hypothesis definition agriculture

Oasis Theory Links Climate Change and the Invention of Agriculture

Desiccation at the End of the Pleistocene Could Be the Catalyst

Ancient Civilizations
Excavations
History of Animal and Plant Domestication
M.A., Anthropology, University of Iowa
B.Ed., Illinois State University

The Oasis Theory (known variously as the Propinquity Theory or Desiccation Theory) is a core concept in archaeology, referring to one of the main hypotheses about the origins of agriculture: that people started to domesticate plants and animals because they were forced to, because of climate change .

The fact that people changed from hunting and gathering to farming as a subsistence method has never seemed like a logical choice. To archaeologists and anthropologists, hunting and gathering in a universe of limited population and plentiful resources is less demanding work than plowing, and certainly more flexible. Agriculture requires cooperation, and living in settlements reaps social impacts, like diseases, ranking, social inequality , and division of labor.

Most European and American social scientists in the first half of the 20th century simply didn't believe that human beings were naturally inventive or inclined to change their ways of life unless compelled to do so. Nevertheless, at the end of the last Ice Age , people did reinvent their method of living.

What Do Oases Have to Do With the Origins of Agriculture?

The Oasis Theory was defined by Australian-born archaeologist Vere Gordon Childe [1892-1957], in his 1928 book, The Most Ancient Near East . Childe was writing decades before the invention of radiocarbon dating and a half-century before the serious collection of the vast amount of climatic information that we have today had begun. He argued that at the end of the Pleistocene, North Africa and the Near East experienced a period of desiccation, a period of an increased occurrence of drought, with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation. That aridity, he argued, drove both people and animals to congregate at oases and river valleys; that propinquity created both population growth and a closer familiarity with plants and animals. Communities developed and were pushed out of the fertile zones, living on the edges of the oases where they were forced to learn how to raise crops and animals in places that were not ideal.

Childe was not the first scholar to suggest that cultural change can be driven by environmental change--that was American geologist Raphael Pumpelly [1837-1923] who suggested in 1905 that central Asian cities collapsed because of desiccation. But during the first half of the 20th century, the available evidence suggested that farming appeared first on the dry plains of Mesopotamia with the Sumerians, and the most popular theory for that adoption was environmental change.

Modifying the Oasis Theory

Generations of scholars beginning in the 1950s with Robert Braidwood , in the 1960s with Lewis Binford , and in the 1980s with Ofer Bar-Yosef , built, dismantled, rebuilt, and refined the environmental hypothesis. And along the way, dating technologies and the ability to identify evidence and timing of past climate change blossomed. Since then, oxygen-isotope variations have allowed scholars to develop detailed reconstructions of the environmental past, and a vastly improved picture of past climate change has been developed.

Maher, Banning, and Chazen recently compiled comparative data on radiocarbon dates on cultural developments in the Near East and radiocarbon dates on climatic events during that period. They noted there is substantial and growing evidence that the transition from hunting and gathering to agriculture was a very long and variable process, lasting thousands of years in some places and with some crops. Further, the physical effects of climate change also were and are variable across the region: some regions were severely impacted, others less so.

Maher and colleagues concluded that climate change alone cannot have been the sole trigger for specific shifts in technological and cultural change. They add that that doesn't disqualify climatic instability as providing the context for the long transition from mobile hunter-gatherer to sedentary agricultural societies in the Near East, but rather that the process was simply far more complex than the Oasis theory can sustain.

Childe's Theories

To be fair, though, throughout his career, Childe didn't simply attribute cultural change to environmental change: he said that you had to include significant elements of social change as drivers as well. Archaeologist Bruce Trigger put it this way, restating Ruth Tringham's comprehensive review of a handful of Childe biographies: "Childe viewed every society as containing within itself both progressive and conservative tendencies which are linked by dynamic unity as well as by persistent antagonism. The latter provides the energy that in the long run brings about irreversible social change. Hence every society contains within itself the seeds for the destruction of its present state and the creation of a new social order."

Braidwood RJ. 1957. Jericho and its Setting in Near Eastern History . Antiquity 31(122):73-81.
Braidwood RJ, Çambel H, Lawrence B, Redman CL, and Stewart RB. 1974. Beginnings of Village-Farming Communities in Southeastern Turkey--1972. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 71(2):568-572.
Childe VG. 1969. New Light on the Most Ancient East . London: Norton & Company.
Childe VG. 1928. The Most Ancient Near East . London: Norton & Company.
Maher LA, Banning EB, and Chazan M. 2011. Oasis or Mirage? Assessing the Role of Abrupt Climate Change in the Prehistory of the Southern Levant . Cambridge Archaeological Journal 21(01):1-30.
Trigger BG. 1984. Childe and Soviet Archaeology. Australian Archaeology 18:1-16.
Tringham R. 1983. V. Gordon Childe 25 Years After: His Relevance for the Archaeology of the Eighties. Journal of Field Archaeology 10(1):85-100.
Verhoeven M. 2011. The Birth of a Concept and the Origins of the Neolithic: A History of Prehistoric Farmers in the Near East. Paléorient oasis37(1):75-87.
Weisdorf JL. 2005. From Foraging To Farming: Explaining The Neolithic Revolution. Journal of Economic Surveys 19(4):561-586.
Wright HE. 1970. Environmental Changes and the Origin of Agriculture in the near East. BioScience 20(4):210-217.
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oasis theory

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A general theory explaining the development of agriculture and the Neolithic way of life that was first put forward by Pumpelly in 1908, reiterated by Newberry in 1924, and popularized by Gordon Childe, in the 1920s. Simply stated, the argument runs that, as the climate got warmer and drier in the early post‐glacial period, people, plants, and animals became concentrated in relatively few and increasingly restricted fertile areas. The symbiosis that developed included the ‘domestication’ of plants and animals through the manipulation of their production and reproduction. The model has largely been abandoned, however, because there is little evidence of major desiccation in the required period.

From: oasis theory in The Concise Oxford Dictionary of Archaeology »

Subjects: Archaeology

The Art and Science of Agriculture

Agriculture is the art and science of cultivating the soil, growing crops and raising livestock.

Geography, Human Geography, Physical Geography, Social Studies, World History

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Agriculture is the art and science of cultivating the soil, growing crops, and raising livestock. It includes the preparation of plant and animal products for people to use and their distribution to markets.

Agriculture provides most of the world’s food and fabrics. Cotton, wool, and leather are all agricultural products . Agriculture also provides wood for construction and paper products.

These products, as well as the agricultural methods used, may vary from one part of the world to another.

Start of Agriculture

Over centuries, the growth of agriculture supported the development of cities. Before agriculture became widespread , hunting and gathering was how people fed themselves. Between 10,000 and 12,000 years ago, people gradually learned how to grow cereal and root crops, and settled down to a life based on farming.

Eventually, much of Earth’s population became dependent on agriculture. Scholars are not sure why this shift to farming took place, but it may have occurred because of climate change .

When people began growing crops, they also continued to adapt animals and plants for human use. Adapting wild plants and animals for people to use is called domestication . Hunter-gatherers began to domesticate animals and change the natural environment to grow more food even before settled farming became widespread.

Barley, wheat, legumes, vetch, and flax were among the first plants to be domesticated.

The first domesticated animals were dogs, which were used for hunting. Sheep and goats were probably domesticated next. People also domesticated cattle and pigs. The predecessors of most of these animals had once been hunted for hides and meat. Many of them also became sources of milk, cheese, and butter. Eventually, people used domesticated animals such as oxen for plowing, pulling, and transportation.

Agriculture enabled people to produce surplus food. They could use this extra food when crops failed or trade it for other goods.

Agriculture kept formerly nomadic people near their fields and led to the development of permanent villages. These became linked through trade. New economies were so successful in some areas that cities developed. The earliest societies based on intensive agriculture arose in the Fertile Crescent (which spans the Levant , modern-day Turkey, and Iran) and along the Nile River in Egypt. Other very early agricultural societies developed independently in Central America, East Asia, the Indus Valley, and West Africa.

Improved Technology

Many effective agricultural techniques have roots in pre-agricultural human history. For millennia, people have used controlled burning techniques to get rid of brush and debris , allowing edible plants to grow more abundantly and preventing larger wildfires during dry seasons. Today, large wildfires in North America and Australia demonstrate the importance of maintaining controlled burning practices perfected by many Native American tribes and Aboriginal Australian peoples.

Farming has also improved over the years. Early farmers cultivated small plots of land by hand, using axes to clear away trees and digging sticks to break up and till the soil. Over time, improved farming tools of bone, stone, bronze, and iron were developed. New methods of storage evolved. People began stockpiling foods in jars and clay-lined pits for use in times of scarcity. They also began making clay pots and other vessels for carrying and cooking food.

Around 5500 B.C.E., farmers in Mesopotamia developed simple irrigation systems. By channeling water from streams onto their fields, farmers were able to settle in areas once thought to be unsuited to agriculture. In Mesopotamia, Egypt, and China, people organized themselves and worked together to build and maintain better irrigation systems.

Early farmers also developed improved varieties of plants. For example, around 6000 B.C.E., a new variety of wheat arose in South Asia and Egypt. It was stronger than previous cereal grains, its hulls were easier to remove, and it could be made into bread.

As the Romans expanded their empire using warfare and coercion, they wrote manuals about the farming techniques they observed in Africa and Asia, and adapted them to land in Europe.

In China, farmers also adapted tools and methods from nearby empires. A variety of rice from Vietnam ripened quickly and allowed farmers to harvest several crops during a single growing season. This rice quickly became popular throughout China.

Many medieval European farmers used an open-field system of planting. One field would be planted in spring, another in autumn, and one would be left unplanted, or fallow. This system preserved nutrients in the soil, increasing crop production.

The leaders of the Islamic Golden Age (which reached its height around 1000 C.E.) in North Africa and the Middle East made agriculture into a science. Islamic Golden Age farmers learned crop rotation .

In the 15th and 16th centuries, explorers introduced new varieties of plants and agricultural products into Europe. From Asia, they carried home coffee, tea, and indigo, a plant used to make blue dye. From the Americas, they took plants such as potatoes, tomatoes, corn (maize), beans, peanuts, and tobacco. Some of these became staples and expanded people’s diets.

A period of important agricultural development began in the early 1700s for Great Britain and the Low Countries (Belgium, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands, which lie below sea level). New agricultural inventions dramatically increased food production in Europe and European colonies, particularly in North America.

One of the most important of these developments was an improved horse-drawn seed drill invented by Jethro Tull in England. Until that time, farmers sowed seeds by hand. Tull’s drill made rows of holes for the seeds. By the end of the 18th century, seed drilling was widely practiced in Europe.

Many machines were developed in the United States. The cotton gin , invented by Eli Whitney in 1794, reduced the time needed to separate cotton fiber from seed. The invention of the cotton gin was not without negative consequences, however: as cotton became more profitable and less labor-intensive, enslavers had incentive to buy more enslaved people to produce more cotton.

In the 1830s, Cyrus McCormick’s mechanical reaper helped modernize the grain-cutting process. At about the same time, John and Hiram Pitts introduced a horse-powered thresher that shortened the process of separating grain and seed from chaff and straw. John Deere’s steel plow, introduced in 1837, made it possible to work the tough prairie soil with much less horsepower. Along with new machines, there were several important advances in farming methods. By selectively breeding animals (breeding those with desirable traits), farmers increased the size and productivity of their livestock.

