economy usa presentation

An official website of the United States government

U.S. Economy at a Glance

Perspective from the bea accounts.

BEA produces some of the most closely watched economic statistics that influence decisions of government officials, business people, and individuals. These statistics provide a comprehensive, up-to-date picture of the U.S. economy. The data on this page are drawn from featured BEA economic accounts.

National Economic Accounts

Gross domestic product (second estimate), corporate profits (preliminary estimate), second quarter 2024.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2024, according to the "second" estimate. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.4 percent. The increase in the second quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and business investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

• Current release:  August 29, 2024
• Next release:  September 26, 2024

Real GDP: Percent change from preceding quarter, Q2 '24 (2nd) HP

Personal Income and Outlays, July 2024

Personal income increased $75.1 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in July. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $54.8 billion (0.3 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $103.3 billion (0.5 percent) and consumer spending increased $103.8 billion (0.5 percent). Personal saving was $598.8 billion and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 2.9 percent in July.

• Current release:  August 30, 2024
• Next release:  September 27, 2024

Personal Income and Outlays, July '24

International Economic Accounts

U.s. international transactions, 1st quarter 2024 and annual update.

The U.S. current-account deficit widened by $15.9 billion, or 7.2 percent, to $237.6 billion in the first quarter of 2024, according to statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The revised fourth-quarter deficit was $221.8 billion. The first-quarter deficit was 3.4 percent of current-dollar gross domestic product, up from 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter.

• Current Release:  June 20, 2024
• Next Release:  September 19, 2024

U.S. International Transactions, 1st Quarter 2024 and Annual Update CHART 1

U.S. International Investment Position, 1st Quarter 2024 and Annual Update

The U.S. net international investment position, the difference between U.S. residents’ foreign financial assets and liabilities, was -$21.28 trillion at the end of the first quarter of 2024, according to statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Assets totaled $35.78 trillion, and liabilities were $57.06 trillion. At the end of the fourth quarter of 2023, the net investment position was -$19.85 trillion (revised).

• Current Release:  June 26, 2024
• Next Release:  September 25, 2024

U.S. International Investment Position, 1st Quarter '24 and Annual Update CHART

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, XXXX XXXX

The U.S. goods and services trade deficit increased in July 2024 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit increased from $73.0 billion in June (revised) to $78.8 billion in July, as imports increased more than exports. The goods deficit increased $5.6 billion in July to $103.1 billion. The services surplus decreased $0.2 billion in July to $24.3 billion.

• Current Release:  September 4, 2024
• Next release:  October 8, 2024

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, July '24 Chart

New Foreign Direct Investment in the United States, 2023

Expenditures by foreign direct investors to acquire, establish, or expand U.S. businesses totaled $148.8 billion in 2023 (chart 1), according to preliminary statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Expenditures decreased $57.4 billion, or 28 percent, from $206.2 billion (revised) in 2022 and were below the annual average of $265.6 billion for 2014–2022. As in previous years, acquisitions of existing U.S. businesses accounted for most of the expenditures.

• Current release:  July 12, 2024
• Next release:  July 2025

New Foreign Direct Investment in the United States, '23 Chart

Regional Economic Accounts

Gross domestic product by state and personal income by state, 1st quarter 2024.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in 39 states and the District of Columbia in the first quarter of 2024, with the percent change ranging from 5.0 percent at an annual rate in Idaho to –4.2 percent in South Dakota.

• Current Release:  June 28, 2024
• Next Release:  September 27, 2024

Gross Domestic Product by State and Personal Income by State, 1st Quarter '24 CHART

Personal Income by County and Metropolitan Area, 2022

In 2022, personal income, in current dollars, increased in 1,964 counties, decreased in 1,107, and was unchanged in 43. Personal income increased 2.1 percent in the metropolitan portion of the United States and 1.3 percent in the nonmetropolitan portion.

• Current Release:  November 16, 2023
• Next Release:  November 14, 2024

Personal Income by County and Metropolitan Area, 2022 CHART

Personal Consumption Expenditures by State, 2022

Nationally, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), in current dollars, increased 9.2 percent in 2022 after increasing 12.9 percent in 2021. PCE increased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, with the percent change ranging from 11.8 percent in Idaho to 6.4 percent in Louisiana.

• Current Release: October 4, 2023
• Next release: October 3, 2024

Personal Consumption Expenditures by State: Percent Change, '21-'22

United States Economy

Key economic indicators, economic snapshot, our forecasts, united states economic overview.

The United States has a diverse, highly developed and private-sector-led economy, which is the largest in the world in nominal GDP terms and is characterized by high levels of productivity, technological innovation, and competitiveness. Other key economic strengths include a flexible labor market , relatively solid demographics compared to other rich nations, and the use of the dollar—the world's reserve currency. U.S. economic data is strong: In the decade to 2023, the United States boasted real GDP growth of 2.3%, well above the G7 average of 1.8%. However, the U.S. also has its weaknesses. Income inequality is the highest among its peers, politics and society at large are bitterly polarized, and the fiscal position is weak.

The country boasts many of the world's largest and most successful corporations. The technology sector, centered in places like Silicon Valley, has played a pivotal role in driving innovation and global competitiveness. In recent decades, the United States has seen a shift towards a service-based economy, benefitting from a vast domestic consumer base . Services, such as finance, healthcare, education, and entertainment, now account for a substantial portion of GDP and employment.

International trade is a cornerstone of the U.S. economy, with the nation being both a major importer and exporter of goods and services. That said, trade policy has turned more protectionist in recent years, with the country pulling out of talks to join the CPTPP trade agreement and locked in a trade and technology war with China.

Under President Biden, the country has implemented a more state-led approach to economic management that focuses on boosting domestic manufacturing and ensuring the security of supply chains. Initiatives have included green-energy subsidies and tax breaks, fiscal incentives for semiconductor production, and domestic content requirements for government procurement.

Income inequality, volatile politics and a mounting fiscal burden remain economic drags. Additionally, despite its active role in trade, the U.S. has maintained a trade deficit for several decades. Moreover, climate change, healthcare costs, and the aging population pose long-term economic concerns.

When looking at the United States' economic forecasts, our analysts expect the nation's outperformance relative to other major economies to continue over our forecast horizon. Economic diversification provides stability and resilience, helping the economy weather challenges such as economic downturns and global crises.

The United States' economy in numbers:

Nominal GDP of USD 25,744 billion in 2022.

GDP per capita of USD 77,187 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.

Average real GDP growth of 2.3% over the last decade.

Economic structure:

International trade:, economic growth:, fiscal policy:, unemployment:, monetary policy:, exchange rate:.

55 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.

Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 71 expert analysts.

United States Economic Data

Interested in United States economic reports, analysis and data? FocusEconomics provides data, forecasts and analysis for hundreds of countries and commodities. Request your free sample report now.

Is the US economy growing or declining? Are prices increasing? Are people finding jobs?

Table of Contents

What is the current state of the us economy.

What is the unemployment rate?

Unemployment rate

Is the cost of living rising?

Inflation rate

Is the US economy growing or declining?

Economic growth

What is the role of the government in the economy?

Spending on the economy

Agencies and elected officials.

More on the economy from USAFacts

Explore economy data trends

There are many ways to measure the American economy: analyzing US gross domestic product (GDP) over time, recent jobs and employment reports, investments in small businesses, wealth distribution, price inflation, and more. This page provides some of these measures to answer fundamental economic questions and shows how data helps develop an understanding of how the economy is changing.

In December 2023 , the unemployment rate was 3.7% .

The unemployment rate has stayed under 4% since january 2022..

Published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the official unemployment rate is the number of active job seekers divided by the labor force. The BLS defines active job seekers as people who are not working and have submitted a job application at least once in the past four weeks. Anyone who has a job at the time of the survey, even if it is part-time, seasonal, or temporary, is considered employed and is not included in the unemployment rate.

Although the unemployment rate is often reported at the national level, it is not uniform when breaking it down by location. State unemployment rates are usually published two weeks after the national unemployment rate is announced.

In December 2023, prices were 3.4% higher compared to the same month the previous year.

