drought definition essay

Understanding Droughts

Drought is an extended period of unusually dry weather when there is not enough rain.

Biology, Ecology, Earth Science, Meteorology, Geography, Human Geography, Physical Geography, Social Studies, U.S. History, World History, Geology

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Drought  is an extended period of unusually dry  weather  when there is not enough rain. The lack of  precipitation  can cause a variety of problems for local communities, including damage to  crops and a shortage of drinking water. These effects can lead to devastating  economic  and social disasters, such as  famine ,  forced migration  away from drought -stricken areas, and  conflict  over remaining  resources .

Because the full effects of a drought can develop slowly over time, impacts can be underestimated. However, drought can have  drastic  and long-term effects on  vegetation , animals, and people. Since 1900, more than 11 million people have died and more than 2 billion people have been affected by drought . Drought is also one of the costliest weather -related disasters. Since 2014 California has lost at least 2 billion-dollars a year, due to drought .

Defining Drought

Drought is a complicated  phenomenon , and can be hard to define. One difficulty is that drought means different things in different regions. A drought is defined depending on the average amount of precipitation that an area is accustomed to receiving.

For example, in Atlanta, Georgia, the average rainfall is about 127 centimeters (50 inches) a year. If  significantly less rain falls, there may be water shortages and a drought may be declared. However, some arid regions, such as the  deserts of the American Southwest, may receive less than about 25 centimeters (10 inches) of rainfall in a non- drought year. A drought in Atlanta could be a very wet period in Phoenix, Arizona!

Determining the start of a drought can be tricky. Unlike many  natural hazards that bring about sudden and dramatic results—such as  earthquakes ,  tornadoes , and  hurricanes —the onset of a drought can be gradual and subtle. It can take weeks, months, or even years for the full effects of long-term  inadequate  rainfall to become apparent.

The end of a drought can also be difficult to determine. While a single rain storm will provide short-term relief from a drought , it might take weeks or months before levels of precipitation return to normal. The start and end of a drought are often only clear in hindsight .

Causes of Drought

Most droughts occur when regular weather patterns are interrupted, causing  disruption to the  water cycle . Changes in  atmospheric circulation  patterns can cause storm tracks to be  stalled for months or years. This disruption can dramatically impact amounts of precipitation that a region normally receives. Changes in wind patterns can also be disruptive to how moisture is absorbed in various regions.

Scientists have found a link between certain  climate  patterns and drought . El Niño is a weather event where the surface water in the Pacific Ocean along the central South American coast rises in temperature. These warmer waters alter storm patterns and are associated with droughts in Indonesia, Australia, and northeastern South America. El Nino events keep climate scientists guessing, by occurring every two to seven years.

La Niña is the counterpart to El Niño , when the surface water in the Pacific Ocean along the coast of South America decreases in temperature. The cooler waters affect storm patterns by contributing to drier-than-normal conditions in parts of North and South America. El Niño and La Niña both usually last about a year. The effects of La Niña on weather patterns are often more  complex  than El Niño . Two of the most devastating droughts in the history of the United States—the 1930s  Dust Bowl  and the 1988 drought in the Midwest—are associated with the effects of La Niña.

There is still a lot of debate about the connection between drought and  global warming , the current period of  climate change . A 2013 NASA study predicts warmer worldwide temperatures will mean increased rainfall in some parts of the world and decreased rainfall in others, leading to both more flooding and more droughts worldwide. Other scientists question the prediction that there will be more droughts and believe global warming will create a wetter climate around the world.

Impacts of Drought

Trees and other plants have adapted to withstand the effects of drought through various survival methods. Some plants (such as grasses) will slow their growth or turn brown to conserve water. Trees can drop their leaves earlier in the season to prevent losing water through the leaf surface. However, if drought conditions persist, much vegetation will die.

Certain plants have adapted so they can withstand long periods without water. Yuccas, for instance, have deep  root systems that can seek out water with incredible efficiency. Cacti have spiny, hairy spines, spikes, or leaves that limit how much water they lose to  evaporation . Mosses can withstand complete  dehydration . Juniper trees can self- prune  by steering water only to ward the branches required for survival. Other plants only grow when there is enough water to support them. In periods of drought , their seeds can survive under the  soil for years until conditions are favorable again.

However, many organisms cannot adapt to drought conditions, and the environmental effects of extended, unusual periods of low precipitation can be  severe . Negative impacts include damage to  habitats , loss of  biodiversity , soil   erosion , and an increased risk from  wildfires . During the U.S. drought of 1988, rainfall in many states was 50 to 85 percent below normal. Summer thunderstorms produced  lightning  without rain and  ignited fires in dry trees. In Yellowstone National Park 36 percent of the park was destroyed by fire.

Drought can also create significant economic and social problems. The lack of rain can result in crop loss, a decrease in land prices, and  unemployment  due to declines in production. As water levels in rivers and lakes fall, water-supply problems can develop. These can bring about other social problems. Many of these problems are health-related, such as lack of water, poor  nutrition , and famine . Other problems include conflicts over water usage and food, and forced migration away from drought -stricken areas.

While drought is a naturally occurring part of the weather cycle and cannot be prevented, human activity can influence the effects that drought has on a region. Many modern agricultural practices may make land more  vulnerable to drought . While new  irrigation  techniques have increased the amount of land that can be used for farming, they have also increased  farmers ’ dependence on water.

Traditional agricultural techniques allow land to “rest” by rotating crops each season and alternating areas where  livestock graze . Now, with many areas in the world struggling with overpopulation and a shortage of farmland, there is often not enough  arable  land to support  sustainable practices. Over-farming and  overgrazing  can lead to soil being  compacted and unable to hold water. As the soil becomes drier, it is vulnerable to erosion . This process can lead to  fertile  land becoming desert -like, a process known as  desertification . The desertification of the  Sahel  in North Africa is partly blamed on a prolonged drought whose effects were intensified by farming practices that result in overgrazing .

Increased drought conditions in Kenya have been attributed to  deforestation and other human activities. Trees help bring precipitation into the ground and prevent soil erosion . But in 2009, it was reported that one-quarter of a protected forest reserve had been cleared for farming and  logging , leading to drought conditions affecting 10 million people around the country.

Historical Droughts

Scientists often study historical droughts to put modern-day droughts in perspective. Since our  data  from  thermometers and  rain gauges only goes back about 100 to 150 years, scientists must research  paleoclimatology , the study of the atmosphere of prehistoric Earth. Scientists gather paleoclimatic data from  tree rings ,  sediments found in lakes and oceans,  ice cores , and archaeological  features and  artifacts . This allows scientists to extend their understanding of weather patterns for millions of years in the past.

Analyzing paleoclimatic data shows that severe and extended droughts are an  inevitable  part of natural climate cycles. North America has experienced a number of long-lasting droughts with significant effects. It is thought that droughts brought about the decline of the  Ancestral Puebloans  in the Southwest during the 13th century, and the central and Lower  Mississippian societies in the 14th to 16th centuries.

In South America, massive migration out of the once-fertile Atacama Desert 9,500 years ago can be explained by the onset of extreme drought.

In Africa, the Sahel region experienced a dry period from 1400 to 1750 that radically altered the  landscape . The water level in Lake Bosumtwi, Ghana, for instance, fell so low that an entire forest grew on the lake’s edges. Today, visitors can still see the tops of trees growing out of the lake—where the water is now more than 15 meters (50 feet) deep.

What scientists have learned by looking at Earth’s drought history is that periods of severe drought are a regular part of nature’s cycle. As devastating as droughts in the last century have been, they are considered relatively minor compared to the severity of earlier droughts that have lasted more than a century.

Major Droughts in the Past Century

The Dust Bowl of the 1930s is probably the most well-known drought experienced by the U.S. By 1934, 80 percent of the U.S. was struggling with moderate-to- severe drought conditions. The drought lasted nearly a decade and had devastating effects on crop production in the  Great Plains . The combination of lack of rain, high temperatures, and strong winds affected at least 50 million acres of land. Massive clouds of dust and sand formed as unusually strong winds lifted the dry soil into the air. These clouds could block out the sun for days, giving the period the name “ dust bowl .” In 1934, one dust cloud infamously traveled 2,414 kilometers (1,500 miles), from the Great Plains to the eastern U.S.

Mass migration was an indirect effect of the Dust Bowl . Farmers and their families were forced to migrate to other areas in search of work, and by 1940, 2.5 million people had fled the Great Plains . Of those, 200,000 moved to California. The influx of migrants into existing economies already strained by the Great Depression led to a rise in conflict , unemployment , and  poverty .

In the 1950s, severe drought returned to the Great Plains and southwestern United States, affecting half of the continental U.S. Low rainfall and high temperatures caused the production of crops in some areas to drop nearly 50 percent. Hay became too expensive for ranchers, and they had to feed their cattle prickly pear cactus and molasses to keep them alive. By the end of the five-year drought in 1957, 244 of Texas’ 254 counties had been declared  federal   drought disaster areas .

In the late 1980s, the U.S. experienced one of the costliest drought in its history. The three-year spell of high temperatures and low rainfall ruined roughly $15 billion of crops in the  Corn Belt . The total of all the losses in energy, water,  ecosystems , and  agriculture  is estimated at $39 billion. Federal assistance programs were able to help many farmers , but a longer-lasting drought would make it more difficult for the government to provide nationwide aid.

Droughts continue to affect the U.S. Texas has been suffering from drought since 2010, with 2011 ranking as the driest year in the state’s history. A September 2012  National Geographic  magazine article called Texas “The New Dust Bowl.” By 2013, 99 percent of the state was dealing with drought.

Australia is also a frequent victim of drought . The last decade has been especially severe , earning it the name The Big Dry or The Millennium Drought . Much of the country was placed under water restrictions, wildfires spread in the dry weather , and the water level in some  dams fell to 25 percent. In 2007, 65 percent of viable land in Australia was declared to be in a drought . The drought was officially declared over in April 2012.

Droughts that occur in the  developing world  can cause even greater devastation. The Sahel region in Africa, which includes eight countries, endured a series of droughts in the 1970s and 1980s where annual rainfall dropped by about 40 percent. In the early 1970s, more than 100,000 people died and millions of people were forced to migrate. Conditions continue to be critical in the area due to drought , overpopulation, failing crops , and high food prices. Drought emergencies for the region have been declared four times since 2000.

The  Horn of Africa , which includes the countries of Ethiopia, Somalia, Eritrea, and Djibouti, is particularly vulnerable to droughts . Because almost 80 percent of the population is rural and depends on agriculture for food and income, famine often accompanies drought .

Struggles for the region’s limited, remaining resources can lead to conflict and war. In 1984 and 1985, the Horn of Africa suffered one of the worst droughts of the 20th century. The U.N. estimates that in Ethiopia alone, 1 million people died, 1.5 million livestock died, and 8.7 million people were affected by the drought—including being hospitalized, forced to migrate, or forced to change professions. In Sudan, 1 million people died, at least 7 million livestock died, and 7.8 million people were affected.

