economics essay 2023

Harvard International Economics

Essay contest (hieec).

HIEEC provides students the opportunity to demonstrate an accomplished level of writing and understanding of economic theory. Through the contest, students hone their academic and professional skills and exhibit their knowledge.

HIEE C 202 3 -2024

Hieec 2023-2024 is now closed. .

The 2023-2024 Harvard International Economics Essay Contest is sponsored by the Harvard Undergraduate Economics Association (HUEA). This essay competition is open to high school studen ts of any year and is a fantastic opportunity to demonstrat e an accom plished level of writing and understanding of economic the ory. T hrough the contest, student competitors hone their academic and professional skills and exhibit their knowledge to future employers and academic programs.

Competitors must construct a convincing argument using economic theory and real-world examples. Winning essays will be published on our website and will be available for the greater Harvard community to read. Essays should focus on argumentation supported with facts and references, although data-based support is also welcome.

Yiheng Lyu

Audrey Ku k

Hyoungjin Jin

Juyoung Chun

Kevin Zhang

Matthew Choi

Mikayil Sadikhov

Raunak Agarwal

Vallabh Himakunthala

Highly Commended

Aronima Biswas

Aryan Nangia

Kridaya Gupta

Leonardo Jia

Rohan Mathur

Anagha Chakravarti

Amberlynn Gong

Neha Shanavas

Donghyeon Oh

2023-2024 Essay Questions

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have the potential to affect growth, inequality, productivity, innovation, and employment. OpenAI’s ChatGPT, in particular, has greatly increased public awareness about the significance of AI and its implications for the future. What impact will the development of AI have on economic inequality, the composition of the workforce, and economic output as a whole? How can nations prepare for the micro and macroeconomic changes brought about by AI?

Measuring national and global economic activity allows us to understand how economies change in size and structure—how they grow and contract. In addition to Gross Domestic Product (GDP), government budgets, and the money supply, alternatives like the Human Development Index (HDI) and Gross National Income (GNI) are used to assess economic progress. What are the advantages of our current economic indices, including GDP, HDI, GNI, government budgets, and the money supply, and in what areas are they lacking? Which of these indices do you find most helpful, and how can we enhance or combine them to improve our understanding of economic measurement?

Proponents of income redistribution support the idea that redistribution policies will increase economic stability and give more opportunities to the less wealthy. Others, however, are more skeptical and believe it could have negative consequences for economic growth. Current methods of redistribution include taxation, welfare, public services, and other monetary policies. What strategies for income redistribution should the U.S. adopt from other countries? What economic impacts could a wealth tax or super millionaire tax have? What type of redistribution is most effective and feasible? What would be the impacts of the U.S. enacting universal basic income? Discuss the implications of any of these issues and feel free to expand on other areas of economic redistribution.

As the United States weighs the impacts of China’s rise to global prominence, economics and national security have become increasingly intertwined. As a result, the United States government has imposed both tariffs and investment restrictions on China to limit the nation’s access to both US markets and intellectual property (specifically in sensitive industries such as semiconductors). What are the economic implications of these policies for United States firms, consumers, and workers? Discuss the most important perspectives of the US-China trade war and provide suggestions on how both countries can manage the prospect of a changing economic order.

2nd November 2023 – Essay titles released

11:59pm EST 5th January 2024 – Essay submission deadline

Late February 2024* – Highly Commended and Finalists notified

Early March 2024 * – Winners notified, results published on the website

*We received a high volume of submissions, therefore we anticipate that it will take us a couple m ore w eeks to release the results.

Entrants must choose one of the four prompts and write a response to it with a strict limit of 1500 words. Submission must be via the HUEA website and entrants are limited to submitting one essay with only the first submission being considered. Each essay submission will have a $20 reading fee which should be paid upon submission of the essay. If this fee will impose a significant financial burden on your family, please email us. The deadline for submitting the essay is 11:59pm EST January 5th, 2024.

Please submit essay submissions via this form.

If the above link does not work, use: https://forms.gle/9NVDu9WVbU71iPpq6

*Be sure to read all the details in the submission form carefully before submitting, as failure to complete any of the steps correctly may result in your submission not being considered.

The essays will be judged by the board of the HUEA, with the top 10 submissions being adjudicated by the esteemed Harvard professor and 2016 Economics Nobel Prize winner Oliver Hart.

The top three winning essays will be published ( with the author’s permission) on our website. A finalist s list of the top submissions will be published online and adjudicated by 2016 Economics Nobel Prize Winner Oliver Hart. A list of names that will receive the "Highly Commended" distinction will also be published online. The judges' decisions are final.

Terms and Conditions

The word limit of 1500 must be strictly adhered to. Any words past the limit will be truncated. This limit excludes references, footnotes, titles, headers and footers.

Essays must be written only by the entrant. Any outside assistance must be declared in the beginning or end of the essay.

Only your first submission will be accepted. Any further submissions will not be read.

References must be included, and any plagiarism will lead to disqualification.

References must be in Chicago or APA format.

The only accepted document formatting is PDF. Any other format will not be accepted, nor will refunds be given to those who do not follow this rule.

No refunds are granted.

Grades 9-12 are permitted.

The essay must not be entered in any other competition nor be published elsewhere.

No individual feedback of essays will be granted.

The decisions made by HUEA by the final round of adjudication are final.

All winners agree to their names being published on the HUEA website.

Past Winners

2022 prompts an d winners.

In recent years and decades, many countries have seen fertility rates drop, potentially leading to falling populations. Currently, China has a fertility rate of 1.3, one of the lowest in the world. However, in 2021, China experienced GDP growth of 8% with output totaling $17.7 trillion. Will this lowered fertility rate (with potential to fall further) affect China’s economic growth and policy? How so? What, if anything, can the Chinese government do to limit the risk of falling fertility rates?

U.S. mortgage rates recently passed 7%, making the purchase of a new home increasingly unaffordable. Meanwhile, the United States has suffered from a chronic shortage of available housing for decades, particularly in urban areas, leading to what many scholars and advocates call an affordability crisis. Why is housing so unaffordable in the U.S.? What can (or should) be done by private actors, state and local governments, and the federal government to alleviate the affordability crisis?

It is often suggested that a tradeoff exists between economic growth and the health of the environment, especially now as the threat of climate change becomes more dire. What economic risks does a changing climate pose? Can economic growth be consistent with a healthy environment? What policies, either market-based or otherwise, should governments enact to protect the environment while posing the least danger to economic efficiency?

Central banks such as the Federal Reserve in the U.S. and the Bank of England in the UK manage their nation’s macroeconomies with the goal of ensuring price stability and maximum employment. Globally, inflation rates are rising to levels not seen since the 1980s, particularly in the U.S. and European countries. To what extent should the monetary policies of central banks in various Western countries differ or resemble one another as a reaction to the specific causes of inflation facing their economies?

Click below to view each winner's essay

Ashwin t elang * nanxi jiang * duncan wong, 2019 wi n ner.

https://www.economicsreview.org/post/when-is-one-choice-one-t oo-many

2020 Winners

https://www.economicsreview.org/post/covid-19-and-the-market

https://www.economicsreview.org/post/automation-and-jobs-this-time-is-different

https://www.economicsreview.org/post/making-rational-decisions

Essay Competition

“the ideas of economists… both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood… indeed the world is ruled by little else” , j. m. keynes (general theory, 1936), essay competition 2023.

We received over 750 eligible submissions this year, with each one being hand-read and marked by our panellists at the University of Cambridge. Overall, we were thoroughly impressed by the quality of the responses to some of the most challenging questions in the competition’s history. We would like to thank every student that submitted an essay this year, and extend our warmest congratulations to the winners and shortlisted essays named below.

We are delighted to announce that the winner of the 2023 Marshall Society Essay Competition is David Lu of Raffles Institution, Singapore. David’s essay in response to Question 4 deftly balanced advanced economic theories with real-world data, clear explanations, and rhetorical flair, and was a pleasure to read. We look forward to publishing it in the forthcoming issue of The Dismal Scientist , the magazine of the Marshall Society, and awarding our top prize of £50.

In 2nd place is You Peng of Shenzhen College of International Education, China. Peng’s essay in response to Question 2 was theoretically advanced and well structured, and we would’ve liked to see even more real-world application. It will likewise be published and receive a finalist prize of £25.

In 3rd place is Hanyun Qian of Suzhou Foreign Language School, China. Hanyun’s essay in response to Question 5 was extremely original, insightful, and entertaining to read, and we would’ve liked to see an even tighter focus on the question set. It will likewise be published and receive a finalist prize of £25.

Our shortlisted essays, in no particular order, were as follows:

To everyone that took part in the competition, thank you for the time and care spent in preparing your essay, and all the best for your future studies. We hope you’re looking forward to the 2024 edition of the essay competition.

A reminder of the essay questions set this year is as follows:

In what ways could Artificial Intelligence reshape the labour market? Will it usher in Keynes’ ‘age of leisure’?
‘Policymakers can’t exploit the Phillips curve to reduce unemployment due to the Lucas critique.’ Evaluate this statement.
The US Federal Child Tax Credit is scheduled to revert from $2,000 to $1,000 by 2025. Is this policy a mistake?
Tensions between the US and China have been steadily increasing. Is it in the US’ interest to decouple from China economically?
‘There were no meaningful long-run changes in living standards until the Industrial Revolution.’ Discuss.
Has Economics run out of big new ideas? If so, what are the implications? If not, justify with an example.

Submissions for Equilibrium are now open! The Semester 2 regular deadline is May 12th, 2024.

Harker Oeconomia

Harvard international economics essay competition, description.

The 2023 Harvard International Economics Essay Contest is sponsored by the Harvard Undergraduate Economics Association (HUEA) in conjunction with the Harvard College Economics Review (HCER). This essay competition is open to high school students of any year and is a fantastic opportunity to demonstrate an accomplished level of writing and understanding of economic theory. Through the contest, student competitors hone their academic and professional skills and exhibit their knowledge to future employers and academic programs. Competitors must construct a convincing argument using economic theory and real-world examples. Winning essays will be published in the Harvard Economics Review and will be available for the greater Harvard community to read. Essays should focus on argumentation supported with facts and references, although data-based support is also welcome.

LSESU Economics Society

The Essay Competition 2023

Welcome to the lsesu economics society’s essay competition 2023. we are so excited to release this year’s questions, our questions range from the impact of artificial intelligence to explaining variations in happiness. we can’t wait to read your entries, prizes range from signed certifications by nobel prize-winning economists and include £100 amazon gift cards..

UC Berkeley’s Premier Undergraduate Economics Journal

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Spring 2023 High School Essay Contest

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Fall 2021 high school contest- runner up.

Fall 2020 High School Essay Contest

Fall 2021 Undergraduate Essay Contest – Open Now!

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The International Economic Association is pleased to announce the winners of the Stiglitz Essay Prize 2023. This prize is possible thanks to the generous donation that the Economic Society of Australia pledged to the IEA. The 1st Prize in the graduate category was awarded to Can Soylu (Brown University). The first prize in the undergraduate category was awarded to Matan Goldman and Hila Perl (Bar-Ilan University) while the 2nd prize was awarded to Bilal Moin (Yale University)

Matan Goldman Hila Perl

Bilal Moin

Stiglitz Essay Prize 2020

Nicolas De Laubier-Longuet Marx

1st Prize Graduate Category

Daksh Walia

1st Prize Undergraduate Category

Ahmed Abdul Mumin

2nd Prize Graduate Category

Pradnyee Kantak

2nd Prize Undergraduate Category

Wannaphong Durongkaveroj

3rd Prize Graduate category

Stiglitz Essay Prize Award 2017

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the International Economic Association (IEA) are pleased to announce thethree (3) best papers for the 2024 ADB–IEA Innovative Policy Research Award. The award-winning papers were selected from over 150 papers covering a wide range of economic topics. Each award-winning paper will receive a $7,000 grant financed by ADB. The prize will be formally awarded at the ADB-IEA award session of the 2024 ADB Annual Meeting in May 2024. To acknowledge research excellence, the announcement also includes honorable mentions of seven (7) high-quality papers.

Three Award-Winning Papers:

Building Resilient Education Systems: Evidence from Large-Scale Randomized Trials in Five Countries by Noam Angrist (University Of Oxford & Youth Impact); Micheal Ainomugisha (Building Tomorrow); Claire Cullen (University Of Oxford & Youth Impact); Rene Marlon Panti (Innovations for Poverty Action); Shwetlena Sabarwal, (World Bank); Tim Sullivan (NewGlobe); Sai Pramod Bathena (Alokit); Peter Bergman (The University of Texas at Austin); Colin Crossley (Youth Impact); Thato Letsomo (Youth Impact); and Moitshepi Matsheng (Youth Impact)

School Attendance Information or Conditional Cash Transfer? Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment in Rural Bangladesh by Abu Shonchoy (Florida International University); Tomoki Fujii (Singapore Management University); Christine Ho (Singapore Management University); and Rohan Ray (National University of Singapore)

Public WASH Programs, Long-Run Child Development, and Intergenerational Mobility: New Evidence from Rural China by Dongqin Wang (The Chinese University of Hong Kong); and Eddy (Weijian) Zou (London School of Economics and Institute for Fiscal Studies)

Honorable Mentions:

Global Gains from a Green Energy Transition: Evidence on Coal-Fired Power and Air Quality Dissatisfaction by Azhar Hussain (London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE)); and Timothy Besley (LSE)

The Double-Edged Sword: Unintended Consequences of SME Promotion Policy by Athiphat Muthitacharoen (Chulalongkorn University); Archawa Paweenawat (Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research (PIER)); and Krislert Samphantharak (University of California San Diego and PIER)

Access to Information, Technology Adoption and Productivity: Large-Scale Evidence from Agriculture in India by Apoorv Gupta (Dartmouth College); Jacopo Ponticelli (Northwestern University – Kellogg School of Management, NBER & CEPR); and Andrea Tesei (Queen Mary University of London, CEPR, CEP (LSE) & CESifo)

Sacrifice for the Greater Good: Welfare and Distributional Impacts of Flood Detention Basins in China by Yuxiao Hu (LSE); Runhong Ma (LSE); and Yifan Wang (LSE)

Early Childhood Human Capital Formation at Scale by Saravana Ravindran (Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore); Johannes M. Bos (American Institutes for Research (AIR)); Abu S. Shonchoy (Florida International University); Akib Khan (Uppsala University)

Long-term Impacts of Growth and Development Monitoring: Evidence from Routine Health Examinations in Early Childhood by Meiping (Aggie) Sun (Fordham University); Yinhe Liang, (Central University of Finance and Economics (CUFE)); and Xiaobo Peng (CUFE)

The long-term impact of in-utero exposure to natural disasters: Evidence from the 2010 Pakistan flood by Saqib Hussain (KDI School of Public Policy and Management); Rida Ali Khan (KDI School of Public Policy and Management)

ADB-IEA Innovative Policy Research Award

Call for papers The Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the International Economic Association (IEA) are pleased to announce the three (3) best papers for the 2023 ADB–IEA Innovative Policy Research Award. The award-winning papers were selected from over 100 papers covering a wide range of economic topics. Each award-winning paper will receive a $7,000 grant financed by ADB. The prize will be formally awarded at the ADB-IEA award session of the 2023 ADB Annual Meeting in May 2023. To acknowledge research excellence, the announcement also includes honorable mentions of seven (7) high-quality papers.

ADB-IEA Innovative Research Award

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the International Economic Association (IEA) are pleased to announce the three (3) best papers for the 2022 ADB–IEA Innovative Policy Research Award. The award-winning papers were selected from over 250 papers covering a wide range of economic topics. Each award-winning paper will receive a $7,000 grant financed by ADB.

Award session 2022

Shuguang Jiang

Amartya Sen Prize Winner

Kenneth Mahuni

Announcing the Winners of the Nottingham-World Bank Economics Essay Competition 2023

The World Bank Group Inclusive Growth and Sustainable Finance Hub in Malaysia, in partnership with the School of Economics, University of Nottingham Malaysia, is thrilled to declare the champions of this year's Nottingham-World Bank Economics Essay Competition.

The competition focused on the pressing issue of youth unemployment in Malaysia, especially in today's digital age. Participants submitted an essay based off the following prompt - Malaysian youth unemployment rate has been more than ten percent, more than three times higher than the national average. What reforms should the Malaysian government pursue to ensure the labour market in this digital era is vibrant and resilient when you graduate from college?

We take immense pride in announcing that the essays of our top three winners:

First prize: Zhi Shen Kerk and Han Ying (Iring) Zhang (International School of Kuala Lumpur) - essay
Second prize: Kan Zheng Hou and Foo Zi Yan (Kuen Cheng High School, Kuala Lumpur) - essay
Third prize: Lim Kah Xuan and Leong Yu Chen (Kluang Chong Hwa High School, Kluang, Johor) - essay

Consolation prizes (in no particular order):

Lim Qi Zhi and Lim Qi Zao (SMJK Katholik, Petaling Jaya, Selangor) - essay
Joshua Chin Yue Yong (Diploma in Marketing, Tunku Abdul Rahman University of Management and Technology, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah) - essay
Saw Xiao Shan (Cambridge International A-Levels, Institut Sinaran, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah) - essay

A huge appreciation is extended to all the participants.

The World Bank seeks tto foster such platforms that bridge young minds and economic solutions. We anticipate more enlightening entries in the subsequent editions and wish every participant success in their academic and professional pursuits.

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Harvard International Economics Essay Contest (HIEEC)

Last modified 2023-12-01
Published on 2021-05-14

Competition Details

Introduction : The Harvard Undergraduate Economics Association (HUEA) is organizing its flagship Harvard International Economics Essay Contest with the collaboration of the Harvard College Economics Review. We jointly organize the Essay competition with HUEA, and we also publish the top three essays in our online publications. HIEEC provides students the opportunity to demonstrate an accomplished level of writing and understanding of economic theory. Through the contest, students hone their academic and professional skills and exhibit their knowledge.

2023-2024 Harvard International Economics Essay Contest Topic:

Contest Rule: The word limit of 1500 must be strictly adhered to. Any words past the limit will be truncated. This limit excludes references, footnotes, titles, headers, and footers.

Competition Website : For more information about the competition, click here .

How to Write Any High School Essay

Eligibility

Students in Grades 9-12

Registration Deadline

January 5, 2024

Our Teaching Methods

1:1 personalized curriculum.

After registration, your assigned teacher and course consultant will go over course expectations, personal goals, and course plans.

Expert teachers

Aralia's instructors are teachers from top-ranking high schools and colleges across the United States. They will help you cultivate the skills and knowledge needed for college and future career

Your success

With the combination of personalized curriculum and years of teaching experience, you are set to achieve your personal and professional success

Students who previously took the class:

Throughout the years, our students have successfully gained admission or are currently attending top-ranking secondary and high schools around the world: America, Australia, Canada, China, and more:

Cardigan Mountain School
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Other competition preparation programs that we offer

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Kenyon Review Poetry Contest

Patricia Grodd Poetry Prize for Young Writers

Aralia Education is an innovative online education platform for ambitious middle and high school students worldwide. Aralia’s instructors propel students forward by helping them build a strong foundation in traditional academic courses. They also actively engage and guide students in exploring personal interests beyond their school curriculum. With this holistic approach, Aralia ensures its students are well-prepared for college and equipped for success in their future careers.

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Economics Essay Topics: 162 Practical Ideas & Useful Tips

Essay writing is an inherent part of the economics studying process. Nevertheless, it is quite a challenging task. Are you a high school or college student who is struggling with an economic essay topic choice? Or maybe you are unsure about your writing skills?

We know how to help you .

The following article will guide you in choosing the best topic for your essay on economics. Here, you can find a variety of ideas for high school or college. The economic essay topics are divided into several categories that will help you with your research. And a pleasant bonus from our team! We have created a great guide on how to write an economics essay.

So, don’t miss your chance to write an outstanding economic paper! Check out our essay ideas, read our tips carefully, and be ready to receive your grade A!

⭐ Best Economic Topics
🤝 Socio-Economic
🗺️ International Economics
🛠️ Labor Economics
🌆 Urban Economics
⚽ Sports Economics
💉 Health Economics
💼 Business Economics
🏤 Globalization
🧮 Economic History
💫 How to Write?

⭐ 15 Best Economic Essay Topics

2008 Economic Crisis.
Socio-economic policy.
Economic systems – Singapore.
Racial pay gap.
Economic globalization.
History of online trading.
Child labor policies.
The Economic Naturalist.
Foundations of economic theory.
Impact of unemployment.
Universal Basic Income.
The role of consumerism.
Healthcare economics – Canada’s Medicare.
Reasons for recession.
Cryptocurrency & environmental issues.

✨ Excellent Economic Essay Topics

Has economics always been a subject of meticulous research? The question is quite controversial, right? There is no specific time when economics started its rapid progress. Generally, economics remains the topic of interest since the establishment of capitalism in the Western world.

Nowadays, the economy is the main engine that moves our world forward. The way we do business determines the geopolitical situation in the world. Moreover, it influences many other parts of our lives.

The skills developed through studying economics are incredibly versatile.

Economics studying is of utmost importance nowadays. It helps to gain a better understanding of processes that put everything in motion.

Economics is quite broad, so it has a great variety of subfields. And this is a fantastic opportunity for us to generate as many essay ideas as possible. Here, you will find great economic topics for your paper. As mentioned before, we have divided them into several sections to ease your selection process. There’s a wide selection of free college essays samples on economics in our database, too. So be sure to check that out.

🤝 Socio-Economic Essay Topics

The economic impact of racial segregation in America in the 1950s.
Designing a just socio-economic system.
Socio-economic status of Hong Kong in modern-day China. Explain how the city of Hong Kong gained a special status in China. Why did it emerge as one of the most important cities in its economy? Comment on the significance of Hong Kong in the international economic arena.
Economic growth in the United States in the post-World War 2 period.
Mobile banking in Saudi Arabia: towards understanding the factors that affect the sector.
The importance of Dior’s bar suit to the women’s fashion industry.
Economic problems in the 1980’s Soviet Union. Talk about the significant problems with the economy the USSR had in the 1980s. What role did they play in its collapse?
What socio-economic problems did segregation in South Africa cause?
History of economic development in the UAE. Discuss the economic miracle in the UAE and Dubai. Explain how the government could turn the city of Dubai into one of the most famous tourist destinations. What strategies were applied?
Gender inequality and socio-economic development .
The problem of poverty in Venezuela.
How the socio-economic and political position of women changed between 1880 and 1940.
The economic impact of COVID-19 on global trade.

World trade is expected to fall due to the Coronavirus pandemic.

How do the three main economic groups interact with each other? There are three critical economic groups: – Consumers – Producers – Government Analyze the interaction of these groups with each other.
Extended essay: how the study of economic data helped our society to advance?
Western industrialization socio-economic impacts.
Inequality at the top: not all billionaires have the same powers. Analyze billionaires’ net worth, liquidity, political power, and wealth security. Explain why they have unequal social status. What factors determine the influence of billionaires?
An analysis of systems that help us measure agricultural development in a country.
Is social media a useful tool for brand promotion?
The phenomenon of dualism in economic development.

🗺️ International Economics Essay Topics

Globalization and its impact on international economic relations. Define the term globalization. What role does globalization play in international economic relations? Provide specific examples of globalization’s impact on the global political economy.
The lack of justice for the cheap international labor market. Discuss the issue of cheap labor in various countries. Why do some workers often lack fundamental human rights while others abuse moral norms? Analyze the causes and effects of inequality in the workplace.
Japan macroeconomics: problems and possible solutions.
The issue of mercantilism in the history of Great Britain. Analyze the rise and development of mercantilism in the history of Great Britain. To solidify your ideas, provide persuasive arguments, and appropriate examples of mercantilism.
Why does the problem of environmental protection remain unresolved among global economies?
Nissan Motor company’s international business.
International environmental concerns in economics: the case of China .
The issue of international criminal justice in industry. Explain why international businesses often avoid criminal justice after wrongdoings. Select one case of unethical behavior of a company’s CEO or regular employee. Briefly introduce the problem. What were the causes and effects? How was the issue resolved? Express your own opinion regarding the lack of criminal justice in business.
The economy of Singapore and its role in international trade.
International microeconomics trade dispute case study: US-China dispute on the exportation of raw materials.
The phenomenon of the “gig economy” and its impact on the global economy.
The effect of population growth in the international economy.
International economics in the context of globalization.

Technological and political changes have chipped away at the barriers separating nations.

