hypothesis testing calculator significance level

P Value from Z Score Calculator

This is very easy: just stick your Z score in the box marked Z score, select your significance level and whether you're testing a one or two-tailed hypothesis (if you're not sure, go with the defaults), then press the button!

If you need to derive a Z score from raw data, you can find a Z test calculator here .

Enter your z score value, and then press the button.

Additional Z Statistic Calculators

If you're interested in using the z statistic for hypothesis testing and the like, then we have a number of other calculators that might help you.

Z-Test Calculator for a Single Sample Z-Test Calculator for 2 Population Proportions Z Score Calculator for a Single Raw Value (Includes z from p )

Critical Value Calculator

Use this calculator for critical values to easily convert a significance level to its corresponding Z value, T score, F-score, or Chi-square value. Outputs the critical region as well. The tool supports one-tailed and two-tailed significance tests / probability values.

Related calculators

• Using the critical value calculator
• What is a critical value?
• T critical value calculation
• Z critical value calculation
• F critical value calculation

    Using the critical value calculator

If you want to perform a statistical test of significance (a.k.a. significance test, statistical significance test), determining the value of the test statistic corresponding to the desired significance level is necessary. You need to know the desired error probability ( p-value threshold , common values are 0.05, 0.01, 0.001) corresponding to the significance level of the test. If you know the significance level in percentages, simply subtract it from 100%. For example, 95% significance results in a probability of 100%-95% = 5% = 0.05 .

Then you need to know the shape of the error distribution of the statistic of interest (not to be mistaken with the distribution of the underlying data!) . Our critical value calculator supports statistics which are either:

• Z -distributed (normally distributed, e.g. absolute difference of means)
• T -distributed (Student's T distribution, usually appropriate for small sample sizes, equivalent to the normal for sample sizes over 30)
• X 2 -distributed ( Chi square distribution, often used in goodness-of-fit tests, but also for tests of homogeneity or independence)
• F -distributed (Fisher-Snedecor distribution), usually used in analysis of variance (ANOVA)

Then, for distributions other than the normal one (Z), you need to know the degrees of freedom . For the F statistic there are two separate degrees of freedom - one for the numerator and one for the denominator.

Finally, to determine a critical region, one needs to know whether they are testing a point null versus a composite alternative (on both sides) or a composite null versus (covering one side of the distribution) a composite alternative (covering the other). Basically, it comes down to whether the inference is going to contain claims regarding the direction of the effect or not. Should one want to claim anything about the direction of the effect, the corresponding null hypothesis is direction as well (one-sided hypothesis).

Depending on the type of test - one-tailed or two-tailed, the calculator will output the critical value or values and the corresponding critical region. For one-sided tests it will output both possible regions, whereas for a two-sided test it will output the union of the two critical regions on the opposite sides of the distribution.

    What is a critical value?

A critical value (or values) is a point on the support of an error distribution which bounds a critical region from above or below. If the statistics falls below or above a critical value (depending on the type of hypothesis, but it has to fall inside the critical region) then a test is declared statistically significant at the corresponding significance level. For example, in a two-tailed Z test with critical values -1.96 and 1.96 (corresponding to 0.05 significance level) the critical regions are from -∞ to -1.96 and from 1.96 to +∞. Therefore, if the statistic falls below -1.96 or above 1.96, the null hypothesis test is statistically significant.

You can think of the critical value as a cutoff point beyond which events are considered rare enough to count as evidence against the specified null hypothesis. It is a value achieved by a distance function with probability equal to or greater than the significance level under the specified null hypothesis. In an error-probabilistic framework, a proper distance function based on a test statistic takes the generic form [1] :

X (read "X bar") is the arithmetic mean of the population baseline or the control, μ 0 is the observed mean / treatment group mean, while σ x is the standard error of the mean (SEM, or standard deviation of the error of the mean).

Here is how it looks in practice when the error is normally distributed (Z distribution) with a one-tailed null and alternative hypotheses and a significance level α set to 0.05:

And here is the same significance level when applied to a point null and a two-tailed alternative hypothesis:

The distance function would vary depending on the distribution of the error: Z, T, F, or Chi-square (X 2 ). The calculation of a particular critical value based on a supplied probability and error distribution is simply a matter of calculating the inverse cumulative probability density function (inverse CPDF) of the respective distribution. This can be a difficult task, most notably for the T distribution [2] .

    T critical value calculation

The T-distribution is often preferred in the social sciences, psychiatry, economics, and other sciences where low sample sizes are a common occurrence. Certain clinical studies also fall under this umbrella. This stems from the fact that for sample sizes over 30 it is practically equivalent to the normal distribution which is easier to work with. It was proposed by William Gosset, a.k.a. Student, in 1908 [3] , which is why it is also referred to as "Student's T distribution".

To find the critical t value, one needs to compute the inverse cumulative PDF of the T distribution. To do that, the significance level and the degrees of freedom need to be known. The degrees of freedom represent the number of values in the final calculation of a statistic that are free to vary whilst the statistic remains fixed at a certain value.

It should be noted that there is not, in fact, a single T-distribution, but there are infinitely many T-distributions, each with a different level of degrees of freedom. Below are some key values of the T-distribution with 1 degree of freedom, assuming a one-tailed T test is to be performed. These are often used as critical values to define rejection regions in hypothesis testing.

    Z critical value calculation

The Z-score is a statistic showing how many standard deviations away from the normal, usually the mean, a given observation is. It is often called just a standard score, z-value, normal score, and standardized variable. A Z critical value is just a particular cutoff in the error distribution of a normally-distributed statistic.

Z critical values are computed by using the inverse cumulative probability density function of the standard normal distribution with a mean (μ) of zero and standard deviation (σ) of one. Below are some commonly encountered probability values (significance levels) and their corresponding Z values for the critical region, assuming a one-tailed hypothesis .

The critical region defined by each of these would span from the Z value to plus infinity for the right-tailed case, and from minus infinity to minus the Z critical value in the left-tailed case. Our calculator for critical value will both find the critical z value(s) and output the corresponding critical regions for you.

Chi Square (Χ 2 ) critical value calculation

Chi square distributed errors are commonly encountered in goodness-of-fit tests and homogeneity tests, but also in tests for independence in contingency tables. Since the distribution is based on the squares of scores, it only contains positive values. Calculating the inverse cumulative PDF of the distribution is required in order to convert a desired probability (significance) to a chi square critical value.

Just like the T and F distributions, there is a different chi square distribution corresponding to different degrees of freedom. Hence, to calculate a Χ 2 critical value one needs to supply the degrees of freedom for the statistic of interest.

    F critical value calculation

F distributed errors are commonly encountered in analysis of variance (ANOVA), which is very common in the social sciences. The distribution, also referred to as the Fisher-Snedecor distribution, only contains positive values, similar to the Χ 2 one. Similar to the T distribution, there is no single F-distribution to speak of. A different F distribution is defined for each pair of degrees of freedom - one for the numerator and one for the denominator.

Calculating the inverse cumulative PDF of the F distribution specified by the two degrees of freedom is required in order to convert a desired probability (significance) to a critical value. There is no simple solution to find a critical value of f and while there are tables, using a calculator is the preferred approach nowadays.

    References

1 Mayo D.G., Spanos A. (2010) – "Error Statistics", in P. S. Bandyopadhyay & M. R. Forster (Eds.), Philosophy of Statistics, (7, 152–198). Handbook of the Philosophy of Science . The Netherlands: Elsevier.

2 Shaw T.W. (2006) – "Sampling Student's T distribution – use of the inverse cumulative distribution function", Journal of Computational Finance 9(4):37-73, DOI:10.21314/JCF.2006.150

3 "Student" [William Sealy Gosset] (1908) - "The probable error of a mean", Biometrika 6(1):1–25. DOI:10.1093/biomet/6.1.1

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If you'd like to cite this online calculator resource and information as provided on the page, you can use the following citation: Georgiev G.Z., "Critical Value Calculator" , [online] Available at: https://www.gigacalculator.com/calculators/critical-value-calculator.php URL [Accessed Date: 10 Apr, 2024].

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Hypothesis Testing Calculator

Navigating hypothesis testing: unveiling the potential of the hypothesis testing calculator.

Embarking on the journey of statistical exploration, hypothesis testing stands out as an indispensable method for informed decision-making and drawing meaningful conclusions from data. Whether you find yourself in the academic realm, engaged in research endeavors, or navigating the professional landscape, having a trustworthy Hypothesis Testing Calculator in your statistical toolkit can prove to be a game-changer. Let’s delve into the intricacies of hypothesis testing and uncover how this calculator can be your ally in statistical analyses.

Demystifying Hypothesis Testing:

Null Hypothesis (H0): Positioned as the default assumption, the null hypothesis asserts the absence of any significant difference or effect and is commonly represented as H0.

Alternative Hypothesis (Ha): In direct contradiction to the null hypothesis, the alternative hypothesis posits the existence of a noteworthy difference or effect, denoted as Ha.