The inflation rate has been lower than 4% since june 2023..

There are many ways of measuring inflation , but one of the most common measures is the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U), which is produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The CPI-U is an index-value of the price paid by urban consumers for a “representative basket of goods and services” or the most common goods and services Americans buy in an average month. The agency surveys 24,000 people every three months about their spending habits, classifying spending in more than 200 categories.

Price inflation is the percent increase in this index, year-over-year. (If the percentage is negative, it is called price deflation) In other words, it shows how much prices have changed compared to the same month in the previous year, as a percentage.

Although prices may be growing or shrinking on average, changes may not be uniform when breaking it down by spending categories. This means that everybody experiences inflation differently . Since food and energy categories are typically much more volatile than the other parts of the CPI, economists often focus more on a metric called the “core” CPI which excludes these two categories. However, every household or personal budget is different.

In the third quarter of 2023 , annual real GDP growth in the United States was 4.9% , up from 2.1% the previous quarter.

Among states, kansas led with the highest annual gdp growth in the third quarter of 2023 at 9.7%..

Gross domestic product (GDP) is used to estimate the size of the US economy. It is calculated as the total value of all goods and services produced in the US. It includes the total dollar amount of consumption (products like cellphones and bread), government spending (on things like infrastructure and the military), business investment (a manufacturer building a new factory), and the net effect of trade (subtracting imports from exports). The Bureau of Economic Analysis is the agency responsible for calculating GDP.

Most economists are interested in the rate of growth. Growth in the inflation-adjusted GDP ( or "real GDP") tends to signal a positive economic outlook, while slowing growth may mean a recession is coming.

Although the nation’s economy may be growing or shrinking on average, this growth is not uniform by location.

In fiscal year 2020, governments spent a combined total of $702.4 billion on the economy.

That’s $2,119 per person..

USAFacts categorizes government budget data to allocate spending appropriately, and to arrive at the estimate presented here. Government spending on the economy tends to increase in times of economic uncertainty. Recent increases in spending went toward supporting the financial sector in 2009 during the Great Recession and small businesses in 2020 during the pandemic.

The economic spending shown here is limited to support of general commerce, local development, technology infrastructure, and the financial sector. All government spending contributes to the economy overall.

Government revenue and expenditures are based on data from the Office of Management and Budget, the Census Bureau, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Each is published annually, although due to collection times, state and local government data are not as current as federal data. Thus, when combining federal, state, and local revenues and expenditures, the most recent year for a combined number may be delayed.

Economy articles

Who are the us’s top trade partners.

Over 50% of 2023 US trade involved one of five partners: Mexico, Canada, China, Germany, and Japan.

What is the Consumer Price Index, and what does it mean for the economy?

The CPI is a key indicator for the state of the economy.

What is inflation and how is it measured?

One of the most common economic indicators helps contextualize how much a dollar can buy.

What is gross domestic product, or GDP?

GDP is an overall measure of economic activity. How is it calculated and used?

Economy data

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The economic outlook for 2023 to 2033 in 16 charts.

At a Glance

The Congressional Budget Office regularly publishes its baseline projections of what the federal budget and the economy would look like in the current year and the following 10 years if current laws governing federal taxes and spending generally remained unchanged. This report summarizes—with an emphasis on graphic presentation—the information about CBO’s economic forecast that was published in The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2033 (February 2023).

• Economic output (gross domestic product, or GDP) is projected to stop growing early this year in response to last year’s sharp rise in interest rates. Output is projected to start growing again during the second half of 2023 as falling inflation allows the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates, causing rebounds in sectors of the economy that are sensitive to interest rates.
• Inflation was higher in 2021 and 2022 than in any other years of the previous four decades: 5.7 percent and 5.5 percent, respectively, as measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures. The annual growth of that price index is projected to remain above the Federal Reserve’s long-term goal of 2 percent through 2024 and then fall near to that goal by 2026.
• Interest rates on Treasury securities are projected to rise further in early 2023 and then gradually fall beginning in late 2023.
• The unemployment rate is projected to increase from 3.6 percent at the end of last year to 5.1 percent at the end of 2023 before gradually declining to 4.5 percent by the end of 2027.

CBO’s projections for the federal budget depend in part on the agency’s projection of the growth of nominal GDP. (That growth reflects both inflation and the growth of real GDP—that is, GDP adjusted to remove the effects of inflation.) Since May 2022, when CBO published its previous baseline projections, the agency has lowered its projection of the growth of nominal GDP in 2023 from 4.5 percent to 3.1 percent. However, CBO is now projecting much faster growth of nominal GDP in the 2024–2026 period than it did last May; after 2026, growth rates for nominal GDP are roughly similar to those in the May projections. CBO has increased, on average, its projections of short- and long-term interest rates over the next five years, mostly because it has raised its near-term projections of inflation since May.

The economic projections described in this report reflect economic developments and information available as of December 6, 2022. The historical data shown in the charts and discussed in the text reflect more recent fourth-quarter data available from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and other sources in early February 2023. Some of the charts portray the difference in underlying data by using thin lines for actual values before 2023 and thick lines for projected values and by showing a break between those lines.

In addition, some of the charts use shaded vertical bars to indicate periods of recession. (A recession extends from the peak of a business cycle to its trough.)

Unless this report indicates otherwise, all years referred to are calendar years.

Numbers in the text and charts may not add up to totals because of rounding.

The projections of output, prices, labor market measures, interest rates, and income used for the Congressional Budget Office’s budget projections are available on CBO’s website ( www.cbo.gov/data/budget-economic-data#4 ).

The Economic Outlook for 2023 to 2033 in 16 Charts

This report summarizes the Congressional Budget Office’s February 2023 economic projections, which the agency used in updating its projections of federal revenues and spending through 2033. CBO’s economic projections reflect several factors: economic developments as of December 6, 2022; the assumption that current laws governing federal taxes and spending generally remain in place; and CBO’s initial assessment of full-year discretionary funding for the federal government for fiscal year 2023. (That initial assessment, which was based on proposals under discussion in early December, is 4 percent lower than CBO’s current estimate of total discretionary funding for fiscal year 2023.) The economic projections cover such key variables as economic output, inflation, interest rates, and conditions in the labor market.

The Economic Outlook for 2023 to 2027

In 2022, the economy’s output (gross domestic product, or GDP) grew modestly, inflation continued at a high rate, the Federal Reserve sharply increased interest rates, and the labor market was tight, with many more job vacancies than available workers. In 2023, economic activity is projected to stagnate, with rising unemployment and falling inflation. Interest rates are projected to remain high initially and then gradually decrease in the next few years as inflation continues to slow.

In CBO’s projections, the growth of GDP comes to a halt in early 2023, mainly because of the sharp rise in interest rates last year, and then resumes at a slow pace. For 2023 as a whole, real GDP (that is, GDP adjusted to remove the effects of inflation) is projected to grow by just 0.1 percent. The growth of real GDP is projected to speed up thereafter, averaging 2.4 percent a year from 2024 to 2027, in response to declines in interest rates.

Growth of Real GDP

The growth of real GDP is expected to be restrained in 2023 by declines in home building and inventory investment. Real GDP growth is projected to rebound after 2023 as the growth of investment and exports increases as a result of lower interest rates, faster economic growth abroad, and a weaker dollar.

Inflation was slightly lower in 2022 than 2021, but higher than any other year since 1981, as the war between Russia and Ukraine contributed to higher prices for food and energy. Those upward price pressures added to the high inflation the United States was already experiencing because of buoyant demand, constraints on supply, and tight labor markets. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation—the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE)—increased by 5.5 percent last year and by 5.7 percent in 2021.

Inflation is projected to slow gradually in 2023 as pressures ease from the factors that have caused demand to grow more rapidly than supply in recent years. CBO projects that inflation as measured by the PCE price index will be 3.3 percent in 2023 and 2.4 percent in 2024. PCE inflation is projected to continue declining thereafter, approaching the Federal Reserve’s long-run goal of 2 percent by 2026.

Of the categories that make up the PCE price index, food, energy, and shelter-related services are projected to experience the largest slowdowns in price growth in the next few years.