How does Brexit affect the economy of the European Union? Analyze the immediate impact of Brexit on the EU’s economy. Predict future advantages and disadvantages of Brexit for both: Great Britain and the EU.
South Africa: international agribusiness, trade, and financing.
Historical essay: the economy of the Dutch East India company.
The issue of Mozambique’s economy and possible solutions. Investigate the issue of extreme poverty in Mozambique. What are some possible solutions to the problem of poverty? Base your suggestions on the country’s cultural, historical, and geographical aspects.
Imbalances in the global economy. Discuss the imbalances between trading countries on the scale of the global economy. What solutions would you suggest to deal with this issue?
How will global economies adapt to China’s growing power?
Etihad Airways company managerial economics.

🛠️ Labor Economics Essay Topics

Ford Motor company’s labor economics.
Labor economics: child labor.
The UPS firm perspective: the labor market.
Gender inequality of wage rate in modern business. Research how and why gender inequality is still an issue in the modern world of economics. What are some ways to deal with the problem? Present your ideas accurately and effectively. Provide solid arguments and appropriate examples to prove your position.
What are the best ways to increase labor productivity in business?
Labor unions adverse effects on economics.
The decrease of the labor force in modern industries. Talk about the rising rates of robotization in the majority of industries. How will it affect the traditional labor force? Comment on the problem of unemployment caused by labor automatization.
Violations of labor rights of workers.
Modern labor essay: how can an entrepreneur guarantee the minimum wage to their workers?
How can labor geography help develop a special economic zone? Talk about labor geography and its effects on developing an exclusive economic zone. How does the geopolitical location of a particular country influence its level of economic development?
Entrepreneurship in the organic cosmetics sphere.
Gender-oriented labor trade unions. A case study. Discuss the gender-oriented trade unions and analyze their impact on our society.
Child labor in the Turkish cotton industry.

The Syrian refugee crisis increased the risks of child labor in Turkey.

The connection between economic growth and demography. Analyze the connection between economic growth and its demographic context. Investigate both sides: – The issue of overpopulation – The problem of low birth rate. From an economic perspective, what problem is more dangerous?
The issue of sex discrimination in the workplace.
The effects of Landrum-Griffin Labor Act. Explore the labor Act of Landrum-Griffin that was passed in the US Congress in 1959. Discuss its implications and consequences. Discuss its implications and consequences.

🌆 Urban Economics Essay Topics

Cities and their role in aggregate economics.
Urbanization in Hong Kong and its effects on citizens.
The urban planning of the city of New York: a critical analysis. Analyze the urban history of NY. How has the city been developing? Discuss revolutionary solutions to the past and problems of modern times.
The impact of a city’s design on the local traffic.
Dubai’s spatial planning: creative solutions for building a city in the desert.
Globalization, urban political economy, and economic restructuring.
How do urban areas affect local wildlife? Comment on how modern production technologies in urban areas impact the natural diversity of wildlife. What impact does the rapid economic progress have on the environment? Suggest possible solutions.
Urban sociology: does the city make us better people?
Why should people be more careful about investing in real estate? Discuss the issues of overinvestment into real estate. Consider the economic crisis of 2008 as an example.
How can regional authorities help improve a city?
Urban life and its effects on education.
The economic development of a city’s metropolitan area: challenges and solutions.
Main factors for the emergence of cities in the Middle Ages.
The ethics of relocation: is it justified? Talk about the case of relocating locals when building projects of great magnitude. To what extent can it be justified? Mention its economic and ethical side.
The difficulties behind the construction of “green” buildings. Discuss the relatively new phenomenon of environmentally friendly buildings. Analyze both sides: the pros and cons. What obstacles lie behind the “green” building? What opportunities do the “green” buildings offer? Elaborate on your ideas by providing clear arguments or counterarguments.
What factors play a critical role in the success of retail productivity in cities?

⚽ Sports Economics Essay Topics

Do teams with higher budgets perform better on the field?
Corruption in European football leagues: a critical analysis. Investigate the corruption issue in the European football leagues. State reasons and solutions for the problem.
The managerial catastrophe of Arsenal F.C.

The NextG sports company’s communication planning.
Roger D. Blair’s Sports Economics literary review. Write a literary analysis of Sports Economics by Roger D. Blair. Discuss his opinion on the economy of sports. Do you agree or disagree with his position? Provide compelling supportive arguments or strong counterarguments.
How significant is the impact factor of a local team on a city’s economy?
Kinsmen Sports Centre: marketing metrics innovation.
What role does statistical data play in sports? Analyze the part of economic statistical data in different sports organizations. How can statistics help to develop an effective financing plan? Comment on the impact of financing on the performance of a sports club.
Sports and energy drinks marketing analysis.
Is there a connection between the lack of money and any contemporary issues in a sports team?
Performance-enhancing drugs in sports.
The business of FIFA: a financial analysis. Investigate the finances of FIFA. What economic factors make them so influential in the modern world of football?
The global sports retail industry.
The Olympics: logistics and economy. Discuss the logistics behind the Olympics Games event. How the Olympic Games impact the economy of the host country?

💉 Health Economics Essay Topics

Is bioprinting the new future of medicine? Analyze the new market of organ printing and discuss its challenges. Investigate bioprinting from an economic perspective. Will the outputs cover the inputs? How will bioprinting impact the financial aspect of the health care sector?
Cost-effectiveness of pharmaceutical products in the United States. Comment on the immense cost-effectiveness of pharmaceuticals. What do you think is the price of pharmaceutical products reasonable? Is it ethical to set extremely high prices on the medicals?
An economic evaluation of the antibiotics market.
Health economics-SIC and NAICS.
The financial side of cancer treatment: is it too expensive? Analyze the market for cancer treatment programs in various countries. Explore its costs and complications. What are some possible ways to reduce the price of cancer treatment and make it more affordable?
The issue of fast food consumption: a multibillion-dollar market . Fast food has always been one of the notable causes of obesity, diabetes, and other illnesses. Investigate the economic aspect of the issue. Are high profits from fast food production worth peoples’ health conditions?
History and evolution of healthcare economics.

Health has become a dominant economic and political issue over the past years.

The financial management of a hospital: a case study.
The issue of public healthcare in the USA. Write about the long-standing issue of medical sector operation in the USA. Analyze its history, financial, and social aspects.
Demand in healthcare economics.
What are the economic outcomes of a global pandemic? Taking the COVID-19 outbreak as an example, conduct research on the effects of a pandemic on the economy. How does it affect local economies? What impact does the quarantine have on the international economy? Provide appropriate examples to support your ideas.

💼 Business Economics Essay Topics

When does an advertising campaign become unnecessary?
Sustainable development of a nation’s economic stability. Discuss how a country can create a sustainable economy. Provide bright examples to solidify your position.
How can a small business compete with monopolies?
What are the limitations of the Lewis Model?
The phenomenon of inflation: inevitable liability or a land of opportunity for our economies? Explore the process of inflation in modern economies. Does it only have adverse effects on the countries’ economies? Are there any advantages of inflation? Analyze it from a positive perspective.
Economics, business, and sugar in the UK.
The shadow economy of the finance sector. Dive into the backstage of the finance sector and research various “grey” areas where business can be done.
Chinese and Japanese business systems comparison.
Oil demand and its changes in the XXI century: a critical analysis. Analyze the oil sector and write about its fluctuation in the XXI century. How did the changes in oil demand affect the global economy?
The social and economic impact of mass emigration.

🌠 40 More Good Economic Essay Topics

Scrolled through our ideas, but can’t find a suitable topic for yourself? No worries! We have more issues to share with you.

So, don’t stress out. Take a look at our list of economical essay topics. Here are 40 more ideas focusing on globalization and the history of economics.

🏤 Economic Globalization Essay Topics

The impact of globalization on the tourist industry in the Caribbean . Analyze both: the positive and negative effects of globalization on the Caribbean. To make your paper well-structured, explore two advantages and two disadvantages. Don’t forget to improve your essay with strong evidence and appropriate examples!
Toyota Motor Corporation: impacts of globalization.
What are the effects of globalization on developing countries? To what extent do developing countries profit from globalization? Research the subject by comparing various examples.
Defining globalization and its effects on current trade.
Economic growth as a result of globalization: proper financial strategies. How can a country successfully achieve prosperity with globalization? Discuss proper economic strategies.
The socio-political significance of the IT industry’s globalization.
Human trafficking in developing nations as a result of globalization.

Modern-day trafficking of humans has become more rewarding for traffickers due to globalization.

Globalization and criminal justice policy.
What are the advantages and disadvantages of globalization?
Globalization challenges and countermeasures.
The effect of globalization on worldwide trade and employment rates.
Economic integration within the European Union: a critical analysis. Talk about the history of economic integration within the EU. What are the negative and positive outcomes of economic integration?
Globalization and food in Japan.
Does globalization bring negative effects to cultural heritage and identity?
The Industrial Revolution as the first step towards globalization. Focus on the Industrial Revolution in Europe. Discuss its precursors and consequences. Why is the revolution considered to be a starting point of globalization? Provide specific examples of globalization processes that occurred in the economic sector after the Industrial revolution.
Globalization 2.0 an analysis of a book by David Rieff.
Globalization effects on fundamentalism growth.
Does direct investment by foreign businesses come with strings attached? Dive into the shady area of globalization and discuss how to direct foreign investment can bring problems of geopolitical scale.
Effects of globalization on sexuality.
Alibaba’s globalization strategy: an economic analysis.

🧮 Economic History Essay Topics

The rapid economic growth of Europe during the Age of Discovery. Analyze the factors that brought economic growth to Europe during the Age of Discovery. What factors contributed to the dynamic economic progress of that time?
Brazil’s economic history.
History of capitalism: from the Renaissance to the United States of America. Discuss the origins of capitalism and its centuries-long path towards XXth century America. How the establishment of capitalism impacted the economy of the USA?
Max Weber: economic history, the theory of bureaucracy, and politics as a vocation.
2008 Economic Crisis: origins and fallout. Talk about the 2008 Financial Crisis. Discuss its causes and outcomes. What should have been done differently to avoid the global crisis? Comment on the economic strategies countries used to recover from it.
The economic marvel of Communist China: from rags to riches.
What made world economic growth of the Renaissance possible?

Renaissance Europe had a very diverse economy.

The economic history of Canada: how did the settlers facilitate economic growth?
What did the major powers of the XIXth century base their economies on?
The Rothschilds: political and financial role in the Industrial Revolution. Research the dynasty of Rothschilds and how they came to power. What was their role in Europe’s Industrial Revolution?
The link between the “oil curse” and the economic history of Latin America.
Roman Empire’s monetary policy: a socio-economic analysis.
How did the demand for different goods change their value in the 2000s years? Analyze the demand for goods in the 2000s years and their change in value. Why do these fluctuations in demand for products and services occur?
The history of economic thought.
Soviet Union’s economic timeline: from the new Economic Policy to Reformation. Discuss the economic issues of the Soviet Union from the historical perspective. Why did the Soviet Union collapse? What improvements in the financial sector should have been done?
History of France economics over the past 20 years.
The history of economic analysis.
The concept of serfdom and slavery as the main economic engine of the past. Dive into the idea of feudalism and serfdom. Discuss its social and economic aspects.
The World Bank’s structure, history, activities.
The history of Islamic banking: concepts and ideas.

💫 How to Write an Economics Essay?

Generally, essay writing on economics has the same structure as any other essay. However, there are some distinctive features of economic papers. Thus, it is essential to figure them out from the very beginning of your work.

You might be wondering what those aspects of the economic paper are. Well, we have an answer.

An economic essay usually relies on the common essay structure.

Below, you will find a detailed plan that explains the fundamental concepts of the essay writing process. So, don’t hesitate to use our tips! They are indeed helpful.

Pick a topic and dissect it. Picking the right topic is the very basis of writing a successful essay. Think of something that you will be interested in and make sure you understand the issue clearly. Also, don’t forget to check our ultimate economics essay topics and samples list!

Research it. After selecting the right idea from our economical essay topics, research your subject thoroughly. Try to find every fascinating and intriguing detail about it. Remember that you can always ask your fellow students, friends, or a teacher for help.

Come up with a thesis statement. A thesis statement is an essential element of your essay. It will determine your focus and guide the readers throughout your paper. Make your thesis secure and try to catch the reader’s attention using context and word choice.

Outline your essay. Never underestimate the power of a well-structured outline! Creating an essay outline can significantly help you to determine your general plan. Evaluate which economic framework you will be using to address the issue. State the main points of your thesis and antithesis. Make sure that they answer the central question of your work.

Write your introduction. First and foremost, a practical introduction should capture the readers’ attention and state the essay’s key topic. So, put enough effort to develop an outstanding introduction. It will create the first impression of your paper.

Moreover, an introduction should include a thesis statement. As we have mentioned above, a thesis plays a crucial role. Thus, make sure it is clearly stated.

Another significant feature of the introduction is its coherence with the body of your essay. Consequently, the introductory paragraph’s last statement has to present the subject of the next section, generically. Also, keep in mind that no more than three key points can be discussed in a paper, even if it is an extended essay.

Thoroughly work on the body paragraphs. Usually, the body of the essay contains several paragraphs. The number of these paragraphs will depend on the nature of your question. Be sure to create one section for every critical point that you make. This will make your paper properly-structured, and the reader will quickly get your ideas. For your convenience, we created a plan to develop your ideas in each paragraph, So, use it and make your writing process easier!

Argument. Present your argument in the topic sentence of the paragraph in a way that directly answers the question. A hint: the most effective way to introduce the critical point is to place the topic sentence at the beginning of the paragraph. This will help the readers to concentrate their attention on a specific idea.
Comment and discussion. Explain the meaning of your argument and provide an economic analysis. Present clear evidence and persuasive arguments to solidify your position.
Connection. Link your comments with the vital point of the paragraph. Demonstrate the coherence of your evidence with the point.
Diagrams, tables, charts. If necessary, provide the reader with visual aids. Sometimes, an appropriate diagram or a suitable chart can say more than words. Besides, your paper will look more professional if you use any kind of visual aids.

Conclude your essay. In your conclusion, summarize and synthesize your work by restating your thesis. Also, it is crucial to strengthen it by mentioning the practical value of your findings. Remember to make your essay readable by choosing appropriate wording and avoiding too complex grammar constructions.

Create a reference list at the bottom of your economic essay if you referred to sources.

Thank you for visiting our page! Did you enjoy our article and learned something new? We are glad to help you. Don’t forget to leave a comment and share the article with others!

🔗 References

High School Economics Topics: Econlib, The Library of Economics and Liberty
Guide to Writing an Economics Essay: The Economics Tutor
How to Write the Introduction of Your Development Economics Paper: David Evans, Center For Global Development
Senior Essay: Department of Economics, Yale University
Developing A Thesis: Maxine Rodburg and The Tutors of the Writing Center at Harvard University
Academic Essay Writing, Some Guidelines: Department of Economics, Carleton University
The Writing Process: Writing Centre Resource Guide, LibGuides at Dalhousie University
Research Papers: KU Writing Center, the University of Kansas
Unpacking the Topic: University of Southern Queensland
Economic Issues: PIIE, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Areas of Research: EPI, Economic Policy Institute
Top 100 Economics Blogs Of 2023: Prateek Agarwal, Intelligent Economist
Current Environmental Economic Topics, Environmental Economics: US EPA, United States Environmental Protection Agency
Hot Topics in the U.S. Economy: The Balance
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Economic Essays Grade 12

Grade 12 Economic Essays for the Next Three-Year Cycle (2021-2023)

Discuss in detail the markets within the FOUR-SECTOR model (Circular Flow)

Discuss in detail 'The new economic paradigm'/Explain the 'smoothing of cycles (Business Cycles)

Discuss in detail the features underpinning forecasting (Business Cycles)

Discuss in detail the main objectives of the public sector in the economy (Public Sector)

Discuss in detail the reason(s) for public sector failure (link them to typical problems experienced through public sector provisioning) (Public Sector)

Discuss in detail the reasons for international trade (Foreign Exchange Markets)

Discuss in detail export promotion (Protectionism and FreeTrade)

Discuss in detail the arguments in favour of protectionism (Protectionism and Free Trade)

Discuss in detail the demand-side approach in promoting growth and development in South Africa (Growth and development)

Discuss in detail the following South African growth and development policies and strategic initiatives (Growth and development)

Discuss in detail South Africa's initiaties (endeavours) in regional development (Industrial Development Policies)

Discuss in detail the following economic indicators (Economic and Social Performance Indicators

Discuss in detail the following social indicators (Economic and Social Performance Indicators)

Discuss in detail the various equilibrium positions with the aid of graphs-PERFECT MARKET (Perfect Market)

Discuss the monopoly in detail (with/without the aid of graphs) (Imperfect Market)

Examine the oligopoly in detail (Imperfect Market)

Compare and contrast any TWO types of market structures

Discuss in detail how the following factors lead to the misallocation of resources in the market (Market Failures)

Discuss in detail state intervention as a consequence of market failures, with the aid of relevant graphs (Market Failures)

Discuss in detail the consequences of inflation (Inflation)

Discuss in detail the measures to combat demand-pull and/or cost-push inflation (Inflation)

Examine in detail the effects of tourism (Tourism)

Examine in detail the benefits of tourism (Tourism)

Discuss in detail how the government can ensure sustainable development (Environmental Sustainability)

Discuss in detail the following problems and the international measures taken to ensure sustainable development (Environmental Sustainability)

ESSAYS FOR THE NEXT THREE-YEAR CYCLE (2021-2023)

Macroeconomics- paper1.

Discuss in detail the markets within the FOUR-SECTOR model (Circular Flow) INTRODUCTION The economy of a country is regarded as an open economy because of the presence of households, producers, government, foreign sector and financial sector as active participants in the economy. Markets link the participants in the economy 🗸🗸 [Max 2]

BODY: MAIN PART PRODUCT / GOODS/ OUTPUT MARKET🗸

These are the markets for consumer goods and services🗸🗸
Goods are defined as tangible items, like food, clothes, cars, etc. that satisfies some human wants or needs🗸🗸
Buying and selling of goods that are produced in markets e.g. 🗸🗸
Capital Goods market for trading of buildings and machinery🗸🗸
Consumer goods market for trading of durable consumer goods, semi-durable consumer goods and non-durable consumer goods. 🗸🗸
Services are defined as non-tangible actions and include wholesale and retail, transport and financial markets. 🗸🗸

FACTOR / RESOURCE/ INPUT MARKETS🗸

Households sell factors of production on the markets: rent for natural resources, wages for labour interest for capital and profit for entrepreneurship🗸🗸
The factor market includes the labour, property and financial markets. 🗸🗸
The market where services of factors of production are traded e.g. labour is hired and capital is borrowed – these services earn wages, interest, rent and profits🗸🗸

FINANCIAL MARKETS🗸

They are not directly involved in the production of good and services, but act as a link between households , the business sector and other participants with surplus finds🗸🗸
E.g. banks, insurance companies and pension funds🗸

MONEY MARKETS🗸

In the money markets short term loans, and very short term funds are saved and borrowed by consumers and business enterprises 🗸🗸
Products sold in the market are bank debentures, treasury bills and government bonds 🗸🗸
The simplest form exists when parties make demand and short-term deposits and borrow on short term 🗸🗸
The SARB is the key institution in the money market🗸🗸

CAPITAL MARKETS🗸

In the capital markets long term funds are borrowed and saved by consumers and the business sector🗸🗸
The Johannesburg Security Exchange (JSE) is a key institution in the capital 🗸🗸
Products sold in this market are mortgage bonds and shares🗸🗸

FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS🗸

On the foreign exchange markets businesses buy/ sell foreign currency to pay for imported goods and services🗸🗸
These transactions occur in banks and consists of electronic money transfers from one account to another🗸🗸
The leading centres/ most important foreign exchange markets are in London, New York and Tokyo 🗸🗸
e.g. traveller’s cheques to travel abroad🗸
Flows of private and public goods and services are real flows and they are accompanied by counter flows of expenditure and taxes on the product market🗸🗸
Factor services are real flows and they are accompanied by counter flows of income on the factor market🗸🗸
Imports and exports are real flows and are accompanied by counter flows of expenditure and revenue on the foreign exchange market🗸🗸[Max 26]
A change in investment of R 10m will result in a change in income of R 20m🗸🗸
An increase in investment causes the expenditure function to shift upwards from C1 to C2 so that C1 is parallel to C2🗸🗸
The effect of the increase in investment is that the total expenditure will increase from R 20m to R 30m🗸🗸
The increase in the value of output (Y) is greater than the increase in the expenditure (E) 🗸🗸 (Explanation must comply with the figures supplied in the graphical presentation) [Max 4] [Max 10]

CONCLUSION The circular flow ensures continued interdependence and coordination of the economic activities in the economy / markets are critically important institutions in our economic system, because they regulate the supply and demand and safeguard price stability and general business confidence. 🗸🗸 [Any other relevant conclusion] [Max 2]

INTRODUCTION The new economic paradigm in terms of the smoothing of business cycles discourages monetary policy makers from using monetary and fiscal policies to fine tune the economy but rather encourages achieving stability through sound long term decisions relating to demand and supply in the economy/smoothing out the painful part of economic down-fall that is part of the market economy🗸🗸 (Accept other relevant definition/description of smoothing/new economic paradigm). [Max 2]

BODY: MAIN PART The new economic paradigm is embedded in the demand and supply side policies. 🗸🗸

Demand-side policies

It focuses on aggregate demand in the economy🗸🗸
When households, firms and the government spend more, demand in the economy increases. 🗸🗸
This makes the economy grow but lead to inflation.🗸🗸
Aggregate demand increases more quickly than aggregate supply and this causes price increases. 🗸🗸
If the supply does not react to the increase in demand, prices will increase. 🗸🗸
This will lead to inflation (a sustained and considerable in the general price level) 🗸🗸

Unemployment:

Demand-side policies are effective in stimulating economic growth. 🗸🗸
Economic growth can lead to an increase in demand for labour. 🗸🗸
As a result more people will be employed and unemployment will increase. 🗸🗸
As unemployment decreases inflation is likely to increase. 🗸🗸
This relationship between unemployment and inflation is illustrated in the Phillips curve. 🗸🗸
The PC curve shows the initial situation. A is the point of intersection of the PC curve with the x- axis. It shows the natural rate of unemployment, for instance 14%🗸🗸
At point A inflation rate is zero. 🗸🗸
If unemployment falls to C for instance, 8%, inflation caused by wage increases is at 6%.🗸🗸
If unemployment increases from C to B to A, inflation falls from 6% to 2% to 0%.🗸🗸

Supply-side policies Reduction of costs 🗸

Infrastructural services: reasonable charge and efficient transport, communication, water
services and energy supply. 🗸🗸
Administrative costs: these costs include inspection, reports on applications
of various laws, regulations and by-laws, tax returns and returns providing statistical
information.
It adds to costs and businesses carry a heavy burden 🗸🗸
Cash incentives: it includes subsidies for businesses to locate in neglected areas where unemployment is high and compensation to exporters for certain costs they
incurred in development of export markets. 🗸🗸

Improving the efficiency of inputs 🗸

Tax rates: low tax rates can serve as an incentive to workers. It will improve the productivity and output. 🗸🗸
Capital consumption: replacing capital goods regularly creates opportunities for businesses to keep up with technological development and better outputs🗸🗸
Human resource development: to improve the quality of manpower by improving health care, education and training. 🗸🗸
Free advisory service: these promote opportunities to export. 🗸🗸

Improving the efficiency of markets 🗸

Deregulation: removal of laws, regulations and by-laws and other forms of government controls makes the market free. 🗸🗸
Competition: encourages the establishment of new businesses 🗸🗸
Levelling the play field: private businesses cannot compete with public enterprises 🗸🗸 Answers must be in full sentences and well described with examples to be able to obtain 2 marks per fact. Learners should be awarded 1 mark per heading or sub-heading to a maximum of 8 marks. (8 x 1) (8) [Max 26]

Explanation: The above graph shows:

Aggregate demand (AD) and aggregate supply (AS) are in equilibrium at point C. 🗸🗸
If aggregate demand is stimulated so that it moves to AD1 and aggregate supply responds promptly and relocates at AS1; a larger real output becomes available without any price increases. 🗸🗸
Supply is often sticky and fixed in the short term. 🗸🗸
Therefore, if aggregate demand increases to AD1 and aggregate supply does not respond, intersection is at point F. Real production increases but so does the price, in other words, with more inflation. 🗸🗸
The aggregate demand locates at any position to the left of AS1 inflation prevails. 🗸🗸
The solution is to create conditions that ensure supply is more flexible. 🗸🗸
If the cost of increasing production is completely flexible, a great real output can be supplied at any given price level. 🗸🗸 [Max 10]