The cycle of drought-famine-conflict has persisted in the region, with drought conditions returning every few years since 2000. In 2006, drought affected 11 million people across the Horn of Africa, and the resulting crisis killed between 50,000 and 100,000 people and affected more than 13 million.

Forecasting and Measuring Drought

Even though scientists are unable to predict how long a drought will last or how severe it will be, early warning systems and  monitoring tools can  minimize  some of drought ’s damaging impacts. There are a number of tools used to monitor drought across the U.S. Due to the limitations of each system, data from different sources are often compiled to create a more comprehensive  forecast .

The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), developed in 1965 by the  National Weather Service , is the most commonly used drought monitor . It is a complex measurement system and an effective way to forecast long-term drought . Its limitations are that it does not provide early warnings for drought and is not as accurate for use in mountainous areas because it does not account for snow (only rain) as precipitation . The PDSI is often used by the U.S. Department of Agriculture to determine when to begin providing drought relief.

Information from the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is often used to supplement the PDSI data . The SPI, developed in 1993, is less complex than the PDSI and only measures precipitation —not evaporation or water  runoff . Many scientists prefer using the SPI because the time period being analyzed can easily be  customized . The SPI can also identify droughts many months earlier than the PDSI. The National Drought Mitigation Center uses the SPI to monitor drought conditions around the U.S.

The U.S. Drought Monitor , started in 1999, is a joint effort between three U.S. government agencies—the Department of Agriculture , the Department of Commerce, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The Monitor   synthesizes data from  academic  and federal scientists into a weekly map indicating levels of dryness around the country. It is designed to be a blend of science and art that can be used as a general summary of drought conditions around the country. It is not meant to be used as a drought predictor or for detailed information about specific areas.

The Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) monitors satellite data of crops and rainfall across Africa and some parts of Central America, the Middle East , and Central Asia. Analysis of the data allows for early intervention to try to prevent drought -induced famine .

Preparing for Drought

People and governments need to adopt new practices and policies to prepare as much as possible for inevitable future droughts . Emergency spending once a crisis has begun is less effective than money spent in preparation. The  Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)  estimates that every $1 spent in planning for a natural hazard will save $4 in the long term.

Many areas are extremely vulnerable to drought as people continue to be dependent on a steady supply of water. The U.S. Department of Agriculture recommends a series of  conservation  practices to help farmers prepare for drought . Some preventative measures include in stalling an  efficient   irrigation system that reduces the amount of water lost to evaporation , storing water in ditches along fields, regularly monitoring soil moisture, planting crops that are more drought -resistant, and rotating crops to allow water in the soil to increase.

In  urban areas , many cities are promoting water conservation by addressing water usage habits. Some enforce water restrictions, such as limiting days when lawns and plants can be watered, and offering free high-efficiency toilets and kitchen faucets.

Some drought-ravaged cities are taking even more extreme measures to prepare for future droughts. In Australia, the city of Perth is planning for a massive wastewater -recycling program that will eventually provide up to a quarter of the city’s water demands by 2060. Perth has been dealing with a decline in rainfall since the mid 1970s. The city, which is on the edge of a huge desert, is also struggling with its history of over-consumption of water. Water-hungry traditions such as planting large, lush lawns and parks will need to be addressed through conservation measures.

Drought in the USA In August 2012, drought conditions extended over 70 percent of the United States. Counties in 33 states were designated “disaster counties” by the government. In the beginning of 2013, drought still affected more than 60 percent of the country.

Dust Bowl John Steinbeck’s 1939 novel The Grapes of Wrath describes the Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s: “Every moving thing lifted the dust into the air: a walking man lifted a thin layer as high as his waist, and a wagon lifted the dust as high as the fence tops, and an automobile boiled a cloud behind it. The dust was long in setting back again.”

Yunnan Drought

The ongoing drought in Yunnan Province, China, has forced some families to transport water from more than 10 kilometers (6 miles) away.

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Droughts 101

Droughts can cause a variety of problems to local communities, including damage to ecosystems, crops, and a shortage of drinking water.

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What Is a Drought?

Droughts occur in nearly all types of climate. Of all the weather-related phenomena that can cause severe economic impacts in the United States, droughts come in second only to hurricanes , according to the National Climatic Data Center . But unlike hurricanes, which are easily identified and straightforward to classify in terms of wind speeds, droughts are much tougher to define.

Definition of drought

Most people think of a drought as a period of unusually dry weather that persists long enough to cause problems such as crop damage and water supply shortages . But because dry conditions develop for different reasons, there is more than one definition of drought.

"Drought is caused by not only lack of precipitation and high temperatures but by overuse and overpopulation," said David Miskus, a drought expert and meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center.

In the 1980s, two researchers uncovered more than 150 published definitions of drought which they published in the journal Water International . In an effort to bring some order to measuring drought, the scientists grouped the definitions into four basic categories: meteorological, hydrological, agricultural and socioeconomic. The first three descriptions track drought as a physical phenomenon. The last category deals with drought as a supply-and-demand problem, through the impacts of water shortfalls.

These definitions usually specify the beginning, end and degree of severity of drought by comparing the precipitation over a certain time period to a historical average. Scientists include both rain and snow in precipitation measurements , because some U.S. regions, such as the mountainous West,  rely on winter snow  for much of their yearly water.

Here are descriptions of the four main categories of drought:

Meteorological drought  is specific to different regions, depending on the amount of yearly precipitation that's average for that area. For example, the southwest portion of the United States averages less than 3 inches (7.6 centimeters) of precipitation per year, while the Northwest gets more than 150 inches (381 cm) per year, according to the U.S. Department of Interior . A decrease in precipitation compared to the historical average for that area would qualify as a meteorological drought.  

Agricultural drought  accounts for the water needs of crops during different growing stages. For instance, not enough moisture at planting time may hinder germination, leading to low plant populations and a reduction in yield.

Hydrological drought  refers to persistently low water volumes in streams, rivers and reservoirs. Human activities, such as drawdown of reservoirs , can worsen hydrological droughts. Hydrological drought is often linked with meteorological droughts.

Socioeconomic drought  occurs when the demand for water exceeds the supply. Examples of this kind of drought include too much irrigation or when low river flow forces hydroelectric power plant operators to reduce energy production. 

Tracking drought

In the United States, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI, weekly index from CPC shown), devised in 1965, was the first comprehensive drought indicator. It is considered most effective for unirrigated cropland. The PDSI combines temperature, precipitation, evaporation, transpiration, soil runoff and soil recharge data for a given region to produce a single negative number that indicates drought conditions.

This index serves as an estimate of soil moisture deficiency and roughly correlates with drought severity. The PDSI is the most commonly used index for drought monitoring and research. It has been widely used in tree-ring-based reconstructions of past droughts in North America and other regions. 

In 1999, the  U.S. Drought Monitor  replaced the PDSI as the nation's drought indicator.

"One index can't cover the whole United States," Miskus said. "The Drought Monitor uses a lot of different tools to assess drought."

The nationwide Drought Monitor categorizes drought into five levels of severity:

• abnormally dry (category D0, corresponding to a PDSI between -1.0 and 1.9)
• moderate drought (D1, PDSI between -2.0 and -2.9)
• severe drought (D2, PDSI between -3.0 and -3.9)
• extreme drought (D3, PDSI between -4.0 and -4.9)
• exceptional drought (D4, PDSI between -5.0 and -5.9)

History of U.S. droughts

In the United States, the most devastating drought on record occurred in the 1930s during the so-called "Dust Bowl" years . According to the  National Climatic Data Center , the drought affected almost the entire Plains region and covered more than 60 percent of the country at its peak in July 1934. It caused the migration of millions of people from the Plains to other parts of the country, especially the West Coast. 

Researchers think a  high-pressure ridge over the West Coast  deflected moisture-bringing storms in 1934, causing the severe Dust Bowl droughts. This ridging pattern has been in place during some of the West's worst droughts, such as the 1976 and 2013 California droughts — two of the worst dry spells in the state's history. 

Persistent high pressure in the atmosphere curbs cloud formation and leads to lower relative humidity and less precipitation. In the West, prolonged droughts occur when large-scale high-pressure patterns persist for months or more, blocking storms carrying winter rains and snow.

More recent U.S. droughts, such as those of the 1950s, 1988 and 2000, have also had serious economic and societal impacts. Between 1980 and 2014, 16 drought events cost a combined $210 billion in the United States, and thousands of people died due to the effects of drought, according to NOAA .

In June 2012, 55.8 percent of the land in the lower 48 U.S. states was in drought, the highest figure in the history of the U.S. Drought Monitor. As of July 2018, about 38 percent of the contiguous U.S. was categorized as in moderate to extreme drought, according to NOAA .

A dry future?

Drought can be devastating to an area’s economy and dangerous for human health . According to NOAA, droughts cost the United States around $9 billion a year. As the human population increases in arid regions as well as wet ones, so will the demand for water, and — with water supplies dropping at a faster rate — so will the likelihood of drought. In fact, population booms can trigger droughts almost by themselves.

Aside from the human population explosion, global warming also fuels the  increased frequency and severity of droughts  in many parts of the globe, now and in future. Climate change is a major factor in the western United States’ prolonged and more common droughts, according to NOAA.

According to projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, droughts will especially increase in subtropical areas, such as the U.S. southwest, Australia and parts of Africa and Europe, as Earth's warming causes more evaporation and shifts weather patterns, pushing the paths of storms that bring thirst-quenching rains farther north. The Union of Concerned Scientists noted that climate change can also lead to more precipitation occurring as rain instead of snow. This can lead to flooding and quick runoff instead of slow absorption that is needed in dry areas.

Additional resources

• See the  National Drought Summary  for the current day.
• Get more drought information at the National Weather Service's  Climate Prediction Center .
• Find out whether drought is affecting your area  at the U.S. Drought Portal.
• UNICEF’s list of counties currently affected by drought
• Reducing Poverty, Protecting Livelihoods and Building Assets in a Changing Climate Social Implications of Climate Change in Latin America and the Caribbean

This article was updated on Sept. 28, 2018, by Live Science Contributor Alina Bradford.

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Natalie Wolchover was a staff writer for Live Science from 2010 to 2012 and is currently a senior physics writer and editor for Quanta Magazine. She holds a bachelor's degree in physics from Tufts University and has studied physics at the University of California, Berkeley. Along with the staff of Quanta, Wolchover won the 2022 Pulitzer Prize for explanatory writing for her work on the building of the James Webb Space Telescope. Her work has also appeared in the The Best American Science and Nature Writing and The Best Writing on Mathematics, Nature, The New Yorker and Popular Science. She was the 2016 winner of the  Evert Clark/Seth Payne Award, an annual prize for young science journalists, as well as the winner of the 2017 Science Communication Award for the American Institute of Physics. 

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National Integrated Drought Information System

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Please note: Due to a system outage with NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information, certain maps and statistics on Drought.gov may be experiencing issues. We apologize for any inconvenience and are working to resolve these issues quickly

Drought Basics

Drought is generally defined as “a deficiency of precipitation over an extended period of time (usually a season or more), resulting in a water shortage.” 