Cultures have been breeding animals for centuries. Ancestors of modern sheep, goats, cattle, and pigs were the first livestock to be bred selectively. Farmers began to practice selective breeding on a large scale beginning in 18th century Europe. An early example of this is the Leicester sheep, an animal selectively bred in England for its quality meat and long, coarse wool.

Plants could also be selectively bred for certain qualities. In 1866, Gregor Mendel’s studies in heredity were published in Austria. In experiments with pea plants, Mendel learned how traits were passed from one generation to the next. His work paved the way for improving crops through genetics.

New crop rotation methods also evolved during this time. Many of these were adopted over the next century or so throughout Europe. For example, the Norfolk four-field system, developed in England, proved quite successful. It involved the yearly rotation of several crops, including wheat, turnips, barley, clover, and ryegrass, and livestock management practices, in which animals grazed in selected fields and left animal waste behind. This added nutrients to the soil, enabling farmers to grow enough to sell some of their harvest without having to leave any land unplanted.

Agricultural Science

Between 1960 and 2000, staple crop yields in low- and middle-income countries like Mexico and India increased substantially. How did this great leap in productivity come about? It happened largely because of scientific advances and the development of new sources of power.

By the late 1950s, most farmers in high-income countries were using both gasoline and electricity to power machinery. Tractors had replaced draft animals and steam-powered machinery. Farmers were using machines in almost every stage of cultivation and livestock management.

Electricity first became a power source on farms in Japan and Germany in the early 1900s. By 1960, most farms in the U.S. and other high-income countries were electrified. Electricity lit farm buildings and powered such machinery as water pumps, milking machines, and feeding equipment. Today, electricity controls entire environments in livestock barns and poultry houses.

Traditionally, farmers have used a variety of methods to protect their crops from pests and diseases. They have put herb-based poisons on crops, handpicked insects off plants, bred strong varieties of crops, and rotated crops to control insects. Now, almost all farmers, especially in high-income countries, rely on chemicals to control pests. The definition of “pest” ranges from insects to animals such as rabbits and mice, as well as weeds and disease-causing organisms—bacteria, viruses, and fungi. With the use of chemicals, crop losses and prices have declined dramatically.

For thousands of years, farmers relied on natural fertilizer —materials such as manure, wood ash, ground bones, fish or fish parts, and bird and bat waste called guano—to replenish or increase nutrients in the soil. Some farmers, particularly those that grow organic crops, still use natural fertilizers.

In the early 1800s, scientists discovered which elements were most essential to plant growth: nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. Now, many farmers use chemical fertilizers with nitrates and phosphates because they greatly increase crop yields.

However, pesticides and fertilizers have come with another set of problems. The heavy reliance on chemicals has disturbed the environment, often contaminating the surrounding soil and water while being toxic to birds, fish, and other species that farmers do not intend to target. Chemical use may also pose a health hazard to people, especially through contaminated water supplies. Agricultural scientists are looking for safer chemicals to use as fertilizers and pesticides. Some farmers use natural controls and rely less on chemicals.

Farming in Water

Agriculture includes such forms of cultivation as hydroponics and aquaculture . Both involve farming in water.

Hydroponics is the science of growing plants in nutrient solutions. Just one acre of nutrient solution can yield more than 50 times the amount of lettuce grown on the same amount of soil.

Aquaculture—primarily the cultivation of fish and shellfish—was practiced in China, India, and Egypt thousands of years ago. It is now used in lakes, ponds, the ocean, and other bodies of water throughout the world. Some forms of aquaculture, such as shrimp farming, have become important industries in many Asian and Latin American countries.

Climate change and improved technology are altering the way freshwater and ocean fisheries operate. Global warming has pushed warm-water species toward the poles and reduced the habitats of cold-water species. Traditional fishing communities in both developed and developing countries find the number of fish dwindling.

Bottom trawling has affected ocean ecosystems . In bottom trawling, enormous nets are strung from fishing boats and dragged at the bottom of the ocean. The nets catch halibut and squid, but also stir up sediment at the bottom of the ocean. This disturbs the marine life (plankton and algae) that forms the basis of the food chain .

Genetic Modification

For centuries, people have bred new types of plants and animals through experimentation. During the 1950sand 1960s, scientists developed new strains of high-yield wheat and rice. They introduced them into Mexico and parts of Asia. As a result, production of grain soared in these areas. This bold experiment in agriculture has been called the "Green Revolution."

With the successes of the Green Revolution came problems. To produce high yields, the new strains required chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and irrigation. In many low- and middle-income countries, independent farmers cannot afford the new technology and big business has taken over agriculture. The new, high-production crops also put stress on native plants and animals.

Later, scientists and farmers understood how the new strains developed. This gave rise to a new green revolution: genetic modification of food.

Inside every cell are genes, material that determines many of the characteristics of an organism. Genetics is the study of what characteristics organisms inherit and how these traits are transmitted. With a greater knowledge of genetics, people can scientifically select characteristics they want to reproduce. New technology has revolutionized the selective breeding process in both plants and animals.

Beginning in the 1970s, scientists found that they could rearrange genes and add new ones to promote disease resistance, productivity, and other desired characteristics in crops and livestock. These genetically modified organisms (GMOs or GM foods) are now common throughout the developed world. Biotechnology allows scientists to alter the DNA of microbes, plants, and animals. GMOs that have genetic material, or DNA, from other species are called transgenic organisms.

A gene from an Arctic plant, for example, could be added (spliced) into the DNA of a strawberry plant to increase the strawberry’s resistance to cold and thus extend its growing season. The strawberry would be a transgenic plant.

Biotechnology has brought advances in animal husbandry (ranching, or the raising of domestic animals). Today’s farm animals are larger and grow faster than their predecessors.

Cattle, for example, are grazing animals. Their digestive system has evolved to process grasses and other crops. Corn and other grains cause a cow’s digestive system to become acidic. That makes it easier for dangerous bacteria (such as E.coli) to develop. Bacterial infections can be harmful to the cow, and can also infect their milk and meat consumed by people. Antibiotics are spliced into the DNA of feed corn to prevent such infection. Antibiotics have been used since the 1950s to stimulate cattle growth. Over time, this practice has led to the development of antibiotic-resistant bacteria in cattle and people. Many cattle are also given anabolic steroids, or growth hormones, to make them get bigger, faster.

Farmers who grow GM foods increase production with less labor and less land. Many consumers favor GM foods. Vegetables and fruits last longer and are less likely to bruise. Meats are fattier—more tender and salty.

Most of the world’s farmers live in low- and middle-income countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Some of them cultivate land as their ancestors did hundreds or even thousands of years ago. They may not use agricultural technology involving expensive chemicals or production methods.

Many of the world’s farmers are subsistence farmers. They use the bulk of the food they produce for themselves and their families, unlike commercial farmers, who only grow crops to sell.

Methods of Cultivation

Agricultural methods often vary widely around the world, depending on climate, terrain, traditions, and available technology.

Low-technology farming involves permanent crops: food grown on land that is not replanted after each harvest. Citrus trees and coffee plants are examples of permanent crops. Higher-technology farming involves crop rotation, which requires knowledge of farmable land. Scholars and engineers not only use crop rotation and irrigation, but plant crops according to the season, type of soil, and amount of water needed.

In coastal West Africa, farmers, usually women, plant corn soon after the first rains of the growing season. They often use an ancient method of clearing called slash-and-burn. First, the farmer cuts all the brush in her plot. When this vegetation dries, she sets fire to it. The heat from the fire makes the soil easy to turn, and the burned vegetation fertilizes it. The farmer then sows kernels of corn saved from the previous year’s harvest.

Between rows of corn, the coastal West African farmer plants other staple crops: legumes, such as peas, or root vegetables, such as yams. This practice of growing several crops in the same plot is called intercropping. By covering most of the ground with vegetation, intercropping prevents moisture loss and soil erosion from seasonal rains.

Rain supplies water for the growing plants. The farmer weeds her plot with a hoe. At harvest time, she and her family pick the corn, husk it, and spread the ears in the sun to dry. They grind the dried corn to make porridge.

Traditionally, the coastal West African farmer uses the same plot for several years, until its fertility declines. Then she moves to another plot, leaving the first to lie fallow for up to 10 years. Now, an increasing population has caused fallow periods to be reduced and has made permanent cultivation more common.

Agricultural methods used in the Corn Belt of the U.S. are very different. The Corn Belt is the area of the northern Midwest where most of the nation’s corn crop is grown. First of all, farmers rarely work alone—the size of U.S. farms requires a lot of labor. Soon after they harvest the corn in autumn, farmers work leftover vegetation, or stubble, into the soil. In the spring, farmers work the soil again, using an implement with rows of sharp-edged steel discs, called a disc harrow. The discs cut into the soil, breaking it into smaller pieces and supplying it with air.

Next, a tractor-pulled planter sows rows of seed. The machine makes furrows in the soil, drops in kernels of high-yield, genetically modified corn, and covers them with dirt. After the corn seeds have sprouted, another machine injects liquid fertilizer into the ground.

The farmers then use chemicals to control weeds and pests, and loosen the soil with a tractor-pulled cultivator during the harvesting season.

U.S. industrial farmers may plant a thousand acres of just corn. The practice of specializing in a single crop is known as monoculture. To harvest the crop, farmers use a mechanical harvester that picks the ears of corn and shells them into a bin.

Little of the corn grown in the Corn Belt is for human consumption. Most of the corn grown in the U.S. is for cattle feed and industrial uses, such as corn syrup sweeteners.

From alpacas in Peru to zebus in India, billions of domesticated animals around the world are raised and cared for in a variety of ways. In many countries, domesticated animals are an important source of food.

In Nigeria, for example, the Fulani people have long been pastoralists and nomads. They move with their cattle herds from one grazing area to another. The cattle feed on scrub and grasses in land unsuitable for farming. The Fulani rely on cattle for milk, but rarely slaughter their animals for meat.

Throughout the U.S., beef cattle are bred to grow quickly and yield large quantities of fatty meat. When they are five to 12 months old, the animals are shipped to feedlots. There, they are kept in pens and fed grain and vitamin supplements until they reach market size. Then they are slaughtered.

The two ways of raising livestock are confronting each other in low- and middle-income countries. In Uganda, Ankole cattle have been bred to withstand the variable climate—their long, curved horns help distribute heat and their digestive systems have adapted to poor nutrition and little water during dry seasons. However, the market for milk has driven many Ugandan farmers to import Holstein cattle. Holsteins are native to Northern Europe. Keeping them healthy in an equatorial region requires a high amount of antibiotics, vaccines, and other chemicals. The Ankole, which produce little milk and leaner meat, may be extinct within the century.

Many farmers throughout the world practice free-range poultry farming. The birds forage for food in farms or community yards, eating whatever they find: seeds, insects, household scraps, and surplus grain.

In many high-income countries, poultry production has become a major agricultural industry. Birds are given the same sort of vaccines and hormones used for cattle. Chickens are bred for either eggs or meat. One poultry house may contain more than a million birds. Often, machines automatically provide feed and water, collect the eggs, and remove waste.

