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Lessons learnt: examining the use of case study methodology for nursing research in the context of palliative care

Paula brogan.

School of Communication and Media, University of Ulster, Northern Ireland, UK

Felicity Hasson

Institute of Nursing Research, University of Ulster, Northern Ireland, UK

An empirical social research approach, facilitating in-depth exploration of complex, contemporary contextualised phenomena, case study research has been used internationally in healthcare studies across clinical settings, to explore systems and processes of care delivery. In the United Kingdom, case study methods have been championed by nurse researchers, particularly in the context of community nursing and palliative care provision, where its applicability is well established. Yet, dogged by conceptual confusion, case study remains largely underutilised as a research approach.

Drawing on examples from nursing and palliative care studies, this paper clarifies case study research, identifies key concepts and considers lessons learned about its potential for nursing research within the unique and complex palliative and end of life context.

A case study approach offers nurse researchers the opportunity for in-depth, contextualised understanding of the systems and processes which influence their role in palliative care delivery across settings. However, philosophical and conceptual understandings are needed and further training in case study methodology is required to enable researchers to articulate and conduct case study.

Introduction

An empirical social research approach, facilitating in-depth exploration of a contemporary phenomenon ( Yin, 2009 ), case study research has been used internationally in healthcare studies ( Anthony and Jack, 2009 ) to explore systems of palliative care ( Lalor et al., 2013 ), diverse contexts for palliative care delivery ( Sussman et al., 2011 ), roles of professional groups such as pharmacy ( O’Connor et al., 2011 ), the impact of services such as complementary therapy ( Maddalena et al., 2010 ) and nursing (Kaasalainen et al., 2013). In the United Kingdom, case study methods have been championed by nurse researchers ( Payne et al., 2006 ), particularly in the context of community nursing and palliative care provision ( Kennedy, 2005 ; Walshe et al., 2004 , 2008 ) and its applicability to palliative and end-of-life care research is established ( Goodman et al., 2012 ). Suited to the study of complex processes ( Walshe, 2011 ), case study methodology is embedded in professional guidance on the development of complex interventions ( Medical Research Council, 2008 ). Yet, case study is dogged by conceptual confusion (Flyvberg, 2006), and, despite sporadic use, remains underutilised as a research approach in healthcare settings ( Froggatt et al., 2003 ).

Illustrated by examples from nursing and palliative care studies, this paper aims to clarify conceptual understanding and identify key lessons for its application within these unique and complex contexts and, more broadly, for nursing research.

Origins and definitions

French sociologist Frederic Le Play (1806–1882) is associated with the origin of the case study approach ( Hamel et al., 1993 ). Using a purposive sample of working class families and fieldwork methods of observation and individual interview, he sought a contextualised and in-depth understanding of their individual experiences. Each family case study uncovered the unique experience of that family, but each additional family studied was another ‘ case of the lived experience’ of working class families in mid-18th century France. Thereby, Le Play used the lens of individual experience ( Yin, 2013 ) to build comparisons across families and enrich overall understanding of that complex society.

This early glimpse of the case study approach showed it to be a straightforward ‘field investigation’ ( Hamel et al., 1993 ); epistemologically pragmatic as it generated knowledge through data drawn from diverse sources, such as family members, and used the best available data collection methods then, to inform a holistic and contextualised understanding of how people operated within a complex social system ( Stake, 1995 ).

However, defining case study has become increasingly challenging since its expansion into North America in the 1800s ( Platt, 1992 ), and its use across a range of disciplines such as politics ( Gerring, 2004 ), social science ( George and Bennett, 2005 ), education ( Merriam, 1998 ) and healthcare ( Yin, 2013 ). Variously characterised as a case report, data collection method and methodology ( Anthony and Jack, 2009 ), the development of case histories as illustrations in health and social care and in education ( Merriam, 1998 ) has contributed to further confusion for researchers and readers of case study research ( Gomm et al., 2000 ). Critiques of case study note that it lacks a single definition, such that a plethora of discipline dependant interpretations ( Simons, 2009 ) and loose use of the term case study ( Tight, 2010 ) have contributed to confusion and undermined case study credibility. However, Simons ( 2009 , p. 63) advises researchers that case study must be seen within the complex nexus of political, methodological and epistemological convictions that constitute the field of enquiry, and variations of these may be glimpsed in Table 1 as definitions from four eminent and frequently cited case study authors illustrate philosophical and discipline-influenced differences in emphasis. Consequently, the case study definition selected, with its underpinning ontology and epistemology has important implications for the coherent outworking of the overall research design. It is therefore notable that many of the palliative care case studies contained in Table 2 fail to identify any such definition and this may have implications for interpretation of the quality of studies.

Definitions of case study by four key authors, showing the variation in meaning and interpretation.

Examples of Case Studies (CS) conducted in palliative care contexts.

Case study as a philosophy for the epistemology of knowledge generation

Although frequently linked to naturalistic inquiry ( Lincoln and Guba, 1986 ), interpretative/constructivist philosophy and qualitative methodology ( Stake, 1995 ), case study is not in fact bound to any single research paradigm ( Creswell, 2013 ). It is philosophically pragmatic, such that the case study design should reflect the ontological positions and epistemological considerations of the researchers and their topic of interest ( Luck et al., 2006 ). In practice, this means that case study research may pragmatically employ both qualitative and quantitative methods independently or together in order to respond to the research objectives ( Cooper et al., 2012 ; Simons, 1987 ; Stake, 2006 ). So whilst Table 2 shows that qualitative case studies are common in palliative care, epistemological variation is evident and reflects the study topic, purpose and context of the research. For example, Maddalena et al. (2010) used in-depth interview and discourse analysis to understand individual patient meaning-making; Brogan et al. (2017) used focus groups and thematic analysis as part of an embedded element of a multiple case study, to contrast the diverse perspectives of multi-disciplinary healthcare practitioners on end-of-life decision-making; Sussman et al. (2011) incorporated survey data into a mixed methods multiple case study which explored health system characteristics and quality of care delivery for cancer patients across four regions of Canada. Consequently, it is useful to ‘conceptualise (case study) as an approach to research rather than a methodology in its own right’ ( Rosenberg and Yates, 2007 , p. 448), so that a non-standardised approach exists and the case study design, its boundaries, numbers of cases and methods are guided by the stated underpinning ontological perspectives of the researcher and their topic of interest. The study then flexibly adopts the best methods to gain an in-depth, holistic and contextualised understanding of the phenomenon of interest – the latter objectives being at the core of any definition of case study research.

Key case study concepts and lessons for practice

When considering the utility of a case study approach, research conducted in complex palliative care contexts offers several insights into how central concepts translate to practice.

