globalization promotes world peace and unity essay

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The Relationship Between Globalization and Peace

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Published: Jun 20, 2019

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Does Globalization Bring War or Peace?

By P. R. Goldstone *

Do high levels of international trade lead to peace? Norman Angell authored the best-selling book on international politics in history, arguing that economic interdependence between Germany and England made any war between the two unthinkable -- an illusion. His book, The Great Illusion, was translated into 17 languages and sold one million copies; Angell himself won the Nobel Peace Prize. Unfortunately, within a few years of publication, Britain and Germany eagerly threw themselves into the abyss of the First World War. The analytic literature on the Commercial Peace is much less robust than scholarship on the Democratic Peace, the latter positing the improbability of war between democracies. The Commercial Peace literature displays less consistency and theoretical rigor, with precise causes largely untested. Statistical analyses of trade relationships generally find that trade is conducive to peace; however, numerous case studies find that international trade either played no part in particular leaders' decisions about war or prompted them to escalate rather than become dependent on others.

Nonetheless, some patterns emerge. Trade highly concentrated with a single partner correlates with conflict, as does a marked difference in states' respective dependence. At the same time, however, high levels of trade with the aggregate international market correlate with cooperation. The nature of the traded goods matters -- trade in commodities with substantial strategic applications (e.g., oil or high-tech capital equipment) is most conducive to conflict. Most important, high levels of economic exchange act as an accelerant: extensive trade enhances either cooperation or conflict. The implication is that specific outcomes are contingent on economic interdependence's interaction with some domestic institutional factor: states' strategic response to global market forces will vary according to their internal political-societal composition.

Economic Sectors and Foreign Policy A growing body of research indicates that the domestic institutions and dominant sectoral coalitions of the trading nations determine the effect of economic interdependence on states' foreign policy. Put simply, international trade has distributional consequences, producing relative winners and losers in each society, affecting these groups' foreign policy preferences. When constituencies advantaged by global markets dominate the political system, national policy will favor conciliation and multilateral cooperation -- including when the median voter is both politically empowered and gains from trade. On the other hand, when groups uncompetitive in global exchanges have the power to turn their sectoral preferences into the "national interest," the state will likely pursue a foreign policy of confrontation and the unilateral quest for advantage. Imperial Japan, for example, actually had a higher level of economic interdependence than did its 1920s democratic predecessor, but nonetheless embarked on aggressive imperialism. Two other sectoral characteristics of the dominant political coalition can determine state response to economic interdependence. Sectors have different exposure to parts of the global economy: some sectors' major markets are the core countries of the world economic system (the wealthiest and most powerful states); others, however, are linked tightly to the global economic periphery (the poorer, less stable states); others still depend on the domestic market and have no interest in paying for active foreign policies of any type. Sectors reliant on the core will favor cooperation with other Great Powers to ensure continued access to these rich markets. Those tied to fixed investments or key markets in the roiling periphery will favor aggressive policies to project state power into these zones, creating spheres of influence. Finally, sectors differ in their benefit from public expenditures on military power: some (the classic "military-industrial complex") can expect lucrative long-term contracts, while others can only expect to foot the fiscal bill.

At any given level of economic interdependence, a state dominated by political affiliates of globally uncompetitive, periphery-linked, security-spending advantaged sectors will pursue a more expansionist and confrontational policy than a state led by actors from globally competitive sectors whose markets are internal or in the core and that make minimal gains from defense spending. Wilhelmine Germany embodied the first type of state due to its notorious coalition of "Iron and Rye" -- the dual dominance of the corporate chieftains of heavy industry and the agrarian Prussian officer-aristocrats. A striking example of the second type of state, led by a political coalition of finance and export-oriented industry, is 1920s Japan, which embraced conciliatory multilateralism. When these sectoral differences coincide with partisan cleavages, struggles over foreign policy can hinge on fundamental strategy, as in the 1930s' debate in the United States over isolationism versus engagement. All else being equal, cooperative and multilateral security policies will likely encourage peace, while confrontational and unilateral policies are more likely to lead to conflict. Beyond this, globalization influences the ways these policies may interact in specific instances.

Many hope trade will constrain or perhaps pacify a rising China, resurgent Russia, and proliferation-minded Iran, as it well may. Nonetheless, any prudent analysis must incorporate caveats drawn from states' particular political economy of security policy. In non-democratic states, however important global markets may be to the economy in aggregate, elites will be most sensitive to sectoral interests of their specific power base. This mismatch can cause systematic distortions in their ability to interpret other states' strategic signals correctly when genuine conflicts of interest emerge with a nation more domestically constrained. Leadership elites drawn from domestic-oriented, uncompetitive, or non-tradable constituencies will tend to discount deterrent signals sent by trading partners whose own domestic institutions favor those commerce-oriented interests, believing such interests make partners less likely to fulfill their threats. For example, one reason the BJP government of India decided to achieve an open nuclear weapons capability was that its small-business, domestic-oriented heart constituency was both less vulnerable to trade sanctions and less willing to believe that the US would either impose or long sustain such sanctions, given its own increased economic interests in India. Sometimes, deterrent signals may not be sent at all, since one nation's governing coalition may include commerce-dependent groups whose interests prevent state leaders from actually undertaking necessary balancing responses or issuing potent signals of resolve in the first place; the result can be fatally muddled strategy and even war -- as witness the series of weak attempts before the First World War by finance-dominated Britain to deter "Iron and Rye"-dominated Germany.

The emergence of truly global markets makes it all the less plausible under most circumstances that a revisionist state will be unable to find some alternative source of resources or outlet for its goods. Ironically, the more the international economy resembles a true global marketplace rather than an oligopolistic economic forum, the less likely it would appear that aggressors must inevitably suffer lasting retaliatory cut-offs in trade. There will always be someone else with the capability to buy and sell.

Peaceful Relations in a Globalized World American policymakers should beware claims of globalization's axiomatic pacifying effects. Trade creates vested interests in peace, but these interests affect policy only to the extent they wield political clout. In many of the states whose behavior we most wish to alter, such sectors -- internationalist, export-oriented, reliant on global markets -- lack a privileged place at the political table. Until and unless these groups gain a greater voice within their own political system, attempts to rely on the presumed constraining effects of global trade carry substantially greater risk than commonly thought. A few examples tell much. Quasi-democratic Russia is a state whose principal exposure to global markets lies in oil, a commodity whose considerable strategic coercive power the Putin regime freely invokes. The oil sector has effectively merged with the state, making Russia's deepening ties to the global economy a would-be weapon rather than an avenue of restraint. Russian economic liberalization without political liberalization is unlikely to pay the strong cooperative dividends many expect. China will prove perhaps the ultimate test of the Pax Mercatoria. The increasing international Chinese presence in the oil and raw materials extraction sectors would seem to bode ill, given such sectors' consistent history elsewhere of urging state use of threats and force to secure these interests. Much will come down to the relative political influence of export-oriented sectors heavily reliant on foreign direct investment and easy access to the vast Western market versus the political power of their sectoral opposites: uncompetitive state-owned enterprises, energy and mineral complexes with important holdings in the global periphery, and a Chinese military that increasingly has become a de facto multi-sectoral economic-industrial conglomerate. Actions to bolster the former groups at the expense of the latter would be effort well spent.

At home, as even advanced sectors feel the competitive pressures of globalization, public support for internationalism and global engagement will face severe challenges. As more sectors undergo structural transformation, the natural coalitional constituency for committed global activist policy will erode; containing the gathering backlash will require considerable leadership. Trade can indeed be a palliative; too often, however, we seem to think of economic interdependence as a panacea; the danger is that in particular instances it may prove no more than a placebo.

About the Author: P. R. Goldstone is a PhD candidate in the Department of Political Science and a member of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He is a non-resident research fellow at the Center for Peace and Security Studies, Georgetown University.

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Unity with diversity: The challenge of globalization

By: Alberto M. Piedra
October 21, 2005

Introduction

There is no doubt that the world of today is, in many ways, radically different from the years that preceded the First World War. The so-called “Pax Britanica”, which basically prevailed from the Congress of Vienna until the summer of 1914, came to an abrupt end with the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand the fateful morning of June 28 in Sarajevo. A century of relative peace and tranquility had concluded only to be followed by one that witnessed one of the greatest man-made calamities that the civilized world had ever known.

Most, if not all, of the basic unwritten codes of behaviour and chivalry, which prevailed in the pre World I decades, were ignored or openly rejected by the new generation of statesmen and politicians who, in general, were guided by unprecedented selfish motivations that relied heavily on whipped up mass emotions. The wave of optimism that prevailed in the nineteenth century set in motion a series of idealistic concepts that, it was believed, would guarantee peace, prosperity and ever increasing standards of living for humanity. The sought for fruits of the Enlightenment, with its stress on the power of reason, experimental knowledge and man’s unlimited capacity for continual progress, seemed to have been realized as Europe and the North America continents advanced rapidly in technological and scientific development.

As professor David Fromkin stated in his book Europe’s Last Summer: “At the start of the twentieth century Europe was at the peak of human accomplishment.In industry, technology, and science it had advanced beyond all previous societies. In wealth, knowledge and power it exceeded any civilization that ever had existed”.[1] The roaring guns of August 1914 shattered the optimistic forecasts of the overly confident Europeans.Suddenly it became apparent that a European diplomacy based on the balance of power, elaborated by the British and which had lasted for 200 years, had been dismantled and, as Kissinger wrote in his book Diplomacy was reshaped “into a cold-blooded game of power politics”.[2]

As a result, the most devastating fratricidal war that the world had ever known ravaged for four years not only the peaceful fields of Europe but also the far off lands of other continents. President Woodrow Wilson, one of the main Big Four signatories of the Treaty of Versailles, was convinced that the European balance-of-power system was, to a large degree, responsible for the Great War.[3] He firmly believed that the international order that preceded the war was a system of organized rivalries. The American President proposed that there should be: “…not a balance of power, but a community of power; not organized rivalries but, but an organized common peace”.[4] This new concept later became known as “collective security”.

To institutionalize this idea, Wilson put forward the League of Nations, a quintessentially American institution. As Kissinger reminds us: “America disdained the concept of the balance of power and considered the practice of Realpolitik immoral. America’s criteria for international order were democracy, collective security, and self determination – none of which had undergirded any previous European settlement”.[5] The Wilsonian dream that the interests of all peace loving democracies, united under the patronage of the League of Nations, would never conflict with the legitimate goals of humanity, proved to be totally unrealistic. Lloyd George went along with Wilson’s idea of the League of Nations but the League never caught his imagination.

Perhaps, according to Margaret Macmillan, professor of History at the University of Toronto: “…because he doubted whether it could ever be truly effective”.[6] General Smuts, the South African foreign minister, although an admirer of Wilson’s idealism and plans for universal freedom and justice, had other motivations in his outspoken support of the American President. As Macmillan comments: “What Smuts said less loudly was that the League of Nations could also be useful to the British Empire”.[7]

In spite of the optimistic expectations of many of the “peacemakers”, who participated in the Paris Peace Conference of 1919, the stormy clouds of conflict were gathering anew as the rumors of war increased in intensity during the decade of the thirties. The League of Nations, which was supposed to put an end to all wars and bring peace and justice to all nations, proved to be totally ineffectual in the face of the rising power of Hitler’s Germany and the brutal regime of Soviet Russia, not to mention Japan’s imperial objectives in Asia.

The League of Nations had a short life. Before the decade of the thirties had ended three of the major powers, Germany, Italy and Japan, had abandoned the conference halls of Geneva and, for all practical purposes, the international institution so dear to Wilson, had ceased to exist. The first of September 1939, Hitler’s Wehrmacht ruthlessly invaded Poland, causing the start of the Second World War. Millions of people were slaughtered around the world, both military and civilian, during the lengthy and horrendous conflagration.

With the end of the war, the victorious allies began to make plans for the future; a future which would include the formation of a new international organization that would, among other things, keep the peace, promote democratic agendas and foster human rights and the right to self determination. The Declaration on Human Rights that took place in San Francisco in 1944 paved the way for the creation of the United Nations (UN), an international organization which was supposed to avoid the pitfalls of the former League of Nations and carry out the high ideals of its original Charter. President Franklin D. Roosevelt had already promised on December 8, 1941 that the United States was going not only to win the war but also the peace that was to follow. Many were convinced that international cooperation, the self-determination of peoples and collective security would guarantee the future peace of the victorious “democratic” nations of the world. However, even though America entered the war with the expectation that the defeat of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan would usher in a new world order of peace and justice, events proved otherwise.It was a renewed form of a Wilsonian dream that did not materialize.

The threat of totalitarianism, under the banner of Soviet Communism, was basically ignored by the allies, including the United States. The world had entered into a new era, better known as the Cold War. It was soon realized that Roosevelt’s promise that the Western alliance was going to win the peace was not materializing. To meet the new challenge of Soviet power, a policy of containment was introduced. It was supposed to do what the UN was unable to do: meet the communist threat without the need for war.[8]

America undoubtedly had become the major world power. This became even more evident after the collapse of the Soviet empire. The policy of containment was no longer relevant. Thus, America moved towards one of “messianic globalism” which simply stated meant that America had a major goal to play in world affairs: reach out to help other nations share in the American dream. A policy of “messianic globalism” went much farther than Wilson’s ideal that the world should be made safe for democracy. The aim was and still is “to make the world democracy”.[9]

The world is rapidly changing. The technological and scientific changes that occurred since the end of the Second World War surprised even the most innovative minds at the turn of the twenty-first century. The new millennium ushered in innovative measures that in many ways simplified the lives of the average person but, at the same time, created challenges that cannot be left unanswered. Perhaps the most immediate one is the challenge of “globalization”. The world has become “smaller”, and distances “shorter” in what appears to be a shrinking planet. The innovative advances in the area of communications are revolutionizing the relationships between nations and peoples of different cultures and values. A new world order is in the making in which developed and less developed countries are becoming more and more politically and economically integrated under, what some experts believe, might well turn out to be a supra-national state.[10]

This paper will discuss a few crucial issues related to “globalization”. We shall try to determine whether the process of “globalization”, as some experts claim, will redound to the benefit of the world at large or, on the contrary, will do more harm than good. The author fully understands the complexity of these issues and the fact that they require a much deeper analysis than the brief comments that are included in this paper. Much has already been written on these subjects so I will limit myself to a brief comment on the impact “globalization” may have on each of the following important issues: 1) the spread of free market economies, 2) the establishment of stable and prosperous democracies, 3) the founding of a new world order with powerful supra-national institutions, 4) the spiritual and cultural traditions of the individual communities and 5) the future of the less developed countries, especially in Latin America.

