third world war essay

George Friedman on World War III

The geopolitical scientist predicts which nations will be fighting for world power in 2050

Terence Monmaney

George Friedman holds a doctorate in government from Cornell University and is the founder and chief executive of Stratfor, a geopolitical consulting firm in Austin, Texas. His most recent book is The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century . He spoke with Terence Monmaney.

Commentators have declared the end of American dominance. You disagree. Why? The 20th century wasn’t the American century. In the first half of the century, the United States was a peripheral player—marginal to what was happening. From 1945 to 1991, the United States was caught in a terrific conflict with the Soviet Union. The United States has been the sole global power [only] since 1991, less than 20 years. People say China is emerging as a power. The U.S. economy is roughly three times larger than China’s. That’s a $10 trillion difference. Twenty-five percent of the world’s economic activity happens in the United States. The U.S. Navy controls all the oceans. We are an order of magnitude more powerful than anyone else. Undermining that kind of power can happen, but it normally takes wars, and it certainly takes generations.

You posit a third world war starting in 2050. My expectation is we’re going to see a fragmentation in China because of internal social stresses, and the weakening of Russia. Three powers are emerging on the periphery of Eurasia. One is Japan, which is truly the center of gravity of Asia; it’s the second-largest economy in the world. Unlike China, Japan does not have a billion people living in sub-Saharan-type poverty. It is unified. It has the largest navy in Asia. Second is Turkey, now the 17th- largest economy in the world and the largest Islamic economy. And whenever Islam emerges into a coherent political entity, which it hasn’t done for a century, Turkey is almost invariably at its center. Turkey has by far the most powerful and effective military in Europe and is going to be a major Mediterranean power. The third country is Poland. Few people know that Poland is the 21st-largest economy in the world, the 8th-largest in Europe, and by far the most dynamic. It is also a country very much afraid of Germany and Russia. Russia is right now in the process of rebuilding itself. This makes the Poles very uneasy. The Germans are reaching out to the Russians. Poland feels trapped.

Japan is utterly dependent on the sea lanes for the import and export of products. And those sea lanes are controlled by the United States. The United States controls the oceans, and its view is that that is the foundation of its national security. As Japan and Turkey become greater maritime powers, the United States will become hostile toward them. Japan and Turkey each wants to be a maritime power and each sees the U.S. as a threat. Poland has no interest in being a maritime power. It’s afraid of Turkey, and interested in the U.S. There’s a natural coalition.

The center of gravity of American military power is in space. Everything from navigation to communication to intelligence satellites operate in space. If any power were to knock out the United States, it would have to knock out those assets. If the Japanese and Turks were to take on the United States, that would be the place they would have to strike first, to blind us, to cripple us. I would expect the war to start there. It seems like science fiction, but one wonders how somebody in 1900 would have felt about a description of what World War II was going to be like.

The details may not be as I say—there may be other players, it may not happen in 2050—but every century has a war. The 21st century is not going to be the first century without major warfare.

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Terence Monmaney is an executive editor of Smithsonian magazine.

How to prevent World War 3

In the past 100 years we have learned a great deal about how to prevent conflict Image:  REUTERS/Olivia Harris

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"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones." – Albert Einstein

Since the ‘war to end all wars’ − as H G Wells so wrongly predicted a century ago − the world has seen the ‘peace to end all peace’ lead to the horrors of the second world war, proxy wars through the Cold War and, today, violent conflicts that increasingly affect civilians disproportionately and cross the red lines laid by the laws of armed conflict. The machinery of war and the available firepower has increased dramatically. The risks of a third world war are enormous. If we add in all the means and methods of warfare − conventional, nuclear, cyber, drones, and so on − we have the military potential to destroy ourselves entirely.

Violence is raging in the Middle East, Europe and Russia are poised on the edge of conflict over Ukraine, the United States is once more engaged in military action in Iraq and, as NATO pulls out, Afghanistan is vulnerable. Other flashpoints over disputed islands in the South China Sea, tensions on the Korean peninsula and over Kashmir are just some of the easily identified points of escalation.

In the past 100 years, we have, however, learned a great deal about how to prevent conflict. After the Second World War, we established the United Nations with the primary purpose of saving succeeding generations from the scourge of war. The European Union grew over decades from a trade treaty to an organization that won the Nobel Peace Prize for its part in transforming Europe from a continent of war to a continent of peace. NATO has had its part to play in shoring up the transatlantic alliance that bonded many European countries in a common cause. Today war between Germany and France is almost impossible to imagine.

Other regional organizations have been established in Africa, Asia, the South Pacific and the Americas. International bodies have been established to implement disarmament and security treaties and civil society expertise has been channeled through universities and think tanks − including Chatham House, conceived in 1919 with a view to preventing future wars.

According to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, 254 armed conflicts have been fought since 1946 of which 114 are classed as wars (defined as more than one thousand battle-related deaths per annum). Since the end of the Cold War, the numbers of armed conflicts have dropped dramatically. Of the 33 armed conflicts listed in 2013, only seven were classed as wars – a 50% reduction since 1989.

Many factors have supported the reduction in armed conflicts including the withering of proxy wars, UN sponsored peace processes and economic development. Research by the Human Security Report demonstrates that peace negotiations and cease-fire agreements reduce violent conflict even when they fail.

Six peace agreements were signed in 2013 and four were agreed in 2012. Over recent years, despite common perceptions, we do seem to have learned how to create, keep and enforce the peace.

The laws of armed conflict and human rights laws along with the international criminal court, war crime tribunals, economic and military sanctions and domestic justice commissions serve to protect civilians. Although nuclear weapons possession or use, outlawed for most countries, are yet to be globally forbidden, international law has proscribed the possession and use of devastating weapons systems such as chemical and biological weapons, antipersonnel landmines, cluster munitions and blinding lasers.

Academic disciplines that study war and peace have developed a rich body of research that helps us understand how wars start and how they can be prevented or ended. No approach or system is perfect, of course, but we understand how resource scarcity, environmental change, economic stress, refugee flows and racism all fuel the engendering of conflict. We understand the importance of history and culture, the role of gender and the ways in which different political systems exacerbate or diminish the risks of conflict.

Have you read?

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In a study for the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) , Chatham House and FRIDE predicted that the world in 2030 will be more fragile and governments and international institutions will struggle to cope with the twin trends of increased interdependence and greater fragmentation. Most significantly, we realized that the risks of inter-state wars are rising and a major inter-state war cannot be ruled out in the near future.