Contextualised understanding

Drawing on the definitions in Table 1 , Stake emphasised the particularity and intrinsic value of each individual case ( Stake, 1995 ), to emphasise the usefulness of multiple cases to increase insight ( Stake, 2006 ), analyse patterns ( Gerring, 2004 ; George and Bennett, 2005 ) and develop causal hypotheses ( Yin, 2013 ). Yet, whatever the purpose, all case studies are concerned with the crucial relationship between a phenomenon and the environment in which it has occurred. In practice therefore, case study researchers must be concerned with understanding the background systems, structures and processes that influence and interact with the phenomenon under study. This capacity for contextualised and holistic understanding is underpinned by use of multiple data collection methods, such as observation, interview and document review, used simultaneously or sequentially ( Stake, 2006 ; Scholz and Tietje, 2002 ), to mine multiple sources of data, such as participant experience ( Brogan et al., 2017 ; Kaasalainen et al., 2012 ), documents (Lalor et al., 2003) service evaluations ( Walshe et al., 2008 ), and diaries ( Skilbeck and Seymour, 2002 ). This is exemplified in a study by Walshe et al. (2011) , who investigated referral decisions made by community palliative care nurses in the UK, by capturing interview data on the self-reported perspectives of healthcare professionals, in combination with observed team meetings in which decisions were influenced, and review of the written referral policies, protocols and palliative healthcare strategies specific to those decisions. This comprehensive and complex data enabled comparison of decisional processes and their influencing factors both within and across three Primary Care Trusts, thus providing a contemporaneous understanding of the complex relationship between individual nurse's referral decisions and the impact of the organisational and professional systems that underpinned them. Enhancing rigor, such methodological triangulation importantly contributed to the richness of data analysis and the development of assertions which might be drawn from the findings ( Cooper et al., 2012 ; Stake, 2006 ).

Process-focused

Flexible data collection methods, linked to the research purpose, enables case study researchers to gather both historical and real-time data in a variety of ways. For example, Kennedy’s longitudinal case study ( Kennedy, 2002 ) observed snapshots of the initial and follow-up assessment conducted by 11 district nurses over the subsequent 12 months, enabling an exploration of the outcome and impact of their decision-making, demonstrating the usefulness of case study to understand complex roles and processes which are fluid and elusive ( Yin, 2013 ), or otherwise difficult to capture, particularly in the intimate interpersonal contexts where nursing happens.

Analytic frame

Palliative care studies reviewed frequently report the use of thematic analysis. However, whilst this approach is certainly useful to process data generated in qualitative case studies, the approach to analysis must be congruent with the research design and reflect the purpose of the research and methods used. Moreover, beyond decisions about use of thematic analysis or descriptive statistics etc., in case study, important decisions must be made about the analytic frame of the research. Gerring’s definition (2004) set out the analytic frame in which the cases studied might be understood, explaining that each unit of analysis (or case), sheds light on other units (or cases). Thus defined, an individual case offers intrinsically valuable information about a phenomenon ( Stake, 1995 ) and the purposeful selection of cases is central to case study design. This is because, viewed from a certain angle, each case is also a case of something else, such that the findings have broader implications ( Gerring, 2004 ; Simons, 2009 , 1987 ; Yin, 2013 ). In practice, this means that the case and what it is a case of, must be clearly identified and well defined at the outset of a study, since this has implications for the relevance of findings. This can be seen in a study by O’Connor et al., (2011) , who considered the perceived role of community pharmacists in palliative care teams in Australia. Each unique case included multi-disciplinary healthcare team members, such as pharmacists, doctors and nurses working in localities, whose perspectives were sought. Each locality group was a case of community pharmacy provision in palliative care settings in Australia, and findings had implications for the planning of community services overall. So, insight development was possible at an individual, group and organisational level, and inferences were made directly in relation to the parameters of that case study.

The addition of several carefully selected cases, as in multiple case studies, offers the opportunity to analyse data gained within and across cases ( Stake, 2006 ). Case selection may be made in order to explore similarities and contrasting perspectives ( Brogan et al., 2017 ), understand the various impacts of geographical differences ( Sussman et al., 2011 ), and different organisational influences ( Walshe et al., 2008 ). However, whilst repetition of data across cases may reinforce propositions made at the outset of a study, the purpose of increasing the number of cases in case study research is primarily about increasing insight development into the complexity of a phenomenon ( Stake, 2006 ). Since case study is the study of a boundaried phenomenon ( Yin, 2013 ), establishing the analytic frame then underpins the selection criteria for potentially useful cases. Such clarification is essential since it provides the lens through which to focus research ( Gerring, 2004 ; Scholz and Tietje, 2002 ; Stake, 2006 ) and permits key decisions to be made about data which may be included and that which is not applicable.

However, significantly, this information is rarely articulated within published case studies in palliative care. This is an important issue for the quality of case study research, since description of the process of refining case study parameters, establishing clear boundaries of the case, articulating propositions based on existing literature, identifying the sources of data (people, records, policies, etc.) and the ways in which data would be captured, establishes clarity and underpins a rigorous, systematic and comprehensive process ( Gibbert et al., 2008 ), which can usefully contribute to practice and policy development ( George and Bennett, 2005 ).

Shaped by organisational systems, intimate settings and significant life stage contexts, the interconnection between context and participant experience of palliative care is one example of a process of healthcare provision that is often complex, subtle and elusive ( Walshe et al., 2011 ). Case studies conducted in these swiftly changing contexts illustrate several characteristics of case study research, which make it an appropriate methodological option for nurse researchers, providing the opportunity for in-depth, contextualised understanding of the systems and processes which influence their role in palliative care delivery across settings ( Walshe et al., 2004 ) and many others who seek a contextualised, contemporaneous understanding of any complex role or process ( Yin, 2013 ; Simons, 2009 ). This fieldwork-based approach has the potential to achieve depth and breadth of insight through the pragmatic, but carefully planned and articulated, use of multiple methods of data collection in order to answer the research question ( Stake, 2006 ) when analysed systematically within a frame determined at the outset by the definition of the case and its boundaries ( Gerring, 2004 ). Yet, the methodological flexibility that is advantageous in complex contexts, may be misunderstood ( Hammersley, 2012 ), particularly where terminology is unclear ( Lather, 1996 ) or where description of the systematic and rigorous application of the approach is missing from the report ( Morrow, 2005 ). Taken as an example of one area of healthcare research, evidence suggests that palliative care studies that deal meaningfully with underpinning philosophical perspectives for their selected case study approach, or which articulate coherent links between the defined case, its boundaries and the analytical frame are rare. The impact of such omissions may be the perpetuation of confusion and out-dated perceptions about the personality and quality of case study research ( King et al., 1994 ), with implications for its wider adoption by nurses in healthcare research. Further training in case study methodology is required to promote philosophical and conceptual understanding, and to enable researchers to fully articulate, conduct and report case study, to underpin its credibility, relevance and future use ( Hammersley et al., 2000 ; Stake and Turnbull, 1982).

Key points for policy, practice and/or research

  • Case study is well suited to nursing research in palliative care contexts, where in-depth understanding of participant experience, complex systems and processes of care within changing contexts is needed.
  • Not bound to any single paradigm, nor defined by any methodology, case study’s pragmatism and flexibility makes it useful for studies in palliative care.
  • Training is needed in the underpinning philosophical and conceptual basis of case study methodology, in order to articulate, conduct and report credible case study research, and take advantage of the opportunities it offers for the conduct of palliative and end-of-life care research.