As the different definitions at right illustrate, though, drought can be difficult to define—so difficult, in fact, that in the early 1980s researchers found more than 150 published definitions of drought, reflecting differences in regions, needs, and approaches. 

Some drought definitions are conceptual—an idea or concept—which can be important in establishing drought policy. Others are operational, describing how drought functions or operates in ways that can be measured ( NDMC ).

To learn about how these definitions can be used in drought communication, visit our Communicating About Drought page .

Merriam-Webster Dictionary: "A period of dryness especially when prolonged."

American Meteorological Society: “A period of abnormally dry weather sufficiently long enough to cause a serious hydrological imbalance.”

NOAA’s National Weather Service: “A deficiency of moisture that results in adverse impacts on people, animals, or vegetation over a sizeable area.”

Types of Drought

To help with drought classification and monitoring, scientists have defined several types of drought:

Meteorological Drought

When dry weather patterns dominate an area.

Hydrological Drought

When low water supply becomes evident in the water system.

Agricultural Drought

When crops become affected by drought.

Socioeconomic Drought

When the supply and demand of various commodities is affected by drought.

Ecological Drought

When natural ecosystems are affected by drought.

Drought is the absence of precipitation, rather than the presence of an event such as a hurricane, tornado, or fire. It's often described as a “creeping phenomenon” because it slowly impacts many sectors of the economy and operates on many different timescales.

Just as drought is difficult to define, it’s also difficult to predict and monitor—particularly when marking the beginning and end of a period of drought.

Drought’s effects also vary from region to region. Due to climatic differences, what might be considered a drought in one part of the country may not be a drought somewhere else.

Examples of Drought Impacts

Drought can lead to a wide range of environmental, social, and economic impacts. Below are just a few examples of the far-reaching consequences of drought.

Agriculture

Drought can reduce the water availability and quality necessary for productive farms, ranches, and grazing lands. It can also contribute to insect outbreaks, increases in wildfire, and altered rates of carbon, nutrient, and water cycling—impacting agricultural production and critical ecosystem services.

Transportation

Drought impacts port and waterway transportation and supply chains, resulting in increased transportation costs. Higher temperatures that coexist with drought can impact roads, airport runways, and rail lines.

Drought can be a contributing factor to wildfire. Dry, hot, and windy weather combined with dried out (and more flammable) vegetation can increase the probability of large-scale wildfires.

Public Health

Drought can cause significant human health outcomes, including decreased water quantity and quality, increased incidence of illness and disease (e.g., Valley Fever), adverse mental health outcomes as livelihoods are challenged, and overall, increased mortality rates.

Ecosystems 

Drought can alter or degrade critical functions of healthy ecosystems, including reduced plant growth, reduction or extinction of local species, and landscape-level transitions (e.g., a forest being replaced by a grassland).

Water Quality

During drought, decreased water levels, warmer temperatures, and soil runoff can lead to algal growth, lower dissolved oxygen levels, and increased turbidity, posing health risks for human and aquatic life.

Related Content

Research & learn | short- vs. long-term drought.

Short- and long-term droughts differ in the timescales over which they occur, their impacts, and their monitoring.

Research & Learn | Ecological Drought

Healthy ecological systems support every form of life, and drought can alter or degrade critical ecosystem functions and services. 

Research & Learn | Flash Drought

Flash droughts can cause extensive damage to agriculture—and economies—if they are not predicted and discovered early.

Research & Learn | Snow Drought

The impacts of snow drought are widespread, affecting ecosystems, reservoir levels and operations, water resource management, tourism, and winter recreation.

Research & Learn | Historical Drought

The “Dust Bowl” drought of the 1930s is still the most significant meteorological and agricultural drought in the United States’ historical record.

Research & Learn | Monitoring Drought

Drought monitoring at the national, regional, and local levels is an integral part of drought early warning, planning, and mitigation.

Looking for State or Local Maps?

The Current Conditions page features national conditions. You can also explore maps of current and future conditions by state , watershed , county , or city .

Drought Basics

PBS, WGBH Educational Foundation

This PBS Learning Media activity addresses drought basics, including its causes and impacts and ways to assess it, by using media from NOAA and NASA. It defines the types of drought, the impacts, monitoring, and responses to drought. Use this resource to stimulate thinking and questions on the complexity of drought and to identify some variables used in defining drought.

Notes from our reviewers

The CLEAN collection is hand-picked and rigorously reviewed for scientific accuracy and classroom effectiveness. Read what our review team had to say about this resource below or learn more about how CLEAN reviews teaching materials .

• Teaching Tips Material includes Teaching Tips and prepared Discussion Questions. Suggested Teaching Tips are sparse, but the material would be a good supplement for a prepared drought lesson. Slideshow has 15 slides with roughly two paragraphs of text per slide. If students are interested in more information about a climate science topic they can explore other resources directly from the homepage.
• About the Science In this slideshow students learn about five types of drought, their causes, and impacts on the continental USA. Students learn the difference between drought, aridity, and water shortage through text, real-life examples, and figures. Slides include graphs and animations from cited sources that include NASA, USDA, NOAA, and USDMâhowever there is not a link to the original material. Comments from expert scientist: This is a great holistic overview of drought types, causes and impacts. The resource introduces ENSO and includes several scientific plots/visualizations from scientific models but I noticed a few of the images did not include a source.
• About the Pedagogy This resource could be used as a whole group presentation/lecture or assigned as an independent study. The format is good for visual learners, due to its balance of text and images. However, students cannot interact directly with the graphs/figures/maps on each slide beyond clicking to step through the slides and hit play on the embedded videos. This presentation is more powerful when put with other resources in the multimedia series and provides good background for student investigations. Great introduction to drought with natural drivers and cascading efforts. The activity does not list any prerequisite knowledge or skill. Correlations to standards indicated on the website are elaborate and may not accurately reflect standards addressed in the activity.
• Technical Details/Ease of Use Slideshow is easy to follow and use while being free of distractions. Integrated share to Google Classrooms button. Also can be assigned through Remind, social media platforms, or with the PBS LearningMedia Lesson Builder Tool.

What is drought? Causes, impact & countries most affected

East Africa is facing its worst drought in 40 years, with over 1.4 million people displaced by drought in Somalia alone. Learn more about drought, what causes it, and how we can support those most impacted.

Around the world, droughts are becoming increasingly common due to rising global temperatures — and have serious impacts, leading to crop failures, famine and malnutrition. 

East Africa , for example, is facing its worst drought in years, affecting 40 million people. Many are facing near-famine and malnutrition because of the drought’s impact on food supplies. 

Learn more about drought, what causes it, and what the IRC is doing to help in East Africa. 

Support our work

What is drought .

Drought is caused by a lack of rainfall, causing serious water shortages. It can be fatal.  

More specifically, drought is defined by a period of unusually dry weather caused by low rainfall and high temperatures. It is also defined in terms of the impact on agriculture when crops fail due to lack of moisture in soil, leading to food shortages and serious human impacts such as famine in severe cases. 

Unlike other extreme weather events that are more sudden, like earthquakes or hurricanes, droughts happen gradually. But they can be just as deadly as other weather hazards—if not more so. Drought has affected more people in the last 40 years than any other natural disaster.  

The severity of drought worsens over time. When it arrives, drought can last for weeks, months, or years—sometimes, the effects last decades. 

What causes drought?  

Droughts can be triggered by natural causes such as weather patterns. But increasingly they are caused by human activity. 

Human causes of drought 

Climate change : Global warming makes extreme weather more likely. It can make places drier by increasing evaporation. When land becomes so dry, an impermeable crust forms, so when it does rain, water runs off the surface, meaning sometimes flash flooding occurs. 

Deforestation : Plants and trees capture and release water into the atmosphere, which creates clouds and then rain. Scientists have observed a relationship between deforestation and drought. 

Agriculture : Intensive farming contributes to deforestation in the first instance but can also affect the absorbency of the soil, meaning it dries out much more quickly. 

High water demand : There are several reasons water demand might outweigh the supply, including intensive agriculture and population spikes. Also, high demand upstream in rivers (for dams or irrigation) can cause drought in lower, downstream areas. 

Other natural causes of drought 

Changes in ocean temperatures : El Niño and La Niña are climate patterns that can cause drought in some parts of the world. El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which can lead to drought in the southwestern United States and southern Africa. La Niña is characterized by cooler-than-average ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which can lead to drought in Australia and Indonesia. 

The jet stream : The jet stream is a band of strong winds that flows high in the atmosphere. Changes in the jet stream can cause drought in some areas by bringing in dry air from other parts of the world. 

How are people impacted by drought? 

Risk of famine .

Drought causes food insecurity when crops fail. When a substantial part of the population can no longer access food this is known as famine and results in widespread acute malnutrition, disease and death across the affected region. 

East Africa is currently experiencing widespread food shortages and near-famine, with millions of children under 5 suffering from severe acute malnutrition. 

Malnutrition 

A lack of nutritious food caused by food shortages leads to acute malnutrition. Children suffering from malnutrition are a high risk category. Deprived of essential vitamins and minerals required for their proper growth, they are prone to disease, severe developmental delays and even death.   

Effective treatment for children suffering from malnutrition exists, but often does not reach those most in need. The IRC has developed a simplified process for treating malnutrition in order to reach more children with lower costs. 

Increase in diseases 

Drought affects vital access to clean drinking water. This can lead to people drinking contaminated water, which brings about outbreaks of diseases like cholera and typhoid. These diseases can also spread in places with poor sanitation, another side-effect of having no clean water. 

It can cause wildfires 

Dry conditions can cause wildfires that burn remaining vegetation and endanger homes. Fires can also impact air quality and exacerbate chronic lung conditions. 

People are displaced 

People must travel further to find clean water. This usually falls to women and children, who must sacrifice other work and school to carry out an incredibly physical task. 

Without access to clean water or food, many must permanently leave their homes in order to survive. The World Health Organization states , “Water scarcity impacts 40% of the world’s population, and as many as 700 million people are at risk of being displaced as a result of drought by 2030.” 

Related : Meet the people displaced by drought in Somalia  

It can feed into conflict 

Research has also found that drought exacerbates existing conflicts. People migrating en masse from areas of drought and famine can result in increased political tensions and conflict due to increased competition for resources. There is evidence that drought contributed to the conflict in Syria , for example. 

Flash flooding 

Flooding can also be a risk in the same geographical areas that suffer from drought. 

Rain after a drought sounds like it ought to be a good thing, but after a prolonged period of dryness, sudden heavy rainfall can lead to hazardous flash flooding like that seen in Pakistan.  

This is because droughts leave the ground hard and baked, with little to no plant cover and low soil quality, which prevents rain from saturating the ground. Instead, when waterfalls in a large quantity and at speed—like in a thunderstorm—it runs over the parched ground. 

Which countries are in a drought? 

Droughts can occur all around the world. However, the effects of drought vary by region.  

Droughts bring the most risk to areas with high-pressure weather systems that are already prone to desertification. Developing countries are also more vulnerable to the socio-economic effects of drought due to a large percentage of their population being employed in the agriculture industry.  

