economic development in the philippines essay

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Over the past decade, the Philippine development story has attracted international attention as it transformed from being the “Sick Man of Asia” to “Asia’s Rising Tiger”. However, the country’s strong growth momentum was abruptly interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, which continues to cast a huge shadow over its development outlook. With the country now at the crossroads, this paper reflects on and draws lessons for economic development and policy by examining the country’s three main economic episodes over the post-independence era: (a) the period of moderately strong growth from 1946 to the late 1970s, (b) the tumultuous crisis years from the late 1970s to the early 1990s, and (c) the period from the early 1990s to the 2019 when it rejoined the dynamic East Asian mainstream. Through comparative analysis, the paper also seeks to understand the country’s development dynamics and political economy. We conclude by highlighting elements of a recovery and reform agenda in the post-pandemic era.

Key Words: Philippines, economic development, economic history, political economy, institutions, COVID-19, ASEAN, comparative analysis

JEL codes: E02, I0, N15, O10, O43, O53, P52

Updated: 24 April 2024 / Responsible Officer: Crawford Engagement / Page Contact: CAP Web Team

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Philippine economic development, looking backwards and forward: An interpretative essay

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The Philippine economy under the pandemic: From Asian tiger to sick man again?

Subscribe to the center for asia policy studies bulletin, ronald u. mendoza ronald u. mendoza dean and professor, ateneo school of government - ateneo de manila university @profrum.

August 2, 2021

In 2019, the Philippines was one of the fastest growing economies in the world. It finally shed its “sick man of Asia” reputation obtained during the economic collapse towards the end of the Ferdinand Marcos regime in the mid-1980s. After decades of painstaking reform — not to mention paying back debts incurred under the dictatorship — the country’s economic renaissance took root in the decade prior to the pandemic. Posting over 6 percent average annual growth between 2010 and 2019 (computed from the Philippine Statistics Authority data on GDP growth rates at constant 2018 prices), the Philippines was touted as the next Asian tiger economy .

That was prior to COVID-19.

The rude awakening from the pandemic was that a services- and remittances-led growth model doesn’t do too well in a global disease outbreak. The Philippines’ economic growth faltered in 2020 — entering negative territory for the first time since 1999 — and the country experienced one of the deepest contractions in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) that year (Figure 1).

Figure 1: GDP growth for selected ASEAN countries

And while the government forecasts a slight rebound in 2021, some analysts are concerned over an uncertain and weak recovery, due to the country’s protracted lockdown and inability to shift to a more efficient containment strategy. The Philippines has relied instead on draconian mobility restrictions across large sections of the country’s key cities and growth hubs every time a COVID-19 surge threatens to overwhelm the country’s health system.

What went wrong?

How does one of the fastest growing economies in Asia falter? It would be too simplistic to blame this all on the pandemic.

First, the Philippines’ economic model itself appears more vulnerable to disease outbreak. It is built around the mobility of people, yet tourism, services, and remittances-fed growth are all vulnerable to pandemic-induced lockdowns and consumer confidence decline. International travel plunged, tourism came to a grinding halt, and domestic lockdowns and mobility restrictions crippled the retail sector, restaurants, and hospitality industry. Fortunately, the country’s business process outsourcing (BPO) sector is demonstrating some resilience — yet its main markets have been hit heavily by the pandemic, forcing the sector to rapidly upskill and adjust to emerging opportunities under the new normal.

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Second, pandemic handling was also problematic. Lockdown is useful if it buys a country time to strengthen health systems and test-trace-treat systems. These are the building blocks of more efficient containment of the disease. However, if a country fails to strengthen these systems, then it squanders the time that lockdown affords it. This seems to be the case for the Philippines, which made global headlines for implementing one of the world’s longest lockdowns during the pandemic, yet failed to flatten its COVID-19 curve.

At the time of writing, the Philippines is again headed for another hard lockdown and it is still trying to graduate to a more efficient containment strategy amidst rising concerns over the delta variant which has spread across Southeast Asia . It seems stuck with on-again, off-again lockdowns, which are severely damaging to the economy, and will likely create negative expectations for future COVID-19 surges (Figure 2).

Figure 2 clarifies how the Philippine government resorted to stricter lockdowns to temper each surge in COVID-19 in the country so far.

Figure 2: Community quarantine regimes during the COVID-19 pandemic, Philippine National Capital Region (NCR ), March 2020 to June 2021

If the delta variant and other possible variants are near-term threats, then the lack of efficient containment can be expected to force the country back to draconian mobility restrictions as a last resort. Meanwhile, only two months of social transfers ( ayuda ) were provided by the central government during 16 months of lockdown by mid-2021. All this puts more pressure on an already weary population reeling from deep recession, job displacement, and long-term risks on human development . Low social transfers support in the midst of joblessness and rising hunger is also likely to weaken compliance with mobility restriction policies.

Third, the Philippines suffered from delays in its vaccination rollout which was initially hobbled by implementation and supply issues, and later affected by lingering vaccine hesitancy . These are all likely to delay recovery in the Philippines.

