening the window or door.

In this activity, you will learn about scientific models by making a model of how air flows through your classroom or a room in your house.

• One room with at least one window or door that can be opened
• Work with a group of four, as directed by your teacher. Close all of the windows and doors in the room you are working in. Your teacher may assign you a specific window or door to study.
• Before opening any windows or doors, draw a to-scale diagram of your room. First, measure the length and width of your room using the tape measure. Then, transform the measurement using a scale that could fit on your paper, such as 5 centimeters = 1 meter.
• Your teacher will assign you a specific window or door to study air flow. On your diagram, add arrows showing your hypothesis (before opening any windows or doors) of how air will flow through the room when your assigned window or door is opened. Use pencil so that you can easily make changes to your diagram.
• On your diagram, mark four locations where you would like to test air flow in your room. To test for airflow, hold a strip of single ply tissue paper between the thumb and index finger. Note the direction that the paper moves when exposed to the airflow. Then, for each location, predict which way the paper will move if your air flow diagram is correct.
• Now, each member of your group will stand in one of the four selected areas. Each member will test the airflow Agree upon an approximate height at which everyone will hold their papers.
• When you teacher tells you to, open your assigned window and/or door. Each person should note the direction that their paper points immediately after the window or door was opened. Record your results on your diagram.
• Did the airflow test data support or refute the hypothetical model of air flow shown in your diagram? Why or why not? Correct your model based on your experimental evidence.
• With your group, discuss how accurate your model is. What limitations did it have? Write down the limitations that your group agreed upon.
• Yes, you could use your model to predict air flow through a new window. The earlier experiment of air flow would help you model the system more accurately.
• Yes, you could use your model to predict air flow through a new window. The earlier experiment of air flow is not useful for modeling the new system.
• No, you cannot model a system to predict the air flow through a new window. The earlier experiment of air flow would help you model the system more accurately.
• No, you cannot model a system to predict the air flow through a new window. The earlier experiment of air flow is not useful for modeling the new system.

This Snap Lab! has students construct a model of how air flows in their classroom. Each group of four students will create a model of air flow in their classroom using a scale drawing of the room. Then, the groups will test the validity of their model by placing weathervanes that they have constructed around the room and opening a window or door. By observing the weather vanes, students will see how air actually flows through the room from a specific window or door. Students will then correct their model based on their experimental evidence. The following material list is given per group:

• One room with at least one window or door that can be opened (An optimal configuration would be one window or door per group.)
• Several pieces of construction paper (at least four per group)
• Strips of single ply tissue paper
• One tape measure (long enough to measure the dimensions of the room)
• Group size can vary depending on the number of windows/doors available and the number of students in the class.
• The room dimensions could be provided by the teacher. Also, students may need a brief introduction in how to make a drawing to scale.
• This is another opportunity to discuss controlled experiments in terms of why the students should hold the strips of tissue paper at the same height and in the same way. One student could also serve as a control and stand far away from the window/door or in another area that will not receive air flow from the window/door.
• You will probably need to coordinate this when multiple windows or doors are used. Only one window or door should be opened at a time for best results. Between openings, allow a short period (5 minutes) when all windows and doors are closed, if possible.

Answers to the Grasp Check will vary, but the air flow in the new window or door should be based on what the students observed in their experiment.

Scientific Laws and Theories

A scientific law is a description of a pattern in nature that is true in all circumstances that have been studied. That is, physical laws are meant to be universal , meaning that they apply throughout the known universe. Laws are often also concise, whereas theories are more complicated. A law can be expressed in the form of a single sentence or mathematical equation. For example, Newton’s second law of motion , which relates the motion of an object to the force applied ( F ), the mass of the object ( m ), and the object’s acceleration ( a ), is simply stated using the equation

Scientific ideas and explanations that are true in many, but not all situations in the universe are usually called principles . An example is Pascal’s principle , which explains properties of liquids, but not solids or gases. However, the distinction between laws and principles is sometimes not carefully made in science.

A theory is an explanation for patterns in nature that is supported by much scientific evidence and verified multiple times by multiple researchers. While many people confuse theories with educated guesses or hypotheses, theories have withstood more rigorous testing and verification than hypotheses.

[OL] Explain to students that in informal, everyday English the word theory can be used to describe an idea that is possibly true but that has not been proven to be true. This use of the word theory often leads people to think that scientific theories are nothing more than educated guesses. This is not just a misconception among students, but among the general public as well.

As a closing idea about scientific processes, we want to point out that scientific laws and theories, even those that have been supported by experiments for centuries, can still be changed by new discoveries. This is especially true when new technologies emerge that allow us to observe things that were formerly unobservable. Imagine how viewing previously invisible objects with a microscope or viewing Earth for the first time from space may have instantly changed our scientific theories and laws! What discoveries still await us in the future? The constant retesting and perfecting of our scientific laws and theories allows our knowledge of nature to progress. For this reason, many scientists are reluctant to say that their studies prove anything. By saying support instead of prove , it keeps the door open for future discoveries, even if they won’t occur for centuries or even millennia.

[OL] With regard to scientists avoiding using the word prove , the general public knows that science has proven certain things such as that the heart pumps blood and the Earth is round. However, scientists should shy away from using prove because it is impossible to test every single instance and every set of conditions in a system to absolutely prove anything. Using support or similar terminology leaves the door open for further discovery.

Check Your Understanding

• Models are simpler to analyze.
• Models give more accurate results.
• Models provide more reliable predictions.
• Models do not require any computer calculations.
• They are the same.
• A hypothesis has been thoroughly tested and found to be true.
• A hypothesis is a tentative assumption based on what is already known.
• A hypothesis is a broad explanation firmly supported by evidence.
• A scientific model is a representation of something that can be easily studied directly. It is useful for studying things that can be easily analyzed by humans.
• A scientific model is a representation of something that is often too difficult to study directly. It is useful for studying a complex system or systems that humans cannot observe directly.
• A scientific model is a representation of scientific equipment. It is useful for studying working principles of scientific equipment.
• A scientific model is a representation of a laboratory where experiments are performed. It is useful for studying requirements needed inside the laboratory.
• The hypothesis must be validated by scientific experiments.
• The hypothesis must not include any physical quantity.
• The hypothesis must be a short and concise statement.
• The hypothesis must apply to all the situations in the universe.
• A scientific theory is an explanation of natural phenomena that is supported by evidence.
• A scientific theory is an explanation of natural phenomena without the support of evidence.
• A scientific theory is an educated guess about the natural phenomena occurring in nature.
• A scientific theory is an uneducated guess about natural phenomena occurring in nature.
• A hypothesis is an explanation of the natural world with experimental support, while a scientific theory is an educated guess about a natural phenomenon.
• A hypothesis is an educated guess about natural phenomenon, while a scientific theory is an explanation of natural world with experimental support.
• A hypothesis is experimental evidence of a natural phenomenon, while a scientific theory is an explanation of the natural world with experimental support.
• A hypothesis is an explanation of the natural world with experimental support, while a scientific theory is experimental evidence of a natural phenomenon.