East Africa 

In Africa droughts pose a high risk and the following countries in East Africa are severely affected by drought: 

Somalia where drought is leading to near-famine conditions 

Kenya which has experienced a record six below average rainy seasons 

Ethiopia has seen six below average rainy seasons in a drought affecting 31 million people 

Over 40 million people have been impacted by the drought across East Africa. The drought affecting countries like Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia began in October 2020. Throughout these regions, insecurity, severe drought, and an exponential increase in food prices have brought millions to the brink of famine. 

“Somalia is seeing the worst of the crisis, with over 200,000 already living in the most extremes of hunger, but the challenge is regional,” says Abukar Mohamud, IRC’s Deputy Director of Programs for Somalia. “Across East Africa, people are facing the worst drought in 40 years.  

“People are not just dying due to a lack of food. Hunger means their weakened bodies cannot fight off diseases like diarrhea, measles or malaria, so death rates are high. Children are particularly at risk and often die at double the rate of adults. And those who survive will face ill health for the rest of their lives. The 2011 famine saw over 250,000 people die of hunger – half of whom were children.” 

What is the IRC doing to help in East Africa? 

East Africa is home to some of the IRC’s longest-running programs globally. Today, over 2,000 IRC staff in the region are scaling up our programs to address the current drought and rising food insecurity, including expanding to new areas to meet severe needs. 

This includes health programming, food and cash assistance, and providing clean water.  

A new approach to treating malnutrition 

Currently, 80% of malnourished children do not have access to treatment. The IRC has developed a streamlined approach for treatment so that more children can access treatment and recover. We are working to raise funds and remove blocks so that this treatment can be distributed at scale in places like East Africa.  

How can I help?

Around the world, our staff are working around the clock to ensure families can survive, recover and regain control of their futures. Donate now to support our work.

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Questions and Answers about Droughts Active

This page offers some questions and answers about the hydrology of droughts. This information is taken from the web site of the U.S. Geological Survey Water Science Center in Maryland, Delaware, and Washington, D.C. Some content was modified and adapted to Puerto Rico.Droughts: Droughts: https://www.usgs.gov/special-topic/water-science-school/science/droughts-things-know?qt-science_center_objects=0#qt-science_center_objects

What is a drought?

• What causes drought?

When does a drought begin?

Does a shortage of rain mean that a drought will occur?

Why doesn't a drought go away when it rains?

Can drought affect the water level in wells?

While it is relatively easy to define what a hurricane or earthquake is, defining a drought is more subjective. Droughts do not have the immediate effects of floods, but sustained droughts can cause economic stress throughout an area. The word "drought" has various meanings, depending on a person's perspective. To a farmer, a drought is a period of moisture deficiency that affects the crops under cultivation—even two weeks without rainfall can stress many crops during certain periods of the growing cycle. To a meteorologist, a drought is a prolonged period when precipitation is less than normal. To a water manager, a drought is a deficiency in water supply that affects water availability and water quality. To a hydrologist, a drought is an extended period of decreased precipitation and streamflow. Droughts in Puerto Rico have severely affected municipal and industrial water supplies, agriculture, stream water quality, recreation at major reservoirs, hydropower generation, and forest resources.

What causes droughts?

A drought is a period of drier-than-normal conditions that results in water-related problems. Precipitation falls in uneven patterns across the country. The amount of precipitation at a particular location varies from year to year, but over a period of years, the average amount is fairly constant. The spatial distribution of rainfall in Puerto Rico is variable. Rainfall is greatest in the Sierra de Luquillo rainforest in the eastern part of Puerto Rico. The mean annual total rainfall in Sierra de Luquillo is 169 inches per year (in/yr). The least amount of rainfall occurs in the vicinity of Guánica at Ensenada in southwestern Puerto Rico. In this area, the mean annual total rainfall is 30 in/yr.

Air temperatures fluctuate little throughout the year as a result of relatively constant insolation (that is, solar radiation) and seawater temperatures. The rate of delivery of solar radiation is nearly constant because the difference in daylight hours varies little throughout the year. Between the longest day of the year (13 hours, 13 minutes) and the shortest day (11 hours, 2 minutes), the amount of daylight differs by only slightly more than 2 hours. Mean monthly seawater temperatures vary by only about 4 °C; the mean maximum water temperature of 28 °C occurs in October, and the mean minimum water temperature of 24 °C occurs in January.

Major rainfall events producing substantial volumes of rain in Puerto Rico and the outlying islands are caused by one of two climate mechanisms—the passage of an easterly wave or the passage of a cold front. Easterly waves generally occur during May to November with some having sufficient intensity to evolve into tropical storms and (or) hurricanes. Cold fronts generally occur during November to April and may produce sufficient rainfall to cause flooding even during the period from December to March, which is a relatively dry period. The number of easterly waves or cold fronts passing over the region in any given year ultimately determines whether the region experiences relatively dry conditions or wet conditions. As a result, localized droughts occur yearly within many of the geographic areas of Puerto Rico.

Reference: Hydrogeology of Puerto Rico and the Outlying Islands of Vieques, Culebra, and Mona.

The beginning of a drought is difficult to determine. Several weeks, months, or even years may pass before people know that a drought is occurring. The end of a drought can occur as gradually as it began. Dry periods can last for 10 years or more. During the 1930's, most of the United States was much drier than normal. In Puerto Rico, for the 50-year period (1961 to 2010) there were six (6) years considered as drought years (1964, 1967, 1973, 1991, 1994, and 1997).

Climatological drought conditions in the Eastern Interior Climatic area of Puerto Rico typically occur when the annual rainfall amount is less than 70-80 percent of normal rainfall (a deficit of 20 to 30 percent below normal).

A period of below-normal rainfall does not necessarily result in drought conditions. Some rain returns to the air as water vapor when water evaporates from water surfaces and from moist soil. Plant roots draw some of the moisture from the soil and return it to the air through a process called transpiration. The total amount of water returned to the air by these processes is called evapotranspiration. Sunlight, humidity, temperature, and wind affect the rate of evapotranspiration. When evapotranspiration rates are high, soils can lose moisture and dry conditions can develop. During cool, cloudy weather, evapotranspiration rates may be low enough to offset periods of below-normal precipitation and a drought may be less severe or may not develop at all.

Reference: Moreland, 1993.

Rainfall in any form will provide some drought relief. A good analogy might be how medicine and illness relate to each other. A single dose of medicine can alleviate symptoms of illness, but it usually takes a sustained program of medication to cure an illness. Likewise, a single rainstorm will not break the drought, but it may provide temporary relief.

A light to moderate shower will probably only provide cosmetic relief. It might make folks feel better for awhile, provide cooling, and make the vegetation perk up. During the growing season, most of the rain that falls will be quickly evaporated or used by plants. Its impact is short term.

A thunderstorm will provide some of the same benefits as the shower, but it also may cause loss of life and property if it is severe. Thunderstorms often produce large amounts of precipitation in a very short time, and most of the rain will run off into drainage channels and streams rather than soak into the ground. If the rain happens to fall upstream of a reservoir, much of the runoff will be captured by the reservoir and add to the available water supply. No matter where the rain falls, stream levels will rise quickly and flooding may result. Also, because the rainfall and runoff can be intense, the resulting runoff can carry significant loads of sediment and pollutants that are washed from the land surface.

Soaking rains are the best medicine to alleviate drought. Water that enters the soil recharges ground water, which in turn sustains vegetation and feeds streams during periods when it is not raining. A single soaking rain will provide lasting relief from drought conditions, but multiple such rains over several months may be required to break a drought and return conditions to within the normal range.

Tropical storm rains are usually of the soaking variety, although they may also be intense such as during a thunderstorm and lead to some of the same problems. Tropical storms often produce more total rainfall than a "regular" soaking rain and can provide longer relief than a single soaking rain. However, tropical rains may also be of such intensity that they exceed the capacity of soil to absorb water and often result in significant runoff and flooding. Tropical rains can help to fill water-supply reservoirs and provide long-term drought insurance. If significant rainfall does not occur upstream of reservoirs, the drought relief aspects of tropical storms may be of only little consequence. All things considered, a single tropical storm at the right place, at the right time, and with the right amount of rainfall can break a drought.

Considering all of the above, even when a drought has been broken it may not be truly over. The benefits of substantial rainfall such as from a tropical storm may last for months, but a return to normal rainfall patterns and amounts is necessary for conditions in streams, reservoirs, and ground water to also return to normal.

Ground water, which is found in aquifers below the surface of the Earth, is one of the Nation's most important natural resources. Ground water is used to provide a large portion of the Nation's population with drinking water, it provides business and industries water for their purposes, and is used extensively for irrigation.

The water level in the aquifer that supplies a well does not always stay the same. Droughts, seasonal variations in rainfall, and pumping affect the height of the underground water levels. If a well is pumped at a faster rate than the aquifer around it is recharged by precipitation or other underground flow, then water levels in the well can be lowered. This can happen during drought, due to the extreme deficit of rain. The water level in a well can also be lowered if other wells near it are withdrawing too much water.

Gómez-Gómez and others, 2014, Drought : Hydrogeology of Puerto Rico and the Outlying Islands of Vieques, Culebra, and Mona , Scientific Investigations Map 3296.,  http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/sim329 6

Moreland, J.A., 1993, Drought : U.S. Geological Survey Water Fact Sheet, Open-File Report 93-642, 2p.

Drought Definition: A Hydrological Perspective

Cite this chapter.

• E. L. Tate 3 &
• A. Gustard 3  

Part of the book series: Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research ((NTHR,volume 14))

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This paper summarises different techniques for defining a drought. Hydrologists as distinct from economists or social scientists define drought according to water deficits in some component of the hydrological cycle (precipitation, soil moisture, river flow and groundwater) or the impact on the level of service provided to public water supply, irrigation or hydropower demands. Generic features of droughts are their severity, frequency, duration and spatial extent. For operational purposes it is essential that a wide range of analytical procedures are used according to the response characteristics of the resource system. However, for comparisons of drought severity over time and between countries, there may be merit in applying simple procedures for drought frequency assessment.

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• Drought Severity
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Tate, E.L., Gustard, A. (2000). Drought Definition: A Hydrological Perspective. In: Vogt, J.V., Somma, F. (eds) Drought and Drought Mitigation in Europe. Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research, vol 14. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-9472-1_3

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Drought's Effect on the Economy and You

Erika Rasure is globally-recognized as a leading consumer economics subject matter expert, researcher, and educator. She is a financial therapist and transformational coach, with a special interest in helping women learn how to invest.

• Drought and Climate Change

1930s Drought Worsened the Depression

Southwest drought, midwest drought, drought and wildfires, droughts effects around the world, drought forecast, solutions to man-made droughts, frequently asked questions (faqs), what are the different types of drought, how is drought measured, which states are the worst for drought.

A drought is a reduction in precipitation over an extended period. This creates a water shortage that damages crops, livestock, and the environment. Since droughts adversely impact the agricultural industry, those that depend on the commodities from the industry suffer as well. Food becomes more scarce, and demand exceeds supply. Prices go up, and the commodities markets waiver .