Sustainability and Food Justice

In the decades following the beginning of the Green Revolution, agricultural food production has increased dramatically. Unfortunately, there are drawbacks to the farming methods and technologies that allow for this increase.

One problematic feature of industrial agriculture is land use: half of the habitable land on Earth is currently used for farming. Land that used to be home to biodiverse ecosystems has been cleared for agricultural use, and many commercial farms use monoculture farming. Though monoculture farms produce more staple crops like wheat and corn, they are more susceptible to disease, lack biodiversity, and deplete nutrients in the soil.

Another issue with industrial farming is the overuse of fertilizers, particularly fertilizers that use nutrients like nitrogen and phosphorus. Over the past 35 years, the use of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers has increased dramatically. Crops only use about one-third of the nitrogen and less than half of the phosphorus applied to them; the rest of that nitrogen and phosphorus becomes runoff that pollutes the surrounding ecosystem. This nutrient pollution creates “dead zones” in aquatic ecosystems through a process called eutrophication : algae feed on the nitrogen and phosphorus, causing algal blooms. When the excess algae die, the bacteria that decompose the dead algae use up the water’s oxygen supply, suffocating fish and other aquatic organisms.

Though irrigation allows farmers to grow crops on land that otherwise would not be usable for agriculture, it also poses a threat to the environment. Irrigation requires significant land and water use; around 70 percent of freshwater withdrawal around the world is attributed to agricultural irrigation, and only about half of this water can be reused. Building dams and reservoirs for irrigation has destroyed many ecosystems in and around lakes and rivers. Irrigation can also introduce excess salt to soil and groundwater, negatively impacting both drinking water and plants in the surrounding area.

Currently, food production is the second-largest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. Land, water, and air alike are all threatened by industrial agriculture, yet an estimated two billion people around the world still suffer from malnutrition . The issue is not that the agriculture industry does not produce enough food, but rather that the food supply is unevenly distributed. Many people cannot afford to eat enough, and those that can afford sufficient nutrition frequently waste food; one trillion dollars’ worth of food is wasted around the world every year. Experts say that if corporations and consumers in the richest countries stopped wasting food, we could save enough to feed an extra two billion people—the same portion of the population that is currently malnourished.

The fight against hunger and the fight for sustainable food systems are deeply connected. In order to meet a growing global population’s nutritional needs, the agricultural sector needs to shift its focus to environmentally sustainable food production. This may require a switch from industrial agriculture to permaculture, an ecological design system that mimics naturally existing, biodiverse environments while optimizing food production. In the meantime, corporations and governments need to collaborate to minimize food waste and provide affordable nutrition to those that buy the majority of their food, while providing economic assistance to small subsistence farmers in rural areas of low- to middle-income countries. By protecting the land, water, and air, and by sharing knowledge and resources, people may yet find solutions for the problems of world hunger and industrial agriculture.

Touchdown The size of an average farm in the United States in 2007 was 449 acres, or about the size of 449 football fields.

Big Nine Half of the total value of agricultural products in the U.S. comes from nine states.

North Carolina

Source: 2007 Census of Agriculture

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In This Article Expand or collapse the "in this article" section Agriculture

Introduction, general overviews.

Variation in Agricultural Practices
Agriculture and Intensification Theory
Agriculture as a Social Activity
Origins of Agricultural Industrialization
Modern Agricultural Industrialization
Agricultural Biotechnology
Political Ecology of Agriculture
Ethnoecology and Agriculture
New Agrarianism and Sustainability

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Agriculture by Andrew Flachs , Glenn Stone LAST REVIEWED: 25 June 2013 LAST MODIFIED: 25 June 2013 DOI: 10.1093/obo/9780199766567-0093

Because food production is so central to human life, scholars have had a long interest in agriculture, its origins, and its effects on population and society. Archaeologists generally emphasize two major revolutions in agricultural history: the Neolithic revolution in which plant and animal species were domesticated and agriculture spread and the Industrial Revolution that allowed food to be produced in ever greater quantities for a capitalist society. Although this article pays special attention to the range of preindustrial farming, some of the most important developments in this field, environmentally and socially, relate to the ongoing process of agricultural industrialization. Although agriculture can refer generally to production in a field, such processes are inextricable from horticulture, or garden production, and animal husbandry. Scholars of early agriculture and energetics often ask why people farm at all, when hunting and gathering seems to be a highly effective and efficient form of production. Others continue this line of questioning when considering the diversity of agricultural modes, asking why and how agricultural production reaches this variation in efficiency, yield, and external input. Various demographic, climatic, and social theories have been forwarded to address this key issue in agricultural development. When considered as a social process, agriculture can be understood as part of larger cultural elements including religion, state projects, industrialization, urbanization, and the spread of global capitalism. Conversely these social processes can be seen as elements of agriculture as well, especially when scholars examine disparities in access to the means of production, famine, usufruct rights, and social organization as a response to production and ecology. Industrialized, capital intensive agriculture, as well as some of its contemporary alternatives, is of special importance to social science as it seems to produce both vast quantities of food and socioeconomic hierarchies that reimagine farms as corporations.

Although distinctions are sometimes made between agriculture (field cultivation) and horticulture (gardening), this division is an arbitrary distinction and the focus here is on references that deal with cultivation of plants and animals in general. Although humans have emerged as the consummate cultivators, we evolved as hunter-gatherers; as Rindos 1984 observes, in this we differ from several species of insect that evolved as cultivators. Even among hunter-gatherers, various types of proto-cultivation have been described, and some practices involve such light control of natural processes as to challenge common conceptions of what agriculture is. Paiute Indians in California had a well-developed system of irrigation of wild grasses ( Steward 1930 ). In the New World domestic livestock played very little role in development of early cultivation systems, but crops served as a food source for animals that were harvested in what Linares 1976 calls “garden hunting.” The origin of agriculture has been a central concern of archaeology for over a century. Theories of agricultural origins cannot be neatly classified because different causal mechanisms are often combined. Evolutionary theories have ranged from those citing cultural progress or readiness ( Childe 1965 ) to more recent writing on coevolution of humans and their domesticates. Climate change theories in Childe 1965 and Binford 1968 mostly focus on varied aspects of change in physical environment at the end of the Pleistocene era that contributed to warmer and wetter conditions while Anderson 1952 notes the presence of agricultural centers of cultivation. Population pressure theories, sometimes with climate change components, have been abundant ( Binford 1968 , Cohen 1977 ), although the more recent work Hayden 2003 stresses that agriculture did not begin with staple food crops and early agriculture was probably not more productive than foraging.

Anderson, Edgar. 1952. Plants, man and life . Boston: Little, Brown.

This book has been influential in ethnobotany and in scholarship on the origins of agriculture. Following the work of Nikolai Vavilov, Anderson argues that genetic and phenotypic evidence suggests several regions of early domestication and that early cultivation may have begun in dump heaps as plants followed human camp sites.

Binford, Lewis R. 1968. Post-Pleistocene adaptations. In New perspectives in archeology . Edited by Sally R. Binford and Lewis R. Binford, 313–341. New York: Aldine.

In one of the most influential articles in 20th-century archaeology, Binford presents a general theory of agricultural origins. It links post-Pleistocene sea level changes to population pressure on coasts and resultant inland immigration.

Childe, V. Gordon. 1965. Man makes himself . 4th ed. London: Watts.

This book is an overview of human prehistory, influential in its use of a materialistic perspective. Tracing human production, Childe argues that technological and cultural progress were mutually reinforcing. Originally published in 1936.

Cohen, Mark N. 1977. The food crisis in prehistory . New Haven, CT: Yale Univ. Press.

Cohen’s book was a major attempt to explain origins of agriculture in various parts of the globe as a response to population pressure. This book argues that social organization and material culture allowed humans to use culture to expand their carrying capacity.

Hayden, Brian. 2003. Were luxury foods the first domesticates? Ethnoarcaheological perspectives from Southeast Asia. In Special issue: Luxury foods . Edited by Marijke van der Veen. World Archaeology 34:458–469.

DOI: 10.1080/0043824021000026459a

This article is one of several influential works by Hayden in which he argues that agricultural origins were driven not by food needs but by the desire for wealth items to enhance social status. This work thus argues against earlier models based on direct relations between population and agricultural growth. Available online for purchase or by subscription.

Linares, Olga F. 1976. “Garden hunting” in the American tropics. Human Ecology 4.4: 331–349.

DOI: 10.1007/BF01557917

Linares uses archaeological data to show that in coastal areas of the ancient New World, early cultivators hunted animals that fed on their crops as a form of semi-domestication. Available online for purchase or by subscription.

Rindos, David. 1984. The origins of agriculture: An evolutionary perspective . New York: Academic Press.

This book presents Rindos’s important rethinking of domestication and the spread of agriculture. Rather than as a result of human agency, agriculture results from coevolution of plant and human populations and spreads because it offers higher yet more unstable production.

Steward, Julian H. 1930. Irrigation without agriculture. Papers of the Michigan Academy of Sciences, Arts, and Letters 12:149–156.

Steward documents a surprisingly elaborate system of irrigation of wild grasses among the Owens Valley Paiute Indians. He viewed this practice as being one step removed from agriculture without practicing it, but some later scholars have seen it as actual agriculture.

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v.34(45); 2019 Nov 25

Scientific Hypotheses: Writing, Promoting, and Predicting Implications

Armen yuri gasparyan.

1 Departments of Rheumatology and Research and Development, Dudley Group NHS Foundation Trust (Teaching Trust of the University of Birmingham, UK), Russells Hall Hospital, Dudley, West Midlands, UK.

Lilit Ayvazyan

2 Department of Medical Chemistry, Yerevan State Medical University, Yerevan, Armenia.

Ulzhan Mukanova

3 Department of Surgical Disciplines, South Kazakhstan Medical Academy, Shymkent, Kazakhstan.

Marlen Yessirkepov

4 Department of Biology and Biochemistry, South Kazakhstan Medical Academy, Shymkent, Kazakhstan.

George D. Kitas

5 Arthritis Research UK Epidemiology Unit, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.

Scientific hypotheses are essential for progress in rapidly developing academic disciplines. Proposing new ideas and hypotheses require thorough analyses of evidence-based data and predictions of the implications. One of the main concerns relates to the ethical implications of the generated hypotheses. The authors may need to outline potential benefits and limitations of their suggestions and target widely visible publication outlets to ignite discussion by experts and start testing the hypotheses. Not many publication outlets are currently welcoming hypotheses and unconventional ideas that may open gates to criticism and conservative remarks. A few scholarly journals guide the authors on how to structure hypotheses. Reflecting on general and specific issues around the subject matter is often recommended for drafting a well-structured hypothesis article. An analysis of influential hypotheses, presented in this article, particularly Strachan's hygiene hypothesis with global implications in the field of immunology and allergy, points to the need for properly interpreting and testing new suggestions. Envisaging the ethical implications of the hypotheses should be considered both by authors and journal editors during the writing and publishing process.

INTRODUCTION

We live in times of digitization that radically changes scientific research, reporting, and publishing strategies. Researchers all over the world are overwhelmed with processing large volumes of information and searching through numerous online platforms, all of which make the whole process of scholarly analysis and synthesis complex and sophisticated.

