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115 Earthquake Essay Topic Ideas & Examples

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Earthquakes are a natural phenomenon that can have devastating effects on communities and infrastructure. For students studying geology, geography, or environmental science, writing an essay on earthquakes can provide a deeper understanding of the causes, impacts, and mitigation strategies associated with these powerful events. To help spark your creativity, here are 115 earthquake essay topic ideas and examples:

The causes of earthquakes: exploring the geological processes that lead to seismic activity.

The Richter scale: how scientists measure the magnitude of earthquakes.

The relationship between earthquakes and plate tectonics.

Famous earthquakes in history: examining events like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake.

The impact of earthquakes on buildings and infrastructure.

The role of early warning systems in mitigating earthquake damage.

The social and economic impacts of earthquakes on communities.

Earthquake forecasting: can scientists predict when and where earthquakes will occur?

The psychological effects of living in earthquake-prone regions.

The connection between earthquakes and tsunamis.

The role of government agencies in earthquake preparedness and response.

The ethics of rebuilding after a major earthquake.

Earthquake-resistant building design: how engineers are working to minimize damage.

The cultural significance of earthquakes in different societies.

The environmental impacts of earthquakes on ecosystems and wildlife.

The role of international cooperation in earthquake relief efforts.

The effects of climate change on seismic activity.

Earthquake diplomacy: how disasters can bring nations together.

The history of seismology: tracing the development of earthquake science.

The connection between fracking and induced earthquakes.

The role of social media in disseminating information during earthquakes.

The impact of earthquakes on global supply chains.

The relationship between earthquakes and volcanic activity.

The intersection of politics and earthquakes: how governments respond to disasters.

The ethics of disaster relief in earthquake-affected regions.

The role of citizen science in monitoring earthquakes.

The impact of earthquakes on mental health and well-being.

The effects of earthquakes on agriculture and food security.

The connection between earthquakes and groundwater contamination.

The role of gender in disaster response and recovery after earthquakes.

The impact of earthquakes on tourism and local economies.

The relationship between earthquakes and landslides.

The ethics of earthquake prediction: should we try to forecast seismic events?

The connection between earthquakes and nuclear power plants.

The role of indigenous knowledge in earthquake preparedness.

The impact of earthquakes on education and schools.

The effects of earthquakes on transportation networks.

The relationship between earthquakes and fracking-induced earthquakes.

The role of insurance companies in earthquake risk assessment and management.

The impact of earthquakes on wildlife and ecosystems.

The connection between earthquakes and climate change.

The role of social media in earthquake response and recovery efforts.

The effects of earthquakes on water resources and infrastructure.

The relationship between earthquakes and mental health.

The impact of earthquakes on agriculture and food security.

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Earthquake Essay for Students and Children

500+ Words Essay on Earthquake

Simply speaking, Earthquake means the shaking of the Earth’s surface. It is a sudden trembling of the surface of the Earth. Earthquakes certainly are a terrible natural disaster. Furthermore, Earthquakes can cause huge damage to life and property. Some Earthquakes are weak in nature and probably go unnoticed. In contrast, some Earthquakes are major and violent. The major Earthquakes are almost always devastating in nature. Most noteworthy, the occurrence of an Earthquake is quite unpredictable. This is what makes them so dangerous.

Types of Earthquake

Tectonic Earthquake: The Earth’s crust comprises of the slab of rocks of uneven shapes. These slab of rocks are tectonic plates. Furthermore, there is energy stored here. This energy causes tectonic plates to push away from each other or towards each other. As time passes, the energy and movement build up pressure between two plates.

Therefore, this enormous pressure causes the fault line to form. Also, the center point of this disturbance is the focus of the Earthquake. Consequently, waves of energy travel from focus to the surface. This results in shaking of the surface.

Volcanic Earthquake: This Earthquake is related to volcanic activity. Above all, the magnitude of such Earthquakes is weak. These Earthquakes are of two types. The first type is Volcano-tectonic earthquake. Here tremors occur due to injection or withdrawal of Magma. In contrast, the second type is Long-period earthquake. Here Earthquake occurs due to the pressure changes among the Earth’s layers.

Collapse Earthquake: These Earthquakes occur in the caverns and mines. Furthermore, these Earthquakes are of weak magnitude. Undergrounds blasts are probably the cause of collapsing of mines. Above all, this collapsing of mines causes seismic waves. Consequently, these seismic waves cause an Earthquake.

Explosive Earthquake: These Earthquakes almost always occur due to the testing of nuclear weapons. When a nuclear weapon detonates, a big blast occurs. This results in the release of a huge amount of energy. This probably results in Earthquakes.

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Effects of Earthquakes

First of all, the shaking of the ground is the most notable effect of the Earthquake. Furthermore, ground rupture also occurs along with shaking. This results in severe damage to infrastructure facilities. The severity of the Earthquake depends upon the magnitude and distance from the epicenter. Also, the local geographical conditions play a role in determining the severity. Ground rupture refers to the visible breaking of the Earth’s surface.

Another significant effect of Earthquake is landslides. Landslides occur due to slope instability. This slope instability happens because of Earthquake.

Earthquakes can cause soil liquefaction. This happens when water-saturated granular material loses its strength. Therefore, it transforms from solid to a liquid. Consequently, rigid structures sink into the liquefied deposits.

Earthquakes can result in fires. This happens because Earthquake damages the electric power and gas lines. Above all, it becomes extremely difficult to stop a fire once it begins.

Earthquakes can also create the infamous Tsunamis. Tsunamis are long-wavelength sea waves. These sea waves are caused by the sudden or abrupt movement of large volumes of water. This is because of an Earthquake in the ocean. Above all, Tsunamis can travel at a speed of 600-800 kilometers per hour. These tsunamis can cause massive destruction when they hit the sea coast.

In conclusion, an Earthquake is a great and terrifying phenomenon of Earth. It shows the frailty of humans against nature. It is a tremendous occurrence that certainly shocks everyone. Above all, Earthquake lasts only for a few seconds but can cause unimaginable damage.

FAQs on Earthquake

Q1 Why does an explosive Earthquake occurs?

A1 An explosive Earthquake occurs due to the testing of nuclear weapons.

Q2 Why do landslides occur because of Earthquake?

A2 Landslides happen due to slope instability. Most noteworthy, this slope instability is caused by an Earthquake.

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Geology Issues: Earthquakes Essay

The tectonic plates can be discussed as constantly moving together, but these movements are not noticed until the edges of the plates meet each other to cause slipping on a fault. Thus, earthquakes can be defined as the results of the movements of tectonic plates about their faults slipping past each other.

Furthermore, the earthquake is felt and observed as shaking processes caused by the waves of the significant energy noticed when the tectonic plates move or slip past each other influencing the intensity of the movement because of its direction. Thus, the tectonic plates are separated and boundaries are presented as faults, and earthquakes are observed on the faults because it is the place of slipping the edges of the plates.

The direction of the plates’ movements and the sizes of the faults are different as well as the sizes of tectonic plates. From this point, it is necessary to compare the Haitian Earthquake (2010), the Chile Earthquake (2010), and the Illinois Earthquake (2008) in order to conclude about the causes of earthquakes and differences in effects.

Thus, earthquakes are different in their intensity and associated consequences because of differences in the faulting and directions according to which the plates move in relation to each other as well as because of the sizes of the tectonic plates and the amount of energy released after the observed movement.

Earthquakes are different in relation to their intensity because tectonic plates move in relation to each following three directions, and the results of these movements are various because the movement of the plates away from one another (divergent movement), towards each other (compressional movement), and slipping past each (transform boundary) other along with the size of the fault can lead to different devastating effects and losses.

The Haitian Earthquake occurred in 2010, causing “316,000 people killed, 300,000 injured, 1.3 million displaced, 97,294 houses destroyed and 188,383 damaged in the Port-au-Prince area and in much of southern Haiti” (“Haitian Earthquake”). The significant damage and high losses were the results of the earthquake’s nature because it occurred at the boundary of the Caribbean plate and the North America plate, and the plates’ movements were characterized as compressional with the 20 mm/y slip.

