climate change in pakistan essay outline

• climate change

Pakistan Must Adapt to Climate Change. But Who Will Help Us?

T he record-breaking mega-flood in August 2022 that impacted 33 million people in Pakistan brought home to the world the urgency and scale of the climate crisis afflicting developing countries. At the 27th United Nations Climate Change conference (COP 27), it triggered widespread worry among other countries about the state of preparedness many will have to gear up to—even if, like Pakistan, they remain negligible emitters of the greenhouse gases. In 2022, Pakistan’s pavilion at Sharm-al-Shaikh positioned not just the global connectedness of the crisis by pointing out that “what goes on in Pakistan will not stay in Pakistan,” it also became the hub of the climate finance deficits that are growing exponentially in inverse proportion to global emissions. This has led, in part, to the creation of the Loss and Damage (L&D) fund at the end of the conference.

Yet as G20’s energy ministers remained unable to agree on a roadmap to reduce emissions by July 2023 (even as COP28 approaches) the realization set in that many of us will remain in the frontline of the burn. Pakistan has been home for three successive years where on at least one day temperatures reached 53°C (127.4°F). The hope that we were working with needed a home-grown plan. As heatwaves coupled with slow global action transformed the earth into a red planet in the summer of 2023, Pakistan launched a National Adaptation Plan in July to chart a strategic whole-of government approach with a framework toolkit that allows it to protect its population.

For instance, the province of Sindh, which to this day stands transformed by the 2022 deluge, and recently saw evacuations in the coastal areas from cyclonic activity in a warming Arabian Sea, began its rehabilitation process by transferring new land titles to the women of afflicted households. In all such crises, the most vulnerable always remain the poorest, the women and children, impacted disproportionately by multiple crises of food insecurity, displacement, and disease.

That said, while Sindh is struggling to cope with a cascade of disasters, it will need not just the National Adaptation Plan, but the resources to transform municipal, rural, and agri-water governance for the dangerous decade ahead—all of which needs time, capacity, and liquidity. Similarly, the province of Balochistan has already declared a flood emergency, while the northern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is impacted too by a gathering storm.

Read More: ‘I Lost My Son in This Water a Few Days Ago.’ Photos of Pakistan’s Catastrophic Flooding

For countries drowning in extreme weather, exogenous shocks, and high public debt, where will this money come from? Especially in the amount that the World Bank in its 2022 Country Climate and Development Report calculated for Pakistan: a staggering $348 billion by 2030. This is just the number to stay resilient—to keep our heads above water and build sustainability into a climate-adaptive future. All this while a summer of fresh flooding and melting glaciers redefines our lives, our social and economic experiences, into a lifelong struggle to rebuild with resilience while we fight the climate devastations wreaking havoc again.

Who is coming to the rescue of such countries? While U.N. has been in the frontline of immediate relief, even its flash appeals globally remain under-funded. Structural reforms involve pain. We are willing to undergo more pain, especially for enabling resilience, but some amount of change has to come from the Bretton Woods system—the monetary management structure that controls the U.S., Canada, Australia, Western Europe, and Japan—meant to lead the world out of egregious inequality and now climate distress. The financing gap to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in developing countries has enlarged from $2.5 trillion in 2019 to $4.2 trillion in 2023. Add to it the cost of realizing climate goals, and the amount reaches a whopping $5.2 trillion annually .

Our National Adaption Plan (NAP) is designed to build climate-adaptation goals into every aspect of development planning. The international financial system must do the same. As we approach COP 28, the Global Goal on Adaptation remains under-capitalized, while the L&D fund is yet to start functioning. The U.N. Secretary General António Guterres made detailed recommendations in a press conference on July 27 that countries must operationalize and scale up the funding of renewables. Donor countries have been bilaterally supportive but they too need to fulfill their commitment to provide 0.7% of their Gross National Income as development assistance. Multilateral Development Banks should be recapitalized and be enabled to provide portfolio and budgetary support to developing countries, rather than project finance only. They should vastly expand grant and concessional lending to developing countries, enhance the vote and the voice of the developing countries in both International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, and link the distribution of new IMF SDRs to development and climate goals.

The transition to a sustainable global economy will require an investment of around $1.5 trillion each year in the developing countries. Business as usual will certainly not work. A large part of this funding pool will have to come from the private sector, which will need new structural incentives to bring their leverage and capital to the business of bending development history. Vulnerable countries cannot attract investment in times of epochal climate distress, but they do need more than band-aid financing. We now need transformational milestones to building global consensus for a financing architecture that can face the 21st century’s rapidly changing conditions that challenge resilience while fueling crippling inequalities.

Critical assistance for the most climate vulnerable countries must not further burden the poor. Actions will be as important as pledges and plans at this point. A real message of change from global leaders would contribute substantially to the success of the forthcoming SDG Summit in September and COP28 in December, and restore trust in global cooperation and international solidarity. Our people are looking to us with renewed hope for action. We must not fail them.

More Must-Reads from TIME

• The New Face of Doctor Who
• Putin’s Enemies Are Struggling to Unite
• Women Say They Were Pressured Into Long-Term Birth Control
• Scientists Are Finding Out Just How Toxic Your Stuff Is
• Boredom Makes Us Human
• John Mulaney Has What Late Night Needs
• The 100 Most Influential People of 2024
• Want Weekly Recs on What to Watch, Read, and More? Sign Up for Worth Your Time

Contact us at [email protected]

United States Institute of Peace

Home ▶ Publications

Pakistan’s Climate Challenges Pose a National Security Emergency

A whole-of-government approach is needed now before climate change exacerbates conflict in the country.

By: Jumaina Siddiqui

Publication Type: Analysis

Pakistan is in the midst of a terrible heatwave , with the temperatures in parts of the country exceeding 120 F. April was the hottest month in the past 61 years, until May came along and saw warmer temperatures. At least 65 people have reportedly died due to the heatwave, but the actual numbers are certainly higher, and it’s caused massive flooding and infrastructure damage in Gilgit-Baltistan, water shortages in Karachi and broader Sindh province, and placed greater demands on the country’s weak electrical grid. Despite monsoon rains beginning in late June — causing at least 77 deaths — many parts of the country still swelter. Pakistan should treat these climate disasters as a full-fledged national security emergency before they stoke conflict that adds further stress amid the country’s other numerous challenges.

Climate Challenges Could Stoke Conflict

For the past 20 years, Pakistan has consistently ranked among the top 10 most vulnerable countries on the Climate Risk Index, with 10,000 fatalities due to climate-related disasters and financial losses amounting to about $4 billion from 173 extreme weather events. These challenges threaten to spark climate-related conflict over resources — such as water — that have become scarce due to climate change impacts. Climate-related disasters like floods, heatwaves or tsunamis can also exacerbate tensions among groups who already have a history of conflict. Any of these scenarios would be a serious threat to Pakistan and have serious ramifications for any government in the immediate aftermath of a climate disaster or as part of efforts to mitigate future disasters.

This year’s heatwave further exacerbated food insecurity, which can undermine peace and stability, according to the United Nations. Scorching temperatures have damaged entire orchards and hurt wheat production across Pakistan, adversely impacting the livelihoods of many small farmers and rendering formerly arable land unusable for agriculture in some parts of the country. Already facing wheat shortages due to Russia’s war in Ukraine, Pakistan’s domestic wheat production this year will be reduced by 10% .

During Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s visit to the United States to attend a United Nations meeting on food security, he highlighted that the country is under threat of food, water and energy insecurity. Unfortunately, it is not just a threat anymore but a reality for Pakistan. Combined with soaring inflation and the country’s continued political instability, this is a recipe for disaster. All these trends are potential catalysts that could trigger climate-induced migration from rural areas to urban centers as Pakistanis seek employment and stable living conditions. This puts an additional strain on massive cities and urban infrastructure that already cannot manage their current population levels.

A Mixed Response

Pakistan’s Supreme Court has also taken notice of Pakistan’s climate change vulnerabilities. In a recent decision, the court noted that that in urban areas in particular, relevant government authorities should take into consideration “adaptation, climate resiliency and sustainability…[as] they are essential to actualize the fundamental rights of the people.”

While some subnational government agencies have been more effective in preparing for climate-related disasters, other have not. In Gilgit Baltistan, the heatwave caused a massive glacial flood, but thanks to continuous monitoring by the relevant local government authorities, people living in vulnerable locations were relocated to safer places before the floods. After the 2020 floods in Karachi, the provincial government decided to address the causes that lead to the severe flooding after the waters subsided. However, their heavy-handed actions — such as tearing down settlements along the nalas, or waterways, that should have drained the flood waters without considering proper plans to resettle or adequately compensate those displaced from the settlements — led to a number of protests from both communities and civil society activists.

It took this heatwave for the Sindh government to notice and take action against the water mafias controlling the city, even though this has been a problem for a decade or more. The water issue connects to the larger issue of natural resource usage and extraction throughout Pakistan, in particular the availability of water, whether it is for agricultural purposes or for consumption. The current heatwave has created an acute water crisis in Sindh, leading to inter-provincial tensions with Punjab — and it’s unclear if there is a resolution in sight .

Pakistan has tried to play a significant role on the international stage, participating in COP26 and signing the global methane pledge. The country is one of the world’s major methane emitters , predominately through its agricultural sector. How this commitment will impact this sector more broadly remains to be seen, especially as Pakistan seeks international financing to meet this commitment. While climate-smart agricultural practices generally save money in the long run, it is important to understand how these changes would impact large-scale farmers and their workers, the latter of whom are one of the most economically disadvantaged groups in country. 

The previous Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government had a strong advocate in Malik Amin Aslam, who served as the special advisor to the prime minster on climate change. The PTI government made significant strides in their efforts to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change such as committing to having 60% of energy coming from “clean” sources and to having electric vehicles making up 30% of the market by 2030.

The current coalition government, led by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), has smartly continued the trend of strong leadership on climate change by appointing Senator Sherry Rehman , a member of the Pakistan Peoples Party, as minster for climate change. While leadership on this issue is imperative, it is equally important that there is a tangible and sustained collaboration and coordination between the national and provincial governments to develop a roadmap to address the impacts of climate change on the country. Because of devolution in Pakistan, issues like water, food and agriculture, and environment are ones where the provinces have the authority to pass governing legislation, while climate change is a federal issue. This disconnect must be resolved through a more robust system for interprovincial coordination. 

What Pakistan Needs

The PML-N government’s announcement to set up a climate change task force in response to the heatwave is a step in the right direction. But if Pakistan is serious about tackling climate change and investing in mitigation and adaption efforts, what is needed is an overarching framework to coordinate this response. One recent model to look to is Pakistan’s National Command and Operation Center (NCOC), which led the country’s COVID-19 response. A climate-focused NCOC would ensure that sufficient resources are allocated to address the impacts of climate change on the country and appropriate coordination takes place that builds political consensus. This would require relevant provincial and national bodies to come together to work develop a common action plan to address the internal impacts of climate change. Furthermore, the NCOC would spearhead the implementation  of Pakistan’s National Determined Contributions under the Paris Accords because some of these efforts would need provincial buy-in.   

