effects of global warming in the past 10 years essay

Essay on Effects of Global Warming for Students and Children

500+ words essay on effects of global warming.

Global warming refers to climate change that causes an increase in the average of Earth’s temperature. Natural events and human influences are believed to be top contributions towards the increase in average temperatures. Global warming is a rise in the surface and atmospheric temperature of the earth that has changed various life forms on the earth. The issues that ascertain global warming are divided into two broad categories – “natural” and “human influences” of global warming.

Natural Causes of Global Warming

The climate has been continuously changing for centuries. One natural cause of global warming is greenhouse gases. Greenhouse gases are carbon monoxide and sulphur dioxide . It traps the solar rays and prevents them from escaping the surface of the earth.

This causes an increase in the temperature of the earth. Volcanic eruptions are another reason for global warming. A single volcanic eruption can release a great amount of carbon dioxide and ash to the atmosphere. Increased carbon dioxide leads to a rise in the temperature of the earth.

Also, methane gas is another contributor to global warming. Methane is also a greenhouse gas. Methane is twenty times more effective in trapping heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide. Usually, methane gas is released from many areas like animal waste, landfill, natural gas, and others.

Get the huge list of more than 500 Essay Topics and Ideas

Human Influences on Global Warming

Human influence has been a very serious issue now as it is contributing more than natural causes of global warming. Since human evolution, the earth has been changing for many years until now and it is still changing because of our modern lifestyle. Human activities include industrial production, burning fossil fuel, mining of minerals, cattle rearing and deforestation.

Industries, transportation such as cars, buses, trucks burn fuel to power machines, which eventually releases carbon dioxide and monoxide from the exhaust, leading to an increase in a temperature rise of Earth’s atmosphere.

Another contributor is mining. During the process of mining, the methane gas trapped below the earth escapes. Rearing cattle also causes the release of methane from manure. Another cause is the most common but most dangerous – deforestation.

Deforestation is a human influence because human have been cutting down trees to produce paper, wood, build houses and more. Trees can absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and their absence can lead to the concentration of such gases.

The Effect of Global Warming

The impact that global warming is causing on earth is extremely serious. There are many hazardous effects that will happen in the future if global warming continues. It includes melting of polar ice caps, leading to an increase in sea level drowning coastlines and slowly submerging continents.

Recent studies by National Snow and Ice Datacenter “if the ice melted today the seas would rise about 230 feet”. Another effect is climate change leading to the extinction of various species. More hurricanes, cyclonic storms, heat waves, drought, and extreme rainfalls will occur causing disaster to humankind.

The solution to Stop Global Warming

We humans need to work together towards the prevention of global warming. To reduce global warming we can contribute by reducing the production and concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. We need to curb usage of gasoline, electricity and other activities including mining and industrialization that cause global warming.

Another way to reduce global warming is through recycling. Recycling can help reduce open burning of garbage by reusing plastic bags, bottles, papers or glass. We need to stop open burning dry leaves or burning garbage. It contributes to releasing carbon dioxide and toxins. Besides, we should reduce deforestation and start planting more trees. Trees will help improve the temperature on earth and prevent drastic climatic change.

From today’s scenario, we can derive that our earth is “sick” and we humans need to “heal” it. Global Warming has already caused many problems for human and we need to prevent disasters of the future. Our generation needs to take care of the earth with immediate effect to safeguard future generations or they will suffer the consequences of global warming.

Customize your course in 30 seconds

Which class are you in.

• Travelling Essay
• Picnic Essay
• Our Country Essay
• My Parents Essay
• Essay on Favourite Personality
• Essay on Memorable Day of My Life
• Essay on Knowledge is Power
• Essay on Gurpurab
• Essay on My Favourite Season
• Essay on Types of Sports

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Download the App

News from the Columbia Climate School

10 Climate Change Impacts That Will Affect Us All

As global greenhouse gases are projected to hit a new high for 2019, Petteri Taalas of the World Meteorological Organization recently declared, “Things are getting worse.” A 2019 poll found that only 24 percent of U.S. respondents believed climate change would have a great deal of impact on their lives; 31 percent believed it would have a fair amount of impact.

Different regions of the country will be affected in different ways, some more than others. But there are certain impacts that will probably affect every American’s way of life. Here are 10 of them.

1. Damage to your home

Floods, the most common and deadly natural disasters in the U.S., will likely be exacerbated and intensified by sea level rise and extreme weather. Heavy precipitation is projected to increase throughout the century to potentially three times the historical average. A 2018 study found that over 40 million Americans are at risk of flooding from rivers, and over 8.6 million people live in areas that already experience coastal flooding from storm surges during hurricanes. FEMA estimated that even one inch of floodwater in an average-sized home could cost homeowners almost $27,000 in damages.

In September, Adam Sobel, founding director of Columbia University’s Initiative on Extreme Weather and Climate , testified before the House Science, Space and Technology Committee. He asserted that scientists have strong evidence that global warming will increase the frequency or intensity of heavy rain events, and coastal flooding due to hurricane storm surge is also worsening because of sea level rise and increased precipitation.

In addition, he said, the frequency and intensity of droughts and wildfires are on the rise. While no state is immune to wildfires, 13 states in the West are considered susceptible to the most severe wildfire damage, with California having the most acres burned in 2018. A national analysis found that 775,654 homes are at extreme risk of wildfire in these 13 states. But even if homes do not burn to the ground, they may suffer smoke and fire damage, as well as water damage and flooding from fire fighting efforts.

How to protect yourself

• Apply sealants and coatings to prevent floodwaters from entering your house
• Install a sump pump
• Keep your gutters and drains clear
• Where flooding occurs regularly, raise your home up on stilts or piles
• Remove dry vegetation around the house
• When replacing a roof, opt for tile or metal
• Take all evacuation warnings seriously and have an emergency supply kit ready to go

2. More expensive home insurance

As insurance companies pay out huge amounts to homeowners whose houses have been damaged by climate change impacts, many are raising premiums to offset their costs. Home insurance rates increased more than 50 percent between 2005 and 2015.

In high-risk areas, premiums and deductibles may rise, coverage may be more limited, and insurance could ultimately become unaffordable or unavailable for some, especially in climate-vulnerable areas. For Connecticut homeowners, insurance rates have gone up 35 percent in the last 10 years; for homeowners with property along the coast, rates have gone up by over 50 percent. In 2016, California insurance companies would not renew over 10,000 policies for homes in high-risk areas. (Recently, however, the state issued a one-year moratorium preventing insurers from dropping customers who live in areas at risk from wildfire.) Travelers Insurance Company now requires separate deductibles in areas where hurricanes and tornadoes are more common.

Moreover, standard homeowners’ insurance does not cover flooding, so homeowners must buy private insurance or sign up for the National Flood Insurance Program  run by FEMA. Due to billions of dollars in payouts for Hurricanes Katrina, Harvey, Irma, Maria and Sandy, however, NFIP is $20.5 billion in debt. In October, FEMA announced that rates would rise 11.3 percent in April 2020, and will be further restructured in October 2021.

• When choosing a home, factor in climate risks
• Check FEMA flood maps (even though almost 60 percent are out of date)
• Understand your insurance coverage and needs
• Shop around for your insurance policy
• Raise your deductible for lower monthly payments
• Make your home more disaster-resistant

3. Outdoor work could become unbearable

With continued global warming, heat waves are expected to increase in frequency, duration and intensity. Jane Baldwin, a postdoctoral research scientist at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, found that compound heat waves—heat waves that occur in sequence, one after the other—will also increase, making recovery from heat waves more difficult.

People who work outdoors, such as construction workers, miners, firefighters and agricultural workers, will be most affected by increasing temperatures. Florida, for example, has one of the highest rates of heat-related hospitalizations in the U.S. This summer during a heat wave, the majority of heat-related visits to emergency rooms in Virginia were made by people aged 29-40, 70 percent of whom were men. Indoor workers in warehouses and steel plants can also be affected by excessive heat.

One study suggested that outdoor workers should begin their shifts earlier in the day, but if global warming continues at the current pace, by 2100, they would have to start working four to six hours before dawn. Currently, there are no federal laws that protect workers from heat stress, but in July, a bill was introduced into the House of Representatives that would require the Occupational Safety and Health Administration to establish standards to protect those working in the heat.

• Take frequent shade and water breaks
• Use a damp rag to keep cool
• Wear light-colored clothing and a hat
• Know the symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke

4. Higher electric bills and more blackouts

As temperatures rise, people will need to stay cool for health and comfort reasons. Climate Central analyzed 244 cities in the U.S. and determined that 93 percent experienced an increase in the number of days that required extra cooling to remain comfortable. As we rely more heavily on air conditioners and fans, electricity bills will get higher.

The increased demand for electricity, especially during peak periods, can also over-tax the electrical grid, triggering brownouts or blackouts. Extreme weather, such as hurricanes, heat waves or snowstorms, can cause power outages too.

Between the mid-1980s and 2012, there was a ten-fold increase in power outages, 80 percent of which were caused by weather.

As wildfires plague California, Pacific Gas & Electric has been preemptively shutting down power to avoid the possibility of sparking fires in the dry, windy conditions. Millions lost power during this year’s blackouts. Pre-emptive blackouts could become a common occurrence.

Brownouts or blackouts can also result if hydropower plants have less water to draw from in rivers and lakes, and if water becomes too warm to cool nuclear or coal power plants.

• Find greener ways to stay cool
• Install a programmable thermostat and set the temperature higher
• Run your appliances at night
• During a blackout, fill the bathtub so you have water to flush toilets; keep freezers and refrigerators closed
• If the power goes out, unplug appliances and electronics to avoid damage from electrical surges
• Don’t run generators inside the garage or near open windows, to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning

5.  Rising taxes   

Municipalities are recognizing the need to make their communities more resilient in the face of climate change impacts. Although measures such as building seawalls or hardening infrastructure are hugely expensive, the National Climate Assessment determined that resiliency measures save money in the long run — for example, by reducing coastal property damage to about $800 billion from a projected $3.5 trillion. Paying for mitigation and adaptation measures, however, will likely have to be funded through higher property taxes or “resilience fees.”

Grand Rapids, Michigan had problems with flooding and aging stormwater infrastructure. In 2014, the residents rejected a 13.3 percent income tax cut in order to implement green infrastructure measures that absorb runoff and reduce flooding on streets.

In 2018, Norfolk, VA, which is surrounded by water and vulnerable to sea level rise, approved a $0.10 increase to the real estate tax rate, which will go towards citywide resiliency plans to address flooding. And in the wake of California’s recent wildfires, Marin County is proposing a $0.10 per square foot parcel tax on property owners across the county to fund wildfire prevention.

• See if you qualify for a tax rebate or credit for renewable energy   and/or energy efficiency
• Check to see if your state gives tax exemptions for seniors, veterans, or the disabled

6. More allergies and other health risks

Warmer temperatures cause the pollen season to be longer and worsen air quality, both of which can result in more allergy and asthma attacks. Ground-level ozone, a major component of smog, which increases when temperatures warm, can also cause coughing, chest tightness or pain, decrease lung function and worsen asthma and other chronic lung diseases.

In addition, after floods or storms, damp buildings may foster mold growth, which has been linked to allergies and other lung diseases.

With rising temperatures, more people will suffer heat cramps, heat exhaustion, hyperthermia (high body temperature) and heat stroke as days that are unusually hot for the season hamper the body’s ability to regulate its temperature. Prolonged exposure to heat can exacerbate cardiovascular, respiratory and kidney diseases, diabetes, and increase the chance for strokes.

Older adults, pregnant women, and children are particularly vulnerable to excess heat. A 2018 paper , written by Madeline Thomson while she was a senior researcher at the Earth Institute’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society, called attention to the fact that children and infants are more vulnerable to dehydration and heat stress, as well as to respiratory disease, allergies and fever during heat waves and to the need for adults to protect them.

As the climate changes, disease-carrying mosquitoes are extending their range, bringing diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, chikungunya and West Nile virus farther north than they’ve ever been. In the summer of 2013, the Aedes aegypti mosquito, usually found in Texas and the southeastern U.S., suddenly appeared in California as far north as San Francisco — fortunately, none of the tested mosquitoes carried dengue or yellow fever. One study projects that Aedes aegypti could reach as far north as Chicago by 2050.

Heat waves, natural disasters, and the disruption in lives they cause can also aggravate mental health. During one recent California wildfire, suicidal and traumatized people flooded emergency rooms.

• When pollen counts are high or air quality is bad, stay indoors
• During a heat wave, limit outside activity during the hottest hours
• Stay hydrated
• Use insect repellent
• Understand how climate impacts can affect your children and take precautions for them

7. Food will be more expensive and variety may suffer

In the last 20 years, food prices have risen about 2.6 percent each year, and the USDA expects that food prices will continue to rise. While there are several reasons for higher food prices, climate change is a major factor. Extreme weather affects livestock and crops, and droughts can have impacts on the stability and price of food. New York apple farmers, for example, are facing warmer winters and extreme weather, which can wipe out harvests. They are trying to save their apples with new irrigation systems and wind machines that blow warm air during cold spells, but eventually these added costs will be reflected in the price of apples.

As temperatures warm and precipitation increases, more pathogens will thrive and affect plant health; in addition, more food will spoil. And because food is a globally traded commodity today, climate events in one region can raise prices and cause shortages across the globe. For example, a drought in Brazil in 2013 and 2014 caused Arabica coffee prices to double.

Michael Puma , director of the Earth Institute’s Center for Climate Systems Research, studies global food security , especially how susceptible the global network of food trade is to natural (e.g., megadroughts, volcanic eruptions) and manmade (e.g., wars, trade restrictions) disturbances. He and his colleagues are building quantitative economic models to examine vulnerabilities in the food system under different scenarios; they will use the tool to explore how altering certain policies might reduce the vulnerabilities of the food system to disruptions.

Three-quarters of our crops rely on insects for pollination and scientists believe 41 percent of insect species are threatened with extinction. While habitat loss is the major reason, climate change also plays a large part. If we lose pollinators, that could mean losing some of the crops and varieties they pollinate.

• To save money, cook at home more often and avoid purchasing prepared foods
• Don’t waste food
• Buy in bulk
• Eat less meat

8. Water quality could suffer 

Intense storms and heavy precipitation can result in the contamination of water resources . In cities, runoff picks up pollutants from the streets, and can overflow sewage systems, allowing untreated sewage to enter drinking water supplies.

In rural areas, runoff transports animal waste, pesticides and chemical fertilizer, and can enter drinking or recreational waters. Polluted drinking water can cause diarrhea, Legionnaires’ disease, and cholera; it can also cause eye, ear and skin infections. In some low-lying coastal areas, sea level rise could enable saltwater to enter groundwater drinking water supplies. And in areas suffering from drought, contaminants become more concentrated as water supplies decrease. In addition, algal blooms thrive in warm temperatures and can contaminate drinking water. In 2014, residents of Toledo, Ohio had to drink bottled water for three days because their water supply was polluted with cyanobacteria toxins.

The Earth Institute’s Columbia Water Center studies the state of fresh water availability in the face of climate change, and the water needs of food production, energy generation and ecosystems. It aims to provide “sustainable models of water management and development” to apply on local, regional and global levels.

• Don’t use water you suspect is contaminated to wash dishes, brush teeth, wash or prepare food, make ice, wash hands or make baby formula
• Keep bottled water on hand
• Decrease your household water use, especially during droughts
• Heed government precautions when drinking water is found to be contaminated and boil your water

9. Outdoor exercise and recreational sports will become more difficult

Reduced snowfall and early snowmelt in the spring will have an impact on skiing, snowmobiling and other winter sports. Less water in lakes and rivers could also affect boating and fishing during summer.

Hotter temperatures, especially in the South and Southwest, will make summer activities like running, biking, hiking and fishing less comfortable and potentially dangerous to your health.

• Shorten your outdoor workout
• Substitute indoor activities when temperatures are excessively hot
• Plan outdoor exercise for early or late in the day
• Choose shady routes if possible
• Wear loose, light-colored clothing
• Keep salty or juicy snacks on hand
• Know the signs of heat cramps, heat exhaustion and heatstroke

10. Disruptions in travel

As temperatures rise, it may get too hot for some planes to fly. In 2015, Radley Horton, associate research professor at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, and then Ph.D. student Ethan Coffel published a study calculating how extreme heat could restrict the takeoff weight of airplanes. Hotter air is less dense, so planes get less lift under their wings and engines produce less power. Airlines may be forced to bump passengers or leave luggage behind to lighten their loads. This concern is one reason why long-distance flights from the Middle East leave at night; the practice could become standard for the U.S. as well.

Flights can be disrupted due to flooding because many airports are located on low-lying land.

Superstorm Sandy in 2012 flooded LaGuardia Airport for three days. One runway in Northern Canada had to be repaved because the permafrost on which it was built began melting.

Once in the air, you may experience more turbulence. Stronger winds create more shear (a difference in wind speed over a short distance) in the atmosphere, which results in turbulence. And distant storms can create waves in the atmosphere that cause turbulence hundreds of miles away.

Recreational travel could be upended as climate change impacts many popular destinations. Sea level rise, storm surge and erosion are affecting Waikiki Beach in Hawaii, Miami Beach in Florida, and Copacabana in Rio de Janeiro. Along Florida’s southwest and Gulf coasts, toxic algae blooms have killed fish and turtles, sending the stench and toxins into the air, and making beaches unpleasant and unhealthy.

In the U.S., Montana’s Glacier National Park is losing its glaciers; in 1910 it had more than 100, but now fewer than two dozen remain. The Everglades are experiencing salt water intrusion from sea level rise. World heritage sites, too, are being affected by global warming impacts: The Amazon rainforest is threatened by logging and fires, the Arctic is thawing, the snows of Kilamanjaro are melting, and the Great Barrier Reef’s corals are bleaching.

• Change your travel destination
• Purchase travel insurance
• Check the weather of your travel destination
• Fly during the morning to reduce chances of thunderstorms and turbulence
• On the plane, keep your seat belt buckled as much as possible

As global temperatures continue to rise, climate change will affect our wallets, our health, our safety, and our lives. Many people are already feeling these impacts. And while there are ways to adapt on a personal level, some of these changes are going to become more severe and unavoidable over time. The best way to protect ourselves for the future is to support policies and measures that cut carbon emissions and enhance climate resilience.

Related Posts

Highlights From the 2024 Lamont Open House: 75th Anniversary Edition

Tree Rings, Climate Change and the Rainy Season

Shaking From April’s New Jersey Quake Went Oddly Far, Raising Questions on Regional Hazard

Ocean pollution puts a large portion of our food and water supply at risk. 2020 needs to be the year for our oceans. I’ve started using Ekoru.org instead of Google because every search helps clean plastics from our oceans.

ugh but 2020 aint the year anymore:(

THANK YOU SO MUCH YOU HAVE HELPED ME SO MUCH!!!

All the climate charts you could ever want on one page https://lokisrevengeblog.wordpress.com/collpase-charts/ No Water No Food No Life https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/ee7ewr/no_water_no_food_no_life/

may god bless you

Please check your facts and do not rely on computer models that have proven unreliable. The public actually can look up and find out for themselves that floods and forest fires are not any where near historic levels now. And by the way, CO2 and the earths average temperatures have also been greater in the past. How many times have we been told we only have 10 years to Change our ways. At least 40 years now. “But this time it’s real?”

Let me guess – American?

Probably, unfortunately. Please don’t think all of us are as foolish as some of us.

ah, politics will be the end of the world. congrats democracy, really did us a favor this time

i think we should worry about climate change because it can affect our futures and people on the earth

I very much agree

Yes, It’s a serious concern for all of us.

John Denker, y ou are wrong. The  2020 Oregon wildfire season  was one of the most destructive on record in the state of Oregon. How twould it have ever been possible for Earth’s CO2 average to be greater in the past? Your argument is weak, and false. We haven’t changed our ways, and each year we pay the price. Things are getting worse every year.

Actually Earth did have higher CO2 concentrations in the past. Look up the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). Earth’s temperature was much higher. The CO2 and temperature increases that led to the PETM happened rapidly, on geologic timescales, but nowhere near as fast as today. And it wasn’t accompanied by the level of habitat loss and pollution we have now. Climate change isn’t necessarily always bad; in our case it is though, because many species don’t have enough time to adapt.

That’s because we are actually doing things about it ( I mean about the Co2 part )

Yes I agree, taxes are rising soo much and I have had 8 power cuts in the last year

Very true but not a reason the ignore these things.

It’s very helping to us school kids

Over the years, we have been informed and warned about the effects of global warming. Now we are in the middle of it…so, I have just one question : isn’t it already too late ?

ITS NEVER TO LATE Kuijer Johan

I’m sure its not too late- if it is that really sucks.

doesnt climate change effect the food chain if all ice caps melt

It affects the food chain anyway

Yeah, some animals that need cooler temperatures die, their predators have no prey and then they die.

Lots of great things to know and to learn if you didn’t already know

What are the impacts like social, political, economical, Cultural from climate change

This article is really nice!!!! I give it 100 stars!!!

I love the points this article makes. I, a 49-year-old retired firefighter, faced extreme heat while on the job. Wildfires and house fires were commonplace when I was working. Some of my co-workers suffered from heat related injuries and had to get immediate medical treatment. I’m glad this article brings to light what us outdoor workers have to deal with on a daily basis, and I hope more articles address the conditions of outdoor workers

One day we will run out of animals because it gets too hot to farm them outdoors. I don’t know much about this thing but I kind of understood after reading this.

World of constant modification,appreciation and communication in quest to making life and its inhabitants better

Very helpfull to school Children 🙂

I am 78 years old and when I was young there wasn’t any air conditioning – only fans to stir the hot air around. cars didn’t have a/c – windows were rolled down. I don’t see a change in temperature in my 78 years. Sat outside when summer was at it hottest (July and August) and used handheld paper fans. We adjusted our cooking hours so it wouldn’t be so hot in the house. Nighttime was miserable as it was so hot we couldn’t sleep but eventually it came. Might have to put a cold cloth on our heads to cool us just a little. A person did exactly what was required of them. I remember droughts, heavy rainstorms and tornadoes. To me nothing has changed except generations have grown up with A/C in home and cars and can’t tolerate being a little hot.

TREE POWER IS IMMENSE

• trees are good at taking co2
• you get plant based food from them so eat that food
• use bing or chatgpt to find how much

tree table coming soon for house plants

Plant Name CO2 Absorption (kg/year) Dumbcane 16.28 Arrow Plant 15.73 Anthurium 14.44 Spider Plant 13.26 Bird’s Nest Fern 11.77 Golden Pothos 11.63 Prayer Plant 11.57 use this times 2

Get the Columbia Climate School Newsletter

No matter who wins the election, NRDC is ready

Regardless of the outcome, NRDC will fight for climate action, defend wildlife and wild places, and protect our environment and health. But we can’t do it alone.

Are the Effects of Global Warming Really that Bad?

Short answer: Yes. Even a seemingly slight average temperature rise is enough to cause a dramatic transformation of our planet.

The Missouri River encroaches on homes in Sioux City, Iowa, during a 2011 flood

Stocktrek Images/Media Bakery

• Share this page block

Five and a half degrees Fahrenheit. It may not sound like much—perhaps the difference between wearing a sweater and not wearing one on an early-spring day. But for the world in which we live—which climate experts project will be at least 5.7 degrees Fahrenheit warmer by 2100 , relative to pre-industrial levels (1850–1900), should global emissions continue on their current path—this small rise will have grave consequences. These impacts are already becoming apparent for every ecosystem and living thing, including us.

Human influences are the number one cause of global warming , especially the carbon pollution we cause by burning fossil fuels and the pollution capture we prevent by destroying forests. The carbon dioxide, methane, soot, and other pollutants we release into the atmosphere act like a blanket, trapping the sun's heat and causing the planet to warm. Evidence shows that the 2010s were hotter than any other decade on record —and every decade since the 1960s has averaged hotter than the previous one. This warming is altering the earth's climate system, including its land, atmosphere, oceans, and ice, in far-reaching ways.

More frequent and severe weather

Higher temperatures are worsening many types of disasters, including storms, heat waves, floods, and droughts. A warmer climate creates an atmosphere that can collect, retain, and unleash more water, changing weather patterns in such a way that wet areas become wetter and dry areas drier.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in 2021, there were 20 weather and climate disaster events in the United States—including severe storms, floods, drought, and wildfires—that individually caused at least $1 billion in losses . “Disasters in 2021 had a staggering total price tag of $145 billion—and that’s an underestimate because it excludes health damages,” says Vijay Limaye , senior scientist at NRDC. “These climate and weather disasters endanger people across the country throughout the entire year. In fact, more than 4 in 10 Americans live in a county that was struck by climate-related disasters in 2021.”

The increasing number of droughts, intense storms, and floods we're seeing as our warming atmosphere holds—and then dumps—more moisture poses risks to public health and safety too. Prolonged dry spells mean more than just scorched lawns. Drought conditions jeopardize access to clean drinking water, fuel out-of-control wildfires, and result in dust storms, extreme heat events, and flash flooding in the States. Elsewhere around the world, lack of water is a leading cause of death and serious disease and is contributing to crop failure. At the opposite end of the spectrum, heavier rains cause streams, rivers, and lakes to overflow, which damages life and property, contaminates drinking water, creates hazardous-material spills, and promotes mold infestation and unhealthy air. A warmer, wetter world is also a boon for foodborne and waterborne illnesses and disease-carrying insects, such as mosquitoes, fleas, and ticks.

Higher death rates

Today's scientists point to climate change as the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. It's a threat that impacts all of us—especially children, the elderly, low-income communities, and minorities—and in a variety of direct and indirect ways. As temperatures spike, so does the incidence of illness, emergency room visits, and death.

"There are more hot days in places where people aren't used to it," Limaye says. "They don't have air-conditioning or can't afford it. One or two days isn't a big deal. But four days straight where temperatures don't go down, even at night, leads to severe health consequences." In the United States, hundreds of heat-related deaths occur each year due to direct impacts and the indirect effects of heat-exacerbated, life-threatening illnesses, such as heat exhaustion, heatstroke, and cardiovascular and kidney diseases. Indeed, extreme heat kills more Americans each year, on average, than hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, and lightning combined.

Dirtier air

Rising temperatures also worsen air pollution by increasing ground-level ozone smog, which is created when pollution from cars, factories, and other sources react to sunlight and heat. Ground-level ozone is the main component of smog, and the hotter things get, the more of it we have. Dirtier air is linked to higher hospital admission rates and higher death rates for asthmatics. It worsens the health of people suffering from cardiac or pulmonary disease. And warmer temperatures also significantly increase airborne pollen , which is bad news for those who suffer from hay fever and other allergies.

Higher wildlife extinction rates

As humans, we face a host of challenges, but we're certainly not the only ones catching heat. As land and sea undergo rapid changes, the animals that inhabit them are doomed to disappear if they don't adapt quickly enough. Some will make it, and some won't. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Sixth Assessment Report , the risk of species extinction increases steeply with rises in global temperature —with invertebrates (specifically pollinators) and flowering plants being some of the most vulnerable. Moreover, a 2015 study showed that vertebrate species (animals with backbones, like fish, birds, mammals , amphibians, and reptiles) are also disappearing more than 100 times faster than the natural rate of extinction, due to human-driven climate change, pollution, and deforestation.

More acidic oceans

The earth's marine ecosystems are under pressure as a result of climate change. Oceans are becoming more acidic, due in large part to their absorption of some of our excess emissions. As this acidification accelerates, it poses a serious threat to underwater life, particularly creatures with calcium carbonate shells or skeletons, including mollusks, crabs, and corals. This can have a huge impact on shellfisheries . In total, the U.S. shellfish industry could lose more than $400 million annually by 2100 due to impacts of ocean acidification.

Higher sea levels

The polar regions are particularly vulnerable to a warming atmosphere. Average temperatures in the Arctic are rising twice as fast as they are elsewhere on earth, and the world's ice sheets are melting fast. This not only has grave consequences for the region's people, wildlife, and plants; its most serious impact may be on rising sea levels. By 2100, it's estimated our oceans will be 1.6 to 6.6 feet higher, threatening coastal systems and low-lying areas, encompassing entire island nations and the world’s largest cities, including Los Angeles, Miami, and New York City, as well as Mumbai, India; Rio de Janeiro; and Sydney, Australia.

But this isn’t the end of the story

There’s no question: Unchecked climate change promises a frightening future, and it's too late to fully turn back the clock. We've already taken care of that by pumping a century's worth of pollution into the atmosphere. “Even if we stopped all carbon dioxide emissions tomorrow, we'd still see some dangerous effects,” Limaye says. That, of course, is the bad news.

But there's also good news. By aggressively reducing our global emissions now, “we can avoid a lot of the severe consequences that climate change would otherwise bring,” says Limaye. While change must happen at the highest levels of government and business, your voice matters too: to your friends, to your families, and to your community leaders. Together, we can envision a safer, healthier, more equitable future—and build toward it. You can join with millions of people around the world fighting climate change and even work to reduce fossil fuels in your own life .