Such a motion was too intensive, and it was associated with a combination of “reverse and left-lateral strike slip faulting on the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault system” characteristic for the region. As a result, the magnitude was fixed as 7.0 and the observed depth was 13 km (“Haitian Earthquake”).

The aspects of the Haitian Earthquake should be compared with the features of the Chile Earthquake (2010) because, in spite of the high magnitude of 8.8, the damage and negative effects of the earthquake were less. The depth of the Chile Earthquake was 35 km, and a lot of houses, communications, and water supplies were destroyed as a result of the earthquake.

Thus, the statistics provide the data on “523 people killed, 24 missing, about 12,000 injured, 800,000 displaced and at least 370,000 houses, 4,013 schools, 79 hospitals, and 4,200 boats damaged” (“Chile Earthquake”). Although the earthquake was extremely intensive, the human and economic loss was comparably less while referring to the Haitian Earthquake of 2010.

The Nazca plate and the South American plate moved in relation to the principles of the convergent boundary causing the significant earthquake with realizing a lot of destroying energy (“Chile Earthquake”). However, the effects of the earthquakes associated with the convergent boundary can be discussed as less destructive in comparison with the compressional boundary. Moreover, the location of the fault also contributed to producing stress and further losses.

The Illinois Earthquake observed in 2008 is characterized by the low magnitude of 5.4 and the depth of 11.6 km (“Illinois Earthquake”). The earthquake occurred in the Wabash Valley Seismic zone which can be described with references to “a network of normal faults that trend north-northeastward from Gallatin and White Counties in southern Illinois and adjacent Posey County in southern Indiana” that is why earthquakes in this zone cannot result in significant releases of energies to provoke many losses in relation to the human and economic resources (“Illinois Earthquake”).

The slight damage is the result of the earthquakes associated with the divergent boundary or normal faults because the plates are inclined to move away from one another. Furthermore, rocks are rather weak in their effects and tensions in comparison with the other types of movements. That is why the Illinois Earthquake did not cause significant structural damage or human loss.

Thus, the effects of the Haitian Earthquake, the Chile Earthquake, and the Illinois Earthquake are different because all these earthquakes are characterized by various types of the tectonic plates’ movements which can cause different damages because of the different levels of magnitude. Moreover, the sizes of the tectonic plates and the nature of the faults are also various, and these factors are important to influence the particular features of the boundaries and earthquakes.

Works Cited

Chile Earthquake, February 2010 . 2013. Web

Haitian Earthquake, January 2010 . 2013. Web.

Illinois Earthquake, April 2008 . 2013. Web.

Chicago (A-D)
Chicago (N-B)

IvyPanda. (2022, August 18). Geology Issues: Earthquakes. https://ivypanda.com/essays/geology-issues-earthquakes/

"Geology Issues: Earthquakes." IvyPanda , 18 Aug. 2022, ivypanda.com/essays/geology-issues-earthquakes/.

IvyPanda . (2022) 'Geology Issues: Earthquakes'. 18 August.

IvyPanda . 2022. "Geology Issues: Earthquakes." August 18, 2022. https://ivypanda.com/essays/geology-issues-earthquakes/.

1. IvyPanda . "Geology Issues: Earthquakes." August 18, 2022. https://ivypanda.com/essays/geology-issues-earthquakes/.

Bibliography

IvyPanda . "Geology Issues: Earthquakes." August 18, 2022. https://ivypanda.com/essays/geology-issues-earthquakes/.

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Essay Topics About Earthquakes

Essay Topics

Essay Questions About Earthquakes

What Motivates Volunteerism During A Natural Disaster?
Who Benefits from Cash and Food-for-Work Programs in Haiti Following the Earthquake?
Why Did Haiti Suffer More from An Earthquake Than Kobe?
Why Did the Haiti Earthquake Happen?
Why Does the Chilean Earthquake Occur?
Why Was the Earthquake in Haiti So Deadly?
Was the Japan Earthquake Caused by Humans?
How Did the 1964 Alaska Earthquake Improve Our Knowledge?
How Does the Theory of Plate Tectonics Contribute to Our Understanding of the Global Distribution of Earthquakes and Volcanic Zones?
How Did Leaders Exert Control Over the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake?
How Unstable Was the Regional Economy Following the Kobe Earthquake in 1995?
How Would Society Respond to Modern Earthquakes If Only Myths Were Believed?
How Did the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake Affect the Economic Activity of the American West?
How Does the Nepal Earthquake Continue to Alter the Lives of People?
Are Individuals Insured Against Natural Catastrophes Like Earthquakes?
What Are the Long-Term Effects of the 2010 Haiti Earthquake?
How Do Small Japanese Businesses Prepare for Natural Disasters Like Earthquakes?
The Kobe Earthquake and the Death of Mrs. Endo
What Was the Most Recent Earthquake?
What Are Earthquakes, and Why Do They Occur?
What Are Three Facts About Earthquakes?
What Is an Earthquake, in Simple Terms?
How Do Earthquakes Begin?
What Effects Do Earthquakes Have?
How Can We Prevent Earthquakes?
What Are the Five Most Important Earthquake Causes?
Where Is It Safest to Be During an Earthquake?
Can Humans Trigger Earthquakes?
What Are the Five Facts Concerning Earthquakes?
Does A Minor Earthquake Indicate an Upcoming Major Earthquake?

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Earthquake Essay

Download the Earthquake Essay Available on Vedantu’s Website.

Earthquakes are some of the most devastating natural disasters. Millions of dollars worth of property are damaged and a hundred die every time a big magnitude of eater quake strikes. It is in this regard that everyone must read and know about earthquakes and be prepared to mitigate the damage. Furthermore, the topic of earthquakes is quite often asked in exams. Preparing for this topic will enable them to have an edge and score more marks in the English paper.

To serve the above-mentioned purpose, Vedantu has come up with the Earthquake essay. This essay is prepared by the experts who know what exactly is required to know and weeding out points that are not important. The essay is very precise and would surely allow students to successfully claim marks in the essay question and even stay prepared when an earthquake actually strikes.

What is an Earthquake?

When the earth’s surface shakes, the phenomenon is referred to as an earthquake. Precisely, the sudden trembling of the earth’s surface is the cause of an earthquake. Earthquakes are regarded as one of the deadliest natural disasters. Huge damage and loss of property are caused by earthquakes. There are various types of earthquakes. Some of them are severe in nature. The most dangerous thing about an earthquake is that it is quite unpredictable. It can cause several damages without any previous indication. The intensity of an earthquake is measured by the Richter’s scale. Generally, earthquakes occur due to the movement of tectonic plates under the earth’s surface.

Types of Earthquake

There are four kinds of earthquakes namely

Tectonic Earthquake,

Volcanic Earthquake,

Collapse Earthquake and

Explosive Earthquake.

Tectonic Earthquake

It is caused due to the movement of the slab of rocks of uneven shapes that lie underneath the earth’s crust. Apart from that, energy is stored in the earth’s crust. Tectonic plates are pushed away from each other or towards each other due to the energy. A pressure is formed because of the energy and movement as time passes. A fault line is formed due to severe pressure. The center point of this dispersion is the epicenter of the earthquake. Subsequently, traveling of the waves of energy from focus to the surface causes the tremor.

Volcanic Earthquake

The earthquake caused by volcanic activity is called a volcanic earthquake. These kinds of earthquakes are of weaker magnitudes. Volcanic earthquakes are categorized into two types. In the first type, which is called volcano-tectonic, shaking happens due to input or withdrawal of Magma. In the second type, which is termed as Long-period earthquake, tremors occur due to changing of pressure among the earth’s layers.

Collapse Earthquake

Collapse Earthquake is the third type of earthquake that occurs in the caverns and mines. This is another example of a weak magnitude earthquake. Mines collapsed due to underground blasts. Consequently, seismic waves are formed due to this collapsing. Earthquakes occur because of these seismic waves.

Explosive Earthquake

The fourth type of earthquake is called an explosive earthquake. This is caused due to the testing of nuclear weapons.

Effects of Earthquake

The effects of earthquakes are very severe and deadly.

It can cause irreparable damage to property and loss of human lives. The lethality of an earthquake depends on its distance from the epicentre.

Damage to establishments is the direct impact of an earthquake. In the hilly areas, several landslides are caused due to earthquakes.

