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Introduction

• Published: 04 June 2020
• Volume 33 , pages 1–2, ( 2020 )

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• Magnus Ericsson 2  

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The editors are delighted to present to you this compilation of papers in honour of John Tilton’s 80th birthday and his many intellectual contributions. John set out on his professional path with his Ph.D. thesis on international trade patterns of nonferrous metals in the 1960s at Yale University under the tutelage of Bela Balassa. After a hiatus of a few years, he returned to what would be his life’s work and profession—Mineral Economics. This return point was when he joined the Mineral Economics Program at Penn State as an Associate Professor in 1972 with a promotion to full in 1975. A joint research initiative, the Mineral Economics and Policy program, between Resources for the Future (RFF) and Penn State was started in the early 1980s with John as the driving force at Penn. During these years, his research included articles, book chapters, and conference proceedings that looked at cartels and competitiveness in metal industry, public policy and metal trade patterns, causes and effects of metal market instability, metal demand and substitution, metal demand forecasts, fear of shortages, the meaning or resources, and intensity of use. These themes set the stage for much of John’s later contributions. Of the 21 books and monographs he has authored, co-authored, or edited over the years, five of them were published during his employment at Penn State His latest book, Mineral Economics and Policy , co-authored with Juan Ignacio Guzmán, which had the same title as the RFF program, carried on his legacy and was published at the spry age of 77.

By the time he reached the Colorado School of Mines (CSM) in 1985 as the William J. Coulter Professor of Mineral Economics, his strong economic abilities, poised and polished communication skills, and extensive institutional knowledge of mineral markets had made him a leading scholar in the field of Mineral Economics. Shortly after arriving at CSM, he added another theme to his repertoire of research topics and expertise, resources, and development.

John served as Division Director from 1988 to 1998 and helped to build the distinctive Mineral Economics Program in stature. Of the four US Ph.D. degree granting programs in Mineral Economics when John came to CSM, three (Penn State, Arizona State, and West Virginia) have fallen by the wayside. Only CSM’s Mineral Economics Program, with Energy added to the title in 2007, marches on in John’s shadow.

Despite his administrative responsibilities, John continued supervising masters and Ph.D. theses for a prodigious number of graduate students and maintained an active regimen of academic publications and conference presentations. The effect of metals on the environment and sustainability became another prominent interest of his.

In 2005, John gave up his tenure and Coulter professorship at CSM and started spending part of his time as a professor at the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile. He taught part time for more than a decade and put his mark on their up and coming program in Mineral Economics. Graduate students at the School of Mines still had the benefit of taking his metals course once a year until the sad day he turned in his office key in 2015. All the while, he continued supervising students and maintaining an active research agenda.

John’s love of travel, his stature in the field of mineral economics, and the universal appeal of his work are witnessed by all his national and international activities. A number of his articles have been translated into Spanish. He has served on the editorial boards of a number of journals: Mineral Economics, the Journal of Energy and Natural Resources Law, Journal of Resource Management and Technology, and the Natural Resources Forum. He has been on advisory boards in Colorado, Australia, and Sweden, among others. He has been on numerous commissions and committees for the US National Research Council of the National Academy of Science. He has held visiting positions in a number of countries including France, Japan, and Switzerland.

Accolades he has garnished along the way include University Professor Emeritus from the Colorado School of Mines, University Fellow at Resources for the Future, Hayden Williams Fellow at the Western Australia School of Mines and Curtin University of Technology, Honorary Doctorate at Luleå University of Technology, President of the Mineral Economics and Management Society, the Distinguished Service Award from the Mineral Economics and Management Society, Senior Fulbright Scholar at the École Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris, and the Mineral Economics Award from the Society for Mining, Metallurgy, and Exploration.

As a further testament to our appreciation and John’s influence on the profession, a rich array of authors have contributed to this issue. They are authoritative, well-known academics, civil servants, and industry captains from countries where John has been active. Their contributions range from full length original articles representing John’s solid academic work to personal reflections illustrating John’s personality. We have also asked John to look back as an introduction to this special issue. The 22 articles are divided into 6 groups, which resonate with John’s research interests over the years all put into the setting of today’s burning issues:

Personal reflections

Critical metals

Fossil free future

China emerging dragon

Resource rich countries

Mineral policy

Golden, Colorado/Stockholm May 2020

Carol Dahl and Magnus Ericsson

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Luleå University of Technology, Luleå, Sweden

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Dahl, C., Ericsson, M. Introduction. Miner Econ 33 , 1–2 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13563-020-00229-0

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Mineral and Energy Economics

About the program.

Why Mineral and Energy Economics?

Graduate study in Mineral and Energy Economics at Mines offers a specialized program in applied economics that includes training in valuable quantitative methods. Our faculty are actively engaged in economic research applied to earth, energy and the environment. They have specific expertise in global climate policy, price forecasting, energy demand, utility regulation, asset valuation, critical minerals, environmental economics, renewable energy mandates, and international mineral markets. Our faculty and graduate students are unique in their focus on applied energy, mineral and environmental topics. This concentration of interest and expertise cannot be found in traditional economics programs. Students earn a distinctive degree that is highly marketable and positions them for important contributions.

Academic partner with:

MS in Mineral and Energy Economics

The MS degree in Mineral and Energy Economics is the department’s most popular program. In the first year, students are trained in the core skills necessary for graduate-level economic analysis of energy, mineral and environmental topics. In the second year, students, in consultation with their advisor, customize their studies by selecting a set of enriching electives. The program is typically completed in two years: 12 courses (36 credit hours) with a recommended 3 courses per semester.

Degree Requirements

Two options are available for the MS degree: non-thesis and thesis. The non-thesis optionrequires 36 credit hours of graduate-level course work including core and elective courses. The thesis option requires a total of 36 credit hours consisting of 24 credit hours of graduate-level core and electives courses in addition to 12 credit hours of Master’s-level thesis development. For both options two advances economics elective courses must be taken. Masters students are only admitted to a thesis-based program after one or two semesters of course work. To apply send a statement of intent to the program manager. The request will be reviewed by the admissions committee.

Non-thesis Option Course Work

• 15 credit hours of core courses (5 classes)
• 21 credit hours of electives (7 classes, 2 must be advanced economics classes)

Thesis Option Course Work

• 15 credit hours of core courses (6 classes)
• 12 credit hours master’s-level thesis development/research credits
• 9 credit hours of electives (2 classes must be advanced economics classes)

Additional Program Option

Reciprocity Agreement with the University of Denver in Law and Economics Program. Students enrolled in the M.S. Mineral Economics Program at Mines or the Juris Doctorate Program (JD) in Law from the University of Denver may under the reciprocal agreement complete 6 approved credits at either school by enrolling for the courses at both Registrar Offices. PhD and JD students may have the opportunity to double count up to 12 credit hours towards both programs; see your advisor for more information. Applicants must apply to each program separately. See Kathleen Martin to register.