This story was originally published on March 15, 2016, and has been updated with new information and links.

This NRDC.org story is available for online republication by news media outlets or nonprofits under these conditions: The writer(s) must be credited with a byline; you must note prominently that the story was originally published by NRDC.org and link to the original; the story cannot be edited (beyond simple things such as grammar); you can’t resell the story in any form or grant republishing rights to other outlets; you can’t republish our material wholesale or automatically—you need to select stories individually; you can’t republish the photos or graphics on our site without specific permission; you should drop us a note to let us know when you’ve used one of our stories.

Related Stories

1.5 Degrees of Global Warming—Are We There Yet?

What Are the Solutions to Climate Change?

What Are the Effects of Climate Change?

When you sign up, you’ll become a member of NRDC’s Activist Network. We will keep you informed with the latest alerts and progress reports.

The Effects of Climate Change

The effects of human-caused global warming are happening now, are irreversible for people alive today, and will worsen as long as humans add greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.

• We already see effects scientists predicted, such as the loss of sea ice, melting glaciers and ice sheets, sea level rise, and more intense heat waves.
• Scientists predict global temperature increases from human-made greenhouse gases will continue. Severe weather damage will also increase and intensify.

Earth Will Continue to Warm and the Effects Will Be Profound

Global climate change is not a future problem. Changes to Earth’s climate driven by increased human emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases are already having widespread effects on the environment: glaciers and ice sheets are shrinking, river and lake ice is breaking up earlier, plant and animal geographic ranges are shifting, and plants and trees are blooming sooner.

Effects that scientists had long predicted would result from global climate change are now occurring, such as sea ice loss, accelerated sea level rise, and longer, more intense heat waves.

The magnitude and rate of climate change and associated risks depend strongly on near-term mitigation and adaptation actions, and projected adverse impacts and related losses and damages escalate with every increment of global warming.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Some changes (such as droughts, wildfires, and extreme rainfall) are happening faster than scientists previously assessed. In fact, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) — the United Nations body established to assess the science related to climate change — modern humans have never before seen the observed changes in our global climate, and some of these changes are irreversible over the next hundreds to thousands of years.

Scientists have high confidence that global temperatures will continue to rise for many decades, mainly due to greenhouse gases produced by human activities.

The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment report, published in 2021, found that human emissions of heat-trapping gases have already warmed the climate by nearly 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.1 degrees Celsius) since 1850-1900. 1 The global average temperature is expected to reach or exceed 1.5 degrees C (about 3 degrees F) within the next few decades. These changes will affect all regions of Earth.

The severity of effects caused by climate change will depend on the path of future human activities. More greenhouse gas emissions will lead to more climate extremes and widespread damaging effects across our planet. However, those future effects depend on the total amount of carbon dioxide we emit. So, if we can reduce emissions, we may avoid some of the worst effects.

The scientific evidence is unequivocal: climate change is a threat to human wellbeing and the health of the planet. Any further delay in concerted global action will miss the brief, rapidly closing window to secure a liveable future.

Here are some of the expected effects of global climate change on the United States, according to the Third and Fourth National Climate Assessment Reports:

Future effects of global climate change in the United States:

U.S. Sea Level Likely to Rise 1 to 6.6 Feet by 2100

Global sea level has risen about 8 inches (0.2 meters) since reliable record-keeping began in 1880. By 2100, scientists project that it will rise at least another foot (0.3 meters), but possibly as high as 6.6 feet (2 meters) in a high-emissions scenario. Sea level is rising because of added water from melting land ice and the expansion of seawater as it warms. Image credit: Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0

Climate Changes Will Continue Through This Century and Beyond

Global climate is projected to continue warming over this century and beyond. Image credit: Khagani Hasanov, Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0

Hurricanes Will Become Stronger and More Intense

Scientists project that hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates will increase as the climate continues to warm. Image credit: NASA

More Droughts and Heat Waves

Droughts in the Southwest and heat waves (periods of abnormally hot weather lasting days to weeks) are projected to become more intense, and cold waves less intense and less frequent. Image credit: NOAA

Longer Wildfire Season

Warming temperatures have extended and intensified wildfire season in the West, where long-term drought in the region has heightened the risk of fires. Scientists estimate that human-caused climate change has already doubled the area of forest burned in recent decades. By around 2050, the amount of land consumed by wildfires in Western states is projected to further increase by two to six times. Even in traditionally rainy regions like the Southeast, wildfires are projected to increase by about 30%.

Changes in Precipitation Patterns

Climate change is having an uneven effect on precipitation (rain and snow) in the United States, with some locations experiencing increased precipitation and flooding, while others suffer from drought. On average, more winter and spring precipitation is projected for the northern United States, and less for the Southwest, over this century. Image credit: Marvin Nauman/FEMA

Frost-Free Season (and Growing Season) will Lengthen

The length of the frost-free season, and the corresponding growing season, has been increasing since the 1980s, with the largest increases occurring in the western United States. Across the United States, the growing season is projected to continue to lengthen, which will affect ecosystems and agriculture.

Global Temperatures Will Continue to Rise

Summer of 2023 was Earth's hottest summer on record, 0.41 degrees Fahrenheit (F) (0.23 degrees Celsius (C)) warmer than any other summer in NASA’s record and 2.1 degrees F (1.2 C) warmer than the average summer between 1951 and 1980. Image credit: NASA

Arctic Is Very Likely to Become Ice-Free

Sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean is expected to continue decreasing, and the Arctic Ocean will very likely become essentially ice-free in late summer if current projections hold. This change is expected to occur before mid-century.

U.S. Regional Effects

Climate change is bringing different types of challenges to each region of the country. Some of the current and future impacts are summarized below. These findings are from the Third 3 and Fourth 4 National Climate Assessment Reports, released by the U.S. Global Change Research Program .

• Northeast. Heat waves, heavy downpours, and sea level rise pose increasing challenges to many aspects of life in the Northeast. Infrastructure, agriculture, fisheries, and ecosystems will be increasingly compromised. Farmers can explore new crop options, but these adaptations are not cost- or risk-free. Moreover, adaptive capacity , which varies throughout the region, could be overwhelmed by a changing climate. Many states and cities are beginning to incorporate climate change into their planning.
• Northwest. Changes in the timing of peak flows in rivers and streams are reducing water supplies and worsening competing demands for water. Sea level rise, erosion, flooding, risks to infrastructure, and increasing ocean acidity pose major threats. Increasing wildfire incidence and severity, heat waves, insect outbreaks, and tree diseases are causing widespread forest die-off.
• Southeast. Sea level rise poses widespread and continuing threats to the region’s economy and environment. Extreme heat will affect health, energy, agriculture, and more. Decreased water availability will have economic and environmental impacts.
• Midwest. Extreme heat, heavy downpours, and flooding will affect infrastructure, health, agriculture, forestry, transportation, air and water quality, and more. Climate change will also worsen a range of risks to the Great Lakes.
• Southwest. Climate change has caused increased heat, drought, and insect outbreaks. In turn, these changes have made wildfires more numerous and severe. The warming climate has also caused a decline in water supplies, reduced agricultural yields, and triggered heat-related health impacts in cities. In coastal areas, flooding and erosion are additional concerns.

1. IPCC 2021, Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis , the Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

2. IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

3. USGCRP 2014, Third Climate Assessment .

4. USGCRP 2017, Fourth Climate Assessment .

Related Resources

A Degree of Difference

So, the Earth's average temperature has increased about 2 degrees Fahrenheit during the 20th century. What's the big deal?

What’s the difference between climate change and global warming?

“Global warming” refers to the long-term warming of the planet. “Climate change” encompasses global warming, but refers to the broader range of changes that are happening to our planet, including rising sea levels; shrinking mountain glaciers; accelerating ice melt in Greenland, Antarctica and the Arctic; and shifts in flower/plant blooming times.

Is it too late to prevent climate change?

Humans have caused major climate changes to happen already, and we have set in motion more changes still. However, if we stopped emitting greenhouse gases today, the rise in global temperatures would begin to flatten within a few years. Temperatures would then plateau but remain well-elevated for many, many centuries.

Discover More Topics From NASA

Explore Earth Science

Earth Science in Action

Earth Science Data

Facts About Earth

• Ways to Give
• Contact an Expert
• Explore WRI Perspectives

Filter Your Site Experience by Topic

Applying the filters below will filter all articles, data, insights and projects by the topic area you select.

• All Topics Remove filter
• Climate filter site by Climate
• Cities filter site by Cities
• Energy filter site by Energy
• Food filter site by Food
• Forests filter site by Forests
• Freshwater filter site by Freshwater
• Ocean filter site by Ocean
• Business filter site by Business
• Economics filter site by Economics
• Finance filter site by Finance
• Equity & Governance filter site by Equity & Governance

Search WRI.org

Not sure where to find something? Search all of the site's content.

10 Big Findings from the 2023 IPCC Report on Climate Change

• climate change
• Climate Resilience
• climate science
• climatewatch-pinned

March 20 marked the release of the final installment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) , an eight-year long undertaking from the world’s most authoritative scientific body on climate change. Drawing on the findings of 234 scientists on the  physical science of climate change , 270 scientists on  impacts, adaptation and vulnerability to climate change , and 278 scientists on  climate change mitigation , this  IPCC synthesis report  provides the most comprehensive, best available scientific assessment of climate change.

It also makes for grim reading. Across nearly 8,000 pages, the AR6 details the devastating consequences of rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions around the world — the destruction of homes, the loss of livelihoods and the fragmentation of communities, for example — as well as the increasingly dangerous and irreversible risks should we fail to change course.

But the IPCC also offers hope, highlighting pathways to avoid these intensifying risks. It identifies readily available, and in some cases, highly cost-effective actions that can be undertaken now to reduce GHG emissions, scale up carbon removal and build resilience. While the window to address the climate crisis is rapidly closing, the IPCC affirms that we can still secure a safe, livable future.

Here are 10 key findings you need to know:

1. Human-induced global warming of 1.1 degrees C has spurred changes to the Earth’s climate that are unprecedented in recent human history.

Already, with 1.1 degrees C (2 degrees F) of global temperature rise, changes to the climate system that are unparalleled over centuries to millennia are now occurring in every region of the world, from rising sea levels to more extreme weather events to rapidly disappearing sea ice.

Additional warming will increase the magnitude of these changes. Every 0.5 degree C (0.9 degrees F) of global temperature rise, for example, will cause clearly discernible increases in the frequency and severity of heat extremes, heavy rainfall events and regional droughts. Similarly, heatwaves that, on average, arose once every 10 years in a climate with little human influence will likely occur 4.1 times more frequently with 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) of warming, 5.6 times with 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) and 9.4 times with 4 degrees C (7.2 degrees F) — and the intensity of these heatwaves will also increase by 1.9 degrees C (3.4 degrees F), 2.6 degrees C (4.7 degrees F) and 5.1 degrees C (9.2 degrees F) respectively.

Rising global temperatures also heighten the probability of reaching dangerous tipping points in the climate system that, once crossed, can trigger self-amplifying feedbacks that further increase global warming, such as thawing permafrost or massive forest dieback. Setting such reinforcing feedbacks in motion can also lead to other substantial, abrupt and irreversible changes to the climate system. Should warming reach between 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) and 3 degrees C (5.4 degrees F), for example, the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets could melt almost completely and irreversibly over many thousands of years, causing sea levels to rise by several meters.

2. Climate impacts on people and ecosystems are more widespread and severe than expected, and future risks will escalate rapidly with every fraction of a degree of warming.

Described as an “an atlas of human suffering and a damning indictment of failed climate leadership” by United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, one of AR6’s most alarming conclusions is that adverse climate impacts are already more far-reaching and extreme than anticipated. About half of the global population currently contends with severe water scarcity for at least one month per year, while higher temperatures are enabling the spread of vector-borne diseases, such as malaria, West Nile virus and Lyme disease. Climate change has also slowed improvements in agricultural productivity in middle and low latitudes, with crop productivity growth shrinking by a third in Africa since 1961. And since 2008, extreme floods and storms have forced over 20 million people from their homes every year.

Every fraction of a degree of warming will intensify these threats, and even limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degree C is not safe for all. At this level of warming, for example, 950 million people across the world’s drylands will experience water stress, heat stress and desertification, while the share of the global population exposed to flooding will rise by 24%.

Similarly, overshooting 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F), even temporarily, will lead to much more severe, oftentimes irreversible impacts, from local species extinctions to the complete drowning of salt marshes to loss of human lives from increased heat stress. Limiting the magnitude and duration of overshooting 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F), then, will prove critical in ensuring a safe, livable future, as will holding warming to as close to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) or below as possible. Even if this temperature limit is exceeded by the end of the century, the imperative to rapidly curb GHG emissions to avoid higher levels of warming and associated impacts remains unchanged.

3. Adaptation measures can effectively build resilience, but more finance is needed to scale solutions.

Climate policies in at least 170 countries now consider adaptation, but in many nations, these efforts have yet to progress from planning to implementation. Measures to build resilience are still largely small-scale, reactive and incremental, with most focusing on immediate impacts or near-term risks. This disparity between today’s levels of adaptation and those required persists in large part due to limited finance. According to the IPCC, developing countries alone will need $127 billion per year by 2030 and $295 billion per year by 2050 to adapt to climate change. But funds for adaptation reached just $23 billion to $46 billion from 2017 to 2018, accounting for only 4% to 8% of tracked climate finance.

The good news is that the IPCC finds that, with sufficient support, proven and readily available adaptation solutions can build resilience to climate risks and, in many cases, simultaneously deliver broader sustainable development benefits.

Ecosystem-based adaptation, for example, can help communities adapt to impacts that are already devastating their lives and livelihoods, while also safeguarding biodiversity, improving health outcomes, bolstering food security, delivering economic benefits and enhancing carbon sequestration. Many ecosystem-based adaptation measures — including the protection, restoration and sustainable management of ecosystems, as well as more sustainable agricultural practices like integrating trees into farmlands and increasing crop diversity — can be implemented at relatively low costs today. Meaningful collaboration with Indigenous Peoples and local communities is critical to the success of this approach, as is ensuring that ecosystem-based adaptation strategies are designed to account for how future global temperature rise will impact ecosystems.

4. Some climate impacts are already so severe they cannot be adapted to, leading to losses and damages.

Around the world, highly vulnerable people and ecosystems are already struggling to adapt to climate change impacts. For some, these limits are “soft” — effective adaptation measures exist, but economic, political and social obstacles constrain implementation, such as lack of technical support or inadequate funding that does not reach the communities where it’s needed most. But in other regions, people and ecosystems already face or are fast approaching “hard” limits to adaptation, where climate impacts from 1.1 degrees C (2 degrees F) of global warming are becoming so frequent and severe that no existing adaptation strategies can fully avoid losses and damages. Coastal communities in the tropics, for example, have seen entire coral reef systems that once supported their livelihoods and food security experience widespread mortality, while rising sea levels have forced other low-lying neighborhoods to move to higher ground and abandon cultural sites. 

Whether grappling with soft or hard limits to adaptation, the result for vulnerable communities is oftentimes irreversible and devastating. Such losses and damages will only escalate as the world warms. Beyond 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) of global temperature rise, for example, regions reliant on snow and glacial melt will likely experience water shortages to which they cannot adapt. At 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F), the risk of concurrent maize production failures across important growing regions will rise dramatically. And above 3 degrees C (5.4 degrees F), dangerously high summertime heat will threaten the health of communities in parts of southern Europe.

Urgent action is needed to avert, minimize and address these losses and damages. At COP27, countries took a critical step forward by agreeing to establish funding arrangements for loss and damage, including a dedicated fund. While this represents  a historic breakthrough  in the climate negotiations, countries must now figure out the details of what these funding arrangements, as well as the new fund , will look like in practice — and it’s these details that will ultimately determine the adequacy, accessibility, additionality and predictability of these financial flows to those experiencing loss and damage.

5. Global GHG emissions peak before 2025 in 1.5 degrees C-aligned pathways.

The IPCC finds that there is a more than 50% chance that global temperature rise will reach or surpass 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) between 2021 and 2040 across studied scenarios, and under a high-emissions pathway, specifically, the world may hit this threshold even sooner — between 2018 and 2037. Global temperature rise in such a carbon-intensive scenario could also increase to 3.3 degrees C to 5.7 degrees C (5.9 degrees F to 10.3 degrees F) by 2100. To put this projected amount of warming into perspective, the last time global temperatures exceeded 2.5 degrees C (4.5 degrees F) above pre-industrial levels was more than 3 million years ago.

Changing course to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) — with no or limited overshoot — will instead require deep GHG emissions reductions in the near-term. In modelled pathways that limit global warming to this goal, GHG emissions peak immediately and before 2025 at the latest. They then drop rapidly, declining 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035, relative to 2019 levels.

While there are some bright spots — the annual growth rate of GHG emissions slowed from an average of 2.1% per year between 2000 and 2009 to 1.3% per year between 2010 and 2019, for example — global progress in mitigating climate change remains woefully off track. GHG emissions have climbed steadily over the past decade, reaching 59 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) in 2019 — approximately 12% higher than in 2010 and 54% greater than in 1990.

Even if countries achieved their climate pledges (also known as nationally determined contributions or NDCs),  WRI research  finds that they would reduce GHG emissions by just 7% from 2019 levels by 2030, in contrast to the 43% associated with limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F). And while handful of countries have submitted  new or enhanced NDCs  since the IPCC’s cut-off date,  more recent analysis  that takes these submissions into account finds that these commitments collectively still fall short of closing this emissions gap.

6. The world must rapidly shift away from burning fossil fuels — the number one cause of the climate crisis.

In pathways limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) with no or limited overshoot just a net 510 GtCO2 can be emitted before carbon dioxide emissions reach net zero in the early 2050s. Yet future carbon dioxide emissions from existing and planned fossil fuel infrastructure alone could surpass that limit by 340 GtCO2, reaching 850 GtCO2.

A mix of strategies can help avoid  locking in  these emissions, including retiring existing fossil fuel infrastructure, canceling new projects, retrofitting fossil-fueled power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies and scaling up renewable energy sources like solar and wind (which are now cheaper than fossil fuels in many regions).

In pathways that limit warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) — with no or limited overshoot — for example, global use of coal falls by 95% by 2050, oil declines by about 60% and gas by about 45%. These figures assume significant use of abatement technologies like CCS, and without them, these same pathways show much steeper declines by mid-century. Global use of coal without CCS, for example, is virtually phased out by 2050.

Although coal-fired power plants are starting to be retired across Europe and the United States, some multilateral development banks continue to invest in new coal capacity. Failure to change course risks stranding assets worth trillions of dollars.

7. We also need urgent, systemwide transformations to secure a net-zero, climate-resilient future.

While fossil fuels are the number one source of GHG emissions, deep emission cuts are necessary across all of society to combat the climate crisis. Power generation, buildings, industry, and transport are responsible for close to 80% of global emissions while agriculture, forestry and other land uses account for the remainder.

Take the  transport system , for instance. Drastically cutting emissions will require urban planning that minimizes the need for travel, as well as the build-out of shared, public and nonmotorized transport, such as rapid transit and bicycling in cities. Such a transformation will also entail increasing the supply of electric passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles and buses, coupled with wide-scale installation of rapid-charging infrastructure, investments in zero-carbon fuels for shipping and aviation and more.

Policy measures that make these changes less disruptive can help accelerate needed transitions, such as subsidizing zero-carbon technologies and taxing high-emissions technologies like fossil-fueled cars. Infrastructure design — like reallocating street space for sidewalks or bike lanes — can help people transition to lower-emissions lifestyles. It is important to note there are many co-benefits that accompany these transformations, too. Minimizing the number of passenger vehicles on the road, in this example, reduces harmful local air pollution and cuts traffic-related crashes and deaths.

Systems Change Lab  monitors, learns from and mobilizes action to achieve the far-reaching transformational shifts needed to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees C, halt biodiversity loss and build a just and equitable economy.

Transformative adaptation measures, too, are critical for securing a more prosperous future. The IPCC emphasizes the importance of ensuring that adaptation measures drive systemic change, cut across sectors and are distributed equitably across at-risk regions. The good news is that there are oftentimes strong synergies between transformational mitigation and adaptation. For example, in the global food system, climate-smart agriculture practices like shifting to  agroforestry  can improve resilience to climate impacts, while simultaneously advancing mitigation.  

8. Carbon removal is now essential to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C.

Deep decarbonization across all systems while building resilience won’t be enough to achieve global climate goals, though. The IPCC finds that all pathways that limit warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) — with no or limited overshoot — depend on some quantity of  carbon removal . These approaches encompass both natural solutions, such as sequestering and storing carbon in trees and soil, as well as more nascent technologies that pull carbon dioxide directly from the air.

Hover over each carbon removal approach to learn more:

Note: This figure includes carbon removal approaches mentioned in countries' long-term climate strategies as well as other leading proposed approaches. The natural/biotic vs. technological/abiotic categorization shown here is illustrative rather than definitive and will vary depending on how approaches are applied, particularly for carbon removal approaches in the ocean.

The amount of carbon removal required depends on how quickly we reduce GHG emissions across other systems and the extent to which climate targets are overshot, with estimates ranging from between 5 GtCO2 to 16 GtCO2 per year needed by mid-century.

All carbon removal approaches have merits and drawbacks. Reforestation, for instance, represents a readily available, relatively low-cost strategy that, when implemented appropriately, can deliver a wide range of benefits to communities. Yet the carbon stored within these ecosystems is also vulnerable to disturbances like wildfires, which may increase in frequency and severity with additional warming. And, while technologies like bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) may offer a more permanent solution, such approaches also risk displacing croplands, and in doing so, threatening food security. Responsibly researching, developing and deploying emerging carbon removal technologies, alongside existing natural approaches, will therefore require careful understanding of each solution’s unique benefits, costs and risks.

9. Climate finance for both mitigation and adaptation must increase dramatically this decade.

The IPCC finds that public and private finance flows for fossil fuels today far surpass those directed toward climate mitigation and adaptation. Thus, while annual public and private climate finance has risen by upwards of 60% since the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report, much more is still required to achieve global climate change goals. For instance, climate finance will need to increase between 3 and 6 times by 2030 to achieve mitigation goals, alone.

This gap is widest in developing countries, particularly those already struggling with debt, poor credit ratings and economic burdens from the COVID-19 pandemic. Recent mitigation investments, for example, need to increase by at least sixfold in Southeast Asia and developing countries in the Pacific, fivefold in Africa and fourteenfold in the Middle East by 2030 to hold warming below 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F). And across sectors, this shortfall is most pronounced for agriculture, forestry and other land use, where recent financial flows are 10 to 31 times below what is required to achieve the Paris Agreement’s goals.

Finance for adaptation, as well as loss and damage, will also need to rise dramatically. Developing countries, for example, will need $127 billion per year by 2030 and $295 billion per year by 2050. While AR6 does not assess countries’ needs for finance to avert, minimize and address losses and damages,  recent estimates  suggest that they will be substantial in the coming decades. Current funds for both fall well below estimated needs, with the highest estimates of adaptation finance totaling under $50 billion per year.

10. Climate change — as well as our collective efforts to adapt to and mitigate it — will exacerbate inequity should we fail to ensure a just transition.  

Households with incomes in the top 10%, including a relatively large share in developed countries, emit upwards of 45% of the world's GHGs, while those families earning in the bottom 50% account for 15% at most. Yet the effects of climate change already — and will continue to — hit poorer, historically marginalized communities the hardest.

Today, between 3.3 billion and 3.6 billion people live in countries that are highly vulnerable to climate impacts, with global hotspots concentrated in the Arctic, Central and South America, Small Island Developing states, South Asia and much of sub-Saharan Africa. Across many countries in these regions, conflict, existing inequalities and development challenges (e.g., poverty and limited access to basic services like clean water) not only heighten sensitivity to climate hazards, but also limit communities’ capacity to adapt.  Mortality from storms, floods and droughts, for instance, was 15 times higher in countries with high vulnerability to climate change than in those with very low vulnerability from 2010 to 2020.

At the same time, efforts to mitigate climate change also risk disruptive changes and exacerbating inequity. Retiring coal-fired power plants, for instance, may displace workers, harm local economies and reconfigure the social fabric of communities, while inappropriately implemented efforts to halt deforestation could heighten poverty and intensify food insecurity. And certain climate policies, such as  carbon taxes  that raise the cost of emissions-intensive goods like gasoline, can also prove to be regressive, absent of efforts to recycle the revenues raised from these taxes back into programs that benefit low-income communities.

Fortunately, the IPCC identifies a range of measures that can support a just transition and help ensure that no one is left behind as the world moves toward a net-zero-emissions, climate-resilient future. Reconfiguring social protection programs (e.g., cash transfers, public works programs and social safety nets) to include adaptation, for example, can reduce communities’ vulnerability to a wide range of future climate impacts, while strengthening justice and equity. Such programs are particularly effective when paired with efforts to expand access to infrastructure and basic services.

Similarly, policymakers can design mitigation strategies to better distribute the costs and benefits of reducing GHG emissions. Governments can pair efforts to phase out coal-fired electricity generation, for instance, with subsidized job retraining programs that support workers in developing the skills needed to secure new, high-quality jobs. Or, in another example, officials can couple policy interventions dedicated to expanding access to public transit with interventions to improve access to nearby, affordable housing.

Across both mitigation and adaptation measures, inclusive, transparent and participatory decision-making processes will play a central role in ensuring a just transition. More specifically, these forums can help cultivate public trust, deepen public support for transformative climate action and avoid unintended consequences.

Looking Ahead

The IPCC’s AR6 makes clear that risks of inaction on climate are immense and the way ahead requires change at a scale not seen before. However, this report also serves as a reminder that we have never had more information about the gravity of the climate emergency and its cascading impacts — or about what needs to be done to reduce intensifying risks.

Limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) is still possible, but only if we act immediately. As the IPCC makes clear, the world needs to peak GHG emissions before 2025 at the very latest, nearly halve GHG emissions by 2030 and reach net-zero CO2 emissions around mid-century, while also ensuring a just and equitable transition. We’ll also need an all-hands-on-deck approach to guarantee that communities experiencing increasingly harmful impacts of the climate crisis have the resources they need to adapt to this new world. Governments, the private sector, civil society and individuals must all step up to keep the future we desire in sight. A narrow window of opportunity is still open, but there’s not one second to waste.

Note: In addition to showcasing findings from the IPCC’s AR6 Synthesis Report, this article also draws on previous articles detailing the IPCC’s findings on  the physical science of climate change ,  impacts, adaption and vulnerability ,  and  climate change mitigation .

Relevant Work

6 takeaways from the 2022 ipcc climate change mitigation report, 6 big findings from the ipcc 2022 report on climate impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, 5 big findings from the ipcc’s 2021 climate report, 8 things you need to know about the ipcc 1.5˚c report.

Join us on March 23 for a high-level webinar featuring IPCC authors, government representatives and leading carbon removal experts to discuss how carbon removal is a critical tool in our toolbox to address the climate crisis.

How You Can Help

WRI relies on the generosity of donors like you to turn research into action. You can support our work by making a gift today or exploring other ways to give.

Stay Informed

World Resources Institute 10 G Street NE Suite 800 Washington DC 20002 +1 (202) 729-7600

© 2024 World Resources Institute

Envision a world where everyone can enjoy clean air, walkable cities, vibrant landscapes, nutritious food and affordable energy.

• The Society
• Science News
• Science News Explores
• Student Science
• Science News on Twitter
• Science News on Facebook
• Science News on Google+

Changing climate: 10 years after An Inconvenient Truth

By thomas sumner april 8, 2016.

• CHANGING CLIMATE
• Ocean Circulation
• Drought Climate and Conflict

Antarctic Ice Sheet

Sea level rise, extreme temperatures, climate action.

By Thomas Sumner

M ore than 25 years before the star-studded Los Angeles premiere of An Inconvenient Truth , glaciologist Lonnie Thompson was about as far away from the red carpet as possible. It was 1978, and high in the rugged Andes, Thompson and fellow scientists were witnessing the first glimpses of a pending worldwide disaster. Rising temperatures were melting ancient titans of ice and snow. Mammoth glaciers were disappearing at unprecedented rates and withering to the smallest sizes in millennia. The delicate balance of Earth’s climate was upset.

As research mounted, scientists around the world from fields as diverse as chemistry and astronomy were coming to grips with a newfound truth: Carbon dioxide spewed by fossil fuel burning and other greenhouse gases were warming the world at an alarming rate, potentially threatening the health and livelihoods of millions of people. Despite the gravity and urgency of their findings, the scientists’ warnings fell mostly on deaf ears for years.

Until 2006. Six years after his unsuccessful presidential campaign, Al Gore reentered the national spotlight to release An Inconvenient Truth , which heavily featured Thompson’s mountaintop research. Thompson missed the premiere of the documentary because he was gearing up to return to South America’s vanishing ice. But the film did what he and other researchers had been unable to do: “It got climate change on the radar,” Thompson says. Last December, Gore was on hand in Paris as 195 nations committed to the most ambitious pledge yet to fight back against climate change and curb carbon emissions ( SN: 1/9/16, p. 6 ).