It is unclear if Pakistan’s new climate change task force will carry the same weight as the COVID-19 NCOC. But if it is to succeed, then learning from the successes and failures of the NCOC model is imperative. The COVID-19 NCOC took a whole-of-government approach to tackle the crisis head on. In the beginning there was significant tension between the federal and provincial governments on measures such as the timing and scope of lockdowns and whether provinces had the legal mandate to dictate how businesses functioned during the pandemic. However, in the interest of combatting the pandemic, a delicate understanding between and cooperation among political parties in power in different provinces did eventually occur. 

National and provincial governments are working in lockstep right when it comes to energy conservation. But this cooperation will need to be sustained over the long haul. Unlike COVID-19 where we have vaccines and other mitigation tools, climate change is a significantly more complex challenge that will require long-term coordination and commitment. Almost PKR 10 billion (approximately $50 million) has been allocated to the Ministry of Climate Change under the 2022-23 national budget, a decrease from the PKR 14 billion in the 2021-22 national budget. This change is likely due to the economic situation in the country, but still shows a commitment to the issue and continuity between governments as the PTI government’s signature “10 Billion Tree Tsunami” project received an earmark. 

Alongside these domestic efforts, both the United States and Pakistan should hold a second meeting of the U.S.-Pakistan Climate and Environment Working Group, following the first meeting held in September 2021. This working group could serve as the springboard to begin repairing and resetting the tenuous U.S.-Pakistan relationship as addressing climate change and promoting regional stability is in the interest of both nations.   

All mainstream political parties agree that climate change is threat to Pakistan’s social and economic stability. Addressing climate change in Pakistan truly requires a “ war-footing ” and a whole-of-government approach. Otherwise, the consequences of inaction or improper action could foster greater turmoil and strife for all levels of Pakistani society. 

Related Publications

Senior Study Group on Counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan: Final Report

Tuesday, May 14, 2024

By: USIP Senior Study Group on Counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan

When announcing the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in April 2021, President Joe Biden identified counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan as an enduring and critical US national security interest. This priority became even more pronounced after the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021, the discovery of al-Qaeda’s leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul less than a year later, and the increasing threat of the Islamic State of Khorasan (ISIS-K) from Afghanistan. However, owing to the escalating pressures of strategic competition with China and Russia, counterterrorism has significantly dropped in importance in the policy agenda.

Type: Report

Violent Extremism

Why Counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan Still Matters

Thursday, May 9, 2024

By: Ambassador Anne Patterson; Tricia Bacon, Ph.D.; Ambassador P. Michael McKinley; Joshua White, Ph.D.; Brian Finucane, Ph.D.

From wars in Ukraine and the Middle East to rising tensions in the South China Sea, there is no shortage of crises to occupy the time and attention of U.S. policymakers. But three years after the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, the threat of terrorism emanating from South Asia remains strong and policymakers need to be more vigilant. Indeed, at the end of March, an Afghanistan-based affiliate of ISIS launched a devastating attack outside of Moscow, killing over 140 people.

Type: Question and Answer

Global Policy ;  Violent Extremism

As Fragile Kashmir Cease-Fire Turns Three, Here’s How to Keep it Alive

Wednesday, February 21, 2024

By: Christopher Clary

At midnight on the night of February 24-25, 2021, India and Pakistan reinstated a cease-fire that covered their security forces operating “along the Line of Control (LOC) and all other sectors” in Kashmir, the disputed territory that has been at the center of the India-Pakistan conflict since 1947. While the third anniversary of that agreement is a notable landmark in the history of India-Pakistan cease-fires, the 2021 cease-fire is fragile and needs bolstering to be maintained.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Understanding Pakistan’s Election Results

Tuesday, February 13, 2024

By: Asfandyar Mir, Ph.D. ; Tamanna Salikuddin

Days after Pakistan’s February 8 general election, the Election Commission of Pakistan released the official results confirming a major political upset. Contrary to what most political pundits and observers had predicted, independents aligned with former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) won the most seats at the national level, followed by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM). No party won an absolute majority needed to form a government on its own. The resultant uncertainty means the United States may have to contend with a government that is more focused on navigating internal politics and less so on addressing strategic challenges.

Global Elections & Conflict ;  Global Policy

Pakistan Urgently Needs Significant Investments in Climate Resilience to Secure its Economy and Reduce Poverty

ISLAMABAD, November 10, 2022 —This year’s heatwave and devastating floods are a reminder that climate change-induced disasters can significantly set back Pakistan’s development ambitions and its ability to reduce poverty. These disasters have caused more than 1,700 deaths and displaced more than 8 million people. The damage to infrastructure, assets, crops, and livestock has also been massive, with more than $30 billion in damages and economic losses. The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) for Pakistan released today concludes that the country needs fundamental shifts in its development path and policies, requiring substantial investments in people-centric climate adaptation and resilience, that will require international support.

“The recent flooding and humanitarian crisis provide a wake-up call for urgent action to prevent further devastation to the people of Pakistan and its economy due to climate change,” said Martin Raiser, World Bank Vice President for South Asia. “Accelerated climate actions can protect the economy from shocks and secure more sustainable and inclusive growth in Pakistan.”

The CCDR notes that the combined risks of extreme climate-related events, environmental degradation, and air pollution are projected to reduce Pakistan’s GDP by at least 18 to 20% by 2050. This will stall progress on economic development and poverty reduction.

“If we want to tackle climate change, we need to prioritize investing in adaptation to help prepare Pakistan for future climate-related calamities, which are growing in frequency and intensity,” said Hela Cheikhrouhou, IFC Regional Vice President for Middle East, Central Asia, Türkiye, Afghanistan and Pakistan . “ With the right policy frameworks, Pakistan has the opportunity to attract private investment to build its resilience, particularly in sectors such as water management, agriculture, urban infrastructure, municipal services, and housing.”

To improve adaptation to climate change and avoid high costs, the report recommends five priority transitions:

1. Transforming the Agri-Food System: Productivity in the agri-food system – the largest employer, particularly for poor and vulnerable households – has been plummeting due to the degradation of land, overuse of chemical inputs and water, and lack of research. And yields are projected to drop another 50% by 2050. To bolster rural incomes and strengthen food and water security, Pakistan needs to repurpose environmentally damaging subsidies, promote climate-smart and regenerative agriculture and livestock systems, and prioritize ecosystem restoration.

2. Building Resilient and Livable Cities: Pakistan’s population living in urban areas, already highly exposed to pollution and climate change, will increase from 37% in 2020 to 60% in 2050. To ensure cities become more liveable, urgent reforms are needed for more integrated land use planning and increased investments in municipal services and in energy efficiency and clean transportation. To this end, strong municipal governments, and the expansion of city finances via property taxation are critical.

3. Accelerating a Just Transition to Sustainable Energy and Low-carbon Transport: The energy sector is a critical enabler of economic development and poverty reduction. However, it is a huge drain on public finances and foreign exchange reserves and a major contributor to GHG emissions. Pakistan must prioritize reducing the cost of generation including through energy efficiency, ensuring cost-reflective tariffs and improved targeting of subsidies, while addressing technical and collection losses in transmission and distribution. Scaled-up investment in mass transit can avoid locking in highly polluting modes of transport.

4. Strengthening Human Capital to Achieve Sustained and Equitable Development and Climate Resilience: To address its human capital crisis, Pakistan needs to improve the management of water, sanitation, and hygiene, which is the main driver of child stunting, and reduce high fertility rates. Pakistan should also ensure universal access to quality education and expand its social-protection system by improving benefits, particularly for those at the highest risk.

5. Aligning Financing Policies, Incentives, and Institutions to Support Scale-up of Climate Actions: Implementing these policies and executing a climate-resilient and low-carbon development agenda will require total investment needs that amount to around 10% of the cumulative GDP up to 2030. Accelerating the ongoing reforms to expand domestic revenue mobilization, including raising new municipal and property taxes, as well as improving efficiency and targeting of subsidies for agriculture and energy while protecting the most vulnerable will help to finance a large part of the needed investments. Yet, this will not be enough. A comprehensive financing strategy, involving greater private sector involvement and significant international support will be essential to complement Pakistan’s own commitment towards resilient and inclusive development.

“Foreign private capital can play an important role in addressing the climate change challenges in Pakistan,”  said   Ethiopis Tafara, MIGA Vice President and Chief Risk, Legal and Administrative Officer.  “Sustaining flows of foreign direct investment that support climate mitigation and adaptation will contribute toward financing Pakistan’s low-carbon transition.”

Pakistan is not a significant contributor to global warming, but it is on a high-growth trajectory of carbon emissions linked to fossil fuel use. This is also a source of the country’s chronic fiscal stress and worsening air pollution. Therefore, climate actions that bring co-benefits to both adaptation and mitigation and contribute to improving development outcomes should have the highest priority.

--------------------------------------------------

World Bank Group Country Climate and Development Reports

The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) are new core diagnostic reports that integrate climate change and development considerations. They will help countries prioritize the most impactful actions that can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and boost adaptation, while delivering on broader development goals. CCDRs build on data and rigorous research and identify main pathways to reduce GHG emissions and climate vulnerabilities, including the costs and challenges as well as benefits and opportunities from doing so. The reports suggest concrete, priority actions to support a low-carbon, resilient transition. As public documents, CCDRs aim to inform governments, citizens, the private sector, and development partners, and enable engagement with the development and climate agenda. CCDRs will feed into other core Bank Group diagnostics, country engagements and operations, and help attract funding and direct financing for high-impact climate action.

This site uses cookies to optimize functionality and give you the best possible experience. If you continue to navigate this website beyond this page, cookies will be placed on your browser. To learn more about cookies, click here .

• Get Involved

Resilience, Environment and Climate Change

The cumulative effects of climate change directly impact the economy, costing the country an estimated USD 38 billion annually (WB and ADB 2021). If this trend continues, it will reverse human development gains made over the last decade. Already, in 2020 Pakistan ranked 154 out of 189 countries on the United Nations Human Development Index, down two places from 152 the previous year.

Addressing the threats posed by climate change is a priority for the UNDP. At the same time, Pakistan recognizes that climate change affects everyone differently and that narrowing the gender gap is essential to building climate preparedness and resilience for all. If Pakistan is to tackle the climate challenges that lie ahead, it cannot do so without all stakeholders' full and equal participation.

people in GB

accessed health services – 17,825 youth, 250 people in extreme poverty, 1385 women, 27 people with disabilities

of land in Sindh freed of encroachment and brought under the control of the forest department

spoke up about their needs through the Youth Conversations platform

Climate Resilience

Weather-related disasters have become frequent, intense, and unpredictable leading to the destruction of lives, vital infrastructures, homes, and businesses, making climate change threatening and catastrophic. Severe droughts are stifling rural livelihoods. Rising sea levels put low-lying areas at risk of floods. Ecosystems are being fragmented or eliminated, and many species are in decline or being pushed into extinction. These frequent and unpredictable changes in weather conditions severely affect food security, livelihoods, health, clean water, energy, medicines, and other ecosystem services for people, especially the marginalized and vulnerable communities, given their limited ability to cope. The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would have to be reduced by 45 percent by 2030 to prevent global warming above 1.5C. As per the worldwide climate index, Pakistan ranks 8th most vulnerable country to the impacts of climate change. The variability in climate and weather patterns has increased the frequency of disasters which undermines development in Pakistan. Moreover, Pakistan's economy remains highly vulnerable to future threats posed by climate change. 