Prerequisites

Prior to starting the program, students must complete the following, all with a grade of B or higher:

• A course in Principles of Microeconomics
• A course in Probability and Statistics
• One semester of college-level calculus.
• Students will only be allowed to enter the program in the spring under exceptional circumstances as approved by the program
• director. Contact Dr. Ian Lange if you desire a spring admission.

Core Courses (15 credits Thesis & Non-Thesis)

All MS and PhD students in Mineral and Energy Economics are required to take a set of core courses that provide basic tools for the more advanced and specialized courses in the program.

• EBGN 509 Mathematical Economics*
• EBGN 510 Natural Resource Economics
• EBGN 521 Microeconomics II
• EBGN 590 Econometrics
• EBGN Econometrics Elective**

**  A second econometrics course is required (available courses are EBGN594 or EBGN690)

Electives (21 credits Non-thesis or 6 credits Thes is)

Choose courses in consultation with your advisor. Some typical electives are listed below. You are free to mix across the lists, but your program of study must be approved by your advisor. Students should not assume that courses taken at Mines or other institutions will apply to their degree without consultation with their advisor. A minimum of two course must be advanced economics classes. Below is a list of classes that may be offered.

• EBGN 530 Energy Economics
• EBGN 535 Economics of Metal Industries & Markets
• EBGN 570 Environmental Economics
• EBGN 610 Advanced Resource Economics
• EBGN 611 Advanced Microeconomics
• EBGN 632 Primary Fuels
• EBGN 645 Computational Economics
• EBGN 690 Advanced Econometrics
• EBGN 594 Time-series Econometrics
• EBGN 655 Advanced Linear Programming
• EBGN 657 Advanced Integer Programming
• EBGN 504 Economic Eval. & Investment Decision Methods
• EBGN 540 Accounting and Finance
• EBGN 546 Investment and Portfolio Management
• EBGN 553 Project Management
• EBGN 555 Linear Programming
• EBGN 560 Decision Analysis
• EBGN 563 Management of Technology
• EBGN 572 International Business Strategy
• EBGN 575 Advanced Mining and Energy Valuation

PhD in Mineral and Energy Economics

Prior to starting the program, students must complete the following courses (normally as part of their undergraduate studies) with a grade of B or better:

• Principles of Microeconomics
• Probability and Statistics
• College-level Calculus
• Students will not be allowed to begin coursework until the prerequisites are satisfied.

PhD Course Work

• 15 credit hours of common core courses (5 classes)
• 3 credit hours of extended core courses
• 18 credit hours of electives, as approved by the student’s advisor and thesis committee (6 classes)
• For specific course work plans and suggested electives, review the PhD advising sheet .

PhD Research Requirement

• 36 hours of thesis credit

Additional Course Work Option

Reciprocity Agreement with the University of Denver in Law and Economics Program. Students enrolled in the M.S. Mineral Economics Program at Mines or the Juris Doctorate Program (JD) in Law from the University of Denver may under the reciprocal agreement complete 6 approved credits at either school by enrolling for the courses at both Registrar Offices. PhD and JD students may have the opportunity to double count up to 12 credit hours towards both programs; see your advisor for more information. Applicants must apply to each program separately. See Kathleen Martin to register.

Qualifying Examinations

Upon completion of the core course work, students must pass a series of qualifying written examinations to become a candidate for the PhD degree. The qualifying exams are offered at the end of the firs and second year of course work. After the first year of coursework the student will be tested to assess their mastery of microeconomics and quantitative methods (including econometrics). After completing the extended core in the second year students will be tested to assess their ability to perform independent research.

Research Presentation and Other Thesis-Related Requirements

Following a successful thesis proposal defense and prior to the final thesis defense, the student is required to present a completed research paper (or dissertation chapter) in a research seminar at Mines. The research presentation must be considered of a sufficient professional-level quality by at least three Mines faculty members in attendance. In addition to the mentioned requirements, the PhD student may, at the discretion of the committee, be required to complete assignments and/or examinations that are more directly related to the thesis topic.

Thesis Defense

The PhD degree culminates in a final oral defense of the student’s research thesis. Upon approval of the thesis by the student’s committee, the thesis is submitted to the Graduate School.

Guidelines for Appropriate Progress Toward the PhD Degree

The guidelines give expectations about what constitutes appropriate progress towards the PhD degree. They are meant to be helpful, identify specific milestones along the way, and officially monitor progress. Your progress towards a PhD degree will be reviewed annually by the division during the summer term. See the PhD Progress Form in the “Thesis Form” menu option to the right which identifies the necessary steps to obtain a finding of “satisfactory” progress.

Dual Degree: Energy Technology Economics and Management Ma + Mineral and Energy Economics

The Department of Economic and Business at Mines and the Institut Français du Petrole (IFP), in Paris, France, together offer an advanced collaborative international graduate degree program to meet the needs of industry and government. Our unique program trains the next generation of technical, analytical and managerial professionals vital to the future of the petroleum and energy industries.

These two world-class institutions offer a rigorous and challenging program in an international setting. The program gives a small elite group of students a solid economics foundation combined with quantitative business skills, the historical and institutional background, and the interpersonal and intercultural abilities in the fast-paced, global world of oil and gas.

Qualifications

Qualifications for the program include:

• The equivalent of a U.S. Bachelor’s degree with a strong academic background
• A keen interest in an international career in the public or private sector relating to petroleum and other energy industries
• A commitment to excellence and leadership
• For professionals working in industry, research or government organizations, both experience and academic background will be taken into consideration.

After studying in English for only 16 months (8 months at Mines and 8 months at IFP) the successful student of Energy Technology Economics and Management (ETEM) receives not one but two degrees:

• Masters of Science in Mineral and Energy Economics from Mines and
• Diplôme D’Ingénieur or Mastère Spécialisé from IFP

Who is Eligible?

Mines, and the Mineral and Energy Economics program in particular, is known worldwide for the quality of its students. The program has attracted students from more than 25 countries. Students admitted to the program are chosen for their:

• Strong intellect
• Course work
• Scores on either the GRE or the GMAT

In addition, students must demonstrate a strong interest in energy, minerals, public policy, and/or related environmental and technological issues. These interests will be reflected in the letter of interest and previous involvement in these areas. The division is also looking for strong leadership potential as shown by previous academic, personal, and employment successes. All students must have completed Calculus I, Introductory Probability and Statistics, and Principles of Microeconomics prior to entering the program.

Application Deadline

Important: Applications for admission to the dual degree program should be submitted for consideration by the deadlines  set by the Graduate Admissions Office to begin courses the following fall semester in August. We make our offers in April. Only seven students are selected for the program each year. We also select three alternate students. A deposit of $500 is due to secure your place in the program.

The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) allows students who are residents of 14 surrounding western states to enroll on a resident tuition basis. The Mineral and Energy Economics program is an approved WICHE program. For information on WICHE, visit  http://www.wiche.edu/ .

The Dual Degree program offered by the Department of Economics and Business (EB) requires students to take a total of 48 credit hours of graduate-level course work. Course work is split between Colorado School of Mines and the Institut Français du Petrole (IFP) with 24 credit hours in residence at Mines in Golden, CO and 24 credit hours in residence at IFP in Paris, France.