Significance Level (α): Acting as the predetermined threshold, typically set at 0.05 or 5%, the significance level plays a pivotal role in determining statistical significance. Should the calculated p-value fall below α, the null hypothesis is rejected.

p-value: Representing the likelihood of observing the results, or more extreme outcomes, under the assumption of the null hypothesis being true, a smaller p-value suggests the unlikelihood of the results occurring by chance.

Features that Define the Hypothesis Testing Calculator:

Input Parameters: The calculator demands input of sample data, selection of the test type (e.g., t-test, chi-square test), specification of null and alternative hypotheses, and determination of the significance level.

Calculations: Once armed with the requisite data and parameters, the calculator diligently executes statistical tests and computations. The output encompasses crucial details like the test statistic, degrees of freedom, and the all-important p-value.

Interpretation: Armed with the results, the calculator aids in the decision-making process, guiding whether to reject or accept the null hypothesis. An interpretation of the findings is provided, playing a pivotal role in drawing insightful conclusions.

Visual Representation: Some calculators go the extra mile by offering visual aids such as graphs or charts, facilitating a deeper understanding of data distribution and test outcomes.

Unveiling the Significance of the Hypothesis Testing Calculator:

In Scientific Research: Researchers spanning diverse fields leverage hypothesis testing to validate their hypotheses, thereby extracting meaningful insights from data.

In Quality Control: Industries rely on hypothesis testing as a quality assurance mechanism, ensuring the consistency and excellence of products and processes.

In Medical Studies: Within the realm of medical research, hypothesis testing serves as a critical tool for evaluating the effectiveness of treatments or interventions.

In Academics: Both students and educators find value in hypothesis testing as an educational tool, enabling the comprehension of statistical concepts and the conduct of experiments.

In Data-Driven Decision-Making: Businesses, keen on making decisions grounded in data, turn to hypothesis testing to navigate choices such as launching a new product based on comprehensive market research.

Concluding Insights:

The Hypothesis Testing Calculator emerges as a formidable ally, simplifying intricate statistical analyses and fostering data-driven decision-making. Whether you are in the midst of experimental undertakings, scrutinizing survey data, or overseeing quality control protocols, a solid understanding of hypothesis testing coupled with the use of this calculator empowers you to make well-informed choices. In doing so, you not only contribute to evidence-based research but also play a pivotal role in shaping decision-making processes across various domains.

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Understanding Hypothesis Tests: Significance Levels (Alpha) and P values in Statistics

Topics: Hypothesis Testing , Statistics

What do significance levels and P values mean in hypothesis tests? What is statistical significance anyway? In this post, I’ll continue to focus on concepts and graphs to help you gain a more intuitive understanding of how hypothesis tests work in statistics.

To bring it to life, I’ll add the significance level and P value to the graph in my previous post in order to perform a graphical version of the 1 sample t-test. It’s easier to understand when you can see what statistical significance truly means!

Here’s where we left off in my last post . We want to determine whether our sample mean (330.6) indicates that this year's average energy cost is significantly different from last year’s average energy cost of $260.

The probability distribution plot above shows the distribution of sample means we’d obtain under the assumption that the null hypothesis is true (population mean = 260) and we repeatedly drew a large number of random samples.

I left you with a question: where do we draw the line for statistical significance on the graph? Now we'll add in the significance level and the P value, which are the decision-making tools we'll need.

We'll use these tools to test the following hypotheses:

• Null hypothesis: The population mean equals the hypothesized mean (260).
• Alternative hypothesis: The population mean differs from the hypothesized mean (260).

What Is the Significance Level (Alpha)?

The significance level, also denoted as alpha or α, is the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true. For example, a significance level of 0.05 indicates a 5% risk of concluding that a difference exists when there is no actual difference.

These types of definitions can be hard to understand because of their technical nature. A picture makes the concepts much easier to comprehend!

The significance level determines how far out from the null hypothesis value we'll draw that line on the graph. To graph a significance level of 0.05, we need to shade the 5% of the distribution that is furthest away from the null hypothesis.

In the graph above, the two shaded areas are equidistant from the null hypothesis value and each area has a probability of 0.025, for a total of 0.05. In statistics, we call these shaded areas the critical region for a two-tailed test. If the population mean is 260, we’d expect to obtain a sample mean that falls in the critical region 5% of the time. The critical region defines how far away our sample statistic must be from the null hypothesis value before we can say it is unusual enough to reject the null hypothesis.

Our sample mean (330.6) falls within the critical region, which indicates it is statistically significant at the 0.05 level.

We can also see if it is statistically significant using the other common significance level of 0.01.

The two shaded areas each have a probability of 0.005, which adds up to a total probability of 0.01. This time our sample mean does not fall within the critical region and we fail to reject the null hypothesis. This comparison shows why you need to choose your significance level before you begin your study. It protects you from choosing a significance level because it conveniently gives you significant results!

Thanks to the graph, we were able to determine that our results are statistically significant at the 0.05 level without using a P value. However, when you use the numeric output produced by statistical software , you’ll need to compare the P value to your significance level to make this determination.

Ready for a demo of Minitab Statistical Software? Just ask! 

What Are P values?

P-values are the probability of obtaining an effect at least as extreme as the one in your sample data, assuming the truth of the null hypothesis.

This definition of P values, while technically correct, is a bit convoluted. It’s easier to understand with a graph!

To graph the P value for our example data set, we need to determine the distance between the sample mean and the null hypothesis value (330.6 - 260 = 70.6). Next, we can graph the probability of obtaining a sample mean that is at least as extreme in both tails of the distribution (260 +/- 70.6).

In the graph above, the two shaded areas each have a probability of 0.01556, for a total probability 0.03112. This probability represents the likelihood of obtaining a sample mean that is at least as extreme as our sample mean in both tails of the distribution if the population mean is 260. That’s our P value!

When a P value is less than or equal to the significance level, you reject the null hypothesis. If we take the P value for our example and compare it to the common significance levels, it matches the previous graphical results. The P value of 0.03112 is statistically significant at an alpha level of 0.05, but not at the 0.01 level.

If we stick to a significance level of 0.05, we can conclude that the average energy cost for the population is greater than 260.

A common mistake is to interpret the P-value as the probability that the null hypothesis is true. To understand why this interpretation is incorrect, please read my blog post  How to Correctly Interpret P Values .

Discussion about Statistically Significant Results

A hypothesis test evaluates two mutually exclusive statements about a population to determine which statement is best supported by the sample data. A test result is statistically significant when the sample statistic is unusual enough relative to the null hypothesis that we can reject the null hypothesis for the entire population. “Unusual enough” in a hypothesis test is defined by:

• The assumption that the null hypothesis is true—the graphs are centered on the null hypothesis value.
• The significance level—how far out do we draw the line for the critical region?
• Our sample statistic—does it fall in the critical region?

Keep in mind that there is no magic significance level that distinguishes between the studies that have a true effect and those that don’t with 100% accuracy. The common alpha values of 0.05 and 0.01 are simply based on tradition. For a significance level of 0.05, expect to obtain sample means in the critical region 5% of the time when the null hypothesis is true . In these cases, you won’t know that the null hypothesis is true but you’ll reject it because the sample mean falls in the critical region. That’s why the significance level is also referred to as an error rate!

This type of error doesn’t imply that the experimenter did anything wrong or require any other unusual explanation. The graphs show that when the null hypothesis is true, it is possible to obtain these unusual sample means for no reason other than random sampling error. It’s just luck of the draw.

Significance levels and P values are important tools that help you quantify and control this type of error in a hypothesis test. Using these tools to decide when to reject the null hypothesis increases your chance of making the correct decision.

If you like this post, you might want to read the other posts in this series that use the same graphical framework:

• Previous: Why We Need to Use Hypothesis Tests
• Next: Confidence Intervals and Confidence Levels

If you'd like to see how I made these graphs, please read: How to Create a Graphical Version of the 1-sample t-Test .

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An Easy Introduction to Statistical Significance (With Examples)

Published on January 7, 2021 by Pritha Bhandari . Revised on June 22, 2023.

If a result is statistically significant , that means it’s unlikely to be explained solely by chance or random factors. In other words, a statistically significant result has a very low chance of occurring if there were no true effect in a research study.

The p value , or probability value, tells you the statistical significance of a finding. In most studies, a p value of 0.05 or less is considered statistically significant, but this threshold can also be set higher or lower.

Table of contents

How do you test for statistical significance, what is a significance level, problems with relying on statistical significance, other types of significance in research, other interesting articles, frequently asked questions about statistical significance.

In quantitative research , data are analyzed through null hypothesis significance testing, or hypothesis testing. This is a formal procedure for assessing whether a relationship between variables or a difference between groups is statistically significant.

Null and alternative hypotheses

To begin, research predictions are rephrased into two main hypotheses: the null and alternative hypothesis .

