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China Economic Update – December 2021

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Key Messages

• China’s economy is projected to slow in 2022 . After a strong rebound in the first half of 2021, economic activity in China cooled rapidly in the second half of this year. We project real GDP growth to reach 8.0 percent this year, before moderating to 5.1 percent in 2022. The slowdown reflects less-favorable base effects, diminished support from exports, and the government’s continued deleveraging efforts.  Though growth is projected to slow next year, we expect momentum to pick up, aided by a more supportive fiscal stance.
• Downside risks to China’s economic outlook have increased . Renewed domestic COVID-19 outbreaks, including the new Omicron variant, could lead to larger disruptions in economic activity. A severe and prolonged downturn in the highly leveraged property sector poses another downside risk which could have significant economy-wide impacts.
• In the short term, ongoing efforts to address excessive leverage in the corporate sector should be maintained . The authorities should stand ready to provide policy easing, should domestic demand remain sluggish amid the lingering pandemic and the ongoing adjustment in the real estate sector, without abandoning their efforts to contain a further build-up of financial sector risks.
• Over the medium term, China faces a difficult rebalancing act as it aims to transition to high-quality growth.   The pandemic and subsequent recovery have worsened domestic and external economic imbalances. Furthermore, the traditional playbook of boosting growth through infrastructure and real estate investment has run its course.
• Three particular challenges stand out: first, rebalancing from external to domestic demand and from investment and industry-led growth to greater reliance on consumption and services, second shifting from the significant weight placed on state leadership and regulation to a greater role for markets and the private sector, and third transitioning from a high to a low-carbon economy.
• First, strengthening corporate and bank resolution frameworks would facilitate an orderly exit of weak or failing firms and would contribute to mitigating moral hazard. Addressing distortions in the access to credit could support the shift to more dynamic private sector led growth.
• Second, shifting the attention to remaining barriers to market competition could spur innovation and productivity growth. Further opening-up of the protected services sector could improve access to high quality services and support the rebalancing towards high value service jobs. Lifting remaining restrictions on labor mobility by abolishing the hukou for all urban areas would equally support the growth of vibrant service economies in China’s largest cities.
• Third, to support the rebalancing towards domestic consumption fiscal reforms could aim to create a more progressive tax system while boosting social safety nets and spending on health and education.
• Finally, the wider use of carbon pricing along with power sector reforms and the development of a wider set of green financing instruments, would help accelerate China’s low carbon transition while encouraging green innovation, thereby boosting medium-term growth prospects.
• Download the Report (pdf)
• Video: Watch the Interview with Ibrahim Saeed Chowdhury, World Bank Acting Lead Economist for China
• Press Release: Structural Reforms Can Ease China’s Transition to High-Quality Growth: Report

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China Economic Outlook. March 2024

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Published on Thursday, March 7, 2024 | Updated on Thursday, March 7, 2024

We summarized the recent Chinese economic development as well as policy outlook in 2024. We also highlight the March 2024 "Two sessions".

• Key points:
• China’s 2023 GDP reached 5.2%, in line with our forecast and consensus, much higher than 3% in 2022 when the country was grappling with the pandemic. But considering base effect, 2022-23 two-year average GDP dipped to 4.1%, off the pre-pandemic track of “higher-than-6%”.
• The recent economic bottoms-out are supported by (i) consumption (service sector recovery), (ii) industrial production (policy priority of high-end manufacturing and green transformation), (iii) infrastructure investment backed by the extra RMB 1 trillion government bond issuance and (iv) the exports resilience.
• Risks in 2024 focus on real estate market, local government debt, deflation, dropping FDI/portfolio inflows and geopolitics, but we think the systemic financial risks do not exist at the current stage, given the prudent monetary policy and a series of precautionary financial regulation measures.
• China-US confrontations have achieved some marginal improvement recently amid the high-level China-US communications, chief among them is Xi-Biden talk in the APAC meeting, etc., but the newly elected Taiwan’s president and this year’s US president election provides uncertainties for China-US relations.
• Monetary and fiscal policy remains expansionary in 2024 to support recovery. We anticipate the government will announce the 2024 GDP growth target to “around 5%”. In addition, it will also promulgate China’s 2024 inflation target, monetary target, emission target as well as a series of monetary and fiscal stimulus in 2024.

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• Jinyue Dong BBVA Research - Senior Economist
• Betty Huang BBVA Research - Economist
• Le Xia BBVA Research - Chief Economist

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Industrial Growth

Manufacturing revenue, large production pharmaceuticals, chinese consumerism.

• China's Economic Concerns

The Bottom Line

• International Markets

Primary Drivers of the Chinese Economy

China has the second-largest economy in the world with a GDP of $17.9 trillion as of 2022, behind the United States GDP of $25.4 trillion—a position driven largely the power of its industrial production and manufacturing exports. If the economy were represented in purchasing power parity (PPP) , China edges out America as the largest economy with a purchasing power of more than $30.3 trillion, compared to $25.4 trillion.

How did China go from a poor society, devastated by World War Two and its own civil war by the mid-20th century, to the number two economy today? After decades of economic stagnation and setbacks under Communist rule, China began to open itself to international trade and liberalize the economy when it established diplomatic and trade relations with the U.S. in 1979. As its subsequent export growth fueled the growth of manufacturing and urbanization, China rose to be a major global economic power over the next four decades.

Key Takeaways

• China's economy has grown to one of the largest and most powerful in the world over the past few decades.
• Driven by industrial production and manufacturing exports, China's GDP is actually now the largest in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) equivalence.
• Despite this growth, China's economy remains strictly controlled by its government where there are accusations of corruption, unfair dealings, and falsified data.

China has faced criticism about how its economy has been able to sustain an average annual growth of almost 10%. However, this has slowed in the last few years, with a growth of 3% in 2022. Namely, the government has been accused of manipulating the currency to keep Chinese exports attractive and of not disciplining companies that engage in intellectual property theft.

Like most countries looking to develop their economies, China’s first step was to build up its heavy industry . Today, China is the world's leader in manufacturing and produces almost half of the world’s steel.

China’s mining industry extracts coal, iron ore, salt, oil, gas, and gold. To reduce China’s dependence on coal, the country is moving towards more renewable resources and plans to increase its natural gas use in the coming years. China also has multiple oil reserves , as well as natural gas deposits that have yet to be fully explored.

The country is also a good candidate for hydroelectricity production, and in 2012, the Three Gorges Dam was completed and is now a major producer of electricity for the southern cities of China, including Shanghai.

Most Americans know that China is a manufacturing powerhouse. Besides its large textile manufacturing sector, the economy also supplies machinery, cement, food processing, transportation devices (trains, planes, and automobiles), consumer goods , and electronics.

Not only does China have many domestic firms that create hardware and software, but the country is also a leading assembler of foreign electronics. The Chinese software and IT industry grew by 10.8% from May 2021 to May 2022, generating Q1 revenue of approximately $415 billion.

Similarly, China produces automobiles in factories owned by both domestic and foreign companies. However, most automobiles are purchased domestically. The country had 318 million automobiles by late 2022.

The Chinese domestic automobile industry has been criticized for IP theft and poor safety records. The majority of cars manufactured by Chinese companies are exported to Africa, South America, the Middle East, or Russia. Because of China’s unique distribution and sales methods, car dealerships and salespeople make a high margin on each vehicle sale.