In the lead up to the First World War, many foolishly imagined that Europe was ‘too civilized’ to go to war. Prior to the Second World War people hoped that the aggression from Nazi Germany could be contained. In so many cases of war, we tend to be overly optimistic about the length of time (‘we’ll be home by Christmas’), the scale and the outcome of the conflict.

It is time that we put aside complacency and become more realistic about war and peace and ourselves. We know a great deal about how to prevent war. We owe it to all others who sacrificed their lives and families to put into action all that we have learned and ensure peace in Europe, the Middle East and Asia for forthcoming generations. Otherwise, there will be few left to hear our excuses.

How to Prevent the Third World War , Patricia Lewis, Chatham House

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Bret Stephens

This Is How World War III Begins

By Bret Stephens

Opinion Columnist

The usual date given for the start of World War II is Sept. 1, 1939, when Hitler invaded Poland after the signing of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. But that was just one in a series of events that at the time could have seemed disconnected.

Among them: Japan’s invasion of Manchuria in 1931. Italy’s invasion of Abyssinia in 1935. The remilitarization of the Rhineland in 1936 and the Spanish Civil War, which started the same year. Anschluss with Austria and the Sudeten crisis of 1938. The Soviet invasion of Poland weeks after the German one and Germany’s western invasions the following year. Operation Barbarossa and Pearl Harbor in 1941.

The point is, World War II didn’t so much begin as it gathered, like water rising until it breaches a dam. We, too, have been living through years of rising waters, though it took Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for much of the world to notice.

Before the invasion, we had the Russian invasions of Georgia, Crimea and eastern Ukraine; the Russian carpet bombing of Aleppo; the use of exotic radioactive and chemical agents against Russian dissidents on British soil; Russian interference in U.S. elections and massive hacks of our computer networks; the murder of Boris Nemtsov and the blatant poisoning and imprisonment of Alexei Navalny.

Were any of these sovereignty violations, legal violations, treaty violations, war crimes and crimes against humanity met with a strong, united, punitive response that could have averted the next round of outrages? Did Western responses to other violations of global norms — Syria’s use of chemical weapons against civilians, Beijing’s eradication of Hong Kong’s autonomy, Iran’s war by proxy against its neighbors — give Vladimir Putin pause?

In short, did Putin have any reason to think, before Feb. 24, that he wouldn’t be able to get away with his invasion?

He didn’t. Contrary to the claim that Putin’s behavior is a result of Western provocation — like refusing to absolutely rule out eventual NATO membership for Ukraine — the West has mainly spent 22 years placating Putin through a long cycle of resets and wrist slaps. The devastation of Ukraine is the fruit of this appeasement.

The Biden administration now faces the question of whether it wants to bring this cycle to an end. The answer isn’t clear. Sanctions have hurt the Russian economy, arms shipments to Ukraine have helped to slow the Russian advance, and Russia’s brutality has unified NATO. This is to the president’s credit.

But the administration continues to operate under a series of potentially catastrophic illusions.

Sanctions may devastate Russia in the long term. But the immediate struggle in Ukraine is short term. Insofar as one of the main effects of sanctions has been to send tens of thousands of middle-class Russians into exile, they actually help Putin by weakening a potent base of political opposition. As for the oligarchs, they might have lost their yachts, but they’re not about to pick up their guns.

Arming Ukraine with Javelin and Stinger missiles has wounded and embarrassed the Russian military. Providing Kyiv with MIG-29 fighter jets and other potentially game-changing weapon systems could help turn the tide. Refusing to do so may only prolong Ukraine’s agony.

Frequent suggestions that Putin has already lost the war or that he can’t possibly win when Ukrainians are united in their hatred for him or that he’s looking for an offramp — and that we should be thinking up ingenious ways to provide him with one — may turn out to be right. But they are grossly premature. This war is only in its third week; it took the Nazis longer to conquer Poland. The ability to subdue a restive population is chiefly a function of the pain an occupier is willing to inflict. For a primer on that, look at what Putin did to Grozny in his first year in office.

Refusing to impose a no-fly zone in Ukraine may be justified because it exceeds the risks NATO countries are prepared to tolerate. But the idea that doing so could start World War III ignores history and telegraphs weakness. Americans squared off with Soviet pilots operating under Chinese or North Korean cover in the Korean War without blowing up the world. And our vocal aversion to confrontation is an invitation, not a deterrent, to Russian escalation.

There is now a serious risk that these illusions could collapse very suddenly. There’s little evidence so far that Putin is eager to cut his losses; on the contrary, to do so now — after incurring the economic price of sanctions but without achieving a clear victory — would jeopardize his grip on power.

Bottom line: Expect him to double down. If he uses chemical weapons, as Bashar al-Assad did, or deploys a battlefield nuclear weapon, in keeping with longstanding Russian military doctrine , does he lose more than he gains? The question answers itself. He wins swiftly. He terrifies the West. He consolidates power. He suffers consequences only marginally graver than the ones already inflicted. And his fellow travelers in Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang take note.

How does the next world war begin? The same way the last one did.

The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips . And here’s our email: [email protected] .

Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook , Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram .

Bret Stephens has been an Opinion columnist with The Times since April 2017. He won a Pulitzer Prize for commentary at The Wall Street Journal in 2013 and was previously editor in chief of The Jerusalem Post. Facebook

• International Security

Can a Third World War Be Prevented?

• Carl-Friedrich von Weiszäcker
• The MIT Press
• Volume 5, Number 1, Summer 1980
• pp. 198-205
• View Citation

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AZ Writing | Sample Essays, Example Research Papers and Tips

Free essay samples, research paper examples and academic writing tips for students

Essay: Can We Prevent Third World War?

The Third World War is one the most widely spoken topics of the latest 50 years. Do you believe in the probability of the third global military conflict? Why is this conflict dangerous? Will our planet survive? These questions bother billions of people inasmuch as every day we hear about numerous conflicts in different parts of the world. Every day hundreds of people die because of explosions and shots. Every day thousands of people fight against one another trying to defend or conquer a territory.

The ghost of war has become very close. People are afraid of the global military conflict that can arise because of various international disagreements and quarrels. The latest events in Syria and Ukraine look like the actual signals and alarming indicators of the Third World War.