In the 10 years since the movie sparked increased public discussion, climate scientists have made major advances. More observations, faster climate-simulating computers and an improved understanding of the planet’s inner workings now provide a clearer window on how Earth’s climate will change.

Some of the bold forecasts of the 2006 movie are holding, and others are on an accelerated track. A few of the most dire warnings need revising, says Thompson, at Ohio State University in Columbus. And plenty of questions remain. In a controversial paper in March in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics , researchers argued that the effects of climate change could be even more severe and sudden than current predictions.

While a lot has changed, the fundamental understanding of climate change, dating back to the 19th century recognition that carbon dioxide warms the planet, has held strong, he says.

“The physics and chemistry that we’ve known about for over 200 years is bearing out,” Thompson says. “We’ve learned so much in the last 10 years, but the fact that the unprecedented climate change of the last 40 years is being driven by increased CO 2 hasn’t changed.”

The far-reaching effects of climate change — from ocean acidification to disrupted ecosystems — are too numerous to examine all at once. But below are a few of the areas where climate scientists have made significant progress since 2006.

Above, video: Warming is altering Earth’s landscape, such as via accelerated ice loss on this Norwegian glacier. Alternate photo: Scientists with NASA’s ICESCAPE mission investigate the effects of climate change on Arctic ecosystems.

Video: Incredible Arctic/Shutterstock; photo: Kathryn Hansen/NASA

Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans in 2005. The storm’s destruction, compounded by failed levees, sparked concerns that climate change could have been at least partially responsible. Jocelyn Augustino/FEMA

2006: The warming ocean could fuel more frequent and more intense Atlantic hurricanes.

2016: Hurricane frequency has dropped somewhat; hurricane intensities haven’t changed much — yet.

In August 2005, Hurricane Katrina slammed into the Gulf Coast. Floodwaters covered roughly 80 percent of New Orleans, 1,836 people died, hundreds of thousands became homeless and the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record was far from over. As the last storm fizzled, damages had reached $160 billion, meteorologists had run through the alphabet of preselected storm names and many people, including Gore, were indicting global warming as a probable culprit.

“Hurricanes were the poster child of global warming,” says Christopher Landsea, a meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Hurricane Center in Miami. “In reality, it’s a lot more subtle than that.”

Tropical cyclones, such as Atlantic hurricanes, are stirred up where seawater is warmer than the overlying air. Because climate change raises ocean temperatures, it made sense that such storms could strike more often and with more ferocity. A closer look at hurricanes past and future suggests, however, that the relationship between warming and hurricanes is less clear-cut.

STEADY STORMS The record-smashing 2005 hurricane season raised concerns that storms were becoming stronger and more frequent. Yet, a closer look at the long-term trends revealed that Atlantic hurricane frequency has not significantly changed since 1878. Source: C. Landsea/NHC/NOAA

Several studies in the mid-2000s examining the history of Atlantic hurricanes pointed to an overall rise in the number of 20th century storms in step with warming sea surface temperatures. Scrutinizing those numbers, Landsea uncovered a problem: Hurricane-spotting satellites date back only to 1961’s Hurricane Esther. Before then, storm watchers probably missed many weaker, shorter-lived storms. Taking this into account, Landsea and colleagues reported in 2010 that the number of annual storms has actually decreased somewhat over the last century.

That decrease could be explained by climate factors other than rising sea surface temperatures. Changes in atmospheric heating can increase the variation in wind speed at different elevations, known as wind shear. The shearing winds rip apart burgeoning storms and decrease the number of fully formed hurricanes, researchers reported in 2007 in Geophysical Research Letters .

The overall frequency of storms, however, is less important than the number of Katrina-scale events, says Gabriel Vecchi, an oceanographer at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J. Category 4 and 5 storms, the most violent, make up only 6 percent of U.S. hurricane landfalls, but they cause nearly half of all damage. Vecchi and colleagues used the latest understanding of how hurricanes form and intensify to forecast how the storms will behave under future climate conditions.

LANDFALL Hurricane Katrina slammed into Louisiana in August 2004. The storm devastated the state and flooded much of New Orleans. Radar data from NWS New Orleans and processed by the National Climatic Data Center

The work, published in 2010 in Science , predicted that the frequency of Category 4 and 5 storms could nearly double by 2100 due to ocean warming, even if the overall number of hurricanes doesn’t rise. At present, however, climate change’s influence on hurricanes is probably too small to detect, Vecchi says, adding that Katrina’s wrath can’t be blamed on global warming.

Future hurricanes will cause more damage, Landsea predicts, whether or not there’s any change in storm intensity. Rising sea levels mean floodwaters will climb higher and reach farther inland. Hurricane Sandy, which stormed over New Jersey and New York in October 2012, had weakened by the time it reached the coast. But it drove a catastrophic storm surge into the coastline that caused about $50 billion in damages. If sea levels were higher, Sandy’s surge would have reached even farther inland and damage could have been much worse.

Many vulnerable areas such as St. Petersburg, Fla., are woefully underprepared for threats posed by storms at current sea levels, Landsea warns. Higher sea levels won’t help. “We don’t need to invoke climate change decades down the line — we’ve got a big problem now,” he says.

“Hurricanes were the poster child of global warming. In reality it’s a lot more subtle than that.” Christopher Landsea

Researchers have directly monitored Atlantic circulation, which includes the Gulf Stream, since the 2004 deployment of the RAPID array (shown). Direct measurements suggest that the circulation may be slowing down. National Oceanography Centre (UK)

Ocean circulation

2006: Freshwater flowing into the North Atlantic could shut down the ocean conveyor belt that shuttles warm water toward Western Europe.

2016: The ocean conveyor belt may already be slowing, but it’s not much of a conveyor belt at that.

Last year may have been Earth’s hottest on record ( SN: 2/20/16, p. 13 ). But for one small corner of the globe, 2015 was one of the coldest . Surface temperatures in the subpolar North Atlantic have chilled in recent years and, oddly enough, some research suggests global warming is partly responsible.

An influx of freshwater from melting glaciers and increasing rainfall can slow — and possibly even shut down — the ocean currents that ferry warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic. About 10 years ago, scientists warned of a possible abrupt shutdown of this “ocean conveyor belt.” After years of closely monitoring Earth’s flowing oceans, researchers say a sudden slowdown isn’t in the cards. Some researchers report that they may now be seeing a more gradual slowing of the ocean currents. Others, meanwhile, have discovered that Earth’s ocean conveyor belt may be less of a sea superhighway and more of a twisted network of side roads.

The consequences of a sea current slowdown won’t be anywhere near as catastrophic as the over-the-top weather disasters envisioned in the 2004 film The Day After Tomorrow , says Stephen Griffies, a physical oceanographer at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. “The doomsday scenario is overblown, but the possibility of a slowing down of the circulation is real and will have important impacts on Atlantic climates,” Griffies says.

EVERY WHICH WAY Tracking the motion of floating markers dropped into the northwest Atlantic (white-rimmed circles), researchers found that the idea of an ocean conveyor belt is overly simplistic. The markers quickly split up, ending up in many different destinations (solid circles). Amy S. Bower et al / Nature 2009

The Atlantic mixing that feeds the currents is powered by differences in the density of seawater. In the simple ocean conveyor-belt model, warm, less-dense surface water flows northward into the North Atlantic. Off Greenland, cold, denser water sinks into the deep ocean and flows southward. This heat exchange, known as the Atlantic overturning circulation, helps keep European cities warmer than their counterparts elsewhere in the world.

Ten years ago, scientists knew from past changes in Earth’s climate that temperature shifts can disrupt this density balance. Freshwater from the shrinking Greenland ice sheet and increased rainfall make the North Atlantic waters less dense and therefore less likely to sink. Investigations into Earth’s ancient climates show that the overturning circulation weakened around 12,800 years ago, probably causing cooling in Europe and sea level rise along North America’s East Coast, as piled-up water in the north sloshed southward.

Tracking sea surface temperatures, researchers reported last year that the Atlantic overturning circulation significantly slowed during the 20th century, particularly after 1970. Comparing the recent slowdown with past events, the researchers reported in March in Nature Climate Change that the rapid weakening of the circulation is unprecedented in the last 1,000 years .

That result isn’t the final word, though, says Duke University physical oceanographer Susan Lozier. Scientists have directly measured the speed of the ocean circulation only since the deployment of a network of ocean sensors in 2004. Earlier Atlantic circulation speed changes have to be gleaned from less reliable indirect sources such as sea surface temperature changes. “If you look at the most recent results, there’s a decline, yes,” she says. “But we can’t say that’s part of a long-term trend right now.” And effects on Europe’s climate could be masked by other factors.

Another challenge is that over the last 10 years, “the ocean conveyor-belt model broke,” Lozier said in February at the American Geophysical Union’s Ocean Sciences Meeting in New Orleans. From 2003 through 2005, she and colleagues tracked the movements of 76 floating markers dropped into the North Atlantic and pulled around by ocean waters. If the model was right, these markers should have traveled along the southward-flowing part of the conveyor belt. Instead, the markers moved every which way , the researchers reported in 2009 in Nature .

“We went from this simple ribbon of a conveyor belt to a complex flow field with multiple pathways,” Lozier says. Determining past and possible future effects of climate change on ocean currents will require more measurements and a better understanding of how the ocean truly flows, she says.

Even if the overturning circulation cuts out completely, the resulting cooling effect will probably be short-lived, Griffies says. “At some point, even if the circulation collapses, it would only be 10 or 20 years before the global warming signal would overwhelm that cooling” in Europe, he says. “This is not going to save us from a warmer planet.”

Drought conditions worsened by climate change helped fuel the civil unrest that led to 2011’s Syrian civil war. Global security experts worry that continuing climate change will help spark more conflicts. Christiaan Triebert/Flickr (CC BY 2.0)

Drought, Climate and Conflict

2006: Climate change exacerbated droughts that contributed to regional conflicts, such as the war in Darfur.

2016: Drought conditions worsened by climate change helped spark the Syrian civil war.

Following escalating unrest and a wave of demonstrations across the Arab world, a bloody civil war broke out in Syria in 2011. The ongoing conflict sparked an international crisis and has left hundreds of thousands of people dead and millions more displaced. While the root cause of the conflict centered on clashes between the Syrian government and its people, multiple studies argue that climate change helped stoke the flames of rebellion.

Mounting evidence from around the world has indicted climate change in several recent severe droughts from Syria to California. Computer simulations and direct measurements of weather patterns show that climate change can redirect the paths of rainstorms and cause higher temperatures that dry out soil.

The recent Eastern Mediterranean drought was the most extreme in 900 years, new research suggests. Continuing drought conditions (red) may have contributed to the unrest that preceded the Syrian Civil War. Conditions shown here are for late 2015. NASA

In March 2015 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences , researchers estimated that decades-long shifts in Syria’s rainfall and temperatures doubled or even tripled the severity of the three-year drought that preceded the Syrian civil war. Using tree rings, a separate group reported this March in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres that 1998 through 2012 was the driest period in the Eastern Mediterranean since at least 1100.

The recent drought upset regional food security, prompted a mass migration into urban areas and emboldened anti-government forces , 11 retired U.S. admirals and generals wrote in a 2014 report published by CNA, a nonprofit research and analysis organization in Arlington, Va. The clash joins another conflict partly pinned on climate change: the war in Darfur, which broke out in 2003 following a decades-long drop in regional rainfall.

Since the 1970s, droughts have become longer and more severe across the globe, and scientists expect that trend to continue. Dwindling agricultural production in certain high-population areas such as parts of Africa could lead to food shortages that spark refugee crises, the report warned.

“We see more clearly now that while projected climate change should serve as a catalyst for change and cooperation, it can also be a catalyst for conflict,” the retired admirals and generals wrote.

Since the 1970s, droughts have become longer and more severe across the globe and scientists expect that trend to continue.

The minimum extent of Arctic sea ice has shrunk substantially since 1979. Shrinking sea ice can have both regional and global impacts for climate and ecosystems. NASA Scientific Visualization Studio

2006: The Arctic could see its first sea ice–free summers in the next 50 to 70 years.

2016: Arctic summer sea ice may disappear as early as 2052.

The top of the world could see its first iceless summer roughly a decade sooner than thought in 2006, according to a 2015 report ( SN Online: 8/3/15 ). Simulating how sea ice interacts with the ocean using the latest understanding of how sea ice and climate interact, scientists estimated that the North Pole will be ice-free around 2052 , nine years earlier than previous simulations suggested. Last year saw the fourth smallest footprint of summer sea ice in the Arctic on record. Ice-free Arctic summers would open the region to shipping and could affect climates elsewhere by redirecting the winds that circle the North Pole, the researchers wrote. The loss of reflective sea ice could also hasten warming as the dark ocean absorbs more sunlight. Newly open passages may also allow mingling of animals from formerly separated habitats ( SN: 1/23/16, p. 14 ).

OPEN WATER Rising temperatures in the Arctic have dwindled the extent of summer sea ice, like that seen at left, taken from the deck of a research ship in July 2011. Since 1979, the minimum summer sea ice extent has decreased more than 7.5 percent per decade. Source: NSDIC; Image: Kathryn Hansen/NASA

The top of the world could see its first iceless summer almost a decade sooner than thought a decade ago

Antarctica’s Larsen B Ice Shelf collapsed into hundreds of icebergs in 2002, speeding the melt of its tributary glaciers. Ted Scambos/National Snow and Ice Data Center

2006: Rising temperatures are warming the Antarctic and melting the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

2016: The West Antarctic Ice Sheet could cross a point of no return.

In 2002, an ice behemoth crumbled. Antarctica’s Larsen B Ice Shelf, after 12,000 years of frozen stability, collapsed. The breakdown rapidly shattered 3,250 square kilometers of ice — an area about the size of Rhode Island ( SN: 10/18/14, p. 9 ).

“Larsen B was a real wake-up call,” says Maureen Raymo, a marine geologist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in Palisades, N.Y. “It was like, ‘whoa, this ice shelf didn’t just slowly retreat on its edge — the whole thing just collapsed catastrophically over the course of two weeks.’ ”

FAREWELL, ICE As Antarctica’s ice melts, warm seawater will flow through low-lying channels currently filled with ice and accelerate further melting. An ice-free Antarctica (beige area) would leave less land above sea level (blue shows footprint of current continent). Mark Helper/Univ. of Texas at Austin

Now with 10 years of on-the-ice research, scientists warn that the rest of the West Antarctic ice could share a shockingly swift fate unimaginable a decade ago. The ice sheet’s collapse would raise global sea levels by about 3 meters ( SN: 6/14/14, p. 11 ).

Ice shelves line about 45 percent of the Antarctic coast and help slow the flow of the continent’s ice into the sea. For healthy ice shelves, the flow of ice from inland balances losses from melting and icebergs snapping off the shelf’s seaward edge. Rising temperatures below and above the ice can fracture and thin the ice, upsetting this balance.

The loss of just a few ice shelves in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could destabilize the whole region, according to new research by climate scientists Anders Levermann and Johannes Feldmann of the University of Potsdam in Germany. In a computer simulation, the researchers found that the loss of a few key ice shelves around Antarctica’s Amundsen Sea would trigger a domino effect. Seawater would flow into the flanks of other ice and expedite melting. Such a collapse would annihilate the entire West Antarctic Ice Sheet within hundreds to thousands of years, they predict.

Once started, this chain reaction would be unstoppable , the researchers reported last November in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences . Even if global temperatures return to normal, the ice sheet would still be doomed, according to the simulation. In 2014, researchers reported that one of those keystone ice shelves, the Thwaites Glacier, is on track to recede past an underwater ridge currently stalling its retreat and undergo catastrophic collapse in as few as two centuries.

Thousands of square kilometers of ice disintegrated from Antarctica’s Larsen B Ice Shelf in the Southern Hemisphere in summer 2002. In January, blue melt ponds crisscrossed the ice shelf’s surface. MODIS, NASA's Earth Observatory

By February 17, the leading edge of the shelf had retreated 10 kilometers and the ice began to splinter. MODIS, NASA's Earth Observatory

Several more massive icebergs fractured from the ice shelf by February 23. MODIS, NASA's Earth Observatory

A satellite image captured March 7 revealed a mixture of slush and icebergs. MODIS, NASA's Earth Observatory

Churned up ice from the shelf’s underside gave this debris a bright blue tinge. MODIS, NASA's Earth Observatory

As cold autumn temperatures arrived, white snow fell on the remnants of the ice shelf and, by April 13, fresh sea ice packed into the bay. MODIS, NASA's Earth Observatory

Exactly what magnitude of warming will push the West Antarctic Ice Sheet past the point of no return remains uncertain, says Richard Alley, a glaciologist at Penn State. “It’s hard to predict how the ice will fracture,” he says. “That’s why you don’t want to tiptoe up on the disaster point. The edge between ‘it’s still there’ and ‘it’s had a catastrophic failure’ is something to be completely avoided.”

The other half of the Antarctic continent has shown more resistance to climate change, and hasn’t kept up with the global warming trend of the last few decades. That’s good news, since the East Antarctic Ice Sheet holds more water than its sibling — enough to raise sea levels by about 60 meters if it fails.

Last year, however, researchers using radar to penetrate the Antarctic ice announced that East Antarctica’s largest glacier, Totten Glacier, is still vulnerable. It may be at risk from encroaching ice-melting seawater . Radar maps revealed two seafloor troughs that could allow warm ocean water to melt the glacier’s underside, the researchers reported in Nature Geoscience . The glacier alone holds enough water to raise global sea levels by at least 3.3 meters, though its collapse could take centuries, the researchers noted.

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse would raise global sea levels by as much as 3 meters

Expanding seawater and melting ice threaten the very existence of many island nations, including the Maldives. As climate change continues, rising sea levels could reshape Earth’s coastlines. KlemenR/iStockphoto

2006: Melting ice and expanding seawater are raising global sea levels.

2016: Historical evidence suggests sea levels can rise more than 10 times as fast as they are now.

In the Indian Ocean, a city seems to rise out of the waves. The island of Malé, the capital of the Maldives and home to more than 150,000 people, sits just two or three meters above sea level ( SN: 2/28/09, p. 24 ). The residents of Malé are a small portion of the approximately 200 million people worldwide living along coastlines within five meters of sea level. By the end of the century, as sea levels reach inland and coastal communities grow, the population at risk of rising waters may balloon to as high as 500 million.

The global average sea level currently rises about three millimeters per year, with a meter of total sea level rise expected by 2100 if carbon emissions aren’t curtailed. Some areas, such as the U.S. East Coast, are experiencing even faster sea level rise. In February, researchers reported in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that 20th century sea level rise was faster than any other century since Rome was founded ( SN: 4/2/16, p. 20 ).

RAISING THE STAKES Projections of future sea level rise vary, but scientists warn that even a small increase in sea level can worsen flooding and change coastlines. Sea level rise primarily stems from two sources: the thermal expansion of seawater and meltwater from land-based ice. Source: NOAA, Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment 2012

While sea levels are rising fast, they have the ability to climb even faster. Scientists are looking further into the future and investigating just how fast sea level rise could get, especially with a hypothetical collapse of the Antarctic ice sheets. Results gleaned from past warm periods suggest that sea levels can rise much faster than suggested just a few years ago — more than 10 times the present rate.

“Sea level is probably the biggest irreversible risk of global warming,” Columbia’s Raymo says. “I expect a hell of a lot more people are going to be personally impacted by a one-meter rise in sea level than by the extinction of the grand ladybug of something or other.”

Most records of ancient climates provide only a snapshot of how high sea levels have reached at a given time, not how quickly they moved up or down. But on a 2005 expedition to Tahiti, a research team caught a break. Because coral reefs require plenty of light to thrive, they typically take root in waters shallower than 10 meters deep. As sea levels rose in the past, corals moved higher up the newly submerged coastline. Off the coast of Tahiti, the researchers sampled fossils of ancient corals from the last 150,000 years buried in layers of ocean sediment. Dating the corals using the known decay rate of radioactive uranium into other elements, the researchers created an accurate, long-term sea level record.

Move slider at center to compare images

RISING TIDE A one-meter rise in sea levels would reshape many U.S. coastlines, including this section of North Carolina’s coast. Blue regions show areas submerged by water. Many scientists expect that sea levels will rise by a meter by 2100. Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts /NOAA

Around the end of Earth’s last glacial period, about 14,650 years ago, sea levels rose about 14 to 18 meters, the researchers reported in 2012 in Nature . What surprised those researchers is how quickly this rise happened: Sea levels rose at least 46 millimeters per year during that period. The scientists concluded that at least half of the 14 meters of sea level rise during this bout of warming originated from melting Antarctic ice.

“The scary thing, and this is why it’s kind of apocalyptic, is that once you start these things, they don’t stop,” Raymo says. “Everything we see shows that, if you look in the past, each increment of warmth seems to correlate with increasingly higher sea level.”

Approximate number of people worldwide living along coastlines within five meters of sea level.

Scorching temperatures killed hundreds of people last year in Pakistan. Continued global warming will increase the risk of heat-related deaths, researchers warn. Shakil Adil/AP Photo

2006: Warming temperatures will cause more frequent and more deadly heat waves.

2016: Humidity may make future heat waves deadlier; cold snaps are on the decline.

Last summer, sweltering heat waves scorched India and Pakistan. The extreme temperatures killed thousands of people and were two of the deadliest heat waves since 1900. Such lethal heat will become more common as the planet continues warming, climate scientist Ethan Coffel of Columbia University said last December at the American Geophysical Union’s fall meeting.

LESS EXTREME COLD Since the early 1900s in the United States, climate change has increased the frequency of abnormally hot summer days. But an expected rise in cold snaps has not played out. Areas hit by unusually cold temperatures in winter are declining. Source: NOAA 2015

The problem, Coffel said, is that climate change will raise humidity in many places alongside temperature as hot air wicks up more moisture. The evaporation of sweat keeps people cool when it’s hot, but high humidity can slow or even shut off this skin-cooling evaporation. Rising humidity will make rising temperatures more deadly than previously feared , he said. By the 2060s, Coffel predicts, 250 million people worldwide could face deadly levels of heat and humidity at least once a year.

While heat waves worsen, researchers say that another killer weather phenomenon will become less common . The frequency of abnormally cold periods in North America will decrease by roughly 20 percent by the 2030s , researchers reported last year ( SN Online: 4/2/15 ). The work overturned previous projections of a rise in cold snaps over the coming decades as climate change redirects frigid Arctic winds. From 2006 through 2010, about twice as many people in the United States died from cold-related causes, such as hypothermia, than from excessive heat.

By the 2060s, Coffel predicts that 250 million people worldwide could face deadly levels of heat and humidity at least once a year.

China’s cities (Beijing’s Tiananmen Square shown) have suffered worsening air quality. Health risks posed by that pollution have motivated the country’s government to invest in low-emission alternatives to fossil fuels such as wind, solar and nuclear power. Spondylolithesis/iStockphoto

2006: The long-term effects of climate change deserve immediate action.

2016: Taking action comes with other, more immediate perks.

After decades of troubled negotiations and false starts, 195 nations from around the world gathered last December in Paris and agreed to take action on climate change ( SN: 1/9/16, p. 6 ). The new commitment, to reverse the rise in greenhouse gas emissions and limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial level, would have seemed impossible 10 years ago. Delegates will meet in a few years to decide whether to target a more ambitious limit of 1.5 degrees.

What’s changed is motivation, says Andrew Jones, a system dynamics modeler at Climate Interactive, a nonprofit organization in Washington, D.C., that works in partnership with MIT’s Sloan School of Management. Rather than focus on global climate benefits of curtailing fossil fuel emissions, which will take years to pan out, climate action is now increasingly driven by more immediate benefits, he says, such as improving public health. In February, researchers estimated that ambitious climate action in the United States would improve air quality enough to prevent 295,000 premature deaths by 2030 and save the economy hundreds of billions of dollars in medical costs.

Nearly 10 years after An Inconvenient Truth , 195 nations agreed to try to curb climate change. While Al Gore argued in the film that swift action was needed to prevent long-term problems, politicians are now increasingly motivated by immediate benefits. Patrick Kovarik/AFP/Getty Images

“Waiting for climate results is delayed gratification — it’s difficult to motivate continued action,” Jones says. “But if you reduce burning coal, air quality improves almost immediately.”

China, the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, backed the new climate deal after years of dragging its feet. The change of heart was chiefly driven by a desire to cut air pollution, not combat climate change, says MIT atmospheric scientist Kerry Emanuel. Earlier in December, smog-filled Beijing issued the country’s first pollution red alert and shut down the city until conditions improved.

Scouring recent climate change pledges, Jones and colleagues found that 60 percent of commitments, including those made by the United States, Mexico and South Korea, were explicitly motivated by short-term public health and economic benefits. Jones helps maintain C-ROADS, a climate simulator that forecasts the long-term outcome of climate action plans. Understanding and embracing the benefits of climate action will be essential to paving a path forward, Jones says, because C-ROADS has demonstrated that there are “hundreds” of ways to meet the 2-degree warming goal.

“We’ve moved from whether we’re going to do this to how we’re going to do this,” he says. “And that is very encouraging.”

Meeting the challenges posed by climate change will be hard, but Lonnie Thompson remains optimistic. “Three-and-a-half years ago I had a heart transplant,” he says. “At any other time in human history, this would have been thought of as impossible — my father died at age 41 of a heart attack. As human beings we’ve made tremendous progress on so many fronts. There will always be this resistance to change, but as a species, we’re capable of dealing with those changes.”

“Waiting for climate results is delayed gratification.... But if you reduce burning coal, air quality improves almost immediately.” Andrew Jones

 view all topics  > Climate change

Humans are causing global warming

How is global warming affecting life in Australia?

Global warming stresses ecosystems through rising temperatures, water shortages, increased fire threats, drought, weed and pest invasions, intense storm damage, and salt invasion, to name a few. Some of Australia’s great natural icons, such as the  Great Barrier Reef , are already threatened.

One in six  species  is at risk of extinction because of climate change. Australia currently holds the unenviable title for the world’s highest rate of mammal extinctions . To survive, plants, animals and birds confronted with climate change have two options: move or adapt. With the speed of climate change we are already experiencing, it’s often not possible for a species to adapt quickly enough to keep up with its changing environment. And with the amount of habitat destruction, moving is becoming increasingly difficult.

Food and farming

Changes to rainfall patterns, increasingly severe drought, more frequent heatwaves, flooding and extreme weather make it more difficult for farmers to graze livestock and grow produce, reducing food availability and making it more expensive to buy.

Rainfall patterns are changing across Australia. In southwest and southeast Australia, rainfall has been below average for 17 of the past 20 years. Reduced rainfall and increasingly severe droughts have already led to severe water shortages in large areas of New South Wales.

Coastal Erosion

Rising sea levels and more frequent and intense storm surges will cause more erosion of Australia's coastline, wearing away and inundating community and residential properties. Coastal erosion also significantly impacts local biodiversity that depends on coastal habitats like mangroves and seagrass to survive.

Increasingly severe and frequent heatwaves may lead to death and illness, especially among the elderly. Higher temperatures and humidity could also produce more mosquito-borne diseases. At the same time, bushfires are impacting overall air quality, while floods can contaminate our drinking water supplies.

Damage to homes

Increasingly severe extreme weather events like bushfires, storms, floods, cyclones and coastal erosion will see increased damage to homes, as well as more costly insurance premiums. Research revealed that up to 1.6 million homes in Australia were already at moderate or high risk from climate change-related extreme weather. This number is expected to jump up to 2.6 million homes by 2050.

Coral bleaching

Rising temperatures and acidity within our oceans contribute to extreme coral bleaching events happening more frequently. In 2024, the fourth global mass bleaching event was confirmed, the second event in 10 years. The Great Barrier Reef has been under significant heat stress – experiencing five mass bleaching events in just eight years, and the 2024 event is feared to be the most widespread and damaging to date.

Learn more about global warming and climate change

Causes of global warming

Effects of global warming on our oceans

Our oceans are critical to human health and well-being. Without them, we simply cannot survive. But due to global warming, the future of our oceans is on a knife edge. 

What is WWF doing

To save the species, places, and communities we love, we must do everything possible to keep global warming at 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The good news is we have the solutions and opportunities to do this.    It’s not too late.  WWF-Australia is dedicated to supporting Australia to become a global leader in securing a healthy climate powered by communities, nature and renewable energy.

Renewables Australia

Climate change is rapidly impacting the people, animals and places we love – and the impacts are not equal for some. Australia needs to rapidly shift towards a more…

Nature-based solutions

Nature can help us address the biggest challenges facing our world. 

COP31: Australia's Opportunity

Australia has a unique opportunity to work with the Pacific to secure a defining moment for climate, nature and communities if called on to host COP31 in 2026. 

We must restore and regenerate our planet for everything that calls it home. 