Paula Brogan is a Lecturer in counselling and communication in the School of Communication and Media, and was recently appointed as Faculty Partnership Manager, University of Ulster. Dual qualified as a Registered Nurse with specialism in District Nursing and as a Counsellor/couple psychotherapist (Reg MBACPaccred), she has over 30 years’ clinical practice experience in community palliative care nursing and the provision of psychological care to patients and families dealing with palliative and chronic illness. Having worked across statutory, voluntary and private sectors, her PhD focused on multi-disciplinary decision-making at the end of life with patients and families in the community setting. Currently secretary of the Palliative Care Research Forum for Northern Ireland (PCRFNI), Paula’s ongoing research interests include communication and co-constructed decision-making in palliative and chronic illness, and the psychological support of individuals, couples, patient-family groups and multi-disciplinary staff responding to challenges of advanced progressive illness.

Felicity Hasson is a Senior Lecturer in the Institute of Nursing Research at the University of Ulster with 20 years’ experience in research. A social researcher by background, she has extensive experience and knowledge of qualitative, quantitative and mixed method research and has been involved in numerous research studies in palliative and end-of-life care. She completed her MSc in 1996 and her PhD from University of Ulster in 2012. Felicity sits on the Council of Partners for the All Ireland Institute of Hospice and the Palliative Care Palliative Care Research Network (PCRN) and is an executive board member for the UK Palliative Care Research Society. She holds an editorial board position on Futures and Foresight Science. Felicity has an established publication track recorded and successful history of grant applications. Her research interests include nurse and assistant workforce, workforce training, palliative care and chronic illness (malignant and non-malignant with patients, families and multi-disciplinary health care professionals) and public awareness of palliative care and end of life issues.

Sonja McIlfatrick is a Professor in Nursing and Palliative Care and has recently been appointed as the Head of School of Nursing at University of Ulster. She is an experienced clinical academic with experience in nursing and palliative care practice, education and research. She previously worked as the Head of Research for the All Ireland Institute of Hospice and Palliative Care (2011-2014) and led the establishment of the All Ireland Palliative Care Research Network (PCRN) and is the current Chair of the Strategic Scientific Committee for the PCRN (AIIHPC). Sonja is an Executive Board member for the UK, Palliative Care Research Society and is member of the Research Scientific Advisory Committee for Marie Curie, UK. Sonja holds an Editorial Board position on the International Journal of Palliative Nursing and Journal of Research in Nursing. Professor McIlfatrick has published widely in academic and professional journals focused on palliative care research and has a successful history of grant acquisition. Sonja has a keen interest in doctoral education and is the current President of the International Network of Doctoral Education in Nursing (INDEN). Her research interests include, palliative care in chronic illness, decision making at end of life; public awareness of palliative care and psychosocial support for family caregivers affected by advanced disease.

Declaration of conflicting interests

The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

Ethics statement

Ethical permission was not required for this paper.

The author(s) received no financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

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See Judge Act

Origins, development and resources

1855: Frederic Le Play’s social observation method

Born in 1806,  Pierre Guillaume Frédéric Le Play  studied at the Ecole Polytechnique in Paris, where he became friends with Alphonse Gratry, who also came to play a major in the development of the See Judge Act.

For nearly a quarter of a century Le Play travelled around Europe, collecting a vast amount of material bearing on the social and economic condition of the working classes. In 1855, he published Les Ouvriers Européens , a series of 36 monographs on the budgets of typical families selected from a wide range of industries.

This work was crowned with the  Montyon prize  conferred by the Académie des Sciences. In 1856, Le Play founded the Société internationale des études pratiques d’économie sociale , which has devoted its energies principally to forwarding social studies on the lines laid down by its founder. The journal of the society, La Réforme Sociale, founded in 1881, was published fortnightly.

Through this research, Le Play developed what became known as his “method of social observation”, a systematic form of enquiry into the realities of life experienced by various population groups.

Frederic Le Play (Wikipedia) Frederic Le Play,  Directions for the Method of Observation called ‘Family Monographs’ (and suited to the study entitled, ‘European Workers’) (Paris: the Society, 1862)

Frédéric Le Play, Les ouvriers européens, Vol. 1

Instruction in the Observation of Social Facts According to the Le Play Method of Monographs on Familie s (March 1, 1897) (American Journal of Sociology)

Société internationale des études pratiques d’économie sociale (Wikipedia)

Theodore M. Porter, Reforming Vision: The Engineer Le Play Learns to Observe Society Sagely (History Dept, UCLA)

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An Exploration of the Case Study Methodological Approach through Research and Development

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This article is premised on the understanding that there are multiple dimensions of the case–theory relation and examines four of these: theory of the case, theory for the case, theory from the case, and a dialogical relation between theory and case. This fourth dimension is the article's key contribution to theorizing case study. Dialogic engagement between theory and case study creates rich potential for mutual formation and generative tension. The article argues that the process of constructing and conducting the case is theory laden, while the outcomes of the study might also have theoretical implications. Case study research that is contextually sensitive and theoretically astute can contribute not only to the application and revision of existing theory but also to the development of new theory. The case thus provides a potentially generative nexus for the engagement of theory, context, and research.

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Please note you do not have access to teaching notes, frédéric le play: a forefather of social economics.

International Journal of Social Economics

ISSN : 0306-8293

Article publication date: 1 October 1998

Presents Frédéric Le Play ‐ French author who lived in the nineteenth century ‐ as a precursor of social economics. In the first place, characterizes this perspective, which is critical of the classical theory. Analyses some of its postulates and reviews some examples of authors and schools sharing this approach. Situates Le Play’s thought in the context of the philosophical traditions of his epoch. Describes the elements in his works which are typical of the social economics currents: the examination of the relationships between economic and social phenomena; the introduction of institutional elements in the economic analysis; the rejection of the market’s “invisible hand” as a mechanism able to generate wellbeing for the entire society; the influence of traditional values and customs in the economic behaviour; and the inductive logic of his methodology. Discusses the suitability of Le Play’s ideas for the present time.

  • Empirical studies
  • Family life
  • Industrial relations

Forni, F.H. , Freytes Frey, A. and Quaranta, G. (1998), "Frédéric Le Play: a forefather of social economics", International Journal of Social Economics , Vol. 25 No. 9, pp. 1380-1397. https://doi.org/10.1108/03068299810213981

Copyright © 1998, MCB UP Limited

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Conducting Case Study Research in Sociology

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A case study is a research method that relies on a single case rather than a population or sample. When researchers focus on a single case, they can make detailed observations over a long period of time, something that cannot be done with large samples without costing a lot of money. Case studies are also useful in the early stages of research when the goal is to explore ideas, test, and perfect measurement instruments, and to prepare for a larger study. The case study research method is popular not just within ​the field of sociology, but also within the fields of anthropology, psychology, education, political science, clinical science, social work, and administrative science.

Overview of the Case Study Research Method

A case study is unique within the social sciences for its focus of study on a single entity, which can be a person, group or organization, event, action, or situation. It is also unique in that, as a focus of research, a case is chosen for specific reasons, rather than randomly , as is usually done when conducting empirical research. Often, when researchers use the case study method, they focus on a case that is exceptional in some way because it is possible to learn a lot about social relationships and social forces when studying those things that deviate from norms. In doing so, a researcher is often able, through their study, to test the validity of the social theory, or to create new theories using the grounded theory method .