By now there are many clear lessons both from the Philippine experience and from emerging international best practices. In order to mount a more successful economic recovery, the Philippines must address the following key policy issues:

Build a more efficient containment strategy particularly against the threat of possible new variants principally by strengthening the test-trace-treat system. Based on lessons from other countries, test-trace-treat systems usually also involve comprehensive mass-testing strategies to better inform both the public and private sectors on the true state of infections among the population. In addition, integrated mobility databases (not fragmented city-based ones) also capacitate more effective and timely tracing. This kind of detailed and timely data allows for government and the private sector to better coordinate on nuanced containment strategies that target areas and communities that need help due to outbreak risk. And unlike a generalized lockdown, this targeted and data-informed strategy could allow other parts of the economy to remain more open than otherwise.
Strengthen the sufficiency and transparency of direct social protection in order to give immediate relief to poor and low-income households already severely impacted by the mishandling of the pandemic. This requires a rebalancing of the budget in favor of education, health, and social protection spending, in lieu of an over-emphasis on build-build-build infrastructure projects. This is also an opportunity to enhance the social protection system to create a safety net and concurrent database that covers not just the poor but also the vulnerable low- and lower-middle- income population. The chief concern here would be to introduce social protection innovations that prevent middle income Filipinos from sliding into poverty during a pandemic or other crisis.
Ramp-up vaccination to cover at least 70 percent of the population as soon as possible, and enlist the further support of the private sector and civil society in order to keep improving vaccine rollout. An effective communications campaign needs to be launched to counteract vaccine hesitancy, building on trustworthy institutions (like academia, the Catholic Church, civil society and certain private sector partners) in order to better protect the population against the threat of delta or another variant affecting the Philippines. It will also help if parts of government could stop the politically-motivated fearmongering on vaccines, as had occurred with the dengue fever vaccine, Dengvaxia, which continues to sow doubts and fears among parts of the population .
Create a build-back-better strategy anchored on universal and inclusive healthcare. Among other things, such a strategy should a) acknowledge the critically important role of the private sector and civil society in pandemic response and healthcare sector cooperation, and b) underpin pandemic response around lasting investments in institutions and technology that enhance contact tracing (e-platforms), testing (labs), and universal healthcare with lower out-of-pocket costs and higher inclusivity. The latter requires a more inclusive, well-funded, and better-governed health insurance system.

As much of ASEAN reels from the spread of the delta variant, it is critical that the Philippines takes these steps to help allay concerns over the country’s preparedness to handle new variants emerging, while also recalibrating expectations in favor of resuscitating its economy. Only then can the Philippines avoid becoming the sick man of Asia again, and return to the rapid and steady growth of the pre-pandemic decade.

The Philippine Economy: Development, Policies, and Challenges

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Professor of Economics and Head of the Southeast Asia Economy Professor in the Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies and the Asia-Pacific School of Economics and Management

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The Philippines is one of the world's development puzzles. Despite having many of the same conditions for successful economic growth as its neighboring East Asian countries, the country missed out almost completely on the Asian boom and never became one of the “Asian tiger” economies. This book presents a comprehensive overview and thorough analysis of the Philippine economic experience. It covers a wide range of specialized subjects including macroeconomic policy, public finance, regional development, social conditions, and the agricultural, industrial, and service sectors. It then highlights future challenges that need to be addressed if the country is to embark on a sustainable, durable, and equitable growth trajectory.

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Philippines Economic Update: Investing in the Future

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

In 2017, the Philippines was among the top three growth performers in the region.
The medium-term growth outlook for the Philippines remains positive but domestic risks are more prominent.
Higher real wages are essential to achieve shared prosperity and inclusive growth.

ECONOMIC AND POLICY DEVELOPMENTS

In 2017, the Philippines was among the top three growth performers in the region. Only Vietnam and China did better. The Philippine economy grew from 6.9 percent year-on-year in 2016 to 6.7 percent year-on-year in 2017. Growth was anchored in strong exports, while investment growth significantly slowed and consumption growth moderated. The Philippines’ annual exports rose sharply in 2017 and became the main engine of economic growth, while imports continued to grow by double-digits. Investment growth slowed in 2017, following two consecutive years of rapid expansion, and climbing inflation slowed real wage growth and contributed to a moderation in private consumption growth.

Sustained economic growth is likely to continue to contribute to poverty reduction. Under the assumption that the responsiveness of the poverty rate to economic growth follows historical trends, the poverty rate, based on the lower middle-income poverty line of US$3.20/day, is projected to decline from 27.0 percent in 2015 to 22.9 percent and 21.7 percent in 2018 and 2019, respectively, as economic growth remains robust. These projections would imply a continuing trend of one million Filipinos being lifted out of poverty each year. Factors that have been driving poverty reduction in the Philippines include the movement of employment out of agriculture, a sustained inflow of remittances, and the government’s conditional cash-transfer program.

PROSPECTS AND RISKS

The country’s medium-term growth outlook remains positive. The Philippine economy is projected to continue on its expansionary path and grow at an annual rate of 6.7 percent in both 2018 and 2019. In 2020, growth is expected to level at 6.6 percent. The economy is currently growing at its potential, making productive investment in physical and human capital essential so that the economy can continue to grow along its current growth trajectory. Investment growth hinges on the government’s ability to effectively and timely implement its ambitious public investment program. Moreover, the government needs to clarify the role of the private sector in its investment program.