The Chinese pharmaceutical industry is, like the rest of China, growing at a fast pace. China’s drug distribution system is multi-phased: drugs pass through various tiers and expensive middlepeople before arriving at hospitals and pharmacies. This industry has also been plagued by criticisms of IP theft.

Domestic firms comprise the majority of the market but international companies like Pfizer (PFE), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Novartis (NVS), and AstraZeneca (AZN) also have a presence. With China reforming and regulating the pharmaceutical industry, including by increasing OTC access and enforcing patents , there is a high potential for investment growth in this area.

While once a country with rationing and consumer good shortages, after economic liberalization, China can be a consumer paradise for the those with means and a love for luxury goods. China is home to some of the largest shopping centers in the world, and, in addition to wholesaling , retail contributed $6.1 trillion to GDP in 2022.

Companies like Alibaba (BABA) have given a big boost to retail and e-commerce. Alibaba and JD.com's combined Singles Day 2021 sale—an annual shopping event—saw a record-breaking $139 billion of sales in just one day.

Other services that are big in China include transportation, real estate , and construction.

China's Economic Concerns

While China’s growth seemed unstoppable at one point, there are obvious cracks in the economy that have slowed it down. First off, the country is under fire for the amount of non-renewable resources it burns through each year. With China already considered a large polluter and emitter of greenhouse gases, the expected increase in coal usage is troubling to some.

Next, China is home to rampant corruption. The national government is actively trying to stamp it out in an effort to make the country more business-friendly for Westerners and to avoid the economic and business inefficiencies that come from corruption.

Finally, there’s the problem of underemployment and inflation in China. Chinese farmers on small plots of land are marginally useful and, in an efficient market, would be unemployed. Although inflation in June 2022 was a manageable 2.5%, the last 20 years have seen the inflation rate vary wildly, a concern for businesses wanting to invest in the country.

What Is the Largest Contributor to China's GDP?

The service sector is the largest contributor to China's GDP, making up 52.8 percent of the country's GDP in 2022.

What Is China's Biggest Trading Partner?

The United States is China's biggest trading partner. In 2022, China's exports to the U.S. was $582.76 billion.

What Is China's Number One Export?

China's top export is electrical machinery and equipment, which comprised over a quarter of total exports in 2022.

China has the first or second-largest economy in the world depending on whether you’re looking at PPP or GDP, respectively. Industrial production and manufacturing exports are major forces driving the economy. However, perhaps significantly, the country is not nearly as developed as other countries in the top 10. Government spending is a key driver of growth that has led to indiscriminate construction over the last few years. Even with the largest population on earth, China has struggled to find buyers for real estate in its ghost towns. But the government's latest agenda focuses on stimulus to reinvigorate economic activity, and if that plays out, the country may still have significant room to grow.

World Bank. " GDP (Current US$) ."

World Bank. " GDP, PPP (Current International $) ."

Library of Congress. " U.S. Trade with China: Selected Resources ."

The World Bank. " GDP Growth (Annual %) - China ."

Foreign Policy. " Don’t Let China Steal Your Steel Industry ."

Xinhuanet. " China's Software Sector Maintains Double-Digit Revenue Growth ."

Xinhua. " China registers 415 million motor vehicles, 500 million drivers ."

National Bureau of Statistics of China. " National Economy Withstood Pressure and Reached a New Level in 2022. "

CNBC. " Alibaba, JD Smash Singles Day Record with $139 Billion of Sales and Focus on 'Social Responsibility .'"

CNN. " China Is Turning Its Anti-corruption Fire on Banks at a Risky Time for the Economy. "

YCharts. " China Inflation Rate ."

The World Bank. " Services, Value Added ."

Trading Economics. " China Exports to United States. "

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Economics & Finance

China’s Economy: Dragon in Turbulence

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China’s President Xi Jinping has been confirmed for an unprecedented third five-year term as the leader of both the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the country’s military. While the appointment of Xi and his new leadership team went relatively smoothly during a week-long meeting of 2,300 CCP delegates in Beijing, the same could hardly be said for China’s economy: The once high-flying dragon is entering a period of turbulence. And, when the dust has settled, the global trade and political order may look very different.

A rash of flashing-red economic indicators reflect the depth of China’s woes. The economy grew by 0.4 percent in the second quarter of 2022, the slowest pace since its rapid ascent in the early 1990s save for Q1 2020, when Covid-19 first emerged. The third quarter saw   more robust growth of 3.9 percent , but it merely took average growth for the year to date to a mere 3.0 percent, far below the 5.5 percent targeted by Xi’s administration and the 3.2 percent forecast by the International Monetary Fund.

The medium-term outlook is similarly bleak. The IMF expects China’s economy to grow by 4.4 percent in 2023, well off the >5 percent rate needed to meet Xi’s goal of doubling GDP by 2035. Forecasts by the World Bank are even more gloomy.

Three forces are to blame for bringing the dragon down to earth: the zero-Covid policy that is hobbling the economy, a meltdown in the property sector , which accounts for 30 percent of China’s GDP, and a sweeping crackdown on Big Tech . Remarkably, all are self-inflicted wounds. If advanced economies enter a recession, China will see additional drag on growth.

For now, Beijing has something else to grapple with: Washington’s new sweeping export controls on advanced semiconductors , the “brains” of electronic devices used in everything from healthcare to military systems.

Bargaining chip

In October, US President Joe Biden’s administration announced a ban on the sale of high-end chips to China by both American firms and foreign ones that use American machines or knowhow. The control also prohibits US citizens and green card holders from working in China’s semiconductor industry. Hundreds of executives and engineers, among them employees at the elite Dutch manufacturer ASML, resigned within days, paralysing semiconductor operations. A single shot fired by Biden has done more damage to China than four years of performative “decoupling” under his predecessor Donald Trump.

The chip industry depends on a highly complex and interconnected global supply chain that draws expertise from different regions: design in the US, manufacturing in Taiwan and South Korea, equipment from the Netherlands and assembly, packaging and testing in China. Today, China remains limited to the low value-added parts of the ecosystem.

Biden’s ban will motivate Beijing to accelerate its push towards self-sufficiency, not just in semiconductors but advanced manufacturing as a whole, as it did in nuclear and hydrogen bombs and satellite technology under the “Two Bombs, One Satellite” project in the 1960s.

But many believe it would take the Chinese 30 years to achieve chip self-sufficiency. Even in this difficult race, the Chinese government may be shooting itself in the foot. It has opened corruption investigations against senior executi ves of a state-run investment fund that is the central plank in its efforts to achieve "semiconductor independence". The probes, of which the authorities have provided scant detail, sent chills through the sector and put the brakes on China’s progress in chip development.

Trouble from within

Biden’s economic war on China will have seismic consequences for the international trade order. In the near term, expect China to retaliate with their own controls on critical exports like rare earth to the US. For certain imports it may switch from the US to other countries, like Brazil for corn. Beijing may even go after American multinationals like Apple and Tesla with significant operations in China.

In the longer term, the two countries will pursue self-serving trade arrangements outside of the World Trade Organization system, using a mix of carrots and sticks. The global political order will also be reshaped as both Beijing and Washington will intensify their tussle for allies, especially in South-east Asia, and lock horns over Taiwan . Unfortunately, pragmatism and economic interests will take a back seat while ideology and antagonistic nationalism move to the forefront.