How you can help

Calculate your Ecological footprint

When is your Earth Overshoot day? How many planets are needed if everyone lives like you? Calculate your Ecological footprint.

Save Threatened Wildlife

Help bring our threatened Australian animals and the places they call home back from the brink of extinction. Sign the petition now and help regenerate nature.

Donate to WWF-Australia today to save our precious wildlife from extinction and protect the natural places they call home.

What are the effects of global warming?

The effects of global warming will be far-reaching and often devastating, scientists have warned.

• Temperature extremes
• Extreme weather

Sea levels and ocean acidification

Plants and animals, social effects.

• Further reading

Additional resources

Bibliography.

The effects of global warming can be seen and felt across the planet. Global warming , the gradual heating of Earth's surface, oceans and atmosphere, is caused by human activity, primarily the burning of fossil fuels that pump carbon dioxide (CO2), methane and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

Already, the consequences of global warming are measurable and visible.

"We can observe this happening in real time in many places," Josef Werne, a professor of geology and environmental science at the University of Pittsburgh, told Live Science. "Ice is melting in both polar ice caps and mountain glaciers. Lakes around the world, including Lake Superior, are warming rapidly — in some cases faster than the surrounding environment. Animals are changing migration patterns and plants are changing the dates of activity," such as trees budding their leaves earlier in the spring and dropping them later in the fall.

Here is an in-depth look at the ongoing effects of global warming.

Global warming increases average temperatures and temperature extremes

One of the most immediate and obvious consequences of global warming is the increase in temperatures around the world. The average global temperature has increased by about 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit (0.8 degrees Celsius) over the past 100 years, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Since record keeping began in 1895, the hottest year on record worldwide was 2016, according to NOAA and NASA data . That year Earth's surface temperature was 1.78 degrees F (0.99 degrees C) warmer than the average across the entire 20th century. Before 2016, 2015 was the warmest year on record, globally. And before 2015? Yep, 2014. In fact, all 10 of the warmest years on record have occurred since 2005, which tied with 2013 as the 10th-warmest year on record, according to NOAA’s Global Climate Report 2021 . Rounding out the top 6 hottest years on record across the globe are (in order of hottest to not as hot): 2020, 2019, 2015, 2017 and 2021.

For the contiguous United States and Alaska, 2016 was the second-warmest year on record and the 20th consecutive year that the annual average surface temperature exceeded the 122-year average since record keeping began, according to NOAA . Shattered heat records in the U.S. are increasingly becoming the norm: June 2021, for example, saw the warmest temperatures on record for that month for 15.2%of the contiguous U.S. That's the largest extent of record warm temperatures ever recorded in the country, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information .

Global warming increases extreme weather events

As global average temperatures warm, weather patterns are changing. An immediate consequence of global warming is extreme weather. 

These extremes come in a lot of different flavors. Paradoxically, one effect of climate change can be colder-than-normal winters in some areas.

Changes in climate can cause the polar jet stream — the boundary between the cold North Pole air and the warm equatorial air — to migrate south, bringing with it cold, Arctic air. This is why some states can have a sudden cold snap or colder-than-normal winter, even during the long-term trend of global warming, Werne explained.

Werne received his doctorate in Geological Sciences at Northwestern University in 2000 with an emphasis in Biogeochemistry. He was a postdoctoral research scientist at the Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research from 2000 to 2002 and on the faculty of the Large Lakes Observatory and Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry (assistant/associate professor) at the University of Minnesota Duluth, before joining the department in 2012. Werne spent a year in Perth, Australia, as a visiting senior fellow at the Institute for Advanced Studies of the University of Western Australia, as well as a visiting scientist in the Western Australia Organic and Isotope Geochemistry Centre at Curtin University.

"Climate is, by definition, the long-term average of weather, over many years. One cold (or warm) year or season has little to do with overall climate. It is when those cold (or warm) years become more and more regular that we start to recognize it as a change in climate rather than simply an anomalous year of weather," he said. Global warming is also changing other extreme weather. According to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory of NOAA , hurricanes are likely to become more intense, on average, in a warming world. Most computer models suggest that hurricane frequency will stay about the same (or even decrease), but those storms that do form will have the capacity to drop more rain due to the fact that warmer air holds more moisture.

"And even if they become less frequent globally, hurricanes could still become more frequent in some particular areas," said atmospheric scientist Adam Sobel, author of " Storm Surge: Hurricane Sandy, Our Changing Climate, and Extreme Weather of the Past and Future " (HarperWave, 2014). "Additionally, scientists are confident that hurricanes will become more intense due to climate change." This is because hurricanes get their energy from the temperature difference between the warm tropical ocean and the cold upper atmosphere. Global warming increases that temperature difference. "Since the most damage by far comes from the most intense hurricanes — such as typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines in 2013 — this means that hurricanes could become overall more destructive," said Sobel, a Columbia University professor in the departments of Earth and Environmental Sciences, and Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics. (Hurricanes are called typhoons in the western North Pacific, and they're called cyclones in the South Pacific and Indian oceans.) What's more, hurricanes of the future will be hitting shorelines that are already prone to flooding due to the sea-level rise caused by climate change. This means that any given storm will likely cause more damage than it would have in a world without global warming.

Lightning is another weather feature that is being affected by global warming. According to a 2014 study , a 50% increase in the number of lightning strikes within the United States is expected by 2100 if global temperatures continue to rise. The researchers of the study found a 12% increase in lightning activity for every 1.8 degree F (1 degree C) of warming in the atmosphere. NOAA established the U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) in 1996 to track extreme weather events. The number of extreme weather events that are among the most unusual in the historical record, according to the CEI, has been rising over the last four decades. Scientists project that extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts , blizzards and rainstorms will continue to occur more often and with greater intensity due to global warming, according to Climate Central . Climate models forecast that global warming will cause climate patterns worldwide to experience significant changes. These changes will likely include major shifts in wind patterns, annual precipitation and seasonal temperatures variations. These impacts vary by location and geography. For example, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) , the eastern United States has been trending wetter over time, while the West – and particularly the Southwest – have become increasingly dry. Because high levels of greenhouse gases are likely to remain in the atmosphere for many years, these changes are expected to last for several decades or longer, according to the EPA.

Global warming melts ice

One of the primary manifestations of climate change so far is melt. North America, Europe and Asia have all seen a trend toward less snow cover between 1960 and 2015, according to 2016 research published in the journal Current Climate Change Reports. According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, there is now 10% less permafrost , or permanently frozen ground, in the Northern Hemisphere than there was in the early 1900s. The thawing of permafrost can cause landslides and other sudden land collapses . It can also release long-buried microbes, as in a 2016 case when a cache of buried reindeer carcasses thawed and caused an outbreak of anthrax . One of the most dramatic effects of global warming is the reduction in Arctic sea ice. Sea ice hit record-low extents in both the fall and winter of 2015 and 2016, meaning that at the time when the ice is supposed to be at its peak, it was lagging. The melt means there is less thick sea ice that persists for multiple years. That means less heat is reflected back into the atmosphere by the shiny surface of the ice and more is absorbed by the comparatively darker ocean, creating a feedback loop that causes even more melt, according to NASA's Operation IceBridge . Glacial retreat, too, is an obvious effect of global warming. Only 25 glaciers bigger than 25 acres are now found in Montana's Glacier National Park, where about 150 glaciers were once found, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. A similar trend is seen in glacial areas worldwide. According to a 2016 study in the journal Nature Geoscience, there is a 99% likelihood that this rapid retreat is due to human-caused climate change. Some glaciers retreated up to 15 times as much as they would have without global warming, those researchers found.

In general, as ice melts, sea levels rise. According to a 2021 report by the World Meteorological Organization , the pace of sea level rise doubled from 0.08 inches (2.1 millimeters) per year between 1993 and 2002 to 0.17 inches (4.4 mm) per year between 2013 and 2021. 

Melting polar ice in the Arctic and Antarctic regions, coupled with melting ice sheets and glaciers across Greenland, North America, South America, Europe and Asia, are expected to raise sea levels significantly. Global sea levels have risen about 8 inches since 1870, according to the EPA, and the rate of increase is expected to accelerate in the coming years. If current trends continue, many coastal areas, where roughly half of the Earth's human population lives, will be inundated.

Researchers project that by 2100, average sea levels will be 2.3 feet (.7 meters) higher in New York City, 2.9 feet (0.88 m) higher at Hampton Roads, Virginia, and 3.5 feet (1.06 m) higher at Galveston, Texas, the EPA reports. According to an IPCC report , if greenhouse gas emissions remain unchecked, global sea levels could rise by as much as 3 feet (0.9 meters) by 2100. That estimate is an increase from the estimated 0.9 to 2.7 feet (0.3 to 0.8 meters) that was predicted in the 2007 IPCC report for future sea-level rise.

Sea level isn't the only thing changing for the oceans due to global warming. As levels of CO2 increase, the oceans absorb some of that gas, which increases the acidity of seawater. Werne explains it this way: "When you dissolved CO2 in water, you get carbonic acid. This is the same exact thing that happens in cans of soda. When you pop the top on a can of Dr Pepper, the pH is 2 — quite acidic."  

Since the Industrial Revolution began in the early 1700s, the acidity of the oceans has increased about 25 percent, according to the EPA. "This is a problem in the oceans, in large part, because many marine organisms make shells out of calcium carbonate (think corals, oysters), and their shells dissolve in acid solution," said Werne. "So as we add more and more CO2 to the ocean, it gets more and more acidic, dissolving more and more shells of sea creatures. It goes without saying that this is not good for their health."

If current ocean acidification trends continue, coral reefs are expected to become increasingly rare in areas where they are now common, including most U.S. waters, the EPA reports. In 2016 and 2017, portions of the Great Barrier Reef in Australia were hit with bleaching , a phenomenon in which coral eject their symbiotic algae. Bleaching is a sign of stress from too-warm waters, unbalanced pH or pollution ; coral can recover from bleaching, but back-to-back episodes make recovery less likely.

The effects of global warming on Earth's ecosystems are expected to be significant and widespread. Many species of plants and animals are already moving their range northward or to higher altitudes as a result of warming temperatures, according to a report from the National Academy of Sciences.

"They are not just moving north, they are moving from the equator toward the poles. They are quite simply following the range of comfortable temperatures, which is migrating to the poles as the global average temperature warms," Werne said. Ultimately, he said, this becomes a problem when the rate of climate change velocity (how fast a region changes put into a spatial term) is faster than the rate that many organisms can migrate. Because of this, many animals may not be able to compete in the new climate regime and may go extinct.

Additionally, migratory birds and insects are now arriving in their summer feeding and nesting grounds several days or weeks earlier than they did in the 20th century, according to the EPA.

Warmer temperatures will also expand the range of many disease-causing pathogens that were once confined to tropical and subtropical areas, killing off plant and animal species that formerly were protected from disease.

In addition, animals that live in the polar regions are facing an existential threat. In the Arctic, the decline in sea ice and changes in ice melt threaten particularly ice-dependent species, such as narwhals ( Monodon monoceros ), polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) and walruses ( Odobenus rosmarus ), the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) noted. Animals in the Antarctic also face serious challenges — in Oct. 2022 the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service declared emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) as endangered due to the threat of climate change. 

A 2020 study published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences suggested that 1 in every 3 species of plant and animal are at risk of extinction by 2070 due to climate change.

As dramatic as the effects of climate change are expected to be on the natural world, the projected changes to human society may be even more devastating.

Agricultural systems will likely be dealt a crippling blow. Though growing seasons in some areas will expand, the combined impacts of drought, severe weather, lack of accumulated snowmelt, greater number and diversity of pests, lower groundwater tables and a loss of arable land could cause severe crop failures and livestock shortages worldwide.

North Carolina State University also notes that carbon dioxide is affecting plant growth. Though CO2 can increase the growth of plants, the plants may become less nutritious.

This loss of food security may, in turn, create havoc in international food markets and could spark famines, food riots, political instability and civil unrest worldwide, according to a number of analyses from sources as diverse as the U.S Department of Defense, the Center for American Progress and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.

In addition to less nutritious food, the effect of global warming on human health is also expected to be serious. The American Medical Association has reported an increase in mosquito-borne diseases like malaria and dengue fever, as well as a rise in cases of chronic conditions like asthma, most likely as a direct result of global warming. The 2016 outbreak of Zika virus , a mosquito-borne illness, highlighted the dangers of climate change. The disease causes devastating birth defects in fetuses when pregnant women are infected, and climate change could make higher-latitude areas habitable for the mosquitoes that spread the disease, experts said. Longer, hotter summers could also lead to the spread of tick-borne illnesses .

Further reading on the impacts of global warming

Many governments and agencies keep up-to-date information on climate change research and statistics online. The most comprehensive and in-depth global reports are produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which released its Sixth Assessment Report on the science of climate change in 2021.

— 8 ominous climate milestones reached in 2021

— Ignoring climate change will lead to 'untold suffering,' scientist panel warns

— Earth's lower atmosphere is expanding due to climate change

For a historical look at the effects of climate change on Earth (and how modern warming compares), read Peter Brannen's " The Ends of the Earth: Volcanic Apocalypses, Lethal Oceans, and Our Quest to Understand Earth’s Past Mass Extinctions " (Ecco, 2017).

For more on the potential impacts of climate change in urban environments, the freely available book chapter Climate Change and its Impacts in the book " Climate Change Resilience in the Urban Environment " (IOP Publishing, 2017) covers the challenges that lay ahead for human populations.

Finally, for a psychological deep-dive on why all of this bad news is hard to take in, try " Don't Even Think About It: Why Our Brains Are Wired to Ignore Climate Change " (Bloomsbury USA, 2015) by climate activist and communicator George Marshall.

• This NASA page includes a series of visualizations that illustrate how some of Earth's key climate indicators —  sea ice, sea level, global temperature and carbon dioxide — are changing over time.
• This NOAA sea-level rise learning module includes educational videos, background for teachers, learning objectives and more.
• ClimateBrief has gathered 10 of the best climate change videos on YouTube. 
• EPA: Climate Change: Basic Information  
• NASA: Global Climate Change
• NOAA: Climate News and Data

Sign up for the Live Science daily newsletter now

Get the world’s most fascinating discoveries delivered straight to your inbox.

'Precipitation, the source of all fresh water, can no longer be relied upon': Global water cycle pushed out of balance 'for 1st time in human history'

Ancient piece of driftwood hidden for thousands of years could hold secrets for combating climate change

How old is planet Earth?

Most Popular

• 2 Euclid telescope reveals 1st section of largest-ever 3D map of the universe — and there's still 99% to go
• 3 1st wheel was invented 6,000 years ago in the Carpathian Mountains, modeling study suggests
• 4 Doctors no longer recommend 'self-checks' for breast cancer — here's what to know
• 5 Key Atlantic current could collapse soon, 'impacting the entire world for centuries to come,' leading climate scientists warn

An official website of the United States government

Here’s how you know

Official websites use .gov A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.

Secure .gov websites use HTTPS A lock ( Lock A locked padlock ) or https:// means you’ve safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

• Education home
• About NOAA Education
• NOAA in your backyard: Alaska
• NOAA in your backyard: Caribbean
• NOAA in your backyard: Central
• NOAA in your backyard: Great Lakes
• NOAA in your backyard: Gulf of Mexico
• NOAA in your backyard: Mid-Atlantic
• NOAA in your backyard: Northeast
• NOAA in your backyard: Northwest
• NOAA in your backyard: Pacific Islands
• NOAA in your backyard: Southeast
• NOAA in your backyard: Southwest
• Educational mailing lists
• Jul-Sep 2024
• Apr-Jun 2024
• Jan-Mar 2024
• Oct-Dec 2023
• NOAA Sea to Sky: Education resource database
• Ocean acidification
• Ocean currents
• Ocean floor features
• Ocean pollution and marine debris
• El Niño and La Niña
• Space weather
• Weather observations
• Weather systems & patterns
• Carbon cycle
• Changing seasons

Climate change impacts

• Climate data monitoring
• Aquatic food webs
• Coral reef ecosystems
• Fisheries and seafood
• Life in an estuary
• Marine mammals
• Sea turtles
• Great Lakes ecoregion
• Water cycle
• Watersheds, flooding, and pollution
• Data resources for educators
• Education at home
• Elementary resources
• Hands-on science activities
• Special topics
• Conference resources
• About the education resource collections
• Conservation Service Corp Act Direct Hiring Authority
• Finding a career at NOAA
• Educator opportunities
• Grants & networks
• News and stories

Keep exploring

Find even more resources on climate change impacts in our searchable resource database.

CLEAN Collection

Sanctuaries resource collection: Climate change

We often think about human-induced climate change as something that will happen in the future, but it is happening now. Ecosystems and people in the United States and around the world are affected by the ongoing process of climate change today.

A collage of typical climate and weather-related events: floods, heatwaves, drought, hurricanes, wildfires and loss of glacial ice. (Image credit: NOAA)

Climate change affects the environment in many different ways, including rising temperatures, sea level rise, drought, flooding, and more. These events affect things that we depend upon and value, like water, energy, transportation, wildlife, agriculture, ecosystems, and human health.

Our changing climate

NOAA monitors weather and climate around the world. Here are some of the ways that climate change is affecting our planet. You can explore more at NOAA’s Global Climate Dashboard .

Temperature increased about 2°F (1.1°C) from 1850 to 2023. Updated January 2024.

Global average sea level has risen 8–9 inches (21–24 centimeters) since 1880.  Updated April 2022.

Climate reference glaciers tracked by the World Glacier Monitoring Service have  lost ice for the past 36 years in a row.  Updated May 2024 .

 Between 1979 and 2021, the Arctic Ocean lost sea ice at an average of 31,100 square miles, an area the size of South Carolina, per year.  Updated October 2022 .

There is more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere . Carbon dioxide is 50% higher than it was before the Industrial Revolution.  Updated April 2024 .

Snow is melting earlier in the Northern Hemisphere. Between 1967 and 2022, late spring (April-June) snow cover decreased.  Updated August 2022 .

A complex issue

Climate change impacts our society in many different ways. Drought can harm food production and human health. Flooding can lead to spread of disease, death, and damage  ecosystems and infrastructure . Human health issues that result from drought, flooding, and other weather conditions increase the death rate, change food availability, and limit how much a worker can get done, and ultimately the productivity of our economy.

Climate change affects everyone, but the impacts are uneven across the country and around the world. Even within one community, climate change can affect one neighborhood or person more than another. Long-standing differences in income and opportunity, or socioeconomic inequalities , can make some groups more vulnerable. Communities that have less access to resources to protect themselves or cope with impacts are often the same communities that are also more exposed to hazards.

Hope for the future

There is still time to lessen the impacts and severity of climate change. We already know many of the problems and solutions , and researchers continue to find new ones.  Experts believe we can avoid the worst outcomes by reducing emissions to zero as quickly as possible, which will limit warming . To meet this goal, we will have to invest in new technology and infrastructure, which will spur job growth. For example, we will need to continue improving technology and facilities that capture and process renewable energy. Lowering emissions will also benefit human health, saving countless lives and billions of dollars in expenses related to health.

The effects of climate change on our water resources can have a big impact on our world and our lives. Patterns of where, when, and how much precipitation falls are changing as temperatures rise. Some areas are experiencing heavier rain events while others are having more droughts.

Flooding is an increasing issue as our climate is changing. Compared to the beginning of the 20th century,  precipitation events are stronger, heavier, and more frequent across most of the United States.

Drought is also becoming more common , especially in the Western United States. We are using more water during hot weather, especially for agriculture. Much like we sweat more when it is hot out,  hot weather causes plants to lose, or transpire , more water. Then, farmers must give their crops more water.

Snowpack is an important source of fresh water for many people. As the snow melts, fresh water becomes available for use. Snowmelt is particularly important in regions like the Western United States where there is not much precipitation in warmer months. But as temperatures warm, there is less snow and snow begins to melt earlier in the year. This means that snowpack is less likely to be a reliable source of water. 

Fries depend on potatoes, and like all crops, potatoes have a preferred climate. How long will America’s favorite side dish have a safe spot on our menu?

Human health

Climate change is already impacting human health . Changes in weather and climate patterns put lives at risk in many ways:

• Heat is one of the most deadly weather conditions. 
• As ocean temperatures rise, hurricanes are getting stronger and wetter , which can cause death during the hurricane itself and in the aftermath.  
• Dry conditions lead to more wildfires, which bring many health risks . 
• More flooding leads to the spread of  waterborne diseases, injuries, death, and chemical hazards.
• As geographic ranges of mosquitoes, ticks, and other pests  expand, they carry diseases to new locations.

Vulnerable groups

Some people and groups are more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. This can be because of individual traits or as a result of inequities in our society . For example, children, people with certain health conditions, and the elderly are more at-risk. Outdoor workers are more vulnerable because they work in hot and even extreme conditions. Communities with low wealth have less access to healthcare and fewer resources to find new housing if theirs becomes unsafe due to climate change impacts. People of color and communities with low wealth are more vulnerable because they are more likely to live in areas that are less resilient to climate change due to historical and current inequities. But, public health groups can work with local communities to help people understand and build resilience to climate change health impacts. 

The environment

Climate change affects all living things, or organisms, and the environment they live in, but not equally. The Arctic is one of the ecosystems most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. It is warming at least twice as fast as the global average.  Warming in the Arctic has impacts that are felt across the globe — melting land ice sheets and glaciers contribute dramatically to sea level rise. Sea levels are also rising due to thermal expansion. Higher sea level puts coastal areas at greater risk of erosion and storm surge.  

Effects of climate change can build upon one another to damage ecosystems. Sea level rise can cause sediment to smother corals. But, coral reefs  are also vulnerable to many other effects of climate change: warming waters can lead to coral bleaching and stronger hurricanes can destroy reefs. Coral reef ecosystems are home to thousands of species, which rely on healthy coral reefs to survive.

Some organisms are able to adapt to and even benefit from climate change. Some plants have longer growing seasons or are blooming earlier . But, these changes can happen too fast for other plants and animals to keep up. For example, an earlier blooming plant may depend on a pollinator that does not adapt as quickly. 

There are also species that have adapted by expanding or shifting their geographic range, meaning they live in new places that used to be too cold or unsuitable in other ways. As a species expands or shifts its range, it may harm other species that already live in the new area. Existing invasive or nuisance species, like lionfish and ticks , may also thrive in even more places because of climate change

Ocean ecosystems face an additional challenge: ocean acidification . The ocean absorbs about 30% of the carbon dioxide we release into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels. As a result, the water is becoming more acidic, which affects marine life.

NOAA Sea Grant in North Carolina partnered with state and local groups to evaluate strategies for coping with inland road flooding during tropical storms and hurricanes.

EDUCATION CONNECTION

Teaching about climate change can be a daunting challenge, but it is a critical field for students to learn about, as it affects their lives in many ways. The Essential Principles of Climate Literacy , developed by NOAA and other federal partners, are standards that create a framework for teaching climate. The Toolbox for Teaching Climate & Energy explores a learning process to help students engage in climate action in their own communities or on a global scale. For more educator support, NOAA offers professional development opportunities (including the Planet Stewards Program ) about climate and other topics.

Definitions for some of the terms used in this resource collection.

Anthropogenic

Human-caused. 1

Climate resilience

The ability to prepare and plan for, absorb, recover from, and more successfully adapt to adverse events related to climate change. 2

A system made up of the biological, physical, and chemical components that interact with one another in a given area. 3

In the context of climate change, refers to the release of greenhouse gasses by human activities.

Geographic range

The geographic area over which a species lives.

Industrial Revolution

The Industrial Revolution began in the mid-1700s and marks the time during which production of goods transitioned from being mostly handmade to produced with the aid of machines in factories. 6

A heat-related illness characterized by a high body temperature, headache, dizziness, nausea, confusion, a fast and strong pulse, and even passing out. 7

The structures, facilities, and utilities that we need to maintain normalcy in daily life. This includes things related to transportation, like roads, bridges, and ports, and things related to utilities like electricity and drinking water. 8 , 9

Risk communicators

Experts or officials who share information, advice and opinions with people who face a hazard or threat to their wellbeing so that they can make informed decisions and take protective and preventive measures. 10

Socioeconomic inequalities 

Differences in factors such as income, education, or opportunity between communities.

Storm surge 

The abnormal rise in seawater level during a storm. It is measured as the height of the water above the normal predicted astronomical tide. The surge is caused primarily by a storm’s winds pushing water onshore. 11

Thermal expansion

Water expands as it warms, this is a major causes of global sea level rise. 12

Water released into the atmosphere from plant surfaces. 13

Waterborne disease

Diseases spread through water.

Vital Signs

Global temperature, key takeaway:.

The 10 most recent years are the warmest years on record.

This graph shows the change in global surface temperature compared to the long-term average from 1951 to 1980. Earth’s average surface temperature in 2023 was the warmest on record since recordkeeping began in 1880 (source: NASA/GISS ). NASA’s analysis generally matches independent analyses prepared by the​ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and other research groups. Overall, Earth was about 2.45 degrees Fahrenheit (or about 1.36 degrees Celsius) warmer in 2023 than in the late 19th-century (1850-1900) preindustrial average. The 10 most recent years are the warmest on record.

The animation on the right shows the change in global surface temperatures. Dark blue shows areas cooler than average. Dark red shows areas warmer than average. Short-term variations are smoothed out using a 5-year running average to make trends more visible in this map.

The data shown are the latest available, updated annually.

GLOBAL LAND-OCEAN TEMPERATURE INDEX

Time series: 1884 to 2022.

45,000+ students realised their study abroad dream with us. Take the first step today

Here’s your new year gift, one app for all your, study abroad needs, start your journey, track your progress, grow with the community and so much more.

Verification Code

An OTP has been sent to your registered mobile no. Please verify

Thanks for your comment !

Our team will review it before it's shown to our readers.

Essay on Global Warming

• Updated on  
• Apr 27, 2024

Being able to write an essay is an integral part of mastering any language. Essays form an integral part of many academic and scholastic exams like the SAT, and UPSC amongst many others. It is a crucial evaluative part of English proficiency tests as well like IELTS, TOEFL, etc. Major essays are meant to emphasize public issues of concern that can have significant consequences on the world.

To understand the concept of Global Warming and its causes and effects, we must first examine the many factors that influence the planet’s temperature and what this implies for the world’s future. Here’s an unbiased look at the essay on Global Warming and other essential related topics.

This Blog Includes:

Short essay on global warming and climate change, what are the causes of global warming, solutions for global warming, effects of global warming, essay on global warming in 100 – 150 words, global warming essay in 250 words, essay on global warming in 500 words, essay on global warming upsc, climate change and global warming essay, tips to write an essay.

Since the industrial and scientific revolutions, Earth’s resources have been gradually depleted. Furthermore, the start of the world’s population exponential expansion is particularly hard on the environment. Simply put, as the population’s need for consumption grows, so does the use of natural resources , as well as the waste generated by that consumption.

Climate change has been one of the most significant long-term consequences of this. Climate change is more than just the rise or fall of global temperatures; it also affects rain cycles, wind patterns, cyclone frequencies, sea levels, and other factors. It has an impact on all major life groupings on the planet.

Also Read: Essay on Yoga Day

What is Global Warming?

Global warming is the unusually rapid increase in Earth’s average surface temperature over the past century, primarily due to the greenhouse gases released by people burning fossil fuels . The greenhouse gases consist of methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, carbon dioxide, water vapour, and chlorofluorocarbons. The weather prediction has been becoming more complex with every passing year, with seasons more indistinguishable, and the general temperatures hotter.

The number of hurricanes, cyclones, droughts, floods, etc., has risen steadily since the onset of the 21st century. The supervillain behind all these changes is Global Warming. The name is quite self-explanatory; it means the rise in the temperature of the Earth.

According to recent studies, many scientists believe the following are the primary four causes of global warming:

• Deforestation 
• Greenhouse emissions
• Carbon emissions per capita

Extreme global warming is causing natural disasters , which can be seen all around us. One of the causes of global warming is the extreme release of greenhouse gases that become trapped on the earth’s surface, causing the temperature to rise. Similarly, volcanoes contribute to global warming by spewing excessive CO2 into the atmosphere.

The increase in population is one of the major causes of Global Warming. This increase in population also leads to increased air pollution . Automobiles emit a lot of CO2, which remains in the atmosphere. This increase in population is also causing deforestation, which contributes to global warming.

The earth’s surface emits energy into the atmosphere in the form of heat, keeping the balance with the incoming energy. Global warming depletes the ozone layer, bringing about the end of the world. There is a clear indication that increased global warming will result in the extinction of all life on Earth’s surface.

Of course, industries and multinational conglomerates emit more carbon than the average citizen. Nonetheless, activism and community effort are the only viable ways to slow the worsening effects of global warming. Furthermore, at the state or government level, world leaders must develop concrete plans and step-by-step programmes to ensure that no further harm is done to the environment in general.

Although we are almost too late to slow the rate of global warming, finding the right solution is critical. Everyone, from individuals to governments, must work together to find a solution to Global Warming. Some of the factors to consider are pollution control, population growth, and the use of natural resources.