CONCLUSION It is clear from the discussion above that it is critically important to manage the aggregate supply and demand to ensure stability in the economy. 🗸🗸 [Accept any relevant higher order conclusion] [Max 2]

INTRODUCTION Accurate prediction is not possible in Economics. The best the economists can do is to try and forecast what might happen. There are a number of techniques available to help economists to forecast business cycles, e.g. economic indicators 🗸🗸 OR Successive periods of contraction and expansion of economic activities 🗸🗸 [Accept any other relevant introduction] [Max 2]

BODY: MAIN PART Business cycle indicators Leading economic indicators 🗸

These are indicators that change before the economy changes / coincide with the reference turning point 🗸🗸
They give consumers, business leaders and policy makers a glimpse (advance warnings) of where the economy might be heading. 🗸🗸
Peak before a peak in aggregate economic activity is reached.
Most important type of indicator in helping economists to predict what the economy will be like in the future 🗸🗸
When these indicators rise, the level of economic activities will also rise in a few months' time/an upswing 🗸🗸
E.g. job advertising space/inventory/sales ratio🗸

Coincident economic indicators🗸

They move at the same time as the economy / if the turning point of a specific time series variable coincides with the reference turning point🗸🗸
It indicates the actual state of the economy🗸🗸
E.g. value of retail sales. 🗸
If the business cycle reaches a peak and then begins to decline, the value of retail sales will reach a peak and then begin to decline at same time🗸🗸

Lagging economic indicators🗸

They do not change direction until after the business cycle has changed its direction🗸🗸
They serve to confirm the behaviour of co-incident indicators🗸🗸
E.g. the value of wholesalers' sales of machinery🗸
If the business cycle reaches a peak and begins to decline, we are able to predict the value of new machinery sold🗸🗸

Composite indicator🗸

It is a summary of the various indicators of the same type into a single value🗸🗸
Their values are consolidated into a single value , if this is done we find a value of a composite leading , coincident and lagging indicator🗸🗸 Accept ONE example from the table below:
This is the time that it takes for a business cycle to move through one complete cycle (measured from peak to peak) 🗸🗸
It is useful to know the length because the length tends to remain relatively constant over time.🗸🗸
If a business cycle has the length of 10 years it can be predicted that 10 years will pass between successive peaks or troughs in the economy. 🗸🗸
Longer cycles show strength. 🗸🗸
Cycles can overshoot. 🗸🗸

Ways to measure lengths:

Crisis to crisis 🗸🗸
Historical records 🗸🗸
Consensus on businesses experience 🗸🗸

Amplitude 🗸

It is the difference between the total output between a peak and a trough. 🗸🗸
It measures the distance of the oscillation of a variable from the trend line / It is the intensity (height) of the upswing and downswing (contraction and expansion) in economic activity 🗸🗸
A large amplitude during an upswing indicates strong underlying forces – which result in longer cycles 🗸🗸
The larger the amplitude the more extreme the changes that may occur / extent of change 🗸🗸
E.g. During the upswing inflation may increase from 5% to 10%. (100% increase) 🗸🗸
A trend is the movement of the economy in a general direction. 🗸🗸
It usually has a positive slope because the production capacity of the economy increases over time 🗸🗸
Also known as the long term growth potential of the economy. 🗸🗸
The diagram above illustrates an economy which is growing – thus an upward trend (positive slope) 🗸🗸
Trends are useful because they indicate the general direction in which the economy is moving – it indicates the rate of increase or decrease in the level of output🗸🗸

Extrapolation 🗸

Forecasters use past data e.g. trends and by assuming that this trend will continue, they make predictions about the future🗸🗸
Means to estimate something unknown from facts or information that are known 🗸🗸
if it becomes clear that the business cycle has passed through a trough and has entered a boom phase, forecasters might predict that the economy will grow in the months that follow 🗸🗸
It is also used to make economic predictions in other settings e.g. prediction of future share prices🗸🗸

Moving average 🗸

It is a statistical analytical tool that is used to analyse the changes that occur in a series of data over a certain period of time / repeatedly calculating a series of different average values along a time series to produce a smooth curve 🗸🗸
The moving average could be calculated for the past three months in order to smooth out any minor fluctuations 🗸🗸
It is calculated to iron out (minimize) small fluctuations and reveal long-term trends in the business cycle🗸🗸 Answers must be in full sentences and well described with examples to be able to obtain 2 marks per fact. Learners should be awarded 1 mark per 8 headings and examples. [8 x 1=8] [Max 26]

BODY: ADDITIONAL PART

An expansionary monetary policy is implemented when the economy is in recession in order to stimulate economic activities. 🗸🗸
Interest rates can be reduced to encourage spending. 🗸🗸
Households and firms can borrow more and spend more. 🗸🗸
The increased spending increases the level of economic activity. 🗸🗸
Investment will increase and more factors of production will be employed. 🗸🗸
Higher levels of production, income and expenditure will be achieved. 🗸🗸
If the supply of goods and services does not increase in line with an increase in demand, inflation will increase. 🗸🗸
Inflation can be curbed by reducing money supply and availability of credit. 🗸🗸
To dampen demand at the peak the government will be able to reduce the money supply by increasing interest rates. 🗸🗸
Selling government bonds and securities (open market transactions) and reduce the supply of money in circulation. 🗸🗸
Increase the cash reserve requirements to manipulate money creation activities of banks. 🗸🗸
Persuade banks to decrease lending (moral suasion) 🗸🗸
To devaluate the exchange rate (exchange rate policy) 🗸🗸 [Max 10]

CONCLUSION It remain clear that business cycles must be clearly monitored through the indicators available, policy makers must act quickly by using monetary and fiscal instruments in order to prevent instability in the economy. 🗸🗸 [Accept any other relevant conclusion] [Max 2]

INTRODUCTION: The government provides goods and services that are under supplied by the market and therefore plays a major role in regulating economic activity and guiding and shaping the economy. 🗸🗸 [Max 2]

BODY: MAIN PART Objectives:

Economic growth 🗸

Refer to an increase in the production of goods and services 🗸🗸
Measured in terms of Real GDP 🗸🗸
For economic growth to occur, the economic growth rate must be higher than Population growth 🗸🗸
Growth and development in a country benefit its citizens because it often leads to a higher standard of living 🗸🗸

Full employment 🗸

It is when all the people who want to work, who are looking for a job must be able to get a job 🗸🗸
High levels of employment is the most important economic objective of the government 🗸🗸
The unemployment rate increased over the past few years 🗸🗸
Informal sector activities must be promoted because it is an area where employment increase 🗸🗸

Exchange rate stability 🗸

The economy must be manage effectively and effective Fiscal and monetary policy must be used to keep the exchange rate relatively stable 🗸🗸
Depreciation and Appreciation of the currency create uncertainties for producers and traders and should be limited. These uncertainties must be limited 🗸🗸
The SARB changed the Exchange rate from a Managed floating to a free floating exchange rate 🗸🗸

Price stability 🗸

Stable price causes better results in terms of job creation and economic growth 🗸🗸
The SARB inflation target is 3% - 6% and they are successful in keeping inflation within this target 🗸🗸
Interest Rates, based on the Repo Rate are the main instruments used in the stabilisation policy 🗸🗸
The stable budget deficit also has a stabilizing effect on the inflation rate 🗸🗸

Economic equity 🗸

Redistribution of income and wealth is essential 🗸🗸
South Africa uses a progressive income tax system – taxation on profits, taxation on wealth, capital gains tax and taxation on spending, are used to finance free services 🗸🗸
Free social services are basic education; primary health and to finance basic economic services 🗸🗸
E.g. Cash Grant to the poor, e.g. child grants and cash grants to vulnerable people, e.g. disability grants 🗸
Progressive taxation means that the higher income earners pay higher/more taxation 🗸🗸 [Max 26]
Learner responses can be positive or negative.
Follow the argument and see if the learner can produce enough evidence to support his/her answer.

Economic Growth:

SA targets 4–5% economic growth. Previously SA had a 5% growth rate 🗸🗸
In recent years the growth rate decreased steadily (presently below 3%) 🗸🗸

Full Employment:

Compared to foreign countries unemployment is very high. (Expanded – over 30%) 🗸🗸
Efforts by SA government to reduce these figures includes the GEAR strategy, focus on small business enterprises, Public Works Programme 🗸🗸

Exchange rate stability:

SA now operates on a free floating exchange rate system in line with international benchmarks 🗸🗸
Unfortunately our currency has lost its value, with a general trend of depreciation over the last few years 🗸🗸

Price stability:

For the past few years South Africa has managed to remain within the 3–6% target 🗸🗸
The current increase in the repo rate has put constraints on the inflation rate 🗸🗸

Economic equity:

Economic equity has improved (BEE, affirmative action, gender equity) and led to an improvement in economic equity 🗸🗸 [Any 5 x 2] [Max 10]

CONCLUSION: While some successes have been achieved by government, the fulfilling of some of the objectives are compromised by factors like lack of accountability, corruption, budgeting, nepotism and incompetence. 🗸🗸 [Any relevant conclusion] [Max 2]

INTRODUCTION The government responds to market failures by establishing and maintaining state owned enterprises to provide public goods and services 🗸🗸 [Any other relevant introduction] [Max 2]

BODY: MAIN PART

It is required to give an explanation of one's decisions, actions and expenditures over a period of time 🗸🗸
There are mechanisms for evaluating government's economic and financial performance 🗸🗸
That the desired quantities and quality of goods and services for which taxes are raised are delivered 🗸🗸
That monopolies, corruption, nepotism, incompetence and apathy does not occur 🗸🗸
Two important elements of accountability is participation and transparency🗸🗸
Ministerial responsibilities, i.e. the ministers of government departments are responsible for decisions and actions and expenditures 🗸🗸
Parliamentary questioning arises and members of the government departments have to respond 🗸🗸
The national treasury is responsible for treasury control 🗸🗸
The auditor-general reports annually in writing on each government department🗸🗸
Public goods are efficiently provided if Pareto efficiency is achieved 🗸🗸
That is if resources are allocated in such a way that no one can be made better off without making someone else worse off 🗸🗸
Bureaucracy the official rules and procedures. 🗸🗸/insensitivity to the needs of their clients 🗸🗸
Incompetence- the lack of skill or ability to do a task successfully🗸🗸/May have improper qualifications/or an attitude of apathy 🗸🗸
Corruption- the exploitation of a person's position for private gain /taking bribes, committing fraud, nepotism 🗸🗸
State-owned enterprises do not operate according to the forces of supply and demand 🗸🗸
It becomes thus very difficult for state-owned enterprises to assess needs and they are thus prone to under- or over-supplying public goods and services 🗸🗸
The census and other household surveys as well as local government structures provide this type of information 🗸🗸
Since resources are scarce, government must then decide which needs and whose needs are to be satisfied 🗸🗸
In the private sector houses are built according to the price that people are able and willing to pay 🗸🗸
In the public sector housing is regarded as a social responsibility and authorities supply them according to the needs of people 🗸🗸
In a market economy prices are determined by supply and demand 🗸🗸
The objectives of firms are to maximise their profits and they usually set prices to achieve this objective 🗸🗸
Government does not pursue the profit maximisation objective 🗸🗸
Government takes into account certain social, economic, political and environmental conditions as well as public opinion 🗸🗸
Free-of-charge services- this is met from taxes 🗸🗸 and applies to most community goods and collective goods 🗸🗸 (e.g.) defence, police whereby charges and toll fees are levied 🗸
User-charges 🗸 option to charge depends on technical reasons 🗸🗸 (e.g.) cost of providing a double lane road could be recovered by toll charges 🗸 Economic reasons 🗸 such as services like water and electricity 🗸 that have a zero price 🗸 political reasons 🗸 where income distribution is significantly unequal, administrative rationing according to need takes place 🗸🗸 (e.g.) public health and education 🗸
Direct and indirect subsidies direct subsidies are used to cover part of the costs 🗸🗸 (e.g.) urban bus service 🗸 and an indirect subsidy is used to write off accumulated losses or deficits 🗸🗸
Standing charges -called availability charges 🗸🗸 (e.g.) water and electricity 🗸 standing charges goes to meet fixed costs and the price per unit consumed covers variable costs 🗸🗸
Price discrimination - different users have different elastic ties of demand for a good 🗸🗸 (e.g.) commercial and manufacturing businesses pay higher rates than households and they pay on a sliding scale🗸🗸
State-owned enterprises that either render a service or when an existing enterprise is nationalised 🗸🗸
They focus on making a profit and maximizing cost at the expense of the needs of some groups 🗸🗸 (e.g.) Iscor 🗸 SABC, 🗸SAA, Spoornet 🗸
refers to the process whereby state-owned enterprises and state-owned assets are handed over or sold to private individuals 🗸🗸
cost of maintaining and managing state-owned enterprises are high which can lead to higher taxes and larger public debt 🗸🗸
State-owned enterprises are not run as efficiently as private enterprises 🗸🗸
Nationalisation is the process whereby the state takes control and ownership of privately owned assets and private enterprises 🗸🗸
It includes contracting of services, public-private partnerships, increasing competitiveness🗸🗸 [Max 26]

ADDITIONAL PART Possible problems in your community or elsewhere

Lack of drinking water due to burst pipes 🗸🗸
Lack of electricity due to lack of infrastructure (load shedding) 🗸🗸
Lack of schooling – no buildings available – lack of maintenance 🗸🗸
Lack of health services due to lack of staff, infrastructure, strikes 🗸🗸
Lack of adequate housing (RDP) 🗸🗸 [Max 10 marks - List of examples max 5 marks] [Accept any other relevant answer]

CONCLUSION If the above problems are not dealt with timeously by government, government will continue to fail its people in terms of service delivery, seeing many protests occurring regularly 🗸🗸 [Any other relevant higher order conclusion] [Max 2]

INTRODUCTION International trade can be defined as the exchange of goods and services between countries globally. 🗸🗸 These trade agreements are negotiated by protocols and agreement due to the uneven distribution of natural resources globally. 🗸🗸

BODY-MAIN PART The main reasons for international trade.

Demand reasons The size of the population impacts demand.

If there is an increase in population growth, it causes an increase in demand, as more people’s needs must be satisfied. 🗸🗸
Local suppliers may not be able to satisfy this demand. 🗸🗸

The population’s income levels effect demand.

Changes in income cause a change in the demand for goods and services. 🗸🗸 • An increase in the per capita income of people in more disposable income that can be spent on local goods and services, some of which may then have to be imported. 🗸🗸

An increase in the wealth of the population leads to greater demand for goods.

People have access to loans and can spend more on luxury goods, many of which are produced in other countries. 🗸🗸

Preferences and tastes can play a part in the determining of prices,

E.g. customers in Australia have a preference for a specific product which they do not produce and need to import and it will have a higher value than in other countries. 🗸🗸

The difference in consumption patterns is determined

By the level of economic development in the country, e.g. a poorly developed country will have a high demand for basic goods and services but a lower demand for luxury goods. 🗸🗸

Supply reasons Natural resources are not evenly distributed

Across all countries of the world. 🗸🗸
They vary from country to country and can only be exploited in places where these resources exist. 🗸🗸

Climatic conditions

Make it possible for some countries to produce certain goods at a lower price than other countries, e.g. Brazil is the biggest producer of coffee. 🗸🗸

Labour resources

Differ in quantity, quality and cost between countries. 🗸🗸
Some countries have highly skilled, well-paid workers with high productivity levels, e.g. Switzerland. 🗸🗸

Technological resources

Are available in some countries that enable them to produce certain goods and services at a low unit cost, e.g. Japan. 🗸🗸

Specialisation in the production

Certain goods and services allows some countries to produce them at a lower cost than others, e.g. Japan produces electronic goods and sells these at a lower price. 🗸🗸

Capital allows developed countries

Enjoy an advantage over underdeveloped countries. 🗸🗸
Due to a lack of capital, some countries cannot produce all the goods they require themselves. 🗸🗸

ADDITIONAL PART

Buying and selling goods and services from other countries: 🗸🗸
The purchase of goods and services from abroad that leads to an outflow of currency from SA- Imports (M). 🗸🗸
The of goods and services to buyers from other countries leading to an inflow of currency to SA – Exports (X) 🗸🗸
Different factor endowments mean some countries can produce goods and services more efficiently than others- specialisation is therefore possible: 🗸🗸

Absolute Advantage:

Where one country can produce goods with fewer resources than other. 🗸🗸

Comparative Advantage:

Where one country can produce goods at a lower opportunity cost it sacrifices less resources in production. 🗸🗸

CONCLUSION International trade is important of countries to survive economically, as barriers to trade would disadvantage all countries, due to their interdependency globally. 🗸🗸 [Any other relevant higher order conclusion] [Max 2]

ECONOMIC PURSUITS-PAPER 1

Discuss in detail export promotion (Protectionism and Free Trade)

INTRODUCTION Export promotion refers to measures taken by governments increase production of goods and services that can be exported. The government provides incentives to encourage production 🗸🗸 [Max 2]

BODY: MAIN PART REASONS:

Export promotion measures lower cost of production which makes it easier to compete on the international market 🗸🗸
Achieve significant export-led economic growth🗸🗸
Export enlarges production capacity of country because more and larger manufacturing industries are established. 🗸🗸
The first step to export-led economic growth is to implement policies that encourage the establishment of industries to produce goods and services for export markets🗸🗸

METHODS: Exports are promoted through: Incentives🗸

Export incentives include information on export markets, research with regard to new markets, concessions on transport charges, export credit and export credit guarantees and publicity commending successful exporters🗸🗸
This will encourage manufacturers to export an increased volume of their production🗸🗸
Trade missions help to market SA products abroad🗸🗸and supply SA companies with information about potential markets 🗸🗸

Direct Subsidies🗸

Described as direct because it involves government expenditure. 🗸🗸
Include cash payments to exporters, refunds on import tariffs and employment subsidies.
The aim is to increase the competitiveness of exporting company🗸🗸 reduce cost of production🗸🗸and explore and establish overseas markets🗸🗸

Indirect subsidies

Regarded as indirect because it results in the government receiving less revenue🗸🗸 e.g. general tax rebates,
Tax concessions on profits earned from exports or on capital invested to produce export goods, refunding
Of certain taxes e.g. custom duties on imported goods used in the manufacturing process🗸🗸
Allows companies to lower their prices and enables them to compete in international markets🗸🗸
Challenge for governments to design incentives and subsidies in such a way that prices of export goods can't be viewed as dumping prices🗸🗸

Trade neutrality 🗸

Can be achieved if incentives in favour of export production are introduced
Up to point that neutralises the impact of protectionist measures in place🗸🗸
E.g. subsidies equal to magnitude of import duties can be paid🗸

Export processing zones (EPZs) 🗸

Is free-trade enclave within a protected area –
Is fenced and controlled industrial park that falls outside
Domestic customs area, and usually located near harbour or airport 🗸🗸 NOTE : For the response with regard to the effectiveness of export promotion methods, a maximum of 5 marks can be allocated.
No limitations on size and scale since world market is very large🗸🗸
Cost and efficiency of production based on this and organised along lines of comparative advantage🗸🗸
Increased domestic production will expand exports to permit more imports and may result in backward linkage effects that stimulate domestic production in related industries🗸🗸
Exchange rates are realistic and there is no need for exchange control and quantitative restrictions🗸🗸
Value can be added to natural resources of the country 🗸🗸
Creates employment opportunities 🗸🗸
Increase in exports has positive effect on balance of payments 🗸🗸
Increase in production leads to lower domestic prices, which benefit local consumers🗸🗸

DISADVANTAGES

Real cost of production 🗸 subsidies and incentives reduce total cost of production which must be met from sales🗸🗸 real cost is thus concealed by subsidies🗸🗸products cannot compete in open market 🗸🗸
Lack of competition 🗸 businesses charge prices that are so low that they force competitors out of the market 🗸🗸
Increased tariffs and quotas 🗸can be against spirit of provisions of WTO🗸🗸overseas competitors retaliate with tariffs and quotas🗸🗸 goods are sold domestically below their real cost of production (export subsidies and dumping) 🗸🗸
Protection of labour-intensive industries 🗸 developed countries maintain high levels of effective protection for their industries that produce labour-intensive goods in which developing countries already have or can achieve comparative advantage 🗸🗸
Withdrawal of incentives often leads to closure of effected companies. 🗸🗸
Incentives often lead to inefficiencies in the production process, since companies don't have to do their best to compete🗸🗸
Can be seen as dumping 🗸🗸 [Max 26]

BODY: ADDITIONAL PART How successful is South Africa in protecting the local textile industry against foreign competition?

Not successful: 🗸 Many domestic textile manufacturers closed down due to unfair international competition 🗸🗸 Many wholesalers make use of suppliers from abroad 🗸🗸 e.g. Woolworths/Walmart🗸
Dumping still occurs – European manufacturers still dump clothing in Africa out of season at prices below cost 🗸🗸 Job losses due to a lack of protection in this industry 🗸🗸 [Accept any motivation relating to success indicators] [Max 10]

CONCLUSION South Africa's international trade policy facilitates globalisation thereby impacting positively on the balance of payment. 🗸🗸 [Accept any other relevant conclusion] [Max 2]

INTRODUCTION Protectionism refers to a deliberate policy on the part of the government to erect trade barriers, such as tariffs and quotas, in order to protect domestic industries against international competition. 🗸🗸 [Accept any other relevant definition] [Max 2]

BODY-MAIN PART Raising revenue for the government

Import tariffs raise revenue for the government. 🗸🗸
In smaller countries the tax base is often small due to low incomes of individuals and businesses. 🗸🗸
Low incomes do not provide much in the form of income taxes and therefore custom duties on imports is a significant source of income or revenue. 🗸🗸

Protecting the whole industrial base

Maintaining domestic employment. 🗸🗸
Countries with high unemployment are continuously pressured to stimulate employment creation and therefore resort to protectionism in order to stimulate industrialisation. 🗸🗸
It is thought that using protectionism the country’s citizens would purchase more domestic products and raise domestic employment. 🗸🗸
These measures on domestic employment creation at the expense of other countries, led to such measures as “beggar-my-neighbour” policies. 🗸🗸
Applying import policies is likely to reduce other countries ability to buy country’s exports and may provoke retaliation. 🗸🗸

Protecting workers

It is argued that imports from other countries with relatively low wages represent unfair competition and threaten the standard of living of the more highly paid workers of the local industries. 🗸🗸
Local industries would therefore be unable to compete because of higher wages pushing up the price levels of goods. 🗸🗸
Protection is thus necessary to prevent local wage levels from falling or even to prevent local businesses from closing down due to becoming unprofitable. 🗸🗸
Competition from low-wage countries may also reflect the fact that those countries have a comparative advantage in low-skilled labour-intensive industries. 🗸🗸

Diversifying the industrial base

Overtime countries need to develop diversified industries to prevent overspecialisation. 🗸🗸
A country relying too heavily on the export of one or a few products is very vulnerable. 🗸🗸
If a developing country’s employment and income is dependent on only one or two industries, there is the risk that world fluctuations in prices and demand and supply-side problems could results in significant fluctuations in domestic economic activity. 🗸🗸
Import restrictions may be imposed on a range of products in order to ensure that a number of domestic industries develop. 🗸🗸

Develop strategic industries

Some industries such as the iron-ore and steel, agriculture, (basic foodstuffs, such as maize), energy (fuels) and electronics (communication) among others, are regarded as strategic industries. 🗸🗸
Developing countries may feel that they need to develop these industries in order to become self-sufficient . 🗸🗸

Protecting specific industries Dumping

Foreign industries may engage in dumping because government subsidies permit them to sell at very low prices or because they are seeking to raise profits through price discrimination. 🗸🗸
The reason for selling products at lower prices may be to dispose of accumulate stocks Of the goods and as a result consumers in the importing country stand to benefit however,
Their long term objective may be to drive out domestic producers and gain control of the market and consumers
Are likely to lose out in the reduction in choice and higher prices that the exporters will be able to charge. 🗸🗸

Infant industries

Usually newly established and find it difficult to survive due to their average costs being higher than that of their well-established foreign competitors. 🗸🗸
However, if they are given protection in their early years they may be able to grow and Thereby take advantage lower their average costs and become competitive and at this point protection can be removed. 🗸🗸

Declining industries/sunset industries

Structural changes in the demand and supply of a good may severely hit an industry such industries should be permitted to go out of business gradually declining industries
Are likely to be industries that no longer have a comparative advantage and however, if they go out of business quickly there may be a sudden and large increase in unemployment. 🗸🗸
Protection may enable an industry to decline gradually thereby allowing time for resources including labour to move to other industries. 🗸🗸
Protecting domestic standards domestic regulations of food safety human rights and environmental standards have been increasingly acting as trade restrictions. 🗸🗸 [Accept any other relevant fact] [Max 26]