Use the Check Your Understanding questions to assess students’ achievement of the section’s learning objectives. If students are struggling with a specific objective, the Check Your Understanding will help identify which objective and direct students to the relevant content.

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Want to cite, share, or modify this book? This book uses the Creative Commons Attribution License and you must attribute Texas Education Agency (TEA). The original material is available at: https://www.texasgateway.org/book/tea-physics . Changes were made to the original material, including updates to art, structure, and other content updates.

Access for free at https://openstax.org/books/physics/pages/1-introduction

• Authors: Paul Peter Urone, Roger Hinrichs
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• Book title: Physics
• Publication date: Mar 26, 2020
• Location: Houston, Texas
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Scientific Consensus

It’s important to remember that scientists always focus on the evidence, not on opinions. Scientific evidence continues to show that human activities ( primarily the human burning of fossil fuels ) have warmed Earth’s surface and its ocean basins, which in turn have continued to impact Earth’s climate . This is based on over a century of scientific evidence forming the structural backbone of today's civilization.

NASA Global Climate Change presents the state of scientific knowledge about climate change while highlighting the role NASA plays in better understanding our home planet. This effort includes citing multiple peer-reviewed studies from research groups across the world, 1 illustrating the accuracy and consensus of research results (in this case, the scientific consensus on climate change) consistent with NASA’s scientific research portfolio.

With that said, multiple studies published in peer-reviewed scientific journals 1 show that climate-warming trends over the past century are extremely likely due to human activities. In addition, most of the leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing this position. The following is a partial list of these organizations, along with links to their published statements and a selection of related resources.

American Scientific Societies

Statement on climate change from 18 scientific associations.

"Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver." (2009) 2

American Association for the Advancement of Science

"Based on well-established evidence, about 97% of climate scientists have concluded that human-caused climate change is happening." (2014) 3

American Chemical Society

"The Earth’s climate is changing in response to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and particulate matter in the atmosphere, largely as the result of human activities." (2016-2019) 4

American Geophysical Union

"Based on extensive scientific evidence, it is extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. There is no alterative explanation supported by convincing evidence." (2019) 5

American Medical Association

"Our AMA ... supports the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s fourth assessment report and concurs with the scientific consensus that the Earth is undergoing adverse global climate change and that anthropogenic contributions are significant." (2019) 6

American Meteorological Society

"Research has found a human influence on the climate of the past several decades ... The IPCC (2013), USGCRP (2017), and USGCRP (2018) indicate that it is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-twentieth century." (2019) 7

American Physical Society

"Earth's changing climate is a critical issue and poses the risk of significant environmental, social and economic disruptions around the globe. While natural sources of climate variability are significant, multiple lines of evidence indicate that human influences have had an increasingly dominant effect on global climate warming observed since the mid-twentieth century." (2015) 8

The Geological Society of America

"The Geological Society of America (GSA) concurs with assessments by the National Academies of Science (2005), the National Research Council (2011), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2013) and the U.S. Global Change Research Program (Melillo et al., 2014) that global climate has warmed in response to increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases ... Human activities (mainly greenhouse-gas emissions) are the dominant cause of the rapid warming since the middle 1900s (IPCC, 2013)." (2015) 9

Science Academies

International academies: joint statement.

"Climate change is real. There will always be uncertainty in understanding a system as complex as the world’s climate. However there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring. The evidence comes from direct measurements of rising surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures and from phenomena such as increases in average global sea levels, retreating glaciers, and changes to many physical and biological systems. It is likely that most of the warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities (IPCC 2001)." (2005, 11 international science academies) 1 0

U.S. National Academy of Sciences

"Scientists have known for some time, from multiple lines of evidence, that humans are changing Earth’s climate, primarily through greenhouse gas emissions." 1 1

U.S. Government Agencies

U.s. global change research program.

"Earth’s climate is now changing faster than at any point in the history of modern civilization, primarily as a result of human activities." (2018, 13 U.S. government departments and agencies) 12

Intergovernmental Bodies

Intergovernmental panel on climate change.

“It is unequivocal that the increase of CO 2 , methane, and nitrous oxide in the atmosphere over the industrial era is the result of human activities and that human influence is the principal driver of many changes observed across the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and biosphere. “Since systematic scientific assessments began in the 1970s, the influence of human activity on the warming of the climate system has evolved from theory to established fact.” 1 3-17

Other Resources

List of worldwide scientific organizations.

The following page lists the nearly 200 worldwide scientific organizations that hold the position that climate change has been caused by human action. http://www.opr.ca.gov/facts/list-of-scientific-organizations.html

U.S. Agencies

The following page contains information on what federal agencies are doing to adapt to climate change. https://www.c2es.org/site/assets/uploads/2012/02/climate-change-adaptation-what-federal-agencies-are-doing.pdf

Technically, a “consensus” is a general agreement of opinion, but the scientific method steers us away from this to an objective framework. In science, facts or observations are explained by a hypothesis (a statement of a possible explanation for some natural phenomenon), which can then be tested and retested until it is refuted (or disproved).

As scientists gather more observations, they will build off one explanation and add details to complete the picture. Eventually, a group of hypotheses might be integrated and generalized into a scientific theory, a scientifically acceptable general principle or body of principles offered to explain phenomena.