Addressing the threats posed by climate change is a priority for UNDP. At the same time, UNDP recognizes that climate change affects everyone differently and that narrowing the inequalities is essential to building climate preparedness and resilience for all. If the country is to tackle the climate challenges that lie ahead, it cannot do so without all stakeholders' full and equal participation. 

UNDP is also working closely with the government to explore the potential of Blue Economy in Pakistan.

Institutional and Policy Support

To steer Pakistan toward inclusive and resilient climate development, UNDP is implementing projects to assist the Government of Pakistan in environmental sustainability at the national, provincial, and local levels by moving forward with its multiple thematic areas. 

UNDP focuses on to help governments accelerate progress on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by providing tools that will help identify critical constraints to progress and focus on development objectives that are more relevant to Pakistan's context. Furthermore, UNDP provides support to the Government of Pakistan and offers an integrated package of policy support services that are aligned with its programming priorities. Policy support covers a wide range of areas, including climate change adaptation, disaster risk reduction, access to sustainable energy, sustainable management of terrestrial ecosystems, oceans governance, and promotion of peaceful and inclusive societies, poverty reduction, inclusive growth and productive employment, gender equality and the empowerment of women, and health access to water and sanitation. 

UNDP is strengthening and enabling the Government of Pakistan to strategize NDC planning, relevant policies, and its implementation. Furthermore, UNDP has also aided the government in developing, revising, and implementing its National Climate Change policy. 

Circular Economy/ Solid Waste Management 

The UNDP promotes a circular economy-based approaches to the existing waste value chain. Instead of waste being collected for disposal only, the UNDP facilitates diverting major chunk of the accumulated trash from disposal sites towards various recycling practices. The UNDP creates multiple links currently missing in the value chain: recycling points, where the waste will be sorted for subsequent recycling, and composting facilities. The UNDP will also research and operationalize new recycling technologies to strengthen existing recycling industries. Successful pilot models with the private sector have been initiated.

Protected Area Management and Eco-Tourism

UNDP seeks to contribute to long-term global environmental impacts, including the recovery of wildlife populations, habitat conservation, and agro-biodiversity by managing protected areas. To counter the threats to biodiversity and overcome the barriers to effective management of protected areas, UNDP support the government in various initiatives that enhances its capacity for biodiversity conservation and effective protected area management; it also includes the implementation of various measures to reduce the illegal wildlife trade and poaching. 

In the past, UNDP has worked extensively on protected area management to develop a system in the face of emerging challenges, including climate change threats, rising demands for tourism, increasing demand for natural resource goods and services, and the recognition of customary practices in protected areas. One of the critical interventions was the delineation, mapping, and management planning for the biodiversity corridor between the two national parks, the CKNP (Central Karakoram National Park) and DNP (Deosai National Park); the first of its kind in Pakistan. 

Furthermore, UNDP collaborates with the local community and support local organizations to provide alternate livelihood options in the form of improved climate resilient farming, water management practices, better livestock and pastures, and the capacity building of stakeholder institutions.

Climate Promise - II

Glaciers and Students

Balochistan SDGs (BSDG) Accelerated Delivery

Accelerated response to HIV through effective prevention, treatment, care and support interventions for Key Populations and surveillance in high-risk areas

Eco-Tourism & Camping Villages Project

Policy Support Programme

Merged Areas Governance Project

Reforms And Innovation In Government For High Performance

Stabilization and Inclusive Development Programme (SIDP)

Strengthening Electoral and Legislative Processes

Supporting Rule of Law for Peaceful, Just and Inclusive Societies in Pakistan (Amn-o-Insaf)

Policy support for mainstreaming the Sustainable Development Goals in Pakistan

• Pakistan Today
• Profit Magazine
• Paperazzi Magazine

What do they know of Islam?

Breaking the cycle, peace in south asia and the middle east, privatizing profitable soes, not talking to anyone, who was killed in fresno, pha initiates work on maiden ‘public sculpture garden’ at nasser bagh, centenarians and an sho’s powers, ben affleck and jennifer lopez divorce ‘likely’ after couple reportedly separated…, ‘arrest was illegal’: sci orders release of newsclick founder prabir purkayastha…, indonesia flood death toll rises to 58, with 35 still missing, biden admin plans $1 bn in new arms for israel despite…, indians own highest number of properties in dubai, babar azam, mohammad rizwan break t20i records, t20 world cup: usa may give tough time to pakistan: ramiz…, pcb chairman urges pak squad to embrace modern t20i techniques to…, japan beat pakistan in closely contested sultan azlan shah cup final, amir won’t play first t20i against ireland despite joining team in…, climate change and its impacts in pakistan.

The future is in danger

Climate change is the most important issue of our age; we are the first to see its early warning signals and the last to have a chance to prevent it from occurring. Living in a bubble of ignorance can only get us so far; our globe is indeed a scene of melting glaciers, rising floods, animal extinctions, extreme weather events and the list continues. Spreading climate change awareness using every way possible, including seemingly insignificant forms such as writing school essays, cannot be overstated.

Climate change has put a lot of countries at hazard, and the risk is significantly larger for developing countries. Because of this serious problem, which is having a severe impact on the area, South Asia has grown more disaster-prone. In general, climate change is accelerating and having severe consequences for Pakistan.

Pakistan is geologically located in a region where the effects of climate change are being felt fairly strongly. This climate disaster has had enormous economic, social, and environmental consequences. Statistics from the 2010 floods demonstrate the devastating effects on the 20 million individuals who lost their homes, were injured, or went missing. Similarly, another flood in Pakistan in 2012 wreaked havoc.

Climate change puts Pakistan’s income, housing, food, and security at danger. Considering the tough facts, the Pakistani government must take urgent measures to combat the detrimental effects of climate change. Without a doubt, the authorities are paying close attention to this problem, which they see as sensitive and serious.

Pakistan faces “significantly higher average temperatures than the global average, with a potential rise of 1.3°C-4.9°C by the 2090s over the 1986-2005 baseline,” according to a study, which also noted that Pakistan had “some of the highest disaster risk levels in the world, ranked 18 out of 191 countries by the 2020 Inform Risk Index.”

Under the most optimistic emission scenarios, the global average temperature rise by 2080-99 will be around 3.7°C. Furthermore, changes in Pakistan’s hydrologic regimens, and hence its water supplies, are largely unknown, although dry situations are projected to become more common. Extreme climatic events are expected to become more common and intense, increasing catastrophe risk, particularly for the poor and minority populations.

Including an average monthly maximum of roughly 27°C and an average June maximum of 36°C, Pakistan often witnessed some of the world’s greatest maximum temperatures. In Pakistan, the current median yearly likelihood of a heat wave happening in any specific region is roughly 3 percent. As seen by estimates that over 65,000 individuals were hospitalized with heatstroke during Pakistan’s 2015 heatwave, a huge section of the population is at danger.

Communities offer to the problem of improving resilience and tackling climate change unique views, skills, and a wealth of information. Rather than being seen as recipients, they should be treated as participants in developing resilience. Community leaders may define goals, influence ownership, and create and administer investment programmes that are responsive to their community’s needs, according to research and experience.

Many parts of Pakistan endure yearly temperatures of 38°C or more, and when weather patterns combine to produce protracted periods of heatwave, major human health consequences can occur. Between 1997 and 2015, Pakistan witnessed 126 heatwaves, an average of seven each year, with an upward trend.

Pakistan is a low-middle-income country with a primarily agrarian economy; however, it is gradually industrializing and more than a third of the population currently lives in cities. For food and nutrition security, the country significantly relies on its climate-sensitive land, wa ter, and forest resources. Agriculture continues to be a significant occupation for 42 percent of the population. Irrigation from the glacier-fed River Indus and its tributaries supports about 90 percent of farmland. Glacier melt has accelerated due to climate change, increasing the likelihood of glacier lake outpouring floods (GLOF) and mudslides downstream. Faster glacier melt, rising temperatures, shifting seasons, and irregular rainfall patterns are all affecting the flow of the River Indus, which will have a growing impact on agriculture, food production, and lives. Already, 39 percent of the population lives in poverty, and the loss of livelihoods indicated in this research will have a significant impact on people’s health and capacity to access healthcare.

Heat fatigue, starvation, the introduction of vector-borne diseases like dengue fever, and an increase in the burden of aquatic infections will all have an impact on people’s capacity to work and make a living.

Migrants, internally displaced individuals, and religious and ethnic minorities will be particularly susceptible, since they are frequently confined to hazard-prone land and face challenges to treatment, including financial constraints resulting from informal work. Child marriages, early births, and domestic violence may become more common as a result of climate change. Due to decreasing food production, women and children will be more prone to malnourishment and malnutrition.

Smog is another major issue in Pakistan’s industrialized eastern Punjab region, where the provincial capital, Lahore, is clogged with smoke throughout the winter months. Authorities said they are working to solve the problem, which involves thousands of brick kilns.

Millions of impoverished people will confront significant problems as the climate changes, including severe events, health consequences, social protection, economic stability, mobility, water security, cultural heritage, and other dangers.

Climate change is inextricably linked to global inequality patterns. Climate change harms the most vulnerable individuals the most, although they contribute the least to the catastrophe. Millions of vulnerable people are facing disproportionate problems as the effects of climate change worsen in terms of severe events, health effects, food security, economic assurance, water security, and cultural identity. Female-headed families, children, persons with disabilities, Indigenous Peoples and ethnic minorities, landless tenants, migrant workers, displaced persons, sexual and gender minorities, older people, and other socially excluded groups are all highly prone to disasters. Their vulnerability stems from a variety of factors, including their geographic location, financial, socioeconomic, cultural, and gender status, as well as their access to medical care, decision-making, and justice.

Poor and oppressed people are demanding for more aggressive climate action. Climate change is more than an environmental disaster; it is also a social crisis that requires us to confront issues of inequality on many levels: between rich and poor nations; between men and women; and between generations. For more effective development outcomes, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has underlined the need for climate solutions that adhere to climate justice principles (i.e., recognition, procedural, and distributive justice).

Climate change mitigation initiatives frequently disproportionately affect the most disadvantaged. Climate change adaptation measures can impose a greater financial burden on poor households in the absence of well-designed and supportive policies; for example, policies to expand public transportation or carbon pricing may result in higher public transportation fares, which will disproportionately affect poorer households. Similarly, restricting forestry activities to particular periods of the year might have an impact on indigenous populations that rely on woods for their livelihoods all year. In addition to addressing the distributional effects of decarbonizing economies, there is a need to understand and address social inclusion, cultural, and political economy issues, such as deciding on the types of transitions required (economic, social, etc.) and identifying opportunities to address social inequality during these processes.

Furthermore, communities offer to the problem of improving resilience and tackling climate change unique views, skills, and a wealth of information. Rather than being seen as recipients, they should be treated as participants in developing resilience. Community leaders may define goals, influence ownership, and create and administer investment programmes that are responsive to their community’s needs, according to research and experience.