Overall Inflation and Price Growth for Various Categories of Goods and Services

CBO projects that prices for goods will grow more slowly in 2023 and beyond than they did in 2021 and 2022, largely because problems with supply chains will continue to abate and domestic demand will decline. Among services, CBO projects that higher interest rates will slow the growth of prices for shelter services (a measure of the flow of housing services that housing units provide to their occupants) starting in the second half of 2023.

Interest Rates

In CBO’s projections, interest rates on short-term Treasury securities (such as 3-month Treasury bills) move largely in concert with changes in the Federal Reserve’s target range for the federal funds rate (the rate that financial institutions charge each other for overnight loans of their monetary reserves). CBO projects that the Federal Reserve will increase the target range for the federal funds rate in early 2023 and leave it unchanged for several months thereafter to reduce inflationary pressures. As a result, short-term interest rates are projected to continue to rise during the first half of 2023 and then gradually decline beginning in late 2023. After 2023, the Federal Reserve is projected to lower the target range for the federal funds rate as inflation falls toward the Federal Reserve’s long-run goal of 2 percent.

The interest rate on 10-year Treasury notes is projected to remain near 4 percent over the next five years. CBO’s projection of that long-term rate is driven by its projections of short-term interest rates and of the term premium (the additional return paid to bondholders for the extra risk associated with holding long-term bonds). Term premiums fell to historically low levels in the years just before the coronavirus pandemic for several reasons, including less worry on the part of investors about unexpectedly high inflation, less uncertainty about the future path of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies, and a strong pattern of returns on stocks and on bonds moving in opposite directions. CBO expects those factors to continue to dissipate, bringing term premiums back up close to their average level of the past 40 years.

The Federal Funds Rate and Interest Rates on Long-Term Treasury Securities

Interest rates on 10-year Treasury notes are expected to rise slightly in 2023, largely because of a projected increase in term premiums. After 2023, interest rates on those long-term Treasury securities are expected to fall slightly, mainly because short-term rates (such as the federal funds rate) are expected to decline.

The growth of nonfarm payroll employment is projected to slow in 2023 as the slowdown in real GDP growth dampens the demand for workers. CBO expects employment to increase more rapidly in 2024, as economic growth rebounds, but to remain moderate through 2027. In CBO’s projections, employment growth is positive from the end of 2023 through the end of 2027, with an average increase of 78,000 jobs per month.

Growth of Payroll Employment

Thousands of People

After dropping sharply in 2020 and rebounding strongly thereafter, nonfarm payroll employment (measured as the average monthly change over a given year) is projected to grow at a slower pace in the coming years.

Unemployment

Reflecting the expected slowdown in economic growth, the overall rate of unemployment is projected to rise from 3.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022 to 5.1 percent by the end of 2023, averaging 4.7 percent for 2023 as a whole. Thereafter, the unemployment rate is projected to decline gradually beginning in the second quarter of 2024, falling to 4.5 percent by the end of 2027.

The Unemployment Rate

In the second half of 2023, the unemployment rate is projected to rise above the noncyclical rate of unemployment (the rate that results from all sources except changes in total demand), reflecting an increase in slack in the labor market.

Labor Force Participation

The rate of labor force participation is projected to remain roughly unchanged in 2023 at 62.2 percent. (That rate is the share of the civilian noninstitutionalized population age 16 or older that has jobs or that is available for work and is either seeking work or expecting to be recalled from a temporary layoff.) Thereafter, the labor force participation rate is projected to decline to 61.8 percent by 2027 as the effects of population aging (which dampens overall labor force participation) become more prominent relative to the short-term effects of economic growth.

The Labor Force Participation Rate

The projected decline in the labor force participation rate after 2023 is consistent with the decline in the potential rate—CBO’s estimate of the labor force participation rate that would occur if economic output and other key variables were at their maximum sustainable amounts.

CBO expects hourly wages to grow more slowly in the next few years than they did in 2022. The employment cost index for wages and salaries of workers in private industry—a measure of the hourly price of labor, excluding fringe benefits—grew by 5.1 percent in 2022. The growth of that index is projected to decline to 3.8 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent in 2027.

Growth of Hourly Wages

Nominal wage growth (which includes the effects of inflation) is projected to decrease starting in 2023 because of slowing demand for labor and falling inflation.

The Economic Outlook for 2028 to 2033

CBO’s economic projections for the next five years are strongly influenced by changes in the overall demand for goods and services. By contrast, the agency’s projections for the following five years are fundamentally determined by its assessment of the prospects for growth in several key inputs to potential GDP (the maximum sustainable output of the economy). Those inputs are the potential number of workers in the labor force, capital services (the flow of productive services from the stock of capital assets), and the potential productivity of the labor force and capital services.

Real potential GDP is projected to grow at an average rate of 1.8 percent a year over the 2028–2033 period. That rate is roughly equal to the average annual growth of real potential GDP since late 2007, the peak of the previous cycle of business activity. However, that overall growth rate masks differences for the two components of the growth of real potential GDP—growth of the potential labor force (CBO’s estimate of the size of the labor force that would occur if economic output and other key variables were at their maximum sustainable amounts) and growth of that labor force’s productivity. The potential labor force is projected to increase at a slower annual pace over the 2028–2033 period than it has since 2007, on average, whereas potential labor force productivity is projected to grow more rapidly than its average since 2007.

Real GDP is projected to increase at the same average rate from 2028 to 2033 as real potential GDP, 1.8 percent a year.

Growth of Real Potential GDP and Its Components

The economy’s potential output is projected to grow much more slowly, on average, over the 2028–2033 period than it did in the second half of the 20th century, mainly because of an ongoing, long-term slowdown in the growth of the labor force as well as slower growth of productivity.

Projections of Income for 2023 to 2033

Nominal gross domestic income (total income earned in the production of GDP) is projected to grow at a moderate rate through 2033: by 3.1 percent this year, an average of 4.8 percent in 2024 and 2025, and an average of 4.0 percent from 2026 to 2033. That growth would leave nominal GDI about 35 percent higher at the end of 2025, and 85 percent higher at the end of 2033, than it was just before the pandemic.

Change in Nominal and Real Gross Domestic Income Relative to Their Levels in the Fourth Quarter of 2019

Although CBO expects the growth rate of real GDI to continue to stagnate in 2023, it anticipates that nominal GDI will grow at a stronger rate because of inflation.

Uncertainty About the Economic Outlook

CBO’s projections of economic output and labor market conditions are subject to a high degree of uncertainty. In the short term, the effect of higher interest rates on overall demand, the easing of supply-chain disruptions, and participation in the labor market could be larger or smaller than expected. In the longer term, the growth of potential output in the aftermath of the pandemic could be faster or slower than expected.

Uncertainty of CBO’s Projections of Real GDP Growth

CBO estimates that there is an approximately two-thirds chance that the annual rate of real GDP growth will be between −1.5 percent and 1.7 percent in 2023 and between 0.7 percent and 3.6 percent in 2027.

Comparison With CBO’s May 2022 Economic Projections

Since May 2022, when CBO published its previous economic forecast, the agency has significantly lowered its projection of real GDP growth in 2023 and raised its projection of inflation in 2023. In addition, CBO now expects interest rates to be higher from 2023 through 2026 than it forecast previously. After 2026, the differences between CBO’s current and previous forecasts are smaller.

CBO’s current projection of real GDP growth in 2023, 0.1 percent, is much lower than its May forecast of 2.2 percent growth. That change reflects reductions in projected growth for many sectors of the economy, such as consumer spending, business fixed investment, residential investment, and exports. Conversely, real GDP is now projected to grow more rapidly during the 2024–2026 period than CBO forecast in May, as the economy rebounds from slow growth this year and as the Federal Reserve reduces interest rates from a higher 2023 level than was previously projected. Growth of real GDP is now projected to average 2.5 percent a year over the 2024–2026 period, compared with the 1.5 percent a year projected last spring.