Another major impact of an earthquake is soil liquefaction. Losing the strength of water-saturated granular material is the cause behind this. The rigidity of soil is totally lost due to this.

Since the earthquake affects the electric power and gas lines, it can cause a fire to break out.

Deadly Tsunamis are caused due to earthquakes. Gigantic sea waves are caused by the sudden or abnormal movement of huge volumes of water. This is called an earthquake in the ocean. When tsunamis hit the sea coasts, they cause a massive loss of lives and properties.

Earthquake is termed as one of the most huge and lethal natural disasters in the world. It proves the fact that human beings are just nothing in front of nature. The sudden occurrence of earthquakes shocks everyone. Scientists are working rigorously to prevent the damage of earthquakes, but nothing fruitful has been achieved yet.

Examples of Devastating Earthquake

The city of Kobe in Japan witnessed a devastating earthquake on January 17, 1995, killing more than 6,000 and making more than 45,000 people homeless. The magnitude of the quake was 6.9 at the moment which caused damage of around 100 million dollars. The governor of Kobe spent years on reconstruction and made efforts to bring back fifty thousand people who had left home. Japan geologically is a highly active country. It lies upon four major tectonic plates namely, Eurasian, Philippine, Pacific, and North American which frequently meet and interact.

The second incident is in Nepal where an earthquake struck on April 25, 2015. About 9000 people were killed and almost 600,000 structures were destroyed. The magnitude of the quake was 7.9 and the repels were felt by neighbouring countries like Bangladesh, China and India. The disaster caused severe damage of millions of dollars. All the countries across the world including India garnered to help Nepal by sending monetary aid, medical supplies, transport helicopters and others.

FAQs on Earthquake Essay

1. How to download the Earthquake Essay?

The Earthquake essay is available on Vedantu's website in PDF format. The PDF could be downloaded on any device, be it android, apple or windows. One just has to log on to www.vedantu.com and download the document. The document is totally free of cost and a student does not need to pay any prior registration fee.

2. How to protect oneself during an earthquake?

Earthquakes could be very disastrous and can cause a lot of collateral damage. During an earthquake you can look for the corners to hide. Another safe place to hide is under the table or under the bed. If one is sitting in a multistory building, avoid taking a lift and only use the stairs. In this kind of situation, one should never panic and stay calm. Let the earthquake pass until then keep hiding in the safe spot. Once over, come out to evaluate the situation and take appropriate actions.

3. How to mitigate the effects of an earthquake?

Prevention is better than cure. It is always a better idea to take necessary actions before an earthquake has struck. In the first place, send a copy of all your documents to someone reliable. In case of an earthquake that destroys your important documents, there would always remain a facility to retrieve them. Research and know if your city is in a seismic zone. One should also take note of earthquakes during the construction of a house and lay emphasis on a seismic-proof house.

4. How can one teach people about the effects of an earthquake?

There are many ways one can raise awareness about the effects of earthquakes. There is Youtube and Instagram which could be used to disseminate all the knowledge about the earthquake and its impact on humans. You can also go to schools and colleges to conduct a seminar whereby the students could be told about the mitigation and steps to take when an earthquake strikes. However before that, one must thoroughly research the topic. For this, visit www.vedntu.com and download the earthquake essay for free.

5. Who has written the Earthquake essay?

The earthquake essay provided by Vedantu is prepared by expert teachers who invest a good amount of time and effort to come up with an essay that is highly useful for the students in their personal lives as well as for their academic performance. The students can use this essay to maximize their abilities to cope with the questions on earthquakes and the earthquake itself. The essay is totally reliable and one mustn’t doubt its credibility at all.

Essay on Earthquake Preparedness

Students are often asked to write an essay on Earthquake Preparedness in their schools and colleges. And if you’re also looking for the same, we have created 100-word, 250-word, and 500-word essays on the topic.

Let’s take a look…

100 Words Essay on Earthquake Preparedness

Understanding earthquakes.

An earthquake is when the ground shakes because of energy released from the earth’s crust. This can damage buildings and cause injuries. Knowing what to do before, during, and after an earthquake is important to stay safe.

Before an Earthquake

Prepare by making an emergency kit with food, water, and first aid supplies. Secure heavy furniture to walls and learn where to take cover. Talk with your family about a meeting place outside your home.

During an Earthquake

If indoors, drop to the ground, take cover under something strong, like a table, and hold on. Stay away from windows to avoid breaking glass.

After an Earthquake

When shaking stops, carefully leave the building. Avoid roads and bridges that might be damaged. Check for injuries and use your emergency supplies if needed. Remember, aftershocks may follow, so stay alert.

250 Words Essay on Earthquake Preparedness

An earthquake is when the ground shakes because of energy released from the earth’s crust. This can happen without warning, so it’s important to be ready at all times.

Make a Plan

First, talk with your family about what to do during an earthquake. Pick a safe place in every room, like under a sturdy table or against an inside wall. Agree on a meeting spot outside your home where everyone will go after the shaking stops.

Emergency Kit

Put together a bag with important things like water, food that won’t go bad, a flashlight, a first-aid kit, and extra batteries. Keep this bag in an easy-to-grab place.

Home Safety

Make your home safer. Secure heavy furniture to the walls and put heavy items on lower shelves. This helps stop things from falling and hurting someone.

Practice Drills

Practice makes perfect. Have earthquake drills with your family. Drop, cover, and hold on! Get under a sturdy table and hold on until the shaking stops.

Learn and Share

Learn more about earthquakes at school or from books. Share what you learn with friends and family so they can be prepared too.

Remember, being ready for an earthquake means knowing what to do before, during, and after it happens. Stay calm and be smart to stay safe.

500 Words Essay on Earthquake Preparedness

An earthquake is what happens when the ground shakes because of energy released from the earth’s crust. This can make buildings fall, roads crack, and cause a lot of harm to people and places. Since we cannot stop earthquakes from happening, it is very important for us to be ready for them.

Why Prepare for Earthquakes

Being prepared for an earthquake can save lives. It means knowing what to do before, during, and after the shaking starts. This can help people stay calm and reduce the chances of getting hurt.

Getting ready before an earthquake means making a plan and having supplies. Families should talk about what to do if an earthquake happens. This includes picking a safe place in every room, like under a strong table, to hide during the shaking. It is also good to practice “Drop, Cover, and Hold On” drills.

People should also have emergency kits with food, water, a flashlight, a first aid kit, and other important things to last for at least three days. It is smart to keep these kits at home, work, and in the car.

Making homes safer is another part of being ready. This means fixing heavy furniture to walls and putting heavy items on lower shelves so they do not fall during an earthquake.

When the ground starts shaking, it is important to “Drop, Cover, and Hold On.” This means getting down on the ground, taking cover under something sturdy, like a table, and holding on until the shaking stops. Staying away from windows and outside doors is also a good idea because they can break.

If someone is outside when an earthquake starts, they should move to an open area away from buildings, trees, and power lines. If in a car, it is best to pull over and stay inside the car until the shaking stops.

After the shaking stops, it is important to be careful because there can be aftershocks, which are smaller earthquakes that happen after the big one. Checking for injuries and making sure it is safe before leaving the safe spot is important. People should also be ready to leave their homes if it is not safe to stay.

Listening to the radio or checking the internet for information from officials can help people know what to do next. If someone smells gas or sees a broken wire, they should tell an adult or call for help but never touch it.

Learning and Sharing Knowledge

It is good for students to learn about earthquake preparedness at school and share what they learn with their families. Teachers can help by talking about earthquakes and doing drills with their students.

In conclusion, being ready for an earthquake is about making plans, having supplies, and knowing what to do when the ground shakes. By preparing, people can feel safer and be able to help others during and after an earthquake. Remember, we cannot control when an earthquake will happen, but we can control how ready we are.

That’s it! I hope the essay helped you.

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Living on an Active Earth: Perspectives on Earthquake Science (2003)

Chapter: 1. the challenge of earthquake science, 1 the challenge of earthquake science.