1. The spread of free market economies

Without going into a full fledged analysis of the free market system which is not the object of this paper, would it be fair to say that a world integrated through the market would be highly beneficial for the vast majority of the world’s inhabitants?

No one will deny that this is a very controversial issue which has been vehemently discussed since the time of Adam Smith and the British Classical School.[11] In more recent times, the reaction of the defenders of socialism and of those who favour protectionist policies, sometimes under the guise of “import substitution for industrialization purposes”, is also well known. However, since the fall of the Soviet Empire and the realization of the disastrous economic failure of socialism, the belief in the advantages of a free economic system has been gaining ground. It is often claimed that a type of “globalization” that fosters free market economies is an excellent tool for the prosperity of the countries in the process of development. Martin Wolf, former economist at the World Bank, believes this to be true. According to him: “The problem today is not that there is too much globalization, but that there is far too little. We can do better with the right mix of more liberal markets and more co-operative global governance.”[12]

Defenders of the free market system have also expressed their reservation as to how “globalization” and economic liberalism can be used by the more powerful nations for purposes which do not necessarily benefit the less developed countries of the world. Joseph Stiglitz, professor of economics at Columbia University, is a firm defender of the free market system and the basic tenets of globalization. However, he has also reservations as to how “globalization” can be used for purposes that do not necessarily foster the development and well being on a world wide scale. “Globalization”, he claims, may be used by the industrialized countries to promote their own economic interests at the expense of the weaker members of the world community. International institutions very often are dominated “…not just by the wealthiest industrial countries but by commercial and financial interests in those countries, and the policies of the institutions naturally reflect this”.[13] Stiglitz has no hesitation in stating the following: “…even when not guilty of hypocrisy, the West has driven the globalization agenda, ensuring that it garners a disproportionate share of the benefits, at the expense of the developing world”.[14]

2. The establishment of stable and prosperous democracies

Another controversial point that is worth considering is the relationship between “globalization” and democracy. Does “globalization” promote democracy through the mediating effect of economic and social development or, on the contrary, does it destabilize the country, producing chaos rather than democracy? Is “globalization” being used by powerful trans-national corporations, primarily, to promote their own selfish interests and constrain the exercise of national sovereignties? There is no doubt that the process of “globalization” implies that an action by one nation will most certainly have consequences that will affect the status-quo of other states with which they have close relationships. Not all economists, as in the case of Stiglitz, are of the opinion that the process of “globalization” and the establishment of liberal economic systems will necessarily have a positive effect on other nations and accelerate the process of democratization. Contrary to the views of Stiglitz, the Indian economist Jagdish Bhagwati rejects the potential negative effects of globalization and insists that evidence supports the fact that: “…globalization leads to prosperity, and prosperity in turn leads to democratization of politics with the rise of the middle class”.[15]

The well known author Francis Fukuyama maintained in his book The End of History and the Last Man that the gradual collapse of totalitarian states of both right and left led to the establishment of prosperous and stable liberal democracies.[16] He even proclaimed “the end of history”: liberalism had triumphed over the forces of evil. For Fukuyama, liberal democracy was the only way to run an advanced economy and society. The benefits of liberal democracies and free market economies were to be spread more widely. Does this imply that global economic integration and the spread of democratic and free market principles around the globe (globalism) can serve as a blueprint for a new world order? Do these ideas reflect an idealism that in many ways resembles the Wilsonian dream of a League of Nations, an organization that would guarantee a peaceful and prosperous world free of national wars? Is globalism another form of optimistic idealism, such as the one held by Roosevelt towards the end of World War II?

The American President again placed great confidence in the formation of new international organizations devoted to the creation of a new “world order of democratic nations”. The principles of self determination, collective security, economic growth and development, and the defense of human rights were to be protected and promoted by international institutions, such as what later became known as the United Nations, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and other “global” or worldwide associations. The economic aspects of “globalization” acquired new significance after the debacle of World War II. In Europe the early European Economic Community (EEC) was supported by many European statesmen in their hopes of reaching, in the longer run, a greater continental political union.[17] Something similar, but with a lesser degree of success, occurred in other continents, especially in Latin America.

3. The founding of a new world order with powerful supra-national institutions

It is amply recognized that international or supra-national organizations are playing an increasing role in this new era of globalization. The creation of the International Court of Justice is only one example of this trend in international affairs. The problem, as we shall mention later, is to determine how these institutions will affect the sovereignties of the participating nations.

It is a two-edged sword that sovereign nations will have to reckon with because once they place their trust in the supra-national institutions they will have to surrender some of their traditional rights. Perhaps one of the best examples of a regional attempt toward unification is the European Union (EU) with its centralized power structure in Brussels.One of the major hurdles that the EU still has to overcome – if it can be done at all – is the reduction of all decision making, now concentrated in a heavily bureaucratic leadership (the Commission) in Brussels, to a level which is more in accordance with the principle of subsidiarity. The views and opinions of the different integrating nationalities should have a greater voice in the decision making process. As we shall see later, this should apply in a very special way with respect to the religious and cultural traditions of the member states.

In spite of its common Judeo-Christian heritage, the EU has traveled a bumpy road in its path towards the creation of a united Europe. Little mention – if at all – is made of Christianity’s great and unique contribution to European civilization. Furthermore, at present there is still no definitive agreement in areas as important as monetary and agricultural policies not to mention, among others, fiscal issues, including the delicate question of migratory policies. A point of discord that has not been resolved concerns the approval and ratification of the future constitution. The Europeans, and rightly so, seem to have grave reservations as to the position Brussels holds with respect to important social and cultural issues.

The success of the union will depend not only on the righteousness and good intentions of the participating member states but also, and above all, on the good faith of the EU leaders. The national sovereignty of the independent states and their cultural, social and religious backgrounds are assets that should not be abandoned or changed easily. The cultural and religious diversity of the member countries must be respected by the centralized powers in Brussels.[18] Otherwise, all attempts toward greater unification will probably fail but, what is even more serious, will violate the basic rights of each person or group to preserve their own particular identities. The idea of Europe implies the recognition of such a common heritage. Its rejection will destroy the only hope for a moral and spiritual integration of the various European nationalities.

The trend toward increased integration and “globalization” is a reality that cannot be ignored. But the notion of the need for the creation of a new world order with its own supra-national institutions is gaining in strength. During the last two centuries strong movements have developed that support the idea of creating a new world order which would integrate different nationalities and cultures into a powerful centralized state. According to the proponents of such an idea world peace and justice would be better preserved if the future were placed in the hands of powerful states.[19]

Socialism, by its very nature, tends toward the centralization of power. Thus, it can prepare more easily the way toward a totalitarian state, not infrequently under the guise of democratic ideals. Let us not forget that for Marx and Engels, the glorification of power is a goal in itself. As Hayek reminds us when referring to collectivism: “…in order to achieve their end, collectivists must create power- power over men wielded by other men – of a magnitude never before known, and that their success will depend on the extent to which they achieve their power.”[20]

But the danger of an excessive centralization of power and its consequent abuses is not limited to socialism. It can also be found among powerful monopolistic business and trade union groups that have no hesitation in manipulating the laws of supply and demand when it favours their own egotistic interests.

The idea of creating a world state, as the well known German economist Roepke tells us, is “not merely a Utopia, nor even a harmless one at that, it also contains some false reasoning. It derives from the oversimplified idea that the degree of political and economic unity mankind needs is entirely incompatible with national sovereignty.” Even today, many years after Roepke wrote this statement at the height of the Cold War, it is difficult to conceive of a one world order when there still remain wide and conflicting philosophical and religious divisions that separate the so called Western World not only from other civilizations but also from the inner divisions that plague it from the inside; divisions that have given ground to the belief in the inevitability of a clash of civilizations and/or the demise and final collapse of Western civilization as it is commonly understood.

4.The spiritual and cultural traditions of the individual countries

The process of “globalization”, if it is to be successful should not be limited to the economy. As borders tend to disappear and the mobility of the factors of production become more flexible, the trend towards “globalization” brings with it also a gradual but progressive unification of society, both socially and culturally.[21] This trend is not bad in itself but it carries with it two main risks: the potential loss of cultural diversity and the danger of a disproportionate centralization of power. The cry for unity, which is often heard in academic circles and international organizations, should not overshadow the notion of diversity. This applies in a particular way to the area of culture.

The legitimate social and cultural traditions of the diverse nationalities should be preserved. Thomas L. Friedman, the Pulitzer Prize-winning foreign affairs columnist for the New York Times has warned about the dangers of globalization uprooting cultures. He says the following: “the more I observed the system of globalization at work, the more obvious it was that it had unleashed forest-crushing forces of development and Disney round the clock homogenization, which, if left unchecked, had the potential to destroy the environment and uproot cultures at a pace never before seen in human history”.[22]

Culture, as professor Sophia Aguirre insists, “is not an addition to the individual’s right but it is intrinsically united to the freedom of each person. At the same time, it is not right to suppress an individual’s right with the aim of protecting the cultural identity of a group”.[23] Problems related to cultural identity are being faced by governments and international organizations in many parts of the world. In Europe, the United States and other developed countries the task of integrating people from different cultures and backgrounds into more unified entities is not an easy one. This is especially true in the area of immigration as recent events in the developed countries have demonstrated. Increased efforts, geared toward a greater level of respect for the large variety of existing nationalities and cultures, are needed. These, in their turn, must be aware and recognize the advantages that, if properly carried out, can be derived from integration. Integrating or globalization policies that are not tailored to these realities can do more harm than good.

A healthy cultural diversity must be respected if the process of “globalization” is to succeed. The biggest threat to cultural diversity is likely to come “from all the anonymous, transnational, homogenizing, standardizing market forces and technologies that make up today’s globalizing economic system”.[24] This threat is aggravated with the rise and under the aegis of powerful international organizations. The trend toward an ever increasing and overwhelming centralization can only make things worse. It can easily contribute to the destruction of the remaining vestiges of individual culture and identity. The positive effects of a healthy diversity would be lost. The process of “massification” so much feared by Ortega y Gasset and Roepke would become a distinct reality.

5. “Globalization”: the case of Latin America

It is firmly believed by some experts that only the transnational corporations and the already super-rich will reap the benefits of “globalization” and, in a particular way, of free trade arrangements. They claim that the gap between rich and poor has been increasing rather than decreasing.[25] They further claim that the industrialized countries are trying to introduce “a uniform world wide development model that faithfully reflect the Western corporate vision and serves corporate interests”.[26]

They go as far as claiming that the North American Free Trade Association (NAFTA) and the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) are mere instruments of American foreign policy.[27] They are used, so these critics claim, as useful means to subjugate, exploit and “colonize” the less developed countries of the southern hemisphere. It is only fair to accept constructive criticism of free trade arrangements. It is perfectly understandable that, under certain circumstances, free trade may not be the most appropriate policy to be carried out by countries in the process of development. Protectionist measures may have to be implemented at the early stages of development.

The United States, among other countries, practiced protectionism in the nineteenth century, when it was building up its powerful industrial base. As mentioned earlier, the British also defended protectionist policies – i.e. the Corn Laws – when they believed they favoured the nation’s economic interests. However, overall, few people will not deny the multiple advantages that can be derived from the implementation of well thought out free trade policies. Countries in the early stages of development have also enjoyed the benefits of free trade. By opening their markets in an orderly way they have been able to attain rates of economic growth that a few years earlier would have seemed impossible. South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore can be taken as examples.

Something totally different to a healthy criticism of “globalization” and free trade policies is the attitude taken by countries such as Cuba and Venezuela.Both of these countries have attacked violently the very concept of “globalization”, especially with respect to the American sponsored FTAA. Nevertheless, their criticism of neo-liberalism and in particular of the FTAA is more political than economic. Their prime objective is the rejection of Western traditional moral values that emphasize political and economic freedom. To use critical arguments against the FTAA exclusively for political purposes is not only unfair but, in the long run, harmful to the interests of the Latin American communities. Scholarly criticism is one thing but a political vendetta against a neighbouring country is another matter which needs to be analyzed more carefully.

Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez, in accordance with Cuba’s Fidel Castro, apparently has taken the initiative in a campaign to discredit the FTAA and accuse the United States of old fashioned imperialism. He proclaims the ongoing talks as dead and “condemns the FTAA as an imperialist plot headed by the United States in order to dominate all of Latin America”.[28]Chavez has described the FTAA as a great threat and, as a result, the Chavez-Castro alliance was formalized in 2004 by the signing of the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (BAA).

This arrangement cannot be dismissed lightly. It is an event of geopolitical importance with significant ramifications for the United States and the whole of the Western Hemisphere. The objective of the BAA, the antithesis of a world integrated through the market place to revitalize the economies of both countries and create a common barter zone throughout Latin America and the Caribbean – in accordance with their own interpretation of “globalization”. This way they can advance “the principles of socialism throughout the region and counterbalance the United States as the super power of historic dominance in the hemisphere with a new correlation of forces comprised of China, India, Russia and Brazil, where the Peoples Republic of China predominates”.[29] Chavez furthermore claims that he has forged an alliance with Argentina, Brazil and Havana in their struggle against neo-liberalism and the U.S. led imperialistic agenda.[30]

It is ironic that Cuba, a country that has suffered so acutely under socialist policies, should place herself at the side of a populist regime such as the one sponsored by Chavez whose regime most surely will also end in political and economic catastrophe. What Cuba and other Latin American countries need are socially adjusted economic policies which stress political and economic freedoms that will redound to the benefit of all sectors of society. This, in our opinion, is the only way for economic growth to take place. Latin America is at a critical crossroads. The impact of globalization in the case of Latin America will depend more upon the course taken by its political leaders, as to the alternative economic models chosen.[31]

The future free economic system that hopefully will be established in Cuba must be based on a solid juridical and ethical foundation, if corruption, the plague of many political regimes particularly in the developing nations, is to be avoided. It is important to emphasize that corruption – the Achilles heel of the less developed countries – is not going to be solved by more government intervention.