CBO’s projection of nominal GDP growth in 2023, 3.1 percent, is also lower than its previous forecast, 4.5 percent. That change reflects the large downward revision to the projection of real GDP growth this year, which is only partly offset by an upward revision to CBO’s projection of inflation in 2023. The agency now projects stronger growth of nominal GDP from 2024 to 2029 than it projected in May, mainly reflecting the stronger projected growth of real GDP. Beyond 2029, CBO’s current projection of nominal GDP growth is generally similar to its May projection.

CBO’s Current and Previous Projections of Growth of Nominal GDP

CBO is now projecting lower growth of nominal GDP in 2023 than it projected last May, because of a large reduction in its forecast for real GDP growth, partly offset by an increase in its forecast for inflation. Both nominal and real GDP are now projected to grow more rapidly from 2024 to 2029 than CBO projected in May, because of faster projected growth in investment and exports.

CBO expects inflation to be substantially higher this year than it anticipated last spring. In addition to its projection of the PCE price index, CBO projects changes in other price indexes, including the consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U). In May, CBO projected that inflation as measured by the CPI-U would amount to 2.7 percent in 2023. It has since raised that projection to 4.0 percent. CBO also projects a slightly larger increase in the CPI-U in 2024 than it projected previously: 2.4 percent versus 2.3 percent. Beyond 2024, CBO’s current projections of CPI-U inflation are slightly lower than its May projections.

CBO’s Current and Previous Projections of Inflation as Measured by the Consumer Price Index

CBO is projecting higher inflation for 2023 and 2024 than it did last May for two main reasons: Recent historical data suggest that, in many sectors of the economy, price growth will probably continue to be higher than CBO anticipated, and disruptions in the supply of goods and services have lasted longer than CBO previously forecast.

CBO expects short- and long-term interest rates to be higher, on average, over the next several years than it forecast in May and to be roughly the same as in its May forecast thereafter. In CBO’s projections for those later years, the effects of faster growth of productivity and higher income from capital as a share of total income, which are estimated to push up interest rates, are largely offset by higher saving rates in the United States and elsewhere and higher risk premiums, which are estimated to push down interest rates.

CBO’s Current and Previous Projections of Interest Rates on 10-Year Treasury Notes

Long-term interest rates, such as those on 10-year Treasury notes, are now projected to be higher over the 2023–2027 period than CBO forecast in May. That change reflects an increase in the projection for short-term rates—which partly determine long-term rates—because of an increase in projected inflation, which implies that the Federal Reserve will raise the target range for the federal funds rate higher than previously projected.

CBO is currently projecting a higher average unemployment rate between 2022 and 2026 than it forecast in May: 4.5 percent versus 3.8 percent.

CBO’s Current and Previous Projections of the Unemployment Rate

The upward revision to CBO’s projection of the unemployment rate in the next several years stems from a reduction in its projection of economic growth in 2023.

Comparison With Other Economic Projections

CBO compared its projections for the next few years with those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). For the most part, CBO’s projections of output, unemployment, interest rates, and inflation are roughly consistent with those of most forecasters in the SPF.

CBO’s Projections of Output, Unemployment, and Interest Rates Compared With the Range of Projections in the Survey of Professional Forecasters

CBO’s projection of real GDP growth is slightly below the middle two-thirds of the range of the SPF forecast for 2023 as a whole, within that range for 2024, and slightly above that range for 2025. CBO’s projection of unemployment is above the middle two-thirds of the SPF range for the 2023–2025 period. CBO’s projections of short- and long-term interest rates are within the middle two-thirds of the SPF ranges except for 2025, when CBO forecasts lower short-term rates.

CBO’s Projections of Inflation Compared With the Range of Projections in the Survey of Professional Forecasters

CBO’s projections of inflation—as measured by the consumer price index for all urban consumers and the price index for personal consumption expenditures—are generally within the middle two-thirds of the ranges of SPF forecasts. However, CBO projects a larger rise in the consumer price index in 2023 and a smaller average over the 2025–2027 period than the middle two-thirds of the SPF does. CBO’s projections of the core inflation indexes, which exclude food and energy prices, are also close to the middle two-thirds of the SPF ranges.

Appendix Data Sources and Notes for Exhibits

Data source: Congressional Budget Office. See www.cbo.gov/publication/58848#data .

Growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) is measured from the fourth quarter of one calendar year to the fourth quarter of the next. Values for 2000 to 2022 (the thin line) reflect data available from the Bureau of Economic Analysis in late January 2023. Those data contain values for the fourth quarter of 2022, which were not available when CBO developed its current projections for 2022 to 2033 (the thick line).

Overall Inflation and Price Growth for Various Categories of Goods and Services

Data sources: Congressional Budget Office; Bureau of Economic Analysis. See www.cbo.gov/publication/58848#data .

Inflation is measured from the fourth quarter of one calendar year to the fourth quarter of the next. Values in the bars represent the contributions, in percentage points, of each category of goods and services to the growth rate of the price index for personal consumption expenditures. The sum of the contributions of those categories equals the overall growth of that index. “Other goods” include core durable and nondurable goods (other than vehicles and parts), such as electronics, home furnishings, and apparel. “Other services” include core services (other than housing services and medical services), such as transportation and recreation services.

The Federal Funds Rate and Interest Rates on Long-Term Treasury Securities

Data sources: Congressional Budget Office; Federal Reserve. See www.cbo.gov/publication/58848#data .

Values for 2000 to 2022 (the thin lines) reflect data on interest rates for the full month of December 2022. Those data were not available when CBO developed its current projections for 2022 to 2033 (the thick lines).

Data sources: Congressional Budget Office; Bureau of Labor Statistics. See www.cbo.gov/publication/58848#data .

Payroll employment is the number of employed workers, excluding proprietors, private household employees, unpaid volunteers, farm employees, and unincorporated self-employed workers. The average monthly change in payroll employment is calculated by dividing by 12 the change in nonfarm payrolls from the fourth quarter of one calendar year to the fourth quarter of the next. Values for 2000 to 2022 (the orange bars) reflect data available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in late January 2023. Those data contain values for the fourth quarter of 2022, which were not available when CBO developed its current projections for 2022 to 2033 (the brown bars).

The unemployment rate is the number of people not working who are available for work and are either seeking work or expecting to be recalled from a temporary layoff, expressed as a percentage of the labor force (the number of people age 16 or older in the civilian noninstitutionalized population who have jobs or who are available for work and are either seeking work or expecting to be recalled from a temporary layoff). The noncyclical rate of unemployment is the rate that results from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand, including normal turnover of jobs and mismatches between the skills of available workers and the skills necessary to fill vacant positions.

The data are annual averages. Values for 2000 to 2022 (the thin line) reflect data available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in late January 2023. Those data contain values for the fourth quarter of 2022, which were not available when CBO developed its current projections for 2022 to 2033 (the thick line).

The data are annual averages. Values for 2000 to 2022 (the thin lines) reflect data available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in late January 2023. Those data contain values for the fourth quarter of 2022, which were not available when CBO developed its current projections for 2022 to 2033 (the thick lines).

Wages are measured using the employment cost index for wages and salaries of workers in private industry. The growth of wages is measured from the fourth quarter of one calendar year to the fourth quarter of the next. Values for 2000 to 2022 (the thin line) reflect data available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in late January 2023. Those data contain values for the fourth quarter of 2022, which were not available when CBO developed its current projections for 2022 to 2033 (the thick line).

Growth of Real Potential GDP and Its Components

Growth of real potential GDP is the sum of the growth of the potential labor force and growth of potential labor force productivity. The potential labor force is CBO’s estimate of the size of the labor force that would occur if economic output and other key variables were at their maximum sustainable amounts. Potential labor force productivity is the ratio of real potential GDP to the potential labor force. The bars show average annual growth rates over the specified periods. Those rates are calculated using calendar year data.

The chart shows the percentage difference in nominal or real gross domestic income (GDI) from its level in the fourth quarter of 2019. GDI is the sum of all income earned in the production of GDP. Real GDI is nominal GDI that has been adjusted to remove the effects of inflation, as measured by the GDP price index.