Mines Requirements for the Dual Degree Program

• 9 credit hours core courses (3 classes)
• 15 credit hours EB department electives (5 classes)

IFP Requirements for the Dual Degree Program*

• 5 courses taken during IFP Semester 1 – Spring (see IFP course list below)
• 8 courses taken during IFP Semester 2 – Summer (see IFP course list below)

*Sample IFP degree requirements.

Entering students must have:

• A bachelor’s degree
• Microeconomics

Mines Core Courses (9 credit hours)

Dual Degree students are required to take the following set of core courses at Mines that provide basic tools for the more advanced and specialized courses in the program.

**A econometrics elective is required (currently the available courses are EBGN594 or EBGN690)

Mines EB Department Electives (15 credit hours)

Choose 3 courses in addition to the EBGN Econometric Elective listed in Core Courses in consultation with your advisor. Some typical electives are listed below. You are free to mix across the lists, but your program of study must be approved by your advisor. Students should not assume that courses taken at Mines or other institutions will apply to their degree without consultation with their advisor. A minimum of two courses must be at the 600 level.

Applied Economics

• EBGN 512 Macroeconomics
• EBGN 594 Time-series Econometrics
• EBGN 698 Primary Fuels
• EBGN 698 Computational Economics

Quantitative Methods

• EBGN 698 Stochastic Programming

Operations, Management and Finance

IFP Courses (24 credit hours)

Dual Degree students are required to take these or similar courses at IFP in France:

IFP Semester 1 (Spring)

• PEM1 Business Accounting
• PEM2 Organization Behavior
• PEM5 Energy Geopolitics
• PEM 6 Upstream Management
• PEM9 Production and Reservoir Engineering (9a.Beginner/9b.Advanced)

IFP Semester 2 (Summer)

• PEM3 Strategic Marketing
• PEM4 Energy Economics and Development
• PEM7 Downstream Economics
• PEM8 Commodities Markets and Trading
• PEM10 Refining
• PEM11 Efficiency Analysis of Industrial Firms
• PEM12 Industrial Optimization
• PEM13 Advance Econometrics

Resource Commodity Analytics (RCA) Certificate

The Mines graduate certificate in Resource Commodity Analytics (RCA) is a four-course program that provides training in advanced quantitative and financial analysis applied to energy and mineral markets. The RCA certificate program takes the most quantitative aspects of our world-renowned graduate programs in Mineral and Energy Economics and Engineering and Technology Management to make an accelerated certificate. The program will serve professionals or recent graduates located in the Denver metro area who want to acquire new skills for career growth. This in-person program holds classes only on Mondays and Wednesdays in order to provide flexibility and opportunity for those who will remain employed locally or remotely, or are unable to complete a full Masters program. However, course credits are “stackable” in case students want to continue on to a Masters degree, or complete the certificate “on the way” to their Masters. Courses in the program focus on natural resource markets & regulation, data analysis & forecasting, and financial valuation. The course of study is flexible enough to be completed in one intensive semester or over four semesters depending on the student’s needs and interests.

An undergraduate degree in a business, science, technology, engineering, math, or social science discipline with some coursework or experience with quantitative analysis is usually required to be admitted to this program.

The RCA Program

The certificate in Resource Commodity Analytics involves 12 credit hours of course work. Students must take at least one of the two required courses and an additional nine credit hours either from the list of required courses and/or elective courses. Full-time students intending to complete the certificate in one semester must enter in the fall; part-time students can enter in the spring or fall. In order to apply, please go to Admissions . No GRE test scores or letters of recommendation are needed.

Click here for more information on the curriculum and how to apply.

More Information

• Program Flyer
• FAQ’s
• Course Catalog
• MS MEE Advising Sheet
• PhD MEE Advising Sheet
• Dual Degree MEE Advising Sheet
• Spring Course Schedule
• Fall Course Schedule
• List of Graduate Courses
• Tuition Information

If you have questions or would like more information about the program, please contact Ian Lange

[email protected]

303-384-2430

Student Fellowships and Funding Opportunities

Teaching assistant positions, darlene regina pauli scholarship fund, lowell and cheryl shonk graduate fellowship.

Lowell and Cheryl Shonk have generously established a fellowship fund for graduate students in Mineral and Energy Economics in the Department of Economics and Business at Colorado School of Mines.

Lowell Shonk graduated from Mines in 1979 with a Master’s degree in Mineral Economics.  Mr. Shonk also received an undergraduate degree in Economics from Indiana University and an MBA from the University of Colorado.  With 40 years in the international mining and minerals industry, Mr. Shonk has served in various executive positions, including financial leadership, business development and merger and acquisition activities .   In all positions, Mr. Shonk has drawn on his education and experiences at Mines and owes his career to the foundation that Mines provided.

Fellowship award details and eligibility:

• Master’s or PhD students accepted and/or enrolled into the Mineral & Energy Economics program at Colorado School of Mines.
• US Citizens demonstrating financial need. Note:  Students must submit a Federal FASFA application.
• Preference shall be given to Master’s degree candidates pursuing a thesis option.
• Awards shall be made to two or more students and shall not exceed more than 50% of the cost of tuition and fees per year, per student.

Awards may be renewable for a second year subject to good progress toward a degree and the student remains in good standing.

Federal Student Loans

External sources.

• Society for Mining Metallurgy and Exploration student scholarships

Job/Internship Placement

• Previous Article
• Next Article
• Introduction
• Early-Stage Exploration
• Delineation and Possibly Economic Discoveries
• Estimating Cash Flow
• Cash Flows: Mine-Site Products
• Cash Flows: Benefits
• Cash Flows: Costs
• Pre-Tax Cash Flow
• Taxes and Mineral Royalties
• Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
• Sensitivity Analysis
• Discussion and Conclusions
• Acknowledgments

Mineral Economics and the Business of Mineral Supply

† E-mail: [email protected]

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Michael Doggett; Mineral Economics and the Business of Mineral Supply. SEG Discovery 2022;; (131): 25–39. doi: https://doi.org/10.5382/Geo-and-Mining-17

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Editor’s note: The aim of the Geology and Mining series is to introduce early career professionals and students to various aspects of mineral exploration, development, and mining in order to share the experiences and insight of each author on the myriad of topics involved with the mineral industry and the ways in which geoscientists contribute to each.

The business of mineral supply comprises the costs, risks, and returns of converting natural capital to financial capital. As such, it represents the interface between economic geology and mineral economics. The traditional approach to studying mineral supply, however, is less an interface than a series of silos covering geologic, engineering, business, and social aspects of the conversion process. The challenges of meeting the ever-increasing demand for minerals and metals will require better communication and understanding across disciplines and stakeholder groups in order to mitigate discovery and development risks. For economic geologists, improved communication starts with an understanding of the essential economic tools and metrics that are used to assign value to projects and make decisions about their advancement toward production. Furthermore, economic geologists should recognize and build on the interface between the economic characteristics of valuations and the underlying geologic characteristics of deposits. The sizes and distribution of project cash flows are intimately linked to the underlying styles and distribution of mineralization within deposits. Understanding how geologic processes created and altered mineral deposits is incredibly useful in grasping the economics of undoing those processes to recover payable minerals and metals.