One very important contribution you can make is to reduce your use of plastic. Plastic is the primary cause of global warming, and recycling it takes years. Another factor to consider is deforestation, which will aid in the control of global warming. More tree planting should be encouraged to green the environment. Certain rules should also govern industrialization. Building industries in green zones that affect plants and species should be prohibited.

Also Read: Essay on Pollution

Global warming is a real problem that many people want to disprove to gain political advantage. However, as global citizens, we must ensure that only the truth is presented in the media.

This decade has seen a significant impact from global warming. The two most common phenomena observed are glacier retreat and arctic shrinkage. Glaciers are rapidly melting. These are clear manifestations of climate change.

Another significant effect of global warming is the rise in sea level. Flooding is occurring in low-lying areas as a result of sea-level rise. Many countries have experienced extreme weather conditions. Every year, we have unusually heavy rain, extreme heat and cold, wildfires, and other natural disasters.

Similarly, as global warming continues, marine life is being severely impacted. This is causing the extinction of marine species as well as other problems. Furthermore, changes are expected in coral reefs, which will face extinction in the coming years. These effects will intensify in the coming years, effectively halting species expansion. Furthermore, humans will eventually feel the negative effects of Global Warming.

Sample Essays on Global Warming

These sample essays on global warming explore its causes, impacts, and potential solutions. We offer essays on global warming in various lengths, including 100, 150, 250, and 500 words. Take a look!

Global Warming is caused by the increase of carbon dioxide levels in the earth’s atmosphere and is a result of human activities that have been causing harm to our environment for the past few centuries now. Global Warming is something that can’t be ignored and steps have to be taken to tackle the situation globally. The average temperature is constantly rising by 1.5 degrees Celsius over the last few years.

The best method to prevent future damage to the earth, cutting down more forests should be banned and Afforestation should be encouraged. Start by planting trees near your homes and offices, participate in events, and teach the importance of planting trees. It is impossible to undo the damage but it is possible to stop further harm.

Over a long period, it is observed that the temperature of the earth is increasing. This affected wildlife, animals, humans, and every living organism on earth. Glaciers have been melting, and many countries have started water shortages, flooding, and erosion and all this is because of global warming. 

No one can be blamed for global warming except for humans. Human activities such as gases released from power plants, transportation, and deforestation have increased gases such as carbon dioxide, CFCs, and other pollutants in the earth’s atmosphere. The main question is how can we control the current situation and build a better world for future generations. It starts with little steps by every individual. 

Start using cloth bags made from sustainable materials for all shopping purposes, instead of using high-watt lights use energy-efficient bulbs, switch off the electricity, don’t waste water, abolish deforestation and encourage planting more trees. Shift the use of energy from petroleum or other fossil fuels to wind and solar energy. Instead of throwing out the old clothes donate them to someone so that it is recycled. 

Donate old books, don’t waste paper.  Above all, spread awareness about global warming. Every little thing a person does towards saving the earth will contribute in big or small amounts. We must learn that 1% effort is better than no effort. Pledge to take care of Mother Nature and speak up about global warming.

Also Read: Concept of Sustainable Development

Global warming isn’t a prediction, it is happening! A person denying it or unaware of it is in the most simple terms complicit. Do we have another planet to live on? Unfortunately, we have been bestowed with this one planet only that can sustain life yet over the years we have turned a blind eye to the plight it is in. Global warming is not an abstract concept but a global phenomenon occurring ever so slowly even at this moment. Global Warming is a phenomenon that is occurring every minute resulting in a gradual increase in the Earth’s overall climate. Brought about by greenhouse gases that trap the solar radiation in the atmosphere, global warming can change the entire map of the earth, displacing areas, flooding many countries, and destroying multiple lifeforms. Extreme weather is a direct consequence of global warming but it is not an exhaustive consequence. There are virtually limitless effects of global warming which are all harmful to life on earth. The sea level is increasing by 0.12 inches per year worldwide. This is happening because of the melting of polar ice caps because of global warming. This has increased the frequency of floods in many lowland areas and has caused damage to coral reefs. The Arctic is one of the worst-hit areas affected by global warming. Air quality has been adversely affected and the acidity of the seawater has also increased causing severe damage to marine life forms. Severe natural disasters are brought about by global warming which has had dire effects on life and property. As long as mankind produces greenhouse gases, global warming will continue to accelerate. The consequences are felt at a much smaller scale which will increase to become drastic shortly. The power to save the day lies in the hands of humans, the need is to seize the day. Energy consumption should be reduced on an individual basis. Fuel-efficient cars and other electronics should be encouraged to reduce the wastage of energy sources. This will also improve air quality and reduce the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Global warming is an evil that can only be defeated when fought together. It is better late than never. If we all take steps today, we will have a much brighter future tomorrow. Global warming is the bane of our existence and various policies have come up worldwide to fight it but that is not enough. The actual difference is made when we work at an individual level to fight it. Understanding its import now is crucial before it becomes an irrevocable mistake. Exterminating global warming is of utmost importance and each one of us is as responsible for it as the next.  

Always hear about global warming everywhere, but do we know what it is? The evil of the worst form, global warming is a phenomenon that can affect life more fatally. Global warming refers to the increase in the earth’s temperature as a result of various human activities. The planet is gradually getting hotter and threatening the existence of lifeforms on it. Despite being relentlessly studied and researched, global warming for the majority of the population remains an abstract concept of science. It is this concept that over the years has culminated in making global warming a stark reality and not a concept covered in books. Global warming is not caused by one sole reason that can be curbed. Multifarious factors cause global warming most of which are a part of an individual’s daily existence. Burning of fuels for cooking, in vehicles, and for other conventional uses, a large amount of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, and methane amongst many others is produced which accelerates global warming. Rampant deforestation also results in global warming as lesser green cover results in an increased presence of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere which is a greenhouse gas.  Finding a solution to global warming is of immediate importance. Global warming is a phenomenon that has to be fought unitedly. Planting more trees can be the first step that can be taken toward warding off the severe consequences of global warming. Increasing the green cover will result in regulating the carbon cycle. There should be a shift from using nonrenewable energy to renewable energy such as wind or solar energy which causes less pollution and thereby hinder the acceleration of global warming. Reducing energy needs at an individual level and not wasting energy in any form is the most important step to be taken against global warming. The warning bells are tolling to awaken us from the deep slumber of complacency we have slipped into. Humans can fight against nature and it is high time we acknowledged that. With all our scientific progress and technological inventions, fighting off the negative effects of global warming is implausible. We have to remember that we do not inherit the earth from our ancestors but borrow it from our future generations and the responsibility lies on our shoulders to bequeath them a healthy planet for life to exist. 

Also Read: Essay on Disaster Management

Global Warming and Climate Change are two sides of the same coin. Both are interrelated with each other and are two issues of major concern worldwide. Greenhouse gases released such as carbon dioxide, CFCs, and other pollutants in the earth’s atmosphere cause Global Warming which leads to climate change. Black holes have started to form in the ozone layer that protects the earth from harmful ultraviolet rays. 

Human activities have created climate change and global warming. Industrial waste and fumes are the major contributors to global warming. 

Another factor affecting is the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation and also one of the reasons for climate change.  Global warming has resulted in shrinking mountain glaciers in Antarctica, Greenland, and the Arctic and causing climate change. Switching from the use of fossil fuels to energy sources like wind and solar. 

When buying any electronic appliance buy the best quality with energy savings stars. Don’t waste water and encourage rainwater harvesting in your community. 

Writing an effective essay needs skills that few people possess and even fewer know how to implement. While writing an essay can be an assiduous task that can be unnerving at times, some key pointers can be inculcated to draft a successful essay. These involve focusing on the structure of the essay, planning it out well, and emphasizing crucial details.

Mentioned below are some pointers that can help you write better structure and more thoughtful essays that will get across to your readers:

• Prepare an outline for the essay to ensure continuity and relevance and no break in the structure of the essay
• Decide on a thesis statement that will form the basis of your essay. It will be the point of your essay and help readers understand your contention
• Follow the structure of an introduction, a detailed body followed by a conclusion so that the readers can comprehend the essay in a particular manner without any dissonance.
• Make your beginning catchy and include solutions in your conclusion to make the essay insightful and lucrative to read
• Reread before putting it out and add your flair to the essay to make it more personal and thereby unique and intriguing for readers 

Ans. Both natural and man-made factors contribute to global warming. The natural one also contains methane gas, volcanic eruptions, and greenhouse gases. Deforestation, mining, livestock raising, burning fossil fuels, and other man-made causes are next.

Ans. The government and the general public can work together to stop global warming. Trees must be planted more often, and deforestation must be prohibited. Auto usage needs to be curbed, and recycling needs to be promoted.

Ans. Switching to renewable energy sources , adopting sustainable farming, transportation, and energy methods, and conserving water and other natural resources.

Ans: Global Warming: A Critical Challenge Global warming is a significant environmental issue caused primarily by the rising levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere, largely due to human activities such as deforestation, the burning of fossil fuels and industrial processes. Over the past few decades, the average global temperature has increased by approximately 1.5 degrees Celsius, resulting in severe consequences for ecosystems and weather patterns worldwide. To combat global warming, immediate action is necessary. One effective strategy is to halt deforestation and promote afforestation. Planting trees in our communities can make a substantial difference, as trees absorb carbon dioxide and provide essential oxygen. Individuals can contribute by participating in local tree-planting initiatives and raising awareness about the importance of a healthy environment. While we cannot reverse the damage already done, we have the power to prevent further harm and protect our planet for future generations.

Ans: Global Warming: An Urgent Concern Global warming is a critical issue characterized by the gradual increase in Earth’s average temperature due to human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide. These emissions primarily stem from activities like burning fossil fuels, industrial production, and deforestation. As a result, we are witnessing alarming effects, including melting ice caps, rising sea levels, and extreme weather events. To address global warming, urgent action is required. Transitioning to renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, can significantly reduce carbon emissions. Additionally, promoting energy efficiency in our daily lives can contribute to this effort. By raising awareness and fostering community initiatives, we can encourage sustainable practices that protect our planet. Collective action today can pave the way for a healthier environment for future generations.

Ans: Global warming means the long-term increase in Earth’s average temperature. This rise is mainly caused by human activities that release greenhouse gases, like carbon dioxide and methane, into the atmosphere. Key sources of these emissions include burning fossil fuels for energy, cutting down forests, and industrial processes. As a result, we are seeing serious problems like rising sea levels, more extreme weather events, and harm to wildlife. The effects of global warming are already noticeable. Many places face droughts, floods, and heatwaves. To tackle this urgent issue, we need a variety of solutions. Switching to renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power can significantly lower emissions. Additionally, using energy more efficiently, planting trees, and practicing sustainable farming can help too. By increasing awareness and working together, we can fight against global warming and build a healthier world for future generations.

Relevant Blogs

For more information on such interesting topics, visit our essay writing page and follow Leverage Edu.

Digvijay Singh

Having 2+ years of experience in educational content writing, withholding a Bachelor's in Physical Education and Sports Science and a strong interest in writing educational content for students enrolled in domestic and foreign study abroad programmes. I believe in offering a distinct viewpoint to the table, to help students deal with the complexities of both domestic and foreign educational systems. Through engaging storytelling and insightful analysis, I aim to inspire my readers to embark on their educational journeys, whether abroad or at home, and to make the most of every learning opportunity that comes their way.

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment.

Contact no. *

This was really a good essay on global warming… There has been used many unic words..and I really liked it!!!Seriously I had been looking for a essay about Global warming just like this…

Thank you for the comment!

I want to learn how to write essay writing so I joined this page.This page is very useful for everyone.

Hi, we are glad that we could help you to write essays. We have a beginner’s guide to write essays ( https://leverageedu.com/blog/essay-writing/ ) and we think this might help you.

It is not good , to have global warming in our earth .So we all have to afforestation program on all the world.

thank you so much

Very educative , helpful and it is really going to strength my English knowledge to structure my essay in future

Thank you for the comment, please follow our newsletter to get more insights on studying abroad and exams!

Global warming is the increase in 𝓽𝓱𝓮 ᴀᴠᴇʀᴀɢᴇ ᴛᴇᴍᴘᴇʀᴀᴛᴜʀᴇs ᴏғ ᴇᴀʀᴛʜ🌎 ᴀᴛᴍᴏsᴘʜᴇʀᴇ

Leaving already?

8 Universities with higher ROI than IITs and IIMs

Grab this one-time opportunity to download this ebook

Connect With Us

45,000+ students realised their study abroad dream with us. take the first step today..

Resend OTP in

Need help with?

Study abroad.

UK, Canada, US & More

IELTS, GRE, GMAT & More

Scholarship, Loans & Forex

Country Preference

New Zealand

Which English test are you planning to take?

Which academic test are you planning to take.

Not Sure yet

When are you planning to take the exam?

Already booked my exam slot

Within 2 Months

Want to learn about the test

Which Degree do you wish to pursue?

When do you want to start studying abroad.

January 2025

September 2025

What is your budget to study abroad?

How would you describe this article ?

Please rate this article

We would like to hear more.

• CBSE Class 10th
• CBSE Class 12th
• UP Board 10th
• UP Board 12th
• Bihar Board 10th
• Bihar Board 12th

Top Schools

• Top Schools in India
• Top Schools in Delhi
• Top Schools in Mumbai
• Top Schools in Chennai
• Top Schools in Hyderabad
• Top Schools in Kolkata
• Top Schools in Pune
• Top Schools in Bangalore

Products & Resources

• JEE Main Knockout April
• Free Sample Papers
• Free Ebooks
• NCERT Notes
• NCERT Syllabus
• NCERT Books
• RD Sharma Solutions
• Navodaya Vidyalaya Admission 2024-25
• NCERT Solutions
• NCERT Solutions for Class 12
• NCERT Solutions for Class 11
• NCERT solutions for Class 10
• NCERT solutions for Class 9
• NCERT solutions for Class 8
• NCERT Solutions for Class 7
• JEE Main Exam
• JEE Advanced Exam
• BITSAT Exam
• View All Engineering Exams
• Colleges Accepting B.Tech Applications
• Top Engineering Colleges in India
• Engineering Colleges in India
• Engineering Colleges in Tamil Nadu
• Engineering Colleges Accepting JEE Main
• Top IITs in India
• Top NITs in India
• Top IIITs in India
• JEE Main College Predictor
• JEE Main Rank Predictor
• MHT CET College Predictor
• AP EAMCET College Predictor
• GATE College Predictor
• KCET College Predictor
• JEE Advanced College Predictor
• View All College Predictors
• JEE Advanced Cutoff
• JEE Main Cutoff
• GATE Registration 2025
• JEE Main Syllabus 2025
• Download E-Books and Sample Papers
• Compare Colleges
• B.Tech College Applications
• JEE Main Question Papers
• View All Management Exams

Colleges & Courses

• Top MBA Colleges in India
• MBA College Admissions
• MBA Colleges in India
• Top IIMs Colleges in India
• Top Online MBA Colleges in India
• MBA Colleges Accepting XAT Score
• BBA Colleges in India
• XAT College Predictor 2025
• SNAP College Predictor
• NMAT College Predictor
• MAT College Predictor 2024
• CMAT College Predictor 2025
• CAT Percentile Predictor 2024
• CAT 2024 College Predictor
• Top MBA Entrance Exams 2024
• NMAT Registration
• GD Topics for MBA
• CAT 2024 Admit Card
• Download Helpful Ebooks
• List of Popular Branches
• QnA - Get answers to your doubts
• IIM Fees Structure
• AIIMS Nursing
• Top Medical Colleges in India
• Top Medical Colleges in India accepting NEET Score
• Medical Colleges accepting NEET
• List of Medical Colleges in India
• List of AIIMS Colleges In India
• Medical Colleges in Maharashtra
• Medical Colleges in India Accepting NEET PG
• NEET College Predictor
• NEET PG College Predictor
• NEET MDS College Predictor
• NEET Rank Predictor
• DNB PDCET College Predictor
• NEET Syllabus 2025
• NEET Study Material 2024
• NEET Cut off
• NEET Exam Date 2025
• Download Helpful E-books
• Colleges Accepting Admissions
• Top Law Colleges in India
• Law College Accepting CLAT Score
• List of Law Colleges in India
• Top Law Colleges in Delhi
• Top NLUs Colleges in India
• Top Law Colleges in Chandigarh
• Top Law Collages in Lucknow

Predictors & E-Books

• CLAT College Predictor
• MHCET Law ( 5 Year L.L.B) College Predictor
• AILET College Predictor
• Sample Papers
• Compare Law Collages
• Careers360 Youtube Channel
• CLAT Syllabus 2025
• Free CLAT Practice Test
• NID DAT Exam
• Pearl Academy Exam

Predictors & Articles

• NIFT College Predictor
• UCEED College Predictor
• NID DAT College Predictor
• NID DAT 2025
• NID DAT Syllabus 2025
• Design Colleges in India
• Top NIFT Colleges in India
• Fashion Design Colleges in India
• Top Interior Design Colleges in India
• Top Graphic Designing Colleges in India
• Fashion Design Colleges in Delhi
• Fashion Design Colleges in Mumbai
• Top Interior Design Colleges in Bangalore
• NIFT Cutoff
• NIFT Fees Structure
• NIFT Syllabus 2025
• Free Design E-books
• List of Branches
• Careers360 Youtube channel
• IPU CET BJMC 2024
• JMI Mass Communication Entrance Exam 2024
• IIMC Entrance Exam 2024
• MICAT Exam 2025
• Media & Journalism colleges in Delhi
• Media & Journalism colleges in Bangalore
• Media & Journalism colleges in Mumbai
• List of Media & Journalism Colleges in India
• CA Intermediate
• CA Foundation
• CS Executive
• CS Professional
• Difference between CA and CS
• Difference between CA and CMA
• CA Full form
• CMA Full form
• CS Full form
• CA Salary In India

Top Courses & Careers

• Bachelor of Commerce (B.Com)
• Master of Commerce (M.Com)
• Company Secretary
• Cost Accountant
• Charted Accountant
• Credit Manager
• Financial Advisor
• Top Commerce Colleges in India
• Top Government Commerce Colleges in India
• Top Private Commerce Colleges in India
• Top M.Com Colleges in Mumbai
• Top B.Com Colleges in India
• IT Colleges in Tamil Nadu
• IT Colleges in Uttar Pradesh
• MCA Colleges in India
• BCA Colleges in India

Quick Links

• Information Technology Courses
• Programming Courses
• Web Development Courses
• Data Analytics Courses
• Big Data Analytics Courses
• RUHS Pharmacy Admission Test
• Top Pharmacy Colleges in India
• Pharmacy Colleges in Pune
• Pharmacy Colleges in Mumbai
• Colleges Accepting GPAT Score
• Pharmacy Colleges in Lucknow
• List of Pharmacy Colleges in Nagpur
• GPAT Result
• GPAT 2024 Admit Card
• GPAT Question Papers
• NCHMCT JEE 2024
• Mah BHMCT CET
• Top Hotel Management Colleges in Delhi
• Top Hotel Management Colleges in Hyderabad
• Top Hotel Management Colleges in Mumbai
• Top Hotel Management Colleges in Tamil Nadu
• Top Hotel Management Colleges in Maharashtra
• B.Sc Hotel Management
• Hotel Management
• Diploma in Hotel Management and Catering Technology

Diploma Colleges

• Top Diploma Colleges in Maharashtra
• UPSC IAS 2024
• SSC CGL 2024
• IBPS RRB 2024
• Previous Year Sample Papers
• Free Competition E-books
• Sarkari Result
• QnA- Get your doubts answered
• UPSC Previous Year Sample Papers
• CTET Previous Year Sample Papers
• SBI Clerk Previous Year Sample Papers
• NDA Previous Year Sample Papers

Upcoming Events

• NDA 2 Admit card 2024
• SSC CGL Admit card 2024
• CDS 2 Admit card 2024
• UGC NET Admit card 2024
• HP TET Result 2024
• SSC CHSL Result 2024
• UPTET Notification 2024
• SBI PO Notification 2024

Other Exams

• SSC CHSL 2024
• UP PCS 2024
• UGC NET 2024
• RRB NTPC 2024
• IBPS PO 2024
• IBPS Clerk 2024
• IBPS SO 2024
• Top University in USA
• Top University in Canada
• Top University in Ireland
• Top Universities in UK
• Top Universities in Australia
• Best MBA Colleges in Abroad
• Business Management Studies Colleges

Top Countries

• Study in USA
• Study in UK
• Study in Canada
• Study in Australia
• Study in Ireland
• Study in Germany
• Study in China
• Study in Europe

Student Visas

• Student Visa Canada
• Student Visa UK
• Student Visa USA
• Student Visa Australia
• Student Visa Germany
• Student Visa New Zealand
• Student Visa Ireland
• CUET PG 2025
• UP B.Ed JEE 2024
• TS EDCET Exam
• IIT JAM 2025
• AP PGCET Exam
• Universities in India
• Top Universities in India 2024
• Top Colleges in India
• Top Universities in Uttar Pradesh 2024
• Top Universities in Bihar
• Top Universities in Madhya Pradesh 2024
• Top Universities in Tamil Nadu 2024
• Central Universities in India
• CUET DU Cut off 2024
• IGNOU Date Sheet 2024
• CUET DU CSAS Portal 2024
• CUET 2025 Syllabus
• CUET PG Syllabus 2025
• CUET Participating Universities 2025
• CUET Previous Year Question Paper
• IGNOU Result 2024
• E-Books and Sample Papers
• CUET College Predictor 2024
• CUET Exam Date 2025
• CUET Cut Off 2024
• NIRF Ranking 2024
• IGNOU Exam Form 2024
• CUET Syllabus
• CUET Counselling 2025

Engineering Preparation

• Knockout JEE Main 2024
• Test Series JEE Main 2024
• JEE Main 2024 Rank Booster

Medical Preparation

• Knockout NEET 2024
• Test Series NEET 2024
• Rank Booster NEET 2024

Online Courses

• JEE Main One Month Course
• NEET One Month Course
• IBSAT Free Mock Tests
• IIT JEE Foundation Course
• Knockout BITSAT 2024
• Career Guidance Tool

Top Streams

• IT & Software Certification Courses
• Engineering and Architecture Certification Courses
• Programming And Development Certification Courses
• Business and Management Certification Courses
• Marketing Certification Courses
• Health and Fitness Certification Courses
• Design Certification Courses

Specializations

• Digital Marketing Certification Courses
• Cyber Security Certification Courses
• Artificial Intelligence Certification Courses
• Business Analytics Certification Courses
• Data Science Certification Courses
• Cloud Computing Certification Courses
• Machine Learning Certification Courses
• View All Certification Courses
• UG Degree Courses
• PG Degree Courses
• Short Term Courses
• Free Courses
• Online Degrees and Diplomas
• Compare Courses

Top Providers

• Coursera Courses
• Udemy Courses
• Edx Courses
• Swayam Courses
• upGrad Courses
• Simplilearn Courses
• Great Learning Courses

Effects of Global Warming Essay

The term "global warming" describes the rise in global temperatures primarily brought on by an increase in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases.

Environmental changes brought on by global warming may have a negative influence on human health. Here are a few essays on the topic ‘global warming’.

100 Words Essay On Global Warming

Global warming is an environmental issue that has been discussed for decades and is now becoming more serious than ever before. Global warming is caused by the increase of greenhouse gas emissions. Greenhouse gases are released when fossil fuels such as oil and coal are burned. These gases accumulate in the atmosphere, trapping heat and increasing the Earth's temperature. This process is known as the greenhouse effect, and it is causing higher temperatures, rising sea levels, and weather extremes. The effects of global warming on the environment have been devastating and they’re posing a huge threat to life on Earth.

200 Words Essay On Global Warming

Global warming is one of the greatest threats facing our planet today. The average temperature of the planet is rising as a result of global warming, which is caused by an increase in greenhouse gases. Carbon dioxide, methane, and ozone are examples of greenhouse gases that trap solar energy. Higher temperatures have caused glaciers to melt and sea levels to rise. This has caused increased flooding, drought, and extreme weather events. In addition, global warming has also caused a loss of biodiversity, as some species are unable to adapt to the changing climate.

Global warming has become an increasingly important environmental issue in recent years. The effects of global warming are far-reaching and can be seen in many different ways. We must take action now to reduce the causes, mitigate the impacts, and protect the environment for future generations. By taking smart steps to reduce emissions and invest in clean energy, we can create a better future for our planet. Governments must enact policies to reduce emissions from industries and transportation. They can also invest in clean energy sources such as solar and wind. Individuals can help by reducing their carbon footprint by driving less, eating local foods, and conserving energy.

500 Words Essay On Global Warming

Global warming happens when carbon dioxide (CO2) and other air pollutants accumulate in the atmosphere and absorb sunlight and solar energy that has bounced off the earth's surface. Normally, this radiation would escape into space, but because of the pollutants, which can linger in the atmosphere, the earth becomes hotter. The greenhouse effect is the result of these heat-trapping pollutants, which are known as greenhouse gases. These pollutants include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, water vapour, and synthetic fluorinated gases.

Causes Of Global Warming

Although the earth's temperature has changed multiple times over the past years due to natural cycles and changes, our current era of global warming is directly related to human activity, specifically to our combustion of fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas. The primary cause of global warming is the emission of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, into the atmosphere. These gases trap heat in the atmosphere, causing the earth’s temperature to rise. As temperatures increase, extreme weather events become more frequent, such as floods, droughts, and heat waves.

Effects Of Global Warming

The effects of global warming are already being experienced in many parts of the world. For example, rising sea levels due to melting ice caps have caused coastal flooding in many parts of the world, and extreme weather events have caused destruction and displacement of millions of people. Additionally, global warming has caused an increase in the number of pests and diseases, as well as an increase in ocean acidification.

Wildfire danger will continue to rise as a result of melting glaciers, early snowmelt, and severe droughts.

More coastal flooding will result from rising sea levels. Cities, farms, and forests will see more bothersome bugs, heat waves, torrential downpours, and flooding. Agriculture and fisheries may be harmed or destroyed by all of these.

Many plant and animal species may go extinct if environments like coral reefs and alpine meadows are damaged.

Rising pollen-producing ragweed growth, increased levels of air pollution, and the expansion of conditions that are conducive to pathogens and mosquitoes will all lead to an increase in the frequency of allergic reactions, asthma attacks, and infectious disease epidemics.

What Can We Do

It is clear that global warming is having a serious effect on our planet. Fortunately, there are a number of ways to reduce the impact of global warming. One way is to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases that are emitted into the atmosphere. This can be done by increasing energy efficiency and using renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power. Additionally, individuals can reduce their carbon footprint by using public transportation, reducing meat consumption, and using energy-efficient appliances. Look for a car with the best gas mileage and the fewest pollutants when you go car shopping. Whenever possible, use public transportation or carpool to lessen your emissions.

Global warming is a serious environmental issue that has far-reaching effects on our planet. Although the causes and effects of global warming can seem overwhelming, there are steps that can be taken to reduce its impact. By increasing energy efficiency, using renewable energy sources, and reducing one's carbon footprint, individuals can make a difference in combating global warming. With collective efforts, we can limit the effects of global warming and ensure a healthy environment for future generations.

Applications for Admissions are open.

VMC VIQ Scholarship Test

Register for Vidyamandir Intellect Quest. Get Scholarship and Cash Rewards.

JEE Main Important Physics formulas

As per latest 2024 syllabus. Physics formulas, equations, & laws of class 11 & 12th chapters

JEE Main Important Chemistry formulas

As per latest 2024 syllabus. Chemistry formulas, equations, & laws of class 11 & 12th chapters

TOEFL ® Registrations 2024

Accepted by more than 11,000 universities in over 150 countries worldwide

Pearson | PTE

Register now for PTE & Unlock 20% OFF : Use promo code: 'C360SPL20'. Valid till 15th NOV'24! Trusted by 3,500+ universities globally

JEE Main high scoring chapters and topics

As per latest 2024 syllabus. Study 40% syllabus and score upto 100% marks in JEE

Download Careers360 App's

Regular exam updates, QnA, Predictors, College Applications & E-books now on your Mobile

Certifications

We Appeared in

Please note NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information were affected by Hurricane Helene in late September. Products and services are now available, but many data products are still being updated. We are sorry for any inconvenience. Read more

What evidence exists that Earth is warming and that humans are the main cause?

We know the world is warming because people have been recording daily high and low temperatures at thousands of weather stations worldwide, over land and ocean, for many decades and, in some locations, for more than a century. When different teams of climate scientists in different agencies (e.g., NOAA and NASA) and in other countries (e.g., the U.K.’s Hadley Centre) average these data together, they all find essentially the same result: Earth’s average surface temperature has risen by about 1.8°F (1.0°C) since 1880. 