ADDITIONAL PART South Africa promotes exports through subsidies

Direct Subsidies

Strict screening measures should be put in place when companies apply for financial assistance. Government expenditure can provide direct financial support to domestic producers for their exports e.g. 🗸🗸
Cash grants offered to South African exhibitors to exhibit their products at exhibitions overseas. To explore new markets. 🗸🗸
Foreign trade missions to explore new markets imposition of tariffs on imports. 🗸🗸
Funds for the formation of formal export councils. 🗸🗸
Subsidies for training or employing personnel. 🗸🗸
Funds for the export market research. 🗸🗸
Product registration and foreign patent registrations. 🗸🗸
Government can refund companies certain taxes to promote exports.
These types of indirect subsidies are:
General tax rebates (Part of the cost of production can be subtracted from the tax that has been paid) 🗸🗸
Tax concessions on profits earned from exports or on capital invested to produce export goods. 🗸🗸
Refunds on import tariffs in the manufacturing process of exported goods companies often use custom duties are paid on these goods and the government refunds them. 🗸🗸 [Max 10]

CONCLUSION Most countries agree that protectionism is harmful to the economy if not well managed. Protectionism is needed especially where industries are young and need expansion or development. 🗸🗸 [Any other relevant higher order conclusion] [Max 2]

INTRODUCTION Economic growth is responsible for the overall growth of the economy, in order to enhance the well being of the economy as a whole. Whereas economic development would focus on the individual well being of the citizens of a country. [Any other relevant higher order conclusion] [Max 2]

BODY-MAIN PART Growth and Development A demand-side approach includes discretionary changes in monetary and fiscal policies with the aim of changing the level of aggregate demand. 🗸🗸

Monetary policy

Is driven by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). 🗸🗸
It aims to stabilise prices by managing inflation. 🗸🗸

Fiscal policy

Is driven by the Department of Finance. 🗸🗸
It aims to facilitate government, political and economic objectives. 🗸🗸
A demand-side approach to economic growth and development does not only depend on fiscal and monetary policy. 🗸🗸
It is dependent on all components of aggregate demand, that is, C, I, X and G. 🗸🗸

South African approach

The South African approach uses both monetary and fiscal measures to influence aggregate demand in the economy. 🗸🗸
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) as the central bank in South Africa formulates the monetary policy. 🗸🗸
They use the following instruments:

Interest rate changes

It is used to influence credit creation by making credit more expensive or cheaper. 🗸🗸
The exchange rate is stabilised by encouraging inflow or outflows. 🗸🗸

Open market transactions

To restrict credit the SARB sells securities. When banks buy these securities money flows from banks to the SARB. 🗸🗸
The banks have less money to lend and cannot extend as much credit as before. 🗸🗸
To encourage credit creation the SARB buys securities. Money flows into the banking system.🗸🗸

Moral suasion

The SARB consults with banks to act in a responsible manner based on the prevailing economic conditions. 🗸🗸

Cash Reserve Requirements

Banks are required to hold a certain minimum cash reserve in the central bank. 🗸🗸
Banks have a limited amount to give out as credit. 🗸🗸
South Africa’s fiscal policy is put into practice through the budgetary process. 🗸🗸
The main purpose of fiscal policy is to stimulate macroeconomic growth and employment, and ensure redistribution of wealth. 🗸🗸
The following instruments are used:

Progressive personal income tax

Higher income earners are taxed at higher tax rates. 🗸🗸
These taxes are used to finance social development. 🗸🗸
The poor benefit more than those with higher incomes. 🗸🗸

Wealth taxes

Properties are levied (taxed) according to their market values. 🗸🗸
Transfer duties are paid when properties are bought. 🗸🗸
Securities (shares and bonds) are taxed when traded. 🗸🗸
Capital gains tax is levied on gains on the sale of capital goods (e.g. properties, shares). 🗸🗸
Estate duties are paid on the estates of the deceased. 🗸🗸
These taxes are used to finance development expenditures which benefit the poor more often. 🗸🗸

Cash benefits

Old age pensions, disability grants, child support and unemployment insurance are cash grants. These are also known as social security payments. 🗸🗸
Benefits in kind (natura benefits) 🗸🗸
These include the provision of healthcare, education, school meals, protection etc. 🗸🗸
When user fees are charged, poor or low income earners pay less or nothing. 🗸🗸
Limited quantities of free electricity and water are provided. 🗸🗸

Other redistribution

Public works programmes, e.g. the Strategic Integrated Projects (SIP) provides employment subsidies and other cash and financial benefits such as training, financing and export incentives.🗸🗸

Land restitution and land redistribution

Land restitution is the return of land to those that have lost it due to discriminatory laws in the past. 🗸🗸
Land redistribution focuses on land for residential (town) and production (farm) for previously disadvantaged groups. 🗸🗸
The money for these programmes is provided in the main budget. 🗸🗸

Subsidies on properties

It helps people to acquire ownership of fixed residential properties. 🗸🗸
E.g. government’s housing subsidy scheme provides funding to all people earning less than R3 500 per month🗸🗸

CONCLUSION The demand-side approach focuses on the expansion of the demand for goods and services produced in the economy. 🗸🗸 OR To ensure economic growth, there should be an adequate and growing demand for goods and services produced in the economy. 🗸🗸

[Any other relevant higher order conclusion] [Max 2]

INTRODUCTION Different growth and development strategies have been implemented in South Africa since 1994, each aimed at addressing particular needs at the time of introduction. 🗸🗸 [Any other relevant introduction] [Max 2]

BODY-MAIN PART The Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP)

The RDP was an integrated, coherent socio-economic policy framework that was implemented directly after our first democratic elections in 1994. 🗸🗸
It seeked to mobilise all our people and our country’s resources toward the final eradication of apartheid and the building of a democratic, non-racial and non-sexist future. 🗸🗸

The RDP was based on six principles.

an integrated and sustainable programme. 🗸🗸
a people-driven process focusing on the needs of the population. 🗸🗸
peace and security for all, aimed at a non-violent society that respects all human rights. 🗸🗸
nation-building, focusing on the needs of all members of society. 🗸🗸
linking reconstruction and development. 🗸🗸
The RDP consisted of many proposals, strategies and policy programmes.
All of these could, however be grouped into five major policy programmes that were linked to each other.

The five key programmes were:

meeting basic needs. 🗸🗸
developing our human resources. 🗸🗸
building the economy. 🗸🗸
democratising the state and society. 🗸🗸
implementing the RDP. 🗸🗸

The Growth, Employment and Redistribution Programme (GEAR)

The GEAR built upon the strategic vision set out in the RDP, i.e. 🗸🗸
The importance of all the objectives of the RDP was reaffirmed but it recognized the implementation and macroeconomic problems that the government had been experiencing in implementing the RDP. 🗸🗸
The RDP placed much more emphasis on disciplined economic policy. 🗸🗸
While still recognizing that there were very serious needs that had to be addressed. 🗸🗸

The Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative for South Africa Programme (AsgiSA).

AsgiSA resulted from government’s commitment to halve unemployment and poverty by 2014. 🗸🗸
The Joint Initiative on Priority Skills Acquisition (Jipsa) was established to address the scarce and critical skills needed to meet AsgiSA’s objectives. 🗸🗸

AsgiSA identified six important factors that prevented growth:

the relative volatility of the currency. 🗸🗸
the cost, efficiency and capacity of the national logistics system. 🗸🗸
shortages of suitably skilled labour, and the spatial distortions of apartheid affecting low-skilled labour costs. 🗸🗸
barriers to entry, limits to competition and limited new investment opportunities. 🗸🗸
the regulatory environment and the burden on small and medium enterprises (SME’s). 🗸🗸
AsgiSA was not intended to be a government programme. 🗸🗸
But rather a national initiative supported by all the key groups in the economy. 🗸🗸
Namely business, labour, entrepreneurs and government and semi-government departments and institutions. 🗸🗸

Joint Initiative on Priority Skills Acquisitions (JIPSA)

It is the skills development arm of ASGISA. Focus is on skills development, especially through the SETAS. 🗸🗸

Expanded Public Works Programme (EPWP)

It is a nationwide government intervention to create employment using labour-intensive methods, and to give people skills they can use to find jobs when their work in the EPWP is done. 🗸🗸

The New Growth Path (NGP)

The New Growth Path (NGP) was released in November 2011. 🗸🗸
This plan is designed to serve as a framework for economic policy, and to be the driver of the country’s job strategy. 🗸🗸

The New Growth Path therefore proposes certain strategies to ensure adequate demand:

Deepening the domestic and regional market by growing employment. 🗸🗸
Increasing incomes and undertaking other measures to equity and income distribution. 🗸🗸
Widening the market for South African goods and services through a stronger focus on exports to the region and other rapidly growing economies. 🗸🗸
On a macroeconomic level the NGP entails accommodating or looser monetary policy combined with stricter fiscal policy to limit inflationary pressures and enhance competitiveness. 🗸🗸
Government spending will be prioritised with the objective of long-term sustainable employment opportunities. 🗸🗸

The microeconomic measures to control inflationary pressures include the following:

A competition policy to supervise monopoly pricing on products and services. 🗸🗸
A review of administered prices to ensure that they do not increase above inflation without compelling reasons. 🗸🗸
Interventions in the case of rapidly rising prices of essential products and services such as private🗸🗸
Healthcare and basic food items. 🗸🗸
Active industrial policy. 🗸🗸
Rural development policy. 🗸🗸
Competition policy. 🗸🗸
Stepping up education and skills development. 🗸🗸
Enterprise development: promoting small business and entrepreneurship; eliminating unnecessary red tape. 🗸🗸
Broad-based Black Economic Empowerment (BBBEE). 🗸🗸
Labour practices. 🗸🗸
Technology policy. 🗸🗸
Developmental trade policies. 🗸🗸
Policies for African development. 🗸🗸
The different growth and development strategies that have been implemented in South Africa since 1994. 🗸🗸
Have all contributed to making our country more prosperous and to address problems created by inequalities of the past. 🗸🗸
However, problems such as a low level of education, unemployment and unequal distribution of income persist. 🗸🗸
The current NGP is a comprehensive policy that is focused on addressing all of these problems. [Any other relevant higher order conclusion] [Max 2]

INTRODUCTION South Africa’s overall objective of Industrial Development Policy is to ensure international competitiveness in its nine provinces. OR Regional development is aimed at increasing the economic livelihood of specific areas or regions. OR Regional development attempts to limit the negative effects of economic activities in only a few areas. OR It attempts to promote the advantages of a more even regional development by using labour and other natural resources and infrastructure in neglected areas. [Accept any relevant introduction] [Max 2]

BODY-MAIN PART SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT INITIATIVES

SDI Programme attracts infrastructure and business investments to underdeveloped areas to create employment. 🗸🗸
Department of Trade and Industry is driving force behind industrial and spatial development. 🗸🗸
DTI plans together with central, provincial and local government, IDC, parastatals and research institutions. 🗸🗸
Industrial Development Policy Programme (Spatial Development) has 2 focus points spatial development initiative (SDI) and financial incentives. 🗸🗸
SDI refers to government’s initiative and economic development potential of certain specific spatial locations in SA. 🗸🗸

Key Objectives:

Stimulate economic activity in selected strategic locations. 🗸🗸
Generate economic growth and foster sustainable industrial development. 🗸🗸
Develop projects of infrastructure in certain areas and finance them through lending and private sector investment. 🗸🗸
Establish private-public partnerships (PPP’s). 🗸🗸

In areas with high poverty and unemployment, SDI focuses on:

High level support in areas where socio-economic conditions require concentrated government assistance. 🗸🗸
Where inherent economic potential exists. 🗸🗸
The approach is towards international competitiveness, regional cooperation and a more diversified ownership base. 🗸🗸

Some of the main focus points of the SDI Programme are:

Lubombo Corridor (agro-tourism, education, craft, commercial and agricultural sectors); 🗸🗸
KwaZulu-Natal (Ports of Durban and Richards Bay); 🗸🗸
West Coast SDI (fishing and industrial ports); 🗸🗸
Coast-2-Coast Corridor with agro-tourism. 🗸🗸
It also makes it possible for private sector businesses to take advantage of the economic potential of underdeveloped areas in private-public partnerships (PPP’s) 🗸🗸
In PPP a private business may provide the capital to build the factory and to buy raw materials and employ labour, while the government provides the capital for the infrastructure such as roads and water and electricity. 🗸🗸
The business benefits from profits and the government benefits from taxes, levies and employment opportunities. 🗸🗸

There are TWO types of PPP’s which are compensated differently: Unitary payments:

Private sector builds and runs a project (it performs the function on behalf of the public sector); the payment provides an acceptable return on the total investment (building cost, maintenance, operational expenses). 🗸🗸
Private sector constructs the project and then is given the right to change a toll fee (e.g. public road); 🗸🗸
The toll covers costs of construction, maintenance, operation. 🗸🗸
The above options can be combined: E.g. hospital (cost of building is an annual payment and a user fee is also charged). 🗸🗸
A track of land that forms a passageway allowing access from one area to another and particular advantages to mining, manufacturing and other businesses. 🗸🗸
Domestic Corridor: e.g. Lubombo, West Coast, Fish River. 🗸🗸
Corridors beyond the South African Borders (SADC) e.g. Maputo Development Corridor Mozambique. 🗸🗸
Reasons in support of South Africa’s regional integration in Southern Africa: have political and stable neighbours have important export markets and a future source of water and energy supplies integration may be a precondition for support from foreign investors, donors and multilateral institutions. 🗸🗸
A robust regional transport system and a solid infrastructure base hold the key to attracting investment into the SADC region – improving competitiveness and promoting trade. 🗸🗸

Advantages from Corridor development:

Greater levels of economic efficiency and productivity compact urban form corridor urban form. 🗸🗸
Corridor developments will often occur due to private investment. 🗸🗸
Intergration of land use and transport planning will lead to generally efficient integration. 🗸🗸
Efficient urbanisation leads to efficient use of land and promotion of an efficient transport system. 🗸🗸

INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ZONES (IDZ’s)

Geographically designed, purpose-built industrial sites providing services tailored for export- orientated industries. 🗸🗸
Physically enclosed and linked to an international port or airport. 🗸🗸
Specifically designed to attract new investment in export-driven industries. 🗸🗸
Falls outside domestic customs zones and able to import items free of customs and trade restrictions, add value and then export their goods. 🗸🗸
Development and management done by private sector. 🗸🗸
Government IDZ policy designed to boost exports and jobs. 🗸🗸
IDZ’s aim to encourage economic growth –attract foreign investment in industrial development – facilitate international competitiveness regarding manufacturing. 🗸🗸 [Max 26]

ADDITIONAL PART FINANCIAL INCENTIVES Small and Medium Enterprise Development Programme (SMEDP) • This incentive has provided a tax-free cash grant for investment in industries in

South Africa. 🗸🗸
E.g. manufacturing, agricultural, processing, aquaculture and tourism. 🗸🗸

Critical Infrastructure Fund Programme (CIF)

A tax-free cash grant incentive for projects has improved critical infrastructure in South Africa. 🗸🗸
E.g. for installation, construction of infrastructure, payment of employees, materials directly consumed during installation. 🗸🗸

Duty Free Incentives (for businesses operating in the IDZ’s)

This has encouraged export-orientated manufacturing to increase their competitiveness 🗸🗸
And helped to promote foreign and local direct investment. 🗸🗸

Foreign Investment Grant (FIG)

This has assisted foreign investors to invest in new manufacturing businesses in SA. 🗸🗸
Benefited in terms of the cost of relocating new machinery and equipment from abroad. 🗸🗸

Strategic Investment Projects (SIP)

This has attracted investment from local and foreign entrepreneurs in manufacturing, computer, research and engineering sectors. 🗸🗸

Skills Support Programme (SIP)

This cash grant for skills development has encouraged greater investment 🗸🗸
In training in general and stimulated the development of new advanced skills. 🗸🗸

Black Businesses Supplier Development Programme (BBSDP)

This 80 % cash grant has provided black-owned enterprises with access to 🗸🗸
Training which has improved management of their enterprises. 🗸🗸

Special Economic Zones (SEZ)

It is an extention to the current financial incetives to further promoted regional development. 🗸🗸
The major incentive is a tax reduction of 15 % for businesses settling in this area. 🗸🗸
This does not mean that existing businesses in the IDZ can relocate to take advantage of this incentive. 🗸🗸
If a current business in the IDZ wants to expand they are allowed. 🗸🗸 [Max 10]

CONCLUSION From the above discussion it is clear that different initiatives form part of South Africa’s Regional Industrial Development Programme. [Max 2]

INTRODUCTION Economic indicators are used to evaluate the economic performance of an economic unit. This unit can be a company, an industry, a country or a region. Macro-economic indicators, measures the economic performance of a country as a whole. 🗸🗸

BODY-MAIN PART Such indicators can provide an indication of:

Changes taking place in a country. 🗸🗸
How a country compares to other countries. 🗸🗸

Inflation Rate

This is the general increase in the price level of goods and services in the economy over a certain period in time. E.g. one year. 🗸🗸
This is therefore an indicator of the health of the economy and it is monitored in two ways that is at the production wholesale level producer price level (PPI) and at the retail or consumer level consumer price index (CPI) 🗸🗸

The Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Shows the price increases of a representative (weighted) basket of goods and services that consumers buy. 🗸🗸
It is abbreviated as CPI this cover all the urban areas. 🗸🗸
It is an overall index and weights are obtained from expenditures of different income categories of households. 🗸🗸
It is the most comprehensive indicator measuring consumer inflation in the country. 🗸🗸
It shows changes in the general purchasing power of the rand and it is used for inflation targeting 🗸🗸
Is compiled by Stats SA and measures the change in the price level of a basket of consumer goods and services. 🗸🗸
The goods and services included in the basket are chosen to represent the goods and services purchased by an average household. 🗸🗸
This basket is adjusted from time to time as consumption patterns change. 🗸🗸
The inflation rate is the percentage change in the CPI from the previous year and can be calculated as follows:
Change in CPI x 100 🗸🗸 CPI

The Production Price Index (PPI)

Used to measure the price of goods that are produced domestically when they leave the factory year. 🗸🗸
The goods that are imported when they enter the country (at a port) and both of these are before consumers become involved. 🗸🗸
PPI consists of three baskets that are domestically manufactured outputs, e.g. changes in the PPI can be made monthly or quarterly or yearly. 🗸🗸
While changes in the imported products and exported commodities are given separately in the same report. 🗸🗸
PPI includes capital and intermediate goods but not services. 🗸🗸
It is based on a completely different type of a basket of items in the CPI. 🗸🗸
It measures the cost of production rather than the cost of living. 🗸🗸
It is used to predict consumer goods inflation (CPI) 🗸🗸
Which is also estimated and published on a monthly basis by Stats SA, is similar to the CPI, 🗸🗸
Except that it also includes the prices of raw materials and intermediary goods 🗸🗸 (i.e. goods that will be finished in the production process), excludes VAT and excludes services. 🗸🗸
Manufactured goods included in the PPI are priced when they leave the factory, not when they are sold to consumers. 🗸🗸
Unlike the CPI, the PPI therefore cannot be related directly to consumers’ living standards. 🗸🗸
The PPI is nevertheless very useful in the analysis of inflation because it measures the cost of production. 🗸🗸
A significant change in the rate of increase in the PPI is usually an indication that the rate of increase in the CPI will also change a few months later. 🗸🗸

The GDP Deflator Is a ratio that indicates the relationship of the GDP at nominal prices to the GDP at real prices. GDP deflator = Normal GDP x 100 🗸🗸 Real GDP

Nominal GDP

Is the value of total gross domestic product measured at current prices. 🗸🗸
While the real GDP is the value of total gross domestic product measured at constant prices.🗸🗸
So, the GDP deflator includes changes in the prices of exports but not of imports. 🗸🗸
In a small open economy, like that of South Africa where both, imports and exports are significant in relation to the total size of the economy. 🗸🗸
The exclusion of import prices is an important shortcoming. 🗸🗸

Unemployment rate

In terms of economic development, employment is a very important indicator. 🗸🗸
Employment is, however, not very easy to measure as so many people are employed in the informal sector which is not recorded. 🗸🗸
The concept of underemployment is also important. 🗸🗸
This is when someone is employed in a position that requires less skill than their ability. 🗸🗸
For example when a qualified accountant works as a delivery person because he or she cannot find employment as an accountant. 🗸🗸
Someone may also be employed on a part-time basis but would prefer to work full time. 🗸🗸
A labour force survey is published quarterly by Stats SA. 🗸🗸
This publication contains information and statistics concerning a variety of issues related to the labour market, including the official unemployment rate. 🗸🗸
It is a comprehensive survey and provides information on changes in employment in different provinces and industries. 🗸🗸
Employment in the informal sector, and even reasons for changes in employment figures. 🗸🗸
The unemployment rate is a percentage of the total labour force. 🗸🗸
The total labour force includes all employed people and unemployed people who are looking for work. 🗸🗸
The unemployment rate is a lagging indicator, which means that it will only change a few periods after the trend in the economy has changed. 🗸🗸
For example if the economy starts growing at a faster pace. 🗸🗸
The unemployment rate will only react to the growth after two or three quarters. 🗸🗸

Interest rates

Interest rates are important indicators of future economic activity, as the interest rate level is usually an important determinant when economic decisions are being taken. 🗸🗸
Both the general interest rate level and the structure of interest rates are important indicators.🗸🗸
There are many interest rates in the economy. 🗸🗸
Some are short term rates, such as the repo rate, which is the interest rates at which South Africa banks borrow from the Reserve Bank to finance their liquidity deficit. 🗸🗸
The difference between the short term interest rates and long term interest rates: 🗸🗸
Is called the interest rate spread and the term structure of interest rates provides an indication of the interest rates levels on loans or investments of different maturities. 🗸🗸
Usually we can expect the interest rates level in a developing country to be higher than the interest rate in a developed economy. 🗸🗸
This is due to the higher risk attached to the developing economy. 🗸🗸
Factors such as political and economic uncertainty cause this higher risk. 🗸🗸
Developing economies also need to attract foreign investment to their country to finance growth. 🗸🗸
Investors’ funds will move towards the highest yield and thereof. 🗸🗸
Developing countries cannot allow interest rates in their countries to become too low. 🗸🗸

Money Supply

The increase in the M3 money supply is an important economic indicator. 🗸🗸
If M, the money supply increases, this means that either (P) prices or Y (output) has to respond to the increase in M. 🗸🗸
Therefore, an increase in the money supply is an important indicator showing that output will increase. 🗸🗸
Whether this will translate to an increase in real production or the price level will depend on factors like production within the economy. 🗸🗸
In addition to economic growth the employment of people of working age (15 -64 years) is a majot economic objective. 🗸🗸
We need to know more than this; we need to know who the people are that need to be employed. 🗸🗸
The numbers are determined, not only by age, but also by people’s willingness to work. 🗸🗸

The Economically Active Population (EAP)

The EAP is also known as the labour force. 🗸🗸
It consists of people between the age of 15 and 64 who are willing to work for income in cash or in kind and includes: 🗸🗸
Workers in the formal sector- workers in the informal sector. 🗸🗸
Employers any one 🗸🗸
Self employed persons. 🗸🗸

Related Items

BBR or BSR - Economics Grade 12 Study Guides and Notes
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ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS GRADE 12
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THE DYNAMICS OF IMPERFECT MARKETS QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS GRADE 12

Unemployed Persons

The 2021 estimate of the South African population was million people. 🗸🗸
The EAP numbered million ( % of the population). 🗸🗸

The Employment Rate

The number of employed persons expressed as a percentage of the EAP gives the employment rate. 🗸🗸
The employment rate can also be converted into an index. 🗸🗸
The SA employment rate was % in 2011. 🗸🗸
This is low, compared to rates in developed and even some developing countries such as Argentina and Pakistan. 🗸🗸
In SA the growth in the economy is not accompanied by the similar growth in employment numbers. 🗸🗸

Employment indicators are used for:

To calculate trends in employment in different sectors or industries. 🗸🗸
This indicates structural changes in the economy. 🗸🗸
To calculate productivity. 🗸🗸
To show the success of the economy in utilizing its full potential. 🗸🗸