As Dr. Samuel Gregg, Director of Research at the Acton Institute tells us: “If the grip of corruption is to be broken, it does not require the creation of more state officials to police (and perhaps exacerbate) the problem. It requires genuine change in the hearts of people and the moral culture of entire societies”.[32]

Conclusions

The new millennium that has just started has placed renewed faith in the bounties to be derived from “globalization” and the creation of ever more powerful supra-national institutions. A new world order is in the making which, it is believed, will put an end to the old national rivalries, even if it is done at the expense of the “old fashioned” national sovereignties. The goal of many an “expert” is to reach a higher level of unification among the various countries and regions of the world under the aegis of competent technocrats supported by a large number of bureaucrats. A greater level of political and economic unity is desired with the expectation that, as a result, a new era of peace and tranquility will follow.

Once again, man has a tendency to be carried away by unattainable goals of universal peace and tranquility disregarding his own frailties and the reality that surrounds him. It is useless to build utopian ideals with false promises or at least false expectations of a better world when the soul of each individual is negatively affected by unrelenting selfishness, greed and love of power. The moral, intellectual, political, economic and social disorder of our contemporary society is not conducive toward the creation of an ideal international order, whether we call it a “new world order” or otherwise.

To ignore the disorders that permeate modern society instead of trying to remedy them will only aggravate the crisis and make futile any attempt to create healthy international order. As Roepke keeps reminding us: “Is it not starting to build the house with the roof if we subscribe to a falsely understood internationalism, and should not the foundations come first? What can be expected from international conferences and conventions under such circumstances? Is it not the same old paper-rustling and clap-trap that the world has grown sick of during the last two decades?”[33] Once again the United Nations and other international organizations such as, for example, the International Court of Justice can be given as examples of institutions that have failed to meet the trust placed in them by the public in general. As purveyors of peace and general well-being, as well as protectors of the most elementary human rights, they have not been very successful. Examples abound.[34] The lack of consensus as to the basic principles that should serve as a guide to their activities makes it very difficult, if not impossible, to reach solutions that meet the standards of justice and equity. The very concept of human rights, for example, has a very different meaning in various parts of the world.

The term itself lends itself to diverse interpretations, depending on different cultural backgrounds but even more often on dissimilar political systems. If difficulties such as these permeate international organizations in our contemporary world, what can we expect from a powerful supra-national organization which lacks a basic common denominator which recognizes not only in theory but in practice the most elemental principle related to the dignity of the human person. A world order, which does not recognize the existence of a natural law and falls into a relativism that does not distinguish between good and evil, is necessarily destined to failure.

The utopian ideals of well meaning statesmen and intellectuals keep appearing in all stages of history. Man in his search for perfection does not cease to rely on unrealistic dreams that fall by the wayside and end up in the dustbin of history. To rely on collectivist policies and the centralization of power in supra-national organizations can only bring future disappointments. If the concept of globalization is used as a pretext for greater centralization and the development of supra-national institutions that in their zeal for unity disregard the value of diversity, then it can truthfully be said that freedom and respect for cultural diversity are in jeopardy. Such an outcome would be a tragedy for all well intentioned peoples who do not wish to abandon or sacrifice their legitimate and traditional cultural values.

However, let us be clear about this, “globalization” is not necessarily a bad thing. On the contrary, it can bring many benefits to society as a whole. If it contributes to the creation of a more unified world where the principles of subsidiarity, solidarity, justice and the traditional moral values are respected, “globalization” can be a welcomed counter balance to the false nationalism of the past; a nationalism which did so much harm during the twentieth century. But as Otto von Habsburg, a former European parliamentarian,said many years ago with reference to the unification of Europe: ” l’Europe doit croitre comme un arbre, pas comme un grate-ciel”.[35]

In the case of Europe, if its spiritual and cultural roots are not preserved, the continent will grow – if it does at all – as an anonymous entity that will lose its past greatness and even its “raison d’etre”. The main concern is to better define and foster the European spirit that expresses the universality of its civilization whilst, at the same time recognizing the wide range of its cultural contributions, its unity and diversity.[36] This same argument can be applied to other integrating movements around the world. Unity yes but it must come together with diversity: this is the only path that will lead towards a healthy unity but always respecting a legitimate diversity. Any attempt to reach a greater level of international unification, whether through social or economic integrating movements, must respect the cultural and spiritual traditions of the participating members.

A false concept of globalization that limits itself to criticism of older international organizations whilst, at the same time, denying or ignoring the reality of human nature can only lead to future disappointments. The lessons learned from the failure of the League of Nations would have served for no purpose whatsoever. It would be pretentious to blame past international organizations and erroneous diplomatic and economic endeavours for the ills of our contemporary societies. The real problem lies not in deficient national and international institutions but in refusing to identify the evils that are rotting the roots of our modern society and are the cause of its political and social disintegration. The cure cannot be found in legislative actions amending past institutions or creating new ones. The crisis is much deeper.

What we are witnessing at the beginning of this new millenium is a renewed crisis of values. Modern man tends to reject or at least ignore the basic tenants of our Judeo-Christian heritage. Exclusive reliance on man’s capabilities to build new societies free of antinomies can only lead to future disappointments. Utopian dreams of new world orders – including those based on democratic principles and free economies – can lead humanity astray. The peacemakers of 1919 were convinced that by modifying and/or building new political and economic structures peace and tranquility would follow. They were wrong, because they forgot the true nature of the human person and his tendency towards evil, whether manifested in the form of excessive political power and/or economic greed. Only by recognizing the truth that man, as Aristotle insisted, must lead a virtuous life if the city-state is to prosper. Otherwise, all sorts of man-devised plans for a better world can meet the same fate of the early Greek city-states and more recently of the premature “happy” expectations which arose from the Treaty of Versailles in 1919 and the Conference of San Francisco in 1949.

Thus, let us hope that “globalization”, whether in the form of a new world order or other types of integrating models, will not end in failure. The reality of Scripture’s Tower of Bable put an end to man’s ambition, not to mention his arrogance, pretending to build a “perfect society” and reach a “heaven on earth” without divine assistance. Modern man should not fall into the same arrogance of his ancient predecessors. For man to work arduously towards the construction of a better world is praiseworthy but, at the same time, he must have sufficient humility to recognize his own frailties and insufficiencies. Let me conclude with a quote from the brilliant German scholar Dietrich von Hildebrand when he warned the modern world with these wise words: “The mark of the present crisis is man’s attempt to free himself from his condition as a created being, to deny his metaphysical situation, to disengage himself from all bonds with anything greater than himself. Man endeavours to build a new Tower of Babel”[37] To disregard Hildebrand’s warning will only bring about further disillusionments and ultimate failures to the men and women of the new millennium.

Ambassador Alberto Martinez Piedra is the Donald E. Bently Professor of Political Economy at the Institute of World Politics.

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[1] David Fromkin, Europe’s Last Summer. ( New York: Alfred A Knopf, 2004 ) p. 17 [2] According to Kissinger: “In the nineteenth century, Metternich’s Austria reconstructed the Concert of Europe and Bismarck’s Germany dismantled it”. See Henry Kissinger, Diplomacy. ( New York: A Touchstone Book, Published by Simon and Schuster, 1994). p.17 [3] The other Big Four signatories of the Treaty of Versailles were Lloyd George, the prime minister of Britain and Georges Clemenceau and Vittorio Orlando, prime ministers of France and Italy respectively.For an excellent book on the Paris Conference of 1919 and its attempt to end all wars see: Margaret Macmillan, PeaceMakers. (London: John Murray, 2002) [4] Woodrow Wilson, Address, January 22, 1917 in Papers of Woodrow Wilson, vol.40, pp. 536-537 [5] Kissinger, op.cit., p.221 [6] Macmillan, op.cit., p. 95 [7] Ibid., p. 98. Margaret Macmillan is the great-grand daughter of David Lloyd George. [8] This policy was associated with the name of George F. Kennan. [9] For an excellent review of American Foreign Policy see: Joshua Muravchik, Exporting Democracy. (Washington D.C.: The AEI Press, 1991). [10] Alberto M. Piedra, Natural Law. (Lanham, MD, Lexington Books, 2004) p. 168 [11] The conflict between the believers in free trade and the defenders of protectionism in XIXth century England is well documented.It gave ground to the debate between Peel and Disraeli with respect to the Corn Lawswhich permitted the import of cheap foodstuffs for the poorer sectors of British society. They were opposedby the agricultural interests. [12] It is true that Wolf does not argue for the replacement of states.He is arguing “for a better understanding by states of their long-run interest in a co-operative global economic order”. See: Martin Wolf, Why Globalization Works. (New Haven:Yale Nota Bene, Yale University Press, 2005) p. xvii. [13] Joseph E. Stiglitz, Globalization and its Discontents. ( New York:W.W. Norton & Company, 2003) p. 19 [14] Ibid., p.7 [15] Jagdish Bhagwati, In Defense of Globalization. (New York: Oxford University Press, 2004) pp. 93-94 [16] Francis Fukuyama, The End of History and the Last Man.(New York; The Free Press, 1992) p.12 [17] The British government was never enthusiastic with the idea of creating the EEC.They favoured the creation of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) or a simple free trade area, much less centralized than its rival the EEC. [18] The former German Chancellor Helmut Kohl once said: “L’unite culturelle de l’Europe, dans toute sa diversite , est le vrai fondement de l’unification europeenne”. [19] According to the French political philosopher Elie Halevy as quoted by Friedrich Hayek: “‘The independence of small nations might mean something to the liberal individualist.It means nothing to collectivists like …the two Webbs and their friend Bernard Shaw.I can still hear Sidney Webb explaining to me that the future belonged to the great administrative nations, where the officials govern and the police keep order’.And elsewhere Halevy quotes George Bernard Shaw, arguing about the same time, that ‘the world is to the big and powerful states by necessity; and the little ones must come within their bordersor be crushed out of existence.'” See: Friedrich von Hayek, The Road to Serfdom. (Chicago: The University of Chicago Press,1944) p.143 [20] Ibid., p. 144 [21] Piedra, op.cit., p. 168 [22] Thomas L. Friedman, The Lexus and the Olive Tree. (New York: Anchor Books, 2000) p. 23. For Friedman, “world affairs today can only be explained as the interaction between what is as new as an Internet Web site and what is as old as a gnarled olive tree on the banks of the river Jordan”. (pp.29-30. He continues: “one reason that the nation state will never disappear, even if it does weaken, is because it is the ultimate olive tree – the ultimate expression of whom we belong to – linguistically, geographically and historically”. (p. 31) Lexus, on the other hand “represents an equally fundamental age-old drive – the drive for sustenance, improvement, prosperity and modernization – as it is played out in today’s globalization system “. (pp. 32-33) [23] Maria Sophia Aguirre, “Multiculturalism in a labour market with integrated economies” in Management Decision (West Yorkshire, England,. MCB University Press, Volume 35, Number 7, 1997) p. 493 [24]Friedman, op.cit., , p. 34 [25] According to two prominent Colombian economists, as a result of globalization, income distribution has improvedworldwide during the last 25 years. However, this is due to the weight carried by China and India.See: Armando Montenegro and Rafael Rivas, Las Piezas del Rompecabezas, desigualdad, pobreza y crecimiento.(Bogota, Colombia: Editora Aguilar, Altea, Taurur, Alfaguara, 2005) p. 32 [26] For a harsh and, very often, biased criticism of globalization see: Jerry Mander, “Facing the Rising Tide” in The Case Against the Global Economy. (Sierra Club Books, San Francisco, 1996. p. 5. The global homogernization of culture, Mander believes, is one of the main principles underlying the global economy. It includes”the idea that all countries – even those whose cultures have been as diverse as, say, Indonesia, Japan, Kenya, Sweden, and Brazil – must sign on to the same global economic model and row their (rising) boats in unison. The net result is monoculture – the global humanization of culture, life style, and level of technological immersion, with the corresponding dismantlement of local traditions and economics. Soon, everyplace will look and feel like everyplace else, with the same restaurants and hotels, the same clothes, the same malls and superstores, and the same streets crowded with cars. There’ll be scarcely a reason to leave home”. Ibid., p.5 [27] Cuba is not a party to the 34 nation FTAA. [28] Ralph J. Galliano, Editor, U.S.-Cuba Policy Report. (Washington DC: Institute for U.S. Cuba Relations.2004) Vol. 11, No.4, April 30, 2004, p.8 [29]Ralph J. Galliano, Editor, U.S. Cuba Policy Report. (Washington DC: Institute for U.S. Cuba Relations, 2004) Special Edition, December 21, 2004, p. 1. Article 2 of BAA states: “Given that the Bolivarian process has placed itself on a much firmer footing after the decisive victories in the revocatory referendum of 15 August 2004 and the regional elections of October 31, 2004 and since Cuba and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela will be based from this date forward not only on principles of solidarity, which will always be present, but also, and to the highest possible degree, on the exchange of goods and services which best correspond to the social and economic necessities of both countries”. Ibid., p. 1 [30] The FTAA is opposed by trade blocs such as Mercosur – Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay – and by many of the Guyana based CARICOM countries. [31] Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Western Hemisphere Affairs Rogelio Pardo-Maurer IV, who is the senior advisor to Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, offered an insight into the alternative proposed by the United States in his July 2005 speech before the Washington-based Hudson Institute. He said the following: “there are alternatives to the model that we champion…which is the model of the democratic, market based liberal society, liberal in the old-fashioned sense of the word…There are less benign (alternatives). There are even malicious and I would not be afraid to say, downright evil alternatives. One of them, as we know, is the Bolivarian Alternative…this is the model championed by Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, and supported or even directed by Fidel Castro in Cuba. That is an alternative”. See Ralph J. Galliano, Editor, U.S.-CubaPolicy Report. (Washington DC: Institute for U.S. Cuba Relations, 2005) Special Edition, July 26, 2005, p.4. [32] Osvaldo H. Schenone and Samuel Gregg, A Theory of Corruption, The Theology of Sin. (Grand Rapids, Michigan: Christian Social Thought Series Number 7, 2003 ) p. 48 [33] Wilhelm Roepke, International Order and Economic Integration. ( Dordrecht, Holland: D. Reidel Publishing Company, 1959) p.13. First published in Switzerland by Eugen Rentsch Verlag AG, Erlenbach-Zurich, Switzerland. [34] Sudan and Rwuanda-Burundi are only two exampless among many. [35] See: Jacques Groothaert, L’Europe aux miroirs ( Bruxelles: Editions LABOR, 1996) p.90 [36] Jacques Groothaert expresses this truth in a very poetic but real way when he writes: “Nous ne pouvons qu’evoquer les rapports entre primitives flamends et peinture italienne, les cathedrals gothiques de France, d’Angleterre ou d’Allemagne, les chateaux au classicism a la francaise, le baroque triumphant et multiforme de l’Espagne a la Baviere, l’ecole de peinture de Paris ou se retrouvent les Espagnols Picasso et Miro, le Russe Chagall, l’Italien Modigliani, le Bulgare Soutine”. [37] Dietrich von Hildebrand, The New Tower of Babel.(New York: P.J. Kennedy & Sons, 1953) p. 1

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The Oxford Handbook of Peaceful Change in International Relations

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8 Economic Interdependence, Globalization, and Peaceful Change

John Ravenhill is professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Waterloo.