Domestic risks are becoming more prominent. Inflationary pressure is expected to intensify in 2018 due to both domestic and external factors. The Philippine economy is also at risk of overheating. The implementation of the public infrastructure program is vital to the country’s growth outlook, as private investment is expected to weaken. Prudent fiscal management and the implementation of the government’s tax reform agenda could help secure the country’s fiscal sustainability. External risks remain present, especially a faster-than-expected policy normalization in advanced economies that could trigger financial volatility and increase capital outflows from the Philippines. Renewed protectionist sentiments in several advanced economies will also elevate policy uncertainty, which may disrupt trade and investments.

Higher real wages are essential to achieve shared prosperity and inclusive growth. In recent years, the Philippine economy has made great strides in delivering inclusive growth, evidenced by the declining poverty rates and a falling Gini coefficient. Unemployment has reached historic low rates, but underemployment remains high, near its 18-20 percent decade-long average. More importantly, unlike its high-performing East Asian neighbors with booming manufacturing sectors that provide large numbers of labor-intensive jobs, a majority of Filipino workers that transition out of agriculture generally end up in low-end service jobs. Thus, while employment increased between 2006 and 2015, mean wages remained stagnant, with only a four percent increase in real terms over the same period. Low job quality and slow growth of real wages are the missing links to higher shared prosperity.

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Press Release: Philippines: Investments in Infrastructure and Human Capital Key to Sustaining Inclusive Growth

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Essay on Economic Issues In The Philippines

Students are often asked to write an essay on Economic Issues In The Philippines in their schools and colleges. And if you’re also looking for the same, we have created 100-word, 250-word, and 500-word essays on the topic.

Let’s take a look…

100 Words Essay on Economic Issues In The Philippines

The Philippines suffers from high poverty rates. Many people lack basic needs like food, shelter, and clothing. This is because jobs are scarce and many are low paying. The government is trying to create more jobs and improve living conditions, but progress is slow.

Unemployment

Unemployment is another big issue. There aren’t enough jobs for everyone. This leads to people not having money to buy things they need. The government is working on this problem by trying to attract more businesses to the Philippines.

Education in the Philippines is not always good quality. Many schools lack resources like books and computers. This makes it hard for students to learn and succeed. The government knows this is a problem and is working to improve schools.

Infrastructure

The Philippines needs better infrastructure, like roads and buildings. Poor infrastructure can make it hard for businesses to operate and for people to get to work. The government is investing in infrastructure to try to fix this problem.

Corruption is a big problem in the Philippines. It makes it hard for the government to improve the economy because money is not always used correctly. The government is trying to stop corruption, but it is a difficult problem to solve.

250 Words Essay on Economic Issues In The Philippines

Introduction.

The Philippines, a Southeast Asian country, faces numerous economic problems. These issues include poverty, unemployment, and corruption. Let’s explore these issues in detail.

Poverty is a significant problem in the Philippines. Despite the country’s economic growth, many people still live in harsh conditions. They struggle to afford basic needs like food, shelter, and education. The government is trying to reduce poverty, but progress is slow.

Another big issue is unemployment. Many Filipinos do not have jobs, especially young people. This problem is due to a lack of job opportunities and skills mismatch. A lot of people have skills that do not match the jobs available.

Corruption is also a major issue in the Philippines. It affects the economy because money that should be used for public services ends up in the wrong hands. This problem hinders economic development and increases poverty.

To sum up, the Philippines faces several economic issues. These problems include poverty, unemployment, and corruption. Solving these issues is not easy, but with the right policies and actions, the country can improve its economy.

500 Words Essay on Economic Issues In The Philippines

The economy of the philippines.

The Philippines is a country in Southeast Asia made up of over 7,000 islands. Its economy is mixed, meaning it has both private businesses and government involvement. The country’s economy has seen growth in recent years, but it still faces many challenges.

Issue 1: Poverty

One of the main economic problems in the Philippines is poverty. Despite economic growth, a big part of the population still lives in poverty. This means many people don’t have enough money for basic needs like food, shelter, and education. Poverty is more common in rural areas where farming is the main source of income.

Issue 2: Unemployment

Unemployment is another big problem. This means there are people who want to work but can’t find jobs. The COVID-19 pandemic made this worse, as many businesses had to close. The government is trying to create more jobs, but it’s a slow process.

Issue 3: Inequality

Inequality is another issue. This means that the wealth in the country is not shared equally. A small group of people own a big part of the country’s wealth, while many others have very little. This makes it hard for people to improve their lives.

Issue 4: Natural Disasters

The Philippines is often hit by natural disasters like typhoons, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions. These disasters damage homes, roads, and businesses, which hurts the economy. The government has to spend a lot of money to repair the damage and help people recover.

Issue 5: Dependence on Overseas Workers

A lot of Filipinos work in other countries and send money back home. This money is a big part of the country’s income. But it also means the country depends a lot on other countries’ economies. If these countries face economic problems, it can hurt the Philippines too.