Even without external threats, China will have its work cut out managing internal challenges. The population of 1.4 billion is on the brink of shrinking for the first time in 60 years. On the current trajectory nearly half of them will disappear by the year 2100. Fewer working-age people means fewer workers and fewer consumers, posing a drag on GDP growth.

Already the demographic dividend that has enabled China to become an economic powerhouse on the back of cheap labour is nearly spent, with productivity growth slowing to an average of 5.7 percent from 2014 to 2018, compared to 15.5 percent from 1995 to 2013. 

But the bigger worry may be the CCP itself. The party’s heavy-handed – if well-intentioned – attempts to eradicate the pandemic, achieve “ common prosperity ” (including by reining in the previously freewheeling and lucrative tech sector) and start-stop policies in taming the housing bubble have had disastrous consequences, with ripple effects on the world economy.

What China needs, for a start, is more moderate governance and a refocus on economic policies that work. Even Xi, whose authority will remain unchallenged for years, needs a team that is competent and unafraid to give independent advice. Otherwise, brace for more turbulence ahead.

About the author(s)

Pushan Dutt

is a Professor of Economics and the Shell Fellow of Economic Transformation at INSEAD. He teaches in the MBA programme and the INSEAD Leadership Programme for Senior Executives .

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These 5 misconceptions about China’s slowing economy could lead to complacency in the U.S., expert warns

U.S.-China economic relations are in focus as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen visited Beijing on Sunday, seeking to ease tensions amid mounting disagreements.

The push to improve cooperation comes as China’s economy suffers from slowing growth, a real estate crisis, high youth unemployment, and U.S. restrictions on key technologies, such as chips critical to artificial intelligence.

That has led to predictions that the decades-long growth story is coming to an end or even a so-called lost decade of stagnation. Pointing to China’s aging population, veteran strategist Ed Yardeni last year said the country could become “ the world’s largest nursing home .”

But a top China expert warned against such pessimism, saying it could lead the U.S. to grow complacent and put its economic and security priorities in Asia at risk.

“While its growth has slowed in recent years, China is likely to expand at twice the rate of the United States in the years ahead,” wrote Nicholas Lardy, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, in Foreign Affairs on Tuesday.

He pointed to five misconceptions about China’s economy.

The first one relates to the view that China is no longer gaining ground on the U.S. economy. While China’s GDP did drop from 76% of U.S. GDP in 2021 to 67% in 2023, Lardy attributed that to “transitory” factors such as the outflow of foreign capital and the weakened exchange rate. 

“The International Monetary Fund forecasts that Chinese prices will pick up this year, which would boost China’s GDP measured in renminbi,” he added. “Its nominal GDP measured in U.S. dollars will almost certainly   resume converging toward that of the United States this year and is likely to surpass it   in about a decade.”

The second misconception is that income, spending, and consumer confidence in China are weak, which Lardy said aren’t supported by the data. Instead, he said real per capita income rose 6% last year, with growth in consumption outpacing that rate.

The third misconception he highlighted is that deflation in China is entrenched. While consumer prices largely stagnated last year, Lardy said core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.7%. To be sure, prices of tools and certain raw materials fell in 2023, but that was the result of lower prices for energy and other commodities, which have since rebounded this year.

The fourth relates to lower property investment, which has traditionally been an outsize driver in China’s economy. To be sure, housing starts in 2023 were half what they were in 2021, Lardy acknowledged.

“But one has to look at the context. In that same two-year period, real estate investment fell by only 20%, as developers allocated a greater share of such outlays to completing housing projects they had started in earlier years,” he explained. “Completions expanded to 7.8 billion square feet in 2023, eclipsing housing starts   for the first time.”

The fifth misconception is that Chinese entrepreneurs are fleeing the country as Beijing cracks down on businesses, especially in the tech sector. While the private sector’s share of total investment fell after 2014, Lardy said that was mostly the result of the property market. Excluding real estate, private investment rose almost 10% last year, he added. He also pointed to data that show the number of family businesses grew by 23 million in 2023 to 124 million enterprises.

“Although China is beset by many problems, including those resulting from [President] Xi’s efforts to exert greater control over the economy, exaggerating these problems serves no one,” Lardy warned. “It could even lead to complacency in the face of the very real challenges that China presents to the West . That is particularly true for the United States.”

He predicted China will continue to account for a third of global growth and expand its economic footprint. “If U.S. policymakers underappreciate this, they are likely to overestimate their own ability to sustain the deepening of economic and security ties with Asian partners.”

Among U.S. and European executives, however, views on China have turned gloomier. Standard Chartered CEO Bill Winters said in February that the recent slide in the world’s second largest economy is the result of a lack of confidence , with both foreign investors and Chinese consumers reluctant to put their money into the country.

In addition, Beijing’s raids on local offices of Western companies operating in China have sent a chill through the hundreds of U.S. companies doing business there.

The U.S. and China have ramped up trade tensions, while Beijing’s data privacy law and counterespionage law have prompted warnings from the State Department that U.S. companies could be at risk for doing business there.

“The vast majority of companies are trying to figure out how to reduce their supply chain from there, manufacturing there—everything that has to do with coming out of China, they’re trying to reduce or eliminate as fast as they can,” a recently retired CEO told Fortune earlier this year.

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The Arc of Chinese Economy

Cscc 9th annual conference.

Support of this conference by the China Research and Engagement Fund of the University of Pennsylvania is gratefully acknowledged.

Conference papers download link (for authors and discussants only; password protected).

China’s economy has been viewed as wildly successful with nearly uninterrupted double-digit GDP growth from the 1970s until the Global Financial Crisis with more modest growth since. Today, the World Bank classifies China as an upper-middle income country that may soon move into the ranks of high-income countries. Yet, there are strong headwinds. COVID-19 lockdowns and the abrupt reversal of the zero-COVID policy have triggered a contraction in manufacturing. Household consumption remains stubbornly low in proportion to GDP. Longer term trends and factors including an aging population, flat or declining productivity, a marked slowdown in real estate and greater government and Party presence in the private sector may bode poorly for China’s long-term growth. A key question is whether the arc of China’s economy has approached an inflection point and the heady optimism of William Overholt’s 1993 The Rise of China has given way to the more somber assessment of a Lowy Institute report released in March 2022 under the title “Revising Down the Rise of China.”

This conference will address three broad sets of issues. First are macroeconomic issues. These include: the sustainability of China’s growth models given its reliance on capital formation and exports; whether investment-driven growth and industrial policy can ultimately drive innovation and productivity; and whether China’s demography—an aging population and shrinking workforce—can sustain growth.

Micro issues at the industry, firm and household levels follow. These include: the extension of state ownership and control into private firms; the crackdown on high-profile entrepreneurs in the tech sector and the 2021 “summer storm” of regulation (and the partial relaxation of these controls); policies aimed at de-risking the real estate sector that led to the near-bankruptcy of China Evergrande (and their subsequent reversal); and the impact of policies whose aim is “common prosperity,” reducing the wealth gap between the rich and poor.

The third set of issues is forward-looking. Among them are: the climate for foreign trade and investment in China; the digitalization and internationalization of the RMB; and whether China’s era of rapid growth is coming to a close and if so with a soft or hard readjustment.

To address these questions, the conference will convene a group of leading China scholars to share their expertise and insights. Eleven papers will be presented by leading scholars and followed by comments from expert discussants and open Q&A. The conference is free and open to all. 