Published: 08 October 2020
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The world is characterized by unprecedented levels of economic interdependence, intensified by globalization. It is also an era when the incidence of interstate warfare has declined markedly (Human Security Report Project 2009; Pinker 2011). To the casual observer, the link between these two trends may seem obvious. Demonstrating a more robust relationship between economic interdependence and peaceful change has proved challenging, however—fraught with problems such as how best to define and measure the two concepts. This chapter first examines the principal traditions that theorize the relationship between economic interdependence and peaceful change. It then reviews the challenges that have faced scholars who have sought through large-N studies to demonstrate a statistically significant association between these concepts. Problems in conceptualizing the independent and dependent variables cast doubt on the validity of the conclusions of many studies. They also fail to capture the complexities of the new interdependence associated with globalization.

We inhabit a world characterized by unprecedented levels of economic interdependence, intensified by globalization. It is also an era in which the incidence of interstate warfare has declined markedly (Human Security Report Project 2009 ; Pinker 2011 ). To the casual observer, the link between these two trends may seem obvious. Demonstrating a more robust relationship between economic interdependence and peaceful change has proved challenging, however—fraught with problems such as how best to define and measure the two concepts, endogeneity issues (What is the direction of causality? Does economic interdependence produce peaceful change, or does peaceful change foster economic interdependence?), and how to disentangle the independent effects of economic interdependence from a host of intervening (confounding) variables and their interactive effects. This chapter first examines the principal traditions that theorize the relationship between economic interdependence and peaceful change. It then reviews the challenges that have faced scholars who have sought through large-N studies to demonstrate a statistically significant association between these concepts. Globalization has brought new linkages among countries that further complicate investigation of this relationship.

Whether economic interdependence will bring peaceful change has divided scholars of international relations for more than three centuries. Legitimate concerns about the role of “isms” in the study of international relations notwithstanding (Lake 2011 ), the traditional distinction between liberalism, realism, and Marxism/neo-Marxism generates three schools with internally consistent views on the relationship. To these three we add arguments derived from the literature on international conflict that focus on the role of signaling in mitigating the possibilities for conflict.

Economic Interdependence Enhances the Prospects for Peaceful Change

The liberal tradition that sees economic interdependence as fostering peaceful interstate relations originated with Eméric Crucé ( 1972 ), whose The New Cyneas was published in 1623, during the Thirty Years’ War (1618–1648). His central thesis was that humanity would benefit from engaging in trade and peaceful international relations rather than waging wars between countries, races, or religions. Crucé put forward several measures through which he believed trade and thus the prospects for peace could be enhanced (Reza 2015 ). The argument was taken up by numerous liberal writers over the next three centuries. In Montesquieu’s words, first published in 1748: “Peace is the natural effect of trade. Two nations who traffic with each other become reciprocally dependent; for if one has an interest in buying, the other has an interest in selling; and thus their union is founded on their mutual necessities” (quoted in Dorussen and Ward 2010 , 31).

Beginning with the work of Norman Angel ( 1910 ), the relationship between interdependence and peaceful change typically became expressed in terms of “opportunity costs,” the benefits given up when one alternative is chosen over another. War was not a rational instrument for pursuing economic welfare because it would sacrifice the benefits from international trade. The potential gains from conflict (which itself would be costly to wage) could never offset the losses caused by disruption to trade (see also Polachek 1980 ). Rosecrance ( 1986 ) elaborated on Angel’s argument: modern economic development had fundamentally altered the balance between the potential gains from war and those from peace. The benefits from commercial relations had increased as technology reduced the transaction costs of international trade. Meanwhile the economic costs of war had also risen with contemporary industrialization. So, too, had the political costs. It was far more cost effective for governments to become “trading states” rather than warring states; the benefits of interdependence could be reaped through commerce and would far outweigh any net gains that could feasibly be achieved through territorial expansion.

Somewhat paradoxically, given the customary liberal emphasis on competition among diverse groups in the political system being the driver of policies (Moravcsik 1997 ), some classical liberal writings on the relationship between interdependence and peaceful change portrayed the state as a unitary actor (e.g., the reference to “nations” in the quote from Montesquieu or John Stuart Mill’s argument that “commerce first taught nations to see with good will the wealth and prosperity of one another”; Mill 1884 , 453). For the most part, however, liberal writings had at least an implicit theory of domestic political economy.

The context in which classical liberals were writing is important. They strove to differentiate their arguments from various mercantilist proposals that equated national wealth with state power, strong armies, and overseas expansion through international conflict. For liberals, the commercial peace would come about because domestic groups would appreciate the benefits of international trade, and (for some authors) pro-trade elements would be strengthened politically by these economic benefits. 1 Evident here is the expectation that the rising middle class would be able to constrain any warmongering by the sovereign and overcome a reactionary alliance between precapitalist elements: the landed aristocracy and the military. Commercial peace arguments consequently frequently spilled over into democratic peace propositions—because a democracy would more effectively enable domestic interests to constrain the sovereign (Cobden 1867 ; Schumpeter 1975 ). Disentangling the independent effects on peace of economic interdependence and democracy (or the interaction between these variables) consequently has posed a significant challenge to those seeking to test liberal arguments.

The presence of international institutions that could help build confidence among states and potentially arbitrate disputes was another potentially confounding factor in the relationship between economic interdependence and peaceful change. Although it was best known as part of the mutually supportive Kantian trinity of democracy, economic interdependence, and international law and organization, Crucé had pioneered this argument, basing his plans for “universal peace” on the creation of a permanent assembly of ambassadors from all sovereign states (Fenet 2004 ). Contemporary studies have explored how a variety of economic and other international institutions (ranging from regional trade agreements—Mansfield, Pevehouse, and Bearce 1999–2000 ; Mansfield and Pevehouse 2000 , 2 —to utilization of the International Court of Justice—Davis and Morse 2018 —to intergovernmental organizations more generally—Russett, Oneal, and Davis 1998 ) can enhance the pacifying effects of commerce. Again, the challenge for those attempting to establish a causal relationship between interdependence and peace is how to estimate the influence of commerce independent from that of joint membership in international institutions.

The Bargaining Theory of Conflict

A second literature that posits a positive relationship between economic interdependence and peaceful change rests not on the opportunity costs of war but on the potentially positive impact that interdependence can have on the capacity to signal intentions to a potential adversary. The argument, sometimes referred to as the bargaining theory of conflict, builds on Blainey’s ( 1973 ) insight, formalized by Fearon ( 1994 , 1995 ), that international conflict frequently results from parties’ misperceiving the intent of potential adversaries and consequently being unable to strike an appropriate bargain that would avoid war.

Two propositions follow from this line of reasoning. The first is that economic interdependence, by fostering regular interaction among states and thus informational exchange, reduces the chance of misperception and is a confidence-building exercise (the classic political argument, for example, for regional economic integration). The second is that economic interdependence affords states the opportunity to send “costly signals,” making it less likely that their intent will be misperceived (Morrow 2003 ). International crises, in Morrow’s ( 1999 ) terminology, are often a matter of “relative resolve”: if a state perceives another as lacking resolution, then it will be more likely to take the risk of escalating a crisis to seek concessions from the other party. Credibility in conveying resolve rests upon the sending of “costly signals”: the willingness of a state to incur a not-insignificant cost to attain its goals. Higher levels of interdependence provide more options for sending costly signals; states can impose restrictions on trade or financial flows that hurt their domestic populations as well as the foreign target. A potentially aggressive state should be deterred by such effective signaling from escalating crises into all-out war.

In the original formulation of the bargaining theory of conflict, states were treated as unitary actors whose rationality is constrained by imperfect information. Further elaborations of the perspective, however, allowed for the possibility that the incentive structures for domestic actors to reach a negotiated settlement will vary according to their roles in the economy. If powerful domestic interests—and political leaders—do not benefit as much as others from economic interdependence, they will have less interest in sending the credible signals necessary to avoid conflict (Jackson and Morelli 2007 ; McDonald and Sweeney 2007 ; Chatagnier and Kavaklı 2017 ).

Alternatives to the Liberal Approach: Economic Interdependence Enhances the Prospects for Interstate Conflict

Writers in the realist tradition dating back to Thucydides ( 1972 ) have perceived enhanced economic interdependence as a potential source of conflict. The starting point for the realist position is that interdependence is rarely symmetrical and can be manipulated by the stronger party (Waltz 1979 , 141). Where the context is one of asymmetrical interdependence, a state is vulnerable to a disruption of relations and to the leverage this threat provides to the stronger party (as elaborated, for instance, in Hirschman’s 1945 study of relations between Eastern European countries and Nazi Germany). Trade can be a vehicle for exacerbating asymmetries and thus vulnerabilities.

In an anarchical world, states will be concerned about relative gains issues and the possibility that disproportionate gains accruing to a potential adversary will be translated into enhanced military capabilities. They will therefore do what is required to reduce their sources of vulnerability, engaging in armed conflict if this is perceived to be necessary to protect their economic interests. E. H. Carr ( 1946 , ch. 4) asserted that the liberal idea of a harmony of interests was as illusory at the international level as it was at the domestic. It was naïve for liberal economists to consider welfare in terms of the world as a whole. The availability of lands for new settlement may have suppressed economic nationalism in much of the nineteenth century, but uneven development soon exposed the underlying conflict of interest among countries. Realists assert that rather than promoting confidence among partners, the increase in interactions associated with interdependence provides more opportunities for conflict to occur (Waltz 1979 ; Gartzke 2003 ). For realists, states can be regarded as unitary actors because political elites will take whatever action is necessary in the rational pursuit of national interests.

Writers who studied late nineteenth-century imperialism from other intellectual traditions also saw economic interdependence (in this instance defined in terms of competition over international markets) as leading to interstate conflict. The challenge to capitalism of domestic underconsumption, an argument originally developed from a social democratic perspective (Hobson 1902 ), fueled an expansionary logic that ultimately produced conflict among rival imperial powers. Subsequently, Marxist theorists of imperialism added two other reasons for capitalist adventures overseas and consequent conflict: the problem of finding outlets for ever-increasing capital surpluses and the quest for less-expensive raw materials (Lenin 1933 ; Bukharin 1929 ). Neo-Marxist writers, such as those who examined US policies toward Central and South America, built on these arguments about the quest for security of supply of inexpensive raw materials; their focus, however, was primarily on conflict between the United States and less-developed economies rather than on how imperialism inflamed antagonisms among industrialized economies.

Marxists and neo-Marxists have a straightforward interpretation of domestic political economy in capitalist countries. The interests of the bourgeoisie dictate foreign policies. In the instrumental Marxist tradition (Miliband 1969 ), the influence of particular fractions of capital, pursuing their interests, will push countries into warfare even if it damages broader economic welfare (and possibly the interests of the bourgeoisie as a whole)—hence, for example, US military intervention in Guatemala in 1954 in support of the interests of the United Fruit Company.

The theoretical approaches to understanding the relationship between economic interdependence and peaceful change rest largely on deductive reasoning. The next section reviews attempts to examine the relationship empirically.

Conceptualizing and Measuring the Independent Variable

Examinations of the effects of interdependence on peaceful change have typically focused on trade as the measure of the independent variable. This might seem a straightforward relationship to examine but immediately encounters several challenges. The first is data availability. The time series on international trade produced by international agencies do not go back before 1945. Previous patterns of trading have to be pieced together from a variety of national sources. And even for the post–Second World War period, data for many pairs of countries are frequently missing—and as would be anticipated, missing data are not distributed randomly but are more common for countries that are the least democratic, have the smallest economies, and are the least developed and least powerful (Boehmer, Jungblut, and Stoll 2011 ). How to treat missing data (to avoid dropping a large number of dyads from their analysis, analysts frequently estimate the missing values) can bias the results and has been a major controversy in the literature (Barbieri, Keshk, and Pollins 2009 ; Gleditsch 2010 ; Barbieri and Keshk 2011 ).

Controversy has also surrounded the issue of how to measure interdependence through trade. One problem is that dependence on trade typically varies with the size of the economy; as Waltz ( 1979 , 145) reminded us, great powers typically are less dependent than others on international trade. Adjusting trade for the size of national income, however, introduces further complications regarding the measurement of economic size itself. A second issue is how to measure the importance of trade with a given partner: Should it be relative, for instance, to the country’s overall reliance on trade, or to the size of its economy? A third issue is how to incorporate asymmetries in interdependence within dyads—a key theme in realist writing being that asymmetries may encourage states to engage in conflict. A final issue is whether there should be some time lag introduced to allow for the possibility that changes in trade may take time to influence the likelihood of conflict—or for the possibility that conflict, in turn, will impact trade volumes.

The choice of measures has had a profound impact on the conclusions that authors have reached about the relationship between economic interdependence and conflict. Some of the foundational work in the field found that trade either has no effect on conflict or is associated with more incidences of conflict (Barbieri 1996 , 2002 ). In contrast, other pioneering researchers in the field, such as Oneal and Russett ( 1997 , 1999 ), reached the opposite conclusion using different measures of trade interdependence; consistent with liberal arguments, they found that trade was negatively associated with incidence of conflicts.