• A null hypothesis ( H 0 ) always predicts no true effect, no relationship between variables , or no difference between groups.
• An alternative hypothesis ( H a or H 1 ) states your main prediction of a true effect, a relationship between variables, or a difference between groups.

Hypothesis testin g always starts with the assumption that the null hypothesis is true. Using this procedure, you can assess the likelihood (probability) of obtaining your results under this assumption. Based on the outcome of the test, you can reject or retain the null hypothesis.

• H 0 : There is no difference in happiness between actively smiling and not smiling.
• H a : Actively smiling leads to more happiness than not smiling.

Test statistics and p values

Every statistical test produces:

• A test statistic that indicates how closely your data match the null hypothesis.
• A corresponding p value that tells you the probability of obtaining this result if the null hypothesis is true.

The p value determines statistical significance. An extremely low p value indicates high statistical significance, while a high p value means low or no statistical significance.

Next, you perform a t test to see whether actively smiling leads to more happiness. Using the difference in average happiness between the two groups, you calculate:

• a t value (the test statistic) that tells you how much the sample data differs from the null hypothesis,
• a p value showing the likelihood of finding this result if the null hypothesis is true.

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The significance level , or alpha (α), is a value that the researcher sets in advance as the threshold for statistical significance. It is the maximum risk of making a false positive conclusion ( Type I error ) that you are willing to accept .

In a hypothesis test, the  p value is compared to the significance level to decide whether to reject the null hypothesis.

• If the p value is  higher than the significance level, the null hypothesis is not refuted, and the results are not statistically significant .
• If the p value is lower than the significance level, the results are interpreted as refuting the null hypothesis and reported as statistically significant .

Usually, the significance level is set to 0.05 or 5%. That means your results must have a 5% or lower chance of occurring under the null hypothesis to be considered statistically significant.

The significance level can be lowered for a more conservative test. That means an effect has to be larger to be considered statistically significant.

The significance level may also be set higher for significance testing in non-academic marketing or business contexts. This makes the study less rigorous and increases the probability of finding a statistically significant result.

As best practice, you should set a significance level before you begin your study. Otherwise, you can easily manipulate your results to match your research predictions.

It’s important to note that hypothesis testing can only show you whether or not to reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative hypothesis. It can never “prove” the null hypothesis, because the lack of a statistically significant effect doesn’t mean that absolutely no effect exists.

When reporting statistical significance, include relevant descriptive statistics about your data (e.g., means and standard deviations ) as well as the test statistic and p value.

There are various critiques of the concept of statistical significance and how it is used in research.

Researchers classify results as statistically significant or non-significant using a conventional threshold that lacks any theoretical or practical basis. This means that even a tiny 0.001 decrease in a p value can convert a research finding from statistically non-significant to significant with almost no real change in the effect.

On its own, statistical significance may also be misleading because it’s affected by sample size. In extremely large samples , you’re more likely to obtain statistically significant results, even if the effect is actually small or negligible in the real world. This means that small effects are often exaggerated if they meet the significance threshold, while interesting results are ignored when they fall short of meeting the threshold.

The strong emphasis on statistical significance has led to a serious publication bias and replication crisis in the social sciences and medicine over the last few decades. Results are usually only published in academic journals if they show statistically significant results—but statistically significant results often can’t be reproduced in high quality replication studies.

As a result, many scientists call for retiring statistical significance as a decision-making tool in favor of more nuanced approaches to interpreting results.

That’s why APA guidelines advise reporting not only p values but also  effect sizes and confidence intervals wherever possible to show the real world implications of a research outcome.

Aside from statistical significance, clinical significance and practical significance are also important research outcomes.

Practical significance shows you whether the research outcome is important enough to be meaningful in the real world. It’s indicated by the effect size of the study.

Clinical significance is relevant for intervention and treatment studies. A treatment is considered clinically significant when it tangibly or substantially improves the lives of patients.

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Statistical significance is a term used by researchers to state that it is unlikely their observations could have occurred under the null hypothesis of a statistical test . Significance is usually denoted by a p -value , or probability value.

Statistical significance is arbitrary – it depends on the threshold, or alpha value, chosen by the researcher. The most common threshold is p < 0.05, which means that the data is likely to occur less than 5% of the time under the null hypothesis .

When the p -value falls below the chosen alpha value, then we say the result of the test is statistically significant.

A p -value , or probability value, is a number describing how likely it is that your data would have occurred under the null hypothesis of your statistical test .

P -values are usually automatically calculated by the program you use to perform your statistical test. They can also be estimated using p -value tables for the relevant test statistic .

P -values are calculated from the null distribution of the test statistic. They tell you how often a test statistic is expected to occur under the null hypothesis of the statistical test, based on where it falls in the null distribution.

If the test statistic is far from the mean of the null distribution, then the p -value will be small, showing that the test statistic is not likely to have occurred under the null hypothesis.

No. The p -value only tells you how likely the data you have observed is to have occurred under the null hypothesis .

If the p -value is below your threshold of significance (typically p < 0.05), then you can reject the null hypothesis, but this does not necessarily mean that your alternative hypothesis is true.

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Critical Value Calculator

How to use critical value calculator, what is a critical value, critical value definition, how to calculate critical values, z critical values, t critical values, chi-square critical values (χ²), f critical values, behind the scenes of the critical value calculator.

Welcome to the critical value calculator! Here you can quickly determine the critical value(s) for two-tailed tests, as well as for one-tailed tests. It works for most common distributions in statistical testing: the standard normal distribution N(0,1) (that is when you have a Z-score), t-Student, chi-square, and F-distribution .

What is a critical value? And what is the critical value formula? Scroll down – we provide you with the critical value definition and explain how to calculate critical values in order to use them to construct rejection regions (also known as critical regions).

The critical value calculator is your go-to tool for swiftly determining critical values in statistical tests, be it one-tailed or two-tailed. To effectively use the calculator, follow these steps:

In the first field, input the distribution of your test statistic under the null hypothesis: is it a standard normal N (0,1), t-Student, chi-squared, or Snedecor's F? If you are not sure, check the sections below devoted to those distributions, and try to localize the test you need to perform.

In the field What type of test? choose the alternative hypothesis : two-tailed, right-tailed, or left-tailed.

If needed, specify the degrees of freedom of the test statistic's distribution. If you need more clarification, check the description of the test you are performing. You can learn more about the meaning of this quantity in statistics from the degrees of freedom calculator .

Set the significance level, α \alpha α . By default, we pre-set it to the most common value, 0.05, but you can adjust it to your needs.

The critical value calculator will display your critical value(s) and the rejection region(s).

Click the advanced mode if you need to increase the precision with which the critical values are computed.

For example, let's envision a scenario where you are conducting a one-tailed hypothesis test using a t-Student distribution with 15 degrees of freedom. You have opted for a right-tailed test and set a significance level (α) of 0.05. The results indicate that the critical value is 1.7531, and the critical region is (1.7531, ∞). This implies that if your test statistic exceeds 1.7531, you will reject the null hypothesis at the 0.05 significance level.

👩‍🏫 Want to learn more about critical values? Keep reading!

In hypothesis testing, critical values are one of the two approaches which allow you to decide whether to retain or reject the null hypothesis. The other approach is to calculate the p-value (for example, using the p-value calculator ).

The critical value approach consists of checking if the value of the test statistic generated by your sample belongs to the so-called rejection region , or critical region , which is the region where the test statistic is highly improbable to lie . A critical value is a cut-off value (or two cut-off values in the case of a two-tailed test) that constitutes the boundary of the rejection region(s). In other words, critical values divide the scale of your test statistic into the rejection region and the non-rejection region.

Once you have found the rejection region, check if the value of the test statistic generated by your sample belongs to it :

• If so, it means that you can reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis; and
• If not, then there is not enough evidence to reject H 0 .

But how to calculate critical values? First of all, you need to set a significance level , α \alpha α , which quantifies the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is actually correct. The choice of α is arbitrary; in practice, we most often use a value of 0.05 or 0.01. Critical values also depend on the alternative hypothesis you choose for your test , elucidated in the next section .

To determine critical values, you need to know the distribution of your test statistic under the assumption that the null hypothesis holds. Critical values are then points with the property that the probability of your test statistic assuming values at least as extreme at those critical values is equal to the significance level α . Wow, quite a definition, isn't it? Don't worry, we'll explain what it all means.

First, let us point out it is the alternative hypothesis that determines what "extreme" means. In particular, if the test is one-sided, then there will be just one critical value; if it is two-sided, then there will be two of them: one to the left and the other to the right of the median value of the distribution.

Critical values can be conveniently depicted as the points with the property that the area under the density curve of the test statistic from those points to the tails is equal to α \alpha α :

Left-tailed test: the area under the density curve from the critical value to the left is equal to α \alpha α ;

Right-tailed test: the area under the density curve from the critical value to the right is equal to α \alpha α ; and

Two-tailed test: the area under the density curve from the left critical value to the left is equal to α / 2 \alpha/2 α /2 , and the area under the curve from the right critical value to the right is equal to α / 2 \alpha/2 α /2 as well; thus, total area equals α \alpha α .

