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Investor Dialogue: Basic Fit, The Gym Group, & Discount Gyms

Inpractise.com/articles/ investor-dialogue-basic-fit-the-gym-group-and-discount-gyms, why is this interview interesting.

Investor Dialogues is a new format at In Practise. We invite 3-5 professional investors from our audience to participate in a recorded discussion on a specific company. Each participant is anonymised and named analyst 1-X in the transcript.

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The first thing we could discuss is the addressable market. Clearly, part of the bull case is that it’s huge. What is your sense of the potential limitations in that market size?

Analyst 1: From my understanding, the core markets for Basic-Fit is Benelux and France, where they are highly penetrated, at least way more penetrated than in other markets. If you compare the penetration of the European market, in terms of low-cost gyms and overall gym penetration, versus the US and probably the UK market, penetration is lower. I don’t want to base the whole thesis around the penetration of the low-cost gym market, but I would like to better understand the advantages that Basic-Fit has against other players in the market and if the market and tailwinds are enough to support more growth.

That was my sense. The fitness penetration in the US is around 20%. Part of the bull case of Basic-Fit is Europe getting there. Do you think there are any limitations why Europe, France and these different cultures in fitness, will get there?

Analyst 2: Comparing Gym and Basic-Fit, the growth runways are clearly different. I think the unit economics are, actually, very similar but the membership growth rates and the duration of growth are likely superior for Basic-Fit than Gym. There are a couple of things there and one is the obvious point about lower starting penetration levels; in aggregate, probably 12% versus 15% of Basic-Fit versus Gym’s markets. Then there is this opportunity to be the dominant market leader, versus the UK’s duopolistic structure which makes Planet Fitness-type market shares potentially more achievable in Europe.

You’ve had Planet, essentially, single-handedly driving the US’s penetration, whereas you have a number of players in the UK. In some markets, like the Netherlands, you have got more duopolistic structures. The third element that lends itself to thinking about these growth runways is, essentially, an attitude, favoring geographic expansion for businesses like PureGym and Basic-Fit and not so much Gym Group.

When I’ve tried to think about the valuation premium of Basic-Fit versus Gym, it largely has to be judged in that context. It does strike me that expanding into new markets is more valuable and lower cost when the portion of new joiners that are expanding the TAM is very high. They’re not prizing them away from competitors.

Is that also because, in the UK, you’ve basically got the Gym Group and PureGym aggressively expanding. It’s almost like a land grab, with these two, it seems?

Analyst 2: Yes, I think it’s a land grab but, obviously, Gym Group is confined, really, to the UK and being a duopolistic participant in the UK. I do think that you have clearly seen the top one or two pulling away in many, many markets and there is this real difficulty in getting beyond 50 sites and these smaller, low-cost players just seem to crumble. Meanwhile, the market leaders start to press this very hard to replicate lever, which is multi-site membership premiums and just reinvesting that entirely back into the cost proposition, so the distance just widens and widens.

Are there numbers on how many people use multiple gyms?

Analyst 3: About a quarter.

Analyst 4: I think it’s a little higher now. In 2016, it was 25%.

Analyst 2: I think it’s 27% in the UK and it’s £7 on a £20 membership and it’s 100% margin. It’s pretty meaningful.

How do you look at post-Covid normalization of home workouts potentially eating into market share or changing that consumer behavior, that could reduce or impact the TAM?

Analyst 3: I think there are a couple of things. I think that home workouts are, generically, not as much of a threat in Europe as they are in the US. If you look at the footage of an average home in the UK and Europe, versus the US, there is just not as much space to do a home workout. The second thing is, if you look at GYM and joining behavior, over the last two years, every time the lockdowns ended, you’ve seen a huge increase in membership.

I think, probably, what ends up happening is that working out at home and working out at the gym are complementary. There are a lot of things you can do at the gym that you can’t do at home. I don’t think it is a replacement experience.

Analyst 4: I would add two things to that. The first thing is, in the US, the average household only spends $150 on sports equipment so this idea that everyone is going to have a Peloton or buy all the weights, is kind of crazy. Secondly, these low-cost gyms are, basically, on-premise fitness equipment rental businesses. You have access to all the cardio and weight equipment, for €20 a month. If you were to recreate that experience at home, firstly, you need the space and, secondly, it would cost you tens of thousands of dollars.

If you are working out 10 times a month, for €20 a month, that’s effectively €2 per workout; you’re never going to be able to recreate that experience, at that cost, within your home. The spend is not there, for a household, to get the content within your home and the space is not there. I don’t really see it being a threat, over the long term, unless everyone works out in the metaverse.