1. K. Myers, et al, "Consensus revisited: quantifying scientific agreement on climate change and climate expertise among Earth scientists 10 years later", Environmental Research Letters Vol.16 No. 10, 104030 (20 October 2021); DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/ac2774 M. Lynas, et al, "Greater than 99% consensus on human caused climate change in the peer-reviewed scientific literature", Environmental Research Letters Vol.16 No. 11, 114005 (19 October 2021); DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/ac2966 J. Cook et al., "Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming", Environmental Research Letters Vol. 11 No. 4, (13 April 2016); DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002 J. Cook et al., "Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature", Environmental Research Letters Vol. 8 No. 2, (15 May 2013); DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024 W. R. L. Anderegg, “Expert Credibility in Climate Change”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 107 No. 27, 12107-12109 (21 June 2010); DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1003187107 P. T. Doran & M. K. Zimmerman, "Examining the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change", Eos Transactions American Geophysical Union Vol. 90 Issue 3 (2009), 22; DOI: 10.1029/2009EO030002 N. Oreskes, “Beyond the Ivory Tower: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change”, Science Vol. 306 no. 5702, p. 1686 (3 December 2004); DOI: 10.1126/science.1103618

2. Statement on climate change from 18 scientific associations (2009)

3. AAAS Board Statement on Climate Change (2014)

4. ACS Public Policy Statement: Climate Change (2016-2019)

5. Society Must Address the Growing Climate Crisis Now (2019)

6. Global Climate Change and Human Health (2019)

7. Climate Change: An Information Statement of the American Meteorological Society (2019)

8. American Physical Society (2021)

9. GSA Position Statement on Climate Change (2015)

10. Joint science academies' statement: Global response to climate change (2005)

11. Climate at the National Academies

12. Fourth National Climate Assessment: Volume II (2018)

13. IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, Summary for Policymakers, SPM 1.1 (2014)

14. IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, Summary for Policymakers, SPM 1 (2014)

15. IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group 1 (2021)

16. IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group 2 (2022)

17. IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group 3 (2022)

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Original research article, learning scientific observation with worked examples in a digital learning environment.

• 1 Department Educational Sciences, Chair for Formal and Informal Learning, Technical University Munich School of Social Sciences and Technology, Munich, Germany
• 2 Aquatic Systems Biology Unit, TUM School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany

Science education often aims to increase learners’ acquisition of fundamental principles, such as learning the basic steps of scientific methods. Worked examples (WE) have proven particularly useful for supporting the development of such cognitive schemas and successive actions in order to avoid using up more cognitive resources than are necessary. Therefore, we investigated the extent to which heuristic WE are beneficial for supporting the acquisition of a basic scientific methodological skill—conducting scientific observation. The current study has a one-factorial, quasi-experimental, comparative research design and was conducted as a field experiment. Sixty two students of a German University learned about scientific observation steps during a course on applying a fluvial audit, in which several sections of a river were classified based on specific morphological characteristics. In the two experimental groups scientific observation was supported either via faded WE or via non-faded WE both presented as short videos. The control group did not receive support via WE. We assessed factual and applied knowledge acquisition regarding scientific observation, motivational aspects and cognitive load. The results suggest that WE promoted knowledge application: Learners from both experimental groups were able to perform the individual steps of scientific observation more accurately. Fading of WE did not show any additional advantage compared to the non-faded version in this regard. Furthermore, the descriptive results reveal higher motivation and reduced extraneous cognitive load within the experimental groups, but none of these differences were statistically significant. Our findings add to existing evidence that WE may be useful to establish scientific competences.

1 Introduction

Learning in science education frequently involves the acquisition of basic principles or generalities, whether of domain-specific topics (e.g., applying a mathematical multiplication rule) or of rather universal scientific methodologies (e.g., performing the steps of scientific observation) ( Lunetta et al., 2007 ). Previous research has shown that worked examples (WE) can be considered particularly useful for developing such cognitive schemata during learning to avoid using more cognitive resources than necessary for learning successive actions ( Renkl et al., 2004 ; Renkl, 2017 ). WE consist of the presentation of a problem, consecutive solution steps and the solution itself. This is especially advantageous in initial cognitive skill acquisition, i.e., for novice learners with low prior knowledge ( Kalyuga et al., 2001 ). With growing knowledge, fading WE can lead from example-based learning to independent problem-solving ( Renkl et al., 2002 ). Preliminary work has shown the advantage of WE in specific STEM domains like mathematics ( Booth et al., 2015 ; Barbieri et al., 2021 ), but less studies have investigated their impact on the acquisition of basic scientific competencies that involve heuristic problem-solving processes (scientific argumentation, Schworm and Renkl, 2007 ; Hefter et al., 2014 ; Koenen et al., 2017 ). In the realm of natural sciences, various basic scientific methodologies are employed to acquire knowledge, such as experimentation or scientific observation ( Wellnitz and Mayer, 2013 ). During the pursuit of knowledge through scientific inquiry activities, learners may encounter several challenges and difficulties. Similar to the hurdles faced in experimentation, where understanding the criteria for appropriate experimental design, including the development, measurement, and evaluation of results, is crucial ( Sirum and Humburg, 2011 ; Brownell et al., 2014 ; Dasgupta et al., 2014 ; Deane et al., 2014 ), scientific observation additionally presents its own set of issues. In scientific observation, e.g., the acquisition of new insights may be somewhat incidental due to spontaneous and uncoordinated observations ( Jensen, 2014 ). To address these challenges, it is crucial to provide instructional support, including the use of WE, particularly when observations are carried out in a more self-directed manner.

For this reason, the aim of the present study was to determine the usefulness of digitally presented WE to support the acquisition of a basic scientific methodological skill—conducting scientific observations—using a digital learning environment. In this regard, this study examined the effects of different forms of digitally presented WE (non-faded vs. faded) on students’ cognitive and motivational outcomes and compared them to a control group without WE. Furthermore, the combined perspective of factual and applied knowledge, as well as motivational and cognitive aspects, represent further value added to the study.

2 Theoretical background

2.1 worked examples.

WE have been commonly used in the fields of STEM education (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) ( Booth et al., 2015 ). They consist of a problem statement, the steps to solve the problem, and the solution itself ( Atkinson et al., 2000 ; Renkl et al., 2002 ; Renkl, 2014 ). The success of WE can be explained by their impact on cognitive load (CL) during learning, based on assumptions from Cognitive Load Theory ( Sweller, 2006 ).