The first case studies in the social sciences were likely conducted by Pierre Guillaume Frédéric Le Play, a 19th-century French sociologist and economist who studied family budgets. The method has been used in sociology, psychology, and anthropology since the early 20th century.

Within sociology, case studies are typically conducted with qualitative research methods . They are considered micro rather than macro in nature , and one cannot necessarily generalize the findings of a case study to other situations. However, this is not a limitation of the method, but a strength. Through a case study based on ethnographic observation and interviews, among other methods, sociologists can illuminate otherwise hard to see and understand social relations, structures, and processes. In doing so, the findings of case studies often stimulate further research.

Types and Forms of Case Studies

There are three primary types of case studies: key cases, outlier cases, and local knowledge cases.

  • Key cases are those which are chosen because the researcher has ​a particular interest in it or the circumstances surrounding it.
  • Outlier cases are those that are chosen because the case stands out from other events, organizations, or situations, for some reason, and social scientists recognize that we can learn a lot from those things that differ from the norm .
  • Finally, a researcher may decide to conduct a local knowledge case study when they already have amassed a usable amount of information about a given topic, person, organization, or event, and so is well-poised to conduct a study of it.

Within these types, a case study may take four different forms: illustrative, exploratory, cumulative, and critical.

  • Illustrative case studies are descriptive in nature and designed to shed light on a particular situation, set of circumstances, and the social relations and processes that are embedded in them. They are useful in bringing to light something about which most people are not aware of.
  • Exploratory case studies are also often known as pilot studies . This type of case study is typically used when a researcher wants to identify research questions and methods of study for a large, complex study. They are useful for clarifying the research process, which can help a researcher make the best use of time and resources in the larger study that will follow it.
  • Cumulative case studies are those in which a researcher pulls together already completed case studies on a particular topic. They are useful in helping researchers to make generalizations from studies that have something in common.
  • Critical instance case studies are conducted when a researcher wants to understand what happened with a unique event and/or to challenge commonly held assumptions about it that may be faulty due to a lack of critical understanding.

Whatever type and form of case study you decide to conduct, it's important to first identify the purpose, goals, and approach for conducting methodologically sound research.

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Theoretical Models, Case Studies and Simulation Games as Knowledge and Decision Tools

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  • Ariel Macaspac Hernandez 3  

Part of the book series: Globale Gesellschaft und internationale Beziehungen ((GGIB))

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The methodological challenges identified by this book reflect the limitations of or the constraints on the ontological conceptualization of transformation towards sustainability due to complexity and uncertainty. This complexity is exacerbated by the inevitable contextualization of sustainable, low-carbon transformation, where there is the need to find ways to assess and understand the political, economic, cultural, technological and environmental context from many analytical and governance levels, degrees and scales of causalities as well as making use of insights from these contexts to draw up lessons for others. The context, as reflected by socio-technical and socio-linguistic narratives, not only defines power relations between agents (e.g., between change agents and status quo agents), but also constitutes the audience as codified by social contracts.

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frederic le play case study method

Disruptive seeds: a scenario approach to explore power shifts in sustainability transformations

Lucas Rutting, Joost Vervoort, … Peter Driessen

frederic le play case study method

Designing “Integration Machines”

frederic le play case study method

New Humanism: A Vital Component of Sustainable Socio-technical Change

The historicity challenge of sustainable low carbon development is driven by the inherent connection of the past to the present and future. Because historical events are usually analyzed in retrospect and as ‘finished products,’ the empirical value of historical analyses is defined by what has already happened. For example, the life-course analysis focuses on the overlaps between individual experiences and those coincident in history within specific structural, social and social contexts (e.g., changes in government policy) (see Elder et al. 2003; White & Klein 2007; Mayer 2009). As such, questions that are formulated in historical analyses tend to depict closed processes.

As the theory of path dependence implies, decisions made in the past limit the set of possible present and future decisions (see David 1988; Arthur 1994). Therefore, analyzing the historical components of current and future policies, governance structures and human behavior can only be useful for the analysis of transformation processes when the relevance of these historical components to the present and the future can be established and understood. However, as it will be evident in the case study chapters in this book, arguments of historical inevitability based on formulating examples of historical contingency of how different choices could have led to different consequences may be misleading, because of the inability to test the occurrence of ‘alternative paths’. The comparison of a ‘real’ development with its version in an ‘alternate universe’ has limited empirical value due to its highly speculative character. Therefore, due to the historicity of case studies, interpretations of cause-and-effect relations can only be tentative, and they need to be regularly revisited and corrected.

While ‘learning from history’ is intuitively accepted, there are limitations to the significance of history for studying the present and the ‘futures,’ primarily because the ‘formalization’ of historical analyses constantly needs further development. Charles Tilly (1987) identifies deficits in formalization in historical analysis as important factors in understanding the limitations of the value of historical analyses. Formalization requires the conceptualization , measurement, modelling , and estimation of historical events. However, as Charles Tilly (1987 p. 20) further claims, formalizing historians have devoted little of their ingenuity to the statement of an historical question as a problem susceptible to a formal statement (conceptualization), to the organization of evidence in a standard, comparable form (measurement), to the formal statement of an argument concerning the expected pattern of a phenomenon (modelling), and to matching models to evidence in order to see how the model fits ( estimation ).

Scholars working on sustainable, low-carbon transformation will need to ensure such formalization, which will very likely require multi- and interdisciplinary approaches and expertise. For example, conceptualization is likely to be conducted by social scientists with comprehensive and integrated knowledge that would allow the establishment and validation of concepts, labels, terminologies, and notions. Conceptualization needs to identify and justify the boundaries and scopes of the subjects of the analyses. It will also need to accommodate competing historical narratives. In addition, measurement and modelling will require scholars with expertise to identify and filter relevant data and information. These scholars should be able to simplify a complex system without losing empirical relevance. Additional scholars are needed to calibrate models and connect them to empirical reality to make them useful for decision-making. The assessment of the value of these models is often defined by how they can help provide policy-makers with the capacity to justify decisions.

Also relevant to the methodological challenge brought by path dependent historicity is the plurality of historical explanations due to limitations on accessing all relevant information. As many of the decisions were made in closed-door meetings, the assessment (process-tracing) of these historical events is confronted by a plurality of possible explanations . These explanations can be regarded as storylines that are composed of arguments supporting cause-and-effect relationships. This plurality is likely to be reproduced when establishing narratives and enduring issues.

In addition, analyzing the ‘ Gestaltungsmacht ’ (shaping power) of historical events vis-à-vis the future is a contentious endeavor, particularly because of the need to clearly identify and trace the cause-and-effect relationships between factors and monitor the long-term developments that transcend spatial and temporal boundaries. Moreover, not only are there many ways of ‘packing’ a concert of historical events, there are also latent self-driving processes that can only be identified in retrospect, thus limiting the ability to predict the future. Another concern is that, particularly in sustainable, low-carbon transformations, there is not only one future caused by various possible concerts of historical events, but many futures that can be possibly caused by one or more concerts of historical events. Inserting the value of perspectives in the analysis brings the challenge that one future, say the sustainable, low-carbon transformation, cannot, under current conditions, be optimal for several actors, because they are confronted with other points of departure. As there can be more than one optimal future scenario, collaboration and coordination problems need to be resolved as forethoughts.