When World War 2 was over, people understood that they must not repeat the same mistakes again. Nearly every European country lost at least one million citizens. Such countries as Poland and Germany lost about 6 million people. The USSR lost about 25 million people. You can see that the number of victims is enormous. Millions of families were ruined. Millions of children lost their parents and happy childhood. In addition, that war is associated with such inhumane inventions as concentration camps and new kinds of weapons. Millions of people were tortured and murdered. Without doubt, 1939-1945 were the most violent and insane years of the entire human history. There is hardly a prudent person in the world who wants to experience the fears of war on her skin. No wonder, the global community established the UNO to maintain peace on Earth and avoid any other military conflicts of such scopes.

After World War 2, the planet was under the threat of another global conflict. Fortunately, this conflict limited to the political tension between the USSR and the Western Bloc. The tension was known as the Cold War. This conflict was very stressful, because both parties possessed nuclear weapon. They could destroy each other several times. Due to the sober minds of both sides, the weapon of mass destruction was not used. Nowadays, the situation repeats forasmuch as Russia and its allies demonstrate their force to NATO. The world lives in exaptation of the Third World War.

I suppose that we do not need to live in constant fear, because we are able to prevent World War 3 easily. We differ from our parent and grandparents. We have the access to information and technologies.

I agree to the statement “Who owns the information, he rules the world”, because we cannot be cheated anymore. We are able to read and watch live news about the situation in every part of the world. The government of any country cannot distort and alter this information, because we are able to check it immediately. People possess smartphones and cameras and they can make audio and video records of the events taking place in their areas. For example, when the troops and military vehicles of another country cross the border of a state, the local people can film it. The invader will not be able to make any excuses pretending that nothing has happened. Scientific and technological progress has provided people with the access towards Truth.

Although young people are supposed to belong to the so-called ‘egotistic’ generation, I see many pluses in this statement. Such ‘egotistic’ and ambitious people respect themselves possessing dignity and self-esteem. They will not let anyone cheat them. They will not tolerate violation of their rights.

Everyone is the master of his own destiny, thus he will not join the army just because his government has ordered him to do so. Such young egotists will protest against any unfair military conflicts and they will not participate in them. Everyone realizes that war is the best method of earning money whereas very few conflicts occur on the religious or ethical background.

Ultimately, it is possible to prevent the Third World War if our society takes an active stance on this problem. We should keep abreast of the latest events in the world and react to any haphazard actions of our government radically.

This is a free sample essay only. If you need a custom written essay about the Third World at an affordable cost, you should visit this link: https://cheapwritinghelp.com/essays.html .

Are we heading for World War Three?

Doomsday pendulum swings back towards Middle East after Iran crosses red line in bombarding Israeli territory

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Iran's drone and missile attacks on Israel over the weekend risk setting off a chain of events that could lead to all-out war between the regional rivals in the Middle East.

"All eyes" are now on Israel's response, said the BBC 's security correspondent Frank Gardner. Many governments are "working around the clock" to avoid a wider war in the region. 

Parallels being drawn with the lead-up to World War One may be overblown, said The Washington Post columnist David Ignatius. But "it's a moment that eerily evokes the dynamics of summer 1914, when a war that every power sought to avoid suddenly appeared inevitable, with consequences that no one could predict".

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Middle East

For decades, Israel and Iran have been engaged in a "shadow war" said Foreign Affairs . Attacks by Iran's proxy groups , most recently on ships in the Red Sea, have been part of wider efforts by Tehran to oppose Israel, end its war in Gaza and supplant the US (and, to a lesser extent, Saudi Arabia) as the foremost power in the Middle East.

Iran's first direct military attack on Israel has, however, changed the "strategic reality" of the region, said The Wall Street Journal 's Yaroslav Trofimov, chief foreign-affairs correspondent.

Iran's attack signals a "new phase", Nadav Pollak, a former Israeli government analyst teaching at Reichman University, told Trofimov. Tehran is no longer "hiding behind proxies". It is now "exposed to a direct attack from Israel. Going forward, Israel is not going to be able to sit quietly and intercept everything."

US officials "hope that any exchange between Iran and Israel will be short and contained – and won't draw in other powers", said The Washington Post 's Ignatius. "But they truly don't know what's ahead."

Israel's war cabinet is now faced with "two good options" for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu , said Politico. He may be "tempted" to tell US President Joe Biden that he can keep the situation with Iran "under control" – provided Washington supports Israel's planned offensive against Rafah, said The New Statesman . 

The alternative would be a direct attack on Iran, said Politico . That would be a "huge undertaking for Israel alone". And the US is "signalling that it wants to avoid that conflagration".

If the US were to get drawn into a confrontation with Iran it could "divide, perhaps permanently", the Western democracies that would back Washington (such as the UK), and those who "might sensibly prioritise renewed diplomatic outreach to Tehran", said Simon Tisdall in The Guardian in January.

Another concern, Ali Vaez, an Iran expert at Crisis Group, told the Financial Times in February, is that "Tehran will turn to another avenue to up the stakes with the US – its nuclear programme".

Russia's invasion of Ukraine was described as "more dangerous than anything Europe has seen since the end of World War Two" by Politico in March 2022, then a matter of weeks into the conflict.

It has triggered the "worst crisis in Russia's relations with the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis", said the Daily Mail . "Even talk of a confrontation between Russia and Nato – a Cold War nightmare of leaders and populations alike – indicates the dangers of escalation as the West grapples with a resurgent Russia 32 years after the 1991 fall of the Soviet Union."

With some European leaders thought to be tiring of the conflict, now in its third year, and resistance to open-ended financial support growing in Washington, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that failure to fend off Russia's aggression could spiral into confrontation with Nato . "And that certainly means the Third World War," Zelensky said in January.

Last month a Russian cruise missile violated Nato airspace less than a week after Putin warned that a direct confrontation between Russia and the Western military alliance would be "one step away from a full-scale World War Three", said Time .

If Putin remains "undeterred" in Ukraine, he will "almost certainly try his luck" in the Baltics , said Dominic Waghorn, Sky News 's international affairs editor – "because he will assume the alliance is too spineless to stop him". That view would likely be reinforced if Donald Trump were to carry through with his threats to pull America out of Nato if he wins the US presidential election in November.

It has long been assumed that the greatest threat to geopolitical stability is the growing tension between China and the US in recent years. A slight thawing led to a meeting between Presidents Xi Jinping and Biden in November, but core issues remain – most notably, over Taiwan and the question of its sovereignty .

Beijing sees the island nation as an integral part of a unified Chinese territory. It has, in recent years, adopted an increasingly aggressive stance towards the island and its ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which it has denounced as dangerous separatists. At the same time, the US has ramped up its support – financially, militarily and rhetorically – for Taiwan's continued independence.