Learning with WE is considered time-efficient, effective, and superior to problem-based learning (presentation of the problem without demonstration of solution steps) when it comes to knowledge acquisition and transfer (WE-effect, Atkinson et al., 2000 ; Van Gog et al., 2011 ). Especially WE can help by reducing the extraneous load (presentation and design of the learning material) and, in turn, can lead to an increase in germane load (effort of the learner to understand the learning material) ( Paas et al., 2003 ; Renkl, 2014 ). With regard to intrinsic load (difficulty and complexity of the learning material), it is still controversially discussed if it can be altered by instructional design, e.g., WE ( Gerjets et al., 2004 ). WE have a positive effect on learning and knowledge transfer, especially for novices, as the step-by-step presentation of the solution requires less extraneous mental effort compared to problem-based learning ( Sweller et al., 1998 ; Atkinson et al., 2000 ; Bokosmaty et al., 2015 ). With growing knowledge, WE can lose their advantages (due to the expertise-reversal effect), and scaffolding learning via faded WE might be more successful for knowledge gain and transfer ( Renkl, 2014 ). Faded WE are similar to complete WE, but fade out solution steps as knowledge and competencies grow. Faded WE enhance near-knowledge transfer and reduce errors compared to non-faded WE ( Renkl et al., 2000 ).

In addition, the reduction of intrinsic and extraneous CL by WE also has an impact on learner motivation, such as interest ( Van Gog and Paas, 2006 ). Um et al. (2012) showed that there is a strong positive correlation between germane CL and the motivational aspects of learning, like satisfaction and emotion. Gupta (2019) mentions a positive correlation between CL and interest. Van Harsel et al. (2019) found that WE positively affect learning motivation, while no such effect was found for problem-solving. Furthermore, learning with WE increases the learners’ belief in their competence in completing a task. In addition, fading WE can lead to higher motivation for more experienced learners, while non-faded WE can be particularly motivating for learners without prior knowledge ( Paas et al., 2005 ). In general, fundamental motivational aspects during the learning process, such as situational interest ( Lewalter and Knogler, 2014 ) or motivation-relevant experiences, like basic needs, are influenced by learning environments. At the same time, their use also depends on motivational characteristics of the learning process, such as self-determined motivation ( Deci and Ryan, 2012 ). Therefore, we assume that learning with WE as a relevant component of a learning environment might also influence situational interest and basic needs.

2.1.1 Presentation of worked examples

WE are frequently used in digital learning scenarios ( Renkl, 2014 ). When designing WE, the application via digital learning media can be helpful, as their content can be presented in different ways (video, audio, text, and images), tailored to the needs of the learners, so that individual use is possible according to their own prior knowledge or learning pace ( Mayer, 2001 ). Also, digital media can present relevant information in a timely, motivating, appealing and individualized way and support learning in an effective and needs-oriented way ( Mayer, 2001 ). The advantages of using digital media in designing WE have already been shown in previous studies. Dart et al. (2020) presented WE as short videos (WEV). They report that the use of WEV leads to increased student satisfaction and more positive attitudes. Approximately 90% of the students indicated an active learning approach when learning with the WEV. Furthermore, the results show that students improved their content knowledge through WEV and that they found WEV useful for other courses as well.

Another study ( Kay and Edwards, 2012 ) presented WE as video podcasts. Here, the advantages of WE regarding self-determined learning in terms of learning location, learning time, and learning speed were shown. Learning performance improved significantly after use. The step-by-step, easy-to-understand explanations, the diagrams, and the ability to determine the learning pace by oneself were seen as beneficial.

Multimedia WE can also be enhanced with self-explanation prompts ( Berthold et al., 2009 ). Learning from WE with self-explanation prompts was shown to be superior to other learning methods, such as hypertext learning and observational learning.

In addition to presenting WE in different medial ways, WE can also comprise different content domains.

2.1.2 Content and context of worked examples

Regarding the content of WE, algorithmic and heuristic WE, as well as single-content and double-content WE, can be distinguished ( Reiss et al., 2008 ; Koenen et al., 2017 ; Renkl, 2017 ). Algorithmic WE are traditionally used in the very structured mathematical–physical field. Here, an algorithm with very specific solution steps is to learn, for example, in probability calculation ( Koenen et al., 2017 ). In this study, however, we focus on heuristic double-content WE. Heuristic WE in science education comprise fundamental scientific working methods, e.g., conducting experiments ( Koenen et al., 2017 ). Furthermore, double-content WE contain two learning domains that are relevant for the learning process: (1) the learning domain describes the primarily to be learned abstract process or concept, e.g., scientific methodologies like observation (see section 2.2), while (2) the exemplifying domain consists of the content that is necessary to teach this process or concept, e.g., mapping of river structure ( Renkl et al., 2009 ).

Depending on the WE content to be learned, it may be necessary for learning to take place in different settings. This can be in a formal or informal learning setting or a non-formal field setting. In this study, the focus is on learning scientific observation (learning domain) through river structure mapping (exemplary domain), which takes place with the support of digital media in a formal (university) setting, but in an informal context (nature).

2.2 Scientific observation

Scientific observation is fundamental to all scientific activities and disciplines ( Kohlhauf et al., 2011 ). Scientific observation must be clearly distinguished from everyday observation, where observation is purely a matter of noticing and describing specific characteristics ( Chinn and Malhotra, 2001 ). In contrast to this everyday observation, scientific observation as a method of knowledge acquisition can be described as a rather complex activity, defined as the theory-based, systematic and selective perception of concrete systems and processes without any fundamental manipulation ( Wellnitz and Mayer, 2013 ). Wellnitz and Mayer (2013) described the scientific observation process via six steps: (1) formulation of the research question (s), (2) deduction of the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis, (3) planning of the research design, (4) conducting the observation, (5) analyzing the data, and (6) answering the research question(s) on this basis. Only through reliable and qualified observation, valid data can be obtained that provide solid scientific evidence ( Wellnitz and Mayer, 2013 ).