Unemployment Rate

Statistics SA (SSA) obtains its labour data each year from Quarterly Labour Surveys (QLFS). 🗸🗸
It uses the standard definition of the International Labour Office (ILO) to calculate unemployment. 🗸🗸
The strict definition of unemployment is used to calculate the unemployment rate. 🗸🗸
Did not work during the seven days prior to the interview. 🗸🗸
Want to work and are available to start work within a week of the week of the interview. 🗸🗸
Have taken active steps to look for work or to start some form of self-employment in four week prior to the interview. 🗸🗸
In SA the official unemployment rate was % in 2021. 🗸🗸
In developed countries, change in the unemployment rate trigger responses. 🗸🗸
From governments to fine-tune the economy. 🗸🗸
Increases require more funds for unemployment insurance (UIF) drawings. 🗸🗸
In developing countries, unemployment is the most important cause of poverty. 🗸🗸 [Accept current statistical data] [Max 16]
To give a policy direction in the country. 🗸🗸
To develop mechanism to caution the most affected sectors of the economy promptly
e.g.during the 2019-2020 recession/pandemic some companies required a bail out from the government. 🗸🗸
Develop some economic stabilisers to defuse the huge impact that may result from the unexpected economic downturn. 🗸🗸
Open some other alternative markets for their goods and services. 🗸🗸
To do research and advice the business community before the actual moment hits. 🗸🗸
It can be used to stimulate thinking and growth in a number of sectors in the Economy. 🗸🗸 [Accept any relevant consideration] [Max 10]

CONCLUSION Countries cannot survive and grow their economies if they do not pay attention to economic indicators for their planning processes. [Accept any relevant consideration] [Max 2]

INTRODUCTION Social indicators also called human development indicators as they promote improvement in the standard of living. 🗸🗸 [Any other relevant definition] [Max 2]

BODY-MAIN PART Demographics

This is the description of the physical population and its composition.
To get this a census is done regularly to obtain this information. 🗸🗸

Human development Index (HDI)

This is a measure of people’s ability to live long and healthy lives, to communicate, 🗸🗸
To participate in the community and to have sufficient income to experience a decent lifestyle. 🗸🗸

Human poverty index (HPI)

It measures life expectancy is measured by the percentage of newborns not expected to survive to age 40. 🗸🗸
Lack of education is measured by the percentage of adults who are ill- educated. 🗸🗸

Health and nutrition

Life expectancy birth. 🗸🗸
Infant mortality rate. 🗸🗸

Nutrition indicators

Daily calorie intake per person. 🗸🗸
The number of children who go hungry. 🗸🗸
These measures are important to government as they are supplying healthcare and sometime have to include legislation such as adding vitamin A to basic foodstuffs such as bread. 🗸🗸
The standard of living of people is directly connected to their education. 🗸🗸
Educated people are employable and can earn an income and provide for their own wants and needs. 🗸🗸

Two important measures are:

Secondary enrolment percemtage-how many children that start Grade 1 get to Grade 8 and finish Grade 12. 🗸🗸
Adult literacy- People over the age of 15 that can read and write. 🗸🗸
A large percentage of the annual budget is allocated to education. 🗸🗸
Because of our constitution certain basic services must be supplied by the government. 🗸🗸
These services have a direct effect on people’s living standards. 🗸🗸
Electricity 🗸🗸
Refuse disposal🗸🗸
Water supply🗸🗸
Sanitation🗸🗸

Housing and urbanisation

Urbanisation the process by which an increasing proportion of a country’s population is concentrated in its urban areas as a result of natural increase and migration from rural areas. 🗸🗸
This measures is important as more people come to live in urban areas the greater the demand for housing, services, education, health care etc. 🗸🗸
Housing the percentage of the population living in a permanent dwelling or house. 🗸🗸
The government issue housing subsidies to help poor people to own a house South African citizens or permanent residents earning R3 500 or less a month could apply for this subsidy. 🗸🗸

International comparisons

Figures collected by the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and United Nations provide the best data for comparison purpose. 🗸🗸

Other measures used:

Purchasing power parity (PPP) The number of units of one country’s currency that give the holder the same purchasing power as one unit of another country’s currency. 🗸🗸
The Big Mac Index, The index is based on the price of the Big Mac around the world as compared to its price in the United States. 🗸🗸 [Max 40]

CONCLUSION From the above discussion it is clear that social indicators play a significant role in South Africa. It is, therefore, of the utmost importance that we should study their uses in depth. [Max 2]

MICROECONOMICS-PAPER 2

INTRODUCTION A perfect market is a market structure which has a large number of buyers and sellers. OR The market price is determined by the industry (demand and supply curves). OR This means that individual businesses are price takers, i.e. they are not able to influence prices. OR Perfect competition is an imaginary situation, whereas monopolistic competition is a reality. 🗸🗸 [Accept any other relevant introduction] [Max 2]

BODY-MAIN PART

The indicating of the equilibrium positions on the perfect market structure is of utmost importance because from this point where MC = MR
The dotted lines will be drawn to show economic profit or economics loss.
Where the dotted lines intersect the AC and AR curves either normal profit or economic profit or economic loss will be indicated and shadowed.

Mark allocation for graph:

Position / shape of MC curve = 1 mark
MR curve = 1 mark
Position / shape of AC curve = 2 marks
Equilibrium point = 1 mark
Indication of price / quantity = 1 mark
Shading of economic loss = 2 marks MAX MARKS = (8)

Allocate marks on the graph according to the rubric provided and if facts are duplicated again in writing, do not allocate marks. Max of 8 marks.

Equilibrium is at E 1 i.e. where MC = MR
At this point Q 1 goods are produced at a price of P 1
The averages cost for Q 1 units is point R on the AC curve
Price / AR is greater than AC ( TR > TC)
Therefore economic profit is represented by the area P 1 SRE 1
Equilibrium is at E 1 i.e. where MC = MR
At equilibrium (point E 1 ) average cost is equal to price
The AC curve is tangent to the demand curve which means that P/AR = AC (TR = TC)
The business makes normal profit which is the minimum earnings required to prevent the entrepreneur from leaving the industry.
Equilibrium is at E1, i.e. where MC = MR
At this point Q1 goods are produced at a price of P1
At equilibrium (point E1) price/AR is less than average cost/the AC curve is lies above the demand curve which means that P/AR < AC (TR < TC)
The business makes an economic loss A maximum of 24 marks will be allocated for graph illustration and analysis: 8 marks max per graph illustration - (Max 26 marks)

ADDITIONAL PART CONDITIONS For a market to successfully operate under perfect competition, the following conditions should prevail at the same time:

No firm can influence the market price (price takers) due to a large number of buyers and sellers
Products are identical (homogeneous)
There are no barriers of entry, meaning that there is freedom of entry and exit
Buyers and sellers act independently - no collusion between sellers
No government interference to influence the market – the market is unregulated
Free movement between markets - all factors of production are completely mobile
Both buyers and sellers have full knowledge of all the prevailing market conditions (perfect information)
If any of the above conditions are not met, the market is regarded as an imperfect market Any 5 x 2 = [Max 10 marks]

CONCLUSION Freedom of entry and exit into the perfect market alter the supply of goods on the market. This will result in changes in price which influences the profit or loss of a business. If price falls to a level where it is equal to the AVC then the firm will shut-down. [Max 2] Discuss the monopoly in detail (with/without the aid of graphs) (Imperfect Market)

INTRODUCTION A firm is regarded as a monopolist when it owns or controls the total supply of a scarce factor of production. Monopoly is a market structure where only one seller operates. 🗸🗸

BODY: MAIN PART The characteristics of a monopoly

Number of firms

The monopoly consists out of one single firm. 🗸🗸
The monopoly is also the industry. 🗸🗸
Example: Eskom or De Beers – diamond-selling 🗸🗸 [Accept any other relevant example]

Nature of product

The product is unique with no close substitute. 🗸🗸
Example: Diamonds are unique. 🗸🗸

Market entry

Refers to how easy or difficult it is for businesses to enter or to leave the market 🗸🗸
Is entirely/completely blocked. 🗸🗸
Economies of scale 🗸🗸
Limited size of the market 🗸🗸
Exclusive ownership of raw materials 🗸🗸
Licensing 🗸🗸
Sole rights 🗸🗸
Import restrictions 🗸🗸

They decide on their production level

The monopolist cannot set the level of output and the price independently of each other. 🗸🗸
If a monopolist wants to charge a higher price, it has to sell fewer units of goods. 🗸🗸 Alternatively, a reduction in price will result in a higher output sold. 🗸🗸
A monopolist is confronted with a normal market demand curve 🗸🗸
The demand curve slopes downwards from left to right 🗸🗸
Any point on the monopolist’s demand curve (D) is an indication of the quantity of the product that can be sold and the price at which it will trade. 🗸🗸

They are exposed to market forces

Consumers have limited budgets and a monopoly can therefore not demand excessive prices for its product. 🗸🗸
The monopolist’s product has to compete for the consumer’s favour and money with all other products available in the economy. 🗸🗸

They face substitutes

There are few products that have no close substitutes. 🗸🗸
For example, cell phones can compete with telephone services. 🗸🗸

They may enjoy favourable circumstances

Sometimes an entrepreneur may enjoy favourable circumstances in a certain geographical area. 🗸🗸
For example, there may be only one supplier of milk in a particular town. 🗸🗸

They may exploit consumers

Because a monopolist is the only supplier of a product, there is always the possibility of consumer exploitation. 🗸🗸
However, most governments continually take steps to guard against such practices. 🗸🗸

Market Information

All information on market conditions is available to both buyers and sellers. 🗸🗸
This means that there are no uncertainties. 🗸🗸

Control over price

In the case of a monopoly there are considerable price control, but limited by market demand and the goal of profit maximisation. 🗸🗸

Long-run economic profit Can be positive

Because new entries are blocked and short-run economic profit therefore cannot be reduced by new competing firms entering the industry 🗸🗸
The monopoly can thus continue to earn economic profit as long as the demand for its product remains intact 🗸🗸

Heading = 1 mark AC = 1 mark DD/AR = 1 mark MC = 1 mark Profit maximisation point =1 mark Labelling of the axis = 1 mark Labelling on the axis = 1 mark

Long run equilibrium of a perfect competitor

CONCLUSION A monopoly does not always make economic profit in the short run; it can also make economic loss in the short run if the total cost exceeds total revenue. 🗸🗸

INTRODUCTION

The oligopoly is a type of imperfect market in which only a few large producers dominate the market. 🗸🗸 [Accept any other relevant and correct response]

MAIN PART Nature of product

The product may be homogeneous in a pure oligopoly. 🗸🗸
If the product is differentiated, it is known as a differentiated oligopoly. 🗸🗸

Market information

There is incomplete information on the product and the prices. 🗸🗸
Market entry is not easy, it is limited in the sense that huge capital outlay might be necessary. 🗸🗸
Oligopolists have considerable control over price, it can influence price, but not as much as the monopolist. 🗸🗸
Oligopolies can frequently change their prices in order to increase their market share and this result in price wars. 🗸🗸

Mutual dependence

The decision of one firm will influence and be influenced by the decisions of the other competitors. 🗸🗸
Mutual dependence (interdependence) exists amongst these businesses.
A change in the price or change in the market share by one firm is reflected in the sales of the others. 🗸🗸

Non-price competition

Non - price competition can be through advertising, packaging, after-sales services. 🗸🗸
Since price competition can result in destructive price wars, oligopolies prefer to compete on a different basis. 🗸🗸
Participants observe one another carefully- when one oligopolist launches an advertising campaign, its competitors soon follow suite. 🗸🗸
If oligopolies operate as a cartel, firms have an absolute cost advantage over the rest of the other competitors in the industry. 🗸🗸
Collusion is a strategy used by firms to eliminate competition amongst each other. 🗸🗸
It can be in a form of overt collusion where firms can work together to form a cartel and tacit collusion where a dominating business controls the price. 🗸🗸

Limited competition

There are only a few suppliers manufacturing the same product. 🗸🗸

Economic profit

Oligopolies can make an economic profit over the long term. 🗸🗸
Abnormal profits may result to joint decision-making in an oligopoly. 🗸🗸

Demand curve

Slope from left down to the right. 🗸🗸
It is known as the kinked demand since it contains the upper relatively elastic slope and the lower relatively inelastic slope. 🗸🗸 [Accept any other relevant and correct response] [Max. 26]

ADDITIONAL PART Oligopolist may increase their market share using non-price competition strategies by:

branding their product to create an impression that its product is for a particular age group or income group. 🗸🗸
aggressive advertising which inform customers about the business or product it provides.🗸🗸
Using appealing packaging to bring out important features of their product.
improving their customer service in order to ensure that they return to their businesses.🗸🗸
providing relevant and precise information, which is crucial to the customers, since there are competitors in the market, customers will patronize the businesses that provides relevant information. 🗸🗸
extending shopping hours to the convenience of customers.
Offering loyalty rewards to customers which will encourage their return to spend accumulated rewards. 🗸🗸 [Accept any other relevant response] [Max.10]
In South Africa, oligopolists have been found to be illegally manipulating prices to their benefit, yet to the detriment of consumers and have been penalized for such action. 🗸🗸 [Accept any other relevant response]

Compare and contrast any TWO types of market structures (perfect to imperfect/imperfect to imperfect) in detail in terms of the following. - Number of businesses - Nature of product - Entrance - Control over prices - Information - Examples - Demand curve - Economic profit/loss - Decision-making - Collusion - Productive/Technical efficiency - Allocative efficiency (Perfect Market and Imperfect Market)

‘’Market structures are classified under Perfect Competition, Monopolistic Competition, Oligopoly and Monopoly’’ Compare all FOUR market structures in a tabular form. NB: Learners should write in full sentences even if the comparison is done in a tabular format). (Marks depend on the combination of market structures to be examined)

PLEASE NOTE: THE ABOVE TABLE SHOULD BE VERBALLY WRITTEN AS PER ESSAY INSTRUCTION

INTRODUCTION Market failure is when the forces of supply and demand fail to allocate resources efficiently / when markets fail to allocate goods and services efficiently. 🗸🗸 [Accept any other correct introduction] [Max 2]

BODY: MAIN PART

1. Missing Markets

Markets are often incomplete in the sense that they cannot meet the demand for certain goods. 🗸🗸
Public goods:
They are not provided by the price mechanism because producers cannot withhold the goods from non-payment and there is often no way of measuring how much a person consumes. 🗸🗸

Public goods have the following features: Non-rivalry:

The consumption by one person does not reduce the consumption of another person e.g. a lighthouse. 🗸🗸

Non-excludability:

Consumption cannot be confined to those who have paid, so there are free riders e.g. radio and TV in South Africa. 🗸🗸

Merit goods

These are goods/services that are deemed necessary or beneficial to the society, e.g. education, health care etc. 🗸🗸
These goods are highly desirable for general welfare but not highly rated by the market, therefore provide inadequate output/supply. 🗸🗸
If people had to pay market prices for them relatively too little would be consumed – the market will fail. 🗸🗸
The reason for undersupply of merit goods is that the market only takes the private costs and benefits into account and not the social costs and benefits. 🗸🗸

Demerit goods

These are goods/services that are regarded as bad or harmful for consumption hence we should use less of these e.g. alcohol, cigarettes, etc. 🗸🗸
Demerit goods lead to a lot of social costs, therefore, the government charges sin tax / excise duties to discourage the consumption of such goods. 🗸🗸
While the market is willing to supply demerit goods, it tends to oversupply demerit goods. 🗸🗸
Some consumers may be unaware of the true cost of consuming them. 🗸🗸

2 Lack of information

Technical and allocative efficiency require that both producers and consumers have complete and accurate information about the costs and benefits of the goods and services produced and consumed in the market. Producers and consumers make production and consumption decisions based on the information they have. 🗸🗸
When information is incomplete or inaccurate, it leads to wrong decisions about what to produce, how to produce and for whom to produce, and a waste of resources occurs. 🗸🗸
Producers might not know all the different technologies and production techniques that are available and the different resources that can best be used to produce goods/services more efficiently. 🗸🗸
Consumers might not know that the price of a product is lower from some other suppliers or about the harmful effects of a product since they might just base their decisions to consume on the information from a misleading suppliers. 🗸🗸

3. Immobility of factors of production

Markets do not respond to changes in consumer demand if resources cannot be easily reallocated or due to a lack of information🗸🗸
Labour takes time to move to into new occupations and geographically to meet the changes in consumer demand. 🗸🗸
Physical capital e.g. equipment, buildings, land and raw materials can only move from one place to another at a high cost, but cannot be moved to fit a change in demand. 🗸🗸
Technological applications change production methods e.g. use of robots rather than physical labour. It takes time for most industries to adapt. 🗸🗸
With greater technological change there is an increasing need for workers to become flexible, to update skills, change employment, occupations and work patterns. 🗸🗸 [Max 26]
Motivate why government has implemented a national minimum wage in the labour market. 🗸🗸
Pressure was put on the South African government to introduce labour laws which require employers to pay minimum wages. 🗸🗸
The application of minimum wage laws is needed to improve a redistribution of income. 🗸🗸

The main objectives were:

To redress inequality (Gap between wealthy and poor) 🗸🗸
To improve the standard of living. 🗸🗸
Government tried to protect domestic workers and farm workers — thus preventing exploitation. 🗸🗸 [Max 10] [Accept any other correct relevant response]

CONCLUSION Governments intervene in the market when market forces cannot achieve the desired output. [Max 2] [Accept any other relevant conclusion]

INTRODUCTION The purpose of government intervention is to ensure that the right quantity of resources is allocated to the production of output so that society as a whole [Accept any other relevant introduction] [Max 2] maximizes its benefits. 🗸🗸

Sometimes government will set the price of a good or service at a maximum level that is below the market price 🗸🗸
The government intervene and passes a law that suppliers may not charge more than the maximum price 🗸🗸
The immediate effect is that quantity supply will drop 🗸🗸
The original market equilibrium price and quantity is P and Q respectively 🗸🗸
The price set by the government is P1, at this price the demand will increase to Q1 and the supply will decrease to Q2 🗸🗸
The difference between Q1 and Q2 is the shortfall that will be created on the market 🗸🗸
The shortage caused by the price ceiling creates a problem of how to allocate the good since the demand has increased 🗸🗸
Black markets start to develop [Mark allocation: Graph 6 and discussion max. 10 marks]
The appropriate way to intervene in the market by government is by levying taxes as a method to recover external cost 🗸🗸
The original market equilibrium at e, with P as the equilibrium price and Q as the equilibrium quantity 🗸🗸
The tax increase will shift the supply curve to the left 🗸🗸
New equilibrium at E1 🗸🗸
A tax would raise the price from P to P1 🗸🗸
The production will decrease from Q to Q1 🗸🗸 [Mark allocation: Graph total 6 marks and discussion max 10 marks]
Explain the supply of undesirable goods in South Africa and how the government can deal with it. 🗸🗸
Items such as cigarettes, alcohol and non-prescription drugs are examples of demerit or undesirable goods. 🗸🗸
These goods are often over supplied in the market, due to the fact that the external cost is not added to the market price. 🗸🗸
Some consumers may be unaware of the true cost of consuming them, their negative externalities. 🗸🗸
Government can ban their consumption or reduce it by means of taxation. 🗸🗸
Taxation on these products will increase the market price and hopefully the demand for these products will drop. 🗸🗸 [10 marks] [Accept any other correct relevant response]

CONCLUSION The intervention of government ensures that inefficiencies is eliminated and that the market is operating effectively 🗸🗸 [Accept any other relevant conclusion] [Max 2]

CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC ISSUES-PAPER 2

This is a constant and significant increase in the general price level of goods and services in the country over a certain period of time, e.g. a year. 🗸🗸 [Max 2] [Accept any relevant introduction]

BODY-MAIN PART Creditors and Debtors

Whereas borrowers (debtors) benefit from price increases, lenders (creditors) suffer due to price increases. 🗸🗸
This is because borrowers receive money with a relatively high purchasing power and they repay their loans with money with low purchasing power, unless interest rates are sufficient to prevent this occurrence. 🗸🗸

Salary and Wage Earners

Price increases affect people whose incomes are relatively fixed (in other words, people whose incomes remains constant or do not increase at the same rate as prices do. 🗸🗸
This group includes retired people, pensioners and the poor. 🗸🗸
As prices increase, their almost fixed incomes purchase less and less. 🗸🗸
However there are individuals and entrepreneurs whose incomes often increase at a rate that is higher than the inflation rate and they do not suffer but gain from inflation. 🗸🗸
Globalization results in increased employment opportunities in the economy due to increased productivity, the need to produce more goods both for local and international markets rises in globalised economies. 🗸🗸
The demand for increased skilled labour becomes a need as a result, this demand for labour benefits the local labour market in increased employment opportunities and growth. 🗸🗸

Investors and Savers

Different types of investments are affected by inflation: Assets with fixed nominal values. 🗸🗸
These assets have a fixed nominal value and give a return if they are held until maturity. 🗸🗸
When they are paid, because their nominal values remain constant, the purchasing power of the nominal values decreases as prices increase (that is, their real value decreases). 🗸🗸

Assets with Flexible Market Values

The holders of shares and fixed property usually gain by price increases because the nominal values of these assets tend to increase at least proportionately to the rate of inflation (that is, their market values are flexible). 🗸🗸
Often the prices of these assets increase more rapidly than increases in the general price level.🗸🗸
In this case, inflation creates wealth to the advantage of those holding such assets. 🗸🗸
South Africa has a progressive personal income tax system. 🗸🗸
This means that marginal and average tax rates increase in harmony with the income level. 🗸🗸
The higher level an individual’s income, the greater the percentage of income he or she has to pay tax. 🗸🗸
With inflation, taxpayers’ nominal income (wages and salaries) rise even when their real income remain unchanged. 🗸🗸

Taxes are levied on nominal income and not on real income.

Therefore if the income tax schedule remains unchanged inflation increases the average rate of personal income tax. 🗸🗸
Individuals will have to pay higher taxes even if they are actually no better off than before. 🗸🗸
This phenomenon known as bracket creep, lads to a redistribution of income from taxpayers to the government. 🗸🗸
Bracket deep results from a combination of inflation and progressive income tax. 🗸🗸
It has the same effect as an increase in the tax rate. 🗸🗸

Industrial Peace

Wage bargaining is often accompanied by strikes and mass action. 🗸🗸
These actions can sometimes spill over into violence, which affects society at large. 🗸🗸
In extreme situations in the presence of exceptionally high inflation together with a government that is determined not to yield to wage increase demands (which can push inflation to even higher levels), widespread civil unrest follows. 🗸🗸

Inflation has a negative effect on economic growth

Inflation leads to increased uncertainty in the economy. 🗸🗸
This uncertainty discourages savings and investments especially in the long term. 🗸🗸
Which are necessary for economic growth –result reduced economic growth. 🗸🗸

Inflation affects the real money value and savings

Because inflation reduces the real value of money, it affects the real value of money saved in particular. 🗸🗸
This means that inflation, the rand buys fewer goods and services than before. 🗸🗸
It also means that the real money value saved is worth less at the end of the savings period than when the money was saved. 🗸🗸
e.g. if a consumer receives 5 % interest on his/her savings account while the inflation rate is 8%, then the real rate of interest on the consumer’s savings is -3%.🗸🗸

Inflation has an adverse effect on a country’s balance of payments (BOP).

If a country’s rate of inflation is higher than that of its trading partners the prices of exported goods increase while the prices of imported goods decrease. 🗸🗸
This leads to loss of competitiveness in the export market, which in turn leads to decreased exports. 🗸🗸

This has a negative effect on the country’s balance of payments (BOP).

The loss of export competiveness can also increase unemployment inflation affects the redistribution of income in a country. 🗸🗸

The effects of inflation are uneven.