In response to the DPP's re-election in January for an unprecedented third term, China's Communist Party has "sharpened its rhetoric towards Taiwan , raising the pressure on the country as its president-elect Lai Ching-te prepares to take office in May", said the Financial Times . 

China's most senior official in charge of Taiwan policy, other than Xi himself, told an annual meeting of the Communist Party that Beijing "must resolutely fight 'Taiwan independence' separatism" and "further grasp the strategic initiative to achieve the complete unification of the motherland".

While most experts agree an imminent escalation is not on the cards, any invasion "would be one of the most dangerous and consequential events of the 21st century", said The Times last April. It would "make the Russian attack on Ukraine look like a sideshow by comparison".

Human costs aside, a military conflict between the world's two biggest economies would lead to "a severing of global supply chains, a blow to confidence and crashing asset prices", said The Guardian 's economics editor Larry Elliott. "It would have catastrophic economic consequences, up to and including a second Great Depression."

North Korea

Since talks with Trump in 2019 broke down over disagreements about international sanctions on Pyongyang, Kim Jon Un has "focused on modernising his nuclear and missile arsenals", said Sky News .

In his New Year's Eve address, he warned that the actions of the US and its allies have pushed the Korean peninsula to the brink of nuclear war . And he announced that the hermit kingdom had abandoned "the existential goal of reconciling with rival South Korea", said The Associated Press .

"We believe that, like his grandfather in 1950, Kim Jong Un has made a strategic decision to go to war," Robert L. Carlin and Siegfried S. Hecker wrote at 38 North , a website that tracks developments on the peninsula.

Alongside its military development, Kim has been "chumming up to Russia and remaining on the right side of China", said The Times 's Asia editor Richard Lloyd Parry.

This has "added greatly to tension on the peninsula", said Lloyd Parry, and increased the chances of so-called miscalculation – "where one side assumes that the other is about to attack, and goes first".

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Essay on World War 3 for Class 10, 12, Mains Exam (UPSC, PSC, SSC)

World War 3 Essay : After a huge raging between countries in the world War 1 and world War 2, there seems like ly possibility of an upcoming world War 3. Several minor wars among nations have been taking places verbally and with arms and ammunition.  Each country is in the verge of proving to be the mightiest amongst all.

World War 2 being one of the deadliest Wars in the history, due to the modern technology of weapons and invention of Nuclear weapons in this era, which has caused massive destruction to the economies and to the ecosystem, making it very difficult to revive a countries economy and its natural resources.

As of today most of the developed and developing nations have resorted to nuclear weapons for which huge sums of money is floated to purchase such weapons. Many of countries are in process of being most powerful nuclear weaponry hubs like Russia, USA, China and India. Several billions of Rupees are spent in purchasing the machinery and weapons, thereby leading to some developing countries into foreign debt.

Countries like USA, Russia and China were already in the verge of disputes and Civil War with other nations.

The recent war between Russia and Ukraine its self looks to be the beginning of a World War 3, as most of the nations are in favor of Ukraine, while Russia continues to rage a war against them. This has caused several loss of lives, destruction of economies not only of Ukraine but of the other closer nations due to export import restriction, travel restrictions and other political restrictions face by the country. This war has caused heavy damage to the economies, lives and eco-system. If this war continues  very soon we can expect world war 3 as other nations are also gearing themselves for the next war, after seeing the devastation caused by the Russian Government on Ukraine.

Countries are already facing several inter country disputes and other issues, for example cyber attacks is on of the major issues being faced. Wherein Government websites are being hacked and very sensitive information  about the nations are been stolen by the enemy countries. This information is being sold at a hefty price to other nations.

World War 3 could be possibly faced soon by the nations if such internal disputes, imports and export issues, political issues  border issues, cyber attacks, and other economic issues are continued between nations. This will cost lives and destroy natural resources to a large extent. Several species will turn extent as well.

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Intercultural Communication: A Panacea to Avoid Third World War: CSS ESSAY 2021

Table of Contents

Thesis statement

Intercultural communication plays a crucial role in preventing a third world war by promoting understanding, empathy, and collaboration among nations.

Introduction

In an increasingly interconnected and globalized world, the need for effective intercultural communication has become more critical than ever. The potential consequences of miscommunication, misunderstandings, and conflicts among nations have raised concerns about the possibility of a third world war. However, by fostering understanding, empathy, and collaboration, intercultural communication can serve as a powerful tool to prevent such a catastrophic event. In this essay we explore the role of intercultural communication in avoiding a third world war, highlighting its significance in promoting peace, resolving conflicts, and building stronger international relations.

Exposition: Understanding Intercultural Communication

Intercultural communication can be defined as the exchange of information, ideas, and values between individuals or groups from different cultural backgrounds. It involves understanding and navigating cultural differences, such as language, customs, beliefs, and social norms. In a globalized world where people from diverse cultures interact on a daily basis, intercultural communication has become a crucial skill for effective collaboration and cooperation.

Effective intercultural communication requires cultural sensitivity, open-mindedness, and the willingness to learn about and appreciate different cultures. It involves active listening, empathy, and the ability to adapt communication styles to ensure mutual understanding. By recognizing and valuing cultural differences, individuals and nations can bridge gaps, promote inclusivity, and prevent conflicts that could potentially escalate into a world war.

Description: The Threat of a Third World War

The world has witnessed the devastating consequences of two world wars, which resulted in immense loss of life, destruction, and suffering. The lingering threat of a third world war looms over global society due to various factors. These include geopolitical tensions, territorial disputes, ideological differences, and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. In this context, effective communication becomes imperative in mitigating misunderstandings, defusing tensions, and promoting peaceful resolutions.

One significant challenge to international peace is the lack of communication and understanding among nations. Misinterpretation of intentions, stereotypes, and prejudices can escalate minor disagreements into full-blown conflicts. Moreover, cultural differences and language barriers often impede effective dialogue and compromise, leading to further polarization and animosity between nations. To avoid the catastrophic consequences of another world war, it is essential to prioritize intercultural communication as a means to prevent misunderstandings and promote peaceful coexistence.

Argumentation: The Power of Intercultural Communication in Conflict Prevention

Intercultural communication plays a pivotal role in conflict prevention by fostering understanding, empathy, and collaboration among nations. By cultivating a mindset of cultural sensitivity and embracing diverse perspectives, nations can build mutual trust and respect. Through effective intercultural communication, conflicts can be addressed proactively, and potential crises can be averted. The following points highlight the significance of intercultural communication in conflict prevention:

Fostering understanding and empathy among nations: Intercultural communication facilitates the exchange of ideas, values, and experiences, enabling nations to gain a deeper understanding of each other’s perspectives. This understanding promotes empathy and reduces the likelihood of misinterpretations and hostile actions.