Uncertainty of CBO’s Projections of Real GDP Growth

To quantify the uncertainty of its projections of real GDP growth over for next five years, CBO conducted 1,000 simulations to produce probability distributions for the future path of that variable. For discussion of the methods used to quantify uncertainty, see Congressional Budget Office, “Estimating the Uncertainty of the Economic Forecast Using CBO’s Expanded Markov-Switching Model” (January 2023), www.cbo.gov/publication/58884 , and “Estimating the Uncertainty of the Economic Forecast Using CBO’s Bayesian Vector Autoregression Model” (January 2023), www.cbo.gov/publication/58883 .

Growth of real GDP is measured from the fourth quarter of one calendar year to the fourth quarter of the next. Values for 2019 to 2022 (the thin line) reflect data available from the Bureau of Economic Analysis in late January 2023. Those data contain values for the fourth quarter of 2022, which were not available when CBO developed its current projections for the next five years (the thick line) and analyzed their uncertainty.

CBO’s Current and Previous Projections of Growth of Nominal GDP

Growth of nominal GDP is measured from the fourth quarter of one calendar year to the fourth quarter of the next.

Inflation is measured from the fourth quarter of one calendar year to the fourth quarter of the next.

CBO’s Current and Previous Projections of Interest Rates on 10-Year Treasury Notes

The unemployment rate is the number of people not working who are available for work and are either seeking work or expecting to be recalled from a temporary layoff, expressed as a percentage of the labor force (the number of people age 16 or older in the civilian noninstitutionalized population who have jobs or who are available for work and are either seeking work or expecting to be recalled from a temporary layoff). The data are annual averages.

CBO’s Projections of Output, Unemployment, and Interest Rates Compared With the Range of Projections in the Survey of Professional Forecasters

Data sources: Congressional Budget Office; Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Survey of Professional Forecasters: First Quarter 2023 (February 10, 2023), https://tinyurl.com/y2xctkwk . See www.cbo.gov/publication/58848#data .

The full range of forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters is based on the highest and lowest of the roughly 40 forecasts. The middle two-thirds of that range omits the top one-sixth and the bottom one-sixth of the forecasts.

Quarterly growth of real GDP is measured from one quarter to the next and expressed as an annual rate; annual growth is measured from the average of one calendar year to the next.

CBO’s Projections of Inflation Compared With the Range of Projections in the Survey of Professional Forecasters

The full range of forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) is based on the highest and lowest of the roughly 40 forecasts. The middle two-thirds of that range omits the top one-sixth and the bottom one-sixth of the forecasts. Multiyear averages are calculated using the 5-year and 10-year averages reported in the SPF. The survey did not provide forecasts of inflation in the core indexes beyond 2024.

Quarterly inflation is measured from one quarter to the next and expressed as an annual rate. Annual inflation is measured from the fourth quarter of one calendar year to the fourth quarter of the next.

About This Document

This report, which was prepared to enhance the Congressional Budget Office’s transparency, is based on the information in Chapter 2 of The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2033 (February 2023). In keeping with CBO’s mandate to provide objective, impartial analysis, the report makes no recommendations.

Robert Arnold, Aaron Betz, Daniel Fried, and Mark Lasky prepared this report with guidance from Richard DeKaser. John McClelland and Julie Topoleski offered comments. Many CBO analysts contributed to the projections described in The Budget and Economic Outlook .

Mark Doms, Jeffrey Kling, and Robert Sunshine reviewed this report. Christian Howlett edited it, and Jorge Salazar created the graphics and prepared the report for publication. The report is available at www.cbo.gov/publication/58880 .

CBO seeks feedback to make its work as useful as possible. Please send comments to [email protected] .

Phillip L. Swagel

February 2023

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Summary of the 2022 Economic Report of the   President

Today, the Council of Economic Advisers released the Economic Report of the President, which includes the Annual Report of the Council of Economic Advisers. This Report, required by statute, demonstrates the robust economic progress the United States has made over the past year, and makes the case for the Biden-Harris Administration’s economic policy priorities.

The Report begins with a reflection by President Biden about the Administration’s economic accomplishments over the 2021 calendar year and opportunities and challenges ahead. The Annual Report of the Council of Economic Advisers follows, with seven chapters, a report on CEA’s activities in 2021, and statistical tables relating to income, employment, and production.

The volume includes the following chapters:

The Public Sector’s Role in Economic Growth

Chapter 1 outlines the rationale for public investment as a way to produce economic growth and reduce inequality. It also provides an overview of the volume.

“…when the public sector stepped back, economic growth diminished and became less evenly shared. The private sector did not lose a rival; it lost a partner.”

The Year in Review and the Years Ahead

Chapter 2 provides an overview of the economy over the past year, focusing on how this recovery differs from past ones. The chapter discusses fiscal and monetary policy support, pandemic issues, inflation, and labor force participation. The macroeconomic forecast underpinning the Administration’s Fiscal Year 2023 Budget is also presented.

“…in 2021, more than a year after shutdowns and masking began, almost every driver of the economic ebbs and flows the United States experienced had stemmed directly or indirectly from this virus.”

The U.S. Economy and the Global Pandemic

Chapter 3 analyzes the U.S. economy in a global context, examining other countries’ paths toward recovery, inflation trends, labor markets, and shifts in international trade and their impact on the U.S. trade deficit. The chapter then discusses principles for U.S. international economic policy that promotes economic resilience and generates benefits that are shared broadly across American society.

“Bolstered by an early and rapid vaccine rollout as well as by strong fiscal support, the United States’ recovery has been robust, outpacing that of most of our major trading partners in 2021.”

Investing in People: Education, Workforce Development, and Health

Chapter 4 discusses education, workforce development, and health, and public investments that would support the development of these forms of human capital. It discusses policy changes that could expand U.S. economic capacity and allow human capital to be used more productively.

“Investments in people expand the productive capacity of the U.S. economy, boost living standards, and ensure that our workforce has the skills and education needed to compete in this dynamic world.”

Barriers to Economic Equality: The Role of Monopsony, Monopoly, and Discrimination

Chapter 5 analyzes the forces that inhibit markets from being truly competitive and the importance of addressing factors that get in the way of workers achieving their true potential—particularly monopsony, monopoly, and race and gender discrimination. It also examines how persistent inequality may reduce economic efficiency and capacity growth, and how policies (such as raising the minimum wage and protecting workers’ right to organize a union) can counteract the noncompetitive forces that contribute to inequality.

“Addressing inequality is important for ensuring that people are rewarded fairly for their efforts and contributions to productivity as well as for fostering stronger productivity and growth.”

Building Resilient Supply Chains

Chapter 6 describes the evolution of the supply chain and discusses the market failures associated with firms’ increased reliance on outsourcing and offshoring. It then provides examples of Administration proposals that would help to overcome these market failures, strengthening supply chains’ resilience and innovation.

“The year 2021 was when supply chains—the networks of producers, transportation companies, and distribution centers that develop and move products and services—entered dinner table conversations.”

Accelerating and Smoothing the Clean Energy Transition

Chapter 7 discusses climate risks and global progress in mitigating those risks by transitioning to clean energy. The chapter also outlines a set of market failures holding back the energy transition, discusses policies that can cost-effectively accelerate the transition, and explains the economic rationale underlying Federal climate policies to smooth the energy transition for U.S. domestic industries and vulnerable communities.

“…the energy transition provides opportunities for bolstering domestic firms in emerging carbon-free industries and for economic development in the communities that are most vulnerable to the transition’s risks.”

For Statistical Tables, visit here .

For the Full Report, visit here .

For Past Reports, visit here .

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August 27, 2021

Monetary Policy in the Time of COVID

Chair Jerome H. Powell

At the "Macroeconomic Policy in an Uneven Economy," economic policy symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming (via webcast)

Seventeen months have passed since the U.S. economy faced the full force of the COVID-19 pandemic. This shock led to an immediate and unprecedented decline as large parts of the economy were shuttered to contain the spread of the disease.

The path of recovery has been a difficult one, and a good place to begin is by thanking those on the front line fighting the pandemic: the essential workers who kept the economy going, those who have cared for others in need, and those in medical research, business, and government, who came together to discover, produce, and widely distribute effective vaccines in record time. We should also keep in our thoughts those who have lost their lives from COVID, as well as their loved ones.