Current research activities are diversifying to combine scientific observations with analysis of facts recorded by scholars from various professional backgrounds. 1 Citation analyses and networking on social media are also becoming essential for shaping research and publishing strategies globally. 2 Learning specifics of increasingly interdisciplinary research studies and acquiring information facilitation skills aid researchers in formulating innovative ideas and predicting developments in interrelated scientific fields.

Arguably, researchers are currently offered more opportunities than in the past for generating new ideas by performing their routine laboratory activities, observing individual cases and unusual developments, and critically analyzing published scientific facts. What they need at the start of their research is to formulate a scientific hypothesis that revisits conventional theories, real-world processes, and related evidence to propose new studies and test ideas in an ethical way. 3 Such a hypothesis can be of most benefit if published in an ethical journal with wide visibility and exposure to relevant online databases and promotion platforms.

Although hypotheses are crucially important for the scientific progress, only few highly skilled researchers formulate and eventually publish their innovative ideas per se . Understandably, in an increasingly competitive research environment, most authors would prefer to prioritize their ideas by discussing and conducting tests in their own laboratories or clinical departments, and publishing research reports afterwards. However, there are instances when simple observations and research studies in a single center are not capable of explaining and testing new groundbreaking ideas. Formulating hypothesis articles first and calling for multicenter and interdisciplinary research can be a solution in such instances, potentially launching influential scientific directions, if not academic disciplines.

The aim of this article is to overview the importance and implications of infrequently published scientific hypotheses that may open new avenues of thinking and research.

Despite the seemingly established views on innovative ideas and hypotheses as essential research tools, no structured definition exists to tag the term and systematically track related articles. In 1973, the Medical Subject Heading (MeSH) of the U.S. National Library of Medicine introduced “Research Design” as a structured keyword that referred to the importance of collecting data and properly testing hypotheses, and indirectly linked the term to ethics, methods and standards, among many other subheadings.

One of the experts in the field defines “hypothesis” as a well-argued analysis of available evidence to provide a realistic (scientific) explanation of existing facts, fill gaps in public understanding of sophisticated processes, and propose a new theory or a test. 4 A hypothesis can be proven wrong partially or entirely. However, even such an erroneous hypothesis may influence progress in science by initiating professional debates that help generate more realistic ideas. The main ethical requirement for hypothesis authors is to be honest about the limitations of their suggestions. 5

EXAMPLES OF INFLUENTIAL SCIENTIFIC HYPOTHESES

Daily routine in a research laboratory may lead to groundbreaking discoveries provided the daily accounts are comprehensively analyzed and reproduced by peers. The discovery of penicillin by Sir Alexander Fleming (1928) can be viewed as a prime example of such discoveries that introduced therapies to treat staphylococcal and streptococcal infections and modulate blood coagulation. 6 , 7 Penicillin got worldwide recognition due to the inventor's seminal works published by highly prestigious and widely visible British journals, effective ‘real-world’ antibiotic therapy of pneumonia and wounds during World War II, and euphoric media coverage. 8 In 1945, Fleming, Florey and Chain got a much deserved Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine for the discovery that led to the mass production of the wonder drug in the U.S. and ‘real-world practice’ that tested the use of penicillin. What remained globally unnoticed is that Zinaida Yermolyeva, the outstanding Soviet microbiologist, created the Soviet penicillin, which turned out to be more effective than the Anglo-American penicillin and entered mass production in 1943; that year marked the turning of the tide of the Great Patriotic War. 9 One of the reasons of the widely unnoticed discovery of Zinaida Yermolyeva is that her works were published exclusively by local Russian (Soviet) journals.

The past decades have been marked by an unprecedented growth of multicenter and global research studies involving hundreds and thousands of human subjects. This trend is shaped by an increasing number of reports on clinical trials and large cohort studies that create a strong evidence base for practice recommendations. Mega-studies may help generate and test large-scale hypotheses aiming to solve health issues globally. Properly designed epidemiological studies, for example, may introduce clarity to the hygiene hypothesis that was originally proposed by David Strachan in 1989. 10 David Strachan studied the epidemiology of hay fever in a cohort of 17,414 British children and concluded that declining family size and improved personal hygiene had reduced the chances of cross infections in families, resulting in epidemics of atopic disease in post-industrial Britain. Over the past four decades, several related hypotheses have been proposed to expand the potential role of symbiotic microorganisms and parasites in the development of human physiological immune responses early in life and protection from allergic and autoimmune diseases later on. 11 , 12 Given the popularity and the scientific importance of the hygiene hypothesis, it was introduced as a MeSH term in 2012. 13

Hypotheses can be proposed based on an analysis of recorded historic events that resulted in mass migrations and spreading of certain genetic diseases. As a prime example, familial Mediterranean fever (FMF), the prototype periodic fever syndrome, is believed to spread from Mesopotamia to the Mediterranean region and all over Europe due to migrations and religious prosecutions millennia ago. 14 Genetic mutations spearing mild clinical forms of FMF are hypothesized to emerge and persist in the Mediterranean region as protective factors against more serious infectious diseases, particularly tuberculosis, historically common in that part of the world. 15 The speculations over the advantages of carrying the MEditerranean FeVer (MEFV) gene are further strengthened by recorded low mortality rates from tuberculosis among FMF patients of different nationalities living in Tunisia in the first half of the 20th century. 16

Diagnostic hypotheses shedding light on peculiarities of diseases throughout the history of mankind can be formulated using artefacts, particularly historic paintings. 17 Such paintings may reveal joint deformities and disfigurements due to rheumatic diseases in individual subjects. A series of paintings with similar signs of pathological conditions interpreted in a historic context may uncover mysteries of epidemics of certain diseases, which is the case with Ruben's paintings depicting signs of rheumatic hands and making some doctors to believe that rheumatoid arthritis was common in Europe in the 16th and 17th century. 18

WRITING SCIENTIFIC HYPOTHESES

There are author instructions of a few journals that specifically guide how to structure, format, and make submissions categorized as hypotheses attractive. One of the examples is presented by Med Hypotheses , the flagship journal in its field with more than four decades of publishing and influencing hypothesis authors globally. However, such guidance is not based on widely discussed, implemented, and approved reporting standards, which are becoming mandatory for all scholarly journals.

Generating new ideas and scientific hypotheses is a sophisticated task since not all researchers and authors are skilled to plan, conduct, and interpret various research studies. Some experience with formulating focused research questions and strong working hypotheses of original research studies is definitely helpful for advancing critical appraisal skills. However, aspiring authors of scientific hypotheses may need something different, which is more related to discerning scientific facts, pooling homogenous data from primary research works, and synthesizing new information in a systematic way by analyzing similar sets of articles. To some extent, this activity is reminiscent of writing narrative and systematic reviews. As in the case of reviews, scientific hypotheses need to be formulated on the basis of comprehensive search strategies to retrieve all available studies on the topics of interest and then synthesize new information selectively referring to the most relevant items. One of the main differences between scientific hypothesis and review articles relates to the volume of supportive literature sources ( Table 1 ). In fact, hypothesis is usually formulated by referring to a few scientific facts or compelling evidence derived from a handful of literature sources. 19 By contrast, reviews require analyses of a large number of published documents retrieved from several well-organized and evidence-based databases in accordance with predefined search strategies. 20 , 21 , 22

The format of hypotheses, especially the implications part, may vary widely across disciplines. Clinicians may limit their suggestions to the clinical manifestations of diseases, outcomes, and management strategies. Basic and laboratory scientists analysing genetic, molecular, and biochemical mechanisms may need to view beyond the frames of their narrow fields and predict social and population-based implications of the proposed ideas. 23

Advanced writing skills are essential for presenting an interesting theoretical article which appeals to the global readership. Merely listing opposing facts and ideas, without proper interpretation and analysis, may distract the experienced readers. The essence of a great hypothesis is a story behind the scientific facts and evidence-based data.

ETHICAL IMPLICATIONS

The authors of hypotheses substantiate their arguments by referring to and discerning rational points from published articles that might be overlooked by others. Their arguments may contradict the established theories and practices, and pose global ethical issues, particularly when more or less efficient medical technologies and public health interventions are devalued. The ethical issues may arise primarily because of the careless references to articles with low priorities, inadequate and apparently unethical methodologies, and concealed reporting of negative results. 24 , 25

Misinterpretation and misunderstanding of the published ideas and scientific hypotheses may complicate the issue further. For example, Alexander Fleming, whose innovative ideas of penicillin use to kill susceptible bacteria saved millions of lives, warned of the consequences of uncontrolled prescription of the drug. The issue of antibiotic resistance had emerged within the first ten years of penicillin use on a global scale due to the overprescription that affected the efficacy of antibiotic therapies, with undesirable consequences for millions. 26

The misunderstanding of the hygiene hypothesis that primarily aimed to shed light on the role of the microbiome in allergic and autoimmune diseases resulted in decline of public confidence in hygiene with dire societal implications, forcing some experts to abandon the original idea. 27 , 28 Although that hypothesis is unrelated to the issue of vaccinations, the public misunderstanding has resulted in decline of vaccinations at a time of upsurge of old and new infections.

A number of ethical issues are posed by the denial of the viral (human immunodeficiency viruses; HIV) hypothesis of acquired Immune deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) by Peter Duesberg, who overviewed the links between illicit recreational drugs and antiretroviral therapies with AIDS and refuted the etiological role of HIV. 29 That controversial hypothesis was rejected by several journals, but was eventually published without external peer review at Med Hypotheses in 2010. The publication itself raised concerns of the unconventional editorial policy of the journal, causing major perturbations and more scrutinized publishing policies by journals processing hypotheses.

WHERE TO PUBLISH HYPOTHESES

Although scientific authors are currently well informed and equipped with search tools to draft evidence-based hypotheses, there are still limited quality publication outlets calling for related articles. The journal editors may be hesitant to publish articles that do not adhere to any research reporting guidelines and open gates for harsh criticism of unconventional and untested ideas. Occasionally, the editors opting for open-access publishing and upgrading their ethics regulations launch a section to selectively publish scientific hypotheses attractive to the experienced readers. 30 However, the absence of approved standards for this article type, particularly no mandate for outlining potential ethical implications, may lead to publication of potentially harmful ideas in an attractive format.

A suggestion of simultaneously publishing multiple or alternative hypotheses to balance the reader views and feedback is a potential solution for the mainstream scholarly journals. 31 However, that option alone is hardly applicable to emerging journals with unconventional quality checks and peer review, accumulating papers with multiple rejections by established journals.

A large group of experts view hypotheses with improbable and controversial ideas publishable after formal editorial (in-house) checks to preserve the authors' genuine ideas and avoid conservative amendments imposed by external peer reviewers. 32 That approach may be acceptable for established publishers with large teams of experienced editors. However, the same approach can lead to dire consequences if employed by nonselective start-up, open-access journals processing all types of articles and primarily accepting those with charged publication fees. 33 In fact, pseudoscientific ideas arguing Newton's and Einstein's seminal works or those denying climate change that are hardly testable have already found their niche in substandard electronic journals with soft or nonexistent peer review. 34

CITATIONS AND SOCIAL MEDIA ATTENTION

The available preliminary evidence points to the attractiveness of hypothesis articles for readers, particularly those from research-intensive countries who actively download related documents. 35 However, citations of such articles are disproportionately low. Only a small proportion of top-downloaded hypotheses (13%) in the highly prestigious Med Hypotheses receive on average 5 citations per article within a two-year window. 36

With the exception of a few historic papers, the vast majority of hypotheses attract relatively small number of citations in a long term. 36 Plausible explanations are that these articles often contain a single or only a few citable points and that suggested research studies to test hypotheses are rarely conducted and reported, limiting chances of citing and crediting authors of genuine research ideas.