Ways to Improve

To solve these problems, the government is working on several things. They are trying to help farmers by providing better tools and training. They are also trying to create more jobs, especially in manufacturing and services. They are investing in education to give people better skills for these jobs. And they are working on improving the country’s infrastructure to make it more resilient to natural disasters.

In conclusion, while the Philippines has made progress, it still faces many economic challenges. By focusing on reducing poverty, creating jobs, reducing inequality, and improving resilience to natural disasters, the country can continue to grow and improve the lives of its people.

That’s it! I hope the essay helped you.

If you’re looking for more, here are essays on other interesting topics:

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Happy studying!

Rethinking Philippine Development

This essay attempts to challenge conventional perspectives in crafting Philippine development policies. The Philippines has been enmeshed in a development paradox where the country has promising potential to develop given its pool of human and natural resources but has failed to take off and develop due to persistent systemic problems in the country’s political and economic institutions. The essay explored various dimensions in development economics, political economy, Philippine history, and Philippine culture in order to shed some light behind the country’s development puzzle. From these reflections, we argue that development policy can only be relevant and effective if we genuinely include Filipino behavior and institutions into the analytical framework. But to do that, we need serious rethinking in our core economic principles, public policy prescriptions, and development strategies. The fast-emerging perspective in new institutional economics is seen as a suggested framework in fine tuning our policies to fit Filipino institutional and behavioral contexts.

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Farruque Ahmed

Miguel Antonio Barretto Garcia

The Philippines remains entangled in a web of economic, political, and social difficulty. Many have already pronounced the Philippines as a ‘development puzzle’ or the ‘sick man of Asia.’ The problem actually involves less of deeming the Philippines as impossible to revive the country towards development but more of recasting the problem with perspectives that would fit in addressing the issues. The path breaking framework proposed by North, Wallis, and Weingast (2009) appears to provide that promise of shedding more light to the compounding problems in the Philippines. We use Garcia’s (2011) model of asymmetric equilibrium to describe the natural state. In the Natural State, there exists an asymmetric equilibrium creates various two types of elites—leaders and ordinaries. Leaders play Stackelberg when faced with ordinaries while ordinaries play Cournot-Nash with leaders. It turns out the institution of the Natural State and its rules in controlling violence naturally emerges when elites have asymmetric levels of power, that is, they cooperate and compete within their elite group.

Philippine Studies

Roderick Galam

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We develop a simple theoretical model to demonstrate that elites exist in an asymmetric equilibrium regime. In our simple political game, asymmetry is shown by differentiating political agents into clubs of ‘political leaders’ and ‘elites’ to denote differences in political power. Political leaders play Stackelberg when faced with elites, elites play Cournot-Nash with political leaders, and but they play Cournot-Nash within their own clubs. Asymmetry in the political regime provides an incentive structure favorable to both political leaders and the subject population. Elites always have an incentive to turn the regime symmetric. Comparing the rents extracted in asymmetric and symmetric regimes, political agents prefer to choose a symmetric regime and set up a homogenous club. But with political power differences as our default, symmetric equilibria with homogenous clubs are internally unstable. Because of the internal instability of symmetric equilibria, political leaders and elites struggle in a tug-of-war whether to keep equilibrium asymmetric or to shift to a symmetric equilibrium with a heterogeneous club. Political strategies, e.g., patron-client relationships, bossism, political families, naturally occur in the model as a result of this conflict. Hence, political strategies have to exist in asymmetric equilibrium. In effect, asymmetry provides a unified argument to all these political strategies.

Like many Ilokano writers, poet-fictionist Herman Garcia Tabin has never made his position on the Marcos dictatorship known. His works, which were written in the early 1980s and bound with the conditions produced by the regime, do not explicitly denounce Marcos’s regime. However, they may be read as critiquing the social reality engendered by the dictatorship. Through a rhythmanalysis that implicates the constitutive role of the state and capital, this article examines depictions of life experiences of Metro Manila’s impoverished people in Tabin’s works. Tracing and following Tabin’s moves and movements provide clues to that which he has not publicly avowed or disavowed.

Amado Mendoza

“Bad institutions, it appears, can overcome natural resource bounties, geographical advantages, and extremely favorable initial conditions. Philippine history supplies us with the stark reasons behind low-quality institutions. The choices made by our leaders obviously made a big difference.”

The Journal of Peasant Studies

Leonora Angeles

Macro-level studies remain insufficient in explaining localized failures of agriculture-industry synergies (AIS). Learning from long-term ethnographic and observational fieldwork, as well as semi-structured inquiries with agrarian capitalists and farmers in an urbanizing rurality outside Metro Manila, we re-contextualize and re-scale AIS failures. Weak synergies are symptomatic of i) extractive institutions and capital accumulation between agrarian capitalists and peasants, and between elites and the state and ii) major institutional gaps. These dynamics have simultaneously furthered local de-industrialization and weak agrarianization, failing to create linkages. The interplay between local institutions and behaviours of capitalists and peasant classes must inform future AIS development.

Amado Jr. Mendoza

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Recipe for economic growth in the Philippines: invest in infrastructure, education, and job creation

Rogier van den brink.