These contradictory results raise fundamental questions about conceptualizing the relationship between interdependence and conflict. The first is whether treating trade in the aggregate really addresses some of the important issues raised in the theoretical literature. The second, examined in the next part of this chapter, is whether trade itself is a sufficient measure of interdependence in an era of globalization.

There are two dimensions to the liberal opportunity cost argument: the costs that would be imposed by conflict and the potential costs of the counterfactual, those that would be imposed by the pursuit of alternative policies. Measuring the costs of conflict is far from straightforward; radically different estimates reflect alternative methodologies—whether, for instance, the focus is solely on direct costs such as the replacement value of goods destroyed in conflict or whether it includes potential indirect costs such as the impact on education, health (including future costs of caring for veterans, etc.), inequality, and investment—and for how long in the postwar period these need to be measured (see Gardeazabal 2012 ; Brück and De Groot 2013 ).

For the commercial peace argument, the key variable is the losses imposed by the disruption to international trade. Measurement complications notwithstanding, various studies provide strong evidence that war in general is costly (especially among major powers) and has a particularly disruptive impact on international trade (for an overview see Barbieri and Levy 1999 ; Blomberg and Hess 2012 provide an alternative perspective).

Although estimates of the costs of conflict among major powers would cause most reasonable observers to question whether they could conceivably be outweighed by any benefits, the same conclusion does not necessarily apply to specific conflicts, particularly those that involve parties of substantially unequal power. The US intervention in Central America in support of the United Fruit Company, for instance, imposed few direct costs on the US economy. Findlay and O’Rourke ( 2012 ) offer a variety of examples for which they argue that access to specific markets and resources, gained through the projection of military power, was crucial to the industrialization of Europe.

Reference to raw materials suggests another complication. When considering vulnerability—that is, the costs of breaking a relationship and having to secure alternative sources of supply or new markets—some trade is more equal than others. Certain “strategic goods” are much more important for the military security of states (Reuveny and Kang 1998 ). Only a limited number of countries may be cost-effective suppliers of essential resources, such as petroleum. The characteristics of the goods being traded therefore may impact the likelihood that the partners will enter into a militarized dispute (Dorussen 2006 ; Goenner 2010 ). While the aggregate trade between a country and the exporter of a coveted resource may be small relative to the importing country’s overall trade, it may be much more consequential in terms of vulnerability than larger volumes of trade in products for which substitutes are readily available.

Treating trade in the aggregate consequently may lead to misleading conclusions about the relationship between interdependence and peaceful change; countries may be more inclined to undertake aggressive action against relatively small partners that supply what are regarded as critical resources. For some authors, the growing demand for a finite supply of natural resources increases the likelihood of interstate conflict (Klare 2001 ; Reuveny 2002 ). These may be as seemingly esoteric as fish stocks, the cause of the 1970s conflict between Iceland and the United Kingdom (Mitchell 1976 ). The COVID-19 crisis illustrates how conceptions of “strategic” goods may be context specific.

Moreover, the export profile of countries may make some of them more war prone; Colgan ( 2010 , 2013 ) notes this is particularly the case for oil-exporting countries (cf. Park, Abolfathi, and Ward 1976 ). The decision to wage war may also be easier to make because of the characteristics of the exporting countries. Ross and Voeten ( 2015 ), for example, find that oil producers are less likely to be members of intergovernmental organizations or to agree to compulsory third-party jurisdiction of conflicts, attributes identified by several studies as reinforcing the relationship between economic interdependence and peaceful change.

If some varieties of trade are more likely to generate armed conflict among the partners, others (associated with contemporary globalization) may be more facilitative of peaceful change. Much of the literature treats economic interdependence as if we are still living in the 1950s, an era before intra-industry trade became prominent and largely before the advent of global value chains (GVCs). Chatagnier and Kavaklı ( 2017 ), for instance, argue that countries that produce and export similar goods are “generally more likely to fight” than those that produce complementary goods. The study ignores how intra-industry trade has affected the economic—and political—consequences of competition in international markets. Dating back to the pioneering study by Bela Balassa ( 1966 ), a substantial literature has noted how intra-industry trade substantially reduces the adjustment costs (economic and political) associated with trade liberalization (Brülhart and Hine 1999 ; Alt et al. 1996 ). Moreover, horizontal intra-industry trade, the dominant structure of trade among industrialized economies since the 1960s and now constituting three-quarters of global commerce, is less likely to generate the concerns regarding potential vulnerability, prominent in realist analysis, that rest on the idea that interdependence will provide political leverage to a trading partner.

For most political economists, the hypothesis put forward by Chatagnier and Kavaklı ( 2017 , 1528) that “dyads that produce similar manufactured goods may be especially violent because they compete over a larger number of issues” has little relevance in a world of intra-industry trade and GVCs. Peterson and Thies ( 2012 ) provide one of the few investigations of the impact of intra-industry trade on conflict, finding that intra-industry trade is associated with peace within dyads, whereas overall trade interaction has an ambiguous effect on conflict.

The Opportunity Costs of Not Going to War

Much liberal theorizing appears to assume that the policy alternatives to armed conflict are relatively costless. That may not be so if maintenance of the status quo has the potential, for example, to deny access to critical raw materials. And the use of alternative policy instruments, such as economic sanctions, can impose significant welfare losses on the country imposing these policies. Costly signals can indeed be costly, particularly if they do not achieve their desired policy outcomes. Davis, Murphy, and Topel ( 2009 ) offer a rare comprehensive assessment of the possible opportunity costs that would have been incurred in the absence of one major militarized conflict: the US invasion of Iraq in March 2003. These include the direct costs associated with sustaining a military presence sufficient to implement a containment strategy against Iraq, including those required to compel Iraqi compliance with a rigorous inspections and disarmaments regime, as well as those associated with the possibility of future terrorist attacks. Their estimates are that the cost to the United States of a containment policy would have been of a magnitude similar to the initial cost associated with the 2003 military interventions. Inevitably, some would regard the assumptions underlying the modeling as a flight of imagination, but the study shows clearly that the opportunity costs of not going to war can be formidable (Stiglitz and Bilmes 2012 provide much higher estimates of the costs of US intervention in Iraq).

Interdependence Beyond Trade?

Whether trade is the best measure of interdependence in an era of globalization is questionable, particularly when the focus is on the opportunity costs of breaking ties. Foreign direct investment can often be a substitute for trade, enabling local production of goods that might otherwise have been imported. Today, the annual value of the sales of the international subsidiaries of transnational corporations (which amounted to $27.3 trillion in 2018) substantially exceeds the annual value of global trade ($19.67 trillion merchandise trade plus $5.63 trillion in services) (UNCTAD 2019 ; WTO 2019 ). To fully gauge the significance of financial flows, however, a further $4.2 trillion in portfolio flows and bank lending (UNCTAD 2019 ) must be added to the annual flows of $2.3 trillion in foreign direct investment. Few studies of the relationship between economic interdependence and peaceful change have attempted to factor in the role of international financial flows—Gartzke, Li, and Boehmer ( 2001 ), Rosecrance and Thompson ( 2003 ), Polachek, Seiglie, and Xiang ( 2007 ), and Polachek, Seiglie, and Xiang ( 2012 ) are rare exceptions; a much earlier study (Gasiorowski 1986 ) included a (largely incomplete) measure of financial flows.

Even adding financial flows, however, still provides only a limited conceptualization of contemporary interdependence. Divergent interests in local, regional, or global “commons,” such as river basins or the atmosphere (or, as seen in the COVID-19 pandemic, global health), have the potential to generate interstate conflict. Studies of the relationship between various environmental scarcities and conflict generally find that the relationship is indeterminate and contingent on a range of political and economic conditions as well as on the specific characteristics of the environmental issue (Bernauer, Bohmelt, and Koubi 2012 ; Gartzke 2012 ; Salehyan and Hendrix 2014 ; Zografos, Goulden, and Kallis 2014 ). It may also depend on the quality of institutions created to manage joint resources (Tir and Stinnett 2012 ) and on actor expectations (Bas and McLean 2020 ). Studies continue to echo the conclusion of Homer-Dixon’s early work on shared river resources that “conflict and turmoil…are more often internal than international” (Homer-Dixon 1994 , 20). 3

These conclusions raise an important question regarding how we conceptualize “peaceful change.” Most of the literature focuses on interstate conflict. The editors’ definition in their introductory essay for the present volume, however, goes far beyond this characterization in quoting Deutsch et al.’s ( 1957 ) identification of peaceful change with “the resolution of social problems mutually by institutionalized procedures without resort to largescale physical force” (quoted in Paul, in this volume, 4). Clearly the impact of economic interdependence on conflict within countries would be embraced by this definition. Civil wars would be the most extreme example (Collier et al. 2003 ), but the spectrum of nonpeaceful change also embraces violent protests; ethnic, class, and religion-based conflicts; and crime (Rodrik 1999 ; Anderton and Carter 2019 ). Space constraints preclude going beyond acknowledging that another broad set of questions and large literature exist in relation to economic interdependence and peaceful change within countries. This acknowledgement does, however, provide a convenient segue into a discussion of the dependent variable.

The Dependent Variable

Interstate wars are relatively rare and have become rarer over the last half century. Few commentators would lament this trend. For students of the relationship between economic interdependence and peaceful change, however, it does pose significant challenges.

Writers in the liberal and realist traditions agree on one thing in examining the consequences of economic interdependence: it is all about vulnerability and the opportunity costs of breaking a relationship. For liberals, the argument is that warfare will lead to a complete disruption of economic relations with the other party/parties. The scope of this disruption will ensure that its costs, together with those of prosecuting the war, will inevitably outweigh any potential gains and will therefore constrain state behavior. If, for instance, the ‘conflict’ is merely a short-lived exchange of shots across a border, the likely damage to economic relations would be of a significantly lesser magnitude.

One of the pioneering studies of the factors associated with international conflict found that only 85 of the more than 200,000 dyad years in his study (just over 0.04 percent) were characterized by war (Bremer 1992 ). As another pioneering study (Oneal and Russett 1997 , 273) noted, the relatively small number of wars renders unreliable statistical analysis that includes only that small population. Many analysts, accordingly, have focused on broader definitions of interstate conflict. Most frequently, they have used one of the data sets on militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) derived from the Correlates of War project. The authors of one of the original compilations of these data define militarized interstate disputes as “a set of interactions between or among states involving threats to use military force, displays of military force, or actual uses of military force. To be included, these acts must be explicit, overt, nonaccidental, and government sanctioned” (Gochman and Maoz 1984 , 587). MIDs explicitly are not interstate wars. The literature specifically refers to them as “sub-war” conflicts. They may be such relatively minor incidents as an increase in the military readiness of a state’s forces or the issuance of threats.

Several problems are evident in using such data to test the arguments regarding economic interdependence and peaceful change. The first is whether many of the disputes would be likely to impose the magnitude of opportunity costs central to the theorizing. The severity of the disputes included in the data set varies significantly. In the Gochman and Maoz ( 1984 , 587) study, for instance, the modal length of disputes (constituting 22 percent of the total) was a single day. If only the subset of MIDs that include a fatality is used, authors encounter the same issue as if the focus were on interstate war; Peterson and Thies, who do include only fatal MIDs in their study, acknowledge that “our D[ependent] V[ariable] is an exceptionally rare event” (Peterson and Thies 2012 , 757 n52).

Problems are typically compounded by how the data are then manipulated. The usual procedure in the studies that use MIDs is to dichotomize the dependent variable: dyads are coded as either experiencing or not experiencing an MID. The problem here lies in aggregating very different types of incident and treating them in the same way. Many disputes would be unlikely to come close to generating the opportunity costs associated with war. Nonetheless, some analysts who employ the MIDs data frequently use the terms war, hostility, military conflict, and dispute interchangeably. As one example among many, Chatagnier and Kavaklı ( 2017 ) employ the terminology of “fighting” and “military combat.” And even those who are careful in referring only to “disputes” or “conflicts” nonetheless begin their studies with a recounting of the theoretical perspectives on economic interdependence and war (see, for instance, some of the most frequently cited studies, such as Polachek 1980 and Oneal and Russett 1997 ). The argument about relatively insignificant opportunity costs applies a fortiori to those studies that have used events data to enumerate conflicts among states. No one pretends that interdependence is costless. Conflicts will inevitably occur among economic partners over, for instance, the pricing of goods. But such frictions will rarely escalate to the point that there is any possibility of the relationship being severed.

A second problem is one of interpretation. As Jones, Bremer, and Singer ( 1996 , 170) note, “threats are verbal indications of hostile intent, and since these are expressed in diplomatic language, they are not always easy to interpret.” The compilers of the MIDs data sets utilize standard procedures to establish inter-coder reliability. But subjectivity inevitably creeps in, which can lead to coding errors that, in turn, can generate misleading results. An examination of the coding of the MIDs data set through version 3.1 found that more than two-thirds of the entries needed revision. Using the revised data, the authors found that in several studies that used the data set, the “interpretation of several key relationships depends wholly on improperly coded cases in the original data” (Gibler, Miller, and Little 2017 , 720).

Examining the relationship between economic interdependence and peaceful change using data on militarized disputes is equally problematic if the objective is to evaluate the bargaining theory of conflict. Many incidents coded as constituting a militarized dispute are exactly the type of “costly signal” that figures prominently in this theorizing. They are the independent variables rather than the dependent variable. If one treats war as the dependent variable, and MIDs as the independent, then exponents of the bargaining theory of war may find support for their arguments—insofar as very few militarized disputes actually lead to interstate war (in the third iteration of the MIDs database, only 4 percent of the total of slightly over two thousand disputes escalated into war; see Jones, Bremer, and Singer 1996 , 197). The small numbers involved, however, again make it risky to draw any conclusions.