Promoting peaceful resolutions through dialogue and negotiation: Effective intercultural communication enables nations to engage in constructive dialogue, negotiation, and diplomacy. By listening to one another, finding common ground, and exploring win-win solutions, conflicts can be resolved without resorting to violence.

Building trust and collaboration among diverse cultures and societies: Intercultural communication fosters trust and cooperation by breaking down barriers and building bridges between nations. By appreciating cultural diversity and recognizing the benefits of collaboration, countries can work together on global challenges, such as climate change, terrorism, and poverty.

Case Studies: Examples of Intercultural Communication in Conflict Resolution

Numerous case studies demonstrate the power of intercultural communication in conflict resolution. One prominent example is the diplomatic efforts between the United States and Cuba, which led to the normalization of relations in 2015. Through dialogue, negotiations, and cultural exchange, the two nations were able to overcome decades of hostility and work towards mutual understanding and cooperation.

Similarly, multilateral organizations like the United Nations and regional bodies such as the European Union play a vital role in promoting intercultural communication and conflict prevention. These organizations facilitate dialogue, mediate disputes, and provide platforms for nations to engage in peaceful negotiations.

Additionally, there are instances where effective intercultural communication has successfully prevented conflicts from escalating into full-scale wars. Diplomatic dialogues, cultural exchanges, and citizen diplomacy initiatives have been instrumental in easing tensions between nations and preventing potential conflicts.

Narration: Personal Experiences and Testimonials

Personal experiences and testimonials further highlight the importance of intercultural communication in conflict prevention. Individuals who have engaged in cross-cultural interactions often report transformative experiences, wherein prejudices and stereotypes are challenged, and meaningful connections are formed. By sharing stories of personal growth, understanding, and friendship, we can inspire others to embrace intercultural communication as a means to avoid conflicts and promote peace.

In a world threatened by the possibility of a third world war, intercultural communication emerges as a panacea for conflict prevention. By promoting understanding, empathy, and collaboration among nations, intercultural communication breaks down barriers and builds bridges between cultures. Through effective dialogue, negotiation, and cultural exchange, conflicts can be resolved peacefully. It is crucial for governments, organizations, and individuals to prioritize intercultural communication as a means to avoid the catastrophic consequences of another world war. By doing so, we can create a future where diversity is celebrated, understanding is valued, and conflicts are resolved through peaceful means.

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From the Third World to the Global South

The term ‘Global South’ is not an uncontroversial one. There have been many debates in the last few decades regarding its usefulness, both analytical and historical, but especially its connection to another equally debated term, ‘Third World.’ In the midst of these debates, however, there has appeared a loose consensus around their meaning and their linkages. I will attempt to elucidate here the meaning and histories of both terms, and the connections and ruptures between them. To do so, I will be drawing on the work of several Marxist intellectuals, such as L.S. Stavrianos and Vijay Prashad, among others. It must be emphasized, however, that the term Global South cannot be considered separately from that of the Third World. I argue that the idea of Global South could not have emerged without taking seriously the conceptual work done by the term Third World, and indeed without the legacy left by Third Worldism and its historical landmarks. The discussion below devotes significant space to understanding not only the emergence of the term Third World, but especially the central role played by processes of capitalist expansion to conceptualizing both Third World and Global South, albeit in different ways and at different historical junctures.

The great victory of the Vietnamese people at Dien Bien Phu is no longer strictly speaking a Vietnamese victory. From July 1954 onward the colonial peoples have been asking themselves: “What must we do to achieve a Dien Bien Phu? How should we go about it?” A Dien Bien Phu was now within reach of every colonized subject. – Frantz Fanon .

In his now classic work Global Rift , L.S. Stavrianos (1981: 35-36) argues that ‘[t]he overseas expansion of European capitalism resulted in the emergence of the Third World through the operation of imperialism.’ This is, of course, an argument that draws on a rich Marxist tradition summarized by Karl Marx’ famous dictum (articulated in his Grundrisse ), according to which capital by its nature has to drive beyond every spatial barrier and conquer the whole earth for its market.Both Rosa Luxemburg’s The Accumulation of Capital (1913) and Lenin’s Imperialism: The Highest Stage of Capitalism (1917) expanded on this idea. Luxemburg stated that capitalism needed to expand in new areas of the world untouched by capitalist forms of production, in search of natural resources, new markets, and (cheap or free) labour. Alex Callinicos (2002: 321) claims that Luxemburg inaugurated a Marxist tradition that examines the link between capitalist expansion and the violent domination and exploitation of the Global South. Stavrianos draws on this tradition of Marxist thought, which highlights that the very creation of the Third World is intimately connected to processes of capitalist expansion via colonial conquest, in other words, to processes of underdevelopment. The notions of ‘underdevelopment’ and ‘overdevelopment’ are crucial to understanding Stavrianos’ conception of the Third World. He does not see them as separate, individual and discrete phenomena, rather they are tied together inseparably: Western nations are overdeveloped to the degree that Third World nations are underdeveloped (Stavrianos 1981: 35).

Here, Walter Rodney’s work on processes of underdevelopment in Africa is especially pertinent: Rodney (1972) states that underdevelopment is not a product of internal factors of Third World societies, but rather the direct consequence of processes of capitalist expansion, and of the integration of these societies within the capitalist world system. The creation of the Third World was not simply about colonial conquest and incorporating these territories into European colonial empires. Rather (and especially), it had also to do with their active ‘underdevelopment’ by the colonial metropole through the extraction of raw natural resources and labour for the exclusive benefit of the metropole, and with devastating consequences for local economies, polities and societies. I understand ‘underdevelopment’ here in the way articulated by dependency theorist A.G. Frank (1969) in his now classic piece ‘The Development of Underdevelopment.’ Here, Frank identifies underdevelopment as a conscious political action by the colonial metropole whereby resources belonging to the colonial society/periphery are being extracted and used, but used in a way which benefits dominant states and not the poorer states in which the resources are found. In that sense, according to dependency theory, Third World countries are not ‘behind’ or in need of ‘catching up’ to the richer countries of the world. They are not poor because they lagged behind the scientific transformations or lacked the Enlightenment values of the European states. They are poor because they were coercively integrated into the European economic system only as producers of raw materials or to serve as repositories of cheap labour, and were thus denied the opportunity to market their resources in any way that competed with dominant states.