Since observation activities are not trivial and learners often observe without generating new knowledge or connecting their observations to scientific explanations and thoughts, it is important to provide support at the related cognitive level, so that observation activities can be conducted in a structured way according to pre-defined criteria ( Ford, 2005 ; Eberbach and Crowley, 2009 ). Especially during field-learning experiences, scientific observation is often spontaneous and uncoordinated, whereby random discoveries result in knowledge gain ( Jensen, 2014 ).

To promote successful observing in rather unstructured settings like field trips, instructional support for the observation process seems useful. To guide observation activities, digitally presented WE seem to be an appropriate way to introduce learners to the individual steps of scientific observation using concrete examples.

2.3 Research questions and hypothesis

The present study investigates the effect of digitally presented double-content WE that supports the mapping of a small Bavarian river by demonstrating the steps of scientific observation. In this analysis, we focus on the learning domain of the WE and do not investigate the exemplifying domain in detail. Distinct ways of integrating WE in the digital learning environment (faded WE vs. non-faded WE) are compared with each other and with a control group (no WE). The aim is to examine to what extent differences between those conditions exist with regard to (RQ1) learners’ competence acquisition [acquisition of factual knowledge about the scientific observation method (quantitative data) and practical application of the scientific observation method (quantified qualitative data)], (RQ2) learners’ motivation (situational interest and basic needs), and (RQ3) CL. It is assumed that (Hypothesis 1), the integration of WE (faded and non-faded) leads to significantly higher competence acquisition (factual and applied knowledge), significantly higher motivation and significantly lower extraneous CL as well as higher germane CL during the learning process compared to a learning environment without WE. No differences between the conditions are expected regarding intrinsic CL. Furthermore, it is assumed (Hypothesis 2) that the integration of faded WE leads to significantly higher competence acquisition, significantly higher motivation, and lower extraneous CL as well as higher germane CL during the learning processes compared to non-faded WE. No differences between the conditions are expected with regard to intrinsic CL.

The study took place during the field trips of a university course on the application of a fluvial audit (FA) using the German working aid for mapping the morphology of rivers and their floodplains ( Bayerisches Landesamt für Umwelt, 2019 ). FA is the leading fluvial geomorphological tool for application to data collection contiguously along all watercourses of interest ( Walker et al., 2007 ). It is widely used because it is a key example of environmental conservation and monitoring that needs to be taught to students of selected study programs; thus, knowing about the most effective ways of learning is of high practical relevance.

3.1 Sample and design

3.1.1 sample.

The study was conducted with 62 science students and doctoral students of a German University (age M  = 24.03 years; SD  = 4.20; 36 females; 26 males). A total of 37 participants had already conducted a scientific observation and would rate their knowledge in this regard at a medium level ( M  = 3.32 out of 5; SD  = 0.88). Seven participants had already conducted an FA and would rate their knowledge in this regard at a medium level ( M  = 3.14 out of 5; SD  = 0.90). A total of 25 participants had no experience at all. Two participants had to be excluded from the sample afterward because no posttest results were available.

3.1.2 Design

The study has a 1-factorial quasi-experimental comparative research design and is conducted as a field experiment using a pre/posttest design. Participants were randomly assigned to one of three conditions: no WE ( n  = 20), faded WE ( n  = 20), and non-faded WE ( n  = 20).

3.2 Implementation and material

3.2.1 implementation.

The study started with an online kick-off meeting where two lecturers informed all students within an hour about the basics regarding the assessment of the structural integrity of the study river and the course of the field trip days to conduct an FA. Afterward, within 2 weeks, students self-studied via Moodle the FA following the German standard method according to the scoresheets of Bayerisches Landesamt für Umwelt (2019) . This independent preparation using the online presented documents was a necessary prerequisite for participation in the field days and was checked in the pre-testing. The preparatory online documents included six short videos and four PDF files on the content, guidance on the German protocol of the FA, general information on river landscapes, information about anthropogenic changes in stream morphology and the scoresheets for applying the FA. In these sheets, the river and its floodplain are subdivided into sections of 100 m in length. Each of these sections is evaluated by assessing 21 habitat factors related to flow characteristics and structural variability. The findings are then transferred into a scoring system for the description of structural integrity from 1 (natural) to 7 (highly modified). Habitat factors have a decisive influence on the living conditions of animals and plants in and around rivers. They included, e.g., variability in water depth, stream width, substratum diversity, or diversity of flow velocities.

3.2.2 Materials

On the field trip days, participants were handed a tablet and a paper-based FA worksheet (last accessed 21st September 2022). 1 This four-page assessment sheet was accompanied by a digital learning environment presented on Moodle that instructed the participants on mapping the water body structure and guided the scientific observation method. All three Moodle courses were identical in structure and design; the only difference was the implementation of the WE. Below, the course without WE are described first. The other two courses have an identical structure, but contain additional WE in the form of learning videos.

3.2.3 No worked example

After a short welcome and introduction to the course navigation, the FA started with the description of a short hypothetical scenario: Participants should take the role of an employee of an urban planning office that assesses the ecomorphological status of a small river near a Bavarian city. The river was divided into five sections that had to be mapped separately. The course was structured accordingly. At the beginning of each section, participants had to formulate and write down a research question, and according to hypotheses regarding the ecomorphological status of the river’s section, they had to collect data in this regard via the mapping sheet and then evaluate their data and draw a conclusion. Since this course serves as a control group, no WE videos supporting the scientific observation method were integrated. The layout of the course is structured like a book, where it is not possible to scroll back. This is important insofar as the participants do not have the possibility to revisit information in order to keep the conditions comparable as well as distinguishable.