In your mind, five years forward, Basic-Fit new unit growth has plummeted, much more than you expected. What do you think the main reasons would be?

Analyst 4: Maybe the pandemic continuing. The problem with that analysis is that it assumes consumer behavior changes and that takes a long time. I don’t think that happens in five years. For it to happen, there would have to be some sort of macro catastrophe or another pandemic or worsening of Covid. Other than that, for some reason, capital markets dry up, Basic-Fit stock plummets, it takes a long time for members to come back and they won’t have the capital to reinvest into new store growth. But I don’t see that happening.

It would either be just a really bad recession or some external pandemic that would affect their ability to open stores.

How reliant are they on capital markets? Obviously, they’ve got some debt out and need the leases, but is that a potential limitation if we see the cycle turn and they can’t finance that?

Analyst 3: They’re going to rely on the capital markets until the end of 2023 and, after that, they should be self-funding, unless they take the pace of growth up another level.

Related Content

The Gym Group: Clustering Units & Post-Covid Customer Behaviour

Founder of the gym group, the gym group: risk from anytime fitness, ènergie, & franchise chains, basic-fit, the gym group & discount gym economics, the gym group, basic fit & discount gyms, copyright notice.

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The Gym completes £250m London listing – further proof that commercial growth and social impact can go hand-in-hand

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• Bridges Ventures co-founded The Gym alongside John Treharne in 2007 after incubating the concept in-house, in line with its ‘health and well-being’ impact focus
• The Gym pioneered the low-cost gym model in the UK and now has more than 60 sites
• About a third of its 360,000 members were not previously members of a gym
• Bridges sold a portion of its stake to Phoenix Equity Partners in 2013, to fund the next phase of The Gym’s growth
• Today’s IPO – which values the business at £250m – means that Bridges’ investment in The Gym is now valued at almost 6x cost

The Gym Group (“The Gym”), a low-cost gym operator backed by Phoenix Equity Partners (“Phoenix”) and Bridges Ventures (“Bridges”), has successfully sold shares equivalent to 50% of the company via an offering on the London Stock Exchange. The initial offer price values the business at £250m.

Bridges co-founded The Gym alongside CEO John Treharne in 2007. In 2013, it sold a portion of its stake to Phoenix, retaining a 25% shareholding. Based on today’s float price, Bridges’ investment in The Gym is now valued at about 5.8x cost. It will realise a portion of that, while retaining a significant minority stake in the business post-IPO to benefit from its future success.

Bridges, a specialist sustainable and impact investor, originally invested in The Gym in line with its focus on backing for-profit companies that are helping to address big societal challenges in areas like health and well-being. Given the success of low-cost models in sectors like hotels and air travel, and the relatively low penetration of gym membership in the UK, Bridges theorised that a low-cost gym concept attracting a much broader demographic than traditional health clubs would have a clear growth opportunity – while also helping to promote healthier lifestyles and combat chronic conditions related to obesity. Since no such model existed in the UK, Bridges incubated the concept in-house and teamed up with John Treharne to co-found The Gym in 2007.

Prior to launch, the Bridges team – led by managing partner Philip Newborough – worked in tandem with John to develop the member proposition, design the technology infrastructure and identify a suitable location for the launch of The Gym’s first site, which opened in July 2008 in Hounslow. Subsequently, Bridges supported John on everything from identifying new sites, to obtaining bank finance, to strengthening the team and board. Bridges has continued to be an active minority investor since Phoenix became the majority owner of The Gym in 2013.

As of 30 September 2015, The Gym had expanded to incorporate 66 sites across the UK, with some 363,000 members.

Importantly, in addition to its commercial success, The Gym has had a clear and demonstrable positive social impact. About two-thirds of its sites are located in under-served areas, while around one-third of its members have not been members of a health and fitness club before. Thanks to its low price point, no-contract environment, and extended opening hours (most of the sites are open 24/7, and roughly one in ten members use it between the hours of 10pm and 6am), The Gym has been able to open up gym access to an entirely new demographic.

In addition, The Gym is providing employment to around 200 full-time employees and contracts with more than 550 self-employed personal trainers. And in recent years, it has been working hard to minimise its carbon footprint: through investment in the latest technology and equipment, it has been able to substantially reduce its electricity usage per user over time.