As you can see, finding the critical values for a two-tailed test with significance α \alpha α boils down to finding both one-tailed critical values with a significance level of α / 2 \alpha/2 α /2 .

The formulae for the critical values involve the quantile function , Q Q Q , which is the inverse of the cumulative distribution function ( c d f \mathrm{cdf} cdf ) for the test statistic distribution (calculated under the assumption that H 0 holds!): Q = c d f − 1 Q = \mathrm{cdf}^{-1} Q = cdf − 1 .

Once we have agreed upon the value of α \alpha α , the critical value formulae are the following:

• Left-tailed test :
• Right-tailed test :
• Two-tailed test :

In the case of a distribution symmetric about 0 , the critical values for the two-tailed test are symmetric as well:

Unfortunately, the probability distributions that are the most widespread in hypothesis testing have somewhat complicated c d f \mathrm{cdf} cdf formulae. To find critical values by hand, you would need to use specialized software or statistical tables. In these cases, the best option is, of course, our critical value calculator! 😁

Use the Z (standard normal) option if your test statistic follows (at least approximately) the standard normal distribution N(0,1) .

In the formulae below, u u u denotes the quantile function of the standard normal distribution N(0,1):

Left-tailed Z critical value: u ( α ) u(\alpha) u ( α )

Right-tailed Z critical value: u ( 1 − α ) u(1-\alpha) u ( 1 − α )

Two-tailed Z critical value: ± u ( 1 − α / 2 ) \pm u(1- \alpha/2) ± u ( 1 − α /2 )

Check out Z-test calculator to learn more about the most common Z-test used on the population mean. There are also Z-tests for the difference between two population means, in particular, one between two proportions.

Use the t-Student option if your test statistic follows the t-Student distribution . This distribution is similar to N(0,1) , but its tails are fatter – the exact shape depends on the number of degrees of freedom . If this number is large (>30), which generically happens for large samples, then the t-Student distribution is practically indistinguishable from N(0,1). Check our t-statistic calculator to compute the related test statistic.

In the formulae below, Q t , d Q_{\text{t}, d} Q t , d ​ is the quantile function of the t-Student distribution with d d d degrees of freedom:

Left-tailed t critical value: Q t , d ( α ) Q_{\text{t}, d}(\alpha) Q t , d ​ ( α )

Right-tailed t critical value: Q t , d ( 1 − α ) Q_{\text{t}, d}(1 - \alpha) Q t , d ​ ( 1 − α )

Two-tailed t critical values: ± Q t , d ( 1 − α / 2 ) \pm Q_{\text{t}, d}(1 - \alpha/2) ± Q t , d ​ ( 1 − α /2 )

Visit the t-test calculator to learn more about various t-tests: the one for a population mean with an unknown population standard deviation , those for the difference between the means of two populations (with either equal or unequal population standard deviations), as well as about the t-test for paired samples .

Use the χ² (chi-square) option when performing a test in which the test statistic follows the χ²-distribution .

You need to determine the number of degrees of freedom of the χ²-distribution of your test statistic – below, we list them for the most commonly used χ²-tests.

Here we give the formulae for chi square critical values; Q χ 2 , d Q_{\chi^2, d} Q χ 2 , d ​ is the quantile function of the χ²-distribution with d d d degrees of freedom:

Left-tailed χ² critical value: Q χ 2 , d ( α ) Q_{\chi^2, d}(\alpha) Q χ 2 , d ​ ( α )

Right-tailed χ² critical value: Q χ 2 , d ( 1 − α ) Q_{\chi^2, d}(1 - \alpha) Q χ 2 , d ​ ( 1 − α )

Two-tailed χ² critical values: Q χ 2 , d ( α / 2 ) Q_{\chi^2, d}(\alpha/2) Q χ 2 , d ​ ( α /2 ) and Q χ 2 , d ( 1 − α / 2 ) Q_{\chi^2, d}(1 - \alpha/2) Q χ 2 , d ​ ( 1 − α /2 )

Several different tests lead to a χ²-score:

Goodness-of-fit test : does the empirical distribution agree with the expected distribution?

This test is right-tailed . Its test statistic follows the χ²-distribution with k − 1 k - 1 k − 1 degrees of freedom, where k k k is the number of classes into which the sample is divided.

Independence test : is there a statistically significant relationship between two variables?

This test is also right-tailed , and its test statistic is computed from the contingency table. There are ( r − 1 ) ( c − 1 ) (r - 1)(c - 1) ( r − 1 ) ( c − 1 ) degrees of freedom, where r r r is the number of rows, and c c c is the number of columns in the contingency table.

Test for the variance of normally distributed data : does this variance have some pre-determined value?

This test can be one- or two-tailed! Its test statistic has the χ²-distribution with n − 1 n - 1 n − 1 degrees of freedom, where n n n is the sample size.

Finally, choose F (Fisher-Snedecor) if your test statistic follows the F-distribution . This distribution has a pair of degrees of freedom .

Let us see how those degrees of freedom arise. Assume that you have two independent random variables, X X X and Y Y Y , that follow χ²-distributions with d 1 d_1 d 1 ​ and d 2 d_2 d 2 ​ degrees of freedom, respectively. If you now consider the ratio ( X d 1 ) : ( Y d 2 ) (\frac{X}{d_1}):(\frac{Y}{d_2}) ( d 1 ​ X ​ ) : ( d 2 ​ Y ​ ) , it turns out it follows the F-distribution with ( d 1 , d 2 ) (d_1, d_2) ( d 1 ​ , d 2 ​ ) degrees of freedom. That's the reason why we call d 1 d_1 d 1 ​ and d 2 d_2 d 2 ​ the numerator and denominator degrees of freedom , respectively.

In the formulae below, Q F , d 1 , d 2 Q_{\text{F}, d_1, d_2} Q F , d 1 ​ , d 2 ​ ​ stands for the quantile function of the F-distribution with ( d 1 , d 2 ) (d_1, d_2) ( d 1 ​ , d 2 ​ ) degrees of freedom:

Left-tailed F critical value: Q F , d 1 , d 2 ( α ) Q_{\text{F}, d_1, d_2}(\alpha) Q F , d 1 ​ , d 2 ​ ​ ( α )

Right-tailed F critical value: Q F , d 1 , d 2 ( 1 − α ) Q_{\text{F}, d_1, d_2}(1 - \alpha) Q F , d 1 ​ , d 2 ​ ​ ( 1 − α )

Two-tailed F critical values: Q F , d 1 , d 2 ( α / 2 ) Q_{\text{F}, d_1, d_2}(\alpha/2) Q F , d 1 ​ , d 2 ​ ​ ( α /2 ) and Q F , d 1 , d 2 ( 1 − α / 2 ) Q_{\text{F}, d_1, d_2}(1 -\alpha/2) Q F , d 1 ​ , d 2 ​ ​ ( 1 − α /2 )

Here we list the most important tests that produce F-scores: each of them is right-tailed .

ANOVA : tests the equality of means in three or more groups that come from normally distributed populations with equal variances. There are ( k − 1 , n − k ) (k - 1, n - k) ( k − 1 , n − k ) degrees of freedom, where k k k is the number of groups, and n n n is the total sample size (across every group).

Overall significance in regression analysis . The test statistic has ( k − 1 , n − k ) (k - 1, n - k) ( k − 1 , n − k ) degrees of freedom, where n n n is the sample size, and k k k is the number of variables (including the intercept).

Compare two nested regression models . The test statistic follows the F-distribution with ( k 2 − k 1 , n − k 2 ) (k_2 - k_1, n - k_2) ( k 2 ​ − k 1 ​ , n − k 2 ​ ) degrees of freedom, where k 1 k_1 k 1 ​ and k 2 k_2 k 2 ​ are the number of variables in the smaller and bigger models, respectively, and n n n is the sample size.

The equality of variances in two normally distributed populations . There are ( n − 1 , m − 1 ) (n - 1, m - 1) ( n − 1 , m − 1 ) degrees of freedom, where n n n and m m m are the respective sample sizes.

I'm Anna, the mastermind behind the critical value calculator and a PhD in mathematics from Jagiellonian University .

The idea for creating the tool originated from my experiences in teaching and research. Recognizing the need for a tool that simplifies the critical value determination process across various statistical distributions, I built a user-friendly calculator accessible to both students and professionals. After publishing the tool, I soon found myself using the calculator in my research and as a teaching aid.

Trust in this calculator is paramount to me. Each tool undergoes a rigorous review process , with peer-reviewed insights from experts and meticulous proofreading by native speakers. This commitment to accuracy and reliability ensures that users can be confident in the content. Please check the Editorial Policies page for more details on our standards.

What is a Z critical value?

A Z critical value is the value that defines the critical region in hypothesis testing when the test statistic follows the standard normal distribution . If the value of the test statistic falls into the critical region, you should reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis.

How do I calculate Z critical value?