3.2.4 Non-faded worked example

In the course with no-faded WE, three instructional videos are shown for each of the five sections. In each of the three videos, two steps of the scientific observation method are presented so that, finally, all six steps of scientific observation are demonstrated. The mapping of the first section starts after the general introduction (as described above) with the instruction to work on the first two steps of scientific observation: the formulation of a research question and hypotheses. To support this, a video of about 4 min explains the features of scientific sound research questions and hypotheses. To this aim, a practical example, including explanations and tips, is given regarding the formulation of research questions and hypotheses for this section (e.g., “To what extent does the building development and the closeness of the path to the water body have an influence on the structure of the water body?” Alternative hypothesis: It is assumed that the housing development and the closeness of the path to the water body have a negative influence on the water body structure. Null hypothesis: It is assumed that the housing development and the closeness of the path to the watercourse have no negative influence on the watercourse structure.). Participants should now formulate their own research questions and hypotheses, write them down in a text field at the end of the page, and then skip to the next page. The next two steps of scientific observation, planning and conducting, are explained in a short 4-min video. To this aim, a practical example including explanations and tips is given regarding planning and conducting scientific for this section (e.g., “It’s best to go through each evaluation category carefully one by one that way you are sure not to forget anything!”). Now, participants were asked to collect data for the first section using their paper-based FA worksheet. Participants individually surveyed the river and reported their results in the mapping sheet by ticking the respective boxes in it. After collecting this data, they returned to the digital learning environment to learn how to use these data by studying the last two steps of scientific observation, evaluation, and conclusion. The third 4-min video explained how to evaluate and interpret collected data. For this purpose, a practical example with explanations and tips is given regarding evaluating and interpreting data for this section (e.g., “What were the individual points that led to the assessment? Have there been points that were weighted more than others? Remember the introduction video!”). At the end of the page, participants could answer their before-stated research questions and hypotheses by evaluating their collected data and drawing a conclusion. This brings participants to the end of the first mapping section. Afterward, the cycle begins again with the second section of the river that has to be mapped. Again, participants had to conduct the steps of scientific observation, guided by WE videos, explaining the steps in slightly different wording or with different examples. A total of five sections are mapped, in which the structure of the learning environment and the videos follow the same procedure.

3.2.5 Faded worked example

The digital learning environment with the faded WE follow the same structure as the version with the non-faded WE. However, in this version, the information in the WE videos is successively reduced. In the first section, all three videos are identical to the version with the non-faded WE. In the second section, faded content was presented as follows: the tip at the end was omitted in all three videos. In the third section, the tip and the practical example were omitted. In the fourth and fifth sections, no more videos were presented, only the work instructions.

3.3 Procedure

The data collection took place on four continuous days on the university campus, with a maximum group size of 15 participants on each day. The students were randomly assigned to one of the three conditions (no WE vs. faded WE vs. non-faded WE). After a short introduction to the procedure, the participants were handed the paper-based FA worksheet and one tablet per person. Students scanned the QR code on the first page of the worksheet that opened the pretest questionnaire, which took about 20 min to complete. After completing the questionnaire, the group walked for about 15 min to the nearby small river that was to be mapped. Upon arrival, there was first a short introduction to the digital learning environment and a check that the login (via university account on Moodle) worked. During the next 4 h, the participants individually mapped five segments of the river using the cartography worksheet. They were guided through the steps of scientific observation using the digital learning environment on the tablet. The results of their scientific observation were logged within the digital learning environment. At the end of the digital learning environment, participants were directed to the posttest via a link. After completing the test, the tablets and mapping sheets were returned. Overall, the study took about 5 h per group each day.

3.4 Instruments

In the pretest, sociodemographic data (age and gender), the study domain and the number of study semesters were collected. Additionally, the previous scientific observation experience and the estimation of one’s own ability in this regard were assessed. For example, it was asked whether scientific observation had already been conducted and, if so, how the abilities were rated on a 5-point scale from very low to very high. Preparation for the FA on the basis of the learning material was assessed: Participants were asked whether they had studied all six videos and all four PDF documents, with the response options not at all, partially, and completely. Furthermore, a factual knowledge test about scientific observation and questions about self-determination theory was administered. The posttest used the same knowledge test, and additional questions on basic needs, situational interest, measures of CL and questions about the usefulness of the WE. All scales were presented online, and participants reached the questionnaire via QR code.

3.4.1 Scientific observation competence acquisition

For the factual knowledge (quantitative assessment of the scientific observation competence), a single-choice knowledge test with 12 questions was developed and used as pre- and posttest with a maximum score of 12 points. It assesses the learners’ knowledge of the scientific observation method regarding the steps of scientific observation, e.g., formulating research questions and hypotheses or developing a research design. The questions are based on Wahser (2008 , adapted by Koenen, 2014 ) and adapted to scientific observation: “Although you are sure that you have conducted the scientific observation correctly, an unexpected result turns up. What conclusion can you draw?” Each question has four answer options (one of which is correct) and, in addition, one “I do not know” option.

For the applied knowledge (quantified qualitative assessment of the scientific observation competence), students’ scientific observations written in the digital learning environment were analyzed. A coding scheme was used with the following codes: 0 = insufficient (text field is empty or includes only insufficient key points), 1 = sufficient (a research question and no hypotheses or research question and inappropriate hypotheses are stated), 2 = comprehensive (research question and appropriate hypothesis or research question and hypotheses are stated, but, e.g., incorrect null hypothesis), 3 = very comprehensive (correct research question, hypothesis and null hypothesis are stated). One example of a very comprehensive answer regarding the research question and hypothesis is: To what extent does the lack of riparian vegetation have an impact on water body structure? Hypothesis: The lack of shore vegetation has a negative influence on the water body structure. Null hypothesis: The lack of shore vegetation has no influence on the water body structure. Afterward, a sum score was calculated for each participant. Five times, a research question and hypotheses (steps 1 and 2 in the observation process) had to be formulated (5 × max. 3 points = 15 points), and five times, the research questions and hypotheses had to be answered (steps 5 and 6 in the observation process: evaluation and conclusion) (5 × max. 3 points = 15 points). Overall, participants could reach up to 30 points. Since the observation and evaluation criteria in data collection and analysis were strongly predetermined by the scoresheet, steps 3 and 4 of the observation process (planning and conducting) were not included in the analysis.

All 600 cases (60 participants, each 10 responses to code) were coded by the first author. For verification, 240 cases (24 randomly selected participants, eight from each course) were cross-coded by an external coder. In 206 of the coded cases, the raters agreed. The cases in which the raters did not agree were discussed together, and a solution was found. This results in Cohen’s κ = 0.858, indicating a high to very high level of agreement. This indicates that the category system is clearly formulated and that the individual units of analysis could be correctly assigned.