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Mineral Economics

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In collaboration with the Bureau’s CEE, the Economic Minerals Program includes full analysis of key drivers and underlying market fundamentals that affect minerals and minerals commodities. Whether the topic is frac sands and aggregates or lithium, REE and uranium, energy sector use represents a large component of industrial uptake of minerals resources.

Minerals value chains entail upstream (resource definition and recovery), midstream (intermediate processing and field to market logistics) and downstream (end use). Systematic analysis and understanding of full cycle cost and value chain considerations are required in order to fully evaluate “prospectivity” and “deliverability” of minerals resources. The Bureau and the Economic Minerals Program are concerned with value and supply chain integrity for Texas minerals resources as well as for larger national and international interests.

Total value of lithium carbonate trade in 2015 (USD)

The scope of research and investigations include the following.

Commodity Markets to Support Ongoing Research

• For traded minerals (exchanges or over the counter)—price formation and supply-demand fundamentals.
• Forward and future price indicators.
• Cash values (where available).

Upstream Costs and Benchmarking

• Extraction costs and financing for minerals under investigation.
• Extractive industry organization—domestic producers and cost structures, national mining companies and associated commercial frameworks (following CEE’s national oil company research, and ongoing NOC benchmarking).
• Minerals and mining sector governance.

Midstream Logistics

• Economics of intermediate treatment and processing.
• Transportation systems and shipping.
• Trade flows and related issues.

Downstream and End Use

• Key applications for economic minerals in industry and energy.
• Critical shifts impacting supply and demand in energy applications.
• Supply and value chain risks and uncertainties.

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Outlook for key minerals

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IEA (2024), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024 , IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2024, Licence: CC BY 4.0

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Mineral demand for clean energy technologies doubles between today and 2030 in the steps and aps and grows by almost three times in the nze scenario.

The growth of power generation capacity from low-emissions sources accelerates in all three IEA scenarios. Renewables account for the majority of capacity additions in every region over the outlook period. The acceleration of renewable energy deployment calls for modernising distribution grids and establishing new transmission corridors to connect renewable resources that are far from demand centres such as cities and industrial areas. Global EV sales are set to grow strongly, more than tripling by 2030 in the STEPS and APS to almost 45 million and 50 million vehicles, respectively, and increasing more than fivefold to 70 million in the NZE Scenario.

The accelerating pace of energy transitions is set to significantly boost mineral demand across all the three scenarios. In the STEPS, demand doubles to 2030 with continued growth thereafter. In the APS, demand more than doubles by 2030 and triples by 2050. In the NZE Scenario, the swifter adoption of clean energy technologies implies an even more pronounced surge in demand for critical minerals, nearly tripling by 2030 and growing to over 3.5 times the current levels by 2050, reaching nearly 40 Mt.

It is important to note that demand projections are subject to large variations, influenced not only by broader policy considerations (reflected in our energy scenarios) but also by technology costs and innovations, as well as behavioural factors. To address this complexity, the IEA has developed more than ten alternative cases to assess the impacts of different consumer preferences and technology advancements on future mineral requirements. The findings of these cases are available through the updated IEA Critical Minerals Data Explore r, an accompanying online data tool designed to allows users to easily access and navigate the projection results.

Limiting global warming to 1.5° C, as in the NZE Scenario, means very rapid growth in demand for key minerals

In the NZE Scenario, demand for copper rises by 50% by 2040, while demand for nickel, cobalt and rare earth elements doubles, and graphite demand increases by four times over the same period, propelled by the substantial increase in battery deployment for EVs and grid storage. Of all the minerals, lithium stands out in this scenario with eightfold growth by 2040, highlighting its crucial role in batteries. Across all materials, the share of clean energy technologies in total demand rises significantly. In most cases, the clean energy sector emerges as the largest consumer of these minerals. In the NZE Scenario, EVs and battery storage are projected to account for over 90% of total lithium demand by 2030.

Global lithium demand in the Net Zero Scenario, 2023-2040

Global copper demand in the net zero scenario, 2023-2040, global cobalt demand in the net zero scenario, 2023-2040, global nickel demand in the net zero scenario, 2023-2040, global rare earths demand in the net zero scenario, 2023-2040, global graphite demand in the net zero scenario, 2023-2040.

The combined market value of key energy transition minerals more than doubles by 2040 in climate-driven scenarios, reaching USD 770 billion in the NZE Scenario.

At around USD 325 billion, the combined market value of key energy transition minerals is set to increase by 55% in the APS by 2030 and by 80% in the NZE Scenario. By 2040, the market value more than doubles, reaching USD 770 billion in the NZE Scenario. copper maintains the largest market value at USD 330 billion, while the lithium market undergoes significant expansion to USD 230 billion by 2040, emerging as the second-largest market, followed by nickel. The graphite market also undergoes almost sixfold growth over the period to 2040.

In the base case supply scenario, this growth in market value is spread across key regions. For mining, Latin America captures the largest amount with around USD 120 billion by 2030, driven by substantial copper production in the area. Indonesia sees the fastest growth, doubling its market value by 2030 due to its burgeoning nickel mining activities. Africa also witnesses a 65% increase in market value, attributed to the rapid expansion of copper production in the region. However, the market value for refining is notably more concentrated, with China claiming nearly 50% of the market value in 2030. China also sees a rise in market value for mined materials as the country's production of copper, lithium, and rare earth elements undergoes rapid expansion.  

Market value of key energy transition minerals in the Announced Pledges Scenario and the Net Zero Scenario, 2023-2040

A complex and varied picture for future supply-demand balances and security of supply.

In recent years, substantial investments have been made in mineral supply, and an increasing number of projects have been announced, indicating an expansion in expected supply volumes in the coming years. In some cases, such as cobalt, nickel and rare earth elements, the expected supply by 2035 from both existing and announced projects aligns more closely with the projected demand in the APS, particularly in cases where projects assumed in the high production case come to fruition. However, the timely delivery of planned projects is far from guaranteed and meeting the requirements in the NZE Scenario necessitates further project developments.

The situation differs for copper and lithium. Announced projects indicate that mined copper supply may peak a mined copper supply gap develops in the current decade in the base case. Even under the high production scenario, the anticipated supply by 2035 falls well short of meeting the APS requirements, indicating a potential necessity for a further increase in scrap utilisation, demand reduction through material substitution or technological innovation, alongside efforts to foster additional project developments. Lithium presents another significant challenge, exhibiting a substantial anticipated gap with climate-driven needs, owing to the strong position of lithium-ion batteries in EVs and storage applications. The current downturn in prices may dampen investment appetite for new greenfield projects, which could have profound longer-term implications.