To find a Z critical value for a given confidence level α :

Check if you perform a one- or two-tailed test .

For a one-tailed test:

Left -tailed: critical value is the α -th quantile of the standard normal distribution N(0,1).

Right -tailed: critical value is the (1-α) -th quantile.

Two-tailed test: critical value equals ±(1-α/2) -th quantile of N(0,1).

No quantile tables ? Use CDF tables! (The quantile function is the inverse of the CDF.)

Verify your answer with an online critical value calculator.

Is a t critical value the same as Z critical value?

In theory, no . In practice, very often, yes . The t-Student distribution is similar to the standard normal distribution, but it is not the same . However, if the number of degrees of freedom (which is, roughly speaking, the size of your sample) is large enough (>30), then the two distributions are practically indistinguishable , and so the t critical value has practically the same value as the Z critical value.

What is the Z critical value for 95% confidence?

The Z critical value for a 95% confidence interval is:

• 1.96 for a two-tailed test;
• 1.64 for a right-tailed test; and
• -1.64 for a left-tailed test.

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Hypothesis Testing (cont...)

Hypothesis testing, the null and alternative hypothesis.

In order to undertake hypothesis testing you need to express your research hypothesis as a null and alternative hypothesis. The null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis are statements regarding the differences or effects that occur in the population. You will use your sample to test which statement (i.e., the null hypothesis or alternative hypothesis) is most likely (although technically, you test the evidence against the null hypothesis). So, with respect to our teaching example, the null and alternative hypothesis will reflect statements about all statistics students on graduate management courses.

The null hypothesis is essentially the "devil's advocate" position. That is, it assumes that whatever you are trying to prove did not happen ( hint: it usually states that something equals zero). For example, the two different teaching methods did not result in different exam performances (i.e., zero difference). Another example might be that there is no relationship between anxiety and athletic performance (i.e., the slope is zero). The alternative hypothesis states the opposite and is usually the hypothesis you are trying to prove (e.g., the two different teaching methods did result in different exam performances). Initially, you can state these hypotheses in more general terms (e.g., using terms like "effect", "relationship", etc.), as shown below for the teaching methods example:

Depending on how you want to "summarize" the exam performances will determine how you might want to write a more specific null and alternative hypothesis. For example, you could compare the mean exam performance of each group (i.e., the "seminar" group and the "lectures-only" group). This is what we will demonstrate here, but other options include comparing the distributions , medians , amongst other things. As such, we can state:

Now that you have identified the null and alternative hypotheses, you need to find evidence and develop a strategy for declaring your "support" for either the null or alternative hypothesis. We can do this using some statistical theory and some arbitrary cut-off points. Both these issues are dealt with next.

Significance levels

The level of statistical significance is often expressed as the so-called p -value . Depending on the statistical test you have chosen, you will calculate a probability (i.e., the p -value) of observing your sample results (or more extreme) given that the null hypothesis is true . Another way of phrasing this is to consider the probability that a difference in a mean score (or other statistic) could have arisen based on the assumption that there really is no difference. Let us consider this statement with respect to our example where we are interested in the difference in mean exam performance between two different teaching methods. If there really is no difference between the two teaching methods in the population (i.e., given that the null hypothesis is true), how likely would it be to see a difference in the mean exam performance between the two teaching methods as large as (or larger than) that which has been observed in your sample?

So, you might get a p -value such as 0.03 (i.e., p = .03). This means that there is a 3% chance of finding a difference as large as (or larger than) the one in your study given that the null hypothesis is true. However, you want to know whether this is "statistically significant". Typically, if there was a 5% or less chance (5 times in 100 or less) that the difference in the mean exam performance between the two teaching methods (or whatever statistic you are using) is as different as observed given the null hypothesis is true, you would reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis. Alternately, if the chance was greater than 5% (5 times in 100 or more), you would fail to reject the null hypothesis and would not accept the alternative hypothesis. As such, in this example where p = .03, we would reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis. We reject it because at a significance level of 0.03 (i.e., less than a 5% chance), the result we obtained could happen too frequently for us to be confident that it was the two teaching methods that had an effect on exam performance.

Whilst there is relatively little justification why a significance level of 0.05 is used rather than 0.01 or 0.10, for example, it is widely used in academic research. However, if you want to be particularly confident in your results, you can set a more stringent level of 0.01 (a 1% chance or less; 1 in 100 chance or less).

One- and two-tailed predictions

When considering whether we reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis, we need to consider the direction of the alternative hypothesis statement. For example, the alternative hypothesis that was stated earlier is:

The alternative hypothesis tells us two things. First, what predictions did we make about the effect of the independent variable(s) on the dependent variable(s)? Second, what was the predicted direction of this effect? Let's use our example to highlight these two points.

Sarah predicted that her teaching method (independent variable: teaching method), whereby she not only required her students to attend lectures, but also seminars, would have a positive effect (that is, increased) students' performance (dependent variable: exam marks). If an alternative hypothesis has a direction (and this is how you want to test it), the hypothesis is one-tailed. That is, it predicts direction of the effect. If the alternative hypothesis has stated that the effect was expected to be negative, this is also a one-tailed hypothesis.

Alternatively, a two-tailed prediction means that we do not make a choice over the direction that the effect of the experiment takes. Rather, it simply implies that the effect could be negative or positive. If Sarah had made a two-tailed prediction, the alternative hypothesis might have been:

In other words, we simply take out the word "positive", which implies the direction of our effect. In our example, making a two-tailed prediction may seem strange. After all, it would be logical to expect that "extra" tuition (going to seminar classes as well as lectures) would either have a positive effect on students' performance or no effect at all, but certainly not a negative effect. However, this is just our opinion (and hope) and certainly does not mean that we will get the effect we expect. Generally speaking, making a one-tail prediction (i.e., and testing for it this way) is frowned upon as it usually reflects the hope of a researcher rather than any certainty that it will happen. Notable exceptions to this rule are when there is only one possible way in which a change could occur. This can happen, for example, when biological activity/presence in measured. That is, a protein might be "dormant" and the stimulus you are using can only possibly "wake it up" (i.e., it cannot possibly reduce the activity of a "dormant" protein). In addition, for some statistical tests, one-tailed tests are not possible.

Rejecting or failing to reject the null hypothesis

Let's return finally to the question of whether we reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis.

If our statistical analysis shows that the significance level is below the cut-off value we have set (e.g., either 0.05 or 0.01), we reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis. Alternatively, if the significance level is above the cut-off value, we fail to reject the null hypothesis and cannot accept the alternative hypothesis. You should note that you cannot accept the null hypothesis, but only find evidence against it.

Hypothesis Testing Calculator

Understanding Hypothesis Testing: A Guide to the Hypothesis Testing Calculator

Hypothesis testing is a crucial statistical method used to make informed decisions about data and draw conclusions. Whether you’re a student, researcher, or professional, a Hypothesis Testing Calculator can be an invaluable tool in your statistical toolkit. Let’s explore what hypothesis testing is and how this calculator can assist you:

Hypothesis Testing Basics:

• Null Hypothesis (H0): This is the default assumption or claim that there is no significant difference or effect. It’s often denoted as H0.
• Alternative Hypothesis (Ha): This is the statement that contradicts the null hypothesis. It suggests that there is a significant difference or effect. It’s denoted as Ha.
• Significance Level (α): This is the predetermined threshold (e.g., 0.05 or 5%) used to determine statistical significance. If the calculated p-value is less than α, you reject the null hypothesis.
• p-value: This is the probability of observing the results (or more extreme results) if the null hypothesis is true. A small p-value suggests that the results are unlikely under the null hypothesis.

Key Features of the Hypothesis Testing Calculator:

• Input Parameters: The calculator typically requires you to input sample data, choose the type of test (e.g., t-test, chi-square test), specify the null and alternative hypotheses, and set the significance level.
• Calculations: Once you input the data and parameters, the calculator performs the necessary statistical tests and calculations. It generates results such as the test statistic, degrees of freedom, and the p-value.
• Interpretation: Based on the results, the calculator helps you determine whether to reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis. It provides an interpretation of the findings, which is crucial for drawing conclusions.
• Visual Representation: Some calculators may offer visual aids like graphs or charts to help you better understand the data distribution and test results.

Significance of the Hypothesis Testing Calculator:

• Scientific Research: Researchers across various fields use hypothesis testing to validate their hypotheses and draw meaningful conclusions from data.
• Quality Control: Industries use hypothesis testing to ensure the quality and consistency of products and processes.
• Medical Studies: In medical research, hypothesis testing helps assess the effectiveness of treatments or interventions.
• Academics: Students and educators use hypothesis testing to teach and learn statistical concepts and conduct experiments.
• Data-Driven Decisions: Businesses use hypothesis testing to make data-driven decisions, such as whether to launch a new product based on market research.

Conclusion:

The Hypothesis Testing Calculator is a powerful tool that simplifies complex statistical analysis and enables data-driven decision-making. Whether you’re conducting experiments, analyzing survey data, or performing quality control, understanding hypothesis testing and using this calculator can help you make informed choices and contribute to evidence-based research and decision-making.