7.1 Scenarios as Methods of Analysis of Futures

The scientific literature on climate mitigation and low-carbon transformation relies heavily on the use of scenario methods. The complexity as well the temporal dimension of relevant processes and outcomes require decision-makers to use decision tools to structure decision-making. For example, the reduction of emissions will require years if not decades before substantial effects will be significant. As such, present decision-makers and their constituents will most likely not personally experience the outcomes of their decisions. Similarly, some positive effects might take place in other areas leading to these effects becoming intangible for those who would need to accept present burdens of actions. Nevertheless, as it is assumed that delaying decisions or even avoiding making decisions will lead to more ‘painful’ and, therefore, unacceptable costs, decisions are still to be made. Because decision outcomes can be theoretical at best, while actions are practical, tools are needed to bridge the gaps between these two analytical levels. Inevitably, decision-makers are required to formulate visions or goals that would frame decisions, or even set or change paradigms. Goals have a temporal dimension as they imply achieving a specific status in the future. Therefore, formulating policy goals will require tools that address the need to ‘prepare’ for the future.

Scenarios are constructed to investigate alternative future developments under a set of assumed or controlled conditions. Scenarios are instruments to help decision-makers cope with problem cases that are complex and uncertain. As Nick Hughes (2009) observes, recent years have seen a proliferation in the use of scenario methods to define low-carbon futures. ‘ Energy in a Finite World ’ of the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis is one of the first global studies that have used scenarios as a tool to assess future CO 2 emissions in the late 1970s (Häfele et al. 1981). The IPCC has used emissions and climate scenarios as a central component of its work as an institution that assesses climate change research. Working with authors and modelers, it has developed emission scenarios to be used for driving global circulation models to develop climate scenarios. The SA90 scenarios were introduced by Working Group 1 of the IPCC in 1990 (IPCC 1990).

Some questions that a scenario developer needs to address include how scenarios can provide insights not only into the integrated scope or description of the system being studied, but also how the system may have evolved into its current state and more importantly, how the system might continue to evolve, taking into consideration changing motivations and functionalities. What are the possible systemic effects of changes in the motivation and behavior of actors? This will most likely invoke the re-evaluation of various elements of the scenario, asking whether and how the actors could have decided to resolve these changes in a different manner. Asking these questions implies that scenarios have a normative undertone.

There are limitations on decisions based on scenarios. Scenarios often do not envisage changes in an actor’s preferences, as well as in relations between actors . Therefore, scenarios are often limited to providing insights on behavioral change and paradigm shifts that are highly valuable in any analysis of transformation processes. Because choices will depend on temporal and spatial circumstances, humans can change their decisions when circumstances change. As Michel Godet (2000) argues, humans can be both rational and driven by the emotional faculties. While scenarios are often not able to capture these changes, they are also often designed assuming the rationality of decisions and actions. In addition, as circumstances change, human interactions also change. Iterative actor interactions imply changing coalitions, behavior and identities. Scenarios, therefore, need to be complemented by tools that support the anticipation of changes in an actor’s preferences and relationships.

Furthermore, scenarios are often not able to properly address the dynamics of social, technological, and economic change . As social, technological, and economic changes unfold, new issues may arise, or old issues may gain a different meaning and significance, prompting the need to revise previous decisions. For example, the dynamics of change may imply a new importance on certain conflict cleavages that will touch on differences between actors in terms of their values and even ideologies. Because of this, the agreements and other outcomes of previously conducted bargaining games will require renegotiation and re-elaboration. In some cases, renegotiations will need to start by default. In other cases, particularly when the procedures of renegotiations were included in previous agreements, bargaining over new issues will be met by amendments or additional protocols to existing agreements.

One scenario is a collection of conditions and factors that jointly express a specific storyline . The storyline is heuristic in the sense that it employs an approach to problem-solving that does not guarantee or pursue ‘optimality.’ A scenario is an analytical instrument through which assumptions or ‘stories’ are made about the system under the conditions of limited knowledge and information. Therefore, a scenario inevitably pertains to a deviation from the ‘optimal solution’, as optimality presumes complete information. Nevertheless, it is not the objective of scenarios to present the optimal solution or the ‘perfect story’, but rather to look for a simple set of conditions sufficient to achieve immediate goals. This storyline serves as the structure in decision-making, limiting the number of possible decisions, thus, reducing indecisiveness. For example, the storyline of a scenario may highlight the necessity to adhere to human rights in present and future actions. It encourages decisions and actions by providing the scope of necessary actions and eliminating possible decisions and actions that do not correspond with the storyline. Nevertheless, the storyline, which is often a result of consensus-building processes, needs, as a normative approach, to be inclusive and should support the orchestration of various negotiation processes.

7.2 Theoretical Models and the ‘Ideal Type’—A New-Old Method of Analysis

An ideal type can be regarded as a distinct type of model or scenario. One major difference between an ideal type and a model or scenario lies in its methodological implication. When a model or scenario depicts a historical or trajectory-based process, as is the case with the low-carbon transformation of energy systems, an understanding of purposes and the related causal interdependencies becomes necessary. Can properly identified indicators be adequately measured and interpreted? Are the benchmarks being fulfilled in order to achieve the predetermined purposes as the process unfolds? Is there room for tolerance and the adjustment of targets? Are there relevant self-driving dynamics that need to be addressed? The usage of ideal types allows researchers to focus on the individuality of actors, structures, issues, processes, and outcomes, without undermining the scientific validity of the results of analyses. It allows the ‘systematic’ management of indicators and benchmarks.

The ‘ideal type’ is a typological term most closely associated with the sociologist Max Weber (1864–1920), in which Weber claimed a better understanding ( Verstehen ) of historical development through ideal types (Weber 1976, 1985). Georg Simmel (1858 to 1918), a contemporary of Weber’s, has adapted Weber’s line of thought and developed a similar term called “categories,” which are ideal types that not only serve as principles for constructing terms and concepts but as sources of theoretical knowledge (see Simmel 1908).

Similar to scenarios, ideal types can be identified as analytical instruments designed to strategically facilitate decision-making. Ideal types formulate hypotheses that are verifiable through the observation of empirical proceedings, providing resources for understanding patterns of actions, world views ( Weltbilder ), structural order and lines of development or trajectories. Ideal types are composed of basic concepts that define a “constructed world of ideas” or “idea constructs” ( Gedankenbilder ), with a distinct analytical functionality—to compare. Later, ideal types compel researchers to conduct a comparison between the constructed ideal type and the ‘historical case.’

The ideal type is a normative and heuristic model or scenario that does not need to emerge from the experiences of a successful case (e.g., developed countries). It does not need to include optimally technical solutions, because it can also refer to a case where conditions are merely tolerated for pragmatic reasons. As George Jellinek (1900) suggests, ideal types can only be manifested as incomplete as they disregard one or more parts of reality, limiting the complex characteristics of the case. The divergence between the ideal type and the historical case serves as leverage point for formulating questions and constituting explanations.