Expected supply from existing and announced projects and primary supply requirements in the Announced Pledges Scenario, 2035

Analysis of project pipelines indicates that the geographical concentration of mining operations is set to rise further or remain high over the projection period.

Global mineral supply chains are not well diversified, and recent progress on diversifying supply sources has been limited. Our analysis of project pipelines suggests that the geographical concentration of mining operations is set to remain high in most cases. The situation improves somewhat in the high production case, indicating that many projects being developed in geographically diverse regions are not among the front-runners for development. This pattern mirrors the situation in refining operations, as most refining projects are located in today's dominant producers, thus prolonging high concentration levels in refined material production. These high levels of supply concentration raise risks of potential supply disruptions due to physical accidents, geopolitical events or other developments in a key producing country, with major potential implications for the speed of energy transitions.

Geographical distribution of mined or raw material production for key energy transition minerals in the base case, 2023-2040

Geographical distribution of refined material production for key energy transition minerals in the base case, 2023-2040, major implications for market balances if the largest supplier and their demand is excluded from the equation.

Given that the top producing nation is responsible for a large portion of global supply for most minerals, available supply outside the largest producing country may be significantly constrained to achieve these ambitions. We conducted the “N-1 test” to assess how the supply and demand landscape might appear if the largest global supplier were removed from the market. Specifically, we assessed N-1 supply and N-1 material requirements in 2030 in the APS, excluding both anticipated supply from the largest supplier and projected demand from that country. In most cases, the N-1 supply falls significantly below the N-1 material requirements (even for minerals where the overall global balance is reasonably well supplied). If the CRMA’s non-single-origin minimum threshold (35%) is applied in a global context, the N-1 nickel and cobalt supply is barely able to meet this minimum threshold. The situation is even more pronounced for graphite. Although there is abundant supply of graphite globally, the expected N-1 supply is entirely insufficient to meet the minimum threshold. This indicates that without urgent efforts to develop additional projects in geographically diverse regions, achieving the goals set by policy legislation would be highly challenging.      

This analysis underscores the need for concerted efforts to expedite the development of promising projects located in geographically diverse regions. Additionally, it highlights the importance of harnessing the potential for value chain expansion in major resource holders in emerging and developing economies, provided such expansion is economically viable and can yield significant economic and social advantages. Investment across the supply chain is crucial, yet equally vital is unlocking the potential of recycling, innovation, and behavioural change.

Lithium and graphite show the highest risk scores, though the specific areas of exposure vary by mineral

Lithium and copper are more exposed to supply and volume risks whereas graphite, cobalt, rare earths and nickel face more substantial geopolitical risks. On the other hand, graphite, rare earth elements and lithium have relatively little ability to respond to potential supply disruptions.

Most minerals are exposed to high environmental risks and have particularly high ratings for environmental performance for the refining segment in large part because today’s refining operations occur in places with higher carbon intensity of the grid, mostly in regions relying on coal-based electricity. Mining assets are also exposed to growing water stress and earthquake risks, with around 10% of global copper production facing supply risks related to droughts.

Clean energy transition risk score for key energy transition minerals

The nze scenario requires around usd 800 billion of investment in mining between today and 2040.

Large amounts of investment will be required to develop new supply sources to meet the required demand for critical minerals in climate-driven scenarios. For mining, we estimate that approximately USD 590 billion is required in new capital investments between now and 2040 in the APS. As the NZE Scenario sees faster deployment of clean energy technologies, total capital requirements are about 30% higher at nearly USD 800 billion over the same period. The largest investment among the critical minerals is in copper. Capital requirements to 2040 for copper mining are USD 330 billion in the APS and USD 490 billion in the NZE Scenario. These amounts reflect not only the significant levels of demand, but also escalating capital requirements per tonne of ore caused by declining ore quality. 

Capital requirements for mining to meet demand in the Announced Pledges and Net Zero Scenarios, by 2040

Financing diversified critical mineral supply chains faces numerous challenges, primarily stemming from two underlying factors: high input costs and long-term price uncertainty. Governments can intervene in various ways to help finance more diversified value chains. These interventions can come from four main sources: government departments and policy banks, sovereign wealth funds (SWF), development finance institutions (DFI), and export credit/insurance agencies (ECA). These agencies may engage directly with private sector firms, through state-owned or backed enterprises, in a hybrid fashion, or in partnership with foreign counterparts. They have a number of policy options available to them that range from direct debt or equity investments to indirect financial support and de risking measures that boost competitiveness.

Scaling up recycling, continued investment in technology innovation and promoting consumer behavioural changes play a crucial role in ensuring the security of mineral supplies

A comprehensive approach to security and sustainability of supply needs to also address the demand side of the equation, which plays a crucial role in narrowing supply-demand gaps while simultaneously mitigating the potential environmental and social harms associated with resource extraction and use. Recycling creates a secondary supply of minerals that relieves the pressure on primary supply from mining and refining. A strong focus on recycling can deliver triple benefits: complementing primary mineral supplies, improving security of supply for regions with limited resource endowments and enhancing environmental performance and waste management. While recycling would not eliminate the need for continued investment in new supplies, we estimate that by 2040, recycled quantities of copper, lithium, nickel and cobalt from clean energy applications could reduce primary supply requirements for key minerals by 10-30%.

Technology advances also have a major role in alleviating potential supply strains. For example, significant reductions in the use of silver and silicon in solar cells over the past decade have contributed to a spectacular rise in deployment of solar PV. A sensitivity case covering an accelerated global adoption of lithium-iron phosphate chemistries and sodium-ion batteries could reduce mineral demand for EV batteries by around 13% in 2030 and 18% in 2050 compared to the NZE Scenario’s base case.

Behavioural changes in the NZE Scenario help to bring about a more equitable and just energy transition. But in terms of critical minerals, behavioural changes can also imply a more tempered demand that can help narrow the demand-supply gap, especially changes in behaviour related to transport needs. In the case of lithium, the combination of smaller EV battery sizes (behavioural change), alternative chemistries and recycling could reduce demand for lithium by 25% in 2030 in the NZE Scenario, saving an amount similar to today’s production volumes. With these reductions, new supplies would need to grow by 20% per year between today and 2030. The lithium industry managed to deliver this scale of growth in recent years. For example, lithium raw material supply grew by roughly 20% per year over the past five years.

Share of secondary supply in total demand for selected materials in the Net Zero Scenario, 2010-2040

Market transparency brings important benefits to all aspects of the supply chain.

Despite strong expected increases in demand, market transparency of commodities such as cobalt, lithium, and rare earth elements remains limited, challenging price-hedging and discouraging investment and risk assessments. Market transparency covers both the question of pricing – including efficient market price discovery mechanisms and financial tools to hedge price risks – and information – the importance of publicly available data on consumption, supply, inventories, trade and ESG performance.

With greater transparency, producers and consumers are able to hedge their price risk, plan their stocks and production, and negotiate fair contracts. Merchants and intermediaries are able to correct global supply and demand imbalances as efficiently as possible. Governments benefit by being able to plan ahead and ensure supply continuity. Information transparency enables the anticipation of potential risk areas, allowing policymakers to target support where it is most needed.