F ew natural events disrupt human society more than large earth quakes. Civilization depends on a massive “built environment” anchored in the Earth’s active crust, framing a habitat extremely vulnerable to seismic shaking. To cope with the all-too-frequent destruction caused by earthquakes, people have long sought to improve their practical knowledge about where and when such events might occur, and what happens when they do. Science has shown that seismic activity can be understood in terms of a basic machinery of deformation that shapes the face of the planet. Consequently, the pragmatic inquiry into the causes and effects of earthquakes has become increasingly fused with the quest for a more fundamental understanding of the geologically active Earth.

This report surveys all aspects of earthquake science, basic and applied, from ancient times to the present day ( 1 ). Despite rapid progress in the latter part of the twentieth century, the study of earthquakes, like the science of many other complex natural systems, is still in its juvenile stages of exploration and discovery. The brittleness and opacity of the deforming crust have made headway arduous, slower in some respects than in the study of the Earth’s oceans and atmosphere. However, in just the last decade, new instrumental networks for recording seismic waves and geodetic motions have mushroomed across the planet, and new methods for deciphering the geological record of earthquakes have been applied to active faults in many tectonic environments. High-performance computing is now furnishing the means to process massive streams of observations and, through numerical simulation, to quantify many as-

pects of earthquake behavior that are completely resistant to theoretical manipulation and manual calculations. These new research capabilities are transforming the field from a haphazard collection of disciplinary activities to a more coordinated “system-level” science—one that seeks to describe seismic activity not just in terms of individual events, but as an evolutionary process involving dynamic interactions within networks of faults.

The scientific challenge is to leverage these advances into an understanding of earthquake phenomena that is both profound and practical. The research needed to move toward these objectives is the focus of this report. The National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program, the mainstay for federal earthquake research over the past 25 years ( Appendix A ), has opened many areas of fruitful inquiry. New possibilities are arising from the system-level approach that now organizes the study of active faulting and crustal deformation. In appraising research opportunities, the Committee on the Science of Earthquakes has sought to keep in focus the rationale for future earthquake research from four complementary perspectives: (1) the need to improve seismic safety and performance of the built environment, especially in highly exposed urban areas; (2) the requirements for disseminating information rapidly during earthquake crises; (3) the fresh opportunities for exciting basic science, particularly in the context of current research on complex natural systems; and (4) the responsibility for educating people at all levels of society about the active Earth on which they live. These perspectives are summarized below.

1.1 SEISMIC SAFETY AND PERFORMANCE

Earthquakes are hazards primarily because strong ground shaking destroys things that people have constructed—buildings, transportation lifelines, and communication systems ( Figure 1.1 ). Earthquakes are also responsible for secondary, though often very damaging, effects such as soil liquefaction, landslides, tsunamis, and fires. Over the last century, earthquakes have caused an average of 10,000 deaths per year worldwide and hundreds of billions of dollars in economic losses. The United States has seen less seismic devastation than many other countries, primarily owing to its lower population density and superior building construction ( 2 ). Nevertheless, the annualized long-term loss due to U.S. earthquakes is currently estimated at $4.4 billion per year ( 3 ), and this figure appears to be rising rapidly, despite continuing improvements in building codes and structural design ( Figure 1.2 ). California leads with the highest risk, but the problem is truly national: 38 other states face substantial earthquake hazards, including 46 million people in metropolitan areas at moderate to high risk outside of California ( Figure 1.3 ).

FIGURE 1.1 Scene of destruction in Kobe, Japan, from the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake (magnitude 6.9), showing a collapsed section of the Hanshin Express-way. This event killed at least 5500 people, injured more than 26,000, and was responsible for approximately $200 billion in direct economic losses. SOURCE: Pan-Asia Newspaper Alliance.

FIGURE 1.2 Direct economic losses, given in inflation-adjusted 1994 dollars on a logarithmic scale, from some major earthquakes in the United States and Japan. The plot shows a near-exponential rise in the losses caused by urban earthquakes of approximately equal size from 1971 to 1995. SOURCE: Compiled from Office of Technology Assessment, Reducing Earthquake Losses , OTA-ETI-623, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 162 pp., 1995; R.T. Eguchi, J.D. Goltz, C.E. Taylor, S.E. Chang, P.J. Flores, L.A. Johnson, H.A. Seligson, and N.C. Blais, Direct economic losses in the Northridge earthquake: A three-year post-event perspective, Earthquake Spectra , 14, 245-264, 1998; National Institute of Standards and Technology, January 17, 1995 Hyogoken-Nanbu (Kobe) Earthquake: Performance of Structures, Lifelines, and Fire Protection Systems , NIST Special Publication 901, Washington, D.C., 573 pp., July 1996.

FIGURE 1.3 Current annualized earthquake losses (AEL) in millions of dollars, estimated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) on a county-by-county basis using the HAZUS method. Twenty-four states have an AEL greater than $10 million. The total AEL estimated for the entire United States is about $4.4 billion. SOURCE: FEMA, HAZUS 99 Estimated Annualized Earthquake Losses for the United States , FEMA Report 366, Washington, D.C., 33 pp., February 2001.

The prediction of losses from future natural disasters is notoriously uncertain ( 4 ), but more accurate projections are being established with better technical input from earthquake science, engineering, and economics. Scenarios constructed using loss estimation tools have begun to quantify the magnitude of the risk that now faces large population centers in earthquake-prone regions. According to a 1995 report ( 5 ), a repeat of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake would likely result in a total loss of $170 billion to $225 billion (in 1994 dollars). The comparable loss for the 1994 Northridge earthquake, the costliest U.S. disaster on record, was about five times lower. The direct losses in a repeat of the 1923 Kanto earthquake, near Tokyo, would truly be staggering—$2 trillion to $3 trillion— and the indirect economic costs could be much higher ( 6 ). Nevertheless, much of the Pacific Rim and other earthquake-prone regions are urbaniz-

ing rapidly ( Figure 1.4 ) and will face risks similar to those of existing megacities, such as Los Angeles, Istanbul, and Singapore. One expert has speculated that the urbanization in earthquake-prone areas of the developing world may result in a four- to tenfold increase in the annual fatality rate over the next 30 years, reversing a long-standing trend ( 7 ).

The losses expected from future events ( risk ) depend on the population and amount of infrastructure concentrated in a given area ( exposure ) and the vulnerability of the built environment ( fragility ), as well as the hazard itself. The seismic hazard levels in Alaska and California are both high, but California’s exposure is much greater, which yields a much larger total risk ( Figure 1.3 ). The growth in losses charted in Figure 1.2 comes primarily from the increased exposure, especially in urbanizing regions ( 8 ). Exposure can be lowered by a judicious choice of building sites and careful land-use planning; but only by so much—in seismically active regions, all sites face significant hazard. Earthquake risk reduction must thus rely on lowering vulnerability through earthquake-resilient design of new structures and retrofitting or rehabilitating inadequate older structures to improve their seismic safety. Provisions for earthquake design are now an integral part of building codes in most seismically active parts of the United States, although some states with moderate earthquake risk do not have state seismic codes (see Chapter 2 ). Code improvements and related problems of implementation continue to require scientific guidance to take into account regional and local variations in seismic hazards, as well as uncertainties and improvements in hazard estimates ( 9 ).

The fundamental question of how much to invest in seismic safety has become a pressing problem for the national economy. Several hundred billion dollars are currently spent per annum on new construction in seismically active areas of the United States, and about 1 percent of this overall investment is associated with seismic reinforcement ( 10 ). Seismic retrofitting is much more expensive; the costs for unreinforced masonry buildings are typically about 20 percent of new construction, and the values for other building types are comparably high. An alarming example can be found in Los Angeles County, where a recent study showed that more than half of the hospitals are vulnerable to collapse in a strong earthquake. The cost for upgrading these facilities to state-mandated levels of seismic safety has been estimated conservatively at $7 billion to $8 billion, which exceeds the entire assessed value of all hospital property in the county and comes at a time when nearly all hospitals are losing money ( 11 ). Resolving such economic and political issues is at least as difficult as the engineering and science issues, and it illustrates the need for coordinated planning across all aspects of seismic safety. To facilitate planning, understandable earthquake information must be made avail-

FIGURE 1.4 Major cities (1 million to 7 million inhabitants, open triangles) and megacities (more than 8 million inhabitants, solid stars) in the year 2000, relative to the major earthquake belts (shaded regions). These cities, which house approximately 20 percent of the global population, tend to be concentrated in regions of high seismic risk. SOURCE: R. Bilham, Global fatalities in the past 2000 years: Prognosis for the next 30, in Reduction and Predictability of Natural Disasters , J. Rundle, F. Klein, and D. Turcotte, eds., Santa Fe Institute Studies in the Sciences of Complexity, vol. 25, Addison-Wesley, Boston, Mass., pp. 19-31, 1995. Copyright 1995 by Westview Press. Reprinted with permission of Westview Press, a member of Perseus Books, L.L.C.

able to a wide range of professionals, as well as people at large, who ultimately decide what level of public safety is acceptable.