The primary value of ideal types is to enable the formulation of relevant research questions that do not claim the ability to reproduce reality or to predict the future. An ideal type is not the ‘perfect situation’ or the utopia. While some critics argue that the ideal type tends to focus on extreme phenomena and overlook the connections between them, the ideal type developer can be flexible in designing the ideal type. In this book, the ideal type of the transformation process has been aligned to the stages of the negotiation process and assumes the perspectives of collective decision-making. Nevertheless, ideal types should also allow the construction of simple concepts and fictional conceptual extremes ( Grenzbegriff ), which, however, can still occur in reality. Therefore, ideal types can contribute substantially when conceptualizing complex phenomena.

Ideal types are frequently also regarded as merely applying lessons from successful cases to less successful ones. European forms of democracy, governance, welfare systems and even climate protection schemes are frequently regarded as the end of the evolutionary process (Najam 2005; see Beyerlin 2006; Najam 2010), and this optimal stage is nothing else but the ideal type. This is, however, not how Max Weber and Georg Simmel define ideal types or categories. It is merely a methodological instrument of constructing ideas, a Gedankenexperiment . Moreover, as Alexis de Tocqueville (1856) stressed, although institutions or systems may be similar in some details, they cannot be reproduced as each system is unique. Therefore, borrowing lessons from one case to another, for example from a developed country to a developing country, will most likely involve incomplete information. Although there is still merit in looking at the evolutionary dimension of the development of developed countries, this is not the primary value of ideal types as depicted in this book.

7.3 Case Studies as Historical Analyses—The Value of Context

As a method of scientific inquiry and research, case studies have long assumed a well-established and prominent status in many academic disciplines (see McKeown 1999; Maiden 2004; George & Bennett 2007). While it is often thought that Frederic Le Play first introduced the case-study method into social science in 1829 (see Healy 1947), similar forms of case-study methods can be traced to earlier historical times, even to as early as Ancient Greece (see Lloyd 1992). Case study analysis involves a method that uses the up-close, in-depth, and detailed examination of an object of study (the case) in a specific spatial, temporal, cultural, social, political, and economic context. The usage of case studies in social science has often been chosen, particularly because of its descriptive value in explaining the outcomes or effects of variables. Nevertheless, the systematic further development of case study methods for the cumulative building of theories from various disciplines of social science is often neglected (see George & Bennett 2007).

A major point of debate on the viability or scientific validity of case study analyses as methods of scientific inquiry is the capability of formulating generalizations from single cases and applying these generalizations to other cases. Karl Popper (1959) has suggested the use of falsification or falsifiability , which forms part of critical reflexivity, as a test to determine the generalizability of the outcomes of case studies. He claimed that falsifiability defines the boundary between the scientific and unscientific, whereas that which is unfalsifiable is classified as unscientific. Based on this definition, the possibility that the outcomes of a case study are not applicable to other cases makes case study methods scientific.

7.3.1 Grasping Historicity and Plurality Through Case Studies—The Value of Perspectives in Knowledge Generation

What makes case studies interesting for this book is that it highlights the value of perspectives in generating, testing, re-testing, validating, rejecting and accepting knowledge. The use of perspectives in scientific inquiry ensures the acceptance of the pluralism of ideas, actions, normative systems and even of the concepts or understandings of fairness and justice. Such perspectives automatically provide a foundation for revisiting and the eventual modification of ontological concepts. While case study methods reiterate the uniqueness of each case, they are still able to identify and conceptualize patterns, as overlaps, cross-cuts and deviations contribute additional resources for further theory development.

Case studies of transformation processes highlight the relevance of historicity and plurality in understanding the process. Because each transformation process is unique, historicity can only be understood through the perspectives of actors, issues, and structures. Some scholars may even argue that when looking at the perspective of power (power-centric), interactions between actors can be explained and predicted. Perspectives can even define the sources and value of power. The case study approach takes a snapshot of a historical episode, assesses the interactions of various variables and comes up with historical explanations that can be used to explain other events, which could have happened in the past or the future as well as in other geographical areas.

As discussed in the introduction of this book, time is a central pillar in any transformation process. Case studies attempt to provide an account of relevant turning points, lock-ins, set-backs and leapfrogging moments that have occurred. A case study can only grasp one set of these events. Therefore, case studies are based on the presumption that there is a plurality of turning points, lock-ins, set-backs and leapfrogging moments, which are particularly dependent on perspectives. In order words, case studies most likely come from a specific perspective, depending on the preferences and purposes of the chosen actors and frameworks.

7.3.2 Procedures and the Design of Case Studies—The Role of Theoretical Models in Case Studies

The value of comparing case studies among themselves and comparing these case studies with theoretical models, here presented as ideal types, is measured by how these case studies and theoretical models complement each other and how differences can be understood and explained. In addition, the value of comparing case studies and ideal types can be measured by how complex contingent generalizations can be formulated to support decision-making.

In this book, looking for the evident complementarity of case studies and the ideal types will require the following assumptions:

Ideal types serving as formal models and scenarios have storylines and concepts that can be tested using the case studies.

Case studies examine how and why these cases overlap and/or deviate, while identifying the new variables or new interdependencies that are responsible for the deviance. As Alexander George and Andrew Bennett (2007) suggest, deviant or outlier cases may be particularly useful for heuristic purposes, as by definition their outcomes are not what traditional theories would anticipate. In addition, the ability to explain this deviance enriches theories, as they suggest new terrains that need to be further understood and explained.

Case studies evaluate the causal mechanisms behind the correlations or patterns between variables that have been assumed by current theories. Case studies provide a controlling mechanism to check whether correlations are spurious or potentially causal, adding insights into how causal mechanisms can be newly understood as well as how new variables or the refinement of concepts can be specified and operated.

To ensure coherence in the chapters on case studies, the following design and procedures will be implemented:

7.3.2.1 Problem and Objectives

Each case study of this book aims to introduce a selection of the most important subjects and objects of analysis that will be used to examine the specificities of the transformation process. While the subject of the case study refers to the promotion or obstruction of the low-carbon transformation process, the following will be taken as objects of the case study analysis:

Recent developments, particularly how the country refers to the Paris agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

The multiple entry points to SD, particularly climate mitigation and energy security

The multiple goal-setting of policies through different scales and levels

Challenges, barriers, trade-offs, caveats , gaps and risks

Opportunities, synergies, and co-benefits

System transition and/or transformation (multiple transitions) including socio-economic, cultural, technological, political, and demographic drivers and trends of change (e.g., GDP, population, migration, R&D)

Path dependence and lock-ins: infrastructure, governance, behavioral aspects

Enabling or hindering frameworks for behavioral and lifestyle change: policy instruments, non-mitigation policies, non-SD policies, state partnerships with private sector and civil society

International cooperation and institutions

Legitimacy: transparency, accountability and social inclusion in decision-making

Innovation and technology development, diffusion and transfer

The analysis of these subjects will allow the inductive identification of new variables, hypotheses, causal mechanisms and causal paths that are needed to be understood in order to correct the paths or benchmarks of low-carbon transformation. In addition, the discovery of potential causal relationships may initiate new methods of quantitative and qualitative measurement.