A snapshot analysis of citation activity of hypothesis articles may reveal interest of the global scientific community towards their implications across various disciplines and countries. As a prime example, Strachan's hygiene hypothesis, published in 1989, 10 is still attracting numerous citations on Scopus, the largest bibliographic database. As of August 28, 2019, the number of the linked citations in the database is 3,201. Of the citing articles, 160 are cited at least 160 times ( h -index of this research topic = 160). The first three citations are recorded in 1992 and followed by a rapid annual increase in citation activity and a peak of 212 in 2015 ( Fig. 1 ). The top 5 sources of the citations are Clin Exp Allergy (n = 136), J Allergy Clin Immunol (n = 119), Allergy (n = 81), Pediatr Allergy Immunol (n = 69), and PLOS One (n = 44). The top 5 citing authors are leading experts in pediatrics and allergology Erika von Mutius (Munich, Germany, number of publications with the index citation = 30), Erika Isolauri (Turku, Finland, n = 27), Patrick G Holt (Subiaco, Australia, n = 25), David P. Strachan (London, UK, n = 23), and Bengt Björksten (Stockholm, Sweden, n = 22). The U.S. is the leading country in terms of citation activity with 809 related documents, followed by the UK (n = 494), Germany (n = 314), Australia (n = 211), and the Netherlands (n = 177). The largest proportion of citing documents are articles (n = 1,726, 54%), followed by reviews (n = 950, 29.7%), and book chapters (n = 213, 6.7%). The main subject areas of the citing items are medicine (n = 2,581, 51.7%), immunology and microbiology (n = 1,179, 23.6%), and biochemistry, genetics and molecular biology (n = 415, 8.3%).

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Interestingly, a recent analysis of 111 publications related to Strachan's hygiene hypothesis, stating that the lack of exposure to infections in early life increases the risk of rhinitis, revealed a selection bias of 5,551 citations on Web of Science. 37 The articles supportive of the hypothesis were cited more than nonsupportive ones (odds ratio adjusted for study design, 2.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.6–3.1). A similar conclusion pointing to a citation bias distorting bibliometrics of hypotheses was reached by an earlier analysis of a citation network linked to the idea that β-amyloid, which is involved in the pathogenesis of Alzheimer disease, is produced by skeletal muscle of patients with inclusion body myositis. 38 The results of both studies are in line with the notion that ‘positive’ citations are more frequent in the field of biomedicine than ‘negative’ ones, and that citations to articles with proven hypotheses are too common. 39

Social media channels are playing an increasingly active role in the generation and evaluation of scientific hypotheses. In fact, publicly discussing research questions on platforms of news outlets, such as Reddit, may shape hypotheses on health-related issues of global importance, such as obesity. 40 Analyzing Twitter comments, researchers may reveal both potentially valuable ideas and unfounded claims that surround groundbreaking research ideas. 41 Social media activities, however, are unevenly distributed across different research topics, journals and countries, and these are not always objective professional reflections of the breakthroughs in science. 2 , 42

Scientific hypotheses are essential for progress in science and advances in healthcare. Innovative ideas should be based on a critical overview of related scientific facts and evidence-based data, often overlooked by others. To generate realistic hypothetical theories, the authors should comprehensively analyze the literature and suggest relevant and ethically sound design for future studies. They should also consider their hypotheses in the context of research and publication ethics norms acceptable for their target journals. The journal editors aiming to diversify their portfolio by maintaining and introducing hypotheses section are in a position to upgrade guidelines for related articles by pointing to general and specific analyses of the subject, preferred study designs to test hypotheses, and ethical implications. The latter is closely related to specifics of hypotheses. For example, editorial recommendations to outline benefits and risks of a new laboratory test or therapy may result in a more balanced article and minimize associated risks afterwards.

Not all scientific hypotheses have immediate positive effects. Some, if not most, are never tested in properly designed research studies and never cited in credible and indexed publication outlets. Hypotheses in specialized scientific fields, particularly those hardly understandable for nonexperts, lose their attractiveness for increasingly interdisciplinary audience. The authors' honest analysis of the benefits and limitations of their hypotheses and concerted efforts of all stakeholders in science communication to initiate public discussion on widely visible platforms and social media may reveal rational points and caveats of the new ideas.

Disclosure: The authors have no potential conflicts of interest to disclose.

Author Contributions:

Conceptualization: Gasparyan AY, Yessirkepov M, Kitas GD.
Methodology: Gasparyan AY, Mukanova U, Ayvazyan L.
Writing - original draft: Gasparyan AY, Ayvazyan L, Yessirkepov M.
Writing - review & editing: Gasparyan AY, Yessirkepov M, Mukanova U, Kitas GD.

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9.1: Introduction to Hypothesis Testing

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Basic Theory

Preliminaries.

As usual, our starting point is a random experiment with an underlying sample space and a probability measure \(\P\). In the basic statistical model, we have an observable random variable \(\bs{X}\) taking values in a set \(S\). In general, \(\bs{X}\) can have quite a complicated structure. For example, if the experiment is to sample \(n\) objects from a population and record various measurements of interest, then \[ \bs{X} = (X_1, X_2, \ldots, X_n) \] where \(X_i\) is the vector of measurements for the \(i\)th object. The most important special case occurs when \((X_1, X_2, \ldots, X_n)\) are independent and identically distributed. In this case, we have a random sample of size \(n\) from the common distribution.

The purpose of this section is to define and discuss the basic concepts of statistical hypothesis testing . Collectively, these concepts are sometimes referred to as the Neyman-Pearson framework, in honor of Jerzy Neyman and Egon Pearson, who first formalized them.

A statistical hypothesis is a statement about the distribution of \(\bs{X}\). Equivalently, a statistical hypothesis specifies a set of possible distributions of \(\bs{X}\): the set of distributions for which the statement is true. A hypothesis that specifies a single distribution for \(\bs{X}\) is called simple ; a hypothesis that specifies more than one distribution for \(\bs{X}\) is called composite .

In hypothesis testing , the goal is to see if there is sufficient statistical evidence to reject a presumed null hypothesis in favor of a conjectured alternative hypothesis . The null hypothesis is usually denoted \(H_0\) while the alternative hypothesis is usually denoted \(H_1\).

An hypothesis test is a statistical decision ; the conclusion will either be to reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative, or to fail to reject the null hypothesis. The decision that we make must, of course, be based on the observed value \(\bs{x}\) of the data vector \(\bs{X}\). Thus, we will find an appropriate subset \(R\) of the sample space \(S\) and reject \(H_0\) if and only if \(\bs{x} \in R\). The set \(R\) is known as the rejection region or the critical region . Note the asymmetry between the null and alternative hypotheses. This asymmetry is due to the fact that we assume the null hypothesis, in a sense, and then see if there is sufficient evidence in \(\bs{x}\) to overturn this assumption in favor of the alternative.

An hypothesis test is a statistical analogy to proof by contradiction, in a sense. Suppose for a moment that \(H_1\) is a statement in a mathematical theory and that \(H_0\) is its negation. One way that we can prove \(H_1\) is to assume \(H_0\) and work our way logically to a contradiction. In an hypothesis test, we don't prove anything of course, but there are similarities. We assume \(H_0\) and then see if the data \(\bs{x}\) are sufficiently at odds with that assumption that we feel justified in rejecting \(H_0\) in favor of \(H_1\).

Often, the critical region is defined in terms of a statistic \(w(\bs{X})\), known as a test statistic , where \(w\) is a function from \(S\) into another set \(T\). We find an appropriate rejection region \(R_T \subseteq T\) and reject \(H_0\) when the observed value \(w(\bs{x}) \in R_T\). Thus, the rejection region in \(S\) is then \(R = w^{-1}(R_T) = \left\{\bs{x} \in S: w(\bs{x}) \in R_T\right\}\). As usual, the use of a statistic often allows significant data reduction when the dimension of the test statistic is much smaller than the dimension of the data vector.

The ultimate decision may be correct or may be in error. There are two types of errors, depending on which of the hypotheses is actually true.

Types of errors:

A type 1 error is rejecting the null hypothesis \(H_0\) when \(H_0\) is true.
A type 2 error is failing to reject the null hypothesis \(H_0\) when the alternative hypothesis \(H_1\) is true.

Similarly, there are two ways to make a correct decision: we could reject \(H_0\) when \(H_1\) is true or we could fail to reject \(H_0\) when \(H_0\) is true. The possibilities are summarized in the following table:

Of course, when we observe \(\bs{X} = \bs{x}\) and make our decision, either we will have made the correct decision or we will have committed an error, and usually we will never know which of these events has occurred. Prior to gathering the data, however, we can consider the probabilities of the various errors.

If \(H_0\) is true (that is, the distribution of \(\bs{X}\) is specified by \(H_0\)), then \(\P(\bs{X} \in R)\) is the probability of a type 1 error for this distribution. If \(H_0\) is composite, then \(H_0\) specifies a variety of different distributions for \(\bs{X}\) and thus there is a set of type 1 error probabilities.

The maximum probability of a type 1 error, over the set of distributions specified by \( H_0 \), is the significance level of the test or the size of the critical region.

The significance level is often denoted by \(\alpha\). Usually, the rejection region is constructed so that the significance level is a prescribed, small value (typically 0.1, 0.05, 0.01).

If \(H_1\) is true (that is, the distribution of \(\bs{X}\) is specified by \(H_1\)), then \(\P(\bs{X} \notin R)\) is the probability of a type 2 error for this distribution. Again, if \(H_1\) is composite then \(H_1\) specifies a variety of different distributions for \(\bs{X}\), and thus there will be a set of type 2 error probabilities. Generally, there is a tradeoff between the type 1 and type 2 error probabilities. If we reduce the probability of a type 1 error, by making the rejection region \(R\) smaller, we necessarily increase the probability of a type 2 error because the complementary region \(S \setminus R\) is larger.

The extreme cases can give us some insight. First consider the decision rule in which we never reject \(H_0\), regardless of the evidence \(\bs{x}\). This corresponds to the rejection region \(R = \emptyset\). A type 1 error is impossible, so the significance level is 0. On the other hand, the probability of a type 2 error is 1 for any distribution defined by \(H_1\). At the other extreme, consider the decision rule in which we always rejects \(H_0\) regardless of the evidence \(\bs{x}\). This corresponds to the rejection region \(R = S\). A type 2 error is impossible, but now the probability of a type 1 error is 1 for any distribution defined by \(H_0\). In between these two worthless tests are meaningful tests that take the evidence \(\bs{x}\) into account.

If \(H_1\) is true, so that the distribution of \(\bs{X}\) is specified by \(H_1\), then \(\P(\bs{X} \in R)\), the probability of rejecting \(H_0\) is the power of the test for that distribution.

Thus the power of the test for a distribution specified by \( H_1 \) is the probability of making the correct decision.