In creating climate resilience, the IPCC’s newest report highlights the relevance of many types of knowledge such as scientific, Indigenous, and local knowledge. Communities and marginalized people may be connected to higher-level policy, technical, and financial support for locally relevant and successful development outcomes through innovations in climate finance architecture.

RELATED ARTICLES

Not all is lost, silent disease, epaper_24-05-16 isb, pakistan conducts successful training launch of fatah-ii guided rocket system, ‘arrest was illegal’: sci orders release of newsclick founder prabir purkayastha in uapa case, kashmiri journalist asif sultan granted bail in uapa case.

• Privacy policy

An official website of the United States government

The .gov means it’s official. Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

The site is secure. The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

• Publications
• Account settings

Preview improvements coming to the PMC website in October 2024. Learn More or Try it out now .

• Advanced Search
• Journal List
• J Environ Public Health
• v.2022; 2022

Climate Change and Water Crises in Pakistan: Implications on Water Quality and Health Risks

Waseem ishaque.

1 Director Area Study Centre (China), NUML, Islamabad, Pakistan

Rida Tanvir

2 Department of International Relations, NUML, Islamabad, Pakistan

Mudassir Mukhtar

3 HoD Media and Communication Studies, NUML, Islamabad, Pakistan

Associated Data

The data used to support the findings of this study are included within this article.

Pakistan is vulnerable and most affected by adverse impacts of climate change. The study examines the impact of climate change on Pakistan during the year 2022, resulting into unprecedented heatwave and drought in summers followed by the abnormal rains and floods during monsoon season. Agriculture is the backbone of Pakistan's economy, which has been devastated by both drought and floods. While the flood water is gradually receding, the stagnant contaminated water is causing several health risks for the inhabitants. This research argues that water security is the emerging national security challenge for Pakistan. The article investigates the status of water availability vis-a-vis the burgeoning population, agriculture, and other uses of water. Impact of abnormal melting of glaciers, nonavailability of dams for storage of rainwater, and lack of smart means for agriculture water have been examined to empirically validate the arguments.

1. Introduction

Climate change has become international buzzword today and it is “no longer an unfamiliar term, which can be comprehended through personal knowledge, experience, and interactions” [ 1 ]. The phenomenon of climate change is largely attributed to human induced actions, more specifically in terms of emissions of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere [ 2 ]. Therefore, the phenomena of climate change are producing many threats on the Earth surface, ranging from droughts, heavy precipitation, and heatwaves to unprecedented tropical cyclones [ 3 ]. All these disasters have varying degree of impact over different geographical zones, resulting into environmental, health, economic, and social impact. There is no denying the fact that the world we live in today is far more vulnerable and affected by the negative impacts of climate change. However, the greatest health impact is being witnessed in the countries which have least share in greenhouse emissions [ 4 ]. There is also strong realization to attend to climate emergency, which is causing water security issues around the globe, and threatens food security, agricultural yield, food supply, and prices with serious implications on sustainable development, poverty, and inequality. The UNICEF warns about the availability and use of water in a nicely crafted statement that “the world needs to get water smart, and everyone has to realize that they have a role to play, and we cannot afford to wait” [ 5 ]. The “climate change is happening right now, and its effects are being felt around the world” [ 6 ].

Pakistan is vulnerable to the negative consequences of climate change, therefore, susceptible to unusual weather patterns, which can create strategic challenges [ 7 ]. The rising temperatures are causing rapid melting of glaciers in northern areas and unusual rains as seen in monsoon this year have created mayhem through floods, unprecedented in Pakistan's history in last 30 years. United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres stated that Pakistan is facing “the unrelenting effects of epochal levels of rains and flooding” [ 8 ]. The men and material losses are enormous and therefore, Pakistan is likely to face water crisis, food shortages, and serious implications for human security. Reacting to the recent flood situation in Pakistan, the Finance Minister Mr Miftah Ismail stated that “Pakistan is dealing with the worst effects of the climate change, which has caused over US$ 30 billion loss to Pakistan's economy and displacing 33 million people” [ 9 ]. This study explores the impacts of climate change on the availability, usage, and storage of water in Pakistan. The drought and floods of year 2022 have been taken as case study for analyzing the impacts of climate change across Pakistan by sampling both rural and urban areas. Figure 1 shows the sectoral usage of available water in Pakistan.

Sectoral distribution of water consumption in Pakistan.

2. Materials and Methods

The year 2022 is unprecedented in Pakistan's history of last three decades. The summers produced extreme temperatures which resulted in unusual melting of glaciers in northern areas of Pakistan resulting in partial collapse of bridge near Hassanabad in Hunza [ 10 ] as shown in Figure 2 .

Partial collapse of Hassanabad bridge.

Later, the exceptional monsoon rains produced extraordinary floods across the country, with huge men and material losses. The evolving trends indicate that Pakistan is most vulnerable to climate change. The floods have devastated the agriculture, livestock, and infrastructure. The loss to national economy is estimated at US$ 30 billion [ 11 ]. The survey and data analyses of past two and half decades reveal that Pakistan confronted from absolute dry and drought situations to devastating floods to the extent of witnessing both phenomenon in one calendar year as happening in the ongoing year 2022. The study has been completed by considering drought and floods data from primary and secondary sources with particular focus on this year. The field visits to rural and urban areas of Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), and Baluchistan were conducted for obtaining the first-hand information and data on the impacts of flood situation. The relevant officials in the ministry of climate change and meteorological offices were also interviewed and their views have been incorporated in the study for developing a comprehensive picture, conducting rationale analyses, and arriving at workable findings. The study is very contemporary and relevant and expected to provide valuable policy guidelines to relevant government ministries in Pakistan as they are grappling with the ongoing flood situation and rehabilitation process. Figure 3 highlights the vulnerability of Pakistan to climate change risks in the global context, which has been explored further in the study to empirically prove the vulnerabilities and risks.

Climate risk indexing and Pakistan's vulnerability [ 12 ].

3. Findings

3.1. deciphering the impact of climate change on pakistan.

Climate remains the most debated yet least addressed issue for decades. World leaders have often joined heads to tackle this global phenomenon but with little to no success. From motivational speeches to documentaries and movies on the effects of climate change on the Earth has been narrated time and again but to no avail [ 13 ]. The developed countries remain aloof of devastating effects of greenhouse gas emission is causing to the ozone layer. The growing depletion of the ozone layer is resulting in increased Ultraviolet (UV) radiations level on the surface of Earth, which has detrimental impact on human health resulting in cancer and weak immune system [ 14 ]. These UV radiations have devastating effect on the agriculture sector as well due to low yield of the crops [ 15 ]. Scientists have been talking about the infamous “black hole” in the Antarctic region for years. But the recent research in the year 2022 has discovered a hole in the Tropics (Tropics are the regions of the Earth near the equator) which is seven times bigger than the Antarctic region [ 16 ]. The more alarming situation is that, despite all this, the industrialized countries are less concerned by the deteriorating ozone and increase in global warming. Various protocols and initiatives like Kyoto Protocol, Copenhagen accord, and Paris accord had been initiated by the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Due to the Sovereign status of the global order, these agreements were not a binding, therefore, the industrial powers contributing the most carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases to the environment withdrew from these accords as it did not serve their economic interests. The major global contributors of the CO 2 emissions are given in Figure 4 :

10 most polluted countries as of 2020 [ 17 ].

Figure 4 gives an account for the 10 most polluted countries in the world as of 2020. However, China remains leading in that aspect in the year 2022 as well. United States remain on second number with 4.4 billion tons of CO 2 emissions, while India is third producing 2.3 billion tons of CO 2 .

According to Figure 5 , the above countries might not appear as the top 10 global CO 2 contributors, but they fall in the top 10 per capita CO 2 contributors, due to their large-scale reliance on oil and small number of populations. United Nations Secretary General Mr Antonio Gutters paid an official visit to Pakistan on 9-10 September 2002 to show solidarity to flood victims and assess the devastations through field visits and official briefings. He stated that the “nature has attacked Pakistan, which contributes less than 1% of global emissions” [ 19 ] while facing the consequences of developed countries emissions and pollution of climate. He further added that “it was outrageous that action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions was being put on the back burner, today it is Pakistan and tomorrow, it could be your country” [ 20 ], pointing toward industrialized countries. The Global Climate Index (GCI) 2021 has also vindicated Pakistan's vulnerabilities to climate risks as shown in Table 1 below, where Pakistan stands number 8 [ 21 ] in the vulnerability Index. The analysis presented highlights the severe impacts of climate change on Pakistan ranging from extreme heat and drought to dreadful floods. [ 22 ].

10 most polluting countries per capita 2022 [ 18 ].

Global climate index 2021 [ 22 ].

3.2. Examination of Water Calamities in Pakistan

Water is an essential need for ecosystem and human life. In recent times, it has been a growing concern that “precious blue” is becoming inadequate resource for future of human survival [ 23 ]. The amount of fresh water has remained constant on Earth surface since last 100 years; however, the access to water resources is unbalanced [ 24 ] with the rapid population growth, urbanization, and deforestation. Similarly, other issues, such as technological waste, growing industrialization, global warming, and climate change, all are among the key contributing factors for extreme water scarcity [ 25 ]. Although the water scarcity has emerged as a global challenge today, it has severely hit the underdeveloped countries like Pakistan with serious implications on all sectors. Pakistan stands among top 10 severely “high water risk countries” with agriculture as most affected sector [ 26 ]. Moreover, roughly 80% of the population is facing grave shortage of water during at least 1 month in a year which is very alarming. Under scarce surface water, ground water resources (last resort to water supply) are being over utilized. If appropriate measures are not initiated in time with “whole of nation” and “whole of government” approach, the situation would get worse in time to come and the entire country will face the severe crises of water scarcity by 2025, by most projections “Pakistan could run dry” [ 27 ]. The evolving situation has serious implications on the national security of Pakistan, as it will create challenges for sustainable agriculture production which contributes around 23% of Pakistan's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and creates job opportunities for around 42% of population [ 28 ]. According to the report published by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE), Pakistan ranks 14th out of 17 very high-risk countries affected by water scarcity, as more than 1/3rd of available water is wasted due to bad management [ 29 ]. Since 1962, after the formalization of Indus Water Treaty (IWT) with India, per inhabitant water availability has plummeted from 5229 cubic meters to about 1187 in 2017, which is continuously on the downward slide [ 30 ]. The latest UN report on Pakistan's growing population indicates that by 2050, the population is likely to exceed 366 million [ 31 ], which will compound the water demand, which is predicted to reach 274-million-acre feet (MAF) by 2025 against available water supply of 191 MAF. This demand and supply gap would continue to grow year on year basis due to growing population and bad water management [ 32 ]. Figure 6 shows graphical representation of expected water situation in Pakistan by 2025 viz-a-viz the population [ 33 ].

Water availability in Pakistan by 2025 taken from Dr Muhammad Ashraf's research report.