( bar chart ) Yearly temperature compared to the twentieth-century average from 1850–2023. Red bars mean warmer-than-average years; blue bars mean colder-than-average years. (line graph) Atmospheric carbon dioxide amounts: 1850-1958 from IAC , 1959-2023 from NOAA Global Monitoring Lab . NOAA Climate.gov graph, adapted from original by Dr. Howard Diamond (NOAA ARL).

In addition to our surface station data, we have many different lines of evidence that Earth is warming ( learn more ). Birds are migrating earlier, and their migration patterns are changing.  Lobsters  and  other marine species  are moving north. Plants are blooming earlier in the spring. Mountain glaciers are melting worldwide, and snow cover is declining in the Northern Hemisphere (Learn more  here  and  here ). Greenland’s ice sheet—which holds about 8 percent of Earth’s fresh water—is melting at an accelerating rate ( learn more ). Mean global sea level is rising ( learn more ). Arctic sea ice is declining rapidly in both thickness and extent ( learn more ).

The Greenland Ice Sheet lost mass again in 2020, but not as much as it did 2019. Adapted from the 2020 Arctic Report Card, this graph tracks Greenland mass loss measured by NASA's GRACE satellite missions since 2002. The background photo shows a glacier calving front in western Greenland, captured from an airplane during a NASA Operation IceBridge field campaign. Full story.

We know this warming is largely caused by human activities because the key role that carbon dioxide plays in maintaining Earth’s natural greenhouse effect has been understood since the mid-1800s. Unless it is offset by some equally large cooling influence, more atmospheric carbon dioxide will lead to warmer surface temperatures. Since 1800, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere  has increased  from about 280 parts per million to 410 ppm in 2019. We know from both its rapid increase and its isotopic “fingerprint” that the source of this new carbon dioxide is fossil fuels, and not natural sources like forest fires, volcanoes, or outgassing from the ocean.

Philip James de Loutherbourg's 1801 painting, Coalbrookdale by Night , came to symbolize the start of the Industrial Revolution, when humans began to harness the power of fossil fuels—and to contribute significantly to Earth's atmospheric greenhouse gas composition. Image from Wikipedia .

Finally, no other known climate influences have changed enough to account for the observed warming trend. Taken together, these and other lines of evidence point squarely to human activities as the cause of recent global warming.

USGCRP (2017). Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume 1 [Wuebbles, D.J., D.W. Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, D.J. Dokken, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 470 pp, doi:  10.7930/J0J964J6 .

National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants Climate Adaptation Partnership (2012):  National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy . Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies, Council on Environmental Quality, Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Washington, D.C. DOI: 10.3996/082012-FWSReport-1

IPCC (2019). Summary for Policymakers. In: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, M. Tignor, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama, N.M. Weyer (eds.)]. In press.

NASA JPL: "Consensus: 97% of climate scientists agree."  Global Climate Change . A website at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus). (Accessed July 2013.)

We value your feedback

Help us improve our content

Related Content

News & features, 2017 state of the climate: mountain glaciers, warming waters shift fish communities northward in the arctic, climate & fish sticks, maps & data, past climate, future climate, ocean - oceanic climate variables, teaching climate, toolbox for teaching climate & energy, student climate & conservation congress (sc3), climate youth engagement, climate resilience toolkit, arctic oceans, sea ice, and coasts, alaska and the arctic, food safety and nutrition.

Quick links

• Climate change
• COVID-19 research
• Staff profiles

How has climate changed in the past?

There is a great deal of evidence that the Earth's climate has warmed over the past century, with recent years the warmest on record.

Earth's climate has warmed

Both natural and human influences have affected climate over the past century, but it is extremely likely that human activities have been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.

The evidence that climate has changed over the past century includes temperature observations from around the world at the surface and from satellites, over land and sea. In addition, measurements of rainfall, sea levels, and ocean acidity and salinity show identify large scale changes.

Over time, these measurements give us a picture of how climate has changed, both in Australia and globally.

Global changes

Globally averaged air temperature at the Earth’s surface has warmed by 1.1 °C since reliable records began in 1850.

There is no record of temperature having increased as rapidly as it has over the past century.

Most of the hottest years on record have occurred in the 21st century. Worldwide, every year from 2013 onwards has been among the 10 warmest on record: 2016 and 2019 were the warmest years on record, followed by 2020, 2015, 2017 and 2018.

The heat content of the world's oceans has increased during recent decades and accounts for more than 90 per cent of the total heat accumulated by the land, air and ocean since the 1970s.

On a global scale, the ocean warming is largest near the surface, and the upper 75 m warmed by between 0.09°C and 0.13°C per decade over the period 1971–2010.

As well as temperatures increasing, global average sea levels have risen by around 25 cm since 1880, and there have been large-scale changes to climate, seasonal patterns such as the monsoon, and to the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events.

Changes in Australia

In Australia, land surface temperatures have been recorded at many sites since the mid to late 19th century.

By 1910, Australia had a reliable and standardised network of thermometers. The data they produced have been extensively analysed by the Bureau of Meteorology and scientists at CSIRO, Australian universities and international research institutions.

These high-quality temperature observations reveal that since 1910, Australia's climate has warmed by 1.44 °C (plus or minus 0.24 °C).

This long-term warming trend means that most years are now warmer than almost any year during the 20th century. Since the 1950s, each decade has been warmer than the one before.

We've also experienced an increase in record hot days and a decrease in record cold days across the country. For example, 2019 experienced 43 extremely warm days, more than triple the number in any of the years prior to 2000.

Some years have been relatively cool due to natural effects such as La Niña that partially offset the background warming trend, but overall the trend is clear and distinct: Australia has become warmer.

Rainfall has decreased by around 16 per cent in April to October in the southwest of Australia since 1970. In the southeast of Australia, there has been a decline of around 12 per cent in April to October rainfall since the late 1990s.

Rainfall has increased across most of northern Australia since the 1970s, with a general trend towards increased spring and summer monsoonal rainfall. There has been an increase in the intensity of heavy rainfall events in Australia.

Sea-surface temperatures around Australia have increased faster than the global average, warming by more than 1 °C since 1900, with 8 of the 10 warmest years on record occurring since 2010.

Useful links

• State of the Climate
• Climate Change in Australia
• Bureau of Meteorology Annual Climate Statement 2020

Find out how we can help you and your business. Get in touch using the form below and our experts will get in contact soon!

CSIRO will handle your personal information in accordance with the Privacy Act 1988 (Cth) and our Privacy Policy .

Enter a valid email address, for example [email protected]

A Country value must be provided

First name must be filled in

Surname must be filled in

Please choose an option

Organisation must be filled in

Please provide a subject for the enquriy

We'll need to know what you want to contact us about so we can give you an answer

We have received your enquiry and will reply soon.

We're Sorry

The contact form is currently unavailable. Please try again later. If this problem persists, please call us with your enquiry on 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176. We are available from 9.00 am to 4.00 pm AEST Monday - Friday.

Climate change is accelerating the rise in sea levels around the world—leaving some of the most vulnerable populations at risk as they are forced to live in marginal areas where flooding from high tides is increasing as seen here in Kiribati.

• ENVIRONMENT

Sea levels are rising at an extraordinary pace. Here's what to know.

Seas are predicted to rise a foot by 2050, regardless of how much global carbon emissions can be reduced. Why is this happening, and what can we do to adapt?

As humans continue to pour greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, oceans have tempered the effect. The world's seas have absorbed more than 90 percent of the heat from these gases, but it’s taking a toll on our oceans: 2021 set a new record for ocean heating.

Rising seas is one of those climate change effects . Average sea levels have swelled over 8 inches (about 23 cm) since 1880 , with about three of those inches gained in the last 25 years. Every year, the sea rises another .13 inches (3.2 mm.) Research published in February 2022 shows that sea level rise is accelerating and projected to rise by a foot by 2050.

That translates into as much sea level rise in the next 30 years as occurred over the last century, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration . Rick Spinrad, the NOAA administrator, called the findings “historic,” and warned that the projected rise will occur even if carbon emissions are drastically cut.  

( How carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases contribute to climate change .)

In the United States, the most vulnerable populations live on the East and Gulf Coasts, where damaging flooding is predicted to occur 10 times more often in 2050 than it does today. The acceleration of sea level rise along these coasts is "unprecedented in at least 120 years," according to a study published in April 2023 .  

Here's what you need to know about the causes—and consequences—of sea level rise.

Causes of sea level rise

The change in sea levels is linked to three primary factors, all induced by ongoing global climate change :

YEAR-LONG ADVENTURE for every explorer on your list

• Thermal expansion:   When water heats up, it expands. About half of the sea-level rise over the past 25 years is attributable to warmer oceans simply occupying more space.  
• Melting glaciers:   Large ice formations such as mountain glaciers naturally melt a bit each summer. In the winter, snows, primarily from evaporated seawater , are generally sufficient to balance out the melting. Recently, though, persistently higher temperatures caused by global warming have led to greater-than-average summer melting as well as diminished snowfall due to later winters and earlier springs. That creates an imbalance between runoff and ocean evaporation, causing sea levels to rise.
• Loss of Greenland and Antarctica’s ice sheets:   As with mountain glaciers, increased heat is causing the massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica to melt more quickly . Scientists also believe that meltwater from above and seawater from below is seeping beneath Greenland's ice sheets , effectively lubricating ice streams and causing them to move more quickly into the sea. While melting in West Antarctica has drawn considerable focus from scientists, especially with the 2017 break in the Larsen C ice shelf, glaciers in East Antarctica are also showing signs of destabilizing.

Consequences

When sea levels rise as rapidly as they have been, even a small increase can have devastating effects on coastal habitats farther inland, it can cause destructive erosion, wetland flooding, aquifer and agricultural soil contamination with salt, and lost habitat for fish, birds, and plants.

( Here's how warming oceans affects wildlife and storm systems .)

You May Also Like

What exactly is lab-grown meat? Here’s what you need to know.

Here’s what worries engineers the most about U.S. infrastructure

These tortoises are in jeopardy as good luck charms. Here's what we know.

Higher sea levels are coinciding with more dangerous hurricanes and typhoons that move more slowly and drop more rain, contributing to more powerful storm surges that can strip away everything in their path. One study found that between 1963 and 2012, almost half of all deaths from Atlantic hurricanes were caused by storm surges .

Already, flooding in low-lying coastal areas is forcing people to migrate to higher ground, and millions more are vulnerable from flood risk and other climate change effects. The prospect of higher coastal water levels threatens basic services such as Internet access , since much of the underlying communications infrastructure lies in the path of rising seas.

Adapting to the threat

As a result of these risks, many coastal cities are already planning adaptation measures to cope with the long-term prospects of higher sea levels, often at considerable cost. Building seawalls, rethinking roads , and planting mangroves or other vegetation to absorb water are all being undertaken.

In Jakarta, a $40 billion project will aim to protect the city with an 80-foot-high seawall. Rotterdam, home to the Global Center on Adaptation , has offered a model to other cities seeking to combat flooding and land loss. The Dutch city has built barriers, drainage, and innovative architectural features such as a “water square” with temporary ponds.

Of course, communities vulnerable to rising seas can only go so far in holding back the tide. In the Marshall Islands, where rising sea levels are forcing a choice between relocating or building up the land , residents will need help from other nations if they decide to undertake the expensive latter option.

How high will it go?

Most predictions say the warming of the planet will continue and is likely to accelerate, causing the oceans to keep rising. This means hundreds of coastal cities face flooding . But forecasting how much and how soon seas will rise remains an area of ongoing research.

A special report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says   we can expect the oceans to rise between 10 and 30 inches (26 to 77 centimeters) by 2100 with temperatures warming 1.5 °C. That’s enough to seriously affect many of the cities along the U.S. East Coast. Another analysis based on NASA and European data skewed toward the higher end of that range, predicting a rise of 26 inches (65 centimeters) by the end of this century if the current trajectory continues.

If all the ice that currently exists on Earth in glaciers and sheets melted it would raise sea level by 216 feet . That could cause entire states and even some countries to disappear under the waves, from Florida to Bangladesh. That’s not a scenario scientists think is likely, and it would probably take many centuries, but it could eventually happen if the world keeps burning fossil fuels indiscriminately.

In the meantime, scientists keep refining their models of sea-level changes. They also point out that the extent to which countries work together to limit release of more greenhouse gases may have a significant impact on how quickly seas rise, and how much.

Related Topics

• SEA LEVEL CHANGE
• CLIMATE CHANGE

Is tap water safe to drink? Here’s what you really need to know.

Can restoring mangroves protect Miami from rising seas?

Rising Seas

Interested in an electric car? Here's what you should know before you buy.

Rising seas threaten the Gullah Geechee culture. Here's how they're fighting back.

• Terms of Use
• Privacy Policy
• Your US State Privacy Rights
• Children's Online Privacy Policy
• Interest-Based Ads
• About Nielsen Measurement
• Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information
• Nat Geo Home
• Attend a Live Event
• Book a Trip
• Inspire Your Kids
• Shop Nat Geo
• Visit the D.C. Museum
• Learn About Our Impact
• Support Our Mission
• Advertise With Us
• Customer Service
• Renew Subscription
• Manage Your Subscription
• Work at Nat Geo
• Sign Up for Our Newsletters
• Contribute to Protect the Planet

Copyright © 1996-2015 National Geographic Society Copyright © 2015-2024 National Geographic Partners, LLC. All rights reserved

Talk to our experts

1800-120-456-456

• Essay on Effects of Global Warming

Introduction

Our world, as well as all living things such as animals, birds, insects, trees, and plants, were created by nature. They all have the right to live their lives as they see fit, but the human being is the most perplexing of all living creatures. For our own needs and greed, we humans are killing nature, and we will pay the price in the form of catastrophe. Here we have provided both long and short essays on the effects of Global Warming for students of Classes 1 to 12.

Long Effect of Global Warming Essay in English

As carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and other air pollution and greenhouse gases build up in the atmosphere, they absorb sunlight and solar radiation that has bounced off the earth's surface, resulting in global warming. Normally, this radiation will disperse into space, but these contaminants, which can remain in the atmosphere for years or decades, trap the heat and cause the earth to get hotter. The greenhouse effect is the result of this.

So, What causes Global Warming?

Natural Causes of Global Warming:

For decades, the world has been shifting. The natural rotation of the sun causes global warming by changing the strength of sunlight and bringing it closer to the earth.

Greenhouse emissions are another contributor to global warming. 

Carbon monoxide and sulphur dioxide are greenhouse gases that absorb solar heat rays and prevent them from escaping the earth's surface. The earth's temperature has increased as a result of this.

Another factor that contributes to global warming is volcanic eruptions. A single volcanic eruption, for example, can release a significant amount of carbon dioxide and ash into the atmosphere.

As carbon dioxide levels rise, the earth's temperature rises, and greenhouse gases absorb solar radiation.

Finally, methane is a contributor to global warming. Methane is a greenhouse gas as well. Methane is 20 times more effective than carbon dioxide at trapping heat in the atmosphere. Methane gas can usually be used in a variety of places. Cattle, landfills, natural gas, petroleum systems, coal mining, mobile explosions, and industrial waste processes are only a few examples.

Human Influences on Global Warming:

Humans are more responsible for global warming than natural causes. Because of modern human lifestyles, the earth has been evolving for many years and continues to do so. Industrial production, fossil fuel combustion, mining, cattle rearing, and deforestation are all examples of human activities.

The industrial revolution is the first thing. Industrial devices have been powered by fossil fuels. All we use is made up of fossil fuels. When we purchase a cell phone, for example, the process of manufacturing the phone involves machines, which use fossil fuels, and carbon dioxide is released into the environment during the process. Aside from industry, transportation, such as automobiles, emits carbon dioxide by the exhaust.

Mining is another problem. Methane would be trapped under the earth during the mining process. Furthermore, raising cattle results in the release of methane in the form of manure. Cattle, on the other hand, are noteworthy because they are equally responsible for the occurrence of global warming.

Then there's deforestation, which is by far the most common problem. Humans have been cutting down trees to manufacture documents, wood, build homes, and other things, so deforestation is a human factor.

Humans also emit carbon dioxide as they breathe. As a result, carbon dioxide has been released into the atmosphere by millions of people. If human deforestation continues, the carbon dioxide released by human breathing will remain in the atmosphere.

Effects of Global Warming

Every year, scientists learn more about the effects of global warming, and all agree that if current patterns continue, environmental, economic, and health impacts are likely. Here's a taste of what we can expect in the coming months:

Melting glaciers, early snowmelt, and extreme droughts would intensify water shortages in the American West, raising the risk of wildfires.

Coastal flooding will occur along the Eastern Seaboard, especially in Florida, as well as in other areas such as the Gulf of Mexico.

New pests will wreak havoc on forests, crops, and towns, as will heat waves, heavy rains, and increased flooding.

Many plant and animal species could become extinct if ecosystems such as coral reefs and Alpine meadows are disrupted.

Increased pollen-producing ragweed growth, higher levels of air pollution, and the spread of conditions favorable to pathogens and mosquitoes will make allergies, asthma, and infectious disease outbreaks more likely.

In the above effect of global warming essay in English, we have discussed in depth all the natural causes of global warming and how humans have contributed towards its drastic increase. Below we have provided short effects of the Global Warming essay for students of Classes 1 to 5.

Effect of Global Warming Short Essay

Since hundreds of years ago, greenhouse gases have remained in the atmosphere for several years. Global warming, on the other hand, would have disastrous consequences for the planet. If global warming persists, a slew of negative consequences will emerge. Melting polar ice caps, economic effects, warming oceans, and more storms, disease transmission, and earthquakes are all examples.

The melting of the polar ice caps is the first consequence. The ice at the North Pole will melt as the temperature increases. Since melting glaciers become seas, the first result of ice melting would be an increase in sea levels. “If the ice melted today, the seas will rise about 230 feet,” according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Many low-lying areas, such as the Netherlands, are affected. Once the North Pole melts, the Netherlands will be submerged in water. However, that will not happen easily, and the sea level will continue to rise.

Another impact is the loss of habitat for some species. Polar bears and tropical frogs would become extinct as a result of climate change. Furthermore, since animals are not like humans, different birds will migrate to other locations. They are unable to adjust to changes in their climate, such as temperature or living conditions.

The next result is that more hurricanes will occur, with economic implications. Houses are damaged by hurricanes, and the government will have to spend billions of dollars to repair the damage, and people will need places to stay or will be killed. When a disaster strikes, many people die and illnesses spread. Diseases are more serious because they can spread rapidly to other people, allowing more people to catch the disease. Diseases can also become more serious as the weather changes.

Importance of an Essay on Global Warming

The essay on global warming is important because it will help students to understand the effects of global warming and how it impacts life on earth. They will then be aware and likewise, share their knowledge with their fellow beings and make them conscious of the human actions that lead to an increase in global warming.

Climate change is an issue that humans are actually facing, and the ones causing these problems are humans. Although it is difficult to avoid global warming, people can indeed help to mitigate and slow its effects. If no action is taken to address this problem, people will perish as a result of cli mate change and natural disasters. Humans changed the world; now it's time for humans to change themselves.

FAQs on Essay on Effects of Global Warming

1. State Some Ways to Reduce Global Warming ?

We should reduce the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere to reduce global warming. 

We can minimise global warming by reducing our use of oil, electricity, and other practices that contribute to global warming. To save fuel, we should opt for a hybrid vehicle that uses less gasoline. 

Taking public transportation or carpooling to work has the potential to minimise carbon dioxide emissions while still saving money. 

Recycling is another way to help combat global warming. Reusing plastic bags, bottles, documents, or glass may help to minimise waste. 

Finally, open burning should be forbidden, such as the burning of dry leaves or garbage. When garbage is burned with plastic, carbon dioxide and toxic gases are released. Furthermore, since global temperatures are rising, the government should minimise deforestation. Trees will assist in the reduction of global warming.

2. Define Global Warming ?

Global warming is the long-term warming of Earth's climate system that has been observed since the pre-industrial era (between 1850 and 1900) as a result of human activities, mainly fossil fuel combustion, which raises heat-trapping greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere. The words are sometimes used interchangeably, though the latter applies to both human- and naturally-caused warming, as well as the implications for our world. The average rise in Earth's global surface temperature is the most common metric.

3. How to download the Essay on Effects of Global Warming from the Vedantu Website?

The Vedantu website provides a download of the Essay on Effects of Global Warming, which is accurate and well-structured. Vedantu's official website provides the Essay in PDF version which is available for download for free of cost. Students are advised to download the Essay on Global Warming from the Vedantu website to get an idea of the word limit, sentence construction, and basic understanding of what a good essay consists of. Vedantu essay is concise and apt for school-going, students. It uses simple language, perfect for students with limited vocabulary. Following the Vedantu essay enables students to be sufficiently prepared for any essay topics and guarantees that students will score good marks. To access the Essay on Plastic Ban, click on the link available above.

4. Why is plastic bad for the environment?

Nonrenewable resources such as coal, natural gas, and crude oil are used to make plastics. Because plastic bags take a long time to disintegrate, they have a substantial environmental impact. If toxic compounds are allowed to deteriorate, there is concern that they will leak into the environment. Rather than degrading completely, plastic dissolves into smaller chunks and microscopic particles known as microplastics. Microplastics regularly end up in bodies of water, endangering animals. Furthermore, dangerous chemicals are released into the soil when plastic bags degrade in the sun, and harmful substances are released into the air when plastic bags are burnt, resulting in air pollution. All of these reasons make plastic one of the most harmful materials on the earth for all of these reasons. Plastic is one of the main reasons for Global Warming and thus needs to be eliminated from the world.

5. Is writing an essay hard?

Essay writing is a difficult task that needs a great deal of study, time, and focus. It's also an assignment that you can divide down into manageable chunks such as introduction, main content, and conclusion. Breaking down and focusing on each individually makes essay writing more pleasant. It's natural for students to be concerned about writing an essay. It's one of the most difficult tasks to do, especially for people who aren't confident in their writing abilities. While writing a decent essay is difficult, the secret to being proficient at it is reading a lot of books, conducting extensive research on essential topics, and practicing essay writing diligently.

6. Who prepares the essay on global warming for Vedantu?

The Essay on Effects on Global, designed by Vedantu, is created by a group of experts and experienced teachers. The panel of experts have created the essay after analyzing important essay topics that have been repeatedly asked in various examinations. The Essays that are provided by Vedantu are not only well-structured but also accurate and concise. They are aptly suited for young students with limited vocabulary. For best results, the students are advised to go through multiple essays and practice the topics on their own to inculcate the habits of time management and speed.

7. What will be the impact on the phenomena of Global Warming if we ban plastic and petroleum products?

Plastic and petroleum product bans can undoubtedly aid in the conservation of non-renewable resources that, once gone, may not be recovered. Plastic use has two significant negative consequences: it emits carbon dioxide, which contributes to the greenhouse effect, and it increases rubbish collecting in landfills and seas. Bans should be implemented since they are successful in eliminating large amounts of plastic trash. Plastic can be eliminated; but, it will need advances in engineering and applied science, and the capability to do so currently exists. With each passing year, humanity's reliance on plastic gets greater. Thus, one of the only ways to eliminate or reduce global warming is through the elimination of the use of plastic and petroleum products.

• Summary Statement
• Statistical relationships between SSTs and hurricanes
• Analysis of century-scale Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane frequency
• Analysis of other observed Atlantic hurricane metrics
• Model simulations of greenhouse warming influence on Atlantic hurricanes
• Other possible human influences on Atlantic hurricane climate
• Summary for Atlantic Hurricanes and Global Warming
• Global Tropical Cyclone Activity and Climate Warming
• Recent Relevant GFDL Papers and Animations
• WMO Task Team onTropical Cyclones and Climate Change
• Early GFDL Research on Global Warming and Hurricanes
• Related links

Global Warming and Hurricanes

An Overview of Current Research Results

This site authored and maintained by:  Tom Knutson , Senior Scientist, NOAA/GFDL

Any views expressed here are the author’s and do not represent official views of NOAA or the U.S. government.  A State of the Science Fact Sheet, reviewed and vetted by NOAA, is found here .

Last Revised:  Oct. 9, 2024

Recent Assessments of Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change:

• NOAA State of Science Fact Sheet on “Atlantic Hurricanes and Climate Change” (May 2023).
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group I ,  (2021)
• ScienceBrief Review on Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change ,  (2021).
• “Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment. Part I:  Detection and Attribution”
• “Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part II. Projected Response to Anthropogenic Warming”

1. Summary Statement

Two frequently asked questions on global warming and hurricanes are the following:

• What changes in hurricane activity are expected for the late 21st century, given the pronounced global warming scenarios from IPCC models?
• Have humans already caused a detectable increase in Atlantic hurricane activity or global tropical cyclone activity?

The IPCC AR6 presents a strong body of scientific evidence that it is unequivocal that humans have caused the earth’s climate to warm, with a likely human contribution of 0.8 to 1.3 degrees Celsius to global mean temperature since the late 1800s.   But what does this anthropogenic global warming mean for Atlantic hurricane activity, or global tropical cyclone activity? Here, we address these questions, starting with those conclusions where we have relatively more confidence. The main text of this web page gives more background discussion. “ Detectable ” change here will refer to a change that is large enough to be clearly distinguishable from the variability due to natural causes. Our main conclusions are:

Likelihood Statements

The terminology here for likelihood statements follows these conventions for the assessed likelihood of an outcome or result:

• Very Likely: > 90%,
• Likely: > 66%
• More Likely Than Not (or Better Than Even Odds) > 50%
• Sea level rise – which human activity has very likely been the main driver of since at least 1971 according to IPCC AR6 – should be causing higher coastal inundation levels for tropical cyclones that do occur, all else assumed equal.
• Tropical cyclone rainfall rates are projected to increase in the future ( medium to high confidence ) due to anthropogenic warming and accompanying increase in atmospheric moisture content. Modeling studies on average project an increase by about 14% (+6 to +22%) globally for rainfall rates averaged within about 100 km of the storm for a 2 degree Celsius global warming scenario.
• Tropical cyclone intensities globally are projected to increase ( medium to high confidence ) on average (by 1 to 10% according to model projections for a 2 degree Celsius global warming). This change would imply an even larger percentage increase in the destructive potential per storm, assuming no reduction in storm size. Rapid intensification is also projected to increase. Storm size responses to anthropogenic warming are uncertain.
• The global proportion of tropical cyclones that reach very intense (Category 4 and 5) levels is projected to increase ( medium to high confidence ) due to anthropogenic warming over the 21st century. There is less confidence in future projections of the global number of Category 4 and 5 storms, since most modeling studies project a decrease (or little change) in the global frequency of all tropical cyclones combined.

For the above tropical cyclone projections, the IPCC AR6 generally concluded there was high confidence as compared to medium-to-high confidence in the WMO assessment .  Additional research was published between the reports, which can affect confidence levels.  Also, confidence levels for assessment statements can vary between authors within a given report .

• In the northwest Pacific basin, observations show a poleward shift in the latitude of maximum intensity of tropical cyclones.  This change is assessed to be detectable (i.e., not explainable by natural variability alone) with medium confidence by IPCC AR6 )  or low-to-medium confidence ( WMO Task Team report ).
• One study finds an increase in the fraction of tropical cyclone intensity estimates of at least Category 3 intensity both globally and in the Atlantic basin, over the past four decades.  These observed changes have not been confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing.  The global increase was assessed to be detectable (i.e., not explainable by natural variability alone) with medium confidence by IPCC AR6 .  The increase in proportion of Category 3-5 intensities was reported to be mostly due to a global decrease in the number of Category 1-5 intensity estimates, with a slight global increase in number of Category 3-5 intensity estimates.
• Analyses of rapid intensification of tropical cyclones indicate an observed increase in the probability of rapid intensification (1982-2017) in the Atlantic, NW Pacifc, and globally, which is highly unusual compared to one climate model’s simulation of internal multidecadal climate variability, and thus is a possibly emerging detectable anthropogenic change.  This change is assessed to be detectable (i.e., not explainable by natural variability alone) with medium confidence   by IPCC AR6 . The increase is consistent in sign with the model’s simulated long-term response to anthropogenic forcing .
• There is increasing evidence from modeling studies at GFDL/NOAA and the UK Met Office/Hadley Centre (UKMO) that the increase in tropical storm frequency in the Atlantic basin since the 1970s has been at least partly driven by decreases in aerosols from human activity and volcanic forcing.  Natural variability or changes in Saharan dust emissions may also have contributed to recent changes.  The recent GFDL and UKMO studies do not imply that the increase in Atlantic tropical storm frequency since the 1970s will continue into the future:   these same models project future decreases in Atlantic tropical storm frequency in response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.
• There is evidence for a slowing of tropical cyclone propagation speeds over the continental U.S. over the past century–which could lead to higher precipitation accumulations in a given location–but these observed changes have not yet been confidently linked to anthropogenic climate change.  This change is assessed to be detectable (i.e., not explainable by natural variability alone) with medium confidence by IPCC AR6.
• There is no strong evidence of century-scale increasing trends in U.S. landfalling hurricanes or major hurricanes.  Similarly for Atlantic basin-wide hurricane frequency (after adjusting for changing observing capabilities over time), there is not strong evidence for an increase since the late 1800s in hurricanes, major hurricanes, or the proportion of hurricanes that reach major hurricane intensity.
• According to the IPCC AR6 Summary for Policymakers , there is high confidence that anthropogenic climate change has increased extreme tropical cyclone rainfall , based on available event attribution studies and physical understanding.  However, they note that clear detection of past trends at the global scale in this metric is inhibited due to data limitations.    IPCC AR6 , in Chapter 11 of the above report, concludes that there is medium confidence , based on event attribution studies, that anthropogenic climate change has contributed to extreme rainfall in strong tropical cyclones.
• In summary, it is premature to conclude with high confidence that human-caused increases in greenhouse gases have caused a change in past Atlantic basin hurricane activity that is outside the range of natural variability, although greenhouse gases are strongly linked to global warming.  Some possible emerging human influences on past tropical cyclone activity were summarized above.  These include, for the Atlantic, recent increases in rapid intensification probability, aerosol-driven changes in hurricane activity, increases in extreme tropical cyclone precipitation in some regions, and a slowing of storm propagation speeds over the U.S.  A number of measures of Atlantic hurricane activity have increased since 1980, but in the of case of metrics where much longer records are available, trends since 1980 are not representative of longer (e.g., century-scale) trends.  Substantial multidecadal variability in the Atlantic basin confounds efforts to detect long-term greenhouse gas-induced trends.  At the global scale, increased intensities, rapid intensification, and fraction of tropical cyclone observations at high intensity are examples of possible emerging human influences, along with a poleward shift of the latitude of maximum tropical cyclone intensity in the Northwest Pacific basin.  Human activities may have already caused other changes in tropical cyclone activity, in the Atlantic or globally, that are not yet clearly apparent due to the small magnitude of these changes compared to natural variability, or due to observational limitations.