Some nations already disclose significant data on mining volumes, given the economic and social importance of this activity in their jurisdictions. Stock exchanges and their regulators, particularly in Canada (NI National Instrument 43-101 Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects) and Australia (Joint Ore Reserves Committee [JORC] reporting code), have also played a crucial role in making more data on production and reserves of publicly traded mining companies accessible. Public data initiatives have the potential to offer valuable insights to stakeholders in the market. While some disclosures have been made under the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), countries do not necessarily systematically disclose the information even if it is required under EITI. In addition to private disclosures from publicly traded companies, efforts are underway to classify and make data on resources more readily available, often held by geological surveys, with the United Nations Framework Classification for Resources. There is also scope to improve codes for trade reporting to better track trade flows of raw and refined materials.

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Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Mineral economics - Africa'

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Rustomjee, Zavareh Zal Rustom. "The political economy of South African industrialisation : the role of the minerals-energy complex." Thesis, SOAS, University of London, 1993. http://eprints.soas.ac.uk/29566/.

Smith, Trevor Allen. "Minerals policy and taxation in the new South Africa : an analysis of proposed ANC policy." Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 1995. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/15978.

Kola, Trevor Tebogo. "Mineral Beneficiation : a continuing African paradox or a panacea for economic growth and skills development." Diss., University of Pretoria, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/2263/71589.

Mutahi, Kiama. "The United States, the Congo, and the mineral crisis of 1960-64:A triple entente of economic interest." Miami University / OhioLINK, 2013. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=miami1376054002.

Xongo, Nosipho. "The impact of mining on infrastructure development and poverty reduction in mining communities." Thesis, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1018576.

Moussi, Sopp Louis Romain. "El Serafy User costs and their implications for macroeconomic policy in Africa's mineral rich economies." Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/29720.

Erasmus, Lourens J. "A model for evaluating risk in Africa : a mining perspective." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/5733.

Morojele, Relebohile Nthati. "Determining the attitudes/perceptions of retrenched Lesotho migrant labourers from the RSA mining industries regarding education using their career life histories." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/49907.

Ramushu, Mahlatse Rosinah. "The socio-economic impact of Modikwa Platinum Mine on the Maandagshoek Community with reference to the applicable mining law framework." Thesis, University of Limpopo (Turfloop Campus), 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10386/406.

Maro, Mkasafari Grace. "Economic impact of international labour migration on Lesotho's development, 1986-1998: towards an international labour migration policy for the Southern African region." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1007496.

Brennan, Michael Brendan. "The genesis of ilmenite-rich heavy mineral deposits in the Bothaville/Delmas area, and an economic analysis of titanium, with particular reference to the Dwarsfontein deposit, Delmas district." Thesis, Rhodes University, 1991. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005561.

Du, Plessis Rudolf. "The South African mining industry towards 2055: scenarios." Thesis, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10948/4215.

Tongo, Yanga. "Financial sector development and sectoral output growth evidence from South Africa." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002739.

Heyns, Anri. "Empowerment through mine community development: how the politics of development perpetuate poverty in mining areas – a legal theoretical analysis." Doctoral thesis, Faculty of Law, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/32685.

Baartjes, Joan Charlaine. "Exploring the use of mineral corridors and stranded ore deposits in order to alleviate rural poverty and effect environmental and social change through a proposed rural development corridor in South Africa." Thesis, University of Fort Hare, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10353/389.

Terlien, Damien. "A social and economic impact assessment of the South African mineral and petroleum resources development act on the small-scale diamond mining sector." Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/7971.

Ajagbe, Stephen Mayowa. "An analysis of the long run comovements between financial system development and mining production in South Africa." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002689.

Zogg, Philipp Emanuel. "Who mines what belongs to all? A historical analysis of the relationship between the state and capital in the South African mining industry." Thesis, Stellenbosch : University of Stellenbosch, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/6807.

Bredenhann, Hester Maria (Esme). "A study to establish a simple, reliable and economical method of evaluating food and nutritional intake of male mineworkers residing in a single accommodation residence on a platinum mine in the North West Province." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/71887.

Krausová, Kateřina. "Vliv nerostných surovin na politiku a ekonomiku ve vybraných státech subsaharské Afriky." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2013. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-194090.

Perfect, Ellen. "Sustainable Mining for Long Term Poverty Alleviation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2017. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/1709.

Venier, Katherine-­Marie. "Institutional impediments to growth in the mining sector in South Africa." Diss., 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/2263/45027.

"Relating minerals to economic indicators." Thesis, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10210/9567.

"A mineral economic feasibility study of a small brickworks." Thesis, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10210/10260.

"Mineral economic factors affecting the gold price and gold equities." Thesis, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10210/13251.

Nyembe, Thembi. "The socio-economic factors of Medupi Power Station on Lephalale." Thesis, 2018. https://hdl.handle.net/10539/28606.

Khenisa, Matthews Bhekuyise. "The impact of mineral extraction on local economic development of mining towns: a Marikana perspective." Thesis, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10539/23640.

Tshabalala, Isaac. "Strategies for stimulating socio-economic growth from small-scale mining operations in Qwaqwa (South Africa)." Thesis, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10413/8161.

Kgoale, Thupane Peshley. "Transformative mineral resources beneficiation legislation : an impetus for socio-economic transformation and poverty alleviation in South Africa." Thesis, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10386/2925.

Nkongolo, Kabange Jr. "Improving the governance of mineral resources in Africa through a fundamental rights-based approach to community participation." Thesis, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10500/14186.

Boaduo, Adwoa Pokuaa. "Towards sustainable economic development in the gold mining areas of South Africa and Ghana." Thesis, 2017. https://hdl.handle.net/10539/25541.

Machaba, Thabiso Jacob. "The realities of royalties in South African Mineral and Petroleum Royalty Bill." Thesis, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10539/5822.

Khorombi, Mpho. "Factors affecting the financial performance of mining companies in South Africa." Thesis, 2017. https://hdl.handle.net/10539/23855.

Sheerin, Anne Marshall. "Valuable or devalued? An ethnography of mine work in crisis." Thesis, 2015. https://hdl.handle.net/10539/24593.

Pilusa, Kgashane Lucas. "Assessing the role of Ba-Phalaborwa Local Municipality in addressing the socio-economic mining challenges in Phalaborwa Community of Limpopo Province." Thesis, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10386/537.

Makiese, Julien Gilles Lusilao. "Characterization and modeling of mercury speciation in industrially polluted areas due to energy production and mineral processing in south africa." Thesis, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10539/11829.

Wakerman, Boguslaw Wojciech. "Geological and mineral economic evaluation and assessment of the Permian Karoo Supergroup coal assets owned by Eyesizwe Coal (Pty) Ltd, a Black empowerment company, South Africa." Thesis, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10210/10341.

Nhasengo, Albert. "Sustainability of funding models used in Black Economic Empowerment transactions in the South African mining sector." Thesis, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10539/20628.