3.3. Analysis on Flood Devastations in Pakistan in Year 2022

Most of Pakistan's economy is dependent on the agricultural sector; however, the industrial sector also contributes a great deal to the economic growth of Pakistan. The growing population is directly impacting the environment as the number of vehicles on roads and the number of industries to accommodate these individuals will also increase. The population of Pakistan at the time of independence was 32.5 million; however, as per the 2021 census, the population has increased to 225 million. Although, Pakistan remains significantly low on the global CO 2 emissions list, yet the effects of global warming have reached Pakistan in a sweeping manner [ 34 ]. The issue that industrialized countries failed to realize that the environment does not belong to a single country and when one country damages the ozone layer, the entire world would pay the price for that. The year 2022 was one such year for Pakistan when the effects of climate change brought heavy rainfalls in Pakistan resulting in major loss of lives, infrastructural damage, and massive economic losses to the tune of US$ 30 billion [ 35 ]. The NASA issued satellite imagery on the flood situation in Pakistan, which is given in Figure 7 .

NASA satellite imagery of floods in Pakistan, September 01, 2022.

Torrential rainfall and flooding have wreaked havoc across Pakistan killing over 1600 people including children and destroying infrastructure. According to statement given by Sherry Rehman Minister for Climate Change: “One third of the country is literally under water, a catastrophe of unknown precedent” The data are given in Table 2 and Figure 8 . Therefore, the devastating floods caused by unprecedented impact of climate change have hit Pakistan the most this year seriously impacting all the sectors of economy and society [ 36 ].

Flood devastation in Swat (KPK) and Baluchistan.

Province wise loss suffered because of heavy rain fall [ 36 ].

3.4. Analysis on Drinking Water Quality in Pakistan

The quality of available drinking water in Pakistan is in a dreadful state. Both surface and subsurface water sources are contaminated and disease prone [ 37 ] in major cities as well as rural areas. In the overall context, per capita the availability of water is decreasing precipitously in Pakistan, and the country is ranked as “water stressed” country and fast heading toward “water scarce” country in coming few years [ 38 ]. The evolving situation also creates challenges for availability of water for agricultural production, and daily usage requirements, therefore intensifying the human security issues in Pakistan [ 39 ]. Water pollution is the most common word today in Pakistan, which can be ascribed to numerous aspects affecting quality of available water [ 40 ]. The common causes are an upsurge in the atmospheric temperatures, with an inbuilt tendency to take heat to the threshold of drinking water, microbes, organic chemicals, nutrients, and heavy metals [ 41 ] . The research findings have discovered other factors as well affecting water quality, which include surface debris, sporadic water supply, improper discharge of water supply, proximity of sewage water to drinking water lines, industrial waste which has now become very common in almost all major cities in Pakistan, discharge of untreated sewage water and highly incompetent technical workers and service providers on water disposal projects [ 42 ]. The pollution of water due to geological and natural factors depends on the presence of different chemicals and their concentration in the geological formations in selected areas, while anthropogenic pollution is caused by extensive use of herbicides and pesticides, coal mining, oil refining, careless disposal of garbage, and septic tanks [ 43 ]. Because of such developments, fresh drinking water is available to hardly 20% of population, while 80% population is content with drinking of contaminated water [ 44 ]. The recent floods have further aggravated the situation as vast swaths of land in Pakistan is still under water, which is now contaminated causing several health issues. The ongoing situation has also impurified subsurface drinking water due to seepage of contaminated flood water deep in Earth, and government's inability for effective disposal of sewage water.

3.5. Water Security

Food and energy security is directly influenced by water security for agrarian society like Pakistan, which contributes more than 23% in national GDP. Agriculture is the backbone of Pakistan as it employs more than 40 million population and guarantor of breadbasket of the country. Therefore, “the loss of major river systems in the past had a domino effect on the thriving civilizations, which became extinct one after the other” [ 45 ]. Pakistan is transitioning from water strained country with declining “per capita fresh drinking water, which is less than 1800 cubic meters per year (m 3 /y) to water scarce country (per capita less than 1000 m 3 /y)” projected by 2035 [ 46 ]. Similarly, river water also receding to 800 m 3 /y is expected in 2026 due to growing population. Therefore, “water security is emerging threat for Pakistan” [ 47 ]. Pakistan is a lower riparian state reliant on the nature and other countries for river's water. India has constructed more than fifty big and small dams on the rivers coming to Pakistan, which are a constant source of irritation in the bilateral relations and vital for Pakistan's water and energy security. Similarly, Afghanistan is also considering construction of dams on Kabul River, which is likely to create two front dilemmas for Pakistan. The situation is even challenging when viewed in the context of availability of only two major dams in Pakistan, Tarbela, and Mangla which were constructed in late 1960s and 1970s; however, “their capacities are reducing due to silting.” While construction of new dams is highly politicized, charged with massive outrage from political parties and masses, therefore, not likely to happen in near future. It is expected that the availability of less water is likely to increase food shortages and create conflict among the federating units and the federation. Similarly, the negative impacts of climate change can cause melting glaciers and unusual pattern of rains, which may lead to flooding as we are witnessing in year 2022.

3.6. Food Security

The Indus Basin, which is the bedrock of agriculture support in Pakistan is seriously threatened by the negative impacts of climate change. The changing weather patterns may result in the reduction of crops yield “(15–20% in cereals) and livestock (20–30%)” [ 48 ], impacting negatively the dairy and poultry as the agriculture and livestock sectors are the “backbone of Pakistan's economy, which contributes 23% to GDP and accounts 60% exports of country” [ 49 ]. The food security is vulnerable to climate change due to reduction in crops and adversarial influences on livestock. Reduced water in real harvesting season is changing the crops patterns and the lands are vulnerable to droughts and flooding as well, which also create massive migrations. The devastations of ongoing floods have created serious food shortages in Pakistan and inflation is also all time high. Pakistan's Prime Minister has already rung the alarm bells by stating that Pakistan is vulnerable to serious food shortage, and it is feared that essential food items may be imported this year and next year as all cultivable lands are under water [ 50 ].

3.7. Implications of Climate Change on the National Mosaic of Pakistan

3.7.1. competition over water resources.

Agriculture-based economies are heavily dependent on the natural resources of the state. This is extremely critical situation for the state to cope with the needs of the masses and economic challenges when there is a scarcity of sustainable renewable and nonrenewable resources. Countries like Pakistan where socioeconomic challenges, such as rising population, lack of political will, internal security issues, urbanization, lack of public policies for managing population, and natural resources are growing at a faster pace as compared with its economic growth. Even the geographical position of the state near the equator is unable to supplement its growing needs and demands. It is an alarming situation for the Pakistan that in the presence of other socioeconomic challenges, the drastic impacts of climate change have also increased its economic and political challenges, while the insufficiency of water reservoirs is creating serious concerns of inter-provincial disharmony. The rising population has not only affected the quantity of water reservoirs but has also depleted the quality in the same manner. The increase in anthropogenic activities is causing water stress on natural reservoirs, while since independence in 1947, the country is facing persistent decline in the availability of water year on year basis due to multitude of factors examined above. According to the estimates of Mr. Jamshed Iqbal Cheema, Chairman Pakistan Agriculture Scientists Association (PASA), in 1947, the capita water availability was 5600 cubic meters, which decreased by 406% from 5260 cubic meters in 1951 to 1038 cubic meters in 2010 and 877 cubic meters in 2020. The PASA estimates that available water will further deplete by 2025 to a level of 660 cubic meters and by 2050 will reach 575 cubic meters as shown in Figure 9 below [ 51 ].

Per capita availability of water reservoirs in Pakistan [ 52 ].

The causes of water shortages in Pakistan exist in two types: (a) incidental causes related to poor water management policies at local level, (b) operational causes include the political conflicts (over the water resources on provincial/institutional level) and the societal differences over water management and distribution. Water issue is not only related with the environmental degradation, but also linked with the social factors as abnormal population growth causes a rise in demand of clean water resources, disturbance of equilibrium between communities, provinces, and water resources distribution. As Pakistan consists of multiple ethnicities and diversified geographical terrain but competition over the access of water resources has often created tensions and conflicts among the federating units. The growing vulnerabilities of communities over the insufficiency of water reservoirs promote lawlessness, antistate sentiments and sense of deprivation among its own nationals. Due to lack of strong monitoring mechanism over channelization of available water, for creating a balanced approach between demand and supply of available water, the population is incentivized for illegal water proliferation. The tacit approval from the water management departments has resulted in water theft cases mostly in Southern Punjab and interior Sindh, as there are many illegal drillings, hidden pipelines, and unrecorded water connections from main supply lines. Such illegal water channels mostly exist adjacent to sanitation systems in cities and rural areas, contaminating the available water. The increase in anthropogenic activities is also causing water stress on natural reservoirs.

Another reason of growing water scarcity is unlawful construction and sanitation systems near or over the water channels, which continuously contaminate water, especially during floods blend these altogether. The role of administration is highly crucial in this matter to control such catastrophic constructions and lessen the pressure on water consumption. The unprotected constructions along rivers, lakes, and streams often cause blockage of natural water channels particularly in monsoon and rainy season resulting into loss of lives, roads network, and infrastructure damage as the enormity of flood damages to clean water channels is immeasurable. In 2010 floods, Pakistan witnessed unimaginable losses as around 20 million people were victims, 1.7 million died, 436 healthcare centers were devastated, 80% food reserves were smashed, 2.9 million households were severely damaged, nearly 1.1 million houses were damaged and $ 9.7 billion economic loss in 135 districts. While the issues of accessing the safe water channels was still in demand after flood (96.8% before vs 96.7%). In year 2022 floods, these losses have increased manifolds and caused unprecedented damages to natural water resources. Around 33 million people are direct victims, death troll rising above 1500, while 110 district of Baluchistan (Quetta, Pishin, Killa Saifullah, Nushki, Jaffarabad, and Washuk), Punjab (Koh e Suleman ranges, Rajanpur, D. G Khan), Sindh (Mirpur Khas, Thatta, Sajawal, and Shaheed Benazir Abad) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Swat and lower/upper Dir) are declared as most calamity hit areas. While 30% water channels are severely affected, and 63% flood victims are struggling for sufficient clean water channels. The economic losses suffered have been estimated to the tune of US$ 30 billion. The analyses amply highlight the insufficiency of available water and demand, compounded by adverse effects of floods during this year.

3.7.2. Negative Impact on Agriculture Sector

Pakistan is heavily relying on agricultural sector for its international exports and domestic food demands, but in the presence of water crisis and conventional irrigation system for its agricultural production, the country will face severe challenges of water scarcity in times to come. According to Global Food and Security Index 2021, Pakistan ranked 80 out of 113 countries [ 53 ] and Global Food and Security Index 2022, it has further slipped by four numbers and now ranks 84 out of 113 countries [ 54 ]. Pakistan lags behind all South Asian countries in food insecurity. The lack of progress in agricultural sector is also linked with the mismanagement of land and water resources, unsatisfactory policies of water governance, exponential population growth, and the negative impacts of climate change. Pakistan has also failed to adopt new strategies like advanced water management in agricultural sector, usage of adaptation methods in yields productions to enhance water consumption in eco-friendly manner, educate farmers about the water recycling and water productivity techniques. While water scarcity is a highly charged political issue in Pakistan as there is a turf war between the provinces and the federation. However, Punjab government took good initiative and introduced national water policy of Pakistan to ensure regularization of water governance system in the country. In the presence of fragile agriculture sector development, climate degradation impacts have worsened the livelihood and yield production. Therefore, on a year-on-year basis, the agriculture yield is squeezing, demand of water is increasing, and unplanned urbanization is resulting into loss of precious agriculture land. The overall impact of these issues is creating negative repercussions on agriculture production and aggravating food security situation in Pakistan.