If the economy is already in a state of depression or recession , a drought can increase that state. Climate change can also amplify the effects of a drought. A drought can further cause damage by increasing the risk of large-scale wildfires, and it can cause populations to begin tapping into their emergency reserves of water—the aquifers that collect water underground.

It helps to understand how droughts can deepen the effects of a changing climate, and how they have played a part in environmental and human circumstances in the recent past—so that one day, humans can move past destroying fragile ecosystems and still survive in comfort on the planet.

Key Takeaways

• A drought is a reduction in precipitation over an extended period.
• Droughts damage agriculture and the food supplies.
• Droughts create floods and wildfires.
• Drought worsened the Great Depression.
• Agribusiness is draining the Ogallala Aquifer, which could dry up by 2100.
• Climate change combined with human activity is causing severe drought around the world.

Drought and Climate Change

How does climate change create more severe droughts? It’s a vicious cycle—greenhouse gas emissions trap heat, causing air temperatures to increase. The hot air absorbs more moisture, resulting in less rain. Hotter air also increases evaporation from lakes and rivers, reducing water sources. Reduced rainfall kills the plants that normally retain moisture in the soil, leading to even drier conditions.

Unfortunately, droughts also increase the likelihood of more extreme weather . When it does rain, the hardened dirt and soil cause water to run off the dry land. This keeps the water from being absorbed into the water table.

Since the drought kills plants, there are no roots to retain the soil during rainfall. This runoff creates larger and more frequent flash floods, by creating new flow patterns. Dead vegetation, warmer air, and decreased rainfall also increase the frequency and severity of wildfires .  

In the 1930s, shifting weather patterns over both oceans cause the Pacific to grow cooler, while the Atlantic grew warmer. This combination changed the direction of the jet stream, which usually carries moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to the Great Plains, dumping rain when it reaches the Rockies. When the jet stream moved south, the rain never reached the Great Plains. 

This caused the Midwest to sink into a drought. Crops and the agricultural industry depressed, adding to the economic downturn that was already in existence.

The Colorado River basin stretches from Wyoming to Mexico. It provides water for 40 million people and 5 million acres of farmland from Wyoming to California and Mexico. The driest period in the past 1,200 years started in 2000. One recent study estimated that global warming will lower the river’s flow by another 35% by 2100.

The river feeds into Lake Powell on the Utah and Arizona border and then Lake Mead in Nevada. Lake Powell is only 48% full, and Lake Mead is 38% full.  In mid-2018, the water level in Lake Mead had dropped to 1,076 feet above sea level.

California has been experiencing record droughts for some time. Snowmelt from the Sierra Nevadas has become harder to count on due to less snowfall. As a result, farmers are draining the aquifers, many of which aren’t recharging due to a shortened rainy season.

California produces two-thirds of the nations' fruits and nuts, and a third of its vegetables.  The soil and climate are ideal, but the water supply is not, because irrigation uses 40%-80% of the state's water supply.  

The California drought cost the state an estimated $3.8 billion in 2014-2016, the deepest two years of the drought. Almost three-quarters of the losses were in the southern Central Valley.

Agribusiness is draining the groundwater from the Ogallala Aquifer eight times faster than rain is putting it back. The Aquifer stretches from South Dakota to Texas. At the current rate of use, it will dry up within the century. Scientists say it would take 6,000 years for the rain to refill the aquifer. The area is home to a $20-billion-a-year industry that grows one-fifth of U.S. wheat, corn, and beef cattle. 

In 2012, the central Great Plains suffered the worst drought since 1895. It was worse than the driest summers of the 1930s Dust Bowl. It added to the 2010-2011 drought suffered by the southern Great Plains when air currents failed to bring seasonal moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. The dry air created record heat waves, causing corn yields to drop almost as much as they did in the 1930s. The U.S. Department of Agriculture declared a natural disaster for over 2,245 counties covering 71% of the country.

The drought withered crops in the field. As a result, farmers had to slaughter cattle that had become too expensive to feed.

The Midwestern Drought has caused the line that separates the humid east from the dry west, the "100th Meridian," to shift 140 miles eastward. This line runs north to south through Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, and the Dakotas. It separates the humid East from the dry West and now resides on the 98th meridian.

As a result, farmers will have to begin planting drought resistant crops, and portions of once humid east are becoming dryer. This also means that the combination of weather phenomena and human actions that caused the severe dust storms of the Midwest in the 1930s could happen again.

Thanks to rising temperatures, shorter winters, and longer summers, the western U.S. wildfire frequency has increased by 400% since 1970.  Damaging wildfires have occurred in recent years in places like California, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico.

A drought has been affecting the eastern Mediterranean Levant region since 1998. According to NASA, it's likely the worst in the past 900 years.

From 2006 to 2011, Syria suffered from an extreme drought that climate change made worse. It displaced farmers, helped to create a civil war, resulting in thousands of people migrating to Europe.

Northern Africa and the Sahel, a band of farmland south of the Sahara, are experiencing drought, and the Sahara desert is expanding southward into Sudan and Chad.  Refugees from those regions are close on the heels of Syrian and Afghan migrants moving into Europe. By 2050, there may be more than 140 million climate refugees on the move.

Drought threatens the 8.8 million residents of Mexico City, according to the city's chief resilience office, Arnoldo Kramer. The city pumps drinking water from underground aquifers, which is draining the water table. The portions of the city that rest on clay sink as the water table falls. Many areas of the city must rely on water to be trucked in from elsewhere.

The NOAA publishes a short-term drought outlook, which predicts the U.S. drought conditions for the next month and season. If climate change isn't arrested, the United States will be much drier by 2030. The Midwest will drop to between -0.2 and -0.4 on the Palmer drought scale. In 80 years, areas of the United States, the Mediterranean, and Africa will experience severe drought, from -0.4 to -0.10 on the scale. 

Studies have predicted that by 2050, the American Southwest and Great Plains will experience a megadrought.

The megadrought is predicted to last 50 years, according to scientists at Cornell University. It will be similar to droughts that occurred in the region during the 12th and 13th centuries, but is theorized to be entirely man-made, a consequence of anthropogenic global warming .

Government policies could solve short-term, man-made drought problem. First, they could reverse subsidy policies that encourage thirsty crops like cotton. Instead, the subsidies should be directed toward crops that are less consumptive of water. Second, policies that promote water conservation should be implemented. These could include waste-water recycling, desert landscaping, and low-flow appliances.

In the long-term, the government must stop climate change to solve the on-going drought. Nations must limit the amount of greenhouse gases emitted into the Earth's atmosphere, to reduce heat retention. Once that is done,  carbon emissions trading  and carbon taxes for non-compliance can encourage businesses to adhere to the cap.

They are meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, ecological, and socioeconomic drought.

There are five degrees of drought, from D0 to D4, with D0 being the most minor and D4 being the most widespread and devastating.

Nevada and Arizona are the most drought-prone states.

The Climate Reality Project. “ The Facts About Climate Change and Drought ,”

A. Park Williams, et.al. " Large Contribution From Anthropogenic Warming to an Emerging North American Megadrought ," Science. Vol 368, Page 314-318.

Advancing Earth and Space Science. “ The Twenty-First Century Colorado River Hot Drought and Implications for the Future .”

Make Mead Water Level. " Lake Mead Water Level ."

NOAA Drought Task Force. “ How Severe Has the California Drought Been? ”

California Department of Food and Agriculture. " California Agricultural Production Statistics ."

Congressional Research Service. " California Agricultural Production and Irrigated Water Use ."

Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management. " Lessons from California’s 2012–2016 Drought ."

Scientific American. “ The Ogallala Aquifer: Saving a Vital U.S. Water Source ."

Earth System Research Laboratory. “ An Interpretation of the Origins of the 2012 Central Plains Drought, Assessment Report, 20 March 2013 ."

American Meteorological Society. " Whither the 100th Meridian? The Once and Future Physical and Human Geography of America’s Arid–Humid Divide. Part II: The Meridian Moves East ."

Science. " Warming and Earlier Spring Increase Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity ."

NASA. “ NASA Finds Drought in Eastern Mediterranean Worst of Past 900 Years ."

American Meteorological Society. " Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in Syria ."

University of Maryland. " The Sahara Desert is Expanding, According to New UMD Study ."

The World Bank. " Climate Change Could Force Over 140 Million to Migrate Within Countries by 2050: World Bank Report ."

The New York Times. “ Mexico City, Parched and Sinking, Faces a Water Crisis ."

National Weather Service. “ Climate Prediction Center ."

University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. “ Climate Change: Drought May Threaten Much of Globe Within Decades ."

Science Advances. " Unprecedented 21st Century Drought Risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains ."

Carbon Tax Center. “ What’s a Carbon Tax? ”

NOAA. " Drought Basics ."

NOAA. " Drought: Degrees of Drought Reveal the True Picture ."

NOAA. " How Drought Prone Is Your State? A Look at the Top States and Counties in Drought Over the Last Two Decades ."

A  natural disaster  is a major adverse event. Disaster results from natural processes of the Earth. Droughts are one of them. Drought is basically the unusual dryness of the soil.

                                                                                                      Droughts

Introduction to Droughts

Drought is shortly the unusual dryness of soil due to the levels of rainfall. Drought occurs when rainfall is significantly below average over a prolonged period. It is an event of shortages in the water supply, surface water, or groundwater. A drought can last for years, months or days.

Shortage of water, Dry and hot winds, rise in temperature, and consequent evaporation of moisture from the ground contribute to conditions of drought. Droughts also result in crop failure too. Droughts have a major impact on the  ecosystem  and agriculture of the affected regions. Also, droughts harm the local economy of the region. Droughts are considered a natural disaster as it disturbs our whole ecosystem.

Drought is considered as the recurring feature of the climate in most parts of the world. These days regular droughts have become more extreme and more unpredictable because of climatic changes. Also, studies based on dendrochronology, confirm that the drought-affected by global warming goes back to 1900.

Millennium Drought in Australia (1997–2009) is a well-known historical drought. The drought led to a water supply crisis across the country. As a result of it, many desalination plants were built for the first time. These plants are meant for the process of removing salt from seawater. The State of Texas in 2011, lived under a drought emergency declaration for the whole year. The state suffered severe economic losses. If ant time drought persists, the conditions surrounding the region gradually worsen and its impact on the local population gradually increases day by day.

Types of Droughts

Meteorological drought.

This type of drought occurs when there is a prolonged time with less than average rainfall. Meteorological drought usually paves the way for other kinds of drought.

Agricultural Drough t

This type of drought affects crop production or the ecology of the range. The conditions of drought can arise independently due to any change in precipitation levels, irrigation, or soil conditions.  Erosion occurs because of poorly planned agricultural attempts. This causes a shortfall in water available to the crops causes drought. However, the traditional drought occurs due to an extended period of below-average rainfall.

Hydrological Drought

This type of drought occurs when the water reserves available to us fall below a significant threshold. These sources are that are aquifers, lakes and reservoirs fall. Hydrological drought tends to show up more slowly.