2. Global Warming and Atlantic Hurricanes

A. statistical relationships between ssts and hurricanes.

It is well known that hurricanes form over relatively warm sea surfaces, which has led to notions that global warming will greatly increase hurricane activity globally.  This has led to the use of  statistical analyses and models to study the relationships between Atlantic hurricanes and Atlantic sea surface temperatures.  Emanuel (2007) found a strong correlation, on multi-year time-scales, between local tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the Power Dissipation Index (PDI) for data through 2005— see an updated series — Fig. 3 of the EPA Climate Indicators site . PDI is an aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity, combining frequency, intensity, and duration of hurricanes. Both Atlantic SSTs and PDI have risen sharply since the 1970s, and there is some evidence that PDI levels in recent years are higher than in the previous active Atlantic hurricane era in the 1950s and 60s.

Climate change detection/attribution studies have linked increasing tropical Atlantic SSTs to increasing greenhouse gases, but such a link between increasing hurricane PDI or frequency and increasing greenhouse gases has not been established. Nonetheless, the statistical linkage of Atlantic hurricane PDI to Atlantic SST suggests at least the possibility of a large anthropogenic influence on Atlantic hurricanes. If this statistical relation between tropical Atlantic SSTs and hurricane activity is used to infer future changes in Atlantic hurricane activity, the implications are sobering: the large increases in tropical Atlantic SSTs projected for the late 21st century would imply very substantial increases in hurricane destructive potential–roughly a 300% increase in the PDI by 2100 (Figure 1 from Vecchi et al. (2008) , orange curve).

On the other hand, Swanson (2008) and others noted that Atlantic hurricane power dissipation is also well-correlated with other SST indices besides tropical Atlantic SST alone, and in particular with indices of Atlantic SST relative to tropical mean SST (e.g., Figure 1, blue curves). This is crucial distinction:   the statistical relationship between Atlantic hurricanes and local Atlantic SST shown in the upper panel of Figure 1 would imply very large increases in Atlantic hurricane activity (PDI) due to 21st century greenhouse warming.  However, the alternative statistical relationship between the PDI and the relative SST measure shown in the lower panel of Figure 1 would imply only modest future long-term trends of Atlantic hurricane activity (PDI). In the latter case, the relative SST measure (lower panel) does not change very much over the 21st century, even with substantial Atlantic warming projections from climate models, because, crucially, the warming projected for the tropical Atlantic in the models is not very different from that projected for the tropics as a whole .

The key questions then are: Which of the two future Atlantic hurricane scenarios inferred from the statistical relations in Figure 1 is more likely? Is absolute SST or relative SST the more appropriate predictor for greenhouse warming-induced change in Atlantic hurricanes?   To try to gain insight on these questions, we  will trace a series of studies that examine century-scale historical changes of Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane counts (Section 2B), and then we examine additional hurricane metrics, including several intensity-related metrics since the 1980s (Section 2C).  In Section 2D we review dynamical modeling studies of Atlantic hurricane activity under greenhouse warming conditions, and in Section 2E some other possible influences on Atlantic hurricanes (besides greenhouse warming). In Section 3, we go beyond the Atlantic to consider global tropical cyclone activity and global warming.

B. Analysis of century-scale Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane frequency

To gain more insight on the issue of Atlantic hurricanes and global warming, we have attempted to analyze much longer (> 100 yr) records of Atlantic tropical storm or hurricane activity. If greenhouse warming causes a substantial increase in Atlantic hurricane activity, then the observed century scale increase in tropical Atlantic SSTs since the late 1800s should have produced a long-term rise in measures of Atlantic hurricanes activity, similar to that seen for global temperature, for example.

Existing records of past Atlantic tropical storms (1878 to present) in fact do show a pronounced upward trend , which is also correlated with rising SSTs. However, the density of reporting ship traffic over the Atlantic was relatively sparse during the early decades of this record, such that if storms from the modern era (post 1965) had hypothetically occurred during those earlier decades, a substantial number of storms would likely not have been directly observed by the ship-based “observing network of opportunity.” We find that, after adjusting for such an estimated number of missing storms, there remains just a small nominally positive trend (not statistically significant) in tropical storm occurrence from 1878-2006 (Figure 2, from Vecchi and Knutson 2008 ).  Landsea et al. (2010) expanded on this work, noting that the rising trend in (unadjusted) Atlantic tropical storm counts is almost entirely due to increases in short-duration (<2 day) storms alone. Such short-lived storms were particularly likely to have been overlooked in the earlier parts of the record, as they would have had less opportunity for chance encounters with ship traffic.

This same general methodology has since been applied to Atlantic basin hurricanes (Vecchi and Knutson 2011 ) and major hurricanes (Vecchi et al. 2021) .  Atlantic basin hurricanes (Fig. 3, blue curve), show a weak rising trend since the late 1800s, but assuming there are no missing hurricanes in earlier years.  After adjusting for a likely under-count of hurricanes in the pre-satellite era (Fig. 3, red curve) there is essentially no long-term trend in hurricane counts.

The evidence for an upward trend is even weaker if we look at U.S. landfalling hurricanes, which even show a slight negative trend beginning from 1900 or from the late 1800s (Figure 3, orange curve). U.S. landfalling hurricane frequency is much less common than basin-wide frequency, meaning that the U.S. landfalling hurricane record, while more reliable than the basin-wide record, suffers from degraded signal-to-noise characteristics for assessing trends.  The U.S. landfalling hurricane series (which has no “missing” storm adjustments) is similar to the adjusted basin-wide Atlantic hurricane counts in terms of its lack of century-scale trend (Fig. 3). Emanuel (2021) found that U.S. landfalling tropical cyclone frequency and power dissipation–for storms whose lifetime maximum winds exceeded 21 m/sec–had a period of unusually high activity from around 2004 to 2010 compared to the record extending into the late 1800s. It is not known if this represents an early sign of a climate change signal toward greater future U.S landfalling tropical cyclone activity or not.

Concerning Atlantic basin-wide major (Category 3-5) hurricanes, Vecchi et al. (2021) conclude that their counts also show little evidence of a long-term increase (since the 1880s) after accounting for changes in observing system capabilities; they also show that U.S. landfalling major hurricanes (with no adjustment) have no significant increasing trend since the late 1800s.

Figure 4 (from Vecchi et al. 2021 ) suggests that after adjusting for changes in observing capabilities (limited ship observations) in the pre-satellite era, there is no significant long-term trend (since the 1880s) in the proportion of hurricanes that become major hurricanes.  The proportion of major hurricanes has increased in the Atlantic in recent decades (since 1980).  This illustrates the challenge of finding significant long-term trends in hurricane intensity-related metrics if one extends the record back prior to the 1980s (e.g., to the late 1800s or early 1900s).

As far as Category 4-5  intensity storms, basin-wide unadjusted storm counts show a pronounced increase since the mid-1940s (Bender et al., 2010), but those authors cautioned that the data from such earlier decades needs to be carefully assessed for data inhomogeneity problems before such trends can be accepted as reliable.

Three recent studies used an alternative approach to estimate Atlantic or global tropical storm or hurricane counts over the past century or more:  dynamical or statistical-dynamical models, forced by either observed sea surface temperatures or century-scale historical reanalyses of atmospheric conditions  (Emanuel 2021 ; Chan et al. 2021 ; Chand et al. 2022 ).  The studies came to differing conclusions about past Atlantic tropical storm or hurricane counts.  For example, Emanuel’s study simulates a long-term increase of TCs over the Atlantic, but not in other basins, while Chand et al. (2022) simulates a substantial century-scale decreasing trend in Atlantic TCs.  These two studies used century-scale atmospheric reanalyses in their tropical storm reconstructions, which introduces some uncertainties, since such reanalyses have been found to have questionable trend behavior in some fields such as sea level pressure ( Knutson and Ploshay 2021 ).  Meanwhile  Chan et al. (2021) used only a new reconstruction of global sea surface temperatures in their Atlantic hurricane historical simulation.  They found a similar trend behavior (little century scale trend) and multidecadal variability to the hurricane reconstructions of Vecchi and Knutson (2011) which, as discussed above, were based on raw observed storm counts and historical ship track coverage estimates.

An entirely different approach, based on more than 1,000 years of Atlantic hurricane activity as inferred from paleoclimate indicators (pre-historic geologic records)  find century-scale shifts in regional activity, but no clear indicator of unusually high activity during the past century in comparison to the 1,000+ year reconstruction ( Wallace et al 2021 ; Yang et al. 2024 ).  Similarly, Winkler et al. (2023) suggests that hurricanes near the Bahamaian Archipelago in the western Atlantic occurred more frequently during the Little Ice Age (from about 1300-1850 CE) than over the observed period since 1850 CE. This finding is important since the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing of climate was much weaker during the Little Ice Age than in the more industrialized period since 1850 CE.

In summary, Figures 3 and 4 show increases in U.S. landfalling hurricanes, basin-wide hurricane counts, and the proportion of basin-wide hurricanes that reached category 3 intensity since the early 1970s or 80s.  But these strong recent increases are not representative of the behavior seen in longer (century-scale) records. Century-scale rising trends in basin-wide hurricane indices largely disappear after one adjusts the timeseries for estimates of the number of likely “missing” storms in the pre-satellite era.  Such adjustments for missing storms still have uncertainties, as they are simply estimates based on historical ship tracks, and we will likely never know exactly how many hurricanes and major hurricanes occurred over the Atlantic basin during the past century.  We conclude that the historical Atlantic hurricane data at this stage do not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced century-scale increase in:  frequency of tropical storms, hurricanes, or major hurricanes, or in the proportion of hurricanes that become major hurricanes.

C. Analysis of other observed Atlantic hurricane metrics

For hurricane rapid intensification (RI), Bhatia et al. (2019) and Bhatia et al. (2022) find that the observed increases in the probability of RI since 1982 are highly unusual compared to one climate model’s (GFDL HiFLOR) simulation of internal multidecadal climate variability, both in the Atlantic basin and globally. This change is assessed to be detectable (i.e., not explainable by natural variability alone) with medium confidence   by IPCC AR6 .  The increase in RI is consistent in sign with that model’s expected long-term response to anthropogenic forcing, though aerosol forcing decreases as well as greenhouse gas increases may have contributed to the positive trends since 1982 in the Atlantic.  Limitations of the study include the relatively short reliable basin-wide record and dependence on a single model.  Their model-based assessment of the potential role of natural variability in the observed trends is suggestive of a climate change detection in the Atlantic, globally, and especially in the NW Pacific basin, but is not definitive.  The results depend on the HiFLOR model’s ability to simulate naturally occurring Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and internal variability in other basins.   In addition, the role of anthropogenic forcing was explored using the HiFLOR simulations in only a very preliminary way.  As a consequence, the relative contributions of internal variability, greenhouse gas increases, and aerosol and dust changes to the observed rapid intensification changes have not yet been quantified with confidence.   Balaguru et al. (2022) report an increasing trend in hurricane intensification rates near the U.S. East Coast since 1979 and that external forcing in climate models produces similar, though much weaker, changes to hurricane environment metrics than those observed, which suggests a possible anthropogenic contribution.  Garner (2023) reports an increase in Atlantic rapid intensification rates since 1971.  As Bhatia et al. and Balaguru et al. note, more climate models should be tested and further research pursued on the sources of Atlantic multidecadal variability in order to better differentiate between contributions from increasing greenhouse gases, aerosol changes, and natural multidecadal variability to recent trends since 1980.  This is particularly the case given the pronounced multidecadal variability in the basin on timescales of ~60 years (e.g., Fig. 3), which can confound greenhouse gas-induced trend detection. Further, ( Yan et al. 2018 ) suggest that climate models (for CMIP3 and CMIP5) tend to simulate too little natural variability of the Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation–which is a source of Atlantic multidecadal variability.  The mechanisms of observed Atlantic multidecadal variability and its simulation in climate models continues to be an active research topic, as discussed below in Section 2.E.

According to the IPCC AR6 Summary for Policymakers , there is high confidence that anthropogenic climate change has increased extreme tropical cyclone rainfall , based on available event attribution studies and physical understanding.  However, they note that clear detection of past trends at the global scale in this metric is inhibited due to data limitations.    IPCC AR6 , in Chapter 11 of the above report, concludes that there is medium confidence , based on event attribution studies, that anthropogenic climate change has contributed to extreme rainfall in strong tropical cyclones.  Physically, a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor that can enhance moisture convergence and is expected to increase rainfall rates in storm systems such as hurricanes.  Three studies ( Guzman and Jiang 2021 , Tu et al. 2021 , and Ma et al. 2023 ) have identified increasing trends in observed global tropical cyclone rain rates using satellite-based records, but over a relatively short period so far of about two decades.  Ma et al. report that the increase in background environmental precipitation rate more than accounts for the increase so that there has actually been a slight decrease in tropical cyclone-related rain rates, relative to the background precipitation level, which they conclude is due to strengthening cold wakes near tropical cyclones in recent decades.  Keellings and Ayala’s (2019) statistical analysis of rainfall from 129 storms (1956-2016) over Puerto Rico found that nine of 17 stations in a small region of Puerto Rico show a significant influence of long-term climate change, increasing the risk of extreme rainfall like that of Hurricane Maria (2017).  They did not come to a definitive conclusion on the relation of Hurricane Maria’s precipitation to climate variability and change due to  “data limitations and the inherent stochastic nature of rainfall in Puerto Rico.” However, they concluded that in some areas of Puerto Rico the probability of a rain event of Maria’s magnitude had likely increased by a factor larger than one, with a best estimate of a nearly a factor five.   Concerning event attribution studies of hurricane rainfall, two studies ( van Oldenborgh et al. 2017 ; Risser and Wehner 2017 ) have concluded that Hurricane Harvey’s (2017) extreme rainfall totals, though primarily due to the storm’s slow movement over eastern Texas, were likely also enhanced by anthropogenic warming.  The statistical analyses of observations and models in these Hurricane Harvey studies focused on extreme precipitation in general, to which hurricanes contributed, but were not analyses of extreme rainfall only from hurricanes.  An idealized simulation of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season by Reed et al. (2022) used modified sea surface temperatures, greenhouse gases, and large-scale atmospheric temperature and moisture to approximate pre-industrial conditions.  They estimated that human-caused global warming had increased hurricane extreme hourly rainfall rates by 11% and extreme 3-day accumulated rainfall amounts by 8%.  These are attributable changes based on a model only, and without formal detection of such changes in observations.

Higher moisture content due to global warming may be contributing to a slower decay of storms over land for Atlantic hurricanes according to Li and Chakraborty (2020) , who explored both models and observations.  In contrast to the dramatically slower decay of storms reported by Li and Chakraborty over 1967–2018, Zhu and Collins (2021) find a relatively modest century-scale decline (1901-2019) in the time required for hurricanes to decay over U.S. land (i.e., faster decay), but with slower decay since 1980. They also found no century-scale trend in decay distance and that the timeseries of decay times seemed to be strongly correlated to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) or Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV).

In terms of storm propagation speeds , there is some obserational evidence from Kossin (2019) and Hall and Kossin (2019) for a slowing of tropical cyclone movement over the continental U.S. over the past century or in near-U.S. coastal regions over 1948-2017, but these observed changes have not yet been confidently linked to anthropogenic climate change (see for example Zhang et al. 2020) .  This change is assessed to be detectable (i.e., not explainable by natural variability alone) with medium confidence   by IPCC AR6 .  This is an important issue for storm impacts, because if tropical cyclones tend to move more slowly over land, they can drop larger amounts of rain in given locations ( Hall and Kossin 2019 ), causing more flooding issues.  A study of a 319-year index of inferred seasonally summed tropical cyclone precipitation  based on tree-ring records in coastal North and South Carolina showed recent increases in the last 60 years which were linked to increasing tropical cyclone duration and slowing propagation speeds in the region.

For Atlantic tropical cyclone season length , Truchelut et al. (2022) find a trend toward earlier onset of the season since 1979 — a period during which many Atlantic tropical cyclone measures showed increases — and an earlier onset of continental U.S.  named storm landfalls since 1900.  They linked these changes to more favorable thermodynamic conditions for storm formation during springtime, including warmer SSTs, but no conclusions were given attributing the changes specifically to anthropogenic forcings.

Annual economic damage from U.S. landfalling hurricanes has increased remarkably since 1900, and studies agree (e.g., Pielke et al. 2008 ; Grinsted et al. 2019 ) that the dominant driver of the increase has been the historical rise in the amount and economic value of built infrastructure and wealth along the U.S. coast in hurricane-prone regions. While in principle, one can attempt to use long records of economic damage from hurricanes to estimate whether there has been a trend in hurricane activity (by normalizing the damage records for changes in wealth or over time), there are large uncertainties inherent in this approach. Therefore, in climate science there is generally a reliance on physical climate data as opposed to economic damage data for the purpose of detecting trends in hurricane activity. Studies which have attempted account for changes in value of built infrastructure and wealth along the U.S. coast come to differing conclusions on whether a significant trend in U.S. landfalling hurricane activity can be inferred from the damage record:  two related studies find no trend ( Pielke et al. 2008 ; Weinkle et al. 2018 ) while another independent study infers an increasing trend ( Grinsted et al. 2019 ).

D. Model simulations of greenhouse warming influence on Atlantic hurricanes

Direct model simulations of hurricane activity under climate change scenarios offer another perspective on the problem. We have developed a regional dynamical downscaling model for Atlantic hurricanes and tested it by comparing with observed hurricane activity since 1980 ( Knutson et al. 2007 ). This model, when forced with observed sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions, can reproduce the observed rise in hurricane counts between 1980 and 2012, along with much of the interannual variability (Figure 5). Animations showing the development and evolution of hurricane activity in the model are available here .

Turning to future climate projections, current climate models suggest that tropical Atlantic SSTs will warm dramatically during the 21st century, and that upper tropospheric temperatures will warm even more than SSTs. Furthermore, most of the CMIP3 models project increasing levels of vertical wind shear over parts of the western tropical Atlantic (see Vecchi and Soden 2007 ). Both the increased warming of the upper troposphere relative to the surface and the increased vertical wind shear are detrimental factors for hurricane development and intensification, while warmer SSTs favor development and intensification. To explore which effect of these effects might “win out”, we can run experiments with our regional downscaling model.

Our regional model projects that Atlantic hurricane and tropical storms are substantially reduced in number , for the average 21st century climate change projected by current models, but have higher rainfall rates , particularly near the storm center. The average intensity of the storms that do occur increases by a few percent (Figure 6), in general agreement with previous studies using other relatively high resolution models, as well as with hurricane potential intensity theory (Emanuel 1987) .

Late 21st century projections of hurricane activity support the notion of increased intensity (~ 4%) and near-storm rainfall rates (~ 10 to 15%) for the Atlantic basin (Knutson et al. 2013 ) as well as for most other tropical cyclone basins (Knutson et al. 2015) . Wright et al. (2015) found model-projected increases in rainfall rates for U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones using this modeling system.

A review of existing climate change projection studies , including the ones cited above, lead us to conclude that: it is likely that greenhouse warming will cause hurricanes in the coming century to be more intense globally and have higher rainfall rates than present-day hurricanes .

Turning now to the question of the frequency of very intense hurricanes, Bender et al. 2010 and Knutson et al. 2013 , obtained tropical storm genesis information from an  Atlantic basin regional model (Knutson et al. 2008),  and then downscaling all of the individual storms from the regional model into the GFDL hurricane prediction system. The GFDL hurricane model (with a grid spacing as fine as 9 km) was able to simulate the frequency, intensity, and structure of the more intense hurricanes, such as category 3-5 storms, much more realistically than the regional (18 km grid) model.

Using this additional downscaling step, the GFDL hurricane model reproduces some important historical characteristics of very intense Atlantic hurricanes, including the wind speed distribution and the change of this distribution between active and inactive decadal periods of hurricane activity (Fig. 1 of Bender et al. 2010 ). The model also supports the notion of a substantial decrease (~25%) in the overall number of Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms with projected 21st century climate warming. However, using the CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model climate projections, the hurricane model also projects that the lifetime maximum intensity of Atlantic hurricanes will increase by about 5% during the 21st century in general agreement with previous studies.

Downscaled projections using CMIP5 multi-model scenarios (RCP4.5) as input (Knutson et al. 2013) showed increases in category 4 and 5 storm frequency (Fig. 7). However, these increases were only marginally significant for the early 21st century (+45%) or the late 21st century (+39%) CMIP5 scenarios. That study also downscaled ten individual CMIP3 models in addition to the multi-model ensemble, and found that three of ten models produced a significant increase in category 4 and 5 storms, and four of the ten models produced at least a nominal decrease. While multi-model ensemble results are probably more reliable than individual model results, each of the individual model results can be viewed as at least plausible at this time. The projected changes in Knutson et al. (2013) were not as large or significant as those of the earlier study by Bender et al. (2010) but were based on a larger sample of models.   Based on Knutson et al. (2013) and a survey of subsequent results by other modeling groups , at present we have only low confidence for an increase in category 4 and 5 storms in the Atlantic, but higher confidence that the fraction of storms that reach category 4 and 5  will increase.

Returning to the issue of future projections of aggregate activity (PDI, as in Fig. 1), while there remains a lack of consensus among various studies on how Atlantic hurricane PDI will change, no model we have analyzed shows a sensitivity of Atlantic hurricane PDI to greenhouse warming as large as that implied by the observed Atlantic PDI/local SST relationship shown in Figures 1 (top panel). In other words, there is little evidence from current dynamical models that 21st century climate warming will lead to large (~300%) increases in tropical storm numbers, hurricane numbers, or PDI in the Atlantic .

Concerning the potential detectability of Atlantic hurricane frequency climate change signals, Bender et al (2010) estimate that detection of an anthropogenic influence on intense (Category 4-5) hurricanes would not be expected for a number of decades, even if a large underlying increasing trend (+10% per decade) were occurring .

Changes in the tracks or locations of genesis and occurrence of tropical cyclones could also change with climate warming.  Two recent studies ( Garner et al. 2021 ; Knutson et al. 2022 ) project that an increasing fraction of Atlantic tropical cyclones will make U.S. landfall, especially along the U.S. East Coast, in a greenhouse gas-warmed climate.  In Knutson et al. (2022) these changes are linked to storm formation shifting closer to the U.S. coast and a weakening of westerly tropospheric steering flow that slightly weakens the recurvature of storm tracks away from the U.S. coast.  However, given the diversity of responses across different published studies, as discussed here and in the above papers, no modeling consensus is yet available on Atlantic tropical cyclone geographical shifts in location.

E. Other possible influences on past Atlantic hurricane activity

Atlantic basin major hurricanes, while increasing from the 1970s to 2005, have undergone pronounced “ups and downs” or multidecadal variability since the 1950s (Fig. 8, gray shading, from Yan et al. 2017 ).  High major hurricane activity has been correlated with low values of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear (Fig. 8, red curve).   What human or natural influences could have contributed to these multidecadal variations?   Mann and Emanuel (2006) hypothesized that a reduction in aerosol-induced cooling over the Atlantic in recent decades may have contributed to an enhanced warming of the tropical North Atlantic since the 1970s. However, the cause or causes of the recent enhanced warming of the Atlantic, relative to other tropical basins, and its effect on Atlantic tropical cyclones, remains highly uncertain (e.g., Booth et al. 2012 ; Zhang et al. 2013; Dunstone et al. 2013 ; Villarini and Vecchi 2013 ; Vecchi et al. 2017 ; Yan et al. 2019 ).

A number of anthropogenic and natural factors (e.g., aerosols, greenhouse gases, volcanic activity, solar variability, and internal climate variability) must be considered as potential contributors to the observed variability. As one example, Fig. 8 illustrates how Atlantic major hurricane frequency and tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear have been well-correlated with detrended north Atlantic sea surface temperatures and with an index or “fingerprint” of inferred changes in the Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) over the past six decades.  [For a review of the link between the AMOC and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, see Zhang et al. 2019. ]  While Fig. 8 suggests some role for internal climate variability involving ocean circulation in Atlantic hurricane variability, the correlation shown in the figure does not establish causation between internal climate variability and Atlantic hurricane variability.  However, a causal link between internal AMOC variability and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability has been established in modeling studies; Zhang and Delworth (2006) further demonstrated a causal linkage between Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and multidecadal Atlantic vertical wind shear in hybrid coupled model experiments with the prescribed Atlantic Multidecadal Variability forcing.

The relative contributions of different mechanisms in driving the observed Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Atlantic hurricane variability remains a topic of active research.   IPCC AR5 concluded that there is medium confidence that reduced aerosol forcing contributed to the observed increase in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity since the 1970s, but does not state any estimate of the magnitude of contribution.

Murakami et al. (2020) used models and fingerprint detection/attribution techniques to explore the causes of the observed global pattern of change in tropical storm frequency since 1980 (Fig. 9, top panel). Their models, forced by anthropogenic and natural forcings (Fig. 9, bottom panel), produce a fairly good representation of the global pattern of the observed trend.  For the Atlantic basin (Fig. 10), they conclude that external forcings, and particularly changes in forcing from anthropogenic aerosols, and volcanic eruptions, likely played an important role in the increased tropical storm frequency since 1980.  A similar finding for the Atlantic was reported by Dunstone et al. (2013) using a different model.   Figure 10 suggests that observed increase in Atlantic tropical cyclones from about 1980-2020 (black curve) resulted in part from the response to external forcings (red curve).  The temporary upswing in the red curve (model simulated storms) during this period resulted from effects of  anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases.  These had tended to suppress Atlantic tropical storm frequency in the model during the 20 th century prior to the 1980s, but tropical cyclone frequency increased temporarily from about 1980 to 2020 as this suppression effect was reduced due to decreased aerosol emissions over North America and Europe.  Wang et al. (2024) conclude that increased tropical cyclone frequency over 1980-2020 near the U.S. Atlantic coast was likely related to changes in aerosol forcing influence.  Rousseau-Rizzi and Emanuel (2022) conclude that aerosols caused changes in precipitation and dust emissions over the Sahara-Sahel region of Africa, which amplified the cooling effect of aerosols over the Atlantic in the 1970s and 80s.  Meanwhile, Murakami et al., Dunstone et al. and Wang et al. project, for the Atlantic, a decrease in tropical storm frequency over the coming century, as greenhouse gas influences dominate over projected aerosol influences.  Natural climate variability further complicates confident detection of such aerosol-related influences on Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and make predictions for the coming decades very challenging.   A better understanding of the relative contributions of natural variability, anthropogenic aerosols, and increasing greenhouse gases to the observed Atlantic Multidecadal Variabilty and the increases in hurricane activity metrics since 1980 is needed.  These factors and their relative influence have important implications for what to expect for Atlantic hurricane activity over the next few decades.

Sea level rise must also be considered as a way in which human-caused climate change can impact Atlantic hurricane climate–or at least the impacts of the hurricanes at the coast. The vulnerability of coastal regions to storm-surge flooding is expected to increase with future sea-level rise and coastal development, although this vulnerability will also depend upon future storm characteristics, as discussed above. All else equal, coastal inundation levels associated with tropical cyclones should increase with sea level rise. There are large ranges in the 21st century projections for both Atlantic hurricane characteristics and for the magnitude of regional sea level rise along the U.S. coastlines. However, according to the IPCC AR5 , the average rate of global sea level rise over the 21st Century will very likely exceed that observed during 1971-2010 for a range of future emission scenarios.