3.7.3. Water Quality and Public Health Risks

The availability of clean drinking water is biggest national security challenge for Pakistan today. The water proliferation and loss of water supply sources from government record is not only raising the administrative issues but also causing multiple public health problems. The contamination of water along with the presence of sanitary pipelines expose the population with the contagious and chronic diseases like diarrhea, cholera, jaundice, typhoid, hepatitis C, liver cancer, and gastrointestinal infections. The water scarcity in Pakistan has enormous impact on health care system as well as the country is struggling with the diseases that are almost nonexistential in developed countries. The significant findings of this study are that in Pakistan, 50% diseases spread through contaminated water and provide most suitable medium of spread and transfer various bacterial and viral infections from human to human or animals to human as the country is facing the 40% of mortality rate caused by the contaminated water intake, while the frontline victims of waterborne diseases are pregnant women, newly born babies, and early teenage groups. It is also important to note that the primary source of water in Pakistan is sub-surface water channels, which over a period have become the hub of different variants of pathogens. According to World Health Organization (WHO) report, approximately, 2.5 million deaths occur annually in Pakistan from widespread diarrheal diseases caused by bacterial and protozoan agents present in inferior quality of drinking water. Around 80% population is exposed to unsafe water as UNICEF Pakistan has also shared the alarming fact that the well-being and health standards of youngsters are at risk; therefore, each year, 53,000 children under the age of 5 years lose their lives due to unhygienic water as 70% of household work and domestic usage of water in Pakistan is dependent on bacterial water sources. The floods of 2022 have compounded the problems of availability and access to clean drinking water. The field visits to rural and urban Sindh, KPK, and Baluchistan vindicated scarcity and contamination of drinking water, which has been reported by several NGOs and media as well. The stagnant water has been contaminated due to mixing of sewage water and created ideal breading grounds for bacteria causing serious health risks. Nonavailability of compatible medical support, inaccessibility, and nondisposal of flood water have created many health risks and entire population in affected areas is vulnerable to adverse effects of contaminated water. In most areas, the disposal of flood water is left to the nature and the government agencies have demonstrated inability to manage it, therefore, spread of waterborne diseases will continue for prolonged period in future.

4. Policy Recommendations

4.1. legislation for interministerial coordination.

The ministry of climate change should take a lead role and coordinate with all the provinces on the issues of water security. All related agencies and departments should work in harmony with this ministry for synergetic response. Similarly, international engagements would be essential component for successful policy implementation; therefore, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Climate Change should remove overlaps and avoid duplications wherever required.

4.2. Proper Enforcement of Legislation

“Pakistan Water Apportionment Accord 1991” highlights the judicious distribution of Indus River System (IRS) water among the federating units of Pakistan. However, this accord was unable to deal with the conflicts arising due to unfair distribution of water at times. To resolve this issue, “Indus River System Authority” (IRSA) was established in 1992 [ 55 ], through an act of Parliament to work as an institution for Indus water resources regulation and monitoring in Pakistan. However, the problems related to fair water distribution, monitoring and installation system, and the treatment plants lagged during the implementation phase. There always remained issues between Punjab and Sindh regarding unfair water theft. Despite establishment of “Council of Common Interest” (CCI) to resolve the grievances of provinces, but issues persist due to weak implementation mechanism and weak governance. The devolution of power under 18th amendment of the constitution, devolved the water distribution among the rural and urban areas of each province as an internal matter of the provinces; however, water crises remain at large seriously impacting inter-provincial harmony. The Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR) is assigned the task of ensuring clean drinking water across Pakistan. Implementation of water-related policies requires a great deal of realization and urgency on the part of the political elites of Pakistan. The gravity of the issue needs to be addressed as a national emergency, otherwise, Pakistan is vulnerable to water scarcity situations normally witnessed in African continent.

4.3. Judicious Distribution of Water

Being a lower riparian, Sindh is often complaining about the water shortage, especially in the pre-monsoon period each year. The claims made by Sindh government at numerous occasions regarding Punjab stealing its share of water have been denied by Indus River System Authority (IRSA). After the 18th amendment, the allocation of resources to the provinces has been ensured to be judicious; however, the internal distribution of these resources to the rural and urban areas is the responsibility of the provinces. The IRSA is mandated to address, regulate, and develop standard operating procedures (SOPs) for water allocation to the provinces. Regrettably, each province has its own peculiarities in terms of agricultural needs and population, therefore, making the interpretation and implementation of the accord more difficult. To resolve water distribution issues on sustainable basis, the “whole of government approach” is recommended along with on-site consultative visits by the representatives of provincial and federal governments and political leaders for expeditious resolution of conflicting issues. Creating unnecessary fault lines is detrimental to national integration, which should be avoided at all costs.

4.4. Water Treatment Plants and Recycling of Water

Pakistan is in dire need of installing treatment plants as every year, hospitals are flooded with patients, both adults and children suffering from diseases resulting from contaminated water. People living in both urban and rural areas are exposed to contagions and microbial bacteria, which enter the body through water, unsafe for drinking. Not everyone in Pakistan can afford bottled water, therefore, it is the responsibility of the state to provide its citizens with safe drinking water. As we know that Pakistan receives a major portion of heavy rains between the months of July to September, where majority of rainwater ends up in rivers, ponds, while the rest of it results in heavy floods of cities and inhabitants. The government through installation of treatment plants can filter clean drinking water for ensuring public health. Similarly, more wastewater recycling plants are the need of time, which should be installed at priority. In rural areas, wastewater treatment is almost nonexistent, leading to pollution of surface and groundwater [ 56 ]. The government should pay instantaneous attention to the evolving challenges of treatment of wastewater for sparing clean water for drinking purposes and balanced delivery of recycled water to other uses like irrigation.

4.5. Climate Emergency and Disaster Response Mechanism

Pakistan was successful in convincing the world leaders during recently concluded United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) sessions about vulnerabilities to climate risks and the unprecedented impact during year 2022. UN Secretary General Antoni Guterres and US President Joe Biden personally appealed for help for Pakistan to alleviate the suffering and quick rehabilitation of flood victims. It is suggested that Pakistan should consider climate diplomacy as an urgent priority and initiate the process of engagement at bilateral and multilateral levels with developed countries to reduce the vulnerabilities and risks of climate change. Additionally, the disaster response mechanism also needs to be re-energized with strong interagency coordination. The existing structure of national and provincial disaster management authorities should be reinforced through capacity building and professional training. Appropriate equipment for rescue and relief operations also needs to be provided at vulnerable sites for immediate response to save maximum lives. The infrastructure development in flood affected areas should be expedited for which essential resources should be mobilized well in time. Such preparations should be done and rehearsed every year during pre-monsoon season for synergetic and a befitting response to minimize reaction time and save maximum lives.

5. Conclusion

Climate change is the evolving global threat, and Pakistan is most vulnerable from its negative impacts. The year 2022 witnessed extreme drought on one hand, followed by unusual floods over the short span of 2-3 months. Therefore, for Pakistan, alarm bells are ringing to take the holistic stock of situation by declaring climate emergency and adopt “whole of nation” and “whole of government” approaches for a comprehensive response ensuring strong interagency cooperation and capitalizing on the synergetic application of all Elements of National Power (EoNP) for optimum results. It is essential to integrate the respective departments under the umbrella of national and provincial disaster response agencies for harmonious functioning, coordination, and execution. There is dire need to create strong national realization to “conserve, preserve, and proportionally distribute existing water resources” [ 57 ]. Moreover, smart means for spending agriculture water and recycling of water for uses other than drinking would be helpful as such practices have been adopted by most of developed countries. The construction of more water reservoirs is the need of time and current floods across Pakistan are the testimony of this fact. It is felt that this study shall help the relevant government ministries as an academic policy input for addressing water security issues in Pakistan on sustainable basis.

Data Availability

Conflicts of interest.

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

• EXPRESS NEWS
• URDU E-PAPER
• ENGLISH E-PAPER
• SINDHI E-PAPER
• CRICKET PAKISTAN
• EXPRESS LIVE
• CAMPUS GURU
• EXPRESS ENTERTAINMENT
• FOOD TRIBUNE

Climate change: a real threat to Pakistan

There are some efforts in addressing climate change at the global and national levels

The International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) published a 3675-page report earlier this week which should not be ignored due to the hypes surrounding the Ukraine war and a no-trust vote against PM Imran Khan. The report titled ‘Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability’ found that the scientific evidence has become stronger that all life on earth, including human civilisation, is vulnerable to a changing climate. But how?

Food production: There is new knowledge that climate change is affecting food webs. Changes in temperature, rainfall, and extreme weather have increased the frequency and affected agriculture production and patterns. The report referred to the flood damages to crops in Pakistan in 2010 which cost $4.5 billion. It is also estimated that 8-10% of today’s farmland will become climatically unsuitable by 2100. This is very relevant to Pakistan which imports food products regularly from overseas to feed 220 million people in the country.

Water: Climate change will impact water quality and availability causing vulnerabilities to both rural and urban areas. The rural areas will suffer from a drought affecting food production and the livelihood of rural communities. On the other hand, the urban population suffer from water scarcity and heatwaves. The report found that the average mortality from floods, storms and droughts is 9 times higher in Pakistan and other highly vulnerable countries as compared to European countries. This is particularly alarming as various part of the country is suffering from water availability.

Coastal cities: People living in cities face higher risks of heat stress, reduced air quality, lack of water, and food shortages caused by climate change. However, this risk is severe in coastal cities such as Karachi due to the risk from coastal-specific climate hazards. The recent urban flooding in Karachi shows that flood-related vulnerabilities will be spread over rich and poor areas of the city.

There are some efforts in addressing climate change at the global and national levels. However, these efforts are too late and too little. It is clear now that minor, marginal, reactive or incremental changes won’t be sufficient. We need urgent and more ambitious action and, at the same time, rapid and deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. The report found institutional and financial barriers that restrict cities from investing in new parks and green infrastructure to cool down during heatwaves.

What is the solution then? The IPCC report highlights a solutions framework called Climate Resilient Development or CRD.

CRD means cutting back greenhouse gas emissions and conserving biodiversity in energy, industry, health, water, food, urban development, housing and transport policies and practices, in fact everyday decision-making. Its means CRD cannot be achieved with a single action such as planting trees. In fact, it involves fundamental changes to how government and society function, including changes to underlying values, worldviews, ideologies, social structures, political and economic systems in the country. The report admits that the world has no single magic solution and each country has to devise its own path for CRD.

Looking at the climate change risk and vulnerability for Pakistan and the capacities of government, the whole nation should prioritise climate change understanding in their daily life. Therefore, adaptation to climate change for the government means transforming the policies we plan our cities, regions and infrastructure. Adaptation to climate change for society means reducing water usage, using healthy diets, asking for sustainable farming, using cycling and public transport and finding green and clean solutions for our houses.