This slow pace of drought is because it involves stored water that is used but not replenished from sources. Like an agricultural drought, this can be triggered by more than just a loss of rainfall. For example, around 2007 Kazakhstan was given a large amount of money by the World Bank to restore water that had been diverted to other nations from the Aral Sea under Soviet rule.

Causes of Drought

A drought is mainly the cause of drier conditions. It is comparable to normal conditions that eventually lead to water supply problems. Really hot temperatures which eventually cause the moisture to evaporate from the soil can make drought worse. If any region is hot and dry, it doesn’t always mean that it is going through a drought. The dry season greatly increases drought occurrence. It is characterized by its low humidity, with watering holes and cracks, and rivers drying up. Due to the lack of these watering holes, many animals unwillingly migrate. This migration is due to the lack of water in search of more fertile lands.

Land and water temperatures cause droughts. As the temperature increases, more water evaporates and severe weather conditions also increase. Landscapes and crops need more water for their survival and growth and thus the overall demand for water increases gradually. Drought also occurs by air circulation and weather patterns. The water we have today is all the water we ever have now. Water available is moved by the weather patterns in the air all around. This is changing constantly.

Soil moisture levels also lead to drought. There is the evaporation of water for the creation of clouds when the soil moisture depletes. Demand, need, and supply of water issues are also a cause of droughts. The demand for water by people can worsen the situation depending on how the region reacts. Especially when the weather conditions, temperatures, or air patterns push a region toward a drought. Excessive irrigation is excellent for papa contributing to drought.

FAQs on Droughts

Question 1: What are the consequences of drought?

Answer: Some common consequences of drought are:

• Diminished crop growth or yield productions.
• Dust bowls and Dust storms, when drought hits an area suffering from desertification and erosion.
• Habitat damage – affecting terrestrial and aquatic wildlife.
• Hunger– drought provides too little water for food crops and human beings.
• Malnutrition, dehydration and related diseases is a major consequence.
• Mass migration of people in search of food and water is very common.
• Shortages of water for industrial and domestic purposes.
• Fight over natural resources, including water and food.

Question 2: Is drought a natural disaster or a man-made disaster?

Answer: A natural hazard is a threat of a naturally occurring event that has a negative impact on the environment, humans, and their survival. This negative effect is a natural disaster. In simple words when the hazardous threat eventually happens and harms human life, we call the event a natural disaster.

Drought is a natural disaster. Lack of precipitation for a protracted period of time causes drought. This results in a water shortage which affects the ecosystem. While droughts occur naturally, human activity, such as water use and water management, can exacerbate the dry conditions of the region.

Question 3: How to prevent droughts.

Answer: To deal effectively with the drought, here are some measures:

• Interlinking of national water resources (rivers).
• Agriculture and irrigation patterns need change.
• Water transportation channels need to be maintained properly. Leakages are bad.
• Water-intensive industries should be away from water deficit regions.
• Accumulating as much as rainwater we could. Improving rain harvesting infrastructure. Building more check dams, a small run of the river projects, more farm-lakes, improving water table, using mulching techniques in farms.
• Water meters need to be in a place like electricity meters. Asking someone not to consume excess water unnecessarily has not given good results so far. Nobody can count water a water meter will do that.
• Have water trains on standby. Attach them to the units of disaster management teams. As soon as a possibility of drought arises in a region, the water train can reach there.
• We need to prevent deforestation and thus we require afforestation.
• Judicious use of water. Awareness that wasted water won’t come back easily.

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Essay on drought: definition, causes and regions.

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Essay on Drought: Definition, Causes, Regions and Other Details!

The most common cause for drought is failure of rains. The tanks, wells and similar underground water reserves remain unchanged. As a result there is not enough water available through hand pumps, wells and other traditional sources that depend on underground reserves of water.

Dry parched lands wherein cracks have developed, failed crops, starving cattle and human beings are common sights in newspapers during the drought season. Acute scarcity of water leads to human misery in multiple forms. There is no food or fodder. Drinking water is scarce. Wells dry up. There is no water in the traditional tanks. Families move out of their homes to distant places in search of employment.

What Causes Drought :

Vulnerable regions :.

There are certain chronic drought affected regions. They include West Rajasthan and the Kutchtch regions of Gujarat. The main reason is their geographical location. The Monsoons are too weak by the time they reach there. Degradation of environment by human beings also adds to the severity of the problem.

Other prominently drought prone areas are Western Orissa, Rayalsema and Telengana areas of Andhra Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, Central Maharashtra, interior Karnataka and parts of Tamil Nadu. It may sound surprising but Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are States that suffer from both floods and drought. It has been estimated that around 70% of cultivable land in India is Drought prone.

In Rajasthan, some areas have been experiencing very little rains for three years consecutively. The plight of people in those affected regions is hard to imagine. The worst affected by droughts are the marginal farmers. Landless labourers and other persons from economically backward section of the society. Tribals who depend on forest produce for their livelihood also suffer a lot in times of drought.

Compounding Factors :

Apart from scanty rainfall, a number of other factors also adversely affect the magnitude of droughts. Depletion of green cover is one such factor. Rainwater falling over barren land is washed away into the rivulets and from there into the sea. There is nothing on the soil to hold it. The underground reserves get no time for getting recharged in these circumstances.

Effects of Droughts :

Farmers are the worst to suffer when the rains fail. They lose crops and are left with no fodder for their cattle. Repeated droughts cut down the volume of agricultural production. Insufficient market supplies push up prices of foods grains making them beyond the reach of poor people. Since these people have little or no savings, they become the worst victims of famine conditions.

The burden of fetching water for household consumption invariably falls on the women. In addition, they have to collect wood for fuel and fodder for the domestic cattle. All these chores add to their physical burden. Traditionally women get little nutrition from the family meals, being in most cases content with what is left over.

People living in desert lands have to face water scarcity even in normal times. Their condition becomes worse under drought conditions. Since there is no work at their usual sites, families are forced to move out in search of employment.

Children are also the worst victims of drought conditions. Newspapers carry horrible tales of children having been sold by starving parents. These children end up as bonded labourers or get forced into yet more degrading occupations. Their schooling gets disrupted and any hopes for their future lie shattered.

Drought Impact- The Way Out :

Unlike earthquakes or cyclones, droughts can be predicted much in advance. They give ample time for the State authorities to prepare for and cope with the problems raised by drought. The quantity and duration of rainfall can be predicted by Meteorological Department with fair degree of accuracy.

The intensity and impact of droughts can be countered through a series of preventive as well as curative measures. It is very important that through small scale and cottage industry promotion, the dependence on agriculture should be drastically reduced in drought prone areas.

Rain water harvesting projects executed through community cooperation have been a great success in some parts of Rajasthan. The success model need to be repeated in other regions too.

Forest cover should be increased through plantation.

Arid cultivation technologies should be researched upon and extended to drought prone areas.

Drought Management strategies should be made popular through involvement of the community.

Crop insurance schemes should be introduced.

Role of Students in Drought Management:

1. Water is a very scarce commodity in some parts of the country. And yet some people who can afford tend to waste it. Bathing through buckets and mugs consumes much less water than showers or tubs. Water from the bathroom can be led into the garden. Cars can be swapped rather than being washed by jet. Students should make people aware of these and even monitor that no wasteful practices are followed.

2. Rain water falling on roofs and open spaces can be harvested. Instead of it flowing into the drain, it could be redirected into a well or even the bore- well.

3. Plantation of trees and caring for them is something that each one can do, it would go a long way in recharging ground water reserves with whatever water is received through rains.

4. Care must be taken in choosing trees to be planted. The ones like Eucalyptus absorb all the water around them and must be avoided in arid regions.

Conserving Traditional Water Resources :

Long before the system of piped water in homes came into existence, there used to be a variety of water resources. Through neglect overtime, many of them have dried up or become out of use. Now that we are all feeling the crunch of water scarcity, we have to reenergize those sources.

Naturally occurring water holes are common phenomena in hilly regions. In some cases, village communities built small tanks that were fed water from hill streams or springs.

The practice needs to be revived and encouraged.

Flood irrigation leads to plenty of wastage. It also creates water logging problems.

Drip irrigation, irrigation through channels with pucca beds or bamboo pipes as practiced in Meghalaya saves water from being wasted.

Seasonal streams are at some places used to feed catchment basins. Channels are built to connect the streams to the tanks and the stored water becomes available for both domestic use as well as irrigation.

Conservation in Water Surplus Areas :

Water conservation is important both in areas where water is scarce and where water is abundant. Modern technology is capable of transporting surplus water to areas thousands of kilometers away where even a glass full may be luxury.

There is already talk about having a water grid that would connect major rivers all over the country. Such a project can take care of both the floods and the drought situations.

Related Articles:

• Drought Prone Areas of India | Geography
• Drought: Essay on Drought (With Diagrams)

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Original research article, agricultural drought and its potential impacts: enabling decision-support for food security in vulnerable regions.

• 1 Centre for Environmental Management, University of the Free State, Bloemfontein, South Africa
• 2 Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Fort Hare, Alice, South Africa

Increasing demand for food and environmental stressors are some of the most challenging problems that human societies face today and these have encouraged new studies to examine drought impacts on food production. Seeking to discuss these important issues in the South African context, this study analyzed the impacts of drought on food security in one of the country's largest commercial agricultural land (Free State Province). Earth observation and crop data were acquired from Application for Extracting and Exploring Analysis Ready Samples (AppEEARS) and GrainSA databases, respectively for years 2011/2012–2020/2021 over Free State Province. Two crops namely, maize and sorghum were obtained from the database and analyzed accordingly to quantify drought impacts on the two crops. The result reveals that the years 2015 and 2018 were affected by extreme drought events (<10%) where the majority of the study area was impacted. Years 2011, 2016, 2018, and 2019 were severely affected by drought (>30%) and impacted the agricultural sector in the study area. Findings further revealed that maize production observed the lowest recorded in the year 2014 and 2015 with about 223,600 and 119,050 tons, respectively. More so, results further showed that sorghum production recorded the lowest production in years 2019, 2016, and 2015 with about 23,600, 24,640, and 24,150 tons, in that order during the period of study. The results confirm the impacts of drought on maize and sorghum productions in the year 2015 and other years that recorded the lowest productions during drought years. This development might have impacted food security in the study area, and this outcome will enable decision-making bodies on food security to enhance improved strategy in vulnerable areas.