Strong policy support has fueled a vigorous but uneven recovery—one that is, in many respects, historically anomalous. In a reversal of typical patterns in a downturn, aggregate personal income rose rather than fell, and households massively shifted their spending from services to manufactured goods. Booming demand for goods and the strength and speed of the reopening have led to shortages and bottlenecks, leaving the COVID-constrained supply side unable to keep up. The result has been elevated inflation in durable goods—a sector that has experienced an annual inflation rate well below zero over the past quarter century. 1 Labor market conditions are improving but turbulent, and the pandemic continues to threaten not only health and life, but also economic activity. Many other advanced economies are experiencing similarly unusual conditions.

In my comments today, I will focus on the Fed's efforts to promote our maximum employment and price stability goals amid this upheaval, and suggest how lessons from history and a careful focus on incoming data and the evolving risks offer useful guidance for today's unique monetary policy challenges.

The Recession and Recovery So Far The pandemic recession—the briefest yet deepest on record—displaced roughly 30 million workers in the space of two months. 2 The decline in output in the second quarter of 2020 was twice the full decline during the Great Recession of 2007–09. 3 But the pace of the recovery has exceeded expectations, with output surpassing its previous peak after only four quarters, less than half the time required following the Great Recession. As is typically the case, the recovery in employment has lagged that in output; nonetheless, employment gains have also come faster than expected. 4

The economic downturn has not fallen equally on all Americans, and those least able to shoulder the burden have been hardest hit. In particular, despite progress, joblessness continues to fall disproportionately on lower-wage workers in the service sector and on African Americans and Hispanics.

The unevenness of the recovery can further be seen through the lens of the sectoral shift of spending into goods—particularly durable goods such as appliances, furniture, and cars—and away from services, particularly in-person services in areas such as travel and leisure ( figure 1 ). As the pandemic struck, restaurant meals fell 45 percent, air travel 95 percent, and dentist visits 65 percent. Even today, with overall gross domestic product and consumption spending more than fully recovered, services spending remains about 7 percent below trend. Total employment is now 6 million below its February 2020 level, and 5 million of that shortfall is in the still-depressed service sector. In contrast, spending on durable goods has boomed since the start of the recovery and is now running about 20 percent above the pre-pandemic level. With demand outstripping pandemic-afflicted supply, rising durables prices are a principal factor lifting inflation well above our 2 percent objective.

Given the ongoing upheaval in the economy, some strains and surprises are inevitable. The job of monetary policy is to promote maximum employment and price stability as the economy works through this challenging period. I will turn now to a discussion of progress toward those goals.

The Path Ahead: Maximum Employment The outlook for the labor market has brightened considerably in recent months. After faltering last winter, job gains have risen steadily over the course of this year and now average 832,000 over the past three months, of which almost 800,000 have been in services ( figure 2 ). The pace of total hiring is faster than at any time in the recorded data before the pandemic. The levels of job openings and quits are at record highs, and employers report that they cannot fill jobs fast enough to meet returning demand.

These favorable conditions for job seekers should help the economy cover the considerable remaining ground to reach maximum employment. The unemployment rate has declined to 5.4 percent, a post-pandemic low, but is still much too high, and the reported rate understates the amount of labor market slack. 5 Long-term unemployment remains elevated, and the recovery in labor force participation has lagged well behind the rest of the labor market, as it has in past recoveries.

With vaccinations rising, schools reopening, and enhanced unemployment benefits ending, some factors that may be holding back job seekers are likely fading. 6 While the Delta variant presents a near-term risk, the prospects are good for continued progress toward maximum employment.

The Path Ahead: Inflation The rapid reopening of the economy has brought a sharp run-up in inflation. Over the 12 months through July, measures of headline and core personal consumption expenditures inflation have run at 4.2 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively—well above our 2 percent longer-run objective. 7 Businesses and consumers widely report upward pressure on prices and wages. Inflation at these levels is, of course, a cause for concern. But that concern is tempered by a number of factors that suggest that these elevated readings are likely to prove temporary. This assessment is a critical and ongoing one, and we are carefully monitoring incoming data.

The dynamics of inflation are complex, and we assess the inflation outlook from a number of different perspectives, as I will now discuss.

1. The absence so far of broad-based inflation pressures The spike in inflation is so far largely the product of a relatively narrow group of goods and services that have been directly affected by the pandemic and the reopening of the economy. Durable goods alone contributed about 1 percentage point to the latest 12‑month measures of headline and core inflation. Energy prices, which rebounded with the strong recovery, added another 0.8 percentage point to headline inflation, and from long experience we expect the inflation effects of these increases to be transitory. In addition, some prices—for example, for hotel rooms and airplane tickets—declined sharply during the recession and have now moved back up close to pre-pandemic levels. The 12-month window we use in computing inflation now captures the rebound in prices but not the initial decline, temporarily elevating reported inflation. These effects, which are adding a few tenths to measured inflation, should wash out over time.

We consult a range of measures meant to capture whether price increases for particular items are spilling over into broad-based inflation. These include trimmed mean measures and measures excluding durables and computed from just before the pandemic. These measures generally show inflation at or close to our 2 percent longer-run objective ( figure 3 ). We would be concerned at signs that inflationary pressures were spreading more broadly through the economy.

2. Moderating inflation in higher-inflation items We are also directly monitoring the prices of particular goods and services most affected by the pandemic and the reopening, and are beginning to see a moderation in some cases as shortages ease. Used car prices, for example, appear to have stabilized; indeed, some price indicators are beginning to fall. If that continues, as many analysts predict, then used car prices will soon be pulling measured inflation down, as they did for much of the past decade. 8

This same dynamic of upward inflation pressure dissipating and, in some cases, reversing seems likely to play out in durables more generally. Over the 25 years preceding the pandemic, durables prices actually declined, with inflation averaging negative 1.9 percent per year ( figure 5 ). 9 As supply problems have begun to resolve, inflation in durable goods other than autos has now slowed and may be starting to fall. It seems unlikely that durables inflation will continue to contribute importantly over time to overall inflation. We will be looking for evidence that supports or undercuts that expectation.

3. Wages We also assess whether wage increases are consistent with 2 percent inflation over time. Wage increases are essential to support a rising standard of living and are generally, of course, a welcome development. But if wage increases were to move materially and persistently above the levels of productivity gains and inflation, businesses would likely pass those increases on to customers, a process that could become the sort of "wage–price spiral" seen at times in the past. 10 Today we see little evidence of wage increases that might threaten excessive inflation ( figure 6 ). Broad-based measures of wages that adjust for compositional changes in the labor force, such as the employment cost index and the Atlanta Wage Growth Tracker, show wages moving up at a pace that appears consistent with our longer-term inflation objective. We will continue to monitor this carefully.

4. Longer-term inflation expectations Policymakers and analysts generally believe that, as long as longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored, policy can and should look through temporary swings in inflation. Our monetary policy framework emphasizes that anchoring longer-term expectations at 2 percent is important for both maximum employment and price stability.

We carefully monitor a wide range of indicators of longer-term inflation expectations. These measures today are at levels broadly consistent with our 2 percent objective ( figure 4 ). Because measures of inflation expectations are individually noisy, we also focus on common patterns across the measures. One approach to summarizing these patterns is the Board staff's index of common inflation expectations (CIE), which combines information from a broad range of survey and market-based measures. 11 This index captures a general move down in expectations starting around 2014, a time when inflation was running persistently below 2 percent. More recently, the index shows a welcome reversal of that decline and is now at levels more consistent with our 2 percent objective.