While it does not clearly benefit anyone and certainly harms most, it also harms some less than others. 🗸🗸
Inflation also tends to redistribute income from low-income groups to higher income groups. 🗸🗸
This is because people in the low income groups do not have assets than can rise in value faster than the rate of inflation to help them overcome the effects of inflation. 🗸🗸
Powerful groups such as trade unions large companies and the wealthy people, are able to increase their share of national income at the expense of disadvantaged people such as pensioners the unemployed and the welfare recipients. 🗸🗸

Inflation has social and political costs

When inflation continually causes rising prices it makes people unhappy and can disturb relations between employers and the employees and between customers and traders or service providers. 🗸🗸
People in lower-income brackets feel severe effects of increases in the price of essential items such as bread, maize meal rental and transport costs. 🗸🗸
This can lead to social unrest and political unrest. 🗸🗸

Inflation feeds on itself and causes further inflation

This is called the inflation spiral. 🗸🗸 e.g. higher wage demands cause producers to increase their prices to maintain their profits.
This happens again and again pushing prices further every time. 🗸🗸
If the government does not keep this wage price spiral in check, inflation may get out of control and become hyperinflation. 🗸🗸 [Max 26]

ADDITIONAL PART Debate the merits (benefits) of administered prices by the government

These are prices regulated by the government e.g. home owner’s costs on water/household fuel (paraffin and electricity) medical care (public hospitals) communication (telephone calls, telephone rentals and installations/postage cell communications /transport (petrol). 🗸🗸
Most of the administered prices are adjusted once a year which brings price stability. 🗸🗸
Regulated prices are restricted as to the extent to which prices may vary, depending on the government’s objectives. 🗸🗸
Administered prices provide additional revenue to national treasury. 🗸🗸
It appears that some of these prices remain extremely robust over the short term. 🗸🗸 [Accept any other relevant response] [Max 10]
If inflation is not controlled by the proper and effective instruments, it can have challenging problems to the economy in general. 🗸🗸

INTRODUCTION COST PUSH Inflation is a sustained and significant increase in general price level over a period of time and a simultaneous decrease in the purchasing power of money. Accept any other relevant introduction. 🗸🗸 [Max 2]

BODY: MAIN PART Causes of cost-push inflation

Increase in Wages:

In South Africa, increase in wages constitute more than 50% of Gross Value Added at basic prices 🗸🗸
If the increase in wages is not accompanied by an increase in production, the cost of production will rise 🗸🗸
Producers will increase the prices of their products to offset the high cost of production strikes and stay-aways / labour union activities 🗸🗸

Key inputs/ increase in prices of imported capital goods

When the prices of key inputs that are imported increase, domestic cost of production 🗸🗸
increases especially in the manufacturing sector 🗸🗸
Supply shocks e.g. sudden increase of oil causes a knock-off effect 🗸🗸

Exchange rate depreciation

A decrease in the value of the rand will result in an increase in prices of imports 🗸🗸

Profit margins

When firms increase profit margins, the prices that consumers pay also increase 🗸🗸
Sometimes firms use their market power to push up prices 🗸🗸

Productivity

Less productive factors of production will lead to increased cost per unit 🗸🗸
Strikes and stay-aways often reduce production output and can result in price increases 🗸🗸

Natural disasters

Natural disasters such as drought, flood and global warming can impact on the cost of production 🗸🗸
This is often the case in relation to food prices 🗸🗸
An increase in interest rates results businesses paying more money for capital loaned firms recover these costs by increasing the prices of their products 🗸🗸

Increase in taxation

Increase in direct tax like company income tax may lead to businesses increasing their prices to offset the extra burden 🗸🗸
Increase in indirect tax such as custom duty will lead to increase in costs of supplying a particular product, therefore the price will increase 🗸🗸
Administered prices increase e.g. fuel prices
Shoplifting and losses caused by employees are added to the prices of products 🗸🗸 [Accept any other relevant fact. Maximum 8 marks for headings] [Max. 26]

DEMAND PULL INFLATION Total spending on domestic goods and services in the economy consists of the spending by households, firms, the government and the foreign sector.

Total spending = C + I + G + (X-M). 🗸🗸

Causes of demand inflation Increase in consumption [C] – consumers expenditure will increase mainly for three reasons:

a. If consumers save less & spend more🗸🗸
b. Decrease in personal income tax. 🗸🗸
c. A greater availability of consumer credit, because of decrease in interest rate. 🗸🗸

Investment [I] –When business invest this increase demand for labour, cement, sand and bricks. 🗸🗸

Supply cannot keep up with the increase in demand and this will increase prices. 🗸🗸
Lower interest rates may result in an improvement in the sentiment and profit expectations of businesses. 🗸🗸
Businesses invest more and this may lead to an increase in the demand of goods and services that are part of the investment (for example, a new building requires cement bricks and labour).🗸🗸
If aggregate demand increases at a faster rate than aggregate supply, price increases will follow.🗸🗸

Government Spending [G] – Three main reasons.

a. New capital projects🗸🗸
b. Consumption expenditure on education, health, and protection. 🗸🗸
c. Social expenditure on public work programme to create jobs and increase in social allowances. 🗸🗸

Export earnings [X]

a. When economy of trading country improve. 🗸🗸
b. When global economy expands. 🗸🗸

Access to credit

There is greater availability of consumer credit (by means of credit cards) of the availability of cheaper credit as a result of decreases in lending rates. As new credit is extended the credit multiplier kicks in and more credit is created. 🗸🗸

Consumption spending

Most governments will at times increase expenditures on education, health, protection and safety (for example, military equipment such as bomber jets and submarines). 🗸🗸

Social spending

Governments sometimes feel they have to do something substantive about unemployment and poverty. 🗸🗸
They borrow money and spend it on public works programmes or raise the level of social grants year after year at a higher rate than the inflation rate. 🗸🗸
Such expenditures invariably lead to inflation because they add to aggregate demand without adding anything to aggregate supply. 🗸🗸

Commodities demand

The world’s demand for commodities expands and contracts like business cycles do. During an expansionary period, foreign demand increases and this leads to greater volumes of exports. The income earned from these exports adds to aggregate demand and prices increase. 🗸🗸

BODY: ADDITIONAL PART YES / NO

Inflation targeting is when a particular percentage is set as an acceptable level for an increase in general price levels 🗸🗸
The SARB's inflation target is a range of 3% and 6% 🗸🗸
The aim of inflation targeting policy is to achieve and maintain price stability 🗸🗸
The implementation of the inflation target is easy to understand – expressed in numbers which makes it very clear and transparent 🗸🗸
It reduces uncertainty and promotes sound planning in the public and private sectors 🗸🗸
It provides an explicit yardstick that serves to discipline monetary policy and improves the accountability of the central banks 🗸🗸
The SARB make use of monetary policy, specifically the repo rate to keep the inflation within the target range 🗸🗸
The government make use of fiscal policy regarding public sector revenue and expenditure 🗸🗸

Positive effects

Where demand is higher than supply an increase in interest rates help to bring the demand down 🗸🗸
The policy can helps businesses to make economic plans without worrying about the effects of high inflation 🗸🗸
South Africa's price level has been fairly stable since the introduction of the inflation targeting policy in 2000 🗸🗸

Negative effects

Inflation targeting can cause a reduction in economic growth 🗸🗸
This is because the raising of interest rates, result in a decrease in total spending which is needed for production to increase 🗸🗸
Decreased economic growth can increase unemployment 🗸🗸
South Africa has been experiencing an increase in unemployment since the implementation of the policy in 2000 🗸🗸
Inflation targeting is difficult to implement when the cause of inflation is supply shocks 🗸🗸 [Max. 10]
A summary of what has been discussed without repeating facts already mentioned in the body. 🗸🗸
An opinion or valued judgement on the facts discussed. 🗸🗸
Additional support information to strengthen the discussion. 🗸🗸
A contradictory viewpoint with motivation. 🗸🗸
Recommendations. 🗸🗸
E.g. Inflation can be a threat to the normal functioning of the economy; therefore, measures like monetary and fiscal are vital to keep the phenomenon under control. 🗸🗸
This is the activities of people travelling to and staying in places outside their usual environment for a period not longer than one consecutive year for leisure, business and other purposes and not related to a remunerative activity from within the place visited 🗸🗸 [Max 2]

BODY - MAIN PART Gross domestic product (GDP)

Tourism impacts mostly on the services industry than on agriculture or manufacturing although there are upstream effects when agriculture provides foodstuffs to restaurants and manufacturing provides vehicles for transport 🗸🗸

Direct contribution on GDP

Statistics South Africa (SSA) shows that in 2020 inbound tourists contributed R69 billion and domestic tourists R billion, amounting to R billion - about % of South Africa's GDP 🗸🗸

Indirect contribution on GDP

If the indirect contribution is added, tourism add about % to GDP 🗸🗸
The WTTC estimated that tourism contributed % to the GDP of the world economy in 2020🗸🗸
In developing economies the service sector is responsible for around % of GDP, while it is responsible for more than % of GDP in developed economies 🗸🗸
South Africa is similar to that of developed economies and services contributed more than % of GDP in 2020. 🗸🗸
Tourism has a major effect on employment and this amounted to million workers in 2020🗸🗸
Tourism is the world’s largest generator of jobs 🗸🗸
Tourism is labour intensive 🗸🗸
More jobs can be created with every unit of capital invested in tourism than elsewhere
Tourism employs many skills 🗸🗸
It ranges from accountants and hairdressers to tour guides and trackers, 🗸🗸
the tourism industry draws upon numerous skills 🗸🗸
Tourism can provide immediate employment 🗸🗸
If one quarter of tourists’ accommodation establishment in South Africa starts to offer live entertainment to quests, thousands of entertainers could be employed within days 🗸🗸
Tourism provides entrepreneurship opportunities 🗸🗸
The tourism industry accommodates informal sector enterprises, from craft and fruit vendors to pavement vendors, chair rentals 🗸🗸
Tourism is widely recognized as one of the fastest and more effective redistribution mechanisms in development 🗸🗸
It brings development to the poor in rural areas 🗸🗸
Tourism provides an alternative to urbanisation, permitting women and youth to continue a rural family lifestyle while giving them business opportunities 🗸🗸
E.g. to start and operate small-scale tourism businesses around community asserts (forests, parks and rivers) 🗸🗸

Externalities

The rapidly expanding tourism industry could have both positive and negative impacts that extend well into the future 🗸🗸
While tourism attracts large amount of revenue, it can also cause undue environmental damage that can harm the very foundation on which it depends 🗸🗸
All other economic resources, tourism uses resources and produces wastes and also creates environmental costs (pollution) and benefits in the process 🗸🗸
Rapid growth in tourism aiming at short-term benefits usually results in more negative effects and these includes the degeneration of traditions and cultural values and environmental damage to sites and setting 🗸🗸

Environment Tourism activities create environmental stress:

Permanent environmental restructuring which includes major infrastructure 🗸🗸
Waste product generation such as biological and non-biological waste that damages fish production 🗸🗸
Direct environmental stress caused by tourist activities, e.g. the destruction of vegetation and dunes 🗸🗸
Effects on population dynamics such as migration and increased urban densities 🗸🗸
Transport infrastructure, e.g. roads, airports 🗸🗸
Communication and infrastructure including telephone lines, electronic signal stations and radio, TVs’ 🗸🗸
Energy infrastructure such electricity and liquid fuel 🗸🗸
Basic service infrastructure such as clean water and sewerage systems 🗸🗸 [Max. 26]

ADDITIONAL PART How can Indigenous Knowledge Systems be used to promote tourism in South Africa?

More cultural villages can be improved to facilitate and promote tourism e.g. Shangana in Mpumalanga, Basotho in the Free State and Simunye Zulu Lodge in Kwazulu-Natal. 🗸🗸
Where guides explain and demonstrate storytelling and indigenous knowledge practices. 🗸🗸
Advertising campaigns domestically and internationally by travel agencies, hotels and B & B, lodges and SA Tourism can focus on promoting these heritage sites in brochures and fliers, social media. 🗸🗸
These actions will make tourists more aware of these attractions 🗸🗸
Encourage tourists to experience different cultures and townships - experience life at home with a household and eat at a shebeen or township restaurant 🗸🗸
World Heritage Sites of South Africa can be promoted for their cultural significance e.g. the Fossil Hominid Sites of Sterkfontein, Mapungubwe Cultural Landscape, Richtersveld Cultural and Botanical Landscape, Vredefort Dome and Robben Island 🗸🗸
Environmental World Heritage Sites of South Africa selected for their natural importance namely the Cape Floral Region Protected Areas, Isimangaliso Wetlands Park as well as uKhahlamba/Drakensberg Park which has been selected for its mixed significance 🗸🗸
Arts and culture festivals e.g. the National Arts Festival, the Hermanus Festival, Awesome Africa Music Festival and Macufe African Cultural Festival should more widely be advertised to encourage tourists to attend 🗸🗸
According to the World Health Organisation, a large majority of the African population make use of traditional medicines for health, social-cultural and economic reasons and forms part of the unique experience tourists experience when visiting local villages 🗸🗸
In South Africa tourists are made more aware of the important role traditional medicine plays in poverty reduction and employment creation 🗸🗸
Relaxation of restrictive tourist visa laws to facilitate easier entry into South Africa 🗸🗸 [Accept any other relevant answers] [Max. 10]
South Africa attracted over million tourists in 2020 /For every 8.1 additional tourist to South Africa, one new job is created/one per cent increase in tourism adds R million annually to the SA economy. 🗸🗸 [Accept any other relevant higher order conclusion] [Max. 2]
Tourism is the activities of people travelling to and staying in places outside their usual environment for no more than one consecutive year for leisure, business or other purposes PP 🗸🗸 [Accept any other correct relevant response] [Max 2]

MAIN PART Business sector

Tourism stimulates business in areas such as accommodation and entertainment 🗸🗸
The construction industry, in private-public partnership with the government to provide the infrastructure, manufacturing sector and recreation sector all benefits from increased demand due to tourism 🗸🗸
The previously disadvantaged communities get entrepreneurial opportunities through the black economic empowerment schemes 🗸🗸
A large number of people get business opportunities in the informal sector e.g. selling of artefacts 🗸🗸
Local retailers may have an increase in sales (and profits) because of increased demand from tourists 🗸🗸
Private businesses and government work in partnership to provide the infrastructure needed for tourism 🗸🗸
This increases the market share of and income of the these businesses 🗸🗸
Allow existing businesses to improve the quality and variety of their products PP 🗸🗸
Allow natural monopolies e.g. Table Mountain Cableway to achieve abnormal profits PP 🗸🗸
The public sector also provides a range of financial incentives for private sector tourism investment (grants, subsidies, loans, tax rebates) PP 🗸🗸 [Max 10]

Infrastructure development

Adequate and well-maintained infrastructure is essential for tourist destinations PP. 🗸🗸
Locals share this infrastructure with tourists 🗸🗸
Government often prioritises economic infrastructure such as ports and beaches 🗸🗸
In addition to physical and basic infrastructure, social infrastructure is also important for the growth of tourism🗸🗸
Most of the SDIs and development corridors also have tourism as an important focus PP 🗸🗸 [Max 8]
Members of households earn income from the tourism sector as tour operators, travel agents etc. 🗸🗸
Many households are indirectly involved in tourism as employees e.g. in hotels, transport sector. 🗸🗸
Entrepreneurs from households that operate as curio producers or musicians can earn income from tourism . 🗸🗸
A large number of households acquire skills in the tourism industry. 🗸🗸
School curriculum and learnership offer opportunities to acquire these skills . 🗸🗸
Encourages rural development because many tourist attractions are located in rural areas PP 🗸🗸 [Accept any other correct relevant response] [Max. 26]

ADDITIONAL PART Tourism can be successfully marketed in less popular destinations by:

advertising the firms' attractions in a variety of media including social media and internet which may reach both local and international potential tourists. 🗸🗸
focusing on a clear message that concentrates on the strength of the attraction/ uniqueness of the destination. 🗸🗸
using the indigenous knowledge systems of that particular area where possible PP. 🗸🗸
describing the service offered in the best possible way to catch the interest of the likely tourist PP E.g. the use of slogans. 🗸🗸
charging a price that is competitive and money well spent for the service offered. 🗸🗸
helping the tourist to view the entire service as value for money – deliver a worldclass visitor experience 🗸🗸
highlighting other places of interest in the vicinity of the attraction as part of a package 🗸🗸
focusing on proudly South African products/services / Sho’t Left campaign PP 🗸🗸
help disadvantaged South Africans to benefit from tourist attractions in the less popular destinations PP 🗸🗸 [Accept any other correct relevant response] [Max. 10]

CONCLUSION A weaker exchange rate has been a major contributing factor to South Africa's tourism industry growth over many years. 🗸🗸 [Accept any correct relevant response] [Max 2]

INTRODUCTION Environmental sustainability can be defined as development that meets the need of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. 🗸🗸

BODY: MAIN PART Public sector intervention Because it is difficult to enforce measures to ensure sustainability the government has to intervene. 🗸🗸

Environmental taxes Environmental taxes (green taxes) can be added to the cost of goods and services for the negative impact they have on the environment. 🗸🗸 The government uses the income generated through these taxes to protect the environment. 🗸🗸 Taxes can be imposed on petrol, paper, emission gases etc. 🗸🗸 In 2003 the government has legislated the use of biodegradable plastic bags which consumers had to pay for🗸🗸 The hope is that they will use fewer bags and ensure a litter free environment. 🗸🗸

Charging for dumping of waste A monthly fee as part of municipal accounts is charged for collection of waste, sewage and garbage. 🗸🗸 Households already pay for the collection of rubbish. 🗸🗸 The factory owner might clean up his waste if it cost him to dump it. 🗸🗸 Industries might also pay for emitting gases that can be harmful to people and the environment. 🗸🗸 Subsidies Subsidies can be awarded to businesses that are willing to reduce pollution and waste. 🗸🗸 Waste can also be reduced by using new techniques or equipment such as solar energy. 🗸🗸 Emission gases from factories can be reduced using new technology. 🗸🗸

Granting property rights Normally owners of properties tend to be more protective over their resources than users who are only interested in the profits the resources offer. 🗸🗸 For this reason the government might grant property rights over a specific area. 🗸🗸 Property rights empowers owners to negotiate contracts with businesses who wish to exploit the area’s resources. 🗸🗸

Marketable permits A government can decide on the maximum desired level of pollution in an area. 🗸🗸 It then distribute pollution rights (marketable permits) to factories within that area. 🗸🗸 This means that each factory can pollute to a certain limit. 🗸🗸 It means that marketable permits are licenses that polluters can buy or sell to meet the control levels set by government. 🗸🗸

Education Incorporating topics into the curriculum of school fosters awareness. 🗸🗸 The public is gradually been made aware of this rising problem. 🗸🗸 Plastic, bottles and cartons can be recycled or made biodegradable. 🗸🗸

Public sector control If the government’s intervention does not attain the desired results, then it has to intervene more directly by setting and enforcing limits. 🗸🗸

Environmental Impact Assessment In SA every projected construction, mining or similar development has to undergo an assessment by qualified environmental professionals. 🗸🗸 To prove that it will not cause unwarranted environmental damage and that the damage can be repaired after construction. 🗸🗸 The cost if built into the project. 🗸🗸

Command and Control Regulations that are set and enforce environmental limits or standards. 🗸🗸 Quantity: e.g. set the limit to the amount of fish to catch, or limit the season catching certain species of fish. 🗸🗸 Quality: e.g. drinking water quality is carefully monitored and controlled. 🗸🗸 Air quality in workplace is subject to minimum standards. 🗸🗸 Social effect: e.g. noxious fumes from factories, dumping of medical waste near settlements, and noise pollution. 🗸🗸

Voluntary agreements Agreements between government and businesses voluntarily to address negative environmental impacts of industries. 🗸🗸 Businesses voluntary agree to decrease the emissions of pollutants. 🗸🗸 Most prefer negotiations so that they can tailor their specific needs and include it into their planning🗸🗸 Agreements can be formal, which is legally binding contract or informal. 🗸🗸 [Max 26]

ADDITIONAL PART Government does not exercise effective control over the continuous dumping of waste because of a lack of coordination between departments. 🗸🗸 The fines imposed on industries that dump waste are too lenient and they continue polluting the environment. 🗸🗸

The minimum standards set for hazardous gas and fuel emissions are not enforced or adjusted. 🗸🗸 The recycling of waste materials are not widely encouraged and promoted and landfill sites are overflowing. 🗸🗸 Government has various laws that is not really effectively implemented. 🗸🗸 Poor service delivery also adds to the problem in certain areas. 🗸🗸 [Accept any other relevant answer] [Max 10]

CONCLUSION Each and every individual, business and government needs to stand together to save our planet. [Accept any other relevant conclusion] [Max 2] Discuss in detail the following problems and the international measures taken to ensure sustainable development (Environmental Sustainability)

INTRODUCTION Environment refers to the physical surroundings and physical conditions that affect people’s lives. 🗸🗸 The ever-increasing pressure on our environment originates from increasing population numbers and excessive consumption🗸🗸 Our air, land, and water are under constant assault from the ever-growing ravages of man-made pollution generated chiefly by industrialized societies. 🗸🗸 [Accept any appropriate introduction] [Max 2]

BODY-MAIN PART Conservation

Conservation is necessary because human actions cause pollution and over-utilisation of resources. 🗸🗸
Conservation is a strategy aimed at achieving the sustainable use and management of natural resources. 🗸🗸
Conservation seeks a creative continuity of the environment while ensuring that change is sympathetic to the quality of life for both present and future generations. 🗸🗸
Certain aspects of conservation need to be taken into account.
Firstly, there is an opportunity cost. 🗸🗸
Secondly, externalities are often present. 🗸🗸
Lastly, self-interest has a short term horizon – meaning that decisions cannot be left entirely to market forces. 🗸🗸
Over utilization of resources causes a reduction in supply, increase in prices, contradiction of demand and a search for substitutes. 🗸🗸
This necessitates conservation of both renewable and non-renewable resources. 🗸🗸
Conservation has to be concerned with limiting what is harvested in order to maintain a stable stock at least at the minimum level. 🗸🗸
Government can use permits and quotas as two possible direct control methods in order to maintain the stock of resources at the minimum level. 🗸🗸

Preservation

Preservation involves any strategy undertaken to safeguard the environment, maintain its current condition and keep it as habitable as possible for people and animals. 🗸🗸
Heritage sites, indigenous forests, specifies of animals etc. that have special cultural or environmental significance, are often targeted preservation. 🗸🗸
Preservation is not likely to work as a private enterprise because the benefit to society is much bigger than the income of the producer. 🗸🗸
It may be possible to use cost-benefit analysis to calculate the social benefits of preservation of the environment.
The weaknesses in market solutions require the government to intervene in order to preserve environment assets. 🗸🗸
Government could do any of the following:
Buy or expropriate – Environmental assets are simply closed for human use. 🗸🗸
Subsidise-A subsidy would increase net benefits to the owner and raise the property’s present value. 🗸🗸
Controls – The government can compel the owner to apply control measures like restricting the quantities exploited or number of visitors allowed per day. 🗸🗸 [26 Max]

ADDITIONAL PART Stockholm Conference (1972)

The Stockholm Conference was the first major large scale international meeting on the environment convened with the support of the United Nations. 🗸🗸
The meeting agreed upon a declaration containing 26 principles concerning the environment and development, an action plan with 109 recommendations and a resolution. 🗸🗸
The meeting directly impacted on the environmental policies of many countries. 🗸🗸

Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit (1992)

This meeting acknowledged the importance of cooperation in addressing environmental concerns that threaten sustainability. 🗸🗸
The conference helped to make countries around the world aware of the dangers of unsustainable development. 🗸🗸
Unfortunately the principles outlined and accepted at the summit were not binding and subsequently many countries did not confirm to them. 🗸🗸

Rio + 5 (1997)

This conference noted that globalization made some countries poorer – 🗸🗸
In particular African countries and the least developed countries showed a low level of growth or even declined. 🗸🗸

Kyoto Protocol for Climate Change (1997)

Countries committed themselves to reducing their total emissions of greenhouse by 5 %.🗸🗸
Unfortunately, China was excluded from this agreement and the USA withdrew. 🗸🗸

World Summit on Sustainable Development (2002)

The objective of this summit held in Johannesburg was to conserve natural resources in a world that is growing in population. 🗸🗸
The meeting focused on issues like poverty eradication, water and sanitation, energy, health agriculture and biodiversity. 🗸🗸

COP 17 (2011)

The main goal of the conference held in Durban was to establish a treaty to limit carbon emissions and plan strategies to keep global temperature rise to less than 2 degree Celsius in the 21st Century. 🗸🗸
Although the framework for this treaty was established it was not finalised. 🗸🗸
The solution to our environmental problems will depend on our ability to make sound economic decisions that take account of the natural environment and to change our individual behaviour and attitudes. 🗸🗸 [Accept any other relevant conclusion] [Max 2]

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First prize: RM 1,000.00 Second prize: RM 800.00 Third prize: RM 600.00 Three consolation prizes: RM350.00 each

First prize: Zhi Shen Kerk and Han Ying (Iring) Zhang (International School of Kuala Lumpur) - essay
Second prize: Kan Zheng Hou and Foo Zi Yan (Kuen Cheng High School, Kuala Lumpur) - essay
Third prize: Lim Kah Xuan and Leong Yu Chen (Kluang Chong Hwa High School, Kluang, Johor) - essay
Lim Qi Zhi and Lim Qi Zao (SMJK Katholik, Petaling Jaya, Selangor) - essay
Joshua Chin Yue Yong (Diploma in Marketing, Tunku Abdul Rahman University of Management and Technology, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah) - essay
Saw Xiao Shan (Cambridge International A-Levels, Institut Sinaran, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah) - essay

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WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION

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ESSAY AWARD FOR YOUNG ECONOMISTS

Last year's winner, Mathilde Muñoz, said: “I would encourage all young economists to take part in this competition. It's incredibly useful to connect one's research with people responsible for implementing trade policy and to delve into the current problems in world trade and what the negotiations are all about.”