Philip Newborough, managing partner of Bridges (who has been on the board of The Gym since inception, originally as executive chairman), said:

“The Gym shows what can be achieved when impact-driven investors join forces with talented and visionary entrepreneurs. By focusing on how to address one of the biggest challenges in the health and well-being space, we were able to identify this sector as an opportunity. And by working with John, his talented team, and more recently Phoenix, we’ve been able to build a high-growth, high-impact business that has brought the benefits of gym membership to hundreds of thousands of people who have never been members of a gym before. So it’s a perfect illustration of Bridges’ core thesis: that positive social impact really can drive commercial success, and vice versa. We fully expect that, under John’s leadership, The Gym will continue to go from strength to strength as a public company.”

John Treharne, CEO of The Gym , said:

“The strength of our relationship with Bridges has been critical to The Gym’s success. Obviously it provided the capital we needed to grow and open new sites. But it’s been much more than that: particularly in the early days, Bridges provided The Gym with the kind of services that a small business would really struggle to afford, from building financial models to negotiating with the banks. We’re proud of the positive social impact we’ve been able to achieve together since 2007 as the business has grown, and we look forward to this continuing in the coming years.”

Notes to editors

About Bridges Ventures

Bridges Ventures is a specialist fund manager focused exclusively on sustainable and impact investment, with offices in London and New York. It invests in high-impact SMEs, properties and social sector organisations that can generate superior returns for both investors and society as a whole, focusing on four key impact ‘themes’: health & well-being, education, sustainable living and under-served markets. It manages almost £600 million across its Sustainable Growth, Property and Social Sector funds.

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The Gym Group plc Stock price

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Trump’s Media Company Worth Nearly $8 Billion on First Trading Day

Trump Media & Technology Group, fresh from a merger with a cash-rich shell company, started trading on the Nasdaq, adding billions of dollars to the former president’s wealth.

By Matthew Goldstein and Joe Rennison

Former President Donald J. Trump’s social media company jumped on its first day of trading on the Nasdaq on Tuesday, giving the company an estimated market value of close to $8 billion, larger than established corporations like Mattel, Alaska Airlines and Western Union.

The biggest beneficiary of the market action has been Mr. Trump, who owns about 60 percent of Trump Media, making him the largest shareholder. His stake in the company — the parent of Truth Social, the online platform that is Mr. Trump’s main megaphone for reaching supporters and attacking critics — is worth about $4.6 billion on paper.

For many investors, investing is as much as a sign of support for Mr. Trump personally as it is for his relatively small, loss-making social media company, which describes itself as a platform that stands against censorship by Big Tech. Such was the frenzy on Tuesday that trading in Trump Media’s shares was briefly halted by the stock exchange shortly after it opened because of extreme volatility. After gaining as much as 40 percent, the stock eased toward the close, ending the day 16 percent higher.

Trump Media closed its merger with Digital World Acquisition Corporation, a cash-rich public shell company, on Monday.

“We do appreciate President Trump but it’s more about free speech,” said Mark Willis, 63, who lives in Indian Trail, N.C. and has been buying shares in the public shell company that merged with Trump Media ever since the merger plan was proposed in 2021. “We believe this is the only social media platform that is not heavily influenced by the government.”

Scott Lewczak, a graphic designer in Nokesville, Va., and another longtime shareholder, said he is going to make money on the big surge in the price of Trump Media, but that is not the point. He said his investment was to support Truth Social and Mr. Trump.

“Even if I lose every penny, I will fight to the end,” Mr. Lewczak said.

The investors who have piled into the stock of Digital World, and now Trump Media, have tended to be individuals, rather than investment firms and hedge funds.

By most traditional measures, Trump Media’s valuation is inordinately high. The company took in just $3.3 million in revenue during the first nine months of last year, all from advertising on Truth Social, and recorded a loss of $49 million.

That means Trump Media’s market value is nearly 2,000 times its estimated annual revenue. Investors sometimes assign lofty valuations to small, loss-making companies in anticipation of rapid growth — or a belief that other investors will continue to bid up a company’s shares, for whatever reason — but typically not on this scale.

Other social media companies trade at far smaller price-to-sales ratios than Trump Media: Reddit is around 10, Meta is 7 and Snap is 6, according to FactSet. High-flying tech stocks like the chipmakers Nvidia and ARM trade at price-to-sales ratios of about 25.

On a message board on Truth Social, created by supporters of the merger, some of these investors cheered on the stock-market debut of Trump Media.

“If anyone deserves to be a trillionaire, it is Donald J Trump,” one poster said. “Never bet against a billionaire with over a hundred million supporters who are determined to fix America and preserve freedom for all” said another.