Conference Agenda

8:45AM Opening Remarks

9:00-10:30AM

China’s GDP Growth

Justin Lin, Peking University (via video)

Lant Pritchett, Oxford University (via video)

Tom Rawski, University of Pittsburgh (via video)

Michael Song, Chinese University of Hong Kong (via video)

Chenggang Xu, Stanford University (via Zoom)

Discussants: Daniel Rosen, Rhodium Group

Marshall Meyer, University of Pennsylvania

10:30-11:15AM

The Political Economy of Common Prosperity

Yasheng Huang, MIT (via Zoom)

Discussants: Shi Li, Zhejiang University (via Zoom)

Yue Hou, University of Pennsylvania (via Zoom)

11:15- 11:30AM Coffee Break

11:30-12:15PM

Derisking Real Estate in China’s Hybrid Economy

Wei Xiong, Princeton University

Discussants: Susan Wachter, University of Pennsylvania

Joe Gyourko, University of Pennsylvania

1:45-2:30PM

Innovation in China: Drivers, Challenges, and Future Directions

Kevin Zheng Zhou, University of Hong Kong

Discussants: Nan Jia, University of Southern California

Minyuan Zhao, Washington University in St. Louis

2:30-3:15PM

China's Productivity Challenge

Xiaodong Zhu, University of Hong Kong

Discussants: Hongxin Zhao, Saint Louis University

Nan Jia, University of Southern California

3:15-3:30PM Coffee Break

3:30-4:15PM

The “Summer of 2021” and the Trajectory of the Chinese Economic System

Barry Naughton, UC San Diego

Discussants: Margaret Pearson, University of Maryland

4:15-5:00PM

When the Abundance Ends: Economic Transformation, Population Aging, and Shrinking Lifecycle Surplus in China, 2000-2020

Feng Wang, UC Irvine; Shen Ke, Fudan University

Discussants: Cai Yong, University of North Carolina

Emily Hanuum, University of Pennsylvania

5:00-5:30PM Publication Planning (paper authors and discussants only)

8:45-9:30AM

Centralization or Decentralization? The Evolution of State-Ownership in China

Linda Zhao, University of Pennsylvania; Jeff Cai, University of Notre Dame

Hongxin Zhao, Saint Louis University

9:30-10:15AM

China’s Journey in Embracing Economic Openness: Four Perspectives

Shang-Jin Wei, Columbia University

Discussants: David Dollar, Brookings Institution

Jacques deLisle, University of Pennsylvania

10:15-10:30AM Coffee Break

RMB Internationalization and Digitization

Vivian Zhanwei Yue, Emory University

Discussants: Hanming Fang, University of Pennsylvania

Hui Tong, IMF (via Zoom)

11:15-12:00PM

China’s Long-term Economic Prospects

William Overholt, Harvard University

Panel Discussion: Daniel Rosen, Rhodium Group

David Dollar, Brookings Institution

Hanming Fang, University of Pennsylvania

China's Q1 GDP growth likely to slow, more stimulus on the cards

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• China's Q1 GDP growth seen at 4.6%, vs Q4's 5.2
• March data likely show factory output, retail sales slowing
• Q1 GDP, March data due 0200 GMT on Tuesday
• Analysts say more stimulus needed to hit 2024 growth goal

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Coral reefs suffer fourth global bleaching event, NOAA says

Along coastlines from Australia to Kenya to Mexico, many of the world's colorful coral reefs have turned a ghostly white in what scientists said on Monday amounted to the fourth global bleaching event in the last three decades.

China’s stagnating economy has forced Xi Jinping into a humiliating global retreat

Beijing’s slowing growth is bringing it back to the negotiating table

After the tanks rolled into Tiananmen Square in 1989 and the world turned against China, Deng Xiaoping told the Communist Party to “hide your strength and bide your time”. 

That mantra became the doctrine for Chinese foreign policy over the subsequent decades – get on with China’s grand mission of economic reform and radical growth without drawing unnecessary attention.

But under Xi, there has been little hiding or biding; it was more wolf warriors and making China great again. 

As Deng might have predicted, the West started to see China as a threat, not as a partner. Slowly, Xi seems to be realising that Deng had a point, brought down to earth by China’s slowing economy and an increasingly hostile world. 

Earlier this week, Xi spent nearly two hours on the phone with President Joe Biden, striking a markedly friendlier tone than before. This comes after November’s San Francisco summit, in which Xi promised all sorts of goodies to the US and left analysts wondering what on earth China got in return.

Things aren’t happy at home. The economy has been in the doldrums since real estate giant Evergrande defaulted spectacularly on its debt in 2021, or perhaps the downturn started during Trump’s trade war before then. 

The extraordinary zero Covid years didn’t help, and the widely-expected post-Covid recovery has barely materialised, with consumer and business confidence at an all-time low. 

Last summer, before the Communist Party stopped publishing the figures, over a fifth of Chinese young people were unemployed. When I was in Shanghai earlier this year, attending a business summit, the only bullish investors (Chinese or international) were those with a stake in electric cars .

There are, of course, still bright spots in China’s present and future. Renewables is one of them – Chinese EVs are set to take a quarter of European sales this year. 

March data shows that factory activity is recovering, and analysts at Citi have just upgraded their prediction for the economy to 5pc growth this year (Rishi Sunak would kill for half of that). But it’s not quite enough to arrest the concerning slowdown. China may never escape the middle income trap. What will happen to the CCP’s mandate to rule then?

When I interviewed the then foreign secretary James Cleverly at Conservative Party Conference last year, he told me that China’s slowing growth was bringing it back to the negotiating table. I was sceptical then, but in the months since we’ve seen more evidence that something of the sort really may be happening. 

First, Xi made the remarkable trip to meet Biden in San Francisco, even though Chinese leaders prefer to be on home turf. Now, the two hour phone call, which Chinese state media calls continuing “the San Francisco vision”.

That vision looks an awful lot like a Chinese retreat to cautiousness in a bid to ease the external pressure on its economy. At San Francisco and in this week’s call, Xi complained about America’s sanctions that threaten to contain China’s progress in semiconductors, AI and renewables; protested against the US’s increasingly loud support for Taiwan; and raised the issue of TikTok, which is currently being threatened with divestment from its parent company (TikTok may not thank Beijing for the intervention).

In return, the wolf warriors have been leashed, punitive trade barriers rolled back (such as the four-years-long embargo on Australian wine, which ended last week), and the Chinese and American militaries have started talking again.

Deng’s wisdom was that he didn’t drink the Communist Kool-Aid and saw China’s weaknesses and strengths for what they were. 

He knew that it wasn’t ready to take on the US, that it still had more to gain from western friendship. In return, he saw that the West craved access to China’s gigantic market. Deng’s China wasn’t necessarily a happier or freer place – but he convinced the world it was an inoffensive, well-meaning country on the route to liberalisation, somewhere the West could do business with.

Xi’s China is many times stronger, and perhaps without the pandemic it’d have soon become the world’s largest economy . But still, the average American is six times as wealthy as the average Chinese person. 

China’s semiconductors are good, but nowhere as good as the Taiwanese and South Korean alternatives; its military is large and growing, but spending is less than a third of the US equivalent. 

Crucially (and too often overlooked by its critics), China is still reliant on trade with the West – its biggest trading partners are the EU, US, and South Korea. That dependence goes both ways. Beijing has revealed its hand too soon, and now the West is trying to contain it.