It cannot be emphasized enough thus that the idea of Third World is inseparable from the emergence of global capitalism via colonial conquest and exploitation. The integration of colonial societies into capitalist circuits has permanently changed and restructured local economies with tremendous consequences both for the short term and, more importantly, for the long term. Here the idea of underdevelopment is crucial because it throws light on processes of exploitation and dependence that have begun a couple of centuries ago, and are still very much ongoing. Stavrianos (1981: 39) notes, for instance, that one of the distinguishing features of the Third World is the idea of ‘economic growth without economic development’, which refers to ‘growth determined by foreign capital and foreign markets rather than by local needs.’ His definition of the Third World is illuminating: it is not a set of countries or statistics, but rather ‘a set of relationships – unequal relationships between controlling metropolitan centers and dependent peripheral regions, whether colonies as in the past or neocolonial “independent” states as today’ (Stavrianos 1981: 40). To summarize, the idea of Third World is unthinkable without global capitalism and the rise of global hierarchies and inequality it produced. Here Marxist scholarship has made an invaluable contribution by exploring in depth the twin roots of colonial conquest and capitalist expansion behind the idea of Third World (see James 1938, Du Bois 1947, Rodney 1972, Amin 1976, Wallerstein 1989, Wolf 2010, Davis 2001, Anievas and Nisançioglu 2015). It has also brought forward the idea that we cannot think and speak of issues such as poverty, war and conflict, environmental degradation and political corruption in the Third World/Global South outside of the global structures that produce and condition these phenomena (see Tsing 2005, Tilley 2020).

I would like to complicate, however, our understanding of the idea of Third World: this idea became a referent not only for a set of global relations of dependence and inequality, but also for 1) a global project premised on a certain common history of colonial domination and exploitation (loosely identified with the Bandung spirit and the emergence of non-alignment); 2) an ideological orientation that started with struggles of decolonization and that acquired global dimensions, whose heyday were the 1960s and 1970s (the so called ‘long 1960s’), known as Third Worldism (see Sajed 2019). The former finds its conceptualization in Vijay Prashad’s work The Darker Nations , where he claims that ‘The Third World was not a place. It was a project’ (2007: xv). Prashad puts forth the idea of a Third World project to refer to the emergence of a common ideology and a set of institutions that encapsulated its values and goals.

Arguably its best-known landmark is the Bandung conference , which took place in Bandung, Indonesia in April 1955, bringing together delegates from twenty-nine nations in Africa and Asia, representing either recently independent countries or those that were in the midst of national liberation struggles. Bandung is associated with the creation of a Third World bloc , that is with a global project that produced a ‘transcontinental political consciousness in Africa and Asia’ (Young 2001: 191). In the words of Quynh N. Pham and Robbie Shilliam (2016: 6), ‘[t]he Bandung Conference is remarkable insofar as it provided the first diplomatic space in 20th century international relations that promised an intimacy amongst colonized and postcolonized peoples.’ One of the consequences of the conference was, as Vijay Prashad (2007: 41) observes, the creation of a United Nations bloc that would bring together representatives from Africa, Asia, and later Latin America and dominate the General Assembly for decades to come. Another significant legacy of Bandung was the articulation of an economic alternative for the Third World that was meant to provide a different path to development to that imposed by the dominant capitalist model. The UNCTAD (the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development), established in 1964, is the direct product of Bandung, and emphasizes engagement in trade and development by the Third World on an equitable basis.

The Third World project was thus a collective attempt to establish political and economic sovereignty for the former colonial world. The project would find a clearer articulation in 1966, in Havana, Cuba, at the First Solidarity Conference of the Peoples of Africa, Asia, Latin America, also known as the Tricontinental Conference, attended by more than 500 delegates from 82 countries. The resolutions adopted at the conference articulated an anti-imperialist platform for Third World countries against the aggressive foreign policy of the US and its allies. One of the legacies of the conference would be the project of a New International Economic Order (NIEO), which emerged in the 1970s as a proposed alternative to the exploitative capitalist system that dominated the global political economy.

The idea of NIEO was brought forth by the countries from the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) as a way to redress the dire inequalities of the global trade system. The initiative can be dated to the 1973 NAM conference in Algiers, where demands for more equitable economic policies for Third World countries would be put together formally and later forwarded for consideration to the General Assembly at the UN (Cox 1979, Prashad 2012, Anghie 2019). As Anthony Anghie (2019: 432) notes, the principle of ‘permanent sovereignty over natural resources’ was one of the core principles animating NIEO because it would allow Third World countries absolute economic sovereignty over the use and/or preservation of natural resources within their borders. It would thus not only allow them autonomy over the use of resources, but also protect them against predatory practices and interests of multinational corporations. Indeed, Greg Grandin (2019) argues it was Latin America that pioneered the idea of sovereignty over natural resources, idea which was formally adopted by the UN in 1962: ‘In its 1917 constitution, Mexico was the first country in the world to adopt the principle that absolute sovereignty over natural resources belongs to the state.’ Sadly, the points on the agenda of NIEO would never be realized: oil crises, the heavy indebtedness of Third World countries via devastating loan conditions, and consistent and active efforts by Western countries to stop and counteract this initiative would effectively stop the agenda of NIEO (see Stavrianos 1981, Prashad 2012, Anghie 2019).

It is thus the failure of the NIEO (and by failure, I mean the active efforts by Western interests to prevent this agenda from being implemented) that signals the demise of the Third World project, and the emergence of what Vijay Prashad (2012: 5) calls ‘a new geography of production.’ By the latter, he understands both the ‘disarticulation of Northern Fordism’ but also the rise of new technologies (satellite, communication/internet, containerization of ships) that re-structured dramatically global trade and production (ibid.). One well-known aspect of this is the relocation of production processes from the First to the Third World, thus allowing corporations to take advantage of wage differentials and of significantly fewer restrictions on environmental and labour standards. Prashad (2012) thus sees the idea of the Global South as associated with the rise of neoliberalism and this new geography of production. Prominent features of this shift have included: austerity measures (enforced in the South through the infamous Structural Adjustment Programs), financialization of the global economy (which saw the emergence of certain urban metropoles as hubs of the global financial industry, many of them in the Global South, such as Hong Kong, Singapore, Shanghai, Bahrain, Dubai, Saõ Paolo), soaring rates of unemployment and wage disparities, feminization of workforce (especially in export processing zones).