3.4.2 Self-determination index

For the calculation of the self-determination index (SDI-index), Thomas and Müller (2011) scale for self-determination was used in the pretest. The scale consists of four subscales: intrinsic motivation (five items; e.g., I engage with the workshop content because I enjoy it; reliability of alpha = 0.87), identified motivation (four items; e.g., I engage with the workshop content because it gives me more options when choosing a career; alpha = 0.84), introjected motivation (five items; e.g., I engage with the workshop content because otherwise I would have a guilty feeling; alpha = 0.79), and external motivation (three items, e.g., I engage with the workshop content because I simply have to learn it; alpha = 0.74). Participants could indicate their answers on a 5-point Likert scale ranging from 1 = completely disagree to 5 = completely agree. To calculate the SDI-index, the sum of the self-determined regulation styles (intrinsic and identified) is subtracted from the sum of the external regulation styles (introjected and external), where intrinsic and external regulation are scored two times ( Thomas and Müller, 2011 ).

3.4.3 Motivation

Basic needs were measured in the posttest with the scale by Willems and Lewalter (2011) . The scale consists of three subscales: perceived competence (four items; e.g., during the workshop, I felt that I could meet the requirements; alpha = 0.90), perceived autonomy (five items; e.g., during the workshop, I felt that I had a lot of freedom; alpha = 0.75), and perceived autonomy regarding personal wishes and goals (APWG) (four items; e.g., during the workshop, I felt that the workshop was how I wish it would be; alpha = 0.93). We added all three subscales to one overall basic needs scale (alpha = 0.90). Participants could indicate their answers on a 5-point Likert scale ranging from 1 = completely disagree to 5 = completely agree.

Situational interest was measured in the posttest with the 12-item scale by Lewalter and Knogler (2014 ; Knogler et al., 2015 ; Lewalter, 2020 ; alpha = 0.84). The scale consists of two subscales: catch (six items; e.g., I found the workshop exciting; alpha = 0.81) and hold (six items; e.g., I would like to learn more about parts of the workshop; alpha = 0.80). Participants could indicate their answers on a 5-point Likert scale ranging from 1 = completely disagree to 5 = completely agree.

3.4.4 Cognitive load

In the posttest, CL was used to examine the mental load during the learning process. The intrinsic CL (three items; e.g., this task was very complex; alpha = 0.70) and extraneous CL (three items; e.g., in this task, it is difficult to identify the most important information; alpha = 0.61) are measured with the scales from Klepsch et al. (2017) . The germane CL (two items; e.g., the learning session contained elements that supported me to better understand the learning material; alpha = 0.72) is measured with the scale from Leppink et al. (2013) . Participants could indicate their answers on a 5-point Likert scale ranging from 1 = completely disagree to 5 = completely agree.

3.4.5 Attitudes toward worked examples

To measure how effective participants rated the WE, we used two scales related to the WE videos as instructional support. The first scale from Renkl (2001) relates to the usefulness of WE. The scale consists of four items (e.g., the explanations were helpful; alpha = 0.71). Two items were recoded because they were formulated negatively. The second scale is from Wachsmuth (2020) and relates to the participant’s evaluation of the WE. The scale consists of nine items (e.g., I always did what was explained in the learning videos; alpha = 0.76). Four items were recoded because they were formulated negatively. Participants could indicate their answers on a 5-point Likert scale ranging from 1 = completely disagree to 5 = completely agree.

3.5 Data analysis

An ANOVA was used to calculate if the variable’s prior knowledge and SDI index differed between the three groups. However, as no significant differences between the conditions were found [prior factual knowledge: F (2, 59) = 0.15, p  = 0.865, η 2  = 0.00 self-determination index: F (2, 59) = 0.19, p  = 0.829, η 2  = 0.00], they were not included as covariates in subsequent analyses.

Furthermore, a repeated measure, one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA), was conducted to compare the three treatment groups (no WE vs. faded WE vs. non-faded WE) regarding the increase in factual knowledge about the scientific observation method from pretest to posttest.

A MANOVA (multivariate analysis) was calculated with the three groups (no WE vs. non-faded WE vs. faded WE) as a fixed factor and the dependent variables being the practical application of the scientific observation method (first research question), situational interest, basic needs (second research question), and CL (third research question).

Additionally, to determine differences in applied knowledge even among the three groups, Bonferroni-adjusted post-hoc analyses were conducted.

The descriptive statistics between the three groups in terms of prior factual knowledge about the scientific observation method and the self-determination index are shown in Table 1 . The descriptive statistics revealed only small, non-significant differences between the three groups in terms of factual knowledge.

Table 1 . Means (standard deviations) of factual knowledge tests (pre- and posttest) and self-determination index for the three different groups.

The results of the ANOVA revealed that the overall increase in factual knowledge from pre- to posttest just misses significance [ F (1, 57) = 3.68, p  = 0.060, η 2  = 0 0.06]. Furthermore, no significant differences between the groups were found regarding the acquisition of factual knowledge from pre- to posttest [ F (2, 57) = 2.93, p  = 0.062, η 2  = 0.09].

An analysis of the descriptive statistics showed that the largest differences between the groups were found in applied knowledge (qualitative evaluation) and extraneous load (see Table 2 ).

Table 2 . Means (standard deviations) of dependent variables with the three different groups.

Results of the MANOVA revealed significant overall differences between the three groups [ F (12, 106) = 2.59, p  = 0.005, η 2  = 0.23]. Significant effects were found for the application of knowledge [ F (2, 57) = 13.26, p  = <0.001, η 2  = 0.32]. Extraneous CL just missed significance [ F (2, 57) = 2.68, p  = 0.065, η 2  = 0.09]. There were no significant effects for situational interest [ F (2, 57) = 0.44, p  = 0.644, η 2  = 0.02], basic needs [ F (2, 57) = 1.22, p  = 0.302, η 2  = 0.04], germane CL [ F (2, 57) = 2.68, p  = 0.077, η 2  = 0.09], and intrinsic CL [ F (2, 57) = 0.28, p  = 0.757, η 2  = 0.01].

Bonferroni-adjusted post hoc analysis revealed that the group without WE had significantly lower scores in the evaluation of the applied knowledge than the group with non-faded WE ( p  = <0.001, M diff  = −8.90, 95% CI [−13.47, −4.33]) and then the group with faded WE ( p  = <0.001, M diff  = −7.40, 95% CI [−11.97, −2.83]). No difference was found between the groups with faded and non-faded WE ( p  = 1.00, M diff  = −1.50, 95% CI [−6.07, 3.07]).