Interdependence and Peaceful Change in an Era of Globalization

Classical liberal theorizing is ambiguous on whether the key relationships are among pairs of states or between a state and all its (major) partners in a global society of states. Several prominent liberal theorists can be quoted in support of the latter approach—notably Immanuel Kant, who repeatedly made reference to a “universal community” (see Kinne 2012 , 309). Studies, however, have typically examined relationships between pairs of states. This approach has the advantage of being relatively easy to measure. It also maps neatly onto the major databases on international conflict, which focus on dyads. Whether such a method is appropriate, either as a test of the classical liberal propositions or as a measure of the opportunity costs of disruptions to trade in the contemporary era of GVCs, is questionable.

An initial consideration is that a state may be deterred from engaging in conflict with a partner not because of the opportunity costs of breaking that specific relationship but because it may jeopardize economic relations with more significant third parties, which might either impose sanctions or break an economic relationship because of the country’s military adventurism. An illustration of the logic would be if Russia were deterred from military intervention in Ukraine not because of the direct or opportunity costs of that conflict with Ukraine itself but because this aggression would prompt sanctions from other countries. Peterson ( 2011 ), on the other hand, suggests that taking third parties into account may have an entirely different logic. Building on the relative gains concerns expressed in realist theorizing, he contends that trade between one member of a dyad and a third party risks shifting the balance of capabilities within the dyad sufficiently that the relatively disadvantaged state may be tempted to engage in conflict. He finds some support for this argument (again using MIDs data), but only in politically dissimilar dyads with relatively low levels of trade between the parties. Yet another alternative deductive argument regarding third parties is that because their own well-being rests on trade between two members of a dyad, they will have an incentive to try to prevent any conflict between the two parties (Dorussen and Ward 2010 , 29; see also Kleinberg, Robinson, and French 2012 ; Chen 2020 ). To date, no conclusive evidence is available to support one alternative rather than another.

Including third parties goes only a small way toward accommodating the complexities of the contemporary global economy. Final goods are frequently assembled from hundreds of components sourced from multiple countries. The spread of vertically integrated intra-industry trade within value chains has been a major motivation behind preferential trade agreements linking industrialized and less-developed economies (Manger 2012 ). Moreover, the advent of GVCs has been associated with a nearly universal increase in the share of trade in countries’ gross domestic product (GDP). Consequently, the costs that would be imposed by a disruption in supply chains have increased (Ravenhill 2009 ), and nowhere is this more evident than in the COVID-19 outbreak. Studies have applied various forms of network analysis in attempting to address these new complexities (Maoz et al. 2006 ; Dorussen and Ward 2010 ; Kinne 2012 ; Lupu and Traag 2013 ; Jackson and Nei 2015 ; Maoz and Joyce 2016 ; Dorussen, Gartzke, and Westerwinter 2016 ; Amador and Cabral 2017 ). Authors, however, face formidable challenges in attempting to measure networked trading relations. One difficulty in examining a universe comprising all members of the global trading system is the sheer number of observations—as Maoz et al. ( 2006 , 683) noted of their study, “Due to the exceedingly large n s, almost any correlation is statistically significant.”

Disruptions to value chain trade can be particularly costly—and the complexities of inter-firm and international trade within them make it difficult to predict how the costs of conflict will be distributed. US measures to restrict imports from China during the Trump presidency inevitably affected companies from US allies such as Japan and Korea that assembled goods in China. Moving the assembly point elsewhere (to Vietnam in this instance) reduces the impact on allies. But the location of plants is not arbitrary. They usually tie into specific infrastructure, concentrations of suppliers and expertise, and other factors that are not easily replicated elsewhere. Relatively few industries are genuinely footloose, at least in the short term.

A fundamental problem not addressed in the literature is whether conventional national trade data are meaningful in a world of GVCs. Bernard and Ravenhill ( 1995 ) first pointed out how misleading national trade statistics can be by examining the example of a calculator, assembled in Thailand, which was classified for the purposes of trade statistics as a Thai export even though almost all its cost came from components imported from other countries. Subsequent studies, most notably of various Apple products (Linden, Kraemer, and Dedrick 2007 ; Kraemer, Linden, and Dedrick 2011 ; Xing and Detert 2011 ; Xing 2015 ), have reinforced the argument. Moreover, because components frequently cross international boundaries on multiple occasions before being assembled into a final product, conventional trade data substantially overstate the value of trade because multiple counting of intermediate goods and services occurs.

International economic institutions have increasingly recognized the problems with conventional national trade statistics, launching a major project to measure trade on a value-added (TVA) basis (see OECD and WTO 2011 ; Mattoo, Wang, and Wei 2013 ). While these data provide a far better understanding of the interdependencies (and potential vulnerabilities) among economies in contemporary global trade, they are far from complete; in the most recent release, data are available for only sixty-four countries and for only thirty-six industrial sectors (nonetheless, these provide potentially twenty-eight quadrillion combinations; OECD 2019 , 15). They are also only available for a handful of years. 4 Although TVA data provide a much better estimate of networked trade than do conventional national trade data, the relatively small number of countries and years for which they are available would make it difficult to utilize them for assessing the relationship between globalization and peaceful change.

Four decades on, and scores if not hundreds of large-N studies later, we still lack definitive conclusions about the relationship between economic interdependence, globalization, and peaceful change. A majority of the studies do find that interdependence has a mitigating effect on the occurrence of interstate conflict. But this positive impact is frequently found to be contingent on other factors such as joint democracy (with some finding that the interaction between trade and democracy is a particularly powerful predictor; Gelpi and Grieco 2003 ), on the types of goods involved (manufactures versus natural resources), and/or on the expectations of actors regarding the future course of the relationship (Copeland 1996 , 2015 ; Morrow 1999 ; Benson and Niou 2007 ).

Difficulties in measuring the independent and dependent variables cast doubt on the usefulness of the findings of many of the studies. The sophistication of the statistical techniques employed is not matched by the quality of the data. Particularly problematic is the conceptualization of the dependent variable. Most studies have used the MIDs databases, often conflating different types of dispute and then dichotomizing the variable into dyads that have experienced “disputes” and those that have avoided them. If the dependent variable is peaceful change, particularly in the broadest interpretation of the concept discussed by this volume’s editors, then MIDs might be relevant. They are far less so for testing the propositions drawn from the theoretical literatures, which explicitly reference war as the dependent variable because of the magnitude of the opportunity costs it would generate. Peterson ( 2011 , 190) argues that states are aware of the possible escalatory consequences of relatively low-hostility acts like threatening or displaying force that are included in the MIDs data set. That may be so, but a threat, in itself, does not give rise to the opportunity costs associated with war. Moreover, the use of MIDs is unlikely to help in testing arguments derived from the bargaining theory of war because many of the MIDs may be exactly the “costly signals” that the theory suggests economic interdependence will facilitate, and which will act as a deterrent to full-scale conflict.

Conceptualizing the independent variable is equally challenging. Even national trade statistics are problematic because of missing values. One study acknowledged that “far more work is needed to improve trade statistics, if we hope to use these data in meaningful ways in scientific research” (Barbieri and Keshk 2011 , 171). More fundamentally, discussions of trade within GVCs have exposed how misleading national trade data can be. Yet trade in value added data are only available for a limited number of years. Moreover, the complexities of value chains make it very difficult to link TVA data to propositions derived from our theories of international cooperation and conflict. Trade (and the damage from a breaking of commercial relations) is central to liberal theorizing of the commercial peace. Adding other measures of economic interdependence, such as investment linkages, may seem appropriate in a globalized world. The challenge becomes how other measures can be combined with trade data. What respective weighting should be applied, for instance? And how do the two interact? While foreign direct investment may be a substitute for trade where import substitution occurs, it may be complementary to trade in the operations of GVCs.

As Copeland ( 2015 , 54) reminds us, large-N studies tell us nothing about individual cases of interdependence and conflict, which may fall well outside of the regression line (and be driven, for instance, by misperceptions by key actors, by power asymmetries that influence the opportunity costs of conflict, or by the nature of the particular commodities that dominate trade between the parties). In the absence of data that are accurate measures of the independent and dependent variables, case studies may be the most appropriate means going forward for exploring the relationship between interdependence, globalization, and peaceful change.

International institutions have frequently been identified as an important intervening variable in the relationship between interdependence and conflict. Contemporary challenges to the liberal international economic order—and its supporting institutions, most notably the World Trade Organization (WTO)—consequently will inevitably trigger alarm bells. Globalization rests on free flows of capital and goods. For almost all years between the end of the Second World War and the global financial crises of 2008–2009, international trade grew more rapidly than global GDP. Domestic groups with an interest in trade consequently were strengthened in many countries, very much in accordance with classic liberal theorizing, and the assumption is that they had vested interests in avoiding international conflict. Moreover, trade was a central factor in lifting millions of people out of poverty in East Asia—thereby playing an important role in enhancing the prospects for peaceful change within these countries. Since 2009, the increase in global trade has barely kept pace with global GDP, and global trade actually fell in 2019 before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. By 2020 the trade trajectory was already much lower than the trend before 2009; the shutdown of the global economy in response to the COVID pandemic was projected by the WTO in early 2020 to lead to a decline in global trade of between 13 and 32 percent, with trade within value chains expected to decline most steeply (WTO 2020 ). Globalization is reversible, which was all too evident in the interwar period (McGrew 2020 ). Even if a contemporary reversal does not precipitate interstate war, the risk is that it will produce frictions that will endanger peaceful change at both domestic and international levels.

Classical liberals paid little attention to the distributive effects of trade liberalization, in particular, that it would create losers (in Ricardo’s original formulation of comparative advantage, the cloth manufacturers in Portugal and the winemakers in England) as well as winners. The focus is on aggregate national welfare; the expectation in mainstream economics is that gains will exceed losses and that any losers from liberalization can be compensated from the aggregate gains. What this argument ignores is the possibility that the losers from actual or potential trade liberalization may wield disproportionate influence in the political system, with potential implications for interstate conflict (see McDonald and Sweeney 2007 ).

But cf. Peterson ( 2015 ), who argues that countries excluded from such arrangements may be more prone to hostile action.

For other work in this field see, for example, Hall and Hall ( 1998 ); Theisen, Holtermann, and Buhaug ( 1998 ); Diehl and Gleditsch ( 2001 ); Nelson ( 2010 ); and Bergholt and Lujala ( 2012 ).

For further discussion of the methodological challenges in constructing TVA databases, see Miroudot and Yamano ( 2013 ).

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Does Globalization Contribute to Peace? A Critical Survey of the Literature

Book chapter

Schneider, Gerald; Katherine Barbieri & Nils Petter Gleditsch (2003) Does Globalization Contribute to Peace? A Critical Survey of the Literature, in Globalization and Armed Conflict . Lanham, MD (3–30).

This volume addresses one of the most important and controversial issues of our time - does global economic integration foster or suppress violent disputes within and between states? Here, research by leading figures in international relations shows that expanding commercial ties between states pacifies some, but not necessarily all, political relationships. The authors demonstrate that the pacific effect of economic integration hinges on democratic structures, the size of the global system, the nature of the trade goods and a reduced influence of the military on political decisions. In sum, the volume demonstrates how important the still fragile "capitalist peace" is.

Gerald Schneider

Katherine barbieri.

Nils Petter Gleditsch

Research Professor

Globalisation: factors of unity or division, depending on the circumstances

Globalisation - Globalización. University of Washington. Blog Elcano

There are many dimensions to globalisation and they are constantly changing and varying in their composition: the trade in goods, capital flows (both of these are currently in decline), information flows (on the increase) and the movement of people (also rising, with huge problems). There is also cultural exchange and even hybridisation, among other phenomena. As Lionel Barber , editor of the Financial Times (now owned by the Japanese Nikkei corporation, another change) argues, we have lived through ‘Globalisation 1.0’. And we are now in Globalisation 2.0, which means ‘the interdependence of several identities or cultures characterised by new forms of non-western modernity’. The part about non-western is important, not only for this new brand of globalisation, but also for global governance and the world order, which the West can no longer impose. In any event, recent years have shown that Thomas Friedman was wrong to propose that the world was flat. Far from it: it is highly contoured, even if the world economy has lately shown the tendency to flat-line.

This was one of the subjects under debate at the Second Foro de Foros Intergenerational Encounter held in La Granja, running from 3 to 5 March. Is the choice between globalisation and more regionalisation? Or, as a recent excellent report from Credit Suisse put it, are we moving towards the end of globalisation or a multipolar world (not necessarily the same thing as multilateral, or even close)? Certain factors are identified as potential game changers, with three in particular standing out (the analysis adds a fourth: food and obesity).

First there is the digital world . Services, products and even money are becoming increasingly digital. And digitalisation is one of the elements that drives globalisation, although products and services are now more on the move than workers, despite the growth of migration in absolute terms. But we still do not inhabit a truly globalised digital realm.

Globalisation’s second game changer, although this may come as something of a surprise, is the growing automation and robotisation of many tasks . This may lead to a more connected world, but may also trigger more fissures, since not all countries can or will be able to develop competitive robotic and robotised industries. Currently there are three large manufacturers of robots: the US, Germany and Japan. Although China is the country that installs most robots in its factories, they are very often made in Japan or elsewhere. Added to this is the likely impact of increasingly sophisticated 3D printers (or ‘additive manufacturing’), which could lead to a slowdown in the international trade in components and even finished products. They could, in other words, disrupt the famous value chains that underlie globalisation. This automation (as well as the rising labour costs in China and elsewhere) accounts in part for the reindustrialisation that the US, for example, is currently witnessing.

There is a third factor that could end up going one way or the other: Internet security . As indicated above, the Internet makes the world more interconnected, although some countries and regimes, such as the Chinese, have their walls to prevent their citizens from having excessive and uncontrolled access to external sources. On the Internet, geography, and therefore geopolitics, continues to matter. It is not for nothing that Google has its servers located essentially on US and to a lesser extent European soil: in other words, in reliable jurisdictions, although it is now extending to others.

In 2007, in a book of the same title, I wrote about ‘ la fuerza de los pocos ’ (‘the power of the few’), in reference to how the new means of communication, the Internet and mobile telephones, were enabling individuals and small groups to obtain a global reach, sometimes with radical messages, as in the case of al-Qaeda or, currently, the Islamic State , simultaneously connecting and fragmenting the world. Daesh and Facebook use the same communication technologies. These trends have become stronger. And the next war could start not with a missile being launched, but rather with a cyber-attack.