Suppose that we have two tests, corresponding to rejection regions \(R_1\) and \(R_2\), respectively, each having significance level \(\alpha\). The test with region \(R_1\) is uniformly more powerful than the test with region \(R_2\) if \[ \P(\bs{X} \in R_1) \ge \P(\bs{X} \in R_2) \text{ for every distribution of } \bs{X} \text{ specified by } H_1 \]

Naturally, in this case, we would prefer the first test. Often, however, two tests will not be uniformly ordered; one test will be more powerful for some distributions specified by \(H_1\) while the other test will be more powerful for other distributions specified by \(H_1\).

If a test has significance level \(\alpha\) and is uniformly more powerful than any other test with significance level \(\alpha\), then the test is said to be a uniformly most powerful test at level \(\alpha\).

Clearly a uniformly most powerful test is the best we can do.

\(P\)-value

In most cases, we have a general procedure that allows us to construct a test (that is, a rejection region \(R_\alpha\)) for any given significance level \(\alpha \in (0, 1)\). Typically, \(R_\alpha\) decreases (in the subset sense) as \(\alpha\) decreases.

The \(P\)-value of the observed value \(\bs{x}\) of \(\bs{X}\), denoted \(P(\bs{x})\), is defined to be the smallest \(\alpha\) for which \(\bs{x} \in R_\alpha\); that is, the smallest significance level for which \(H_0\) is rejected, given \(\bs{X} = \bs{x}\).

Knowing \(P(\bs{x})\) allows us to test \(H_0\) at any significance level for the given data \(\bs{x}\): If \(P(\bs{x}) \le \alpha\) then we would reject \(H_0\) at significance level \(\alpha\); if \(P(\bs{x}) \gt \alpha\) then we fail to reject \(H_0\) at significance level \(\alpha\). Note that \(P(\bs{X})\) is a statistic . Informally, \(P(\bs{x})\) can often be thought of as the probability of an outcome as or more extreme than the observed value \(\bs{x}\), where extreme is interpreted relative to the null hypothesis \(H_0\).

Analogy with Justice Systems

There is a helpful analogy between statistical hypothesis testing and the criminal justice system in the US and various other countries. Consider a person charged with a crime. The presumed null hypothesis is that the person is innocent of the crime; the conjectured alternative hypothesis is that the person is guilty of the crime. The test of the hypotheses is a trial with evidence presented by both sides playing the role of the data. After considering the evidence, the jury delivers the decision as either not guilty or guilty . Note that innocent is not a possible verdict of the jury, because it is not the point of the trial to prove the person innocent. Rather, the point of the trial is to see whether there is sufficient evidence to overturn the null hypothesis that the person is innocent in favor of the alternative hypothesis of that the person is guilty. A type 1 error is convicting a person who is innocent; a type 2 error is acquitting a person who is guilty. Generally, a type 1 error is considered the more serious of the two possible errors, so in an attempt to hold the chance of a type 1 error to a very low level, the standard for conviction in serious criminal cases is beyond a reasonable doubt .

Tests of an Unknown Parameter

Hypothesis testing is a very general concept, but an important special class occurs when the distribution of the data variable \(\bs{X}\) depends on a parameter \(\theta\) taking values in a parameter space \(\Theta\). The parameter may be vector-valued, so that \(\bs{\theta} = (\theta_1, \theta_2, \ldots, \theta_n)\) and \(\Theta \subseteq \R^k\) for some \(k \in \N_+\). The hypotheses generally take the form \[ H_0: \theta \in \Theta_0 \text{ versus } H_1: \theta \notin \Theta_0 \] where \(\Theta_0\) is a prescribed subset of the parameter space \(\Theta\). In this setting, the probabilities of making an error or a correct decision depend on the true value of \(\theta\). If \(R\) is the rejection region, then the power function \( Q \) is given by \[ Q(\theta) = \P_\theta(\bs{X} \in R), \quad \theta \in \Theta \] The power function gives a lot of information about the test.

The power function satisfies the following properties:

\(Q(\theta)\) is the probability of a type 1 error when \(\theta \in \Theta_0\).
\(\max\left\{Q(\theta): \theta \in \Theta_0\right\}\) is the significance level of the test.
\(1 - Q(\theta)\) is the probability of a type 2 error when \(\theta \notin \Theta_0\).
\(Q(\theta)\) is the power of the test when \(\theta \notin \Theta_0\).

If we have two tests, we can compare them by means of their power functions.

Suppose that we have two tests, corresponding to rejection regions \(R_1\) and \(R_2\), respectively, each having significance level \(\alpha\). The test with rejection region \(R_1\) is uniformly more powerful than the test with rejection region \(R_2\) if \( Q_1(\theta) \ge Q_2(\theta)\) for all \( \theta \notin \Theta_0 \).

Most hypothesis tests of an unknown real parameter \(\theta\) fall into three special cases:

Suppose that \( \theta \) is a real parameter and \( \theta_0 \in \Theta \) a specified value. The tests below are respectively the two-sided test , the left-tailed test , and the right-tailed test .

\(H_0: \theta = \theta_0\) versus \(H_1: \theta \ne \theta_0\)
\(H_0: \theta \ge \theta_0\) versus \(H_1: \theta \lt \theta_0\)
\(H_0: \theta \le \theta_0\) versus \(H_1: \theta \gt \theta_0\)

Thus the tests are named after the conjectured alternative. Of course, there may be other unknown parameters besides \(\theta\) (known as nuisance parameters ).

Equivalence Between Hypothesis Test and Confidence Sets

There is an equivalence between hypothesis tests and confidence sets for a parameter \(\theta\).

Suppose that \(C(\bs{x})\) is a \(1 - \alpha\) level confidence set for \(\theta\). The following test has significance level \(\alpha\) for the hypothesis \( H_0: \theta = \theta_0 \) versus \( H_1: \theta \ne \theta_0 \): Reject \(H_0\) if and only if \(\theta_0 \notin C(\bs{x})\)

By definition, \(\P[\theta \in C(\bs{X})] = 1 - \alpha\). Hence if \(H_0\) is true so that \(\theta = \theta_0\), then the probability of a type 1 error is \(P[\theta \notin C(\bs{X})] = \alpha\).

Equivalently, we fail to reject \(H_0\) at significance level \(\alpha\) if and only if \(\theta_0\) is in the corresponding \(1 - \alpha\) level confidence set. In particular, this equivalence applies to interval estimates of a real parameter \(\theta\) and the common tests for \(\theta\) given above .

In each case below, the confidence interval has confidence level \(1 - \alpha\) and the test has significance level \(\alpha\).

Suppose that \(\left[L(\bs{X}, U(\bs{X})\right]\) is a two-sided confidence interval for \(\theta\). Reject \(H_0: \theta = \theta_0\) versus \(H_1: \theta \ne \theta_0\) if and only if \(\theta_0 \lt L(\bs{X})\) or \(\theta_0 \gt U(\bs{X})\).
Suppose that \(L(\bs{X})\) is a confidence lower bound for \(\theta\). Reject \(H_0: \theta \le \theta_0\) versus \(H_1: \theta \gt \theta_0\) if and only if \(\theta_0 \lt L(\bs{X})\).
Suppose that \(U(\bs{X})\) is a confidence upper bound for \(\theta\). Reject \(H_0: \theta \ge \theta_0\) versus \(H_1: \theta \lt \theta_0\) if and only if \(\theta_0 \gt U(\bs{X})\).

Pivot Variables and Test Statistics

Recall that confidence sets of an unknown parameter \(\theta\) are often constructed through a pivot variable , that is, a random variable \(W(\bs{X}, \theta)\) that depends on the data vector \(\bs{X}\) and the parameter \(\theta\), but whose distribution does not depend on \(\theta\) and is known. In this case, a natural test statistic for the basic tests given above is \(W(\bs{X}, \theta_0)\).

Farming-Language Dispersals: A Worldwide Survey

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Paul Heggarty 2 &
David Beresford-Jones 3

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Introduction

The farming/language dispersals hypothesis, most simply put, proposes that many of the world’s most significant language families – in both geographical range and speaker numbers – dispersed along with, and primarily thanks to, the spread of agriculture. The entry on “ Farming-Language Dispersals: Principles ” in this encyclopedia explores the range of issues and qualifications that attend this general hypothesis, to clarify those cases in which one might in principle expect that it would or would not hold true. Much necessarily hangs on the particular “real-world” contexts – cultural, chronological, and geographical – through which each of the world’s major language families dispersed. Given the great diversity in those variables in the human story worldwide, the hypothesis duly does not play out consistently from case to case, or in others simply does not apply at all. Such is what this contribution now aims to survey, across the globe.

The first main exposition of the...

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Schultz’s Thesis of Traditional Agriculture

In this article we will discuss about:- 1. Some Misconceptions about Traditional Agriculture 2. Meaning of Traditional Agriculture According to Schultz 3. Characteristics 4. Schultz’s Suggestions for Transforming Traditional Agriculture 5. The Process of Transformation 6. Importance of Acquired Skills in Transformation of Agriculture 7. Critical Reviews of Schultzian Thesis.

Some Misconceptions about Traditional Agriculture:

Before giving his definition of traditional agriculture, Schultz dispel some wrong impressions about what a tradition agriculture implies.

(a) Traditional agriculture has nothing to do with the traditions of a society. According to Schultz agriculture can become traditional in any country, irrespective of the customs and conventions which its people have generally practiced. For example, it is not necessary that only a conservative, superstitions and a whimsical society can have a traditional agriculture. Even a forward looking society can find its agriculture to be traditional in nature.

Schultz feels that most of the factors that influence production i.e. Thrift, attitude to work, industriousness etc. are not affected by the culture traits of a society. These are in-fact economic variable. People do not save for investment simply because the method of production does not give a high return. Again people do not work much because the return to labour is rather low. Accumulation of more capital or use of more labour are thus governed by economic factors and not by the cultural factor.

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(b) Traditional agriculture has nothing to do with the institution arrangement in a country. A country with any type of in situation arrangements can find its agriculture being traditional. For instance agriculture in a country can become traditional whether it has large farms or small farms though generally people feel that traditional agriculture is associated with small farm Japan’s agriculture is not traditional even if the farm size is very small.

Similarly, traditional agriculture can be found, both in countries with a high degree of owner cultivation or with a high degree of tenancy, For example, Holland is a country where tenant cultivation predominates, However, its agriculture is not traditional.

Schultz further points out that the technical attributes of the factors of production in an agriculture do not determine the character of agriculture in a country i.e., whether it, is traditional in character or not.

Generally it is felt that if the factors of production are highly productive, its agriculture can be called a modern agriculture and if the factors of production have low technical efficiency, it is called a traditional agriculture, Schultz docs not agree with this assertion.

For him, traditional agriculture has some economic feature and if these features appear in an agriculture even with technically efficient factors it will become traditional in character According to him under certain circumstances, even American Agriculture which at present, is considered to be the most advanced agriculture can become traditional.

Meaning of Traditional Agriculture According to Schultz:

According to Shultz traditional agricultural is all economic concept. It implies a short of an equilibrium: When agriculture of an country reaches such an equilibrium, it will become a traditional agriculture and according to Sehultz, as we have already pointed out, this equilibrium can be reached irrespective of the cultural attributes of the society, its institutional arrangements or the technical efficiency of its factors.