Significance Level Calculator

The probability of rejecting the null hypothesis in a statistical test when the hypothesis is true is called as the significance level. The corresponding significance level of confidence level 95% is 0.05. Use this simple online significance level calculator to do significance level for confidence interval calculation within the fractions of seconds. This two tailed and one tailed significance test calculator is a renown tool for fastest computations.

Two tailed and One Tailed Significance Test Calculator

Calculate the significance level in one tailed test for the confidence interval of 90 %.

l = 100 - 90 = 10 %.

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Understanding Hypothesis Testing, Significance Level, Power and Sample Size Calculation

• Written by Steph Langel
• Published Apr 4, 2024

This e-module offers an in-depth discussion of the essential components of hypothesis testing: significance levels, statistical power, and sample size calculations, which are fundamental to rigorous research methodology. Learners will develop a comprehensive understanding of designing, interpreting, and evaluating research findings through interactive content and real-world case studies. This will enable them to make well-informed decisions based on statistical best practices. The module’s framework allows a thorough learning experience, starting from fundamental definitions and progressing to the hands-on implementation of statistical ideas. This ensures that learners acquire the essential abilities to conduct ethically appropriate and scientifically valid research.

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Hypothesis Testing Framework

Now that we've seen an example and explored some of the themes for hypothesis testing, let's specify the procedure that we will follow.

Hypothesis Testing Steps

The formal framework and steps for hypothesis testing are as follows:

• Identify and define the parameter of interest
• Define the competing hypotheses to test
• Set the evidence threshold, formally called the significance level
• Generate or use theory to specify the sampling distribution and check conditions
• Calculate the test statistic and p-value
• Evaluate your results and write a conclusion in the context of the problem.

We'll discuss each of these steps below.

Identify Parameter of Interest

First, I like to specify and define the parameter of interest. What is the population that we are interested in? What characteristic are we measuring?

By defining our population of interest, we can confirm that we are truly using sample data. If we find that we actually have population data, our inference procedures are not needed. We could proceed by summarizing our population data.

By identifying and defining the parameter of interest, we can confirm that we use appropriate methods to summarize our variable of interest. We can also focus on the specific process needed for our parameter of interest.

In our example from the last page, the parameter of interest would be the population mean time that a host has been on Airbnb for the population of all Chicago listings on Airbnb in March 2023. We could represent this parameter with the symbol $\mu$. It is best practice to fully define $\mu$ both with words and symbol.

Define the Hypotheses

For hypothesis testing, we need to decide between two competing theories. These theories must be statements about the parameter. Although we won't have the population data to definitively select the correct theory, we will use our sample data to determine how reasonable our "skeptic's theory" is.

The first hypothesis is called the null hypothesis, $H_0$. This can be thought of as the "status quo", the "skeptic's theory", or that nothing is happening.

Examples of null hypotheses include that the population proportion is equal to 0.5 ($p = 0.5$), the population median is equal to 12 ($M = 12$), or the population mean is equal to 14.5 ($\mu = 14.5$).

The second hypothesis is called the alternative hypothesis, $H_a$ or $H_1$. This can be thought of as the "researcher's hypothesis" or that something is happening. This is what we'd like to convince the skeptic to believe. In most cases, the desired outcome of the researcher is to conclude that the alternative hypothesis is reasonable to use moving forward.

Examples of alternative hypotheses include that the population proportion is greater than 0.5 ($p > 0.5$), the population median is less than 12 ($M < 12$), or the population mean is not equal to 14.5 ($\mu \neq 14.5$).

There are a few requirements for the hypotheses:

• the hypotheses must be about the same population parameter,
• the hypotheses must have the same null value (provided number to compare to),
• the null hypothesis must have the equality (the equals sign must be in the null hypothesis),
• the alternative hypothesis must not have the equality (the equals sign cannot be in the alternative hypothesis),
• there must be no overlap between the null and alternative hypothesis.

You may have previously seen null hypotheses that include more than an equality (e.g. $p \le 0.5$). As long as there is an equality in the null hypothesis, this is allowed. For our purposes, we will simplify this statement to ($p = 0.5$).

To summarize from above, possible hypotheses statements are:

$H_0: p = 0.5$ vs. $H_a: p > 0.5$

$H_0: M = 12$ vs. $H_a: M < 12$

$H_0: \mu = 14.5$ vs. $H_a: \mu \neq 14.5$

In our second example about Airbnb hosts, our hypotheses would be:

$H_0: \mu = 2100$ vs. $H_a: \mu > 2100$.

Set Threshold (Significance Level)

There is one more step to complete before looking at the data. This is to set the threshold needed to convince the skeptic. This threshold is defined as an $\alpha$ significance level. We'll define exactly what the $\alpha$ significance level means later. For now, smaller $\alpha$s correspond to more evidence being required to convince the skeptic.

A few common $\alpha$ levels include 0.1, 0.05, and 0.01.

For our Airbnb hosts example, we'll set the threshold as 0.02.

Determine the Sampling Distribution of the Sample Statistic

The first step (as outlined above) is the identify the parameter of interest. What is the best estimate of the parameter of interest? Typically, it will be the sample statistic that corresponds to the parameter. This sample statistic, along with other features of the distribution will prove especially helpful as we continue the hypothesis testing procedure.

However, we do have a decision at this step. We can choose to use simulations with a resampling approach or we can choose to rely on theory if we are using proportions or means. We then also need to confirm that our results and conclusions will be valid based on the available data.

Required Condition

The one required assumption, regardless of approach (resampling or theory), is that the sample is random and representative of the population of interest. In other words, we need our sample to be a reasonable sample of data from the population.

Using Simulations and Resampling

If we'd like to use a resampling approach, we have no (or minimal) additional assumptions to check. This is because we are relying on the available data instead of assumptions.

We do need to adjust our data to be consistent with the null hypothesis (or skeptic's claim). We can then rely on our resampling approach to estimate a plausible sampling distribution for our sample statistic.

Recall that we took this approach on the last page. Before simulating our estimated sampling distribution, we adjusted the mean of the data so that it matched with our skeptic's claim, shown in the code below.

We'll see a few more examples on the next page.

Using Theory

On the other hand, we could rely on theory in order to estimate the sampling distribution of our desired statistic. Recall that we had a few different options to rely on:

• the CLT for the sampling distribution of a sample mean
• the binomial distribution for the sampling distribution of a proportion (or count)
• the Normal approximation of a binomial distribution (using the CLT) for the sampling distribution of a proportion

If relying on the CLT to specify the underlying sampling distribution, you also need to confirm:

• having a random sample and
• having a sample size that is less than 10% of the population size if the sampling is done without replacement
• having a Normally distributed population for a quantitative variable OR
• having a large enough sample size (usually at least 25) for a quantitative variable
• having a large enough sample size for a categorical variable (defined by $np$ and $n(1-p)$ being at least 10)

If relying on the binomial distribution to specify the underlying sampling distribution, you need to confirm:

• having a set number of trials, $n$
• having the same probability of success, $p$ for each observation

After determining the appropriate theory to use, we should check our conditions and then specify the sampling distribution for our statistic.

For the Airbnb hosts example, we have what we've assumed to be a random sample. It is not taken with replacement, so we also need to assume that our sample size (700) is less than 10% of our population size. In other words, we need to assume that the population of Chicago Airbnbs in March 2023 was at least 7000. Since we do have our (presumed) population data available, we can confirm that there were at least 7000 Chicago Airbnbs in the population in 2023.

Additionally, we can confirm that normality of the sampling distribution applies for the CLT to apply. Our sample size is more than 25 and the parameter of interest is a mean, so this meets our necessary criteria for the normality condition to be valid.

With the conditions now met, we can estimate our sampling distribution. From the CLT, we know that the distribution for the sample mean should be $\bar{X} \sim N(\mu, \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}})$.

Now, we face our next challenge -- what to plug in as the mean and standard error for this distribution. Since we are adopting the skeptic's point of view for the purpose of this approach, we can plug in the value of $\mu_0 = 2100$. We also know that the sample size $n$ is 700. But what should we plug in for the population standard deviation $\sigma$?

When we don't know the value of a parameter, we will generally plug in our best estimate for the parameter. In this case, that corresponds to plugging in $\hat{\sigma}$, or our sample standard deviation.

Now, our estimated sampling distribution based on the CLT is: $\bar{X} \sim N(2100, 41.4045)$.

If we compare to our corresponding skeptic's sampling distribution on the last page, we can confirm that the theoretical sampling distribution is similar to the simulated sampling distribution based on resampling.

Assumptions not met

What do we do if the necessary conditions aren't met for the sampling distribution? Because the simulation-based resampling approach has minimal assumptions, we should be able to use this approach to produce valid results as long as the provided data is representative of the population.

The theory-based approach has more conditions, and we may not be able to meet all of the necessary conditions. For example, if our parameter is something other than a mean or proportion, we may not have appropriate theory. Additionally, we may not have a large enough sample size.