When people talk about the lack of global governance, however, it should be remembered that there are systems that work, such as the postal system, the management of the Internet, air and sea traffic control and the International Organization for Standardization, the ISO, which is essential for the standardisation of robots, for example. It might even be said, citing as examples the way the UN’s new Sustainable Development Goals for 2030 were reached, or the Paris COP21 agreement on the fight against climate change, that we are in the presence of a new type of ‘bottom-up’ or ‘ inductive ’ global governance, emanating not just from States, but also from their citizens, think tanks, NGOs and even philanthropy, Bill Gates-style.

The report mentioned above includes a ‘globalisation clock’, according to which we could be in a situation that is both more globalised and more multipolar, although the slowdown in the emerging economies and the stagnation among the developed ones could be changing this situation. It sets out three scenarios:

(1) a globalisation that thrives; (2) the emergence of a multipolar world at the economic, political and social levels, including regional corporate champions that would supplant global multinationals; and (3) the end of globalisation, in a similar way to what happened after 1913, with less cooperation between States.

To a large extent it depends on how the factors mentioned above materialise, or how the tennis ball, as in Woody Allen’s Match Point , lands or is made to land.

Peacekeepers with the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), on patrol close to the Protection of Civilians site in Bor, South Sudan. UN Photo/JC McIlwaine (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

globalization promotes world peace and unity essay

From Globalization to Global Peace?

H umankind desperately wants peace. One of the most tantalizing and promising ways to achieve this age-old objective is to establish global governance. Today, perhaps more than at any other time in human history, we may be approaching the realm of worldwide cooperative governance.

There are spoilers, of course, including Russia with its belligerent attitude toward the West, Iran and North Korea each involved in a nuclear impasse, Sudan and its resistance to resolving the international crisis of Darfur, and the international impact of al-Qaeda and the Taliban. These impediments aside, many societies are—through technology—employing flat, integrated models of management that seem ideally suited to the purpose of such global governance. The European Union provides a pertinent example. Could this signal the first light of dawn in a new age of peace and prosperity?

Many efforts at securing peace through broad international cooperation have failed, including those of the League of Nations and its successor, the United Nations. More recently, both the United States and certain Islamic factions have tried to force their own solutions. Under the Bush Doctrine, the U.S. attempted to export democracy (even forcibly), believing that a democratized world would be more peaceful. Some Islamic groups hold to a contrasting view—that exporting Islamic models of government will result in stability through theocracy.

Peace and World Government in History

The idea of peace through world government can be traced back at least as far as the early 1300s when Italian poet Dante Alighieri wrote De Monarchia, a political treatise in which he promoted his ideas for a universal monarchy. The work concludes with a call for the Holy Roman Empire to provide a universal emperor in the temporal sphere (as distinct from the pope in the spiritual realm), who would use his power to create conditions of peace.

In 1713, Frenchman Charles Castel advocated an international organization responsible for maintaining world peace. He proposed that Europe’s royals yield some of their sovereign rights to a federal body charged with safeguarding their interests. His model sounds remarkably similar to that of the present European Union.

Eighteenth-century philosophers such as Jean-Jacques Rousseau and Immanuel Kant contributed various ideas of their own to the concept of supranational government. Rousseau advocated, among other things, “such a form of federal Government as shall unite nations by bonds similar to those which already unite their individual members, and place the one no less than the other under the authority of the Law” ( A Lasting Peace Through the Federation of Europe, 1756). Kant, for his part, set out a prescription for putting an end to war in a 1795 essay titled Perpetual Peace.

A century later, Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels envisioned world peace through a classless world order. And in 1940, novelist H.G. Wells offered his vision of how a peaceful world order might come about, noting that “the task of the peace-maker who really desires peace in a new world, involves not merely a political but a profound social revolution, profounder even than the revolution attempted by the Communists in Russia” (The New World Order) .

Many approaches to world government have come and gone, but to date none have led to universal peace. Perhaps a key to such failure lies in the inherent conflict between existing political systems. For example, democratic approaches are at odds with Islamic law or communist thinking. Effecting peace through any of these systems means forcing the others into compliance. In a politically plural world, this has met only resistance.

The desire for a form of government that would overarch national governments gained momentum after the 20 th century’s two dreadful world wars. Following the atomic bombing of the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Albert Einstein wrote that technological developments had shrunk the planet, and that in order to secure peace, “a world government must be created which is able to solve conflicts between nations by judicial decision. This government must be based on a clearcut constitution which is approved by the governments and the nations and which gives it the sole disposition of offensive weapons.” Judicial decision requires authority and structure, and it appeared to be the natural way to approach government. But a fulfillment of Einstein’s proposal has yet to see the light of day.

Technology and Globalization

Now perhaps we are on the brink of another bold experiment in world governance on a scale not seen before. Globalization is creating a new set of political, economic and social circumstances. Could this be the type of revolution H.G. Wells had in mind? The effects of globalization are real. National borders are increasingly permeable and irrelevant. Such changes demand reconsideration of old paradigms.

The development of the Internet in the late 1960s allowed computer networks to be created. Connectedness across borderless cyberspace became possible as the World Wide Web broke down centralized structures. The continual development of supporting technology has subsequently changed the way the world does business. Communication and information transfer is now global, transcending most nation-state boundaries. This is having an impact on how governments function.

As a result we are living in a very new and different world. The old world order consisted primarily of centralized systems of governance. These were hierarchical in nature, with a vertical structure that concentrated control inward and upward. Economist and bestselling author Jeremy Rifkin suggests that this 20 th -century governing model was a derivative of the industrial model developed by Frederick W. Taylor, whose Principles of Scientific Management (1911) revolutionized the way industry operated. Later, notes Rifkin, governments adopted a political version. This system worked well in a world where most nations operated in a similar centralized fashion, whether capitalist or communist. The technology revolution has changed all that, however. Technology allows the old top-down system to be flattened into a more open model.

Revolution in Governance: The European Model

By design or by necessity, a new government structure is developing in Europe that many feel has merit for consideration on a wider scale. An important feature of the model provided by the European Union (EU) is that the system, while “unified,” is actually decentralized . As information flows across national boundaries and allows people in diverse locations and cultures to offer input on all kinds of issues, a feedback loop is created. The governing style is quite fluid. Constant adjustments are made as so-called environmental feedback is received. Thus everyone has some power to influence the direction of government.

“ Europeans want to . . . create a sustainable world of peace in the near or not too distant future. . . . They seek to establish a politics based on inclusivity—that is, honoring everyone’s individual dream equally.” Jeremy Rifkin, The European Dream (2004)

This governing style is known as the process model. According to Rifkin, “a new generation of political scientists and policy analysts favored a process approach to governance that would replace the old closed hierarchical model with a new open-systems model. They argued that effective governance is less a matter of imposing, from on high, predetermined decisions on passive recipients at the bottom than of engaging all the actors—government, business, and civil society players—in an ongoing process of deliberation, negotiation, compromise, and consensus with the radical suggestion that the best decisions are the ones reached democratically by everyone affected. The process itself—with its emphasis on continuous feedback—becomes the new governing model” (The European Dream) . This European development is evidence that technology and globalization are dramatically affecting the way government is administered and how people perceive its role.

A strong current is pulling other nations in this direction as well. Even the United States appears to be favoring the process model. According to the new president’s own statements, we can expect to see the Obama administration emphasize the United Nations in matters of international treaties and agreements. This is a small but significant change. The embattled foreign-policy efforts of the previous administration and the current economic crisis have certainly weakened America’s ability to impose its model on other nations, so a European-style process model may seem an appealing alternative. Along with other European countries, even Britain is divesting itself of aspects of its sovereign rights (especially in the area of law) in order to comply with EU membership.

Revolution in Management: The Process Model in Business

In various countries where the process model may not be in evidence, the same decentralized process is nevertheless establishing itself in the way companies operate and do business. New terms, such as peering (organizing horizontally), are being coined to help explain new forms of organization.

Business consultants Don Tapscott and Anthony D. Williams coauthored Wikinomics: How Mass Collaboration Changes Everything . They write, “Due to deep changes in technology, demographics, business, the economy, and the world, we are entering a new age where people participate in the economy like never before. This new participation has reached a tipping point where new forms of mass collaboration are changing how goods and services are invented, produced, marketed, and distributed on a global basis.” As business embraces the new process model of organizational structure, it will be only a matter of time before political structures are impacted.

“ To manage the global economy; . . . to bring about integral and timely disarmament, food security and peace; to guarantee the protection of the environment and to regulate migration: for all this, there is urgent need of a true world political authority.” Pope Benedict XVI, Charity in Truth (Papal Encyclical, July 2009)

In The Starfish and the Spider: The Unstoppable Power of Leaderless Organizations , Ori Brafman and Rod A. Beckstrom boldly assert that “decentralization has been lying dormant for thousands of years. But the advent of the Internet has unleashed this force, knocking down traditional businesses, altering entire industries, affecting how we relate to each other, and influencing world politics.” In other words, we may now have a unique opportunity to actually realize this slumbering ideal through technology.

Thus it appears that new structures are being created in both political and economic realms worldwide. Will this development eventually bring about a new form of universal governance? Will universal peace be the outcome?

Technology is revolutionizing systems of authority around the world. Globalization and the Internet demand new approaches to old problems, world peace included. The process model of government we see developing could become another of mankind’s grand experiments in rulership. But the model has some very troublesome risks, including degenerating moral boundaries and reversion to tyranny . Because past systems have failed, it would be good to weigh the potential downsides of the process model as it applies to Europe.

Looking Past Human Structures

As world history unfolds and humanity continues to grasp for a way to achieve lasting peace, we should consider that Jesus Christ came to deliver the good news of the government of God. It was a message about world government of a different kind. After humans have exhausted every last way to govern themselves apart from God, Christ said He will return to the earth to establish the rule of God’s government over all nations and peoples, and that the world will at last live in peace under the rule of a benevolent government structure.

It is an amazing story. When it is to be realized no one knows precisely, but it will come at a time of man-made crisis such as the world has never before experienced. The Bible addresses the nature of human rule that will exist prior to Christ’s return, and it promises that the government of God will bring the peace that has always eluded humanity.

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United Nations and World Peace Essay

United Nations is an international organization that unites world countries in the common goal to ensure peace and human rights. Even thought it was formed after the Second World War, its peacekeeping efforts have been somewhat limited, as has been proven by a great amount of wars, civil upraises and terrorist acts all over the world.

The United Nations was formed with a great and honorable purpose of keeping peace on the planet. Superpowers have found it their duty and immediate obligation to join the common efforts in stopping violence and human rights violations. One of the major points present in the rules of United Nations is that it will “…first of all, seek a solution by negotiation, enquiry, mediation, conciliation, arbitration, judicial settlement, resort to regional agencies or arrangement, or other peaceful means of their own choice” (Baylis, 313).

The interesting fact is that United Nations admits the use of force in some instances, if necessity demands violence. It is obvious that not all conflicts can be resolved peacefully but if the primary duty of UN is to make sure peace is kept globally, then determining actions must be taken. The nations that are involved in the organizations have enough political and manpower to unite in the withdrawal of all weapons.

It seems pointless for UN forces to make their presence merely visible, in a country where open military violence is taking place. One of UN’s goals is to not interfere and get involved in any violence, but it is able to stay a neutral observer while people, just steps away, are firing at each other.

If the organization presents itself as a world peacemaker than why some countries are not allowed to join? “It has proved to be impossible to reach agreement on new permanent members” (Baylis, 315) but how can anything be done if UN calls something “impossible”? If this cannot be achieved then what is possible? If the world leaders with their superior intellect cannot come to agreement and find a way to make it possible, then how can regular public be expected to keep peaceful?

The fact is that no matter how high and morally correct UN’s goals might be it is still bound by rules and politics that cannot allow certain things. The limitations that exist, clearly illustrate the human nature of the organization. It is not a secret that there were and still are a number of missions that have failed on many levels.

One out of a number examples is the crisis that took place in Rwanda (Sitkowski, 123). Not only the UN forces were killed and injured but the resolution was not achieved to any degree. It is seems strange that genocide and civil wars, as well as rebellions against governments, are taking place and the peacekeeping organization is not able to achieve any cessation of violence.

The rules and policies produced by the United Nations are not centered on a global involvement in de-weaponizing countries, as everyone is full of fear that a group of terrorists will be able to overtake a country that is unarmed. But if this is the case, then the governments should work on devices that will partially paralyze the enemy without significant harm to a person’s health.

There is no doubt that there are more people in the world who want peace and so, if United Nations allowed for everyone wanting to stop violence to join, people could be given designated authority to make sure peace is kept in their community. The decentralization of government would ensure that local authorities take control of any violent outbreaks.

The function of United Nations is representative of the want of people to reach world peace. It is a very respectable cause and a lot has been accomplished but the amount of countries and people participating in peacekeeping is too small, compared to those who upset the order. More countries must be allowed to join, to unite the efforts in fighting violence and preventing wars.

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IvyPanda . "United Nations and World Peace." August 30, 2021. https://ivypanda.com/essays/united-nations-and-world-peace/.

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Earth at Risk in the 21st Century: Rethinking Peace, Environment, Gender, and Human, Water, Health, Food, Energy Security, and Migration pp 43–57 Cite as

Peace and Sustainability in a Globalised World

Úrsula Oswald Spring 3
First Online: 04 April 2020

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Part of the book series: Pioneers in Arts, Humanities, Science, Engineering, Practice ((PAHSEP,volume 18))

On the eve of a new millennium we are facing a globalisation process which embraced, for the first time in human history, what could be termed all of life’s phenomena. This process continues to go beyond those aspects, which are strictly productive: the economy, technology, scientific progress and the relations of a predetermined productive process (Hunter in Sustainable Production: The corporate challenge, industry and environment. Routledge, London, 1995 ).

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The original text was translated from Spanish to English by Catherine Barnett Wade and was published in Úrsula Oswald Spring (Ed.) (2000). Peace Studies from a Global Perspective. Human Needs in a Cooperative World Delhi, Maadhyam Book Services, pp. 88–104. The author has updated some reflections. The final revised text was language edited in January 2018 by Vanessa Greatorex.