Despite China’s entreaties, Biden is not backing down on sanctions on Chinese tech and renewables. Neither would he be able to – politicians and public opinion in the West have turned against China, incensed by the CCP’s bravado. 

Xi will soon find that the reputational damage can’t be fixed quickly.

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Exclusive: China's Ambassador Outlines Ambitious Plan to Jumpstart Economy

A s questions loom over the future of the Chinese economy, which is now facing one of its most serious challenges of the century, Beijing's top diplomat in Washington has outlined to Newsweek his nation's ambitious new plan to accelerate growth mainly through investment in high-tech and emerging industries.

First introduced to the public by Chinese President Xi Jinping in September 2023, the term "new quality productive forces" has since echoed across Chinese official communications and media outlets. International observers have also caught on, weighing in on what the People's Republic hopes to be a pioneering effort to revamp the trajectory of one of the world's fastest-growing economies. In recent years, the economy has been beset by obstacles such as slowdowns in consumer spending, a decline in the real estate sector, and mounting debt.

In addition to domestic concerns, China has also faced increasingly restrictive trade measures from the United States and its partners as part of an intensifying global competition over cutting-edge markets and production lines. Beijing's new strategy emphasizes a greater focus on science and technology in a bid to shield China from the effects of being cut out of critical supply chains and to foster homegrown hubs for attracting foreign capital.

Now, Chinese Ambassador to the United States Xie Feng explains what these "new quality productive forces" constitute, and why they are viewed as so critical to refueling the rise of China's economic powerhouse.

Newsweek : The term "new quality productive forces" has emerged in recent months in reference to China's efforts to accelerate economic growth. Can you explain the meaning of this term and the strategy behind it?

Ambassador Xie: In brief, it refers to innovation-led, reform-driven advanced productive forces that will boost total factor productivity and promote high-quality development. This includes:

Making traditional industries higher-end, smarter and greener. In fact, China's electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries and photovoltaic products all thrive on transforming traditional sectors;

Fostering new industries, such as biomanufacturing, commercial spaceflight, the low-altitude economy and life sciences. Last year, the total output value of China's biomedicine, artificial intelligence and nanotechnology applications exceeded $55 billion;

Also, advancing the digital economy, integrating digital technology into the real economy, and building digital industry clusters. China's digital economy is projected to reach $15.7 trillion by 2027.

An integral part of developing new quality productive forces is opening wider at a higher standard. In August 2023, China introduced 24 measures to attract foreign investment. Among them, 60 percent have been delivered. The number of items on the negative list for foreign investment has been slashed from 93 in 2017 to 31 and will be further cut down this year.

In particular, all restrictions on foreign investment access to manufacturing will be lifted. In March, China released its first nationwide negative list for cross-border services trade. We will expand market access for digital products, telecommunications, healthcare and other areas, too.

What effects might this strategy have on the performance indicators of the Chinese economy?

As China strives to expand domestic demand in recent years, new quality productive forces will serve as a catalyst that further brings out the vitality and potential of China's supersized market. The upgrading of traditional industries and the boom of new ones will further energize China's growth, and generate huge investment and consumption needs.

The advancement of information technologies, including network technology, cloud computing, big data and artificial intelligence, will create more consumption scenarios. Greener, more digitized ways of life and production will also catalyze diverse, higher-end consumption demands.

As China encourages equipment upgrades in industry, agriculture, construction, transport, education, culture, tourism and health care, a market with an annual scale of over 5 trillion yuan ($691 billion) could emerge. The trade-in of durable consumer goods such as automobiles, home appliances and furniture could open up a trillion-yuan market.

As we shift from controlling energy consumption and intensity toward limiting carbon emissions and intensity, an annual investment of over 2 trillion yuan is needed before 2030. Also, China's low-altitude economy is expanding quickly, which is expected to hit 2 trillion yuan by 2030.

In the first two months of this year, China's retail sales grew 5.5 percent year-over-year, total imports and exports of goods expanded 8.7 percent, and power generation of major electricity production enterprises went up 8.3 percent. Some 7,160 foreign-invested firms were established across China, up by 35 percent from 2023, the biggest surge in five years. In March, China's manufacturing PMI rose above 50 for the first time since last September, bouncing back to expansion territory.

Now think of this: While China has a 400-million-strong middle-income group, its per capita GDP has only recently exceeded $12,000. With private consumption accounting for merely 40 percent of GDP, much remains to be done to upgrade the consumption structure. Even so, though, China has been contributing 30 percent of global growth for years.

Just imagine how much more potential will be unlocked as China's high-quality development benefits all the 1.4 billion people, and the population in the middle-income bracket reaches 800 million, and as consumption soars in education, tourism, healthcare, social pension insurance, government-subsidized housing and more!

With its immense size and vast prospects, China, as a premier destination for global investment that remains undervalued, is simply unparalleled. Don't forget: the return on foreign direct investment in China stands at around 9 percent in the past five years.

The above graphic was provided by Statista .

Could this strategy have an impact on improving economic and business relations between China and the United States?

Capital votes with its feet. As new quality productive forces are rapidly taking shape and more favorable measures are rolled out, investors with vision from the United States and other countries are competing to seize the unprecedented opportunities in China.

In January, Costco opened its sixth store in China's mainland in Shenzhen, Guangdong province. More than 140,000 customers signed up for the membership on the very first day, setting a global record. There is every reason to believe that Costco's next world record will also be created in China.

On March 21, Mr. Tim Cook opened the doors of a new Apple store in Shanghai to welcome crowds of visitors. Apple invested nearly $12 million in this retail store, the largest in Asia. Mr. Cook was clearly anticipating more than the initial wave of Apple fans; what he foresaw is a steady influx of customers.

Having invested $4.2 billion in the ethylene project in Guangdong Province, ExxonMobil plans to invest $1.4 billion more. Volkswagen established its largest overseas R&D center in Tianjin. Airbus opened in Chengdu the first aircraft lifecycle service center outside Europe.

Valeo will build a comfort and driving assistance systems manufacturing and R&D site in Shanghai. AstraZeneca will invest $470 million to build a small molecule drug factory in Wuxi, Jiangsu Province. GE Healthcare China has committed to double R&D spending in three years.

Of course, opening-up needs to be a two-way street. It should not be a solo, but a chorus by all. China has opened its arms to the world, and we expect others to do the same. If anyone is bent on constraining the flow of knowledge, technology, talents, and other factors of innovation by building a "small yard, high fence," suppressing others' competitive platforms and industrial capacity through decoupling, and trying to monopolize innovation resources, it would only widen the technological divide and stifle global development.

The international community needs to uphold the principles of openness, fairness, justice and non-discrimination, jointly facilitate the flow of innovation factors, explore new growth drivers, and enhance creativity and cooperation with an open mind so as to achieve common prosperity for all.

Some observers have warned that China's economy could become overburdened by the new direction and that China's long period of rapid growth has peaked. How do you address these concerns?

Some people claim that China's "overcapacity" is posing threats to other countries. The accusation is untenable. Globally, high-quality industrial capacity and new-quality productive forces are not excessive, but in dire scarcity. How to ensure the world, especially developing countries, benefits from such capacity is a constant test for human conscience and ingenuity.