Introduction

Drought's key characteristics, such as their inherently wide spatial and temporal extent, the large number of people impacted, or the massive economic loss, have caused logistic and financial challenges all over the world ( Berhan et al., 2013 ; Enenkel et al., 2015 ). Droughts and associated food shortages are high on humanitarian relief groups' priority lists, and the bulk of online disaster platforms focus on disaster that strikes quickly (for instance, floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, or other storms) and little to no attention focus on drought and its occurrences. The difficulty of operational drought forecasting systems to produce valid predictions about the location, magnitude, and type of assistance needed in the medium to long term, i.e., several months ahead of time, is a serious flaw ( Khadr, 2016 ; Hao et al., 2018 ; Kreibich et al., 2019 ). Even in cases where predictions were made, such as warnings of severe drought conditions in Sub-Saharan Africa ( Ahmed, 2020 ; Fava and Vrieling, 2021 ), there is still a lack of response on the ground ( Enenkel et al., 2015 ). Furthermore, large-scale drought predictions have failed in industrialized countries such as the United States ( Schiermeier, 2013 ; Anderson et al., 2018 ; Daigh et al., 2018 ). This is exacerbated by the fact that there is no universally agreed definition of drought ( Enenkel et al., 2015 ), and climate change impacts on global drought patterns ( Enenkel et al., 2015 ; Salami et al., 2021 ), as well as global food security ( Dhankher and Foyer, 2018 ; Purakayastha et al., 2019 ). Simultaneously, teleconnections must be considered, such as the impact of anomalies in sea surface temperatures on drought episodes in Sub-Saharan Africa, which have influenced the complexity of already sophisticated models and evaluations. Furthermore, because different types of drought, such as meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological, have varied socio-economic consequences, a single physically measurable drought parameter for all of these scenarios is not attainable ( Orimoloye et al., 2019 ; Ekundayo et al., 2020 , 2021 ).

In recent decades, significant progress has been made in sustaining global food production. Nonetheless, feeding 9.8 billion people by 2050 would be a challenge, particularly in drought-prone and arid regions of the developing world ( He et al., 2019 ). Droughts, for example, are a regular occurrence in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly South Africa ( Orimoloye et al., 2021a , b ), and can be exacerbated by other variables (such as heat waves, floods, and violence; Ropo et al., 2017 ). Food production shocks (i.e., unexpected losses and increases in price) have been more common in all sectors including food industries during the last five decades ( Cottrell et al., 2019 ; He et al., 2019 ). Extreme weather causes half of these shocks ( Cottrell et al., 2019 ), with disproportionate effects on countries with little coping capability, such as farmers' ability to diversify food production or governments' ability to import food or provide insurance. The 2017 Kenya drought, for example, prompted a national emergency and left about 2.5 million people hungry ( Gichure, 2017 ; He et al., 2019 ). The impact of increased drought risk due to climate change ( Naumann et al., 2018 ; He et al., 2019 ) can be mitigated through more effective adaptation methods, measures and innovative research, which will aid progress toward achieving the second United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG; i.e., zero hunger). If multiple interrelated SDG goals are to be achieved at the same time (e.g., SDG2 to ensure food security, SDG6 to ensure water security, and SDG13 to foster resilience), synchronous challenges emerge, as they interact across a range of spatial and temporal scales, resulting in diverse trade-offs, synergies, and even competing policy responses with scale-dependent impacts ( Obersteiner et al., 2016 ; Gao and Bryan, 2017 ). Understanding the interactions between drought and food security is critical for policymakers and stakeholders to develop adaptation policies that effectively reduce the effects of drought on agricultural production and increase societal resilience to future drought-induced emergencies, all while meeting competing demands and enhancing environmental sustainability.

Recently, South Africa observed drought events that affected various sectors including agriculture and water resources. The National Disaster Management Center has declared a drought disaster due to the persistent drought conditions in the South African provinces including Free State Province and national resources are being mobilized to assist affected individuals including farmers ( Tembile, 2021 ). South Africa is facing severe pressure with respect to water security due to an increased water demand with increasing population, poor planning and management of water resources, limited investment into water reservoir infrastructure, and recurring droughts over the past decade. Droughts are common in South Africa, however, in recent years there has been a trend toward more multi-year droughts. Summer rainfall time series for several portions of South Africa, particularly the Eastern Cape and neighboring KwaZulu Natal Province, show greater multi-year droughts from the late 1970's to the late 1970's than from 1950 to the late 1970's ( Blamey et al., 2018 ). After a prolonged drought from 2015 to 2018, the Western Cape Province was named a disaster region in February 2018 ( Pienaar and Boonzaaier, 2018 ; Orimoloye et al., 2019 ; Mahlalela et al., 2020 ). Drought disaster zones were proclaimed in the Eastern Cape and Free State provinces in 2019, following severe water shortages in several urban and rural areas ( Mahlalela et al., 2020 ; Orimoloye et al., 2021a ).

Assessing agricultural drought and its potential impacts on food security in vulnerable regions is very crucial especially in drought-prone areas. The implications of agricultural droughts on food supplies may be quantified, which helps policymakers make more sustainable agricultural decisions. It necessitates a thorough evaluation of the relationships between spatiotemporal drought fluctuations, farming systems, irrigation effects, and water resource availability. Various techniques of dealing with such issues have been reported. Survey methodology, for example, is useful for gathering first-hand information on how the drought has affected crop production and how farmers have reacted to drought ( Campbell et al., 2011 ; Savari et al., 2021 ). In this paper, I, therefore, concentrate on agricultural drought impacts on food production in Free State Province South Africa. Findings from this study will enable decision support for food security in the affected areas. Despite the challenges associated with climate hazards such as drought disasters, recent technological, and methodological developments are helping to rapidly improve agricultural outputs ( Balogun et al., 2020 ; Dyosi et al., 2021 ). The emergence of space-based information is providing valuable outcomes at the high spatial and temporal resolutions with accurate maps, this can help smallholder-dominated farmers to plan for future drought events. Findings from this study can help in building greater resilience to drought and mitigate its scourges on agricultural sectors, societies, and economies.

Data and Methods

As presented in Figure 1 , the study took place in the Free State Province of South Africa. The Republic of South Africa is divided into nine provinces, one of which is the Free State. Bloemfontein is South Africa's judicial capital and the province's largest city. In the study area, there are a few additional notable towns, predominantly mining, and agricultural communities. The province is located between 26.6 ° S and 30.7 ° S latitudes, and 24.3 ° E and 29.8 ° E Greenwich meridian lengths. The climate of the province is mostly semi-arid, according to the Köppen climatic classification. The geography of the province is complex, with all surfaces above 1,000 m reaching 1,800 m in the north-eastern and eastern Free State. The province is divided into five municipal districts for administrative purposes (Fezile Dabi, Lejweleputswa, Motheo, Thabo Mofutsanyane and Xhariep). However, in November, December, and January, the region enjoys monthly mean sunlight hours of around 319.5, 296.5, and 296.3 h, respectively, with annual sunshine hours and total precipitation of ~3,312.3 and 559 mm, respectively. The region receives the least amount of rain (0 mm) in July and the most amount of rain (70 mm) in January, which correspond to the winter and summer seasons, respectively ( Orimoloye et al., 2021b ). In June, daily mean temperatures vary from 17 to 29°C. In January, daily mean temperatures range from 17 to 29°C. During the months of June and July, the coldest temperatures occur at night. The vegetation dominant in the area is grassland. A better understanding of the spatiotemporal evaluation of drought events will help to identify drought-affected areas and its potential impacts on food security in the Free State Province.

Figure 1 . Map of the study area.

The Terra product from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was used to determine the occurrence of drought in the study area. Temperature and precipitation were acquired from NASA's Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource database; MODIS was downloaded via the Application for Extracting and Exploring Analysis Ready Samples (AppEEARS; Abdi et al., 2019 ; AppEEARS Team., 2020 ). The MODIS instrument is used by both the Terra and Aqua missions. It has a 2,330 km viewing swath and views the whole Earth's surface every 1–2 days. Its detectors collect data with three spatial resolutions of 250, 500, and 1,000 m and measure 36 spectral bands between 0.405 and 14.385 m. MODIS data, along with data from other sensors aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites, is relayed to ground stations via the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS). The data will subsequently be forwarded to the EOS (Earth Observing System) Data and Operations System at Goddard Space Flight Center (EDOS; AppEEARS Team., 2020 ; Hu, 2020 ). The MODIS Adaptive Processing System (MODAPS) produces level 1A, level 1B, geolocation, and cloud mask products, as well as high-level MODIS land surface and atmosphere products, which are divided into three DAACs (Distributed Active Archive Centers) for distribution to the research and application community ( Sundaresan et al., 2014 ). The MODIS direct broadcast signal can be used to gather regional data directly from the satellite by users with a compatible x-band receiving device. The data (MOD13Q1 and the layers of interest: EVI and pixel reliability) was requested using an area sample, and the output was configured as GeoTIFF with geographic projection ( Kring, 2007 ; Sundaresan et al., 2014 ). The VIs were created at 16-day intervals, with low-quality data removed using a MODIS-specific compositing process based on product QA. The Pixel Reliability Quality Assurance (QA) layer of MOD13Q1 was used to mask or correct pixels affected by atmospheric disturbances such as clouds. The layer classifies the efficiency of the vegetation index from−1 to 5, although for this analysis, good, and poor values are classed as 0 and 1, respectively. In the pixel reliability bands, poor and marginal data are accepted as acceptable accuracy and were considered for the investigation. Agricultural information was acquired from GrainSA database.

The drought conditions in the region were determined using the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) based on the relative Normalized Vegetation Difference Index (NDVI) modification with regard to the minimum historical NDVI value as indicated by Kogan (1995) . As a result, the VCI compares the current Vegetation Index (VI), such as the NDVI or the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), to the values found inside a given pixel in past years during the same time period. The VCI was calculated using Equation 1 as shown below.

where VCI ijk is the VCI value for the pixel i during week/month/ day of the years (DOY j ) for year k , VI ijk is the weekly/monthly/DOYs VI value for pixel i in week/month/DOY j for year k whereby both the NDVI or EVI can be utilized as VI, VI i , min and VI i, max is the multiyear minimum and maximum VI, respectively, for pixel i .

The resulting percentage of the measured VI value in previous years was placed in the middle of the two extremes (minimum and maximum). As a result, lower and higher values indicate poor and good drought conditions, respectively. The method utilized in this study, namely, estimating drought occurrences with VCI using R programming, is based on EVI, which has several key values or benefits over other vegetative indices, such as NDVI. First, no reflected light distortions are caused by airborne particles; second, no reflected light distortions caused by ground cover vegetation. Adapted from UN-SPIDER recommended practices ( http://www.unspider.org/advisory-support/recommended-practices/recommended-practice-drought-monitoring ), Figure 2 shows the planning, pre-processing, and data processing operations. Maize and sorghum yields were analyzed using Microsoft excel to identify their trends and also determine the potential impacts of drought on crop yields.

Figure 2 . Flow chart.