We have to remember the scientific evidence is clear — climate change is a threat to human well-being and the health of the planet. Any further delay in concerted action at national, provincial and local levels will miss a rapidly closing window to secure a liveable future.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 3 rd , 2022.

Like Opinion & Editorial on Facebook , follow @ETOpEd on Twitter to receive all updates on all our daily pieces.

Comments are moderated and generally will be posted if they are on-topic and not abusive.

For more information, please see our Comments FAQ

Petrol Prices Decrease? | Pakistan IMF Deal | Express Tribune News Headlines 3PM

White House Denies Genocide Claims in Gaza, Calls for Strategic Approach

Wingsuit Daredevils Fly Through Tower Bridge at 153mph! | Breaking News

Omar Ayub Labels Zardari's Speeches 'Copy and Paste,' Backs Imran Khan | Pakistan News | Latest News

India's Chabahar Port Deal with Iran Faces US Sanctions Challenge | Breaking News

Khawaja Asif Sparks Controversy in NA with Call for Treason Trials Against Ayub Khan | Latest News

Hezbollah Warns Israeli Northerners: No Return Amid Gaza Offensive | Breaking News

COAS Asim Munir - Imran Khan - PM Shehbaz | Express Tribune News Headlines 10AM

Express Tribune News Headlines 9PM | PM Shehbaz approves Rs. 23 Billion to AJK | 13 May 2024

Cameron: Banning UK Arms Exports to Israel Will Bolster Hamas

Trump Praises Hannibal Lecter While Criticizing Migrants at New Jersey Rally | Breaking News

Thousands Gather at Portugal’s Fatima Shrine to Pray for Peace | Breaking News

Express Tribune News Headlines 6PM | Petrol Prices Expected to Drop from May 16 | 13 May 2024

Baby Found on Floor at Taylor Swift's Eras Tour Paris Concert | Breaking News

Greta Thunberg's Powerful Protest at Eurovision Sparks Police Response | Latest News

Netanyahu Highlights Heavy Price of War, Calls for Unity

Protests Paralyze Azad Kashmir as Strike Enters Third Day | Latest News

The heavy FED toll on fruit-beverage industry

Consistency and complication

The summer of student protests against Gaza war

Another perspective: Urdu medium social entrepreneurship

From sci-fi dreams to everyday realities: the impact of AI

Women and youth support Modi and the BJP

‘Normal country’ doesn’t need IMF

No strategic SOEs, minister pushes for privatization

Pakistan delegation visit to Kandahar ‘cancelled’ by Taliban

AJK situation comes to national spotlight

Making IMF loan a game changer

FBR proposes charging non-filers Rs90 out of every Rs100 mobile recharge

Modi’s Pakistan doctrine

• Life & Style
• Prayer Timing Pakistan
• Ramazan Calendar Pakistan
• Weather Forecast Pakistan
• Online Advertising
• Subscribe to the Paper
• Style Guide
• Privacy Policy
• Code of ethics

This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, redistributed or derived from. Unless otherwise stated, all content is copyrighted © 2024 The Express Tribune.

Climate change made the deadly heatwaves that hit millions of highly vulnerable people across Asia more frequent and extreme

Throughout April and continuing into May 2024, extreme record-breaking heat led to severe impacts across the Asian continent.

From Israel, Palestine, Lebanon and Syria, in the West, to Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines in the East, large regions of Asia experienced temperatures well above 40°C for many days. The heat was particularly difficult for people living in refugee camps and informal housing, as well as for outdoor workers.

Heatwaves are arguably the deadliest type of extreme weather event and while the death toll is often underreported, hundreds of deaths have been reported already in most of the affected countries, including Palestine, Bangladesh, India, Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia and the Philippines. The heat also had a large impact on agriculture, causing crop damage and reduced yields, as well as on education, with holidays having to be extended and schools closed in several countries, affecting millions of students. 

Extreme heat in South Asia during the pre-monsoon season is becoming more frequent. Two previous World Weather Attribution studies focused on extreme heat events in the region: the 2022 India and Pakistan heatwave and the 2023 humid heatwave that hit India, Bangladesh, Lao PDR and Thailand . Despite differences in the nature and impact of the events (drier heat in 2022 leading to widespread loss of harvest, and humid heat in 2023 with greater impacts on  people), both studies found that human-induced climate change influenced the events, making them around 30 times more likely and much hotter.

Scientists from Lebanon, Sweden, Malaysia, the Netherlands, the United States  and the United Kingdom collaborated to assess to what extent human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the extreme heat in three Asian regions: 1) West Asia, including Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Palestine and Jordan; 2) the Philippines in East Asia; and 3) South and Southeast Asia, including India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Lao PDR, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia. 

Using published peer-reviewed methods , the scientists analysed how human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the 3-day April heatwave in West Asia and a 15-day April heatwave in the Philippines. Figure 1 shows these two regions, outlined in blue, while figure 2 shows the South Asia region. For this region, the analysis focused on observed weather data, but not climate models, as the affected region largely overlaps with the study areas of the previous studies. The observational data for the whole month of April confirmed that the role of climate change is likely of similar magnitude to the heatwaves studied in 2022 and 2023, and the results of a full attribution analysis would not be significantly different. 

Main Findings

• The heatwave exacerbated already precarious conditions faced by internally displaced people, migrants and those in refugee camps and conflict zones across West Asia. In Gaza, extreme heat worsened the living conditions of 1.7 million displaced people. The heatwave added pressure to the many challenges already faced by people in refugee camps and conflict zones, such as water shortages, difficulties to access medicines and poor living conditions for the large population that lives in makeshift tents that trap heat. With limited institutional support and options to adapt, the heat increases health risks and hardship. 
• The extreme heat has forced thousands of schools to close down in South and Southeast Asia. These regions have previously also incurred school lockdowns during COVID-19, increasing the education gap faced by children from low-income families, enhancing the risk of dropouts, and negatively impacts the development of human capital.
• Heat impacts certain groups like construction workers, transport drivers, farmers, fishermen etc. disproportionately. It both impacts their livelihoods and causes a reduction in income, and results in personal health risks.
• In the current climate, warmed by 1.2°C since pre-industrial times due to human activities, this kind of extreme heat event is not very rare. In West Asia, the chance of it occurring in any given year is around 10% – or once every 10 years. In the Philippines, the chance of such an event happening in any given year is also around 10% – or once every 10 years under the current El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions, and a 1-in-20 year event, overall, without the influence of El Niño. In the larger South Asia region, an extremely warm April such as this one is a somewhat rarer event, with a 3% probability of happening in a given year – or once every 30 years.
• To estimate the influence that human-caused climate change has had on extreme heat in West Asia and the Philippines, we combine climate models with observations. Observations and models both show a strong increase in likelihood and intensity. In the Philippines, the change in likelihood is so large that the event would have been impossible without human-caused climate change. In West Asia, climate change increased the probability of the event by about a factor of 5.
• In terms of intensity, we estimate that a heatwave such as this one in West Asia is today about 1.7°C warmer than it would have been without the burning of fossil fuels. In the Philippines the intensity increase due to human-induced climate change is about 1.2°C.
• We also look at the role of the ENSO. In the Philippines, we find that the current El Niño made the heatwave about 0.2°C hotter. In West Asia, on the other hand, we do not find any influence of ENSO in the event, which is consistent with previous research.  
• If the world warms to 2°C above pre-industrial global mean temperatures, in both regions the likelihood of the extreme heat would increase further, by a factor of 2 in West Asia and 5 over the Philippines, while the temperatures will become another 1°C hotter in West Asia and 0.7°C hotter in the Philippines.
• In South Asia, a region that we have studied twice in the last two years, our analysis was simpler and based only on observations. Similarly to what we found in previous studies, we observe a strong climate change signal in the 2024 April mean temperature. We find  that these extreme temperatures are now about 45 times more likely and 0.85ºC hotter. These results align with our previous studies, where we found that climate change made the extreme heat about 30 times more likely and 1ºC hotter. 
• Existing heatwave action plans and strategies are challenged by rapidly growing cities, increase in informal settlements and exposed populations, reduction in green spaces and rise in energy demands. While many cities have been implementing solutions like cool roofs, nature based infrastructure design, and adherence to climate risk informed building codes, there is limited focus on retrofitting and upgrading of existing buildings and settlements, with infrastructure deficits (e.g. asbestos roofs), to make them more liveable.
• Some countries such as India have comprehensive heat action plans in place, yet to protect some of the most vulnerable people, these must be expanded with mandatory regulations, such as workplace interventions for all workers to address heat stress, such as scheduled rest breaks, fixed work hours, and rest-shade-rehydrate programs (RSH) are necessary, but yet to become part of worker protection guidelines in the affected regions.
• The recurrent heat events and associated impacts every year in these regions in the past few years have enabled heatwaves to be recognised as a serious hazard of concern in most countries, with proper guidelines and action plans in place. At the same time, cross-sectoral collaborative strategies that focus on providing immediate relief during the hot days are needed. 

Cold spells

Unusual cold spells can occur even in a warming world, and cause disruption to transport, energy & food supplies.

Drought affects people in many ways, from reduced water & food supplies to increasing the risk of wildfires.

Extreme rainfall

Rainfall events from a major storm or hurricane, or intense localised downpours can lead to flooding in any type of location.

Heatwaves can be particularly dangerous to humans, and occur all over the world with increasing intensity.

• Download the full study: Climate change made the deadly heatwaves that hit millions of highly vulnerable people across  Asia more frequent and extreme (35 pages, 4.39 MB)

Guide for journalists

• Reporting extreme weather and climate change: a guide for journalists  – in a number of languages)

You may also be interested in…

• Extreme Sahel heatwave that hit highly vulnerable population at the end of Ramadan would not have occurred without climate change
• Dangerous humid heat in southern West Africa about 4°C hotter due to climate change
• Extreme poverty renders Madagascar highly vulnerable to underreported extreme heat that would not have occurred without human-induced climate change
• Strong influence of climate change in uncharacteristic early spring heat in South America

• Election 2024
• Entertainment
• Newsletters
• Photography
• Personal Finance
• AP Investigations
• AP Buyline Personal Finance
• AP Buyline Shopping
• Press Releases
• Israel-Hamas War
• Russia-Ukraine War
• Global elections
• Asia Pacific
• Latin America
• Middle East
• Election Results
• Delegate Tracker
• AP & Elections
• Auto Racing
• 2024 Paris Olympic Games
• Movie reviews
• Book reviews
• Personal finance
• Financial Markets
• Business Highlights
• Financial wellness
• Artificial Intelligence
• Social Media

Pakistan records its wettest April since 1961 with above average rainfall

Youngsters wade through a flooded street caused by heavy rain in Peshawar, Pakistan, Monday, April 15, 2024. Lightening and heavy rains killed dozens of people, mostly farmers, across Pakistan in the past three days, officials said Monday, as authorities declared a state of emergency in the country’s southwest following an overnight rainfall to avoid any further casualties and damages. (AP Photo/Muhammad Sajjad)

• Copy Link copied

ISLAMABAD (AP) — Pakistan has recorded its wettest April since 1961, with more than double the usual rainfall for the month, the national weather center said.