Requirements for a built environment that can withstand seismic shaking have motivated much research on specialized construction materials and advanced engineering methods. As these efforts have matured, engineers have begun to employ more detailed characterization of strong ground motions in structural design and testing. In the process, the coupling between earthquake engineering and science has been strengthened. Engineers are now interested in going beyond the basic life-safety requirement of preventing structural collapse. Demand is growing for techniques to design buildings that can retain specified levels of functionality after earthquake shaking of a specified probability of occurrence (see Chapter 3 ). The success of “performance-based engineering” will depend on two related developments: (1) the formulation of new, more diagnostic measures of structural damage (primarily an engineering task) and (2) more sophisticated treatments of ground shaking, including parameterizations of seismograms that are better suited to the probabilistic prediction of damage states than peak ground acceleration and other classical intensity measures (primarily a seismological task). Thus, collaboration between the earthquake science and engineering communities is essential.

1.2 SEISMIC INFORMATION FOR EMERGENCY RESPONSE

Science and technology can do nothing to prevent or control large earthquakes, and as yet no known method can reliably predict when, where, and how big future tremors will be. However, once an earthquake occurs, advanced seismic information systems can transmit signals from dense networks of seismometers to central processing facilities and, in a fraction of a minute, pinpoint the initial fault rupture (hypocenter) and determine other diagnostic features (e.g., fault orientation). If equipped with strong-motion sensors that accurately record the most violent shaking (when velocity reaches a meter per second and acceleration sometimes exceeds gravity), these automated systems can also deliver accurate maps in nearly real time of where the ground shaking was strong enough to cause significant damage ( Figure 1.5 ). This information about ground shaking can be incorporated into earthquake loss estimation programs such as HAZUS, which provide assessments of potential damage ( 12 ). Such information can be crucial in helping emergency managers and other officials deploy equipment and personnel as quickly as possible to save people trapped in rubble and to reduce further property losses from fires and other secondary effects. Bulletins about the magnitude and boundaries of the shaking can also be channeled through the mass media, reduc-

FIGURE 1.5 A map of the shaking intensity for the 1994 Northridge earthquake derived from peak ground accelerations measured by strong-motion instruments (triangles) in the Los Angeles area. In regions with advanced seismic information systems, maps such as this can be broadcast to emergency management agencies within a few minutes, providing critical information for organizing emergency response. SOURCE: U.S. Geological Survey.

ing public confusion during disasters and allaying fears aroused by minor tremors.

Seismic information systems with the capabilities described above are now operational or under development in high-risk areas such as California, the Pacific Northwest, and the intermountain West, but the delivery of rapid information following earthquakes poses many techno-

logical and scientific challenges. The experience with recording large earthquakes is still fairly thin; with rare exceptions, areas of more moderate risk are currently serviced only by sparse seismographic networks with antiquated instrumentation and uneven capabilities for digital recording and processing. To remedy some of the deficiencies, the U.S. Geological Survey has begun to deploy the Advanced National Seismic System, which will improve regional networks, expand the distribution of strong-motion and building response sensors in the high-risk urban areas, and package and deliver earthquake information automatically (see Chapter 4 ). Research is needed in many aspects of post-event analysis, for example, assimilating data into strong-motion predictions, increasing the reliability of aftershock predictions, and identifying areas of enhanced short-term risk through the development of models of how earthquakes transfer stresses from one fault to another.

With appropriate technology, seismic information systems can be used as earthquake warning systems . Because electronic signals travel much faster than seismic disturbances, it is possible to notify regions away from the epicenter that an earthquake is in progress before any damaging waves arrive. Suboceanic earthquakes sometimes generate tsunamis (sea waves) that can inundate shorelines thousands of kilometers from the source. For example, the great 1964 Alaska earthquake generated tsunamis that killed 17 people along the Oregon-California coast, and tsunamis generated by the 1960 Chile earthquake killed 61 people in Hawaii and 122 people in Japan. These waves travel relatively slowly (500 to 700 kilometers per hour), so post-event predictions of tsunami arrival times and amplitudes can be used to warn coastal communities soon enough to allow for preparation and evacuation. Agencies such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration operate tsunami-warning networks that depend on precise seismic information to function properly ( 13 ). However, how tsunamis are generated by suboceanic earthquakes and how they run up along coastlines are still poorly understood.

Advance warnings of strong motions caused by the fast-moving (2 to 8 kilometers per second) ground waves are more problematic than for tsunamis, because there is so little time for an event to be evaluated and an advisory broadcast through civil defense or other warning systems. The damage zones of large earthquakes usually have radii of 200 kilometers or less, and it takes only 60 to 100 seconds for the most damaging waves (shear and surface waves) to propagate to this distance. Nevertheless, the time is adequate to issue electronic warnings that can initiate emergency shutdowns and other protective actions within power generation, transportation, and computer systems, provided that decisions can be automated reliably (see Chapter 3 ). The implementation of this capability will require seismic information systems that are robust with respect

to regional disruptions in power and communications and methods for making (and aborting) decisions under stressful conditions, in addition to research on the basic problems of rupture dynamics, wave propagation, and site response.

1.3 BASIC GEOSCIENCE

In its broadest sense, the science of earthquakes seeks a comprehensive, physics-based understanding of seismic behavior and associated geological phenomena. While plate tectonics has provided a simple and precise kinematic framework for relating individual earthquakes to geological deformations on a global scale (see Chapter 2 ), its extension to a fully dynamic theory of Earth deformation remains a work in progress. Among the fundamental questions that still lack satisfactory answers are: Why do crustal strains on the Earth tend to localize on major faults, rather than be distributed over broad zones of more continuous deformation, as has been inferred for the surface of Venus? How does brittle crustal deformation couple to the ductile motion of the convecting solid mantle? What physical mechanisms explain the large earthquakes that occur in the descending limbs of mantle convection down to depths of nearly 700 kilometers? How predictable are large earthquakes? Such questions connect the study of earthquakes to many basic aspects of solid-Earth research.

Correspondingly, many disciplines—seismology, tectonic geodesy, earthquake geology, rock mechanics, complex systems theory, and information technology—are producing the conceptual innovations needed for the practical issues of seismic hazard analysis, risk reduction, and rapid emergency response. Fundamental work on elastic wave scattering in fractal media has been applied to prediction of the strong ground motions that damage buildings. The ultraprecise techniques of space geodesy have measured the deformation across the broad zone of faulting that extends from the Wasatch Range in Utah to the Pacific coast, improving constraints on probabilistic earthquake forecasting. The need to predict where earthquakes will occur has inspired novel techniques for deciphering where and when earthquakes have occurred in prehistory. This practical focus has provided new opportunities for basic geological research in the youthful fields of paleoseismology and neotectonics.

Other applications of earthquake science include the study of volcanic seismicity, which has led to improvements in predicting volcanic eruptions, and the detection of nuclear explosions, a strategic capability for the verification of international arms control treaties. The coupling of seismological and archaeological studies in the Middle East has shed light on the role of earthquakes in the rise and fall of ancient urban centers and political systems. Laboratory studies of fault friction and earthquake fracture

mechanics have led to constitutive relations and dynamical models that have found applications in materials engineering. The power-law scaling relations between earthquake frequency and size, combined with the recognition that nearly all of the Earth’s crust may be close to its critical state of failure, have stimulated theories of nonlinear system dynamics ( 14 ).