Economic news coming from the Philippines is surprisingly positive, and this has not gone unnoticed in international circles, judging by the number of inquiries we—the World Bank economic team in Manila that I am now leading—are getting. Our GDP growth forecast for 2012 (included in the new Philippines Quarterly Update report) is a solid 4.6 percent, while the first quarter saw an even more respectable growth rate of 6.4 percent. Other good news: foreign direct investment doubled in the first quarter, exports were up by 18 percent, and two ratings agencies upgraded their outlook on the Philippines.

However, the economy faces two challenges going forward: it will need to defend itself against a global slowdown , and it will also need to create a more inclusive growth pattern—one that creates more and better jobs, because performance on job creation has not been part of the positive news coming from the Philippines for quite a while now.

While the economy has proven quite resilient during previous global crises, the current European debt drama and the slowdown in China will undoubtedly also affect the Philippines. Vulnerability to external shocks is moderated by a current account in surplus, international reserves at very comfortable levels, a flexible exchange rate, and a banking sector which is not unduly exposed to foreign liabilities. These are good first lines of defense. The second line of defense will need to come from higher productivity and improved competitiveness.

Why is the economy still facing the challenge of creating more and better jobs? Hasn’t the Philippine labor force already shown itself to be internationally quite competitive? The remittances sent home by Filipino workers have held up well during past crises, and are even now continuing to grow. International business process outsourcing firms (e.g. call centers) have also discovered the efficiency of the workforce. They are making the country a world class destination for such services. The challenge exists because of lack of overall investment which would make even more laborers productive and wealthier.

In short, Filipino labor needs more capital . Only then will growth become more inclusive, and create more and better jobs. That capital needs to come from government investing more in infrastructure and education , and it needs to come from businesses investing more; businesses, both large and small.

However, is it possible to invest more in such an inclusive growth pattern, while the world economy is slumping? We think it is—because to prepare for a slowdown, or to invest in infrastructure and education, you need the same things . First, you need to create fiscal space, i.e. you need to raise more revenues, so that you can continue to spend more on infrastructure and public services even during a global downturn. But raising public revenues has been a perennial problem for the Philippines. A young Paul Krugman pointed this out as early as 1992 in “Transforming the Philippine Economy.” In this regard, one is waiting with bated breath for the passage of a strong “sin” tax law—named for its sharp increases in the taxation of cigarettes and alcohol.

And second, to remain competitive in a more difficult global environment, and to allow more businesses to grow and create jobs, you need an improved investment climate, so that firms of all sizes can thrive and produce the jobs needed. For instance, the country still has its work cut out for itself on reducing the cost of doing business and addressing infrastructure bottlenecks.

However, the current administration is clearly committed to getting the job done, and not afraid to tackle corruption and vested interests at the highest levels in its quest to achieve inclusive growth. When commitment, opportunity and necessity align, as they do now, the chances for success look as good as they have ever been. If I am right, the Philippines would beat the global trend, and become the next success story. Or am I too optimistic?

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What does 2023 hold for the Philippines’ economy?

The COVID-19 pandemic and other geopolitical events have caused a global crisis over the past couple of years. Major upheavals of this scale are not unknown—in the 20th century, various significant events shook the world, like both World Wars and the Cold War. Between these periods of disruption, global events played out across three “eras”: the Post-War Boom after the Second World War, the Era of Contention from 1972 to 1974, and the Era of Markets from 1989 to 1992, each of which had distinct characteristics and opportunities.

The effects of the current crisis, both humanitarian and economic, cannot be underestimated. However, as the world continues to emerge from the pandemic, business leaders can take advantage of these upheavals, and shape innovation and growth—as evidenced in previous eras—by anticipating future disruptions and shaping strategies accordingly. This kind of “era thinking” is particularly valuable in the Philippines, where disruptions caused by the conflict in Ukraine and international supply-chain crises have had a clear impact.

Looking ahead into 2023, the economic forecast for the Philippines remains a moving target. After a record 10 percent contraction in 2020, the country may bounce back in 2023 with projected growth of around 5.3 percent, though it will hardly rise above preCOVID-19 levels (exhibit).

Key challenges face the country: significantly high unemployment numbers; a high inflation rate (forecast to reach 5.1 percent in 2023); rising policy rates; import and export bottlenecks; and the declining strength of the Philippine peso against the American dollar. 1 “2023 inflation seen topping official target,” Manila Times , January 13, 2023.

The state of the Philippines’ economy in seven major sectors

This article analyzes seven key sectors that offer a detailed insight into the state of the Philippines’ economy in 2023 and beyond. As the data shows, the outlook is complex—there are serious issues to address, but also reasons for optimism.

Real estate and construction

Several global and macroeconomic shocks will likely impact the Philippines’ post-pandemic economic recovery in the real estate and construction sectors. Policy rates may reach 6.25 percent in the first half of 2023, which would negatively impact home lending rates and increase the strain on a sector that must also address the increased costs of construction and logistics caused by supply-chain issues.

Nonetheless, more optimistic projections include an expansion in real estate investment opportunities and the emergence of green real estate, a promising step toward the Philippines’ goal to reduce carbon emissions by 75 percent by 2030. 1 “Philippines raises carbon emissions target to 75 percent by 2030,” Reuters, April 16, 2021.