Chad Nedohin, 40, who has been a vocal supporter of the merger on Truth Social, said in an interview that most people buying Trump Media’s stock are not focused on the valuation of the company but making sure Truth Social remains viable.

“You are looking at people who are investors and not traders,” said Mr. Nedohin, who lives in Canada and works as an engineer and a Christian worship leader. “We are seeing long-term holders who are MAGA and they are Trump’s base.”

Still, based on its trading patterns, Trump Media looks a lot like the so-called meme stocks — GameStop, AMC Entertainment and others — that were propelled to dizzying heights by armies of amateur investors during the pandemic. Meme stocks tend to trade more on emotion than fundamentals.

“It’s difficult to say how this will trade, but it definitely has the DNA of a meme stock, so we might see some extreme volatility,” said Kristi Marvin, a former investment banker and editor of SPACInsider, which gathers data on the market for special purpose acquisition companies.

Trump Media’s prospects met with skepticism on popular investment boards on the social media platform Reddit. “Do people really dare to buy this stock?” asked one poster.

Many of the publicly listed holders of the stock, with most filings dating to the end of 2023, are retail investment advisers who help facilitate trading on behalf of individual clients, and those contacted by The New York Times were broadly unwilling to express a view on Trump Media themselves.

“Our typical advice to our clients is that you are best owning a diversified portfolio,” said Kevin Grogan, chief investment officer for Buckingham Wealth Partners.

Digital World was founded as a special purpose acquisition company. The sole purpose of a SPAC is to raise money from investors and then merge with an operating business, which then becomes the publicly traded entity.

Any big investors that bought shares of Digital World or Trump Media would not be required to publicly disclose their holdings until the middle of May. Some big investors have shorted, or bet against, Trump Media shares, on the assumption that the company cannot continue to trade at such a heady price.

Trump Media, according to S3 Partners, a financial data company, is now the most shorted company to merge with a SPAC in the United States.

The merger between Trump Media and Digital World this week was completed as Mr. Trump faced a deadline to secure a bond to cover a big penalty imposed by a judge in a civil fraud case. But in a break for Mr. Trump, an appellate court reduced the amount that he would need to post, to $175 million from $454 million, and gave him more time to raise the money.

The appellate court’s action seemed to ease the pressure on Mr. Trump to try to tap his newfound Trump Media wealth. To do so, he would need the company’s new seven-member board to remove a restriction that prevents him from selling shares or using shares as collateral for six months.

The board may still vote to loosen that restriction if that is what Mr. Trump wants. He holds tremendous sway over the company: Besides owning about 60 percent of Trump Media’s stock, he owns a separate class of shares that gives him at least 55 percent voting power over any measure presented for a shareholder vote. And the company’s seven-member board is stacked with loyalists, including his eldest son, Donald Trump Jr.

But now that Mr. Trump no longer faces an urgent need to raise a large amount of cash, he might be content to let the six-month restriction on selling shares remain. From Mr. Trump’s perspective, the surging price of Trump Media’s shares gives him bragging rights on the campaign trail. One of his political calling cards has been to talk about his success as a businessman and his enormous wealth — something that’s easier for him to do since the merger.

The bigger challenge for Trump Media’s board is coming up with a strategy to increase the company’s business and expand the reach of Truth Social in order to justify the company’s valuation. Truth Social is a relative minnow in the social media universe and largely dependent on Mr. Trump’s posts for drawing traffic.

In merging with Digital World, Trump Media got a badly needed infusion of roughly $300 million in cash that Digital World had raised from investors. Without that infusion, Trump Media and Truth Social were looking at potentially shutting down.

And as a public company, Trump Media will be required to file periodic financial reports with the Securities and Exchange Commission and reveal in detail any deals it may strike with Mr. Trump.

“In a public company you have the scrutiny now of investors and regulators,” said Usha Rodrigues, a professor of corporate law at the University of Georgia School of Law. “Any stockholder now has standing to bring a lawsuit if they claim one of the company’s statements is misleading.”

Matthew Goldstein covers Wall Street and white-collar crime and housing issues. More about Matthew Goldstein

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• Victor Mukhin

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Investor boost for Moscow Metro brings new line and less gridlock

For the first time Moscow Metro management is looking to attract private investors to build a new subway line in the east of the city. Several Russian and foreign companies are already lining up to take part in a project.