Evaluation of drought events and its potential impacts on food production Free State Province has been presented in this study. Results reveal that drought patterns and severity varied from one place to another, which shows that the impacts can be varied especially on agricultural sector between the years 2011 and 2020. Information in Figure 3 presents drought episodes over the study area for the period of study using space-based information to quantify drought potential impacts on food security in the affected areas. From the findings, it was noted that the year 2015 and 2018 were extremely affected by drought events, this connotes that the affected years would have been impacted in terms of food production and other water-reliant sectors. It has been noted previously that there is a significant increase in mild drought events in the Free State Province, from shorter time steps (first decade) to longer time steps (third decade; Botai et al., 2016 ). During the year 2015, the Free State Province appears to have had more droughts. Drought categories have substantial implications for a variety of sectors, including agriculture and water. According to a study, drought reduced agricultural productivity in South Africa by 8.4% in 2015. The livestock industry, for example, had a 15% drop in national herd stock as a result of the drought ( Matlou et al., 2021 ). The result further reveals that years 2017 was severely affected by drought where some areas are more impacted than others. This variability may be due to several factors, such as topography, rainfall amount, human and natural activities ( Ayanlade et al., 2018 ). Drought periods affect the agricultural sector the most compared to other sectors (mining, manufacturing, construction, trade, transport, finance, and community service; Matlou et al., 2021 ).

Figure 3 . Drought events for the year 2011–2020.

Years 2011 and 2019 were moderately affected by drought as presented in Figure 3 and Table 1 . Farmers may lose resources such as capital if drought damages their crops during these years. If the farmers water supply is insufficient, they may be forced to spend more money on irrigation or drill more wells, or produce lower yields during the affected years ( Baudoin et al., 2017 ; Kuwayama et al., 2019 ). Ranchers may have to pay more money on livestock feed and water. Results further reveal that years 2012 and 2014 observed no drought episodes which connote that these 2 years may not be directly affected by drought except the prolonged drought events from the previous years ( Nguyen et al., 2018 ). Extreme climate events, including prolonged drought, may establish long-lasting effects on soil biotic and abiotic properties, thus influencing ecosystem functions including primary productivity in subsequent years ( Nguyen et al., 2018 ).

Table 1 . Potential drought impacts on agricultural products between 2011 and 2020.

Information in Figures 4 , 5 present agricultural productions between year 2011 and 2020 for maize and sorghum productions, respectively. Since agricultural drought is caused by below-average precipitation and/or above-average temperatures and wind, which evaporate moisture from soils and plants, this in turn influences crops yield ( Madadgar et al., 2017 ; Leng and Hall, 2019 ; Orimoloye et al., 2021d ). The study area recorded the lowest maize yield in year 2015 with about 1191 tons, followed by year 2014 with about 2,236 tons. The lowest maize production recorded in year 2015 corroborates with the extreme drought event in the same year ( Figure 3 and Table 1 ). The primary direct economic impact of drought in the agricultural sector is crop failure and pasture losses and this can severely affect income ( Madadgar et al., 2017 ; Liu et al., 2018 ; Leng and Hall, 2019 ; Orimoloye et al., 2021a , c ). Findings further reveal that years 2016, 2019, and 2020 recorded 5,110, 4,700, and 4,492 tons, respectively. This is further supported by drought evaluations where these 3 years observed moderate drought episodes, this may also be influenced by the drought events. Studies have shown that yield loss risk tends to grow faster when experiencing a shift in drought severity from moderate to severe conditions ( Leng and Hall, 2019 ; Orimoloye et al., 2021a , d ). This analysis shows that variability in drought trends plays an important role in determining drought impacts, through reducing or amplifying drought-driven yield loss risk ( Leng and Hall, 2019 ).

Figure 4 . Maize for year 2011–2020.

Figure 5 . Sorghum for year 2011–2020.

Sorghum production between year 2011 and 2020 is presented in Figure 4 . Total average yield (t/ha) for sorghum show that 0.9 (2016), 1.3 (2015), and 2.2 (2013) were recorded in the study area. Year 2013 recorded 139,200 tons of sorghum yields while years 2015, 2016, and 2018 recorded the lowest sorghum production with about 24,150, 24,640, and 23,600, respectively during the period ( Figure 4 ).

Drought is an extreme stage of the hydrological cycle that occurs when water availability is lower than typical ( Orimoloye et al., 2019 ; Adedeji et al., 2020 ). Droughts typically begin with a lack of precipitation (meteorological drought), which can be aggravated by increased evapotranspiration owing to high temperatures, which can spread to the land surface and result in reduced soil moisture (agricultural drought) and streamflow (called hydrological drought). Water stress during drought slows down crop root growth, delays maturation and reduces agricultural productivity ( Ge et al., 2012 ; Piscitelli et al., 2021 ). Drought occurrence is critical because crop yield susceptibility to water stress varies by development stage, which is linked to the fundamental biophysical principles of crop growth ( Oliveira and Araújo, 2021 ). As a result, drought impacts on agricultural productivity must be assessed independently for particular growth stages, which is more relevant for agricultural water management ( Orimoloye et al., 2021d ). Space-based assessments of drought are important tools for estimating drought impacts on crop yields ( Derese et al., 2018 ; Orimoloye et al., 2021c ) but these are inherently scale-dependent, ranging from the farm level at the local level to the global scale. This highlights the need for space-based information approaches ( Orimoloye et al., 2021c ) to simultaneously consider the joint distribution of the spatial and temporal footprint of drought. Such approaches can be combined with model-based large ensembles for more robust quantification of agricultural risk, this can also consider whether risk assessments are transferable across scales.

Drought tolerance may arise from extra copies of key genes, and sorghum's efficient photosynthetic pathway may be cobbled together from existing photosynthetic genes and duplicated genes that shifted their function over millions of years in order to withstand drought episodes (Citations). Droughts in the study area, infestation, insects, birds, and diseases, a lack of varieties with farmers' preferred traits and high yield potential, limited policy support, a lack of improved seed system, poor sorghum production practices and crop input application, and poor soil fertility may all have contributed to the decline in sorghum productivity ( Derese et al., 2018 ). Among the sorghum production constraints listed, severe drought in the post-flowering stage may be the most significant over time. A large number of farmers in the affected area may need to produce medium-maturing sorghum cultivars with high grain and biomass yields that can be planted at normal planting times yet avoid post-flowering drought ( Azu et al., 2021 ; Abreha et al., 2022 ).

Analysis from this study revealed spatio-temporal distributions of drought and crop trends over the study area ( Table 1 ). From the findings, drought event implications on agricultural products were identified, it was noted that the years that experienced drought episodes witnessed a decline in crop yields. For instance, the year 2015 observed extreme drought, both crops explored in the study experienced a drop in their yields, this also repeated in the year 2018 with potential drought impacts on agricultural productions ( Madadgar et al., 2017 ; Liu et al., 2018 ; Leng and Hall, 2019 ). Persistent drought episodes can influence food insecurity as this has been recorded in previous studies ( Cottrell et al., 2019 ; He et al., 2019 ). This can sometimes cause problems for downstream agriculture, particularly when the growing season for crops and peak food demand periods do not coincide. The amount to which trade-offs exist, however, is determined by the duration and spatial footprint of droughts.

Improved Decision-Support for Agricultural Droughts in Vulnerable Region

There are a number of new technological developments that could support drought risk reduction. Here we will focus on space-based information that could be better integrated to improve decision-support especially in combatting drought disasters. The approach used in this study will improve agricultural drought monitoring in the drought-affected area ( Enenkel et al., 2015 ; Brandt et al., 2017 ). This will help in gaining a better understanding of the uncertainty of long-term drought forecasts and how this information can be integrated with satellite-derived soil moisture and its potential influence on food security. For example, year 2015 observed extreme drought where both crops explored in the study observed declined in productions, this also repeated in the year 2018 with potential drought impacts on agricultural productions. These years can be examined to know how drought events have affected the area especially, agricultural production and to suggest possible practices to avert future occurrence. More so, integration of non-environmental information that can contribute to drought impact may be considered.

The most important question is: what can science do to help people make better decisions regarding drought hazards? The integrated and modification of existing technologies, including various satellite-based systems and people's experiences, is one logical and promising option. Organizations like AppEEARS (Application for Extracting and Exploring Analysis Ready Samples), USGS (United States Geological Survey), EUMETSAT (European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites), and NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) provide a wide range of satellite-derived datasets that are operational, near real-time, and free of charge (or with a minimal and low-cost receiving station). Datasets obtained from sensors, in addition to some of the more regularly used remote sensing products, can be delivered at a spatial resolution that is worth considering to complement or replace in-situ observations. Local measurement flaws including inadequate coverage and lack of spatial consistency are frequently compensated for using these databases. The interaction of drought-inducing main climatic elements (rainfall, temperature, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and vegetation) is reasonably well-understood ( Enenkel et al., 2015 ; Afuye et al., 2021a , b ). One key issue is that large-scale planning necessitates accurate drought forecasts several months in advance, which are currently insufficient ( Yaseen and Shahid, 2021 ). Another concern is that agricultural drought is only one of several potential causes of food insecurity. High degrees of vulnerability induced by interacting socio-economic factors, such as political turmoil and rising or fluctuating food costs, often encourage famine. In fact, the methods for monitoring environmental anomalies and their socioeconomic consequences are hardly comparable. Researchers should engage more closely with end-users in a multi-disciplinary manner in order to establish a holistic drought monitoring system. This strategy will help by identifying the current weak links and suggesting future mitigation strategies.

This study presented agricultural drought and its potential impacts in order to enable decision-support for food security in vulnerable societies. Analysis from this study revealed spatio-temporal distributions of drought and crop trends over the study area. The outcomes from this study revealed drought event implications on agricultural products, it was also noted that the years that experienced drought episodes witnessed a decline in crop yields. For example, year 2015 observed extreme drought, both crops explored in the study experienced a decrease in agricultural productions, this was also repeated in the year 2018 with potential drought impacts on agricultural productions during the same period. The consequence of drought is a translation of failure of early warning, local action, disaster preparedness and lack of external support. The approach for monitoring drought anomalies and their agricultural impact is hardly comparable. Scientists should engage more closely with the affected parties (farmers and water-reliant sectors), end-users in a multi-disciplinary manner in order to establish a holistic drought monitoring system. This strategy will help by identifying the current weak links and suggesting future mitigation strategies. Consequently, it is necessary to appraise drought disasters by incorporating climate information, environmental and economic implications of drought in the study area and the surrounding environments, this will help in identifying the contributing factors and the actual impacts of its occurrences in the region.

Data Availability Statement

The raw data supporting the conclusions of this article will be made available by the authors, without undue reservation.

Author Contributions

The author confirms being the sole contributor of this work and has approved it for publication.

Conflict of Interest

The author declares that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Publisher's Note

All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article, or claim that may be made by its manufacturer, is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.

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Keywords: agricultural drought, Earth observation data, food security, potential impacts, decision-support

Citation: Orimoloye IR (2022) Agricultural Drought and Its Potential Impacts: Enabling Decision-Support for Food Security in Vulnerable Regions. Front. Sustain. Food Syst. 6:838824. doi: 10.3389/fsufs.2022.838824

Received: 18 December 2021; Accepted: 13 January 2022; Published: 11 February 2022.

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Copyright © 2022 Orimoloye. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) . The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

*Correspondence: Israel R. Orimoloye, orimoloyeisrael@gmail.com ; orcid.org/0000-0001-5058-2799

This article is part of the Research Topic

Feeding the Growing Cities of Sub-Saharan Africa: Challenges of Urban Food Systems, Food Security, Urban Agriculture, and Sustainability