Much of the sector is expected to recover to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2023, and construction by the end of 2024. Much of this growth will likely be driven by residential building construction, predicted to grow by 12 percent. Non-residential construction, by contrast, has yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels.

There will likely be an increased demand for office space, caused by companies introducing return-to-office policies, as well as a resurgence in the need for industrial, retail, and leisure spaces, both of which would boost sector-wide growth.

Another consideration is hybrid working—this is in fact higher in the Philippines than the global norm. 1 Vaughn Alviar, “Hybrid work is the future,” Philippines Daily Inquirer , March 11, 2022. Office spaces may need to be reinvented as companies look to adopt more hybrid ways of working. This could result in vacancy rates persisting, however the growth of coworking facilities and the desire for sustainable buildings will necessitate innovations in construction techniques and leasing agreements, thus encouraging sector-wide growth.

Travel and hospitality

The outlook for the travel and hospitality sector is strong, with a full recovery to pre-pandemic levels expected by 2024. Outbound and inbound travel may be sluggish due to remaining international travel restrictions and further health and safety concerns: 71 percent of Asian countries still impose travel restrictions to varying degrees; Europe is more lenient with 50 percent of countries imposing no restrictions at all.

Despite this, hotel occupancy is expected to rise as more foreign tourists visit the Philippines. China’s removal of quarantine on arrival from January 8, 2023, and Hong Kong’s withdrawal of mandatory quarantine on arrival in September 2022, are both reasons for optimism. If mainland China’s air travel were to recover at the same pace as Hong Kong’s, four million air passengers a month out of China can be expected by the second quarter of 2023, pushing air travel back up to 40 percent of pre-COVID-19 levels.

Several key trends are expected to influence economic recovery in the sector, the impacts of which may be both positive and negative. High inflation, for example, has increased airlines’ operating expenses. The weakening peso, by contrast, could have a positive effect by encouraging locals to travel and spend within the country rather than abroad. In fact, local air travel is already on the rise and is expected to reach preCOVID-19 levels in the second half of 2023. 1 Katlene O. Cacho, “Air travel approaches pre-pandemic levels,” SunStar, December 20, 2022

The growth of “revenge travel” (travelling widely and often to make up for time and opportunities lost during the COVID-19 pandemic and attendant travel restrictions) also contributes to the robust growth of leisure travel, while business travel is recovering more slowly. This is largely due to the inconsistent travel restrictions between countries, and remote working tools that do away with the necessity of meeting in person.

Sustainable tourism and increased awareness of eco-friendly travel options may not negatively affect the number of tourists visiting the Philippines, but they will likely change how visitors and locals arrive in, and travel through, the country. The fact that the hospitality industry has recovered more significantly than airlines shows this. Other contributing factors include the increase in domestic travel and the popularity of the “digital-nomad” lifestyle, which allows travelers to live and work for extended periods in their destinations of choice, rather than flying between destinations frequently.

Financial services

The strength of the Philippines’ financial services sector in 2023 will likely be subject to two key factors: interest rate hikes and rising inflation. Interest rate hikes could have a positive effect by widening the net-interest margin, but macrovolatility could cause a slowdown in new loans. Rising inflation will likely increase the pressure on wages and increase operational costs.

The financial sector is already responding to these challenges. It is prioritizing the interoperability and digitization in top banks, and the country’s central bank, Bangko Sentral ng Philipinas, is expected to increase interest rate hikes to keep up with inflation. 1 Lawrence Agcaoili, “More BSP rate hikes boom as inflation spikes,” Philstar Global, January 6, 2023.

Banks have taken additional steps. These include recovering nonperforming loans, reducing loan loss provisions with an outlook on improved credit status, and the emergence of digital neobanks, which offer higher savings interest rates and faster customer acquisition. Perhaps most crucially, there are growing efforts to make banking more accessible and inclusive. The growth of digital banking is significant: in 2021, 60 percent of Filipinos used digital banking (a sharp increase from 17 percent in 2019), and growth is expected to accelerate in 2023. 2 “2021 financial inclusion survey,” Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, 2021.

Growth in the Philippines’ energy sector contracted to 4.8 percent in 2022 and is expected to rebound to 5.5 percent in 2023. However, the sector needs to ensure that this growth target can be met given looming supply constraints and while accelerating the transition to green energy.

Due to a growing population, an economy coupled with the depletion of domestic gas from the Malampaya gas field, and a heavy reliance on imported fuel, a power supply shortage is expected closer to 2024 to 2025. 1 “Malampaya depletion expected by 1st quarter of 2027,” BusinessWorld, May 19, 2021. This will put sustained upward pressure on prices and an urgency to bring greenfield capacity online.

On the energy transition, major players are addressing the challenge by diversifying energy assets across the board, with investments in cleaner technologies such as solar, hydro, and battery energy storage systems. These efforts are underway in both the private and public sectors. For example, the Philippine government has introduced measures to improve the availability and sustainability of energy. Legislation has been passed to reduce fuel and power costs via subsidies for transport operators, boost investments in indigenous energy resources such as coal, and strengthen electric cooperatives for broader access to electrification. 2 Philippine energy plan 2020–2040, Department of Energy, Republic of the Philippines.