The descriptive statistics regarding the perceived usefulness of WE and participants’ evaluation of the WE revealed that the group with the faded WE rated usefulness slightly higher than the participants with non-faded WE and also reported a more positive evaluation. However, the results of a MANOVA revealed no significant overall differences [ F (2, 37) = 0.32, p  = 0.732, η 2  = 0 0.02] (see Table 3 ).

Table 3 . Means (standard deviations) of dependent variables with the three different groups.

5 Discussion

This study investigated the use of WE to support students’ acquisition of science observation. Below, the research questions are answered, and the implications and limitations of the study are discussed.

5.1 Results on factual and applied knowledge

In terms of knowledge gain (RQ1), our findings revealed no significant differences in participants’ results of the factual knowledge test both across all three groups and specifically between the two experimental groups. These results are in contradiction with related literature where WE had a positive impact on knowledge acquisition ( Renkl, 2014 ) and faded WE are considered to be more effective in knowledge acquisition and transfer, in contrast to non-faded WE ( Renkl et al., 2000 ; Renkl, 2014 ). A limitation of the study is the fact that the participants already scored very high on the pretest, so participation in the intervention would likely not yield significant knowledge gains due to ceiling effects ( Staus et al., 2021 ). Yet, nearly half of the students reported being novices in the field prior to the study, suggesting that the difficulty of some test items might have been too low. Here, it would be important to revise the factual knowledge test, e.g., the difficulty of the distractors in further study.

Nevertheless, with regard to application knowledge, the results revealed large significant differences: Participants of the two experimental groups performed better in conducting scientific observation steps than participants of the control group. In the experimental groups, the non-faded WE group performed better than the faded WE group. However, the absence of significant differences between the two experimental groups suggests that faded and non-faded WE used as double-content WE are suitable to teach applied knowledge about scientific observation in the learning domain ( Koenen, 2014 ). Furthermore, our results differ from the findings of Renkl et al. (2000) , in which the faded version led to the highest knowledge transfer. Despite the fact that the non-faded WE performed best in our study, the faded version of the WE was also appropriate to improve learning, confirming the findings of Renkl (2014) and Hesser and Gregory (2015) .

5.2 Results on learners’ motivation

Regarding participants’ motivation (RQ2; situational interest and basic needs), no significant differences were found across all three groups or between the two experimental groups. However, descriptive results reveal slightly higher motivation in the two experimental groups than in the control group. In this regard, our results confirm existing literature on a descriptive level showing that WE lead to higher learning-relevant motivation ( Paas et al., 2005 ; Van Harsel et al., 2019 ). Additionally, both experimental groups rated the usefulness of the WE as high and reported a positive evaluation of the WE. Therefore, we assume that even non-faded WE do not lead to over-instruction. Regarding the descriptive tendency, a larger sample might yield significant results and detect even small effects in future investigations. However, because this study also focused on comprehensive qualitative data analysis, it was not possible to evaluate a larger sample in this study.

5.3 Results on cognitive load

Finally, CL did not vary significantly across all three groups (RQ3). However, differences in extraneous CL just slightly missed significance. In descriptive values, the control group reported the highest extrinsic and lowest germane CL. The faded WE group showed the lowest extrinsic CL and a similar germane CL as the non-faded WE group. These results are consistent with Paas et al. (2003) and Renkl (2014) , reporting that WE can help to reduce the extraneous CL and, in return, lead to an increase in germane CL. Again, these differences were just above the significance level, and it would be advantageous to retest with a larger sample to detect even small effects.

Taken together, our results only partially confirm H1: the integration of WE (both faded and non-faded WE) led to a higher acquisition of application knowledge than the control group without WE, but higher factual knowledge was not found. Furthermore, higher motivation or different CL was found on a descriptive level only. The control group provided the basis for comparison with the treatment in order to investigate if there is an effect at all and, if so, how large the effect is. This is an important point to assess whether the effort of implementing WE is justified. Additionally, regarding H2, our results reveal no significant differences between the two WE conditions. We assume that the high complexity of the FA could play a role in this regard, which might be hard to handle, especially for beginners, so learners could benefit from support throughout (i.e., non-faded WE).

In addition to the limitations already mentioned, it must be noted that only one exemplary topic was investigated, and the sample only consisted of students. Since only the learning domain of the double-content WE was investigated, the exemplifying domain could also be analyzed, or further variables like motivation could be included in further studies. Furthermore, the influence of learners’ prior knowledge on learning with WE could be investigated, as studies have found that WE are particularly beneficial in the initial acquisition of cognitive skills ( Kalyuga et al., 2001 ).

6 Conclusion

Overall, the results of the current study suggest a beneficial role for WE in supporting the application of scientific observation steps. A major implication of these findings is that both faded and non-faded WE should be considered, as no general advantage of faded WE over non-faded WE was found. This information can be used to develop targeted interventions aimed at the support of scientific observation skills.

Data availability statement

The raw data supporting the conclusions of this article will be made available by the authors, without undue reservation.

Ethics statement

Ethical approval was not required for the study involving human participants in accordance with the local legislation and institutional requirements. Written informed consent to participate in this study was not required from the participants in accordance with the national legislation and the institutional requirements.

Author contributions

ML: Writing – original draft. SM: Writing – review & editing. JP: Writing – review & editing. JG: Writing – review & editing. DL: Writing – review & editing.

The author(s) declare that no financial support was received for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Publisher’s note

All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article, or claim that may be made by its manufacturer, is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.

Supplementary material

The Supplementary material for this article can be found online at: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feduc.2024.1293516/full#supplementary-material

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Keywords: digital media, worked examples, scientific observation, motivation, cognitive load

Citation: Lechner M, Moser S, Pander J, Geist J and Lewalter D (2024) Learning scientific observation with worked examples in a digital learning environment. Front. Educ . 9:1293516. doi: 10.3389/feduc.2024.1293516

Received: 13 September 2023; Accepted: 29 February 2024; Published: 18 March 2024.

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*Correspondence: Miriam Lechner, [email protected]