7.3.2.2 The Execution of the Case Studies

The execution of the case studies as methods of scientific inquiry will be conducted through the following steps:

The formulation of the chronological ‘narrative’ that defines each chapter

The identification and assessment of causal mechanisms through congruence methods and process-tracing

A deviation analysis between the empirical case studies and the ideal types

A Comparative analysis of two selected (country) case studies (where applicable)

For each chapter, accessible primary literature, secondary literature and interview data will be used to construct a chronological ‘narrative’ that will structure historical inquiry. Such an inquiry aims to establish the values of independent and dependent variables.

In addition, the case studies aim to highlight the causal mechanisms that are substantial in promoting or obstructing low-carbon transformation. Looking at particular cases, it is argued that such causal mechanisms can operate only under certain conditions and that their effects are highly contingent upon interactions between factors. As Alexander George and Andrew Bennett (2007) claim, a causal mechanism may be necessary, but is not sufficient, in an explanation. In other words, effects or occurrences are brought about by a set or bundle of factors and configurations of mechanisms, through which the behavior of actors is defined. Nevertheless, the same bundle may constitute other effects or even counteract the effects when transferred to another country or even region within the same country. Therefore, one causal mechanism will be compared with another case study in the chapter as well as compared with the theoretical model (ideal type) to analyze how a causal mechanism offsets other causalities in some contexts and complements them in others (see George & Bennett 2007).

7.3.2.3 Congruence Methods—The Role of Process Tracing

The relevant theories are summarized through the ideal types. Linking these theoretical models to the case studies is an attempt to assess the ability of these theories to explain or predict the occurrence of events or factors. As Alexander George and George Bennett (2007) suggest, if the outcome of the case studies is consistent with the predictions of the theories, then there is the possibility that a causal relationship exists. Overlaps and cross-cuts can explain the applicability of theories to realities. In cases of deviations, explanations will be sought for these deviations, and hypotheses will be formulated about how these deviations will need to expand the existing theories. In cases of both congruence and deviation, factors and theoretical reasons will be taken into consideration to address how the hypothesized causes may be amplified, diminished, delayed or sped up (e.g., the self-fulfilling prophecy).

The next step pertains to the assessment of the possible causal significance of congruity (see George & Bennett 2007), where two questions will be asked:

Is the consistency spurious or of possible causal significance?

Is the independent variable a necessary condition for the outcome of the dependent variable and how much explanatory or predictive power does it have?

As suggested by Alexander George and Andrew Bennett (2007), spuriousness occurs when the observed congruence of the cause C and effect E is artificial because both C and E are caused by some third factor Z.

figure a

Alternatively, the putative cause C lacks causal priority if C is necessary for E, but C is itself only an intervening variable wholly or largely caused by a necessary prior variable Z. In this instance, both Z and C are necessary for E, but C has no independent explanatory value. The comparability of these country cases will be supported by the general questions formulated that link these subjects of analysis (see above) to the low carbon transformation process. The outcomes of the case studies will be explained by referring to the theoretical models (ideal types). Deviations will then be highlighted while providing theoretical and empirical explanations for these deviations. In many cases, the theoretical framework provided by the ideal types will need to be broadened to capture the major aspects of the historical elements. This broadening defines the analytical value of these case studies by allowing typological theorization.

To summarize, process tracing is a method that motivates one to take equifinality into account. This refers to an openness to the possible feasibility of alternative paths through which the outcome could have occurred. In addition, process tracing supports the possibility of mapping out one or more potential causal paths that are consistent with the outcome. As other cases are identified and tested, new typologies can be developed, leading to the further development of existing theories.

7.3.3 Theory Testing and the Implications of Case Findings for Theory and Practice

An analysis through case studies pertains to the testing of deductive theories. Theory-testing aims to strengthen or reduce support for a theory, narrow or extend the scope conditions or parameters of a theory, or determine which of two or more theories can best explain a case, type or general phenomenon (George & Bennett 2007 p. 112). As theories are tested using the data and information from the case studies, this testing may lead to an assessment that existing theories are not able to provide the necessary framework of understanding. Therefore, case studies can also initiate an inductive process of theory generation.

An analysis of deviations from theoretical models (ideal types) can link the gaps between deductive and inductive processes. As case studies uncover new or omitted variables, self-driving dynamics, hypotheses, causal paths, causal mechanisms, types of interaction, and network effects, the historical explanation that has been supported by existing theories can be improved upon (see George & Bennett 2007). This improvement highlights previously overlooked variables. In some cases, some of these new factors can be a highly significant factor that delays or obstructs the transformation process.

Developing or expanding upon existing theories through the analysis of case studies is an inductive process. Single case studies can produce observations that can initiate further questions, detect patterns (which can be supported by additional case studies as well as by other forms of scientific inquiry such as experiments), and hypothesize on tentative explanations of these observations. Hypothesizing can include distinguishing the subclasses or subtypes of existing typologies. In addition, ‘concatenated’ theories can be developed by dividing complex causal processes into specific component theories, or sequential stages, phases or episodes, as well by as focusing on the perspectives of identified actors (see George & Bennett 2007). For example, by focusing on actors’ behavior and how it changes as the process unfolds will provide important insights into sequential stages and typical interactions and dynamics within a specific stage or episode.

As the deviance between the theoretical model and the case studies becomes clear and eventually leads to the specification of a new theory, generalizations can be achieved as to how the newly identified mechanism may play out in different contexts and how this new mechanism can be relevant in managing processes (George & Bennett 2007 p. 112).

7.4 Role-Play Simulation

Simulation as a method of scientific inquiry gained popularity in the 1990s as computer simulations were used to simplify and mimic complex systems. Considered the third pillar of empirical research, along with experiment and theory (see Drösser 1994), simulations are recognized as allowing the manipulation of complex systems that would be impossible, too costly or unethical to do so in natural systems (Peck 2004). Simulation can add to theory development and testing, can assist in formulating hypotheses and can limit the scope of which data are most important to gather (see Peck 2004; Gilbert & Troitzsch 2005).

This book does not intend to do computer simulations, but rather a so-called ‘role-play’ simulation. Particularly because this book highlights the aspects pertaining to functional, institutional, and bargaining interactions, a simulation was conducted using the role-pay format, where the participants were brought together to mimic interactions under conditions and parameters set by the game designer. For simplicity, when referring to simulations in this book, role-play simulations will be meant. In this book, more than 15 postgraduate students from the University of Technology in Kingston, Jamaica, participated in a role-play simulation. While the main goal of the simulation was educational, the role-play simulation was also designed to provide useful empirical insights into the analysis of sustainable, low-carbon transformation.

7.4.1 The Scientific Value of Role-Play Simulations

While the pedagogical value of role-play simulations in the classroom is less contentious, the value of the results from these games to scholarly research may require further discussion, if not further convincing of their scientific value. The engagement students as subject groups or ‘human guinea pigs’ may be perceived as self-serving and drawing empirical evidence from these games may be limited. Furthermore, most of the simulation games used in classes of international relations and political sciences depict complex cases such as climate change negotiations, where negotiators are required to have extensive institutional memory and technical expertise. While role-play simulations will mostly run for mere hours, these real-life negotiations occur for a longer period of time, with several preparatory meetings and consultations.