The fundamental interactions that govern active faulting are distributed over an enormous range of spatial and temporal scales—sequences of great earthquakes on thousand-kilometer faults over hundreds of years are coupled dynamically to deformation processes operating in milliseconds over millimeters. These processes, difficult to study directly in the field, can be replicated in the laboratory only at the lower end of this range. Sampling and in situ observation by trenching, tunneling, and drilling are confined to the outer few kilometers. Understanding the physical processes at the much greater depths where earthquakes typically nucleate depends on the ability to construct models that combine surface observations with seismic imaging and other remote-sensing data.

Earthquakes in nearly all tectonic environments share similar scaling laws (e.g., frequency-magnitude statistics, aftershock decay rates, stress drops), which suggests that some of the most basic aspects of earthquake behavior are universal and not sensitive to the details of deformation processes. However, differing theories have sparked considerable controversy about how small-scale processes such as rock damage and fluid flow are involved in active faulting. A comprehensive theory must integrate earthquake behavior across all dimensions of the problem. This challenge is a primary motivation for the National Science Foundation’s ambitious EarthScope initiative, which will employ four new technologies for observing active deformation in the United States over a wide range of scales ( 15 ).

1.4 EDUCATION

Educating people about earthquakes can effectively reduce human and economic losses during seismic disasters. The pedagogical responsibilities of earthquake science are expanding as concerns about the vulnerability of the built environment increase. The issues encompass the delivery of earthquake information to the public; earthquake-oriented curricula in schools at all levels; the career focus of young researchers, and the transfer of knowledge to engineers, emergency managers, and government officials.

The Internet has greatly enhanced the capability for delivering a wide variety of earthquake information. Many public and private organizations maintain web sites that host a variety of earthquake information services. These sites display up-to-the-minute maps of earthquake epi-

centers and strong motions, describe seismic hazards and damage, offer tips to homeowners about retrofitting and insurance, and make available curricular material. Regional seismic networks and earthquake response organizations update their web sites regularly. The Hector Mine (California) earthquake of October 16, 1999, and the Nisqually (Washington) earthquake of February 28, 2001, were among the first U.S. “cyber-quakes” in the sense that the Internet became the dominant medium for exchanging data and posting results in the minutes and hours following the ruptures ( 16 ).

Information and communication technologies have irrevocably altered how scientists interact with the public in several subtle ways. New tools for digital representation and visualization are available to animate scientific descriptions of earthquakes and present research results in more attractive and intelligible formats. Renderings of numerical simulations now allow people to visualize more readily the complex physical processes on space-time scales too large or small, or places too remote, to be observed directly. Worldwide improvement in communication systems is feeding the public’s interest in global problems. When devastating earthquakes occurred in El Salvador and the Indian province of Gujarat in January 2001, coverage by U.S. broadcast and print media, as well as through the Internet, was quicker and more comprehensive than it had been for most previous, remote earthquakes.

Every effort should be made to educate the public that earthquakes are natural phenomena that cannot be controlled ( 17 ) but can be understood. The goal is to teach people enough about earthquake science for them to become smart users of information and know how to prepare for and react to seismic events. Earthquakes furnish compelling examples of physics and mathematics in real-world action, and research on earthquakes illustrates the process of empirical inquiry and the scientific method in many interesting ways. The silver lining of seismic disruption is perhaps the “teachable moment” when a major earthquake captures public attention and the media are filled with technical explanations. Properly prepared students can learn a lot about natural science from these intense periods of reporting.

The content and methods for teaching earthquake science in primary and secondary schools remain pressing subjects that should engage more scientists involved in basic research. National science education standards recommend that Earth science be taught at all grade levels ( 18 ). For example, students should learn about fossils and rock and soil properties in kindergarten through fourth grade; geologic history and the structure of the Earth in grades 5 through 8; and the origin and evolution of the Earth system in grades 9 through 12. A number of states have adopted these standards, which provide many opportunities for giving students a better

understanding of how the Earth works and how its internal forces are acting to shape their environment.

Researchers tend to be more concerned with higher education. Many four-year colleges and universities offer coursework in Earth science that satisfies the general science requirements for nonmajors. Most of these classes include material on earthquake processes and active tectonics, and they can be quite popular. However, fewer college students are majoring in Earth science ( 19 ). The baccalaureate in this field is rarely an adequate degree, and its status as a pre-professional degree (e.g., premedical or prelaw) has never been high, except as preparation for graduate studies in Earth science ( 20 ). Graduate education, especially at the Ph.D. level, is research oriented and therefore sustained by the migration of young geoscientists into teaching careers at research universities. Earth science needs a healthy program of earthquake research to attract the best candidates.

1.5 PREDICTIVE UNDERSTANDING

The main goal of earthquake research is to learn how to predict the behavior of earthquake systems. This goal drives the science for two distinct reasons. First, society has a compelling strategic need to anticipate earthquake devastation, which is becoming more costly as large urban centers expand in tectonically active regions. In this context, prediction has come to mean the accurate forecasting of the time, place, and size of specific large earthquakes, ideally in a short enough time to allow nearby communities to prepare for a calamity. Three decades ago, many geoscientists thought this type of short-term, event-specific earthquake prediction was right around the corner. However, proposed schemes for short-term earthquake prediction have not proven successful. In particular, no unambiguous signals precursory to large earthquakes have been identified, even in areas such as Japan and California where monitoring capability has improved substantially. Although a categorical statement about the theoretical infeasibilty of event-specific prediction appears to be premature, few seismologists remain optimistic that short-term, event-specific prediction will be feasible in the foreseeable future.

It is true, nevertheless, that many aspects of earthquake behavior can be anticipated with enough precision to be useful in mitigating risk. The long-term potential of near-surface faults to cause future large earthquakes can be assessed by combining geological field studies of previous slippage with seismic and geodetic monitoring of current activity. Seismologists are learning how geological complexity controls the strong ground motion during large earthquakes, and engineers are learning how to predict the effects of seismic waves on buildings, lifelines, and

critical facilities such as large bridges and nuclear power plants. Together they have quantified the long-term expectations for potentially destructive shaking in the form of seismic hazard maps, and they are striving to improve these forecasts by understanding how past earthquakes influence the likelihood of future events. Consideration of slip models along faults is now leading to predictions of site-specific ground motions, needed by engineers for the design of large urban structures that can withstand seismic shaking.

The second reason for seeking a predictive understanding is epistemological and generic to fundamental research on a variety of geosystems, be they localized—like volcanoes, petroleum reservoirs, and groundwater systems—or global—like the oceans and atmosphere. These geosystems are so complex and their underlying physical and chemical processes are so difficult to characterize that the traditional reductionist approach, based on the elucidation of fundamental laws, is incomplete as an investigative method. In the face of such complexity, the ability to routinely extrapolate observable behavior becomes an essential measure of how well a system is understood. Model-based prediction plays an integral role in this type of empiricism as the first step in an iterated cycle of data gathering and analysis, hypothesis testing, and model improvement.

1.6 ORGANIZATION OF THE REPORT

This report summarizes progress in earthquake science and assesses the opportunities for advancement. Although not intended to be exhaustive, the report documents major scientific achievements through extensive references and technical notes. Chapter 2 charts the rise of earthquake science and engineering, introducing the technical concepts and terminology in their historical context. Chapter 3 gives the current view of seismic hazards on a national and global scale and shows how an improved characterization of these hazards can reduce earthquake losses by lessening risk and speeding response. Chapter 4 describes the observational activities and research methods in four major disciplines—seismology, tectonic geodesy, earthquake geology, and rock mechanics—and discusses the advanced technologies being employed to gather new information on the detailed workings of active fault systems. The integration of this information into a predictive, physics-based framework is the subject of Chapter 5 , which lays out key scientific questions in five areas of interdisciplinary research—fault systems, fault-zone processes, rupture dynamics, wave propagation, and seismic hazard analysis. Chapter 6 examines the goals of earthquake research over the next decade and the resources and technological investments needed to achieve these goals in

nine major areas of interest. Federal programs supporting earthquake research and engineering are summarized in Appendix A . Finally, a list of acronyms is given in Appendix B .

The destructive force of earthquakes has stimulated human inquiry since ancient times, yet the scientific study of earthquakes is a surprisingly recent endeavor. Instrumental recordings of earthquakes were not made until the second half of the 19th century, and the primary mechanism for generating seismic waves was not identified until the beginning of the 20th century.