The country experienced days of extreme weather in April that killed scores of people and destroyed property and farmland. Experts said Pakistan witnessed heavier rains because of climate change .

Last month’s rainfall for Pakistan was a 164% increase from the usual level for April, according to a report published Friday by Pakistan’s national weather center.

The intense downpours affected the country’s northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the southwestern Baluchistan provinces the most.

Devastating summer floods in 2022 killed at least 1,700 people, destroyed millions of homes, wiped out swaths of farmland, and caused billions of dollars in economic losses in a matter of months.

At one point, a third of the country was underwater. Pakistani leaders and many scientists worldwide blamed climate change for the unusually early and heavy monsoon rains.

Explore historical and projected climate data, climate data by sector, impacts, key vulnerabilities and what adaptation measures are being taken. Explore the overview for a general context of how climate change is affecting Pakistan.

• Climate Change Overview
• Country Summary
• Climatology
• Trends & Variability
• Mean Projections (CMIP6)
• Extreme Events
• Historical Natural Hazards
• Sea Level Rise

Historical Hazards

Pakistan faces some of the highest disaster risk levels in the world, ranked 18 out of 191 countries by the 2019 Inform Risk Index . This risk is driven particularly by the nation’s exposure to earthquakes and the risks of internal conflict. However, Pakistan also has high exposure to flooding, including, riverine, flash, and coastal, as well as some exposure to tropical cyclones and their associated hazards, and drought. Disaster risk in Pakistan is also driven by its social vulnerability. Pakistan’s vulnerability ranking (37 out of 191) is driven by its high rates of multidimensional poverty. Pakistan scores slightly better in terms of its coping capacity. 

This section provides a summary of key natural hazards and their associated socioeconomic impacts in a given country. It allows for a quick evaluation of most vulnerable areas through the spatial comparison of natural hazard data with development data, thereby identifying exposed livelihoods and natural systems.

The charts provide overview of the most frequent natural disaster in a given country and understand the impacts of those disasters on human populations.

Climate change is now recognized to have a significant impact on disaster management efforts and pose a significant threat to the efforts to meet the growing needs of the most vulnerable populations. The demands of disaster risk management are such that concise, clear, and reliable information is crucial. The information presented here offers insight into the frequency, impact and occurrence of natural hazards. Source (PDF)

• VIEW BY MAP
• VIEW BY LIST

World experienced hottest April on record, climate monitor says

Sweltering Earth endures 11-month warming streak as global air and sea surface temperatures soar.

The world experienced its hottest April on record, continuing an 11-month streak of unprecedented high temperatures, the European Union’s climate change monitoring service has said.

Each month since June 2023 has ranked as the planet’s hottest on record , compared with the corresponding month in previous years, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said on Wednesday.

Keep reading

Kenya, tanzania brace for cyclone hidaya as flood death toll rises, heatwaves set more records across europe, asia and us, climate change threatens eu with mass deaths and huge costs: report, how are cities responding to extreme heat.

The exceptionally warm conditions occurred despite a weakened El Nino – the weather phenomenon that warms the Pacific Ocean and leads to a rise in global temperatures – leading the researchers to blame human-induced climate change.

April was 1.58 degrees Celsius (2.84 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than an estimate for the same month in the 1850-1900 pre-industrial period, C3S said.

While there are temperature variations associated with natural cycles such as El Nino, “the extra energy trapped into the ocean and the atmosphere by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases will keep pushing the global temperature towards new records”, said C3S director Carlo Buontempo.

Average temperatures over the last 12 months surpassed the crucial 1.5C (2.7F) warming threshold set by the 2015 Paris climate agreement, which is calculated over decades, meaning it remains within reach.

In 2015, almost 200 governments signed an agreement to phase out fossil fuels in favour of renewable energy in the second half of the century. Last year, the United Nations said the world is not on track to meet the long-term goals of that deal, including capping global warming at 1.5C.

Weather extremes across the globe

Eastern Europe and most of Africa particularly heated up in April, C3S said, backing reports of record heatwaves that forced schools to shutter in South Sudan and saw countries like Slovakia record their highest daytime temperatures above 30C (86F) in spring.

Across the world, April marked a month of diverging extremes in the form of floods and droughts.

Parts of South and Southeast Asia, from Bangladesh to Vietnam, were struck by scorching heatwaves, while southern Brazil, the United Arab Emirates, and the East African countries of Kenya and Tanzania have suffered deadly flooding.

Pakistan recorded double the normal monthly rainfall in April, making it the country’s wettest month in more than 60 years.

Much of Europe witnessed a wetter-than-usual April but southern Spain, Italy, and the Western Balkans were drier than average, C3S reported.

Meanwhile, eastern Australia was hit with heavy rains, although most of the country saw drier than normal conditions, as did northern Mexico.

Average sea surface temperatures were also unusually high, breaking records in April for the 13th consecutive month, despite the weakening El Nino, the agency said.

Warmer oceans threaten marine life, and contribute to a hotter atmosphere, making water bodies less effective in absorbing planet-heating greenhouse gas emissions.

Advertisement

Supported by

How Biden’s Trade War With China Differs From Trump’s

The president is trying a targeted approach, with allies, to beat Beijing in the race to own the clean energy future. Those weren’t his predecessor’s goals.

• Share full article

By Jim Tankersley

Jim Tankersley has covered tariffs and China policy across several presidential administrations.

Joseph R. Biden Jr. ran for the White House as a sharp critic of President Donald J. Trump’s crackdown on trade with China. In office, though, he has taken Mr. Trump’s trade war with Beijing and escalated it, albeit with a very different aim.

The two men, locked in a rematch election this fall, share a rhetorical fondness for beating up on China’s economic practices, including accusing the Chinese of cheating at global trade. They also share a building-block policy for countering Beijing: hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs, or taxes, on Chinese imports. Those tariffs were first imposed by Mr. Trump and have been maintained by President Biden.

On Tuesday, Mr. Biden announced that he is increasing some of those tariffs. That includes quadrupling electric vehicle tariffs to 100 percent, tripling certain levies on steel and aluminum products to 25 percent, and doubling the rate on semiconductors to 50 percent.

But Mr. Biden’s trade war differs from Mr. Trump’s in important ways. Mr. Trump was trying to bring back a broad swath of factory jobs outsourced to China. Mr. Biden is seeking to increase production and jobs in a select group of emerging high-tech industries — including clean energy sectors, like electric vehicles, that Mr. Trump shows little interest in cultivating.

Mr. Biden has pulled more policy levers, some of them created by Mr. Trump. He has imposed more restrictions on trade with China, including limiting sales of American technology to Beijing, while funneling federal subsidies to American manufacturers trying to compete with Chinese production.

And in a sharp break from Mr. Trump’s go-it-alone posture, Mr. Biden’s strategy relies on bringing international allies together to counter China through a mix of domestic incentives and, potentially, coordinated tariffs on Chinese goods.

As they compete for the White House again, Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are both promising to further increase trade pressure on China, which both men accuse of unfair trade practices that disadvantage American workers. Here is how their plans overlap, and where they diverge sharply.

Mr. Trump’s plan includes more tariffs and less trade.

Mr. Trump broke decades of political consensus by pushing aggressive restrictions on trade with China as president. He imposed tariffs on more than $360 billion worth of Chinese products, including toys, electronics and household furnishings, drawing retaliatory tariffs from Beijing.

In 2020, he struck an agreement with Chinese officials that called for China to increase its purchases of exported goods from America, including agricultural products, and carry out a series of economic reforms. China came nowhere close to fulfilling those terms . Lael Brainard, the director of Mr. Biden’s National Economic Council, told reporters this week that the deal “did not deliver on its promises.”

Mr. Trump has pledged new efforts to sever the nations’ trading relationship if he is elected to a second term. Those include barriers to investment between the two countries, along with bans on imports of Chinese steel, electronics and pharmaceuticals. He has also proposed an additional 10 percent tariff on all imports to the United States, not just those from China. And he has criticized Mr. Biden.

Chinese officials were “petrified of me putting on additional tariffs,” Mr. Trump told CNBC in March. “And we don’t use that, China is right now our boss. They are the boss of the United States, almost like we’re a subsidiary of China, and that’s because the Biden administration has been so weak.”

Mr. Biden is building on his predecessor’s efforts.

Mr. Biden was once a critic of Mr. Trump’s tariffs. “President Trump may think he’s being tough on China,” Mr. Biden said in a 2019 speech , as a candidate for president, “but all he has delivered is more pain for American farmers, manufacturers and consumers.”

Early in Mr. Biden’s administration, his aides debated rolling back many of Mr. Trump’s taxes on Chinese imports to ease the pain of rapid price increases. They ultimately decided against it. Instead, Mr. Biden will announce on Tuesday that he is increasing tariffs on about $18 billion worth of Chinese imports, including solar cells, ship-to-shore cranes and certain medical technologies.

His administration has also imposed new restrictions on exports of American semiconductors and chip-making materials to China, and it has taken the first step to cracking down on imported Chinese smart-car technologies .

Administration officials offer economic rationale for all of those moves. But Mr. Biden is also responding to swing-state political pressures — and seeking to outflank Mr. Trump on the China issue. Last month, he called for higher taxes on Chinese heavy metal imports in a speech to steelworkers in Pennsylvania, a crucial state where polls show he is struggling to overcome voter anxiety about the economy.

And while Biden aides say his tariff approach is more targeted — and, by extension, more effective — than Mr. Trump’s, the president has notably decided not to roll back any of the original tariffs that Mr. Trump imposed on Chinese products.

A greener war, with allies this time.

Mr. Biden has tailored his policy, though. He has consciously coupled new restrictions on China trade with the strategic investments, in the form of government spending and tax credits, that he has used to entice new factory production in a handful of targeted sectors.

Perhaps no product better exemplifies the divergence between Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump on trade policy than electric vehicles. Mr. Trump sees them as a scourge, and has said efforts to accelerate their adoption will result in an “assassination” of American jobs .

Mr. Biden has signed multiple laws meant to supercharge electric vehicle production and consumption in the United States, including an infrastructure bill with funding for 500,000 charging stations and a climate law with lucrative incentives to make and sell the vehicles in the United States. They are part of an ambitious industrial strategy to build up American factory capacity for a host of clean energy technologies meant to fight climate change and to dominate advanced manufacturing industries globally for decades to come.

Mr. Biden is increasingly worried that a flood of low-cost electric cars and other goods from China could undermine those efforts, and he is using trade policy to protect his industrial investments. His tariff increases planned for Tuesday include a quadrupling of the rate on imported electric vehicles, to 100 percent.

And while Mr. Trump antagonized allies by imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum from Japan, the European Union and elsewhere, the president has sought to bring together a coalition of wealthy democracies to battle China in clean energy. His administration led an effort at the Group of 7 summit last year to outline a harmonized strategy of subsidies to compete with China’s state funding for new technologies.

Many current and former administration officials hope that cooperation will now extend to tariffs as well, starting with Europe, which is conducting its own investigations of Chinese trade practices and appears poised to raise its existing tax rate on imported Chinese electric vehicles.

Jim Tankersley writes about economic policy at the White House and how it affects the country and the world. He has covered the topic for more than a dozen years in Washington, with a focus on the middle class. More about Jim Tankersley