According to Schultz, the critical conditions underlying this type of equilibrium, either historically or in the future are as follow :

(1) The state of arts remains constant

(2) The state of preferences and motives for holding and acquiring sources of income remains constant and

(3) Both of these states remains constant long enough for marginal, preference and motives for acquiring agricultural factors as sources of income to arrive at an equilibrium with the marginal productivity of these sources viewed as an investment in permanent income streams and with net savings approaching zero.

The definition needs some elaboration. Schultz is of the opinion that when technology in agriculture remains unchanged for a long time and when people using various inputs under such a technology have fully known the pros and cons if the use of these inputs have therefore finally decided their preference for various inputs, a time may arrive when in general the marginal productivities of these inputs and their costs have become equal to each other, This is an equilibrium, In such a case, further investment in these inputs will stop. Level of these uses will no longer change.

Further savings (except to keep these inputs at the equilibrium level) was no longer made. This is a State when agriculture will become traditional in character. Agriculture will no longer be progressive, It will be stagnant and will remain so, so long as the art of cultivation and motives preference to hold various factors of production remain unchanged.

It may be noted that Schultz’s definition is unconventional in the sense that according to it, even a very advanced agriculture can become traditional. It is not like Mellor’s definition which considers only a backward and labour intensive agriculture using a crude from of capital, as traditional agriculture, Mellor’s definition is more Pragmatic and is historically sound,

Main Characteristics of Traditional Agriculture as Defined by Schultz:

(A) Allocative Efficiency in Traditional Agricultural:

It is generally felt that resources in a traditional agriculture are not optimally allocated. Heady had conducted a study on resource allocation for six class of formers in India and found that allocation of resources was not perfect. Schultz’s definition does not lead to such a conclusion. On the other hand, it leads one to conclude that resource allocation is perfect in a traditional agriculture.

The argument runs as follows. Art of cultivation remains unchanged (for agriculture to become traditional) and so are the preferences and motives to hold various factors of production, When year after year farmer, under such circumstances, get the same return (under normal condition), they are bound to adjust their investment in various factors in such a way limit the marginal productivity of each factor is finely balanced with its price and this balance will stay so long as the art of cultivation etc. remains unchanged. As Schultz pointed out. “There are comparatively few significant inefficiencies in the allocation of factors of production in traditional agriculture.”

Assumption for the State of Perfect Allocation of Resources:

Schultz made certain assumptions for the equilibrium to prevail in traditional agriculture.

These assumptions are as follows:

(1) These first assumption is about the nature of factors of production. The factors have been used for a long time without any change. If the factors have been changing in their nature, obviously, their returns too will be changing and consequently, long run equilibrium cannot be achieved. (In fact agriculture cannot be considered as traditional if the nature of factors of production goes on changing).

(2) No significant activity like construction of road or digging of a canal is taking place. Such activities will disturb the equilibrium temporarily.

(3) Events like war, partition or recruitment of labour in the army also disturb the equilibrium temporarily. These are the assumed to be absent.

(4) Relative prices of various factors as well as of agricultural products are assumed to be constant.

(5) As the state of arts is assumed to be unchanged, the change in the technology, taking place at any time is ruled out.

(6) There are no indivisibilities.

(7) There is a perfect knowledge about the returns to various factors.

The Poor Hot Efficient Hypothesis:

From the above implication about perfect allocation of resources, as deduced from the definition of traditional agriculture. Schultz moves on to the description of another hypothesis (based upon perfect allocation of resources) which, by now has become quite well known. It is known as the poor but efficient hypothesis. Schultz implies that people in a traditional agriculture are no doubt efficient so far as the allocation of resource is concerned but still they are poor.

According to him, optimum allocation of resources fails to ensure a high income level for the farmers. This is because the returns form the resources themselves are quite low or using Schultz’s terminology we can say that the cost of income stream is rather high. This is the reason, as we shall see later, why Schultz suggests changes in the nature of factors of production in order to transform traditional agriculture.

Implication of the Poor but Efficient Hypothesis:

From the fact that the allocation of resources is perfect in traditional agriculture. Schultz deduced some important conclusions.

These are as follows:

(a) There is no possibility of increasing agriculture production by reallocating the existing resources. The farmers have perfect knowledge about the returns from these resources and are already getting the maximum output from their use. As there is no wasteful utilisation of these resources no additional output can be produced if these resources arc reallocated.

(b) No factor is unemployed in traditional agriculture. The poor but efficient hypothesis also leads to the conclusion that no resources whether capital or labour, are unemployed involuntary, if any factor, say a labourer is without a job he is so only voluntary. If such a factor demanded employment, it can offer itself in the market. The price of the factor will come down to such an extent that it will be finely absorbed in the production process.

(c) The hypothesis leads to the conclusion that even in traditional agriculture, there is no dearth of efficient entrepreneurs.

(d) The hypothesis also implies that farmers in the traditional agriculture, too are quite responsive to price changes. This is because perfect allocation of resources is not possible unless the producer are too sensitive to price changes. This conclusion is very important because generally it is held that farmers in traditional agriculture are totally insulated from the effects of changes in market forces.

Tests of the Hypothesis:

Schultz does not stop only at deducing the conclusion about resource allocation from his definition. He relied upon studies conducted by two social anthropologist to prove his point. The first study was that made by Soltax. He had made a study of a Guatemalan community and had found that resource allocation was perfect in such a community. The other study was by David Hooper who found that resource allocution was perfect in a village (Senapur) in India.

At the same time, Schultz rejected the conclusion arrived at by Heady who studied the resource allocation by sin classes of Indian farmers and had concluded that there were imperfections in the resource allocation in these villages. Schultz rejected Heady’s conclusions with the plea that data used by him was unreliable. It may be noted here that Guatemalan and Indian agriculture are considered traditional by Schultz.

Critical Review of Schultz Views about Perfect Allocation of Resources in Traditional Agriculture:

No doubt, Schultz had found supporters for his conclusion about resources allocation in traditional agriculture. John Lossin Buck and Baner and Yamey, for example, have supported his conclusions. Still, his views have not been accepted by many.

The methodology used by David Hopper on whose conclusions Schultz relies has been criticised by Dunn and Nowshirwani. Lip on questions the assumption of profit maximisation for studying resource allocation. On the empirical level, many economists like Desai, Kahlon, Johl and Soni have found that misallocation, of resources exists in Indian agriculture.

As a matter of fact. Schultz’s conclusions are not based upon extensive studies. Decision-making for allocation of resources is a complicated process and it influenced by a multitude of factors. It is very difficult to find a situation in which these factor allow the resource to be used in an optimum manner. Generally resources allocation is imperfect whether agriculture is traditional or nontraditional in character.

(B) The Doctrine of Zero Value Labour:

Yet another conclusion can be derived form the definition of traditional agriculture as given by Schultz. It is that in a traditional agriculture, there is no disguised unemployment or what Schultz calls as zero value labour. We have already pointed out that in traditional agriculture, as per Schultz’s views, no factor of production is involuntarily unemployed.

Schultz specifically uses this implication of Poor but efficient hypothesis to emphasis that there is no unit of labour that is unemployed in traditional agriculture either openly or in a disguised manner.

A labour is disguised unemployed when its marginal productivity is zero. As Schultz takes the plea that every worker, who is willing to work gets wages for his work, his marginal productivity can never be equal to zero or there is no zero value labour in traditional agriculture.

This is a very important conclusion because economists like Nurkse have pointed out that there is disguised unemployment in the agriculture sector and that the disguisedly unemployed labour can be used for capital formation in under developed countries. Schultz tries to negate this assumption of Nurkse and other economists.

In the first instance he describes the reasons which have led some economists to believe that disguised unemployment exists in a traditional agriculture. He is of the view that basically experts from the western countries have unnecessarily created this bogey of disguised unemployment.

The visitors from the West found farmers wasting their time and this led them to profound the concept of disguised unemployment in agriculture. Another group put forth the view that during Great Depression while there was a fall in demand, and there was unemployment. They opined that there should be unemployment everywhere.

As in predominantly agricultural economies no such open unemployment appeared. They declared that unemployment must be disguised. Schultz however points out that the interpretation is wrong. No farms were closed down while factories in the west stopped working.

As farms continued to work, question of unemployment on these farms did not arise. Further, the experts of the western countries had found that there was a surplus labour in the agricultural sector in their own countries which needed to be transferred to the industrial sector.

They presumed that surplus labour was bound to exist even in backward countries and thus they, concluded about the existence of disguised unemployment in such countries (It may be noted here that need for transfer of labour from the agricultural sector to the industrial sector in developed countries is not in fact due to disguised unemployment. It is because of the fact per capita, income of the labour in the agricultural sector is less than the per capita income of the labour in the industrial sector.)

So, Schultz in first instance, points out that due to a wrong interpretation of facts, it came to be held that there is disguised unemployment in traditional agriculture. Schultz also refers to a theoretical argument advanced in favour of the existence of disguised unemployment in agriculture.

It is that factors of production in agriculture have a limited technical substitutability and they become complementary after a point. In such a situation if one factor i.e. capital is in short supply, the other factor i.e. labour cannot be employed.

This argument was advanced by Eckaus. Schultz does not agree with this contention and asserts that even when capital is limited in supply, additional labour always brings forth a positive (above zero) returns. He quote Viner in support of his view.

After trying to prove that assertions about the existence of disguised unemployment in traditional agriculture are based upon some wrong interpretation of facts and also on wrong theoretical grounds, he goes on to prove that there is no disguisedly unemployed labour in traditional agriculture and that each labourer has a positive marginal productivity (of course, it may not be very high.) He gives two examples of construction work in South American countries when labour was withdrawn from the agricultural sector for this purpose. In both these cases, agricultural production fell down. This according to Schultz, showed that marginal productivity of labour was not zero.

Schultz also gives an example from India to prove his point. In India, an epidemic called Influenza appeared during 1917-19 and it wiped out about 1/6 of the total population of the country. In 1919, according to Schultz agricultural production fell. This again showed, according to him, that labour makes a positive contribution to agriculture production.

Critical Review of Schultz’s Views about Disguised Unemployment in Traditional Agriculture:

Schultz’s view about no zero value labour in traditional agriculture have been challenged both on theoretical as well as empirical grounds. On the empirical plan, studies by Mazumdar, & Desai, by Mellor and Stevon and by Rosenstein Rodan have shown that disguised unemployment exists in agriculture in the underdeveloped countries.

Schultz’s conclusions about influenza and its effects on agricultural production have been challenged. Sen has, for example, questioned the deletion of some states form being considered by Schultz to show a fall in agricultural production. He has further questioned the logic of using area under cultivation as an index for agricultural production.

He has further pointed out that natural calamities like Influenza affect farms of all types i.e. those using hired labour and those using only, family labour. When hired workers die of an epidemic, production of farms on which disguised unemployment exists.

So Sen feels that fall in production due to influenza should not be taken as a proof that disguised unemployment does not exist in traditional agriculture. In fact, influenza was such a terrible disease that it unsettled the whole nation for quite sometimes and there was every possibility that even labourers with positive marginal productivity failed to attend to the agricultural operations. Fall in production, due to influenza was thus a natural outcome.