• First, we could consider changing approaches to the simulation-based one.
• Second, we might look at how we could meet the necessary conditions better. In some cases, we may be able to redefine groups or make adjustments so that the setup of the test is closer to what is needed.
• As a last resort, we may be able to continue following the hypothesis testing steps. In this case, your calculations may not be valid or exact; however, you might be able to use them as an estimate or an approximation. It would be crucial to specify the violation and approximation in any conclusions or discussion of the test.

Calculate the evidence with statistics and p-values

Now, it's time to calculate how much evidence the sample contains to convince the skeptic to change their mind. As we saw above, we can convince the skeptic to change their mind by demonstrating that our sample is unlikely to occur if their theory is correct.

How do we do this? We do this by calculating a probability associated with our observed value for the statistic.

For example, for our situation, we want to convince the skeptic that the population mean is actually greater than 2100 days. We do that by calculating the probability that a sample mean would be as large or larger than what we observed in our actual sample, which was 2188 days. Why do we need the larger portion? We use the larger portion because a sample mean of 2200 days also provides evidence that the population mean is larger than 2100 days; it isn't limited to exactly what we observed in our sample. We call this specific probability the p-value.

That is, the p-value is the probability of observing a test statistic as extreme or more extreme (as determined by the alternative hypothesis), assuming the null hypothesis is true.

Our observed p-value for the Airbnb host example demonstrates that the probability of getting a sample mean host time of 2188 days (the value from our sample) or more is 1.46%, assuming that the true population mean is 2100 days.

Test statistic

Notice that the formal definition of a p-value mentions a test statistic . In most cases, this word can be replaced with "statistic" or "sample" for an equivalent statement.

Oftentimes, we'll see that our sample statistic can be used directly as the test statistic, as it was above. We could equivalently adjust our statistic to calculate a test statistic. This test statistic is often calculated as:

$\text{test statistic} = \frac{\text{estimate} - \text{hypothesized value}}{\text{standard error of estimate}}$

P-value Calculation Options

Note also that the p-value definition includes a probability associated with a test statistic being as extreme or more extreme (as determined by the alternative hypothesis . How do we determine the area that we consider when calculating the probability. This decision is determined by the inequality in the alternative hypothesis.

For example, when we were trying to convince the skeptic that the population mean is greater than 2100 days, we only considered those sample means that we at least as large as what we observed -- 2188 days or more.

If instead we were trying to convince the skeptic that the population mean is less than 2100 days ($H_a: \mu < 2100$), we would consider all sample means that were at most what we observed - 2188 days or less. In this case, our p-value would be quite large; it would be around 99.5%. This large p-value demonstrates that our sample does not support the alternative hypothesis. In fact, our sample would encourage us to choose the null hypothesis instead of the alternative hypothesis of $\mu < 2100$, as our sample directly contradicts the statement in the alternative hypothesis.

If we wanted to convince the skeptic that they were wrong and that the population mean is anything other than 2100 days ($H_a: \mu \neq 2100$), then we would want to calculate the probability that a sample mean is at least 88 days away from 2100 days. That is, we would calculate the probability corresponding to 2188 days or more or 2012 days or less. In this case, our p-value would be roughly twice the previously calculated p-value.

We could calculate all of those probabilities using our sampling distributions, either simulated or theoretical, that we generated in the previous step. If we chose to calculate a test statistic as defined in the previous section, we could also rely on standard normal distributions to calculate our p-value.

Evaluate your results and write conclusion in context of problem

Once you've gathered your evidence, it's now time to make your final conclusions and determine how you might proceed.

In traditional hypothesis testing, you often make a decision. Recall that you have your threshold (significance level $\alpha$) and your level of evidence (p-value). We can compare the two to determine if your p-value is less than or equal to your threshold. If it is, you have enough evidence to persuade your skeptic to change their mind. If it is larger than the threshold, you don't have quite enough evidence to convince the skeptic.

Common formal conclusions (if given in context) would be:

• I have enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis (the skeptic's claim), and I have sufficient evidence to suggest that the alternative hypothesis is instead true.
• I do not have enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis (the skeptic's claim), and so I do not have sufficient evidence to suggest the alternative hypothesis is true.

The only decision that we can make is to either reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis (we cannot "accept" the null hypothesis). Because we aren't actively evaluating the alternative hypothesis, we don't want to make definitive decisions based on that hypothesis. However, when it comes to making our conclusion for what to use going forward, we frame this on whether we could successfully convince someone of the alternative hypothesis.

A less formal conclusion might look something like:

Based on our sample of Chicago Airbnb listings, it seems as if the mean time since a host has been on Airbnb (for all Chicago Airbnb listings) is more than 5.75 years.

Significance Level Interpretation

We've now seen how the significance level $\alpha$ is used as a threshold for hypothesis testing. What exactly is the significance level?

The significance level $\alpha$ has two primary definitions. One is that the significance level is the maximum probability required to reject the null hypothesis; this is based on how the significance level functions within the hypothesis testing framework. The second definition is that this is the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when the null hypothesis is true; in other words, this is the probability of making a specific type of error called a Type I error.

Why do we have to be comfortable making a Type I error? There is always a chance that the skeptic was originally correct and we obtained a very unusual sample. We don't want to the skeptic to be so convinced of their theory that no evidence can convince them. In this case, we need the skeptic to be convinced as long as the evidence is strong enough . Typically, the probability threshold will be low, to reduce the number of errors made. This also means that a decent amount of evidence will be needed to convince the skeptic to abandon their position in favor of the alternative theory.

p-value Limitations and Misconceptions

In comparison to the $\alpha$ significance level, we also need to calculate the evidence against the null hypothesis with the p-value.

The p-value is the probability of getting a test statistic as extreme or more extreme (in the direction of the alternative hypothesis), assuming the null hypothesis is true.

Recently, p-values have gotten some bad press in terms of how they are used. However, that doesn't mean that p-values should be abandoned, as they still provide some helpful information. Below, we'll describe what p-values don't mean, and how they should or shouldn't be used to make decisions.

Factors that affect a p-value

What features affect the size of a p-value?

• the null value, or the value assumed under the null hypothesis
• the effect size (the difference between the null value under the null hypothesis and the true value of the parameter)
• the sample size

More evidence against the null hypothesis will be obtained if the effect size is larger and if the sample size is larger.

Misconceptions

We gave a definition for p-values above. What are some examples that p-values don't mean?

• A p-value is not the probability that the null hypothesis is correct
• A p-value is not the probability that the null hypothesis is incorrect
• A p-value is not the probability of getting your specific sample
• A p-value is not the probability that the alternative hypothesis is correct
• A p-value is not the probability that the alternative hypothesis is incorrect
• A p-value does not indicate the size of the effect

Our p-value is a way of measuring the evidence that your sample provides against the null hypothesis, assuming the null hypothesis is in fact correct.

Using the p-value to make a decision

Why is there bad press for a p-value? You may have heard about the standard $\alpha$ level of 0.05. That is, we would be comfortable with rejecting the null hypothesis once in 20 attempts when the null hypothesis is really true. Recall that we reject the null hypothesis when the p-value is less than or equal to the significance level.

Consider what would happen if you have two different p-values: 0.049 and 0.051.

In essence, these two p-values represent two very similar probabilities (4.9% vs. 5.1%) and very similar levels of evidence against the null hypothesis. However, when we make our decision based on our threshold, we would make two different decisions (reject and fail to reject, respectively). Should this decision really be so simplistic? I would argue that the difference shouldn't be so severe when the sample statistics are likely very similar. For this reason, I (and many other experts) strongly recommend using the p-value as a measure of evidence and including it with your conclusion.

Putting too much emphasis on the decision (and having a significant result) has created a culture of misusing p-values. For this reason, understanding your p-value itself is crucial.

Searching for p-values

The other concern with setting a definitive threshold of 0.05 is that some researchers will begin performing multiple tests until finding a p-value that is small enough. However, with a p-value of 0.05, we know that we will have a p-value less than 0.05 1 time out of every 20 times, even when the null hypothesis is true.

This means that if researchers start hunting for p-values that are small (sometimes called p-hacking), then they are likely to identify a small p-value every once in a while by chance alone. Researchers might then publish that result, even though the result is actually not informative. For this reason, it is recommended that researchers write a definitive analysis plan to prevent performing multiple tests in search of a result that occurs by chance alone.

Best Practices

With all of this in mind, what should we do when we have our p-value? How can we prevent or reduce misuse of a p-value?

• Report the p-value along with the conclusion
• Specify the effect size (the value of the statistic)
• Define an analysis plan before looking at the data
• Interpret the p-value clearly to specify what it indicates
• Consider using an alternate statistical approach, the confidence interval, discussed next, when appropriate

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Statistical significance calculator: Tool & complete guide

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18 min read When you make changes to your products or services, our statistical significance calculator helps you assess how they affect sales. Learn about statistical significance and how to calculate it in this short guide.