From this recent start, a range of laboratory, field, and theoretical investigations have developed into a vigorous new discipline: the science of earthquakes. As a basic science, it provides a comprehensive understanding of earthquake behavior and related phenomena in the Earth and other terrestrial planets. As an applied science, it provides a knowledge base of great practical value for a global society whose infrastructure is built on the Earth's active crust.

This book describes the growth and origins of earthquake science and identifies research and data collection efforts that will strengthen the scientific and social contributions of this exciting new discipline.

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Home — Essay Samples — Environment — Earthquake — Narrative on Earthquake: An Earth-Shattering Experience

Narrative on Earthquake: an Earth-shattering Experience

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Guest Essay

Trump’s Backers Are Determined Not to Blow It This Time Around

Two woman — one dressed in light blue, the other in black — sit on either side of a chair that has a pillow with “U.S.A.” on it and a flag design with two patches that read “Trump Tribe” and “Trump Tribe Texas.”

By Thomas B. Edsall

Mr. Edsall contributes a weekly column from Washington, D.C., on politics, demographics and inequality.

In a rare display of unity, more than 100 conservative tax-exempt organizations have joined forces in support of Donald Trump and the MAGA agenda, forming a $2 billion-plus political machine.

Together, these organizations are constructing a detailed postelection agenda, lining up prospective appointees and backing Trump in his legal battles.

Most of the work performed by these nonprofit groups is conducted behind closed doors. Unlike traditional political organizations, these groups do not disclose their donors and must reveal only minimal information on expenditures. In many cases, even this minimal information will not be available until after the 2024 election.

Nonprofits like these are able to maintain a cloak of secrecy by positioning themselves as charitable organizations under section 501(c)(3 ) of the tax code or as social welfare organizations under section 501(c)(4 ).

Not only are these tax-exempt organizations attractive to large contributors who want to keep their roles secret; 501(c)(3) groups have an added benefit: Donors can deduct their gifts from their taxable incomes.

The benefits don’t end there. The minimal reporting requirements imposed on political nonprofits lend themselves to self-dealing, particularly the payment of high salaries and consulting fees, and the award of contracts to for-profit companies owned by executives of the charitable groups.

“The growth of these groups is largely flying under the radar,” Sean Westwood , a political scientist at Dartmouth, wrote by email in response to my inquiry. “This level of coordination is unprecedented.”

Theda Skocpol , a professor of government and sociology at Harvard, replying by email to my inquiry, wrote, “These are detailed plans to take full control of various federal departments and agencies from the very start and to use every power available to implement radical ethnonationalist regulations and action plans.”

This activity, Skocpol continued, amounts to a “full prep for an authoritarian takeover, buttressed by the control Trump and Trumpists now have over the G.O.P. and its apparatuses.”

In this drive by the right to shape policy, should Trump win, there are basically three power centers.

The first is made up of groups pieced together by Leonard Leo , a co-chairman of the Federalist Society, renowned for his role in the conservative takeover of the Supreme Court and of many key posts in the federal and state judiciaries.

If cash is the measure, Leo is the heavyweight champion. Two years ago, my Times colleagues Kenneth P. Vogel and Shane Goldmacher disclosed that a little-known Chicago billionaire, Barre Seid , who made his fortune manufacturing electronic equipment, turned $1.6 billion over to the Marble Freedom Trust , a tax-exempt organization created by Leo in 2021, helping to turn it into a powerhouse.

The second nexus of right-wing tax-exempt groups is the alliance clustered on Capitol Hill around the intersection of Third Street Southeast and Independence Avenue — offices and townhouses that fashion themselves as Patriots’ Row .

Former Trump campaign aides, lawyers and executive appointees, including Mark Meadows , Stephen Miller , Edward Corrigan and Cleta Mitchell , run these organizations. After Trump was defeated in 2020, the cash flow to these groups surged.

The third center is coordinated by the Heritage Foundation , which, under the leadership of Kevin D. Roberts , who assumed its presidency in 2021, has become a committed ally of the MAGA movement.

Heritage, in turn, has created Project 2025 in preparation for a potential Trump victory in November. In a statement of purpose, the project declared:

It is not enough for conservatives to win elections. If we are going to rescue the country from the grip of the radical left, we need both a governing agenda and the right people in place, ready to carry this agenda out on Day 1 of the next conservative administration.

There are more than 100 members of Project 2025, and they include not only most of the Patriots’ Row groups but also much of the Christian right and the anti-abortion movement.

In the view of Lawrence Rosenthal , the chairman and founder of the Berkeley Center for Right-Wing Studies, the convergence of so many conservative organizations leading up to the 2024 election marks a reconciliation, albeit partial, between the two major wings of the Republican Party: the more traditional market fundamentalists and the populist nationalists.

“In 2024,” Rosenthal wrote by email,

the free-market fundamentalists are making their peace on a more basic level than simply tax cuts. Their historic long-term goal — rolling back the federal government to pre-New Deal levels — corresponds to the nationalists’ goal of “deconstruction of the administrative state.” This is what the likes of the now thoroughly MAGA-fied Heritage Foundation is putting together. Recasting the administrative state as the “deep state,” a veritable launchpad for conspiracy-mongering innuendo, easily brings the populists along for the ride despite a “What’s the Matter With Kansas”-like abandonment of their own economic interests on the part of a sector of the population particularly dependent on the range of targets like Social Security and Medicare that the administrative-state deconstructors have in their sights. In return the populists are seeing avatars of Christian nationalism in unprecedented roles of political power — to wit, the current speaker of the House.

The populist-nationalist wing has an agenda that “goes beyond what the free-market fundamentalists have had in mind,” Rosenthal continued:

The model here is by now explicitly Orbanism in Hungary — what Viktor Orban personally dubbed “illiberal democracy.” By now, MAGA at all levels — CPAC, media, Congress, Trump himself — has explicitly embraced Orban. Illiberal regimes claim legitimacy through elections but systematically curtail civil liberties and checks and balances, structurally recasting political institutions so as to make their being voted out of office almost unrealizable.

The centerpiece of Leo’s empire of right-wing groups is the Marble Freedom Trust. The trust described its mission in a 2022 report to the I.R.S.: “To maintain and expand human freedom consistent with the values and ideals set forth in the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution of the United States.”

In 2016, according to an April 2023 I.R.S. complaint against Leo filed by the Campaign for Accountability , a liberal reform advocacy group, Leo created a consulting company, BH Group, and in 2020 acquired a major ownership interest in CRC Advisors . Both are for-profit entities based in Virginia.

The Campaign for Accountability’s complaint alleges that “Leo-affiliated nonprofits” paid BH Group and CRC Advisors a total of $50.3 million from 2016 to 2020. During this period, according to the complaint, Leo’s lifestyle changed:

In August 2018, he paid off the 30-year mortgage on the McLean, Va., home, most of which was still outstanding on the payoff date. Later that same year, Leonard Leo bought a $3.3 million summer home with 11 bedrooms in Mount Desert, an affluent seaside village on the coast of Maine, using, in part, a 20-year mortgage of $2,310,000. Leonard Leo paid off the entire balance of that mortgage just one year later in July 2019. In September 2021, Leonard Leo bought a second home in Mount Desert for $1.65 million.

The complaint was based partly on a March 2023 Politico story by Heidi Przybyla. She wrote that her “investigation, based on dozens of financial, property and public records dating from 2000 to 2021, found that Leo’s lifestyle took a lavish turn beginning in 2016,” citing Leo’s purchases of the Maine properties, along with “four new cars, private school tuition for his children, hundreds of thousands of dollars in donations to Catholic causes and a wine locker at Morton’s Steakhouse.”

In October 2023, Przybyla disclosed (also in Politico ) that Leo was refusing to cooperate with an investigation by Brian Schwalb , the attorney general for the District of Columbia, “for potentially misusing nonprofit tax laws for personal enrichment.”

In a study covering more recent data , Accountable US , another liberal reform group, reported that from 2020, when Leo acquired a share of CRC Advisors, to 2022, seven “groups with immediate ties to Leo’s network have made payments totaling at least $69.77 million to CRC Advisors.”