The fact that Influenza is not a good example to prove that disguised unemployment does not exist in traditional agriculture has again been brought to light by S. Mehra. According to her after the epidemic subsided in 1919, the agricultural production increased in the first half of the year as compared with the base year of 1917 while it was less in the 2nd half of 1919. If fall in production was due to loss of labour, it should have been so in the first half and not in the 2nd half of 1919. According to her, fall in production was due to some other causes.

Bhagwati and Chakravarti put forth another argument to show that agricultural production can fall even when, there is disguised unemployment, when some labour leaves the agricultural sector. They refer to a situation where both types of farms i.e those using hired labour and those using family labour exist side by side. Disguised unemployment exists on family farms only.

Suppose from a farm with disguised unemployment, a family member leaves. Agricultural production will not suffer. However, share of each of the remaining in member will increase. This rise in the share will also prompt those members of such a family who are already working as hired labourer on some other farms to demand higher wages. Demand for higher wages on farms using hired labour will mean less employment on farms using such labour and therefore there will be a fall in production.

Thus our overall conclusion is that disguised unemployment exists in traditional agriculture that Schultz is not correct in holding the contrary view.

Schultz’s Suggestions for Transforming Traditional Agriculture:

There are three ways of increasing production. These are to:

(1) Make use of un-utilised resources

(2) Optimally reallocate the resources so as to take the production on to the production frontier and

(3) Change the nature of factors namely replace all or some of the old factor by new ones with higher output-input ratios.

Intentionally or otherwise, Schultz’s ruled out the adoption of first two methods meant for increasing agricultural production. For instance, by his very definition of traditional agriculture, he has concluded that there is no factor of production lying unused in traditional agriculture. Land and labour and other capital assets are fully utilized in traditional agriculture.

In the same way he has concluded that resources in agriculture are always perfectly allocated. There is no misallocation of resources and therefore there is no possibility to increase production in a traditional agriculture, by further improving the resource allocation.

So Schultz is left with only one way to increase production in a traditional agriculture i.e. by changing the nature of the factors of production. Before we discuss in detail. Schultz’s scheme of adoption of new factors of production it is necessary to discuss the approach to be followed for such an adoption.

Market Approach V/S Command Approach:

By market approach, Schultz, implies that no factor of production should be imposed on the farmers. The farmers should be left free to decide whether to use a particular factor of production or not. Let them see for themselves the profitability of a given factor and decide about its adoption.

The adoption in other words should be guided by the market forces. The only responsibility of the government in this case should be to ensure that there is an easy availability of the factor of production and there is a good publicity about it and that necessary skills for the use of new inputs are properly developed. By command approach, Schultz means system on which the government supplies a new factor production to the farmers and that direct them to use it irrespective of its profitability.

Schultz prefers market approach to command approach, He feels that if a factor of production is voluntarily adopted by the farmer its adoption will be wide spread and with full enthusiasm.

On the other hand forced adoption not only, in many cases, ignores the problems faced by the farmers at the local level, but also at times, spoils the skills and enthusiasm of the farmer, Schultz feels that the situation in a command approach can be compared to an absentee landlordism where the land lord knows nothing about the problems and difficulties of the actual cultivators but insists upon a good harvest.

The Process of Transformation:

In a market approach, ultimately the supply and demand for the factors of production will govern the actual use. So Schultz discusses in detail the factors that influence the supply and demand for such factors. We may in the first instance discuss the problems faced in the supply of new factors and the suggestion that Schultz, makes to overcome these problems.

A. Supply of New Factors:

According to Schultz three important steps are involved in the supply of new factors.

(1) Research and Development of new factors.

(2) Distribution of inputs to the cultivators and

(3) Extension of new knowledge.

These steps are described in the paragraphs that follow:

(1) Research and Development of New Factors by Suppliers:

Science and Technology, according to Schultz, play a very important role in the transformation of traditional agriculture. As the art of cultivation in a traditional agriculture has been static for long time it may not be possible to develop technologically superior factors of production from within the country.

So what he suggests is that in the first instance, these factors may be imported from some foreign country and then this factor should be subjected to further scientific analysis so that it is finally adapted to the physical environments of the importing country. This will be least costly method of developing a new factor of production.

With regard to the provision of scientific facilities for research, development and adaptation of a new factor of production Schultz raises an important question. It is as to who should provide facilities for such a job: The Government or the Private persons?

According ta Schultz, a private person will hesitate to undertake this research work not only because it is costly but also because its results may appear after a long time and same times may even be totally disappointing.

Secondly, the benefits of a successful research are not gaing to accurue solely to the private person. Other members of the community will also benefit from this research. This may make the private person hesitate to take up the research wark. On the other hand, the concept of benefit or profit is totally different for the government. It is rather very broad when compared with that of a private individual. The Govt. feels benefitted if any member of the society benefits from its actions.

So, Schultz feels that so far as research and development of factors of production suitable for the agriculture of a country are concerned. It should invariably be undertaken by the Govt. of the country concerned or by some non-profit making institution in the country.

(2) The Distribution of New Inputs:

After the new inputs have been developed and technology for their mass scale production has been perfected a question arises: Who should produce and distribute these inputs? Schultz himself answers this question. In the beginning when the new inputs are still untested by the farmers, no private person will take the risk of producing and distributing these inputs. There is a cost of entry into the market and this may be quite high in the beginning.

This cost consists of the following:

(a) the cost of adaptation, though basically, the input has been adapted to the general condition of the country in the state owned laboratories or in the laboratories run by the non-profit making institution, still some modification in the nature of the inputs is required even at the local level. This will involve some expenditure,

(b) cost of providing information to the users about the availability as well as about the nature of the input. In a non-traditional agriculture where the level of literacy is generally high the print media like technical journal etc. can be used to inform the farmers about the new inputs.

However, the print media cannot be very useful in an illiterate society. Here distributors will have to contact the farmers personally or in groups which may be beyond their capacity,

(c) Other costs of entry e.g. opposition of the vested interest. People so far supplying the traditional input are vehemently oppose to the introduction of new inputs. Some expenses will have to be incurred to overcome their opposition.

Due to these difficulties faced by the private agencies in the beginning. Schultz, suggested that initially the job of production and distribution of new inputs should be carried on either by the Government agencies like Food Foundation etc. After sometime when the demand for the new inputs has been generated and has stabilized, the task of distribute n of new inputs can be passed on the private agencies,

(d) Development of extension services. Availability of new input is not sufficient. Necessary skills for its use are also to be developed. This may be done through well-developed extension services. Extension services are essential even when new agricultural practices are to be introduced.

Here Schultz again feels that the cost of extension services is rather high and therefore, such services should be provided by the Government:

Thus, on the whole, Schultz suggests that so far as the supply of new inputs are concerned the Govt. should take over the job of research and development of the new inputs, of their production and distribution and of extension education with regard to them. However, at a later stage the government can offer to the private agencies, the task of production and distribution of new inputs.

B. Demand for New Factors:

Supply of new factors is of no use if the farmers do not demand them. Schultz, therefore analyses the factors which should be kept in view while trying to ensure that a demand is generated for the inputs.

In the first instance, Schultz tries to dispel a few misconceptions about the attitude of the farmers in a traditional agriculture towards the new, inputs. He points out that it is wrong to assume that a farmer in traditional agriculture is conservative and non-progressive and as such will refuse to adopt the new inputs.

According to him, whether he is a farmer in traditional agriculture or a non-traditional one, he always goes by the economic motive. In this case, the economic motive is governed by profitability of the new inputs over a long period. If the new inputs profitable the farmer will accept it and substitute it for an old input.

Profitability of a factor, according to Schuitz depends upon two factor. These are (a) the prospective yield and (b) the supply price of the new input. We describe these two factors in the paragraphs that follow.

(a) The Prospective Yield:

Schultz uses this concept to bring the future yield of the input into the picture. The inputs are totally new and how their yield behaves in the future is uncertain. The farmers are ignorant about the fluctuations in its future yield, but somehow or other this factor is to be considered by the farmers while deciding to accept the new input. Schultz feels that if the present yield of the input is extremely high farmers are likely to accept the input even if they discount the future yield at a high rate.

(b) Supply Price of the New Input :

For estimating the profitability of the new inputs, the farmers has to consider other factor also. It is the supply price of the new input. The farmer will discount the yield from the inputs over its life span and then compare it with its supply price.

If discounted value of the prospective yield is more than its supply price the farmers will consider it profitable to accept the input. So Schultz suggests that whereas the prospective yield from the input should be quite high its supply price should be quite low.

He in-fact suggests that in the initial stages, it may be desirable to subsidise the new inputs so that they appear profitable. In the same vein, he suggests that if the tenurial arrangements are good, acceptance of new-inputs will be easy.

For example, if a tenant shares the gross produce but bears will the costs himself, he will be more hesitant to accept the new input as compared with the situation when besides sharing the output He also share the costs on the same grounds he advocates peasant proprietorship as an arrangements conducive to transformation of traditional agriculture.

Importance of Acquired Skills in Transformation of Agriculture:

Supply of new inputs is essential for transformation of agriculture. However additional knowledge and skill is also needed to use them. True, in some cases, special training may not be needed to use these inputs. However, if the new inputs are technically, far superior to the old input imparting of special knowledge to the farmers becomes very important.

Schultz considers three methods which can be used for imparting such a knowledge. These are (1) trial and error method (2) on the job training through demonstration, short term courses etc. and (3) Schooling, Schultz out of these three methods commends the third method i.e. schooling, the maximum.

According to him, the other two methods are slow and limited in effects. He feels that general education at the school level will equip the farmers with capabilities to handle all types of inputs involving technical intricacies. He considers this as an investment in human capital and quotes the examples of Israel and Japan to prove that schooling has contributed a lot to the Increase in agriculture production in these countries.

Critical Reviews of Schultzian Thesis:

We have already critically examined the definition of traditional agriculture as given by Schultz and also its implications namely the poor but efficient hypothesis (perfect allocation of resources) and the non-existence of disguised unemployment in a traditional agriculture.

Some of his other assertions also suffer from infirmities. For example, his too much emphasis on market approach is not correct. In a situation of shortages, too much emphasis on freedom to buy and sell can lead to an allocation of resources which may not be optimum from the social point of view.

Social interests are likely to be sacrificed in favour of private interests if a total market approach is followed. Further his suggestion -that only use of modern inputs will transform the traditional agriculture is inaccurate. Traditional inputs like conservation of soil, irrigation etc. cannot be discarded in any agricultural economy.

Further, Schultz has totally ignored the differences in factor endowment of different poor economies. These differences do effect the pace at which the new inputs can be used.

Difference in the availability of infrastructure in administrative efficiency in the degree of commercialisation, in the extent of monetisation etc. do matter so far as the pace of adoption of new inputs is concerned. However, despite these infirmities, one must accept his basic suggestion that transformation of traditional agriculture cannot take place unless new production with improved output-input ratios are adopted.

8 Main Features of Indian Agriculture – Explained!
Development of Agriculture: 3 Phases
Stages of Agriculture Development
Inter Dependence of Agriculture and Industry

The importance of agriculture from the perspective of neoevolutionary theory

Rural sociology • vol/iss. 37 • published in 1972 • pages: 167-188 • cite, by sheils, howard dean.

". . . the efficacy of agricultural technology is directly related to a society's evolutionary level" (179)

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