The vigorous growth of China's new energy sector relies on the businesses' innovation edge forged amid global competition and high-quality products, not on so-called subsidies or protection. Look at the two largest electric vehicle enterprises in China: BYD, a private company; and Tesla , an American one. Also, China's green capacity is enabling the developing world to meet emission cut targets and accelerate green transition.

The Al-Shuaibah solar photovoltaic project undertaken by a Chinese company in Saudi Arabia alone will reduce 242 million tons of CO2 emissions, equivalent to the impact of planting 545 million trees. Isn't it a good thing if China's high-quality industrial capacity, including in new energy, can help the international community attain the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and Paris Agreement goals at a faster pace?

New quality productive forces will not only invigorate China's high-quality growth but also provide impetus for global sustainable development. High-standard opening-up is the path China must take to achieve greater development, and will also bring dividends to the world. China's ever-expanding, upgrading supersize market is both a solid foundation for its own growth and a historical opportunity for win-win cooperation among countries.

What people should worry about is not whether China's growth would peak, but whether they would miss the opportunities in China. And rather than speculating about whether the Chinese economy would collapse, what should truly alarm people is how decoupling could drag down global recovery and [how] geopolitical conflicts could end the eight-decade-long world peace.

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US-Russian Contention in Cyberspace

The overarching question imparting urgency to this exploration is: Can U.S.-Russian contention in cyberspace cause the two nuclear superpowers to stumble into war? In considering this question we were constantly reminded of recent comments by a prominent U.S. arms control expert: At least as dangerous as the risk of an actual cyberattack, he observed, is cyber operations’ “blurring of the line between peace and war.” Or, as Nye wrote, “in the cyber realm, the difference between a weapon and a non-weapon may come down to a single line of code, or simply the intent of a computer program’s user.”

The Geopolitics of Renewable Hydrogen

Renewables are widely perceived as an opportunity to shatter the hegemony of fossil fuel-rich states and democratize the energy landscape. Virtually all countries have access to some renewable energy resources (especially solar and wind power) and could thus substitute foreign supply with local resources. Our research shows, however, that the role countries are likely to assume in decarbonized energy systems will be based not only on their resource endowment but also on their policy choices.

What Comes After the Forever Wars

As the United States emerges from the era of so-called forever wars, it should abandon the regime change business for good. Then, Washington must understand why it failed, writes Stephen Walt.

Telling Black Stories: What We All Can Do

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Prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Chinese enjoyed unfettered access to Europe's economic, research, and academic domains. Chinese President Xi Jinping's friendship pact with Russian President Vladimir Putin resulted in negative reverberations throughout European capitals and raised concerns about China's strategic ambitions and their impact on Europe. The presentation will examine the change in Europe's assessment of Chinese ambitions since the initiation of the war in Ukraine and likely impact on Chinese engagement activities going forward, including the need for a stronger transatlantic coordination.

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The Chinese Economy

Mar 24, 2019

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The Chinese Economy. THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA. Some Basics. Land: 3.70 million square miles (7.1% of the world total) C apital: Beijing Government Type: Communist State Population (2008 est.): 1,330,044,544 (over 20% of the world total) P opulation growth rate (2009 est.): 0.665%

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Presentation Transcript

THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA

Some Basics • Land: 3.70 million square miles (7.1% of the world total) • Capital: Beijing • Government Type: Communist State • Population (2008 est.): 1,330,044,544 (over 20% of the world total) • Population growth rate (2009 est.): 0.665% • Life expectancy at birth (2009 est.) : total population: 73.47 years Male: 71.61 years, Female: 75.52 years • Literacy rate : 93% • GDP (2008) 30.067 trillion yuan (4.4216 trillion U.S. dollars) • Real GDP growth   7-9 % (2009 est.)  http://www.chinability.com/index.html http://www.chinaview.cn/index.htm

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/GDP-Per-Capita.aspx?Symbol=CNY http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/GDP-Per-Capita.aspx?Symbol=CNY

Brief Look at the Chinese Economy Today* • East Asia has been the fastest-growing region in the world over the past two decades, the East Asian currency crisis of 1997-98 notwithstanding. • China is the fastest growing country in East Asia—approximately 9% p.a. since beginning of economic reform (1979) and close to 8% over the past five years. • Between 1979 and 2008, Chinese real GDP grew from $177 billion to $3.0 trillion (official exchange rate (2ndlargest GDP in the world) and real GDP per capita grew from $183 to slightly less than $2,000. *adopted from: “The Chinese Transition to a Market Economy: Status and Challenges”, Hope and Lau, Stanford University

The core of the Chinese reform program, especially in 1979-1993 was the re-introduction of markets. • China is still a socialist country, but one of the few to have made a successful transition from a centrally planned to a market economy • In 35 years, China’s economy has experienced a profound transformation, with shares of GDP changing from agriculture to manufacturing. • Another important structural transformation has seen the private (non-state) sector account for more or more of GDP • China’s trade has expanded faster than the economy, with trade close to US$ 2 trillion expected for 2009 http://www.chinability.com/Reserves.htm • Foreign direct investment was reported at $93 billion in 2008; and foreign exchange reserves at over US$2.2 trillion at the end of 2009.

Share of GDP Source: http://www.chinability.com/GDP.htm

US Trade with China : 2008

Historical Background End of the Ch’ing Dynasty (1644-1911) 1911 Instability, Revolts, Invasions, and Civil War Mao’s Communist Victory 1949 1950 Intervention in the Korean War (November) Decay of Chinese-Soviet Relations 1966 Soviet-Chinese Border Clashes 1969 Cultural Revolution 1972 Nixon Plays the “China Card” 1976 Death of Mao 1978 “Market Reforms” Begin Slowly 2001 Joined WTO

Chinese Socialism: The First Decade • Mao Zedong proclaims People’s Republic in 1949 • Mao takes leadership as Chief of State • Initial tasks • collectivization of land • nationalization of industry • Followed typical (Stalinist) planned socialist model • heavy industry high priority, agriculture low priority • aggregate investment 20% - 25% of national product • 85% industrial investment goes to heavy industry • 8% state investment goes to agriculture • by end of Mao period, industry share in national output much higher than other countries at similar level of development

Collectivization of Agriculture • First step was redistribution of land from the landlords to the peasants • Major farming equipment provided by village authorities • Collectivization involved organizing households into large production teams • Finally led to the commune (after Great Leap Forward)

Nationalization of Industry • Slow and orderly transfer from private to state ownership • by 1956, 68% value of output by state owned enterprises (SOE) and 16% by jointly owned (state-private) enterprises • Planning mechanisms and priorities and enterprise management same as Soviet Union • Same problems • poor quality, shortages, inefficiency, etc.

Political and Economic Turmoil • Hundred Flowers Campaign (1956-7) • Mao unhappy with the Communist Part leadership • invites constructive criticism from intellectuals • reveals deep hostility • Great Leap Forward (1958-1960) • massive resurgence of ideology • last vestiges of rural private property eliminated • commune system established • attempt to initiate rapid growth and industrialization • economic disaster after years of solid growth • economy collapses and does not recover to 1958 level until 1963

The Rural People’s Commune • Created during the Great Leap Forward (1958-1960) • Individual households organized into production teams • Production teams combined to form brigades • Brigades combined into a commune • thousands of households in a commune • Communes were controlled by the county • County played major role in implementing the plans of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry

Organization of Agriculture Prior to Reform Era Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry County Commune Brigade Production Team Household

Individual Incentives in the Commune • Individuals assigned work for which they earned points as shares of residual income • revenue minus expenses • Positive externality (free-rider) problem • little incentive to work hard • little incentive for individual initiative Explain!