Statistical Significance Calculator

Conversions

Conversion Rate

Significant result!

Variant B’s conversion rate (5.20)% was higher than variant A’s conversion rate (4.33)%. You can be 95% confident that variant B will perform better than variant A.

Assuming you intented to have a 50% / 50% split, a Sample Ratio Mismatch (SRM) check indicates there might be a problem with your distribution.

What is statistical significance?

If you’re not a researcher, scientist or statistician, it’s incredibly easy to misunderstand what’s meant by statistical significance. In common parlance, significance means “important”, but when researchers say the findings of a study were or are “statistically significant”, it means something else entirely.

Put simply, statistical significance refers to whether any differences observed between groups studied are “real” or simply due to chance or coincidence. If a result is statistically significant, it means that it’s unlikely to have occurred as a result of chance or a random factor.

Even if data appears to have a strong relationship, you must account for the possibility that the apparent correlation is due to random chance or sampling error.

For example, consider you’re running a study for a new pair of running shoes designed to improve average running speed.

You have two groups, Group A and Group B. Group A received the new running shoes, while Group B did not. Over the course of a month, Group A’s average running speed increased by 2km/h — but Group B (who didn’t receive the new running shoes) also increased their average running speed by 1.5km/h.

The question is, did the running shoes produce the 0.5km/h difference between the groups, or did Group A simply increase their speed by chance? Is the result statistically significant?

How do you test for statistical significance?

In quantitative research , you analyze data using null hypothesis testing. This procedure determines whether a relationship or difference between variables is statistically significant.

• Null hypothesis: Predicts no true effect, relationship or difference between variables or groups. This test aims to support the main prediction by rejecting other explanations.
• Alternative hypothesis: States your main prediction of a true effect, relationship or difference between groups and variables. This is your initial prediction that you want to prove.

Hypothesis testing always starts with the assumption that the null hypothesis is true. With this approach, you can assess the probability of obtaining the results you’re looking for — and then accept or reject the null hypothesis.

For example, you could run a test on whether eating before bed affects the quality of sleep. To start with, you have to reform your predictions into null and alternative hypotheses:

• Null hypothesis: There’s no difference in sleep quality when eating before bed.
• Alternative hypothesis: Eating before bed affects sleep quality.

When you reject a null hypothesis that’s actually true, this is called a type I error.

From here, you collect the data from the groups involved. Every statistical test will produce a test statistic, the t value, and a corresponding p-value .

What’s the t-value?

The test statistic, or t value, is a number that describes how much you want your test results to differ from the null hypothesis. It allows you to compare the average value of two data sets and determine if they come from the same population.

What is the p-value?

It’s here where it gets more complicated with the p (probability) value. The p-value  tells you the statistical significance of a finding and operates as a threshold. In most studies, a p-value  of 0.05 or less is considered statistically significant — but you can set the threshold higher.

A higher p-value  of over 0.05 means variation is less likely, while a lower value below 0.05 suggests differences. You can calculate the difference using this formula: (1 -­ p-value )*100.

What this means is that results within that threshold (give or take) are perceived as statistically significant and therefore not a result of chance or coincidence.

The next stage is interpreting your results by comparing the p-value  to a predetermined significance level.

What is a significance level?

Now, the significance level (α) is a value that you set in advance as the threshold for statistical significance. In simple terms, it’s the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it’s true. For example, a significance level of 0.05% indicates a 5% risk of concluding that a difference exists when there’s no actual difference.

Lower significance levels mean you require stronger, more irrefutable evidence before rejecting the null hypothesis. Also, though they sound similar, significance level and confidence level are not the same thing. Confidence level assesses the probability that if a poll/test/survey was repeated over and over again, the result obtained would remain the same.

You use the significance level in conjunction with your p-value  to determine which hypothesis the data supports. If your p-value  is less than the significance level, you can reject the null hypothesis and conclude that the results are statistically significant.

But surely there’s an easier way to test for statistical significance?

Calculate statistical significance with ease

Our statistical significance calculator helps you to understand the importance of one variable against another, but without the need for complex equations.

What you need to know before using the tool

You need to get your variables correct. Start by defining two scenarios (or hypotheses):

• Scenario one has a control variable that indicates the ‘usual’ situation, where there is no known relationship between the metrics being looked at. This is also known as the null hypothesis, which is expected to bring little to no variation between the control variable and the tested variable. This can be verified by calculating the z score (see below).
• Scenario two has a variant variable which is used to see if there is a causal relationship present.

You can test your hypotheses by calculating the z score and p value.

What is the z score?

The z-score is the numerical representation of your desired confidence level. It tells you how many standard deviations from the mean your score is.

The most common percentages are 90%, 95%, and 99%. It’s also recommended to carry out two-sided tests — but more on that later.

To find out more about z scores and how to use them, check out our sample size calculator tool.

How does the tool calculate statistical significance?

When you’re confident in the variables you placed in your hypotheses, you’re ready to use the tool. The tool works in two stages:

• First, it calculates the impact of two metrics across the two scenarios,
• Then, it compares the two data sets to see which scenario did better, and to what extent (is there a large difference or a small difference between new flavor sales on a hot day and a cold day?).

You’ll then be left with an error-free indication of the impact of an action (e.g. eating) on a reference data set (sleep quality), while excluding other elements (mattress, weather etc). This will show researchers the extent – or significance – of the impact (if there is a large or small correlation).

This is essentially a two-sided test, which is recommended for understanding statistical significance. Unlike a one-sided test that compares one variable with another to give an out-of-context conclusion, a two-sided test adds in a sense of scale.

For example, the performance level of the variant’s impact can be negative, as well as positive. In this way, a two-sided test gives you more data to determine if the variant’s impact is a real difference or just a random chance.

Here’s another example: let’s say you launch a brand-new ice cream flavor. On the first day of marketing it to customers, you happen to have excellent sales. However, it just so happens that it was also the hottest day of the year.

How can you say with certainty that rather than the weather, the new flavor was the cause for the increase in sales revenue? Let’s add the ice cream sales data to the calculator and find out.

Insert snapshot graphic of the ice cream variables into the calculator using example data: e.g.

  May 1st (new flavor is the constant on a cold day – this is the control): Ice cream scoops sold = 50 and total sales revenue = £2500

May 2nd (new flavor is the constant on a hot day – this is the variant): Ice cream scoops sold = 51 and total sales revenue = £2505

In this case, the hot weather did not impact the number of scoops sold, so we can determine that there is almost zero chance of the hot weather affecting sales volume.

So, how do I know when something is statistically significant?

This is where the p-value  comes back into play.

Where there is a larger variation in test results (e.g. a large conversion rate) between the control and variant scenarios, this means that there is likely to be a statistically significant difference between them. If the variant scenario causes more positive impact – e.g. a surge in sales – this can indicate that the variant is more likely to cause the perceived change. It’s unlikely that this is a coincidence.

Where there is less variation in results (e.g. a small conversion rate), then there is less statistical difference, and so the variant does not have as big an impact. Where the impact is not favorable – e.g. there was little upwards growth in sales revenue – this could indicate that the variant is not the cause of the sales revenue, and is therefore unlikely to help it grow.

Did the p-value  you expected come out in the results?

Example: A/B Testing Calculator

Another example of statistical significance happens in email marketing. Most email  management systems (EMSs) have the ability to run an A/B test with a representative sample size.

An A/B test helps marketers to understand whether one change between identical emails – for example, a difference in the subject line, the inclusion of an image, and adding in the recipient’s name in the greeting to personalize the message – can enhance engagement. Engagement can come in the form of a:

• Higher open rate (by A/B testing different subject lines)
• Higher click-through conversion rate or more traffic to the website (by A/B testing different link text)
• Higher customer loyalty (by A/B testing the email that results in the fewest clicks on the unsubscribe link)

The statistical significance calculator tool can be used in this situation. An example of exploring the conversion rate of two subject lines with A/B testing this looks like:

Insert qualtrics calculator graphic, based on the below (see comment):

Why is it important for business?

There are many benefits to using this tool:

• Management can rapidly turn around on products or services that are under-performing
• Using statistical significance can help you measure the impact of different growth initiatives to increase conversions or make positive impact
• Testing is quantitative and provides factual evidence without researcher bias
• By having a confirmed causal relationship, this can give you a confidence level that supports agile changes to a product or service for the better. For example, a low confidence level that a new ice-cream flavor affects sales can support the decision to remove that flavor from the product line

Doing more with statistical significance research

Once you get your head around it, you can do a lot with statistical significance testing. For example, you can try playing with the control and variant variables to see which changes have the greatest effect on your results.

You can also use the results to support further research or establish risk levels for the company to manage.

Some technology tools can make the process easy to scale up research and make the most of historical datasets effectively. For example Qualtrics’ powerful AI machine learning engine, iQ™  in CoreXM , automatically runs the complex text and statistical analysis.

Continue the journey with our guide to conducting market research

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