The Philippines may generate enough energy to cover its consumption needs, but the supply-demand balance will remain tight, with clear downside risks. Threats to the energy supply include rising oil and gas prices, supply-chain disruptions, and currency depreciation.

The healthcare sector experienced strong growth during the COVID-19 pandemic: in 2021, healthcare services increased by 14.1 percent and pharmaceutical manufacturing by 12.9 percent. Growth stalled in 2022 (3.9 percent and 8.25 percent for healthcare services and pharmaceuticals respectively), and this trend is expected to continue in 2023. While demand will continue to grow, the sector will have to address three major challenges.

First, rising inflation will impact costs for service providers and manufacturers, though prices will initially lag due to procurement contracts being set in advance. One of the biggest drivers of inflation is an increase in healthcare wages, especially of hospital staff such as nurses, who are in short supply locally and globally. Second, supply-chain disruptions will drive up medicine price variations and production inefficiencies, particularly as the Philippines is a net importer of pharmaceuticals. And third, turnover levels for health workers are expected to remain high, straining the capacity of service providers and potentially resulting in a poor quality of healthcare.

To address these challenges, the sector is renewing the emphasis on universal healthcare and building robust healthcare ecosystems. The Department of Health aims to close the supply-demand gap in healthcare by increasing facilities in areas outside Metro Manila and making medicines more affordable. 1 “Universal health care,” Department of Health, Republic of the Philippines.

In the private sector, key players are investing strategically to cover the healthcare value chain, and making concerted efforts to tap into growing online markets through electronic medical records, all-in-one telemedicine and consultation apps, and other ancillary services.

The Philippines’ healthcare sector is so vast that broad, sector-wide forecasts can sometimes obscure as much as they reveal. The outlook becomes clearer when subsectors are evaluated on their own terms, as they diverge widely in market size, are subject to different trends, and experience different rates of growth. The healthcare providers subsector, for example, boasts a larger market size than the products and payors subsectors combined.

Despite significant growth in 2022, the Philippines still has some catching up to do. There is no doubt that it faces global macroeconomic headwinds in 2023, however big pockets of opportunity exist within each of its biggest sectors. To grasp these as soon as possible, companies need to rethink how they deliver to customers and operate their businesses. With such strategies in place for possible future disruptions, the Philippines can stand strong and continue to grow its economy in the year ahead.

Jon Canto is a partner in the Manila office, where Kristine Romano is a partner and Danice Parel and Vicah Villanueva are consultants.

The authors wish to thank Aaron Ong, Ryan Delos Reyes, and Jeongmin Seong for their contributions to this article.

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Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.

The Philippines has recorded its strongest economic growth in more than 40 years, defying a global slowdown and rising inflation after lifting all pandemic restrictions at the end of last year.

The south-east Asian economy grew at an annual rate of 7.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022, beating economist expectations of about 6.5 per cent growth, according to Philippine Statistics Authority data. Full-year gross domestic product increased by 7.6 per cent, its strongest growth since 1976.

The Philippines , which relies largely on remittances from overseas workers and business outsourcing activities such as call centres, alongside farming and fishing, suffered one of Asia’s sharpest contractions during the pandemic because of strict lockdowns.

The government on Thursday attributed much of the growth to the country’s reopening in the final three months of the year, with the services industry, consumer and government spending, exports and imports all posting strong rises.

Economic planning secretary Arsenio Balisacan forecasted a further boost to the economy this year from the end of zero-Covid in China , saying it would “surely be a boon”.

The upbeat outlook of the Philippines and many of its regional emerging market neighbours including Indonesia and Malaysia contrasts sharply with that of developed nations.

Philippine president Ferdinand Marcos Jr, who attended the World Economic Forum in Davos last week, predicted the economy would keep growing at near 7 per cent this year.

US and European central bankers speaking at the conference instead vowed to “stay the course” on interest rate increases to cool down their economies and tame high inflation.

John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said he expected growth to slow to a “modest” pace of roughly 1 per cent in 2023, while Christine Lagarde, head of the European Central Bank, projected growth of 0.5 per cent.

However, analysts cautioned the Philippines economy could be hit by inflation even as they revised up growth forecasts. “High inflation — the headline rate reached 8.1 per cent year on year in December — will drag on the purchasing power of consumers,” research company Capital Economics said in a note.

“Government spending is also likely to remain subdued. Despite the government’s ambitious infrastructure drive, total spending this year is set to increase by just 4.9 per cent in nominal terms,” said Gareth Leather, senior Asia economist at Capital Economics.

Even so, south-east Asia’s emerging market economies have been buoyed by the fading prospect of more aggressive interest rate rises by the US Federal Reserve, thanks to signs that consumer spending is starting to ebb, the labour market is cooling and price pressures have eased. Regional currencies have come under less pressure as net foreign outflows of bonds eased at the end of 2022, allowing governments to focus on supporting their economies.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which includes Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, was among the fastest growing regions in the world last year. Economists expect the region’s economic growth to moderate this year but remain above 4 per cent — higher than the IMF’s latest global average forecast of 2.7 per cent.