Recovery from the Great Leap • Communist Party exerts control • Mao removed as chief of state • Recovery from Great Leap emphasizes • less focus on output growth and more on quality and efficiency • more balanced economic development • modernization of agriculture • decentralization

The Cultural Revolution • Mao’s struggle to retake supreme leadership culminates in the Cultural Revolution • peaks from 1966 to 1969 • more upheaval • lost generation of leadership as universities closed and students sent to the countryside • No increase in GDP from 1965 to 1970

Recovery from the Cultural Revolution • Led by Zhou Enlai • advocated moderate path of industrialization • engineered rapprochement with West, especially the US • Richard Nixon’s visit

The End of the Stalinist Period • Both Zhou and Mao die in 1976 • Gang of Four Trial • Mao’s wife and three others arrested and discredited • Stalinist thinking repudiated • political maneuverings end in 1978 with rise of Deng Xiaoping • reform period begins

The Transition from a Centrally Planned Economy to a Market Economy • The meaning of transition • replacement of administrative allocation by market allocation • replacement of administered prices by market prices

Internal vs. External Processes • Undeniably, the market reform started by Deng Xiaoping in 1978 is a huge success. In a matter of two decades, China changed from an inward-looking, poor country into one of the largest exporters and fastest growing economy of the world. • To discuss and explain the success of the reform, one has to look into both internal and external processes of the reform. It is the interaction between the internal and external processes that enables the success of the reform. • Internal processes refer to the restructuring of the domestic economy and society made possible by a series of reform policy initiated by Deng. • External processes refer to economic and social processes in the East Asian region that accelerated the growth of China.

Internal Process of post-Mao reform The post-Mao reform that began after 1978 can be roughly divided into three stages. • Rural Reform • Urban Reform • Marketization

Three Stages of Post Mao Reform First stage: around 1978-1985: • At this stage, reform measures mostly concerned the rural area. Communes were dismantled and peasants got the “right of use” of small plots of land. They became free to manage their own land and sell their produces in the market. • It gave rise to rapid growth in agricultural productivity and improvement in peasants’ livelihood, as peasants’ got a lot more initiatives to work hard. • At the same time, local rural industries emerged in the form of township and village enterprises (TVEs) and in the form of factories run by foreign capital in special economic zones.

Second stage: around 1985-1989 • Given the phenomenal success of rural reform, the Chinese leadership embarked on urban reform after the mid-1980s. • One important measure was to lessen state’s control over prices of commodities. This immediately triggered wild inflation and rampant corruption. • The hardship and popular resentment caused by inflation and corruption contributed to the escalation of discontent that finally led to the unrest in 1989.

Third stage: around 1990-present • After 1989, Chinese leaders not only tried to restore law and order, but also tried to redress the hyper-inflation in the late 1980s, whichwas thought to be a major cause of unrest. • It led to a series of macro-economic measures that tightened monetary supply in the early to mid-1990s. It led to the “soft-landing” of the economy. • But the urban market reform did not stop. More decentralization, marketization, and slackening of rules followed suit.

Major factors Contributing to the Success of the Reform (1) China was not affected by the debt crisis that troubled many other developing as well as socialist countries in the early 1980s. As a result, autonomy of the Chinese government in regulating the economy remained intact. Chinese leaders can hence develop the reform strategy that fits China’s most, rather than enacting the formula prescribed by Western institutions (such as IMF and World Bank).

(2) China adopted a “trial and error” path of gradual reform, instead of the “shock therapy” method adopted by Russia and Eastern European countries (3) Large percentage of Chinese population was rural. This huge rural population provided the coastal industries and TVEs with abundant supply of cheap labor. But the above factors are insufficient in explaining China’s success. The following external factors have to be taken into account as well.

External Processes that Contributed to the Success of China’s Reform • Some argue that the rise of China is actually a continuation of the rise of East Asia (including Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore). • In the beginning, people thought that China was just another goose like the four tigers and other new tigers in Southeast Asia. • After a while, however, people began to realize that China is far from an ordinary goose. There are two distinct characteristics of China:

2. Size The size of China (including its market size, size of the pool of talents, etc.) is much bigger than any other single economy in East Asia. Once it takes off, it becomes a huge magnet that drains the capital from other East Asian economies. Its highly competitive products, exported to the Western markets in huge amount, nearly squeezes many other export-oriented economies in the region out of business.

Additional Factors - Integration into Global Economy • Exports gave ready employment for freed up agricultural labor in labor intensive production in TVEs • allowed China to import modern technology • encouraged foreign direct investment which increased capital stock, access to modern technology, and efficient western management

Factor Markets: Labor • Historically, Chinese market impeded by administrative restraint on ability of workers to relocate • Mobility reduced further by lack of portability of benefits (housing, pensions, health insurance) • Experimentation on the margin, becoming widespread in new century. Driving forces: • Reform of government and SOEs • Continuing decline of agricultural work force • Emergence of private employers and shortages of senior managerial and technical skills (ADB 2003) • Mobility-enhancing developments in provision of social security, housing

Factor Markets: Labor • Cracks in the “iron rice bowl;” but true flexibility of labor practices might be over-stated by numbers • Pilot projects to standardize and modernize employment practices in 100 cities nationwide • Apparent transition from a system of guaranteed employment with little choice of employer, to one offering considerable choice of jobs with less security of long-term employment

Factor Markets: Foreign Exchange • Strikingly successful achievement of reform – unification of the foreign exchange rate • Unified exchange rate since 1/94; stable at 8.3 to dollar for 15 years and now at about 6.8 Yuan to the dollar • Expected to appreciate • Interbank market in foreign exchange established 4/94 • Current account convertibility since 12/96 • Scope for establishing a more efficient foreign exchange market initially by widening intervention bands

Chinese Yuan to US Dollar Currency Exchange Rate Past Trend, Present Value and Future Projection http://forecasts.org/yuan.htm

Regional Development • Twenty cities subsequently approved as Economic and Technological Development Districts (ETDD) • SEZs and ETDDs exempted from most controls on foreign investment and private ownership • Result is much faster growth, especially in non-state sector • Regional disparities a major problem • Certain places (mostly coastal) targeted for faster transition • began in 1980 when four southern coastal sites were designated Special Economic Zones (SEZ) • Shantou • Shenzhen • Xiamen • Zhuhai • Hainan Island added in 1988

China and WTO • China’s effort to apply for membership of WTO redoubled over the 1990s, and it ended up in China’s accession into the organization in 2001. The followings are examples of what is changes have occurred under WTO:

Tariffs on agricultural products have declined drastically, US producers are now allowed to export bulk produces (wheat, rice, etc) to China. 2) Tariffs on imports of industrial goods have been reduced considerably, foreign companies have increasing rights to sell, distribute and market industrial goods without any Chinese middlemen. In particular, China has cut tariffs on imported automobiles from the 80-100 percent level in 2001 to 10 percent in by 2009. 3) Foreign banks now allowed to carry on more activities in China. http://www.pwchk.com/webmedia/doc/633816091503294132_fs_foreign_banks_china_jun2009.pdf