The annual WTO Essay Award provides a prize of CHF 5,000 to the author(s) of the winning essay. In the case of a co-authored paper, the prize will be equally divided among the authors. The winning paper will be officially announced at the annual meeting of the European Trade Study Group (ETSG), the largest conference specializing in international trade. The award ceremony will take place on 14-16 September 2023 at the University of Surrey in the United Kingdom. The winning author will receive funding to attend the meeting.

An Academic Selection Panel is responsible for the selection of the winning paper. The panel comprises:

Professor Beata Javorcik (University of Oxford)
Professor Robert Staiger (Dartmouth College)
Professor Alberto Trejos (INCAE Business School).

Professor Ralph Ossa (Director, Economic Research and Statistics Division, WTO Secretariat) is ex officio member of the panel. Dr Roberta Piermartini (Chief, Trade Cost Analysis Section, WTO) coordinates the work of the selection panel.

Eligibility

The paper must address issues related to trade policy and international trade cooperation. The author(s) of the paper must possess or be engaged in the completion of a PhD degree and, if over 30 years of age, be no more than two years past a PhD defense. In the case of co-authored papers, this requirement shall apply to all authors. In addition, to be considered for the award, essays cannot exceed 15,000 words.

More news on the WTO Essay Award is available here .

Past winners

2022 : Mathilde Muñoz (James M. and Cathleen D. Stone Center on Wealth and Income Inequality, University of California, Berkeley) 2021 : Tomas Dominguez-Iino (New York University) and Swapnika Rachapalli (University of Toronto) 2020 : Xian Ding (Harvard University) 2019 : Jan Bakker (Oxford University) and Federico Huneeus (Princeton University) 2018 : Alonso de Gortari (Harvard University) 2017 : Meredith Startz (Princeton University) 2016 : Matthieu Bellon (Columbia University) 2015 : Christoph Boehm (University of Michigan), Aaron Flaaen (Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington D.C.) and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar (University of Michigan) 2014 : Jonathan Dingel (Columbia University) and Claudia Steinwender (LSE) 2013 : Felix Tintelnot (Princeton University) 2012 : Treb Allen (Yale University) 2011 : Rafael Dix-Carneiro (University of Maryland) and Kyle Handley (Stanford University) 2010 : Dave Donaldson (MIT) and Olena Ivus (Queen's University) 2009 : Ralph Ossa (University of Chicago). The runner-up was Mostafa Beshkar (University of New Hampshire)

Essays must be submitted by 2 June 2023 . The Economic Research and Statistics Division of the WTO Secretariat will shortlist eligible papers by 16 June 2023 and the selection panel will take a final decision by 7 July 2023 . Only the author(s) of short-listed essays will be notified.

Publication

The winning essay may be published in the WTO Working Paper Series. It is the responsibility of the author(s) to endeavour to secure publication of the contribution in a journal.

Submissions

All submissions should be sent to [email protected] . Submissions should include as separate attachments in PDF format:

the CV of the author(s), specifying (i) current affiliation(s), (ii) the academic institution awarding the PhD, (iii) the year (or the expected year) of the PhD, (iv) the date of birth of the author(s).

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The 2023 AEJ Best Paper Awards Have Been Announced

Announcement
May 2, 2023

The 2023 AEJ Best Paper Awards have been announced. The papers selected are highlighted below.

AEJ: Applied Economics

In " The Evolution of Work in the United States ," authors Enghin Atalay, Phai Phongthiengtham, Sebastian Sotelo, and Daniel Tannenbaum organized millions of job postings in the Boston Globe , the New York Times , and the Wall Street Journal from 1950 to 2000. By analyzing the text of each job description, the researchers were able to see how tasks within a job title have evolved. In particular, they tracked five categories of tasks: nonroutine analytic, nonroutine interactive, nonroutine manual, routine cognitive, and routine manual. They argue that the move away from routine cognitive and manual tasks and toward nonroutine interactive and analytic tasks has been larger than previously thought. ( AEJ: Applied Economics , Volume 12, No. 2, April 2020 )

AEJ: Economic Policy

In " Technology, Taxation, and Corruption: Evidence from the Introduction of Electronic Tax Filing ," authors Oyebola Okunogbe and Victor Pouliquen examine the impact of replacing in-person tax filing to officials with electronic filing. Using data from nearly 1,500 small and medium-sized businesses in Tajikistan, they found that e-filing reduced the time spent on taxes by 40 percent. While the new technology doubled the taxes paid by firms previously more likely to evade, it reduced tax payments among those previously less likely to evade. The researchers say that these patterns are consistent unequal treatment by tax officials towards businesses prior to the adoption of e-filing. ( AEJ: Economic Policy , Vol. 14, No. 1, February 2022 )

AEJ: Macroeconomics

In " The Rise of the Machines: Automation, Horizontal Innovation, and Income Inequality ," authors David Hémous and Morten Olsen analyzed the interplay between the replacement of low-skill workers with machines and the creation of new products. Using an endogenous growth model, they find that in an economy where low-skill wages are low, there is little automation. But as low-skill wages increase with the creation of new products, the incentive to automate increases and with it the share of automation innovation. As a result, the skill premium rises and the labor share declines. Their findings offer a new perspective on recent trends in the income distribution by showing that it may be a natural outcome of a growing economy. ( American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics Vol. 14 No. 1 January 2022 )

AEJ: Microeconomics

In " Common Ownership in America: 1980–2017 ," authors Matthew Backus, Christopher Conlon, and Michael Sinkinson explore the implications of the common ownership hypothesis, which says that large, diversified owners may not always focus on maximizing their own profits because they also value the profits of their ostensible competitors. They show that the dramatic rise in common ownership from 1980 to 2017 is driven primarily by the rise of indexing and diversification, as well as some investor concentration. The researchers' develop new testable implications of the common ownership hypothesis and shed light on the plausibility of these implications. ( American Economic Journal: Microeconomics Vol. 13 No. 3 August 2021 )

May 2023 Papers for CAIE Qualifications Available Now! Read More.

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Announcing the NeurIPS 2023 Paper Awards

Communications Chairs 2023 2023 Conference awards , neurips2023

By Amir Globerson, Kate Saenko, Moritz Hardt, Sergey Levine and Comms Chair, Sahra Ghalebikesabi

We are honored to announce the award-winning papers for NeurIPS 2023! This year’s prestigious awards consist of the Test of Time Award plus two Outstanding Paper Awards in each of these three categories:

Two Outstanding Main Track Papers
Two Outstanding Main Track Runner-Ups
Two Outstanding Datasets and Benchmark Track Papers

This year’s organizers received a record number of paper submissions. Of the 13,300 submitted papers that were reviewed by 968 Area Chairs, 98 senior area chairs, and 396 Ethics reviewers 3,540 were accepted after 502 papers were flagged for ethics reviews .

We thank the awards committee for the main track: Yoav Artzi, Chelsea Finn, Ludwig Schmidt, Ricardo Silva, Isabel Valera, and Mengdi Wang. For the Datasets and Benchmarks track, we thank Sergio Escalera, Isabelle Guyon, Neil Lawrence, Dina Machuve, Olga Russakovsky, Hugo Jair Escalante, Deepti Ghadiyaram, and Serena Yeung. Conflicts of interest were taken into account in the decision process.

Congratulations to all the authors! See Posters Sessions Tue-Thur in Great Hall & B1-B2 (level 1).

Outstanding Main Track Papers

Privacy Auditing with One (1) Training Run Authors: Thomas Steinke · Milad Nasr · Matthew Jagielski

Poster session 2: Tue 12 Dec 5:15 p.m. — 7:15 p.m. CST, #1523

Oral: Tue 12 Dec 3:40 p.m. — 4:40 p.m. CST, Room R06-R09 (level 2)

Abstract: We propose a scheme for auditing differentially private machine learning systems with a single training run. This exploits the parallelism of being able to add or remove multiple training examples independently. We analyze this using the connection between differential privacy and statistical generalization, which avoids the cost of group privacy. Our auditing scheme requires minimal assumptions about the algorithm and can be applied in the black-box or white-box setting. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework by applying it to DP-SGD, where we can achieve meaningful empirical privacy lower bounds by training only one model. In contrast, standard methods would require training hundreds of models.

Are Emergent Abilities of Large Language Models a Mirage? Authors: Rylan Schaeffer · Brando Miranda · Sanmi Koyejo

Poster session 6: Thu 14 Dec 5:00 p.m. — 7:00 p.m. CST, #1108

Oral: Thu 14 Dec 3:20 p.m. — 3:35 p.m. CST, Hall C2 (level 1)

Abstract: Recent work claims that large language models display emergent abilities, abilities not present in smaller-scale models that are present in larger-scale models. What makes emergent abilities intriguing is two-fold: their sharpness, transitioning seemingly instantaneously from not present to present, and their unpredictability , appearing at seemingly unforeseeable model scales. Here, we present an alternative explanation for emergent abilities: that for a particular task and model family, when analyzing fixed model outputs, emergent abilities appear due to the researcher’s choice of metric rather than due to fundamental changes in model behavior with scale. Specifically, nonlinear or discontinuous metrics produce apparent emergent abilities, whereas linear or continuous metrics produce smooth, continuous, predictable changes in model performance. We present our alternative explanation in a simple mathematical model, then test it in three complementary ways: we (1) make, test and confirm three predictions on the effect of metric choice using the InstructGPT/GPT-3 family on tasks with claimed emergent abilities, (2) make, test and confirm two predictions about metric choices in a meta-analysis of emergent abilities on BIG-Bench; and (3) show how to choose metrics to produce never-before-seen seemingly emergent abilities in multiple vision tasks across diverse deep networks. Via all three analyses, we provide evidence that alleged emergent abilities evaporate with different metrics or with better statistics, and may not be a fundamental property of scaling AI models.

Outstanding Main Track Runner-Ups

Scaling Data-Constrained Language Models Authors : Niklas Muennighoff · Alexander Rush · Boaz Barak · Teven Le Scao · Nouamane Tazi · Aleksandra Piktus · Sampo Pyysalo · Thomas Wolf · Colin Raffel

Poster session 2: Tue 12 Dec 5:15 p.m. — 7:15 p.m. CST, #813

Oral: Tue 12 Dec 3:40 p.m. — 4:40 p.m. CST, Hall C2 (level 1)

Abstract : The current trend of scaling language models involves increasing both parameter count and training dataset size. Extrapolating this trend suggests that training dataset size may soon be limited by the amount of text data available on the internet. Motivated by this limit, we investigate scaling language models in data-constrained regimes. Specifically, we run a large set of experiments varying the extent of data repetition and compute budget, ranging up to 900 billion training tokens and 9 billion parameter models. We find that with constrained data for a fixed compute budget, training with up to 4 epochs of repeated data yields negligible changes to loss compared to having unique data. However, with more repetition, the value of adding compute eventually decays to zero. We propose and empirically validate a scaling law for compute optimality that accounts for the decreasing value of repeated tokens and excess parameters. Finally, we experiment with approaches mitigating data scarcity, including augmenting the training dataset with code data or removing commonly used filters. Models and datasets from our 400 training runs are freely available at https://github.com/huggingface/datablations .

Direct Preference Optimization: Your Language Model is Secretly a Reward Model Authors: Rafael Rafailov · Archit Sharma · Eric Mitchell · Christopher D Manning · Stefano Ermon · Chelsea Finn

Poster session 6: Thu 14 Dec 5:00 p.m. — 7:00 p.m. CST, #625

Oral: Thu 14 Dec 3:50 p.m. — 4:05 p.m. CST, Ballroom A-C (level 2)

Abstract: While large-scale unsupervised language models (LMs) learn broad world knowledge and some reasoning skills, achieving precise control of their behavior is difficult due to the completely unsupervised nature of their training. Existing methods for gaining such steerability collect human labels of the relative quality of model generations and fine-tune the unsupervised LM to align with these preferences, often with reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF). However, RLHF is a complex and often unstable procedure, first fitting a reward model that reflects the human preferences, and then fine-tuning the large unsupervised LM using reinforcement learning to maximize this estimated reward without drifting too far from the original model. In this paper, we leverage a mapping between reward functions and optimal policies to show that this constrained reward maximization problem can be optimized exactly with a single stage of policy training, essentially solving a classification problem on the human preference data. The resulting algorithm, which we call Direct Preference Optimization (DPO), is stable, performant, and computationally lightweight, eliminating the need for fitting a reward model, sampling from the LM during fine-tuning, or performing significant hyperparameter tuning. Our experiments show that DPO can fine-tune LMs to align with human preferences as well as or better than existing methods. Notably, fine-tuning with DPO exceeds RLHF’s ability to control sentiment of generations and improves response quality in summarization and single-turn dialogue while being substantially simpler to implement and train.

Outstanding Datasets and Benchmarks Papers

In the dataset category :

ClimSim: A large multi-scale dataset for hybrid physics-ML climate emulation

Authors: Sungduk Yu · Walter Hannah · Liran Peng · Jerry Lin · Mohamed Aziz Bhouri · Ritwik Gupta · Björn Lütjens · Justus C. Will · Gunnar Behrens · Julius Busecke · Nora Loose · Charles Stern · Tom Beucler · Bryce Harrop · Benjamin Hillman · Andrea Jenney · Savannah L. Ferretti · Nana Liu · Animashree Anandkumar · Noah Brenowitz · Veronika Eyring · Nicholas Geneva · Pierre Gentine · Stephan Mandt · Jaideep Pathak · Akshay Subramaniam · Carl Vondrick · Rose Yu · Laure Zanna · Tian Zheng · Ryan Abernathey · Fiaz Ahmed · David Bader · Pierre Baldi · Elizabeth Barnes · Christopher Bretherton · Peter Caldwell · Wayne Chuang · Yilun Han · YU HUANG · Fernando Iglesias-Suarez · Sanket Jantre · Karthik Kashinath · Marat Khairoutdinov · Thorsten Kurth · Nicholas Lutsko · Po-Lun Ma · Griffin Mooers · J. David Neelin · David Randall · Sara Shamekh · Mark Taylor · Nathan Urban · Janni Yuval · Guang Zhang · Mike Pritchard

Poster session 4: Wed 13 Dec 5:00 p.m. — 7:00 p.m. CST, #105

Oral: Wed 13 Dec 3:45 p.m. — 4:00 p.m. CST, Ballroom A-C (level 2)

Abstract: Modern climate projections lack adequate spatial and temporal resolution due to computational constraints. A consequence is inaccurate and imprecise predictions of critical processes such as storms. Hybrid methods that combine physics with machine learning (ML) have introduced a new generation of higher fidelity climate simulators that can sidestep Moore’s Law by outsourcing compute-hungry, short, high-resolution simulations to ML emulators. However, this hybrid ML-physics simulation approach requires domain-specific treatment and has been inaccessible to ML experts because of lack of training data and relevant, easy-to-use workflows. We present ClimSim, the largest-ever dataset designed for hybrid ML-physics research. It comprises multi-scale climate simulations, developed by a consortium of climate scientists and ML researchers. It consists of 5.7 billion pairs of multivariate input and output vectors that isolate the influence of locally-nested, high-resolution, high-fidelity physics on a host climate simulator’s macro-scale physical state. The dataset is global in coverage, spans multiple years at high sampling frequency, and is designed such that resulting emulators are compatible with downstream coupling into operational climate simulators. We implement a range of deterministic and stochastic regression baselines to highlight the ML challenges and their scoring. The data (https://huggingface.co/datasets/LEAP/ClimSim_high-res) and code (https://leap-stc.github.io/ClimSim) are released openly to support the development of hybrid ML-physics and high-fidelity climate simulations for the benefit of science and society.

In the benchmark category :

DecodingTrust: A Comprehensive Assessment of Trustworthiness in GPT Models

Authors: Boxin Wang · Weixin Chen · Hengzhi Pei · Chulin Xie · Mintong Kang · Chenhui Zhang · Chejian Xu · Zidi Xiong · Ritik Dutta · Rylan Schaeffer · Sang Truong · Simran Arora · Mantas Mazeika · Dan Hendrycks · Zinan Lin · Yu Cheng · Sanmi Koyejo · Dawn Song · Bo Li

Poster session 1: Tue 12 Dec 10:45 a.m. — 12:45 p.m. CST, #1618

Oral: Tue 12 Dec 10:30 a.m. — 10:45 a.m. CST, Ballroom A-C (Level 2)

Abstract: Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) models have exhibited exciting progress in capabilities, capturing the interest of practitioners and the public alike. Yet, while the literature on the trustworthiness of GPT models remains limited, practitioners have proposed employing capable GPT models for sensitive applications to healthcare and finance – where mistakes can be costly. To this end, this work proposes a comprehensive trustworthiness evaluation for large language models with a focus on GPT-4 and GPT-3.5, considering diverse perspectives – including toxicity, stereotype bias, adversarial robustness, out-of-distribution robustness, robustness on adversarial demonstrations, privacy, machine ethics, and fairness. Based on our evaluations, we discover previously unpublished vulnerabilities to trustworthiness threats. For instance, we find that GPT models can be easily misled to generate toxic and biased outputs and leak private information in both training data and conversation history. We also find that although GPT-4 is usually more trustworthy than GPT-3.5 on standard benchmarks, GPT-4 is more vulnerable given jailbreaking system or user prompts, potentially due to the reason that GPT-4 follows the (misleading) instructions more precisely. Our work illustrates a comprehensive trustworthiness evaluation of GPT models and sheds light on the trustworthiness gaps. Our benchmark is publicly available at https://decodingtrust.github.io/.

Test of Time

This year, following the usual practice, we chose a NeurIPS paper from 10 years ago to receive the Test of Time Award, and “ Distributed Representations of Words and Phrases and their Compositionality ” by Tomas Mikolov, Ilya Sutskever, Kai Chen, Greg Corrado, and Jeffrey Dean, won.

Published at NeurIPS 2013 and cited over 40,000 times, the work introduced the seminal word embedding technique word2vec. Demonstrating the power of learning from large amounts of unstructured text, the work catalyzed progress that marked the beginning of a new era in natural language processing.

Greg Corrado and Jeffrey Dean will be giving a talk about this work and related research on Tuesday, 12 Dec at 3:05 – 3:25 pm CST in Hall F.

2023 Conference

Announcing NeurIPS 2023 Invited Talks

Reflections on the neurips 2023 ethics review process, neurips newsletter – november 2023.

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Clean energy is boosting economic growth

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IEA (2024), Clean energy is boosting economic growth , IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/commentaries/clean-energy-is-boosting-economic-growth, Licence: CC BY 4.0

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Clean energy is moving towards centre stage in the global energy system – and as its importance rises, a new clean energy economy is emerging .

Clean electricity accounted for around 80% of new capacity additions to the world’s electricity system in 2023, and electric vehicles for around one out of five cars sold globally. At the same time, global investment in clean energy manufacturing is booming, driven by industrial policies and market demand. Employment in clean energy jobs exceeded that of fossil fuels in 2021 and continues to grow.

Quantifying the expanding role of clean energy in the economy is therefore essential to fully understand the stakes and momentum behind energy transitions.

Clean energy accounted for 10% of global GDP growth in 2023

Our new country-by-country and sector-by-sector analysis finds that in 2023, clean energy added around USD 320 billion to the world economy. This represented 10% of global GDP growth – equivalent to more than the value added by the global aerospace industry in 2023, or to adding an economy the size of the Czech Republic to global output.

This assessment is based on a first-of-its-kind analysis of three categories of activity in the clean energy sector:

Manufacturing of clean energy technologies : investment in clean energy manufacturing, covering the value chains for solar PV, wind power and battery manufacturing
Deployment of clean power capacity : investment in deployment of clean electricity generation capacity – such as solar PV, wind power, nuclear power and battery storage – and in electricity networks
Clean equipment sales : sales of electric cars (EVs) and heat pumps.

It is based on detailed project-by-project data gathered and processed by the International Energy Agency (IEA) from primary and secondary sources. We conducted this analysis at the country level, and present here the in-depth results for four of the largest economies: the United States, the European Union, China and India, which together account for two-thirds of global GDP. 1

GDP in the United States grew by a robust 2.5% in 2023. Clean energy was an important contributor: The Inflation Reduction Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law drove a surge in investment in clean energy manufacturing, and sales of EVs also grew strongly. Consequently, clean energy growth accounted for around 6% of GDP growth in the world’s largest economy in 2023. This is comparable in scale to the contribution to GDP growth in 2023 from the United States’ booming, artificial-intelligence-driven digital economy. 2

Clean energy accounted for around one-fifth of China’s 5.2% GDP growth in 2023. Each of the three categories assessed grew strongly, with the largest increase coming from investment in clean power capacity, followed by clean equipment sales, particularly EVs. Expansion in clean energy manufacturing accounted for around 5% of China’s GDP growth in 2023, although the country’s surplus production capacity in technologies such as batteries (utilisation rates were around 30% in 2023) may limit the scope of this growth driver going forward. Similar assessments have come to comparable conclusions, albeit with slightly different boundaries.

In the European Union, clean energy accounted for nearly one-third of GDP growth in 2023, the highest share of any region assessed, although its share is inflated by weak overall GDP growth of around 0.5%. Nonetheless, the EU’s strong climate targets and policies, such as the Fit for 55 package and the proposed Net Zero Industry Act, are supporting investments in clean energy manufacturing, which more than doubled between 2022 and 2023, driven in particular by battery manufacturing.

India was the fastest growing large economy in 2023, with GDP increasing by around 7.7%. Clean energy contributed slightly less than 5% of GDP growth in 2023, predominantly from investment in new solar power capacity. Meanwhile, policies such as the Production Linked Incentive are attracting investment in new clean energy manufacturing capacity. In 2023, this remained relatively small as a portion of India’s overall economy, but interest from businesses and investors is increasing.

Contribution of investment and sales in selected clean energy technologies to GDP growth, 2023

Assessing the extent to which different sectors of the clean energy economy contribute to GDP growth from year to year helps show the direction of travel. Yet looking at their share of GDP in a single year is also useful in understanding their economic importance. In 2023, clean energy investment and sales accounted for between 1% and 4% of total GDP in the four major regions assessed – substantial shares in the context of these large and diversified economies. The chemicals industry accounts for about 3% of value added in India and China. Clean energy technologies therefore already provide a sizable contribution to GDP in these economies today.

The clean energy sector also drove a substantial share of total investment growth across the economy in these regions in 2023. In the case of China, it contributed 50% of the growth in total investment in 2023, and 20% in the United States. At the global level, we estimate that around USD 200 billion was invested in clean energy technology manufacturing in 2023, an increase of 75% over the previous year. This compares with global capital investment in semiconductor manufacturing of around USD 170 billion to 250 billion per year in recent years.

Share of investment and sales in selected clean energy technologies in GDP, 2023

Share of investment in selected clean energy technologies in total investment, 2023.

This analysis highlights the scale and weight of the clean energy economy. It shows that it is not only growing quickly, but also has already become a powerful economic force. As energy transitions advance, clean energy’s importance for economies around the world is only set to grow further.

Modernising energy and industrial systems to drive energy transitions requires very large investments and the transformation of huge markets. It also comes with many significant benefits beyond mitigating climate change and reducing air pollution alone; in 2023, 36 million workers were employed across clean energy supply chains.

And while China still leads in investment in the manufacturing of clean energy technologies, other regions are also seeing a jump in projects and investments. The large share of one country has raised questions about the resilience and diversity of global clean energy technology supply chains, but it also currently provides opportunities to accelerate global decarbonisation based on an abundant supply of low-cost clean energy equipment. The analysis developed here highlights the importance of comprehensively assessing the size of the clean energy economy when designing energy, climate and industrial policies.

The estimates for investment in the manufacturing of clean energy technologies come from a first-of-its-kind analysis that builds on methodologies developed in the IEA’s The State of Clean Technology Manufacturing report and Energy Technology Perspectives reports. The detailed findings will be presented in the upcoming Energy Technology Perspectives Special Report Advancing Clean Technology Manufacturing , requested by G7 Leaders at the 2023 Hiroshima Summit in Japan. Investment in the deployment of clean power capacity comes from the forthcoming edition of our World Energy Investment series. Macroeconomic data comes from Oxford Economics, based on national sources, in order to ensure cross-country consistency.