Tsebe, Mapuru Rachel. "Impact of mining on agriculture and socio-economic aspects in the rural communities of Greater Tubatse Local Municipality." Diss., 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10500/25600.

Ackermann, Maria Elizabeth. "Mine closure : a contingency plan to mitigate socio-economic disasters / Maria Elizabeth Ackermann." Thesis, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10394/11004.

Cockcroft, Darryl Clem. "Productivity accounting on an operating mine." Thesis, 1996. http://hdl.handle.net/10539/22834.

Pila, Mankele Mathews. "A legal assessment of the impact of ownership of mineral rights on communal or rural land occupiers." Thesis, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10386/886.

Mahlaule, Ntiyiso Ally. "Economic evaluation of Gold-Sulphides Mineralization within the North Leader Congleomate at N0:5 Shaft of Blyvoorvitzicht Gold Mine South Africa." Thesis, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/11602/409.

Ramphele, Samuel Motlatso. "Mining companies and Local Economic and Social Development in the Greater Tubatse Municipal Area of Limpopo Province in South Africa." Thesis, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10386/916.

Magodi, Rofhiwa. "Assessment and management of environmental and socio-economic impacts of small-scale gold mining at Giyani Greenstone Belt." Diss., 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/11602/893.

Nemapate, Ndivhuwo. "Evaluation of economic potential of gold tailings dams: case studies of the Klein Letaba and Louis Moore Tailings Dams, Limpopo Province, South Africa." Diss., 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/11602/1003.

Ravele, Rembuluwani Solly. "Economic potential of gold mine waste: a case study of Consolidated Murchison Mine Waste." Diss., 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/11602/1445.

Lekwadu, Maelane Irene. "The experiences, challenges and coping strategies of women residing around the mining communities : the case of Driekop community, Limpopo Province, South Africa." Diss., 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10500/26581.

Svobodová, Petra. "Angažovanost Čínské lidové republiky v Africe." Master's thesis, 2013. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-329583.

Naidoo, Suvania. "Development actors and the issues of acid mine drainage in the Vaal River system." Diss., 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10500/13932.

Critical minerals demand has doubled in the past five years – here are some solutions to the supply crunch

Critical minerals play vital roles in green technologies. Image:  Unsplash/Markus Spiske

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This article was first published in August 2023 and updated in May 2024.

• Critical minerals like lithium, cobalt and nickel are vital building blocks for many green technologies.
• More investment in critical minerals will boost the chance of meeting global climate targets, the International Energy Agency says.
• But a secure, abundant and affordable supply of critical minerals is needed to ensure a smooth energy transition, according to the World Economic Forum.

Investing in critical minerals will boost our chances of meeting global climate goals.

That’s the view of the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its first report on the outlook for critical minerals , in which every scenario forecasts a rapid increase in demand.

Critical minerals play vital roles in green technologies – for example in the construction of wind turbines, electric vehicles and solar panels. Demand for these technologies is rising around the world, with global battery demand one of the key factors in this growth.

Lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese and graphite are crucial to battery performance, longevity and energy density, according to the IEA.

Ensuring a robust supply will underpin the world’s climate goals, and help reach green targets. In fact, without them, our main strategies for decarbonization of our energy systems will likely flounder. But with a global switch from fossil fuels to critical minerals, political and environmental dangers must be carefully managed, warns a new World Economic Forum white paper, Energy Transition and Geopolitics: Are Critical Minerals the New Oil? .

Ensuring an effective energy transition

As the Forum pointed out in its Fostering Effective Energy Transition report for 2023, the energy transition will need a secure, abundant and affordable supply of critical minerals. Ensuring this will also help build resilience into the transition, it said.

The IEA report noted a marked increase in spending. Investment in critical mineral development rose 30% in 2022, after a 20% increase in 2021. Among the different minerals, lithium saw the sharpest increase in investment, a jump of 50%, followed by copper and nickel.

The Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2023 report showed that after a decade of progress, the global energy transition has plateaued amid the global energy crisis and geopolitical volatilities.

The World Economic Forum’s Centre for Energy and Materials is driving the transition to a “fit for 2050” energy system. It is a cross-industry platform building new coalitions and delivering insights required for a sustainable, secure and just energy future.

Learn more about our impact:

• Clean energy in emerging economies: We are advancing country-specific renewable energy finance solutions for four of the biggest emerging and developing economies : India, Brazil, Nigeria and Indonesia. In the latter, a new solar and battery initiative is bringing 15MW of clean energy to the East Sumba region – enough to power 4,000 homes and avoid 5.5KtCO₂ yearly emissions.
• Energy Transition Index: We have measured the progress of 120 countries on the performance of their energy systems, enabling policymakers and businesses to identify the necessary actions for the energy transition.
• Mining and metals blockchain : We released a proof of concept to trace emissions across the value chain using blockchain technology, helping accelerate global action for country-specific financing solutions.
• Clean power and electrification: We are accelerating the adoption of clean power and electric solutions in the next decade to help increase clean energy consumption threefold by 2030.

Want to know more about our centre’s impact or get involved? Contact us .

Even so, more needs to be done to make sure we are fit for the future.

“If all planned critical mineral projects are realized, supply in 2030 could be enough to support announced climate pledges,” the report said. “But project delays and other issues could lead to supply constraints.”

And more projects are needed to keep the goal of 1.5°C of warming in reach, it said.

The IEA – which has also launched a new online data tool to explore the topic – hosted the first-ever international summit on critical minerals and their role in clean energy transitions in September 2023.

Securing the critical minerals supply chain

The IEA report highlighted how many governments are focused on the issue, with its policy tracker identifying around 200 policies and regulations across the globe that aim to ensure adequate and sustainable mineral supplies.

These include the European Union’s Critical Raw Materials Act, the United States’ Inflation Reduction Act, Australia’s Critical Minerals Strategy and Canada’s Critical Minerals Strategy.

Some of these include restrictions on imports and exports, it said, with global export restrictions on critical raw materials seeing a fivefold increase since 2009.

Spending on critical minerals among private companies has also increased, with firms specializing in lithium development recording a 50% increase in spending.

Sub-Saharan Africa is estimated to hold about 30% of critical mineral reserves, which has the potential to transform the region , according to the International Monetary Fund.

“We are encouraged by the rapid growth in the market for critical minerals, which are crucial for the world to achieve its energy and climate goals,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “Even so, major challenges remain. Much more needs to be done to ensure supply chains for critical minerals are secure and sustainable.”

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The Political Economy of Industrial Policy

We examine the ways in which political realities shape industrial policy through the lens of modern political economy. We consider two broad “governance constraints”: i) the political forces that shape how industrial policy is chosen and ii) the ways in which state capacity affects implementation. The framework of modern political economy suggests that government failure is not a necessary feature of industrial policy; rather, it is more likely to emerge when countries pursue industrial policies beyond their governance capacity constraints. As such, our political economy of industrial policy is not fatalist. Instead, it enables policymakers to constructively confront challenges.