Longer-term inflation expectations have moved much less than actual inflation or near-term expectations, suggesting that households, businesses, and market participants also believe that current high inflation readings are likely to prove transitory and that, in any case, the Fed will keep inflation close to our 2 percent objective over time. 12

5. The prevalence of global disinflationary forces over the past quarter century Finally, it is worth noting that, since the 1990s, inflation in many advanced economies has run somewhat below 2 percent even in good times ( figure 7 ). The pattern of low inflation likely reflects sustained disinflationary forces, including technology, globalization and perhaps demographic factors, as well as a stronger and more successful commitment by central banks to maintain price stability. 13 In the United States, unemployment ran below 4 percent for about two years before the pandemic, while inflation ran at or below 2 percent. Wages did move up across the income spectrum—a welcome development—but not by enough to lift price inflation consistently to 2 percent. While the underlying global disinflationary factors are likely to evolve over time, there is little reason to think that they have suddenly reversed or abated. It seems more likely that they will continue to weigh on inflation as the pandemic passes into history. 14

We will continue to monitor incoming inflation data against each of these assessments.

To sum up, the baseline outlook is for continued progress toward maximum employment, with inflation returning to levels consistent with our goal of inflation averaging 2 percent over time. Let me now turn to how the baseline outlook and the associated risks and uncertainties figure in our monetary policymaking.

Implications for Monetary Policy The period from 1950 through the early 1980s provides two important lessons for managing the risks and uncertainties we face today. The early days of stabilization policy in the 1950s taught monetary policymakers not to attempt to offset what are likely to be temporary fluctuations in inflation. 15 Indeed, responding may do more harm than good, particularly in an era where policy rates are much closer to the effective lower bound even in good times. The main influence of monetary policy on inflation can come after a lag of a year or more. If a central bank tightens policy in response to factors that turn out to be temporary, the main policy effects are likely to arrive after the need has passed. The ill-timed policy move unnecessarily slows hiring and other economic activity and pushes inflation lower than desired. Today, with substantial slack remaining in the labor market and the pandemic continuing, such a mistake could be particularly harmful. We know that extended periods of unemployment can mean lasting harm to workers and to the productive capacity of the economy. 16

History also teaches, however, that central banks cannot take for granted that inflation due to transitory factors will fade. The 1970s saw two periods in which there were large increases in energy and food prices, raising headline inflation for a time. But when the direct effects on headline inflation eased, core inflation continued to run persistently higher than before. One likely contributing factor was that the public had come to generally expect higher inflation—one reason why we now monitor inflation expectations so carefully. 17

Central banks have always faced the problem of distinguishing transitory inflation spikes from more troublesome developments, and it is sometimes difficult to do so with confidence in real time. At such times, there is no substitute for a careful focus on incoming data and evolving risks. If sustained higher inflation were to become a serious concern, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would certainly respond and use our tools to assure that inflation runs at levels that are consistent with our goal.

Incoming data should provide more evidence that some of the supply–demand imbalances are improving, and more evidence of a continued moderation in inflation, particularly in goods and services prices that have been most affected by the pandemic. We also expect to see continued strong job creation. And we will be learning more about the Delta variant's effects. For now, I believe that policy is well positioned; as always, we are prepared to adjust policy as appropriate to achieve our goals.

That brings me to a concluding word on the path ahead for monetary policy. The Committee remains steadfast in our oft-expressed commitment to support the economy for as long as is needed to achieve a full recovery. The changes we made last year to our Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy are well suited to address today's challenges.

We have said that we would continue our asset purchases at the current pace until we see substantial further progress toward our maximum employment and price stability goals, measured since last December, when we first articulated this guidance. My view is that the "substantial further progress" test has been met for inflation. There has also been clear progress toward maximum employment. At the FOMC's recent July meeting, I was of the view, as were most participants, that if the economy evolved broadly as anticipated, it could be appropriate to start reducing the pace of asset purchases this year. The intervening month has brought more progress in the form of a strong employment report for July, but also the further spread of the Delta variant. We will be carefully assessing incoming data and the evolving risks. Even after our asset purchases end, our elevated holdings of longer-term securities will continue to support accommodative financial conditions.

The timing and pace of the coming reduction in asset purchases will not be intended to carry a direct signal regarding the timing of interest rate liftoff, for which we have articulated a different and substantially more stringent test. We have said that we will continue to hold the target range for the federal funds rate at its current level until the economy reaches conditions consistent with maximum employment, and inflation has reached 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. We have much ground to cover to reach maximum employment, and time will tell whether we have reached 2 percent inflation on a sustainable basis.

These are challenging times for the public we serve, as the pandemic and its unprecedented toll on health and economic activity linger. But I will end on a positive note. Before the pandemic, we all saw the extraordinary benefits that a strong labor market can deliver to our society. Despite today's challenges, the economy is on a path to just such a labor market, with high levels of employment and participation, broadly shared wage gains, and inflation running close to our price stability goal. Thank you very much.

References Bodenstein, Martin, Christopher J. Erceg, and Luca Guerrieri (2008). "Optimal Monetary Policy with Distinct Core and Headline Inflation Rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 55, supplement (October), pp. S18–S33.

Bordo, Michael D., and Athanasios Orphanides, eds. (2013). The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking . Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Canon, Maria E., Marianna Kudlyak, and Marisa Reed (2015). " Aging and the Economy: The Japanese Experience ," Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Regional Economist, vol. 23 (October), pp. 12–13.

Davis, Steven J., and Till von Wachter (2011). " Recessions and the Costs of Job Loss (PDF) ," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall, pp. 1–72.

Forbes, Kristin J. (2019). " Inflation Dynamics: Dead, Dormant, or Determined Abroad? (PDF) " Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall, pp. 257–319.

Friedman, Milton (1958). "The Supply of Money and Changes in Prices and Output," in The Relationship of Prices to Economic Stability and Growth: Compendium of Papers Submitted by Panelists Appearing before the Joint Economic Committee, Joint Committee Print, March 31, 85 Cong. Washington: Government Printing Office, pp. 241–56.

Goodhart, Charles, and Manoj Pradhan (2020). The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival. Cham, Switzerland: Palgrave Macmillan.

Mishkin, Frederic S. (2007). " Headline versus Core Inflation in the Conduct of Monetary Policy ," speech delivered at the Business Cycles, International Transmission and Macroeconomic Policies Conference, HEC Montreal, Montreal, October 20.

Obstfeld, Maurice (2020). "Global Dimensions of U.S. Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16 (February), pp. 73–132.

Orphanides, Athanasios, and John C. Williams (2013). "Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations," in Michael D. Bordo and Athanasios Orphanides, eds., The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking . Chicago: University of Chicago Press, pp. 255–88.

Powell, Jerome H. (2019). " Challenges for Monetary Policy ," speech delivered at "Challenges for Monetary Policy," a symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, held in Jackson Hole, Wyo., August 23.

1. See, for example, figure 5. Return to text

2. This figure includes both the decline in the number reporting themselves as employed in the Household Survey as well as the BLS' estimate of those who misreported themselves as employed but not at work rather than on temporary layoff. Return to text

3. From the peak to the trough quarter, gross domestic product dropped 10 percent last year, compared with 3.8 percent in the 2007–09 recession. Return to text

4. For example, the consensus forecast reported by Blue Chip Economic Indicators in April 2020 put the unemployment rate in the second quarter of 2021 at 7.4 percent, compared with the actual value of 5.9 percent. Return to text

5. An alternative measure that adjusts for the misclassification of some unemployed workers as employed but not at work (as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics) and for diminished labor force participation induced by the pandemic (as estimated by Federal Reserve Board staff) currently stands at 7.8 percent, also a post-pandemic low. Return to text

6. Factors holding back job gains are more thoroughly discussed in the July 2021 Monetary Policy Report, which is available on the Board's website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/20210709_mprfullreport.pdf . Return to text

7. These values reflect data through July as released on August 27, 2021. All other statements about personal consumption expenditures and associated prices reflect data through June and do not include the August 27, 2021 release covering July. Return to text

8. Declines in used car prices would begin holding down 12-month inflation once most of the earlier price increases have fallen out of the 12-month window. Return to text

9. The lower inflation in durable goods is probably due to a number factors, including faster productivity growth in durable goods than in services and globalization. Return to text

10. If wages rise in line with inflation and labor productivity growth, then real unit labor costs (or the labor cost of producing one unit of output) to businesses are constant. Wages may grow slower or faster than inflation plus productivity growth for extended periods because of changing structural factors without being reflected in inflation. Ultimately, however, persistently rising real unit labor costs will put upward pressure on prices. Return to text