Those figures were confirmed by Bloomberg’s Emily Birnbaum , who reported that “the sums paid to CRC Advisors by seven nonprofit groups have doubled since Leo came aboard as co-owner and chairman in 2020.”

Leo defended the payments, telling Bloomberg that criticism of the money flowing to CRC Advisors is “baseless” and that CRC performs high-quality work. “CRC Advisors employs nearly 100 best-in-class professionals that put its clients’ money to work,” he told Bloomberg.

In the drive to set the stage for a future Trump administration, the second conservative power center is dominated by the Conservative Partnership Institute , which coordinates its own pro-Trump network.

From 2018 to 2020, the Conservative Partnership was a minor player in Washington’s right-wing community. In that period, according to its 990 report to the I.R.S., its revenues totaled $16.9 million. In the next two years, donations shot up to $80.7 million.

Seven executives at the partnership in 2022 made in excess of $300,000 a year, topped by Meadows, Trump’s last White House chief of staff, whose annual compensation at the Conservative Partnership totaled $889,687 in 2022.

The Conservative Partnership and allied groups do not disclose donors, and none of the data on how much they raised and spent in 2023 and 2024 — or the identities of grant recipients — will be available before Nov. 5, 2024, Election Day.

The Conservative Partnership, like many of its sister groups, filed its 990 reports to the I.R.S. for 2020, 2021 and 2022 on Nov. 15 of each following year. If that pattern continues, its reports covering 2023 and 2024 will not be filed until Nov. 15 of the next year.

The partnership lists its address as 300 Independence Avenue Southeast in Washington, a three-story office building on Patriots’ Row that was originally the German-American Building Association.

Groups using the same mailing address include the Center for Renewing America (“God, country and community are at the heart of this agenda”), the Election Integrity Network (“Conservative leaders, organizations, public officials and citizens dedicated to securing the legality of every American vote”), Compass Legal Group , American Creative Network (“We will redefine the future of media-related conservative collaboration”), the American Accountability Foundation (“Exposing the truth behind the people and policies of the Biden administration that threaten the freedoms of the American people”), America First Legal (“Fighting back against lawless executive actions and the radical left”), Citizens for Renewing America and Citizens for Sanity (“To defeat ‘wokeism’ and anti-critical-thinking ideologies that have permeated every sector of our country”).

Since it was formed in 2020, Stephen Miller’s America First Legal foundation has been a case study in rapid growth. In its first year, it raised $6.4 million. In 2021 this rose to $44.4 million and to $50.8 million in 2022.

America First lawyers wrote two of the amicus briefs arguing to the Supreme Court that Trump should be restored to Colorado’s ballot . In one of the briefs , America First defended Trump’s actions and language on Jan. 6, 2021:

President Trump did not “engage in” insurrection. To engage in something is to take an active, personal role in it. Comparisons in modern language abound. When news emerges that nations have “engaged in military exercises,” one expects to read that “ships and planes” have been deployed, not tweets or press releases. Similarly, if someone has been described as “engaging in violence,” one expects that the person being spoken about has himself used force on another — not that he has issued some taunt about force undertaken by a third party. Engaging in a matter and remarking publicly about it are not the same, even with matters as weighty as wars or insurrections.

While the Heritage Foundation had relatively modest revenues of $95.1 million in 2022, according to its I.R.S. filing , its Project 2025 has become an anchor of the MAGA movement.

Trump has said he does not feel bound to accept all of the Project 2025 proposals, but the weight of institutional support from the right and Trump’s lack of interest in detailed planning suggest that those proposals may well shape much of the agenda in the event of a Trump victory.

The authors of Project 2025 want to avoid a repetition of 2017, when Trump took office with scant planning and little notion of who should be appointed to key positions.

Spencer Chretien , an associate director of Project 2025, put this concern delicately in a January 2023 essay published by The American Conservative , pointedly avoiding any criticism of Trump:

In November 2016, American conservatives stood on the verge of greatness. The election of Donald Trump to the presidency was a triumph that offered the best chance to reverse the left’s incessant march of progress for its own sake. Many of the best accomplishments, though, happened only in the last year of the Trump administration, after our political appointees had finally figured out the policies and process of different agencies, and after the right personnel were finally in place.

One function of the project is to put as much ideological muscle as possible behind Trump to ensure that if he wins the White House again, he does not wander afield.

From the vantage point of the right, that muscle is impressive, ranging from Oren Cass’s populist American Compass to Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America , from the tradition-minded American Conservative to the Independent Women’s Forum .

In the foreword to the project’s nearly 1,000-page description of its 2025 agenda, “ Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise ,” Roberts, the president of Heritage, wrote:

This book is the work of the entire conservative movement. As such, the authors express consensus recommendations already forged, especially along four broad fronts that will decide America’s future: 1. Restore the family as the centerpiece of American life and protect our children. 2. Dismantle the administrative state and return self-governance to the American people. 3. Defend our nation’s sovereignty, borders and bounty against global threats. 4. Secure our God-given individual rights to live freely — what our Constitution calls “the blessings of liberty.”

Perhaps the most impressive part of Project 2025 is the detailed and ideologically infused discussion of virtually every federal department and agency, all guided by the goal of instituting conservative policies.

Take the 53-page chapter, including 87 footnotes, focused on the Department of Health and Human Services, written by Roger Severino , the vice president for domestic policy at Heritage. The top priority of the department in January 2025, he wrote, must be “protecting life, conscience and bodily integrity.” The secretary “must ensure that all H.H.S. programs and activities are rooted in a deep respect for innocent human life from Day 1 until natural death: Abortion and euthanasia are not health care.”

Going deeper, Severino contended that the department must flatly reject “harmful identity politics that replaces biological sex with subjective notions of ‘gender identity’ and bases a person’s worth on his or her race, sex or other identities. This destructive dogma, under the guise of ‘equity,’ threatens American’s fundamental liberties as well as the health and well-being of children and adults alike.”

Severino did not stop there. In his view, the department must be in the business of “promoting stable and flourishing married families” because “in the overwhelming number of cases, fathers insulate children from physical and sexual abuse, financial difficulty or poverty, incarceration, teen pregnancy, poor educational outcomes, high school failure and a host of behavioral and psychological problems.”

Regarding the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, in Severino’s analysis:

By statute or regulation, C.D.C. guidance must be prohibited from taking on a prescriptive character. For example, never again should C.D.C. officials be allowed to say in their official capacity that schoolchildren “should be” masked or vaccinated or prohibited from learning in a school building. Such decisions should be left to parents and medical providers.

At the start of the book, Paul Dans , the executive director of Project 2025, pointedly wrote that “it’s not 1980,” when Heritage produced the first “Mandate for Leadership” to guide the incoming administration of Ronald Reagan. Instead, Dans argued, the United States in 2024 is at an apocalyptic moment:

The game has changed. The long march of cultural Marxism through our institutions has come to pass. The federal government is a behemoth, weaponized against American citizens and conservative values, with freedom and liberty under siege as never before. The task at hand to reverse this tide and restore our republic to its original moorings is too great for any one conservative policy shop to spearhead. It requires the collective action of our movement. With the quickening approach of January 2025, we have one chance to get it right.

This time, the conservative movement plans to exercise maximum surveillance over an incoming Trump administration. In other words, there will be no kidding around.

The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips . And here's our email: [email protected] .

Follow the New York Times Opinion section on Facebook , Instagram , TikTok , WhatsApp , X and Threads .

An earlier version of this article misspelled the surname of an associate director of Project 2025. He is Spencer Chretien, not Chretian.

How we handle corrections

Thomas B. Edsall has been a contributor to the Times Opinion section since 2011. His column on strategic and demographic trends in American politics appears every Wednesday. He previously covered politics for The Washington Post. @ edsall

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Living on an Active Earth: Perspectives on Earthquake Science (2003)

1.1 SEISMIC SAFETY AND PERFORMANCE

1.2 SEISMIC INFORMATION FOR EMERGENCY RESPONSE

1.3 BASIC GEOSCIENCE

1.4 EDUCATION

1.5 PREDICTIVE UNDERSTANDING

1.6 ORGANIZATION OF THE REPORT

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