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Oswald Spring, Ú. (2020). Peace and Sustainability in a Globalised World. In: Earth at Risk in the 21st Century: Rethinking Peace, Environment, Gender, and Human, Water, Health, Food, Energy Security, and Migration . Pioneers in Arts, Humanities, Science, Engineering, Practice, vol 18. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-38569-9_3

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essay on world peace

Category: Essays and Paragraphs On November 22, 2018 By Mary

World peace

World peace can be referred to as the state of people from all countries in the world being happy and living harmoniously with each other.

World peace creates one international community that can concentrate on greater issues that are affecting the planet like climate change.

When countries work together, they benefit their citizens since they can freely move from one country to another for employment, education or tourism.

Importance of world peace

World peace leads to increased globalization . Globalization is the act where people from different countries are able to interact freely with each other in various aspects.
World peace also leads to the promotion of tourism . With peace, people are freer to tour any country of their choice without fear of violence.
World peace also contributes to cultural exchanges . People are able to interact freely with each other and they can learn different cultures from other people.
World peace also contributes to more developed economies . This is because people are able to carry out both domestic and foreign investments without fear of the risk of future violence.
World peace also contributes to the unification of people to fight unfair vices. People are able to speak with one voice to get rid of vices like racism, religious discrimination and gender inequality.
World peace also contributes to the reduction of wars . Warring countries or internal nation conflicts can be reduced if world peace existed. War is the main cause of human suffering in the world.
With world peace, you are also assured of increased freedom of people . People get more freedom whether they are from different religions, race or country. This promotes global cohesion.

How to achieve world peace

We can achieve world peace through having international bodies that will ensure that every nation upholds world peace. Such a body is United Nations and other world organizations that ensure every country has the responsibility of promoting peace.
We can also achieve world peace through upholding democracy . The main cause of world violence is dictatorship. When countries have the freedom to vote, they are able to choose the right leaders who are peace friendly.
World peace is also achieved through globalization . When globalization is encouraged, countries will uphold peace since they will avoid going into war with countries that have economic ties with them.
We achieve world peace when there is equal representation of nations in international bodies. This will ensure that no nation is oppressed and no nation is left behind. When some nations are not represented, it creates inequality which may stir violence.
World peace can also be achieved by raising awareness of the importance of world peace. Nations can create awareness to their citizens by teaching them on the benefits that they will get when they have peaceful coexistence with other nations.
World peace can also be achieved by sharing the country’s wealth equally . This is by giving equal opportunities to all and not overtaxing the poor. This will reduce the cases of rebel movements.

World peace is very important in the growth and prosperity of the entire global community. This is because with world peace, we are able to have more social cohesion and interactions that are beneficial to everyone.

Op-Ed: How can cultural diversity drive peace and development?

Jun 25, 2019

Opinion: What is one way we can reinforce cultural diversity as a driving factor of peace and development? Here, the world’s leading peacebuilding NGOs answer the question in honor of World Day for Cultural Diversity for Dialogue and Development. This story was first published in Generations for Peace .

Monica Curca | Founder & Managing Director at Activate Labs

I believe that whenever there is an effort intentionally or unintentionally to erase, diminish or discount the cultural lived experience of any person or group it is in the service to violence and oppression. That is to say that as peacebuilders we have the obligation to create spaces of mutuality and cultural diversity as a universal protocol to combat violence and oppression. One way we do this at Activate Labs is by honoring and amplifying cultural diversity through first person storytelling – by which each person is centered as the owner and alchemist of their own histories and identities.

Uzra Zeya | CEO at Alliance for Peacebuilding

Every day, peacebuilders navigate danger and discord to prevent violent conflict and sustain peace. While every country is unique, some truths are universal, namely that inclusion generates more lasting peace. The evidence case is strong, from Liberia to Northern Ireland to Colombia. As a field, however, peacebuilders should ask ourselves if we are fully modelling inclusion in how our organizations are structured and operate. With ample evidence that diverse groups produce better results, we can aim higher— from modelling inclusion in organizational leadership, to giving local, diverse, and youth actors greater voice at gatherings. Let us draw inspiration from Mahatma Gandhi’s words, “If we could change ourselves, the tendencies in the world would also change…We need not wait to see what others do.”

Aseel Zahran | Education Specialist at Generations For Peace Institute

Reinforcing cultural diversity requires a commitment to inclusion as a dynamic collaborative process that enhances the participation and contribution – rather than mere representation – of everyone within a community. Inclusion is also not just about providing a platform where people can express their different cultures and ways of being, but also acknowledging that everyone can bring something valuable and unique that can enrich the whole, and that everyone can contribute to fostering social cohesion. In fact, it is the responsibility of everyone.

At Generations For Peace, we are constantly grappling with how to ensure inclusion in our learning spaces. We create safe spaces where young people from different backgrounds feel safe and supported. They learn to be grounded in who they are, but also to respect and honour the different identities around them.

Friederike Bubenzer | Senior Project Leader at the Institute For Justice and Reconciliation (IJR)

I believe that really listening to one another’s stories has the potential to open our eyes to the beauty of the difference in the Other. When we hear those stories, we see each other in one another, and we are united by our common humanity rather than divided by difference. As the Nigerian write Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie says: ‘Stories matter. Stories have been used to dispossess, to malign, but stories can also be used to empower and to humanize. Stories can break the dignity of a people, but stories can also repair that broken dignity.’

Charlotte Melly | Head of International Programmes at Peace Direct

Reinforcing cultural diversity as a driving factor of peace and development means providing opportunities for dialogue and interaction which respond to community needs. This means working at the grassroots to understand the contextual knowledge and diversity of civil society and developing tools that allow local groups to contribute to peace in the way that works best in their context. For example, in Nigeria, this means empowering young people from diverse backgrounds to find common ground through sports. In DR Congo, this means bridging ethnic divides through agricultural cooperatives that not only increase understanding between participants, but also build resilient communities. Nurturing cultural diversity for peace means opening the spaces for dialogue and reconciliation that resonate in the contexts and cultures themselves.

Todd Shuster | Co-Founder of The Peace Studio

As human beings, we are all the “same kind of different.” Each one of us has a unique mind, personality, and appearance. Each one of us has inherited traits as well as characteristics shaped by our education and life experiences. Most everybody on this planet wants the same things—peace, health, safety, comfort, personal attainment and fulfillment, a sense of purpose and meaning, love, friendship, family.

When we notice differences between ourselves and others, we might feel uncomfortable or unsafe. At times we may feel so frightened that we might separate ourselves from those who don’t seem to be quite the same as us. In some cases, we may even become violent because of such differences. It’s the unfamiliarity that breeds corrupted thinking and destructive behaviors. The salve, then, is coming to know others whose culture, or way of being, or appearance is different from ours. When our friendships at work and in our communities embrace such diversity, any differences we detect in others become familiar to us. They then come to seem less peculiar. And then we realize that we are, indeed, the same kind of different. We’re all in the boat of life together. We are all in fact quite similar. We can be with one another in peace.

Malu Marella‐Sulit | General Manager, Programs & Communications at Sport at the Service of Humanity (SSH)

Intolerance and hatred are major deterrents to peace and understanding. They are rooted in ignorance and fear of the unknown and the unfamiliar. Therefore, one way we can pave the way for inter-cultural understanding is to create environments where people, regardless of culture and beliefs, are able to engage with one another through a shared interest or activity. In the process, they get to know each other and find common ground.

Sport has this unique power to celebrate our common humanity because it brings people together – allowing them to meet each other across boundaries, sharing a common love for the game, competing on equal terms, following the same rules and respecting differences even in competition.

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Globalisation promotes peace
Therefore, globalisation promotes peace through two channels: one from the increased advantage peace holds for bilateral trade interdependence and the other from a country's integration into the global market, regardless of the size of trade with each trading partner. "Globalisation" has been one of the most salient features of the world ...
Globalization in Politics and on the World Peace Research Paper
Globalization in politics and the peace in the world. Globalization has led into loss of sovereignty in governments. Through globalization, people, goods, money, and ideas have become freer to move than they were before. The government's control over people and their businesses has therefore reduced (Neil 2004, 123).
PDF Eﬀects of globalization on peace and stability: Implications for
2.1 Globalization, and peace and stability Globalization is essential to peace and stability, and hence to governance2 (Asongu et al., 2016a). Bonaglia, Braga de Maceda, and Bussolo (2001) found that globalization as trade openness reduces corruption. Lalountas, Manolas, and Vavouras (2011) and Asongu (2014a)
The Relationship Between Globalization and Peace
Globalization is analytically conceptualized as a global market of instrumentalities in which everything, like the lingua franca, is common — culture, communication, transport. Globalization is then analyzed with reference to peace and conflicts. A starting point is the observation that globalization needs peace and pacified environments ...
Does Globalization Bring War or Peace?
All else being equal, cooperative and multilateral security policies will likely encourage peace, while confrontational and unilateral policies are more likely to lead to conflict. Beyond this, globalization influences the ways these policies may interact in specific instances.
PDF Globalization and World Peace
101465. Globalization and World Peace. by James D. Wolfensohn President The World Bank Group Washington, D.C., November 27, 2001. Let me say that my appearance here today, brief as it is, is a result of a lunch I had with Fred last week, when he told me about this initiative. He allowed me to come along today because I wanted to say a few things.
Unity with diversity: The challenge of globalization
Perhaps the most immediate one is the challenge of "globalization". The world has become "smaller", and distances "shorter" in what appears to be a shrinking planet. The innovative advances in the area of communications are revolutionizing the relationships between nations and peoples of different cultures and values.
Globalization of Peace
Smith, Jackie, 'Globalization of Peace', in Oliver P. Richmond, and Gëzim Visoka (eds), ... Conventional scholarship on peace and peacebuilding fail to consider how the capitalist world-system is implicated in the structural violence that fuels violent conflicts around the world. This helps to account for the widespread failures of state-led ...
Globalization: The Pathway to Prosperity, Freedom and Peace
Globalization, contrary to the opinion of many HRD professionals, has led to a better world, one in which greater numbers of people have the opportunity for peace, prosperity and freedom. Anti-global critics are tragically wrong for they condemn millions of people to poverty, disease, force migrations, ethical strife, and terrorism.
Economic Interdependence, Globalization, and Peaceful Change
Whether economic interdependence will bring peaceful change has divided scholars of international relations for more than three centuries. Legitimate concerns about the role of "isms" in the study of international relations notwithstanding (Lake 2011), the traditional distinction between liberalism, realism, and Marxism/neo-Marxism generates three schools with internally consistent views ...
Does Globalization Contribute to Peace? A Critical Survey of the
The authors demonstrate that the pacific effect of economic integration hinges on democratic structures, the size of the global system, the nature of the trade goods and a reduced influence of the military on political decisions. In sum, the volume demonstrates how important the still fragile "capitalist peace" is.
Globalisation: factors of unity or division, depending on the
It sets out three scenarios: (1) a globalisation that thrives; (2) the emergence of a multipolar world at the economic, political and social levels, including regional corporate champions that would supplant global multinationals; and. (3) the end of globalisation, in a similar way to what happened after 1913, with less cooperation between States.
Globalization and Peace: Assessing New Directions in the Study ...
Faculty of Public Administration, University of Konstantz. 'Globalization' has largely superseded the term 'economic interdependence'. growing links between nations, economies, and societies. The effects that the world system has on social equality, the environment, and economic growth are, disputed.
From Globalization to Global Peace?
Globalization and the Internet demand new approaches to old problems, world peace included. The process model of government we see developing could become another of mankind's grand experiments in rulership. But the model has some very troublesome risks, including degenerating moral boundaries and reversion to tyranny.
Globalization's Peace: The Impact of Economic Connections on State
The Liberal Illusion: Does Trade Promote Peace? Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. Barbieri, Katherine. 1996. Economic Interdependence: A Path to Peace or a Source of Interstate Conflict? Journal of Peace Research 33 (1): 29-49. Buzan, Barry. 1984. Economic Structure and International Security: The Limits of the Liberal Case.
Globalization: The Road to Worldwide Peace and Prosperity Essay
Most importantly, a globalized society would promote the ultimate cooperation needed to achieve true and complete peace. An integrated world would help destroy the divisions that plague communities around the globe by making every person, group, and nation. Free Essay: Everybody's talking about Bagism, Shagism, Dragism, Madism Ragism, Tagism ...
Maintain International Peace and Security
UN Photo/Marco Dormino. The United Nations was created in 1945, following the devastation of the Second World War, with one central mission: the maintenance of international peace and security ...
United Nations and World Peace
United Nations and World Peace Essay. Exclusively available on IvyPanda. United Nations is an international organization that unites world countries in the common goal to ensure peace and human rights. Even thought it was formed after the Second World War, its peacekeeping efforts have been somewhat limited, as has been proven by a great amount ...
Peace and Sustainability in a Globalised World
The complexity of these global problems requires deep reflection and new solutions, which are capable of linking a general concept like that of sustainable development (Urquidi 1997) to universal values such as equality, justice, peace, and democracy (Aguilar 1997).As the paradigm to achieve well-being for everybody, an ever increasingly interrelated and globalised world clashes with the ...
Effects of globalization on peace and stability: Implications for
The results indicate that the impacts on governance of peace and stability from globalization defined as trade are stronger than those of peace and stability resulting from globalization taken to ...
Peace through globalization and capitalism? Prospects of two liberal
The security externalities of globalization and capitalism continue to play an influential role in peace research. Typical contributions to these interrelated areas of scientific inquiry address the hope that the external openness (commercial liberalism) and the internal freedom of an economy (capitalist peace) pacify interstate as well as intrastate relations.
essay on world peace
World Peace: Essay on World Peace. Category: Essays and ParagraphsOn November 22, 2018 By Mary. World peace. World peace can be referred to as the state of people from all countries in the world being happy and living harmoniously with each other. World peace creates one international community that can concentrate on greater issues that are ...
Op-Ed: How can cultural diversity drive peace and development?
Reinforcing cultural diversity as a driving factor of peace and development means providing opportunities for dialogue and interaction which respond to community needs. This means working at the grassroots to understand the contextual knowledge and diversity of civil society and developing tools that allow local groups to contribute to peace in ...