Nevertheless, the limitations of the empirical value of role-play simulations are not limitations per se , because there are distinct expectations and none of these expectations is to reproduce reality. Like computer simulations and models, role-play simulations aim to look at specific aspects of negotiations. Variables and parameters are adjusted to look at how processes are affected by such changes. In addition, particularly for this book, role-play simulations are used to identify interesting impulses that will then become subjects of further scientific inquiries. Moreover, some events in the role-play simulations are compared to the real-world and some theories and empirical statistics are drawn to explain differences. These explanations will inevitably test the relevance of existing theories and suggest improvement or even encourage the development of new hypotheses for further research. Therefore, in any case, role-play simulations can in actuality promote further theory development.

The purpose of conducting simulations as a method of scientific inquiry is to introduce the possibility of a new way of thinking about social processes that is difficult to understand through text books (Penetrante 2012). Based on ideas about the emergence of the complex mechanisms of interactions between actors, a holistic and meta-level analysis is made possible. Because simulation is akin to an experimental methodology, simulation can be executed many times to draw conclusions through analogies (Müller 1998). The variation of conditions through the researcher allows the exploration of the several effects of different parameters (Gilbert & Troitzsch 2005 p. 14).

7.4.2 The Procedures and Design of the Role-Play Simulation

This book puts forward the procedures and design of role-play simulations that highlight the process and negotiation outlooks on a complex system. As mentioned earlier, in role-play simulations, such as those conducted in this book, the dynamics of functional, institutional, persuasive and bargaining interactions initially depend on the parameters preconditioned by the researcher, who will define the initial point of behavior, based on assumptions made prior to the game. These assumptions are to be clearly communicated to allow the participants to understand the scope of the issues that are relevant to the game.

These assumptions can be formulated through the following steps:

First, the role-play designer chooses an aspect of a complex system . For example, in chapter  12 , a cabinet meeting of the Jamaican national government on budget-planning under the conditions set by the International Monetary Fund.

Second, the role-play designer identifies the problems and challenges he or she wants to be understood through the game . The problems and challenges will define the agenda of the role-play game and will limit the scope of parameters. A game can be limited to a single problem. In chapter  12 , the difficulty of consensus-building in achieving the budget plan will be presented as the over-arching problem. In this game, the agenda becomes clear, which helps structure the discussions of the participants. In addition, a game can also highlight several problems and challenges. Here, more than one problem was introduced, and these need to be resolved in parallel, in conjunction or in a specific order by the participants. In addition, each interacting participant has a different set of problems and challenges, where resolving them requires cooperation with other participants who may not have the same set of problems.

Third, questions need to be formulated that will identify the parameters that will be manipulated . For example, in chapter  12 , one question refers to the effects of gender. In one group, all the members were females, in another all male, and in the other mixed. In addition, the parameters can be addressed by introducing control and experimental groups to allow direct comparisons.

Fourth, the profiles of participants need to be prepared and distributed among the participants before the games . These profiles need to include brief background information about the positions and interests of the country. These positions and interests are to be concretized in specific numbers (e.g., 20 million US dollars as compensation; or maximum 10 percent in GHG emissions by 2030). Each profile also needs to clarify the limitations of the negotiators. For example, a ‘toxic’ issue can be identified, where negotiators would need to walk away if this issue is involved. The profiles also include some instructions or recommendations as to how they should behave at the bargaining table: competitive, collaborative, avoidant, cooperative, emotional, arrogant, etc. to highlight the human factor at negotiations.

Fifth, the role-play designer needs to plan the departure point of the game . It may include requiring all participants to give a brief (ministerial) statement in a plenary session or to instruct each participant which bilateral or mini-lateral meeting he or she needs to prioritize first. These brief ministerial statements allow the participants to have an overview of potential partners and adversaries. This ‘departure point’ also serves as an ‘ice-breaker’, as participants will eventually ‘warm up’ during the game.

Sixth, some flexibility and creativity should be encouraged in the game to allow the participants to come up with innovative and out-of-the-box solutions . Furthermore, some provisions should be made leading to changes, for example, in the power or interests of one or more participants. In addition, while the simulation is running, the participants may choose to follow instructions and adapt to these parameters and frameworks, basing their decisions on certain rationalities and criteria. With the researcher intentionally changing the parameters and frameworks as the game unfolds, the effects of such changes should be observed, documented and discussed during debriefings. These observations would generate (simulated) data, which can be later compared to the data produced by other methodologies outside of the simulation (Penetrante 2012).

Seventh, the results of the role-play should be clear and concrete , such as forging an agreement with one or more counterparts, or ‘sabotaging’ and ‘stalling’ the negotiations. This allows closure in the game. Furthermore, the role-play designer needs to carefully plan the evaluation discussion and debriefing to encourage the participants to reflect on what they have experienced. The participants should also be asked about their feelings during the game, whether their expectations are met, whether they would like to change something about how they negotiated were they given the chance, or what struck them most during the game. Also, technical and logistical questions about the game should be encouraged. Are there some shortcomings in the game and whether there are things they would like to change about how the game was designed and conducted?

Eighth (and finally), participants should be given a questionnaire or a written task that they need to do in few days after the experience has sunk in . It should be submitted no longer than a week after the game. This questionnaire with both open and closed questions could include questions that can be useful for the researcher when assessing the empirical value of the results.

7.5 Interim Conclusion: Bridging Gaps Between Theory and Practice Through Knowledge and Decision Tools

The knowledge and decisions tools introduced in this chapter can be particularly helpful in identifying and assessing obvious and latent stumbling blocks to effective collective decision-making. These tools can also provide impulses for how these stumbling blocks can be addressed to allow actors to cope with them. Major challenges and barriers to low-carbon system transformation are diverse. The first step of bridging the gaps between theory and practice is to ensure the fluidity of the relationship between the two. Theory generation should be dynamic, as reality becomes more complex with the emergence of new issues that require multi- and interdisciplinary as well as an integrated outlook to grasp their essence and meaning. As challenges and barriers are identified by policy-makers (covered here by the case studies) and academes (covered by the theoretical models), their perspectives combine, and new insights can be found that can allow more effective measures to facilitate the transformation process.

It is the aim of this book that the theoretical models (ideal types), case studies and the role-play simulations will contribute to an understanding of how gaps between theory and practice can be bridged. The case studies and role-play simulations will be conducted to understand how low-carbon transformation processes can be facilitated. What kind of theoretical and practical knowledge is needed by decision-makers for dealing with challenges, risks, caveats and barriers related to sustainable, low-carbon transformation? How can these case studies and role-play simulations contribute to the establishment of general, conceptual models that can be helpful in designing and implementing policy instruments?

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Hernandez, A.M. (2021). Theoretical Models, Case Studies and Simulation Games as Knowledge and Decision Tools. In: Taming the Big Green Elephant. Globale Gesellschaft und internationale Beziehungen. Springer VS, Wiesbaden. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-31821-5_7

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