Last week, central bankers in Indonesia and Malaysia also signalled they would focus on growth and indicated they expected inflation to moderate.

Bank Negara Malaysia unexpectedly held its interest rate, while Bank Indonesia raised its benchmark rate by only 25 basis points and suggested it could be nearing the end of its rate-rise cycle.

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Economic Development Of The Philippines

Filed Under: Essays Tagged With: economic development , interest rate

Economic Development of the Philippines The Philippines consists of 7,107 islands and has a population of 65.8 million people. It is a growing Asian state, which surpasses many of its neighbors in economic as well as social development. Today the positions of the government are getting stronger. The future of the Philippines seems to be hopeful. However, tracing the development of this country from the early times to our days, we can find that their people have experienced lots of hardships. A steady government and labor system has costed The Philippines a hard struggle. They have been fighting for it since WWII.

The economy of the Philippines was practically destroyed then. Poverty and conflict strained the economic and industrial growth of the country. Several presidents have made improvements, but the Philippines is still struggling with poverty and political instability. In 1521, Ferdinand Magellan sailed to the Philippines and began colonizations. Since then the Philippines has been the colony of Spain and the USA. In 1902, the United States offered education and economic opportunities to the Filipinos. In 1934 Manuel Querzon the first president was promised independence by 1946. The Philippines was granted independence with Manuel Roxas as their leader.

However, poverty and conflict was widespread. Ferdinand Marcos was elected president in 1965. Throughout his term he created many economic and social problems. Marcos had made progress in agriculture, industry, and education. However, increasing student demonstrations and violent urban-guerrilla activities troubled his administration. In 1972 he declared martial law in the Philippines, dismissed the congress, and made himself and his wife the only rulers in the Philippines.

The Essay on Economic Growth And Development Paper – NLEX

Significance of Toll Road Industry and the North Luzon Expressway (NLEX) Concession in the Philippine Economy Viewed from the perspective of the total road network of the Philippines having 202,000 km., the current length of all tolled expressways (about 320 km.) in the country represent a mere 0.16%. At the same time, all are operating and located in the Mega Manila area traversing the National ...

Marcos’ later years in power were characterized by government corruption, economic stagnation, and widening of economic inequalities between the rich and the poor. The economy of the Philippines – a mixture of agriculture, light industry, and supporting services – is based on free enterprise. All individuals and nongovernmental entities are free to participate in its development and management. However, sometimes they have to resort to the aid of government credit. The private sector of the economy has been assisted by the government intensively through exempting certain new industries from taxation for a certain period. Government banks (the Central Bank of the Philippines, the Philippine National Bank, and the Development Bank) were established to encourage business, agriculture, and industry. The government provided much of the original capital investment of many private rural banks. The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) and the Board of Investments were created to help both public and private sectors in planning economic development.

Their aim has been also to increase economic independence. While there have been advantages in the trade relations between the United States and the Philippines, this trade has resulted in the development of industries that would primarily benefit the American rather than the Filipino economy. Despite the fact that the United States and Japan have continued to be the Philippines’ top trading partners, a number of new markets have been explored. Being engaged in business in its own right, the government owns such enterprises as the National Development Corporation, the Philippine Ports Authority, and the Philippine National Railways. Finally, it would be very important and even interesting to tell about the famous Asian financial crisis. Its beginning traces back to 2 July 1997.

That was the day when the Thai Government announced a managed float of the Baht. They were forced to call on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for technical assistance. That day the Baht fell around 20 per cent against the American dollar. This event became the impulse for the Asian currency crisis which triggered a rapid slow down in economic growth.. Within the year interest rates have been uncontrollably fluctuating up and down. With the sudden flight of speculative capital in July 1997 in the amount of $2 billion, the Philippine peso was devalued.

The Essay on Pacific Asias Economic Development

... Economic Development, All the Pacific Asian countries have a long history of economic ... were unable to raise capital to regain their crumbling economies ... Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. ... banks to pay back money they owed in foreign denominations.Loan defaults and financial sectors bankruptcy resulted from the drop. Asian government ...

As a response to this, the government allowed banks to increase interest rates to control money supply and strengthen the peso. Also the Philippines faced a liquidity problem. In order to solve it, the administration increased interest rates on treasury bills to 20% so as to attract the capital. Although the Philippines has had significant troubles during its history, it has begun to pull together a strong government and economy. A strengthened labor system and industry is successfully beginning to decrease the poverty level. President Joseph Estrada is the ruler today.

He has definitely strong economic fundamentals and has made the interest rates fall to 9%. This figure is noticeably smaller than it has been under any other administrator in history. The economy and government of the islands are growing stronger with Estrada in office and the future of the Philipines gives hope to its people as well as the whole world community.

Bibliography:

Lee, Charles. The Next Domino? Far Eastern Economic Review. 20 November 1997, pp. 14-16.

Earl, Greg. IMF Solution Follows Wrong Track: Economists. Australian Financial Review, 19 November 1997, p. 13. Balisacan, Aresnio M. and Hal Hill. The Philippine Economy: Development, policies and challenges. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

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