11. The way the CIE combines the underlying measures means that it will tend not to be affected by underlying movements that are unique to individual measures; the CIE will reflect movements that are more common across underlying measures. Return to text

12. On a Q4-over-Q4 basis, the August 13, 2021, Survey of Professional Forecasters reports a consensus forecast for total personal consumption expenditures inflation of 4.1 percent, 2.2 percent, and 2.3 percent for 2021 to 2023, respectively. The corresponding numbers for core inflation are 3.7 percent, 2.2 percent, and 2.1 percent, respectively. The August 10, 2021, Blue Chip Economic Indicators Forecast presents similar consensus forecasts for 2021 and 2022. Return to text

13. For views on this, see Canon, Kudlyak, and Reed (2015), Forbes (2019), Goodhart and Pradhan (2020), Obstfeld (2020). Return to text

14. For an opposing view, see Goodhart and Pradhan (2020), who argue that the globalization and demographic factors that had been fueling global disinflationary forces are now reversing and could give rise to an inflationary period. Even if we are near an inflection point, as Goodhart and Pradhan argue, demographic forces move slowly relative to the near-term policy horizon I am discussing here today. Return to text

15. As I discussed here two years ago, Milton Friedman first made this argument referring to the stop-and-go policies in the 1950s. See Powell (2019) and Friedman (1958, p. 241). Bodenstein, Erceg, and Guerrieri (2008) and Mishkin (2007) illustrate the problems that reacting to transitory sources of inflation can cause using two of the Board staff's models. Return to text

16. See, for example, Davis and von Wachter (2011). Return to text

17. See, for example, Orphanides and Williams (2013) on the role of de-anchored inflation expectations. This paper is in Bordo and Orphanides (2013), which discusses a wide range of related issues. Return to text

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In the expansive realm of economic influence, the Economy of the United States stands as a cornerstone of global financial stability and growth. With a diverse range of industries spanning technology, finance, manufacturing, and services, it serves as a catalyst for innovation, setting trends on a worldwide scale. This economic powerhouse is characterized by its remarkable resilience, adaptability, and a robust framework that fosters entrepreneurial endeavors. The policies and decisions originating within this economy resonate far beyond U.S. borders, exerting a profound influence on international markets and shaping the broader global economic landscape. This Economy of the United States PowerPoint template is a versatile tool designed for students, educators, analysts, and professionals in economics, finance, and business sectors. Offering a comprehensive overview of the U.S. economy, it serves as an invaluable educational and analytical resource. The template boasts a user-friendly interface with fully editable slides, enabling customization to suit specific educational or professional requirements. Each slide is thoughtfully crafted to convey key economic concepts clearly and effectively. Presenters stand to benefit from the ability to deliver engaging and informative presentations, thereby enhancing understanding of the U.S. economy. Encourage your audience to employ this template as a knowledge-enhancing tool for a deeper comprehension of economic principles and the dynamic Economy of the United States.

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Leverage our Economy of the United States template, compatible with Microsoft PowerPoint and Google Slides, to represent the comprehensive system of distribution, production, and consumption of products and services within the geographical boundaries of the USA. Make your future presentations engaging and memorable with these striking designs and fabulous layouts.

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Kamala Harris' inaction on US economy the past 3 years speaks louder than her words

As vp, harris had ample opportunity to influence policy and address economic challenges facing americans. instead, she remained silent while the country was saddled with out-of-control inflation.

Since becoming her party’s presidential nominee last month, Kamala Harris has done a great job of avoiding reporters and remaining silent about her policy priorities. But based on the few economic proposals she has outlined, it is clear she is more interested in political pandering than actually tackling the real-world problems facing American families.

Let us first be reminded that Harris is currently vice president of the United States, meaning she has had the power and ability to lead on aggressive policy reforms head-on. Any misgivings or criticisms about the current policy landscape are a direct rebuke of the administration she has been a part of for the past three-and-a-half years. Instead, she has done nothing.

For example, inflation has surged over the past four years, a fact we are reminded of every time we go to the grocery store, fill up our gas tanks, or pay our insurance premiums. What cost $100 in January 2021 − when the Biden-Harris administration took office − now costs $120.25, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over that same period, gas prices are up 35%, electricity 28%, groceries 21% and the cost of purchasing a home is up 16%.

Harris herself admitted as much during a campaign event in August, acknowledging that "a loaf of bread costs 50% more today than it did before the pandemic" and that "ground beef is up almost 50%."

Harris’ solution? More government control and intervention in the economy that, ultimately, will lead to product shortages and empty store shelves. She says she wants to impose a "federal ban on price gouging on food," i.e. grocery stores. The idea that grocery stores are gouging consumers ignores basic economic realities. Grocery stores operate on razor-thin profit margins − 1.18% on average last year, with industry giant Kroger reporting just 1.43% over the past 15 years. 

The notion that these businesses could engage in widespread price-gouging is not only misguided but also economically illiterate. So long as there is substantial competition in the marketplace, stores will be required to keep their costs low or else risk losing customers to their less expensive competitors. By contrast, imposing an arbitrary, government-mandated price cap on the stores will lead to less production of items consumers depend on and, as a result, shortages.

Harris’ price-control proposal, however misguided, is clearly an attempt to give the illusion during an election year that she is a champion of working-class families. But again, where was this urgency over the past three years? As vice president, Harris had ample opportunity to influence policy and address the economic challenges facing Americans. Instead, she remained silent while the country was saddled with out-of-control inflation, which was exacerbated by the Biden-Harris administration’s reckless spending. Her inaction over the past three years speaks louder than her words today.

The contrast between Harris’ policies and those of previous Republican administrations could not be starker. Under Donald Trump’s leadership, we gained energy independence that led to lower energy prices, a more affordable cost of living, and low inflation.

Kamala Harris’ economic platform represents a continuation of the same failed policies that have brought us to this point. Rather than offering real solutions, Harris is making empty promises and pandering for votes, the consequences of which could lead to even more economic hardship for American families.

Robert Sprague, a Republican, is Ohio Treasurer.

US adversaries would be barred from operating American ports under GOP bill

by RAY LEWIS | The National Desk

WASHINGTON (TND) — A California congresswoman on Friday introduced a bill that would ban businesses owned by companies of U.S. adversaries from operating American ports.

The Secure Our Ports Act, filed by Rep. Michelle Steel, R-Calif., would bar port owners from letting businesses operate U.S. docks if they are owned by Chinese, Russian, Iranian or North Korean companies by any share.

Rep. Steel’s district is in the greater Los Angeles area, which is home to two of the largest ports in the country. The congresswoman said the act would prevent American adversaries from accessing shipping infrastructure there and harming U.S. supply chains.

Nations which threaten the United States should not have easy access to our port infrastructure, a key lifeline of America’s supply chains,” she said in a press release .

Companies like the China Ocean Shipping Company have routes to the ports in the greater Los Angeles area. Barring them from controlling the docks would help protect the U.S. economy, according to the congresswoman.

“My Secure Our Ports Act would shore up America’s economic and national security in the face of threats from Communist China and their like-minded allies,” Rep. Steel said. “Congress must protect America’s supply chains by restricting adversarial governments from having high-level access to our ports.”

READ MORE | Georgia Tech to end partnership with Chinese university after House GOP letter

The bill came during “China Week,” a stretch that saw the House of Representatives pass 25 bills that the Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party claimed would protect against economic, technological, ideological and military threats. Some Democrats said the bills passed without bipartisan negotiation, with Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, D-Ill., arguing that much of the legislation left out critical details, according to Politico .

“This is not lost on the CCP,” he reportedly said. “They pay extremely close attention and they feel that we are hopelessly divided and hopelessly partisan and therefore, we can’t measure up in the competition.”

Have questions, concerns or tips? Send them to Ray at [email protected] .

S&P revises Saudi Arabia's outlook to positive on advancing non-oil economy

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Reporting by Sruthi Narasimha Chari in Bengaluru; Editing by Alan Barona

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Iran launches second satellite this year into orbit, state media says

Iran on Saturday launched a research satellite into orbit with a rocket built by the Revolutionary Guards, state media reported.