We thank Bentley Allan, Heather Boushey, Cristina Caffarra, George Dibb, Claudio Ferraz, Mark Lane, Weijia Li, Jonas Meckling, Jonas Nahm, Dani Rodrik, Todd Tucker, and Eric Verhoogen for helpful comments and conversations. We thank Lottie Field, Mikhael Gaster, Saumya Joshi, Nancy Sun, and Esha Vaze for their excellent research assistance and input. We are indebted to Gian Aswin Chansrichawla for guiding our focus to Thailand as a candidate case study, and for helpful conversations and references about the Thai case. Funding from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation is gratefully acknowledged. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

MARC RIS BibTeΧ

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Beyond Gross Domestic Product: including nature in economic policy assessment

Nature-inclusive policy-making requires an indicator measuring the contribution from ecosystems to the benefits used by people and society. Such an indicator should complement the typical economic measure of GDP in policy scenarios and assessments.

The supply of ecosystem services, such as crop pollination and water purification, are of great importance to any economy, both directly and indirectly. However, most assessments use Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as the main economic development indicator. GDP shows the total value of output/income generated in a country, but it does not capture fully the contributions of nature to economic activity. The concept of Gross Ecosystem Product (GEP), which summarises the value that ecosystem services provide to the economy in monetary terms, is a way to overcome these shortcomings in policy assessments. It also allows assessing the impact of particular policies on the overall condition of ecosystems.

A JRC study shows the importance of adding nature’s value 

The  Gross Ecosystem Product in Macroeconomic Modelling report explains and showcases how GEP can be applied in macroeconomic analyses alongside the traditional GDP indicator. The application of GEP to assess the value of ecosystem services in the decision-making process could enhance the quality of new policies and stewardship, which in turn could improve the management of natural capital. 

Real-world policy implementations of GEP as a metric alongside GDP are still pending due to various reasons, including technical limitations related to data availability and the complexity of ecosystem service valuation resulting in large uncertainties of estimates. However, preliminary simulations using the INCA (Integrated Natural Capital Accounting) approach and data show that the inclusion of GEP can alter the outcome of evaluations significantly, offering a more nuanced and realistic picture of the value of ecosystem services. 

For example, JRC researchers simulated a scenario in which changes in consumer preferences lead to a gradual increase in the consumption of proteins of plant origin. GDP would record a positive, yet very small, economic impact: an increase of 0.01% in the EU in 2030 compared to the reference scenario. In contrast, the GEP index would increase by 1.5%: this corresponds to 2.3 billion euros, a significant economic impact that GDP missed almost entirely.

A fruitful collaboration

The report is the result of a cooperation between scientists from the JRC and Wageningen Economic Research (WEcR), who develop and operate a macroeconomic model called MAGNET. Compared to other models used to assess the impact of policies on the economy, MAGNET was the most fitting option due to its built-in ability to represent land supply and forestry. JRC researchers introduced the new GEP module to MAGNET, which allows comparing the impact of different policies on both GDP and GEP in the European Union. The GEP module uses the INCA dataset, developed and maintained by the JRC, to incorporate the value of ecosystem services. This dataset is a product of the INCA project, which follows the System of Environmental Economic Accounting (SEEA) global framework. Adhering to this international standard ensures the credibility of the GEP module.

The development of the GEP module is an ongoing process: JRC researchers are working on ways to make it even more accurate and effective. For example, connecting it to larger and more detailed data sets could lead to better specification of the ecosystem services supply functions and to the inclusion of more types of ecosystem services in the GEP indicator. Enriching GEP accounting with perspectives on the link between biological and human production, or considering harm to the ecosystem carrying capacity, may also contribute to make the model more accurate. 

• Green transition
• Healthy biodiversity
• Sustainable food systems

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Public’s Positive Economic Ratings Slip; Inflation Still Widely Viewed as Major Problem

Majorities in both parties remain fearful about the state of the country, table of contents.

• Views of top problems facing the nation
• Americans’ views of the state of the nation
• Similar shares in both parties view personal financial situation positively
• Americans’ views on the future of the economy and their financial situation
• Changes in views of the country’s top problems
• Acknowledgments
• The American Trends Panel survey methodology

Pew Research Center conducted this study to understand Americans’ views of the economy and problems facing the country. For this analysis, we surveyed 8,638 adults from May 13-19, 2024. Everyone who took part in this survey is a member of the Center’s American Trends Panel (ATP), an online survey panel that is recruited through national, random sampling of residential addresses. This way nearly all U.S. adults have a chance of selection. The survey is weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education and other categories. Read more about the ATP’s methodology .

Here are the questions used for this report , along with responses, and the survey methodology .

Inflation may be cooling , but it continues to loom large over Americans’ evaluations of the country and the economy.

Today, 23% of U.S. adults say the economy is in excellent or good shape, down from 28% in January but higher than the 19% who rated the economy positively last April.

• The recent negative slide in economic ratings has mainly taken place among Democrats and those who lean to the Democratic Party: 37% rate the economy positively today, down from 44% in January (but up from 28% last spring).
• Republicans and Republican leaners’ views are little changed over this period – only one-in-ten rate the economy positively.

The public again sees inflation as one of the top problems facing the nation, with 62% saying inflation is a very big problem for the country – only slightly down from the 65% who said this last year.

But another economic concern – unemployment – is not widely viewed as a very big problem for the country. Just 25% of Americans currently say it’s a very big problem.

What’s in this report?

• National economic and personal financial ratings (Chapter 1)
• Trends in views of the top problems facing the nation (Chapter 2)

Two other economic concerns – the affordability of health care and the federal budget deficit – continue to be seen as very big problems for the country.

The public’s list of the top problems facing the nation also includes drug addiction, illegal immigration, gun violence and violent crime. Each of these is seen as a very big problem by roughly half of the public.

• “The ability of Republicans and Democrats to work together” also continues to rate as a top problem.
• Of the 16 concerns included in the survey, it’s the only one that majorities in both partisan coalitions (57% of Republicans and 63% of Democrats) say is a very big problem for the country.

In contrast, the Pew Research Center survey of U.S. adults, conducted May 13-19 among 8,638 members of the Center’s nationally representative American Trends Panel, finds:

• Republicans and GOP leaners are far more likely than Democrats and Democratic leaners to see illegal immigration, the federal budget deficit and inflation as major problems.
• Democrats are considerably more likely than Republicans to view climate change, gun violence and racism as major national problems.

Americans continue to be more likely to feel fearful and angry about the state of the nation than to feel hopeful or proud – and this has largely been the case since Pew Research Center first asked these questions in June 2020.

Since Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election, Democrats have been considerably more likely than Republicans to express positive emotions about the state of the country (and less likely to express negative emotions). This is a reversal of the partisan patterns on these questions during the Trump administration.

Still, majorities in both parties – 64% of Republicans and 56% of Democrats – say they are fearful about the state of the country.

The public also continues to express much more dissatisfaction than satisfaction with the state of the nation – a trend that dates back decades. Today, 78% of Americans are dissatisfied with national conditions, while 22% are satisfied (34% of Democrats and 10% of Republicans).

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