In 2023 , the “data processing, internet publishing, and other information services” sector contributed around 9% to real growth in gross value added (GVA).

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Guest Essay

We Don’t See What Climate Change Is Doing to Us

A photograph of a group of people walking toward the camera, their heads down to avoid the sun’s glare. Some of them are holding their hands over their eyes.

By R. Jisung Park

Dr. Park is an environmental and labor economist and assistant professor at the University of Pennsylvania and the author of “Slow Burn: The Hidden Costs of a Warming World.”

Many of us realize climate change is a threat to our well-being. But what we have not yet grasped is that the devastation wreaked by climate change comes not just from headline-grabbing catastrophes but also from the subtler accumulation of innumerable slow and unequal burns that are already underway — the nearly invisible costs that may not raise the same alarm but that, in their pervasiveness and inequality, may be much more harmful than commonly realized. Recognizing these hidden costs will be essential as we prepare ourselves for the warming that we have ahead of us.

Responsibility for mitigating climate change on the local level lies in part with public institutions not only in encouraging emissions reductions but also in facilitating adaptation. Public discourse around climate change too often misses the central role that local institutions play in this latter function, how much of the realized pain locally depends on not simply the physical phenomena of climate change per se but also how they interact with human systems — economic, educational, legal and political.

Let’s start with heat, which is killing more people than most other natural disasters combined. Research shows that record-breaking heat waves are only part of the story. Instead, it may be the far more numerous unremarkably hot days that cause the bulk of societal destruction, including through their complex and often unnoticed effects on human health and productivity. In the United States, even moderately elevated temperatures — days in the 80s or 90s Fahrenheit — are responsible for just as many excess deaths as the record triple-digit heat waves, if not more, according to my calculations based on a recent analysis of Medicare records.

In some highly exposed and physically demanding industries, like mining, a day in the 90s can increase injury risk by over 65 percent relative to a day in the 60s. While some of these incidents involve clear cases of heat illness, my colleagues and I have found that a vast majority appear to come from ostensibly unrelated accidents, like construction workers falling off ladders and manufacturing workers mishandling hazardous machinery. In California, our research shows, heat might have routinely caused 20,000 workplace injuries per year, only a tiny fraction of which were officially recorded as heat-related.

A growing body of literature links temperature to cognitive performance and decision making. Research shows that hotter days lead to more mistakes, including among professional athletes ; more local crime ; and more violence in prisons , according to working papers. They also correspond with more use of profanity on social media , suggesting that even an incrementally hotter world is likely to be a nontrivially more irritable, error-prone and conflictual one.

Children are not immune. In research using over four million student test scores from New York City, I found that, from 1999 to 2011, students who took their high school Regents exams on a 90-degree day were 10 percent less likely to pass their subjects relative to a day in the 60s. In other research, my colleagues Joshua Goodman, Michael Hurwitz and Jonathan Smith and I found that across the country, hotter school years led to slower gains on standardized exams like the Preliminary SAT exams. It may not seem a huge effect, on average: roughly 1 percent of learning lost per one-degree-hotter school year temperatures. Probably hardly noticeable in any given year. But because these learning effects are cumulative, they may have significant consequences.

And that’s just heat. Researchers are bringing to light the more subtle yet cumulatively damaging effects of increased wildfires and other natural disasters. The hidden consequences of wildfire smoke may cut even deeper than the more visible death and destruction caused by the flames. Tallying the downstream economic and health costs of smoke exposure, researchers have estimated in a not-yet-published paper that increased wildfire smoke due to climate change may cause more than 20,000 additional deaths per year nationwide by 2050. Very few of these will be officially categorized as having been caused by wildfires, because they will have been the result of the cumulative influence of worsened air quality and weakened health over the course of many weeks and months. Research now suggests that wildfire smoke can adversely affect fetal health , student learning and workers’ earnings as well.

Since even noncatastrophic climate change may be more subtly damaging and inequality amplifying than we used to think, local interventions are essential to help us prepare for the warming that is to come.

At present, our social and economic systems are not well prepared to adjust to the accumulating damage wreaked by climate change, even though much of what determines whether climate change hurts us depends on the choices we make as individuals and as a society. Whether a hot day leads to mild discomfort or widespread mortality comes down to human decisions — individual decisions such as whether to install and operate air-conditioning and collective decisions around the pricing and availability of insurance, the allocation of hospital beds or the procedures and norms governing how and when people work.

Recent research indicates that how temperature affects human health depends greatly on the adaptations that happen to be at play locally. For instance, a day above 85 degrees in the coldest U.S. ZIP codes has nearly 10 times the effect on elderly mortality relative to in the warmest ZIP codes. In other words, a string of such days in a place like Seattle will lead to a much higher increase in the mortality rate than in a place like Houston, even though both places have similar income levels. In rural India , institutional factors like access to banking may affect how many lives are ultimately lost because of heat; heat can reduce crop yields, leaving subsistence farmers dependent on financing sources to keep them afloat.

In our research of heat and learning , we found that the adverse effects of a one-degree-hotter school year are two to three times as large for Black and Hispanic students, who are less likely to have working air-conditioning at school or at home even within a given city, and are virtually nonexistent in schools and neighborhoods with high levels of home and school air-conditioning. We estimate that hotter temperatures may already be responsible for 5 percent of racial academic achievement gaps. Without remedial investments, climate change is likely to widen these gaps. With a shift in focus to these subtler social costs, we can devise and carry out more effective strategies. But right now, adaptation efforts remain highly fragmented and are often focused on more visibly salient climate hazards, like storm surges .

And, of course, an empirically nuanced understanding of climate damages makes it even clearer that reducing emissions aggressively makes cost-benefit sense not only because we want to insure against total ecological breakdown (cue “extinction rebellion” and “tipping points”) but also because the economic costs of even noncatastrophic warming may be considerable. Recent Environmental Protection Agency estimates that incorporate just some of these cumulative impacts suggest that a single ton of carbon dioxide sets in motion $190 worth of future social costs, which means that technologies that can reduce such emissions at a lower per-ton cost are most likely worth pursuing.

Climate change is a complex phenomenon whose ultimate costs will depend not only on how quickly we transition away from fossil fuels but also on how well we adapt our social and economic systems to the warming we have in store. A proactive stance toward adaptation and resilience may be useful from the standpoint of safeguarding one’s own physical and financial security, whether as a homeowner or the head of a Fortune 500 company. It may be vital for ensuring that the ladders of economic opportunity are not deteriorating for those attempting to climb its lower rungs.

R. Jisung Park is an environmental and labor economist and assistant professor at the University of Pennsylvania and the author of “Slow Burn: The Hidden Costs of a Warming World.”

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Gender pay gap in U.S. hasn’t changed much in two decades

The gender gap in pay has remained relatively stable in the United States over the past 20 years or so. In 2022, women earned an average of 82% of what men earned, according to a new Pew Research Center analysis of median hourly earnings of both full- and part-time workers. These results are similar to where the pay gap stood in 2002, when women earned 80% as much as men.

A chart showing that the Gender pay gap in the U.S. has not closed in recent years, but is narrower among young workers

As has long been the case, the wage gap is smaller for workers ages 25 to 34 than for all workers 16 and older. In 2022, women ages 25 to 34 earned an average of 92 cents for every dollar earned by a man in the same age group – an 8-cent gap. By comparison, the gender pay gap among workers of all ages that year was 18 cents.

While the gender pay gap has not changed much in the last two decades, it has narrowed considerably when looking at the longer term, both among all workers ages 16 and older and among those ages 25 to 34. The estimated 18-cent gender pay gap among all workers in 2022 was down from 35 cents in 1982. And the 8-cent gap among workers ages 25 to 34 in 2022 was down from a 26-cent gap four decades earlier.

The gender pay gap measures the difference in median hourly earnings between men and women who work full or part time in the United States. Pew Research Center’s estimate of the pay gap is based on an analysis of Current Population Survey (CPS) monthly outgoing rotation group files ( IPUMS ) from January 1982 to December 2022, combined to create annual files. To understand how we calculate the gender pay gap, read our 2013 post, “How Pew Research Center measured the gender pay gap.”

The COVID-19 outbreak affected data collection efforts by the U.S. government in its surveys, especially in 2020 and 2021, limiting in-person data collection and affecting response rates. It is possible that some measures of economic outcomes and how they vary across demographic groups are affected by these changes in data collection.

In addition to findings about the gender wage gap, this analysis includes information from a Pew Research Center survey about the perceived reasons for the pay gap, as well as the pressures and career goals of U.S. men and women. The survey was conducted among 5,098 adults and includes a subset of questions asked only for 2,048 adults who are employed part time or full time, from Oct. 10-16, 2022. Everyone who took part is a member of the Center’s American Trends Panel (ATP), an online survey panel that is recruited through national, random sampling of residential addresses. This way nearly all U.S. adults have a chance of selection. The survey is weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education and other categories. Read more about the ATP’s methodology .

Here are the questions used in this analysis, along with responses, and its methodology .

The U.S. Census Bureau has also analyzed the gender pay gap, though its analysis looks only at full-time workers (as opposed to full- and part-time workers). In 2021, full-time, year-round working women earned 84% of what their male counterparts earned, on average, according to the Census Bureau’s most recent analysis.

Much of the gender pay gap has been explained by measurable factors such as educational attainment, occupational segregation and work experience. The narrowing of the gap over the long term is attributable in large part to gains women have made in each of these dimensions.

Related: The Enduring Grip of the Gender Pay Gap

Even though women have increased their presence in higher-paying jobs traditionally dominated by men, such as professional and managerial positions, women as a whole continue to be overrepresented in lower-paying occupations relative to their share of the workforce. This may contribute to gender differences in pay.

Other factors that are difficult to measure, including gender discrimination, may also contribute to the ongoing wage discrepancy.

Perceived reasons for the gender wage gap

A bar chart showing that Half of U.S. adults say women being treated differently by employers is a major reason for the gender wage gap

When asked about the factors that may play a role in the gender wage gap, half of U.S. adults point to women being treated differently by employers as a major reason, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted in October 2022. Smaller shares point to women making different choices about how to balance work and family (42%) and working in jobs that pay less (34%).

There are some notable differences between men and women in views of what’s behind the gender wage gap. Women are much more likely than men (61% vs. 37%) to say a major reason for the gap is that employers treat women differently. And while 45% of women say a major factor is that women make different choices about how to balance work and family, men are slightly less likely to hold that view (40% say this).

Parents with children younger than 18 in the household are more likely than those who don’t have young kids at home (48% vs. 40%) to say a major reason for the pay gap is the choices that women make about how to balance family and work. On this question, differences by parental status are evident among both men and women.

Views about reasons for the gender wage gap also differ by party. About two-thirds of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (68%) say a major factor behind wage differences is that employers treat women differently, but far fewer Republicans and Republican leaners (30%) say the same. Conversely, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say women’s choices about how to balance family and work (50% vs. 36%) and their tendency to work in jobs that pay less (39% vs. 30%) are major reasons why women earn less than men.

Democratic and Republican women are more likely than their male counterparts in the same party to say a major reason for the gender wage gap is that employers treat women differently. About three-quarters of Democratic women (76%) say this, compared with 59% of Democratic men. And while 43% of Republican women say unequal treatment by employers is a major reason for the gender wage gap, just 18% of GOP men share that view.

Pressures facing working women and men

Family caregiving responsibilities bring different pressures for working women and men, and research has shown that being a mother can reduce women’s earnings , while fatherhood can increase men’s earnings .

A chart showing that about two-thirds of U.S. working mothers feel a great deal of pressure to focus on responsibilities at home

Employed women and men are about equally likely to say they feel a great deal of pressure to support their family financially and to be successful in their jobs and careers, according to the Center’s October survey. But women, and particularly working mothers, are more likely than men to say they feel a great deal of pressure to focus on responsibilities at home.

About half of employed women (48%) report feeling a great deal of pressure to focus on their responsibilities at home, compared with 35% of employed men. Among working mothers with children younger than 18 in the household, two-thirds (67%) say the same, compared with 45% of working dads.

When it comes to supporting their family financially, similar shares of working moms and dads (57% vs. 62%) report they feel a great deal of pressure, but this is driven mainly by the large share of unmarried working mothers who say they feel a great deal of pressure in this regard (77%). Among those who are married, working dads are far more likely than working moms (60% vs. 43%) to say they feel a great deal of pressure to support their family financially. (There were not enough unmarried working fathers in the sample to analyze separately.)

About four-in-ten working parents say they feel a great deal of pressure to be successful at their job or career. These findings don’t differ by gender.

Gender differences in job roles, aspirations

A bar chart showing that women in the U.S. are more likely than men to say they're not the boss at their job - and don't want to be in the future

Overall, a quarter of employed U.S. adults say they are currently the boss or one of the top managers where they work, according to the Center’s survey. Another 33% say they are not currently the boss but would like to be in the future, while 41% are not and do not aspire to be the boss or one of the top managers.

Men are more likely than women to be a boss or a top manager where they work (28% vs. 21%). This is especially the case among employed fathers, 35% of whom say they are the boss or one of the top managers where they work. (The varying attitudes between fathers and men without children at least partly reflect differences in marital status and educational attainment between the two groups.)

In addition to being less likely than men to say they are currently the boss or a top manager at work, women are also more likely to say they wouldn’t want to be in this type of position in the future. More than four-in-ten employed women (46%) say this, compared with 37% of men. Similar shares of men (35%) and women (31%) say they are not currently the boss but would like to be one day. These patterns are similar among parents.

Note: This is an update of a post originally published on March 22, 2019. Anna Brown and former Pew Research Center writer/editor Amanda Barroso contributed to an earlier version of this analysis. Here are the questions used in this analysis, along with responses, and its methodology .

What is the gender wage gap in your metropolitan area? Find out with our pay gap calculator

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ABOUT PEW RESEARCH CENTER Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world. It conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, media content analysis and other empirical social science research. Pew Research Center does not take policy positions. It is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts .

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Presentation of the ECB Annual Report 2023 to the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament

Introductory remarks by luis de guindos, vice-president of the ecb, at the econ committee of the european parliament.

Brussels, 18 April 2024

Introduction

I am pleased to appear before this Committee to present the ECB’s Annual Report for 2023 [ 1 ] , a year in which the ECB consolidated progress in its fight against inflation. As well as assessing economic developments in the euro area in 2023, our Annual Report gives an account of the Eurosystem’s monetary policy and other activities conducted by the European System of Central Banks (ESCB). In response to European Parliament resolutions, it also includes a box explaining how the ECB’s secondary objective is considered in the conduct of the ECB’s monetary policy and reporting activities.

Today we are also publishing our written feedback statement, which provides responses to the European Parliament’s resolution on our previous Annual Report. [ 2 ]

In my remarks today, I will start by focusing on the economic outlook for the euro area and the monetary policy decisions taken at our recent monetary policy meeting. I will then briefly update you on our current financial stability assessment before going on to discuss the importance of a resilient financial system.

The euro area economy and our monetary policy

As detailed in the Annual Report, euro area growth slowed to 0.4% in 2023 after expanding by 3.4% in 2022. This slowdown was to some extent attributable to the economic repercussions of Russia’s war against Ukraine. The impact of higher interest rates alongside spillover effects from the weak industrial sector to services also weighed on growth.

Euro area headline inflation declined by 6.3 percentage points over the course of 2023 to reach 2.9% at the end of the year. The decline was broad based across all the main components of inflation, reflecting the fading impact of previous large supply shocks, lower energy commodity prices and tight monetary policy.

This year, economic indicators suggest that activity has got off to a weak start and will recover only gradually. Consumer spending is set to remain sluggish in the near term but should strengthen as real disposable income continues to recover. Private investment is expected to show continued weakness in the period ahead before the impact of weak final demand and tight financing conditions starts to fade.

Inflation has fallen further this year and is expected to continue declining in the medium term, but at a slower pace. Measures of underlying inflation have been easing but domestic price pressures remain elevated. Wage growth has remained strong amid robust labour markets but has been moderating recently, while profits are absorbing part of the effects of wage increases on prices.

The ECB reacted forcefully to heightened inflation: it raised its key policy rates by a cumulative 450 basis points between July 2022 and September 2023 and has kept them unchanged since then. We are determined to ensure that inflation returns to our 2% medium-term target in a timely manner. At our most recent monetary policy meeting on 11 April 2024 we considered that the key ECB interest rates are at levels that are making a substantial contribution to the ongoing disinflation process. Our future decisions will ensure that our policy rates will stay sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary. If our updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission were to further increase our confidence that inflation is converging to our target in a sustained manner, it would be appropriate to reduce the current level of monetary policy restriction. In any event, we will continue to follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction, and we are not pre-committing to a particular rate path.

Let me also give you a brief update on the operational framework review we concluded in March, which you have discussed on previous occasions with the ECB President. [ 3 ] The changes will affect how central bank reserves will be provided as excess liquidity gradually declines. The Governing Council will continue to steer the monetary policy stance by adjusting the deposit facility rate (DFR) and short-term interest rates are expected to evolve in the vicinity of the DFR with tolerance for some volatility. Liquidity will be provided through a broad mix of instruments, including existing regular refinancing operations as well as – at a later stage – new structural longer-term credit operations and a structural portfolio of securities. Our existing regular refinancing operations will continue to be conducted through fixed-rate tender procedures with full allotment against broad collateral, and the interest rate on the main refinancing operations will be adjusted later in the year to 15 basis points above the deposit facility rate. The key parameters of the framework will be reviewed in 2026 or earlier if necessary.

The importance of a resilient financial system

Let me now turn to our assessment of the financial sector.

During my last appearance before this Committee, we discussed the importance of maintaining a resilient financial system following the banking sector turmoil in the United States and Switzerland.

Since then, the euro area financial system has remained strong, aided by declining inflation. Confidence in euro area banks has benefited from strong rules and supervision. Banks have maintained sizeable liquidity and capital buffers, and non-performing loan ratios remain close to historically low levels. At the same time, firms and households have shown resilience in the face of rising debt servicing costs resulting from higher interest rates.

However, this positive outlook for financial stability in the euro area should not be taken for granted. It could face significant challenges if growth prospects weakened, inflation stayed above target for a longer period or further geopolitical risks materialised.

We are also closely monitoring developments in euro area real estate markets as tighter financing costs, a move towards hybrid working practices as well as environmental, social and governance requirements are likely to continue to put pressure on this market segment. Although mild signs of asset quality deterioration are becoming visible in commercial real estate (CRE) lending, risks to this asset class are broadly contained given that banks’ CRE exposures, standing at around 5% of total assets, are limited. Our Financial Stability Review, which is due to be published mid-May, will provide more details of our assessment on this.

To support continued financial sector resilience, legislators still have a lot of work to do in the coming years to close the gaps in our banking union. Besides urgent reform of the bank crisis management and deposit insurance framework, we must set up a European framework for liquidity in resolution and, most importantly, a fully-fledged European deposit insurance scheme. We also need a solid institutional and policy framework for the non-bank financial sector and we welcome the European Commission’s forthcoming macroprudential framework review.

Moreover, during the next EU institutional cycle, the level of ambition and commitment devoted to the capital markets union (CMU) agenda must finally match the urgent need to make progress. Completing CMU is key to strengthening resilience, enhancing EU competitiveness, growing our economy and achieving the EU’s policy objectives, such as funding the green and digital transitions. In this spirit, the ECB Governing Council recently published a statement on advancing CMU. [ 4 ]

As this parliamentary term comes to an end and a new one begins in a few months’ time, let me reiterate that the ECB is counting on this Parliament to support these efforts with ambition and commitment.

Thank you for your attention. I now stand ready to answer your questions.

ECB Annual Report 2023 .

Feedback on the input provided by the European Parliament as part of its resolution on the ECB Annual Report 2022 . This feedback statement provides responses to the issues raised and requests made by the European Parliament in its resolution on the previous year’s ECB Annual Report. The statement, which is structured by topic, serves to better explain the ECB’s policies and promote dialogue with the European Parliament and the public regarding the important issues highlighted by the Members of the European Parliament. The ECB has been publishing such feedback statements since 2016 following a suggestion by the European Parliament.

ECB (2024), ECB announces changes to the operational framework for implementing monetary policy , press release, 13 March.

ECB (2024), Statement by the ECB Governing Council on advancing the Capital Markets Union , press release, 7 March 2024.

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AI Index Report

Welcome to the seventh edition of the AI Index report. The 2024 Index is our most comprehensive to date and arrives at an important moment when AI’s influence on society has never been more pronounced. This year, we have broadened our scope to more extensively cover essential trends such as technical advancements in AI, public perceptions of the technology, and the geopolitical dynamics surrounding its development. Featuring more original data than ever before, this edition introduces new estimates on AI training costs, detailed analyses of the responsible AI landscape, and an entirely new chapter dedicated to AI’s impact on science and medicine.

Read the 2024 AI Index Report

The AI Index report tracks, collates, distills, and visualizes data related to artificial intelligence (AI). Our mission is to provide unbiased, rigorously vetted, broadly sourced data in order for policymakers, researchers, executives, journalists, and the general public to develop a more thorough and nuanced understanding of the complex field of AI.

The AI Index is recognized globally as one of the most credible and authoritative sources for data and insights on artificial intelligence. Previous editions have been cited in major newspapers, including the The New York Times, Bloomberg, and The Guardian, have amassed hundreds of academic citations, and been referenced by high-level policymakers in the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union, among other places. This year’s edition surpasses all previous ones in size, scale, and scope, reflecting the growing significance that AI is coming to hold in all of our lives.

Steering Committee Co-Directors

Ray Perrault

Steering committee members.

Erik Brynjolfsson

John Etchemendy

Katrina Ligett

Terah Lyons

James Manyika

Juan Carlos Niebles

Vanessa Parli

Yoav Shoham

Russell Wald

Staff members.

Loredana Fattorini

Nestor Maslej

Letter from the co-directors.

A decade ago, the best AI systems in the world were unable to classify objects in images at a human level. AI struggled with language comprehension and could not solve math problems. Today, AI systems routinely exceed human performance on standard benchmarks.

Progress accelerated in 2023. New state-of-the-art systems like GPT-4, Gemini, and Claude 3 are impressively multimodal: They can generate fluent text in dozens of languages, process audio, and even explain memes. As AI has improved, it has increasingly forced its way into our lives. Companies are racing to build AI-based products, and AI is increasingly being used by the general public. But current AI technology still has significant problems. It cannot reliably deal with facts, perform complex reasoning, or explain its conclusions.

AI faces two interrelated futures. First, technology continues to improve and is increasingly used, having major consequences for productivity and employment. It can be put to both good and bad uses. In the second future, the adoption of AI is constrained by the limitations of the technology. Regardless of which future unfolds, governments are increasingly concerned. They are stepping in to encourage the upside, such as funding university R&D and incentivizing private investment. Governments are also aiming to manage the potential downsides, such as impacts on employment, privacy concerns, misinformation, and intellectual property rights.

As AI rapidly evolves, the AI Index aims to help the AI community, policymakers, business leaders, journalists, and the general public navigate this complex landscape. It provides ongoing, objective snapshots tracking several key areas: technical progress in AI capabilities, the community and investments driving AI development and deployment, public opinion on current and potential future impacts, and policy measures taken to stimulate AI innovation while managing its risks and challenges. By comprehensively monitoring the AI ecosystem, the Index serves as an important resource for understanding this transformative technological force.

On the technical front, this year’s AI Index reports that the number of new large language models released worldwide in 2023 doubled over the previous year. Two-thirds were open-source, but the highest-performing models came from industry players with closed systems. Gemini Ultra became the first LLM to reach human-level performance on the Massive Multitask Language Understanding (MMLU) benchmark; performance on the benchmark has improved by 15 percentage points since last year. Additionally, GPT-4 achieved an impressive 0.97 mean win rate score on the comprehensive Holistic Evaluation of Language Models (HELM) benchmark, which includes MMLU among other evaluations.

Although global private investment in AI decreased for the second consecutive year, investment in generative AI skyrocketed. More Fortune 500 earnings calls mentioned AI than ever before, and new studies show that AI tangibly boosts worker productivity. On the policymaking front, global mentions of AI in legislative proceedings have never been higher. U.S. regulators passed more AI-related regulations in 2023 than ever before. Still, many expressed concerns about AI’s ability to generate deepfakes and impact elections. The public became more aware of AI, and studies suggest that they responded with nervousness.

Ray Perrault Co-director, AI Index

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