The Chief Executive of the Moscow Metro Igor Besedin says negotiations are underway with a Spanish investor.  The companies are interested in developing both underground and above ground with retail and other services offered to passengers. The first private line with 9 stations stretching 19 km would be the longest subway line built in recent years.  Its cost could be about $3.2 billion, according to the Russian consulting firm FBK. The new line leading from Aviamotornaya station to Lyubertsy fields should be completed by 2015.  Moscow has a serious traffic problem, and authorities think a new subway line will help reduce the gridlock. Currently the city has 300km of underground railway split across 12 lines with 182 stations. About 7 million people use the Moscow Metro every day. Moscow Metro system has no privately owned lines yet, but the Mykinino station in the west of Moscow was built by a private investor. Private subway lines are common in big cities all over the world. Private lines operate in Tokyo and in London.

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Invitation to presentation of the first quarter 2024 interim report

Nelly Group will publish it's first quarter interim report 2024 on Friday 26 April at 08 a.m. CEST. Analysts, investors and media are invited to a conference call the same day at 09 a.m. CEST.

The conference call will be held in English and hosted by Helena Karlinder-Östlundh CEO and Niklas Lingblom CFO.

Note : It is only possible to ask questions in writing (not by phone). To submit questions you want answered after the presentation, please use the link below. It is possible to submit written questions both before and during the broadcast.

Link to webcast: https://nelly.videosync.fi/2024-04-26-q1

To listen to the Q1 report by phone, the following callin details are available:

• Finland: +358 9 4245 0972
• Sweden: +46 8 525 07003
• United Kingdom: +44 20 7043 5048
• United States: +1 (774) 450-9900

Conference ID: 100400 #

User ID: 73390#

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Our unique proposition and proven business model utilise technology and economies of scale to provide a great value member experience, whilst also delivering strong financial returns.

• Market-leading low cost gym experience drives growth in membership base
• Significant advantages from scale-efficient model: operations, technology, brand and marketing
• With scale we can achieve strong financial returns which enable reinvestment to drive further growth

Our strategy is to deliver sustained growth from free cash flow and the Next Chapter growth plan is focused on how we will deliver this, within the highly resilient and growing market that is health and fitness.

OUR 'NEXT CHAPTER' FUTURE STRATEGY

We have built the solid foundations of many high-performing gyms and have identified the growth drivers that will deliver increased returns in our existing estate, as well as underpin the attractive returns we will drive from our new sites.

The first initiative for this plan is yield and revenue management. Taking analysis from Simon-Kucher (quantitative pricing experts) we see that our members and the members of other low cost gyms ascribe a higher value to their gym membership than they currently pay. We remain on average around £2 per month cheaper than our closest competitors and we aim to continue to narrow that pricing gap, whilst remaining great value, as well as improving yield. We will do this by focusing on more profitable promotions and increasing the penetration of our premium Ultimate membership.

Secondly, we want to maximise returns from member acquisition. The primary choice factor for joining a gym is convenience, and 80% of our membership base lives within three miles of their gym. Within the catchment area of our existing estate, there remains a potential additional circa 5 million people in our target age range who are not currently a member of one of our gyms. We will therefore geo-target our marketing activity to focus on the places where our sites are, and focus messaging on the key drivers of choice – convenient location, great equipment and affordable price. We’ll harness advertising technology and data science to optimise returns on this marketing investment and strategy.

Thirdly we have an organisational focus on retention. Whilst our flexible no-contract model remains an important factor of the attractiveness of our proposition, by improving retention we will drive both yield and membership volume. Focusing on the ‘early life’ of a new member and starting with the way they are acquired; we will use data analytics to determine which promotional offers have the best retention rates. We are then focused on helping members to build lasting habits, whether that’s via our expert teams in the gyms or through digital channels like our App, which we will continue to invest in as channel for engagement, information, encouragement and ultimately retention.

Across these and other related initiatives, we will drive like-for- like growth through our existing estate, which will help to improve returns and generate more cash to reinvest in expansion.

Disciplined rollout of high quality and high-returning sites will deliver attractive returns and create significant value for shareholders. There is analysis from PwC that shows that the UK potential opportunity is for between 600 and 850 additional sites in the low cost gym segment over the next 10-15 years. We have worked to clearly identify the key characteristics of high-returning sites and Greater London and urban residential gym locations deliver the best returns for the Group. We are targeting 30% Return on Invested Capital (‘ROIC’) for the Group’s new site pipeline, with an ambition to open circa 50 new sites over the next three years.

The successful execution of the first two components of the Next Chapter plan will create further options to ‘Broaden our growth’ for the mid and long term. We will continue to make a strategic assessment of these options which may include further developments to our existing proposition; format innovation; investigating new channels to market; and introducing new adjacent revenue streams to complement our existing business.

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