Challenges • Legal system/rule of law • private property rights still lacking • business cannot turn to legal system to enforce contracts • self enforcement • protection from political elite • Corruption • Privatization • Managers of SOEs don’t want to give up power • SOEs continue to be a huge drain on economy • Agricultural reform • incomplete ownership of land • disincentive to improve land • reduces potential productivity of land

Challenges • Financial reform • near monopoly of state on banking • savings channeled to inefficient capital formation in SOEs • International finance • full convertibility • Trade relations • Continuing to meet the requirements of WTO • Improvement of trade relations with US, EU, Taiwan, other Asian countries

Challenges • Social safety net • current hodge-podge • not a immediate need as in other transitional economies • rural population to large extent self-sufficient • continued support of SOEs reduces urban unemployment problem • lack of political reform prevents the poor from having a voice • as SOEs privatized, unemployment will soar • rural population has much lower income and access to health care

Challenges • Regional policy • most growth from Special Economic Zones and Development Areas • huge income differential between coastal and interior provinces • Population policy • slowing population growth • slowing/preventing migration to cities • Macroeconomic policy • reform of tax structure • stabilization

Challenges • Environment - current issues: • Air pollution (greenhouse gases, sulfur dioxide particulates) from reliance on coal produces acid rain • water shortages, particularly in the north • water pollution from untreated wastes • Deforestation • estimated loss of one-fifth of agricultural land since 1949 to soil erosion and economic development • trade in endangered species

Challenges • Global/U.S. economic slowdown lasting can cause China’s economic growth sluggish and market (most sectors) downsize dramatically • IS 4 trillion RMB enough? • Saving vs. Spending • USD and RMB value disputes between U.S. and China • Trade disputes between U.S. and China • Banking trouble again: non-performing loans rising? • GDP growth rate lowering than 8% may cause high unemployment, and further cause social instability

Will China Become A Democracy? • Tiananmen Square 1989 • General Hypothesis: • Economic Development ---(+)---> Political Development • Optimists: • -- Seeds of Democracy Have Been Planted • Pessimists: • a) Low GNP per Capita • b) Exchange Economic Rewards for Political Silence • c) Peasants are Conservative Majority

A Prediction • China – First to Recover? • Premier Wen Jiabao said last year that China’s economy is showing positive changes • China aims to be the first to recover • Start to recover in the 2nd half of 2009, and gain full steam in 2011 • Sectors to Recover First • Real estate, construction, steel and other construction materials, auto, telecom, financial, home appliances, and energy • Transformation of Growth Pattern • Now: excess consumption of natural resources; environmental pollution; too much investment; insufficient domestic consumption • Aim: more sustainable and steady growth with a better skilled work force and technological innovation; boost domestic consumption

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International Film Camp Awards Winners

• April 15, 2024 — 14:19 CST

Organised by Asian Film Awards Academy and sponsored by Sands China

Macao , April 15, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- The International Film Camp (IFC) successfully concluded with a closing ceremony and awards presentation Saturday at The Londoner Macao, marking the culmination of a ground-breaking initiative aimed at nurturing and empowering the next generation of Asian filmmakers.

Organised by the Asian Film Awards Academy and sponsored by Sands China Ltd., the IFC invited world-class film professionals as mentors to provide specialised guidance to the young generation aspiring to develop careers in the film industry, focusing on film creativity and the business aspects. Through artistic exchanges, the camp was aimed to enrich the participants' creative potential, enhance their industry knowledge, and strengthen their practical skills, hence laying a solid foundation for their future endeavours in the world of cinema. Participants in the camp may receive sponsorship for production funding, and their creative works will have the opportunity to be screened internationally through the Asian Film Awards Academy.

The International Film Camp took place April 9-13 at Sands China's integrated resorts, with the patronage of the Hong Kong Culture, Sports and Tourism Bureau and the Cultural Affairs Bureau of Macao SAR Government, and under the sponsorship of Create Hong Kong, the Film Development Fund, and Sands China Ltd.

Dr. Wilfred Wong , executive vice chairman of Sands China Ltd., expressed his enthusiasm for the event and said: "The highly-anticipated inaugural International Film Camp is the result of an unprecedented collaboration between Hong Kong and Macao , marking a significant milestone for the development of the Macao film industry. Exceptional film talent from various Asian regions converged in the city, providing guidance and inspiration for the future leaders of the film industry.

"With its strong and well-planned line-up of instructors, the camp achieved an overwhelming response from registrants and Sands China was honoured to be a collaborating partner in this event. We are grateful to the organiser, the Asian Film Awards Academy, and our commitment to nurturing film talent remains unwavering as we strive to uplift the film industry in Macao and across Asia . We extend our heartfelt congratulations to the talented filmmakers who have received the funding, and we encourage all the aspiring participants of the camp to remain steadfast in their beliefs and fearlessly transform their dreams into reality."

The inaugural International Film Camp received an overwhelming response, with 550 applications submitted from all over Asia . After a rigorous selection process, 16 participants were chosen to attend the camp. Among them, eight project winners were selected to receive guidance from professional mentors throughout the production process and a sponsorship of HKD 300,000 each to complete the filming of their short films on the theme "My Hometown." The completed projects will be showcased during the annual Asian Film Festival, and the winners will receive assistance from the Asian Film Awards Academy in applying for international film festivals, providing them with increased exposure and development opportunities in the global film industry.

The mentorship team and guest speakers of the International Film Camp included distinguished members such as renowned film festival director, producer, and writer Roger Garcia , acclaimed Hong Kong director and screenwriter Mabel Cheung , famous Singaporean director and screenwriter Anthony Chen , as well as emerging Macao directors Tracy Choi and Hong Heng Fai , among others.

At Saturday's closing ceremony and awards presentation, a panel discussion titled "The Future of Filmmaking" was held, where film producers shared their industry experiences and insights on creating remarkable works in a fiercely competitive environment. The eight winners that were selected to receive funding for their short films were also announced at the ceremony.

Sands China's sponsorship of the International Film Camp aligns with its commitment to support the development of local artistic talent under the visionary guidance of the Macao SAR government's '1+4' strategy for moderate diversification, as well as the 'tourism+' and 'culture+' policies.

The eight winners that were selected to receive funding for their short films are:

About Sands China Ltd. 

Sands China Ltd. (Sands China or the Company) is incorporated in the Cayman Islands with limited liability and is listed on The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (HKEx: 1928). Sands China is the largest operator of integrated resorts in Macao . The Company's integrated resorts on the Cotai Strip comprise The Venetian ®  Macao, The Plaza ®  Macao, The Parisian Macao and The Londoner ®  Macao. The Company also owns and operates Sands ®  Macao on the Macao peninsula. The Company's portfolio features a diversified mix of leisure and business attractions and transportation operations, including large meeting and convention facilities; a wide range of restaurants; shopping malls; world-class entertainment at the Cotai Arena, The Londoner Arena, The Venetian Theatre, The Parisian Theatre, the Londoner Theatre and the Sands Theatre; and a high-speed Cotai Water Jet ferry service between Hong Kong and Macao . The Company's Cotai Strip portfolio has the goal of contributing to Macao's transformation into a world centre of tourism and leisure. Sands China is a subsidiary of global resort developer  Las Vegas Sands Corp.  (NYSE: LVS).

For more information, please visit www.sandschina.com .

Media contacts:

Corporate Communications, Venetian Macau Limited Mabel Wu Tel: +853 8118 2268 Email:  [email protected]  

Jesse Chiang Tel: +853 8118 2054 Email:  [email protected]

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