It is important to make here the following conceptual distinction: whereas some scholars (Grovogui 2011) see an almost seamless continuum from the Third World to the Global South, others such as L.S. Stavrianos (1981) and Vijay Prashad (2012) see continuities but also fundamental ruptures and shifts. Some scholars indicate that the term Global South emerged in the 2000s, to indicate a new geopolitical arrangement after the end of the Cold War (see Dados and Connell 2012). The discussion here, however, is not particularly keen in exploring the provenance of the term but rather to flesh out the historical content behind both the Third World and the Global South, as concepts and realities. So, in some ways, Global South is not simply synonymous with Third World, though they may have overlapping features (and at times they are used interchangeably). Rather the idea of the Global South signals a critical historical juncture that can be dated back to the mid-1970s: the revival of neoliberalism, the demise of the Third World project (with its emphasis on developmentalism, and the quest for meaningful political and economic sovereignty), and the rise of what Jan Scholte (2005) called ‘hypercapitalism.’

Writing in 1981, Stavrianos does not use the term Global South; however, ironically, he does note this exact shift by describing it as the Third Worldization of the First World, whereby he makes the argument that the re-location of production processes from the North to the South, and the increasing integration of all societies into an international capitalist economy produced effects within affluent societies that used to be associated with the Third World: increasing poverty and economic disparity, the creation of slums and processes of ghettoization, soaring rates of unemployment, among others (Stavrianos 1981: 23-27). Stavrianos does not in any way suggest a levelling of the playing field (albeit in negative terms) between the First and Third Worlds via neoliberalism. Rather he is pointing to the global effects of neoliberalism and the way they re-structured the geography of inequality and oppression.

Global South thus incorporates not only spaces that used to be referred to before as Third World, but also spaces in the North that are characterized by exploitation, oppression and neocolonial relations, such as indigenous and black communities (and immigrant communities) in Western societies; and vice versa, some spaces that used to be part of the Third World now inhabit an ambiguous political and economic space because of rapid processes of modernization and integration into the global economy. Let’s think, for instance, of places such as Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea (the so-called Asian tigers), the countries part of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain), which are geographically positioned in the ‘South,’ though economically (and even politically) occupy spaces in the North. And there are, of course, liminal spaces: countries in Southeast Europe and the Balkans, where some of them have been politically integrated into the European Union (and thus given partial access to political and economic structures of the North). However, through their economic structures and even in socio-cultural terms, they are very much part of the Global South. The liminality of these spaces has become glaringly apparent with the recent Covid-19 crisis, when, in the midst of a general lockdown across the EU, agricultural workers were flown in from Romania into Germany and the UK to meet labour shortage demands for food supply chains threatened by the lockdown. Not only is the health of these workers imperiled, but their working conditions have been so appalling that some workers went on strike protesting lack of wages and degrading living arrangements.

The example above illustrates deep ambiguities and contradictions behind the idea of the Global South, whereby spaces from South/Third World are integrated into institutional arrangements in and by the North, which benefit primarily the North, and the political and economic elites in the South. One such example is NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement), a free trade agreement between the US, Canada, and Mexico, which took effect in January 1994. The agreement had as its goal the elimination of trade barriers between the three countries, and the increase of investment among them. On January 1, 1994, on the same day that the NAFTA agreement took effect, the Zapatista Army of National Liberation (EZLN) declared war to the Mexican state. The Zapatista rebellion is made up primarily of poor indigenous peasants from Chiapas, in southern Mexico, whose already precarious livelihoods were devastated by the NAFTA agreement. Their struggles, their unique political philosophy and forms of organization, and their persistence in the face of tremendous odds stacked against them have attracted global attention: numerous groups, social movements, activists, academics, artists and journalists both from the North and the South have reached out in solidarity with the Zapatistas over the last three decades.

This example illustrates another layer of the term ‘Global South:’ on the one hand, there is the new geography of neoliberalism with its global capillaries of exploitation and dehumanization; on the other hand, there is also the Global South as ‘a concatenation of protests against the theft of the commons, against the theft of human dignity and rights, against the undermining of democratic institutions’ (Prashad 2012: 9). The protests that have recently exploded throughout the Global South in late 2019 in Chile, Iraq, Ecuador, Bolivia, Algeria, Iran, Lebanon have been chained mobilizations against the depredations of neoliberal capitalism and its local instantiations.

The question that lies at the core of debates around the terms Third World and Global South is the following: what (if anything) connects the Third World project to the Global South? While the rise of emerging economies (the BRICS: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) has been hailed by some as signalling the end of the US’ political and economic hegemony (and that of the West, more generally), and the arrival of multipolarity, others see little hope in this relatively recent development. Richard Pithouse (2018) argues that there is little that links the emancipatory potential of the Third World project (as highlighted by the conferences in Bandung in 1955 and Havana in 1966) to the contemporary reality of the BRICS. Current political leadership of countries making up the BRICS is anything but emancipatory: Modi and Bolsonaro can be accurately described as fascists, Vladimir Putin runs a highly repressive and corrupt regime, while corruption is deeply embedded in Chinese and South African polities. Pithouse thus sees little hope for emancipation among political elites in the Global South; rather, he argues, recovering the emancipatory project of the Third World has to come from building popular and democratic grassroots movements throughout the Global South.

If the protests that exploded throughout the Global South in late 2019 are to be taken seriously, then the assessment is accurate: we cannot recuperate the promise and potential of the Third World project from current political establishments in the Global South – they have morphed into local/regional conduits of neoliberal repression (there are a few notable exceptions here, such as Cuba). However, it is grassroots movements, both local and transnational, that have kept the legacy of the Third World project alive. Paradoxically, then, the term Global South signals both the turn to neoliberalism but also ‘a world of protest, a whirlwind of creative activity’ (Prashad 2012: 9).

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Anievas, A. and Nisancioglu, K. 2015. How the West Came to Rule. The Geopolitical Origins of Capitalism , Polity Press.

Callinicos, A. 2002. ‘The Actuality of Imperialism.’ Millennium: Journal of International Studies , 31 (2), 319–326.

Cox, R.W. 1979. ‘Ideologies and the New International Economic Order: Reflections on Some Recent Literature.’ International Organization 33(2), 257-302.

Dados, N., and Connell, R. 2012. ‘The Global South.’ Contexts 11(1), 12-13.

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Grandin, G. 2019. ‘What’s at Stake in Venezuela? On Sovereignty and Latin America.’ London Review of Books .

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Tilley, L. 2020. ‘A strange industrial order:’ Indonesia’s racialized plantation ecologies and anticolonial estate worker rebellions. History of the Present 10(1). 