F. Summary for Atlantic Hurricanes and Global Warming

In summary, neither our model projections for the 21st century nor our analyses of trends in Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm activity support the notion that greenhouse gas-induced warming leads to large increases in either tropical storm or overall hurricane numbers in the Atlantic.  A recent study finds that the observed increase in an Atlantic hurricane rapid intensification metric over 1982-2009 is highly unusual compared to one climate model’s simulation of internal multidecadal climate variability, and is consistent in sign with that model’s expected long-term response to anthropogenic forcing.   Studies of extreme precipitation events in Texas and tropical cyclone precipitation in Puerto Rico are suggestive of emerging anthropogenic influence on hurricane precipitation. The above climate change detection/attribution studies are not yet definitive for hurricane activity metrics, and more research is needed for more confident conclusions.  A slowing of tropical cyclone propagation speeds over the continental U.S. has been found since 1900, but its cause remains uncertain.

Therefore, it is premature to conclude with high confidence that human-caused increases in greenhouse gases have caused a change in past Atlantic basin hurricane activity that is outside the range of natural variability, although greenhouse gases are strongly linked to global warming.   Some possible emerging human influences on past tropical cyclone activity were summarized above.  These include, for the Atlantic, recent increases in rapid intensification probability and increases in extreme tropical cyclone precipitation in some regions.  Studies suggest that the increase in tropical storm frequency in the Atlantic basin since the 1970s has been at least partly driven by decreases in aerosols from human activity and volcanic forcing, but other processes, such as natural variability, likely also played a role. A number of measures of Atlantic hurricane activity have increased since 1980 (e.g., rapid intensification, intensities, number of major hurricanes, number of hurricanes), but in cases of metrics where much longer records are available (e.g., U.S. landfalling major hurricanes or hurricanes, adjusted basin-wide counts of major hurricanes or hurricanes), there is not clear evidence for detectable increases, implying that trends since 1980 should not be assumed to be representative of longer (e.g., century-scale) trends.  Substantial multidecadal variability in the basin confounds efforts to detect long-term (century-scale) trends of the type that might be anticipated as responses to increasing greenhouse gases. Human activities may have already caused other changes in tropical cyclone activity that are not yet clearly apparent due to the small magnitude of these changes compared to estimated natural variability, or due to observational limitations.

Concerning future changes, a number of climate modeling studies project that climate warming will cause Atlantic hurricanes in the coming century to have higher rainfall rates than present-day hurricanes, and that they will be more intense (higher peak winds and lower central pressures) on average. All else equal, coastal inundation levels associated with tropical cyclones should increase with sea level rise as projected for example by IPCC AR5 .  Published studies also suggest that greenhouse gas warming will lead to future decreases in Atlantic tropical storm frequency and possibly to increases in very intense hurricane frequency, although there is uncertainty in these projections and a range or results across different modeling studies.  Recent studies point to a possible future increase in the fraction of hurricanes that make U.S. landfall, but again there is no consensus across studies on this projection.   These assessment statements are intended to apply to a global warming scenario of roughly 2 degrees Celsius.

The relatively conservative confidence levels attached to our Atlantic hurricane projections, and the lack of a claim of detectable anthropogenic influence on Atlantic hurricane activity at this time contrasts with the situation for other climate metrics, such as global mean temperature. The IPCC AR6 concludes that it is unequivocal that humans have caused the earth’s climate to warm, with a likely human contribution of 0.8 to 1.3 degrees Celsius to global mean temperature since the late 1800s.

3. Global Tropical Cyclone Activity and Climate Warming

The main focus of this web page is on Atlantic hurricane activity and global warming. However, an important question concerns whether global warming has or will substantially affect tropical cyclone activity in other basins.

In terms of historical tropical cyclone activity, recent work ( Kossin et al. 2014 ; see GFDL Research Highlight ; Kossin et al. 2016 ) indicates that the latitude at which the maximum intensity of tropical cyclones occurs has expanded poleward globally in recent decades. The poleward shift in the Northwest Pacific they conclude is unusual compared to expected variability from natural causes but consistent with general expectations of such a shift due to anthropogenic warming seen in climate model experiments. The poleward shift has been found in both hemispheres, but is not seen in the Atlantic basin.  The observed change in the Northwest Pacific basin is assessed to be detectable (i.e., not explainable by internal variability alone) with medium confidence ( IPCC AR6 )  and low-to-medium confidence ( WMO Task Team report ).

Kossin et al. (2020) document an increase in the global fraction of tropical cyclone intensity estimates reaching at least Category 3 intensity over the past four decades.  These observed changes, while statistically significant according to linear trend significance tests, have not been compared with modeled changes in the fraction of storm intensity values reaching Category 3 in response to historical anthropogenic forcing nor have they been compared to model simulated natural variability in this metric.  This change is assessed to be detectable (i.e., not explainable by natural variability alone) with medium confidence ( IPCC AR6 ).  The increase in proportion of Category 3-5 intensities was reported by Jewson and Lewis (2020) to be mostly due to a global decrease in the number of Category 1-5 intensity estimates, with a slight global increase in number of Category 3-5 intensity estimates.  A global increase in the intensities of weak tropical cyclones of 1.8 m/sec per decade was inferred by Wang et al. (2022) , based on ocean current measurements over the period 1991-2020, supporting other satellite-based TC intensity studies, though over a shorter (three decade) time period.  The Bhatia et al. 2019 study finds evidence, as discussed in section 2C above, for detectable increases since 1982 in rapid intensification cases as a fraction of all cases–for the Atlantic, globally, and especially for the NW Pacific basin. Experiments with a single model suggest that the observed change is highly unusual compared to model simulated internal variability and in the same (positive) direction as simulated for idealized historical forcing change over much of the tropics in that model.  Limitations of their study include the dependence on a single model, limited length of the available record (since 1982), and very idealized simulation of anthropogenic historical influence to date on rapid intensification.

Murakami et al. (2020) used models and fingerprint detection/attribution techniques to explore the causes of the observed spatial pattern of tropical storm frequency trends   (regional increases and decreases) around the globe over 1980-2018 (Fig. 9).  The pattern of change in tropical storm frequency they simulate since 1980 is similar to that observed, suggesting a detectable influence from external forcings (anthropogenic greenhouse gases, aerosols, and volcanic activity).  Wang et al. (2024) conclude that the observed increase in TC frequency near Hawaii over 1980-2020 was likely related to greenhouse gas-induced climate change. An earlier study ( Murakami et al. 2015 ) had found little evidence for a pronounced increase in TC frequency near Hawaii over the longer period 1949-2014 although they also concluded that anthropogenic forcing was acting to increase TC occurrence there.

As in the Atlantic basin, global tropical cyclone frequency timeseries do not show evidence for significant rising trends.  For example, globally aggregated tropical cyclone frequency (tropical storms plus hurricanes, or hurricane-strength storms) and global landfalling tropical cyclone frequency for either Category 1-2 or Category 3-5 tropical cyclones (1970 to ~2017) do not show significant trends ( Knutson et al. 2019 ).  Further, century-scale timeseries of landfalling tropical cyclones in Japan show no significant trend, while severe landfalling tropical cyclones in eastern Australia have a significant downward trend, whose cause remains undetermined ( Knutson et al. 2019 ).  Updated timeseries for several global tropical cyclone metrics (basinwide and landfalling storms) are presented here .

Despite the difficulty in identifying a detectable influence of human-caused greenhouse gas increases on global tropical cyclone activity, greenhouse gas-induced climate change may have already caused changes in tropical cyclone activity that are not yet detectable due to their small magnitude compared to estimated natural variability, or due to observational limitations.

For future projections , GFDL atmospheric modelers have developed global models capable of simulating many aspects of the seasonal and year-to-year variability of tropical cyclone frequency in a number of basins, using only historical sea surface temperatures as input. Examples of the performance of these models on historical data are provided on this web page .

Knutson et al. (2015)  examines the impact of 21st-century projected climate changes (CMIP5, RCP4.5 scenario) on a number of tropical cyclone metrics, using the GFDL hurricane model to downscale storms in all basins from one of the lower resolution global atmospheric models mentioned above. Key findings from these experiments include: fewer tropical cyclones globally in a warmer late-twenty-first-century climate (Figure 11), but also an increase in average cyclone intensity, the number and occurrence days of very intense category 4 and 5 storms in most basins (Figure 12) and in tropical cyclone precipitation rates (Figure 13).

Based on current published results, we conclude that at the global scale: a future increase in tropical cyclone precipitation rates is likely; an increase in tropical cyclone intensity is likely; an increase in very intense (category 4 and 5) tropical cyclones is more likely than not; and there is medium confidence in a decrease in the frequency of weaker tropical cyclones. Existing studies suggest a tropical cyclone windspeed increase of about 1-10% and a tropical cyclone precipitation rate increase of about 14% (+6 to +22%) for a 2 degree Celsius global warming scenario. While the median model projection of 14% is close to the rate at which water vapor increases in the atmospheric with climate warming (7% per degree Celsius SST warming), some model projections exceed this rate.  Liu et al. (2019) find that this “super-Clausius-Clapeyron” rate of tropical cyclone precipitation increase is due to the additional effect on precipitation of a strengthening of the storm’s circulation intensity in their model. The above global projections are similar to the consensus findings from a review of earlier studies in the 2010 WMO assessment . [According to climate change assessments, there is  medium confidence for a detectable human contribution to past observed increases in heavy precipitation in general over global land regions and for the United States , although this increase has not been formally detected for hurricane precipitation alone.]

These global-scale changes are not necessarily projected to occur in all tropical cyclone basins. For example, Knutson et al. (2015)  projects an increase in tropical storm frequency in the Northeast Pacific and near Hawaii, and a decrease in category 4-5 storm days over much of the southern hemisphere basins and parts of the northwest Pacific basin–both at variance with the global-scale projected changes. These differences in responses between basins seem to be linked to how much SSTs increase in a given region compared to the tropical mean increase in SST. Basins that warm more than the tropical average tend to show larger increases in tropical cyclone activity for a number of metrics.

A modeling study (Zhang et al. 2020) of tropical cyclone propagation speed finds that future anthropogenic warming could lead to a significant slowing of hurricane motion, including in the Atlantic off the east coast of the U.S. in mid-latitudes.  However, the study concluded that the observed global slowdown of tropical cyclone motion could not be easily linked to anthropogenic climate change.

Knutson et al. (2015)  simulations also project little change in the median size of tropical cyclones globally; the model shows some skill at simulating the differences in average storm size between various basins in the present-day climate, lending some credibility to its future climate change projections of tropical cyclone size.

The tropical cyclone global warming projection studies discussed above have emphasized dynamical modeling studies done at GFDL/NOAA in recent years.  A 2020 WMO-initiated assessment report on projections of tropical cyclones and climate change reviews a number of published studies by different research groups.    The report summarized projections for all tropical cyclone frequency, category 4-5  tropical cyclone frequency, tropical cyclone intensity, and tropical cyclone precipitation rates for each basin and globally (Fig. 14) for a 2 degree Celsius global warming scenario.  The results in Fig. 14 indicate that the greatest agreement across modeling studies is for an increase in rain rates and intensity, whereas frequency change (whether for all tropical cyclones or for category 4-5 tropical cyclones) does not show as much agreement across studies.   The global proportion of tropical cyclones that reach very intense (category 4 and 5) levels is projected to increase ( medium to high confidence ) due to anthropogenic warming, according to the assessment (not shown).

4. Recent Relevant GFDL Papers and Animations

• Dynamical downscaling projections of late twenty-first-century U.S. landfalling hurricane activity. (Knutson, T.R., Sirutis, J.J., Bender, M.A. , Tuleya, R. E., and Schenkel, B.), 2022. Climatic Change 171, 28. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03346-7
• Detected climatic change in global distribution of tropical cyclones.   (H. Murakami,  T. L. Delworth, W. F. Cooke, M. Zhao, B. Xiang, and P-C Hsu), 2020:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences , 117 (20), DOI:10.1073/pnas.1922500117.
• Tropical cyclone motion in a changing climate . (G. Zhang, H. Murakami , T. R. Knutson , R., and K. Yoshida), 2020: Science Advances , 6(17) , eaaz7610, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaz7610 .
• Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates. (K. Bhatia, G. A. Vecchi , T. R. Knutson , H. Murakami , J. Kossin, K. W. Dixon , and C. E. Whitlock) , 2019: Nature Communications , 10 , 635, DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-08471-z .
• The role of Atlantic overturning circulation in the recent decline of Atlantic major hurricane frequency. (Yan, Zhang, and Knutson) Nature Communications , 2017, 8 , 1695, DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-01377-8
• Dominant Role of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation in the Recent Decadal Changes in Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity. (Zhang, W., G. A. Vecchi , H. Murakami , G Villarini, T. L Delworth , X. Yang , and L. Jia), 2018: Geophysical Research Letters , 45(1) , DOI: 10.1002/2017GL076397 .
• Increasing frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea (Murakami, Vecchi, and Underwood) Nature Climate Change , 2017, 7(12) , DOI: 10.1038/s41558-017-0008-6 .
• Future changes in tropical cyclone activity in high-resolution large-ensemble simulations. (Yoshida, K, M Sugi, R Mizuta, Hiroyuki Murakami , and M Ishii,) 2017: Geophysical Research Letters , 44(19) , DOI: 10.1002/2017GL075058 .
• Western North Pacific tropical cyclone model tracks in present and future climates. (Nakamura, J, S J Camargo, A Sobel, N Henderson, K A Emanuel, A Kumar, T LaRow, Hiroyuki Murakami , M Roberts, E Scoccimarro, P L Vidale, H Wang, M F Wehner, and Ming Zhao ), 2017: Journal of Geophysical Research , 122(18) , DOI: 10.1002/2017JD027007 .
• Projection of future changes in the frequency of intense tropical cyclones. (Sugi, M, Hiroyuki Murakami , and K Yoshida), 2017: Climate Dynamics , 49(1-2) , DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3361-7 .
• Global Projections of Intense Tropical Cyclone Activity for the Late Twenty-First Century from Dynamical Downscaling of CMIP5/RCP4.5 Scenarios (Knutson, et al.), J. Climate , Sept. 2015.
• Investigating the Influence of Anthropogenic Forcing and Natural Variability on the 2014 Hawaiian Hurricane Season. ( Murakami, H., et al.) , 2015: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society , 96(12) , DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-EEE_2014_ch23.1 .
• Influences of Natural Variability and Anthropogenic Forcing on the Extreme 2015 Accumulated Cyclone Energy in the Western North Pacific [in “Explaining Extremes of 2015 from a Climate Perspective”], (Zhang, W. et al.) 2016: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society , 97(12) , DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0146.1 S131-S135.
• Simulation and Prediction of Category 4 and 5 Hurricanes in the High-Resolution GFDL HiFLOR Coupled Climate Model. ( Murakami, H., et al.) 2015: Journal of Climate , 28(23) , DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0216.1 .
• Regional climate model projections of rainfall from U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones. (Wright, Knutson , and Smith), Climate Dynamics , 2015 .
• More tropical cyclones in a cooler climate? (Sugi, M., K. Yoshida, and Hiroyuki Murakami , 2015, Geophysical Research Letters , 42(16) , DOI: 10.1002/2015GL064929 .)
• The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity, (Kossin, Emanuel, and Vecchi; Nature 2014). (see GFDL Research Highlight )
• Dynamical Downscaling Projections of Twenty-First-Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-Based Scenarios , J. Climate 2013.
• TC-permitting GCM simulations of hurricane frequency response to sea surface temperature anomalies projected for the late 21st century . J. Climate 2012.
• Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes. Science 2010
• FAQ (Frequently Asked Questions) on our recent Science paper (updated Jan. 25, 2010)
• How well do we know past Atlantic hurricane activity? A web site on adjusting for “missing storms” in the past Atlantic hurricane data.
• Simulations of global hurricane climatology, interannual variability, and response to global warming using a 50km resolution GCM. J. Climate, 2009.
• Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions, Nature Geoscience, doi:10.1038/ngeo202 (Published online May 2008)
• FAQ (Frequency Asked Questions) on our recent Nature Geoscience study (Posted June 11, 2008)
• On Estimates of Historical North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity — J. Climate (July 15, 2008 issue)
• Simulation of the recent multidecadal increase of Atlantic hurricane activity — BAMS (October 2007 issue)
• Simulated Hurricane Animations Web Page

5. Assessment of Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change

A new ScienceBrief Review on Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change has been published (Mar. 26, 2021).

An updated WMO Task Team assessment on tropical cyclones and climate change was published (2019; 2020) in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society :

I) “ Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment. Part I:  Detection and Attribution ” 

II) “ Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part II. Projected Response to Anthropogenic Warming ” 

The WMO Task Team assessment above updates the March 2010 assessment “ Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change” , produced by the preceding WMO Expert Team.

These reports assess published research on tropical cyclones and climate change from the international scientific literature.

6. Early GFDL Research on Global Warming and Hurricanes

The strongest hurricanes in the present climate may be upstaged by even more intense hurricanes over the next century as the earth’s climate is warmed by increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Although we cannot say at present whether more or fewer hurricanes will occur in the future with global warming, the hurricanes that do occur near the end of the 21st century are expected to be stronger and have significantly more intense rainfall than under present day climate conditions. This expectation ( Figure 15 ) is based on an anticipated enhancement of energy available to the storms due to higher tropical sea surface temperatures.

The results shown in Figure 15 are based on a simulation study carried out by Thomas R. Knutson and Robert E. Tuleya at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). In this study hurricanes were simulated for a climate warming as projected to occur with a substantial build-up of atmospheric CO2. An increase of intensity of about one-half category on the Saffir-Simpson scale was simulated for an 80 year build-up of atmospheric CO2 at 1%/yr (compounded). For hurricane wind speeds, our model shows a sensitivity of about 4% per degree Celsius increase in tropical sea surface temperatures, with a larger percentage increase in near-storm rainfall.

Early Studies on Global Warming and Hurricanes

An increase in the upper-limit intensity of hurricanes with global warming was suggested on theoretical grounds by M.I.T. Professor Kerry Emanuel in 1987. In the late 1990s, Knutson, Tuleya, and Kurihara at GFDL/NOAA began simulating samples of hurricanes from both the present-day climate and from a greenhouse-gas warmed climate. This was done by “telescoping-in” on coarsely resolved tropical storms in GFDL’s global climate model using the high-resolution GFDL hurricane prediction model ( Figure 16 ). A research report describing this work was published in Science (1998), with a more detailed paper in Climate Dynamics (1999, vol. 15). All of these studies, as well as our more recent ones, include the moderating effect of atmospheric stabilization aloft under high CO 2 conditions, rather than simply increasing the sea surface temperature alone.

In a follow-up study , which appeared in the Journal of Climate(2001), NOAA scientists Knutson and Tuleya teamed up with Isaac Ginis and Weixing Shen of the University of Rhode Island to explore the climate warming/ hurricane intensity issue using hurricane model coupled to a full ocean model. The coupled model was used to simulate the “cool SST wake” generated by the hurricanes as they moved over the simulated ocean ( Figure 17 ). The model simulations including this additional feedback still showed a similar percentage increase of hurricane intensity under warm climate conditions as the original model without ocean coupling.

A comprehensive idealized hurricane intensity modeling study by Knutson and Tuleya, published in Journal of Climate (2004), confirms the general conclusions of previous studies but makes them more robust by using future climate projections from nine different global climate models and four different versions of the GFDL hurricane model. The GFDL hurricane model used for the study is an enhanced resolution version of the model used to predict hurricanes operationally at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction. According to this latest study, an 80 year build-up of atmospheric CO 2 at 1%/yr (compounded) leads to roughly a one-half category increase in potential hurricane intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale and an 18% increase in precipitation near the hurricane core. A 1%/yr CO 2 increase is an idealized scenario of future climate forcing. As noted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), there is considerable uncertainty in projections of future radiative forcing of earth’s climate. A criticism of our paper by Michaels et al. is responded to here .

An implication of the GFDL studies is that if the frequency of tropical cyclones remains the same over the coming century, a greenhouse-gas induced warming may lead to an increasing risk globally in the occurrence of highly destructive category-5 storms.

Related Links:

For more information and related research see:

• Future projections of global tropical cyclone activity (J. Climate 2015).
• Future projections of intense Atlantic hurricanes (J. Climate 2013).
• Global models of hurricane frequency developed at GFDL.
• Historical changes in Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms .
• GFDL’s Hurricane Portal
• GFDL Hurricane simulations– animations
• Hurricanes: Science and Society web page
• NOAA State of the Science Fact Sheet on “Atlantic Hurricanes and Climate” (May 2020)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Goddard institute for space studies, goddard space flight center sciences and exploration directorate earth sciences division, gistemp v4 figures.

GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP v4)

News and updates.

October 21, 2024: The GISTEMP monthly update that was delayed from the planned release on October 9 has now been posted.

October 20, 2024: The programs and the data file used to create SBBX.ERSSTv5 from NOAA/NCEI's data are now available on the Sources page in the Ocean data section..

September 11, 2024: NASA has posted a feature about the August and three-month JJA 2024 global temperature anomalies. The article also includes discussion about the recently published uncertainty analysis paper.

September 4, 2024: A new observational uncertainty ensemble analysis of the GISTEMP analysis has been published — Lenssen, N., G.A. Schmidt, M. Hendrickson, P. Jacobs, M. Menne, and R. Ruedy, 2024: A GISTEMPv4 observational uncertainty ensemble . J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. , 129 , no. 17, e2023JD040179, doi:10.1029/2023JD040179.

June 11, 2024: NASA has posted a short feature about the May global temperature anomaly, and the 12-month period it concluded.

See the GISTEMP News page for a list of NASA releases and other articles and features related to the GISTEMP analysis. Announcements when our monthly updates are released are posted to the NASA/GISS Twitter feed .

See the Updates to Analysis page for detailed update information about GISTEMP v4.

Contacts/Personnel

Before contacting us, please check if your question about the GISTEMP analysis is already answered in the FAQ .

If the FAQ does not answer your question, please address your inquiry to Dr. Reto Ruedy .

Other researchers currently participating in the GISTEMP analysis include Michael Hendrickson , Maxwell Elling , Alexander Herron , Dr. Makiko Sato , and Dr. Nathan Lenssen.

The GISTEMP analysis was initiated by Dr. James E. Hansen, now retired. It is currently led by Dr. Gavin Schmidt .

Past members on the GISTEMP team have included Dr. Sergej Lebedeff, Dr. Helene Wilson, Jay Glascoe, Avraham Persin, Dr. Ken Lo, and others. We also thank Nick Barnes et al. at the Clear Climate Code project for their contributions.

Citation and Image Credits

When referencing the GISTEMP v4 data provided here, please cite both this webpage and also our most recent scholarly publication about the data. In citing the webpage, be sure to include the date of access.

• GISTEMP Team, 2024: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP), version 4 . NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Dataset accessed 20YY-MM-DD at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ .
• Lenssen, N., G.A. Schmidt, M. Hendrickson, P. Jacobs, M. Menne, and R. Ruedy, 2024: A GISTEMPv4 observational uncertainty ensemble . J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. , 129 , no. 17, e2023JD040179, doi:10.1029/2023JD040179.

An extensive Reference List is available for those wanting to explore past publications about the GISTEMP analysis and some of the input resources.

Graphics from these GISTEMP pages are subject to NASA Image and Media guidance . Per those guidelines, graphics you may create using the website tools here do not require permission for you to use elsewhere, but acknowledgment of their source should be given. Please credit "NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies" or, if space is limited, "NASA GISS/GISTEMP".

Background, History and Updates

The basic GISS temperature analysis scheme was defined in the late 1970s by James Hansen when a method of estimating global temperature change was needed for comparison with one-dimensional global climate models. The analysis method was fully documented in Hansen and Lebedeff (1987) . Several papers describing updates to the analysis followed over the following decades, most recently that of Hansen et al. (2010) , as well as the uncertainty quantification of Lenssen et al. (2019) and Lenssen et al. (2024) .

For further details, please see the GISTEMP Background , History , and References pages. We also maintain a running record of modifications made to the analysis on our Updates to Analysis page.

The GISTEMP analysis is updated regularly. Graphs and tables are posted around the middle of every month using the latest GHCN and ERSST data. The update incorporates reports for the previous month as well as late reports and corrections for earlier months.

Source Code including re-formatting Ocean data

Programs used in the GISTEMP analysis and documentation on their use are available for download . The programs assume a Unix-like operating system and require familiarity with Python for installation and use.

Uncertainty Analyses

Datasets and R source code, as well as documentation on their use, may be downloaded for the 2024 uncertainty ensemble and 2019 uncertainty quantification analyses by Lenssen et al.

Tables of Global and Hemispheric Monthly Means and Zonal Annual Means

Combined land-surface air and sea-surface water temperature anomalies (land-ocean temperature index, l-oti).

The following are plain-text files in tabular format of temperature anomalies, i.e. deviations from the corresponding 1951-1980 means.

• Global-mean monthly, seasonal, and annual means , 1880-present, updated through most recent month: TXT , CSV
• Northern Hemisphere-mean monthly, seasonal, and annual means , 1880-present, updated through most recent month: TXT , CSV
• Southern Hemisphere-mean monthly, seasonal, and annual means , 1880-present, updated through most recent month: TXT , CSV
• Zonal annual means , 1880-present, updated through most recent complete year: TXT , CSV

AIRS v6 and AIRS v7 Temperature Anomalies

The following tables show anomalies based on AIRS data vs. 2007-2016. Corresponding L-OTI anomaly data are also provided.

• Global-mean monthly, seasonal, and annual means , 2002-present, updated through most recent month: TXT , CSV
• Northern Hemisphere-mean monthly, seasonal, and annual means , 2002-present, updated through most recent month: TXT , CSV
• Southern Hemisphere-mean monthly, seasonal, and annual means , 2002-present, updated through most recent month: TXT , CSV
• Zonal annual means , 2002-present, updated through most recent complete year: TXT , CSV

Gridded Monthly Temperature Anomaly Data

Users interested in the entire gridded surface air temperature anomaly data may download netCDF files containing selected series on a regular 2°×2° grid or the basic SBBX binary files.

Compressed NetCDF Files (regular 2°×2° grid)

• Land-Ocean Temperature Index, ERSSTv5, 1200km smoothing (23 MB)
• Surface air temperature (no ocean data), 250km smoothing (9 MB)
• Land Mask on a 2°×2° grid

Compressed Zarr Directories (regular 2°×2° grid)

• Land-Ocean Temperature Index, ERSSTv5, 1200km smoothing (53 MB)
• Surface air temperature (no ocean data), 250km smoothing (27 MB)

Compressed Basic Subbox Grid Series (equal-area grid)

• Surface air temperature, 1200km smoothing - GISTEMP v4 (27 MB)
• Surface air temperature, 250km smoothing - GISTEMP v4 (9 MB)
• Sea surface air temperature (ERSSTv5) , currently used (30 MB)
• Sea surface air temperature (ERSSTv4) , used until July 2017 (30 MB)
• Sea surface air temperature (ERSSTv3b) , used until June 2015 (30 MB)
• Sea surface air temperature (HadR2) , used until Nov. 2012 (30 MB)

Also available are various FORTRAN programs and instructions to create (time series of) regular gridded anomaly maps from the basic files. Be sure to read the README file for discussion of the files' binary format.

• SBBX_to_nc.f
• SBBX_to_1x1.f
• SBBX_to_txt.f

Please see the GISTEMP references page for citations to publications related to this research. Copies of many of our papers are available in the GISS publications database .

Related Links

+ Update Release Schedule

+ NOAA/NCEI State of the Climate

Data Sources:

+ Land data: GHCN v4

+ Ocean data: ERSST v5

+ El Niño data

+ AIRS Data v6

+ AIRS Data v7

• News & Features Overview
• Projects Overview
• Global Climate Modeling
• Astrobiology / ROCKE-3D
• Climate Impacts
• Datasets Overview
• GISTEMP Surface Temperature
• Model E Simulations
• Model Forcings
• ROCKE-3D Simulations
• ISCCP Data Products
• GACP Data Products
• Publications Overview
• 2024 Publications
• 2023 Publications
• 2022 Publications
• 2021 Publications
• 2020 Publications
• Accepted & In Press
• Author Bibliographies
• Annual Best
• Dissertations
• Software Overview
• GCM Model E
• Panoply Data Viewer
• G.Projector
• Mars24 Sunclock
• Education Overview
• Internships
• CCRI STEM Engagement
• Graduate Study
• Postdoc Research
• STEM Curriculum Modules
• Events Overview
• Lunch Seminars
• Past Special Events
• Management Staff
• Personnel Directory
• Visitors' Info

Page updated: Oct 21, 2024

Website Curator: Robert B. Schmunk — NASA Official: Gavin A. Schmidt

Contact GISS — NASA Privacy Policy — Accessibility