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Further Reading on E-International Relations

• The Global South is in Exile
• The Global South as a Political Project
• Digital Trade as a Global South Challenge
• Opinion – The Hypocrisy of the UK Government’s Plans for Girl’s Education in the Global South
• Signs from the Global South: Development with Deaf Communities
• Climate Justice in the Global South: Understanding the Environmental Legacy of Colonialism

Alina Sajed is Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science, at McMaster University (Canada). She researches and teaches on anticolonial thought and praxis; North Africa and the Middle East; and Third Worldism and its reverberations. She is the author of Postcolonial Encounters in International Relations (Routledge, 2013), and the co-editor (with Randolph B. Persaud) of Race, Gender, and Culture in International Relations: Postcolonial Perspectives (Routledge, 2018). Twitter @AlinaSajed

Tomek Najdyhor

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Are we heading for World War Three? Experts give their verdicts

International allies are counselling restraint after the Iranian barrage against Israel, and Russia continues to make gains in Ukraine. So are we on the cusp of another World War? Sky News asks experts to weigh in.

Tuesday 16 April 2024 21:25, UK

In a world that has grown more dangerous in recent years, the nightmare scenario of a Third World War is in the public consciousness.

Earlier this year, UK Defence Secretary Grant Shapps warned the world could be engulfed by wars involving China, Russia, North Korea and Iran in the next five years, and said we are moving "from a post-war to pre-war world".

The relief felt at the end of the Cold War in the late '80s has been replaced with increasing alarm at Russia's invasion of Ukraine , and there is outcry at the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza .

Sky News spoke to experts about whether World War Three is a possibility - and if we really are living in a "pre-war world".

Here's what they had to say...

'The international order is fraying'

Hugh Lovatt, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations thinktank

"The reassuring news is we are not heading towards the Third World War," he says.

While there are conflicts in tensions in various theatres - Ukraine, the Middle East, Asia-Pacific - these are all "separate and not connected", according to Mr Lovatt.

"The Gaza war has been going on for six months and is driving regional escalation - Iran's retaliation against Israel is just the latest example of this."

There are implications for the international community, including the UK, for example in terms of the Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and the impact that has on global trade.

There is, he says, a risk that British troops become sucked into a conflict in the Middle East.

"We need to see these risks in a certain context which is they do impact the UK but they are not existential risks.

"This is also happening at a time when the international order is fraying, is under considerable strain. This is something that we should be very troubled by."

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'More likely now than at any time since the end of the last world war'

Deborah Haynes, Sky News security and defence editor

Given the scale of the turmoil shaking parts of the globe - in particular in Ukraine and the Middle East - the potential for a spark that ignites World War Three already exists.

That does not mean an escalation to global confrontation is inevitable but it is arguably more likely now than at any time since the end of the last world war.

A decision by Iran to launch an unprecedented barrage of missiles and drones against Israel has just raised the stakes even higher.

Israel has vowed to respond though its allies, including the UK and the US, are urging restraint especially as they helped ensure the vast majority of incoming munitions were blasted out of the sky before they could cause harm on the ground.

Should Israel choose to retaliate, the crisis could yet be contained if its return strike is limited and any further Iranian response triggered by such an attack is also curbed. But they are two big ifs.

Read more: Sunak facing further calls to proscribe IRGC Cameron urges Israel not to retaliate to Iran What impact would proscribing Iran's IRGC as a terrorist organisation have?

Also, every time even limited military action is taken there is the risk of error or miscalculation that leads to uncontrolled escalation to regional war.

What happens in the Middle East also has a global impact, especially because Iran is backed by Russia and has close ties to China, while Israel's strongest allies, led by the US, are predominately Western nations.

It means the crisis pitches authoritarian states against democracies - just as the concurrent war in Europe does.

Despite vows of Western support, Russia is slowly gaining ground in Ukraine. Western allies are failing to deliver the weapons and ammunition the Ukrainian military needs - leading to an almost inevitable retreat unless the balance of military strength on the ground changes.

Success by Vladimir Putin in Ukraine may embolden the Russian president, whose country is on a "total war" footing, to test the strength of the NATO alliance by invading a member state.

Again, this would create a direct war between authoritarian Moscow, armed by Iran, North Korea and also with assistance from China, against the West's NATO alliance.

Evidence that military force has proved effective against Western powers could further harden China's resolve to make good on a pledge to reunite the island of Taiwan with the mainland even if that means invading.

Such a move could also plunge Asia into conflict, again along the same dividing line of authoritarian states versus democracies.

'Diversion of attention'

Edward R Arnold, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) thinktank

"I think people really need to understand what the North Atlantic Treaty is, which is the foundation of NATO," he says.

Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News

Mr Arnold argues that the public seem to believe that NATO's Article 5 (the principle that an attack on one member is treated as an attack on all) is automatic.

"That's not the case or certainly does not have to be the case... escalation is not automatic and there are measures to de-escalate things."

Looking to the situation in Ukraine, where NATO has been providing weapons and assistance, he says the risk of a miscommunication between the West and Russia has increased.

"The chances of a miscommunication where one ship accidentally fires on another, I think that goes up.

"We need to be really prepared about what that means."

He also argues that in some ways the threat of a wider conflict with Russia is reducing at the moment. Kremlin forces are starting to make progress in Ukraine, but the quality of their troops has been degraded significantly such that they are not in a position to present a threat to NATO.

Mr Arnold continued: "Vladimir Putin will be looking pretty closely at what happens in the Middle East: how each nation responds and just the diversion of attention (from Ukraine).

"It's all helping Putin at the moment because while focused on the Middle East we are not as focused as we have been on Ukraine."

'Donald Trump could undermine NATO'

Dr Luigi Scazzieri, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform thinktank

"It depends on your definition of World War Three. A possible conflict between Iran and Israel has the potential to expand into a major military conflagration in the Middle East, with global implications.

"The US would almost certainly be drawn in on Israel's side and other Western countries, including the UK, may do the same to a lesser extent.

"But their involvement would be limited and this would not be World War Three, not least as Russia can ill-afford to support Iran and because China is unlikely to.

"The impact of such a conflict on Europe would be primarily economic, through further disruption in energy flows and trade.

"The primary pathway to a World War Three scenario remains a direct Western clash with Russia. That scenario will be more likely if Donald Trump wins and undermines NATO, tempting Vladimir Putin into an attack on the Baltics.

"A clash with Russia would also be quite likely if Western forces become involved in supporting Ukraine in frontline combat roles."

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